Bonds soar and shares rally

I trust the news headlines will blaze the good news from the markets. Since the Brexit vote UK government bonds have shot up to record high. The government which had to pay 1.37% on the eve of the Brexit vote to borrow for ten years now only has to pay 0.98% for ten years. That’s a record low.

Meanwhile the FTSE 100 main shares ended last week up a little, and today rose another 2.6%.  Let’s hear that instead of all the gloom. There is life after Brexit. We need to be confident about our prospects.

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  1. James Winfield
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

    No mention of the value of the dollar or the corporate debt added overnight due to the devaluation?

    • Peter Scarlet
      Posted June 28, 2016 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

      Why does devaluation lead to additional corporate debt? Are you referring to UK companies with UK earnings financed by debt denominated in foreign currencies? I would be surprised if many companies do this.

      • Roy Grainger
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:22 am | Permalink

        “UK companies with UK earnings financed by debt denominated in foreign currencies? I would be surprised if many companies do this.”

        Network Rail (as John has informed us several times).

      • Hope
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:57 am | Permalink

        JR,mhis it not time a group of you publicly state that Cameron needs to keep to his word. He said he would trigger article 50 immediately and enact the people’s will. He is letting Hunt and the Remain group keep trotting out heir fear in the hope a second referendum will be called.

        No, Get on with it. His warm chats with the EU yesterday are not helpful. We do not want freedom of movement for some half hearted trade deal to access the single market i.e. An EU light deal. We voted out and want out. We want to be friends and trade but not on all their terms.

        Boris a good chap as he is, wanted to have amnesty for illegal immigrants and the rest of it. He needs to wake up fast to the public mood while balancing his career aspirations. We cannot get doctor today as we could not last week, the same for school places and housing this needs to change.

        Reply This government does not have authority and is not going to send an Article 50 request. I and others are working with the Cabinet office on the best option for the incoming PM to get us out as quickly as possible. We are not out until we have repealed the 1972 Act.

        • Lifelogic
          Posted June 29, 2016 at 10:41 am | Permalink

          To reply: Keep up the good work JR, I see that BBC favourite Heseltine said something like we needed to check that the public mood for Brexit still had momentum after some negotiations on Newsnight. They still are fighting to remain. The BBC especially, has the EU made a promise of more money to the BBC or something? The bias is still appallingly for remain and running the UK down.

        • oldtimer
          Posted June 29, 2016 at 2:38 pm | Permalink

          re JR reply: Good to hear you and others are working on the best option to get out.

          While you have someone`s ear perhaps they might like to consider this option to finesse the “free movement” principle that the EU demands for access to the single market. Let it be “free” provided it is to fill jobs that also satisfy the points qualification and numbers limits to be decided by a future government. But let there be no more open house. If the EU decides to stick absolutely to its current position then the alternative is WTO terms and all that implies. For most products that probably would be manageable (at c4%) but for cars (at 10%) there is a mutual interest in compromise.

        • Anonymous
          Posted June 29, 2016 at 3:38 pm | Permalink

          To repeal the 1972 Act – doesn’t that need a Parliamentary majority including 75% pro EU MPs too ?

      • formula57
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 8:47 am | Permalink

        Railtrack is probably the only one that engages in such currency speculation (if it has not yet retired its non-Sterling debt which it should have done, its folly and recklessness having been exposed by Mr. Redwood (see past posts to this site).

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:06 am | Permalink

      The sterling trade weighted index was just below 80 on Monday.

      In reverse chronological order, it has previously been around that level:

      For most of the spring and summer of 2013; for most of 2011 apart from the first two months; on and off during 2010; and from time to time during 2009.

  2. zorro
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

    Don’t be ridiculous John 🙂 ! Surely you would understand if you listened to the BBC that the fact that long term interest interest rates have fallen below one percent is a sign of weakness in the UK economy. You see, the economy is so weak that the markets want to be generous to the UK by allowing it to borrow at special low rates of interest, because the markets are charitable to poor countries and those that are weak….. And , of course, any rise in the stock market is a multiple dead cat bounce!


    • Lifelogic
      Posted June 28, 2016 at 6:57 pm | Permalink

      Indeed in short the UK is more credit worthy, not less. But this does not fit the the BBC’s Brexit is a disaster agenda. The BBC is a huge negative to fair UK politics.

      It will be even better still when Osborne is replaces by someone more competent not a difficult challenge. .

    • Lifelogic
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 12:34 am | Permalink

      Rather than saying the markets are showing far more confidence in UK’s credit worthiness and lending to the government at lower rates, the absurd BBC said annuity rates on pensions were collapsing. They seem determined to defend the pro remain propaganda line they have taken all the way through even now.

      • Roy Grainger
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:24 am | Permalink

        BBC top brass have final salary pensions, so it seems to have passed them by that we’re not buying annuities to fund pensions any more.

    Posted June 28, 2016 at 4:14 pm | Permalink

    We’ve heard from the BBC News and Sky News that unlike the previous few days when
    “The Stock markets/Share prices have dived” to
    ” The Stock markets/Share prices have risen. BUT they go up and down all the time so it doesn’t indicate anything. ”

    We are still paying a TV licence fee for this.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted June 28, 2016 at 7:00 pm | Permalink

      Indeed appalling bias from these dreadful fools at the BBC. Without the BBC bias it would have been nearer 2:1 the BBC nearly killed democracy in the UK, they are still trying to.

      • Yosarion
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 9:27 am | Permalink

        When reporting The attack in Turkey they went one better by saying the Airport is one of the busiest in Europe. They really can’t help themselves all that power and no meaning full checks and balances.

        • hefner
          Posted June 29, 2016 at 2:10 pm | Permalink

          A rather mendacious comment: it was correctly said that ” Ataturk in Istanbul is one of the busiest European airports”. It is third behind LHR, Paris CDG, but before Frankfurt.

          Maybe some here could also apply full checks and balances …

    • Bob
      Posted June 28, 2016 at 8:19 pm | Permalink


      “We are still paying a TV licence fee for this.”

      Speak for yourself, I haven’t paid the Licence Fee for many years now, I refuse to contribute to the destruction of Britain.

      • anon
        Posted June 28, 2016 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

        exactly my actions.

      • Jerry
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 12:12 pm | Permalink

        @Bob; You still pay for ITV, Sky etc. and their “contribution to the destruction of Britain”, so rather than just rant about the BBC how about you start campaigning for the better regulation of broadcasters output, but of course you won’t as you quite like the way the broadcasters you do fund are contributing to the intellectual and cultural destruction of Britain amid their race to bottom.

        Oh and how do you know what is broadcast on the BBC if you do not watch it! :p

        • Bob
          Posted June 30, 2016 at 9:38 am | Permalink


          “how do you know what is broadcast on the BBC if you do not watch it!”

          I never said I don’t watch it., I said I don’t pay for it. Keep up Jerry.

  4. ian wragg
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

    The BBC and Sky seem to have lost interest now stocks have recovered and Gideon was positively miserable because the market hasn’t crashed 25%.
    When is he to go.
    This morning he was waffling about an autumn budget to reduce spending and increase taxes,
    Well, lets stop HS2 and save £50+ billion
    Lets stop overseas aid except for disaster relief and save £17 billion
    Lets reduce and stop EU contribution and save £9 billion

    Think that should do it as a start.
    Btw. Jacob Rees-Mogg was on the button when he said “Control our borders, make our own laws and spend our own money” he’s got my vote.

    • Bob
      Posted June 28, 2016 at 8:23 pm | Permalink

      @ian wragg

      “Lets stop overseas aid except for disaster relief and save £17 billion”

      That would be illegal, a bit like holding a General Election part way through a legally prescribed five year term.

      • Dioclese
        Posted June 28, 2016 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

        It’s not illegal if you change the law. Oh I forgot – we can’t do that for another couple of years yet…

        If we refuse to pay the EU any more money, will they threaten to kick us out? Just a thought…

        • Roy Grainger
          Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:26 am | Permalink

          No, the UK foreign aid budget is not specified by the EU, we could stop it tomorrow.

          BTW, just a bit of a parochial crowing from me, looks like Heathrow 3rd runway will be out the window now that Osborne and the other enthusiasts for it are history.

          • stred
            Posted June 29, 2016 at 10:22 am | Permalink

            The percentage of GDP for foreign aid is set by the UN. Only UK and Scandinavian countries do as they are asked. France and Germany pay a much lower %.

          • hefner
            Posted June 29, 2016 at 1:58 pm | Permalink

            Which is what Roy was saying: “we could stop it tomorrow”.

            I am really looking forward to seeing what the next UK government will be doing with the overseas development budget. Contrary to what most contributors on this blog have been made to think, ODA has a neutral to positive impact on the UK balance of payment, as a not small fraction of this money does not actually leave these shores and is spent paying UK companies for overseas work.

            But as it has been abundantly clear on this blog over the year and a half I have followed it, never let facts obscure the bias of a majority of contributors.

            Reply None of the candidates do far has said they want to cut overseas aid. There are modest offsets to aid from exports using the money, but the overall impact is clearly negative on the b of p

          • Bob
            Posted June 29, 2016 at 3:30 pm | Permalink

            @Roy Grainger

            “UK foreign aid budget is not specified by the EU”

            No Roy, it’s prescribed under UK law, 0.70% of GDP.

  5. Mark B
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 4:19 pm | Permalink

    One swallow does not a summer make.

    Markets go up and down for a whole host of reasons, but yes, I understand our kind hosts point.

    Someone should tell the BBC and other media outlets.

    Off topic

    Didn’t Nigel Farage do well in the European Parliament. 🙂

    • Richard1
      Posted June 28, 2016 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

      No I thought Farage made a complete prat of himself. He was just plain rude to all the members from other countries. What’s the value in that and what does it achieve? Likewise his comment that the 52% who voted leave are ‘decent’, implying that the 48% who voted against are not. Similarly his ridiculous call for ‘independence day’ when 1/2 the country are aghast at the result. We need measured talk by public figures in order to bring the country together and to get a good result from the coming renegotiation.

      • eeyore
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:05 am | Permalink

        I thought Mr Farage was speaking beyond all the smug wretches in that Tower of Babel. They were not his true audience. He was really addressing the tens of millions of disappointed, fearful and angry Europeans of all countries who know in their hearts and their pockets that the EU has failed them.

        They will have listened to him with deep interest, sympathy and renewed hope.

        On that basis, Richard, I demur from your judgement. I gather you are not a Farage fan. Fear not: in a couple of years’ time, when things are looking rocky, a scapegoat will be needed. You may have his head then. Two years after that, as Britain powers ahead again, we might at last find it in our hearts to thank and even praise this unique statesman.

      • A different Simon
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:24 am | Permalink

        You have misinterpreted what Mr Farage said .

        Stating the 52% who voted leave was clearly NOT intended to imply the other 48% were not decent .

        Mr Farage was obviously defending himself , his branch of the leave campaign and leave voters who have been categorised as racists , bigots and inbreds (swivel eyed) by people who had refused to entertain a debate into EU membership for the last 20 years .

        • Pud
          Posted June 29, 2016 at 12:59 pm | Permalink

          If the alleged increase in racially motivated abuse since the referendum is a fact then I suggest the Remain side bears a far greater responsibility for it than Leave, because it is Remain who so strongly equated race with immigration. Rather than address voters concerns about numbers the Remain side decided to dodge the issue by suggesting that anyone who wanted controls on immigration was a racist and therefore imply that the issue was the genetics of immigrants rather than how many of them there were.

          • A different Simon
            Posted June 30, 2016 at 8:43 am | Permalink

            I’d swap a million fifth columnist remainers for a million Pole’s any day .

            Oh that Britain could (send ed) the traitors over to the continent .

            The mere suggestion would have the EU scrambling to reverse their policy on free movement of people !

            The Polish builders working on my mates gaff said that if they were British they would vote to leave .

          • stred
            Posted June 30, 2016 at 10:07 am | Permalink

            Pud.Exactly. It is Remaniac MSM presenters and politicians like Khan who are playing the race card and hoping to scare voters from abroad. Have they not noticed that EU migrants are the same race as the average Brit- in fact rather more like the original type of average Brit? It made me laugh yesterday when the BBC sent one of their goons to Newmarket trying to find racists. Everyone was very reasonable and he finally found an absolutely gorgeous Polish blonde young lady who told him she hadn’t had any trouble. Not surprising really.

      • The Prangwizard
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:56 am | Permalink

        No reference to the bile he had to put up with I notice. From Juncker, the incoherent rambler, Verhofstad who is full of hatred, and Italian Socialist etc… and the jeering other members, and grandstanding by the Scot and the fanaticism from Sinn Fein. These are dangerous people.

        I also notice we have not seen any reference to Marine Le Pen’s speech which all about freedom. But no she’s on the ‘wrong side’ isn’t she.

        • stred
          Posted June 30, 2016 at 10:15 am | Permalink

          The clips on our news only showed Farage making his ‘not laughing now remarks and not having a proper job. The offensive shouting of the likes of Verhofstdt and others was cut. The whole speech is on the Guy Fawkes website below the cut version in the comments. It had to be RT that did not censor it.Nigel made a plea for the carmakers to keep tariffs the same and it was noticeable that someMEPs behind were quite enjoying the dust up and trying not to laugh.
          Tory MPs tut tutting does them no favours.

      • Bob
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 9:07 am | Permalink


        “implying that the 48% who voted against are not”

        He impied no such thing, his remark was in response to Remains who have been trying to smear Leavers as racist.

        After all the smears and innuendo he has put up with from his opponents over the years, who would deny him the chance to put them in their place.

      • bigneil
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 4:04 pm | Permalink

        With a reported 72.2% turnout – and only 48% of that who voted to Remain – – saying 1/2 the country are aghast at the result – is giving them more credit than they deserve. Those who actually voted Remain only account for just over a third of the population, Voting Australian style would have given a better, more realistic result.

      • John C.
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 6:39 pm | Permalink

        His remark that “decent” people had voted to Leave was to refute the idea that all Leavers were hate-filled racists; it didn’t imply that no Remainers were.

    • fedupsoutherner
      Posted June 28, 2016 at 6:33 pm | Permalink

      ‘Didn’t Nigel Farage do well in the European Parliament’

      Farage always does well in the European parliament because he has always spoken for Britain first. Funny how they all laugh at him and yet what he prophesised all those years ago has come true. When are people going to take the man seriously? Perhaps at the next, not so far away election.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted June 28, 2016 at 7:00 pm | Permalink

      Indeed he did.

    • Chris S
      Posted June 28, 2016 at 7:08 pm | Permalink

      “Didn’t Nigel Farage do well in the European Parliament.” ?

      When this all settles down, Nigel deserves recognition for what he has achieved. There can be no doubt that Cameron only conceded the referendum because of the threat from UKIP.

      That was a triumph in itself but to win it !

      I’m not comparing Nigel with Churchill and Thatcher, and, to be fair, nor would Nigel himself, but since the end of WW2, no single individual has done so much to change the historical position of our country in the world.

      Nigel deserves a peerage at least but, with all due respect to our host, I would much rather see him in the commons helping to hold the government’s feet to the fire over the terms of our leaving the EU. The peerage can come later.

      Nigel’s presence in Westminster will also help bury Labour in the North.????

      Finally, we can wait till we leave the EU in another couple of years for Dan Hannan to come to Westminster. He should then move straight into the cabinet.

      • Roy Grainger
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:27 am | Permalink

        That’s Dan “Of course we will still have free movement with the EU” Hannan ?

      • A different Simon
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:28 am | Permalink

        It would be fitting if the country could name a major railway station after him or a new airport .

        • Horatio McSherry
          Posted June 29, 2016 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

          Surely a Departure Lounge?

  6. Anthony Makara
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 4:26 pm | Permalink

    Well said John. We’ve got to crush the narratives ‘The Remainers’ are trying to create. These people will do anything to force a delay to Brexit and try to con the public into a Re-Referendum to accept a repackaged version of the same old rot, an old slight of hand that Europhiles have used many times.

    I remember you writing to me about eighteen years ago saying that you would fight every day for Britain against the Eurostate, and here you are today, still battling, post Referendum!

    You are a man true to your word.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted June 28, 2016 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

      Yes, they will do anything they can to neutralise the referendum result. We now have a minister, Jeremy Hunt, openly saying the Article 50 should not be triggered.

      • a-tracy
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:47 am | Permalink

        You can’t half leave a job or a relationship, the other party NEVER trust you again. We have to stay true to our word and put a team together that is intelligent enough to stand up for the UK and will fight for our future.

        There are people murdered in Turkey, lots of families without their mothers and fathers and the Conservatives are once again naval gazing, for goodness sakes you could appoint Michael Howard when you wanted to, in order to bring in Cameron. Does anyone honestly think Theresa May, who thinks we’re all “nasty” can bring the party together, REALLY!

        If Boris does a bad job, we get rid of him at the next election, we will be back in charge now isn’t that what we wanted.

    • fedupsoutherner
      Posted June 28, 2016 at 6:34 pm | Permalink

      Hear, hear to that.

    • Dunedin
      Posted June 28, 2016 at 6:51 pm | Permalink

      “We’ve got to crush the narratives ‘The Remainers’ are trying to create. These people will do anything to force a delay to Brexit and try to con the public into a Re-Referendum to accept a repackaged version of the same old rot, an old slight of hand that Europhiles have used many time”

      I share your concern that there is going to be some re-defining of what we voted for, and am utterly appalled by the statements of Mr David Lammy. If MPs do succeed in overturning or re-defining the Brexit vote, many of them will be losing their seats to UKIP in the 2020 general election.

      • graham1946
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:18 pm | Permalink

        If we get to 2020. They are now trying to get a GE next spring in order to dump the referendum. It must be stopped and any that vote for it should be noted and voted against at any early GE.

  7. Lifelogic
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

    Indeed we will be richer than Switzerland and Norway in not time with a rather better deal. Providing that is we sort out doom mongers on the BBC and the bitter dopes from the remain side. But please do not saddle the party with the dire “we have control of our border in the EU” Theresa May.

    Osborne still taking complete doom, gloom & drivel even today on World at one. His we will mug you if you do not vote my way budget has gone though – what a plonker.

    A man who thinks stamp duty at 15%, a national minimum wage, ratting on IHT, mugging pensions and tenants, introducing a sugar tax and endless tax complexity are good ideas for the economy is not someone to trust even to run a whelk stall.

    Indeed running a whelk stall would be a good education for him.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted June 28, 2016 at 4:31 pm | Permalink

      Theresa May is so boring and misguided, the Tories must be mad if they give her the job. Anyway I have a bet on Boris so it cannot be.

      • Roy Grainger
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:30 am | Permalink

        I see May is reported to be basing her campaign on “Security” – not sure what her positive achievements in that area are and the concerns of the public are not really in that area now.

    • Horatio McSherry
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 3:48 pm | Permalink

      May, one of the many sign-posts of the out-of-touch SW1 mob. Always the favourite of the media and Conservative upper echelons to be the next big [insert topical political role here]. Touted as leader of remain, and now touted as leader of the Conservative Party and country, yet no-one I know, knows what she stands for or what she’s ever achieved. And that’s just the people I know who are interested in politics.

      • Horatio McSherry
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 3:49 pm | Permalink

        * By “remain” I mean “leave”. Obviously.

  8. ian
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

    Works and pension minster is worst person you could have for the new prime minster job.
    He is neoconlib of the top order.

    • zorro
      Posted June 28, 2016 at 6:11 pm | Permalink

      He has no chance – quite amazed that he should stand actually, with the constant Mr Javid as a running mate :-).


      • Roy Grainger
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:31 am | Permalink

        Well, the reason all these no-marks is standing is not to win, it is to be offered a job by one of the front-runners in return for pledging their handful of votes.

        Incidentally, good fun over in the Labour Party eh ?

    • JoeSoap
      Posted June 28, 2016 at 7:17 pm | Permalink

      Worse than Health Sec?

  9. ian
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 4:43 pm | Permalink

    You have really mess up if this man gets into office.

    Posted June 28, 2016 at 4:54 pm | Permalink

    And “it’s a dead cat bounce” …Sky News 17.50hrs today
    It’s a dead duck news service too

  11. Richard1
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 4:55 pm | Permalink

    As a last great service to his country David Cameron should order the issue of £15 billion or so of 50-year bonds to fund infrastructure required for a new runway at Heathrow & give permission for that much needed project to get started. That would be an immediate signal of confidence and would receive widespread approbation from businesses large and small, domestic and international.

    • Roy Grainger
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:32 am | Permalink

      No way. Boris would cancel the runway on day 1.

      • Richard1
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 11:12 am | Permalink

        Well he better come up with a workable alternative. Out of the EU we need to be competitive. We can’t afford indefinite delays to needed measures like this to appease marginal voters

  12. Ray Veysey
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

    All well and good, but we need to get on with breaking the bonds, people are becoming suspicious of a conservative government attempting to water down the commitment to leaving the EU and settle for some kind of “special deal” which can be reversed in time. “vote leave” people admit they didn’t expect to win, I believe that weren’t supposed to win, and like Camerons victory in May 2015, they are not sure how to deal with it. The combination of Leave, and UKIP in Grassroots GO brought the victory but that’s too uncomfortable for them so they are using the smoke and mirrors around choosing a new leader and the domestic row going on in the labour, to cover their confusion.

    • Anonymous
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 3:46 pm | Permalink

      Ray – They can’t deal with it until they are in office.

  13. ian
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

    If things do not change, I can see this country being thrown back into a super state with no opt outs and having the euro thrust on to the country.
    That’s what happens when you go into something without a plan.

  14. Kev
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

    There is life after every earthquake but clearing the mess (in this case created by a marginal vote) takes years Mr Redwood and no guarantee it can ever get back to the state where it stood.

    • Anonymous
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 3:48 pm | Permalink

      There have been plenty of quakes in the eurozone.

  15. hefner
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    Yes, and what about the depreciation of the currency in which these government bonds are denominated? Could you please stop taking us for stupid.

    • Roy Grainger
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:34 am | Permalink

      That is a positive too. Since time immemorial governments have used inflation as a means of reducing their debt levels, a weak currency is excellent news for government bonds.

  16. a-tracy
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 5:30 pm | Permalink

    So why is George Osborne saying he will put up income tax and drop spending, he is still doing Europe’s fear agenda and must be stopped. Why on earth did your party put the nomination deadline back a week, do you honestly think this internal party shenanigans is going down well in the real world?!!

    So the Unknown Crabb has been put out to Stop Boris – look you Conservatives if you don’t give Boris his chance you will be finished as a political force, putting Crabb and his EU fake Javid running mate or May up against David Miliband will be political suicide, very helpful to Europe. Or a ukip lead .

    We’re being set up.

  17. John Robertson
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

    Yes maybe a word needs to be said to Mr Osborne. He should keep quiet or be positive. He is not being a responsible chancellor at the moment and a liability.

    Could even wonder whether he is willing his prophesy to come true?

    Best investment decision I made recently, Natural Resources, gone off like a Chinese fire cracker!

  18. Sean
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

    We need to invoke article 50 now or face another Comeron referendum, you can see it coming. I’ve been receiving surveys backing if I regret voting out. I see some people will change their vote if another referendum is imminent.

    • Graham Wood
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 5:40 am | Permalink

      Not so. Article 50 is quite unnecessary and will merely be an extension of the status quo.
      The more pressing need is to effect de jure what the electorate has done de facto by voting leave and repeal the 1972 European Communities Act (gateway to all EU legislation)
      Article 50 keeps us locked into the EU and even if a satisfactory agreement was reached within the maximum two year period, the settlement would still be subject to QMV by 27 other member states. (Or more if others join in that period).
      No, Article 50 is an elephant trap and the very last thing we need.
      Repeal the Act, stop the cheques to the EU, and thereby stop all incoming EU sourced legislation. That is the clear duty of parliament following this historic vote.

      • Know-dice
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 10:54 am | Permalink

        There was a Richard North article about that, linked to a couple of days back.

        His conclusion was that Article 50 was the only LEGAL way out, although he did seem to contradict himself about this in his posting.

        So, I’m not sure either way…and it will probably need some very expensive lawyers to decide and still get it wrong 👿

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 11:29 am | Permalink

        1. When the UK ratified the Lisbon Treaty it agreed that if it wanted to leave the EU it would do so through the route provided by the new Article 50.

        2. Repeal of the ECA72, or any other legislative act on the domestic plane, would not take us out of the EU treaties on the international plane.

        3. There is a close to zero chance that Parliament would repeal ECA72 despite the outcome of the referendum. Even if the Bill got through the Commons, which is very unlikely, there is a second chamber full of unelected legislators-for-life who are overwhelmingly pro-EU.

        4. It’s not a “maximum” two year period, and it is not our concern how our counterparties to a new treaty decide their common position during the negotiations.

        5. Having achieved a near miraculous victory in the referendum the very last thing we need is to get stuck in the EU forever because we took your advice and didn’t insist that the government must seal it by putting in the irrevocable notification that we are leaving.

      • Ian George
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 8:15 pm | Permalink

        Well said Graham! No to Article 50 (not unless we can spin it around to use against them in some sort of deal).

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted June 30, 2016 at 10:48 am | Permalink

          You should bother about our own traitors before you worry about the EU. You may well get your “No to Article 50” wish, because we will end up staying in the EU.

  19. newmania
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 5:38 pm | Permalink

    .. HA HA HA and in more good news Gold has also gone up …more good news for morons on the hour every hour .

    Its pathetic , better by far to admit the mistake and start helping to undo the damage . If we are out of the single market we are finished as a country .We must say in it and its up to the idiots who did this to apologise about their false promsises to the mob.
    Its all very well tyring to salvage your reputatyon but there comes a point where you have to start thinking about how much suffering you can cause before you start the help

    • Patrick Geddes
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:10 am | Permalink

      China and USA are “out of the single market” I haven’t noticed them being “finished”
      They do not have free movement of their peoples either.

      • Kev
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 10:26 am | Permalink

        You can’t compare Great Britain and Northern Ireland with the likes of USA and China. Just compare the sheer size of those countries with here and the amount of natural resources they have. Chinese people are real hard workers not a bunch of lazy buggers who just lay on the sofa watching crap tv programmes while having fish and chips. USA is in forefront of creating technology and open to the outside world for everyone(they even have yearly green card lotteries to randomly give settlement to people around the world). Economically the LEAVE vote is an absolute disaster. Let’s face it. Just enjoy listening to BBC for the rest of your life while thinking you are master of the world but in reality seeing the world outside has progressed so much that you can’t even dream of it.

        Reply The UK is the worlds fifth largest economy, full of hard working and enterprising people.

        • Patrick Geddes
          Posted June 29, 2016 at 10:57 am | Permalink

          There are many other examples of small nations who trade with European countries with success and no agreement on free movement between them and the EU
          I just chose two at random.

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted June 29, 2016 at 11:14 am | Permalink

          “… not a bunch of lazy buggers who just lay on the sofa watching crap tv programmes while having fish and chips.”

          With that attitude you didn’t deserve to win the referendum.

          Tell you what, Kev, if you think so little of your compatriots why don’t you go and live somewhere else and give up your UK citizenship.

          • Kev
            Posted June 30, 2016 at 5:38 am | Permalink

            Denis –

            You have no rights whatsoever to suggest to other people to give up there citizenship just because they have different opinions. I will continue to challenge any Leave voter who thinks others have no right to say anything different. The UK life raft was sinking and the Leave vote just made another big hole in it.
            With your attitude you would go staightly to jail if you were in either USA or China. In USA because I would sue you for your defaming comments about me, in China because authorities would arrest you for saying something against the wishes of authorities. UK is never going to be USA or China, it’s all pipe dreams.

        • Anonymous
          Posted June 29, 2016 at 12:07 pm | Permalink

          Kev – Then leaving the EU could transform our people and free them from dysgenic socialist policies !

          • Kev
            Posted June 30, 2016 at 5:41 am | Permalink

            Anonymous –

            Only reasonable response to my comment, thanks. Others have only attacked me for saying something different.

        • Kev
          Posted June 29, 2016 at 12:24 pm | Permalink

          correction: The UK WAS the fifth largest economy. No guarantee at all it can keep its place now for long. All predictions is that UK will be in recession very soon and France will surpass them by taking fifth largest economy.

          • Patrick Geddes
            Posted June 29, 2016 at 9:51 pm | Permalink

            Carefully dodging any points made by others Kevin.
            Responding with a trivial point that some say we are the world’s sixth biggest economy rather than the fifth.
            Is that it?

          • stred
            Posted July 2, 2016 at 11:28 am | Permalink

            Kevin. I eat fish and chips while watching the tele and am not a lazy bugger. I am consulting with others and may take a class action agaist you. Please post your name and address.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:11 am | Permalink

      “If we are out of the single market we are finished as a country.”

      Nonsense, it would take less than a year to make up the GDP loss.

      • Lindsay McDougall
        Posted June 30, 2016 at 1:51 am | Permalink

        Not to mention the fact that we could make free trade deals with other countries, leading to – just as one example – cheaper food prices.

    • Anonymous
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 12:04 pm | Permalink

      Newmania – You fail to mention that the EU is an economic disaster zone and it’s getting worse.

      Membership will mean bailouts and redistributive taxation forever more.

      Brexit is being made a lot harder than it needs to be by people in this country who don’t want it. Including the BBC and you.

      To the proles (the ones you mocked in tones more likely to make them vote Brexit) have worked out that imported poverty (mass immigration) is the same to them as exported jobs.

      Either way the EU is collapsing and we have decided to jump rather than be pushed.

      All the EU had to do was give ground of a few silly things and we’d still be in, but no. They couldn’t even do that.

      It’s their fault !

      • Anonymous
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 12:18 pm | Permalink

        Newmania – The Chancellor and PM told the civil service not to prepare for Brexit.

        What is it that europhiles don’t get about democracy ?

    • graham1946
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

      Gold has gone up because the bankers have been ditching the stock market in favour of gold, selling the country out in other words. When the minnows have been scared out of their pension savings etc and shaken out of the market, they will pile back in buying back the stock at bargain basement prices. They did it a few years ago, gold went over $1600 and when they sold out again it went down to $1200. Its what they do. Brexit is the excuse to do it, not the cause.

  20. acorn
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 5:49 pm | Permalink

    JR, can we assume that you are in favour of Osborne continuing to reduce government spending, to achieve a balanced budget (zero primary deficit), by 2019/20.

    The UK economy is gradually slowing down as a result of Osborne reducing the government budget deficit. In reality, he is reducing the spending power of Households, the primary drivers of the economy. Households are not far short of maxing out there credit cards, and certainly will by 2020.

    At the same time, the proportion of UK Gross National Income going to wage earners has reduced, while the proportion going to capital owners, (the metropolitan elites, left and right), has increased. (Gini Index has moved higher since 2010.)

    Thanks to Mr Darling injecting a large quantity of fiscal stimulus into the Banking system in 2009 (at zero cost to the currency issuing UK Treasury), we were starting to recover from the GFC. Osborne killed that recovery with his post election “neo-liberal” budget in 2010. We have basically flat-lined since then.

    Osborne has not yet realised how little control he has over the budget deficit; he missed his target by a mile in 2015. He will miss it again in 2020, for the same reason; he will still not understand why.

    We desperately need a new type of politics in the UK, the same as the USA does. We could start by becoming a republic and extracting ourselves from the 19th Century.

    reply I wish to spend more in the UK as I made clear in my Proposed Brexit budget. the UK has not flatlined since 2010

    • acorn
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:43 am | Permalink

      When do we get to see the Brexiteers manifesto to start getting this plot to slope upwards again?

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 11:01 am | Permalink

        Because Brexiteers were responsible for the financial crisis, and seven years later they have yet to get personal incomes back on the preceding upward track, so when are they going to explain how they will do that?

  21. Leslie Singleton
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 6:01 pm | Permalink

    Dear John–Better would have been: we have reason, rather than need, to be confident….and when are you going to reassure us that we don’t have to worry about the majority of MP’s being for Remain?

    • Leslie Singleton
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:53 am | Permalink

      Next Day–Dunno much about the Swiss system but presumably they have some means of ensuring that the results of their referenda unequivocally stand first time, with none all these ghastly EU-type second go-rounds. Whatever it is I should like some of it here. There is no big principle in favour of the the supremacy of Parliament that I can detect. There was no other way back in 1265 but it’s different now. I for one would like much less involvement from MP’s. My own (Tory) MP is useless.

  22. Margaret
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 6:13 pm | Permalink

    I am confident about a bright future, I am disgusted with the fickle labour politicians. We can see what they are made of ; sour grapes. Don’t resign Mr Corbyn.

  23. Richard1
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 6:15 pm | Permalink

    It seems the EU are to say ‘no notification, no negotiation’ in order to shoehorn discussions into the 2 year period, and so pressure the UKs negotiating position.

    I think before triggering Article 50 we therefore need to have a clear understanding from the government what the alternative would look like if there is no deal – I.e. Trading under WTO rules. In order to make a go of this presumably we would need radical Supply side reforms and low taxes to ensure competitiveness. Singapore and Hong Kong might be the best models. Whether this would command a majority is another question.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:51 am | Permalink

      I’ve seen the two year period described as a “strict deadline”. It isn’t, it’s more in the nature of a target; if it was intended to be a “strict deadline” then the article would not include any provision for the period it to be extended.

      Yes, all 28 countries would have to agree to an extension so that negotiations could be completed; and, yes, it’s conceivable that for example the German government would flatly refuse to agree to any extension, preferring to take some economic damage when the UK leaves the EU without any new agreement to ensure that German car makers could maintain their exports to the UK; but how likely is that to happen?

      Nor is it necessary to agree all new arrangements before the UK leaves the EU; it will be enough to get the basics sorted out so that there is minimum disruption, especially to trade, when the UK leaves the EU and is not longer automatically subject to all its treaties and laws, and have the basic agreement include a long list of subsidiary matters for which the present arrangements will continue until new arrangements are negotiated and agreed and come into force. There could be a target date for completing that process, or several target dates for different priorities, possibly with no target date at all for some minor matters.

      And nor do I see this target date as putting one-sided pressure on the UK. That is like the delusion that generations of pro-EU politicians have consistently tried to spread that the Common Market and the Single Market only work one way, to the advantage of our exporters, ignoring the fact that foreign companies also find it easier to export to us and in fact we run a chronic, massive trade deficit. There will be pressure on the other countries to get new arrangements agreed just as much as there will be pressure on the UK.

  24. Denis Cooper
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

    This is all very fine, JR, but with every passing day our referendum victory slips from our grasp and Johnson, Gove et al are letting that happen, even helping to happen.

    • Brian Tomkinson
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 8:28 am | Permalink

      I agree. The broadcast media throughout the campaign were not neutral contrary to what they are legislated to be and since the result have taken every opportunity to spread doom and gloom. With the exception of Andrea Leadsom and Nigel Farage the Leave side has been silent. Not invoking Article 50 is in my view another ploy to delay in the hope of overturning this result. o listen to the people and carry out their wishes they want the people to accept whatever they foist on them. The attitude can be summed up by that occasion in 2010 when Gordon Brown, after talking to Mrs Duffy in Rochdale said she was just a bigoted woman to his aides.

    • A different Simon
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 8:43 am | Permalink

      The result of Iceland vs England was very close .

      It doesn’t seam right that Iceland should go through when there was only one goal in it .

      How about we start a petition for Iceland vs England to be replayed ?

      • stred
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 10:57 am | Permalink

        Talking of Iceland and their excellent football team, the population of Iceland is about 350,000. Migration Watch has the latest figures for 2015. It’s about the same number and half is EU.

        Boris says we will still travel and work in Europe and vice-versa. If we have an Aussie system and they do too, then we will be able to travel visa- free and get a job, then a permit. That’s the whole point. We will need EU workers and they will need ours. What will not happen is an automatic right to benefits, housing, healthcare etc and coming to sell the Big Issue. Numbers will reduce if we wish.

        Numbers will not reduce if we have politicians like Mrs May around who, according to one ex-minister, does not even want to know what the real numbers are and wishes to ignore migrants that go home in less than a year and then come back.

        Regarding her campaign on security, she thinks we would be unable to co-operate with EU police forces without the EAW and presumably thinks that we need information from the Belgian police to help our intelligence on terrorists. recently it seemed tobe the other way round. Nice shoes and hair though- a sort of female Mr Slippery.

      • Roy Grainger
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 11:12 am | Permalink

        Because we’d lose again.

        • A different Simon
          Posted June 30, 2016 at 8:46 am | Permalink

          No problem .

          We just keep replaying till England win .

      • graham1946
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:05 pm | Permalink

        No, I’d say our goal wasn’t a proper one as it was a penalty. Proper goals ought to count 2 penalties.

    • Chris
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 6:49 pm | Permalink

      I would even go so far as to say that this is intended. Johnson and Gove never expected to win (see Sarah Vine in D Mail which I think indicates this). I think that neither Gove nor Johnson are up to speed on the workings of the EU and pro EU mandarins will be able to run rings round them. There will be a fudge which will not honour the wish of the voters. This wish was clearly expressed in their answer to the question, which was the majority want to LEAVE. That was not saying we want to partly leave, it was saying bluntly we want to LEAVE, full stop.

  25. Dunedin
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 6:34 pm | Permalink

    “I trust the news headlines will blaze the good news from the markets. Since the Brexit vote UK government bonds have shot up to record high. The government which had to pay 1.37% on the eve of the Brexit vote to borrow for ten years now only has to pay 0.98% for ten years. That’s a record low.”

    The news headlines only focus on the calamity of the Standard & Poors downgrade and its potential impact on borrowing rates, but fail to mention that bond yields are dependent on more than just the credit rating (the rating agencies are usually behind the curve anyway). Investors are also looking at other factors including the borrowers’ ability to meet interest and redemption payments, inflation expectations, monetary policy, market liquidity, supply of and demand for paper. The media also fail to the remind the alarmed viewer/listener that their mortgage is priced off the Bank of England base rate and Mr Carney has already ignored his own forward guidance on raising rates.

    The big moves in the FTSE and sterling immediately after the Brexit announcement were partly due to the market pricing in a Remain win at close of business on Thursday. Although the market has settled a bit in the last two days, I am concerned that if there appears to be a policy vacuum over the next 3-4 months then there could be a lot more volatility. The usual thin trading in the summer months can exacerbate market moves.

  26. MickN
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 7:52 pm | Permalink

    I have just seen the following post on Facebook
    “What the hell were they thinking of letting Farage make a speech in Europe”
    Can our universities not run degree courses in common sense and general knowledge

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 6:47 am | Permalink

      They may have seen the “WE’RE OUT” front page headline in the London Evening Standard on Friday:

      Eh, no, we’re still in at the moment, and Farage is still an MEP and fully entitled to attend the EU Parliament and speak and vote, and get paid for it as well.

      • graham1946
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:03 pm | Permalink

        Yes, but that didn’t stop the EU chucking Cameron out of their meeting. I dare say he didn’t want to be there is and just going through the motions of being PM. but the fact is embarrassing for him. He should have told them they had no right to do it.

    • Jagman84
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

      I very much doubt it. They are too busy running remedial classes for freshers. It is a measure of the poor standard of UK education at present.

  27. David Holland
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 8:05 pm | Permalink


    What if anything is wrong with the latest text of Canadian-EU CETA agreement currently being negotiated as a starting point for us? The EU proposes to give Canada 97%+ tariff free trade in goods and services with very limited free movement of people.

    Reply I expect we will find a way of adopting it if something similar

    (CETA) currently in negotiations between Canada and the European Union

    Posted June 28, 2016 at 8:14 pm | Permalink

    Ms Lagarde of the IMF recently said that:
    “My team was totally surprised by the Leave vote. I don’t know whether this was because of the markets or the bookies. But we got it wrong.”

    Persons above my pay rate indicate the way bookies arrive at their odds are not necessarily indicative of who the majority of punters think or bet is going to win and obviously not a scientific indication of likelihood.. Bookies are aware that really large bets can alter the odds of more numerous small bets.

    So its a wonderment Ms Lagarde’s team, and she approves of it, make decisions of profound significance say for Greek people on the betting on the 2.30 at Epsom.

    Perhaps they also close their eyes and stick a pin on a list of the FTSE 100 Index to gain guidance to romantic dates and come up with “Arm Holdings” better the FTSE 250 Index and get a perfect match:”Fidelity China Special Situations”

    • Roy Grainger
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:37 am | Permalink

      Bit harsh. Traditionally the bookies have been the best way of predicting binary referendum outcomes like this in a range of countries.

      • Anonymous
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

        Roy Grainger – I wonder if the bookies made profit on the Brexit bet. That’s all that counts to them.

    • A different Simon
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:43 am | Permalink

      I was talking to an 86 year old ex Foreign and Commonwealth Office civil servant last night who incidentally voted to leave .

      Before every election , the teams were required to prepare plans for all eventualities .

      Even if a landslide was expected they would prepare a plan for what to do if the other side got in .

      I asked him if the Civil Service was full of fifth columnists , he replied that he thought it was “badly lead” .

      Reply The PM and Chancellor stopped the civil service preparing for Brexit

      • Tom William
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 11:37 am | Permalink

        Reply to reply.

        An appalling decision. Why are we reading so many editorials praising Mr Cameron? He is backtracking now but his previous attacks on Brexiteers for having no plans, when they had no access to official resources, is complete hypocrisy.

        Delighted to hear you are helping in the cabinet Office.

      • A different Simon
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 11:59 am | Permalink

        I remember that .

        However , Sir Jeremy Heywood’s failure to stand up to the PM and Chancellor supports the assertion that the civil service are badly lead .

        The alternative that Sir Jeremy Heywood felt there was no need for contingency plans would also support this assertion .

        I think that is reasonable and not tantamount to trial by fire/water .

      • Chris
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 1:25 pm | Permalink

        Reply to Mr Redwood about the PM and Chancellor blocking civil servants working on a Brexit plan:
        That was reckless, and quite disgraceful.
        It would of course also ensure a poisoned chalice was handed over to Cameron’s successor. These are not the actions of a men of principle, integrity and courage, but rather, I think, of unscrupulous, devious and cowardly individuals, who are apparently prepared to act by foul means in order to secure their aims.

  29. bluedog
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 8:38 pm | Permalink

    Short and to the point, Dr JR.

    The rise in bond values and the fall in yields directly contradicts the ratings agencies who have removed our AAA rating. But then they didn’t see Lehman coming in 2008 and were giving AAA bond ratings to collateral debt securities stuffed with junk bonds and worthless mortgages.

    As the Eurozone buckles, Sterling will emerge as the premium European currency.

    Remain continues to deal in emotions and it is not just the European Parliament which is in denial. At some point the Remainians need to recognise that you can’t unscramble an egg, the EU doesn’t want us back and we need to get on with life outside the EU. It is quite clear that the EU leadership rightly regards Brexit as an existential threat to their enterprise. To them, we are the plague, to be kept in quarantine.

    We will not be re-admitted to the EU.

    Remainians who wish to rejoin the EU should consider purchase of a one-way ticket to Gare du Nord.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 6:39 am | Permalink

      We would be readmitted when we came back begging for it, but not on the existing terms. Since Maastricht no new member state has been admitted on the special terms that applied to the UK at the time of their accession, a “special status”, also known as “anomalous position”, within the EU, which historically was only obtained because as an existing member the UK had a veto over treaty changes.

      And the same would apply to any part of the present UK which separated from the UK and then applied for EU membership as a newly sovereign state, they could not hope to inherit any part of the UK’s “anomalous position”. So it would be straight onto the conveyor belt into the euro for Scotland, which might please those SNP supporters who have always wanted that but not the rest of the Scots.

  30. Chris S
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

    I see Soubry has been at it again, even addressing that Pro-EU demo in Westminster this evening !

    How much longer can CMD and the Business Secretary allow his minister for Small Businesses to carry on talking down the UK and effectively challenge the outcome of the referendum ? It’s not as if small businesses supported Remain to any great degree.

    She has to be fired – Now !

  31. Mick
    Posted June 28, 2016 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    Just been watching the dinosaur heseltine on news night, think he along with all the other eu loving traitors need putting in straight jackets and taken away to a secured location were they carn’t be listen to by the genral public, as for a GE this year I wouldn’t take the chance even though I’m not a Torie I wouldn’t want the Labour Party to get in and put a stop to us leaving the dreaded eu

  32. majorfrustration
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 6:44 am | Permalink

    Lets leave the infighting in the EU/Tory Party/Labour Party and just get on and LEAVE

  33. Gary
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:11 am | Permalink

    “CARNEY: Bank of England will provide £250 billion of new capital to prop up markets
    WILL MARTIN FINANCE JUN. 24, 2016, 4:01 PM

    Hardly awe inspiring.

    No mention of the weak pound NOT confirming the bonds’ rise ?

    That says to me that foreigners are not falling over themselves to buy the gilts, so that means the BoE is probably buying them via QE , as they promised.

    It also means the liquidation cost of the debt now becomes more onerous and that means companies will be under even more pressure as their capital is further eroded. Stocks are probably celebrating more buybacks using cheaper borrowing.

    The trade deficit now weighs heavier on us.

    Reply There is no approved programme of official bond buying in place, so gilts are not being driven up by official purchases.

  34. Caterpillar
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:25 am | Permalink

    As has been noted, but nonetheless I’ll repeat,

    1. The market movements can be interpreted in more than one way.
    2.Leave now appear to have lost (or worse than lost) the referendum, and have been outmanoeuvred. The PM has successfully blocked Leave progress and the country is leaning towards another Remain PM and staying in the single market. Out the market with a free trade / low tariff relationship, and movement of labour (with a greater than minimum wage proviso) will now not happen. We are heading for a Remain after all or Norway style worst of all worlds relationship.

  35. Know-dice
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:54 am | Permalink

    Jean-Claude Juncker said the UK did not have “months to meditate” on activating Article 50, which will trigger talks on the country’s withdrawal from the EU.”If someone from the Remain camp will become British prime minister, this has to be done in two weeks after his appointment,” he said.

    “If the next British PM is coming from the Leave campaign, it should be done the day after his appointment.”

    Junker is still in “cloud cuckoo land”, the UK will not trigger Article 50 until it is ready. If you want it done to your timescale Mr Junker, then you need to be more flexible on your approach to pre-Article 50 discussions – simples…

    And to CMD – on balance Brexit was voted for because the cost of “membership” exceeded the benefit obtained from membership including the supposed Single Market advantage.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 10:44 am | Permalink

      If the UK government really intends to withdraw the UK from the EU then it would be normal courtesy to send a diplomatic letter informing the EU institutions and the governments of the other EU member states of that settled intention. The fact that the UK government is holding back from doing that must arouse a suspicion that this is not its settled intention, a suspicion reinforced when a cabinet minister starts talking about a second referendum. We all know what means, we’ve seen it before.

      Reply It was a clear vote, and it is the formal policy of the present government to leave. It will be the policy of the next PM.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 12:18 pm | Permalink

        Then why has the present government not already put in the notice?

        We won the referendum, and now we have nothing to gain and everything to lose by the delay.

      • Chris
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 1:28 pm | Permalink

        Reply to Mr Redwood
        I wish I could have your confidence. The electorate has seen too many apparent u turns to have any faith, particularly in the last few days.

  36. They Work for Us?
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 8:18 am | Permalink

    Astonished to hear Nicky Morgan saying that what the govt needs to do is to better explain why we need to accept free movement of people. This view is counter to the views of the majority of the public who have roundly rejected it in most constituencies. This is a 100% vote loser and she clearly has learnt nothing from the Referendum, her being a candidate as Conservative Leader is farcical.
    Anna Soubry in tears as she addressed a group of “Remainers” saying Brexit was not her fault and that her children’s future was in tatters is beyond parody, possibly only eclipsed by the Scottish MEP begging the EU not to forsake Scotland.
    We need a strong positive leader and cabinet (please please JR) very soon.

  37. English Pensioner
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 8:22 am | Permalink

    I’m more concerned about the instability of the country during the next three months before Cameron’s resignation takes effect. No one knows when (or even if) the formal letter of withdrawal will be written Who knows whether the new PM will also find some excuse for delay, perhaps until after a general election.
    I believe that our Queen should exercise her prerogative as Head of State and write the letter now!

    • Know-dice
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 10:08 am | Permalink

      The problem with Article 50 as I see it, is once triggered you are in the hands of the other 27 countries (read that as Junker, Tusk etc.).

      Our only strength at the moment is choosing the right time to trigger it.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 12:22 pm | Permalink

        Can’t you see that the right time to trigger it will be NEVER?

      • Graham Wood
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 2:06 pm | Permalink

        Know-dice there is no point invoking Art.50 which is clearly a trap for the unwary. It is an EU framework which commits a departing state still subject to all EU law, to the outrageous membership fee, and all the rulings of the ECJ.
        Together with a settlement being subject to the protracted process of sanction by 27 (or more if they join within 2 years), other member states why on earth should we want any of that!
        Far better to cut the Gordian Knot and repeal the 1972 European Communities Act which is obviously legal, constitutional, and necessary to complete Brexit de jure. It’s also quick. Could be done in a day. What’s the problem?

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted June 30, 2016 at 10:54 am | Permalink

          How many times does it have to be pointed out that repealing ECA72 does NOT release us from the EU treaties? All it means is that we are still bound by them but will be constantly breaching them.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 10:32 am | Permalink

      Cameron would be exercising the Royal Prerogative on her behalf when he did it, just as Brown exercised the Royal Prerogative on her behalf when he signed the Lisbon Treaty. In theory she could still do it herself but normally her Prime Minister does it for her and she would not do it herself against his advice.

  38. Denis Cooper
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 8:26 am | Permalink

    Good news: even if our politicians prefer to shilly-shally and put off the evil day when they send in the irrevocable Article 50 notification, in some cases because they hope that evil day can be put off forever, continental politicians are clear that as far as they are concerned we are leaving, after the vote last Thursday there is no going back:

    “Brexit vote irreversible, say EU leaders”

    “Five days after the UK voted to leave the EU, the bloc’s leaders decided at a meeting in Brussels on Tuesday (28 June) to wait before starting the legal process for Brexit, but they insisted there was no alternative to Brexit.”

    Still, there is no valid excuse for Cameron to procrastinate, he should sit down and write the “Dear Donald” letter and get it sent off today. Saying that we should wait to sort out what we would want before putting in the notice is an utterly specious argument, unless the real intention is betrayal then nothing in those discussions could alter the fact that we are leaving and we should formally tell the EU and the other countries now.

    • Know-dice
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 10:11 am | Permalink

      My worry is that the terms of negotiation under Article 50 are set by the other 27 countries, am I wrong in my understanding?

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 12:30 pm | Permalink

        It’s a negotiation. We have our negotiating position, and the other countries have their negotiating position, which will be a common position just as when the EU is negotiating with the US or Canada or whatever. That would still be the case even if the negotiations were not being held under the agreed Article 50, the other 27 countries would still agree their stance and would be represented on the other side of the table as a single bloc. The difference is that will be no bloody negotiations at all if we don’t put in the notice.

      • Jagman84
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 5:03 pm | Permalink

        Trade deals are for people who do not have trust in each other. If they wish to play silly games then we walk away and default to WTO rules. German Industry will soon put a stop to any nonsense. They have far too much to lose. The wide world is ready to greet us and still we focus inward towards the EU. We fight for scraps from the EU table when a veritable feast awaits us outside.

    • Graham Wood
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 2:16 pm | Permalink

      Denis. As posted to Know-Dice above, there is no compelling reason or obligation on the part of the UK to “trigger” Article 50 of the LT. Why should we?
      The LT is emphatically NOT OUR Constitution but an entirely EU construct.
      We can simply walk away from it.
      When the British people voted de facto to leave the EU that is final and irrevocable.
      All the guv’mnt need do is repeal the 1972 Act and do it soon so that the hegemony of the EU and all it’s institutions is finally broken for ever.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted June 30, 2016 at 11:00 am | Permalink

        For a start, because we agreed with the other countries that if we wanted to leave the EU then we would use the procedure laid down in Article 50. You may be happy with the UK giving its word and then casually breaking it but I am not. In any case there is no good reason not to start by trying to use it, and it has the crucial advantage that once the formal notice has gone in it is in effect irrevocable. Carry on like this and we will not be leaving the EU.

    • Peter Scarlet
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 3:03 pm | Permalink

      I can’t see any advantage whatsoever to triggering Article 50 any time soon. As Philip Hammond confirmed on R4 WATO today, there is nothing stopping us from having extensive bilateral discussions with the key member states, in order to hammer out a compromise before triggering the formal process.

      Ask anybody with deep experience of board meetings – you get approval from the members of the board individually before going to the meeting.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted June 30, 2016 at 11:02 am | Permalink

        Apart from the guarantee that we will actually leave, which of course is not what Philip Hammond wants.

    • Chris
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:15 pm | Permalink

      My worry is that the negotiations will not be completed in the 2 years, and unless Cameron gets an extension of the time, right at the beginning of the negotiations, then an incomplete negotiation can be cut off by the EU, with us not having satisfactorily resolved all the issues. You will have seen Richard North this morning discussing this issue? Cameron/his successor really have to be on the ball, and I believe that this is not, sadly, the case. Pro EU mandarins will run circles round them, let alone Brussels. It is virtually impossible to leave the EU, and it will be impossible when the next Treaty comes round. Not that far ahead, I fear.

  39. agricola
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 8:52 am | Permalink

    No need to be gloomy, think positive and let everyone get on with all the opportunities now open to business UK. There is already press talk of trade deals with S. Korea, Australia, and even the US are making positive noises. The casinos of exchange rates, share prices and bonds will sort themselves out. They have to touch base with reality from time to time.

    I was encouraged to hear Cameron, I assume with the agreement of Boris, put it to the EU that the UK would not be offering any special trade deals until there is agreement on immigration. No longer the supplicant, as he belatedly realises that on trade with a £70 Billion negative balance we are in the driving seat.

    Delighted to see and hear Nigel Farage pointing out reality to a very pissed off EU parliament. He deserves serious recognition for what he has achieved. Achievements that lesser politicos are all to ready to take credit for. The EU have a need to enter the real world, and begin addressing the needs and concerns of their peoples if they wish to continue. Chances are they are too cocooned in the Brussels bubble for this to happen, so expect more turmoil in Europe. All very sad and so unnecessary. Having already burdened you with what I think should be our stance after Brexit , some three days ago, I will not repeat it.

  40. Vanessa
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 8:52 am | Permalink

    If you read EUReferendum dot com you will see that we LEAVERS are so ill prepared for this seismic change that all the ideas are coming from the REMAINERS. We must not let this happen because the consequence of letting them make the deals will be that we are worse off than we were in the EU.
    We need to get an agreement that FLEXCIT is the only plan which will work and push this to every MP so that, at least, they read it. It sets out all eventualities if we are blocked on any issue.
    I am appalled that the government in its hubristic mode did not think for one moment of what would happen if LEAVE won and so had no basic plan in place if that were to happen. Naïve and stupid come to mind ! How they misjudged the British public !

    Reply Leave has a clear plan and this is being passed to the government as only a government with a majority can implement it. The Norway option has been ruled out because it does not deliver the promised system of migration control nor all the money we need back.

  41. Denis Cooper
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 9:19 am | Permalink

    I had lunch with some friends on Monday and I was staggered when one of them, PhD and all, was taken aback to be told that Lord Hill was NOT on the EU Commission to act as our representative and he had taken an oath of office that he would serve the EU as a whole. Now I read a Telegraph letter saying he should not have resigned “when Britain needs strong representation in Europe”, and “having been appointed to the post by David Cameron, his responsibility remains to protect Britain’s interests”.

    Actually I agree that he should not have resigned, but for the opposite reason – that if he had been faithfully performing his promise to serve only the interests of the EU before last Thursday then he could have continued to do so afterwards, his personal integrity being unaffected by the way other people had voted, until such time as the UK finally leaves the EU, when presumably he will cease to be a national of one of the EU member states and so will become ineligible to serve on the EU Commission.

    This is the product of half a century of deception not just by our politicians but also by the mass media, and I’m quite sure that many other people on both sides did not really know what they were voting for or against in the referendum. However as it has turned out on balance it has been the deceivers on the pro-EU side who have been bitten worse by the ignorance and lack of understanding they deliberately promoted.

  42. Denis Cooper
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 9:32 am | Permalink

    Incidentally there is a Polish barmaid at the place we go to, and two of us had to spend some time reassuring her that after ten years in the country and with a son at school their life here would not be under threat when the UK leaves the EU. The government could have made it perfectly clear that whichever way the vote went the position of those EU citizens already normally and legally resident here would not be adversely affected, but instead it chose to cause blameless people unnecessary worry in the hope that those who sympathised with them would vote to stay in the EU. In my view an utterly despicable ploy, and one which Cameron and Osborne and other pro-EU ministers must have sanctioned.

    Reply Vote leave issued full reassurance that no-one here legally will be asked to leave. This was confirmed by the PM in his Monday statement.

    • Know-dice
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 10:13 am | Permalink

      I suggested this a few weeks ago and got shot down by Jerry, so didn’t take it any further 🙁

      • Jerry
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 11:05 am | Permalink

        @Know-dice; I said nothing at all about Polish migrants in the UK, I was talking about UK expats in the (now) EU27, and you could not take it further as no one knows what the fate of the various bilateral agreements will be upon Breexit – the only think Brexiters can do is write a ‘wish-list’, what they aspire to once A50 talks begin.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 10:25 am | Permalink

      But Vote Leave was not and is not the government, which deliberately stirred up fear about the position of EU citizens here and UK citizens elsewhere in the EU.

      • Jerry
        Posted June 29, 2016 at 11:13 am | Permalink

        @Denis Cooper; Sorry the government were correct, see my reply to @Know-dice above for why. ‘Vote Leave’ and more general Brexit wish-listing is actually worse than no information, as it is purely ‘election’ propaganda, not a fact.

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted June 30, 2016 at 11:05 am | Permalink

          It will be entirely within our control how EU migrants are treated, and any decent government would have given a very clear assurance that their position will not be adversely affected.

    • Hamsterwheel
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 4:48 pm | Permalink

      Same thing happened with 2 Rumanian waitresses I met in London in a hotel about 6 weeks ago. They were terrified of “being sent back”.
      What I didn’t find out, unfortunately, was where they got that rubbish from.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted June 30, 2016 at 11:06 am | Permalink

        From our despicable government, that’s where.

    • graham1946
      Posted June 29, 2016 at 6:53 pm | Permalink


      In addition to your reassurances, your barmaid has no fear at all. After 5 years here (she has done ten) she has automatic right of residence anyway regardless.

  43. Atlas
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 10:16 am | Permalink

    There is indeed a better life for us. I think some folk should remember that the ‘Ever Greater Union’ with regard to the Euro-zone meant that the status-quo was not an option on the Referendum ballot paper.

  44. Chris
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 11:32 am | Permalink

    The charade of the Conservative Party electing a new leader eventually by September 8 is quite disgraceful in view of the emergency this country now finds itself. This emergency is in large part due to David Cameron being reckless and not having a plan in place in case Leave won. I agree wholeheartedly with the following letter in the D Telegraph today. It would appear that the Conservative Party is putting itself above the importance of the country. Not good enough. An emergency demands special action. Otherwise the referendum will have been in vain, and the wishes of the people will be once again swept under the carpet.

    SIR – I wholeheartedly agree with your leading article. The 1922 Committee must find a quick way to elect a new party leader within days not months. The country needs leadership and an urgent road map of our future outside the EU to prevent further uncertainty.

    Paul Cook
    Hayling Island, Hampshire

  45. lojolondon
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 11:47 am | Permalink

    Hi John, I feel that the BBC’s output since the referendum results have been inflammatory, anti-democratic, and anti-Britain. Please can we do something about this in parliament, I suggest suspending or removing the Royal Charter? It is urgent that action is taken before they do our democracy further damage.
    If anyone has any complaints about the BBC’s coverage of the ‘news’ post-referendum, please go to or and share your experiences.

  46. BOF
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 11:51 am | Permalink

    I can understand the PM resigning after his appalling campaign but I am now dismayed at the Conservative party for the length of time it will take to elect a new leader. Three months is rediculous while the country is effectively rudderless and could it easily be done in three weeks.

    Meanwhile all those people who voted leave because they felt they had been deserted by the government and opposition (if there is such a thing) are wondering what exactly is going on.

    If a remainer gets the top they will be in despair. Also there is not a single remainer, least of all the failure Theresa May that is anyway near good enough.

    Please JR, get Michael Gove to change his mind!

  47. ian
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 11:57 am | Permalink

    You have been excluded from the EU which is a good thing, you are allowed one letter and that must contain in it article 50 or the letter will be put in the waste bin, so that means that you have got to do everything from this end.
    Sending in article 50 would be very bad move, the last thing you want is negotiation with them while you are still in the EU and even when you are out you should not negotiate on trade just keep sending the goods till something happens at their end.
    Financial and insurance should be fully cover by international law by jan 2017.
    You will have dust off the old laws and rejig them and make new ones to make sure no EU rules or laws are left.
    I know it not what you want but it what they want.
    This country is now just a offshore island to Europe so you will have to act like one, even though you are 5th biggest economy in the world, you will have to play this by stelth and tone down the volume in government and the media.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted June 30, 2016 at 11:07 am | Permalink

      More bad advice from you.

  48. The Prangwizard
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 11:59 am | Permalink

    I understand that Mr Redwood once called Cameron ‘my man’. ‘My man’ in PMQ’s has not once in answers to questions been positive about the UK out of the EU. He constantly referred to dangers and risks. He refused to mention the reduction in borrowing costs when he could have done in response to Corbyn, or the continuing rise in the market. He is still being his duplicitous self.

    It is clear that the Remain political establishment from the PM down is determined to undermine the Leave vote – it struck me the PMQ’s was loaded with Remainers and they are out to get it reversed – and with a vengeance too – that was apparent when Douglas Carswell rose and the attitude to UKIP. The animal noises were disgraceful.

    The Remainers are the enemies of democracy and order, not the Leavers.

  49. Denis Cooper
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 12:44 pm | Permalink

    Just to point out again that Parliament had at least three opportunities to assert a right to determine whether a notice should be sent in under Article 50 but showed no interest, so it’s a bit late now for parliamentarians or anybody else to claim that is not a matter of Royal Prerogative without any need for parliamentary authorisation.

    In 2008 when passing the Act to approve the Lisbon Treaty Parliament could have insisted on a section which prohibited the government from putting in a notice that the UK intended to leave the EU under the new Article 50 without having first gained some kind of parliamentary approval, but they couldn’t be bothered to do that.

    Then in 2011 when passing the European Union Act 2011 they could have insisted that Article 50(2) must be added to the long list of treaty provisions where a minister cannot act without prior approval from Parliament and even approval through a referendum, but once they couldn’t be bothered to do that.

    And then again in 2015 when passing the European Union Referendum Act they could have insisted that the Act must say what would ensue from a vote to leave the EU, and that the minister would need prior approval from Parliament to trigger Article 50, but yet again they couldn’t be bothered to do that.

  50. Denis Cooper
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 12:57 pm | Permalink

    By the way, when is Cameron going to remind Sturgeon that the powers devolved to the Scottish authorities do not extend to running their own foreign policy, which is a matter reserved to the UK authorities?

    “International relations, including relations with territories outside the United Kingdom, the European Union (and their institutions) and other international organisations, regulation of international trade, and international development assistance and co-operation are reserved matters.”

  51. ian
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 1:48 pm | Permalink

    If troy HQ and con party PMs vote for two remain PMs to go forward to the constituency, I think they should refuse to vote on that and pick their own PM instead or at least tell them to vote again till they get a choice between a leave and a remain person.

  52. Margaret
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 1:56 pm | Permalink

    I am sure Germany can make it on her own and lead in the EU, but we can make it on our own with the Commonwealth and Americas. We have voted OUT of the little EU who were making us impotent and need to reinforce the need to phagocytise the bad by surrounding it and engulfing it. Out on a limb as an adjunct to another is bad tactics . We need the strength of the EU led by Germany , the strength of GB and the Commonwealth and the greatness of the Americas to stop the replication of those bad apples trying to destroy all that it is good.

  53. ian
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 2:21 pm | Permalink

    With 13 billion pound of the peoples money being sent to 3rd world countries for investments in their politics how long before the peoples demand it back to cushion their stand of living hear and how long will it be that globalists in government stop bringing in people from unproductive countries to productive countries like hear, it has to end.
    The people are fed up with big business and their globalists politician feeding them rubbish through the elites media.

  54. Ken Moore
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 2:22 pm | Permalink

    Redwood for PM!

  55. lojolondon
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 2:37 pm | Permalink

    John, I left this comment for you on Comment Central –

    John, I want to bring to your attention the behaviour of the entire BBC over the last week – every programme, every host, continuously encouraging people to protest, asking how ‘hurt’ they are by the results of the vote, asking people who claim to have been discriminated against since the referendum to call in and share their story, asking what they are going to do about it, continuously repeating that we will have to accept freedom of movement and that we are now at the mercy of Europeans when negotiations start, insulting the various LEAVE representatives from every party. Please can something be done about this to ensure that the BBC represents the views of the whole UK, not just the 48%, and especially the 1% who are so anti-democratic, angry and resentful.

  56. Local Lad
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 2:39 pm | Permalink

    Hear, hear Mr Redwood! Let’s start talking up the UK and emphasise our strengths. The Institute of Directors is spreading gloom and doom as is our Chancellor – except for that brief ray of sunshine on Friday when he seemed to be saying that we are strong and should accept the result and work together. From his subsequent words, I am not sure he really meant it.
    Now we have Mr Cameron going to Brussels cap in hand and assuring them that we really love the EU and will do almost anything to stay in. Not the way to start negotiations. Why not simply say that we are OUT and will no longer play by EU rules. Here’s a blank sheet of paper, have the EU any suggestions like UK and EU putting up tariffs against each other? Would they really opt for such an action which as you have pointed out would hurt EU even more that it hurt UK.

  57. Chris
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 2:54 pm | Permalink

    Juncker and Tusk today:
    “You’ll get no exceptions! EU leaders tell Britain it must accept freedom of movement rules if it wants access to single market as they start plotting Brexit WITHOUT Cameron

    “European leaders meet without Britain for first time at Brussels summit
    Agree Britain shouldn’t have single market access without ‘four freedoms’
    UK will have to accept open borders if it stays in tariff-free trading bloc
    EU Council President declares: ‘There will be no single market a la carte’
    Downcast Angela Merkel met other EU leaders without Britain in Brussels
    They’re fighting to stop EU from falling apart amid fears of Brexit contagion…”

  58. Chris
    Posted June 29, 2016 at 7:20 pm | Permalink

    I have at least 6 posts awaiting moderation, some from much earlier in the day. Can you possibly indicate if there is a genuine problem, as I would appreciate some feedback. Many thanks.

  • About John Redwood

    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

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