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	<title>Comments on: Government in debt &#8211; now at £1.8 trillion</title>
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	<description>Incisive and topical campaigns and commentary on today&#039;s issues and tomorrow&#039;s problems</description>
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		<title>By: nabidana.com &#187; The BBC is smearing Cameron and Osborne</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/10/21/government-in-debt-now-at-18-trillion/#comment-7262</link>
		<dc:creator>nabidana.com &#187; The BBC is smearing Cameron and Osborne</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Oct 2008 22:24:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1862#comment-7262</guid>
		<description>[...] his embarrassingly toadying piece on Nat Rotshchild&#8217;s hissy fit.  Wasn&#8217;t there any news about Economics for the BBC&#8217;s Economics Editor to cover today?  Nothing about [...] </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] his embarrassingly toadying piece on Nat Rotshchild&#8217;s hissy fit.  Wasn&#8217;t there any news about Economics for the BBC&#8217;s Economics Editor to cover today?  Nothing about [...] </p>
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		<title>By: mikestallard</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/10/21/government-in-debt-now-at-18-trillion/#comment-7261</link>
		<dc:creator>mikestallard</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Oct 2008 19:43:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1862#comment-7261</guid>
		<description>On Newsnight last night, it was very plain that the government actually believes its own (fiddled and incomplete) figures for the national debt. 
I noticed, with Yvette Cooper, too, that she was belittling the debt a couple of nights ago. 
It was so rewarding to have an adult discussion on Newsnight between the two of you. 
And it is very refreshing to see, from the thread above, that at long last we are waking up to the dangers of spending our way out of a massive debt. 
You just cannot do it. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On Newsnight last night, it was very plain that the government actually believes its own (fiddled and incomplete) figures for the national debt.<br />
I noticed, with Yvette Cooper, too, that she was belittling the debt a couple of nights ago.<br />
It was so rewarding to have an adult discussion on Newsnight between the two of you.<br />
And it is very refreshing to see, from the thread above, that at long last we are waking up to the dangers of spending our way out of a massive debt.<br />
You just cannot do it. </p>
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		<title>By: Acorn</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/10/21/government-in-debt-now-at-18-trillion/#comment-7260</link>
		<dc:creator>Acorn</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Oct 2008 16:29:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1862#comment-7260</guid>
		<description>crown; the CIA World Fact Book is a useful source for comparison between countries.  It may not tell the whole story but they are compiled to the same set of rules.  Thus Egypt has a 105% public debt ratio compared to the UK at 43.6%.  The following link with put you at the Field listing - Public dept.  You can click on items to get the definition and put the item in country rank order.  Have fun. 
  &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2186.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worl...&lt;/a&gt; </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>crown; the CIA World Fact Book is a useful source for comparison between countries.  It may not tell the whole story but they are compiled to the same set of rules.  Thus Egypt has a 105% public debt ratio compared to the UK at 43.6%.  The following link with put you at the Field listing &#8211; Public dept.  You can click on items to get the definition and put the item in country rank order.  Have fun.<br />
  <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2186.html" rel="nofollow"></a><a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worl" rel="nofollow">https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worl</a>&#8230; </p>
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		<title>By: Johnny Norfolk</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/10/21/government-in-debt-now-at-18-trillion/#comment-7259</link>
		<dc:creator>Johnny Norfolk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Oct 2008 15:02:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1862#comment-7259</guid>
		<description>You see Labour are not prepared to govern. 
 
They just want to continue to spend and they know they will loose the next election. 
The Tories come in and start to govern the country and that means more Thatcher type pain to get us out of this mess. Labour then of couse will try to pass the buck and blame the Tories as thay have always done. 
 
It is just a repeat of last time only worse. 
 
The worst thing that has happened to Britain since the war is GORDON BROWN both as chancellor and PM. 
 
Labour can only spend not govern. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You see Labour are not prepared to govern. </p>
<p>They just want to continue to spend and they know they will loose the next election.<br />
The Tories come in and start to govern the country and that means more Thatcher type pain to get us out of this mess. Labour then of couse will try to pass the buck and blame the Tories as thay have always done. </p>
<p>It is just a repeat of last time only worse. </p>
<p>The worst thing that has happened to Britain since the war is GORDON BROWN both as chancellor and PM. </p>
<p>Labour can only spend not govern. </p>
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		<title>By: David Burch</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/10/21/government-in-debt-now-at-18-trillion/#comment-7258</link>
		<dc:creator>David Burch</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Oct 2008 13:45:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1862#comment-7258</guid>
		<description>Thank you John for putting figures on the government indebtness and the civil service pension deficit. I had rather though it had slipped off the political agenda until the date that the government would have to default on payment. 
 
These are fighteningly large figures and does show that Brown has most definitely divorced prudence (if in fact they were every married). 
 
Do not forget that there are other ways to tackle the pension black hole ie raising the retirement age as well as converting to a defined benefit scheme. Under the banner of harmonisation of pension provision will have us all having to plan and dig deeper to properly fund a decent retirement or opt out and work longer. 
 
As to the bank such as Northern Rock and RBS a private sector option such as administrative receivership and sale of assets is one here rather than burden future generations with massive debt repayment. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thank you John for putting figures on the government indebtness and the civil service pension deficit. I had rather though it had slipped off the political agenda until the date that the government would have to default on payment. </p>
<p>These are fighteningly large figures and does show that Brown has most definitely divorced prudence (if in fact they were every married). </p>
<p>Do not forget that there are other ways to tackle the pension black hole ie raising the retirement age as well as converting to a defined benefit scheme. Under the banner of harmonisation of pension provision will have us all having to plan and dig deeper to properly fund a decent retirement or opt out and work longer. </p>
<p>As to the bank such as Northern Rock and RBS a private sector option such as administrative receivership and sale of assets is one here rather than burden future generations with massive debt repayment. </p>
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		<title>By: Pete Chown</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/10/21/government-in-debt-now-at-18-trillion/#comment-7257</link>
		<dc:creator>Pete Chown</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Oct 2008 13:33:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1862#comment-7257</guid>
		<description>There are two problems with the increasing public debt.  The first is the obvious one, that it is unfair for us to pass this burden to future generations. 
 
The second is that the markets could lose confidence in the government&#039;s willingness to repay the debt.  Traders may become concerned that the government will allow inflation to take hold, as a way of evading its obligations.  (It&#039;s unlikely that a Western government would formally default, but inflation has the same effect as far as lenders are concerned.) 
 
If the markets did lose confidence, it might happen very suddenly.  The pound could start falling rapidly, and the government could find that it has to pay much higher interest rates on its bonds. 
 
Brown and Darling are taking a big risk with the economy.  If the markets lose confidence, they could have a sudden sterling crisis and a collapse in the bond market.  An &quot;acute&quot; financial crisis is just what we don&#039;t need, when we&#039;re trying to fix the &quot;chronic&quot; issues in the economy. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There are two problems with the increasing public debt.  The first is the obvious one, that it is unfair for us to pass this burden to future generations. </p>
<p>The second is that the markets could lose confidence in the government&#039;s willingness to repay the debt.  Traders may become concerned that the government will allow inflation to take hold, as a way of evading its obligations.  (It&#039;s unlikely that a Western government would formally default, but inflation has the same effect as far as lenders are concerned.) </p>
<p>If the markets did lose confidence, it might happen very suddenly.  The pound could start falling rapidly, and the government could find that it has to pay much higher interest rates on its bonds. </p>
<p>Brown and Darling are taking a big risk with the economy.  If the markets lose confidence, they could have a sudden sterling crisis and a collapse in the bond market.  An &quot;acute&quot; financial crisis is just what we don&#039;t need, when we&#039;re trying to fix the &quot;chronic&quot; issues in the economy. </p>
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		<title>By: Nick</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/10/21/government-in-debt-now-at-18-trillion/#comment-7256</link>
		<dc:creator>Nick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Oct 2008 13:10:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1862#comment-7256</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Readers of this site will know that I last estimated government borrowings and pension debts at &#163;1.5 trillion at the time of Northern Rock. Today a new publication estimates it at &#163;1.8 trillion, reflecting the increase in debts to pay for the banking rescues, the further build up in pension liabilities, and the general overrun on public spending and borrowing this year so far.&lt;/i&gt; 
 
Surely an underestimate, or are you saying that we aren&#039;t entitled to the state pension, or the state second pension? 
 
If the state workers are costing 1 trillion, with a relatively small number of people compared to the rest of society, what&#039;s the cost of the state pension with 50 million in the queue? What&#039;s the cost of the remaining pensions for the 10 million retired (substiute more accurate population numbers) 
 
The figure is going to be way above the 1 trillion mark. 
 
He&#039;s another rough estimate. 
 
40 million people yet to retire. Either they get a full state pension, or they are highly likely to be poor and get a top up. Cost per year of 5,000 
 
Since it&#039;s inflation linked, we don&#039;t need to worry about present valuing anything. It&#039;s 5K a year, per person. 
 
So, 
 
So roughly, each person costs 100K to fund. (A bit of an underestimate since the corresponding annuity is 140K but makes the maths easy). 
 
100,000 * 40,000,000 * 20 = 8 Trillion 
 
About 8 trillion in debt on an on going basis. 
 
Nick </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Readers of this site will know that I last estimated government borrowings and pension debts at &pound;1.5 trillion at the time of Northern Rock. Today a new publication estimates it at &pound;1.8 trillion, reflecting the increase in debts to pay for the banking rescues, the further build up in pension liabilities, and the general overrun on public spending and borrowing this year so far.</i> </p>
<p>Surely an underestimate, or are you saying that we aren&#039;t entitled to the state pension, or the state second pension? </p>
<p>If the state workers are costing 1 trillion, with a relatively small number of people compared to the rest of society, what&#039;s the cost of the state pension with 50 million in the queue? What&#039;s the cost of the remaining pensions for the 10 million retired (substiute more accurate population numbers) </p>
<p>The figure is going to be way above the 1 trillion mark. </p>
<p>He&#039;s another rough estimate. </p>
<p>40 million people yet to retire. Either they get a full state pension, or they are highly likely to be poor and get a top up. Cost per year of 5,000 </p>
<p>Since it&#039;s inflation linked, we don&#039;t need to worry about present valuing anything. It&#039;s 5K a year, per person. </p>
<p>So, </p>
<p>So roughly, each person costs 100K to fund. (A bit of an underestimate since the corresponding annuity is 140K but makes the maths easy). </p>
<p>100,000 * 40,000,000 * 20 = 8 Trillion </p>
<p>About 8 trillion in debt on an on going basis. </p>
<p>Nick </p>
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		<title>By: Acorn</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/10/21/government-in-debt-now-at-18-trillion/#comment-7255</link>
		<dc:creator>Acorn</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Oct 2008 12:52:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1862#comment-7255</guid>
		<description>I wish you luck trying to work out the true level of the nations debts.  I doubt if we have enough forensic accountants to tackle the job.  Why is it that I can find out more about the state of US government finances on the INTERNET than I can about the UK? 
 
Where are the UK expert blogger sites like the US has.  &quot;Burning our Money&quot; and The TPA are doing a much better job than the big brain think tanks like the IFS and the IEA.  Is there a conspiracy of silence; do they all belong to the same secret handshake clubs? 
 
How about this for an off-the-wall idea.  We put all the public sector pension funds - funded or unfunded - into one big pot.  We stick all our credit crunch assets in the pot.  Everything from preference shares in banks; equity shares; junk mortgage backed bonds; all public sector pension funds assets liabilities; and, public sector employers and employees contributions - where they actually make any real cash contributions that is. 
 
We contract running the big pot to our biggest and best pension fund companies in a manor that will not overly distort the private sector markets. 
 
When the dust settles, a lot of this junk is going to be worth something, so we sell it back into the market, put the cash in the big pot to help pay current public sector pensioners. 
 
Every public sector employing entity gets the real bill for the cost of its pension provision - including the early leavers.  That includes all the taxpayer contributions that go to top it up.  We may all be aware of the work of Neil Record, that showed that a female police officer should be paying a total of some fifty percent of salary rather than the twenty percent she and her employer are now paying.(words left out) 
 
Also, public sector employees and their trade unions need a dose of reality when they get to their next winter of discontent.  We put a line on the pay check that shows the taxpayers contribution to the employees contribution.  Should make for interesting pay negotiations and possibly the death of Defined Benefit public sector pension schemes. 
 
John, please don&#039;t tell us the MPs pension scheme is fully funded because it ain&#039;t. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I wish you luck trying to work out the true level of the nations debts.  I doubt if we have enough forensic accountants to tackle the job.  Why is it that I can find out more about the state of US government finances on the INTERNET than I can about the UK? </p>
<p>Where are the UK expert blogger sites like the US has.  &quot;Burning our Money&quot; and The TPA are doing a much better job than the big brain think tanks like the IFS and the IEA.  Is there a conspiracy of silence; do they all belong to the same secret handshake clubs? </p>
<p>How about this for an off-the-wall idea.  We put all the public sector pension funds &#8211; funded or unfunded &#8211; into one big pot.  We stick all our credit crunch assets in the pot.  Everything from preference shares in banks; equity shares; junk mortgage backed bonds; all public sector pension funds assets liabilities; and, public sector employers and employees contributions &#8211; where they actually make any real cash contributions that is. </p>
<p>We contract running the big pot to our biggest and best pension fund companies in a manor that will not overly distort the private sector markets. </p>
<p>When the dust settles, a lot of this junk is going to be worth something, so we sell it back into the market, put the cash in the big pot to help pay current public sector pensioners. </p>
<p>Every public sector employing entity gets the real bill for the cost of its pension provision &#8211; including the early leavers.  That includes all the taxpayer contributions that go to top it up.  We may all be aware of the work of Neil Record, that showed that a female police officer should be paying a total of some fifty percent of salary rather than the twenty percent she and her employer are now paying.(words left out) </p>
<p>Also, public sector employees and their trade unions need a dose of reality when they get to their next winter of discontent.  We put a line on the pay check that shows the taxpayers contribution to the employees contribution.  Should make for interesting pay negotiations and possibly the death of Defined Benefit public sector pension schemes. </p>
<p>John, please don&#039;t tell us the MPs pension scheme is fully funded because it ain&#039;t. </p>
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		<title>By: APL</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/10/21/government-in-debt-now-at-18-trillion/#comment-7254</link>
		<dc:creator>APL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Oct 2008 12:26:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1862#comment-7254</guid>
		<description>JR: &quot;Government in debt - now at &#163;1.8 trillion&quot; 
 
The frightening thing is, they plan to spend their way out of recession. 
 
Well, I guess we are going to see the difference between a Tory boom and bust, and a Labour boom and bust. 
 
After a Labour boom and bust, there is only a smoking black hole where the UK economy used to be! 
 
It&#039;s a good job Mr Redwood has banned expletives on his forum, I have a few choice ones for Mr Brown! </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>JR: &quot;Government in debt &#8211; now at &pound;1.8 trillion&quot; </p>
<p>The frightening thing is, they plan to spend their way out of recession. </p>
<p>Well, I guess we are going to see the difference between a Tory boom and bust, and a Labour boom and bust. </p>
<p>After a Labour boom and bust, there is only a smoking black hole where the UK economy used to be! </p>
<p>It&#039;s a good job Mr Redwood has banned expletives on his forum, I have a few choice ones for Mr Brown! </p>
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		<title>By: crown</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/10/21/government-in-debt-now-at-18-trillion/#comment-7253</link>
		<dc:creator>crown</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Oct 2008 10:47:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1862#comment-7253</guid>
		<description>I do get confused with the debt figures. 
 
Gordon uses the IMF figures to show us in a good light. I&#039;m not sure what figures David Cameron is using to show us above egypt etc. 
 
It would be a useful blog post to descibe how each set of figures quoted is concoted. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I do get confused with the debt figures. </p>
<p>Gordon uses the IMF figures to show us in a good light. I&#039;m not sure what figures David Cameron is using to show us above egypt etc. </p>
<p>It would be a useful blog post to descibe how each set of figures quoted is concoted. </p>
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