Pensioner benefits safe with Brexit

Mr Cameron’s extraordinary claim that the triple lock to ensure an increase in state pensions each year might not be safe on Brexit is wrong for two obvious reasons.

Firstly, Conservative MPs promised it in the last election and have voted it through. Most of us will not be voting to remove it, nor will the opposition parties.

Secondly, we will be a little bit better off out, when we can spend the net contributions from the EU which we do not get back on our own priorities. This will give our economy a 0.6% boost, not a decline.

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  1. Cheshire Girl
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 6:01 am | Permalink

    Well, this is one to get at the ‘oldies’ (like me) isn’t it? Because we are more likely to get out and vote. I hope it doesn’t work. In fact I hope it backfires! There is never any element of ‘we can’t afford it’ when they are giving money away on their pet projects.

    I’m still voting OUT!

    • DaveM
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 8:36 am | Permalink

      It won’t work – Cameron has misjudged the British people so badly on every front.

      • Hope
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 11:56 am | Permalink

        Th shyste Cameron says he might have to break manifesto pledges if we vote to leave! Is he joking or mad? How many pledges has he broken to stay in the EU i.e. Cash from the unions for dropping changes to union laws! He will not pay foreigners child benefit if they have not set foot in this country, he failed to achieve this in his non negotiation. Why did Marr not pick him up on these? Why did Marr not pick up Cameron on his warnings about the EU when a backbencher or in opposition in stark contrast to his comments now? Which warning should we accept that we would be a province of the EU superstate as Cameron claimed or a little Englanders for leaving! You cannot beleive a word this shyster says.

        No one should pay for a TV license full stop! It is a propaganda machine for the govt keeping Luvvies in over paid jobs.

        • Lifelogic
          Posted June 12, 2016 at 3:57 pm | Permalink


          You ask:-

          Why did Marr not pick him up on these? Why did Marr not pick up Cameron on his warnings about the EU when a backbencher or in opposition in stark contrast to his comments now?

          Because the man is alas a pathetic “BBC think” lefty incapable of asking anything challenging of the remain side. Contrast it with his equally daft and hugely biased agenda in his interview with Farage.

          The man is BBC think to the core. Lefty, big state, high taxes, ever more EU, ever more government, more magic money tree economics and endless pushers of climate alarmist and other scare scams.

          Of course it means he can get to interview Cameron. This as Cameron would never dare to be interviewed by Andrew Neil or any intelligent person in the centre or to the right of the spectrum.

        • Lifelogic
          Posted June 12, 2016 at 6:59 pm | Permalink

          The BBC certainly is a propaganda machine to support the agenda of people like Cameron, Clegg and other Libdem types. Also to keep countless leftie luvvies in over paid jobs.

          The BBC agenda is Pro EU, pro climate alarmist, pro magic money economics, pro ever higher taxes, pro more and more government, pro ever more regulation & PC drivel, pro the fake “equality” agenda, pro the dysfunction and dire NHS and pro open door EU immigration.

      • Hope
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

        It is very interesting that May has not shown her insidious view on remaining in the EU? Would it be that she might be asked about her total failure of border conttols letting in any and everyone who turns up on he shore. Today we red that judge decided to let an illegall immigrant stay and bring his family with him! Utter madness! What about e deport first appeal later b..locks?

        Reply Mrs May us a committed EUphile and has been out campaigning to keep us in

        • Hope
          Posted June 12, 2016 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

          Not put forward for main TV debates. Anything to try to keep the debate away from immigration, the person responsible for govt immigration policy, one failure named Teresa May!

        • zorro
          Posted June 12, 2016 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

          Hope, as JR says, she is committed to EU Remain but has been very quiet recently. This is probably in a misguided attempt to think that she has a chance of leading the Tory party once she gets back to the coast off her dinghy. I am sure that she will soon be disabused of that notion.

          The incident to which you refer concerns a ‘child’ who will be allowed to bring their family to the Uk as it will be contrary to ECHR Article 8 (in the judge’s opinion) to remove him.


      • Lifelogic
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 1:24 pm | Permalink

        Indeed the man is totally out of touch with reality on the ground, where wages are depressed by open door low paid, immigration, the NHS is appalling, overloaded and getting worse, schools hugely overloaded, housing demand is not met, roads falling to pieces and over crouded, crime is up, police take little or no action…..

    • Dioclese
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 9:01 am | Permalink

      And this morning they’re rolling out free bus passes and TV licenses to frighten the oldies. I wonder how much lower they can sink!

      What next? Child benefit would be my guess to frighten the families…

      • Dioclese
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 9:13 am | Permalink

        Actually, they’ll probably scare us about free prescriptions for pensioners before moving on to child benefit.

        Anyone want to open a book on it?

        • Hope
          Posted June 12, 2016 at 12:11 pm | Permalink

          JR, what happens if the vote is very close? What will happen to appease the population and will shyster Cameron go either way? I still have difficulty understanding why anyone in your party would want him, Osborne or May to stay in office.

      • APL
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 10:05 am | Permalink

        Dioclese: “What next? ”

        If we vote leave, the sky will fall!

      • Nick
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 10:26 am | Permalink

        War – tick
        Pestilence – tick [Can’t fight Zika unless we are in]
        Famine – people will go hungry – tick.

        That leaves death.

        We’ll have an exodus.

        That leaves the plague of locusts, death of your first born, …

        Play David Cameron’s Remain Bingo game.

        Eyes down for a full house.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 10:31 am | Permalink

        There will be much more as Brexit takes the lead they are in the sewers already.

      • Jerry
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 10:37 am | Permalink

        @Dioclese; “What next? Child benefit would be my guess to frighten the families…”

        They have already done the “let’s frighten the families” number, remember the scare story that Brexit will cost every family £x,000 each year (can’t remember the exact amount as it was so ludicrous)?

        • zorro
          Posted June 12, 2016 at 6:19 pm | Permalink

          £4,300 for each and every family – ridiculous….


      • oldtimer
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 11:12 am | Permalink

        How about a mandatory DNR label attached to your wrist each time you enter A and E? And if that does not do the job of scaring you witless, compulsory euthanasia for every one over 75.

        • Lifelogic
          Posted June 13, 2016 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

          “Compulsory euthanasia for every one over 75”

          The NHS is getting fairly close to this already at many hospitals?

          Try getting cataract or similar minor surgery over that age without huge delays and obstacles.

      • Narrow Shoulders
        Posted June 13, 2016 at 7:08 am | Permalink

        Child benefit is no longer a universal benefit so threatening removal has a smaller demographic.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 10:42 am | Permalink

      Pet project like pointless wind farms and PV subsidies, often corrupt overseas aid, pointless counterproductive wars, class war in the name of “equality” and “diversity”.

  2. Lifelogic
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 6:05 am | Permalink

    Of course it is wrong, it was said by Cameron and remainers. The problem the remain side has is that the more the public listen to their sill & duff arguments the more they are sure they are they want to leave.

    The UK will not just be a little better off, it will be probably be a lot better off especially in the medium to long run. A nimble, democratic government acting in the UK’s interests for a change, no common entry tariffs, free trade with the world, far less red tape, much cheaper energy, cheaper imports, a sensible chancellor (to replace the economic illiterate, ever higher taxes, pension and landlord mugger, and IHT ratter Osborne).

  3. Iain Gill
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 6:14 am | Permalink

    Funny I am in an EU capital, I hesitate to call it European as its still soviet bloc in my mind.
    Spending my time with a complete mix of EU nationalities from every single EU country.
    But the funniest thing is that we all agree what the biggest mistake all our countries are making.
    It’s not tax, representation, the Euro, or any of that.
    They all agree the biggest mistake common in most of our countries is segregating our children and sending them to different schools according to religion. Keeping them apart, and not integrating them. Is building up a time bomb of massive proportions. They all passionately agree on this, which does leave me wondering why our political class is so out of step and doing completely the opposite?
    It really is a revelation to hear this so clearly. And spoken about so passionately in the bars at night and so on.
    Where is the representation for this view of the ordinary people? The political class and party system seems to be completely insulated and removed.

    • hefner
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 12:23 pm | Permalink

      Iain, Thanks for that. It is my view too, but so much minimised or even fighted against by parents who obviously want the best for their children. They can compare primary and secondary schools in the state vs private sectors. They decide sometimes to the detriment of the rest of their essential financial choices that it is worth spending from 3k to 15k+++/year to have their child in private education. Is it simply because the state sector is not good enough? Or is it because this is part of looking better than my neighbour? Is it because more than 80 percent of our politicians went through private education? Remember: private schools represent less than 10 percent of the total number of schools in the UK.

      The real problem I have with private education is 1/ the charity status given to most of these schools as some are much closer to businesses than to education entities, and 2/ the very explicit segregation based on religion. Regarding point two, it might not have been such a problem thirty-forty years ago when even in the worse such religiously inclined private schools, the main problems might have been corporal punishment and the inculcation of rather far from charitable social ideas.

      The lack of policy on, or even the proselytism of Blair for religiously segregated private schools, with now the emergence of a few almost unregulated “philosophically extremist” schools, is an utter failure of all governing politicians and MPs over these last twenty years.
      As Iain says, in the name of “choice”, we have let them “build up a time bomb of massive proportions”.

    • Iago
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 1:34 pm | Permalink

      Iain Gill, re biggest mistake

      Indeed, this is one reason why the closure of the grammar schools fifty years ago by the socialists was an almost criminal action. The grammar schools took children regardless of their background or where they lived.

      Another thought is that if David Cameron had faced competition early in his career from a host of determined and able ex-grammar school boys and girls, he might not have been able to climb to the top of his greasy pole.

      • Chris S
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 5:39 pm | Permalink

        As one of those determined Boys, late of Maidenhead Grammar School, I wholeheartedly agree with you.

        As they wring their hands and decry the loss of social mobility, every politician knows deep down that it was the abolition of Grammar Schools that has been the principal cause.

        Successive post-war governments allowed the left to come to totally dominate the educational establishment and then Labour did the largely Marxist academic’s bidding for them, ensuring the dumbing down of the whole state system.

        It is still going on today : it was left wing Educationalists that created the fuss the eventually drove Cameron to move Michael Gove from the department.

        Had he remained in place, we just might have seen some long overdue change in general direction, principally reversing some of the changes that have skewed the way children are taught in favour of girls.

        Had he been allowed to, I’m sure Gove would have been able to successfully address the shameful under representation of male teachers, particularly in the early years classes. His policy of recruiting largely male non-graduates with suitable life skills as role models was a brilliant idea but ridiculed by the snooty so-called educational professionals.

        He would also have made some changes to the way boys are taught at all levels to improve their scandalous underperformance in exams.

        Had these two issues been disadvantageous to girls rather than boys, can there be any doubt that they would have been addressed years ago ?

  4. stred
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 6:23 am | Permalink

    facts4eu has dug out the latest OECD figures for income against personal earnings in the UK. It gives another twist to the ridiculous use of GDP in 2030 and no mention of GDP/head. No wonder the middle and working folks are peed off, but big companies and the sherrifs are telling them to remain-or else.

  5. David Cockburn
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 6:36 am | Permalink

    Rather than looking at all these predictions of economic decline it is worth considering our experience with the single market over the last 23 years. It does look as if we would have been better off trading under WTO rules, even for services:

  6. Lifelogic
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 6:40 am | Permalink

    Simon Heffer is spot on today:

    I also read in C Booker that John Major once said that an advantage of being in the EU was “we can listen to the music of Bellini, Mozart and Wagner”, I can assure him that I certainly listened to the latter two (at least) as a young boy. Well before the appalling Heath took us into the Common Market without the consent of the voters. I cannot remember any Bellini, but perhaps that too.

    This statement is almost as daft as his “interest rates will have to go up if we leave the ERM” or his best ever:- What do the British Nation do when they have their back against the wall?

    “We will do precisely what the British nation has done all through its history when it had its back to the wall — turn round and fight for the things it believes in, and that is what I shall do.”

    A period of silence from this silly EURO & ERM enthusiast would be very welcome indeed. He buried the country with the ERM and the party for 3+ terms. He is trying to do it again with his hampster and python jibes and his silly threats of more violence in Northern Ireland.

    Having said that surely he and Blair are helping the leave vote.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 6:49 am | Permalink

      If you want to know how pathetic, desperate and absurd Cameron now is read his article in the Telegraph today:

      He seem to think the EU is some kind of Father Christmas! It is actually an anti-democratic, sclerotic, embrio, socialist superstate, a straight jacket of red tape and expensive energy and with a huge entry fee attached to boot.

      Cameron seem to like serfdom for himself and the country why?

      • Qubus
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

        It may matter very little, but I can say that I shall not be casting a vote for the conservative party in the next GE if either Cameron or Osbourne is PM.

        • fedupsoutherner
          Posted June 12, 2016 at 8:16 pm | Permalink

          Qubus, you won’t be the only one, I can assure you.. Unless the Tory party changes significantly and starts behaving like a Tory party instead of portraying themselves as Green/lib/lab they will not get my vote ever again. I think many will also not vote for Labour so all that is credible will be UKIP. If Farage carries on like he did on Andrew Marr this morning then he will come across more and more like Prime Minister material. If it he true to his word then the people and what they want and what the country needs will come first.

  7. Mick
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 6:49 am | Permalink

    Cameron is a traitor to this country and the sooner he’s gone along with all the other eu loving MP’s the better, bring on June 23rd when we will be free and hopefully a GE this year so the public can fill the house of Westminster with true patriots

    • graham1946
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 11:14 am | Permalink

      Trouble is, Mick, you don’t really get a choice in a GE. You just get to choose what the parties offer. More of the same would be my guess. Same meat, different gravy is all.

  8. Chris S
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 6:50 am | Permalink

    He has not a shred of credibility left.

    How one politician can destroy what remains of his political career in less than a month is extraordinary. Further proof that Enoch Powell was right :

    “All political lives, unless they are cut off in midstream at a happy juncture, end in failure, because that is the nature of politics and of human affairs.”

    Nothing more need be said.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 10:47 am | Permalink

      Powell was nearly always proved right by events. Were he alive today he would doubtless be addressing George Osborne (given his national minimum wage and other insanities) with:

      Does my right hon. Friend not know that it is fatal for any Government or party or person to seek to govern in direct opposition to the principles on which they were entrusted with the right to govern? In introducing a compulsory control of wages and prices, in contravention of the deepest commitments of this party, has my right hon. Friend taken leave of his senses?

      The answer is clearly yes indeed Osborne has.

  9. eeyore
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 6:51 am | Permalink

    Vote Remain or the old lady gets it!

    I think Mr Cameron really means Vote Remain or Dave gets it!

    Or even Vote Remain or the EU gets it!

    • Lifelogic
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 8:28 am | Permalink

      The fact is that Cameron and Osborne will surely have to go post the Brexit vote. This is a huge extra benefit of Brexit and another very good reason to vote Brexit.

      Getting, a sensible, economically literate, lower and simpler tax chancellor in number 11 will be a huge additional advantage to the UK. No sugar tax, no pension mugging, landlord and tenant mugging, IHT ratting and the rest.

      Will we actually get out, post the Bexit vote, though? Given the composition of the commons and the powers that be I rather doubt it without another referendum.

      There is no reason at all even for remain supporters to vote remain in the first referendum. A better deal will follow. Cameron’s “deal” is worthless & an appalling deal for the UK.

      • Peter Davies
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 1:46 pm | Permalink

        I suspect you are right they will use every trick in the book to keep us in, you can just see another “negotiation” followed by a second referendum

    • stred
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 2:04 pm | Permalink

      Dave has made his career through the business of speech making, saying anything he thinks will advance him and until now it has worked. He has surrounded himself with workers in his project and the EU has been on his list of careers. Now things are going sour he will keep doing more of the same until he hope he scrapes through.

      He reminds me of those other charachters in horror movies who come to a sticky end by doing more of the same.etc ed

      • stred
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 2:06 pm | Permalink

        Omit 2nd h in characters please

  10. Jerry
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 7:14 am | Permalink

    Indeed John. Not said this before, have criticised others for saying it (sorry, they were right), but Cameron has to go -whatever the result- how low can any politico stoop, in effect threatening peoples pensions if they dare not vote how he wishes.

    • APL
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 8:31 am | Permalink

      Jerry: “but Cameron has to go -whatever the result- how low can any politico stoop,”

      If we get a remain result it’s irevelent if Cameron goes or not. He is just a puppet having his strings tugged from Brussels. If he goes, like Greece, the EU will just put another actor in his place.

      If we get a leave result, then yes he’s got to go, but not just him. We need a root and branch overhaul of the British political system.

      • Bob
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 9:32 am | Permalink

        If Brexit succeeds then the IHT ratting Chancellor should also step aside and make way for a person of competence and integrity. Our host was the first person that came to mind.

        • fedupsoutherner
          Posted June 12, 2016 at 8:18 pm | Permalink

          I second that Bob. John has common sense written all over him and experience in financial affairs to boot. He’d make a great Chancellor.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 10:50 am | Permalink

        Indeed. In the unlikely event of remain Cameron will just be a pointless, powerless puppet.

      • Jerry
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 10:55 am | Permalink

        @APL; If Cameron stays then we will defiantly have that EU puppet you talk of! 🙁

    • Anonymous
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 8:45 am | Permalink

      Jerry – There is not one argument I have heard that convinces me to Remain. Not one. Lots of threats and insults if I want to Leave though !

      • Lifelogic
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 10:56 am | Permalink

        Indeed, all the remain arguments are clearly bonkers. The more the remainers push them the more leave will benefit.

        UK democracy and free trade only. We will be stronger, safer and better off with Brexit.

        Who want to be ruled by un-elected EU bureaucrats who have made a mess of everything they have touched and who do not even try to act in UK interests?

        Cameron, Major, Bliar and Osborne it seems but very few others.

    • zorro
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 3:22 pm | Permalink

      As I predicted on the previous blog – there are very compromised, highly vulnerable to certain disclosures, politicians who are getting desperate and this will continue. We must all stand firm in the face of these despicable, scaremongering tactics proposed by people displaying a lack of patriotism.

      He has now wheeled out his millionaire wife in the MoS saying that she is scared of the future outside of the EU for her children. The reader comments are treating the article with utter contempt.


  11. Richard1
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 7:29 am | Permalink

    A point that needs addressing by Leave is Ireland. Jonathan Powell, civil servant under Blair, has written that the 500km border between Ireland and N Ireland, which has 200 road and lane crossings, would again need to be a hard border – with checks etc – as it was during the Troubles, in order to ensure customs and immigration policies post Brexit can be followed. Goods and people cannot be allowed to flow freely between N Irleand and Eire as now if the UK is out of the single market. Therefore, he argues, this will be very negative for the peace process in Northern Ireland.

    To me this reinforces the argument we should go for a Switzerland type deal – there are minimal border controls between EU countries and Switzerland, and there is no obstacle to the free flow of people and goods.

    Reply We will have a British deal which means we have access to the single market but do not have to accept free movement or contributions to the EU budget. The open Irish border is governed by UK/Irish agreements which will stay after Brexit, only subject to mutual agreement if change is needed.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 9:33 am | Permalink

      “Goods and people cannot be allowed to flow freely between N Ireland and Eire as now if the UK is out of the single market.”

      Well, as far as goods are concerned Richard North rather exploded that myth as long ago as April; not that Remainders will acknowledge that, any more than they will acknowledge the rebuttal of other myths they like to spread:

      “The myopia is all the more remarkable as in 1949, eight years before the Treaty of Rome which put the Zollverein into effect for the original six members of the EEC, an organisation called the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) launched a scheme to remove cross-border checks of goods in transit.

      This system, known as the Transports Internationaux Routiers (TIR) was so successful that it led to the negotiation of a TIR Convention which was adopted in 1959 by the UNECE Inland Transport Committee. It entered into force in 1960. It has since been updated and revised, currently standing as the 1975 Convention, as amended, forever breaking the link between customs control and border checks.

      At the heart of the system is a document known as the “TIR carnet”, issued to registered transport operators for each truck journey, listing the details of the consignments. These have to be kept in secure load compartments and sealed for the duration of the journeys. The specially marked vehicles are given free passage across borders, with any tariffs or other taxes becoming payable only when the final destination is reached.

      Currently, thee million carnets are issued each year, equating to 10,000 trucks a day. Between them, they make 50,000 TIR border crossings daily. And the system has since 2003 been undergoing simplification and computerisation, to become the e-TIR system. As a 21st Century system, it is on its way to emerging as a fully electronic, paper-free operation.

      As to Brexit, providing that the UK is prepared to re-enact the Community Customs Code and other flanking legislation to which EU recognition of the TIR system is tied, we could adopt the TIR system for Irish trans-border goods traffic.”

      • acorn
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

        Denis, we already do.

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted June 13, 2016 at 8:21 am | Permalink

          What, for that border?

          It’s not a problem, there won’t be queues of trucks at customs posts.

    • Bob
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 9:35 am | Permalink


      “Goods and people cannot be allowed to flow freely between N Irleand and Eire as now”

      Why on Earth not?

      • stred
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 12:53 pm | Permalink

        The Swiss have a virtuaally open border without anyone in the customs houses at night. This is actually a problem as drivers have to buy a motorway permit from a shop and most are closed. The fines are high. The Swiss have very high salaries and often high retail prices. They like to buy cheaply in France and take flights to the UK to buy much cheaper clothing. This is not a problem to either the Swiss or the EU countries.

        I know because my management has Swiss relations and they often come to stay here.

        Regarding Ireland sending EU workers through unchecked, we would simply stop issuing some of the 630,000 NI cards, which are needed to work and claim benefits. Just like the EU countries including UK do to non- EU immigrants at present. They could do the same to us and it would make going to the EU for casual work harder. It would be necessary to go as a tourist and then find a job promise before applying. Then we would not have to find 3m jobs, houses, schools and hospital beds in the most highly populated country in the EU except Holland.

      • Richard1
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 3:05 pm | Permalink

        Jonathan Powell argues that they could not post Brexit if we are not in the single market – there would have to be immigration and customs controls. If the open Irish border stays as JR says above, then Powell would argue that makes a nonsense of having supposed controls on the flow of people and goods across other borders.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 9:56 am | Permalink

      And as far as people are concerned, after we leave the EU the UK’s immigration policy will be designed as a sensible immigration policy which is more acceptable to the citizens of the UK, and not as a stupid policy to make life unnecessarily difficult for tourists, and people coming to visit family members or for family events, or other temporary visitors, and any restrictions on entry will be sensibly adjusted to reflect any real need for restrictions. Some of the Remainders have deliberately turned off their brains so they are incapable of understanding that there is no compulsion to swing from one extreme to the opposite extreme, it is possible to work out sensible and effective solutions between the two.

      • zorro
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

        Indeed, their dire predictions are childish, suggesting that there is a real possibility of visa controls on French/German nationals!


    • Mark B
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 10:05 am | Permalink

      The UK and Ireland are island nations and can have separate arrangements to the rest of Europe and the EU. Personally, I do not see how a border between the two can harm the so called peace process ?

      Please explain ?

      • Richard1
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 3:06 pm | Permalink

        Jonathan Powell (and Blair and Major) argue that the open border between N Ireland and Eire is critical to goodwill underpinning the peace agreement.

        reply Nor are the currently threatened on either remain or leave.The risks are similar in or out, but easier to handle if out.

    • Jerry
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 11:06 am | Permalink

      @JR reply; The German finance minister disagrees with you!

    • acorn
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 1:03 pm | Permalink

      It will have to be a hard border and the Irish Republic, will have to set up a refugee camp on it. Just like the French version at Calais. The Republic isn’t going to be stopping migrants from another EU state, anymore than the French do. And, the migrants are not likely to be Protestants.

      Paying pensions, or anything, with Pounds Sterling is purely a UK political decision, nothing to do with Brexit. I doubt the now infamous, £10 billion; or the whole subscription amount, will get spent on anything. I am assuming that Osborne will deduct it from total government spending (TME). Remember, he has got to get zero deficit by the end of this parliament.

      • stred
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 5:48 pm | Permalink

        Don’t know whether your are serious, but the Irish are no more keen to create a ‘jungle’ than we are in Kent. We and the Irish will depend on the ferry operators and airlines to keep passengers legitimate. If the EU tries to fine the Irish hundreds of thousands of euros for not accepting Angela’s come on over problem, they will be angling for a Irexit too, along with the Poles, Hungarians and others.

    • Peter Davies
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 1:50 pm | Permalink

      I thought the brexit plan was to step into eea (appreciate our host disagrees with this, but if that’s what the government does then this is a null statement

    • zorro
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 3:24 pm | Permalink

      Richard1 – Common Travel Area


    • R
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

      Actually how secure is the oppinion of the people of Eire that they would want to Remain In’?

      • Gary C
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

        I spend a fair bit of time in Ireland and listening to the radio it’s clear the government & media are all for the UK remaining however speaking to people on the street I would estimate 60% of the population are very unhappy with the EU and would be happy to leave.

        I will add this is the rural S/W, as to what the thoughts are in Dublin I would not know.

    • Qubus
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 4:34 pm | Permalink

      Could you please inform me: is Southrren Ireland in the Shengen area?

      Reply No

  12. DaveM
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 8:11 am | Permalink

    So Cameron’s now threatening pensioners, the NHS, and Defence. Is there a lower point to which he can stoop?

    He’s really desperate isn’t he?

  13. Lifelogic
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 8:18 am | Permalink

    Sir James Dyson: ‘So if we leave the EU no one will trade with us? Cobblers…’

    Cobblers indeed we will be more competitive and far more people will trade with us. The EU is a sclerotic & declining level of trade anyway for the UK. Above all we buy more from them than they do from us so trade is clearly more in their interests than ours.

  14. Beecee
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 8:21 am | Permalink

    Having been told for years by Messrs Cameron and Osborne how well the economy is doing compared to the rest of the EU and, presumably, despite the EU, it appears that with Brexit there will be a £40bn p.a. black hole in our economy; pensioners will be forced to either starve to death, freeze to death or collapse with fatigue as they are made to walk everywhere!

    Today SamCam writes that she fears for her children should Brexit win. Well Mrs C I can assure you that with your family’s wealth behind you they have nothing to fear regardless of the result. Do not patronise the rest of us normal folk! Or is it a Cameron trait?

    Today the MoS seems very pro Remain. Was the editor in the Honours List?

    • hefner
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 7:24 pm | Permalink

      You might need to read a bit more widely: the DM is these days mostly edited by Matthew Elliott, co-founder of the Taxpayers’ Alliance and current chief of VoteLeave. The editorials of the MoS are mostly written by George Creig, who is free to write his mind, with the support of the Rothermere family.
      As another newspaper outside the Mail group comments today “… the profile of Mail daily and Sunday readers isn’t so different, and the millions of them who treat both as their bibles must wrestle with total confusion, not total control”.

      What a funny world!

      • Beecee
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

        The MoS comment was satirical!

        I know the Editor-in-Chief is Paul Dacre who has rejected the notion that he imposes his will on the newspapers.

        I think you mean George Greig, who attended both Eton and Oxford and is extremely well connected.

  15. Denis Cooper
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 8:26 am | Permalink

    Last week I got an email circulated by Anthony Coughlan, the veteran opponent of the EU who runs the National Platform in Dublin:

    It starts thus:

    “Dear British Friends,

    “We must sow terror in the hearts of the Irish people,” a senior Irish politician said to Irish Independent journalist James Downey in 2001, explaining how the Republic’s Government would reverse the Irish people’s No vote to the EU’s Nice Treaty that year and turn it into a Yes vote to the same treaty the year following.

    This was duly done and voters in Ireland’s second referendum on this EU treaty were threatened with the local equivalent of Prime Minister Cameron’s lurid vision of economic apocalypse and World War 3 if they did not vote the way Brussels and their own ultra-Europhile politicians wanted.

    Spreading fear and misinformation, using bullying and threats, is standard practice for the supporters of the supranational integration project in every EU country as they seek ever more power for themselves by undermining the national democracy of their own peoples and taking ever more power and control away from national Parliaments and Governments.”

    And it concludes thus:

    “If the British people vote to leave the EU, they will be striking a mighty blow for democracy and true internationalism in face of the threats from Brussels and Berlin, encouraged by Washington.

    They will encourage democrats in every EU country, whether Left, Right or Centre, to break away from the institutional monster that is the EU and reestablish their national independence and democracy – that being the only basis for stable, long-lasting and friendly cooperation amongst Europe’s nations and States.”

    • Ian Wragg
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

      Denis I read your measured response to RN and his petulant replies.
      His whole operation is to support his Flexcit document which having read a lot of it makes me agree with our host.
      The basic thread seems to be that as we have been in the EU for 40 years it will take that time to leave.
      This is Camerons thinking by trying to make matters as complicated as possible.
      I think you wasting your time with your measured and well researched replies

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 3:38 pm | Permalink

        Maybe, but there’s at least one sensible person who reads them!

    • Martyn G
      Posted June 13, 2016 at 4:03 pm | Permalink

      Well, not all think that democracy should work as is suggested. For example, I note a comment in ‘Der Spiegel’ regarding a possible Brexit which says: “If Germany and German citizens are so strongly affected by any move on the British EU membership, why is it that German citizens are not allowed to vote for or against? Letting only Brits (by whatever definition that status is granted) vote on aspects affecting all of EUROPE is not democratic. Neither was it democratic to let only the Dutch or the French vote on the EUROPEAN constitution in a separate way”.
      The mind boggles!

  16. James Matthews
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 8:27 am | Permalink

    On the subject of “extraordinary claims” AKA vindictive threats and/or lies, it is now 18 days since this petition passed the 10.000 mark, but still no response from the government. I wonder if we will get one before 23rd June? I’m guessing not.

    Makes vote leave’s use of the gross figure for payments to the EU look a rather trivial misdemeanour.

  17. Anonymous
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 8:43 am | Permalink

    I am utterly disgusted with the Remain side of the Tory party. They have no dignity and no concern for ordinary people who are suffering the ill effects of the EU.

    It is all very well the rich PM having his wife exhort that we should vote Remain for the sakes of our children’s futures. His children will never be at risk, whatever the outcome of the referendum. (Mail on Sunday)

    This is a Marie Antoinette moment and how awful that this lovely lady has been brought into the fray, at great risk of suffering an obvious (and not unreasonable) backlash upon herself.

    • fedupsoutherner
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 10:20 am | Permalink

      Reply to Anonymous. Well, if people wondered how low Cameron could stoop then here is your answer. His betrayal of his nation and his wife cannot be allowed to get in the way of his goals. You are right of course. His family and many more like his will never feel the real backlash of what the EU will dish out to ordinary men and women in the UK. This is our chance to free ourselves of this kind of tyranny.

  18. Roy Grainger
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 9:10 am | Permalink

    Odd claim by Cameron. After Brexit if he cuts pensions I’ll just vote in a General Election for a different party who’ll increase them. Can’t see the issue.

    • Jerry
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 11:17 am | Permalink

      @Roy Grainger; “I’ll just vote in a General Election for a different party who’ll increase them.”

      The Brexit left are saying mush the same about those on the left of BSE who keep scaremongering that the Brexit right wish to abolish workers rights etc.

    • Qubus
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 4:37 pm | Permalink

      But that puts the problem in a nutshell. You are able to do this; something that we cannot do with the EU.

  19. Denis Cooper
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 9:12 am | Permalink

    For God’s sake, Cameron is now resorting to the same kind of rubbish that we previously had over the euro:

    “And we’d soon become a country stuck on the hard shoulder, watching as others shoot past us in the fast lane.”

    Except as I recall it wasn’t so bad then, it was only the slow lane, not the hard shoulder – which is in any case disappearing from many motorways, what will we do then?

    Pity it’s the wrong time of year for him to adapt that EU Christmas card with the UK standing outside in the cold, enviously looking through the window at the euro party goers celebrating inside in the warm …

    Here’s an article about the kinds of things he wrote in his column in the now defunct Oxford Journal before he became Tory leader and gradually started to show his true colours – which of course are, and always have been, yellow and blue notwithstanding the opposite interpretation offered in the article:

  20. turbo terrier
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 9:12 am | Permalink

    I hope (but it will never happen) that CMD will learn something for Farage when being interviewed.

    Over the last few weeks Farage has really got his act together, far more polished and credible than the man in the pub presented previously. CMD? same old same old!!

    For the first time I am beginning to feel confident that the exit we all wish and pray for is really beginning to roll. We might make some strange liasons but as long as it is united and we get the result we want, it is the price worth paying.

    • Peter Davies
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 1:57 pm | Permalink

      Your right, I haven’t been watching all the eu crap trapon TV recently but saw farage on Marr this morning, to be fair to the nan he sounded like a statesman and has thankfully moderated his language despite every effort to trap him by Marr

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 3:51 pm | Permalink

        Cameron on Marr this morning was quite interesting. Maybe because even Marr is getting a bit fed up with the excesses of the Remainders he actually gave Cameron a surprisingly hard time. The transcript is here:

        On page 5:

        “AM: Those numbers are basically made up, that is the problem.

        DC: Well, I don’t accept that actually the Bank of England themselves –

        AM: Well Steve Hilton, your former adviser, says: ‘They are made up.’ He’s talking about the Brexit forecast numbers from the Treasury.

        ‘They are made up, I know because I used to do that stuff for you.’”

      • Chris S
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

        Nigel,was also very good on the phone-in on the World At One last week.

        In one respect it will be very much a personal triumph for him if we win.

        While our host and all the Vote Leave politicians have done a sterling job, the very fact that Cameron was forced to hold a referendum at all was really down to Nigel Farage and his tireless work over many years in turning UKIP into a proper political party strong enough to win the European elections and win over enough voters to the cause to give Cameron a real fright.

        He won’t mind one jot coming out of the referendum without a job but I for one will be thanking him.

        It’s still a big If but, If we do win, I am sure that historians will give Nigel Farage a great deal of the credit. I’m firmly a Conservative and not a UKIP supporter but I’m not convinced that without UKIP and its leader, our brilliant host and his fellow Eurosceptic Conservatives would have been able to force Cameron into holding a referendum.

        It is rare indeed for one politician to effectively create the conditions for a country, or possibly even a Continent to make, or even come close to making, such a significant change in direction.

        I don’t expect JR to agree with this post, but we can’t agree on absolutely everything, can we ?

        reply Mr Cameron gave us a referendum in response to our success in the Conservative Parliamentary party in collecting votes and names at a time when Mr Cameron’s leadership was under pressure!

    • Know-Dice
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 4:03 pm | Permalink

      Yep, Farage, Chris Greyling (and other Brexiters) are interviewing well, calm, collected not the hysterical theatrics and personal attacks of the Remainders…

  21. Denis Cooper
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    It’s lucky we have a secret ballot, or there’d be gangs of muggers outside polling stations ready to rob pensioners of their bus passes if they’d voted the wrong way.

    • Ian Wragg
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 12:31 pm | Permalink

      There’s a reference number on the ballot paper so it’s not a secret ballot at all.
      I understand some postal votes have already been opened for verification purposes and the result not very favourable for Cameron.
      We’ll be on a government sponsored hit list no doubt.

      Reply It is a secret ballot and they should not record the voting number and the way the vote is cast

      • Ian Wragg
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 1:43 pm | Permalink

        My neighbour is a polling agent and he says the reference number is alocated to a name. There is nothing to stop an unscrupulous blighter marrying the two.

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted June 12, 2016 at 3:31 pm | Permalink

          It can be done legally, with a court order. But even then it would be a major task to go through all the ballots and pick out the pensioners who should be punished for voting the wrong way.

        • Know-Dice
          Posted June 12, 2016 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

          Ian you are correct, it’s not a true secret ballot, your vote could be easily tied up with your electoral roll number.

          I also understand that postal votes get opened and sorted and it’s possible, (certainly for council employees) to get a rough/reasonable idea of the number of votes each way.

          So, a question that should be asked is, what is being done to secure the early postal vote trends against “prying” eyes?

    • Martyn G
      Posted June 13, 2016 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

      If you look closely at what happens before your voting paper is handed to you, you will see a pencil is used to write your voter number on the back of the form. Take an eraser with you if you wish your vote to remain confidential, though I am unsure as to whether or not that would make your vote invalid or ‘spoiled’.
      Secret vote it is most definitely not!

      Reply At the count there is no attempt to work out who voted how. After the count the votes are put away and eventually destroyed without seeking to identify people’s votes

  22. Bert Young
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 10:04 am | Permalink

    Cameron has once again gone back to his scaremongering ; today it’s all about the vulnerability of pensions . He believes that by focusing on the more mature in the country he will scare them into “remaining” , he couldn’t be more wrong . Each time he enters the referendum fray the polls show a swing to “Brexit”. I hope he has much more to contribute before June 23rd !.

  23. Ken Moore
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 10:07 am | Permalink

    ‘Doesn’t a lie get half way around the world before the truth gets it’s boots on’. That is what Cameron is banking on. This just shows the contempt he holds us.

    My view is that Cameron actually despises the messy business of having to gain democratic consent so he wishes to abolish it. He doesn’t like ‘populism’ like his friends in the Eu.
    It’s much better for him and his kind to leave overwhelmingly politically correct and unpopular decisions to an organisation that exists without democratic control.
    The Eu is Camerons shield..his comfort blanket so he can say it’s the Eu’s fault or out of my control.
    He is playing a VERY dangerous game and Conservative Mp’s need to use whatever levers they have to stop him. – I can’t think of a single instance when a nation has rolled back democracy and become more successful..quite the opposite.

    • zorro
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 6:38 pm | Permalink

      Oh yes, of course, like he used the Lib Dems previously!


  24. Nick
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 10:24 am | Permalink

    They aren’t safe in or out.

    The reason is with the amount that you owe.

    How do you pay the debt costs of a 10 trillion pound debt in or out?

    Linked to inflation so you can’t print your way out.

    • Jerry
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 11:23 am | Permalink

      @Nick; Tell me how many times Argentina has defaulted, has it change anything?

      As the old saying goes, owe a bank £1m and you have a problem, owe a bank £1bn and they have a problem…

    • Roy Grainger
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 12:03 pm | Permalink

      Correct. To listen to Cameron if we vote Remain then pensions will always be increased, house prices will never go down, household income will always go up, there will never be another war, Zika virus will be cured, ISIS will be defeated and so on. Quite a list for someone who can’t hit economic targets from one month to the next.

  25. formula57
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 10:36 am | Permalink

    Mr Cameron’s despair is evident in the panicky nonesense he utters now. I am awaiting him being driven to asking us “what currency as you going to use post-brexit because you cannnot keep the Pound?”.

    One other thing Mr Cameron did in subduing the Scots during their referendum was to cause the flag of St. Andrew to be flown over Downing Street. Why does he not mirror that master-stroke and have the EU flag flying proudly there? He is not ashamed of the association, surely?

    • Anonymous
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 11:23 am | Permalink

      Formula 57 – A good point about the flag. We are in the EU already so it should be there.

      The ‘I’m In’ T shirts, badges and leaflets have plenty of red, white and blue on them but no EU flag.

      Supporters should be proud to wear their new emblem.

    • Ian Wragg
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 12:33 pm | Permalink

      A set of gallows would be more appropriate.

  26. They Work for Us?
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 10:40 am | Permalink

    Thank you JR for yet again identifying and countering Remains potty assertions.

    OT, as evidenc that the EU destroys UK jobs, takes us for mugs and uses some of our own money to destroy us, I came across this horrifying list of businesses that have used EU grants to relocate from The UK to other EU countries or even into candidate countries. (like Ford Transit production being moved to Turkey, Cadburys moving to Poland etc. I wonder how many French or German companies have moved to the UK using EU grants, none I suspect have or would be allowed to.

    the link requires search through to find the list. Everyone should be aware of the extent of the damage to our jobs and future.

  27. Chris S
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 10:52 am | Permalink

    I get my state pension in November and I’m not the slightest bit worried about today’s desperate outburst.

    I can’t see the how the country can afford to continue with the triple lock indefinitely any more than free TV licences, cold weather payments or bus passes. The latter three should be means tested anyway.

    If the government does find it has a black hole of any size, the Chancellor should cut overseas aid long before he reduces the state pension.

    • graham1946
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 6:27 pm | Permalink

      Chris S

      When you do get your pension, you will discover it is the lowest in the civilised world . Even with the triple lock it will take generations to make it decent.
      If you don’t have any other income, God help you. Heating or eating in winter among other things is what it will be.
      These boondoggles were added because the pension is so low and they can be removed anytime, unlike a general rise in the pension which is what should happen. Governments like to keep this in reserve. I’m convinced it will happen after 2020. Probably by way of a small increase in the pension, much lower than the value of these bits and pieces, (including free prescriptions, a very valuable concession as you get older), in order to bamboozle the old folk who should be living their lives in dignity after a lifetime’s graft, not worrying what rich people in Westminster with their safe pensions are going to do to them. Cameron is a disgrace and how any Conservative can support him is beyond me.

  28. MickN
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    I read today that Gideon says that he will be forced to cut 1.5 billion from the defence budget if we vote for Brexit.
    How on God’s Earth can he possibly imagine that he will still be in his job after a vote to leave??
    He and Cameron are truly deluded.

  29. woodsy42
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 11:21 am | Permalink

    Threatening a large section of core Tory voters – and this was a direct threat, vote for me or you will pay – is probably the stupidest thing Cameron has done to date. We will neither forget or forgive. It will be UKIP for millions of previous Tory supporters.

  30. graham1946
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 11:53 am | Permalink

    This is obviously being used as a scare tactic for the referendum at the moment. Pensioner benefits may be safe with Brexit.

    BUT, as I said on this very blog some weeks ago, the old are being lined up for austerity after the parliament runs its course in 2020. Most of them already are living it. The world cruise section are in the minority. They will be hit, regardless of whether we are in or out and I predict the next government will do it despite any promises made previously or in the future or whatever is in any manifesto. The deficit continues and will not be eliminated, the National Debt is be heading towards the thick end of the 2 trillion mark and cannot be repaid.

    The old are considered a drain on the economy , and their previous contributions in tax and work which made the country prosperous in the first place will be of no account. Already we have people dying of the cold each winter (it was in excess of 40,000 this last year and it wasn’t particularly cold), so we must hope global warming really does take effect and come to the rescue as our politicians obviously don’t seem to care much.

    We have the lowest public pensions in the civilsed world which is why bus passes and free telly licences etc were invented, and unlike pensions can be taken away. Our once world beating private pensions have been have been decimated firstly by Brown (his ideas not reversed by the Tories, despite howls in opposition, as usual) and the annuities markets have been trashed by the Investment Bankers crashing the western economies and Insurers have cottoned on to the fact they can continue to pay low returns for money invested with them.

    This is one issue coming out of the EU won’t affect.

  31. Dennis
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 11:58 am | Permalink

    I haven’t heard this discussed – it’s from the Feb. 2016 EU roundup on CMD’s negotitatons it seems…

    (b) Free movement of EU citizens under Article 21 TFEU is to be exercised subject to the limitations and conditions laid down in the Treaties and the measures adopted to give them effect.The right of economically non active persons to reside in the host Member State depends under EU law on such persons having sufficient resources for themselves and their family members not to become a burden on the social assistance system of the host Member State, and on those persons having comprehensive sickness insurance. Member States have the possibility of refusing to grant social benefits to persons who exercise their right to freedom of movement solely in order to obtain Member States’ social assistance although they do not have sufficient resources to claim a right of residence.

  32. Dennis
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 12:01 pm | Permalink

    So this amendment is not yet set in stone…

    Changes to EU secondary legislation 2. It is noted that, following the taking effect of this Decision, the Commission will submit proposals for amending existing EU secondary legislation as follows:(a)a proposal to amend Regulation (EC) No 883/2004 of the European Parliament and of the Council2 on the coordination of social security systems in order to give Member States, with regard to the exportation of child benefits to a Member State other than that where the worker resides, an option to index such benefits to the conditions of the Member State where the child resides. This should apply only to new claims made by EU workers in the host Member State. However, as from 1 January 2020, all Member States may extend indexation to existing claims to child benefits already exported by EU workers.The Commission does not intend to propose that the future system of optional indexation of child benefits be extended to other types of exportable benefits, such as old-age pensions;2Regulation (EC) No 883/2004 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 29 April 2004 on the coordination of social security systems (OJ L 166, 30.4.2004, p. 1)

  33. Denis Cooper
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 12:13 pm | Permalink

    Seeing Justin Welby explaining why he will vote to stay in the EU and saying:

    “To be a country for the world is part of the calling of being British.”

    my immediate reaction was to think that here is somebody else who has little feel for numbers, albeit that is actually rather surprising in view of his previous career.

    Officially the population of the EU is 508 million.

    (Those famous 500 million consumers in the Single Market all dead keen to buy our products but apparently without expecting to sell us anything back, as the Single Market only works in one direction and that is to our advantage. And I won’t even nitpick about the way our 65 million are often included in that export market.)

    While the world population is now estimated to be 7.4 billion.

    So that’s 0.5 billion or 7% living in the EU, against 6.9 billion or 93% living outside the EU; and clearly it is the eurocentric Remain campaigners, not the “little Englanders” in the Leave camp, who really want us to turn our backs on the world.

    • ian wragg
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 3:42 pm | Permalink

      Denis, I’m sure the unemployed of Southern Europe are falling over themselves to trade with us.
      I expect in reality the single market is probably nearer 200 million when you remove the unemployed and kids but 508 million having the right to come here and claim benefits.

      • Jerry
        Posted June 12, 2016 at 8:10 pm | Permalink

        @ian wragg; The highly successful British electronic games industry will not like you implying that kids are not part of the EU single market!

    • The Prangwizard
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 6:42 pm | Permalink

      It’s no wonder the Cof E is in crisis. It needs a leader with a backbone and some balls who will defend our values – we’ve had enough of weakness dressed as compassion and tolerance.

  34. ian
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 1:18 pm | Permalink

    brexit in the lead is just establishment propaganda, you are behind.

  35. MPC
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 1:50 pm | Permalink

    Remain is running out of broadly pro-Brexit groups to scare, but my prediction is they will focus on 2 more before the referendum:

    Owners of and workers in SMEs – huge increase in their operating costs leading to bankruptcies post Brexit when they no longer have access to the ‘single market’

    Beer drinkers – the end of Engish ale. The French cancel the Le Touquet agreement on Brexit, allow all the (non alcohol drinking) hordes camped in Calais through the Channel Tunnel with location maps of the hop fields in Kent, which they proceed to destroy beyond repair on their way to the gold paved streets of London

  36. Denis Cooper
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 2:04 pm | Permalink

    There’s been controversy over whether it is right to just take official statistics at face value when the Treasury that says our gross payments to the EU were £18,777 million in 2014, see the first line in Table 3.A here:

    Which divided by 52 weeks means we paid £361 million a week to the EU.

    Surely, some say, those who wish to leave the EU have a duty to correct the Treasury on this, and point out that the term “gross payments” in the official report should really be applied to what is later called “gross payments post rebate”?

    But, oddly enough, the same people who object that it is wholly unethical for the Leave side to uncritically use this official information have nothing to say about the claim that nine out of ten economists believe Brexit would be economically damaging, which claim is repeated by Cameron in his Telegraph article only today.

    A claim based on a survey in which eight out of ten economists asked were apparently so unconcerned, or undecided, about the possible consequences of Brexit that they didn’t even respond to the questions sent to them, as admitted at the end of this article:

    Cameron and his allies should stop repeating that claim, which is no more valid than the advertising claim that nine out of ten cats prefer a certain brand of cat food available in pouches, when out of the 1.4 million cats asked only 12% responded to the survey.

  37. Qubus
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 4:01 pm | Permalink

    Just watched the Andrew Marr show with Cameron again quoting the Governor of the BofE. Why is it so rarely stated that the previous Governor, Mervyn King, is for Brexit … I assume that he hasn’t changed his mind.

    Another point: David Owen is also a Brexiteer, but he doesn’t seem to figure much in the media. He seems a sensible sort of chap.

  38. NickW
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 4:35 pm | Permalink

    With reference to news of the concealment of Turkish visa plans until after the referendum;

    Can Leave go to Court to compel the Government to divulge all the measures they and the EU are not going to tell us about until June 24th.?

    We are witnessing a total and utter betrayal of duty by the Government and civil service to inform the electorate of relevant matters prior to the referendum.

    Treason is an apt and proper description, because there is clearly conspiracy to conceal highly pertinent facts which cannot do otherwise than affect the outcome of the referendum.

    • NickW
      Posted June 12, 2016 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

      In order to address any possible conflicts of loyalty, The Referendum Bill was passed by the whole of Parliament and carries with it the will not only of Parliament, but of the population of the United Kingdom which Parliament represents.

      Those MPs and Ministers who support remaining in the EU are on the other hand, a faction of Government which clearly does not represent the whole of the United Kingdom, nor the whole of Parliament.

      It follows that any civil servant in the possession of information which they believe to be pertinent to the referendum has a duty to put that information into the public domain in order to facilitate a fair and proper referendum as legislated for by Parliament. They should not allow themselves to be silenced by those who wish to influence the outcome of the referendum by concealing information, because to do so would thwart the will of the entirety of Parliament.

      It would be improper and of questionable legality to knowingly conceal information which is pertinent to the consideration of the referendum question and which might affect the outcome of the referendum.

  39. BOF
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

    Interesting to see what Mr Cameron’s priorities are. He will cut our pensions in the UK but still keep paying out 12 billion pounds in Foreign Aid’, often to corrupt regimes or on unusable airports.

    Waiting for last minute bribery by way of concessions and or other largess offered from Brussels.

    Posted June 12, 2016 at 5:57 pm | Permalink

    After 23rd June it will be more difficult for any Conservative to lock-in with potential voters after pension threats have been made by such a senior person as Mr Cameron. He is a severe threat to the electability of people even on his own side. He sounds on the edge. Thinks if he can’t be boss then he’s taking his ball home.

  41. Denis Cooper
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

    Here’s some tosh brought to us courtesy of the Guardian, by a journalist who is either too lazy to look into the matter or just content to give its readers another false argument to deploy against the Leave side because they don’t know any better:

    “Britain faces seven years of limbo after Brexit, says Donald Tusk”

    That’s because:

    “Every single one of the 27 member states as well as the European parliament would have to approve the overall result. That would take at least five years, and I’m afraid, without any guarantee of success”

    Well, it could take five years, or it could take much less than that.

    If you look at the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, that was signed on December 13th 2007 and it was fully ratified on November 13th 2009 and came into force on December 1st 2009, less than two years from signature to coming into force, and it would probably have been about one year if the Irish hadn’t delayed it in their first referendum on June 12th 2008.

    In any case there would be the possibility of provisional application of a new treaty if a few of the EU member states were slow with their ratification, for example the EU’s trade deal with South Korea was applied provisionally for over four years before it finally came into full force:

    Signed on October 6th 2010, provisional application as from 1 July 2011 (except some parts), then Italy belatedly ratified it on September 14th 2015, then Korea ratified it on October 14th 2015 and it finally came into full force on December 13th 2015.

  42. Androcles
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 7:57 pm | Permalink

    I suppose if the PM had mentioned cutting the funding of overseas aid or HS2 he would have increased the Brexit vote!

    Posted June 12, 2016 at 8:33 pm | Permalink

    Off Topic: The massacre in Orlando

    The US and UK media’s political and news coverage appears to concentrate on proving:-

    1.The shooter is not a REAL terrorist, you can’t prove he’s a member of ISIS. He just SAID he was.So there!

    2. The fact the shooter decided to buy a rifle and not hire a 10 ton truck and run over 200 people leaving a football stadium proves we should ban everyone from owning a gun.
    So there!

    3.. Don’t vote for Trump

    4. Vote for Hillary Clinton

  44. Newmania
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 8:38 pm | Permalink

    It seems entirely simple to me . The UK economy will lose growth revenues to the exchequer will fall and financing the debt is likely to become more expensive ( perhaps catastrophically so). Obviously this will lead to a reappraisal of our state commitments and it is not going to be possible to ring fence any area .
    The net contributions we make to the EU are a trifling matter compared with our spending and hardly need to be discussed , not when we are risking losing the City of London entirely by sacrificing our ability to trade in services.
    Cameron stuffed the oldies mouths with gold because they vote in disproportionately large numbers and generally in their own interests as we all do . The old had tended to see this vote as one they have no stake in, so can afford to indulge any frustration they may feel , from their inablity to open jam jars, to the number of black faces in the Doctors waiting room
    I hope they are listening to Cameron because he no longer has any reason to curry favour with this democratic log jam and is likely to do exactly as he says . Circumstancves have changed and you changed, them he might say.
    Perhaps the Conservative Party will be rid of Cameron and Osbourne and the next up will be a reprise that great intellectual vacuum IDS. If that is the case then I will devote myself assiduously to attacking Maria Caulfield , the Conservative MP we elected and I voted for. Whilst Corbyn is beyonmdbthe Pale , should the Labour Party elect , for exmaple , that nice Ms Creagh I will vote for her

  45. NickW
    Posted June 12, 2016 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    This link is to the scans of Foreign Office Telegrams, which show that contrary to Cameron’s assurances, British Diplomats are currently fully engaged in discussions with Turkey regarding Visa Liberalisation, (A prelude to EU Membership

    There are not enough words in the English language to describe the duplicity of our Prime Minister.

    (Source of link ; Order-Order. Comment is mine.)

  46. Colin Hart
    Posted June 13, 2016 at 5:02 pm | Permalink

    Project Fear has become Project Threat.

  • About John Redwood

    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

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