Brexit will be good for our economy

Despite the best efforts of the Bank of England to slow the economy, the latest figures for manufacturing output were good. In the last three  months to September industrial output rose by 1.1% . It was up by 2.7% on the year. September was a particularly strong month with a gain of 0.7%. the UK is a great base for manufacturing with a competitive exchange rate and a skilled workforce capable of driving industrial success. Inward investment has remained at good levels reflecting this.

We also read last week that Facebook is looking for 700,000 square feet of office accommodation in London to help its big expansion plans here. Google already has 1 m square feet of space at Kings cross. The new US giants of the digital world are growing fast. They  like the UK as a go ahead destination for their plans.

A positive budget for business and for consumers would add to the progress we are making,  as would a pro growth monetary policy. The opportunities for inward investors are considerable  as the UK considers how to use its new freedoms once out of the EU to create stronger industries in areas like fishing, farming and energy where EU policy has acted as a constraint.

I have often drawn attention to the contrast between what is happening and what was forecast by establishment commentators were we to vote for Brexit. Far from costing us jobs and losing us investment, we have witnessed jobs up and investment strong.

There is great scope for investment in import substitution, as we seek to put some more balance into  the large imbalance of trade with the EU which has built up during our membership.

65 Comments

  1. Peter Wood
    November 14, 2017

    The Chancellor should indicate a pro capital investment climate, starting in 2019. This should include the lowest rates of corporation tax cf the EU, the lowest rate of ‘gains’ tax cf the EU and I’d suggest accelerated allowances for equipment purchases at say 50%.
    This is both realistic to achieve and might assist the Brexit secretary.

    1. Caterpillar
      November 14, 2017

      Capital allowances make sense. Then move away from profit based tax to cash flow based.

  2. am
    November 14, 2017

    There is potential for good growth in the many fishing towns and villages around our shores. Farming needs a good shake up and has become lazy and subsidied with slipper farmers needing to put on some wellingtons and produce creatively for export and the domestic market. Plenty extra profit and good growth is to be had in thee areas.

    But our manufacturing destruction has to be reversed. Without it there will be no brexit boom and only the further destruction of uk manufacturing by cheap imports.

    1. libertarian
      November 15, 2017

      am

      We dont have a destruction of manufacturing in the UK. What is the matter with you people? Do you never do any actual research on your opinions?

  3. alan jutson
    November 14, 2017

    Whilst I agree that we should have a positive Budget to encourage investment, jobs and business expansion, me thinks our present Chancellor will simply see it as another tax raising opportunity to help fill the coffers so his inefficient spending can continue.

    The fact is that the UK is growing (slowly) despite the Chancellor, if he was to get out of the way, we may grow a bit faster for longer.

    1. ian wragg
      November 14, 2017

      We still have Hammonds budget which no doubt will be designed to cause a recession.
      Everything he has done to date has had a negative effect on the economy.
      If he cuts departmental budgets but agrees to a large bung for Brussels, there will be riots on the streets.

  4. Lifelogic
    November 14, 2017

    If you believe in free markets you have totally the wrong chancellor. How can free markets work if you tax landlords on profits they have not even made or have up to 15% turnover taxes on property, of have government pay and price controls and endless red tape?

    Let’s actually try free markets for real, they work.

    1. Lifelogic
      November 14, 2017

      The way to get more “free markets” and more money into health and education, for example, is to get more people to pay for these services with spend as you like education vouchers and tax breaks – or to insure themselves.

      Free markets so that for example employers and employees can enter free contracts that suit both. Without the risks of tribunals moving the goal posts, the uncertainty killing many jobs and businesses or potential businesses.

  5. hans chr iversen
    November 14, 2017

    There are no viable statistics that Brexit will be good for the economy. However, if you have credible statistics to refer to , then please present them?

    THe OECD, Treasury, EU and BoE seem to disagree with you and just because Twitter needs more room does not mean that import substitution is going to make the UK economy more competitive.

    The growth in manufacturing is great but as it is less than 15% of the economy it is not going to make a great difference.

    John , kindly explain how the examples you have drawn up are gong to make any significant change to the performance of the UK economy, as I have difficulty identifying the real opportunity on what you have presented?

    1. ian wragg
      November 14, 2017

      THe OECD, Treasury, EU and BoE seem to disagree with you ……………… that’s because they are all in the Remain camp and are wishing us ill.
      Roger Bootle and his think tank agree with John and he is usually on the money.

      1. hans chr iversen
        November 14, 2017

        Ian wragg,

        If, john had come up with some credible examples that we could all consider then there would have been a base for a debate but he did not do so.

        1. zorro
          November 14, 2017

          Are you looking for Mystic Meg or Septic Peg? Either way, the OECD, Treasury, EU and BoE were all HOPELESSLY WRONG in their forecasts/public statements about what the mere expression of a public vote in favour for Brexit would immediately bring upon the UK economy…… Let me say again HOPELESSLY WRONG….. Where are the extra 500,000 unemployed, ÂŁ4,500 cost on each family, spiralling inflation and interest rates…?

          zorro

    2. Edward2
      November 14, 2017

      How can you possibly have “viable statistics that Brexit will be good for the economy” ?
      Brexit hasn’t happened yet.
      All current comments are simply predictions of the future, some more reliable and less biased than others.
      But predictions nonetheless.

      1. Lifelogic
        November 14, 2017

        If you kill pointless red tape and layers of government, government waste & expense it is invariably good for the economy. The EU is hugely anti-business and anti-real jobs – we are far better off out. Better still if we can ever get a proper conservative agenda here too.

    3. Dennis Zoff
      November 15, 2017

      hans chr iversen

      You are clearly missing the point John is trying to make.

      15% represents the “now” with all the severe restrictive incumbent barriers that have been imposed on the UK manufacturing by a dysfunctional EU, who clearly have no idea of business.

      In my opinion, the EU does not care about business!…. for them it is about imposing an insidious ideology and manipulating nation state politics?

      Once the UK is rid of the bloated EU bureaucratic shackles, skulduggery and shenanigans, the enormous red tape, ridiculous protectionism and stubbornly obstructive behaviour, i.e, lack of international agreements, the UK manufacturing sector will flourish and grow exponentially globally!

      ….which is precisely why the EU mandarins are concerned and ultra-belligerent?

    4. NickC
      November 15, 2017

      Hans, Just re-read what you have written. Would you employ someone who comes out with your sort of evidence-free pessimism? There are no “credible statistics” for the future with no risk. Ever. As Edward2 said.

      Of course unfounded optimism is as bad as unfounded pessimism. So look at the evidence out there. You don’t need JR to hold your hand. Most of the world gets by just fine trading between themselves, and trading with the EU, without being in the EU. You have produced no reasons why we cannot do the same.

  6. Bert Young
    November 14, 2017

    Forecasts have inevitably played for safety in the judgements made and have always underestimated our performance in the past. I have not witnessed anything yet to justify downplaying our ability to succeed in an open and free market state . We have more reason to be optimistic than the other way round .

    1. hans chr iversen
      November 14, 2017

      Bert Young

      Going to the WTO solution that John is proposing is very far from a free and open trade system that we would all like to see, so that is not the right solution

      1. zorro
        November 14, 2017

        Hans, I know that you are going to tell me that the EU/Single Market is a ‘free and open trade system’….. It is not free and certainly not open as anyone who tries to do business in France or Germany will tell you!!

        zorro

      2. Edward2
        November 14, 2017

        But the UK proposes tariff free trade.
        I presume you are in favour?

      3. David Price
        November 15, 2017

        WTO is more free and open than the EU closed market so closer to the right solution than being in the EU – and less of a drain on our resources.

      4. libertarian
        November 15, 2017

        Hans

        The EU trades with other third countries via WTO right now, its two biggest markets in fact USA and China

        The EU single market in goods is a sick joke and there is NO single market in services ( 80% economic activity is services) . There is NO EU free market its a protectionist customs union.

      5. NickC
        November 15, 2017

        Hans, No, I would much rather use the WTO system for our imports from, and exports to, the EU. Just like we do already with the rest of the world.

        Unless the EU agrees to tariff-free, open, free trade – with no nonsense about payments, ECJ, unrestricted movement of capital and labour, etc, (ie zero tariff WTO rules) – then it will, by definition, be worse than the WTO option for the UK.

        1. bruce
          November 19, 2017

          NickC

          So who is going to arbitrate this tariff-free, open, free trade position with the EU if not the ECJ – do you want to create another ‘court’ as per EFTA?

          And even the WTO has an arbitration court (Dispute Settlement Body)

          https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/arbitrations_e.htm

  7. Nig l
    November 14, 2017

    It would be good to see money going to create and support cross government digital accelerator programmes, indeed why not create a post of Minister for Digital Accelaration. It seems that many in the public sector are still wary of the Cloud which will save them umpteen billions if they embrace it and the Internet of Things.

    Apart from the commercial benefits, the political capital would be excellent positioning your government as the forward looking innovators against Corbyn’s back to nationalisation.

  8. Kenneth
    November 14, 2017

    I think there are great opportunities to import lower cost goods from various parts of the world.

    I remember when we used to import some vegetables from Kenya. Surely it is better to trade with poorer countries rather than patronising them with hand-outs.

    Win-win.

    1. Caterpillar
      November 14, 2017

      Agreed. Customs Union is unethical.

  9. ChasE
    November 14, 2017

    It’s good to talk things up, it’s good for morale, but by itself it’s not going to make much of a difference- we still have to face cold reality- and at this time cold reality is to reach a solution to the three things holding up the exit talks-

    1. ian wragg
      November 14, 2017

      The EU doesn’t want a resolution, they just want our money. We should walk away and leave them to it.

    2. getahead
      November 14, 2017

      The three things holding up the exit talks were problems created to do just that – hold up the Brexit talks. The cold reality is that, although it would be convenient, we do not need to reach a trade agreement with the EU

  10. BOF
    November 14, 2017

    Good post Mr Redwood. The treasury should try to understand that Governments do not trade or create wealth. People do and Governments roll is to create the most favourable conditions with low tax and light touch regulation. Set the people free!

    OT Unbelievable listening to MP’s, especially some who are lawyers, who do not seem to care one jot about their own country. They should beware, my wife is getting very angry.

  11. Alan Joyce
    November 14, 2017

    Dear Mr. Redwood,

    I believe that in a previous blog, and please correct me if I am wrong, you suggested that new legislation would be needed if the UK decided to pay the EU a large divorce settlement as existing rules did not provide for lump sum payments – only for the monthly / annual contributions as a member of the European Union.

    It seems that the government will get around this difficulty by including the divorce bill, along with issues such as citizens’ rights and implementation periods, in the Withdrawal Agreement that the government has just said it will allow MPs to vote on before Britain leaves the European Union.

    Thus MPs, if they reject a divorce payment because of its huge size, will also reject the Withdrawal Bill in its entirety and Britain will leave the EU without an agreement.

    One cannot help but think that the Prime Minister has already indicated to the EU that she is willing to hand over say ÂŁ50+ billion pounds of UK taxpayers cash in order to get an agreement.

    Reply I think what they propose is to include any divorce payment in a Bill to implement any Agreement

    1. Caterpillar
      November 14, 2017

      Reply to JR Reply,

      Has the Govt published its assessment of the UK’s legal obligations, and how do these differ from the lawyersforbritain assessment?

  12. Hope
    November 14, 2017

    JR, you are correct in many of your views. You were spot on with the CBI on television. Unfortunately May is not listening to you or the likes of you.

    The CBI visit to No.10 was choreographed to help condition our minds and use the CBI (EU) view as a reason to cave in to a bade deal, that she said she would never do, but will do so pretending it to be a good deal and look at all these remainer bodies saying so as well.

    We even have Davis claiming the Florence speech was good! It was written/ edited by the EU stating how much the U.K. SHOULD CONCEDE TO GIVE IT IN THE FIRST INSTANCE! Has Davis lost the plot for power or kudos of position in Govt? One thing for sure based on the evidence and his comments he has not achieved anything for all the concessions and offers he keeps giving.

    1. Chris
      November 14, 2017

      I fear they all go native. That seems to be what happened to William Hague. Do you remember how eurosceptic he used to be all those years ago? That changed after being apparently educated in the relevant department of government.

  13. Mockbeggar
    November 14, 2017

    There was an interesting discussion this morning on Today with Simon Blackmore professor of robotics at Harper Adams university about the use of small robots to substitute for unskilled and semi-skilled farm labourers (often seasonal and from other EU countries of course) in weeding, thinning and selectively harvesting crops (e.g. strawberries so that only ripe fruit is harvested at any one time). Apparently 30% of strawberries are rejected as being not ripe enough for the big supermarkets.

    What he also said, was that while many of the small robots have already been invented, they aren’t being mass produced net. This is an opportunity we must not miss – as we have for so many other inventions developed in the UK.

    There will, of course be a great need for skilled engineers to maintain these many small robots.

    We nee to gear up for this opportunity now.

    1. Denis Cooper
      November 15, 2017

      I wonder how far the Japanese have got with this. Having joined my wife in watching an Australian cookery programme where they went to Japan and cooked out in the country against a backdrop of immaculately trimmed tea plants, row upon row across huge fields, it crossed my mind that maybe this was done by robots.

    2. libertarian
      November 15, 2017

      Mockbeggar

      There are at least half a dozen UK Agri Robotics companies building these systems

  14. Ron Olden
    November 14, 2017

    TODAY’S 3% INFLATION FIGURE

    This is EXCELLENT news.

    This or next month is the peak, following which inflation will fall steadily back to near the 2% target by the time we Leave the EU in March 2019.

    Given the size of the fall in the overvalued Pound 17 months ago, I would have expected inflation to peak at a much higher level than this.

    1. Nig l
      November 14, 2017

      On basis that Carneys increase cannot have worked through, did he get it wrong again?

  15. John S
    November 14, 2017

    I am no fan of BOE governor Carney with his doom and gloom attitude to Brexit but what are “the best efforts of the BOE to slow the economy”? Is it not likely to be more due to Chancellor Hammond?

    Reply Macro prudential measures – slowing credit growth, and a rate rise.

    1. Lifelogic
      November 14, 2017

      The banks are tied up in red tape, a rate rise, large bank margins & huge and over complex taxation. Plus the threat of Corbyn which look more and more likely given this pathetic soft socialist government.

  16. Epikouros
    November 14, 2017

    Anti Brexiteers have proven themselves to be bereft of rational thought and frustrated malice. Either they have used their misguided beliefs to predict doom and gloom and/or try to create it. A tactic often associated with the left; socialists, environmentalists, progressives and others. All prey on the ill informed, the envious, the credulous and the gullible in an effort to shape their thinking and of course achieve considerable success. Why should they not after all that encompasses a vast number of us.

    It appears being intellectual, clever or knowledgeable in a discipline does not obviate a person from lacking common sense or not being able to view things objectively. In their own minds they believe themselves to have clarity of thought and so do not recognise that they are trapped in a closed mind box and only need to lift the lid to look beyond their prejudices and bias.

    1. hans chr iversen
      November 14, 2017

      Epikouros

      I think your prejudices seem to be carrying a way with rationale argument?

      1. Epikouros
        November 15, 2017

        Maybe. I like to think that my opinions and beliefs are shaped by objective observation but then those I denigrate no doubt believe the same. None of us I suspect are without prejudice to some degree and I have this suspicion that those who protest the most about other peoples prejudice are driven by a higher degree of prejudice than those they accuse.

    2. Lifelogic
      November 14, 2017

      “It appears being intellectual, clever or knowledgeable in a discipline does not obviate a person from lacking common sense or not being able to view things objectively.”

      Indeed these things very often go together – the intellectual but daft as a brush approach. The “cannot see the wood for the trees” types. It makes sense as someone so obsessed with the very last details of some subject often misses the real picture.

      Dennis Healey as a very good example – Double first in Greats, joins the communist party and even later in life thought 98% income tax was just great for the economy. Lord Patton another such character. Balliol has much to answer for, they gave us Ted Heath too and we are still paying for and correcting the huge cost of his mistakes.

  17. Dennis Zoff
    November 14, 2017

    Nicely put John

    Simple really. Politicians pontificate, are professionally disingenuous, demonstrate obscurantic tendencies and in general, have sciolistic knowledge with regards to global or indeed UK business realities or priorities. Their understanding of international investment value or shareholder pressure is simply frightening! Present company excepted.

    Quite frankly, in my personal experience, they are apt to drain the lifeblood of aspiring companies and entrepreneurs! Unfortunately, a Politician’s natural raison d’etre is for self-promotion, enjoying taxpayers hard earned money and useless grandstanding with little else of intrinsic value!

    Hence why Politicians are mercifully sidelined in business matters, to allow professional organizations to get on with the business of real wealth creation.

  18. Chris
    November 14, 2017

    My anger at these MPs trying to do all they can to prevent the Brexit we voted for taking place knows no bounds:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/14/nearly-20-tory-mps-threaten-rebel-against-brexit-date-brutal/

    Perhaps they should be told by the Whip to go back to their constituencies and explain exactly what they are doing i.e. trying to bring this government down and let in Corbyn, because, make no mistake, this is what they are doing.

    1. bruce
      November 19, 2017

      My MP’s constituency voted 60/40 in favour of Remain; probably why he’s not answer questions on his Facebook account regarding his voting record with regard to Brexit…

  19. jacqui williams
    November 14, 2017

    I have read on brexit central an article by David Campbell a well known lawyer regarding Henryv11 and the brexit repeal bill he has said when we get that through parliament and it has the royal assent it can be challenged in supreme court by a Miller type challenge and the government would loose and so they would thwart brexit. Hed did, however state that if the government makes some sort of legislation this most likely would not happen this has couse me and my husband some concern as this is the last thing everyone wants. I wondered how true is this

    1. Denis Cooper
      November 15, 2017

      I read that interesting article:

      http://brexitcentral.com/henry-viii-clauses-new-legal-challenge-brexit/

      “Henry VIII clauses and the new legal challenge to Brexit”

      I don’t agree with his argument, but what I thought about it wouldn’t matter in the slightest and the author believes the judges would see it differently.

      So I agree the government should take the possibility seriously and make every effort to be sure it was closed off. Which I think can only be done by very careful drafting of the primary legislation, but not necessarily through a separate Assertion of Parliamentary Sovereignty Act as the author suggests.

  20. Yossarion
    November 14, 2017

    Comrade Corbyn´s tweet, May 2013: “Thanks Hugo Chavez for showing that the poor matter and wealth can be shared”.

  21. ian
    November 14, 2017

    Fantasies investing is what banks BOE and treasury are all about, egg on by the gov and politician. Gov bond comes first for them, which adds up to all the bad decision they have made in the past and as the debt is still going up, they will make looking forward. This on top of all tax they charge people and companies over the years, add to that no pension fund or investment fund for infrastructure building and has to come out of tax income. When you think they were the riched gov in the world and been going for hundreds of years, but have nothing to show for it, people.
    Then you the stock market, companies bonds, mortgages, and consumers debt to buy companies goods, where the companies are valued at 20 to 30 times book value and some 50 times book value with companies bonds lower than gov debt, in a world where mortgage debt, always rises, all fantasies economics and never ending money printing out of thin air.
    That’s why they won’t go far again because of there no money on any scale for small businesses, med businesses self employed and entrepreneur, for them they come up with P2P lending, all the thin air money goes into fantasies rather than the real economy, things that disappear in value overnight.
    In the old days, people built the infrastructure while the gov looked on and made all the invention, what we have today is companies which don’t do anything much and are just investment vehicles for thin air money, like houses.

  22. Chris
    November 14, 2017

    I suspect that Labour will not play the game quite as our Conservative Remainer saboteurs expect. I look forward to further gnashing of teeth and wailing from Morgan et Soubry.

  23. Andy
    November 14, 2017

    Brexit has already made us all poorer. I don’t want to be poorer but at least I can afford it.

    What do you say to those people who, because of Brexit, now have to choose between feeding their kids and paying the rent? I suspect you’d all be gutless and say nothing.

    Virtually no reputable economists think Brexit is anything but terrible in the short and medium term. Few think there are any long term benefits either. Not that Brexit is here for the long term anyway as young people don’t want it and will undo it soon enough. Sorry Tory pensioners, you won’t have the numbers to stop us for long. Demographics are awkward.

    Few business people think Brexit is anything but bonkers. Most of the exceptions are people who have fallen foul of European law (egs removed ed).

    Today Radio 5 interviewed someone who believes the Earth is flat. In the same spot reserved for the increasingly small band who believe Brexit is anything other than a monumental disaster.

    Reply Just not true. As there was no improvement in our growth rate when we joined why should there be a cut when we leave? Indeed our growth rate actually fell after we joined and after the completion of the single market.

    1. Denis Cooper
      November 15, 2017

      Young people get older, and with that they usually get wiser as well.

      Mark Twain may have had something to say about that:

      “When I was a boy of fourteen, my father was so ignorant I could hardly stand to have the old man around. But when I got to be twenty-one, I was astonished at how much the old man had learned in seven years.”

      1. bruce
        November 19, 2017

        I was recently shocked at work when a bloke commented that he couldn’t understand why businesses would be moving out of the London to ‘Ireland’ due to Brexit as they’d still be in the UK. On questioning he didn’t actually know that it is a separate country…

        And yes, he was the only Leaver in our office.

    2. libertarian
      November 15, 2017

      Andy

      What a steaming pile of cobblers.

      1) We haven’t left yet

      2) The job market has added more than 500,000 new jobs

      3) Wages are rising ( slowly but rising) inflation is static

      4 Give me one concrete example of how Brexit has had an impact on your life

    3. rose
      November 15, 2017

      Si jeunesse savait, si vieillesse pouvait…

    4. NickC
      November 15, 2017

      Andy, You’re obviously not troubled by the need for evidence, are you? Anyway, well done for your Remain rant of epic proportions. It’s brightened my day.

    5. Andy
      November 15, 2017

      Totally true. Your Brexit has already made your constituents poorer. A Brexit most voters in Wokingham did not want.

      Hard-right and hard-left Brexiteers in Parliament have massively damaged our democracy. You are riding rough shod over our constitution. You have made our country an international laughing stock. You have undermined society – turning old against young. And you are screwing up the economy. This is your Brexit. Take some responsibility for the mess you have created. If the Brexiteers in Parliament were not all so gutless you would be prepared to admit that it is all going very wrong. But gutless you all are.

      I find it deeply amusing that you haven’t figured out what this monumental mess you have created means for your party. A clue. When you can barely beat Jeremy Corbyn then you’re basically screwed.

      Oh, and I guarantee you, my generation will undo Brexit anyway. Shame.

      1. rose
        November 16, 2017

        Frank Field and Kate Hoey hard left?

        Boris Johnson and Michael Gove hard right?

        1. rose
          November 16, 2017

          “You are riding rough shod over our constitution.”

          This was done by taking us stealthily into subservience to the EU. It was also done in several domestic measures from 1997-2010.

  24. ian
    November 14, 2017

    Why is a real-world business only worth 1 to 2 times book value and mainly valued on property value if it has any, while turnover and profits are called goodwill and worth next to nothing, when you consider that the business is supporting a person and maybe his family while buying a home which could be worth 3 times what the business is worth, but the business supplies all the money for this person to live and buy a house. Companies on the stock market have 20 to 60 times book earning on future earning while at the same time most of their customers are max out on debt, their wages are not going up much and when you look into the future, which they are valued on, not a lot is going change, but banks will lend as much money as you want to put the book value of companies up even more where most of the profits come from accountants doing the books and share buybacks which put profits up by booking their own dividen.

  25. Chris
    November 15, 2017

    It is reported tonight that May is going to offer concessions to the rebels simply to win them over, presumably meaning that we are not going to have the Brexit we voted for, but some Soubry version. That is quite out of order in my view, hugely damaging to our country and to its prospects, and hugely damaging for the reputation of MPs, Parliament, and the Conservative Party. May, in my view, is not fit to be leader. She seems to be an appeaser, and she is on course for failure with regard to her promise to deliver the will of the people. Brexit means Brexit sounds very hollow. What a disgrace, in my view.

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