UK consumers have given the best possible answer to all the experts, media pundits and BBC guests invited on to show after show daily since the Brexit vote to talk the UK economy down. We have gone out and shopped for Britain, buying things made here, enjoying services provided by UK businesses, and creating jobs galore in the process. As producers the UK has worked harder and produced more to meet the demand.
I do hand it to all the run down merchants. They are clever and persistent. If at first they don’t succeed – and they didn’t – they try again. Here are some of their favourite scares:
1. Consumer confidence will be badly hit by the Brexit vote, so sales will fall, leading to job losses and further sales declines as people lose income.(result – record levels of spending growth)
2. Companies confidence will be badly hit by the Brexit vote, so they will put off investment. This in turn will mean fewer jobs, hitting incomes, and will of itself slash the growth rate. (Result Many good examples of major new investments being committed to UK)
3. Foreign investors will be put off coming here, so inward investment will be badly damaged (Tell that to Google, Wells Fargo, Tata etc)
4. The pound will go down (well they did get one right!) This will boost prices, which will slash real incomes, which will cut consumption which will lead to a recession.(that hasn’t happened)
5. People will stop buying new homes, so there will be price falls and a cut in new homes built .(Instead people went out and bought more new homes, and housebuilders are stepping up output by double figure percentages)
6. Commercial property values will tumble, undermining the construction industry and reducing landlord incomes (Instead commercial property values pretty stable with rents increasing and good flow of new developments and lettings)
7. Some big companies will take their business elsewhere. (Name them)
Everyone of these forecasts save the fall in the pound have been proved wrong in 2016. The original forecasts were for early disasters on the back of the immediate shock of the vote. Now they are regrouping and saying this all might happen later – say after Article 50 is triggered. Why?
It is wicked that some want to talk the pound down to spark the inflation that they think will result in the recession they forecast. It is bad that some want to talk large companies out of investing here to prove themselves right, despite the evidence of their own eyes that the UK is a large and growing market in need of more capacity to supply more goods and services at home.
No wonder experts were given a tough time in the referendum. To many of them look as if they bent their views and estimates to their political views, and now look like bad losers.
November 18, 2016
Very well put JR. Things are reaching the point where we must call these people out. I was prepared to let things go after we won the Referendum if the so-called experts had shut up and slunk away embarrassed at how wrong they were.
Instead they’ve carried on in spite of the mass of evidence piling up against them. This is damaging our country’s prospects internationally. I can’t think of any other country my companies trade with where this would happen to anything like the same degree.
I see Facts4EU has some articles in a similar vein to yours this morning:
http://facts4eu.org/news.shtml
November 18, 2016
Further in the newspapers today:
Dutch referendum to prevent visa free travel from Ukraine overturned by EU!
£1.3 billion of U.K. taxes given as aide to EU wasted on hotels and a TV programmes.
£850 million fine threat if the U.K. Remains in the single market.
UK admonished for preventing EU army to formed as quickly as Germany would like.
Schuable claims U.K. will pay EU until 2030.
EU dictators make Putin look positively good for democracy! The EU are still trying to entangle the U.K. to prevent us from leaving.
The govt. could use all this time energy and our taxes to better use on NHS, public services or other countries around the world. It makes me feel even stronger what the hell is May waiting for. It is costing us too much not to issue article 50. Start sacking a few remainers or give us an election to do a Donald on them.
November 18, 2016
I guess we could easily be paying until 2030, but with the amounts tailing off as our agreed commitments gradually expire. In fact depending on what is agreed about the pensions of EU officials we could still be paying money for that until they and their spouses have all died, which could be towards the end of the century. I suppose there could be the alternative options of paying that pension money as it falls due, or just paying a lump sum to discharge all our future obligations. However it’s important to distinguish between payments like that which will just be because we were once in the EU and while we were in it we agreed to it doing things like hiring staff, and payments like our present contributions to the EU budget continuing as a condition for our free access to the EU internal market. The one is to be expected and is acceptable as a debt to be honoured – provided we are not bilked over the amounts – while the other is not at all acceptable.
November 19, 2016
Thanks for your informed, researched and usually balanced comments. They are for me, would you believe it, a bit of fresh air in what are so often vacuous comments from some of the other regular contributors.
November 20, 2016
Many thanks!
November 21, 2016
@Denniscooper the UK not reneging on obligations is given and such continuations should continue but any contingent liabilities agreed must be offset against EU assets we have previously helped pay for at current values.
November 18, 2016
We also learn the Scottish agitator Sturgeon will be allowed to have a view at the Supreme Court Hearing. Could I ask when did the people on the English side of the union get to vote on the Scottish referendum whether we wanted the union to stay or not? It is our taxes being sent across the border to allow Scottish people to have more public money per head spent in them than us!
Like the EU she is not worth it! Do a Frozen: let them go, let them go…
November 18, 2016
Certainly lots of dithering and some very bad decisions being made by May’s government. But then half the Tories are just Libdims in drag. They have not even got rid of the dire Osborne yet. More than half the Cabinet were libdim remainers and probably most still are.
November 19, 2016
There are far more than half remaining ministers. It is heavily skewed to remain by a Remain PM. Do not underestimate the reasoning behind this.
November 18, 2016
So why are they doing it now?
Would that Brexit only breaks even, the doubters will suffer electorally: consistently and continually wrong! They are gambling and hoping for a downturn justifying their previous stance,also their ongoing one. Labour could face the worst Election defeat for generations.
We should then be given another referendum on whether in the interests of democracy and balanced journalism we allow the BBC, Sky News and CNN
November 18, 2016
And then talker down in chief Gideon and Carnage.
November 18, 2016
Indeed surely it is long past the time when both (and especially Osborne) should have resigned and gone.
After project fear, £4,300, his I will mug you Brexit budget threat, his 15% stamp duty, the pension mugger, landlord and tenant mugger, IHT ratter, his central wage controls and his general “I am an economic illiterate” approach how on earth does he have the chutzpah to stay on?
November 18, 2016
Do not forget that Carney’s predictions have always been wrong. He was going to raise interest rates when employment fell, he was going to do lots of things but when it came to pass he did not. Like Osborne, his Mystic Meg predictions were pure fantasy.
November 18, 2016
Good morning. 🙂
As a famous lady politician once said to, Harrold Wilson at PMQ; “You cannot buck the market.” This after he tried to spin things on the economy. And it is true today as it ever was.
For stability markets and business need certainty. They need to know that the market they are to invest in over the longterm is in safe hands.
November 18, 2016
@Mark B; As a famous lady politician once said to, Harrold Wilson at PMQ; “You cannot buck the market.”
Except that lady then went on to buck, play and spin the market herself…
[my emphasis] “For stability markets and business need certainty. They need to know that the market they are to invest in over the longterm is in safe hands.”
Isn’t that what Remain were saying?!
November 18, 2016
No ! The EU is a mess. Or have you not noticed.
November 19, 2016
Mark B; It might well be but there is still stability and certainty in such a mess, Brexit is a unknown-unknown at the moment for far to many businesses…
People who want Brexit need to come up with positives as for why Brexit will be great, not negatives about why the EU is so bad.
November 19, 2016
You seem to forget that we’ve already had a long referendum campaign, and we’ve had the referendum, and the votes have been counted, and the vote was to leave; those who failed to persuade the majority to vote to stay in the EU should not now be trying to re-run it all. But of course that is what they will do, because that is what their beloved EU does.
November 19, 2016
@Denis Copper; Why is it that europhobes like you always come out with the same-old same-old reply when ever anyone dares to ask a difficult question of Brexiteers, vacuous comments such as “we’ve already had a long referendum campaign, and we’ve had the referendum, and the votes have been counted, and the vote was to leave” tell us nothing – we all know that there was a referendum campaign, Time to move on to more substantive issues, time for some specific answers, not just vague suggestions, broken ‘promises’ and the bleeding obvious.
November 21, 2016
@Jerry Before the referendum you were quite vociferous for out. You got what you wanted.
You just like a moan don’t you?
November 18, 2016
You think the EU represents certainty?
I think not.
November 18, 2016
And since when was the referendum about the markets?
November 19, 2016
@getahead; “since when was the referendum about the markets?”
Thanks for confirming that Brexit is not about the economy but a political land grab by the right-wing!..
November 19, 2016
The EU is primarily a political project and our decision to leave it is also primarily political.
As far the economics of withdrawal are concerned, the overall effects may be positive or they may be negative but either way they will be pretty marginal.
As the charming lady on the right of the picture here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0837hb4/question-time-17112016
said, in a hundred years people will look back and say that UK made some minor changes to its trading arrangements with its next-door partners.
(23 minutes into the video.)
But I think that they will see the politics very differently, as much more important.
November 18, 2016
Yet even after this sensible statement, we had the ERM, the EURO, Osborne’s idiotically damaging national minimum wage, absurd interventions in the energy market, employment laws, the health market through the “free” competition killing NHS, in education with taxpayer funded “free” schools and universities.
Bucking the market is just what government do all the time. It nearly always does more harm than good, yet the politicians never learn.
I see that lefty ex(?) remainer May is now using the worrying phrase:- “I want it to give British companies the maximum freedom to trade with and operate within the single market – and let European businesses do the same here”
I assume this means we will not escape the EU under her. Anyone who goes ahead with HS2, Hinkley, wants worker and customers on boards and mandatory reporting of gender pay differences is clearly at heart deluded lefty libdim.
The gender pay difference is just a reflection of the different work life balance choices the genders take and the different subjects they choose to study. Just look at the statistics and this is very clear indeed. Intelligent numerate women & indeed men understand this very well.
November 18, 2016
LL, I assumed her message was that the UK was staying in the single market and all it entails. This is her EU light that we did not vote for. The Tory remainers got her to be PM for this reason. A leaver should have been PM or there should have been a general election for the public to decide. But they did not want the public to have a say or we might have given them the second wrong answer!
November 18, 2016
Markets look to the immediate. Firms don’t plan beyond 5 years at all.
November 18, 2016
MB. These so-called “markets” are overrated. All too often they are skewed by government policies or manipulation by vested interests.
JR quite rightly points out that house builders are stepping up output and yet we will continue to have what many call a housing crisis. Councils are often blamed for various reasons including not giving planning permission and yet many Councils say that house builders have permissions for 1000s of dwellings but only build a small proportion, but please explain why a builder would build as many as possible as quickly as possible thus probably reducing prices.
Why is it cheaper to fly from, say, Newcastle to Washington via Amsterdam or Paris rather than Heathrow? Could it be that Heathrow is subject to Airport Passenger Duty or any other government edict? Is this a fair market?
November 18, 2016
For my family, flying Heathrow to Berlin to JFK and return £300 cheaper EACH than Heathrow to JFK direct. Mind you, Air Berlin did manage to lose* our luggage en route so we weren’t saving much after the derisory compensation payout! I’ll never understand economics!
*Got it all back on last day of holiday.
November 18, 2016
Heathrow does not have the slots, we need a five runway Heathwick Hub. With an HS shuttle link taking about 15 mins. But the UK government far prefers to dither for 20 odd years instead.
November 18, 2016
There is no “free market” that ever survives without government regulation. Hence, a “free” trade agreement, is never free, because the “free market” that needs to exist for it to work, never exists naturally.
The mythical “free market” means a situation where multiple suppliers of the same product, have no control over the price of that product in the market. Hence, profits for each supplier tend to zero – technically down to the “opportunity cost” level.
The only solution is for some suppliers to try and create a monopoly / oligopoly / cartel, by lobbying / sponsoring / buying, government politicians.
True “free markets” are like those atomic particles, that only exist for a fraction of a second (Higgs boson etc). They do not exist naturally in real time.
Alas, Conservative neo-liberals, have based a whole political ideology on the myth of non-existent free markets.
November 19, 2016
Thanks for another bit of fresh air in this rather stuffy website.
November 18, 2016
BBC Question Time last night blew a gasket with Moandowners, crybabies and do-badders. It seemed like remote villages from 16th Century Scotland had gathered ready for burning alive a victim in a wicker basket. Did the Tory on the Panel manage an escape?
November 18, 2016
Indeed and Kwasi Kwarteng is it seems a real Tory, and not one of the many usual dire Libdim types pretending to be a Tories. The ones the BBC so like to select.
People like John Major, Matthew Paris, Grieg Clark, Ken Clark, A Soubry and the likes, no shortage of them at all.
November 18, 2016
Lifelogic:
Mr Kwarteng, 4 mins into the debate seemed to dally some time regarding what Farage and Trump may have been doing in a room. Of course, it was a LIVE audience, so speaking succinctly is not always possible
November 18, 2016
I watched the BBC’s Question Time programme too, and Kwasi Kwarteng was the Tory representative on the panel. He did pretty well, considering the poor chairmanship of the programme by David Dimbleby. Given an adequate chance, I am sure Kwasi Kwarteng would certainly have answered the critics in a comprehensive way.
I predict Kwasi Kwarteng is destined for high office. He is extremely clever and articulate, and has a mastery of his subject. Watch this space, and mark my words.
Tad Davison
Cambridge
November 18, 2016
Tad Davison:
Mr Kwasi Kwarteng: 4 mins 10 secs into the Question Time Debate on Trump:
“I think he’s probably a very nasty individual on a personal basis…”
We can “watch this space an mark ” your words Tad Davison and note your prediction theat Kwasi Kwarteng ” is destined for high office.” but wil will all get eye-ache .
To criticise the President-Elect Mr Trump, now, and thoroughly, on every single aspect of his political thinking and policies is one thing but that remark is unforgivable and deletes Mr Kwarteng from “high office” for the duration of Mr Trump’s presidency which could last for the enext 8 years.Unless the Tory Party is wholly without diplomatic brain. Of course Mr Kwarteng could meet Mr Trump in person, which he has not done, nor…actually listened to him at length and, importantly really understood what he says, and then declare, “Actually on meeting Mr Trump I find him, personally, a jolly good chap. ”
You really cannot have a senior politician making such remarks in public. I have no reason to believe by the way that Mr Kwarteng is anything other than a jolly good chap.
November 19, 2016
Christopher,
I cannot presume to speak for Kwasi Kwarteng. I don’t know why he said what he did, but, if Donald Trump is indeed a ‘very nasty individual’, perhaps that’s what we need to get things done and move away from the mamby-pamby leftist nanny state – somebody with guts and gall. The public seems to like strong leaders. Just as long as they are fair-minded and even-handed, I don’t have a problem with that.
Tad
November 22, 2016
Tad,
I’ll try to be honest with you. I did not know anything about Mr Trump until he started doing his rallies one and a half years ago. I had some free time. I listened to him from beginning to the end of his speeches..more like talks with the audiences. He kept referring to the media and pointing to the cameras and defied them to photograph the crowd. They wouldn’t unless someone created trouble.
Then just one new amateur outfit started showing the crowds. I thought I was listening to Mr Trump just telling the tale, without notes, just chatting to perhaps 50-100 known Party people . But there were at least 10,000 each time. He spoke WITH them. His words were pub style talk ( the British equivalent perhaps ). All the “insults” against Mexicans,well there were many Mexicans in the audiences cheering. For all I know he may be a nasty man but not openly. He is misquoted and misunderstood. He could not have won otherwise. He spoke to people one-to-one. Very finely polished but seemingly unpolished communication. Quite honestly I have never heard a communicator like him.Never.
November 18, 2016
Indeed clever articulate and actually a real Tory for a change.
November 18, 2016
It would be interesting to see how the percentage of total discussion-time is allowed between the different panelists. QT would also be much better without any audience participation. Where does the BBC dig these people up from?
November 18, 2016
If only you were right but we live in a time when Etonians and intellectuals are barred from high office. Very weak of Mrs May and her pilot fish to go along with this bigotry. (Boris only squeaked through as a firewall and to pacify the party membership.)
November 19, 2016
I take your point. One of the most outstanding parliamentarians of our time is Jacob Rees-Mogg. What an outstanding Foreign Secretary he would make. And were JR the Chancellor, with a proper Home Secretary who had the b*lls to get a grip of crime both in and out of prison rather than just another in a long line of out-of-touch weaklings, we might just finally achieve that long cherished goal of a nation at peace with itself.
As for Mrs May, I have yet to be convinced. If she delivers on Brexit, without fudges or compromises, I might see her in a different light.
Tad
November 19, 2016
The other disqualification is that they are all men. Every able man in the cabinet has to be balanced by a token woman, so many get left on the back benches even if they haven’t been to Eton.
November 18, 2016
Oh it was ridiculous wasn’t it?….. Exactly as JR says, instead of it calamity breaking forth immediately after a LEAVE vote as they specifically promised, it is now when we trigger A50 or actually physically leave the EU…… However, the SNP rep had a new take on it by saying that the people don’t understand and are not reacting properly to the LEAVE by collapsing and expiring in shock. Instead they are living normally, sales are growing and the economy is growing. I could definitely see the cognitive dissonance kicking in. I really do think that some of these people have a screw loose which stops them considering objective reality!
zorro
November 18, 2016
Watching an extract from the Obama and Merkel press conference yesterday(the real special relationship-you’re such a tart,Obama!),they don’t “get it” either.
November 18, 2016
There would be electoral virtue in an MP admitting he had got it wrong about Remaining. He would be taunted about it by opponents of course. The electorate can choose honesty above stupid consistency.
November 18, 2016
The comments of Mr Schauble, who has apparently been persuaded by M. Hollande to insist that there will be retaliation against the UK (trade sanctions unless unlimited immigration and subjugation to EU institutions is accepted plus extortion of payments post exit in return for tariff free trade), shows that we need to be prepared for fruitless negotiations with the EU. It’s possible they will all calm down after the French and German elections, but it’s also possible they won’t. That being the case, the Government should focus urgently on dramatic measures to improve competitiveness and the investment attractions of the UK: tax simplification, sensible investment (as opposed to waste such as HS2), and get moving on bilateral trade deals elsewhere, to come into force on Brexit. Perhaps Mr Trumps desire to re-negotiate NAFTA could be an opportunity for the UK to join. The Government needs to start to set out how life will look if the EU’s rigid adherence to its ideology prevents it making sensible trading arrangements with the UK.
November 18, 2016
Why don’t we just politely tell them to go to hell? What sort of club is it that punishes members who want to leave?
November 19, 2016
A club which is really a cult.
November 18, 2016
Well said Ricardo. It is astonishing that the EU elitists have no respect for the opinion of the British voters. It is time to recognise that negotiating with bigots does not work. Let’s just get out.
November 18, 2016
Instead of ‘bigots’, perhaps I should have said ‘adherents to the new world order or as T. Blair calls it ‘the modern world’.
November 18, 2016
Less people watch news programmes regularly now. Years ago TV was an education. Now it is something bad for children in large doses and mind numbing for adults in any size of spliff..
November 18, 2016
Fewer people watch everything now, this as there is so much choice of things to watch or listen to. Even programmes like Horizon are absurdly dumbed down and painfully slow at getting to the point.
November 18, 2016
Also infected with political correctness. Try the one on:- Are Male and female brains really are wired differently? On the other day and on BBCIplayer as a typical example.
November 18, 2016
For a society which ostensibly desires an equilibrium between all humans, the continual references to male and female are odd. You never hear a fuss being made of blondes and brunettes except in locker-room banter. Oh dear there are not enough brown haired people serving in the cabinet! This is brownism of brownophobia.
Serious business people who wish to make money pick the right one for the job even if their pick turns out to be a hobgoblin from the cabbage patch at the bottom of the garden.
November 18, 2016
The BBC is a security risk.
It’s the old story of crying wolf. Don’t they do it about everything? Vitamins, fatty foods, sugar, coffee, Brexit, chocolate, aspirin, Mr Trump, sunshine.
One day we may face a national emergency. We have one now. It’s the BBC
November 18, 2016
@BS (take that which ever way you wish!); Once again the ignorant right-wing target the BBC as if it is still 1954 or at least 1981, no mention of the damage that the likes of ITN and Ch4 (news) do or indeed the “talk-downing” that Sky (news) do…
November 18, 2016
Whist I am dreadfully sorry about the plight of those poor children in Syria, it has to be seen to be believed. Do I really have to watch it every night on C4 News?
November 18, 2016
Jerry
So what you’re saying is that its OK for the BBC to be pro remain, pro left wing , pro SJW , pro snowflake because …..the other channels are too?
If you say so
November 19, 2016
@libertarian; No I’m not saying that Walter, although you seem to be implying that it is OK for every media outlet other than the BBC to do so!
@getahead; Nonsense. No one has to watch broadcast TV… As I have said before, it is far simpler to legally avoid paying the TVL fee that it is to stop funding commercial broadcaster.
@rose; The point is, whether it is the BBC’s Charter or Ofcom code all broadcasters are licensed and regulated which includes not being biased.
November 18, 2016
We have to pay for BBC propaganda, which is not right.
November 18, 2016
I agree with you, Jerry, about Channel 4, ITN, and Sky. But people get more riled by the BBC because it is supposed to be impartial, and to inform, educate, and entertain to a very high standard, for which we pay the licence fee, and on which it is regulated.
November 19, 2016
Off the cuff I’d say that people’s failure to pay the BBC for it to continue to bombard them with its propaganda is the most frequent cause of the court cases summarised in our local paper each week.
November 19, 2016
@Denis Cooper; The problem with your theory is that these same people are happy to continue to be bombard with such propaganda, be it bias from the BBC or any of the other television broadcasters – hence why they get caught…
More likely it is the same logic why some think they need not pay VED (or even motor insurance), put simply, they believe that the law shouldn’t apply to them.
November 20, 2016
I don’t see cases where people have failed to pay their dues to other broadcasters. That’s because the BBC has a privileged position, which it constantly abuses and does not merit.
November 20, 2016
@Denis Cooper; “That’s because the BBC has a privileged position”
Fact-less nonsense on stilts! The BBC does not have a privileged position, unlike broadcasters who derive their income fully or in part from selling air time for commercial advertising. There is no law that states one has to pay the TVL fee, because there is no law that states one has to watch broadcast TV, on the other hand there are laws that say one has to pay such advised shelf price for goods and services in full even if one has no use for a TV what so ever.
November 22, 2016
What are you burbling about now?
November 18, 2016
‘One day we may face a national emergency. We have one now. It’s the BBC’
– The BBC has a lot of liberal and left-wing luvvies who, I agree, we need to get out.
BUT don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater and please use your imagination over the BBC.
The BBC should be about creating original and creative TV – arts programmes, historical documentaries, film, drama, comedy, children’s TV and so on. Programmes that stimulate imagination and make us more interesting people!
The BBC does still make great programmes. Has certainly done so in the past. And can certainly do so in the future.
The alternative is to go down the roads of other countries, in particular the US (and I worked there for a while), where many people are exposed to hours of moronic / banal / inane TV. Psychologists have done many studies demonstrating the harmful effect of bad TV on people, especially children, and that is at a time when we’re already challenged by the malign side of the media – traditional and digital – above all easy access to pornography, both soft and hard.
The BBC also plays an important role, directly and indirectly, in the success of our creative industry in general.
The BBC should be a national cultural icon like Shakespeare or London (although the government is now going to help ruin that a bit more with extra noise pollution from Heathrow). And certainly not something we should want to undermine and destroy.
November 18, 2016
As usual the Beeb continues whenever possible add its totally rabid, pro-Remoaner slant to any item of news that it broadcasts.
The News program announcer was telling us that retail sales last month are up 7%, best performance since 1998 and that this has been achieved “despite Brexit”.
Naturally they are casting around desperately for arguments to justify that word “despite” (e.g. Guy Fawkes, fireworks, Halloween outfits, the cold weather, blah, blah, blah, you name it).
Seems it never occurs to their lefty, adolescent, right-on Islington-beardie type news editors that the more appropriate prepositional phrase could be “because of Brexit” but obviously their command of English language syntax and grammar does not extend to many prepositional phrases.
November 18, 2016
Yup.
November 18, 2016
Couldn’t agree more British Spy but it seems there is no one prepared to call this Corporation to heel. To expect the UK taxpayer to pay for non-stop EU propaganda is a ridiculous ask.
The good news here is that a substantial percentage of the electorate is running ahead of the governing class who appear to have lost the will to govern. Mrs. May’s procrastination re invoking Article 50 and her subsequent remarks on how it will take longer than two years for the UK to fully extricate itself from the EU tells me she intends to play the long game. If this is so then it is likely to be Brexit lite.
We read today that Pres. Martin Schulz has put his name forward for the post of Chancellor come the 2017 GE in Germany. Now he really is a friendly chap when it comes to the UK – only three weeks ago it was. “We will punish the UK.” I doubt the BBC broadcast those words.
November 18, 2016
The EU pays the BBC millions of pounds each year for its non-stop propaganda. Any discussion where there may be a conflict of interest should follow a clear statement acknowledging this financial support.
November 18, 2016
Indeed, and the fall in the pound is in large part the result of the cut in interest rates and the policy of the BoE. Also the lack of a pro business, cheap energy, lower taxes and bonfire of red tape agenda from lefty interventionist, workers on boards and gender pay obsessed Theresa.
Also not helped by the absurd waste of money on HS2, the green grants and Hinkley.
Things could be even better with sensible leadership for a change. Let us hope Hammond delivers some fiscal sense and vision next week.
November 18, 2016
@lifelogic
Hear hear, but I won’t be holding my breath.
November 18, 2016
Re fall in pound – absolutely but they NEVER mention the ridiculous interest cut and totally unnecessary QE (not that I didn’t expect it…) being in any way a signal for a fall in sterling…..
zorro
November 18, 2016
Don’ hold your breath waiting for Hammond.
If he had more sense he would have ensured that HS2 was scrapped and the Hinkley Point scheme was changed to a conventional well tried reactor design like the one proposed by Hitachi.
We are making three hugely expensive mistakes when you add the 3rd runway.
With inevitable cost overuns are looking at between £100bn-£150bn.
How could our politicians possibly have allowed this to happen ?
November 18, 2016
Indeed but we can but hope for an outbreak of sense from the man (and his boss).
November 18, 2016
“[../spin/..]Everyone of these forecasts save the fall in the pound have been proved wrong in 2016. [../more spin/..]”
Err, but Brexit has not happened yet and it won’t happen before 2017, most likely 2019, nor does anyone know for sure yet if Brexit will happen (so the europhobes keep complaining) whilst the rest of us do not yet know if Brexit will be the so called hard or soft – falling back upon the WTO or Mrs May will be able to achieve the Brexit holly grail of exit from the EU but maintaining full and interrupted access to the internal market (or what ever the europhobes wish to call it this week…).
The consumer confidence you talk of (and up) could well be people buying now in the expectation, and in some cases reality, that prices will rise as will inflation whilst wages might remain static or even fall post Brexit.
“No wonder experts were given a tough time in the referendum.”
Indeed, and it explains why the result was within 4% of each other, one could suggest that if the economic benefits were so overwhelmingly in favour of Brexit, as you and others want us all to believe, the gap between Remain and Leave should have been a lot wider.
It will be interesting to see the opinion of the new Chancellor and his team next week, if you are correct John then there will be no need for great infrastructure projects, indeed there should be scope for greater (tax) cuts, but all the signs suggest that far from further Monetarists styled policies there will be a continued switch (back) to broadly Keynesian economics.
November 19, 2016
Remain’s Project Fearcampaign assured us that various negative things would hapen immediately if we dared to vote to leave.
Apart from the fall in the value of the Pound none have happened.
That is fact not spin.
November 19, 2016
@Patrick Geddes; What do you not understand about the fact that we have not had Brexit yet, Remain could still prove to be correct [1], whilst both sides used “Project Fear”, fear of the uncertainties of Brexit vs. fear of the (un)certainties of continued membership.
[1] and had we voted to stay in the EU those wanting Brexit could still prove to be correct.
November 19, 2016
@Jerry
Let me see if I can help you here Jerry
adverb: immediately
1. at once; instantly.
November 20, 2016
@Bob; “would happen immediately if we dared to vote to leave.”
Except that is meaningless unless one first defines what is meant by a “vote to leave” – what vote did BSE and their supporters mean when they said that, the advisory referendum vote (now accepted as such by many Tory Brexiteers [1]), or the now pending vote(s) by Parliament that will trigger A50 or indeed repeal the 1972 Act of Accession.
[1] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/19/heavyweight-brexiteers-go-public-as-60-tory-mps-demand-clean-bre/
November 20, 2016
I do understand that Jerry thanks.
What part of the words “immediately after the vote” do you not understand Jerry?
November 20, 2016
Patrick, see my reply to @Bob.
November 18, 2016
Do we have a gross output measure of the Skousen type?
November 18, 2016
This isn’t merely sour grapes, it’s an existential fury on behalf of the illiberal metropolitan elite that a majority of people voted against their wishes and advice, and included within this majority was a substantial proportion of the people they despise most – working class folk.
They are going to keep this up until they produce a recession in order to justify their calls for a second referendum, therefore our present task must be to work to prise their hands from the levers of power before they further destroy this country.
November 18, 2016
And now we have an unelected Lord telling us we’re too stupid to rule ourselves. It’s time that geriatric care home was disbanded.
Joe public will be very angry if they try and stop Brexit.
The establishment really are angry with the dolts with a vote. No wonder that they want to displace us with foreigners.
November 18, 2016
Sorry about duplicate post. Phone said first was cancelled.
November 18, 2016
On June 23rd 2016, the people voted to leave the European Union, we did not have a general election anyway we were allotted a new executive, for some unknown pretext but very efficaciously choreographed, a remainer was installed in the hot seat.
In the event of victory for the leave vote post the plebiscite count, the then acting PM had faithfully promised to invoke Article 50 on June 24th, though very as usual with all Mr. Cameron’s promises, nothing accrued, he bailed out and so typical and now ‘we the people’ are all at sea and we are as near to leaving the EU, it’s almost as if – on JUNE 23rd, we voted to remain.
Thank the Lord, the Referendum was only advisory, it now looks as though Renzi’s defrocking on Dec 4th, Dutch in March? more likely Marine Le Pen next May: is our best shot.
November 18, 2016
How touching!You still believe democracy exists in those countries.So Renzi goes (possibly),who will be allowed to replace him?
November 18, 2016
Renzi’s referendum isn’t advisory.
November 18, 2016
Why is the BBC still in existence? It is a left wing, pro big government propaganda organisation funded by taxation enforced by bullies. End the licence fee and see if they can remain dominant in Britain’s media for long.
November 18, 2016
Indeed.
November 18, 2016
The Tory government had it’s chance to deal with the BBC and flunked it.
Another opportunity missed.
At least I can say that I am not providing funding for this anti-British propaganda organisation, my conscience is clear on that score.
I can’t think of any other country in the world that would use taxpayers money to undermine it’s own existence.
November 18, 2016
Notice today the BBC talks of ‘taxpayer money’ being used for the Buckingham Palace refit but does not use the same phrase when talking about other public funding such as its current campaign for more NHS spending.
November 19, 2016
Isn’t it money coming from the Crown Estates which George III surrendered in a very bad deal for his descendants?
November 18, 2016
Mr Redwood, the BBC has rebuked you this morning:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38011185
“In some quarters, he [the Chancellor] is already castigated for not sticking to a “happy clappy” script.
Sensible people agree Brexit is an economic leap in the dark, destination unknown. But to some, acknowledging this is akin to heresy.”
Despite having lost a great deal of credibility recently, the BBC is still a powerful political player and sadly, its “talk your country down show” has greater power and reach than you have.
I’m with you. The BBC’s judgement on just about everything is so out of touch that we can now use it as a reliable negative indicator.
November 18, 2016
Indeed the BBC is consistently wrong on nearly every major issue from the EU to climate alarmism, from magic money tree economics to taxation policy, from their insufferable political correctness to their endless demand for more red tape and more government “investment” everywhere.
November 18, 2016
How can wanting to be just like over a hundred other sovereign countries be a; “Leap in the dark ?”
November 19, 2016
Especially when we have recently been independent – for about a thousand years.
November 19, 2016
The real leap in the dark would be to stay, not knowing just how bad the Eurozone, the EU foreign policy and army, and Frau Merkel’s Free Movement of People from other continents are going to get.
November 18, 2016
The answer to the dilemma of “experts” is to get rid of them . Frankly , what good has Carney done since he took over the reins at the BoE ?. What real contribution did the young boy Osborne make ?. Did the other young boy – Cameron , lead this country effectively ?. We all know and can see the result .
Recent events show that the establishment cannot be trusted and must be replaced . We face an enormous challenge in restoring the dignity and success of this country ; we must not drag our feet in dealing with the problems .
November 18, 2016
“Would it not be easier for the Government to dissolve the people and elect another?”
November 19, 2016
Well they are doing a vey good job of importing a new,more compliant population.
November 18, 2016
I think it’s about getting the balance:
– between no confidence and over-confidence (=> quietly confident)
– being hopeful but also realistic
– having ideals whilst also being pragmatic
However, i think we need to be cautious at this stage:
– firstly, because it’s very early days (some might argue we’re in the Phoney War stage – the real battle lies ahead).
– secondly, because we didn’t go into this with a proper plan (everything from running a large corporation to a village fete requires a plan). And success in the plan involves not just the economy, but also about how to pay back our national debt whilst this is all going on, whilst maintaining Europe as a bastion of strength against those who threaten our peace + security: Putin, terrorism, mass migration from the Middle East and Africa etc … whilst figuring out how to work with our European partners on big scientific and commercial projects that we can’t do on our own.
November 19, 2016
“whilst maintaining Europe as a bastion of strength against those who threaten our peace + security: Putin, terrorism, mass migration from the Middle East and Africa etc … ”
But Ed, no-one is really in charge of all of this which is why it is out of control.
Frau M invited everyone in without consulting her fellow Europeans or having the power to do it. Now she wants to stop the invasion but can’t.
The EU army etc isn’t going to protect you because it is undermining NATO.
The open borders have been a disaster for crime and illegal immigration, to say nothing of terrorism.
The EU isn’t a bastion of stregth at all. That is an illusion. If countries in Europe were independent, with proper borders, they would be responsible for their own policing and defence and not just imagine the EU will take care of security. Europe would be more orderly and stable and more respected by outsiders.
November 18, 2016
Another aspect of the talk your country down show is seizing on statements made by EU representatives that suggest we’ll be made to suffer in the exit negotiations and, by implication, it serves Leavers right – we really shouldn’t have voted to leave. So we’ll be asked to fund ongoing pension liabilities for UK nationals employed by the Commission. Fine – but our ‘red line’ should be that this will be subject to satisfactory auditing of relevant costs, with a UK auditing input, without which we pay them nothing. That might even help other EU nations to push for proper auditing of all EU accounts, which is long overdue.
November 18, 2016
The broadcast media every day spreads its doom and gloom. I thought there was a Broadcasting Code which demands ‘accuracy and impartiality’ but this is flouted on a daily basis by the BBC, Channel4 News, Sky News and ITV. Nothing seems to be done. Journalism has become propagandism. People are increasingly turning to other sources to inform their opinions as they are sick of being told what to think by the national broadcasters.
November 18, 2016
How can you be sure that “other sources” are accurate and impartial?
November 18, 2016
I thought there was a Broadcasting Code which demands ‘accuracy and impartiality
>
Its worse than you think
November 18, 2016
Rather than there being a problem with Xenophobes , the most pressing issue our country faces is the rampant Patriot-phobic culture that pervades many organisations , where the instinctive action is for them to do our people, culture and country down. For decades we have been told what a failure we are as a people and country, where we would be nothing it it weren’t for immigrants, where our values and culture are only made tolerable by ‘enrichment’ and god forbid the thought it was possible to value it for what it was and had achieved. As for actually being positive about our country well that would have the likes of the BBC calling it nasty nationalism if not racism.
In this Brexit has been a joy, for it has smoked out all the Patriot-phobes, rather than keep up the background tone of negativity , in their eagerness to do us down they have exposed themselves, they shouted our demise from the TV studios and news papers headlines, so much so people couldn’t help but notice, and notice when it didn’t happen, and rather than be embarrassed at their error they have kept on digging the hole they are already in.
November 18, 2016
The experts’ predictions all seem to have been based on the assumption that we would leave the Single European Market. Some companies’ decisions at present seem to be based on the assumption that we will stay within the Single Market, and indeed Nissan seems to have received an assurance from the Government that this will be true for the car industry. Half the public is pleased we are leaving the EU and thinks things will go well. The other half think hard times are coming and it’s better to buy now before prices rise.
It’s not clear what the government’s policy is, but it appears to be to retain Single Market membership for those parts of our economy where many UK people are employed or profits are made, but to allow other parts of the economy to operate outside the Market, so that we can make separate trade deals where we consider that profitable.
In this circumstance we do need to wait and see what will happen. We do need to be realistic. We might not get membership of the Market for the sectors where we want it, or at all. Not every industry will get the guarantees that Nissan appears to have received. The negotiations are likely to be complex and could take several years.
I am one of those who thinks hard times are coming and it is better to buy now. If I had to make a business investment decision I would be very cautious unless I sold to a market outside the EU or internal to the UK (which is more than half the businesses in the UK of course). But if I could see my competitors investing, maybe I too would be carried along by their enthusiasm.
November 18, 2016
Is our establishment afraid we’ll all emigrate to the USA? It’s a deluge of abuse on Mr Trump and his America. You could fall asleep from the intense quiet in most places where I went. Well I didn’t go to Noo Yark and I would’ve liked to have gone purely for the accent. Also to the deep south just to hear “ya’all” .
MPs in my local paper condemn Trump. The Remainers in particular have a thing about him. BBC “This Week” stated even Mrs May had something to say bad about him in …wait for it …way back in 2015
He must have, and I’m sure he has, enormous world-stopping presence.
I hope his family buys up our media and sells it all to a unwary scrap merchant.Then give the penny to charity.
November 18, 2016
Sky News have a slot given over to individuals to express an opinion on subjects of interest and concern to them. This morning they gave time to a young woman who confessed to being one of the comfortable Liberal Elite who had got Brexit and the US election wrong.
The reason apparently was that they hadn’t listened to the concerns prior to the votes of the dispossessed, minorities, ethnic communties and so on, who had thus been forced to turn therefore to what she considers to be an extreme solution. She may have been serious even though it sounded to me like a parody, as I’ve heard this line from some on the Left as well as other Elitists. They will therefore be listening to the little people more carefully in future.
They just cannot understand, it is beyond them that it was not just a few but millions who voted both for Brexit and Mr Trump because that is what they wanted and took pleasure in giving the smug Elites a kicking in the process. She proved just how detached they are.
The future however lies with the Proles. Sadly we may need to take to the streets.
November 18, 2016
Interestingly a new ‘YouGov’ poll has found support for ‘leave’ has risen to 68%
November 18, 2016
Well, they might not all vote to Leave if we actually had another referendum.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/11/17/brexit-briefing/
“68% of people think that Britain should go ahead with Brexit, unchanged from when we asked the same question in October. People who voted to Remain in June are evenly divided between those who opposed Brexit, but think the government has a duty to implement the decision and leave, and those who would like to see the government ignore or overturn the referendum result.”
November 18, 2016
I always felt instinctively that with my fellow countrymen, the split was roughly ± OUT at 70% and at 30% for in.
Surely it cannot be denied, that, the populace were ceaselessly showed by a doom laden scare mongering ‘leave if you dare!’ on behalf of the remain camp and that many who were dithering listened and accordingly voted remain.Remain.
Remain, speciously brought to bear, against the rules of the Referendum – used the considerable power of the UK administration to bear, thus remain was far more effective than was anything the leave campaign alluded to.
However, now the dust has cleared in hindsight and people are being more honest in their quantification its reflections, it is no surprise that, some would admit they voted incorrectly for ‘remain’.
The power of propaganda was undone but never underestimate the UK authorities, and the hand of the Establishment. For, now they resort to the law and the law is made manifest in the UK through the Aegis of the ECHR. NB. we will be undone by Blair’s babies – the 1998 HRA and via the auspices of a very [purposefully] prejudiced UK supreme court and what a circus that will be.
November 18, 2016
It must be nearer 90% in the 80% that work in the private/productive sector.
November 18, 2016
Even ordinary people have noticed this talking down – especially by the BBC.
OK.
The ‘neutral’ judiciary have just let off an activist who scaled Nelson’s Column and caused £35k worth of damage. A small fine and £30 costs. Why such a lenient punishment ? Because the activist was an environmental campaigner passionate about his cause.
Well I’m passionate about mine.
I wouldn’t like to test the neutrality of the judiciary by refusing to pay my BBC licence fee individually on principle. (Apparently a huge amount of magistrate’s court time is taken up with non-payment – the live-and-let-live BBC goes to huge efforts.)
It is unfair and out of date that a television set automatically makes one obliged to pay the BBC licence. One cannot get out of paying it with a TV.
However, they cannot prosecute 17.5 million people co-ordinated in protest by hint. Simply complaining about their conduct is not going to make any difference. I would suggest non payment of Sky too but they can cut subscribers off – a boycott would be good to see.
And as for the ‘neutrality’ of judges, particularly High Court. Oh do pull the other one !
November 18, 2016
Judicial activism – the way they subvert democracy and further their cause.
November 18, 2016
I think Charles Moore already tried this.
We also have had lots of other “environmental” criminal damage to power stations, crops and the likes.
November 18, 2016
One of the greatest disappointments to me, has been the increased ‘loss of moral compass’ in the UK these days.
Of course some politicians have always behaved badly/abominably.
But I am saddened that many have now completely lost all sense of pride.
Once upon a time, people would be reticent to stand up and say “We lost, but we are not accepting it”.
Now, to be a bad sport, or a bad loser is perfectly acceptable, it seems.
No shame shown at all…just brazen.
Of course, when money and future career prospects (i.e. EU jobs) are threatened, that has obviously worried some MPs and they have ditched their ‘morals’. Money is a powerful motivator.
I am just saddened, that as a nation, we have once again lost some of our essential Britishness – our sense of fair play.
I know before someone says it …Nostalgia is not all it used to be…
November 19, 2016
What can you expect when MP’s vote from 203 votes to 7 that ………. MP Keith Vaz is fit and proper man to run a select committee ?
No doubt he is a safe pair of hands if you want to obfuscate and delay so nothing gets anywhere .
November 18, 2016
On the happy day that John Redwood falls off a cliff he will find the agony generally starts when you reach the ground not whilst approaching it. During the graceful decent I expect to hear an upbeat commentary on how cool the breeze is , how exhilarating the speed and how foolish those scare mongering “ Don`t go near the edge-ists” must feel.
November 18, 2016
Credit though to Mr Redwood. He allows people to challenge his views and even mock him which lots of others wouldn’t do.
The annoying thing is that I actually like most of the Brexiteers but think they’re wasting their time. Boris should be a man of letters not wasting his time in politics. David Davis could be doing lots of good work in helping to build up our business sector. Mr Redwood could be doing lots of good work in energy and transport and things like that.
Yes we must press on with Brexit. But the best we can hope for in the long-term is some kind of settlement where we’re sort of in Europe but with control on immigration (and other things such as spending our own money we send to Europe) which might spread to the rest of the EU over years, leading to general reform of the EU.
The realistic alternative is where we get into real trouble trying to pay for Brexit and pay off our national debt. With this just spooking the European markets even more. And the whole of Europe – including the UK – could end up in a really serious economic situation leading to serious challenges to countries’ politics, constitutions, and general peace and security.
– God forbid that ever happens.
November 19, 2016
That is not actually true – he censors rigorously and in a partsan way
November 19, 2016
How do you know it is partisan if you don’t know what the rest of us are having censored? The fact is nowadays we no longer have free speech and he has to be vigilant in running a blog such as this that we don’t attract complaints. The Free World is full of language tyrants and they cause lot of trouble.
November 19, 2016
I write quite a few lazy, silly comments – glad some of them get censored.
November 18, 2016
Ah! A good little analogy there.
Unfortunately, it is another attempt to move the goalposts.
We were told there would be IMMEDIATE FINANCIAL ARMAGEDDON after a Brexit vote.
We didn’t believe Project Fear then…why on earth would we believe Project Fear (RIP) now…
I am sure Mr Redwood would soar away into the air, before hitting the ground, as his hang-glider springs into action…the same as the UK will soar away…DESPITE the DOOM-MONGERS.
November 18, 2016
The BBC reports Brexit as a disaster story even when there is no disaster to report.
The usual ‘despite Brexit’ or ‘because Brexit hasn’t happened yet’ are attached to every bit of good economic news. I point this out because you obviously do not realise the subliminal control you are under.
Whatever. This is not anything like the horror story we were promised would befall us the very next day after the referendum. In fact it’s all been rather good. I still can’t book my favourite restaurant and a pro Brexit/anti EU Trump Republican will be in the Whitehouse, which you failed to predict (or acknowledge) too.
Personally I don’t expect things will be good – not because of Brexit (an understandable decision) but because the chickens have come home to roost for the ruling Liberal elites who ignored the people for too long. This applies to the EU as much as America and Britain.
This is a revolution and you fail to see it (the editor of the New Statesman does, however.) The genie is not going back in the bottle no matter how much you squeal.
This is a popular revolt and sneering at revolutionaries (as you have been doing) is 100% the wrong way of dealing with the situation. It is highly dangerous.
November 18, 2016
Must be difficult being proven wrong all the time, Newmania.
Good thing you’re not using your real name as you could be charged with bringing your employer into disrepute.
(Any thoughts on the changes in America ?)
November 18, 2016
I think it was John Major and his Libdim gang who took the Tories and Country over the cliff. JR was trying to explain economic reality to them but they would not listen.
November 18, 2016
Newmania,
Is there any argument you have against Brexit except for money ? I’ve yet to hear you object to it for any other reason. Let us hear a little bit about yourself.
November 18, 2016
Never mind “don’t go near the edge-ists”, Newmania.
Not only are things no way as bad as they told us they’d be, there is LOTS of good news too.
Now you weren’t expecting that, were you !
November 18, 2016
Newmania
In the real world if one falls off a cliff you generally fall downwards not upwards
November 18, 2016
Fantasy versus reality. Ideology versus natural forces. Religion versus secularism. All these opposites are being seen in play. Progressives, deists and socialists wish us to embrace the former three without reservation and when we do not or at least only halfheartedly they use all means possible to convert us. Lies, deceit and even aggression is their stocking trade. They see no wrong in their actions as they believe the end justifies the means and any damaging side effects a price worth paying.
We resist and carrying on with our lives in as normal a way as possible despite the handicaps they put in our way. We confound their dire predictions because like all they believe in they are wrong and our behaviour precludes them. They do not recognise that they are wrong in fact they believe their own lies. That what serial liars do. Sometimes they are right but that is only because the law of averages lands the dice by chance on the correct number. Sometime they are right because they manage to convince enough of us to behave in a way that will make it make come true.
They tell themselves that their beliefs are based on ensuring our best interests and ignore the fact that it is nothing more than a power grab. They have no evil intentions but the result of their intentions in the end is evil and corrupts them in the process.
November 18, 2016
I think there is such a thing as national morale. For instance, I read this morning that the Germans are saying we will paying off alleged debts to the EU till the year dot. How about Mrs May standing up and saying – NO we won’t!
November 18, 2016
Germany is fretting that she’s just become the single mother of many dependent children.
The BBC are now telling us Germany is the ruler of the Western world. The USA still has 10 super carrier battle fleets, does it not ?
November 18, 2016
I agree with John’s analysis.
I call it shoddy if not very iffy journalism when a supposedly neutral and impartial broadcaster seeks to promote a hidden agenda for their own purposes. To keep reporting falsehoods ad nauseam in the hope it ignites a passion in the minds of the British public who then reject a decision already made is one thing, but to force us to pay for it through a compulsory subscription, like it or not, is beyond the pale.
It is often said that if a person doesn’t like a particular programme, they can always switch it off. If only I could do that with the direct debit that pays my licence fee!
We can never realistically expect the BBC to show balance when they are allowed to get away with misreporting to such an extent. It is in everyone’s interest to change the entire BBC culture. We, on this side of the debate, don’t ask for special favours. Indeed, I like to hear both sides of every argument, quite unlike the political left who seem to want to ban anything and anyone they disagree with. I want to see balance for my money, not a lop-sided mouthpiece for the ultimately doomed and unworkable European Union. People are ditching big-government neo-liberalism the world over, and it’s about time the BBC got that message.
Tad Davison
Cambridge
November 18, 2016
Tad Davison:
Very recently I have noticed the BBC, by their apparent partisanship, lulls certain politicians into a false sense of security and catches them completely absolutely off guard. Or, by happy coincidence. Much in the vein of Bernard Archard’s Colonel Pinto in the TV series “Spycatcher.”
In short the BBC may be more honourable than I at first thought. And more sneaky!
November 19, 2016
Christopher,
I have noticed BBC journalists do lay traps for the unwary. They also get poorly-informed people to give an opinion on a serious matter so the ‘expert’ from the opposing camp can demolish the former’s argument, rather than get the best experts in the field on both sides to argue the case head-to-head. Our own host for instance, would make mincemeat of most, given the opportunity.
That is indeed sneaky of the BBC, and denies the public the highest quality of debate for their money. The motive must of course be, to help promote a hidden, skewed agenda, so I am trying hard to reconcile that with the word you used – honourable. The BBC cannot surely be both honourable and sneaky?
Tad
November 22, 2016
Tad,
They’re journalists.
November 18, 2016
Having watched question time last night, and tv parliament for years, I think a referendum should be held, in England only, to get Scotland out of the UK. I must say that I have had enough of these whinging Jocks.
November 18, 2016
Agree with that Brigham. If the Scots had held their referendum in England, they would probably have got exactly the result they wanted.
November 18, 2016
A good article here:
http://brexitcentral.com/hugh-bennett-continued-conflation-membership-access-single-market-lazy-misleading/
“Continued conflation of membership of and access to the single market is lazy and misleading”
“To be fair to the press, NatCen’s press team was equally guilty, titling their press release “Voters want UK to stay in the EU single market but be able to control immigration”, and leading with “Almost everyone (90%) supports remaining part of the European single market, regardless of how they voted in the EU Referendum” – despite the warnings of their colleague, Professor Curtice.
This line of reporting appears even more egregious in light of the specific wording of the issue about which participants were asked to indicate their opinion, namely: “Allowing companies based in the EU to sell goods and services freely in Britain in return for allowing British companies to sell goods and services freely in the EU”.
To jump from this most innocuously-worded statement about mutual business operations which, unsurprisingly, hardly anyone found themselves able to disagree with, to a full-blown endorsement of the EU’s single market truly is a leap of olympic – or perhaps should I say titanic – proportions.”
November 18, 2016
But the German chap is saying we will be paying into the EU for YEARS.
November 18, 2016
As we will, inevitably, unless we choose to clear all our agreed future obligations in a single upfront lump sum. Personally I think it would be better to pay a retired EU official his pension in installments month by month until he and his spouse have both died, rather than pay it all in one go to the EU so it can meet those future costs, but some people like actuaries might take a different view.
November 21, 2016
Payments less the rent on the assets our past contributions have paid for Dennis.
We might end up with an account in credit.
November 18, 2016
Dear John, you are completely correct except you fail to give credit where it is due. The Pound did fall, but not due to Brexit, but most certainly due to Mark Carney, who immediately announced a reduction in interest rates, and a massive QE programme.
We have a similar but opposite response in the USA, where Janet Yelland has held interest rates extremely low for an excessive length of time, against all predictions, in an effort to kick-start the economy under Obama. Suddenly, as Trump comes to power, she announced today that she will abruptly raise interest rates and halt QE. Similar to our experience here, the pundits, Biased MSM and ‘experts’ will say that electing Trump has damaged the economy, and will never again mention the rate change or QE, looking to put full responsibility on the new President.
November 18, 2016
All these commentators now confront the great difficulty that the accepted wisdoms that have informed their whole careers are being weighed in the balance and found wanting. I suppose it must be quite hard for them to face up to this in a rational way. It must be particularly galling to see the few from the other hitherto derided camp, yourself, Patrick Minford, Roger Bootle and indeed Mervyn King, et al. being proved right. It will need considerable political leadership though, as Mrs thatcher found, to recast the mould. Let us hope that Mrs may is up to the job.
November 18, 2016
“Rupert, didn’t I notice a vacancy in the Consulate in Ulan Bator?
Offer it to Redwood, there’s a good chap, he’s being optimistic again and it just won’t do!”
November 18, 2016
Camila Ahmed at the BBC is one of the worst.
November 18, 2016
“Goldman Sachs forecasts pound will fall to $1.14 by end of 2017” today in the Telegraph.
There is nothing the little people can do to protect against this!
November 18, 2016
There were 4 dollars to the pound in 1945.
Goldmine Sachs are hardly risking their credibility and reputation by predicting further falls in the pound against the dollar, in the future.
November 18, 2016
Some / a lot of Brexiteers have banged on about making the UK ‘glorious’ again.
This is delusional nonsense in my view. What we want is a country that is functional not glorious. With strong family life and values. Stable economy. Strong defence, arts and culture in general. Good health service and care for people when they get old and die.
Where people are mentally balanced. Have good friends. And a fulfilled family life. ‘Glory’ is for the Napoleons of this world. Egotistical. Empty. And delusional (and doing lots other people harm in the process).
November 18, 2016
I see what you are saying John. But I don’t see many people giving a realistic picture at the moment. Our country has some great strengths. Brexit fear was massively overdone. But there are some challenges. The metrics being monitored by the great and the good no longer provide a good insight into what is really happening. As an easy example the unemployed figures thesedays bear little relationship to the numbers really looking for work. And the stats do not accurately reflect the problems the immigration situation is causing. And so on. So I would prefer we didn’t “talk the country down” but at the same time we need to have an honest realism about some of the massive problems we have.
November 18, 2016
Yes business as usual, may gov just the same as the last one, wet liberal, nothing much will change, just lots more waste, each gov trys to beat the last one on waste and wars.
November 18, 2016
John, today’s EU horror story is of a £51bn bill to exit the EU for commitments we are already signed up to, is that right or just crazy speculation? And do you think today’s ruling from the Supreme Court that they should allow representations from the member nations could scupper the whole deal?
Rather than drag out this painful process when and if we ever get to serve our Article 50 notice, I would suggest that we should take a very firm line based on the following. My understanding is that about 40% of our trade is with the EU BUT that that is ‘only’ 20% of our total GDP, since the other 80% is accounted for in serving the UK domestic economy. So EU trade is worth ‘just’ 8% of our GDP. Given we can readily supply ourselves, the 80% is fairly secure and the likes of BMW, Mercedes, Bosch, Peugeot, Citroen, Renault, Fiat, Seat, French and Italian wine and cheese producers et al are hardly going to want to stop selling to us completely, so much of the 8% is safe too, why not just pull the plug completely, say we’re going to WTO rules, an ESTA-like visa scheme, EU nationals welcome if ours are overseas, and be done with it, end of?
November 19, 2016
This is what a continental country would do: keep the rules that suited and look after the national interest. But you would need a bold and confident PM and cabinet for that. And a united country.
Do you notice that N Ireland is not invited to the party? It can’t be because the leader there and her party are Brexiteers, can it?
November 18, 2016
Off-topic, I despair that journalists apparently cannot understand that:
1. The Parliament Acts only apply to primary legislation, Bills intended to become Acts, and not to secondary legislation, statutory instruments.
2. If MPs want to exclude the possibility of the Lords being able to veto certain statutory instruments then they only have to make sure that exclusion is written into the parent Act, there is no need to amend the Parliament Acts.
3. If the government has to get legislation passed to authorise it to serve the Article 50 notice then that will have to be primary not secondary legislation.
4. Therefore it is irrelevant to Brexit that the government has now sensibly decided not to pursue the idea of amending the Parliament Acts to exclude the Lords from being able to block statutory instruments.
November 18, 2016
7. Some big companies will take their business elsewhere. (Name them)
I am dubious about this Remainer claim myself. I don’t quite understand why British companies wouldn’t just start to look for alternative markets.
That said, hasn’t there been talk in the press recently that leading banks / financial companies are seriously looking into moving onto the continent? Actually starting to plan such a move. Over the last week or so I had got the impression this was sthg more than the idle gossip it had been until now.
Am i wrong?
November 18, 2016
Can anyone tell me why, if there’s no money to complete the GWR electrification, there is plenty for HS2? Just askin’.
November 18, 2016
I agree with what you say John,
I think one can compose a little ditty on the lines of
“Whingers of the world unite … etc ” to some appropriate tune.
Applicable too to the American Presidential election result …
November 18, 2016
Good letter to the editor in the Telegraph this morning, I paraphrase:
Angela Merkel says that if an exception were made for the UK regarding freedom of movement, it would endanger a fundamental EU principle, because everyone would want it. However, if everyone would want it, what democratic support can there be in the EU for the principle. And if there is no support for the principle, why not abandon it anyway!
November 19, 2016
But why should they expect anybody other than the “stupid” British to want to abandon unlimited and uncontrolled freedom of movement of persons, when allegedly it is such a huge benefit?
This German economist had something to say about that:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/10/10/punishing-britain-with-a-tough-brexit-will-harm-everyone/
“The British government’s plans to restrict the freedom of movement of labour for EU citizens without giving up access to the single market for goods and capital has been widely criticised as “cherry-picking”. This view is popular, but wrong. It does the notion of integration a disservice: depicting the free movement of goods and capital as “cherries”, with the free movement of labour as the bitter pill to be swallowed in return, will increase resentment of economic migrants. In any case, from an economic standpoint there is no compelling link between free access to the labour market and the rest of the single market.”
November 18, 2016
Mr Redwood
Are you concerned that the Supreme are allowing the Scottish Government, the Welsh Government and a Trades Union, to appear at the appeal hearing?
No news about allowing Lawyers for Britain to appear…
What is the basis, for who can and cannot, attend the case?
Very worrying…
November 18, 2016
It has been the way of life for 20 years now. They can’t do better themselves so they call everything c***p. You see them on the streets cigarettes poised out of their windows to flick ash down at certain motorists in some imaginary game of put downs. They are but clowns. Life goes on with building, buying and selling. The services continue and the customers make their choice.
November 19, 2016
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/18/supreme-courts-most-senior-judge-urged-to-stand-down-from-articl/
Once again the Supreme Court is trying to excuse the inexcusable.
November 19, 2016
It’s getting increasingly difficult to see how ordinary people can trust the judges on this, and by extension on anything else.
November 19, 2016
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/18/lady-hale-and-her-supreme-court-colleagues-seem-to-have-no-idea/
Charles Moore puts our case on this well.
November 19, 2016
Can we, the people of the UK, ask for the Supreme Court hearing to be televised?
We seem to be getting the views of the people of England argued against by unrepresentive spokespeople and the leave voting regions should have a leave spokesperson each if Sturgeon is allowed to represent the Scottish. Has the London mayor been given a platform too? It’s becoming a joke.
Is the Law correct or not? That’s all it should be about, this was not a devolved issue. If we want to make it a song and dance show let’s all participate and see just what a good job our UK parliament does to represent us at the Supreme Court.
November 19, 2016
More nasty trouble-making by the Machiavellian EU Dictators as there is talk about ongoing EU payments!
We should tell the EU, that we will discuss mutually agreeable arrangements, after the UK serves notice under Article 50.
At that time, the UK should look at the legality of demanding ongoing payments, in any obligations or agreements we have signed.
Counter-claims, for a share of land, buildings and other assets that the EU ownsshould also be fully explored.
However, before any of the financial discussions can begin, THE EU MUST PRODUCE INDISPUTABLE EVIDENCE OF EU SPEND FOR EACH OF THE LAST 41 YEARS.
That means; EU accounts signed off by Auditors…for the last 41 years…
…THE ACCOUNTS MUST CONTAIN NO ANOMALIES.
Unfortunately, the UK will be unable to accept EU accounts, with caveats from the auditors, such as:-
“Payments for 2015 are materially affected by error.
We therefore give an adverse opinion on their legality and regularity.”
November 20, 2016
The opera ain’t over ’til…………………….