The Autumn Statement forecasts higher tax revenues in every year of this Parliament compared with the March 2015 budget. In total the new estimates show us paying an extra £105 billion in tax over the five years, with increases of 4% in tax revenue compared to March forecast in both 2017-18 and 2018-19, with smaller increases in the other years.
The forecasts also show an increase in other receipts, mainly the gross operating surplus on public sector trading, which more than offsets the increase in the UK’s own resources contribution to the EU which rises by 29% for the five years compared to the March figure.
Capital Gains tax receipts are now forecast to be 6.4% lower over the five years than the March forecast, reflecting the Treasury’s inability to model the impact of higher rates on revenue. They have had to progressively lower these forecasts in the light of experience and have done so again.
There are strong gains in VAT, in National Insurance and in Income Tax, though self assessment income tax is now forecast to bring in less this year than the March estimate.