The dollar is surging against all currencies – this has nothing to do with Brexit

I see that the usual suspects in the pro Remain press and BBC are out and about arguing that the recent falls in sterling against the dollar are the result of Brexit speculations. What nonsense. The pound has been  very stable against the Euro in recent weeks, staying around 1.12 to 1.13 Euros to the pound. Sterling has risen against the vulnerable emerging market currencies. It bought 5.7 Turkish lira in May and now buys 7.4. It has been stable against currencies like the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar, not currencies which are experiencing any Brexit effects either!

The dollar is going through a period of great strength for a variety of economic reasons. It is proving very uncomfortable for many emerging market countries and companies that have borrowed in dollars. That is the story, not Brexit. Some of the journalists and commentators involved claim to be independent well informed people providing fact based  analysis, so can they begin by explaining these simple facts about recent currency movements?

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65 Comments

  1. Alan Jutson
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 6:22 am | Permalink

    Could be yet another another example of project fear.
    Could be lazy journalism.
    Could be simply uniformed and poor research.
    Could be complete ignorance.

    One thing for sure, it shows why you should never simply take for granted what the media publish or broadcast as fact without further investigation, which is rather more worrying.

    Soundbites and headlines are always designed for impact to draw you in.

    Whilst I am not a fan of Trumps twitter habit, I can see why he operates in such a way, which is rather a sad reflection of the World we live in.

    • Brit
      Posted August 17, 2018 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

      @Alan Jutson
      One thing for sure, it shows why you should never simply take for granted what the media publish or broadcast ”
      I agree!
      In a time of possible war though, our media has just sunk half our fleet, before we have had chance to mobilise for they would be in charge of mobilising.
      The Media is our Opposition Party!!

      • Hope
        Posted August 18, 2018 at 9:59 am | Permalink

        I never watch BBC news or current affairs. It is make believe proganda. Why have the Tories done absolutely sweet FA? Change its remit, cut its funding as a start. If still no chamgebthe make further cuts. It is meant to be a state broadcaster, it does not need so many channels or radio stations. It is has complete competitive advantage over private sector and defeats plurality rules.

        • Hope
          Posted August 18, 2018 at 1:32 pm | Permalink

          JR, it goes back to the odious May. Dennis has point d out so many times that govt,should,be addressing these false claims as part of its policy,to,leave the EU. The fact it does not speaks volumes of what May is trying to achieve i.e. Stay in und r a different badge by treaty forever.

          Get rid of her. She is an embarrassment to the nation, she undermines the integrity of govt,and dmshe onstatres she is not fit for purpose. The Treasury should be all over this. But we all know it has been engaged in fake reports as have the BoE and other quangos. These should be world leading organizations respected around the world for its intellect strategic nouse. Time to have that bonfire of quangos. The irony is they were established and changed to be independent from politicians! Time for radical change.

          Start with abolishing the lords, long overdue. May claims in your manifesto to make Britain the world lead in meritocracy, start with a small elected senate. A bar for anyone who previously was an MP, had been employed ina govt quangos or associated or friends with senior politicians.

          May to be investigated for the dishonest KitKat policy to hide costs and ties to EU. We voted leave she is deliberately acting against the will of the people and referendum vote by this dishonest policy.

          Only lay people to sit on the standards select committee to decide if MPs breach discipline. No more politicians policing themselves it has been proven to be too corrupt. No more secret investigations of MPs. Open Justice the same as everyone else.

  2. Mark B
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 6:25 am | Permalink

    Good morning – again

    Currencies like all commodities are bought and sold. If a currency is in high demand the value goes up. If not, it goes down.

    Nothing to see, please move along.

  3. DUNCAN
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 6:26 am | Permalink

    What I find deeply disturbing is that many of these commentators know full well that what they are saying is total nonsense and yet they continue to say it. The Remain obsessives are utterly shameless in their approach. They will say anything and invent any argument to support their position

    Of course the main issue is that this form of propaganda and those who pursue it have infected both the BBC and the body politic itself and so they remain extremely influential and own a platform to promote their lies

    We have to confront these people with the truth. The truth is the best disinfectant

    Of course to counter these propagandists we need a Tory PM that purges the taxpayer financed liberal-left and Remain strongholds like the BBC, Guardian and all the other public sector entities that feed directly and indirectly off the taxes we pay to the Exchequer

    That moment isn’t too far away when the British state either becomes moral and objective in its stance or embraces a soft form of authoritarianism not too dissimilar to what we see today

  4. Posted August 17, 2018 at 6:26 am | Permalink

    Mr Trump can claim a lot of the credit for the surging dollar.
    At the moment he is riding high.

    He is the most dangerous President there has ever been, though, because he is both impulsive and determined. I am not sure who is advising him either. He also tweets.
    This month he has not helped (see yesterday’s post) with Turkey.

  5. Lifelogic
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 6:32 am | Permalink

    Indeed, also the pound would be far stronger still if we have a sensible government with a lower tax, smaller government, cheap energy, clean Brexit and far less red tape vision. Instead of the complete opposite from T May. Also if there were no risk of a Corbyn/Mc Donnall/SNP disaster that T May and ‘Tax to death’ Hammond seem to be working hard to arrange.

    Hopefully we will have this quite soon.

  6. hefner
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 6:38 am | Permalink

    USD2, an £/$ ETF at 3600 at the end of March 2018, 4500 today. So have US economy prospects really moved up by 25%?

  7. Narrow Shoulders
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 6:46 am | Permalink

    Sterling has lost 10% against the Thai baht in a month.

    Don’t think it has much to do with anything other than the baht riding off the back of the dollar but it really makes me wish I had a crystal ball.

  8. Sir Joe Soap
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 6:49 am | Permalink

    There is probably some weakness in the Pound which wouldn’t be there if May had a determined plan like Mr Trump and stuck to it!

  9. Posted August 17, 2018 at 6:50 am | Permalink

    Leave needs a more proactive approach to debate.

    Simply outline the benefits of taking back control and don’t worry too much about the latest Brexit scare story.

    • Adam
      Posted August 17, 2018 at 6:59 pm | Permalink

      Yes, Peter. It is often the response to the scare stories that stimulates their creation.

      A ‘scare’ without response doesn’t.

  10. Kevin
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 7:05 am | Permalink

    I just entered the following terms into my search engine:
    why is the pound falling

    The first result returned was, “Why is the pound falling so sharply? – BBC News”.

    When I click the link, I find the article is dated 19th January 2016, five months before Independence Day, and contains comments such as the following:
    “The value of the pound has been sliding on international currency markets, declining nearly 4% since the start of 2016…. That makes it one of the worst performing major currencies, at a time when the UK economy has been considered to be stronger than many of its peers…. So what happened?… Last year, there had been an expectation that when the Fed rate rise eventually came, the Bank of England would quickly follow suit. But now that expectation has faded…. The current record low interest rate of 0.5% makes holding sterling less attractive and encourages traders to sell the currency.”

    Not a word about politics.

    • Mark B
      Posted August 17, 2018 at 6:23 pm | Permalink

      Well done. Post of the day 🙂

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted August 18, 2018 at 6:01 am | Permalink

      The sterling index had already peaked in July 2015, see the chart I offered below.

  11. oldtimer
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 7:18 am | Permalink

    How true! Brexit is a sideshow for the rest of the world.

  12. Bob
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 7:23 am | Permalink

    The metals markets are also weaker, which even the BBC would have trouble blaming on Brexit.

    The simple fact is that the USA now has a president who believes in his country and understands deal making, as opposed to a bunch of Quisling incompetents such as those currently governing the UK.

    The BBC have finally managed to pronounce Jeremy Hunt’s name correctly since he issued a warning that “we would regret a no deal Brexit”. As IDS already pointed out, there is no such thing as “no deal”, business will continue regardless of political meddling.

  13. fedupsoutherner
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 7:26 am | Permalink

    Brilliant John. That information couldn’t have come at a better time for me. We are due to meet with friends who are always going on about the exchange rate and how bad it all is because of Brexit. They have invested thousands in New Zealand because their son lives out there now. I get sick of all the hype that goes with world events that always seem in some people’s eyes to be attributed to Brexit. Rubbish!

  14. Bob
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 7:37 am | Permalink

    BoE foreign currency reserves now have more Euros than USD for the first time ever.

    A coordinated plan to drive down sterling at a time when people are buying euros & dollars for their holidays.

    Thanks Mr Carney!

    • NickC
      Posted August 17, 2018 at 8:57 pm | Permalink

      Bob, Given the state of the EZ banking system (NPLs etc), and the ECB sovereign debt buying prop for southern EZ states, plus their Target2 hidden subsidy, Mark Carney stocking up on Euros seems to be an incredible act of stupidity.

  15. Mick
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 7:49 am | Permalink

    The remoaner media, mp’s, people backed by a certain Hungarian-American investor, will blame everything on Brexit including the weather , unusual tidal flow , asteroids hitting earth, me not winning the national lottery, the fact is time is running out for these remoaners , there is only 224 days left before we leave and they are getting desperate so they will try and say anything to sway the public into pushing for a people’s vote so that with the backing of a certain Hungarian-American investor and the Eu they can keep us tied to the corpse of the dreaded Eu , but that’s not going to happen because there is life outside of the London bubble especially up north we’re we won’t be taken in like the southern snowflakes

  16. jonP
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 7:57 am | Permalink

    It’s scraping the bottom of the barrel when we compare our currency against the Turkish Lira The dollar is doing very well, yes, mainly because there is a madman at the helm and the US economy is in runaway mode.. but all could very easily turn out to be quite the opposite and in quick fashion..look at the Vix.. look at the type of populism Trump is courting, have a good look at his typical support base, and then consider the upcoming mid term November elections.

    All of the above is why some of us value the EU and Euro as an oasis of calm.

    As regards Sterling it will continue on at this time of uncertainty, probably losing a little more as the Uk economy slows coming nearer to the end of the year when there will still be no sign of a FTA deal and with Exit looming- nothing much to cheer about

    • getahead
      Posted August 17, 2018 at 6:45 pm | Permalink

      “Exit looming- nothing much to cheer about”
      Exit looming, a time of great cheer, I suggest.

  17. Denis Cooper
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 8:15 am | Permalink

    I might as well just copy and paste my last comment on this tiresome subject:

    http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/08/09/tax-rises-do-economic-and-political-damage/#comment-953456

    “As another aside, it is being claimed that the increased chance of a “no deal” exit from the EU has been enough to drive the pound down to new lows, so out of interest I looked to see how recent movements fit into the longer term picture, say over the past twenty years, and here is a chart of the sterling effective exchange rate index over that period:

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/fromshowcolumns.asp?Travel=NIxAZxSUx&FromSeries=1&ToSeries=50&DAT=RNG&FD=1&FM=Jan&FY=1998&TD=31&TM=Dec&TY=2025&FNY=Y&CSVF=TT&html.x=66&html.y=26&SeriesCodes=XUDLBK67&UsingCodes=Y&Filter=N&title=XUDLBK67&VPD=Y

    I would say the two most striking features on that chart are the massive, nearly 30%, drop from early 2007 to the end of 2009, followed by the smaller, about 20%, drop from the summer of 2015 to late 2016, with the EU referendum in June 2016 actually having had very little impact on that already established downwards movement.

    Apart from those two major events there have been many other, more minor and shorter term, fluctuations in the external value of sterling, of which the recent variations have so far been just another example of no particular long term significance.”

    I don’t think anything much has changed over the eight days since I posted that, I would just ask people to look at the chart before they offer explanations of recent major shifts in the overall external value of sterling which quite simply do not exist.

  18. Roy Grainger
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 8:37 am | Permalink

    One problem is simply the strong/weak terminology, it makes it sound like a strong pound must be good and a weak pound must be bad. Sometimes this is true and sometimes it isn’t.

    For example the Euro is artificially weak compared to what it should be given the strength of the German economy – possibly by 10-12% – as a result German exporters do very well and they have a massive trade surplus. However the Euro is artificially strong compared to the strength of the Greek and Italian economies hence their problems. Japanese policy for the past decade has been to try to weaken the Yen against the dollar – they have been doing massive QE for years to try to engineer this – in their case a weak currency is a positive outcome. A weak pound also seems to have been the BoE strategy for some time given the regularity of Mr Carney’s project fear announcements – if he wants a stronger pound then he can put up interest rates quicker to achieve it.

    The strength of the dollar is a result partly of Trump’s successful tax cuts which have not only increased total tax revenues but also boosted GDP to over 4% – this boom has also lead to the Fed increasing USA interest rates to counter possible inflation thus strengthening the dollar. Mr Hammond could learn a lesson from this approach rather than sitting there devising new taxes to reduce GDP.

  19. Andy
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 8:45 am | Permalink

    That’s right. All of the (many) negative impacts of Brexit are, in fact, nothing to do with Brexit. In the same way that none of the good bits of the EU are anything to do with the EU.

    Incidentally, I note that our new foreign secretary – who can not fail to be better than the last one – says the shock from a no deal Brexit will be felt for decades.

    What he does not say is who will feel the worst of this shock. It certainly won’t be the pensioners who largely voted for Brexit.

    It will also not be prominent Brexiteers like Lord Lawson, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Steve Baker and Nigel Farage who have all taken well publicised steps to insulate themselves from the adverse impacts of what they told others to vote for.

    It will be people like my 6-year-old son and 10-year-old daughter – and others of their age who are the real victims of the irrational inter-generational barbarism committed by their grandparents.

    • Steve
      Posted August 17, 2018 at 6:46 pm | Permalink

      @Andy

      “It will be people like my 6-year-old son and 10-year-old daughter – and others of their age who are the real victims of the irrational inter-generational barbarism committed by their grandparents.”

      Well was it ever any different ?

      Those responsible for damaging this country are either deceased or decrepit.

      The ones that got houses for next to nothing also milked the pension pot without care or consideration for country or future generations.

      They never had it so good, as McMillan said.

    • Prigger
      Posted August 17, 2018 at 7:01 pm | Permalink

      Andy
      I trust your EU passport is up to date? Try paddling generally south east in your dug-out. We know, your deeply philosophical dilemma. Should you choose an
      organic dug-out and this utterly destroy the whole of Brazilian rain forests or an inorganic one which would pollute the world with nasty plastic and end all life on Earth as we know it?
      We know your probable decision…stay here and moan.

    • Anonymous
      Posted August 17, 2018 at 7:26 pm | Permalink

      47% of your age group voted Brexit and did their bit.

      Stop blaming (demonising) old people.

    • libertarian
      Posted August 17, 2018 at 7:30 pm | Permalink

      Dear Andy

      Have you considered the damage you’ve done to the children and families of the 30 workers you sacked because we voted to leave the EU?

      Strangely as a pensioner ( in age at least) my companies are going from strength to strength and we are planning on opening new markets once we’ve left the EU and have some FTA with anglosphere, India and China

      Quite a lot of the world is nothing to do with Brexit, and a huge amount of the new technology, growth in jobs and innovations are nothing to do with the EU.

      Please supply, under this thread a list of the good bits of the EU , rather than keep up the poisonous bile against your parent and grandparents why dont you post about the good news from the EU, the amazing things that they are creating and making happen.

      Go on Andy go for it , the full ( straight) Banana

    • Edward2
      Posted August 17, 2018 at 8:09 pm | Permalink

      Living standards continue to rise.
      Record numbers in work.
      But for you Andy it will always be doom tomorrow.

    • NickC
      Posted August 17, 2018 at 9:08 pm | Permalink

      Andy, Your trivial reproduction of the manufactured fears of crystal ball gazers like the Treasury is risible. That you evidently believe such persistent forecasting failures is even more risible. Re-joining the EU, under new bi-lateral treaties with the EU, as Mrs May proposes, is Remain. You are intent on depriving your children of the freedom that comes with being citizens of an independent country. Your hatred of the elderly, and the young, to satisfy your own irrational and conservative fears is shameful.

    • Richard1
      Posted August 17, 2018 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

      But won’t they be saving £12bn pa (& growing),able to elect and remove the people who make the laws under which they live, be to the extent possible to be at least at one remove from the disaster of the impending collapse of the euro, be able to control the UK’s borders in the face of uncontrolled waves of immigration from Africa and the Middle East (encouraged and exacerbated by Schengen and EU free movement), be free of the protectionist, dirigiste EU regulatory regime & it’s high taxes, and thereby be better able to work in a free trading, mutual recognition based FTA system with the growing economies of the world? Have you considered those potential benefits for your children?

  20. Adam
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 8:47 am | Permalink

    Journalists might be independent if large nos of independent people accepted their views. However, many journos tend to cluster within audience & readership groups whose partisan preferences they are employed to nourish.

    News is now more led by the layman nearest the event with a mobile phone camera + a link to social media. Comments & analysis are prone to fragment in the same way. Old fashioned newspapers & other media clusters are likely to shrink away, with individuals of high repute each leading their specialist strands alone.

    • NickC
      Posted August 17, 2018 at 9:10 pm | Permalink

      Adam, No man or woman is perfect. Therefore no-one can be impartial.

  21. Rien Huizer
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 8:57 am | Permalink

    Mr Redwood,

    Of course Brexit has little to do with recent exchange rate movements. For some reason, people look at rates of currencies other than the core currency pair of the FX market, EUR/USD as if they are meaningful and autonomous. Currency movements are notoriously hard to predict in general and hence they are also difficult to explain by reference to events and theories.

    But I am glad that you are mentioning the remarkable stability of GBP/EUR. In fact, that currency pair has been trading in a very narrow range for over 14 months. Has been sitting at one of the outside boundaries (70-90, in this case close to 1 EUR + appr .9 GBP) watched by the BoE for quite a long time and only crossed the lower bound for brief moments, one during an event looking like an operational error of a trader or deliberate market manipulation.

    One way to explain (despite my personal agnosticism; there is a whole industry of modern fortune tellers called analysts that some people take seriously so why not impersonate one) this situation could be EUR/USD weakness possibly caused by events in Turkey and Italy (and heavy exposure of Italian banks to Turkey) coinciding with fresh uncertainty about the future degree of economic integration between UK and EU27. causing Sterling weakness. This would in fact result in strongly (but coincidentally) correlated behaviour. Another explanation could be that the market understands that the BoE is already in the early stages of damage control, looking at scenarios for the “no deal” chaos that could repeat could have a destabilizing effect on the markets for GBP . Such preparations would involve other central banks, etc I doubt the BoE would be less than extremely discreet about that, also given the likelyhood that ERG followers would make very loud and counterproductive noises if they had the opportunity.

    The key to any explanation of GBP movements currently is that GBP has become an umimportant currency for world trade and functions mainly as an investment currency, contrary to EUR , JPY, CNY agaisnt the USD, and in a different way than SFR, CAD and AUD. It is also very different from the currencies of the two other financial centres SGD and HKD. The Sing Dollar is controlled to a certain extent by the monetary authorities and the HKD is pegged to the USD. Since the UK is moving to a situation where London will be detached from its “home “market, the EU Single Market) and hence will become more similar to these Asian centers (very different from the US and Japan with huge home markets) its vulnerability profile will change accordingly possibly necessitating some form of pegging (in this case to the USD). But that requires a very robust BOP position which the UK lacks. So I would hesitate to believe any explanation given capacities, opportunities and continued uncertainty about overall policy direction of the UK implying a very broad range of outcomes.

  22. Kenneth
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 9:40 am | Permalink

    There is a gap in the market for “beacon of truth” media which the BBC could fill if only it’s staff gave up their political obsessions and propaganda.

    BBC fake news is an embarrassment to the UK.

    • NickC
      Posted August 17, 2018 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

      Kenneth, The BBC cannot be impartial because it is staffed by fallible human beings. The BBC’s obsessions: pro-Remain; pro-EU; pro-globalwarming; pro-abortion; pro-Labour; anti-Trump; anti fox hunting; anti-libertarian; etc; are now institutionalised faults. BBC staff are incapable of giving up what they cannot see. The only way is to demolish the BBC. All of us can choose to help that happen by refusing to pay the BBC Tax.

    • Licence Fee Payer
      Posted August 17, 2018 at 10:49 pm | Permalink

      The BBC has lost credibility with most of the world anyway. It gets it wrong for everyone on the planet. It criticises Putin when most Russians like him. The BBC never say one good thing about him. Russians like Putin for what they see as his good points. To say only bad by the BBC, tells them it is at least 50% Fake News. Also if the BBC lies about 50%,… the chances are it could telling lies about the other 50% which they hold to be true. Once a communication agency tells just ONE lie, it is finished ( except if it supported by a now increased TV licence fee..their disgusting letter plopped through my letterbox ( if I dare say that word) this morning and did not say one single reason why it had increased. 1984AD

  23. ian wragg
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 10:11 am | Permalink

    Stop being a spoilsport John. Everything bad is because of Brexit. Everything good is from the munificence of Brussels.
    When are we going to get a peep at the alternative exit document which doesn’t leave us 99% in the EU and paying large sums over to Brussels annually.

  24. Posted August 17, 2018 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    The main point is well made however the pound has reduced substantially in value against the Euro as I found to my cost when buying some yesterday for a trip next week to Germany, Austria and Italy.

    The value of the Euro went from 76p at launch to 69p and stayed at that rate for several years. In the two years before the referendum the rate varied between 82p and 85p.
    I bought a car in Italy in 2014 and the actual rate I obtained was then 82.9p

    This morning it was at 89p but the best rate you could actually buy at was 90.5p
    So, since before the referendum campaign, the rate has dropped by more than 8.4%

    A not insignificant fall and hardly justified considering the very real problems stacking up in the Eurozone.

  25. margaret howard
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 10:33 am | Permalink

    ” The pound has been very stable against the Euro in recent weeks, staying around 1.12 to 1.13 Euros to the pound”
    ==

    In 2010 it was 1.70 – a great success story!

    In addition the euro has replaced the pound as the world reserve currency.

    I wonder why?

    • Prigger
      Posted August 17, 2018 at 7:01 pm | Permalink

      China has lots of dollar reserves, lots of Euro reserves.
      China if in connection with other US financial bought entities, used them legally yet offensively could down the US economy. It is a theoretical hold on other nations. Things are not entirely straightforwardly simple as they seem.

    • libertarian
      Posted August 17, 2018 at 7:44 pm | Permalink

      margaret howard

      No need to wonder, you’re just wrong.

      The worlds reserve currency is in fact the US dollar

      In June 2010 the rate was 1.19 The highest it reached in 2010 was 1.2 why do remainers always make stuff up?

      • miami.mode
        Posted August 18, 2018 at 6:00 pm | Permalink

        libertarian, Margaret got her date wrong. It was 2000 when the rate was 1.70 when the euro had teething problems.

    • Edward2
      Posted August 17, 2018 at 8:11 pm | Permalink

      A quick Google search says the Chinese yuan is the world reserve currency since Nov 2015

      • margaret howard
        Posted August 18, 2018 at 4:12 pm | Permalink
        • Edward2
          Posted August 18, 2018 at 6:42 pm | Permalink

          You are correct.
          It say a major reserve currency
          Later in it says number three behind Dollar and Euro
          I would point out that the pound was overtaken a few years ago so not due to brexit

        • libertarian
          Posted August 18, 2018 at 7:08 pm | Permalink

          margaret howard

          As its stands, sterling is — alongside the US dollar, the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan, and the euro — one of the five currencies that are part of the International Monetary Fund’s reserve basket

    • cornishstu
      Posted August 17, 2018 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

      I think you will find the USDollar is still the major world reserve currency which replaced the pound around 1945 and the Euro doesn’t get a look in. As far as I am aware there are no Eurozone bonds only natinional bonds of those within the Euro zone.

      • cornishstu
        Posted August 17, 2018 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

        DOH! National

    • Know-Dice
      Posted August 18, 2018 at 8:24 am | Permalink

      1.70 doesn’t exactly help UK exporters or UK manufacturers.

  26. thebitterend
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 11:37 am | Permalink

    Yes there is an awful lot of insanity out there in the world..just saw a clip of IDS on Bloomberg still talking up the merits of going to WTO rules then while reading that Fitch the credit rating agency is not at all happy about this- they say a disruptive or disorderly departure could substantially reduce UK economic forecasts and the outlook for inflation and unemployment- so who to believe?

    • libertarian
      Posted August 17, 2018 at 7:52 pm | Permalink

      thebitterend

      Well the rating agencies were spot on with their forecasts in 2007/8 ….. oh hold on

      As far as employment goes we currently have 829,000 unfilled full time jobs, so I wouldn’t worry too much about falling employment

      Report from Financial Web

      Flaws in the Credit Agency Ratings System

      The major credit rating agencies: Moody, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings, Inc. have all been accused of poor credit ratings methods and practices. In fact, it is often said that the credit ratings agencies very nearly allow a company to purchase a good credit rating. While this accusation is somewhat far-fetched, there are definitely conflicts of interest in the way that the credit agencies do conduct their business and issue credit ratings.

      For example, the credit ratings agencies are normally paid by the organisation that they rate.

      So theres your answer the agencies find the stats to back up the findings that the organisation that commissioned them wants.

    • NickC
      Posted August 17, 2018 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

      Thebitterend, You will have to make up your own mind who to believe. But remember that most of the planet is outside the EU. And 98% of global trade takes place under the WTO trading system.

  27. ferdinand
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 11:46 am | Permalink

    Anyone who for casts wit accuracy will become very wealthy. Why are they then still journalists?

  28. Prigger
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 1:45 pm | Permalink

    I don’t have much to invest. I find I have less to invest after taking risky speculations or any to be honest matching gains and losses. I’ve never been into currency gambles. I looked at the variables and found I do not have 500 years of lifetime to even scan read them. One must know ones limitations. Time is money.

  29. Anonymous
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 2:17 pm | Permalink

    From the BBC inexcusable.

    Alas, after much huff and puff, they know Leave are not going to do much about it.

  30. Ron Olden
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 4:15 pm | Permalink

    I’ve posted umpteen times on Facebook about this myself.

    The BBC website repeatedly reports that the Pound has been falling in recent weeks because of ‘Brexit uncertainty’.

    But the truth is that the pound is nearly 2% higher against the Euro than it was year ago, and has been stable against all other major currencies apart from the Dollar, and those currencies closely linked to the dollar.

    There’s strong upward pressure on interest rates in the USA which is driving the dollar up, as well as a higher US budget deficit than previously planned, which is drawing more capital into the USA and forcing the exchange rate up.

    And the initial effect of Trump’s Tariffs might also be causing a flight into the dollar as well.

    The BBC is public menace. Yesterday it was reporting that two obscure football club Chairmen none of us had ever heard of (Burnley and Stoke) were complaining that owing to the ‘Government’s Reckless Brexit Policy’ they couldn’t buy immigrants to play for them any more, because the Pound had fallen and so they were dearer to buy, and they had to pay them, more wages in Sterling.

    I pointed out that both these towns voted nearly 70% to 30% to Leave the EU, so they should take up their complaints with their fans. Mrs May and most of the Government voted Remain.

    I also pointed out that they don’t buy players from the USA, and in any case anyone foreign player who’s and good and comes here to play for Burnley or Stoke needs his head examined.

    I also observed that some British blokes can play football as well, so perhaps they’d like to employ them instead.

  31. Addanc Monster
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 5:37 pm | Permalink

    How about a discussion of the application of public sector IR35 changes to the private sector.

  32. Prigger
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 5:42 pm | Permalink

    “LONDON (Reuters) – London’s mayor Sadiq Khan said on Friday he had asked the organisation that deals with militant attacks and disasters in the British capital to assess the impact of a “no-deal””
    For once in my life I am lost for words
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-london/london-mayor-khan-consults-disaster-planners-over-no-deal-brexit-idUKKBN1L212G

  33. Steve
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 5:49 pm | Permalink

    I just ignore the remainers baloney. It’s a load of guff. In fact the only thing it does do is serve to demonstrate how europhiles in government think we’re stupid.

    Their lies aren’t even good ones.

  34. Den
    Posted August 17, 2018 at 6:46 pm | Permalink

    We need only to compare the Central Bank’s Interest rates to determine a viable reason. UK 0.75% USA 2.0%.

  35. Lindsay McDougall
    Posted August 23, 2018 at 2:27 pm | Permalink

    The strong dollar is partly the result of ‘hot money’ going to America because its interest rate exceeds those of other advanced economies. Just wait until the Trump boom generates inflation.

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.

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