People who are out to talk us down and into recession should get out more.
On Saturday afternoon I took some time off to go to the Globe theatre. I walked along the south bank to get there on a sunny day. It was extremely difficult doing so, as the generous walkway was crowded with people. At each of the attractions, like the London Eye, there were long queues to pay and visit. The numerous cafes and restaurants were packed, even though I was not passing at a peak mealtime. When I and my friends did buy lunch it was a good job I had booked well in advance as the place was completely full.
The London I walked through is still a forest of construction cranes. A large building of very expensive new flats was  opening for occupation. I was told 80% of them are already sold, with the small starter unit costing an eye popping £800,000. That must be foreign buyers still coming.  The tube is regularly overloaded, and not just at peak hours.
In Wokingham local businesses tell me their turnovers are fine, and employment remains at very high levels. Estate Agents report a brisk trade with many viewings and offers for properties at or around asking prices. The Wokingham traffic is as bad as ever, implying plenty of activity. Some of  commercial property funds which gated following an early rush for the exit, are now facing inflows from buyers and having to adjust their pricing upwards to take this into account.
With employment up, real wages up, interest rates down and money and credit expanding a recession is unlikely. Government borrowing rates have just got much lower, the FTSE 100 is up over the last month, and there is plenty of activity in the commercial property market. One company has just reported letting some remaining space in a City building at ÂŁ100 a square foot.
July 25, 2016
This is not what I see on the telly, and nor is it the impression I get from statements made by our new Chancellor as reported on the telly.
Please could somebody tell him a) to cheer up, and b) to be more careful that what he says cannot be so easily misrepresented by diehard opponents of Brexit?
July 25, 2016
Hi John,
I think you really need to reflect on what the wider UK metrics are also telling you, and not to judge whether we are approaching recession based on your local experience.
In my area businesses are pulling back on investment related to manufacturing because the increased cost of the machinery and raw materials required for their factory now offsets the benefits.
My experience is completely consistent with the CBI report, and the UK PMI index.
If you continue to follow your instinct based on your local experience you are presenting yourself as out of touch and aloof from the electorate and completely at odds to what Leavers stand for.
Reply Let’s see early next year if there has been a recession, when we get two more quarters of GDP figures.
July 25, 2016
I cannot say I see much drama in terms of cut backs but I do see deferred plans both in my own company and generally, property is certainly slowing in our area ( not so far form Redwood land actually ). There is great deal of anxiety , many people are working in the City either in Banking or ancillary to it and all are aware that in a ruthless world being outside the single market and capital passporting will directly threaten their jobs and families. I know more than one family that have been in tears that they must now suffer years of uncertainty as whole industries are at risk of disappearing form the UK. What John Redwood may not have registered is that 4500000 Conservative voters voted remain on conservative and business grounds ( aside from a dislike of low browed rabble rousing populism )
You would be amazed how many jobs do depend on the single market and what makes me so very angry about the Brexiteers and their ignorance of how the world of wealth production works in this country. Yes the drivers , builders retired and underclass voted Brexit in their droves; but the managers entrepreneurs leaders and foot soldiers in the UK`s new services media and creative exports voted against it to a man and woman.
Lets be frank shall we , it was easy in the last two weeks to drop the lie that we could close our borders and remain in the single market because no-one who knew who it was, was voting Brexit anyway .
Thats the problem . On any coming recession , with two or three years to go before anything really changes people have no option but to get on with things at some stage but this is a minor matter . It does give you some idea of the sort of hysteria you can expect when article 50 is invoked and we are trapped in a train to disaster
July 25, 2016
‘Yes the drivers , builders retired and underclass voted Brexit in their droves; but the managers entrepreneurs leaders and foot soldiers in the UK`s new services media and creative exports voted against it to a man and woman.’
One word…despicable. You are everything that is wrong in this country.
zorro
July 25, 2016
John, I suspect that your blog is starting to attract ‘attention’….
zorro
July 25, 2016
Newmania
You live in a dream world
You know nothing about either banking or the jobs market. No its a total lie that so many jobs rely on the single market. Its moonshine .
I’m a brexiteer I own 9 businesses I know more about business than you ever will. Your stupid posturing opinions aren’t based on a single fact they are all just wishful thinking.
Stop crying, go get a job, theres 750,000 unfilled ones at the moment
July 26, 2016
Newmania – The Conservative Party won an unexpected majority in 2015 based on the promise of a referendum.
Guess what ? No-one who wanted a referendum wanted to stay in the EU.
Indicision based on “nearly the same amount wanted to remain in the EU” is a recipe for stagnation and disaster. I doubt most who voted Remain did so without holding their noses anyway.
July 26, 2016
Newmania – I see no rabble (except, perhaps on the ‘I luv EU’ front)
The people excercised peaceful, patient and democratic will through the ballot box as they are entitled to do and now it is you who call them silly names.
They turned attention to membership of the EU (and an eventual demand for referendum) through elections over years of measured and incremental electoral protest.
This was no rabble.
The Remain side were just too thick to get the message and were clearly caught out by the June result (as is evident in your hysterical postings.)
Whether it’s right or wrong, I’m glad you dislike the Leave result. etc ed.
July 25, 2016
What was buried in the CBI survey today ( and didn’t make the news was that a positive balance (16% I think) of manufacturers expected output to increase in July.
July 25, 2016
Denis, Hammond is an Oxford PPE graduate, that basically tells you he knows nothing about fiat currency macroeconomics. Oxford was in his day, and still is, mainstream neo-liberal, New Keynesian. That is, they still think the Treasury has to borrow its own money before it can spend to buy common goods and services, from the private sector, on behalf of UK society.
Westminster has just swapped one neo-liberal Chancellor for another neo-liberal Chancellor. I pray one day, we might get some “Post Keynesian” thinkers out of Cambridge or Manchester Universities, to run the Treasury.
The BoE Governor is concerned about the rapid increase in consumer credit in the last two years; currently expanding at 10% per year. The Osborne plan always was to swap government deficit for Household deficit (borrowing).
The BoE has long since given up with the UK obsession with amassing large quantities of debt to buy residential property that generates no income. The ONS has to impute a fictional rental cost of such owner occupied property, to get a decent GDP number.
We are heading for unsustainable levels of household debt. Government never runs out of its own money as the currency issuer. Households are currency users; there comes a point where they hit the credit brick wall and they stop spending.
Have a read of OBR’s latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook for the detail.
July 25, 2016
@Denis Cooper; “Please could somebody tell him a) to cheer up, and b) to be more careful that what he says [..//..]”
To whom is your comment directed to, our host or our new Chancellor? Many who live in a world away from party political spin, the Westminster village and political blogs are already seeing problems, companies desperately attempting to absorb costs rather than pass them on, costs that have been directly caused by market and currency flux from the Brexit vote.
Many of the surveys and reports people like you and our host dislikes are looking to the future trends, not just what is happening this week or last week, nor just what can be seen from walking or driving down the any given city or town. Who will be proved correct, we will only know that in three, six, twelve months time, but it is not wrong, nor is it irresponsible to issue warnings, quite the opposite…
July 26, 2016
The new Chancellor, of course. Our host is always cheerful, and he is also careful to forestall possible misrepresentation of his views.
If you want to look beyond what is happening this week or last then it is worth keeping an eye on my comments, like this three days ago:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2016/07/23/a-rushed-and-early-pmi-survey/#comment-825260
“There’s a chart of PMI back to 2013 here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/07/22/project-fears-worst-nightmares-have-not-come-true-still-brexit-w/
It’s been a downwards trend since October 2013 when the composite peaked at 62, by January 2016 it was already down to 56 and what has happened since then has been a steepening of the pre-existing trend.
Obviously one cannot discount uncertainty over the referendum as a negative influence on top of the others which already existed. It would have helped if the government had not decided to inject its own massive dose of negativity and had instead made some sensible contingency plans in case the vote went against them, a failure which the Foreign Affairs Committee has condemned as “gross negligence”.”
July 25, 2016
Just watched an interview with a Businessman on BBC Breakfast where he pointed out the the pound was as low as 1.12 to the Euro only a few years ago, her response was the ÂŁ has taken a Pounding, they are out to talk it down so they can say “told you so”
I also see that the Welsh called an Emergency Meeting of the British Irish Council last week to talk over the implications of Brexit. When will there be some English representation on this body John?, it can’t be right that a body that includes a foreign Country (Eire) is discussing what should happen without an Englishmen in the room.
July 25, 2016
ÂŁ – Euro
11th March 2013 – 1.143
3rd July 2011 – 1.105
13th October 2009 – 1.073
30th December 2008 – 1.030
& Today @ 11:16 – Low 1.191, High 1.198
July 25, 2016
@Yosarion; @Know-dice; Irrelevant! How many current contracts though are priced at Dec 2008 FX rates, never mind other factors such as inflation etc. We are here and now, not back in 2008, or even 2013…
July 25, 2016
hahaha….. Irrelevant! You’ve convinced me Jerry….
zorro
July 25, 2016
Or have fixed price futures for the next year or more.
July 25, 2016
Indeed but it could be far better still.
A statement from the chancellor cancelling HS2, announcing two new Heathwick runways and saying he will be heading in the lower & simpler taxes, cheap energy, decent roads, relaxed planning and a bonfire of red tape direction. This to make the UK a country that welcomes the hardworking, innovative and wealthy rather than treating them as cash cows to be milked, abused & chased abroad. A country with real incentives to work hard and invest well.
July 25, 2016
All Hammond has to say is:- As the new Chancellor I will undo the vast damage Osborne has done with his endless tax grabs, his IHT ratting, his endless tax complexity increases, his huge borrowing, his massive trade deficit, his absurd levels of stamp duty and his counterproductive attacks on pension pots, non doms, landlords and thus tenants’ rents.
I will go for simpler, lower, fiscally neutral taxes that will raise more in the end anyway and will generate jobs and growth for all. I will cancel HS2 and Hinkley Point kill all the green grants and will go for cheap energy. I will scrap the absurd workplace pensions yet another damaging tax/burden & distraction from productive activity for employers.
Why has Philip Hammond not said anything much at all (that I have heard or read anyway)?
He also need to address the tax breaks that discriminate against (for example) small coffee shops and give better tax breaks to huge chains who buy all the small ones up and other such tax structures.
July 25, 2016
It is true that things are doing well but it is also true that things can never last. Please do not make the same mistake as a ex-chancellor made when stated, ‘An end to boom and bust.’
As someone who is charged wifh holding the government to account, can we please start to return to fiscal responsibility ?
In the sector that I work in things were already beginning to slow. A number of clients have placed some on due to BREXIT. Lets give 6 months then we will see.
July 25, 2016
I don’t disagree with the general point about not talking ourselves into recession, but it’s a very different story beyond the South East, John.
July 25, 2016
“It’s a very different story beyond the South East” Bill R
True, and even in parts of the South East certain areas have never really recovered from 2008. Our high street is still full of boarded-up shops, we’ve still lost two major employers, there are few new enterprises starting to get people into work, and there are hundreds of applications for each vacancy. As one of the locals said around the referendum, voting to remain is ‘a vote for more of the same…and the current situation sucks.’
And that said, Brexit hasn’t made it any worse than it was. In fact it has helped: we’ve got a few new firms looking to set up by taking advantage of the low pound. The media doesn’t seem to want to cover this though.
Reply There is a problem in many locations of boarded up shops. This is mainly caused by technical change, as retail sales volumes are well up on a few years ago. More and more people are buying on line and not using local High Streets. People now gravitate to event shopping on special occasions, using the big malls and large centres like Oxford Street, but use the web more and more the rest of the time. High Streets need a high proportion of restaurant/coffee shop/entertainment space to make them work.
July 25, 2016
A1
I’d be very interested to know what part of the South East is suffering a jobs shortage !!
July 25, 2016
John,
Those of us who live in the less economically prosperous regions of the country might well suggest that your own advice “to get out more” should include areas outside of London and the South East of England.
We rightly criticise the EU for not accepting he idea that surpluses have to be recycled between the wealthy North and the depressed South. Yet, we are somewhat slow to recognise there is a real need to spread the spending power around in the UK too. Governments have to be wary of increasing spending power, or regional aggregate demand, in areas which are already running at full capacity. That would just cause extra inflation as prices rise as a rationing mechanism.
But, there is no cause for worry that extra spending in the recession hit regions would cause inflation. If spending were increased in Middlesbrough or Londonderry there would hardly be a wages explosion there. There would instead be more jobs created though, and it would be good to see a few cranes on the horizon, and citizens enjoying the cafe life in these places too!
Reply I agree
July 25, 2016
Well said – the south East is booming, in fact unrecognisable to the North. Teresa May needs to re-energise the Northern Powerhouse now – scrap HS2 and commit to HS3 – thats what the North REALLY wants
July 25, 2016
It’s time for a bit of experimental economics, as no govt seems to have the answer as to how poor areas can be regenerated. So I suggest two trial enterprise zones – one in the North East and one in Wales. A low, flat rate of tax should apply to anyone living there (with a residency test to ensure people can’t just buy a low rate with a property). 10% Corp tax for businesses based there pro rata according to the number of people they employ in the enterprise zone, and 10% CGT. Then let’s see how that goes, and if – as I suspect it will be – it’s a great success, we can turn the whole country into an enterprise zone.
July 26, 2016
Various countries have experimented with low-tax enterprise zones. They can work but problem is that the areas immediately outside the zones can be adversely affected in an unfair way.
Nevertheless that wouldn’t be a problem in Northern Ireland, if it was for the whole region. There would be a good case for doing that and we can assess the the results easily enough after period of time.
It probably would work because the differential tax advantage would make it more attractive for any company to base its operations in Northern Ireland than it currently is. At present NI is at a disadvantage because of obvious geographical reasons.
But that doesn’t mean that it would still work if the same tax rates were applied UK wide. The relative geographical disadvantage would then be just the same as it is now.
July 25, 2016
No recession yet. Brexit may insulate us from the disaster in Europe and the cratering US economy for a while but batten down the hatches and put something aside for the bad times which are coming.
July 25, 2016
“….. put something aside for the bad times which are coming.”
Ah but it doesn’t work like that for government. It can’t put anything aside. The pound is just a tax voucher essentially. If the government actually printed ÂŁ20 tax vouchers they’d be functionally equivalent to ÂŁ20 notes.
In other words, just as Sainsburys can’t prepare for a lean time by saving its own shopping vouchers, and the Royal Mail can’t prepare by saving its own stamps, neither can our Govt prepare by saving its own IOUs called pounds.
July 26, 2016
It could put aside other assets – gold, foreign currencies, real estate, etc.
July 25, 2016
My neighbour an online estate agent tells me that he sold 3 properties last week. Pretty average. 3 houses on our street are having extensions and I have just ordered a new Honda Civic. Was going to have a Mazda but I thought I’d do my bit for Britain.
If there’s a recession it certainly isn’t here in the East Midlands.
July 25, 2016
Also the government need a clear determination to ensure the state sector actually delivered some vaguely competent public services occasionally in health, education, the court systems, mental health, road, criminal justice and the likes.
Some tax breaks or vouchers to encourage private provision in health and education would be an excellent plan. Training some more UK doctors and health professional would be a good plan too rather than constantly importing them.
Also get some real competition in banking, which lacks any real competition and is is able to pay virtually nothing on deposits yet charge a fortune on overdrafts, fees & lending margins.
Often these are very well secured and to customers who are a far better risk than the bank is itself.
Do we not have a competition authority or something for banking? If so what are they playing at? Why do they ignore the total lack of competition in banking. The banks are being allowed to recover their past losses by milking current customers due to the lack of real competition in the market. Could it be that much of banking RBS & Lloyds belongs to the government so these high margins and fees are, in effect, just another tax on UK businesses and individuals.
July 25, 2016
Your blog makes quite a contrast with the Financial Times! Perhaps you should compare notes with the FT as I assume you are in regular contact with them through your column?
July 25, 2016
Yes, totally over crowed everywhere pretty much. I’m going to drive to and try to park at Birmingham Int’l Airport this pm. I may get there if the overcrowded M42 doesn’t suffer a pile up and/or I can find somewhere to park at rip off Brum Airport car parking. And then there’s trying to return home without incident?
Thankfully I don’t do this often!
O/T: Seems the foreign single pshyco killers in Germany are killing foreigners. They clearly need professional help?
July 25, 2016
Whoopee, give the cat another canary.
July 25, 2016
We often do the same in London and notice all the activity. My family member who is a keen remainiac also is busy at work, has been offered work with two expanding firms and is having some success setting up his own online business. But, while in France last week he has been tapping his smart phone and informing me of the British news while we watched the French. According to the media it is THE post brexit disaster, THE recession, THE mistake.
The most amusing bit of propaganda I saw was a French magazine with a picture of Boris and Donald on the cover with the title ‘Why have the Brexiteers been brainwashed?’ Inside they had an article on how Trump supporters were thick rednecks who believed the lies and for us they had been to Clacton to understand how stupid the British had been. There was a picture of some particularly unattractive bungalows and the journalist had concluded that ‘the climate is so cold that the population just stay in watching their televisions.’ So there you have it, the BBC and MSM has been feeding them so much anti-EU propaganda that 52% of us dunces have been brainwashed. The mag was 4E so I did not buy it, but wish I had as a souvenir of the Brexitcide.
On the way to Barcelona airport in 30C of heat, we passed 3 large Irish cattle lorries and saw the poor cows standing and looking out through the side. If we do eventually manage to leave, it may be possible to stop this cruel trade passing through our roads. It passed my mind that the trucks could be used for the most abusive and ignorant of the Remainiacs, who would be much happier in Barcelona.
July 25, 2016
They have hardly any legislation in spain for protecting animals. They have no rights. Spain would probably ignore any legislation anyway like they do for a lot of other things. A nation that loves watching someone stick a knife into the back of the neck of a bull while they taunt it wouldn’t care.
July 25, 2016
When I voted Leave I meant it. I did not vote for the watered down version that May is reported as discussing with the EU. A version that woulf result in us still belonging to the single market with all it’s political add ons. Still paying for the privalege and having no real control over immigration. If that is May’s interpretation of Leave then the conservatives have had my last vote. Prepare to join the Corbanistas in the wilderness. If true ,as reported, it is outrageous.
July 25, 2016
Agricola. You can’t join the Corbanistas. Jeremey Corbyn would apply to re-join the EU.
July 25, 2016
We keep getting told about the economic shock of Brexit and the importance of mitigating it and Hammond, May and Johnson seem to be going along with that.
Surely the shock is political not economic, demand will not change and supply as ever will be down to competitive advantage. The remainers I guess supported by the civil service,are continuing to try and frighten us and talk the market down to neuter what the British public voted for.
With so many countries seemingly lining up to talk trade, China being the latest, South Korea signed an important agreement re Fintech last week maybe you would tell us why we are not seeing this economic dissembling not agressively countered by our purported big hitters. Davis and Fox seem to be suspiciously quiet.
July 25, 2016
I live in Cheshire, but on my trips to London I totally recognise your description of a walk on the South Bank. It is indeed extremely hard to get a table in even the more expensive restaurants. This is not just in high summer either, but at most times during the year. Some serious money is being spent there. Also Oxford Street is a nightmare with the crowds so dense one can hardly move.
I have not seen much change in my local High Street either. It could be that the dire predictions made by some people are a bit premature!
July 25, 2016
Now a retired pensioner so not involved with business anymore, but like you John I see no signs of any cutbacks by people on my journeys out and about.
Our family are still continuing with all the spending we normally undertake, including a small update of our home.
Of course time is still young and things may change, for better or for worse.
The good news is that many Countries (with a high percentage of total World trade) are now openly looking to do sensible trade deals with us, which must be good news for the economy, jobs, and our future prosperity.
July 25, 2016
THERE WAS NO MAJORITY TO LEAVE THE EU. 37.4% OF THE ELECTORATE IS NOT A MAJORITY. AS A RESPONSIBLE POLITICIAN YOU SHOULD NOT PEDDLE BREXIT ON THE BACK OF THAT TRAVESTY OF A POLITICAL DEVICE, THE REFERENDUM DOES NOT REPRESENT THE POPULATION IN A PARLIAMENTARY DEMOCRACY.
Reply Yes it does. The elected government put through the referendum having won an election to do so. The government made clear if we voted to leave then we would indeed leave.
July 25, 2016
MKj
By your logic there was even less of a percentage to remain.
You cannot make people vote, if they choose not to take up their democratic option and vote, then that is their prerogative and they then by default have to accept the choice of those who did.
If you don’t vote, don’t moan.
Enough information was given out about registration, and the time given to register was even extended.
July 25, 2016
Well said Alan
July 25, 2016
@AJ
A comment I read in MSM recenty from “Grumpy_Northerner” •
July 25, 2016
Brilliant. He forgot Bob Geldof!
July 25, 2016
In some countries it is obligatory to vote. I think our system is better. If say as in the referendum, you are not sure which way to vote, surely it is fairer to not vote at all.
July 25, 2016
Well said Alan. These lop-sided sore losers who would like us to keep voting until they get the result they want, need to be put in their place.
Tad
July 25, 2016
Agree totally Alan. If you don’t vote then don’t moan. Everyone had a chance to vote and if it is that important to you then vote.
July 25, 2016
The only thing that can be read in those that did not vote is that they were with the majority winners and did not care which way it went . If they were not I am sure they would have turned up. So the leave vote was a landslide. Even if that was not the reason they did not turn up they should of known that is what a non vote implies.
July 25, 2016
Another bad loser.
The time for you to put forward this argument was when the referendum Bill was going through Parliament. In fact you could have started back in 2013 with the abortive Private Members’ Bill introduced by James Wharton. If there had been less of the yacking on about how schoolchildren and EU immigrants should be allowed to vote then one or two more central issues might have been addressed.
July 25, 2016
The Leave majority (if averaged over each MP’s constituency) would be around 2000 – this would be nowhere near close to recount territory had this been a general election.
We voted one-man-one-vote across the country and we voted as a country. This was agreed from the outset. Breaking down the result on a regional and demographic basis is a divisive and mischevous ploy by Remain.
The age breakdown is particularly cruel. As and ‘old’ person I could easily have another 50 years to live. Yet I find my kids being wound up against me.
July 25, 2016
Do you know what MJK Langford, we don’t care what those that didn’t vote think. They had their chance like we all did. I wish those that didn’t vote would all shut up.
July 25, 2016
I look forward to reading similar anecdotes on this site later today from residents of Hartlepool, Stockport, Barrow, Rotherham, Oldham et. al.
July 25, 2016
It is rumoured and reported that your new leader, elected by less than 185 people, is planning to remain in the single market and agree to a seven year emergency brake on immigration whilst still paying into the European project. What part of NO we don’t want that, does she not understand? Over 17 million people have told her after the biggest project fear on record, that still continuing with our banana republic media. There will be considerable unrest if she does not deliver the trade and friendship deal only!
We voted out, we want out, return of British law supreme over European, control of everything back to the UK. We have voted for the return of our independent sovereign democracy. Get on with it.
Why do British politicians think they can carry on doing double standards? UKIP has not gone away and we will be watching her and the Government every step of the way!
July 25, 2016
Timeaction.
There will be considerable unrest if she does not deliver the trade and friendship deal only!
Too bloody true there will be unrest enough is enough. If they the elected politicians are not up to the task, resign. Above all be honest to yourself and beliefs.
Coupled with the handout to Clegg and all the other Cameron cronies the perceived respect and value of some if not nearly all our politicians is all but dead and buried.
If UKIP really get their act together and vote in the right leader (as it is in this moment she has been banned from standing) then a lot of the existing members will be smelling the fear of being out of a job and how to invest their pensions.
The electorate have had enough and the traditional parties cannot see it.
July 25, 2016
Hear, hear Timeaction. This situation is dire and democracy will be dead if this watered down deal goes ahead. I and many others will never vote for the 3 main parties again.
July 25, 2016
If interest rates and money supply was not a government monopoly and decided upon by the whim of so called experts then the state of the economy would not be speculation. It could not be used as a tool for personal gain(the wealthy having the first and largest slice of the pie) or to manipulate us (duping us into following actions that others want us to rather than taking the right course of actions because we do not have any information available other than that supplied by snake oil salesmen).
Market based interest rates and money supply would indicate the state of the economy in real time. It would tells us what millions of people are thinking and doing from which plans can be accurately adjusted. Fiat money ensures wealth is static so the poor lose out. Abolish it. Market set interest rates would dampen booms and busts would lessen the risk of malinvestment which causes booms which happens all to often when they are set too low and causes busts when they are set too high. So our economic well being is being decided by grey men who have inflated opinions of their own abilities when we could quite easily decide our own economic well being.
July 25, 2016
JR, I wonder if you have any view on the veracity of this assertion by Rupert Soames, chief executive officer of Serco:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/24/seco-boss-we-need-five-years-to-prepare-an-eu-trade-plan/
“Some have suggested that we could both stay in the single market and negotiate independent free-trade deals with other countries. I am completely certain this is not achievable.
For good reason, the EU will be unwavering in its insistence that if we stay in the single market, any trade deal we negotiate with another country will be on terms no better than that country enjoys with the EU. They will not allow the UK to become a “back door” that will allow other countries to bypass EU trade arrangements.”
We know for sure that we cannot conclude independent trade deals with third countries while we are in the EU, is the same true if we stay in the Single Market?
Reply The single market is an integral part of the EU. Accepting its sovereignty of course means accepting they control external trade for us. That’s another good reason why I want to leave the so called single market as it is a big part of the EU, and trade with it from outside its treaty.
July 25, 2016
The EU does not want us to leave, but at the same time will not give us anything worthwhile to keep us. Their project for ever closer union must not be diluted and UK is required for its financial contributions, territory, fishing grounds and manpower. Every trick will be tried to keep us in without interfering with their project. Our being in the EU only benefits the EU, no benefits come our way. We don’t need to negotiate, we just walk away, withhold our contributions and ignore their rules and directives. The manufacturers and producers of Germany and France will demand that we have access to their markets.
July 25, 2016
Vera. Talk about blackmail!!
July 25, 2016
Another day and another report of dreadful Muslim attacks against innocent unarmed people. Mass immigration in Germany is not working despite cover ups of offences and playing down trade ties. I hope Merkel is booted out of office at the next election and Hollande as well in France.
If access to the single market means a temporary brake on freedom of movement, NO DEAL. Other countries have access to the single market without freedom of movement applying. No EU light thank you. May can stick this sort of deal where the sun don’t shine.
I trust RUDD is taking the French to task over the Dover spite. Friendships and deals works two ways, not the previous Cameron give away for nothing in return shams.
July 25, 2016
Given all of those travelling to or through France will be spending some money there, you would think they would encourage people to come, not make it difficult.
Aware you need to know who is coming and documents need to be checked, but to leave passport check in’s closed and unmanned is just silly, a point I have made before on this site after visiting France twice last year.
Perhaps their economy is doing so well they do not need visitors with money to spend !!!!
July 25, 2016
Alan. Ha,ha,ha. The border between Spain and France was totally unmanned 15 years ago. Things haven’t changed since then. You could get guns through easily. We were legal with ours but I am sure many weren’t.
July 26, 2016
fedupsoutherner
Agreed, indeed they were only last year, but we are living in very different times now, and the UK has never been part of Schengen.
Calais, Caern and the like have had fewer and fewer French officials in situ for the last couple of years though, and have left it to the UK to police thesis ports and rail terminals in all reality when travelling into the UK.
July 25, 2016
Brexit is exit from all the things we hate about EU you can’t start stretching the rules who wants to not the people who voted OUT.
I just wish DOGGY DAVE had prepared for exit so article 50 could have been signed the day after the vote. You see Dave and George never came up north to the places were people were loseing jobs to migrants they we so sure they would win more fool them.
July 25, 2016
Out of touch screams out Janet.
July 25, 2016
That is a very reassuring snapshot. Just imagine the picture you would have had to paint if we’d been members of that awful EU!
July 25, 2016
What you say is true but the BBC has a different agenda…
July 25, 2016
I went there with my family a couple of years ago. We visited a fabulous restaurant , the new Tate and looked at all the sights. It wasn’t as busy as I expected , so rather than a down turn in fortunes things must be looking up.
July 25, 2016
Surely more than a couple of years ago. You can barely move in London these days, day or night.
July 25, 2016
Time flies….. 4 yrs ago.
July 25, 2016
What kind of people (well we know what kind) would be hoping to see their own country go down just because they lost,it say’s it all .
July 25, 2016
Eleanor Justice. What kind of people (well we know what kind) would be hoping to see their own country go down just because they lost,it say’s it all .
Answer. Those to whom money is their God
July 25, 2016
I see that the pound is down again. Good for exports but not so good for us at home buying from abroad. Still, this is no different to other times when the pound has fluctuated – it is just being brought to our attention more by the BBC and the likes.
I see no worries amongs the people I know unless they are the sort that continually look at their money and what it is worth. Those that are obsessed with how much their money is worth. Again, rates can go up or down and who knows what will happen in the future. Other than this, people are just carrying on as normal. I am shopping like I always did, driving around the same and going on holiday later in the year to the Canaries. Yes, I may get less for my money, who knows what will happen by November, but I am still glad we are coming out of the EU and things can only improve if we work at it. Agree John, there is no need for all the doom and gloom.
July 25, 2016
London sounds ghastly.
July 25, 2016
It is ghastly 🙂
July 25, 2016
If you hate crowds of people, pushing and shoving, it is ghastly. I live in West London and this year have spent time visiting parts of the UK we have not been to before. It is so lovely and civilized to be able to travel on public transport and walk around towns and cities without shoulder to shoulder people. People are far pleasanter and chat because they are not irritable with the sheer hard work of it all.
July 25, 2016
No it’s a great place. Better than ever. But there is more to the UK than London.
It is a pity that many politicians, including I suspect, our host on this website seem to be more in favour of an English Nationalism than a wider British or even a UK identity.
Londonderry, or Derry ( I really don’t mind which), is just as much a part of the Union as London. That’s a great place too! However, there are a lot of real resources which are going to waste there right now and that is a pity.
July 25, 2016
On a slightly different topic. I see in the newspapers that it is being reported that Boris is thinking of settling for a 7 year break in immigration so that we can have access to the single market and partial membership which would mean giving a considerable sum to the EU without getting any say in future developments. As far as I can see this is a Norway option and this is something we were told would not be on the cards. Once again it’s a case of politicians saying what they want us to hear and then doing something completely different. When I look a the comments left after reading these articles everyone is really angry. Just what the hell are they playing at? I note that you have publically stated you are against this kind of deal John and I hope that you and others can apply enough pressure for this deal not to go through. I despair. With what is going on in Germany now, we do not want immigration at all unless vetted and invited into our country first. Anyway, our children will still have all the problems mass immigration can bring in 7 years time. NOT ON!!
July 25, 2016
It’s the EEA” Lichtenstein”option
July 25, 2016
The tube is definitely overloaded
July 25, 2016
Never mind what the BBC, Remain and all those other lost souls are saying – they are simply a diversion to knock us off course. We know that we are in a prime position to move forward and Exit the Single Market successfully.. We NEED to concentrate on May to ensure that she progresses our exit in taking back our Sovereignty and we need to keep the pressure on her to fulfill that. Fortunately we have Fox & Davis (both vehemently passionate about our Sovereignty) in position to bring about our Trade Agreements with the rest of the world and negotiation with the EU respectively and we need to support them. May stears the ship of State and we cannot allow her to change course by concluding: ” if in danger or in doubt starboard the helm and go about”
July 25, 2016
OT. Access to the single matket with an emergency break on migration?
NO NO NO NO NO.
We voted to leave largely because of immigration and border control. Time for the old and bold backbench brexiteers to get a grip. As the Chancellor said, time to get a move on. Stop stalling. Leave means Leave.
July 25, 2016
Excuse my spelling!
July 25, 2016
Off Topic:
The British would not see it even if there were a recession.
Axings, Machetings, truck-runoverings, backpack suicide bombings almost daily in Germany and France. Kalashnivovings in Tunisia, aeroplane bombings in Egypt. Airport bombings in Brussels. What do the British do?They complain to the Foreign Office their nice holiday has been ruined by its ban on flights to Tunis. Complain in TV interviews their planes are delayed to a specific Egyptian tourist resort. Oh and complete with wife, dog, kids, hidden girlfriend in the boot, sit in their cars in a ten mile queue heading for each and every disaster zone. AND complain about the delay.
You couldn’t make the British up.
July 25, 2016
Christopher Houston. You have just made me laugh. Irony doesn’t even come into it. How stupid can people get?
July 25, 2016
“I see no recession”. Neither do many of us but the Remain campaign having filled our heads with the disaster that would befall us should we vote to depart the suffocating EU must surely have to follow through with every scrap of bad economic news they can find and they are certainly doing it with our falling pound.
We were advised prior to the Referendum vote a recession was most probable later this year and should it come about you can be sure it will be levelled at Brexit regardless of any facts to bear this out. Although not exactly surprising our public broadcaster seems to take a perverse delight in talking our economy down with doom and gloom accounts of the falling pound. What a very weird world we live in.
July 25, 2016
Let us accept our own propaganda in the Leave campaign: “Nothing is going to happen for at least two years. ”
However, a bit of recession, perhaps much recession will, counter-intuitively, do the nation good.
Any excuse will do to stop Local Authorities and Housing Associations from wasting magnificent sums of money, still.
Any excuse will do to stop all the extra road-building, rail infrastructure building.
Any excuse will do to stop massive and increasing job opportunities for potential migrants.
A recession is what occurs when a national government has not got its intelligent head screwed on.It is, actually, an economic and political safety-valve of sorts, to stop government insanity. Well overdue.
July 25, 2016
I have never seen so many bad loses in all my days at the top, i fine every few people moaning about it in my area and just want to get on with it even if they vote for in, they are just going about their daily business, it only politician and media with institution that are doing the moaning.
I think the government should make clear statement of intent about what they are going to do and stop messing about.
People are upset at the top because they will have to start doing some work.
As for the economy like i have said before you have best years in front of you not behind, all you have to do is get right people into parliament which are independent MPs with a business background and throw out the lawyers and others who are holding you back.
You need new politician in parliament and a thinning out of institution.
If you do the right thing at the next election you will be reward but if you keep following media about parties nothing much will change.
There will be lot of new candidates for MPs at the next election, it up to you to pick the right ones and follow through on your out vote on the eu for independence.
The next election might be as soon as next october.2017.
July 25, 2016
Too right Ian. There is too much pussy footing around and not enough action from sensible politicians.
July 25, 2016
John
This morning the CBI have reported a fall in confidence among manufacturers. Their findings chime pretty closely with those from last week’s PMI survey. A pattern is beginning to emerge. A slowdown is happening. We can only hope it’s shallow and short term else there is going to be enormous pressure to reconsider the referendum vote – from a significant number of those who voted to leave.
Reply These so far are opinion surveys. Lets see what the turnover and output figures are like for the period June to October before rushing to false conclusions.
July 25, 2016
John F. Oh dear. Let’s not get carried away.
July 25, 2016
Not my experience
July 26, 2016
Not my experience
It’s not my experience either but it’s clearly the experience of a number of businesses up and down the country. It’s that experience that will eventually feed into economic data and result in job losses.
In 2009 there were plenty of people prepared to say they’d seen no evidence of an economic crash.
July 26, 2016
A slowdown has been happening for several years now.
July 26, 2016
There has indeed been a gradual slowdown but nothing which suggested a recession. The latest findings suggest a deep plunge – and a sharp recession.
Reply No they do not. The CBI trends survey says output and exports up Q3 as they were Q2. Do try reading these surveys before pontificating on them.
July 26, 2016
I think the fall in the pound’s value may well stave off recession for a time. It should provide a much needed stimulus to home demand.
However, fundamentally, the problem of a debt overhang remains. It’s not public debt that is the problem. It’s private debt thanks to years of misguided acceptance of what is known as “New Keynesianism”. NK should read as Not Keynesianism! IMO.
The idea is that when the economy needs a stimulus, the sensible course of action by our supposedly independent central bank, the BoE, is to reduce interest rates to encourage more private lending. This works for a time but then the economy needs another stimulus to compensate for deflationary effect of excessive levels of private debt in the economy. The end result is sky high property prices, interest rates which are close to zero, with even the prospect of their turning negative, and still a sluggish economy.
So something will have to give sooner or later. I don’t believe negative interest rates, which may involve the removal of paper money from circulation, will be a generally accepted option. We either will have to return to real Keynesianism or face the mother of all recessions, or even depressions, in the not too distant future.
Much will depend on what happens in the USA after their Presidential elections. The USA is keeping the world economy afloat with little or no help from anyone else at the present time.
July 25, 2016
Let’s face it, the Remainer’s are praying for crop failure. We even see our new number 11 in panic mode, hoping we can be saved by China and India, as if that’s going to work given the glaring trade inequalities brought about by wage and currency differentials? The Remainer’s only strategy now is to pray for Economic Brexageddon and then hope it will give them an excuse to anchor us to the EU indefinitely with slo-mo going nowhere withdrawal. Rather like Hotel California, we can check out any time we like, but we can never leave. So hope the Remainer’s, as they plan to drag this affair out. Can we trust the govt to deliver? We must keep the pressure on and stop these doom and gloom merchants from talking our economy down. Crop Failure isn’t going to happen.
July 25, 2016
off Topic: Sarah Champion MP in deed ( Rotherham )
News is that Ms Champion has UNresigned from Mr Corbyn’s front bench and has got her job back as Shadow Home Office Minister, focusing on women, equality and domestic violence.” Better that “men” would be included in that description. Notwithstanding that, and notwithstanding that Ms Champion may ….be utterly, insincere; for, no-one can see into the heart of a another person MP or not, on the surface at the very least she in her role has done the right thing. I have seen her on regional TV in the last couple of weeks and she backed off in the two-way war between the Corbynistas and the 172 Labour Party careerist/dissidents saying she wished nothing to do with it as it had “gone too far”
Rotherham, most assuredly, is in need now, of such an MPs role as that of Ms Champion. She is doing her duty.
July 25, 2016
It’s unlikely that there’s going to be a recession due to the Brexit vote, but we are and have been headed to either a recession or a noticeable slowdown since Q1 2015.
The oil price collapse in Q2 2014 was, despite the mainstream view, a net negative. The subsequent collapse in oil-related capex has held back private credit growth to some extent and this, combined with the previous Chancellor’s austerity, has held the UK economy back.
Thankfully, most of the tax credit cuts were defeated and the personal allowance has been raised enough to keep the government deficit large enough for mild GDP growth. However, we need a lot more tax cuts and government spending increases to remove fiscal drag and start achieving double-digit growth rates like the Chinese did when they were going all-out with state bank lending to maintain demand.
The BoE cutting interest rates to 0 or 0.25% and engaging in more QE will not and can not cause more spending in the economy. Monetary policy works the opposite to what the mainstream thinks. This is why we need a fiscal adjustment now, as we always have.
July 25, 2016
But I should add that it is still a good idea to cut the Bank rate to 0% permanently, and engage in more QE, but for completely different reasons.
The natural rate of interest is zero, if governments (central banks) didn’t interfere in the interest rate market, then the base risk-free interest rate would be zero. Only if the government intervenes can it be any higher.
And Quantitative Easing is just an asset swap whereby private sector assets that pay higher interest rates (govt bonds) are replaced by reserves which pay 0.5% IoR. How anybody expects QE to be inflationary rather than deflationary is beyond me….
July 25, 2016
Is there anyone out there who is as fed up as I am hearing Nicola Sturgeon’s voice moaning and going on for the sake of it??
July 25, 2016
Yes, we are, and we wish she would just get back to administering Scottish affairs.
As our last PM used to say in exasperation, they have been given the devolved powers so why don’t they use them?
July 25, 2016
I can tell you that following indicator of the country health is a waste of time, mostly fill in by big business and government and are easy to manipulate to tell the story they want.
Take no notice, carry on, take the bull by the horns and give them all a good kicking at the next election, like you did with the EU out vote.
July 25, 2016
I saw signs of recession well before Brexit – shops and restaurants shutting, squatters moving in, and no-one, not even the Chinese, buying our recycling. Manufacturing it seems is down. Something cold has been blowing out of China since before Christmas. Nigel Farage (he of the permanently sunny nature) also spoke of recession a month or so ago. If it is, it will be blamed on Brexit, even though it was well in train before and part of the natural cycle. Is our gloomy, scolding Chancellor aware of this and instead of talking things up just preparing the ground so he too can blame Brexit?
July 25, 2016
This stitch up for that is what it is would appear to be is well and properly underway. The remainers in post are not fit for office and should be cast aside. Bo Jo is just a liability and so much for his “full control” comments in endless debate. No wonder he was shafted by Gove . Totally ******* useless.
There are far better leavers that could take any number of offices within the cabinet that could actually make things happen.
These remainers have no intention or bottle to fight for the better good of this country.
They need to wake up and smell the coffee. The EU daily is slowly but surely falling apart with attacks on German and French streets and Greece, Italy, France slowly descending into a full blown debt crisis that will bring the whole Union down. Why join a sinking ship?
Empress Nick is going on as usual about Scotland’s future in Europe by the time they find the £13bn joining fee and get the joining conditions right, as long as the Spanish don’t shaft them the EU will be a distant memory of what was. Come next years elections over there it could be the final whistle. Not before time. If the leaders over there had any bottle they would go to their countries now and put their people out of their misery. Whether in the UK or EU the days of same old, same old politics is over and if the UK government do not make it happen then UKIP will destroy the opposition in swathes all over the country and the same will happen across the EU.
Sadly the best leader candidate will not even be considered by the Party as she is still banned from applying for office.
July 25, 2016
Why has Terresa May gone to Scotland. N.I. and Wales to assure them that their wishes about Brexit will be taken into consideration? Again England has been denied recognition because she certainly has not spoken to us. Come on John, as the voice of England I would expect you to point out that we are 85% of the country and do need some respect.
July 25, 2016
An article in the Independent today written by two people (Academics I believe) appear to suggest (if I understand it correctly) that we (UK) have ‘bounced’ ourselves out of the international “Top Table” by electing to take ourselves out of the EU. Whilst I think (?) they say that we will get our Sovereignty back if we continue on the course that we are heading however it will be at great cost to us. First we will lose our ‘Special Relationship’ status with the USA as out of EU we will no longer be able to influence the EU in the way that USA wants and relies on us to influence the EU. Already the two ‘experts’ say that the USA has started the process of withdrawing from us in favour of Germany. Everybody knows and it has been said many many times here and everywhere else that actually this ‘Special Relationship’ is a myth; a wordplay; a nonsense – nobody believes it and never have- not our Government- nor the American Administration. They use us we use them and that’s politics. The ‘experts’ seem to suggest that it would be better for us to forego our Sovereignty in favour of sticking with the EU where we can be in a much more powerful position politically globally and therefore make a difference internationally. If that is true roll the clock back a couple of years and ask oneself why the EU allowed Putin to roll through Crimea and effectively partition Ukraine without a murmur until it was too late. The UK was VOCAL but we went unheard or rather were ignored so if we cannot influence major decisions within the EU whilst we are still members what difference would it make politically if we were out of it? A huge an important difference – we reclaim our Sovereignty, take back control of our borders and our Judiciary – free from the dictates of an ‘experiment in failure’. I dont like the man BUT what did Gove say about ‘experts’?
July 25, 2016
Very worrying the way this Home Secretary is already making the last one look positively benign.
First the promise to rake up Orgreave, and now the witch hunt against adults and children alike in the name of anti hate crime. Crime is crime, whoever it is committed by, or against, and all should be equal before the law. This ramping up of the persecution of one section of the population is really dangerous. Eventually there is going to be a reaction against the double standards. I could give examples of the injustices but that would risk investigation.
Hasn’t she noticed there are serious matters for a Home Secretary to be attending to?
July 26, 2016
Quite so. Can’t you just smell the inflation in the air? People who think that inflation has been tamed (a) haven’t been looking at the rise in house prices since 2012 and (b) haven’t considered what will happen when fuel prices rise.