The Prime Minister tells us the government is committed to Brexit and wishes to deliver the benefits it can bring. That is good news.
I look forward to early news from the government on the following.
First, I want to know how all the money saved is going to be spent, and a sense of urgency in getting us out of financial commitments as soon as possible. I have set out my own suggestions for increased spending on health, social care and other priorities. Spending that money at home gives a 0.6% GDP boost and saves us a lot of money on our balance of payments deficit.
Second, I want to see our new fishing policy as we become an independent coastal state. We need a policy that is kinder to our fish and our fishermen, and which lands more the fish caught in the UK for UK consumption.
Third, I want to see a new migration and borders policy which is fair between EU and non EU migrants, and assists the government in hitting its targets for levels of migration.
Fourth, I want to see the Trade Department roll over the current EU trade agreements with other countries into UK agreements and make good progress on negotiating good agreements with more of the 90% of the non EU world that does not have a trade agreement with the EU. I want the UK to offer reduced tariffs and barriers to developing countries in return for more market access for ourselves.
Fifth I want to see tax cuts in areas where we cannot cut taxes at the moment, including the abolition of VAT on green products and domestic fuel.
Sixth I want to hear what our global agenda will be as we regain our vote and voice on a number of important international bodies.
June 15, 2018
Good morning
Seventh: What laws, taxes and duties will we repeal ?
Sadly I do not believe we will do any of these things. Not whilst we are tied to the Single Market and Customs Union. EU membership in name only.
June 15, 2018
Loads of taxes need repealing now and can be done while in the EU. Stamp duty, IHT, tax on medical Insurance and the bonkers double taxation of interest for landlords for a start.
June 17, 2018
Hardly possible when the Ā£20 billion to the NHS is coming from taxes as a seeming bribe to Brexiteer MPs to help them sell May’s EU surrender.
Leaving the EU in total would indeed be a wonderful benefit to Britain. But we have a useless sellout PM trying to prevent that very circumstance.
And what are so–called Brexit MPs doing to stop her? You are preaching to the converted here Mr Redwood. Go put your boots to May and force her to do what the British people told the British State to do on 23/6/16. If 2 or 3 vile traitors like Grieve and gang can get so much publicity it is time we saw action from those on the side of freedom and prosperity.
June 15, 2018
*as in Brussels-based, provider of nuggets on direction of the ‘negotiations’
June 15, 2018
There is no money “saved”. All serious economic forecasts, including all those prepared by the government, make clear that leaving the EU will damage our trade so badly that we will lose billions of pound. Far from giving us money to spend, Brexit means immediate impoverishment for our country
June 15, 2018
They do not. Check Patrick Minfordās report. His forecasting record is much better than the Treasuryās or the large majority of economistsā over many years.
June 16, 2018
How come it will cost us billions if 62% of our trade is done outside the EU with tariffs applied. When free trade with the rest of the world is applied our trade will increase while the EU will carry on stagnating
June 15, 2018
Henry Spark, All your “serious economic forecasts” that made a prediction of events, after a vote to Leave, were wrong. All your “serious economic forecasts” that made a prediction of impoverishment if we didn’t join the EMU, were wrong. All your “serious economic forecasts” that predicted we would be better off in the EEC/EC/EU were wrong.
One thing is absolutely clear: in or out of the EU, our wealth is dependent upon our own efforts – the EU won’t subsidise us, even if we remained in. The vast majority of our trade (c89%) is with ourselves or the rest of the world. Independence is valuable in its own right and, historically, independent countries are generally better off than if they remain a vassal state.
June 16, 2018
You talk the most fantastic rubbish. All the most prosperous countries are in customs unions or free trade areas with the countries they are nearest to. How can you say forecasts predicting the UK would be better off in the EEC/EC/EU were wrong? We did join them, and we did joined them because we were falling so far behind countries already in the Treaty of Rome. We joined them for economic reasons, and the graphs of our economic progress since then are self-explanatory.
June 16, 2018
perebois
Seeing as you haven’t a clue about the massive difference between a free trade area and a customs union we can safely ignore you
June 18, 2018
I didn’t use the two terms in the alternative. I used them discretely. As you can’t tell the difference between the two concepts, we can safely ignore you.
June 19, 2018
perebois
You are factually wrong too. Ignored
June 21, 2018
very rude
June 15, 2018
This is untrue. There are a number of respected economists that indicate there is every opportunity for economic benefit post leaving the EU. Minford, Bootle, Lyons and many others including the Briefings for Brexit panel – look them up. Much of their work is surpressed by the Press. Like Parliament, the majority of the journos are Remainers and so are at loggerheads with the populace that voted for Leave.
June 16, 2018
Yes, it’s impossible to find a newspaper that backs Brexit.
June 15, 2018
The only negative impact of Brexit has been George Osborne becoming editor of the Evening Standard.
June 15, 2018
Project Fear predictions which come from sources where previous forecasts have been already seen to be overly pessamistic.
Their models used to create these forecasts can be seen to be odd having included in them a prediction that our trade both imports and exports will fall greatly whilst our our trade with the rest of the world will not rise.
June 15, 2018
I suppose you mean “serious economic forecasts” of the kind which predicted that merely voting to leave the EU would immediately send us into a deep recession … oh, no, hang on a minute, that can’t be right, the UK economy has actually grown by about 3.6% since we took that fatal decision to leave the EU:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/263613/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-the-united-kingdom/
Which 3.6% of GDP gained by the UK economy through natural growth over the past two years is getting on for twice as much as the whole, one-off, economic benefit of the EU Single Market as claimed by EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier himself, a paltry 2.13% added to the the collective GDP of the EU member states, see page 13 in his 2012 report here:
https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/c505dbb4-64f1-40a6-8062-ebdea6240bd4
While another analysis agrees with that kind of number as the average across the EU as a whole, but argues that the gain for UK has been lower than the average, only about 1%; while again the long term trend growth rate of the UK economy is 2.5% a year, higher than the reduced growth rates we have been seeing since the peak on that chart in 2014, that is long before the EU referendum.
June 16, 2018
Before the referendum the UK was top of the G7.
We are now at the bottom.
June 16, 2018
perebois
And as we are still in the EU your point is what exactly?
June 18, 2018
My point is that the EU is doing better, relatively speaking, than we are. This is a new phenomenon, and can fairly be ascribed to the drain of investment, especially from abroad, since the referendum. Less investment means less good economic performance. It is a fact that investment is down. It is not surprising that economic performance is also down. It is not enough that we remain members of the EU, though that is essential. We also have to remain attractive to international investment. Our decision to leave the EU means we fail on both fronts.
June 19, 2018
perebois
Wrong again
UK investment is at a record high
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/03/uk-inward-investment-is-at-a-record-high-so-why-has-almost-no-one-reported-it/
June 17, 2018
Before the referendum economic growth had already been slowing for nearly four years, as pointed out here:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/05/30/how-brexit-can-give-us-a-stronger-economy/#comment-937829
June 15, 2018
I think that commenters such as Spark here hate the idea that they may soon be proved wrong, and so have to cling on to Project Fear as a sort of comfort blanket. Yes, there have been differing economic forecasts (though economists are like financial advisers and weather forecasters – they can say anything and never have to pay for their mistakes) but to point to those from a Government that obviously wants the UK to ‘remain’ doesn’t inspire anything but derision in most of us here.
Remainders like you are gleeful at the very idea of the UK suffering – and that demeans you.
June 16, 2018
The worst forecasts have been prepared at the instance of ministers in DExEU. They are forecasts signed off by Brexiteer ministers.
June 16, 2018
no they were leaked by the civil servants that made them up
June 18, 2018
Are they fibbing then?
Davis has told the Brexit committee that they are the basis for his ‘planning’.
June 19, 2018
perebois
Yes they fibbed and no Davis didn’t say anything of the kind . The forecasts have been comprehensively debunked even by some Pro Remain economists
June 15, 2018
Loads of money to be saved but only with a clean Brexit. Not the Brexot in name only that May looks like delivering. Cut taxes, cut regulation, cut the expensive energy green crap, this would be a massive boost to the economy.
June 15, 2018
āAll serious economic forecasts, including all those prepared by the government, make clear that leaving the EU will damage our trade so badly that we will lose billions of poundsā.
Like the leaked impact assessment report which gave a worst case scenario of a loss of 8% of GDP over 15 years or 0.5% each year ?
Since we are told that we can easily afford a foreign aid budget of 0.7% per year of GDP the 0.5% per year needed to give us independence should also be easily affordable.
June 15, 2018
Your 4th point is interesting. You are on record – you said it in the House of Commons – that the UK automatically enjoys the benefits of the existing EU trade deals after Brexit. You have changed your tune. Now you want them to be “rolled over”. First point – apologise for your previous errors. Second point – the other side needs to agree to “roll over” these deals, and none has agreed, nor will they, because the UK has such a weak bargaining position, much weaker than the EU’s
Reply Yes it is automatic unless the other side disagrees as I have always said
June 15, 2018
That is like saying that a penalty at the World Cup is an automatic goal unless the goalkeeper saves it.
Put another way, you are being utterly illogical. Something which has to be accepted by the other side before it comes into effect is the very opposite of “automatic”.
June 15, 2018
Pedantic nonsense Colina.
Do you really think there will be any nations who currently trade with the UK that will refuse to carry on doing so?
Automatic is the correct term.
June 15, 2018
None will refuse. All will demand, and get, better terms than apply currently, because the UK is smaller and less powerful than the EU. No country gives a market of 60 million the same deal it gives to one of 450 million. The EU is a heavyweight, the UK is about to become a bantamweight. Brexit = giving up influence and control
June 16, 2018
Its all in the negotiation process.
If we current terms work then most will carry on on these terms.
You forget as an independent nation we could either offer tariff free trade or adopt tariffs on those who play us up.
One benefit is we won’t have to wait for 28 nations to agree.
What was is 10 years for an EU Canada deal and still no USA or China deal?
June 15, 2018
They will continue to trade, but they will take an opportunity to get a bigger share of the UK market. The UK; import dependant in several sectors; will be much easier to take on, than the much larger and more experienced EU negotiators.
Continentals tell me that eleven WTO members have already objected to any “automatic” transfer of quota agreements.
June 16, 2018
I’ve heard and read the opposite,acorn.
June 15, 2018
Dear Collina–So according to you the likelihood or otherwise of the other side accepting has nothing to do with it–Did I get that right?
June 15, 2018
Collina, No, it is not like a “penalty at the World Cup” at all. The automation comes in because, if the other party agrees in principle, none of the time consuming hard work of the trade negotiation needs to be undertaken a second time.
June 15, 2018
Of course! The Koreans will stop wanting to sell us cars and mobiles, the Turks will want to stop us going on holiday and buying freezers and the Canadians will want to stop selling us whisky, cheese and aeroplanes.
June 16, 2018
No. They will keep on selling us things. But the terms of trade will be worse. Would you back the UK to get a better trade deal from President Trump than the EU will?
June 16, 2018
perebois
Yes absolutely we will, and if you knew the first thing about trade you’d know why too.
June 18, 2018
Ah, but clearly it has to remain a secret at the moment, eh, libertarian?
June 19, 2018
perebois
No its not a secret, those of us that actually trade internationally are pretty up to speed with how to do it, what the pros and cons are and we are pretty on the ball as far as strategic business directions. Heres your started for 10 , the UK economy is 80% service based and we are world leaders in tech… along with the USA , the EU is nowhere in sight
June 15, 2018
Grandfathering EU FTAs, to the UK will be tripartite negotiations involving the EU because of Rules of Origin and Tariff Rate Quotas to name but two aspects.
June 15, 2018
Acorn, The majority of what we import from the rest of the world is not then re-exported to the rEU, so the EU’s ROO are irrelevant. For the minority, we already conform to the EU ROO. No real change.
Moreover we have already agreed with the EU that we would share quotas on a pro-rata basis. So your “tripartite negotiations” claim is a sham.
Most of the EU’s RTAs registered with the WTO are minor, except for S.Korea and Canada which are a decade away from being implemented. As JR pointed out 90% of the non EU world hasn’t got a trade agreement with the EU – other than the primary WTO rules..
June 16, 2018
“Only 15% of UK total trade is currently with countries that are not members of the EU and are not covered by any EU trade agreements. 51% of UK trade is with members of the European Union, 4% is with countries in the European Economic Area (EEA), 9% is covered by existing EU Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) and 21% is with countries with whom an EU PTA is currently under negotiation or exists, but it is not yet implemented.
The EU currently has existing PTAs with 52 countries, and it is negotiating trade agreements with another 72 countries. In case of Brexit, the UK would therefore need to re-negotiate or start new bilateral negotiations on 124 trade agreements, plus one additional trade agreement re-defining its own trade status as a third country vis-Ć -vis the EU.” (Bruegel, Pia HĆ¼ttl; Silvia Merler)
None of those 124 countries will make a move, until they know what the final deal will be between the EU as a large trading bloc and the UK.
Also, JR seems unaware of the UN Generalised System of Preferences (GSP). This is a UN scheme to promote trade between developed and developing countries. It was fully implemented by the EU in 2014.
June 15, 2018
acorn
No they won’t
June 16, 2018
You forget that UK is still represented in the WTO by the EU. Brexit will weaken the EU’s clout in WTO. Brexit will transfer 16% of the EU’s clout in the WTO by GDP from protectionism to free trade. That will make a significant difference. But with Mrs May it won’t happen until 2022 at the earliest and she is likely at the EU summits in June and September to concede to the EU’s blocking of UK’s independence for at least a generation.
June 17, 2018
America and the six other big food exporters, however, wrote an unusually sharply worded letter of complaint dated September 26 to the U.K. and EU representatives at the World Trade Organization over the terms of such an arrangement. An easy bespoke trade deal? Maybe not.
āWe cannot accept such an agreement,ā reads the letter, seen by POLITICO. The seven countries dispute the legal defense that the proposed post-Brexit arrangement would leave them āno worse off.
The countries were particularly aggrieved that they had not been consulted and stressed that no calculation of Britainās tariff-rate quotas could be agreed at the WTO āwithout our agreement.ā Indeed, the countries suggested Britain and the EU might need to rework the whole system of import tariffs and could not just shuffle quotas between each other, without disturbing āthe delicate balance of concessions and entitlements that is fundamental to the global trade architecture today.ā
June 17, 2018
We are in the middle of negotiations.
In fact UK USA trade deal negotiations have hardly started.
What we are seeing are just preliminary skirmishes on both sides.
June 15, 2018
Well said John
Like most people though I doubt it’s going to happen
PM seems to want Brexit in name only
June 15, 2018
The discussion of a Brexit bonus is a bit like a ship wrecked man discussing the evening menu with a coconut, but let us inhabit the hallucination . Assume no loss from erecting barriers with our domestic and global markets etc and lets blow all our Ā£6bn on the NHS making the heroic assumption it works .
UK Health spending, about Ā£145 billion is now Ā£151 bn
Performance dividend āAverage A and E waiting time 2 hours 9 min is now 2 hours and 4 min
Just a sad fantasy but even if it were true ā¦ā¦..
June 15, 2018
Newmania, That sounds more like your hallucination. The bulk of UK GDP (c72%) is trade within the UK’s own single market. We don’t need the EU for that. Then about another 17% UK GDP derives from exports to the rest of the world, which trades under WTO rules, which cover 98% global trade. The EU just isn’t that important to us.
And far from paying the EU for them to export more to us than we export to them, we should take a leaf out of PotUS Trump’s book and insist that the trade must be much more balanced overall. We can only do that by becoming independent and by having recourse to the WTO ourselves. At the moment we’re just being exploited by the EU.
June 16, 2018
Yes, we should insist. We should stand up to the EU and demand that things should be better than they are now. We should insist. Just like President Trump. Because we are as big and as important as the USA. We’re being exploited by the EU at the moment. It’s not that important. Half our trade in goods is a bagatelle. Let’s got to the WTO rules pure and simple, which Mauretania uses and hardly anyone else. If we go to the WTO rules, the EU will give us a better deal than the one we have at the moment. Great stuff!
June 16, 2018
perebois
Oh dear
Last week the EU issued a letter to Trump reminding him that the USA is the EUs biggest trading partner and its a dream partnership they said and they dont want it ruined by the tariffs Trump has threatened.
So you know because you seem a bit deluded about trade the EU and USA ( the biggest deal the EU has) is done under WTO rules
June 18, 2018
Of course it is done under WTO rules. WTO rules apply to all trade, to a greater or lesser extent. The question is whether trade can be made more beneficial and cheaper if underpinned by common standards and a level playing field for taxes.
The EU has no deal with the USA. It fell through, and a good thing too, because it was pernicious. The EU’s biggest customer is the UK, and we are the biggest customer because we are in the EU.
Are you paid to write this stuff, or are you wilfully blind? How impoverished with the UK have to become before you admit to yourself, and then others, that you have been driven round the twist by your dogmatic adherence to outdated and increasingly untenable nostrums?
June 19, 2018
perebois
Did you not even read the post you typed ?
I’ve cut and pasted the relevent bit here , this is what you said
“Letās got to the WTO rules pure and simple, which Mauretania uses and hardly anyone else.”
Hardly anyone else would include the EU and the USA ? Lol
Wrong here is the European Commissions own website showing the USA is the biggest market
http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2006/september/tradoc_122530.04.2018.pdf
As you clearly have never run a business being pompous about er business leaves you looking stupid
There are 190 odd countries in the world, the UK exports to more of them than it exports to the EU, there aren’t common standards and tariffs ( I assume thats what you meant by taxes as there are no uniform taxes in the EU ) across the globe. If you had ever exported anything to another country you would know that .
I’m neither paid nor blind. I’m an entrepreneur doing business in the EU, North America, South America and the Far East , you meanwhile know not a lot and can’t even get basic facts right
June 21, 2018
unnecessary
June 15, 2018
The hallucination is yours, but unfortunately still shared by many others including the Prime Minister. The reality is that the EU, and its customs union and is single market, have never been of more than marginal significance to the UK economy.
June 15, 2018
Denis, indeed, there exists a graph which shows that GDP has been reduced since the United Kingdom joined the single market.
The single market benefits the few at the expense of the many.
June 16, 2018
What’s your solution to the Ireland border?
Doesn’t the EU arrangement stop Kent being turned into a lorry park?
Don’t we sell half our goods exports to the EU?
If we leave the EU, how will our services exporters be able to back up our services provision without the intervention of a tedious, expensive, and rebarbative visa system?
Which countries will we sell to that we can’t sell to now?
Which countries will we be signing trade deals with?
How will we be better off outside the EU?
June 16, 2018
perebois
I just finished making a TV programme about Kent being a lorry park. Its been like that for the last 20 years !!!! All whilst in the EU….
Yes well sell 44% of our goods exports to the EU which means we already sell 56% of goods exports to non EU countries
Just so you know 82% of economic activity is within the UK, which means at best just 7% is with the EU
Oh and 80% of our economy is services based and the EU doesn’t have a single market in services
Its not who we can sell too, its who and what we can buy
Your service/visa point is meaningless drivel
So far the heads of the commonwealth representing 2.3 billion consumers , plus USA have all indicated they wish to sign FTAs with us
Blimey remainers are clueless
June 18, 2018
A lot of abuse, and no answers to the visa point, the Ireland point, the new trade point (why does Germany do so much better than we do?), or how we will be better off outside the EU.
Where will I be able to watch your programme? Russia Today?
June 19, 2018
perebois
The programme was on the BBC , its the third I’ve made in the last 15 years about this subject.
What you call abuse are actually verifiable facts.
What does Germany do so much better than us?
You dont appear to know what a service business is, why would you need a visa to sell services?
I sell services into Spain, Canada, USA, Brazil and Japan. I dont need a visa to do it….
Read my post again , try to understand then get back to me.
June 17, 2018
perebois, my solution to the fabricated Irish problem is here:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/06/14/in-the-customs-doldrums-again/#comment-940587
June 18, 2018
Hi Denis, it’s not really a solution, is it? The EU is concerned not just with UK exports being of a poor standard and/or low tariff – it’s also concerned with EU products being ‘laundered’ by the UK and the integrity of the customs area being undermined. And of course I would have thought that Brexiteers would have been concerned with Turks, Romanians, Bulgarians and Poles all heading to Ireland and gaining access to the nirvana of the UK. Certainly a lot of Brexit voters don’t like immigrants of most kinds.
Your blog post is typical of its kind – waving away real problems, saying they are ‘fabricated’, and blaming others for the problems your own ‘solutions’ create.
June 15, 2018
Isn’t the EU going swimmingly !
June 15, 2018
The cost of leaving the EU an extra hour’s wait in A&E by your measure.
June 15, 2018
The Brexiteers are like the Black Knight from Monty Python and the Holy Grail.
As bits get chopped off him heās there with his comment āTis but a flesh wound.ā
As bits repeatedly get chopped off Brexit those pretending it is going swimmingly look increasingly deranged.
Be honest Brexiteers. Brexit is not going well – is it?
You had not foreseen the issues. You had no clue what it would entail.
At least grow up and admit this truth which is blatantly obviously to all.
June 16, 2018
Well said.
June 16, 2018
Be honest Andy, it is people like you, lacking any shred of patriotism, who are doing their utmost to make sure that it does not go well – aren’t they?
June 18, 2018
It’s the failure of Brexiteers to come up with any kind of solution to the Irish border conundrum that will kill Brexit. That has nothing to do with patriotism. It has quite a lot to do with competence.
You can’t have two competing customs regimes and no border. Impossible.
June 20, 2018
perebois
“You canāt have two competing customs regimes and no border. Impossible.”
Thats funny because we had EXACTLY that from 1923 until 1973 when we both joined the EEC
June 15, 2018
“Just a sad fantasy…”
Like… had we voted Remain we now wouldn’t be facing membership of a Germanic EU superstate replete with army, single currency, impoverished southern regions, Merkel immigration, euro …fantasy !
June 15, 2018
I bet we would have won Eurovision if we’d voted Remain though. They really are that petty.
June 15, 2018
I want to see a new PM. A politician with a moral soul and a sincere heart. I don’t want a PM who is a liberal left, political animal
I want to see a new PM that is almost viscerally determined to get us out of the EU.
This new PM quite simply must stand up and say ‘we are leaving the EU’.
We can work with all European nations across many areas but there’s no need to live in each others back-pockets
A FTA with a non-EU nation will be evidence proof that the UK has left the EU. If a FTA is not forthcoming it will mean we are still a member of the EU
June 15, 2018
Duncan,
The UK Government should already be getting trade agreements in place as the EU has reneged on it’s treaty obligations by cutting the UK out of existing contracts whilst we are still a member.
This has been going on in many sectors since the day after the referendum…
June 15, 2018
Duncan
To your first three comments surely the answer is don’t we all?
We know what we voted for but the fly in the ointment and always has been is the PM and her Chancellor.
June 15, 2018
Not necessarily in that order.
June 16, 2018
Duncan, Mrs May is a technocrat by nature and a supra-nationalist by belief and practice. If she and her government are not replaced by a Brexit led government in time for the September EU summit, UK’s vassalage will be be extended for at least a generation. The problem is that she actually does not believe there is much wrong with that. I mean what is wrong with EU government?
June 16, 2018
Viscerally determined, eh?
You mean, in the face of all the evidence, no matter how much it hurts?
Will it hurt you, Duncan? Are you retired? Do you live near Lord Lawson?
June 15, 2018
Like all of us out here, you’ll remain (no pun intended) in the dark then. Mrs May hasn’t got a clue ………………………………………..
June 15, 2018
Certainly re six and our place in the world,both Mrs May and Boris will have to go from their current positions if we are to make any impact other than as a laughing stock.I can’t remember any PM at any time in our past having less clout than TM-she doesn’t seem to have influence with anybody,not even minor countries.
June 15, 2018
āThe Prime Minister tells us the government is committed to Brexit and wishes to deliver the benefits it can bring. That is good news.ā
For me the jury is still out on this. It is a question of trust.
I would be happy with just one promise. No deal is better than a bad deal.
June 15, 2018
Peter, All deals with the EU are bad since the EU won’t deal unless we compromise our independence. But we didn’t vote Leave to remain a vassal. So the WTO deal is the best deal.
And I want to see evidence of the work that government is doing to implement the WTO deal before I believe Mrs May. She has to put up or shut up, because time is running out.
June 16, 2018
There is no WTO deal. We have to throw ourselves into a negotiation with over a hundred other nations. A decision to follow WTO rules would be ridiculous, as it would not solve the Irish border problem and would oblige us to impose the same tariffs on everyone. So we would then be a vassal state of many competing countries, and not a voting partner of the most powerful trading bloc on the planet. Why would that conceivably be good?
June 17, 2018
You are wrong
WTO is a charter of pre negotiated rules and suggested tariffs.
You as a member nation agree to follow these rules.
Have you ever actually ever run a company that exports?
June 18, 2018
No, I haven’t. Do you have any answer to the Irish border problem? Isn’t it better to be a powerful member of the most powerful trading bloc there is, rather than a vassal state of hundreds of other countries in the WTO?
June 19, 2018
perebois
There have been a few suggestions on the EU’s problem with its border with Northen Ireland but as the EU is run by a bunch of intransigent old duffers they can’t find a solution. By the way the problem with the border lays entirely with the EU, the UK is happy to have the same type of border since we implemented the Common Travel Area in 1923
Here’s someone that knows
There is a technical solution to keeping an open border in Ireland after Brexit, a customs expert has suggested.
Lars Karlsson, a former senior officer in Swedish customs, was giving evidence to the Commons Brexit committee.
The elements of a “smart border” would make it possible to have no physical infrastructure at the frontier, he said.
When will you remainers finally learn that the EU internal market in goods is NOT a powerful trading block, its a customs union, its a protection racket. I’ve told you before and you ignored it the UK economy is 80% services and there is NO “single market” in services.
June 15, 2018
Agree with what you say, but can you explain the snp all we keep hearing from them is they want independence and that powers will be taken from them , how can that be when they donāt have it to start with, are people in the snp thick or what , my understanding is that when were out of the dreaded Eu the British government will be able to return powers back to Scotland, or but wait a minute wouldnāt they give that back to Brussels if they stayed in the the dreaded Eu Muppets
June 15, 2018
It would appear an acceptable shopping list, let’s hope it can be achieved. Standing in its way are those so called conservatives who would have none of Brexit. Though the Conservative party is a broad church, can it afford to give voice to a few heretics. Heretics who are defying the people and every vote that has been passed by the HoC on the subject since June 2016. A defiance they sell as a benefit which in fact is black propaganda.
June 15, 2018
I believe an “endless loop” or “infinite loop” are terms in computer-speak for a piece of coding that does not possess a functional exit so that it repeats indefinitely.Why do I think this applies to Remoaners discussing Brexit in Parliament? Why do I think this applies to Remoaners discussing Brexit in Parliament?Why do I think this applies to Remoaners discussing Brexit in Parliament?…
June 15, 2018
āI look forward to early news from the government on the following.ā
As would the 17,410,742 who voted leave.
Unfortunately all we are hearing is waffle and negative news.
June 15, 2018
Gary C
Correct
June 15, 2018
Brexit is a unique policy. Never before have the people told government what to do. Having accepted the brief, a courteous leader would be anxious to report regularly and directly to us on how itās going. Not, apparently, this one.
When did we last see Mrs May on the box to give us all a sitrep on the task we gave her? If I had a solicitor who treated me as this government treats its masters, Iād sack him.
June 16, 2018
What is your healing message to the slightly smaller number of voters who voted to stay in the EU?
Incidentally, the number of people actually now wanting to stay in the EU exceeds the number of people who voted to leave. Leavers are now in a minority, and can look forward to getting less and less numerous, and less and less influential.
June 17, 2018
Other polls not in the Guardian say the opposite and another showed over 70% wanted the go to get on with it and leave.
June 18, 2018
I suspect that seventy per cent are very bored with Brexit and would really dislike another EU Brexit campaign. I would be in that number, I must say. But if there was another referendum, I would certainly take part, and would certainly vote to stay in.
Are you in favour of another referendum? Just to make sure? You wouldn’t want to pull the wool over a lot of people’s eyes, lie to them, win their votes illicitly, and then ram through an illegitimate policy decision against the national interest, would you? Just so a few rich people could keep their tax haven secrets to themselves?
June 19, 2018
perebois
If there is another referendum then I would expect the recommendations of the remainers to be firmly taken into account
The referendum must be agreed to be binding
The question would be should we remain outside the EU or should we join a federal EU
As per the demand you would need a vote of 70% or more voting in favour of joining the EU
Do you think you would win , using your own rules?
June 17, 2018
perebois
Good and fair question
In order to answer it first I’d have to know why and what benefit the remainers saw by being in the EU and as they have never told us its a bit difficult to come up with a solution. All the arguments given are based on project fear ( i.e. we will all die if we aren’t a member) or some irrational belief that the single market is some kind of panacea .
Leaving aside the irrational fears what does that leave us with ?
The single market. So if remainers main concern is about being part of a single market then that is very easily fixable.
A single market is a Free Trade Agreement between the EU and the UK with mutual standards recognition agreement…. There you go problem solved
Any other reason that you want to stay in the EU?
June 21, 2018
Libertarian,
If you knew your lecture about the free trade zone you would know it entails much more than that , but you don’t
June 22, 2018
hans
A Free Trade Zone is a very simple thing, it might confuse you but its doesn’t confuse me
June 15, 2018
In addition, I want to see a full list of ‘commitments’, plus its costs, of every EU ‘agency’ that May seems eager to participate in. There seem to be quite a few that are cover for keeping us under the control of Brussels. Whether what I read is true or not, it is worrying that she’s signing us up with their military (wasn’t there in the first place), legal as in EAW etc, Erasmus+ the indoctrination that we benefit little on. We seem to be ‘funding’ various areas that we have no obligation to.
A list would be a good starting point for a cost/benefit analysis. For those who are unaware of these many ‘non-contribution’, ie back door funding, a lot can be found here http://facts4eu.org/news_jun_2018.shtml#fin
June 15, 2018
@Annette
It would be a good idea if our Brexit dept would make these issues more transparent.
I might take some wind out of Soubry’s sails.
It’s a shame that the BBC lacks the integrity to report anything that would in any way support the case for Brexit.
June 15, 2018
Well said. Questions must be asked and answered.
June 15, 2018
Facts4eu.org is reporting that …….. Mz Mogherini now has 30bn E to spend on her army, including 10 bn off the books. Perhaps she counting on the Ā£39bn promised by her friends in Whitehall. She will be able to use the satellites we helped to make and paid for but she doesn’t want us using them, as we are a security risk. It is difficult to work out who is friends with who.
June 15, 2018
Yes Stred, that’s just “childish” behaviour from the EU.
June 15, 2018
I too read, with interest, the Facts4eu output, but they seem to ignore the obvious; ALL such expenditures are with prior approval from Berlin. It is, after all, mostly German money, plus some of ours. Junker, Mogherini and others are mere puppets in the German plan for control of Europe. Why else would they keep funding it? Evidence, if you care to look its everywhere; Selmyer, Greece bailout – who made the decisions, where is the ECB based, etc. Begs the question, why waste time talking to the monkey in Brussels when the organ-grinder is in Berlin!
June 15, 2018
Stred, The EU is positively not our friend, and never has been. The UK is just a cash cow for the EU, in the same way England was a cash cow for the Norman kings.
June 15, 2018
Surely Nick, when William beat Harold at Hastings, the Normans moved to England and used France as their cash cow.
June 16, 2018
Once he became king Richard I was hardly ever in England, maybe six months in total, and said he would be happy to sell London, and none of his body parts were buried in English soil … so I have no idea why we have a statue of him outside Parliament, but still I would not have it removed, if for no other reason than that its presence prompts the interesting question of why on earth it was put there …
June 15, 2018
āShe [Ms Mogherini] will be able to use the satellites we helped to make and paid for but she doesnāt want us using them, as we are a security risk. It is difficult to work out who is friends with who.ā
Exactly.
I am glad the EU is taking the stance they are with Galileo as for our future security we should be developing our own GPS system rather than sharing one with an organisation that will be an enormous security risk with 27 (soon to be 34+) countries and the possibility of being excluded from the system at any moment.
June 15, 2018
Agree totally except the tax increase to fund an increase to the NHS. Tories claim to be the party of low taxes, yet the tax freedom gets further and further away.
June 15, 2018
The notion of being āfair between EU & non-EU migrantsā self-distorts.
A nation should select the migrants it wants: good people who add value to the qualities of life. The ideal combination might emerge disproportionately from any source.
We do not eat kippers & custard together solely to be fair to two different suppliers simultaneously.
June 15, 2018
We’ve had this before as though we the English are under an obligation to let in people because they want to come here.
June 15, 2018
Allowing valuable workers we select for a fixed time period would be better. Accepting permanent residents, including their relations, solely on the basis of seeking a working person adds further problems to our already overpopulated island.
June 15, 2018
Do you think that they have the answer to all this? They may be arranging woolly outlines for some to interpret as they please.Flexibility is the name of the game in laws and treaties under the guise of certainty ; or perhaps I am wrong and it is all in the individuals perception.Sometimes I read comments on this site and another responds , however to me the response isn’t in line with what the original blogger intended. Is this site a microcosm of the confusion out there?
June 15, 2018
Mrs May rarely speaks of the benefits of Brexit. She merely says when pressed, it is the duty of government to follow through the result of the Referendum vote. She is a bit like a Churchill who says” I know our people would like a better solution to having their heads blown off by the Luftwaffe and want more control of that not happening. We are going to go for the best possible deal with Mr Hitler in this respect, eventually.
June 15, 2018
I hope you get your wish JR, so do most of the great UK public.
We voted to leave the EU because we wanted to be in control of our own affairs, unfortunately the fiasco by many members in The HoC and HoL recently, have shown we need to elect more sensible people first, who have exactly those views, not a bunch of time wasters who fail to see the bigger picture with a positive vision.
June 15, 2018
Their ‘failure to see the bigger picture’ may be something to do with blinkered self-interest rather than the lack of a positive vision for our country.
June 15, 2018
All sensible questions, and can there be anybody who expects you to get a clear answer, or any answer to them? It is becoming increasingly apparent that we are in effect to remain in the EU, but with no votes. This is because it is clear to the EU that the U.K. are not serious about no deal being better than a bad deal, and are making no preparations for no deal. The tests will be: Have we been able to avoid paying c Ā£12bn pa to the EU for āmarket accessā? Can we control immigration also from EU countries if we want? Can we run an independent trade policy? Have we escaped from an obligation to incorporate all EU laws and regs? If the answer to all questions is, effectively, no, we havenāt left the EU. Probably there will be a few last minute cosmetic concessions so Mrs May can claim Brexit means Brexit etc, just as Mr Cameron was able to claim, absurdly, that we were voting to stay in a āreformed EUā due to the trivial concessions he had managed to agree.
What to do given only a few dozen MPs believe in the WTO option and the govt clearly donāt? I think the only solution is another referendum where the WTO option is one of two – or perhaps three – choices. Only if there is the clear threat of walking away and going to WTO rules will the EU agree to a deal which enables answers to JRās questions above. Only the people can now oblige the govt to do this.
June 15, 2018
Richard1, Yes, it looks like the only EU policy we will definitely leave (I stand to be corrected) by April 2019 is the CAP. Absolutely everything else from money, to laws, to borders, to the CFP, to trade, to security, to the EU army, etc, etc, Mrs May has capitulated on.
Trust has gone. Politicians’ waffle doesn’t hack it any more. I will only believe evidence, and so far we have none (that supports Mrs May). Moreover, conceding a “second” referendum when the first (2016) is not obeyed will just lead to constitutional chaos.
June 15, 2018
Richard. The problem with yet another expensive and time consuming referendum is that if the result is not to parliaments liking once again we will just go through all the crap we’ve just endured once more. We’ve had the vote and now we want what we voted for. Some of us who cared to pay attention at the time know what that is. OUT.
June 16, 2018
Which are these WTO rules that a lot of people on Mr Redwood’s blog keep talking about? Are these the rules that oblige us to impose tariffs indiscriminately and insist on a hard border in Northern Ireland?
June 17, 2018
WTO rules are a a list of pre agreed tariffs.
Most are single figure percentages.
They work well for over 90% of all world trade.
Even the EU uses their system for trade.
I have not seen anything from WTO demanding a hard border in NI.
June 18, 2018
Check this out, from Channel Four …
‘If the UK defaults to WTO rules (using copied-and-pasted versions of the EUās tariffs in the short term), the EU would still have to maintain its side of the border. That would require check goods coming into Ireland from the UK.
‘Thatās because the EUās existence as a free trade area depends on its ability to demonstrate to the WTO that it can control its external borders properly.’
Link:
https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-what-are-the-options-for-the-irish-border-after-brexit
June 20, 2018
perebois
I find it astonishing that people will keep arguing things that they clearly have no practical knowledge of.
Customs and border controls for the shipping of goods around the world has been automated for many years. The “paperwork” and clearances are completed and checked before anything even moves.
The Customs Handling of Import and Export Freight (CHIEF) system records the declaration to Customs of goods by land, air and sea. It allows importers, exporters and freight forwarders to complete customs information electronically, and automatically checks for entry errors. CHIEF connects with five Community System Providers (CSPs); these are independent trade systems that directly serve hundreds of carriers, transit sheds and freight forwarders. CSPs record and track the movement of goods within ports and airports, enabling them to operate more efficiently. CHIEF is also part of HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) risk assessment process, it identifies which consignments, or goods within a consignment, will need to be physically examined, or have their documentation examined. This gives legitimate goods, and those deemed to be a low-level risk, faster passage when they are directly imported from non-EU countries, or exported to them from the UK
The TIR System streamlines procedures at borders, reducing the administrative burden for customs authorities and for transport and logistics companies. It cuts border waiting times significantly, saving time and money.
TIR authorised operators can move goods quickly across multiple customs territories, under customs control, using a single guarantee. Harmonised systems and data exchange tools mean that operators only need to submit their declaration data once for the entire transit movement.
Each TIR transport from start to end of the journey is monitored on-line, so goods can be traced and secured while in transit.
Authorised operators
Over 34,000 transport and logistics companies worldwide use TIR to quickly and reliably move goods across international borders.
The World Bank estimate that containers of goods leaving & entering the UK from NON EU countries takes approx 5 secs per container
The EU is NOT a free trade area its a CUSTOMS UNION , how many more times are you going to make this mistake?
June 15, 2018
A few inches off-topic, the solution to the “meaningful vote” (MV) question seems clear to me although Remainers may see it differently.
The referendum decision was final in the sense that Parliament had voted 6 to 1 that the
British public should make the decision to Remain or Leave although there “remains” disagreement as to whether the decision includes a prescription in relation to the Customs
Union and Single market. However, even Remain supporting MP’s have to accept that the UK public did vote to leave.
Therefore, the solution to the MV question resides in separating the two issues:
1. Decision to Leave
2. Decision on relationship after leaving.
In the event of there being an absence of overlap between the sphere of options that the UKG would be prepared to accept and those the EU would agree to clearly a NO DEAL outcome must follow.
Therefore, in the event that the Government must announce that No Deal can be achieved
the UK would leave the EU without a Deal.
However, HMG would agree that after we leave, Parliament would be given the opportunity to vote on any improved arrangement that the HMG had negotiated.
This approach would have the additional benefit that it would transfer pressure onto the EU to act in a reasonable way.
June 15, 2018
Robert, some useful ideas there.
The problem I have with whether it’s the Government that makes the decision on Good/Bad/No deal or Parliament does this mean that the “negotiators” hands are too tied in the eyes of the EU, thus only ending up with a Bad deal that’s worse than No deal?
I don’t know, but certainly the shrieks from Soubry etc. indicates that they would prefer a Bad deal under all circumstances.
June 16, 2018
“No deal” is a misnomer.
What no deal really means is leaving to trade via WTO rules, which seems to be OK for the 160 plus nations not in the EU.
June 16, 2018
We would have to negotiate with the WTO and there are over a hundred countries that could stick their oar in. But there are hardly no countries at all that only use unadorned WTO rules unsupplemented by a trade bloc or deal with other countries.
June 17, 2018
You are wrong.
We apply and use standard WTO rules.
We don’t have to negotiate with the WTO
There are loads of counties that trade with each other without any formal trade deal between them.
Trade just carries on regardless.
June 18, 2018
Would you like to post a list of countries that use the unadorned WTO rules? There are at most three tiny countries that do this, and none of them does a lot of exporting. It won’t take you long.
We most certainly would have to negotiate our own place on the WTO, and would have virtually no influence on concocting the rules. Trade carries on within an infrastructure of international rules. There is no getting away from these rules, no matter how exceptional and unique and great and majestic the UK remains.
June 20, 2018
perebois
The United Kingdom has been a WTO member since 1 January 1995 and a member of GATT since 1 January 1948
There are currently as of 2016 164 countries who belong to WTO would you really like me to list them all ?
Before commenting any more why dont you actually go and find out what the WTO is, how it works and why so many countries use it
https://www.wto.org/index.htm
June 15, 2018
Robert Lewy, The problem comes with your “2. Decision on relationship after leaving”. Remains think it gives them carte-blanche to impose their half-in/half-out position. Since we did decide to Leave, no relationship that involves any degree of EU general control over the UK is possible. At least for another 46 years anyway.
June 15, 2018
NickC
The dynamics of the situation would prevent the problem you refer to.
We can fully expect Barnier to ratchet up the pressure with the ultimate result that UKG declares no deal AND LEAVES.
However, I would suggest that this would not prevent negotiation from continuing .
The beauty of the position would be that the Government would not be bound by Parliament’s preference and they could carry on negotiating until we get a deal which looks good without any problem with time limits.
Meanwhile we can be confident that German car manufacturers and French farmers will remind Barnier ( via their Governments) that time is of the essence and that meaningful offers will emerge from EU side.
June 15, 2018
Dear Mr Redwood,
Please can you clarify – whoās the PM at the minute? Is it May or Grieve? Itās very hard to tell from where Iām sitting. Thanks.
June 15, 2018
Dave M
Is it just me but the majority of the Tory members in Westminster that are causing so much mayhem seem to be those that have been passed over or moved on.
To me they are neither use or ornament , that is maybe why the BBC use them all the time
June 15, 2018
“Dear Mr Redwood,
Please can you clarify ā whoās the PM at the minute? Is it May or Grieve? Itās very hard to tell from where Iām sitting. Thanks.”
——————————————————————————————–
While some may consider your question sarcastic I also find it one requiring an answer.
The voice of the disruptive few is heard loudly every day. Where is the voice for the majority?
The majority, remember those that voted to leave, remember those that put their trust in the Conservative party to deliver on the referendum result, remember ‘Brexit means Brexit’.
The silence is deafening, one thing our government can be sure of is we will not forget.
June 15, 2018
It was meant to be slightly sarcastic, but had I used āin chargeā rather than āPMā it could easily have been a genuine question!
June 15, 2018
Indeed plus, seventh we need a sensible points based immigration system that does discriminate against the non EU engineer or scientist and in favour of an unemployed, unqualified, serial criminal from an EU country. But May has ruled this out.
Eighth we need a sensible criminal justice system that had some deterrent element to it and police who occasionally do something about crime.
Ninth we need to make people who are capable of working do so.
Tenth we need relaxation of the planning to get more houses.
Eleventh we need cheap energy and withdrawal from the absurd Paris Accord and repeal of the climate charge act.
Basically we need a PM to do almost the compete opposite of her current socialist, high tax, greencrap, pro EU lunacy.
We also need some more sensible judges at UK supreme court. Or they need better guidance from clear legislation. The ruling on the self employed Pimlico Plumber is hugely damaging to productivity, the gig economy, efficiency, income levels and the gig economy. As was their one on tribunal fees. But doubtless it was cheered on by May and Hammond (and of course the essentially parasitic legal profession) who clearly hate the efficient system of self employment. This we can see from the moronic Taylor review of modern working practices. Why on earth would a “Tory” PM engage such a lefty dope like Taylor to do such a report?
The real agenda from Hammond and May is of course to raise taxes by the back door but it will not do this. It just damaged the tax base and kills efficiency. Easy hire and fire is what is needed. We have taxes that are the highest for 40 years under the economic illiterate P Hammond. They are well beyond the point where they kill the tax base and raise less revenue (for government to largely waste) in the end.
If Judges make the laws up as they go along, as they clearly do in the UK, then we do not live in a democracy. This even if we do escape the anti-democratic EU.
June 15, 2018
Lifelogic, And twelfth, we need to insist, and make work, a policy of strong secularism where personal religious belief is tolerated, but no religion or religious adherents can get away with trashing our laws, customs and culture, consequent upon inverted racism, political correctness or fear.
June 15, 2018
Indeed religion should be something you do in you own time if you feel you must! It should be kept out of schools and government.
June 15, 2018
Let’s hope it keeps fine for you John. We have a PM who says one thing then does diametrically opposite.
Grieve is openly consorting with Blair and Soros whilst plotting to bring down the government.
It seems we have a majority for staying in the EU despite the voters wishing otherwise.
June 15, 2018
The Prime Minister is committed to Brexit or so she says. Trouble is she is far too weak to deliver it.
June 15, 2018
We must act now to prevent another Grenfell says the Telegraph editorial today.
Well do not wrap tall towers in highly flammable, green crap religion, insulated panels and employ sensible fire commanders who understand that when a fire is very clearly out of control (clear after less than 20 minutes) on the outside of a building you get everyone out while the stair are still relatively clear and usable.
It is hardly rocket science and is nothing whatever to do with divisions between rich and poor as the BBC and the lefty loons would like to reinvent it.
June 15, 2018
It seems to be clear that the reason there was such loss of life at Grenfell Tower was 1) the fire brigade told people to stay in the building instead of getting out which seems extraordinary under any circs and 2) the building was clad in flammable material to assist with combating climate change pursuant to the Climate Change Act 2008. All the rest is guff. Time for those Labour politicians such as Messrs Corbyn, McDonnell and Lammy to apologise for their disgraceful attempts to score irrelevant political points out of the tragedy.
June 15, 2018
Exactly either one would have almost certainly saved all of these lives.
Perhaps abandon the inquiry and spend the money on productive things instead of expensive largely parasitic lawyers.
June 17, 2018
Richard1
It also appears likely that there were far more people living there than had been 1) Officially declared 2) That the space could actually hold safely
June 15, 2018
It’s a bit of a mystery about this ‘divisions between rich and poor’ popping up. There are just as many private tower blocks/residences/offices covered in this material aren’t there? It wasn’t a banned material otherwise it wouldn’t have been put on any of them, they must have had certificates to say they were safe!! Who issued those?
The people in Grenfell were living in the most beautiful and expensive areas of London, they were provided with central locations that children born in this Country couldn’t even get on the housing register to obtain. What is the alternative to high density lower cost housing in expensive Borough’s – Ghettos – would the BBC and lefty loons really prefer that?! No! they wouldn’t, these people would no sooner move out of Central London and go to mix with other poor people as pay full private rents that our children are expected to cough up out of their diminishing net pay (after graduation taxes, 9% or 15% if they really stretched themselves on to a Masters course) if they want to access the best jobs.
Who insured this building? Why didn’t they check on the safety of the building? Do the majority in this Country have building and contents insurance or not? If you are in housing association/Council properties does the Council self-insure their housing stock or do they use insurance companies like the rest of us or are tenants supposed to have their own insurance?
June 15, 2018
Indeed.
June 15, 2018
And, following the latest report by fire experts, put the same communal alarm system in high rise block that we have to in low rise flat and hotels. Apparently, they don’t in case people decide to leave their flats when there is a fire and don’t follow fire brigade advice that already resulted in deaths in the S.London fire a few years ago.
And fitting fire doors that close and windows that are fire protected in accordance with the 160 pages of building regulations would help.
June 15, 2018
Even remainers like JEREMY WARNER seem to realise what a disaster May’s Brexit in name only will be. But that it seems is what we are to get.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/14/even-remain Thaer-can-see-politically-compromised-brexit-heading/
June 15, 2018
Fine words Dr Redwood but has anybody the Parliamentary guts to tell the PM
June 15, 2018
Off topic…
With a crisis on the High Street, what do Reading Council do…double the cost of parking in Council owned car parks – their reason is “to encourage the use of Park & Ride”.
They seem to be living in a parallel universe…paid for by business rates.
June 15, 2018
Know-dice
Agreed, Parking in Reading is already more costly than parking in the central car park in Monte Carlo.
The shops are in trouble, so we will double the cost of parking.
Not really joined up thinking is it !
June 15, 2018
Parking in Reading is mainly the responsibility of the private company NCP.
Anyone with a concessionary pass (available for free to OAPs) pays Ā£1 for the park and ride from Winnersh Triangle, Mereoak. It is free from the Madejski Stadium parking for OAPs. Buses are running every 20mn at peak times, and every 45 mn between 9h30 and 15h30. Buses will stop on St Mary’s Butts, Broad Street, and at the station.
Pretty good service. The Oxford model has obviously been studied with attention.
But if you are rich/stupid enough to pay between Ā£2.50 and Ā£3.50/hour for parking in the very centre of town, NCP will take that from you with absolute delight.
June 17, 2018
But if you do not have a concessionary pass it is Ā£4 – 4.70 per adult depending on time. So, hardly “stupid enough” if you can’t avoid things.
The reasons to visit Reading town centre just keep on coming. It would appear cheaper to go to Bracknell or Basingstoke
June 17, 2018
That should read “The reasons to NOT visit Reading town centre ..”
June 15, 2018
The Government through its neglect is losing the propaganda war that has been in progress for some while waged by quislings and remoaners to confuse and demoralize.
June 15, 2018
I am not sure that it is just through neglect. When the Department for Exiting the European Union was set up the senior civil servant was originally Olly Robbins – his portrait appeared on the website where there is now one of Philip Rycroft – and maybe it was his deliberate advice to David Davis that the department should not divert effort into rebutting anti-Brexit propaganda. Anyway the result has been disastrous, silly myths which should have been crushed long ago are still being circulated and no doubt are having an effect on how the votes go in Parliament.
June 15, 2018
The first expenditure needs to be a joint Satellite navigation system with Japan and Australia which we could also invite all Commonwealth countries to participate in ( largely without the smaller countries incurring any costs ) .
That decision needs to be made this week and the EU told that we will be withdrawing from their Galileo vanity project and will be deducting every pound we have invested in it from the Ā£39bn Mrs May foolishly agreed to pay them – if, of course, we get a trade deal that satisfies us.
We won’t of course, because Mrs May is allowing the EU to put us on the back foot at every turn and as a result she is making us look weak and indecisive, enthusiastically aided and abetted by Corbyn’s Labour Party.
It’s about time we stood up and took the lead in some – any – aspect of these so-called negotiations.
I despair at how she has allowed this to go.
June 15, 2018
On the local radio this morning. A Malaysian man who came here and started two businesses is set to be deported, something to do with his visa application and not enough cash in his account. Meanwhile, in the same city, thousands who came here with nothing are handed everything on the taxpayer. That group is mainly unemployable, known for ATM crime in Europe, cause social problems ( as they did before they moved here from Europe laughing their heads off at their luck getting a free life).
The one who employs people here and isn’t a drain on resources is set to be got rid of.
The ones who come here and cost us millions a year are waved in.
I’m not even speechless anymore.
June 15, 2018
Bigneil. Is there anyone in government at the moment with an ounce of common sense? Can they even think for themselves? If the average Joe Bloggs can think these things through then why are they so incapable?
June 15, 2018
All sensible things that an independent sovereign nation should do. The sooner we get on with it the better. We wait in hope that Mrs May’s deeds match her rhetoric.
Oh, many happy returns of the day Mr Redwood. Thanks for all of your efforts on our behalf.
June 15, 2018
Happy birthday John, and many happy returns!
Thanks for all your hard work, and this blog.
June 15, 2018
So Parliament is prepared to risk alienating 17.4m UK voters who voted “Leave”.
Maybe a new Party, with credible leadership, will appear between now and the next General Election so as to right any wrongs.
June 15, 2018
People like Dominic Grieve, Anna Soubrey and Chucka Ummuna are deliberately working against British interests by trying to bind the hands of our Brexit negotiators.
Their fellow conspirator Prof AC Grayling is on camera saying to Guy Verhofstadt: āWhat would help the remain movement in the UK would be if the EU is very, very tough and uncompromising on a deal.ā
These people should stop pretending that they talk for Britain, they clearly don’t. What would have happened to people like this if they had been caught collaborating with Germany in 1940?
Mrs May should have no truck with them.
June 15, 2018
Bob, May is a Remainer, as evidenced by her behaviour and her record since June 2016. She should be replaced and swiftly with a Brexiter MP utterly committed to upholding democracy. What an extraordinary thing to have to write that we need someone committed to upholding democracy. However, it seems it has come to that and very few MPs seem to actually believe in democracy or upholding it. It seems they do like holding onto power though and maintaining the apparently Marxist ideology of the EU, and seem willing to sacrifice our country (and incidentally the Cons party) in order to do that.
June 15, 2018
Not only a remainer but a dim socialist. Pc, greencrap pushing dope too. NASTY too with her go home illegal migrant vans she though would win her votes.
June 15, 2018
I loved seeing A C Grayling on Andrew Neill’s programme last night-the hyper Bourbon of Remain-it took all Mr Neill’s skills to shut him up.
Here’s an idea for any entrepreneurs out there eager to do their bit to revive British manufacturing-a production line for tumbrils!
June 15, 2018
Indeed at least he was open and honest but totally misguided and with total contemp for the electorate.
June 15, 2018
John,
Very interesting point of view, but based on a lot of assumptions about further growth that are difficult to substantiate and prove, as you must have assumed everything else being equal with the 0.6% growth at least, you are forecasting.
I am not sure it will hold water?
June 15, 2018
Hans, Spending our money in the UK, rather than giving it away to hostile foreigners will boost our well being. You need to learn the difference between turnover and profit.
June 15, 2018
NickC,
I asked some simple questions and you start making assumptions on profit and turnover on the government budget.
I think your comments on a few questions , speak for themselves so I will leave the reading to the audience.
Have good weekend
June 15, 2018
Why does the government assume that the money saved following Brexit has to be spent elsewhere? Why can’t we have our taxes reduced instead?
June 15, 2018
The NHS doesn’t simply need more money, it needs reform. In its present state it is a bottomless pit.
June 15, 2018
The money saved should not be ‘spent’
We have the biggest National Debt as a proportion of GDP in of any major country in the world and are adding to it at the rate of Ā£40 Billion or so a year. Faster than Italy or Greece.
The money should go to reducing that annual borrowing to a ‘mere’ Ā£27 Billion a year or so, so as to show at least some hint of respect to generations yet to come, who have to pay the interest on it forever.
Spending the money at home does not reduce the balance of payments deficit. The money eventually gets circulated in the economy in the form of wages, dividends investment etc exactly the same way as other money does. And if the deficit did fall slightly, the Pound would rise in value and it would reassert itself again.
It’s surely right that UK fishermen should have priority access to UK waters (although we can sell licences to foreigners for some of the rights, like we do with oil), but there’s no reason why the fish should all be consumed in the UK. The fishermen can land it elsewhere and export it. Just like we do with oil etc.
The best tax cut we can bring in, is Corporation Tax to entice businesses here from the EU. The cost would be minimal or even negative.
We might even cut it lower still for businesses based in Northern Ireland and then see how keen the EU, and the ROI really are on an ‘open border’.
Migrants should be allowed to come here from wherever they like on temporary work visas provided they never claim any benefits, have the skills that we want, and they make a significant positive net contribution to the public finances and the economy.
June 15, 2018
The NI lower corp. tax idea is good – in fact isn’t that exactly why the EU is trying to force us to align NI economically with the RoI, to prevent such competition? That’s what’s scaring them.
All it needs is for May to say, ‘Sorry, we’ve Art. 49 of the agreement of Dec. 8th was based on the assumption that the EU would be reasonable on agreeing sensible proposals for a frictionless border, but their objections to all tech solutions are completely unreasonable, so we’re striking out that clause…Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, and all that.’
June 15, 2018
‘Sorry,
we’veArt. 49…’ etc.June 15, 2018
All very commendable aspirations JR when government has the time and space and then surely the way to achieve all of this is first of all to have a government with a majority in the House.. however this government has still a long way to go in arguing it’s way out of the EU before getting to grips with future policy direction- sadly because of brexit internal wrangling within the Tory party itself the very energy of government business has become dysfunctional- and until we get that sorted we are going nowhere.
Despite what the EU say- they have already decided that a no deal is best for them as being in their best interests- wanna bet?- thinking is there has been too much trouble with UK..so we will have much more time to ourselves after March next to speculate on the future direction- but better not wait too long otherwise we’ll have Corbyn and McDonnell in place
June 15, 2018
First of all, you have to cross the finishing line.
June 15, 2018
1. Brexit will not save money. The bill is Ā£39bn and weāll be paying it til the 2060s.
2. Most of the fish we eat is imported. Most of what we catch is exported to the EU.
3. Most Brexit backers did not vote Leave to allow more Indians and Africans in.
4. It is not up to the Trade Dept. It is up to the other countries involved. Whatās in it for them?
5. This may save people a few pounds but it will not make up for their Brexit losses.
6. Brexit reduces our voice in the world. In the EU we punch above our weight.
June 15, 2018
@Andy
1. Then let’s take the Ā£39 billion off of the table.
2. After being caught by continental trawlers in UK waters.
3. They voted for managed immigration regardless of where they were born.
4. Trade with the worlds 5th largest economy.
5. Says a remoaner.
6. Rubbish.
June 15, 2018
Bob,
YOur interevention on number 5 is a bit shaking and weak I am sure you can do better than that, if not, too bad
June 16, 2018
Bob. All your remarks are off the peg, and all are absurd and, frankly, all are ignorant.
Which independent forecasts have you seen that show the UK will be better off as a result of Brexit?
What is your solution to the Irish border?
June 17, 2018
perebois
Read all the forecasts from Economists for free trade
https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com
“The UK can emerge from Brexit in a far better position than it is now” Quoted headline UK Food Manufacturers Association
“Britain will be far better off outside the single market” John Mills founder of consumer goods giant JML
Bank of England research by Professor Steve Nickell estimated that with the current number of EU unskilled immigrants unskilled wages are two per cent lower than they would be otherwise
Irish border easily solvable with technology , the CTA has been in place since 1923 , the EU are using it a s a political football which is disgraceful
June 15, 2018
Good summary, Andy but most Brexiters voted because they think they can re-create the golden days of the Empire.
Good luck with that.
June 15, 2018
Are we not Little Englanders then ?
June 16, 2018
Bullseye!
June 15, 2018
Tabulazero, I’ve not met a single Leave voter who voted to exit the EU “because they think they can re-create the golden days of the Empire”. Far from it, there was admiration for the many countries who left the British Empire, and a desire to emulate them.
June 15, 2018
A sweeping statement, totally unqualified and without authority. Absolutely to be expected from an anti-Brexit voice. Most people alive today have no memory of Empire.
People voted to leave the EU for a multitude of reasons, as no doubt did those who voted to remain in the EU.
No one imagines there will be another British Empire, but the majority of people in the UK have friends and relatives in Commonwealth countries and I for one feel a sense of shame that they were abandoned so appallingly by the UK government when it decided to turn inwards towards the European continent for short term financial gain.
I can tell you exactly who our friends are in the world. Some may be in Europe but they aināt in Brussels. If you had any knowledge of our history youād know that pan-European authorities have always sought to control the English. And we donāt like being controlled.
June 17, 2018
@DaveM – well said.
June 16, 2018
You’ve asked over 17 million voters?
Gosh Tabulazero you have been busy.
June 16, 2018
Tabulazero
Actually a lot of Brexiteers voted to leave because we can see the potential for the future
Its the EU who are empire building
Its the EU who are stuck in the past
Its the EU who have failed to negotiate big FTA’s
Its the EU who are trying to shut down the digital future
The UK is a service economy ( 80% of our trade ) we are world leaders in a number of technologies. The EU is trying desperately to shut down the digital future
Give me a list of leading EU digital companies…. wait let me save you the time There isn’t ONE, nothing, none , not a sausage.
The EU is a luddite backwater , supported by luddites, tin foil hat wearers like Grayling and Codswallop, and cry babies like Andy
Meanwhile a number of the Brexit supporters on this forum run businesses and we can see the huge potential to develop FTA’s that suit us ( not 28 random countries) , the huge potential for global trade and extending our connections without submitting to an undemocratic oligarchy run by a bunch of old, stale, out of touch has been politicians
Meanwhile we are all still waiting for you Remain types to post a list of positive reasons to be in a Federal EU
June 16, 2018
And if the list of continental European (start-up) tech companies is not good enough, as not leading enough, what about considering this: in a well known technological IT, the first listed UK company is Sophos in 19th position with the majority of companies in front of it from the US and a couple from China.
I would agree with you, the few continental Europeans are further down the list. But all the same nothing to crow about for the UK.
Then do you know that the number of new UK tech startup companies standing at some 15,000 at the beginning of 2016 has now gone down by roughly two-thirds? Given that a non-negligible number of them are started by young non-UK people a few years after finishing their MSc or PhD, what do you think such a drop is indicating?
June 17, 2018
hefner
Last year, British #tech businesses attracted $7.8bn of funding, almost double the amount received in 2016, compared to France and Germanyās combined total of $6bn
Improbable became one of the first British tech startups to be valued at over $1 billion in 2017
The number of tech startups in Britain has more than doubled since the EU referendum in June 2016, according to new research.
Analysis of Companies House data, by auditing firm RSM, showed the number of operating technology businesses reached 5,995 by the end of February 2017 ā 3,670 more companies than the figure recorded in the days after the Brexit vote.
Forbes Magazine
The number of technology start-ups launched in the UK last year (2017) rose by almost 60 per cent.
“Welcome to the future of business! Collectively employing over 2,000 staff with average turnover of Ā£1.64m, these are the UK’s hottest 100 start-ups 2017”
https://startups.co.uk/startups-100/news/startups-100-2017/
Silicon Valley investment into UK tech companies rose by 47pc last year to Ā£1.08bn
London is once again ranked World number 1 for Fin Tech
London’s fintech sector remains a hotbed of investment activity, capturing the lion’s share of a Ā£2.99 billion venture capital splurge on UK Fin tech firms.
The number of tech startups in Britain has more than doubled since the EU referendum in June 2016, according to new research.
London remains the dominant home of digital businesses in Britain. In the eight months following the referendum, 1,741 new firms were incorporated. According to Tech City UK, a tech startup is now founded every hour in the capital.
Further research has confirmed the UKās dependence on the ādigital economyā, as job creation in the tech sector grew at twice the rate of the wider economy in 2016 to create 85,500 new positions in 2016 alone.
June 15, 2018
Andy, Still having problems with your belief that the EU and DfID only costs each income tax payer Ā£1 per week? None of your other beliefs listed here are true either.
June 15, 2018
NickC,
How come you have certainly become so sure of your facts is this a new phenomena?
June 15, 2018
You can work it out for yourself.
Most of you donāt work anymore so wonāt have had an income tax bill recently but they now send them out with a neat little pie chart on the back.
It tells you where your income tax money goes. 1.1% on foreign aid, 0.7% on EU contributions.
Helpfully the government publishes a list of the amounts here too so you can check. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/how-public-spending-was-calculated-in-your-tax-summary/how-public-spending-was-calculated-in-your-tax-summary
Average earnings are around Ā£28,000 – on which you pay total income tax of around Ā£3250. 1.8% of that is Ā£58.50 a year – or just over Ā£1 per week.
That small contribution helps make us all wealthier and it saves dying kids in poorer countries. Be proud of yourself – itās something good you do that you didnāt know you were doing.
June 16, 2018
Andy
1. Pensions are taxed.
2. You are looking at just income tax. The many other taxes we also pay contribute towards the items you mention and govt borrowing.
June 15, 2018
The EU is in a right pickle. Whether by us going bust or by us leaving successfully it is losing a major contributor.
Mass immigration is the cause of anti EU upsurges throughout Europe.
June 15, 2018
EU membership as was ?
That’s over.
Which is it ? Your country or the EU, Andy ? This is the only choice you have now.
June 17, 2018
I wish I could be persuaded by these sort of arguments, but they do not even deserve a reply, it is all rather sad
June 20, 2018
hans
Whilst I agree about the “patriotism” argument being a bit naff , have you any comment on the recent poll in Denmark?
Apparently 55% of respondents would rather be in a Nordic Federation than the EU
June 21, 2018
there is no viability in a Nordic solution and it ahs been tried several times during history with no success, but I wold not expect you to know that either
June 24, 2018
hans
Your expectations are as bad as you knowledge about trade.
I didn’t say it hadn’t been tried, i didn’t say it would work , i didn’t say it was a good idea.
55% of Danes want to try it again as an alternative to the EU, its very simple , even you should be able to understand
June 15, 2018
As a comedian once said ” you’ll be lucky…..I said you’ll be lucky “
June 15, 2018
Why do remainers want to be stuck in the Political Construct of the EU which is falling apart.
The revolt against invasion by unlimited numbers of uneducated economic migrants from the third World is rapidly spreading within the EU. Populist Governments are taking over from the Liberal/Centrist Coalitions.
Chancellor Merkel started the invasion and then threw the problem at the lumbering bureaucratic organisation in Brussels. It tried throwing money at Turkey. It tried redistributing the migrants who sort to live in Germany and Northern Europe. They have failed to stem the invasion. Chancellor Merkel’s CDU is under threat of its partnership with the CSU breaking up over migration.
Why do the UN and politically correct Centrist Politicians not understand that the citizens of most European Countries do not want to become an ethnic Hodgepodge.
If the Brussels hegemony falls apart, the EEA and CU will cease to exist.
June 15, 2018
It’s an oxymoron to say that the monopoly issuer of the Ā£’s needs to save Ā£’s you know that John.
How many points do the BOE have ?
1. Can the scorekeeper run out of points ?
2. When the BOE award points to players with winning hands, where do those points come from?
3. When the scorekeeper subtracts points from players with losing hands, does the BOE have more points?
Do you understand the difference between being the scorekeeper and being the players?
June 15, 2018
Derek Henry, Go on, I’ll fall into the trap of responding to the loony who thinks the government can print whatever money it decides to spend. You’re the same type who insisted retail banks could create loadsa money whenever they wanted, until the 2008 bust showed they can’t.
The creation of money (“out of then air”) by the monopoly BoE is limited by the state of the economy – because our currency is a model of our economy. Any more issuance causes inflation as happened in Zimbabwe. The whole purpose of QE was to cause inflation to head off deflation, so that we had a recession rather than a depression.
June 16, 2018
The 2008 bust was caused by assets falling in value so that borrowing became unsupported. Northern Rock had a lending model that involved borrowing funds for lending ‘just in time’, but then banks stopped lending to other banks because none of them could truly believe in the securities they already held. Banks lost trust in each other. They could still print as much money as they liked, but they stopped doing so.
Also – years and years of money printing produced precisely no inflation at all.
So you are wrong.
June 17, 2018
That is strange synopsis of the 2008 banking crisis.
No mention of poor regulation in the UK and USA
No mention of USA mortgage securitisation failures.
No mention if Labour’s overspending and borrowing at the top of the cycle
The printing ie QE was a method of refinancing the banks that is why it did not cause inflation.
June 15, 2018
I think you need to educate and inform the likes of your parliamentary colleague, Antoinette Sandbach, because they seem not to comprehend what is a clear-cut case. I have never understood why a party that prides itself on fiscal responsibility and rectitude ever has such people in its number. Regrettably, the list is a long one.
Tad Davison
Cambridge
June 15, 2018
I do not know why people keep wanting the PM out only to be replaced by another remain PM.
Leave MPs do not have the numbers in parliament to vote in a leave PM.
Also calling for another election. who are you going to vote for, one of three main parties, UKIP, their national exes board has been taken over by the three main parties, that why founders of UKIP will not have anything to do with it or put any more money into it.
People can only vote for independent PMs and also the FREE PARLIAMENT movement which they refuse to do, even if you replace 20 MPs in the Tory party you will still have a remain party in parliament.
June 15, 2018
John, you will remember several times I told you the universal credit project was failing, gave some reasons, you reasonably replied you had been assured by ministers that all was well… Guess who has turned out to be correct…
June 15, 2018
You should be having a day off on your birthday!
Enjoy.
June 15, 2018
One of the main reasons for the sense of confliction that May exudes, is that our economic well-being after Brexit will depend on new domestic policies that will liberalise trade and stimulate the economy.
Yet May’s mindset is entirely EU – tax, mollycoddle, virtue-signal, impose the total control of the state while pretending to ‘care’ about the rights of ‘communities’.
You can take the girl out of the EU, but you can’t… etc.
June 15, 2018
āFirst, I want to know how all the money saved is going to be spent, and a sense of urgency in getting us out of financial commitments as soon as possible.ā
Mostly on recreating all the kind of agencies and services the EU renders for the wider British economy. The fancy snazzy new border infrastructure will not come cheapā¦ or on time if past experience is to be believed. Did I mention a Red, White and Blue Galileo ?
āSecond, I want to see our new fishing policy as we become an independent coastal state. We need a policy that is kinder to our fish and our fishermen, and which lands more the fish caught in the UK for UK consumption.ā
Since most of the fish caught by British trawlers is actually exported to the Single-Market where people actually consume fresh fish on a regular basisā¦ nothing will change very much until British people change their eating habits. A few ton of fish you cannot sell sitting in the back of a lorry is not a valuable commodity. Itās a health hazard.
āThird, I want to see a new migration and borders policy which is fair between EU and non EU migrants, and assists the government in hitting its targets for levels of migration.ā
EU immigration will drop, especially the qualified one, given the warm welcome that is Brexit, future economic prospects and where the Pound trade. Illegal immigration which historically ran a twice the EUās rate will continue unabated and uncontrolled as evidenced by all the people waiting around Calais.
“Fourth, I want to see the Trade Department roll over the current EU trade agreements with other countries into UK agreements ”
This will require the said “other countries” to agree to the transition. How do you propose to achieve that ? Send Dr Liam Fox to glare at them until they sign ? The said other countrues will of course negotiate something in exchange for their signature because they (like the EU) know that they have the UK over the barrel of a gun.
June 15, 2018
If Britain goes bust or if Britain leaves the EU successfully the EU loses one of its largest contributors.
Nothing to sneer about.
All caused by Merkel’s mad mass immigration policies. Disaffection throughout the wider EU too.
The EU is FINISHED.
June 16, 2018
The EU will outlive the UK.
June 15, 2018
āFifth I want to see tax cuts in areas where we cannot cut taxes at the moment, including the abolition of VAT on green products and domestic fuel.ā
Faced with the economic impact of Brexit, the Treasury will not lose an income stream.
āSixth I want to hear what our global agenda will be as we regain our vote and voice on a number of important international bodies.ā
The UKās voice, which was an important voice in a block of 440mm people, will only speak for itself now. It will be a whimper, caught somewhere inbetween Washington and Brussels.
June 15, 2018
Just found out that the option of the Free parliament movement is not available and must have a been shut down, just in case of any revolt by voters.
June 15, 2018
āFifth I want to see tax cuts in areas where we cannot cut taxes at the moment, including the abolition of VAT…ā
Just leave it there, Mr. R. Fuel would be a good start, but one of the – many – reasons I voted Leave was the prospect of ridding ourselves of this ridiculous byzantine imposition and returning to (if anything at all) a straightforward Purchase Tax.
June 15, 2018
It wasn’t an imposition, it was the choice of a previous Conservative government.
When the proposal to introduce the situation that, once VAT was charged, it could not be removed, was presented, the UK had a Conservative government that had the right of veto. That Conservative government chose not to veto.
Having chosen not to veto, and knowing the consequences of that choice, it was also a Conservative government then subsequently chose to impose VAT on domestic fuel for the first time.
If you want to look for someone to blame for all this, try Westminster.
June 15, 2018
Three cheers to all that John – and as far as I am concerned, ‘no buts’!
June 15, 2018
There are absolutely no benefits to brexit- none- it’s all a pipe dream thought up by deluded tory and UKIP mindsets..there are no new international trade deals out there waiting for us that will in any way compensate for our loss of membership of the richest economic bloc on the planet, an economic bloc with 500 million people with huge spending potential..located right on our doorstep
Some of our betters, mostly politicians with certain mindsets from business and the rag press, thought by starting on this path that we could be as good as or even better than the EU..in fact they thought that the cracks in EU would soon appear and that we could then have another trading bloc in place but this time led by the UK in competition with the EU where we would be the king makers..but alas no chance of that now..it hasn’t worked out that way.. so now we must pick up the pieces, take our chances with african and south american countries, hopefully to pick up some trade where we can, that is if they have the money and wherwithall. Information is that the EU will wash their hands of us ASAP- I’m pretty sure they are sick and tired of the English whinge Me Me Me! Am also sure Brexit will prove to be disastrous for this country
June 16, 2018
“Information is … “, sure.
June 17, 2018
Yes from an article in the Brussels Times also printed in some dutch and french papers following the decision to relocate gallileo project away from Uk
June 15, 2018
How does the potential loss of Ā£200+bn of EU trade add up to a saving?
June 16, 2018
What rubbish, and you get it published!
June 15, 2018
I am concerned that not enough emphasis is being put on the potential positive benefits of leaving the EU, but I am far more concerned about the lies which are still being told about the potential economic damage of Brexit. That myth has now been allowed to become well established in the “take that as read” category. Hence for the little it will be worth I’ve just sent this to the Maidenhead Advertiser, with references to back up the claims:
“Dear Sir
As we come up to the second anniversary of the EU referendum there is a widespread feeling that our withdrawal from the EU is degenerating into a shambles.
I suggest the basic reason is that too many people, including the Prime Minister and most other members of the government and Parliament, have still not shaken off their decades long delusion that EU membership is important for our economy.
It was unlikely that they would wake up and change their minds just because they had lost a popular vote, but one might have hoped objective evidence would have some effect.
Shortly before the referendum the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, warned us that merely voting to leave the EU would be enough to cause āan immediate and profound economic shockā and tip us into a deep recession, and yet here we are two years later and the UK economy has actually grown by 3.6%.
Now compare that 3.6% of natural growth of the UK economy with the total, one-off, benefit of the EU Single Market as estimated in a 2012 report by the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier, which was a paltry 2.1% added to the collective GDP of the EU member states.
Or delve further and find that another study agrees with that kind of figure as the average across the EU, but for the UK the one-off benefit has been below average at only 1% of GDP.
I keep seeing Remoaners on television claiming that it would be an economic catastrophe to leave the EU without any trade deal, but how do they suppose we would then lose so much more than we have ever gained?
Yours etc”
June 15, 2018
I believe John Longworth is absolutely correct in his opening statements about the “rottenness at the heart of the way our country is run”. Well done Conservatives and what a legacy, Theresa May. You will not be forgiven by the voters, I believe.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/06/15/tory-brexiteers-have-months-secure-hard-exit-perpetrate-great/
It’s now or never to secure a hard Brexit. Conservative ministers take note
JOHN LONGWORTH
“Time is running out for those who campaigned for Leave to put up or shut up
The strident and concerted attempt by the Remainer establishment, including the media, to overthrow the democratic will of the people has been shocking and has revealed a rottenness at the heart of the way our country is run.
As a consequence there is massive disillusionment, despair and fury among rank and file Brexit supporters, Labour and Conservative, and the scale of the backlash will be unimaginable ā albeit the form of this is not clear and could be perverse…. “
June 15, 2018
Is the row over the meaningful vote amendment to the Withdrawal Bill as now proposed by the Goverment part of an agreed and orchestrated strategy between the PMās core team and Remainers that gets the Prime Minister off the hook with David Davis and Brexiters, whilst at the same time allowing the rebels to get their way? Seeming to bow to Mr Davis and the ERG, the PM has allowed the version currently tabled to go forward, apparently to the great anger of the rebels, in the knowledge that the Lords will defeat it and when the Bill returns to the Commons Grieveās own amendment will be passed. In this way the PM looks as if she is backing the Leavers and has not voluntarily conceded to the rebels, and thus does not risk Mr Davisās resignation by accepting Dominic Grieveās demands at this stage. The rebels play along by crying foul and making claims of dirty dealing knowing they will get their own way next week, but in the meantime this row helps the PM with the Leavers. The PM is desperate to do a deal, any deal, so isnāt bothered either way how the amendment finally goes, but can say āI triedā and blame the rebels.
June 15, 2018
Mr Redwoo0d,
Let me use your own numbering
#1 There will be no money. Either you depart in a friendly manner (ongoing commitments) or a confrontational one (severe hit to the export oriented private sector, especially the car and avaiation industry) the former leaves no money and the latter means less corporate tax and a need to compensate the losers. Texttbook transitional economics.
#2Problematic but fine
#3 Those targets are nonsensical if they include foreign students. For the rest: will an influx of subcontinentals make the Northeast happier than the Romanians? I suspect that that was one of the objectives of some Leavers but still.
#4My firnds in India tell me that that will not work. They want immigration privileges and offer little in terms of market access. And they have the upper hand. Same for most interesting LDCs. The US will want terms that will cost the Tories government outright.
#5 As there will be no money for tax cuts, this will not be possible
#6Try and find out. Maybe the occasional success. Depends on what is on for from the UK.
June 15, 2018
Apparently one Tory MP think that sticking a smart phone up a womanās skirt and take a picture is okay.
Animal sentience part 2. Prepare for a full email inbox Mr Redwood!
June 17, 2018
When did he say that?
Fake news and spin.
June 15, 2018
I believe Richard Littlejohn, in the Mail, expresses what many of us who voted Leave feel. His article pokes fun at out of touch, arrogant and pompous Remainer MPs who are doggedly pursuing the overturning of Brexit.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-5845875/The-Bad-Boys-Brexit-spoke-Britain-week-Just-Brexit-bar.html
RICHARD LITTLEJOHN: The Bad Boys of Brexit spoke for Britain this week: Just get on with Brexit ā weāll be in the bar!
June 15, 2018
More despair at the modern ‘tabloid’ morality of Parliament today!
Well done Sir Christopher, for sticking to parliamentary principle, in the face of a tyrannical tide of hypocritical outrage. Where will it all end??
By incremental loss of freedom, how about the oil-rich Venezula model? Or the political certitude of North Korea – where many children go hungry and die of common illnesses, and where those who stand for principle against the tide end up in hard-labour camps, and may die? Or some pseudo-religious synthesis emanating from Europe?
June 15, 2018
Agreed with all that except ‘I want the UK to offer reduced tariffs and barriers to developing countries in return for more market access for ourselves.’
We should eliminate tariffs for processed agricultural goods e.g. Cocoa, so that developing countries can move up the value chain. At the moment the EU makes it impossible because their tariff is so much higher for processed goods than for raw commodities.
In return we should ask for nothing. We will benefit from cheaper prices for consumers. And as the economies of developing countries improve we can reduce foreign aid.
June 16, 2018
After the PM has been found lying/deceiving/misleading (select which ever you fancy) to her ministers recently, why on earth would any country believe anything we tell them?
Brexit is already a disaster for our country and will continue to be so for many decades to some. We are a bloody laughing stock all around the world.
June 16, 2018
Agreed, the Remoaners are deliberately turning us into a laughing stock.
Still, I expect we will muddle through some how, as we usually do, and hopefully we can then start to clear the rubbish out of our Parliament, or in the case of the Lords at least drastically curtail their power to do more harm.
June 16, 2018
You conveniently ignore the loss of EU regional funding which has been hugely beneficial to several areas of the UK.
Doesn’t it bother you in the slightest that Brexit has caused two years of political chaos, which will be three by the time we’ve left? How does internal political mayhem lead to economic prosperity, positive contributions to world affairs, or in fact anything positive? Haven’t you noticed that May stopped saying ‘No deal is better than a bad deal’ about 6 months ago? That’s because the EU negotiations are now about damage-limitation, and nothing else.
June 16, 2018
“Second, I want to see our new fishing policy as we become an independent coastal state. We need a policy that is kinder to our fish and our fishermen, and which lands more the fish caught in the UK for UK consumption”
Prior to our EU membership we fought 3 ‘cod wars’ with Iceland which we lost.
As a result, British fishing communities lost access to rich areas and were devastated, with thousands of jobs lost.
Will we see a return of similar conflicts with other neighbouring fishing nations?