Brexit recession postponed – UK retail sales boom

In July UK retail sales rose by 5.9% on a year earlier, and were 1.4% up on June. If Brexit was going to have an impact on consumer confidence it would have been in the five weeks immediately following the vote, when a proportion of Remain voters were very unhappy and shocked by the result. Instead people have gone out and bought more  clothes, DIY and household goods. Many have also  been to spend more in hotels, restaurants and bars. These are all the kinds of purchases you make when you are  not unduly worried about your future financial position, as they are discretionary. It’s not all tourists, as it takes time for people to book and come after a fall in the currency.

Employment hit record levels by the end of June. The uncertainties of the campaign and the vote did not interrupt new hirings. The UK economy added 172,000 additional jobs in the second quarter of the year. Employment hit a new all time high at 74.5% of the working age population.  In July, after the vote, the claimant count fell again, showing that job creation continued. Unemployment fell by 8,600 in the first full post vote month.

Recent results from companies bear out this generally positive picture. Lookers reported good continuing sales of cars. Housebuilders report decent levels of interest in new properties. Kingfisher’s trading results for the 13 weeks to end July, including five weeks post vote, saw sales growth of 7.2% on a like for like basis (UK and Ireland) in stark contrast to its large French business where sales were down 3.2% over the same time period.

Some people remind us that construction figures have been weak in the first half of the year. This is true. However, when you look at the make up of the figures you see that private sector housebuilding showed good growth, and private sector commercial a little growth. There was a steep fall in public sector housebuilding and a fall in general public sector work. So was the wider public sector trying to make a point by holding back work? Or did the Treasury hold back money, inducing bad news?  It is certainly wrong to deduce from the overall decline that it was a drop off in private sector confidence owing to Brexit.

I wonder for how long will the Remain commentators carry on ascribing whatever happens in the economy to Brexit? There are many more influences on the UK economy than this vote. I do not for one moment ascribe the big increase in retail sales to the vote. As they made so much fuss about how there would be an immediate and dramatic loss of confidence causing a short term recession, it seems entirely fair to scrutinise the short term post Brexit figures. So far they show  we who ridiculed the official forecasts of a recession and house price collapse on a Leave vote have had the  best of the argument.

84 Comments

  1. APL
    August 19, 2016

    JR: “Brexit recession postponed ..”

    Er! We haven’t left yet.

    1. Lifelogic
      August 19, 2016

      Will we ever escape under remainer Theresa May? The more nonsense that this new government comes out this the more I wonder if she is up to the task. Especially given the level of opposition in the state sector, the establishment, universities, the BBC and all the dire “luvvies”.

      An article in the Spectator seems to think a pole suggested that 96% of luvvies we in favour of “remain”. Perhaps the best thing this government could do is stop nearly all government subsidies for greencrap, farming, dubious “charities”, the BBC and especially the state subsidised “arts”. Then the BBC and the “arts” sector might get back to keeping paying customers happy for a change as most other businesses do.

      Smaller than expected government surplus today. Taxes up, but government waste still out of control and off target as usual.

      1. Lifelogic
        August 19, 2016

        poll!

      2. Ed Mahony
        August 19, 2016

        ‘An article in the Spectator seems to think a pole suggested that 96% of luvvies we in favour of “remain”
        – Can I suggest you read the Financial Times instead.

        1. Lifelogic
          August 20, 2016

          I do and it (like the economist) was dreadfully pro-remain. Whereas I got it right and won quite a sum on my Brexit bet (and other financial positions).

          Also judging from the lefty luvvie types I know 96% rings about right.

    2. Stephen Henry
      August 19, 2016

      What part of the word postponed do you not understand APL?
      I suggest you start thinking positive with the outcome rather than negatively.The figures are first class.

    3. JohnF
      August 19, 2016

      Oh give it a rest.

      There was strong agreement among the “experts” that survey data from July was indicating a sharp slowdown. The BoE didn’t cut interest rates on a whim. There were predictions of a GDP contraction of anything between 0.2% and 0.4% by various think tanks.

      Growth over the next few quarters is still likely to be sluggish but it won’t be as bad as looked possible a month or so back.

      Reply I and others forecast there would be no recession or collapse in retail sales – why believe the ones who are usually wrong!

      1. APL
        August 20, 2016

        JohnF: “There was strong agreement among the “experts” ..”

        That’s your first mistake. If folk have had the opportunity to learn something over the last thirty years, it’s that the experts opinion isn’t worth the fetid air they use to expound it.

        Blair used experts to justify the destruction of the Hussein regime.

        Clinton employed experts to justify destroying one of the most stable prosperous regimes in the Maghreb, all the while David Cameron yapping at her heels.

        Cameron employed experts to justify his desire to destroy Assad, a plan which was fortunately frustrated when ordinary sensible people put a stop to it.

        Experts are trying to justify the HS2.

        Experts claim that if we wish our daughters to be unmolested by ISIS fifth columnists, we shouldn’t stop them entering our country, we should instead lock up our daughters in their for their own safety in their own country.

        Finally, experts were almost all opposed to BREXIT.

        Frankly, you can stuff the establishment expert opinion right where the sun don’t shine.

        We haven’t left the EU, we haven’t even started to leave the EU, so Redwood prattling on about how things are just the same after BREXIT, is him blowing smoke.

      2. JohnF
        August 22, 2016

        Reply I and others forecast there would be no recession or collapse in retail sales – why believe the ones who are usually wrong!

        Not sure what happened there. My comment was intended to be a response to a different post. I was actually acknowledging that the more alarmist predictions were wide of the mark.

    4. NickC
      August 19, 2016

      APL, some of the Remains doom claims were consequent on the vote itself, not upon actually leaving, for example Osborne’s “emergency” austerity budget of £30 billion of cuts.

      1. APL
        August 20, 2016

        NickC: “for example Osborne’s “emergency” austerity budget of £30 billion of cuts.”

        Stop Press: Professional politician exposed as liar.

        Other news: Pope suspected of Catholicism.

        One consequence of an actual BREXIT is that we should dismantle the 20th century consensus that politicians ought to be paid.

  2. Lifelogic
    August 19, 2016

    You ask:- “I wonder for how long will the Remain commentators carry on ascribing whatever happens in the economy to Brexit.”

    So do I. They remainers still want to believe they were right all along. The BBC has not changed its line at all really, still wrong on everything from the EU, ever larger government, magic money tree economics, ever higher taxes, ever more regulation, how the old have stolen the youth’s future, climate alarmism, renewable guff ……. doom and gloom is everywhere from them.

    The only things I find depressing is how wrong headed these people can be and the lack of progress from remainer T May & Hammond. Happily walking round Switzerland with her sticks but doing nothing. The signs are not good. The worlds largest (white elephant) wind farm still going ahead with huge subsidy, drivel about workers and customers on boards, no cancellation of HS2, no sensible BBC, no bonfire of red tape, the bonkers sugar tax remains or Hinckley C yet, no new runways, not even a real sense of direction.

    Just the Cameron/Osborne high tax borrow and waste, remain agenda in kitten heels so far.

    1. Lifelogic
      August 19, 2016

      Excellent piece in the Spectator today. Why all this doom and gloom from everyone everywhere? Children today have been born at the best time ever in human history and by a very long way. Children born in wealthy, civilised places UK even more so. Yet all we get is endless winging from them, and indeed from the BBC about how hard it all is for the youth of today. How can they understand so little about even the recent past.

      http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/08/why-cant-we-see-that-were-living-in-a-golden-age/

  3. Adrian
    August 19, 2016

    Still too soon to tell and Brexit has not occurred yet or even come close to being planned. The shops had huge sales offers this summer, presumably shoppers were cautious in the referendum run up and needed tempting out. I’m also looking to move home and there is a very different atmosphere from agents than at the start of the year or last year. Homeowners are having to reduce prices

    1. NickC
      August 19, 2016

      Adrian, The proportion of our GDP that consists of exports to the EU amounts to about a tenth only. That is, the rest of the UK economy is nearly 9 times bigger. Really the EU is not that important to us in comparison. Yes 10% matters but the other 90% or so should not have been so wilfully ignored by Osborne, the BBC and other Remains.

      In the worst case there is no trade deal with the EU. Consequently the already agreed WTO MFN status would be used, both sides paying the same tariff levels. But we export about £70 billion less to the EU than the EU exports to us. Hence the UK government could make about £3 billion surplus even after refunding our exporters’ tariffs fully thereby allowing them to sell into the EU at the same prices as before leaving.

      Consequently there will be little change in only a small fraction of the UK economy after leaving, even in the worse case. The dire state of the eurozone is far more damaging to the UK than Brexit is.

      1. acorn
        August 20, 2016

        Refunding tariffs is against WTO rules on state aid. We don’t know if the government has applied to switch our WTO membership from the EU to a UK sovereign version.

        1. NickC
          August 20, 2016

          Acorn, It is not that simple. If there is no free trade deal, or other special relationship with the EU, or membership of the Single Market (EEA), then EU state aid rules would not apply to the UK. We would be bound only by the WTO Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures. This is a lot less onerous and prescriptive than the EU’s rules. That assumes we would join the WTO, a move that is widely accepted.

          At the moment of course the euro is kept artificially low to foster German mercantilism which is a far more significant subsidy than WTO MFN manufactureds’ tariffs. The UK has welcomed the drop in the pound after the Leave vote for exactly the same reasons. Subsidies come in all forms.

          1. acorn
            August 22, 2016

            NickC, I have been asking number cruncher mates, how the WTO got to the increased tariffs suggested in the following http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36470809 no answers yet.

            Yes, I know this is a BBC report, but the World Service Radio has all the BBC’s premier league correspondents.

    2. Ed Mahony
      August 19, 2016

      ‘Still too soon to tell and Brexit has not occurred yet or even come close to being planned’
      – well said. Well said. We’re yet to:
      1) Sign Article 50
      2) Finalise a trade agreement with the EU
      3) Finalise a trade agreement with the rest of the world.
      And it won’t be consumers then who decide how successful Brexit has been but the markets and investors
      Lastly, important as trade is, we also have to consider whether Brexit will increase our peace and security in Europe and whether it will drastically bring down immigration (which is why most people voted for Brexit).
      Until then, all talk about the short-term is hot air. And we need some long-term, detailed strategic plans – now – to begin to satisfy more, the markets and investors future intentions.

      1. libertarian
        August 20, 2016

        Dear Ed Mahony

        This is going to come as a shock to you

        BUT it IS consumers who will decide if Brexit is a win or lose. Most remainers dont understand this which is why they think everything has to be run by centralised top down politburos . Trade, business and the real everyday economy is entirely driven by buyers and sellers supply and demand.

        Remainers are also completely out of touch with the real everyday modern world. Far from bringing peace the EU is right at this moment embroiled in a major war. They have no idea how to deal with it .

        Which businesses are you thinking should be making long term strategic plans for everyone? I guess you’ve never been involved in business so you dont really understand but really let go of this soviet approach to everything. Its never worked and it never will work.

        1. Ed Mahony
          August 20, 2016

          I’m going to look into the points you make and judge then whether I disagree or not. So might speak to you in the future about it. Regards.

          1. libertarian
            August 21, 2016

            I won’t hold my breath

  4. Brexit Facts4EU.org
    August 19, 2016

    A nicely-balanced and well-written piece, thank you.

    There are now so many positive indicators since the Referendum vote that the pro-Remain harbingers of the apocalypse are starting to go a little quiet. Or ‘less strident’ might perhaps be a better description.

    It’s early days but at least we can say that the near-instant post-vote disasters predicted by Remain have failed to materialise, despite them talking down the economy at every possible opportunity.

    Yes, many challenges lie ahead and there’s much to do before we see the true windfalls from the Referendum result – most of which will take years to materialise. However it’s a steady start and all we need now is to see the Government enact the will of the people – something we know from various sources you are working to ensure.

    Finally, your readers may be interested to know that INSEE (the French version of the ONS) released its latest Q2 employment data yesterday. Unemployment at 9.7% (c.f UK’s at 4.9%), youth unemployment at 23.7% (UK: 13.7%), and long-term unemployment at 4.3% (UK: 1.4%). French Q2 GDP was stagnant at 0% growth.

    Regards, the Facts4EU.org Team
    http://facts4eu.org/news.shtml

  5. agricola
    August 19, 2016

    Do you not think we have had enough of the told you so pieces in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. Do not forget that Brexit has yet to happen.

    Now is the time to be reading inspiring thought on how the UK can be fashioned post Brexit when all the excuses for inaction have been swept away. What for instance will be our future attitude to political correctness, that great facilitator of unbelievable evil in our once proud country. Put another way, the excuse blanket for inaction where fifty years ago there would have been serious action. It is a disease that afflicts government, local government, our police force and numerous charitable functions.

    On the question of Remainers such as the BBC, do not expect them to walk willingly to the confessional until they are dealt with like the cancer they are. They will just re-group and continue to try to undermine society. Lets hear it for where we are heading, not where we have reluctantly been.

    1. Lindsay McDougall
      August 20, 2016

      I think that we are headed for severe inflation because of the BoE’s ultra-loose monetary policy. The stats indicate that the party is in full swing and it’s high time that someone took away the punchbowl.

      I’d love to ascribe our recent economic success to Brexit but we haven’t actually left yet.

      Our monetary policy is now looser than that of the US Fed and that of the ECB. Our QE/GDP ratio exceeds that of the US.

      Why is Carney still in post? Don’t Tory backbenchers have any influence with the PM and the Chancellor?

  6. Margaret
    August 19, 2016

    People cannot live their lives in fear of a recession. They can be sensible but in the main just carry on.

  7. Denis Cooper
    August 19, 2016

    Every piece of new economic data should be treated as the latest point on a chart running back several years and viewed in that perspective, because much of what is reported is no more than continuation of previous trends.

    No doubt there will be perturbations which can genuinely be attributed to the vote to leave the EU, even though we haven’t actually left – despite some of the headlines at the time – we are still a long way from actually leaving, and now according to Osborne’s former economic adviser Rupert Harrison “there are degrees of leaving” so it may not amount to much in practical terms if/when we formally leave.

    “Has Brexit positively impacted the economy?”(!) segment, here:

    http://www.channel4.com/news/catch-up/display/playlistref/170816

    I’m glad to see that the City seems to moving away from supporting the EEA model under which we would not regain control of our immigration policy and instead favouring what some call “the Swiss model” but others prefer to see as a bespoke arrangement:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5cebe746-655a-11e6-8310-ecf0bddad227.html#axzz4Hl1alsun

    “UK financial sector targets Swiss-style deal for EU market access”

    “High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5cebe746-655a-11e6-8310-ecf0bddad227.html#ixzz4Hl6Sx0Fy

    “The City of London has given up hope of universal access to the EU single market and is now seeking a bespoke deal for its different sectors to trade with Europe, with similar but stronger ties than Switzerland.”

    As David Davis said during one of the debates, to great applause, we don’t want the Swiss or Norwegian or Canadian or Albanian model, we want a British model and I can see no reason why we should not have that.

  8. Iain Moore
    August 19, 2016

    The Remainers, like the BBC, comment about these ‘unhelpful’ figures was interesting.

    Their argument now is to say the economic activity, like people continuing to shop, is the reason why we aren’t entering the recession they predicted. Bizarre isn’t the word for it, essentially they are saying their prediction for a recession was correct, and because of Brexit we are in recession, but we don’t see it due to the recession being obscured by people getting on with their normal economic lives, like shopping, buying houses, etc.

  9. Mark B
    August 19, 2016

    Good morning.

    There is an upside to the Remain scaremongering. It is helping to keep the pound low and, this will have an impact on both exports and imports. It will also help with tourism and may even reduce immigration as working in the UK becomes less attractive as those seeking to send money back home see their spending power reduce.

    Things will sort themselves themselves out in the end.

  10. Ian Wragg
    August 19, 2016

    Brexit will have no negative consequences for the vast majority of the population. Only those suckling on the teat of public subsidy will worry.
    Lecturers, scientists etc will drone on about their Brussels funding without acknowledging that it is UK taxpayers money originally.
    I see the go ahead has been given for another wind monstrosity off Grimsby at £140 per megawatt when the pool price is £38. Let’s hope there’s a 15 year high pressure over that part of the coast and Dong energy make a collossal loss.
    I thought you were stopping this nonesense.

  11. Bob
    August 19, 2016

    “I wonder for how long will the Remain commentators carry on ascribing whatever happens in the economy to Brexit?”

    The BBC will place the emphasis on whatever they can spin as negative Brexit news, they seem to be genetically incapable of admitting that there are positives. Mr Whittingdale missed a golden opportunity to deal with them properly, so now we are stuck with their pernicious influence for another ten years.

  12. JohnF
    August 19, 2016

    However, when you look at the make up of the figures you see that private sector housebuilding showed good growth, and private sector commercial a little growth. There was a steep fall in public sector housebuilding and a fall in general public sector work.

    John

    What is the source for your figures. I haven’t seen a breakdown and I find it interesting that you say private sector commercial had shown “a little growth”. This seems to be at odds with many opinions in the press.

    1. libertarian
      August 19, 2016

      John F

      I suggest you stop believing in “the press” and so called “experts’ and ask a house builder or two.

      I was having lunch with a CEO of a regional private construction company on the day the figures came out. He was nonplussed. He has a full order book and is struggling to recruit enough qualified tradespeople. Meanwhile one of the largest construction groups in my region suddenly and quite unexpectedly went into administration this week…. They cited cash flow issues and late payments….. Most of their contracts are public sector!!!

  13. Nig L
    August 19, 2016

    Old frauds like Cable, Heseltine, Clarke and Mandelson are still in denial about the negative effects of the Euro so what chance is there that the Remainers will change their minds after eight weeks? In fact one of the things that annoys the voter the most is that they never, or rarely, admit they were wrong, unless of course it is a shaft of light conversion to keep them elected and then they brazen it out. The one thing Politicians have not come to terms with is that the Internet never forgets, and therefore by definition, its users.

    As for the EC, what I continue to not understand is the hypnotic effect that it exercises over our Politicians, Diplomats, senior civil Servants etc. All power corrupts etc. Not only do they ‘run’ the UK but now they have input to 25 other countries, plus the world stage. Hubris, pure and simple.

  14. Brian Tomkinson
    August 19, 2016

    JR: “I wonder for how long will the Remain commentators carry on ascribing whatever happens in the economy to Brexit?”
    They only ascribe bad economic news to Brexit any good news is either ignored or the caveats are added that this is despite Brexit or because the process has not yet begun. The battle for independence may have been won but the result is not accepted by many particularly in parliament and the media.
    What is your view of the report headlined thus in the Independent: “The man who helped run Project Fear is now a key figure in Brexit negotiations”? It goes on : “The bizarre twist will see ex-Treasury Special Advisor James Chapman working as a top aide to the new Brexit Secretary David Davis…….. The job saw Mr Chapman helping the ex-Chancellor pull together his communication strategy for the EU referendum campaign, something later branded “project fear” by critics in the Leave camp.”

    1. Timaction
      August 19, 2016

      Indeed. Legacy parties have to be watched like hawks. Why is Carney still in charge of the Bank of England? Totally wrong as always on his forecasting re EU. Self interest once again put before our National interest. The great and the good think they have been touched by God, the rest of us unfortunates just have to pay for them!
      Under investigation Legarde still in charge of the IMF, when is she going as well?

  15. Antisthenes
    August 19, 2016

    Despite my previous doubts about the the abilities of the general public they appear to be more savvy than the so called experts and pundits. They were not gullible and fall for the scaremongering of the remainers aided and abetted by the international establishments as millions voted to leave. They did not panic and just carried on as usual because they knew that all the talk of gloom and doom had no substance. Simply because they recognised the fact nothing will change until we actually exit the EU. They exhibited common sense were as the establishment did the opposite. They will of course react when they know the terms of Brexit. So they have to live up to expectations so any watering down or EU light will not be well received.

  16. Denis Cooper
    August 19, 2016

    Off-topic, what our Prime Minister said on November 10th 2015:

    https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/events/special/20151110DavidCameron%20%28NEW%29.pdf

    “You will have to judge what is best for you and your family, for your children and grandchildren, for our country, for our future. It will be your decision whether to remain in the EU on the basis of the reforms we secure, or whether we leave. Your decision. Nobody else’s. Not politicians’. Not parliament’s. Not lobby groups’. Not mine. Just you. You, the British people, will decide. At that moment, you will hold this country’s destiny
    in your hands.

    This is a huge decision for our country, perhaps the biggest we will make in our lifetimes.
    And it will be the final decision. So to those who suggest that a decision in the referendum to leave would merely produce another stronger renegotiation and then a second referendum in which Britain would stay I say think again. The renegotiation is happening right now. And the referendum that follows will be a once in a generation choice. An in or out referendum. When the British people speak, their voice will be respected – not ignored. If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another renegotiation and another referendum.”

    And in February 2016:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/504216/The_process_for_withdrawing_from_the_EU_print_ready.pdf

    “The result of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union will be final. The Government would have a democratic duty to give effect to the electorate’s decision. The Prime Minister made clear to the House of Commons that “if the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger Article 50 of the Treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away”.”

    And in the official leaflet sent to every elector before the referendum:

    “This is your decision. The Government will implement what you decide.”

    But what a diehard Remainder is saying now:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bc816fae-5999-11e6-9f70-badea1b336d4.html#axzz4Hl1alsun

    “But the referendum was held, so the question is what to do now. Certainly a majority of just four percentage points in a non-binding referendum should not be considered a mandate to hastily invoke Article 50. The vote was more like a straw poll of voter sentiments about a range of issues than a considered evaluation of the costs and benefits of membership of the single market.

    Since voters were given a choice that was impossible to evaluate sensibly, they should be given the opportunity to change their mind if the facts change — either via a vote of parliament or a second referendum. In short, Brexit should not mean (an immediate) Brexit.”

  17. oldtimer
    August 19, 2016

    As I recall some commentators, such as Daniel Hannen, said that nothing would change immediately post a Brexit vote as all would depend on the ensuing negotiation of the terms between the UK and the rest of the EU. Meantime I note that some who forecast significant downsizing of their London operations, such as J P Morgan, are now adopting a wait and see position. This seems a more sensible and practical approach. I think we will need to see what happens over the next two to five years to get a better view of the impact. The negotiated settlement will matter as will the tax and regulatory policies of the new May government and its ability to forge and implement international trade policies and agreements. If it all works out then she will be able to go into a 2020 general election with confidence.

    1. Anonymous
      August 19, 2016

      As regards London’s position in the banking world – it is seen as the most trustworthy centre for trade. Wrongly in my view, but there you have it. We should play on it.

    2. libertarian
      August 20, 2016

      The City banks posted just shy of 8,000 new job vacancies in July , not one bank has shifted or currently plan to shift their operations away from UK.

  18. John B
    August 19, 2016

    All knowledge, as Hayek said, is local. The ‘fatal conceit’ of politicians, economists and assorted experts in future-gazing, is to believe they have enough knowledge to predict outcomes and then plan and control their way to them.

    Humans operate in their self-interest, they are not some big mechanism that can be tuned or have an imaginary spanner thrown in it.

    The paradox is that the more often ‘experts’ in a range of areas get things wrong to a wide degree, the more politicians trust them and act on their prognostications.

    We seemed to have reverted to the days of shaman, medicine men, high priests of the auguries when rulers needed someone to read the signs to guide their actions.

    Why? Maybe one you can answer Mr Redwood, being a politician.

  19. Mark Watson
    August 19, 2016

    Yes I had to laugh when I saw those figures..murmurings as to whether the BofE acted too soon starting to appear .Did you see Julie Samuel have a swipe at you John in the Telegraph a couple of days ago? The Remain tactic now seems to be to try to demonstrate that is too complicated to leave the EU so we should have another vote (tactic also used by FT today)

    1. ian wragg
      August 19, 2016

      Not half as complicated as if we had left the vote for a couple more years.
      The clowns would have had us signed up to an EU army, joining the Euro and accepting millions more economic migrants.
      There is a lot too be done but I believe we’re getting out in the nick of time.
      I see many pundits are portraying the Italian referendum as being a bigger game changer that Brexit.
      maybe the whole shooting match will be gone in the next few years.

      1. Timaction
        August 19, 2016

        …………….maybe the whole shooting match will be gone in the next few years.”

        I so hope so. I read today the majority of the French are in favour of leaving the EU and about half the Italians. The politicos in Europe so out of touch with their peoples!

    2. Denis Cooper
      August 19, 2016

      I couldn’t be bothered to read that article, but now that I have I see the nonsense about our host and I also see this other nonsense:

      “Once Article 50 is triggered, Britain has no legal right to extend negotiations beyond the two-year minimum. Leaving with no new legal framework or trading deal in place is highly risky for our economy because the EU is thoroughly built into British law.”

      I wonder if it will ever occur to these pessimists that anything which is risky for our economy would also be risky for their economies, and preventing it would be in their interest as well as ours? The idea that if there was no agreement as we came up to this supposed two year “deadline” the other countries would just calmly wait and watch as time runs out, and negotiations stop and the present arrangements terminate with no new arrangements ready to take their place, completely ignores the economic damage they would suffer along with us.

      When the Treasury Select Committee took evidence two expert witnesses both said that the two year period mentioned in Article 50 should be seen more as a target or a guideline that a hard and fast deadline to complete negotiations, and in their expert trade negotiations will continue while the parties still have an interest in reaching a successful conclusion.

  20. Iain Gill
    August 19, 2016

    I wouldn’t go overboard on this good news stuff. Where I sit immigration is still out of control. Brits are still being laid off to be replaced by (mainly and purely as a matter of fact) (foreign nationals ed). And massive projects are being transferred to (overseas ed) together with a lot of prime British intellectual property. Lots of people taking early retirement who would prefer to work if their job had not been offshored. Lots of people going back to college who would prefer to work if their job had not been offshored. And so very much more.

    1. libertarian
      August 19, 2016

      Iain Gill

      So where is this dreadful region that is going against all the other regions in England?

  21. Wingsovertheworld
    August 19, 2016

    Nature abhors a vacuum. In this case the vacuum is caused by silence from the Department for Exiting the EU and the Department for International Trade. Rumours abound where there is no story in order to make it seem like something – anything – is happening. We also know bad news travels faster than good, so why should it be any surprise that in the absence of any news, speculation from the disaster-mongers will be negative?

    Allister Heath writes in The Telegraph today about the failure of economists over Brexit – but what are they to do? As much as the Pythiae of Economics love to tell us what the worst possible outcome could be, I am sure the Economists for Brexit Group can come up with as many positive stories, but unfortunately these won’t sell copy in this deeply cynical (and rightly so) world. As was said during the campaign, we have taken a leap into the dark; it is only natural for those inclined for flight (many of whom work in the media) to fill it with boogymen who may or may not be lurking there.

    Brexiteers took a vote on faith; faith the world wouldn’t end, and Armageddon wouldn’t rain down. We also had faith that this country could reach out and prosper better than it would within the confines of the protectionist customs union of the EU. So far, our faith has been upheld on only half of this – the world hasn’t ended. We are waiting in earnest to see what will happen on the latter half.

    Dr. Fox has a remarkable challenge ahead of him. The outcome of his department, above any others, will be the metric whereby Brexit will be deemed a failure or success.

    On a side, I wonder if the Dept. for International Trade tipped the edge of an ace card just at the time Article 50 is triggered, say a positive motion for a deal with the US, it wouldn’t just focus the minds of our EU friends just a little bit keener? Perhaps the new incumbent of 1600 Pensylvania Avenue would help out a special friend on this, requiring the efforts of one FCO to put the wheels in motion. If I were a political advisor, I am sure a tactic such as that would help out with our negotiations, as cheeky as it is. The Brexit departments have a synergy when used together – my hope is that their department heads realise this, too.

  22. Peter Parsons
    August 19, 2016

    “It’s not all tourists, as it takes time for people to book and come after a fall in the currency.”

    Not if people buy over the internet, they don’t. After all, the UK is currently still inside the EU single market with all that brings in terms of zero import duty and consumer protection across the EU single market as a whole, something that may not be the case in the future (as we currently have no idea what the post-Brexit situation will be on this).

    Worth listening to the interview on Sky’s Ian King Live program yesterday (18th) with the representative of Boodles who stated that their increase in sales was basically attributable to American and European tourists taking advantage of the exchange rate to buy luxury goods. It may well be that UK purchasers are also bringing forward purchases before the exchange rate changes flow through to higher wholesale import prices (which would then give rise to higher retail prices).

    1. Denis Cooper
      August 19, 2016

      I went to London today and it seemed to me there were loads of Chinese. It was the same when we went to Windsor Castle last week, there seemed to be more Chinese then any other nationality. I suppose these are the more prosperous upper class or maybe just upper middle class Chinese who can now afford to travel abroad. In the past it was the Japanese who reached that stage, now it’s the Chinese.

  23. Bert Young
    August 19, 2016

    Even the BBC seem to have dropped its “Brexit ” news column ; I wonder if they have now given up on their scaremongering ?. There is nothing now that I can foresee likely to prove that Brexit was the wrong choice ; I don’t think it is likely that David Davis and his team will make a mess of the negotiations ahead ; he has his feet on the ground and a reputation at stake . The Germans have also recently released a statement saying that the British case is exceptional and should not be influenced by previous deals made with Norway and Switzerland – Germany has too much to lose and has always been the most influential voice in the EU . ( PvL – I hope you are still observing and agree ).

    Overall Brussels bureaucracy and the EU chase to create a fiscally unified Europe were the roots of our decision to leave ; if it had remained with a straightforward “Common Market” objective , I believe we would still be directly linked . National identity is a deeply entrenched aspect in all the countries of Europe and any efforts to replace this by a centralised control is a mistake . The ideology of “free movement of people” has to looked at against a population density background ; all EU countries are not the same and cannot possibly absorb numbers willy-nilly . Certainly my Brexit vote was heavily influenced by this factor .

    1. Anonymous
      August 19, 2016

      I have noticed that the BBC have dropped the Brexit theme too.

  24. Norman
    August 19, 2016

    Off topic, but very important, if I may (and in haste). I have just spoken to a young Romanian man, selling ‘The Big Issue’. I know quite a bit about the country from its days under Communism, and its post 1930s privations. I also visited in the last days of Ceauscescu as a government official – to see things first hand was so striking. We all need to be aware that many East Europeans have suffered much, and feel let down by some Brexit sentiments. I do my best to reassure them that its about regaining our sovereignty, not about rejecting our many friends in Europe. Please remember to show love to these folk. I even met one who said some are now thinking they were better off under the old regime. We must fully engage with these poorer nations of Europe, from the position our new found freedom from the EU. Hope everyone agrees!

    1. Denis Cooper
      August 19, 2016

      I don’t love them enough to hand over my country to them.

    2. Anonymous
      August 19, 2016

      The importation of Big Issue sellers is one of the main reasons why I voted Brexit.

      If there is anything which shows the ridiculousness of the situation it is this. Utterly UTTERLY insane !

  25. CHRISTOPHER HOUSTON
    August 19, 2016

    The majority voted to Leave. Leave won. The majority are now more confident in buying. The Losers like (named group ed) are comfort-eating/buying.
    The BoE does not understand basic psychology.

  26. Adam
    August 19, 2016

    I love the new argument. Brexit hasnt happened yet so all our predictions are on hold. Wernt saying that the day after were you.

    Lets take religion out of broadcasting. Lets make a concious effort to either ban religion or have all religion clearly marked as religion and lets go back to broadcasting truth and fact. If we take this one simple step the society can have a revolution akin to the renaissance.

    1. Timaction
      August 19, 2016

      I’m afraid the majority of media outlets now in this Country are just propaganda or opinions of those ruling elite, the legacy parties, newscasters or reporters. So obvious before the last general election against UKIP and against leavers in the EU referendum. They have reduced us to a banana republic and a few more should get their marching orders to follow Cameron and Osborne out of the door! I no longer watch the BBC or Sky as their bias is extreme.

  27. getahead
    August 19, 2016

    But for God’s sake John, make it happen.

  28. Edward.
    August 19, 2016

    Britain, is a trading nation, it ‘trade’ is what we do and as has been said before, the Brexit plebiscite ceaselessly exercised and greatly troubled the economists and the Tory Grandees/remainiacs far more than it did those who counselled that, OUT was rightly and logically and morally, the only direction in which Britain should choose to travel.

    Economists’ predictive capacity, as opposed to business and trade, oh and guess what, the economists and [wot?] again, got their forecasts wildly OUT…….

    Too early?

    At odds with the data? A little odd was it not, that, the BoE panicked and did what it thought was best for in order of rank; the corporate and banking blob, the EU and world economies and before it had even considered just what was best for Britain, as per! Thus, how could it not be so, when, a Goldman Sachs alumnus and Internationalist was somehow installed to running the show. Now that George has exited, it begs a serious question, why is Mr. Carney still there?

    British business sails on, Brexit will prove to be the best move the nation ever made, we don’t need EUrope, whereas ‘they’ Brussels: Berlin/Paris desperately need Britain like a bovine thirsting beast craves fodder and watering.

    And good news or not, yet the poison is still running directly into our vitals, it is a pestilential seepage and affects all of our lives and nothing will alter our situation until we sever the umbilical. We are yet, part, a province of the federal superstate and secured by law, under the sway of a foreign court which bypasses our legislature and dictates to us what we can and cannot do.

    We’ll never really be away from the Brussels Empire unless we cut the cord, and be away OUT of the malignancy that is, the ECJ-ECHR and be not dismayed for these two act as one, the difference is of Jesuitic nicety.

    In a seafaring nation trade, always will go on but that: OUT has to mean OUT.

    1. Ed Mahony
      August 19, 2016

      ‘whereas ‘they’ Brussels: Berlin/Paris desperately need Britain like a bovine thirsting beast craves fodder and watering’
      – If you’re going to use a colourful simile, please support it with facts and argument otherwise it’s just mindless propaganda.

      1. libertarian
        August 20, 2016

        Ed Mahony

        Try looking at the trade figures, try to understand that EU countries sell far more to the UK than we sell to them. Try at least to find out something about business. The falling pound has made their exports to us more expensive. Think about the ramifications of that on them. Just try thinking

        The huge number of people that don’t understand the basics of business and trade is truly worrying, especially as they all seem to want to tell us that do it everyday how to go about it.

  29. Iain Gill
    August 19, 2016

    2 people killed this week by dogs… you would have thought the political class would have got off their bum and done something by now?

    1. Lifelogic
      August 19, 2016

      Yes, but usually about one or two a year, whereas about two people a week are killed by people with (usually poorly treated) mental health issues and who are left in the community. Very often when it is very clear indeed that they are likely to injure or kill people and the deaths are largely preventable.

    2. Lifelogic
      August 19, 2016

      It seems that the trouble is that very few dogs have even read the dangerous dogs act!

  30. Sean
    August 19, 2016

    Brexit..what Brexit?
    At the rated May is going (snail pace) i will not see Brexit in my life time.

  31. Peter Lavington
    August 19, 2016

    I, admittedly, was surprised by the referendum result. What I have found odd is the reaction by the markets. UK is still in the EU and who knows when we will leave. In the meantime the £ has fallen considerably. This will result in a big boost for UK exports. The economy, without a doubt, will grow right up to our exit. I know the markets supposedly predict the future but I feel this is case of ‘group think” and the usual media negative reporting. The stock market seems to have cottoned on, but I’m just surprised by the currency markets that they don’t seem to see the bigger picture.

  32. Stephen Berry
    August 19, 2016

    BREXIT has been the most marvellous political event since the collapse of the Soviet system. But whereas most of the Left had long abandoned this ship before the fall of the Berlin Wall, they were still firmly on board as far as the EU were concerned.

    A large organisation where politicians and administrators regulate the market for the benefit of all; how could anyone want to leave such an entity? How could you leave without suffering a huge hit? Given the predominance of the Left in the media and academia, expect more scare stories. Also, expect these stories to be blown out of the water as spectacularly as Mr Osborne’s emergency budget has been. Remember, it’s businesses, not EU politicians and administrators, which really create wealth. And these are functioning as before.

    One hopes that with the new evidence of stimulus from the falling pound, the BoE will now hang fire on further QE.

    1. Ed Mahony
      August 19, 2016

      ‘But whereas most of the Left had long abandoned this ship before the fall of the Berlin Wall, they were still firmly on board as far as the EU were concerned’

      – The following all supported Remain: most Tory MPs, the Financial Times, Sir Richard Branson, much of the business community, and in particular, large British companies, including some/much of financial City of London.

      Not forgetting, it was thanks to the huge support for Brexit form the traditional, Labour-supporting, industrial north, midlands and Wales that Brexit were able to win – and it wasn’t because of economics but due, mainly, to immigration. And with most of the hard-left, Marxist political activists hating the EU.

      1. libertarian
        August 20, 2016

        Ed Mahoney

        That would be the tax exile living in the Caribbean, the CEO’s of some city firms ( but not their actual analysts who reported frequently but avoided by the media that there would be little impact on Brexit ) The Japanese owned FT with a readership of only 80k in the UK. Much of the business community ? Really ? there are 5.6 million businesses in the UK over 50% of their owners voted leave. The former head of the CBI & Minister for trade, the former head of British Chambers of Commerce , JCB, Weatherspoons, Dyson and many others in big corporates voted leave.

        The whole of my county Kent , you know the one closest to continental Europe and solidly Tory voted unanimously to leave , only one town marginally voted remain. You need to get out more .

        ps

        Just so that you know as most dont really get this. Most of the “city of London” is made up of subsidiaries of overseas banks. Their CEO’s who are mostly non British didn’t even have a vote !!! CEO’s of large European Banks such as Deutsche bank based in the City were trying to prop up their own company/shareholder positions , not reporting what was best for the people of the UK. Deutsche Banks share price has collapsed losing two thirds of its share price .

        George Soros placed a multimillion-euro bet that Deutsche Bank’s shares would plummet in the wake of the UK’s decision to leave the EU.

        1. Ed Mahony
          August 20, 2016

          ‘Really ? there are 5.6 million businesses in the UK over 50% of their owners voted leave’ – I never said right-wingers didn’t vote Leave. I just said that lots of rightwingers like me (centre right) voted remain. And that lots of traditional Labour supporters in the north voted leave as well as lots of hard-left Marxists who hate the EU. All true. Not sure what you’re disagreeing with me about.

          1. libertarian
            August 21, 2016

            Ed Mahony

            Yes there really are 5.6 million businesses in the UK… Yes and more than 50% voted to leave. So I’m disagreeing with your unfounded statement and I quote much of the business community…voted to remain…. Fact … they didn’t

            “Right wing” people believe in small government. low tax, limited regulation, minimal central planning and free markets

      2. Stephen Berry
        August 20, 2016

        Ed, I was referring the opinion makers of the modern Left. Their agenda consists of such things as a strict adherence to the tenets of political correctness, a green anti-technology bias and a cosmopolitan outlook which frowns on nationalism and is relaxed about immigration. This is the outlook which dominates the modern Left with the Marxists an inconsequential rump.

        Remember that traditional Labour supporters in the North, Midlands and Wales disobeyed the Leftist intelligentsia when voting for BREXIT. Socially conservative and fiercely patriotic, they have little in common with the views which presently dominate the Labour Party.

        And yes, this Leftist agenda has also made inroads into the Tory Party, the media and the globe-trotting business elite. By the way, I remember an old joke once going the rounds that the FT was printed on pink paper to reflect the political views of the journalists who worked for it.

        1. Ed Mahony
          August 20, 2016

          Stephen,
          ‘And yes, this Leftist agenda has also made inroads into the Tory Party’ – how do you mean?
          Unless you mean centre right Conservatism versus hard right Conservatism? There’s always been this split in the Tory party.

  33. Mactheknife
    August 19, 2016

    Has anyone told the BBC the good news yet ? They continue to post negative news regarding Brexit in between taking aim at Donald Trump who seems to be another of their hate figures. They cannot find it in themselves to post one positive about either. Clearly they have an agenda, as they always do, but nobody within government seems to want this organisation revamped and restructured.

    1. Lifelogic
      August 19, 2016

      Indeed they certainly have an agenda:- Pro EU, pro Clinton, full of green crap, for endless climate alarmism, for PC fake “equality”, for an ever bigger state sector, for ever more government “investment”, for ever more red tape, for higher taxes, pro bikes and trains and anti real science, cars, planes or trucks.

    2. Denis Cooper
      August 19, 2016

      Well, Sky is just the same …

    3. Ed Mahony
      August 19, 2016

      ‘They continue to post negative news regarding Brexit in between taking aim at Donald Trump who seems to be another of their hate figures. They cannot find it in themselves to post one positive about either’
      – Here’s one positive thing about him as a politician. He said ‘bad trade deals costs jobs.’ Very true. And if he becomes President, he’ll be ruthless with any trade deals with the UK.

  34. acorn
    August 19, 2016

    Play another tune JR, it is far to early to be making such pronouncements. The transport lags in the financial system have yet to impact the scoreboards, it will be Q1-2017 before that happens. There were probably deniers in Pompeii, ten minutes after Mount Vesuvius went up, saying “volcano has had no effect, experts were wrong again”.

    Having been trawling through BoE and ONS datasets today, I can understand why Governor Carney is getting touchy about Household unsecured debt expansion (credit card), now running at 10% annual. The Osborne plan for switching public sector debt into private sector household debt, is working fine.

    BTW. I have a little summer house on order from a UK dealer, for delivery later in the year. Erecting it will be the last job on our little garden redesign, for the small local contractor doing the job. The UK Dealer says, would I like to take delivery now at the agreed price, because he jokingly says (I think); he can’t guarantee the price later in the year or, if he will still be in business. All his stock is sourced from the Baltic States, (they are good at wooden stuff), and paid for in foreign currencies.

    It would be nice if we had a government that had a plan for import substitution at least. A government that was not welded to ‘neo-liberalism’. That is, deregulation, privatization, trade liberalization, corporatization and small government; an ideology that subjects more and more socio-economic activity to the whims of “the market”; making profitability the governing principle in all its economic calculation.

    Conservative Party neo-liberal governments, have to understand that acting as just another market participant ain’t going to spearhead a Brexit future. Conservative Neo-liberal politics is dead and should be buried and forgotten at the earliest opportunity.

    Reply I am all for more import substitution and have been thinking about how to do this. Important to it will be the ending of EU procurement rules so we can use the power of public spending to generate more industry and jobs in the UK

  35. a pleb
    August 19, 2016

    It seems so clear to me that there is a long standing agenda by an elite group ( I cant work out who yet ) to globalize the government of the world. The EU being a step along this path. All countries will lose their individual identities and become one happy group.
    Nobody asked the people ( plebs) if they agreed.
    Over a long time various questioning plebs have written tracts, stood up and made speeches and then disappeared.
    Now though, there is the internet.
    Some of the “questioners” have been labelled fruitloops. Some of them have been chancers who have given the others a bad name.
    But its obvious to anyone with a full set of braincells that the one world government thing is malign.
    This is a pointless rant really but I think the JR Blog, on balance, is a good thing.

  36. Denis Cooper
    August 19, 2016

    Oh, look:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/olympics/2016/08/19/how-dare-the-eu-try-to-claim-britains-olympic-gold-medals-as-its/

    “The company, whose clients include the European Commission and European Parliament, has produced a new Olympics medals table which puts the EU at the top.”

  37. gyges01
    August 20, 2016

    How long before these long, long running disputes http://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/more-road-delays-expected-daily-11769578 turn into civil disobedience due to the lack of Brexit?

  38. Newmania
    August 20, 2016

    I wonder for how long will the Remain commentators carry on ascribing whatever happens in the economy to Brexit?

    Getting your excuses in so early ? This is not the first time and there will of course be no time when any economic news will not be evidence 0f the w0nders of Brexit . Pound falls , yippee, interst rates held down, it appears indefinitely … ” boo shame dissing Brexit , not needed ” inevitable consumer boomlet ” Yay for Brexit ! “……
    …..also good for breaking link between economic brakes and Brexit which wqilol , as any fule do kinow , be needed when we have actually left the EU .

    Reply Not so. It is just absurd to think most economic events and news is Brexit related. I do not claim all the good news is because of Brexit! So why do some claim any bad news is?

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