All post vote attention has been focused on the fall in the pound against the dollar rather than the surge in UK government bond prices or the good performance of the FTSE 100 since February. It is true that the pound hit a ten year low against the dollar of $1.36 on Friday, compared to $1.38 in January 2009 (when we were firmly in the EU). Over the years we have been in the EU the pound has been up and down against the dollar in a very wide range of $1 to $2. Much of the recent slide of the pound against the dollar has been part of a general strengthening of the dollar and a weakening of the Euro, yen and pound as well. The more immediate moves can be put down to market responses to the vote.
The pound against the Euro gives us a different picture, and arguably a more relevant one on Brexit. The big plunge in the pound occurred during the banking crash. The pound fell from a high of Euro 1.51 in January 2007, to just Euro 1.03 in December 2008, a fall of one third. From Euro 1.14 in July 2013 the pound rose to Euro 1.43 in July 2015, before gently declining as the Euro started to strengthen more broadly. On 23 June before the referendum result the pound stood at Euro 1.31. Yesterday it closed at Euro 1.23, still almost 20% above its previous low.
A modestly lower pound will be welcomed by many exporters. I will keep people posted next week to see how it settles down.