Monthly Archives: November 2011

             For the last eighteen months I have explained how the government’s strategy has been  based around a private sector squeeze – more taxes and higher public sector fees and charges – and continued real expansion of   public sector spending. Most people write about big cuts to the public sector, without accepting the overall position [...]

             The UK has no need to fear Germany. The UK has no need to be impolite to Germany. The UK should resist the temptation to lecture Germany on how to lead the Euro zone.              There are unwelcome signs that the UK/EU relationship is becoming strained. The Coalition  government seems nervous about the [...]

             The OBR as expected has revised its forecasts down considerably.  13 % growth has been reduced to 8.4% over the period 2010-2015, compared to my forecast of 7.5%. I fear they are still on the optimistic side for the last two years of the strategy, but the differences are not now so large. [...]

            Today we are told the OBR will produce far worse forecast figures for growth and borrowing.  That will come as no surprise to readers of this blog. I have argued for the last four years, from the Economic Policy Review onwards, that the trend rate of growth of the UK is now around [...]

            Most commentators on the Euro crisis assume that if Germany wished to save the Euro she can do so. Only the failure of the latest German bond auction has caused any doubt to creep in.           Commentators are right to think that Germany is now very powerful within the EU. The Euro lacks [...]

            This was the most difficult question I was asked on Thursday following my lecture in Oxford.           My reply reminded the audience that so far the EU elite had been proved wrong about the economics. Their plan to bring the economies together through the Exchange Rate Mechanism was shattered by the markets. Instead [...]

               The Parliamentary debate about the Autumn Statement is likely to be about the small numbers that have little impact on the scale of the problem. Labour will probably call again for a £2 billion a year bankers’ bonus tax, and think of ways of spending it a few times over on well intentioned schemes. [...]

Here are the slides from the Euro lecture: The Future of the Euro(All Souls).   Today we hear that Belgian bonds have been downgraded. Another day, another problem for the architects of the Euro. They are getting to the point where investors do not wish to lend to any of the Euro area countries, because [...]

Some of you have misread my point about top ranks in the navy and army. I do agree we have too few principal warships – that is a different argument. I was not criticisng the Navy for having too many senior officers. I was contrasting them with the army. The Navy has 422 officers of [...]

Peter Bone MP has just circulated figures from the OBR to remind us of the large leap in the costs of our contributions to the EU. At a time when government talks about the need for budget restraints the UK faces a 116% increase in its net contributions to the EU, comparing 2010-15 with the [...]