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	<title>Comments on: Who is going to lose from this crisis?</title>
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		<title>By: Per Kurowski</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/10/12/who-is-going-to-lose-from-this-crisis/#comment-6991</link>
		<dc:creator>Per Kurowski</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Dec 2008 18:31:52 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Talking about movies... at least listen to the Joker before giving more powers to the schemers 
 
I can hear the free market answering a confounded citizen by describing the bank regulators with the same words the Joker used in the movie The Dark Knight, 2008. &quot;You know, they&#039;re schemers. Schemers trying to control their worlds. I&#039;m not a schemer. I try to show the schemers how pathetic their attempts to control things really are. So, when I say that &#8230; was nothing personal, you know that I&#039;m telling the truth. It&#039;s the schemers that put you where you are. I just did what I do best. I took your little plan and I turned it on itself. Look what I did to this city with a few&#8230;&quot; collateralized debt obligations. 
 
When I think of a small group of bureaucratic finance nerds in Basel thinking themselves capable of exorcizing risks out of banking, for ever, by cooking up a formula of minimum capital requirements for banks based on some vaguely defined risks of default; and thereafter creating a risk information oligopoly by empowering the credit rating agencies, which was all doomed, sooner or later, to guide the world over a precipice of systemic risks, like what happened with the lousily awarded mortgages to the subprime sector, I cannot but feel deep concern when I hear about giving even more powers to the schemers. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Talking about movies&#8230; at least listen to the Joker before giving more powers to the schemers </p>
<p>I can hear the free market answering a confounded citizen by describing the bank regulators with the same words the Joker used in the movie The Dark Knight, 2008. &quot;You know, they&#039;re schemers. Schemers trying to control their worlds. I&#039;m not a schemer. I try to show the schemers how pathetic their attempts to control things really are. So, when I say that &hellip; was nothing personal, you know that I&#039;m telling the truth. It&#039;s the schemers that put you where you are. I just did what I do best. I took your little plan and I turned it on itself. Look what I did to this city with a few&hellip;&quot; collateralized debt obligations. </p>
<p>When I think of a small group of bureaucratic finance nerds in Basel thinking themselves capable of exorcizing risks out of banking, for ever, by cooking up a formula of minimum capital requirements for banks based on some vaguely defined risks of default; and thereafter creating a risk information oligopoly by empowering the credit rating agencies, which was all doomed, sooner or later, to guide the world over a precipice of systemic risks, like what happened with the lousily awarded mortgages to the subprime sector, I cannot but feel deep concern when I hear about giving even more powers to the schemers.</p>
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		<title>By: John</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/10/12/who-is-going-to-lose-from-this-crisis/#comment-6990</link>
		<dc:creator>John</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Dec 2008 16:00:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1774#comment-6990</guid>
		<description>Just watched a movie called &quot;Zeitgeist&quot;. Not sure if what was in the movie is all true but it got me thinking. Maybe this crisis was created so banks start borrowing money from central banks (at interest). Since we (the normal people) are struggling we would need to borrow more money (at interest) to just survive. At the end of the day banks make money and we end up paying debts till the rest of our days (in some cases our children will have to pay those debts). Sounds like a food chain and we are at the bottom of it. One thing I am sure about. When companies go bust, there will always be someone out there that will buy them paying almost nothing and will make a fortune later. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just watched a movie called &quot;Zeitgeist&quot;. Not sure if what was in the movie is all true but it got me thinking. Maybe this crisis was created so banks start borrowing money from central banks (at interest). Since we (the normal people) are struggling we would need to borrow more money (at interest) to just survive. At the end of the day banks make money and we end up paying debts till the rest of our days (in some cases our children will have to pay those debts). Sounds like a food chain and we are at the bottom of it. One thing I am sure about. When companies go bust, there will always be someone out there that will buy them paying almost nothing and will make a fortune later.</p>
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		<title>By: rugfish</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/10/12/who-is-going-to-lose-from-this-crisis/#comment-6989</link>
		<dc:creator>rugfish</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Oct 2008 09:30:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1774#comment-6989</guid>
		<description>JR - &quot;Who is going to lose from this crisis&quot;? 
 
In a word, us. 
 
Who is going to win from this crisis ? 
 
Them and us and Labour by the looks of it. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>JR &#8211; &quot;Who is going to lose from this crisis&quot;? </p>
<p>In a word, us. </p>
<p>Who is going to win from this crisis ? </p>
<p>Them and us and Labour by the looks of it.</p>
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		<title>By: StevenL</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/10/12/who-is-going-to-lose-from-this-crisis/#comment-6988</link>
		<dc:creator>StevenL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Oct 2008 00:57:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1774#comment-6988</guid>
		<description>&quot;Am I alone in noticing this completely naked usurpation of power by the government?&quot; 
 
No, your not alone.  &quot;Price conditioning&quot; is a tactic normally used by timeshare, double glazing and kitchen salesmen.  The first figures they mention, or quote you, are well in excess of what they want to charge you.  Makes the price seem lower.  It&#039;s haggling basically, in a lot of parts of the world it&#039;s the usual way people buy and sell things, but it scares the hell out of Western consumers. 
 
We&#039;ve been sucessfully &#039;price conditioned&#039; if you ask me.  They started off talking about a few billion here in writedowns, and a few billion there. 
 
We&#039;re now so used to these mind boggling figures being banded about that no-one bats an eyelid at a &#163;500 billion &#039;bailout&#039;, &#039;investment&#039; or bet as I would suggest it would be more accurately defined as. 
 
It&#039;s the same with the severity angle.  Hardly anyone noticed the first bite of the credit crunch last August, most people shrugged it off in fact.  Now the talks all about meltdown and depression everyone is scared enough to go for it. 
 
It might work, maybe it is a good idea, who knows, but you&#039;re right to say it has all the classic hallmarks of an elaborate scam. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&quot;Am I alone in noticing this completely naked usurpation of power by the government?&quot; </p>
<p>No, your not alone.  &quot;Price conditioning&quot; is a tactic normally used by timeshare, double glazing and kitchen salesmen.  The first figures they mention, or quote you, are well in excess of what they want to charge you.  Makes the price seem lower.  It&#039;s haggling basically, in a lot of parts of the world it&#039;s the usual way people buy and sell things, but it scares the hell out of Western consumers. </p>
<p>We&#039;ve been sucessfully &#039;price conditioned&#039; if you ask me.  They started off talking about a few billion here in writedowns, and a few billion there. </p>
<p>We&#039;re now so used to these mind boggling figures being banded about that no-one bats an eyelid at a &pound;500 billion &#039;bailout&#039;, &#039;investment&#039; or bet as I would suggest it would be more accurately defined as. </p>
<p>It&#039;s the same with the severity angle.  Hardly anyone noticed the first bite of the credit crunch last August, most people shrugged it off in fact.  Now the talks all about meltdown and depression everyone is scared enough to go for it. </p>
<p>It might work, maybe it is a good idea, who knows, but you&#039;re right to say it has all the classic hallmarks of an elaborate scam.</p>
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		<title>By: StevenL</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/10/12/who-is-going-to-lose-from-this-crisis/#comment-6987</link>
		<dc:creator>StevenL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Oct 2008 00:49:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1774#comment-6987</guid>
		<description>&quot;Excess credit led to soaring house, , property, commodity and other prices.&quot; (JR) 
 
In other words, printing money causes inflation.  Now that the banks have stopped the easy credit binge and are more intent on saving their money, what do they politicians do? 
 
Pander to the homeowners and risk &#163;billions trying to make them print more money. 
 
House prices, our currency and commodities prices are falling to more sensible levels.  Yes, it&#039;s going to hurt, but just printing more money will only change things if the entire Western world prints enough (and the politics allow) a hyperinflationary price/wage spiral. 
 
In my mind it&#039;s one or the other, debt deflation and a time of unemployment and hardship or inflation and uncertain consequences that could get completely out of control. 
 
There&#039;s no easy way out of this, the fundamentals all point in the direction of the &#039;good&#039; times being over.  It still surprises me the amount of people who think that &#039;things will get back to normal soon&#039;.  When you question them on what &#039;normal&#039; is, it turns out they believe house prices rising at 20% per annum is &#039;normal&#039; in their minds. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&quot;Excess credit led to soaring house, , property, commodity and other prices.&quot; (JR) </p>
<p>In other words, printing money causes inflation.  Now that the banks have stopped the easy credit binge and are more intent on saving their money, what do they politicians do? </p>
<p>Pander to the homeowners and risk &pound;billions trying to make them print more money. </p>
<p>House prices, our currency and commodities prices are falling to more sensible levels.  Yes, it&#039;s going to hurt, but just printing more money will only change things if the entire Western world prints enough (and the politics allow) a hyperinflationary price/wage spiral. </p>
<p>In my mind it&#039;s one or the other, debt deflation and a time of unemployment and hardship or inflation and uncertain consequences that could get completely out of control. </p>
<p>There&#039;s no easy way out of this, the fundamentals all point in the direction of the &#039;good&#039; times being over.  It still surprises me the amount of people who think that &#039;things will get back to normal soon&#039;.  When you question them on what &#039;normal&#039; is, it turns out they believe house prices rising at 20% per annum is &#039;normal&#039; in their minds.</p>
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		<title>By: Tony Makara</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/10/12/who-is-going-to-lose-from-this-crisis/#comment-6986</link>
		<dc:creator>Tony Makara</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Oct 2008 22:52:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1774#comment-6986</guid>
		<description>DWL, with due respects, extending lending has hardly been a success, as recent events have demonstrated. The flow of credit will be far easier to monitor if the number of lenders are reduced, liquidity too would be more balanced. The fact that so many have been able to borrow so easily from so many lenders has created a breakdown in the system with even the professionals unsure how much toxic debt there is. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>DWL, with due respects, extending lending has hardly been a success, as recent events have demonstrated. The flow of credit will be far easier to monitor if the number of lenders are reduced, liquidity too would be more balanced. The fact that so many have been able to borrow so easily from so many lenders has created a breakdown in the system with even the professionals unsure how much toxic debt there is.</p>
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		<title>By: Vaughan</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/10/12/who-is-going-to-lose-from-this-crisis/#comment-6985</link>
		<dc:creator>Vaughan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Oct 2008 21:56:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1774#comment-6985</guid>
		<description>As far as I can tell this whole thing has come about through Clintonomics essentially continued by Bush and adopted with vigour by Bliar/Brown with a particularly British socialist twist. The deal between the politicians and finance has been cynical in the extreme and the bubble has enabled Brown to tax and redistribute in a most destructive manner. They came in as a con - trick primed to break up our society and institutions and deliver us to a  federal Europe and worse.The only hope I have is that the  current disaster will move us away from this outcome to a more independent position although this is perhaps a forlorn hope. &#039;Europe&#039;  will use this crisis to it&#039;s advantage and so far our (word left out) PM has visibly enjoyed it. (Sentence left out) He has known exactly what he has been doing,adoption of CPI , gold, dividend tax credits,  stamp duty etc never mind the social engineering. It&#039;s just that he never thought it would bust like this.Murdoch Press, BBC, the awful thing is you have known what you have been doing. 
God help us. 
 
p.s. If Cameron had been honest about the economic/tax position even 12 months ago instead of playing a political game he wouldn&#039;t be looking (weak -ed) and Brown wouldn&#039;t have his event. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As far as I can tell this whole thing has come about through Clintonomics essentially continued by Bush and adopted with vigour by Bliar/Brown with a particularly British socialist twist. The deal between the politicians and finance has been cynical in the extreme and the bubble has enabled Brown to tax and redistribute in a most destructive manner. They came in as a con &#8211; trick primed to break up our society and institutions and deliver us to a  federal Europe and worse.The only hope I have is that the  current disaster will move us away from this outcome to a more independent position although this is perhaps a forlorn hope. &#039;Europe&#039;  will use this crisis to it&#039;s advantage and so far our (word left out) PM has visibly enjoyed it. (Sentence left out) He has known exactly what he has been doing,adoption of CPI , gold, dividend tax credits,  stamp duty etc never mind the social engineering. It&#039;s just that he never thought it would bust like this.Murdoch Press, BBC, the awful thing is you have known what you have been doing.<br />
God help us. </p>
<p>p.s. If Cameron had been honest about the economic/tax position even 12 months ago instead of playing a political game he wouldn&#039;t be looking (weak -ed) and Brown wouldn&#039;t have his event.</p>
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		<title>By: Jonathan Bryce</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/10/12/who-is-going-to-lose-from-this-crisis/#comment-6984</link>
		<dc:creator>Jonathan Bryce</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Oct 2008 21:12:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1774#comment-6984</guid>
		<description>As far as the crash goes, I don&#039;t think we really have a choice in the matter.  The wealth that is being &quot;destroyed&quot; is wealth that was created on way or another on the back of the idea that house prices only ever go up, and that some greater fool will be prepared buy the house off you for more than you paid for it. 
 
That wealth consists of the houses themselves, the mortgages secured on them, the mortgage backed securities created on the back of the mortgages and all the various other derivatives created out of them. 
 
It also includes all the property developers who were building flats that nobody actually wants to live in, but were sold to investors, and all the supporting industries around them. 
 
None of this &quot;wealth&quot; actually was worth anything.  All that happened is that people have now realised it isn&#039;t worth anything, and they aren&#039;t prepared to pay anything for it. 
 
As for what the government is doing at the moment, I can&#039;t think of any other policies that would work better, but I don&#039;t think what they are doing this weekend will solve the problem and enable us to continue as if nothing had happened.  It looks like this is just the beginning of the crisis. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As far as the crash goes, I don&#039;t think we really have a choice in the matter.  The wealth that is being &quot;destroyed&quot; is wealth that was created on way or another on the back of the idea that house prices only ever go up, and that some greater fool will be prepared buy the house off you for more than you paid for it. </p>
<p>That wealth consists of the houses themselves, the mortgages secured on them, the mortgage backed securities created on the back of the mortgages and all the various other derivatives created out of them. </p>
<p>It also includes all the property developers who were building flats that nobody actually wants to live in, but were sold to investors, and all the supporting industries around them. </p>
<p>None of this &quot;wealth&quot; actually was worth anything.  All that happened is that people have now realised it isn&#039;t worth anything, and they aren&#039;t prepared to pay anything for it. </p>
<p>As for what the government is doing at the moment, I can&#039;t think of any other policies that would work better, but I don&#039;t think what they are doing this weekend will solve the problem and enable us to continue as if nothing had happened.  It looks like this is just the beginning of the crisis.</p>
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		<title>By: Brian Tomkinson</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/10/12/who-is-going-to-lose-from-this-crisis/#comment-6983</link>
		<dc:creator>Brian Tomkinson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Oct 2008 19:22:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1774#comment-6983</guid>
		<description>John, 
Thank you for replying and forgive me if I sound churlish, but are you actually saying that this severe crisis has all been caused purely by a failure of central banks&#039; interest rate policy? Is it really as simple as that? Who controls the central banks? I am also unclear as to the thinking behind your assertion that the authorities want this crash. Why do they want a crash and who are the likely beneficiaries of this turmoil who presumably encouraged the authorities to create this mayhem? 
 
Reply: No I am not saying the authorities want this crash - they did want to cut the rate of private sector lending/indebtedness. NO it&#039;s not all caused by Central banks, but it was easy money central banking which allowed the bankers to behave as they did in the good days, and it is tight money central banking which started the unwinding. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>John,<br />
Thank you for replying and forgive me if I sound churlish, but are you actually saying that this severe crisis has all been caused purely by a failure of central banks&#039; interest rate policy? Is it really as simple as that? Who controls the central banks? I am also unclear as to the thinking behind your assertion that the authorities want this crash. Why do they want a crash and who are the likely beneficiaries of this turmoil who presumably encouraged the authorities to create this mayhem? </p>
<p>Reply: No I am not saying the authorities want this crash &#8211; they did want to cut the rate of private sector lending/indebtedness. NO it&#039;s not all caused by Central banks, but it was easy money central banking which allowed the bankers to behave as they did in the good days, and it is tight money central banking which started the unwinding.</p>
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		<title>By: FatBigot</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/10/12/who-is-going-to-lose-from-this-crisis/#comment-6982</link>
		<dc:creator>FatBigot</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Oct 2008 19:02:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1774#comment-6982</guid>
		<description>It seems to me that there are two elements to the problem of excessive credit. 
 
One is the unexploded bomb of bad debt.  It will explode at some stage; maybe in a series of small pops, maybe as a single huge bang.  If the former it is manageable, if the latter it could bring down a bank.  Because no one knows when or how the explosion(s) will occur it is hardly surprising that lending to banks has frozen.  The guarantees offered by the government seem a sensible way to ameliorate this problem, particularly because all the bad mortgage loans can only suffer a partial loss - many will be repaid anyway and those that default still have a house or flat as security which will give a substantial return of capital. 
 
The other problem is the credit bubble of unsecured lending, including such things as car loans, borrowing on credit cards and unsecured overdrafts.  Although the individual transactions are smaller than mortgage loans there are vast numbers of them, many in amounts too small for it to be economic for the banks to sue.  Even a short and shallow recession can give rise to very substantial losses. 
 
Restoring lines of credit for sound borrowers will not make the bad debts go away although it can  produce new profits to cushion the blow.  I doubt that any steps taken by government can do more than help to re-start modest levels of lending.  If the main players in the business are not prepared to wait for bad debts to work their way through the system there is nothing government can do to change that. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It seems to me that there are two elements to the problem of excessive credit. </p>
<p>One is the unexploded bomb of bad debt.  It will explode at some stage; maybe in a series of small pops, maybe as a single huge bang.  If the former it is manageable, if the latter it could bring down a bank.  Because no one knows when or how the explosion(s) will occur it is hardly surprising that lending to banks has frozen.  The guarantees offered by the government seem a sensible way to ameliorate this problem, particularly because all the bad mortgage loans can only suffer a partial loss &#8211; many will be repaid anyway and those that default still have a house or flat as security which will give a substantial return of capital. </p>
<p>The other problem is the credit bubble of unsecured lending, including such things as car loans, borrowing on credit cards and unsecured overdrafts.  Although the individual transactions are smaller than mortgage loans there are vast numbers of them, many in amounts too small for it to be economic for the banks to sue.  Even a short and shallow recession can give rise to very substantial losses. </p>
<p>Restoring lines of credit for sound borrowers will not make the bad debts go away although it can  produce new profits to cushion the blow.  I doubt that any steps taken by government can do more than help to re-start modest levels of lending.  If the main players in the business are not prepared to wait for bad debts to work their way through the system there is nothing government can do to change that.</p>
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