I do not make public forecasts of results in elections where I am a candidate or in votes where I am closely involved on one side. If you forecast your own success it can look arrogant or complacent, and you need to keep working to persuade as many people as possible of your good intentions and just cause. Nor can you ever be sure you will win until you see the ballot boxes opened and the votes counted. If you were silly enough to predict your own defeat your opponents would not let you forget it. I always think it odd broadcasters keep on asking participants if they are going to win or not, when I want to hear from them why I should vote for them and not waste time on punditry from the biased.
Now the polls have closed I will express a view of this referendum. I have always found it strange that the polls have generally been so close, and that most of the pollsters and pundits have united to tell us it is so close they cannot predict the outcome. 50/50 should be an unlikely outcome, not the norm or mean. From what I have seen and heard I am anticipating a win for Leave.
Judging by the arguments and attitudes set out by the two campaigns, it seemed to me people began to disbelieve the greater fears about Brexit expressed by the Remain side quite early on. They also began to take more note of just how restrictive and unhelpful the EU can be, and saw the dangers of staying in a body with very different aims from the trade and friendship limited policies shared by most UK voters.