The latest polling on the EU is worrying for all those who think with one referendum we will be free. AFter a long period when those wanting out have exceeded those wanting to stay in by at least 10% and sometimes by 20%, the current polls show Out and In tied around 40% each.
It implies that the continuous false propaganda from a handful of senior business people at the CBI that membership of the EU is crucial to jobs and future prosperity is having some impact. The arguments that Germany and the others would not wish to lose their profitable exports to us and would come to a sensible trade arrangement with us do not get a sufficient hearing. The BBC is ever ready, along with some other media, to run and re-run the tired old arguments that we would lose 3 million export based jobs the day we left, without ever pausing to see how absurd this idea is.
The German Finance Minister himself has said Germany would want a trade agreement with the UK if we voted to leave. Of course they would, as their large exports of cars to us would otherwise be at risk. If Germany needs tariff freee access to our car market, as she clearly does, she would have to grant us continuing tariff freee access for our vehicles to the EU, the one demand our UK based motor manufacturers legitimately make. I find it odd that anyone thinks this would not happen.
Polling does also show that people are worried by the free movement of people, and apprehensive about further mandatory border easing in January next year. Whilst a large majority dislike this policy, it is curious that at least at the moment in the wider polling it is not sufficient reason for more to want to vote for Out.
It all goes to show that the UK can only reliably have a new relationship with the EU which is much less intrusive and frees us to have our own borders, energy and criminal justice policies if a government wins the election that can negotiate such a new deal, or can demonstrate that such a negotiation is not possible and that exit is therefore our best option. Today, with no negotiations allowed, the public is by no means united in simply wishing to leave.
Several of you will now doubtless wish to shoot the messenger, or attribute false motives to me. I merely report political reality as it is. You need to understand it if you are going to help extricate us from EU control.