We still need a stronger recovery

GDP figures for July showed growth of 6.6%, continuing the recovery that started in May as the lock down began to ease. It still leaves the UK economy 11.7% down from the February peak.

Within the totals manufacturing is now down 8.7% on February. Areas like computers have regained all the losses, and pharmaceuticals are ahead. Trailing at the bottom of the pack comes transport equipment including cars, still down 26.7% on February. I have set out the special factors that are depressing this output in previous blogs.

Even more worrying is the continued poor performance of education and health. In July education output was still 21.9% below February. This will now correct given the successful return of most schools this month. Health output was still down 25.7%. More work needs to be done to get a full range of treatments, operations and surgery appointments to start tackling the big backlog. This should be an overriding priority of government.

Naturally arts, entertainments and catering remain very depressed as social distancing is continuing to take its toll.

140 Comments

  1. Stephen Priest
    September 12, 2020

    I am really afraid that our freedoms are never coming back.
    Everything feels like totalitarianism.
    You can only meet six people.
    Covid Marshalls
    Talk of a 10pm curfew.
    This is terrible

    1. Lifelogic
      September 12, 2020

      +1 Local authority martial law? A bit like the motorist muggers they employ but worse!

      1. Fedupsoutherner
        September 12, 2020

        Yes and now 60mph on some motorways because of pollution. Jeez.

    2. a-tracy
      September 12, 2020

      You only had to go into the City this summer to see how out of control young people have been with large group street meetings, loud music, jeering and general disturbance of the peace starting around 10pm to 2am in the morning on work nights. The police weren’t doing anything to stop it, the Councils washed their hands of the problem but people can’t work if they can’t sleep. They only need a curfew in areas with regular, repeated nightly problems, winter will probably put a stop to much of it as sitting outside on a cold rainy night isn’t fun.

      The spike in cases, why aren’t local BBC news giving the facts, which postcodes, what gatherings have track and trace identified so that people who went there know to be careful with physical distance. IE if there was an outbreak amongst people who were all in a certain shopping mall the weekend before – put it on the news.

    3. BeebTax
      September 12, 2020

      I agree it is starting to feel increasingly totalitarian. I would favour a new Brexit-type party emerging to provide a voice for the growing number of people who are worried and believe the government and opposition have overreacted to Covid and are eroding our freedoms.

  2. Lifelogic
    September 12, 2020

    “More work needs to be done to get a full range of treatments, operations and surgery appointments to start tackling the big backlog. This should be an overriding priority of government.”

    Exactly many a dying from this now. Also change completely the appalling dire state monopoly health care system we suffer from. Freedom and choices plus a level playing field. We should not have to pay many times over if we choise not to use the NHS.

    “Even more worrying is the continued poor performance of education and health.”
    Education need the same solution as health care. Ditch the dire state monopoly system and get freedom of choice with a voucher system and mainly independently run schools competing on a level playing field. Also an excellent time to cull the 75% of degrees funded by soft loans (often ending up as tax payer grants) that are virtually worthless. .
    Car sales clearly down mainly due to the idiotic green crap policies of this government.

    “Naturally arts, entertainments and catering remain very depressed as social distancing is continuing to take its toll.”
    Indeed but an excellent time to cull the state subsidised arts/entertainment sector. If people want these things let them pay and not expect other tax payers to pay for them.

  3. Peter
    September 12, 2020

    Indeed.

    However, with the limitations imposed on movement and long distance travel in addition to some of the general public’s fear, things are not going to improve quickly.

    We have not yet felt the full impact of unemployment and business failures.

  4. Bob Dixon
    September 12, 2020

    Yes we need The NHS to prioritise all treatments that are more serious than Covid.

    Who is at fault?

    How has this happened?

    How long will this take?

    1. Everhopeful
      September 12, 2020

      Until they have wiped the entire slate clean.
      THEIR dirty slate but WE do the wiping.
      And then they will BUILD BACK BETTER…true commie style.

  5. Bob Dixon
    September 12, 2020

    We need The House of Commons back in the chamber to hold the Government to account.
    We are being governed under emergencies powers.This must come to an end immediately.

    1. miami.mode
      September 12, 2020

      The recent Cabinet meeting in a hall as big as the old Wimbledon Palais looked faintly ridiculous.
      It seemed as though you could play a game of five-a-side football in the middle.

    2. BeebTax
      September 12, 2020

      I fear the Commons would not hold the Gov to account, as MPs seem to enjoy wielding their powers, or colluding in the misguided application of those powers. I think it will take citizen action to change things (pressuring reluctant or timid MPs to stand up for us).

      1. DavidJ
        September 13, 2020

        +10

    3. Everhopeful
      September 12, 2020

      Absolutely agree.
      Sir Charles Walker is of the same opinion.

  6. Lifelogic
    September 12, 2020

    Charles Moore is surely right. Why did Brendon Lewis say we were breaking international laws? As he puts it today:-

    “Yes,” he or she could have said, “the legislation we propose will conflict with Article 4 of the Protocol, but we fully intend to negotiate with the EU in good faith to achieve agreement. All we are trying to do is protect our positions.” Then that alarming phrase about breaking international law would have stayed in the mouths of others. Instead, it now gleefully leads every BBC news bulletin.

    Martin Howe QC does not even seem to think it does break international law.

    As to the dire 9% support Theresa May facts4EU correctly puts it:-

    Finally, we must say to the Remainer rump of holier-than-thou politicians, exemplified by Theresa May in Parliament on Tuesday, that had it not been for their crass incompetence and wilful obstruction of the democratically-expressed will of the British people to leave the EU, we would not be having to clear up their mess now.

    1. Sir Joe Soap
      September 12, 2020

      It seems a long way from that Cameron statement that we would leave the EU the day following the referendum. Clearly his cowardice was at the root of this sorry episode in our history, closely followed by May’s duplicity, and now we have people like Lewis brazenly making statements at odds with logic and our rights to move goods freely in our market. Whatever the law might be, it will come to a poll tax situation if somebody stops us taking stuff to Northern Ireland or any other part of the UK. Dinghies, inflatables, anyone?

      Wouldn’t you be encouraged wholeheartedly if you were on the other side of the table from this crew?

    2. a-tracy
      September 12, 2020

      Brendon Lewis isn’t up to the job.

    3. Sea Warrior
      September 12, 2020

      Good post – and with a fantastic ‘out’.

    4. Peter Parsons
      September 12, 2020

      Brexit is deliverable, just not on the terms contained in the rhetoric of the Leave campaign. The Brexit promises suffer from the classical Iron Triangle of project management. Once you deliver two things, the third becomes impossible.

      The only way to deliver Brexit is to compromise on something. May’s deal involved a compromise, Johnson’s deal involved another compromise. Scrapping Johnson’s deal won’t remove the need for compromise, it will just have to move somewhere else.

      After over 4 years, it’s about time Leavers accepted this and told the rest of us what compromise they are prepared to accept to “get Brexit done”.

      1. NigelE
        September 12, 2020

        In my time, “the classical Iron Triangle of project management” was always recognised as extremely poor project management.

    5. Andy
      September 12, 2020

      The withdrawal agreement was negotiated by Brexiteers.

      David Davis, Dominic Raab, Steve Barclay were your Brexit Secretaries.

      Steve Baker, Suella Braverman, David Jones were among the Brexit ministers.

      The withdrawal agreement is rubbish – but this version with the NI protocol was negotiated by Boris Johnson and David Frost. They won an election claiming it was ‘oven ready’.

      It was approved by MPs this January – virtually every Conservative voted for it. Virtually every other MP did not.

      The objections to the prime minister now planning to break the law come from all sides including prominent Brexiteers like Lord Howard.

      At some point you are really going to run out of people to blame for Brexit. It is your mess.

      1. Lifelogic
        September 12, 2020

        I would just have left and not signed the dire Boris agreement myself.

        1. Peter Parsons
          September 12, 2020

          And how would you have handled the Irish border?

          1. Edward2
            September 13, 2020

            Let the EU try to build a wall across the Irish border.

          2. a-tracy
            September 13, 2020

            Peter if the Eu want to negotitate a free trade agreement with the UK anyway, what is the precise problem with the Irish border?

            Ireland will be able to see trade flowing from the UK into their region of the EU, there will be import invoices for their exchequer to check won’t there?

            The UK has to agree to Ireland sending all sorts through our Country including unchecked lorries and we have to trust Ireland that is not within the UK or acting in our collective interests.

          3. Peter Parsons
            September 13, 2020

            @Edward, cancelling the WA and leaving under WTO rules makes a border necessary. An open, unchecked border would allow preferential access to goods coming across it, which is a breach of WTO obligations, hence my question to LifeLogic.

            @atracy, if the UK simply leaves and cancels the WA, there is no trade deal. Furthermore, certain transit rights are guaranteed at a supra-national level, they are not something the UK can negotiate on.

      2. Mark
        September 12, 2020

        The deal was “negotiated” by Olly Robbins under the direct oversight of May.

      3. a-tracy
        September 13, 2020

        Andy I thought Mrs May and Ollie Robbins and the remain parliament with people like Mr Lewis created the original WA which was voted against multiple times in the HoP. It only got through with the additional clause inserted.

    6. DavidJ
      September 13, 2020

      May was dancing to the EU tune from the start. Cameron was certain he would win the referendum; that is the only reason we got it.

      I’m still not sure of Boris doing the right thing; he has had more reasons than enough to walk away from the sham negotiations which the EUrocrats have simply used to call for ongoing control.

  7. Sea Warrior
    September 12, 2020

    ‘This should be an overriding priority of government.’ Indeed it should – but Matt Hancock’s team seems to be thinking that fighting the tail-end of the COVID problem is Job One. Hancock needs to start giving weekly updates – in the Commons or at the podium – on how he is getting on top of the problem. I have a cancer-stricken relative who has had no interest shown by the NHS, for that condition, for SIX MONTHS.
    I see that the Duxford Battle of Britain air show was cancelled yesterday. I’m guessing that it would have taken place in the open air. Our few, today, are senior politicians and civil servants whose response to a problem is to run away from it – rather than attacking the problem so that the many can get on with their lives. I’ll now go and watch some of the ‘Battle of Britain’ and try and get on top of my anger.

    1. glen cullen
      September 12, 2020

      +1

  8. agricola
    September 12, 2020

    The key to many areas of activity like travel , catering and entertainment are comprehensive, easily accessed testing. The automotive industry is a government responsibility, they trashed it so they must sort it. The route they are on, like HS2 is a bad one. Bad because it is fails to answer the problem in an acceptable way, the end product is not fit for purpose. I told you what to do yesterday so I won’t repeat it here.

    Normal , slightly modified human working behaviour ultimately rests on having a vaccine and using it. Until then we have testing and getting GP practises back to normal while utilising chemists is one way to comprehensively test, so the sooner the better.

    There always will be a doomsday idiot fringe, Extinction Rebellion, and those whose family habits means they act and live on top of each other. Prevention, prosecution, and isolation are the only tools we have.

    To be honest, from outside the bubble, it looks to be descending into a shambles.

  9. Steve
    September 12, 2020

    We certainly need a stronger recovery, the exact opposite of the policy being followed by this government. More lockdowns based on massive testing enforced by blackmail at enormous cost to the taxpayers is what we’re being told is next. We can also presume that the enforced testing will be followed by enforced mass injections of an untested, dna altering vaccine that could kill or ruin the lives of hundreds of thousands. These are not the actions of a government committed to any logical health and economic growth policies. They are the actions of a totalitarian regime that will use scare tactics and threats to crush freedom and create total dependency.

    1. Original Chris
      September 12, 2020

      I am incredulous that Conservative MPs have not risen up to defend us. Just a few squeaks which the globalist cabal is not going to heed. We live in extraordinary times where our “Conservative” government has apparently taken on the role of the Marxists in enslaving and controlling our society.

      Sir John, where are the MPs who should be saving our country from this devastating attack on the people of this country, and the country itself? If noone stands up for us, our sovereignty and the freedom to live our lives will be gone for ever. Gorbachev identified some years ago what the globalists were doing in Europe and he too was incredulous:

      “The most puzzling development in politics in the last decade is the apparent determination of Western European leaders to re-create the Soviet Union in Western Europe”.

  10. Mike Wroe
    September 12, 2020

    There is no way we can resuscitate our economy with the policies this government is pursuing. I make no apology for Yet again suggesting readers of your diary check in to http://www.lockdownsceptics.org every day to read of the continuing chaos our hapless MPs are creating.

    1. Everhopeful
      September 12, 2020

      Joined!

    2. Original Chris
      September 12, 2020

      Yes, I have been following the website. It seems to be a very sound. I am very interested in the article about Simon Dolan’s legal challenge to the rule of 6 with summary from legal team.

    3. Sharon
      September 12, 2020

      Mike

      I read this every day too. It’s highly informative and puts perspective on things.

      I think the government has really lost its way. What is Boris hoping to achieve? As with following EU directives for years, it would seem following the WHO guidelines hasn’t done our country any good either.

      It’s time for tough love . Instigate Conservative values, get everyone back to as normal as possible and put the virus in the box of nasty ailments we live with all the time. For those that need to be told- remind all to maintain hygiene, stay at home if you’re ill etc (All the advice us slightly older people were given by our parents.)

      And repeal the Corona Virus Bill. All these authoritarian measures are angering most people (the silent majority) and pandering to the others. And as for those poor souls too terrified to leave their homes – I’m not sure what can done, except some constant reassurance and proof that it is safe to venture out.

      Unless the accusation of this lockdown being a social psychological experiment is true?

      1. Original Chris
        September 12, 2020

        Good post, Sharon, and yes, indeed, there are a group of scared witless people, many of them elderly who have had their lives upended, not by the virus, but by the government, and they have been reduced to seriously nervous and almost debilitated people.

        I see it with some elderly friends of mine and their lives have been ruined, and that is before starting to face the horrors of meeting death alone, or not being allowed to be with your loved one if ill in hospital or care home, nor, until recently being able to have a proper funeral service, and places of worship closed off to us all.

        It is almost criminal what you, the Tories have done to people “in the name of science”. More and more people are waking up to the fact that sound science has not dictated this course of action/control over the people and taking away of rights. This is politically motivated and there is a powerful group behind this.

  11. Lifelogic
    September 12, 2020

    So the Governor of California says “the devastating wild fires should end all doubt about the effects of climate change”. The BBC usual one sided climate propaganda outfit informs us.

    What does this statement even mean? Nothing is going to stop “climate change” it always has always will. Wild fires have been around for millions and millions of years (and in cold climates as well as hot ones). If he thinks limiting man made CO2 to lower atmospheric CO2 by a tiny amount is the best way to stop wild fires in California then he is clearly a deluded idiot. More rain is the best protection and hotter air over the seas generally produces more precipitation not less.

    If you leave things that burn easily lying around soon or later they will surely catch alight. From lightning, discarded cigarettes, volcanos, arson, a car fire, electrical short, discarded bottles or something else.

    Let us hope the far from perfect Trump wins – at least he is sound on energy, climate alarmism and largely right on the economy and jobs. The democrats would be another Obama like disaster.

  12. Nigl
    September 12, 2020

    Well. It’s your governments fault and I don’t hear a peep of criticism or opposition from any of its MPs. The latest Rule of 6 is panicky, risk averse and based shows zero sophistication of strategy.

    I was reading reports from Portugal yesterday and from someone has come back. Apart from main centres of people there is as much risk as here, in my area zero, and they do a lot of testing, mask wearing etc. With your blind iron fist smash all approach you have ruined people’s holidays, much of their economy when you want a Brexit friend and are ruining ours.

    There is evidence that increasingly that mass insurrection is growing and there is zero you can do. Are you really going to arrest/fine maybe thousands of people for enjoying a family Christmas.

    Are you really happy that pubs etc cannot trade/will go out of business the only reason being your ineptitude.

    Evidential based local lockdowns yes albeit the reason is they have already ignored the rules and will continue to do so.

    On a related subject those people who called Boris stupid claiming his moonshot programme had nothing to back it up, are the stupid ones through ignorance. The technology is here now and indeed two pilots are shortly to be rolled out with more to come.

    1. Mark
      September 12, 2020

      Some of us will remember Monty Python

      “Rule 6? There is no rule 6.”

  13. Mike Wilson
    September 12, 2020

    What is ‘education output’?

    What is ‘health output’?

    1. Fred H
      September 12, 2020

      could it be ‘teachers working 5 days per week’ and NHS surgeries answering phones longer than 1 hour per day, and Doctors actually willing to provide consultations else we might as well talk to a robot computer answering service.
      Now there’s an idea….

      1. a-tracy
        September 13, 2020

        Computer says NO! Computer response says ‘Because of Covid restrictions we are working with reduced staff please be patient in the queue while you get sicker’

    2. Bryan Harris
      September 12, 2020

      +

      Statistics and damned statistics

  14. Adam
    September 12, 2020

    Absence of growth in transport equipment and cars is described as trailing, but if those services are less-needed now, they should be. Working to move things needlessly does not reach a better place. Work should go to where effort achieves best results.

  15. Hank Rearden
    September 12, 2020

    Forgive me for being stupid but most health outputs are the state spending money, so in purely economic terms. reduced hospital output is a good thing is it not?

    1. a-tracy
      September 12, 2020

      Hank ,I’d guess there has been no reductions of costs, wages, etc in the hospital/health sector so reduced output i.e. patients treated with total purchases/staffing/infrastructure/maintenance etc. Is now simply extremely poor productivity.

    2. BOF
      September 12, 2020

      I agree with you, but the taxpayer still pays much the same for the NHS to do a great deal less!

      1. Lifelogic
        September 12, 2020

        Exactly such is the state sector. They have no need to actually deliver anything of value that people would actually pay for. So much of the time they do not.

  16. Alan Jutson
    September 12, 2020

    Illegals crossing the Channel is up does this count, reported that 54 boats crossed yesterday.

    Still at least from Monday it will only be 6 in a boat, otherwise they will be fined .

    Meanwhile our boat manufacturers all on show at Southampton had their exhibition cancelled at a few hours notice, so no one allowed even to visit a boat there.

    1. BeebTax
      September 12, 2020

      I love that post. “6 in a boat”. Classic!

      1. Fred H
        September 12, 2020

        It was mooted to be 7 – but then someone said ‘ ‘ No, they will call it the Magnificent Seven and it becomes a joke’.

    2. Cheshire Girl
      September 12, 2020

      Alan.

      It was noted on Twitter yesterday that the BBC, and other media, were keeping very quiet about the influx yesterday.. It would be interesting to know the figures for last week.

    3. Andy
      September 12, 2020

      Shame. If you rejoined the EU you could send many of them back.

      Alas – you left.

      1. Alan Jutson
        September 12, 2020

        Andy

        I guess they think this is what the transition arrangement means, if so it would still operate both ways !

        1. a-tracy
          September 13, 2020

          đŸ‘đŸ» Alan, however, it seems the EU and France can just overturn their International agreements and withdrawal transition period legal agreements at will with no repercussions. No court that the UK can bring a case to? Why not as they are in breach?

    4. Mark
      September 12, 2020

      It has to be more than the butcher, the baker and the candle stick maker.

  17. Ian Wragg
    September 12, 2020

    Just as we start to recover the government puts us into another lockdown.
    It seems you’re determined to bankrupt the country.
    What’s the hidden agenda John.
    There’s no logic to what you’re doing.
    200 more across the channel. Is it displacement tactics you’re employing.
    Farage is on the case. Watch your back.

    1. Everhopeful
      September 12, 2020

      REplacement I dare say.

    2. BeebTax
      September 12, 2020

      We need Farage now, and it would be useful if he got involved in the discussion about our freedoms being eroded, too.

      1. Everhopeful
        September 12, 2020

        It might be useful if he actually said a bit more.
        But then, he is never there when needed!
        Why?

  18. Mark B
    September 12, 2020

    It is no surprise that education and health are down given that they are State controlled. The arts and entertainment have understandably taken a hit as these rely on footfall and mass crowds which government prevents. Catering will recover as we all have to eat and eating out / takeaways are possible. The car industry is affected, not because of a virus, but due to government stupidity and greed. An easy fix but we will need a political party that believes in private car ownership for all and not just the rich and well connected.

    The problem for the government is financing. Will it continue to borrow and print like before and hope that both inflation and interest rates remain low or, will it realise that it is going to have to spend less ? My guess is the former and that will result in less spending power which will in turn affect any retail recovery. And as the high street is under more pressure than ever before I expect more business to go bust and less revenue to be gained which, I believe, will result in more ways to fill the funding gap such as fines etc.

    The sad thing is, there is a growing distance between those in the State / Public Sector and those in the Private Sector with the government happy to allow the former to feed of the latter. Such as parasitic existence may work when the parasite is in symbiosis with its host but, as we have seen with the former USSR and others, when the parasite becomes greedy is will lead to the loss of both. It seems to me that we are on that very same path and those in government are either blind or uncaring to this fact.

  19. Everhopeful
    September 12, 2020

    Gosh..Johnson and crew are even losing support in The Times comments.
    One commenter even said that MPs should do their jobs and put a stop to this emerging police state!
    I guess that since they aren’t they must want it.

    1. bigneil(newercomp)
      September 12, 2020

      With police apparently now handing instant fines out – “police state ” is about right.

      1. Fred H
        September 12, 2020

        are they carrying credit card readers?

    2. Lifelogic
      September 12, 2020

      It seems they do.

  20. Dave, Spencers Wood.
    September 12, 2020

    You aren’t going to get a stronger recovery without sorting out testing. If you can’t get a local test and result in less than 24 hours, then there are going to be impacts to productivity. Especially if you want to see recoveries in education and health outputs. Sort out the testing, and be honest about the capacity! You can’t fix something if you aren’t honest about where it is broken.

    And once you sort out testing, you’ll then have more confidence in other areas. Right now, neither my employer nor our clients are planning any large scale return to offices until April next year at the earliest.

    Right now, my employer and our clients just don’t have enough confidence yet in the government’s handling of the situation to go back on site at a greater scale. There isn’t enough trust in your data. With no large scale return to offices, you aren’t going to see a bigger recovery in some town and city centres.

  21. Bryan Harris
    September 12, 2020

    Stop the ongoing excessive propaganda from the media to get a more balanced view — Some people are scared witless by the constant droning on about the virus. That surely has an affect on how they respond.

    Find an innovative alternative to lockdown

    Allow people to make up their own mind about how they can avoid being a statistic

    Replace the health secretary

    1. BeebTax
      September 12, 2020

      +1

  22. Nigl
    September 12, 2020

    Topic drift but current. Essential reading in the DT this morning by Charles Moore about the so called breaking of international law.

    Puts into context very sharply the agenda of the Civil Service, Legal Profession, BBC to continue to do everything to undermine our exit from the EU and keep us tied in anyway possible to the EU. The focus in the WDA also highlights The shameful approach of ‘Theresa Jay not forgetting her Cabinet especially Gove.

  23. Enigma
    September 12, 2020

    đŸ€” pharmaceuticals are ahead. Who’d have thought it?

    1. Fred H
      September 12, 2020

      supermarket purchased wines and spirits?

  24. Martin in Cardiff
    September 12, 2020

    It is evidently a problem for politicians like John, when the public cease doing the things on which they depend for their claims about the economy, and on which they could hitherto rely, almost as if they were compulsory.

    Sections of the media have done their best to shame people into living as if there were no health risk, as have commenters here.

    That, at least, has offered some light relief.

  25. Everhopeful
    September 12, 2020

    How on EARTH can we get any sort of recovery?

    The shops are being forced to run at about 1/8th of capacity. They must have been counting on gradual lifting of stasi rules. Instead the threat becomes worse with larger fines. Also a worrying mention of carting off family members who test positive…to hotels…WHAT??

    Do loads of “tests” with hooky kit and you get a load of wrong answers!
    ( I believe an MP said at the beginning of all this rot that he would not get tested because the tests are inaccurate). Very wise! Until of course they become mandatory!

    Schools are NOT back to normal.

    OF COURSE people are buying pharmaceuticals …in case we are imprisoned again.
    Beauty salons are running under the most bizarre rules and can not offer many bread and butter treatments. And on and on and on.

    For God’s sake leave us alone and let us get ill!! Let us choose our own healthcare!

    Only those in league with this treacherous bunch of chancers can know exactly what they want. But let us be very clear.

    THEY DO NOT WANT A RECOVERY!

  26. Lifelogic
    September 12, 2020

    Just heard Sir Roger Gale MP on LBC – why on earth is this deluded man still a “Conservative” MP? He sounded even more dire than Philip Hammond, George Osborne, John Major, Ken Clarke, Grieg Clarke and Theresa 9% May.

    Clear these lefty, remainer dopes out as soon as possible please.

    1. Ed M
      September 12, 2020

      Let’s have a debate about what True Conservatism is (and then try and do something about it – not just talk about it).

      To me, it’s essentially based on that of Edmund Burke – rooted in Judaeo/Christian / Greco/Roman principles.

      1) FAMILY. Focus on the FAMILY. like in the good days. Psychologically, healthy families means far, far less dependence on The State – taxes come tumbling down. Really. The evidence is all there. And that you should depend on family in hard times – NOT the state – and taxes come tumbling down. That’s the main way you bring tax down. Politics can only do so much.

      2) PATRIOTISM (related to love of family). A great virtue in the Middle Ages and Renaissance. What can I do for my country, instead of what can my country do for me. Again, this is ultimately cultural not political in origin – politics can only do so much. And covering things such as arts, architecture, looking after natural world, education, politics, the judiciary, the monarchy, the armed forces, looking after the old and vulnerable, and lots more – including business.

      3) WORK ETHIC. Look at what the amazing Quakers achieved in business here in UK. Again, this is ultimately cultural not political in origin.

      Let’s please turn to the Judaeo/Christian / Greco/Roman Conservatism of great Conservatives such as Edmund Burke – and avoid all the secular political philosophies of the 19th and 20th centuries that have got our world into so many problems – economic, socialism corruption, wars etc

      1. Ed M
        September 12, 2020

        There needs to be more cooperation between Church and State. Not where clerics use their power for their own benefit (the vice of clericalism) but to get to support the government get people to become more self-reliant instead of relying on the state so much. The Church (Protestant and Catholic) is there to give succour but also to CHALLENGE! And religion isn’t just a personal thing (it is) it’s also a collective thing (and not just about things spiritual – which it is – but things earthly as well – it’s heresy to focus on just the spiritual and ignore the earthly) – very much involving the nation as a whole (part of the virtue of patriotism). But sadly even clerics in The Church of England and The Catholic Church have, to a degree, lost the vision of patriotism as a virtue.

        1. Ed M
          September 12, 2020

          Lastly, in case anyone thinks I’m heretic for banging on about Patriotism as a virtue, here is St Thomas Aquinas on the virtue of Patriotism:

          ‘Man is a debtor chiefly to his parents and his country, after God. Wherefore just as it belongs to religion to give worship to God, so it belongs to piety, in the second place, to show reverence to one’s parents and one’s country.’

          And we see this patriotism born out in famous figures such as St Joan of Arc – we’re all called to be English Joan of Arcs – in big things, but more typically, in the little ‘ordinary’ everyday things that can amount to a lot.

        2. Ed M
          September 12, 2020

          Lastly, patriotism is NOT the same as nationalism. Nationalism is secular in origin (and mainly really post The Enlightenment). And we’ve obviously seen nationalism used for very bad purposes in very bad ways in the 20th century in particular. But it’s also wrong and heretical to deny patriotism as a virtue just because some have used nationalism in terrible ways (there is massive confusion over this in the world today which enables socialism and social liberalism to thrive as they do to a degree – which we obviously don’t want).

  27. chris hook
    September 12, 2020

    You must know that without changes to the Governments covid policy there can never be sustainable recovery. So why the silence?

    1. Everhopeful
      September 12, 2020

      Exactly!

    2. bigneil(newercomp)
      September 12, 2020

      The same silence as from our new Clandestine Channel Threat Commander as to how the armada invading the South coast is growing weekly? When the hotels are full, and the freeloaders families arrive – then what?

    3. Lifelogic
      September 12, 2020

      +1 and Covid is now a tiny part (circa 1%) of the overall death figures and the NHS is not remotely overwhelmed. So what is the justification more will die from the shutdown than from Covid from here on.

      1. villaking
        September 12, 2020

        A bit late now, Lifelogic. It is because of people like you hysterically screaming for a lockdown in early March that this populist government enacted it. The climate of fear it instilled now means that the majority still support it. I believe we will have another full scale national lockdown soon

        1. Lifelogic
          September 12, 2020

          Oh goodness not this again. Sensible measure to reduce the spread made sense (indeed they were late in taking action) when weekly excess deaths hit 10,000 or so. Not now though when they are circa 80 and we have better treatments.

          The delay and pushing people out of hospitals and into homes cost thousands of lives as was perfectly clear without any hindsight.

    4. too late
      September 12, 2020

      You must know that without changes to the Governments covid policy there can never be sustainable recovery. So why the silence?

      ….
      they were all marxist destroyers in the end

  28. formula57
    September 12, 2020

    Concerning CV19 and the economic consequences of adaptions thereto, I have been giving myself haircuts – with acceptable, fit to be seen in public results! Despite the resulting reduction in GDP, I am likely to continue doing so on the grounds of convenience and safety.

    1. davews
      September 12, 2020

      forumla57 – same here, not that I have much hair in the first place. I have decided I will no longer visit barbers, museums, stately homes and similar until the covid rule are removed, especially masks which I detest to the ultimate.

  29. Everhopeful
    September 12, 2020

    “Nuclear Winter”.
    Well this is a Communist ( or is it Fascist?) Winter.
    And we are well and truly in the midst of it.
    Should have voted properly decades ago!

  30. Mike Stallard
    September 12, 2020

    Yesterday just 67 people died after testing positive for Corona virus. (Up to 5 p.m.) All were over 45 and most had other complaints too.
    The Civil Servants, teachers, librarians, universities and parliamentarians are carrying on as if this was the Black Death of 1349. What kind of example is that?
    If you can catch a disease without knowing you have it, what’s the problem?
    (I am 81 years old and in the firing line.)

  31. DOM
    September 12, 2020

    Health and education. Yes, one of those areas of activity dominated by Marxist unions. Therefore no surprise to see the NEU, BMA, the RCN and Unite telling liberal PM Johnson that if he can pander to the BLM then he can pander to McCluskey and his Marxist allies

    Kinnock banned McCluskey from the Labour party in the 1980’s for his extremism. Today, he’s one of the most powerful political players in the UK.

    I suspect most of us now know that this Tory party is an anathema to all that we stand for and embrace and has been since Cameron became leader.

    We desperately need a party that exposes both Tory and Labour for the threat they have become to our nation and our freedoms

  32. Bill B.
    September 12, 2020

    So, to safeguard public health, your government brought in a lockdown that you say reduced ‘health output’ by 25%. An estimated 20,000 lockdown deaths are in that 25% ‘health output’ statistic. That’s 20,000 of people’s loved ones. How many more are going to be packaged into a statistic, if your colleagues in office keep creating fear?

  33. glen cullen
    September 12, 2020

    Interesting use of the word ‘’we’’

    We don’t need to do anything our government has all the control

    If our government repels the lockdown and instructs all public servants to go back to work the economy can start its recovery

  34. Iain Gill
    September 12, 2020

    I thought the government whips had promised you this was not happening?

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/motorway-speed-limit-of-60mph-to-cut-pollution-x87rqcb20

    1. Sharon
      September 12, 2020

      How would reducing motorway speeds reduce pollution?

      Actually, opening up the narrow roads to their former widths and so freeing up traffic jams would go much farther in reducing pollution.

      1. Iain Gill
        September 12, 2020

        yes indeed the anti car measures a lot of which are not visible with a slight dusting of snow cause more pollution than anything

      2. Everhopeful
        September 12, 2020

        Straight out of the EU.
        Their theory that cutting speed will cut “pollution”.
        Whenever there is a weird and unwanted law the EU is generally at the bottom of it.

    2. Fred H
      September 12, 2020

      do the same fools examine pollution levels in inner cities @ 20mph? Even 30mph is worse than 50mph.

    3. glen cullen
      September 12, 2020

      The Greens win again

    4. glen cullen
      September 12, 2020

      I’m really not sure I’ll have to check again but didn’t the Conservative win the last election

    5. Horatio McSherry
      September 12, 2020

      Modern cars are designed to be most efficient at 70-80mph using their “extra” top gear for motorway cruising (with various European countries’ speed limits). Politicians have failed to realise that a car travelling at 70mph in 6th gear – e.g. approx. 1800rpm in my car – is more efficient than it travelling at 60mph in 5th at approx. 2300rpm. (And for all the puritans, 60mph in 6th creates a stall).

      Never before has a PM being to utterly captured by the civil service and special interests, and in such short a time. I only voted for the Conservatives in order to prevent a Marxist government. I’m certain Corbyn’s ruination of the country wouldn’t have been so efficient or so deep on all economic, institutional, and cultural levels.

      1. Iain Gill
        September 12, 2020

        I am prepared to bet what the conclusions of this experiment will be, a completely unbiased report that all motorways should be dropped to 60 mph. Its nonsense science, its nonsense way to make policy, its a poor public sector. What on earth is the government thinking of?

        1. Mark
          September 12, 2020

          Tesla drivers limping along to eke out their batteries?

          Seen that several times on motorway trips.

      2. Edward2
        September 13, 2020

        If they travel through Birmingham using the M6 and go at the reduced maximum of 60mph instead of 70mph their vehicles will take longer to go through the area.
        Thus creating more pollution not less.

  35. Caterpillar
    September 12, 2020

    Obviously there are methodological (even more so than normal) issues with non-market contributions to GDP (education and health) and the distortions of job retention and self-employment schemes, so some numbers will be hard to interpret. On the other hand, as long as schools are allowed to continue and Sunak does not come up with any more unethical policies then we might get some reality going forward. The NHS numbers are clearly more real as they correspond to an actual drop of treatments to which there is a known associated historical cost – this will.involve the NHS getting back to normal and keeping Covid and other infectious patients and workers separated. There is no shortage of demand for delayed operations, there is probably a shortage of demand due to vulnerable patients being scared away (and GPs continued failing as a gateway) and perhaps some heroes believing others should have priority over them. The NHS needs to start saving the people.

    If the Chancellor had pursued UBI rather than making arbitrary value judgements of people’s lives then a more ethical policy would have followed that also supported economic adjustment. We can only see whether he again chooses to make things worse as the furlough scheme ends.

    Hancock and Johnson’s kneejerking around is not a sustainable approach and does not allow the economy to recover. They have kept promising jam tomorrow miracles rather than pursuing achievable adjustments.

    1. Narrow Shoulders
      September 12, 2020

      If the Chancellor has pursued UBI the cost of living would have gone up by UBI!

      1. Caterpillar
        September 12, 2020

        No.

        In the most basic interpretations the price level is determined by the intersection of the aggregate demand and supply curves. The Chancellor’s approach is to attempt to maintain AD whilst switching off AS, the old-skool root to stagflation. UBI seeks to maintain AD by redistributing some consumer power from the top to bottom, but leaving motivation to seek employment and hence maintain / increase AS. The Chancellor’s job retention scheme has paid resources to be immobile. (There is some worry that this Chancellor and BoE may pay fast and loose with future CPI – a reflation without prior deflation, with a drop of market efficiency due to confused price signals).

        Examples of funding UBI would be to remove many existing benefits, tax higher consumers (progressive consumption tax), introducing carbon tax with dividend, and potentially a monetary component. (The redistributive elements of the former parts indicate that there is no automatic need for the AD effect to out way the AS, and if it did at too low a level of participation then the motivation to produce is increased. If within a period the gap between production and income to consume the production is large, the gap is not fully bridged by personal debt but by the monetary component (e.g. printing!), but, roughly, this component only exists if there is a deflationary gap without borrowing. Etc.

        With the right level of UBI, minimum wage can be removed (reduced). Firms can chose to offer lower, but at the same time some labour pool might choose to decline the offer – the same mechanism gives flexibility for some companies to attempt restructuring, but at the same time labour to be mobile in the economy if its structure is changing.

        I agree with perhaps your implication that a left-wing party might just splash the cash blindly and if the velocity of circulation did not reduce then one might expect a price level increase as the motivation/enablement for a quantity increase is missing. Nonetheless that is not what is suggested, even if more similar to Mr Sunak’s current behaviour. A ‘proper’ UBI supports AD and encourages AS, it reduces people’s uncertainty but leaves those who want to work or innovate to do so. UBI is maligned because it is often suggested by ‘left-leaning’ politicians, whereas correctly designed it promotes a liberal market economics. Not only are/were Mr Sunak’s policies long-term damaging, he missed an opportunity to introduce UBI within a ‘right-leaning’ context, this is quite tragic.

        1. Narrow Shoulders
          September 13, 2020

          if you give the market more money to take from people the prices will rise accordingly.

          Look what housing benefit has done to rental and subsequently purchase prices.

          The only way to stop the increase of money supply using universal income is to tax those earning more so they do not get any extra money, therefore it is not universal anymore like child benefit. It is just a benefit like the dole.

          Universal basic income is the answer to how do I put prices up? Not how do I give the poor more spending power?

  36. Donna
    September 12, 2020

    We aren’t going to get a stronger recovery all the time the Government imposes ridiculous restrictions on the whole country, when there is no justification for it.

    They appear to be trying to deliver immortality for the demographic which the statistics show is the only one really at risk – the very elderly with co-morbidities. Perhaps they misunderstood the lesson King Canute tried to give the country in the early 11th century.

    They’ve wrecked the economy and are now driving even more nails into the coffin. I lent them my vote last year to get Brexit done. They’ll never get it again.

    1. Jim Whitehead
      September 12, 2020

      +1
      Three pungent little paragraphs of concentrated good sense.
      Last little sentence is of significance.
      I’m glad that I resisted the temptation to be beguiled regarding the vote. I voted for what I wanted and what I felt I could trust.
      BJ failed that test in my opinion.

    2. Fred H
      September 12, 2020

      The rich and influential stay that way (even in economic disaster, the plebs simply get more controlled)..

      ‘They’ve wrecked the economy and are now driving even more nails into the coffin. I lent them my vote last year to get Brexit done. They’ll never get it again.’

      What choice is there?

      1. glen cullen
        September 12, 2020

        Agree

      2. Donna
        September 12, 2020

        Well I’m hoping there’s a Reform Party to support. Failing that, it’ll be NONE OF THE ABOVE since not of the Establishment-approved Parties deserves my support.

  37. John Partington
    September 12, 2020

    Boris needs another clean out of Tory wets that have not got the bottle to stand up for this country.

  38. Narrow Shoulders
    September 12, 2020

    Health outputs down yet your government still thinks it is acceptable to charge 12% IPT on health insurance that
    we cannot use while also considering it a taxable benefit so I am paying 40% on the insurance and 40% on the 12%.

    Wedded to taxation I am afraid

    1. Lifelogic
      September 12, 2020

      Indeed we need a level playing field and not a system that makes you pay four times over if you prefer not to use the NHS. Freedom and choice please not a dire rigged state monopoly that kills thousands and makes million wait years in pain for treatment.

  39. Lifelogic
    September 12, 2020

    Allison Pearson in the Telegraph.

    Well done, Matt ‘we’re doomed!’ Hancock – Covid fear is now a bigger threat than the virus itself.

    It certainly is – just as the war against largely harmless C02/plant food is far, far more damaging (and hugely costly) than the threat of CO2 caused climate change.

    1. Lifelogic
      September 12, 2020

      The cures are worse than the disease.

      In the case of CO2 the cures (renewables, electric cars, bikes) and the likes are clearly no cure anyway even if you do think CO2 is the problem.

  40. BOF
    September 12, 2020

    i can only replay my broken record. As long as this pointless policy is pursued by Govt. the country can never properly recover (if it ever does). The Covid 1984 legislation must be repealed and all restrictions abandoned to be replaced by personal responsibility.

    Gordon Brown took ten years to crash the economy. Boris and his government have done it in six months.

    Yesterday I met a couple I had not seen since the beginning of the year. They are terrified and fully behind every draconian measure introduced. What is being done to the country, and where are our MP’s? The silence is deafening.

  41. villaking
    September 12, 2020

    Sir John, this comment will echo many others on here. We can not see a sustained recovery unless this wretched government stops its insane and brutal policies on coronavirus. You are one of our elected representatives and you are in a position to do something about this to restore our freedoms and prosperity. It would be very, very simple to get growth back, it is entirely in the hands of the government. Locking down Matt Hancock forever would be an excellent start

  42. Roy Grainger
    September 12, 2020

    As we have a largely nationalised health service why is “health output” down 25% ? Well, the answer must be because that is a decision taken by the government. GPs surgeries largely shut, elective surgery postponed, nightingale hospitals empty even though we have very few Covid cases currently – seems the government, and by extension the Conservative majority in parliament, are just fine with all that.

    1. Fred H
      September 12, 2020

      you meant ‘we had a health service’. I forgive the typo.

  43. Andy
    September 12, 2020

    The important thing about this Tory economic catastrophe is to remember who is to blame.

    This is Johnson’s mess. The man is a failed clown. But, most importantly, he is your failed clown.

    1. Roy Grainger
      September 17, 2020

      You’re saying he shouldn’t have locked down ? Plenty of people here agree with you for a change.

  44. This is it
    September 12, 2020

    What is happening politically is the closing verse of Revelation chapter 13.

    1. Fred H
      September 12, 2020

      In Boris’ (or Hancock’s) verse 7 has been taken to heart.

  45. Original Chris
    September 12, 2020

    Boris seems to be taking orders from higher up judging by his apparently sudden transformation into a tin pot dictator imposing controls upon us and withdrawing freedoms in a swoop worthy of a police state. His ideas about being “enabled” to “start the day” by having a COVID test is very frightening indeed. Basically test/vaccinations will be used as passports to access to going about your daily life. Accept or be confined to quarters.

    This is no joke, as so many people are realising, and the Marxist left, through the globalist political cabal, have used COVID to devastating effect. Johnson is a globalist, and an advocate, apparently, of one world government. Research it for yourself and see the agenda of the UN which our government subscribes to: Agenda 21, and 2030. Could be written by communists.

    1. Sharon
      September 12, 2020

      And the WEF (World Economic Forum) of which Prince Charles seems to be the Patron, are as bad!

      Their goal is vague but it all seems tied up in the green agenda, equality, diversity and ridding the world of racism.

      1. Original Chris
        September 12, 2020

        These global organisations all subscribe to the concept of one world government, and global edicts are what these apparently Marxist globalists will use to impose their order on us.

  46. The Prangwizard
    September 12, 2020

    The idea of health being an output to be promoted is surely wrong headed. It suggests there should be more of it but the aim should be reduce health related activities. It must be the aim of medicine to reduce and eliminate disease, to simplify and become more efficient with treatments of all kinds including for accidents. Trouble is the NHS and its strong supporters seem to wish to expand the number of illnesses, mental illlnesses being the latest growth area so we find natural anxieties and concerns are now classed as mental health diseases and systems are being designed to cover them.

  47. William MacDougall
    September 12, 2020

    I don’t see how the economy can recover when the Government continues to have an irrational and erratic overreaction to Covid 19. The sudden imposition of travel quarantines even on travellers from countries with lower rates of infection is very damaging to the travel industry and any international business wanting to see overseas clients or see their clients here. The “rule of six” and mask rules contribute to the panic that stops people from returning to work. Many businesses are still prohibited or at least prevented from working at full capacity.

  48. Dennis
    September 12, 2020

    JR – your recent blog ‘I voted for the Clause 38 override when I voted for the Withdrawal Act’

    As this Clause has never been mentioned in 3 days of relentless talk of the failure of Boris etc., etc. it appears that this clause is not in the WA. I thought that someone would mention it even just to say that it should have been included. Why wasn’t it included?

    Reply It was a central clause in our legislation interpreting and implementing the Withdrawal Agreement. The WA only applies to us because of the Act of Parliament.

    1. Dennis
      September 12, 2020

      Reply to reply – I don’t understand what that means but does it mean that Clause 38 has no weight in the argument at all? It seems so as it is never referred to.

    2. hefner
      September 13, 2020

      You should read on the gov.uk website the various ‘Insights’ explaining the bits and bobs of the ‘European Union (Withdrawal Agreement)’ making sure you get the timeline going from ‘EU (Withdrawal Agreement) 2019-20’ to ‘EU (Withdrawal Agreement) 2020’, checking what ‘provisions were substantially altered, removed or added’ (the site phrasing), how the old clause 36 became the new clause 38 with added ‘nuances’.

  49. ian
    September 12, 2020

    Your running out of road. China building warehouses and stockpiling all commodities?

    1. Fred H
      September 12, 2020

      Possibly due to international sales plummeting? What do they do with the excessive production?

  50. Ian
    September 12, 2020

    We voted to get out, we do not need a WA.
    The fact is fellow Sovereign s The tail is doing only what it wants, the vast majority of this Parliament, and we already know the Lords Are Remainers
    That being the case, that and there is only one party in this sorry ship , the three became One
    This is where we are friends, I would be over moon to be wrong, I can see nothing but the same . I see no Sovereign G B , I see no free Country, just endless E U, it might take sometime yet , but how does Something like USSR grab you all. .?

  51. Lindsay McDougall
    September 14, 2020

    There is a limit to the recovery we can achieve achieve:

    (1) Because our fiscal position is dreadful and we need to do something about it. Furloughing has to end.

    (2) Containing the virus involves social distancing which in turn means limiting public transport occupancy rates to about 30%, necessitating subsidy to an extent that we have yet to acknowledge formally or to put limits on. Once we have decided the limit of subsidy we can introduce car friendly measures into our cities – for clean cars.

    (3) We will never get health care expenditure – including staff recruitment and retention – to the required level unless we introduce modest charges to yield extra revenue. Free at the point of consumption doesn’t work and the fact that 85% of the population want to retain it is just too bad. If 85% of the population believed that the world was flat, it would still be round.

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