Comments on: Which forecast do you believe?

By: Mr C

Mr C — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 19:39:14 +0000

Slightly O/T I know but it's often said that when a politician becomes the object of widespread ridicule his or her days are numbered. In this connection, you might find the following take on Brown's economic competence, funny but perceptive. http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=wtIjgsxe-jM

By: Matthew Reynolds

Matthew Reynolds — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 21:01:21 +0000

A 30% tax cut bringing rates down from 45p,40p and 20p to 31.5%,28% and 14% on incomes and a 50% corporate tax cut lowering them from 28% & 21% to 14% & 10.5% with two-thirds of the money found from smaller government and the rest from an anticipation of the Laffer-Curve doing its work could get the economy going again if phased in over six years on the back of virtually zero public spending growth for at least three years.

The basic personal allowance could be £10,000 p/a for all taxpayers irrespective of age or income and the only business tax break would be a simple one for companies who annually reinvest at least 30% of their before tax profits into their business.

Public spending cuts on aid for rich countries like China, welfare dependency, civil service numbers , QUANGO's , RDA's , EU monies , New Deal , Transport , government procurement etc should not be too tough to find…

As Big Government & high taxes have failed how about the opposite policy to sort out this mess….

By: mikestallard

mikestallard — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 18:43:00 +0000

There is the fourth possibility: melt down.
If Labour win the next election because of boundary unfairness, Scottish and Northern England support and a general swing leftwards, then public spending will carry on regardless. Today Mr Cameron, completely rightly, mentioned cutting public service pensions and there are a LOT of public servants at the moment. Labour's record on two Scottish banks and Northern Rock worked well at Glenrothes. "Public spending cuts" means hurting two million people and their families on the dole and could be seen as affecting the sacred "schools'n'hospitals." there are also a lot of pensioners who vote.
Once the eldction is won by Labour, more and more people will be unproductive in a rapidly aging society. Immigration already has stopped round here. Who will do the work then to repay the debts?
The public payroll will swell and the debts grow simply to pay for the government's monthly bills. Meanwhile the electricity and gas will be cut off as "wind power" and 15% "renewables" are "put on stream".
The economy will look more and more iffy as the debt grows higher and higher. The pound will start to sink lower and lower. Eventually, of course, the whole thing will judder to a halt. (Remember the winter of discontent?)
At that point people will discover that the IMF is now (Nov 2008) down to its last £100 billion pounds…….

By: jean baker

jean baker — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 14:48:07 +0000

Brown's a proven 'confidence trickster' focussed primarily on 'votes'. He has no long terms policies for the historic mess he's created because his party has no intention of changing it's anti-democratic, destructive ways if re-elected. Nulabor wants more of the same – highly profitable labour unionist command of taxpayer funded PFI's. 'Champagne socialism' – based on three generational debts to taxpayers.

By: Dr Dan H.

Dr Dan H. — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 13:25:04 +0000

The problem I have with believing the current Government figures is this: at no time in the past have any predictions made by Gordon Brown proved to be correct, or even vaguely near the mark. All his predictions regarding finance have all been wrong, so I doubt he'll suddenly grow a brain now.

Further to this, everything I'm hearing from the Government sounds like "We're in a hole, so let's grab some pick-axes and dig harder!". The current financial strategy is deranged and impossible, the government shows no signs of trying to curtail its outgoings (cancelling ID Cards, freezing benefit payment increases, curtailing the restrictiveness of EU edicts) and also show no signs of getting a clue where the future energy supplies of the UK are concerned.

Right now, it is all looking like we're in for a snap-election in the spring of next year, before PFI debts (mostly held by now nationalised banks) come onto the UK balance sheet and sap financial market confidence once again. Leading up to this I'd expect a marked change in the public behaviour of Brown, as his aides drug the man to cut down on the dithering and belatedly give the man a backbone, albeit temporarily.

If he fumbles the spring election, that's it; Labour are sunk without a trace.

By: T Dorlas

T Dorlas — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 12:38:32 +0000

Dear Mr. Redwood,
It seems to me that one of the main factors in this crisis has been the omission of
property prices from inflation figures.
Now looks like a good time to argue for reinstating the old indicators before
inflation takes hold again.

By: Brian Tomkinson

Brian Tomkinson — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 11:28:46 +0000

JR: "Both the UK and US authorities, so heavily encumbered by new debt, will have an interest in inflating their way out of some of it."

I have a strong feeling that inflation will rise horrendously and that this is in fact the intention of these governments to clear their massive debts, but they will never admit it until it is a fait accompli. We shall all suffer as a consequence. Does it not seem to you that we are on track to become one of the poorer nations of the world by a significant margin?

By: Monoi

Monoi — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 11:16:40 +0000

Methinks you're a bit optimistic on the Chinese/Indian resilience.