Try reading instead of listening to spin and leaks

Yesterday the media discovered “quantitative easing” – a polite way of saying the Bank of England can inject lots of money directly into banks, and can go on to order more to be printed, to try to get things moving.

We were told that after a further round of interest rate cuts, if things were still not working, the authorities would consider this drastic step. Clearly the spinners were worried that the latest plunge in interest rates would not do the job, and they intended to head off any suggestion that the authorities were “running out of options” or had “used up all their firepower”. They all seem to forget that monetary action takes about a year to have a decent impact. That was why I wanted interest rate cuts a year ago, as about now we would be feeling the benefit, with far less of a downturn.

Let me hasten to say I don’t have a mole in the Bank of England, and I don’t receive brown envelopes with interesting papers. Instead I do try to read some of the published information even this government has to put out. That’s why yesterday when others were writing about how the Bank of England could inject more cash into the system after rate cuts, I wrote about how this is exactly what they have been doing on a grand scale for several weeks.

When the authorities foolishly stood by in the prelude to the run on Northern Rock, they triggered the need as they saw it to nationalise that institution. The Bank required the Treasury to take some of the strain of taking it over as the Bank of England was then far smaller than Northern Rock with a balance sheet (from memory) then around 40% of the Rock’s. Today the Bank of England’s balance sheet is two and half times the size of the Rock, so in other words the Bank of England’s balance sheet has expanded sixfold or so.

The actions of the monetary authorities are still like the driver of the car trying to steer by continuously looking in the rear view mirror. All the time the road looked clear behind, they kept speeding the vehicle up. When the heavy traffic of inflation started to appear in the rear mirror they slammed on the brakes. Now they have crashed into the brick wall of recession, they have seen the problem in the rear view mirror, as others pile into the crash. Their first reaction was to clam on the regulatory brakes after the crash, requiring huge increases in banking capital and less lending. Now they see the resulting pile up behind them, them are pressing the accelerator to the floor, but the car is not going anywhere as it has bricks stuck in the wheels. One of two outcomes is possible. The first is the bricks do shake free and we will then be accelerating at breakneck speed, still watching in the rear view mirror. The second possibility is the bricks do not shake free and we just damage the engine, until someone gets the bricks out.

How do we get the bricks out? The bricks are the broken banks. The government sometime soon needs to call them in for proper talks, not for the ritual lecture about lending more money. It needs to discuss how £450 billion of loans and guarantees it has said are available can best be used and help free the banks. The Regulator needs to revisit his capital demands, and come to a transitional compromise over how much capital is needed and on what conditions, so the regulations are not pulling in the opposite direction to the monetary policy. The government needs to protect taxpayers by taking proper security, and start to curb its own appetite for too much borrowing. Instead the authorities seem happy for bank capital to buy its government debt, and may soon be buying up government bonds itself to try to create a “bond bubble”. This would be a triumph of the short over the long term yet again.

For those who like metaphors, a City commentator (I think it was Lombard) compared the actions of the MPC and the Bank to the person in the shower who can never get the temperature right. Tiring of the cold start to the shower, they turn the thermostat to very hot. After a pause they are surpised to be scalded. They wrench the thermostat back to cold. Sometime later they are shivering from jets of cold water. They lurch the control back to very hot…

Please can our authorities learn to get the temperature right soon?

Wokingham Times

What an extraordinary week last week. On Monday we had a statement which was meant to update us on the lack of progress in the economy, but turned out to be the biggest Budget I have ever heard during my time as an MP. The government offered us no debate or vote on it, so we had to demand one. We eventually were granted just 3 hours to discuss it before the untimely closure of Parliament for yet another break.

My concern about the UK economy has centred around the large banking sector relative to National Income and tax revenue, the large consumer deficit, and the growing government deficit. I have felt the government has been running too much financial risk, whilst the economy itself will enter a period of no growth followed by relatively slow growth. I called for lower interest rates a year ago to try to stave off recession, but the loow moving authorities failed to see the problem in time. Now we are all going to suffer as a result.

All this seems to be endorsed by the government’s own heavily revised forecasts. They foresee growth for 2008 at 0.75%, with falls in quarters 3 and 4, followed by a fall of 1% next year, and growth of 1.75% in 2010.
Private sector forecasters are likely to see this as optimistic, with more fearing a continuation of the downturn beyond the second quarter of 2009. The UK’s growth in the last decade owed a lot to the success of banking, property, financial and business services, areas which are entering difficult times.

The government’s is spending and borrowing too much. The Chancellor told us he planned to borrow £78 billion this year compared with the last Budget forecast of £43 billion. The back of the new Forecast book shows that when the bank share buying and other financial transactions are taken into account, his true borrowing needs from markets and National Savings amounts to an astonishing £157.7 billion. That’s another £2700 overdraft for every man woman and child in the country. This will be followed by borrowing well over £100 billion the following year.

How has he got into such a position? There are three main reasons, The biggest increase in borrowing comes to buy bank shares and nationalise smaller banks. Their current estimate for this year is now £69 billion. It’s more than taxpayers can afford. We are already losing a fortune on the banks he is nationalising. He should have used short term loans and guarantees secured against their assets instead.

The second biggest change is the collapse of tax revenues. This year they anticipate a revenue fall of £30 billion, to be followed by a huge dip of ££64 billion next year excluding the policy change on VAT.

The third change is a series of policy alterations in favour of more spending and lower taxes. The £8.6 billion next year off VAT is the largest.

The figures reveal too much financial risk and too much borrowing. The government is now in the hands of the money lenders. It was once famously said “We do not own the nationalised industries, they own us”. The government will have to learn that lesson all over again with its expensive habit of buying banks.

Meanwhile, offering a 2.5% cut in Vat is not what the doctor ordered. People cannot afford their existing bills. They don’t want an incentive to spend more, they need to keep more of their own income to pay for the mortgage, the heating and the food. Keeping Council Tax down would have been a better help than offering a bit more ff the price of a new car or telly, at a time when prices are collapsing anyway.

The pound, our incomes and companies take another tumble

The Prime Minister may be in denial, but we have just lived through another week when many people’s living standards have been falling. The pound fell again, now trading at 87 pence to the Euro, and down at 136 yen. This has cut our purchasing power further for all those goods that are imported. There were large job losses announced. More companies put their employees onto three or four day working, or extended holiday closures. Pay rises remain below price increases.

The worrying thing was the immediate response to the 1% cut in the Bank’s base interest rate. The share market fell a little, when you would normally expect investors to see interest rate reductions as good news. Sterling fell, unlike the dollar when they slashed interest rates. International investors seemed to regard the monetary action in the US as good news, but here they are more concerned about a variety of issues, including the rapid build up of public borrowing.

The Bank of England’s latest weekly publication shows that its balance sheet has ballooned to a massive £260 billion as it tries to stimulate banking activity. The Bank of England has share capital of just £14.6 million, provided by taxpayers. At the 2007 annual balance sheet it had share capital and reserves of £1.86 billion. It is interesting that at a time when the Regulator is making the commercial banks put up more capital to improve the ratio between their share capital/ reserves and their total commitments, the Bank of England is going dramatically in the other direction. Of course it is not a worry, as the taxpayer stands behind the Bank, and the Bank concentrates on buying high quality and short term assets. It shows just how hard the authorities are trying to get something to happen, that the central Bank now has a balance sheet around 130 times its core shareholders funds when commercial banks are being asked to get their balance sheets down to around 12 times their shareholders funds. Restrictions on commercial bank capital ratios help prevent more of the injection being passed on to new borrowers.

For the time being the large monetary infusions into the markets and the active approach of the Bank of England are not inflationary. The tight regulations on the commercial banks, the poor state of the wholesale markets and their new caution means this money does not get passed on through the banks and multiplied by their lending. The authorities will need to be vigilant to withdraw this large liquidity when things do start to work again, otherwise it will become inflationary.

Today’s chosen subject for debate by the political classes is why the full interest rate cut by the Central bank is not being passed on by all the commercial banks. It gives politicians a marvellous opportuntiy to feel useful, by demanding that the banks cut their rates. They should try to understand why this is happening. There are some obvious reasons why some of the banks will not pass on some of the cut to some of their borrowers:

1. Savers need a reasonable rate on their savings. Banks need to keep and increase the deposits they take from the public, as other sources of money for the banks have dried up.
2. Banks need to make more profit to meet the Regulators’ demands for more shareholders funds (which include retained profit) to maintain their existing level of lending, let alone increase it.
3. Some people have signed contracts to borrow at fixed rates, so they do not get the benefit.
4. Banks think lending to people is becoming more risky, as many more people are unfortunately likely to lose their jobs as the recession bites harder, so banks feel they need a better margin and more reserves to deal with future losses on bad debts.
5. State owned banks(N Rock, RBS) have been losing money in the first half year and presumably at some point will be required to make a profit for the new involuntary shareholders.

It is ghastly watching the speed and size of the collapse now going on in much of the private sector. If the government does not mend the banks quickly, the recession will deepen more. That is why they do need to revisit their £450 billion package of loans and gurantees to see how it can be better spent to get some health back into the commercial banks, and why they need to review the regulatory framework again as it is clearly reinforcing caution and parsimony by banks. I hold no brief for the banks, and understand their current unpopularity. I do think, however, when something is n’t working well those in power should consider how to change the signals and the framework to alter conduct as they wish, rather than engaging in a public slanging match.

John Redwood contributes to Queen’s Speech debate

During yesterday’s debate on the Queen’s Speech, John Redwood called on the Government to re-visit the banking package and also look again at the regulatory framework in order to get credit flowing again. He also called for Parliament to be given greater opportunity to hold the Government to account, and consider the laws and statutory instruments which they intend to push through. John also expressed disappointment that the Prime Minister had engaged in party political point-scoring over his suggestions on how to beat the recession.

The full text of John’s contributions, taken from Hansard, now follows:

Mr. John Redwood (Wokingham) (Con): Will the Prime Minister re-examine the £487 billion banking package, because surely he shares our disappointment that more lending is not taking place to decent businesses in our country?

The Prime Minister: The right hon. Gentleman signed the report that said that we should give up regulation in mortgage finance. I criticised a Conservative Member last week for saying that the recession should take its course, but what the right hon. Gentleman said yesterday on his website is even more amazing:

“Living standards in both the public and private sector have to be brought down.”

That is the Conservative party’s answer to the problems that we face, not taking the necessary action.

Mr. Redwood: Does the Liberal Democrat leader also agree that we need more time to consider the Budgets, the statutory instruments and the laws that go through the House with very little of their content being debated?
Mr. Clegg: I agree with the right hon. Gentleman. That involves the much wider issue of the lop-sided nature of the information, power and prerogatives of the Executive, compared with the increasingly feeble powers and prerogatives of the legislature.

Mr. Redwood: I spent quite a lot of time on that. I explained that the Government needed to revisit the banking package to get the banks lending again. I said that they needed to look again at the regulatory framework for the banks so that credit could flow. I also explained that we needed lower interest rates. Those are all suggestions that I made.

Mr. Mitchell: I can agree with the right hon. Gentleman on that, but he did not say whether he welcomed the Government’s putting money into the banks to improve their reserve ratios, which will get them lending again.

Mr. John Redwood (Wokingham) (Con): I remind the House that I am a company director, and that I have declared my interests on the register.

I echo the words of the right hon. Member for Leicester, East (Keith Vaz) about legislation often not being the answer to the pressing problems that confront the nation. Perhaps I should begin with a rare word of praise for the Government: the good thing about this Queen’s Speech is that there is not too much legislation in it. I make two pleas, however. First, may we please have the time to debate, at length and seriously, the proposed legislation in it, in order to do it justice? If one legislates in haste, one repents at leisure and has to legislate again and again, as we have seen.

Secondly, may we also have more time in which to hold the Executive to account? What Ministers do when they spend money and when they lead or mislead their civil service teams, or do not lead them at all, is crucial work. Their implementation of programmes and their day-to-day work of judging cases and hearing representations is also crucial work. As a parliamentarian who would like the opportunity to have more sittings here that we could attend, I feel that we could profitably spend our time probing and discussing more of those matters. Sensible Ministers would welcome that scrutiny. As a Minister, I often found it good to have to explain to the House what I was doing. It made one marshall one’s case and realise where one needed to raise one’s game. Colleagues on both sides of the House made helpful points, sometimes in anger or desperation and sometimes as friends, and one would have been a fool not to take such points on board and to understand what the House was doing.
I want to speak mainly about the leading item in the Queen’s Speech, which is reflected in some Treasury legislation: the need to create financial stability. I think that is the Government’s phrase to mean that we need better economic policy so that living standards can start to rise again instead of falling, and so that we can do better by our constituents who face serious trouble. We see factory closure after factory closure and people going on to short-time working. Many people face having employment for only three or four days a week, some people are facing extended factory closures over Christmas and the new year and some people are facing redundancy.

All our living standards have been chopped brutally by the 25 per cent. fall in the value of sterling of the past four months. Most people’s living standards have
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fallen in the past year because wages have risen less quickly than prices. Living standards are also falling because although the oil price has come down a long way in dollar terms, it has not come down so far in sterling terms because of the weakness of the pound. It certainly has not come down when one faces the gas or electricity bill at home. Practically everyone in the country, save those who have managed to get an extra job on better pay, is experiencing a severe squeeze on living standards.

When I made a non-party political point to the Prime Minister during the course of his remarks on the Gracious Speech, which was designed as a helpful suggestion to him to tackle the biggest problem that confronts us today—the lack of credit and money flowing through the banking system—I was treated to the usual, foolish political put-down, which was not even accurate. Apparently, the Prime Minister has nothing better to do with his time than to consider the latest offerings on my website. I am greatly flattered by this, and perhaps that shows his true sense of priority, but would he and his acolytes please read it carefully, because what it said was that markets and Government policy are forcing living standards down. That is what I have just told the House, but I have done so at greater length on the website. That is not what I want or propose or think a good idea. I have gone hoarse and have written a lot on the website in the past two years making sensible, serious proposals to try to avoid that calamity and to prevent living standards from falling.

I deeply resent the way in which time and time again I am told personally, and the Conservative party told generally, that we in some way welcome a recession, that we want to do nothing about a recession, that we accept a recession, that we think a recession is good enough and somehow we like recessions. I loathe recessions; I have seen too many. Yes, they have occurred when different parties have been in office, but they have all been because major policy mistakes have been made. Every one of them has occurred in ways that could have been abated or ameliorated if different policy action had been taken. That is why I have spent the past two years trying to persuade the Government that they needed to take different action to avoid recession or, now that we are deep in it, to get out of it more quickly.

Bob Spink (Castle Point) (Ind): Did the right hon. Gentleman note that Her Majesty said, in the Gracious Speech:

“My Government will work towards European action on economic stability”?

Does that fill him with fear given that this country is a net contributor to the European budget and that we subsidise 20 or so other countries in Europe? Does he think that it will be a way out of recession for us to put more money into Europe to be used in its particular and peculiar way to tackle economic stability?

Mr. Redwood: I welcome intergovernmental action of any kind that will address the banking crisis that runs across Europe and the United States of America. I do not take the hon. Gentleman’s bait. He well knows that I think that a lot of money is wasted in the European Union, and that I should like it to have a much smaller
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budget and much less power. However, that is not the point of this debate. We are discussing the very big crisis that confronts a range of economies in the world.

Britain happens to have one of the worst and most persistent examples of that crisis. We went into it quite early, with the collapse of Northern Rock, and we are now deep in it in a way that is not mirrored in China, Japan or Germany. Those countries are rather stronger when it comes to their balance of payments and financial position. Our position is closer to that of the United States of America, where similar policy errors were made to those that were made here.

Let us be under no delusion. We did not inherit this problem from the United States of America; we do not have it because something went wrong there. Our policy makers and authorities, using their powers, made similar mistakes to the American mistakes. They should have known better, and they should listen to those of us who can give some explanation as to what went wrong. They should listen to those of us who care so much about our country that we offer them good advice to get out of the situation.

This is a big crisis, and it is not something to play party politics with. I agree with that proposition, which some have advanced from time to time. Everyone knows that I like a good party political scrap, and that I am not afraid of a good argument, but on this occasion, the magnitude of the crisis and the way in which action has been ineffective so far should be of grave concern to us all. We should listen a little more carefully and think together a little more about how to get out of the situation.

Let us consider some of the mistakes that have been made. In August 2007, it was obvious to me, as a commentator, and to many people in the City, that the money markets were drying out, that the Bank of England was not supplying enough cash and that there was going to be a banking catastrophe. We warned the Bank and told it to supply more cash, but it failed to do so. We had lectures from the Governor and the Chancellor that it served the banks right, but shortly after those lectures, the run on Northern Rock began. Shortly after that, I am pleased to say, they reversed their policy and agreed that they had to do something and to put money in. Had the Government put in the amount of money in August that they had put in by the end of the year, Northern Rock would not have gone down. It was a totally unnecessary casualty, as a result of obstinacy, foolishness and the inability of the authorities to understand the state of the markets.

In my new-year message, and in other speeches, comments and articles that I wrote at the turn of the year, I told the Government that interest rates were far too high and that, because they were keeping them so high, we were going to have a very nasty and deep recession in a year’s time. I said that if action had been taken to slash interest rates at that time—I suggested halving them, and that has now just about been done, nine months too late—some of the severity of the downturn could have been avoided. The Government decided, however, that they did not want to do that. They now have to answer to the House and tell us why they refused that well-intentioned advice, and why they could not see for themselves that interest rates were far too high and doing enormous damage, and that this was drying up credit in a way that was going to hit the
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jobs of their constituents as well as ours, in a way that meant that a lot of businesses were going to run out of cash and in a way that was bound to bring things down.

The Government have taken several famous lines on the recession. First, they have told us that they are on the side of everyone at this time. Well, I would hope that they are. We are all on the side of the people who are about to suffer; that is not something that creates a party political divide in this country. We are elected here to serve people, and I think that we all come here because we have a passion about the people we represent, and because we want them to have a better standard of life and better opportunities in life. That is not something that divides the parties, so it is quite wrong of the Government to go round suggesting that it is only they who are on the side of the people.

The Government, unlike us, are in a very privileged position. We can suggest, propose and argue about what we think should be done to show that we are on people’s side, but the Government can actually do these things. When they threw the challenge across to my right hon. Friend the Member for Witney (Mr. Cameron)—who was in extremely good voice today—to name five things that he would do to help people during this very nasty recession, he reeled off five extremely sensible proposals that he and others on our Front Bench have been arguing for. He obviously took the wind out of the sails of that foolish attack.
The Government should stop playing trivial politics with this issue, and see that the loyal Opposition are on the side of the people as well, and that we have some proposals that the Government have not yet adopted and which could help a bit. They need to understand that what the people want more than anything else is not help when they have a repossession crisis, when they have lost their job or when they cannot afford to pay the gas bill, but to see the Government following an economic policy that will get us out of this situation. They want the Government to offer some real hope to show that they have got on top of the banking crisis.

In its early stages, the Gracious Speech referred to legislation for the banks. I have no objection to the Government wishing to put the banking code into legislation, and I understand that the banks have no objection either. The timing of the proposal is quite bizarre, however, because the Government are going to be legislating on banking conduct at precisely the time when a big chunk of the banking sector is coming under their direct control as a nationalised industry. Perhaps the Government do not trust themselves. Perhaps they suddenly see the need to have lots of banking regulation codified in statute because they are going to be the shareholder representatives, as well as choosing and getting rid of the directors and otherwise exercising some sort of control.

This brings us to an interesting dilemma that the Government now face, and which they need to resolve. Again, it would be helpful if we could have some intelligent dialogue on this matter, rather than silly yah-boo politics. Here is the dilemma. The banks were called in on one famous weekend and told that they did not have enough capital for their existing amount of lending, and that they had to raise large sums of capital very quickly to satisfy the Government and the regulator, who could then say that the banks were secure and safe. That was a rather odd thing to do in the middle of a
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very bad credit crunch. It would have been very good to have done it three years ago, before the credit explosion really got under way, because it would have taken some of the pressure out of the system and moderated banking conduct. It would also have been sensible to have done it in private, and not to have leaked it, so that the banks could have had a chance to raise the money from private sources without share prices being pushed against them by untimely and worrying leaks about how strong the banks really were.
If the Government are serious that this is the right time to demand so much more capital for the existing amount of lending, they have to understand that the banks are going to lend less. There are two ways in which banks can meet the new capital requirements. One is to raise very large sums of money, and they have done that a bit, to the extent that they and the Government think that they can. The other way is to lend less, which will result in the ratio improving—the ratio compares the lending with the amount of capital—and this is primarily why the banks are lending less. They have been told, by the Government’s regulator, that they need to lend less, relative to the amount of capital that they have.

At the same time, however, the Government are saying that, now that the banks are coming under public ownership, it is terribly important that they should lend more. Are the Government going to adjust the capital ratio? Are they going to provide even more shareholder capital from the taxpayer? Or do they not understand that their statements are pointing in opposite directions and are contradictory? We need a better explanation from the Government of what they really expect from the banks. Do they want them to be super-prudent, now that they realise how imprudent the regulatory regime, the monetary regime—and, yes, banking conduct—were in the run-up to the credit crisis? Or are they now saying that they have probably overdone it, and they need the banks to lend more? If that is the case, they need to look again at the ratios and consider what they are going to do.

Of course, no bank of any major scale must be allowed to go down, and I am pleased that the Government understand that. They normally suggest that people like me would like to see that happen, but of course I would not. I have gone blue in the face trying to explain why banks need to be supported, and that they need to be supported in the right way. I think that they need to be supported by an intelligent central bank that will lend them short-term funds when they need them, and by an intelligent regulator privately telling them how much extra capital they need to raise and giving them the chance to raise that capital, either by selling assets, cutting costs and generating more profit, or by going to the market, if that option is open to them. There are many ways in which banks can improve and increase their strength and their capital base, but they were not given the chance to do that because of the damaging leaks that occurred over that fateful weekend, when they were called in by the Government and the regulator.

The subject of leaks is, of course, extremely topical, and I find it odd that such an asymmetric approach is being taken to the matter. A high-level inquiry is taking place into a series of leaks from the Home Office. There will be plenty of opportunity to debate that matter, and I do not wish to detain the House by talking about it
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now. We need to know more before we can have an informed debate. I find it odd, however, that the same level of interest was not shown in the leaks about banking share capital, which were highly price sensitive and market sensitive, and which got out through a well-known conduit when what should have been secret talks were taking place at the Treasury. That had a big impact on the handling of the banking crisis in Britain. It speeded up the decision making, which possibly led to bad decisions being made, and, for some banks, it ruled out going to the market in the normal way or generating profit in the normal way to meet the targets. The leaks will prove extremely damaging to the taxpayer, and the information was highly price sensitive. It is surprising that no one is taking a great deal of interest in those leaks.

The other day, we heard a statement that was meant to be the pre-Budget report. The pre-Budget report is quite rightly normally delivered as a statement, in which the Government revise their economic forecasts and give some background to the real Budget. On this occasion, however, the statement was not a pre-Budget report at all; it was a Budget. In fact, it was the biggest Budget that I have ever sat through in the House of Commons. It moved more money—in absolute terms, and as a proportion of the economy—than I have ever seen a Chancellor of the Exchequer propose to move. It was vast. It was a Budget that divided the House on party lines. The Conservatives rightly said that it involved the least sensible tax cut that could possibly be introduced, which would not have the desired effect. We also pointed out that the borrowing figures were so preposterously large that the Government would be running much too great a risk. The Government, however, believe that that tax cut and that amount of extra borrowing are the right way to handle the recession.

That was a perfectly good disagreement that needed to be exposed. It was worth a decent debate. However, we got a debate only thanks to the Speaker and only after a lot of huffing and puffing. A Government who come to the House in the person of the Prime Minister to say that they believe in parliamentary democracy should automatically have tabled two or three days to debate that Budget. The Prime Minister should have been proud of it, for heaven’s sake. If he really believes in his case, if he thinks that he is right to gamble with so much borrowed money, and if he thinks that an immediate VAT reduction is what is needed to get everyone feeling happy and spending again, and to open the factories and stop the job losses, he has every entitlement to hold that view and to come and tell us about it. Surely he must be proud of it. I think that proposal is completely wrong; I wish it were not: if there were a quick, easy fix and if I thought that taking 2.5 per cent. off VAT would suddenly turn the economy around, I would be encouraging my colleagues on the Conservative Benches—whether or not they agreed with me—to say, “Yes, this is exactly what we should be doing”. Unfortunately, I do not think there is a prayer of it working. That is why it deserved a proper parliamentary debate.
That brings me to the concluding part of my remarks, which is about democracy itself. On this day of all days, we should be reminded of the mighty battles our predecessors fought so that this place could stand up for
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the people against an over-mighty Executive. Now the form of the ceremony handles the King or Queen as the possible aggressor: that was true 300 to 400 years ago, but it is not true today in an era of a wonderful monarch, who is a democratic one and does not interfere in the political process. Today, the power is on the Treasury Bench; today, the power is in ministerial offices; today, the power is there in the form of Ministers who will not tell us what is going on, who will not answer to this House, who will not answer questions and who will not hold debates on the things that really matter.

That is why Opposition Members—I think Liberal Democrats as well as Conservatives—are united in believing that the Government have to wake up and listen to those who say that we need a stronger democracy in this Parliament and that we will have better government if it is more accountable government. We will have better government if the Government respect the traditions of this place; we will have better government if Ministers try to answer questions instead of playing silly politics all the time and refusing to answer. It would not have hurt the Prime Minister to have treated my intervention seriously and answered my question about the £487 billion that he is spending on the banks and the banking sector. It is a colossal sum of money; I, of course, wish him well with it; I agree with all the £37 billion of it—but it is not working and it needs to be reconsidered. The Prime Minister needs to re-examine the package to get it working quickly for all our sakes; otherwise, we are simply going to have more factory closures, more job losses, more office closures throughout this country’s constituencies.

If the Prime Minister cannot see that that is how he should conduct himself, it is going to be very difficult for him to make the difficult and important decisions he needs to make to start to get us out of this crisis. It is regrettable if he does not understand that most of the information handled in Government offices is not private information for Ministers to hoard and release to their favourite journalists when they choose, but public information that Ministers have a duty to release in due time and in the proper way to this House of Commons first. The privilege of belonging to this House should be that we get the information first and that we cross-examine the Government first. Why do we need that privilege? Because that is the way we do our job for our constituents. They expect to see Government policy and information tested in the furnace of the House of Commons first, not given to preferred journalists on the side and spun in favourable ways that do not allow the alternative case to be made.

Our democracy is at risk. We have gone from having twice-a-week opportunities to cross-examine the Prime Minister to having only one opportunity. We were told, “All will be fine, as you are going to get half an hour instead of a quarter of an hour”, but that matters very much. It means that the Opposition have a chance of making the agenda only one day a week instead of the two days that we used to have with two 15-minute sessions. We have gone from a system under which most of the time most parliamentary questions got sensible answers in response to the question asked to a position today when most of written parliamentary questions I table get absolutely no answer at all. I am referred to a website or I am told that I have put the wrong question, that I have no right to ask it or that the issue I raised
3 Dec 2008 : Column 69
relates to a Government-owned bank or a quango and the Minister cannot comment on it. It is pathetic, Madam Deputy Speaker. The quality of answers to written questions is very low and we cannot have an informed public debate if the Government will not answer those written questions.
When it comes to oral questions, it is a remarkable occasion if a Minister actually knows the answer and shares it with the House. We have two sorts of Ministers: very clever ones who know the answer and will not give it away because they find it so embarrassing, and not-so-clever ones who do not even know the answer that they must not give away. It is high time that we saw some Ministers on the Treasury Bench who know their subject well enough and have enough confidence in their case to tell us what the facts are, put the spin they want to put on it and try to satisfy the more moderate-minded people on the Opposition Benches. There are some and they would be satisfied with that; others would still disagree, but do so over something that mattered and based on proper information.

When I was a Minister, before making major statements or announcements, I used to allow my shadow Minister access to civil servants because I wanted him to know quite a lot of what I knew so that we would not have a row or argument about the facts—the facts would be in common so we could have a debate about what the public wanted to hear, namely what interpretation was placed on those facts and what action had been decided on as a result of them. All too little of that happens nowadays. That is why people outside are frustrated with this place; that is why people do not think it is working as it should be; that is why people feel that all the spin—that the Government are on the people’s side and the Opposition do not have a clue—is not actually working. People are hurting out there; they are losing their jobs; their living standards are falling; they are under pressure. It need not be like that: the Government should listen and they should, above all, become democratic.
6.25 pm

Mr. Austin Mitchell (Great Grimsby) (Lab): I will not attempt to follow the right hon. Member for Wokingham (Mr. Redwood) in the animated version of his website, fascinating as it was. It seemed to me that his speech was a pot pourri of ideas about banking and parliamentary reform, which somehow did not gel together. He told us that he had foreseen the crisis—well, congratulations on that—and that the Government’s measures were wrong, but he never told us what he would do. He then launched into his diatribe about parliamentary reform. Perhaps he thinks that having an extended Prime Minister’s Question Time is the answer for all those people out there who are hurting. Is that his answer?

Mr. Redwood: I spent quite a lot of time on that. I explained that the Government needed to revisit the banking package to get the banks lending again. I said that they needed to look again at the regulatory framework for the banks so that credit could flow. I also explained that we needed lower interest rates. Those are all suggestions that I made.

One cheer for Ms Harman

The Leader of the House is both a partisan Cabinet Minister, and the voice of the minority parties in government. Successful Leaders of the House take the second role seriously, and speak up in government to ensure fair play for the minority, insisting on proper time for debate and examination of the Executive on things the Opposition is unhappy with or where it has a differing view.

I have not been a fan of Ms Harman in this role, as she has failed to allow the Opposition to use the Thursday so called topical debates to highlight the issues that we think are topical, she has failed to get many of her colleagues to make their statements to Parliament first, and in some cases has failed to get statements or debates at all. It is difficult to have much confidence in a Leader of the House who cannot ensure a proper debate on a large budget which is slipped out masquerading as a technical Statement.

Yesterday however I felt some sympathy for her. She was asked exactly the question a Cabinet Minister fears – do they have confidence in someone who is currently in the news? If she had given a ringing endorsement of the Speaker she would be concerned that the government was forced into giving a running commentary on the health of the Speaker’s position, which is not something many would welcome. Most of us want a Speaker who is above all that, and who is not beholden to the Executive for support. She was also conscious that there is going to be a debate on Monday about the Damian Green affair, where the House will hear a range of very different views. She seemed aware that she had to speak for the whole House, and the whole House has not yet spoken on this matter.

The Speaker himself has shown wisdom in granting the Opposition a debate on the Budget that pretended not to be a budget, and granting a debate on the important issue of Damian Green. Both he and Ms Harman have to give the Opposition its days in court on the big issues of our time. When they do this with a good grace they will draw strength from having cross party support.

The Prime Minister and this blog

I learnt two important things yesterday in the debate on the Queen’s Speech. The Prime Minister is an up to date reader of this blog. Unfortunately he does not seem to understand it.

I ask my other readers to allow me to make just a few things clear to our PM thirsting for knowledge from the wonderful world of the web.

1. The main point of most of the posts on this site for the last couple of years has been to advocate more freedom and higher living standards for the UK.
2. The last thing I want is lower living standards or a downturn.My posts explaining that we are now living through a sharp downturn in living standards is describing the results of the PM’s economic policy and banking crisis, not describing what I want or what would have happened if he had taken better advice.
3. In 2007 I offered advice which if taken could have avoided the run on the Rock. I then offered advice after the run which could have avoided the need for nationalised ownership and the big cuts in the business which followed.
4. A year ago I offered advice to cut interest rates substantially, which if followed could have avoided some of the severity of the downturn we are now entering.
5. My advice- offered by others as well – on more liquidity to money and banking markets was taken too late, and my advice on interest rates was followed months too late.

My advice now, just to remind him is:

1. Don’t cut VAT. It gives very poor value for all the borrowing.
2. Start selling assets off from the nationalised banks, to reduce taxpayer risk and to cut borrowing.
3. Then cut interest rates further.

$1 income may be too much!

The offer of the bosses of the main car companies in the US to work for $1 a year in return for federal assistance shows great political wisdom that has been sadly lacking amongst top bankers. It also shows a grasp of economic reality still sadly lacking in the financial sector.

The US car majors realise that they are paying too many people too much money to make too many of the wrong kind of cars. They need to cut the cost of each car they make, to stimulate sales by lower prices, and to match the competitive products coming from abroad. They need also to recognise the shift in customer choices and produce a new range of models more suited to modern American requirements in the age of sometimes scarce and dear enegry.

The bosses will deserve their $1 if they can pull off this transformation. Indeed, they would then deserve a bonus as well, geared to results and to getting out of federal support. If they cannot find a way to cut their costs and change their models at the same time – and it will be very difficult- even $1 could prove excessive. These companies now need great leadership capable of redefining them as leaders in the modern marketplace, and capable of delivering high quality goods at realistic prices. Politicians on the Hill were right to demand they sell their corporate jets and cut their executive remuneration before considering their request for support. It is just a pity the US and UK authorities did not take the same line with the top bankers who came seekng state aid in order to sustain their unrealistic levels of remuneration and comfortable corporate lifestyle. Instead the authorities in the Uk both forced them to raise equity capital more urgently than was needed, and then made it available to them without demanding the cost cutting you would expect in the circumstances.

S.O.S Save our savers

A year ago I called for much lower rates of interest to ward off mass redundancies and bankruptcies. The Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep rates high, leading unavoidably to recession.

Now we are getting the bankruptcies and job losses that were the inevitable consequence of their decision, they strangely panic and slash interest rates. This would usually be the right course of action, but in the meantime the government has decided to increase the amount of borrowing it needs to do by a huge amount.

This means the government needs people to save more to send the money to the government through National Savings, direct bond purchases and investment in bonds through unit trusts and pension funds. The governemnt also wants foreigners to buy its bonds, which means it needs to worry about the continuous fall in sterling which will put off foreign investors.

The government seems to believe borrowing an extra £16 billion to make up for lost VAT receipts is reflationary. If that money is saved by other UK people, they will spend less, so it has less reflationary effect than they think. In the meantime, if they are serious about borrowing such large sums, they need to offer the saver a reasonable deal. If the MPC carries on slashing rates from here without a thought for the huge deficit the government has foolishly decided to run, there could be trouble ahead. It’s even worse now we own RBS, as the deficit will swell if they lose more money. If they lose just 1% on their assets that’s another £20 billion the state needs to borrow.

Winnersh Primary School pupil wins John Redwood’s Christmas Card competition

A Christmas painting by Winnersh Primary School pupil Sam Pulleyn, aged 8, has been chosen as the picture that will be used on the front of Wokingham MP John Redwood’s parliamentary Christmas cards.

Sam’s picture was chosen by a panel of two judges as the winning entry in the annual Wokingham Christmas Card Competition, in which individual school pupils submit their Christmas themed drawings or paintings to John Redwood’s constituency office in Rose Street.

Sam’s picture will be printed on the front of Mr. Redwood’s Christmas cards. The back of the cards will also feature pictures by the four runners up, who are Aarron Ponsford (age 5, Shinfield Infants School); Henry Tompkins (age 9, Ludgrove School); Olivia Mansfield (age 5, Emmbrook Infants School) and Imogen Cowgill (age 7, Winnersh Primary School).

Speaking about the competition, John Redwood said: “I am very grateful to all the pupils who took the time to submit their drawings and paintings. The judges had a very difficult task choosing a winning entry, as the quality of many of the pictures was so high”.

“I would like to congratulate Sam, Aarron, Henry, Olivia and Imogen, and we look forward to seeing the final product which should come back from the printers soon”.

For more information please contact Carl Thomson on 020 7219 4205

Sterling is warning the government and the MPC

On Monday the slide in sterling got faster, with the pound having its worst day since the collapse following sterling’s troubled times within the Exchange Rate Mechanism that the British establishment had favoured in the early 1990s. This need come as no surprise.

The Establishment’s latest wheeze of a so called independent Monetary Policy Committee turns out to be as ill judged as the ERM. The ERM led to inflation first, then recession, by forcing the country to take interest rates which were too low, followed by rates that were too high. The so called independent Monetary Policy Committee has done exactly the same thing, without the excuse that they are on autopilot determined by the value of the currency. They have resolutely steered the vehicle by looking in the rear view mirror. They are now about to make their third big error, of setting rates too low for the extent of government borrowing and the fears in the international community about the UK’s financial situation. They left lowering rates too late, pushing us into a bad recession. Now they are taking undue risks, because of the fiscal expansion. Fear of low rates is one of the factors behind the sterling collapse, because investors think the UK is still borrowing too much.

The truth is that both the UK and the US are following policies which will force a cut in living standards. For years both these economies have been living well beyond their means, thanks to easy access to credit from the strong exporting nations and commodity producers who were generating big surpluses. It has been possible for both the great Anglo Saxon democracies to run large balance of payments deficits, large government deficits and large deficits in the personal sector. People and governments have spent too much and borrowed to do so.

Now the world’s markets are saying enough is enough. Living standards in both the public and private sector are being brought down by a combination of government policy and market reaction. The private sector has to sell more abroad and consume less at home. The government sector has to get closer to just spending what it can collect in taxes.

Whilst the recession will force the private sector to contract, there is currently no mechanism to make the public sector take some of the pain. The outgoing President, Mr Bush, is a spendthrift who sees no need to rein in spending at the end of a long period of overspending. The incoming President, Mr Obama, was elected to spend more. The Prime Minister in the UK thinks spending and borrowing more is the right thing to do in the circumstances, and is busily trying to bail out chunks of the private sector which would otherwise have to adjust more quickly to the painful reality that we have been living beyond our means.

On both sides of the Atlantic the authorities have made the decision that most manufacturing will simply have to contract, shedding jobs, closing factories, putting people onto three or four day weeks to slash pay. Meanwhile they have perversely decided to feather bed the bankers, who are arguably more inefficient and much more highly paid than the manufacturers. Both administrations have poured money into banks which should have been told to raise their own capital by reining in their expenditures. The authorities should have given them temporary loans, not permanent capital. I see no reason why taxpayers should pay bankers bonuses in these conditions, when the finance industry needs to get its pay down quickly to sort itself out.Far from being fair or just, so far the pain is being concentrated on parts of the private sector, making the job losses there worse.
Reading the atrocious story of Baby P sums up so much of what has gone wrong in the UK public sector. There was no shortage of highly paid managers, auditors, box tickers and process controllers. The more of these we employ, the less well it seems the task is performed that they are meant to be doing. The UK public sector needs to deliver more for less. It needs its teachers, nurses, doctors and social workers, but it does not need such a colossal army of pen pushers, time servers, mock managers and reviewers, let alone its battalions of spin doctors and management consultants. If the government wishes to speed the end of recession, it needs to start to get the government to live within its means. That requires changes within every service, and a very different approach to inefficient banks paying their senior staff too much.

PS: What a disappointing article in the Mail! As any reader of this site will know I have gone blue in the face trying to get the government and the MPC to take the necessary action to limit the damage and to arrest the downturn. The last thing I want is a cut in living standards and a recession. It is a bit rich for them to criticise me for explaining what is happening and what will happen – which is a fall in many peole’s living standards as the job losses mount in the private sector, coupled with pay awards falling behind this year’s inflation, when I have opposed the very policies of this government which have landed us in this mess. Try again Labour – that one was wide of the mark. It is my caring about the poor outlook for so many British people that leads me to write this blog and to urge policy change to help more people more quickly than the current lethal policy mix will achieve.