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	<title>Comments on: Recession&#8217;s over? There will be a sting in the tail.</title>
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		<title>By: Brian Gilbert</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2009/06/15/recessions-over-there-will-be-a-sting-in-the-tail/#comment-17763</link>
		<dc:creator>Brian Gilbert</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Jun 2009 08:46:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=3862#comment-17763</guid>
		<description>The changes needed are vast and will be argued against on the grounds that they will cause widespread suffering. New Zealand faced up to it in the early 1980s and found that the swings generally made up for the roundabouts.

The story is contained in &#039;New Zealand&#039;s Remarkable Reforms&#039; The fifth IEA Annual Hayek Memorial Lecture by Donald T Brash 1996 (56 pages)published by the IEA who hopefully will make it available again as a PDF download.

I don&#039;t think the Conservatives have got the stomach for it but UKIP might. Perhaps Mr Redwood should make a move?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The changes needed are vast and will be argued against on the grounds that they will cause widespread suffering. New Zealand faced up to it in the early 1980s and found that the swings generally made up for the roundabouts.</p>
<p>The story is contained in &#8216;New Zealand&#8217;s Remarkable Reforms&#8217; The fifth IEA Annual Hayek Memorial Lecture by Donald T Brash 1996 (56 pages)published by the IEA who hopefully will make it available again as a PDF download.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t think the Conservatives have got the stomach for it but UKIP might. Perhaps Mr Redwood should make a move?</p>
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		<title>By: Robin</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2009/06/15/recessions-over-there-will-be-a-sting-in-the-tail/#comment-17762</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2009 14:58:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=3862#comment-17762</guid>
		<description>I think that if you want to stabilise relationships its to educate young people into what marriage really means.

The failure (and yes it is failure) of marriage is that the state is not up front about what divorce involves. People take marriage too lightly. If they knew what divorce is they would be less like to get married. I believe you need to do some tests to look for potential issues before you get married. 40% of people fail at marriage. It would be better to get the failure rate up to below 20% before you start advocating it.

At the moment most men (I work on a trading floor) are strong advised by their older peers and fathers not to get married. Traders work long hours. Millionaires are 60% likely to get divorced and the law courts will take 75%+ of their assets that they have sweated for because the court believes they can build their assets back again. So why would a friend not say that all that hard work they are doing could be taken away from them - because they are working hard. Men aren&#039;t getting married because the contract sucks. The result is women&#039;s biological drives mean that have children with an insecure partner in their 30s when they get desperate rather than with a husband in a secure relationship.

There is a lot of academic work done into understanding why marriages fail. You may think it is nannying to advise people on the probablity of their marriage failing, but I would welcome a diagnosis of potenital problems up front. When you get married you are in love and often ignore the problems. Imagine signing a contract to buy a beautiful car that you have fallen in love with and not being told what the contract is?

The &quot;marriage contract&quot; should not be hidden from young couples. It needs to be writ large. There needs to be a legal document published every year telling you quite what your spouse can get away with. Couples should be given profiles and warned about potential issues. This is not nannying this is good advice for you to take or leave.

For example the day after you get married your spouse can sit on their hands and spend all your money and have many affairs and you are still obliged to then give them half your house and savings and they can even claim spousal maintenance - so you have to look after them for the rest of your life. In fact it gets worst because the better you treat them and lazier they are then that will be what the courts say that is what they should expect.

You complain about rewarding failure well in that case you should not agree with marriage law. Because it rewards laziness - simply because as you do progressively less you will get progressively more than the amount you put into the marriage.

You honestly can&#039;t expect to have a punitive damages to discourage divorce and not give best advice to those getting married? Marriage is to a large part a finanical contract and you never get to read the contract. You can lose hundreds of thousands of pounds even though you have tried your hardest and done nothing wrong. Family law is by and large secret. Cases are not published. Tell me of any other contract where this applies?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think that if you want to stabilise relationships its to educate young people into what marriage really means.</p>
<p>The failure (and yes it is failure) of marriage is that the state is not up front about what divorce involves. People take marriage too lightly. If they knew what divorce is they would be less like to get married. I believe you need to do some tests to look for potential issues before you get married. 40% of people fail at marriage. It would be better to get the failure rate up to below 20% before you start advocating it.</p>
<p>At the moment most men (I work on a trading floor) are strong advised by their older peers and fathers not to get married. Traders work long hours. Millionaires are 60% likely to get divorced and the law courts will take 75%+ of their assets that they have sweated for because the court believes they can build their assets back again. So why would a friend not say that all that hard work they are doing could be taken away from them &#8211; because they are working hard. Men aren&#8217;t getting married because the contract sucks. The result is women&#8217;s biological drives mean that have children with an insecure partner in their 30s when they get desperate rather than with a husband in a secure relationship.</p>
<p>There is a lot of academic work done into understanding why marriages fail. You may think it is nannying to advise people on the probablity of their marriage failing, but I would welcome a diagnosis of potenital problems up front. When you get married you are in love and often ignore the problems. Imagine signing a contract to buy a beautiful car that you have fallen in love with and not being told what the contract is?</p>
<p>The &#8220;marriage contract&#8221; should not be hidden from young couples. It needs to be writ large. There needs to be a legal document published every year telling you quite what your spouse can get away with. Couples should be given profiles and warned about potential issues. This is not nannying this is good advice for you to take or leave.</p>
<p>For example the day after you get married your spouse can sit on their hands and spend all your money and have many affairs and you are still obliged to then give them half your house and savings and they can even claim spousal maintenance &#8211; so you have to look after them for the rest of your life. In fact it gets worst because the better you treat them and lazier they are then that will be what the courts say that is what they should expect.</p>
<p>You complain about rewarding failure well in that case you should not agree with marriage law. Because it rewards laziness &#8211; simply because as you do progressively less you will get progressively more than the amount you put into the marriage.</p>
<p>You honestly can&#8217;t expect to have a punitive damages to discourage divorce and not give best advice to those getting married? Marriage is to a large part a finanical contract and you never get to read the contract. You can lose hundreds of thousands of pounds even though you have tried your hardest and done nothing wrong. Family law is by and large secret. Cases are not published. Tell me of any other contract where this applies?</p>
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		<title>By: Robbie</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2009/06/15/recessions-over-there-will-be-a-sting-in-the-tail/#comment-17761</link>
		<dc:creator>Robbie</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2009 09:47:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=3862#comment-17761</guid>
		<description>Great post Amanda.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Great post Amanda.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2009/06/15/recessions-over-there-will-be-a-sting-in-the-tail/#comment-17760</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jun 2009 20:56:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=3862#comment-17760</guid>
		<description>These Labour rats will sacrifice eachother without mercy:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124500992205413331.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>These Labour rats will sacrifice eachother without mercy:</p>
<p><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124500992205413331.html" rel="nofollow">http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124500992205413331.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: jean baker</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2009/06/15/recessions-over-there-will-be-a-sting-in-the-tail/#comment-17759</link>
		<dc:creator>jean baker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jun 2009 19:50:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=3862#comment-17759</guid>
		<description>I didn&#039;t say it was !   A return to sound economic control is the first step.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I didn&#8217;t say it was !   A return to sound economic control is the first step.</p>
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		<title>By: Man in a Shed</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2009/06/15/recessions-over-there-will-be-a-sting-in-the-tail/#comment-17758</link>
		<dc:creator>Man in a Shed</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jun 2009 12:26:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=3862#comment-17758</guid>
		<description>Sadly I&#039;ve just sat in a public sector meeting where the talk and action is all about employing more people into new posts.

I can&#039;t get over the idea that this is a deliberate trap being shamelessly laid by Labour, using peoples lives as pawns in their own desperation to extend their careers.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sadly I&#8217;ve just sat in a public sector meeting where the talk and action is all about employing more people into new posts.</p>
<p>I can&#8217;t get over the idea that this is a deliberate trap being shamelessly laid by Labour, using peoples lives as pawns in their own desperation to extend their careers.</p>
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		<title>By: Robert George</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2009/06/15/recessions-over-there-will-be-a-sting-in-the-tail/#comment-17757</link>
		<dc:creator>Robert George</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jun 2009 11:38:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=3862#comment-17757</guid>
		<description>John, the sting in the tail of this recession is called INFLATION.

It will start to bite in the third quarter and price increases plus incresed interest rates will have people screaming blue murder by Christmas and through 2010.

This will be the final straw which will destroy Nu Labour and will go some way to bringing President Obama back to reality. Neither Brown nor Obama can blame anyone but themselves for wrecking their own currencies through the foolish policy of printing money.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>John, the sting in the tail of this recession is called INFLATION.</p>
<p>It will start to bite in the third quarter and price increases plus incresed interest rates will have people screaming blue murder by Christmas and through 2010.</p>
<p>This will be the final straw which will destroy Nu Labour and will go some way to bringing President Obama back to reality. Neither Brown nor Obama can blame anyone but themselves for wrecking their own currencies through the foolish policy of printing money.</p>
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		<title>By: Adam Collyer</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2009/06/15/recessions-over-there-will-be-a-sting-in-the-tail/#comment-17756</link>
		<dc:creator>Adam Collyer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jun 2009 10:24:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=3862#comment-17756</guid>
		<description>I hope and believe that you, and he, are wrong. Marriage is not easy but it is vital as the bedrock of stable families. Yes of course if you are only concerned about money, then marriage doesn&#039;t make sense. But in fact the unconditional commitment it represents is about much more than money.

The trouble is that people who live together but are not married are much more likely to bunk off when the going gets tough, which it will any any relationship. That rips the kids apart, as well as causing major pain for the couple involved.

By the way, he&#039;s not quite right about the marriage figures either. The statistics are here http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=322

As you can see the decline really only set in in around 1990. Until then, the figures were roughly stable with a blip upwards in around 1970. Also, the decline does appear to be levelling off. Perhaps we should be asking ourselves what happened in 1990 to trigger off this decline?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I hope and believe that you, and he, are wrong. Marriage is not easy but it is vital as the bedrock of stable families. Yes of course if you are only concerned about money, then marriage doesn&#8217;t make sense. But in fact the unconditional commitment it represents is about much more than money.</p>
<p>The trouble is that people who live together but are not married are much more likely to bunk off when the going gets tough, which it will any any relationship. That rips the kids apart, as well as causing major pain for the couple involved.</p>
<p>By the way, he&#8217;s not quite right about the marriage figures either. The statistics are here <a href="http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=322" rel="nofollow">http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=322</a></p>
<p>As you can see the decline really only set in in around 1990. Until then, the figures were roughly stable with a blip upwards in around 1970. Also, the decline does appear to be levelling off. Perhaps we should be asking ourselves what happened in 1990 to trigger off this decline?</p>
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		<title>By: Chris H</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2009/06/15/recessions-over-there-will-be-a-sting-in-the-tail/#comment-17755</link>
		<dc:creator>Chris H</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jun 2009 09:10:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=3862#comment-17755</guid>
		<description>So sad, that marriage has become something merely about money, possessions and terms and conditions. So &quot;easy&quot; to hop from one relationship to another if you&#039;re not married. No committments, no strings attached, all the signs of the typical modern attitude. Marriage is the one thing that many women (and many men) still desire in their soul, even though they won&#039;t admit it publicly, for fear of ridicule from their liberal-minded peers. It&#039;s a spiritual thing. Society and modern life have killed spirituality. People dont want to make committments to anything these days, no matter what it is; marriage, payments, friends, whatever. It&#039;s too much bother. That&#039;s why many things in life in this country are so unstable, impermanent and totally unsatisfying.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So sad, that marriage has become something merely about money, possessions and terms and conditions. So &#8220;easy&#8221; to hop from one relationship to another if you&#8217;re not married. No committments, no strings attached, all the signs of the typical modern attitude. Marriage is the one thing that many women (and many men) still desire in their soul, even though they won&#8217;t admit it publicly, for fear of ridicule from their liberal-minded peers. It&#8217;s a spiritual thing. Society and modern life have killed spirituality. People dont want to make committments to anything these days, no matter what it is; marriage, payments, friends, whatever. It&#8217;s too much bother. That&#8217;s why many things in life in this country are so unstable, impermanent and totally unsatisfying.</p>
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		<title>By: Colin D.</title>
		<link>http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2009/06/15/recessions-over-there-will-be-a-sting-in-the-tail/#comment-17754</link>
		<dc:creator>Colin D.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jun 2009 08:54:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=3862#comment-17754</guid>
		<description>True, but to &#039;reign in&#039; is not the same as paying back the debt.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>True, but to &#8216;reign in&#8217; is not the same as paying back the debt.</p>
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