I have been very tolerant of the UKIP bloggers who regularly use this site to tell us UKIP is about to make a breakthrough. Unlike the supporters of other parties, they also write in a more party partisan way, a course of action more appropriate to confine during elections to proper leaflets under normal election expense rules.
I have been regularly criticised by UKIP supporters for pointing out their lack of electoral success so far in Council and Parliamentary elections. I argued prior to 2010 they would not win a single Parliamentary seat, even though they fought Buckingham where there was no Conservative, Labour or Lib Dem candidate. They have not won a single by election for Parliament either.
So let me indulge them again, by asking this simple question. What would constitute a “break through” for UKIP in the County elections? How many Councils would they need to win outright? How many seats in total would they need to take? Anyone can express a view, as it is the question UKIP have wanted us all to consider.
If UKIP members now think their party will not this time make a break through by winning control of County Councils, what would they regard as a good result? Is the main aim in effect to get more Councils into Labour hands, by taking more votes from Conservatives than from Labour? How many such results would represent a “UKIP victory”?
Memo: There are 2409 seats up for election. Conservatives currently hold 1477, Lib Dems 480, Labour 255 and Others 197. I think UKIP is defending 3 County Council seats, but would be happy to be corrected if I have missed some.