So today, just for a change, the Cabinet discusses our possible future relationship with the EU. If they agree what they would like the EU will probably turn it down, as they have turned down most of the positive proposals the government has put forward so far. I have been urging the government to table a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU and ask them to respond, as that offers a way through if the EU wants any deal.
If we just leave in March 2019 life will go on much as it did before. Planes will still fly into Heathrow from the continent. Just in time deliveries will still pass through our ports with electronic manifests and off site supervision as they do from non EU sources today. Germany will still be selling us plenty of cars, the Netherlands plenty of salads and vegetables, France plenty of cheese and wine. Most UK exports to the continent will flow tariff free under WTO tariff schedules, as there are no tariffs on services or goods like aerospace, and low ones on everything else apart from agriculture and cars. We and the EU will trade under the WTO’s Facilitation of Trade Agreement, which deals with non tariff barriers. Where tariffs go on the UK will expand domestic production to meet more of the home market demand and will have the opportunity to import more cheaply from outside the EU as it wishes. As we have a large trade deficit in cars and food with the EU they will lose more from tariffs, so it is in their interest to agree tariff free as we propose.
The UK economy will get an immediate boost from spending an extra ÂŁ12bn a year on public services or through tax cuts as we will save the money as soon as we leave. We can rebuild our fishing industry once we control our own waters and fish stocks. We can put in place our own migration policy, that is fair between EU and non EU migrants.
Above all the UK will be a self governing democracy again. So will the Cabinet rise to the challenge? Wouldn’t it be good if they came out from their meeting with a range of plans to use the new freedoms, rights and cash leaving will bring. Brexit offers considerable scope to improve our lives and services here at home and to grow our economy faster.
July 6, 2018
Agree with what you say Mr Redwood, like in the film it comes to a end weâre the man gets his girl, letâs hope we get what we voted for a end to Eu domination over us and a complete withdrawal from the dreaded Eu with no political ties or does that only happen in the movies
July 6, 2018
For a more accurate scenario and description of the May approach do have a look at The Conservative Woman website and the article by Andrew Cadman:
“Weâre all drained by the Vampire of Downing Street”
and not least by the perceptive following comments
July 6, 2018
The text from your whip already leaked for MPs to get behind the underhand PM. May wants regularity alignment, collect taxes for EU and ECJ to apply on level playing field issues. She also wants to mirror social and environment chapters we read. This will hamper free trade deals as we will be no more competitive than the EU and can only do deals on the EU terms. Covered by Treaty and if it is varied, we read, there will be severe consequences!
May has lost the plot and failed the people of this country, she has shown utter contempt for electoral democracy and is using a remain parliament and Lords to keep the U.K. Shackled to the EU forever. It is difficult to draw any other conclusion than she has colluded with the EU, EU leaders, remainers, civil service to beat Leave MPs and the people of this country.
You were all warned, you saw this develop incrementally by her underhand actions, her fake Irish border problem, her massive hundred billion give away to talk about a trade deficit, EU army pact, more. Only for EU mass immigration, failure to censure those who falsely claimed to bring her Govt down, allowed civil service to write and publish fake reports from Treasury, civil service dishonest Kitkat polish to hide true costs and ties to EU, allowed Greive, Soubry, Clarke etc to undermine her, she even wished Clarke happy birthday this week! May did not even take the whip away from Lords!
At what point do you think you and fellow Leave MPs had a duty to the public to intervene and remind May she lost the vote to remain in the EU and is abusing her position of office to use all arms of the state to thwart the will of the people?
July 7, 2018
There is an old farm yard trick that Sheppard use to get sheep to go were they otherwise would not. They use a goat which is trained and the sheep readily follow it.
Do you know what that is called ?
July 7, 2018
Please tell us.
July 6, 2018
Somebody could write a book entitled
“How To Be A British Prime Minister”
Chapter One could deal with negotiation. It would say the following.
“When negotiating with foreign powers, especially the EU, ask for nothing. This will ensure you get even less.”
July 6, 2018
After todays sell-out things will go on EXACTLY as before March 2019 Mr Redwood. If not worse and more expensive.
The only chance of stopping May’s betrayal now is a back bench revolt and to Hell with any dangers.
Will you stand Mr Redwood? Or does the gutless nature of Toryism carry on from the top to the bottom. The ERG is the only hope for the party now.
The sound of membership cards being torn up all across the UK is deafening tonight.
July 6, 2018
Yes indeed and we will finally see what Theresa May proposes. It is only Groundhog Day again because she is desperately trying to find a way to impose her pro EU position. None of the signals look good but it could all be positioning puff. I remember Cameron coming back from his negotiations with, frankly, nothing treating the public like mugs trying to spin that he had achieved a great deal.
I suspect we will be treated like mugs again with us continued to be tied to the EU in all but name but again spun as meeting your manifesto promises and why we voted to leave. I hope not.
You will understand more than most what their agreement really means, not the spun version, I will be interested to read your assessment. The question is: if it is not good where will your and the ERG loyalties lie and how much courage do you all have.
July 7, 2018
Yes, and I remember certain Conservative MP’s supporting him. Don’t we đ
July 6, 2018
Current EU membership: a bowl of cherries:
– Opt-out from Schengen
– Opt-out from EMU
– Opt-out from euro
– Opt-out from Social Chapter
– Opt-out from charter of fundamental rights
– Opt-out from judicial co-operation
Oops, did I forget the rebate?
I doubt the EU should stand ready to hand over more cherries, once the UK finishes negotiating with itself like it will be today.
July 6, 2018
PVL,
Have you at least realised yet that the boys in Brussels are just the administration for the real power in Berlin? Since my last warning to you, there has been evidence aplenty. Beautiful Holland, a German province now? NEXIT?
July 6, 2018
more British rubbuish
July 6, 2018
@Peter Wood: Arenât you just an excellent example of the average Briton: understands everything about what he is interested in, like cricket. When it comes to Europe, understanding apparently sorely lacking, possibly because youâve not really studied it. Donât be sad, youâre in good company, some of your senior ministers also didnât have a clue, when first confronted with the knife-edge referendum result and believed theyâd just go and deal with Mrs Merkel.
July 7, 2018
Knife edge—hhahhhahh.
When I think of the likes of you and all the British lads of 18 or 19 who never saw 20 because they died fighting to rescue your country from the Germans last time–I think maybe we shouldn’t have bothered.
July 6, 2018
Yes, the UK never really did want to be in. That’s why so many opt-outs were politically necessary.
July 6, 2018
@G Wilson: which would make me agree with many a brexiteer, that the UK may feel (and fit in) a lot better once it has left the EU and has some intergovernmental arrangements.
July 6, 2018
Regardless of Schengen exemptions our country has seen massive EU migration and for our citizens feel the slump in living standards.
Have you seen the state of our roads ?
July 6, 2018
we sdid to ourselves we did not need migration for that
July 6, 2018
@Anonymous: Yes, and interesting then that, while the Dutch each contribute (net) more to the EU than you, according to my British family, roads and public transport in the Netherlands is better than in Britain.
July 6, 2018
Not even if we hand over our giant ÂŁ40bn divorce bill cherry ? OK – we’ll just keep that then.
July 6, 2018
@Roy Grainger: You will probably hand that ovre anyway, a simple settling of accounts that civilised countries are used to. It is not up to the Daily Express to determine what civilized behaviour is for your country.
July 6, 2018
We British cherish a complete opt-out of the EU, regaining our freedom via Brexit.
July 6, 2018
that will be even more expensive not wise
July 7, 2018
Our freedom is dearer to us; worth more than incidental expenses.
July 10, 2018
hans
Care to provide some evidence to support your guess?
July 6, 2018
@Adam: Fine with me.
July 6, 2018
Cherries??? being a member of an organisation which doesn’t accept the result of national votes it doesn’t like – as for example in Ireland, Netherlands .. oh, and Greece. An organisation which wants all members to join a single currency which must then become a single tax area .. and which condemns national governments such as Italy, Portugal to monetary impotence? which fines when it wants to, acknowledges fraud when convenient, but can’t even audit its own books? and asks us to pay billions per annum. Which does diddly squat about evening out regional imbalances in economic strength, research across the EU… so here in the UK we have immigration in the millions from CEE,, who come for our benefits, financial and indirect, so we have to build schools, hospitals, etc etc etc Cherries???
July 6, 2018
@Alison: Ill-informed! (by your tabloids?) The EU has accepted all national refeendums. Reaslity is more complicated than what would fit in a tabloid oneliner heading. Your rant against the EU is a bit too long to defuse all these grenades you’re throwing at us, so I’ll pass..
July 7, 2018
If you can’t make a better response, better to say nothing. Not one fact in your mini rant. Allison is right on all counts. Counter if you can, but you already said you can’t.
July 6, 2018
A vastly overpriced bowl of cherries, due to the common agricultural policy.
July 6, 2018
@Jagman84: The CAP has gradually been reformed and although still large, has become a smaller proportion of the EU budget.
July 7, 2018
The amount of the EU budget being spent on CAP is up.
Reformed…?
Ridiculous claim.
July 7, 2018
Because of other imposed competencies inflating the pot Peter not because the CAP hand outs have been decreased
July 6, 2018
You mentioned salads and vegetables from the Netherlands. However, there is an opportunity now to put an end to one of the most pointless and polluting aspects of trade with the EU.
Every day, large lorries arrive on an early ferry from Holland full of flowers. These drive around the UK, pumping out CO2, clogging up the roads and blocking traffic while parking outside flower shops. Men then feel obliged to buy them and offer them to their wives, girlfriends and now husbands. The flowers are then put into water and are occasionally looked at before dying. Then they are dumped and go to landfill to create methane.
There is no reason why flowers could not be grown locally or perhaps electronic flowers could be sent to wive’s laptops for them to look at.
As regards cars, if the EU insists on high tariffs, Peugeot and BMW have factories in the UK and parts are tariff- free. It would make sense to assemble them here and this would also save them having to put the steering wheel on what, to them, is the wrong side. There would be no problem sending parts through customs, as these are British and the officers would be told to let them through, along with French cauliflowers etc.
July 6, 2018
@stred: You certainly have a point, although added up, the contribution to CO2 reduction may turn out to be quite small. Why not start building (and using) more trains and fewer cars, until there will be much better and affordable total electric cars. Weâll happily export them to you! đ
July 7, 2018
We?
What electric cars does Holland make?
July 6, 2018
You shouldnât mix up the U.K. with the U.K. Govt Peter. I obviously donât speak for all Leave voters, but I voted to leave with no expectations of concessions from the EU. I ask for nothing and expect nothing other than total independence. I didnât vote for âMayâs Vision of Brexitâ or the politiciansâ visions of Brexit, hard or soft Brexit, or anything else. I voted to Leave the EU. Full stop. And I think Mr Redwood had the same stance.
July 6, 2018
Our family voted for the same – national independence, to be a normal country again, not for any “deal”.
July 6, 2018
@DaveM: I’m not very different then, only that I’m pro EU membership for the Netherlands and in that I hope that the younger generations (which now feel robbed by Brexit) will one day constitute a large majority for returning (via article 49)
July 7, 2018
No chance. No go mind your own business Mr EU. No more EU goods in this household, cars, flowers, wine etc. Treasure Island is closed to you by popular vote regardless of our useless Government. She (May) will be replaced just a matter of time!
July 6, 2018
Peter VAN LEEUWEN, you are absolutely correct.
It is totally unfair for Brussels to provide all these giveaways to the UK at the exclusion of the other unfortunate remaining 27 counties; how dare the British think they can have their cake and eat it too, disgraceful behaviour.
Am I guessing correctly you must be deliriously happy the UK is leaving this wonderful European institution? If so, then we must agree with you and welcome it too! Europe and the EU deserve each other, without the naughty British getting in the way…..I mean, it is your right! Tally ho
July 6, 2018
@Dennis Zoff: I’m not happy about the economic damage that may be caused, but I do think it is better for the UK to be outside the EU , rather than an unhappy half-member.
July 7, 2018
Peter VAN LEEUWEN.
We both agree on principle and pragmatism. Let the British go, and the EU can get on with its clear objective. Let Europe benefit from the EU’s plan for full political and economic integration. This is fair to all interested parties. I for one am curious how it will pan out and trust it works out well for you.
Perhaps you can assist in convincing the troubled souls on this blog to simply accept that Britain wishes to leave on good terms and call it a day!
Regards
July 6, 2018
Was that a list of cherries? What a surprise we didn’t want them! And the rebate? Some of our own money back!
July 6, 2018
@Wessexboy: for years and decades you’ve been chewing these cherries.
July 7, 2018
Deluded. Benefits? What benefits? No one ever told us that! Take the EU’s unemployed and minimum wage workers at ÂŁ3K each on health and public services. Its rules and hughe net costs! Building on our greenbelt? Undermining our culture? Overcrowding? You are the absolute representative of an undemocratic authoritarian individual who cannot understand………..sovereignty and self rule!
July 6, 2018
Peter,
I think you mean no more cake and eat it?
July 6, 2018
@John O’Leary: OK. Better to leave via art 50, and if you ever want to rejoin, there is art 49.
July 6, 2018
Peter: if the EU is so wonderful, why do you regard exclusion from each of those aspects as being positive gifts to the UK, rather than valuable things we miss out on? Needless to say, we ARE opting out of many more aspects as well – the EU cannot stop that, under its own rules – the only question is which aspects, if any, we will still participate in beyond next year. Perhaps the answer will simply be ânoneâ: weâve tried negotiating to continue contributing to Galileo, for example, but been rebuffed. So, in your terms, thatâs one more âcherryâ they have insisted on handing us – unsolicited!
July 6, 2018
Excellent point.
The truth is finally out from this PvL….
Clearly this Peter feels the need to flagellate his country by subjecting it to EMU, Schengen, Social chapter, Euro etc., and is therefore understandably upset that the UK has opted out. If he believed they were all such good things, he’d have that schadenfreude that we aren’t involved in them.
July 7, 2018
@Sir Joe Soap: Actually, I have always experienced Schengen and the euro to be absolutely great! I just drive (or take a train) to Paris without seemingly crossing any borders, nor needing any different currency, no extra charges when I use payment by card, Paris just doesnât feel âabroadâ for me! Being fluent in French does help of course and I cannot claim to know all the euro or Schengen languages, but still, the simple fact that Iâm welcome in any Schengen country and that I see items priced just like home has a strong psychological influence, one of the reasons that young, well travelled people feel robbed by the old British people who still harbour feelings of âspecialnessâ and ârule the wavesâ. Interesting aside that the Conservative party is organised by the â1922 committeeâ stemming from the time that Britain controlled a quarter of the world population. Those feelings of âspecialnessâ apparently will take a few more generations to disappear
July 6, 2018
@James Sutherland: They were cherries in that the EU gave in to these UK demands/conditions. And it didnât make the Uk feel any better, so now I think the UK outside of the EU would be better than this half-hearted semi membership.
July 6, 2018
Could we be that lucky john? It would seem it is only the Americans that can see the benefits of Brexit. Our lot are too busy worrying about preaching to us what we can eat and drive, taxing us and giving rights and money to LGBT’s. This will be our one and only chance for freedom and I bet they muck it up and play right into the hands of the EU.
July 6, 2018
Openly, Australians too. Less publicly I suspect many
July 6, 2018
” Muck it up “? . .that depends on which side you want to be. WE want to be out of it. A certain woman is 100% for staying in and will destroy this country in her search for a seat in Brussels as a reward for her treachery.
July 6, 2018
Indeed to the May Government the new upskirting law, HS2, Hinkley C, gender change legislation on the NHS and the likes, upping taxes hand over fist, attacking the self employed and similar is far more urgent & important.
July 6, 2018
Good morning
These so called negotiations are about settling our affairs with the EU. The EU cannot and will not negotiate trade until AFTER we have left. I can only conclude that the narrative of a trade deal is nothing more than a ruse to trick the people of their freedom. If a trade deal really was more to their advantage then why are they not asking for one ? Funny that!
There is nothing to discuss other than how they can sell out the people of the UK.
When we leave the EU, albeit in name only, we will become a ‘Third Country’ like all the rest. I for one do not mind as that was what I was voting for. But it seems that the MP’s and all the rest of the self styled elite what to Remain in the EU for their own reasons and benefit. And this is what this is all about. And everybody knows it.
July 6, 2018
To your last paragraph. NO.
May is determined to keep us in the Customs Union and single market and continue freedom of movement
July 6, 2018
So now we have the final game plan which is complete capitulation by the Remainiacs.
As I see it we have to accept Mays third way which entails shadowing the Customs Union and single market and continue freedom of movement otherwise we have to maintain the backstop position of staying in the Customs Union and single market and continue freedom of movement. Very well planned.
Brexit means No exit at any price. If May isn’t removed immediately there will be open revolution.
July 6, 2018
@Ian wragg; “So now we have the final game plan which is complete capitulation by the Remainiacs.”
Hyperbolic, sour-mouthed, nonsense. “Complete capitulation” would be the withdrawal of A50, perhaps even giving up our existing opt-outs too!
“If May isnât removed immediately there will be open revolution.”
Indeed, the left have been calling for that since this time last year! You might not like it but Mrs May did, just about, win the last GE, she thus has a manifesto mandate due to leading the largest party.
I might (now) personally want the UK to leave on WTO terms but I accept that we will leave the European Union how the elected government wish, not how a bunch of (often sour-mouthed) also-rans want, be they europhiles or eurosceptics – it’s called living in a parliamentary democracy. Mr Wragg, you need to look the meaning of that last word up in a dictionary…
July 6, 2018
Indeed. If the result is a complete capitulation as reported May and the Government have given up the right to rule as we can also ignore their democracy as she and the remainers have done to us. Regulatory alignment with no say is a supplicant state. A laughing stock to the world! She will go and it will not look good going forward. I didn’t spend years and many weeks campaigning, leafleting and travelling the Country to allow these quislings get away with this. I like millions of other s are spitting feathers at your Government!!!
July 6, 2018
No there won’t.
July 6, 2018
I suspect a lot of people would like to have a revolution and get rid of Mrs May and Mr Robbins.
July 6, 2018
more uinformed rubbish
July 6, 2018
“We and the EU will trade under the WTOâs Facilitation of Trade Agreement, which deals with non tariff barriers”.
This is shameless dishonesty. Any trade expert knows this is not so, you have been told it is not so, yet you keep saying it. The only thing that deals with non tariff barriers in international trade is the Treaty of Rome, open to all members of the EU but not to third countries like the Uk will be.
July 6, 2018
You should not call JR dishonest. He is quite correct. How do the rest of the world, idiot? Most are not in the EU dictatorship of Germany.
July 6, 2018
Try this, from a Professor of International Economic Law:
https://brexitcentral.com/busting-remain-inspired-myths-trade-wto-terms/
“Busting the Remain-inspired myths about trade on WTO terms”
And in this particular context:
“New UK-EU non-tariff barriers would be illegal under WTO rules immediately after exit, even in a no-deal scenario.”
July 6, 2018
Odd that world trade has little in the way of non tariff barriers.
Outside the EU where most of world trade happens I see little in the way of queues delays or shortages of products in shops.
The 160 nations not signed up to the Treaty of Rome seem to be trading OK.
July 6, 2018
Before fulminating, inform yourself about the basic facts of WTO non-tariff barrier agreements.
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/Whatis_e/tif_e/agrm9_e.htm
The Treaty of Rome aimed at removing tariff barriers within the EEC: it not remove non-tariff barriers , as economists have pointed out – that is why Maastricht had to create a single market.
https://europe.unc.edu/files/2016/11/Brief_Single_Market_2008.pdf
July 6, 2018
Henry Spark
3 times of linked you now to the WTO rules and regulations on non tariff barriers
I’m not linking it again Google WTO non tariff barriers and get some education about international trade
You are talking complete nonsense
July 6, 2018
How does the US trade with the EU Henry ?
July 6, 2018
Henry
You owe our host an apology.
I have just searched online “WTO and non tariff barriers” and there are numerous articles on there including several directly from WTO itself describing how the WTO can deal with nations who try to restrict trade by using non tariff barriers.
Check a yourself.
And get back to us.
July 6, 2018
The WTO recognises that Regions Trade Areas, such as the EU are discriminatory and affords no protection against non-tariff barriers anyway.
July 6, 2018
The puzzling part is that 5 minutes after it is announced there is agreement in the Cabinet on the plan Barnier will reject it out of hand.
July 6, 2018
I think Merkel and Barnier have been consulted and approved the draft deal, all Brussels has to do now is finesse it by writing FoM for people with jobs (car cleaners) and ECJ approval on everything including tax and spend policies. May will sell Vassal statehood as the best deal.
July 6, 2018
She has obviously clinched something with Frau Merkel because I have never seen her looking so happy as in the last few days.
July 6, 2018
Unfortunately, the PM is not a leader, grins inanely while holding Belgium shirts at EU summits, capitulates incessantly, virtue signals against our natural allies, and thinks that is a good idea for a new, independent UK to slavishly collect EU taxes….. Sure, what can go wrong?
zorro
July 6, 2018
Whisper it – tariffs are not the problem. NON-tariff barriers are.
And you voted to erect non-tariff barriers. Thatâs what being out means.
It turns out that those EU regulations that you loathe, allow frictionless trade.
Who knew? Well, it turns out pretty much everyone in business.
So there you have it. Your Brexit means huge friction to our trade – and a poorer country.
Still at least you get to take back control of lightbulb regulation.
Perhaps your party will do a better job with lightbulbs than you do with the NHS?
Most of all though I find it deeply ironic that the most vocal Brexiteers like Brexit least.
Turns out I was right. In June 2016 you really didnât know what you were voting for.
Shame.
July 6, 2018
You kerp repeating this ridiculous nonsense even atfer you have been ptoved wrong Andy.
We voted to leave
No one voted for non trade barriers.
If you ran a company that actually sends good from the UK you would realise there is considerable paperwork required to export into European countries.
I’m not sure you understand what you mean when you say the word “frictionless”
And there are many different standards and specifications throughout the EU.
Electrical and plumbing standards are just two examples.
I’ve found it just as easy to send goods to the many non EU nations.
We knew what we were voting for.
Independence, free to make our own laws, control over our borders as it suits us and control over our own money.
And the primacy of our courts and elected government.
Trade is all you concern yourself with.
July 6, 2018
As you say Brexit offers considerable scope to improve our lives and services here at home and to grow our economy faster.
As would lower, simpler taxes, massive deregulation, relaxation of planning, sensible simple employment and self employment rules, a large reduction in the overpaid and pensioned (and largely unproductive) state sector, reform of the dire NHS, reform of the legal system (again largely parasitic), cutting the climate alarmism and green crap, giving people more freedom to invest and spend their own money as they chose, freedom of choice in education and sorting out the BBC propaganda outfit.
Alas T May and P Hammond seem to love augmenting this economic straight jacket. She will give us a deal even worse than full membership unless they are stopped.
July 6, 2018
Above all the UK will be a self governing democracy again. So will the Cabinet rise to the challenge?
Not under May that is surely clear.
July 6, 2018
A democratically declared majority of the country agrees with you.
In the UK that doesn’t seem to matter though, as we have unimaginative folk with fixed and old-fashioned protectionist ideas, and they seem to have the upper hand in all of this.
When democracy dies, other forces start to take over.
July 6, 2018
I hope the Chequers attendees understand that the price of failure is high, both politically and economically. The options are clear, a tariff free trade treaty on goods and services or a reversion to WTO rules. No half way house which I would see as an affront to the decision of the British people. No compromise on our sovereignty, but cooperation with Europe where it is seen to work for mutual benefit. If the EU cannot accept tariff free trade on goods and services, then financial contributions end on 29th March 2019. I fear that the cabinet members and it’s leadership will turn it into a dogs breakfast.
July 6, 2018
According to a Sky News journalist last night this will be Theresa May saying what she wants for the first time.
That puzzled me a bit, as I thought I remembered Theresa May saying what she wanted before, in January 2017; so I checked to see whether Sky had reported anything at that time, and found for example:
https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-final-brexit-deal-means-uk-must-leave-single-market-10732188
“Theresa May: Final Brexit deal means UK must leave single market”
“The final Brexit deal with the EU will mean the UK leaving the European single market, Theresa May has announced.
In a speech outlining the Government’s plans on leaving the EU at Lancaster House in London, the Prime Minister said both Houses of Parliament will vote on the final deal.
Mrs May said the plans “cannot mean membership of the single market”.
She said: “Being out of the EU but a member of the single market would mean complying with the EU’s rules and regulations that implement those freedoms, without having a vote on what those rules and regulations are.
“It would mean accepting a role for the European Court of Justice that would see it still having direct legal authority in our country.
“It would to all intents and purposes mean not leaving the EU at all.”
So that speech hasn’t completely disappeared down an Orwellian memory hole, it’s just being studiously ignored so Theresa May can have a fresh start and renege on it.
July 6, 2018
The Brexiters […] Their final argument is that we should leave everything to the last minute because only at the last minute will the EU cave and offer us complete access to the Single Market on whatever terms we like. Perhaps some really believe that, but there is an alternative interpretation of what the Brexiters are doing. They are trying to delay because that way they may get their own favoured outcome of no deal by default. In short, by intent or not, they are trying to sabotage a Brexit deal. (Simon Wren Lewis blog)
July 6, 2018
Every proposal by the UK since the referendum has quickly been rejected by the EU.
Yet you blame only the UK
July 6, 2018
But what’s on offer from May isn’t a Brexit deal, it’s a deal to stay in the EU in all but name. As such it must be sabotaged.
July 6, 2018
What rubbish, you should find yourself a better blog to follow … you may recall that some of us on here were disgusted that Theresa May so weakly agreed to sequential rather than parallel negotiations, the exact opposite of what you claim.
July 7, 2018
The two agreements, the first being the Withdrawal Agreement; are separate sequential negotiations as required under Treaty articles, May had no choice as she chose to leave voluntarily via Article 50.
July 6, 2018
acorn
Do you not read most of the contributions to this blog?
1) The EU say they won’t negotiate until we’ve left
2) Most of us just want to leave and trade under WTO rules
me most conducive
3) Political remainers are the ones throwing up all the issues in an attempt to keep us in
July 6, 2018
No, we are just trying to make a point on your very illogical and not very consistent arguments, no more no less
July 10, 2018
hans
If you are trying to make a point try using some facts instead of emotional ranting.
July 6, 2018
Judging from the speculation in the media your pragmatic approach has lost to the greater EUPHILE numbers in your Parliamentary party and in Parliament.
‘Twas ever thus our politicians sell us out.
Disgraceful
July 6, 2018
Representative democracy my a*** to misquote Joe Royle
July 6, 2018
Bankers rule.
July 6, 2018
BBC seems to have decided to run the Novichok story 24/7 as a diversion.
July 6, 2018
It fits their anti Russia narrative. All their news and comment are driven by the corporate agenda.
July 6, 2018
The Second FALSE FLAG on this subject. We the people are not stupid.
July 6, 2018
You paint a pretty picture JR. Unfortunately Mrs May and most of the Gov. and of course the EU mandarins, cannot or will not see it.
If the PM backs down from the declarations she made at PM’s question time recently. She has to go.
Put Boris in as PM. He won’t take the cr*p May takes.
July 6, 2018
Indeed she must go when she caves in as she clearly intends. She supports a deal even worse than full membership. But not only that, she is wrong on nearly everyone other policy too being essentially a another dire high tax, greencrap, “BBC think” wrong headed Libdim. What sensible person would put & keep, tax to death, Philip Hammond at no 11?
July 6, 2018
No he is quite capable of effusing enough of his own.
July 6, 2018
Fortunately for us, the EU will continue to reject every single one of the UK’Government’s proposals.
Every single half in half out idea and every offer of large lump sum payment has been rejected.
Thank goodness one side in this process of leaving the EU has good judgement.
July 6, 2018
Mrs May, it seems, is working hand in glove with Project Fear v2.0 with carefully timed statements from business. Dr Speth, CEO of JLR, made the reasonable comment that uncertainty is unhelpful. However his reported remarks on the cost of delays through customs were surprising. He said they would cost over ÂŁ1 BN a year. One would have thought that HMRCs statements on customs procedures and the desire of his continental suppliers to keep the production lines working just in time 24/7 would be capable of overcoming that difficulty. Moreover JLR has already taken the precaution on building its new battery powered Jaguar I-Pace in Austria and will soon commission a 150,000 unit capacity a year assembly plant in Slovakia to build all Discoveries (transferred from Solihull) and it is rumoured the forthcoming replacement for the Defender. In short JLR has already, and sensibly, made and implemented its investment decisions to serve EU market. That leaves it with just the extremely profitable, high margin Range Rover built in the UK – the real source of the cash flow that has powered the companies revival, including valiant and expensive attempts to revive the Jaguar brand which otherwise would have foundered.
I am also surprised at the talk of Brexit ministers resigning. Why should they do so for supporting the referendum result and their own party’s manifesto commitments?
July 6, 2018
I regret to say our only hope of a “proper” Brexit after today is that the Brexiteers in the cabinet stay on board and the EU negotiating team reject Mrs Mays hopelessly compromised proposal.
I doubt whether May can survive that rejection and hope she will be replaced, without a contest, by someone willing to stand up to Brussels and tell them we are leaving in March with or without a deal and invite them to change their position. It has to be Michael Gove.
Alternatively we will have to live with her squalid, pathetic deal and await developments in Europe which will inevitably see the EU break up into smaller units we can more easily renegotiate with.
July 6, 2018
“Brexit offers considerable scope to improve our lives and services here at home and to grow our economy faster.”
Indeed it does (and that is why I favour leaving on WTO terms) but we need a total change to our political mind-set too, not just more of the same mistakes but sans those of the the EU, far to much has been blamed on the EU when the mistakes were of our own doing. The UK has, unlike the rest of the EU (never mind much of the RotW) wasted much of the last 43 or so years, we need to relearn the worth of everything and perhaps forget the value of much.
‘Make Britain Great again’, “yes we can”, Rule Britannia!
July 6, 2018
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/frog-at-boiling-point.html
“Brexiteer frog at boiling point”
“In a nutshell, Johnson and Davis and Gove and company today need an alternative proposal for the UK-Ireland impasse.”
Here is my alternative proposal repeated again:
Donât promise that all goods produced in or imported into the UK will always conform to EU rules – the EU’s Single Market model – instead promise that all goods exported from the UK to the EU will always conform to EU rules, with potentially severe penalties for anybody who sends or takes across stuff which the EU sees as unacceptable – the “parallel marketability” model used to keep the Switzerland-Liechtenstein border open:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/05/17/the-business-of-england/#comment-935654
July 6, 2018
Denis Cooper
As usual, your comment is just too logical, too pragmatic, too well thought out and with an expectation, this could be successfully driven by competent individuals…alas your fly in the ointment…we rely on incompetent Politicians to execute these obvious beneficial initiatives? This current crop of Government incumbents is perhaps the worst we have ever witnessed? Sorry to disappoint!
July 6, 2018
Which is impossible without a hard border.
F for fail.
July 6, 2018
After we have left it will be up to the UK to decide what border it wants.
The UK has said they do not want a hard border.
If the Republic if Irelandnwants one then they can build their wall.
July 6, 2018
Liechtenstein has a population of circa 35,000 persons. That is equivalent to circa six (6) English Parishes, out of circa 10,400 such English Parishes. Scaling up the Liechtenstein solution by a factor of circa 1,500, seems a little far fetched, even for dumbarsed Brexiters. Switzerland now runs a zero import tariff on most industrial goods, but still needs 22,000 Customs Officers.
July 7, 2018
Come on, then, explain precisely why you think it is “a little far fetched”, and give relevant rather than irrelevant information. The principle is the same whatever the sizes of the entities on either side of an open border, it can be kept open if each passes and enforces laws to ensure respect for the regulatory requirements of the other within its own territory.
July 6, 2018
An ideal outcome, but would you put money on it?
July 6, 2018
Whilst May and Hammond are in charge what you suggest will never happen.
People are becoming angry and frustrated at Mrs Mayâs reluctance to get tough with th EU and get us out. Sheâs hopeless so get rid of her, if not she will keep us shackled to the EU and the Tories will be annihilated at the next GE.
July 6, 2018
What we are seeing, surely, is the climax of a battle between political concepts.
In 1975, we were offered (deceptively) the option of staying in an inter-national(sic) trading alliance, and we accepted. What the EU actually intended was a political entity governed by a supra-national body.
Endless round-and-round-the-garden arguments – whether on internet forums or the Houses of Parliament – achieve nothing, and nor do insults, whichever side hurls them.
There have been basic philosophic arguments about how governments should work since The Enlightenment, and whether labelled Left or Right, the bulk of the argument – whether from Rousseau or Marx – is that there should be a very small, prescriptive and largely self-appointed legislative body in constant power that somehow always knows what is best for the rest of the proletariat.
If, as seems likely from this morning’s news, Mrs May’s administration cave in to Brussels, the most powerful people in the world – in politics, business, finance and religion – will be delighted and feel fully justified, and all the rest of us will just have to re-learn the lesson that we don’t count and we don’t matter.
July 6, 2018
The project is being approached as one of damage limitation. The opportunities are not front and centre
July 6, 2018
Whatever plan Mrs May chooses, surely the Defence Secretary will acquaint her with the military maxim that no plan survives first contact with the enemy.
July 6, 2018
I watched the âAlex Salmond Showâ on Russia Today yesterday. This episode was devoted to Gibraltar and was very informative, particularly in respect of the Rockâs economy.
Some 25 years ago the British government decided to close down the naval base which comprised over 60 per cent of the Gibraltarian economy. In the intervening period Gibraltar has comfortably managed the transition to a more diversified and prosperous economy with the British naval contribution now down to six per cent.
But EU trade only comprises 12 per cent of the UK economy and the figures I have seen only assume anything from a half of one per cent to two per cent loss of trade with the EU if we leave without a deal. Could we manage to handle that if the Gibraltarians can handle the much bigger effect from the loss of the naval base? I think we could.
As an aside, I would mention that one of the Gibraltarian interviewees said they had only voted Remain to avoid hassle from Spain. Their hearts were with Brexit!
July 6, 2018
RT has some excellent interview shows.And that is probably the reason the UK government/Establishment would rather you didn’t watch them-an informed electorate?That would never do!
July 6, 2018
Notice AS never let on that Gibraltar has never been in the Cusotms Union.
July 6, 2018
JR: “So will the Cabinet rise to the challenge?”
I think we know the answer to that and it’s negative.
On Wednesday this week in answer to a question from Owen Paterson said:
“I am pleased to tell my right hon. Friend that we have a strong team in Cabinet who will take this decision on Friday. I assure him that the Brexit that the Government will deliver and are working to deliver is a Brexit that ensures that we are out of the customs union, we are out of the single market, we are out of the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, we are out of the common agricultural policy, we are out of the common fisheries policy, we bring an end to free movement, we take control of our borders, and we have an independent trade policy, but we are also able to have a good trade arrangement with the European Union, protecting jobs and prosperity for the future.”
We shall see later today if she was misleading Parliament and the people of the UK.
July 6, 2018
But if it’s all so straightforward (and many agree that it is) why is our Government offering the EU ÂŁ40 billion so that they will engage in talks in the interests of trade? Isn’t that bribery? And isn’t that illegal?
July 6, 2018
That ÂŁ40bn ( probably more ) will “vanish” into certain people’s hidden accounts, just like Foreign Aid does. Nothing will be seen of it. The Panama Papers only ended up showing one name, the rest used lawyers to keep us from knowing.
July 6, 2018
L.Jones..not so..40 billion is to cover the cost of our departure..nothing to do with future talks
July 6, 2018
So are you saying everything was not agreed yesterday by Dr. Merkel?
July 6, 2018
@formula57; Nothing can be agreed until both the EU (and now the UK) parliament decide to accept or reject, what any single leader of the current EU28 wants is thus irrelevant, even if they do manage to carry the other 28 heads of government.
The Brexit timetable is well known, even if the agreement has not been negotiated yet, your anti German rants say more about you than they do Angela Merkel.
July 6, 2018
Pitiful if not sickening to watch the school prefect (May) running off to the headmistress (Merkel) to get her work approved in advance, before she put it to the UK cabinet. And then some still say that we are master of our own destiny. Pull the other one, its got bells on!
This lot are subservient gutless directionless cowards bereft of ideas.
Tad Davison
Cambridge
July 6, 2018
Yes, and she thinks this is simply a normal thing to do! It doesn’t even cross her simple mind as to how this plays out with anybody who cares to watch and think simultaneously!
As a contemporary of hers, I don’t understand how on earth this woman made it to and survived unscathed academically at Oxford?
July 7, 2018
@SJS; “she thinks this is simply a normal thing to do!”
Of course it’s the normal thing to do, even President Trump does it, even if he then does what he wants anyway, it’s what all heads of government do – if they don’t they became hermits leading hermit States.
July 6, 2018
It was agreed by Merkel alright there was no other reason for going and giving it to her before the cabinet.
July 6, 2018
“We can rebuild our fishing industry once we control our own waters and fish stocks” – most of the fishing quotas have already been sold to European (non UK) entities so this seems a little pointless, at best.
July 6, 2018
Gove’s proposed paper has sold out the U.K. Fishing industry forever! Come on JR, where does this rest with your comment? Iceland has 95 percent of its fish, Norway similarly high. Why not the U.K. If EU banned it would allow stocks to grow and flourish while the U.K. Fleet grew. No, instead Gove wants to continue the EU dominance over our waters and fishing stocks. Please explain why?
Waterblog yesterday did not cover mass immigration, again, and the disgraceful use of use for emergency outlets for foul water. The emergency being abused by thousands of times! 9 percent year on year price hikes helps dividends and shares it has not provided more clean water. EU directive prevents reservoirs as pointed out by Spellamn, former environment secretary back in 2010! Water capture and distribution is pathethetic compared to other countries who suffer far worse problems with drought i.e. Spain.
July 6, 2018
A bit like saying that we are going to trade with the rest of the world when we have no merchant navy..and not even a thought to building merchant ships
July 6, 2018
Yes this is another example of a post to which JR has no response.
Time for him to use his template – ‘I had no idea!’
July 6, 2018
The pathetic delays with a continuous signal of incompetence need to stop. The uncertain environment created by entering into an EU negotiation (which will run and run) is disgraceful. Reduction of uncertainty is what is needed for things to continue to run. The motivation for firms to think about relocating does not flow so much from what is decided, but from having a decision. The previous PM’s decision to run away, and this PM’s indecision are hugely damaging. As our host has continually explained things should be more simple. No ‘divorce’ bill, leave under WTO terms, offer free trade in services and good, increase maxfac with the world. If the Govt comes out with a time extension and/or a cabinet compromise the uncertainty and incompetent signalling will continue, the UK will lose out seriously.
There is no challenge for the cabinet to rise to, there is obviousness of implementing the referendum result and being clear about. The delays are truly shocking.
July 6, 2018
Why is every MP (bar one or two) such a complete and utter fantasist. Likely we will crash out next March, since the British government keeps submitting fantasist cherry-picked ideas, which Redwood, ever the comedian, laughingly calls “positive proposals”, to the EU. It will not be the case that “life will go on much as it did before”, except maybe twenty years down the road, when the country might just about have recovered, assuming that we ever end up with people running the country who are halfway competent and not fantasists. Perhaps Redwood and his fellow Brexit hardliners should tell us what they are advising the American oligarchs who pay them for their advice, rather than the silly nonsense they are feeding the marks who read this blog.
July 6, 2018
I think you expect too much of MPs even if they are Ministers. They do not show a level of intelligence or understanding of economics and are blinded by vested interests pushing their causes. The greatest deficiency is common sense.
July 6, 2018
Thereâs only one way to get what the majority of the country wants and that is leave immediately,just walk away then see how fast the Eu fold.Unfortunately the government is spineless plus the bulk are remainers.Say no more!!
July 6, 2018
Mrs May, I paraphrase – we shall take back control of our Laws, Money and Borders, we shall no longer be part of the Single Market or Customs Union – mentioned often in Parliament and various speeches.
I have just seen a pig fly by, and last night a cow jumped over the moon.
Or was it a bum steer?
July 6, 2018
Unfortunately we always seem to have a strong and influential group of people who are so against the idea of democracy extending to the âcommon manâ that they prefer the country to be run by another country.
These people are a combination of the ultra left, many well educated elites and the corporates who would all like to see a return to a feudal type of governance.
Last century the USSR was a popular choice but now their allegiance has turned to the German dominated EU as a suitable undemocratic organisation which they can corruptly influence and hence from which they can exert their power without the need for election to office.
Brexit is all about regaining our freedom and democratic institutions.
The next EU treaty will not have an article 50 clause.
July 6, 2018
John
A very interesting perspective with lots of opportunities but according to most independent sources not very realistic and not necessarily as positive as you make it out to be. (BoE, OECD, IoD, CBI and others.).
The electronic solution at the borders is according to Honda, going to cost them an extra ÂŁ 2.1 million a year and involve 40.000 new documents.
The ÂŁ13 billion you say we will save are already gone due to lower growth of lost income for the Treasury of ÂŁ 23 billion according to CER.
And John on certain things we will still be subject to ECJ, even if we do not wish to.
So I do not share your optimism with a WTO solution.
July 6, 2018
Honda don’t seem to have that problem in the US. Perhaps they should source more parts here, rather than use us as a spanner plant?
July 6, 2018
The BBC has been very busy this morning with abundant time given to Europhiles Morgan and Lydington telling us what a good thing BRINO will be.
July 6, 2018
Dear Mr. Redwood,
In my submission in response to your article of the 4th July entitled ‘The Chequers Meeting’, I wrote that senior conservatives have over the last 40 plus years conspired and colluded with the establishment in order to get the UK into the Common Market, to keep her in as it transformed into a European state and to keep the British people ignorant of what was going on until it was too late to do anything about it.
I said that the process was continuing to this day.
Here is a paragraph from an article in Brexit Central on 5th July by David Campbell Bannerman MEP who appeals to the Cabinet not to fall for ‘Euromush’ during the Chequers summit.
He says that people are baffled that the UK’s position has gone backwards since the 7th March when President Tusk offered the British PM the best, biggest and most ambitious FTA the EU has ever done. He writes that Party Members are amazed to learn how close we were to being exactly where we wanted to be.
Then he suggests ‘Is it because darker forces within the Government are determined not to honour the Brexit vote and are working in league with the EU to serve up a far worse deal â a âEuromushâ offer muddling the Single Market, Customs Union and ECJ jurisdiction, so as to justify a second referendum?’
Now I am no conspiracy theorist but…..didn’t Margaret Thatcher once say to someone ‘be careful, there are dark forces at work?’
July 6, 2018
Mr.Redwood, I say to you yet again, the British people rejected your type of insane Hard Brexit the result of the Conservatives vanity general election last year told you so.
Our lives will not get better if we leave the EU. The parking charges at local car parks will still be a rip off. The bins still may not get emptied, pot holes want get filled, Doctor appts will still have a 7-14 days wait, trains wont run on time, the Conservatives will still give us stealth taxes. Leaving the EU will make absolutely no change to these everyday things that blight peoples lives.
These are the sort of things that govern normal citizens lives, unlike the lives of you and your wealthy, elite , establishment Brexit chums.
Hopefully today at Chequers common sense will prevail and there will be resignations from Brexiteers.
July 6, 2018
And with half a million extra faces from the EU every year? What then in 4-5 years?
July 6, 2018
I see the BBC were falling over themselves this morning to show the blimp that will fly over Parliament Square when President Trump visits. Apparently Sidiq Khan (apologies can’t spell his name) has given permission. I am disgusted that an elected President of a country that we will want to trade with and have such close ties with will be belittled in such fashion. Just who do these tin pot mayors etc think they are? It’s about time they grew up and left the playground antics behind them. With people like this having such a great say in the future of our nation it is no wonder we are in the claggy.
July 6, 2018
The Merkel Blimp will be an interesting spectacle though.
July 6, 2018
Nothing more to say
July 6, 2018
I agree with your words, Mr Redwood.
The government has been awful in putting forward the positive case for Brexit.
By contrast, the dire scare stories are pathetic and appear conjured.
We need to offer free trade.
Then it is over to the eu and the member states who need to decide if they accept the offer.
Also, there is no point in embroiling the UK in their own debate about the Irish border. What the Irish decide to do is up to the Irish.
July 6, 2018
As always sensible suggestions, and realistic predictions. Normally in an argument I can understand (and argue) the other sides case. In the case of how the UK has run the brexit process I am unable to understand why it is so disorganised, e.g why there is no proper no-deal plan to put side by side with any deal (all you should pay for are the incremental benefits, without a no-deal plan you don’t know what those are). It would be fascinating to get your view on why the process is run in what appears to be an incompetent fashion – and by some very clever (you can by clever and foolish) people.
July 6, 2018
I’ve just had to check with my wife whether she changed our Sky contract without saying anything about it to me, because we now seem to be getting news broadcasts from some parallel universe in which Theresa May did not give a speech entitled:
âThe governmentâs negotiating objectives for exiting the EU”
in Lancaster House on January 17th 2017, and the contents of that speech which she did not give were not then incorporated into a White Paper …
Really this is the end of all the trust that I was prepared to repose in her when she took over as Tory leader and Prime Minister: it won’t matter what she says in the future, or where she says it, I will not believe a single word of what she says.
July 7, 2018
Dennis Cooper
Other than the typically intransigent Remainers/Remoaners, 17.4 Million are slowly coming to the same conclusion as yours. It will be interesting to see how these Brexit voters react, once it has finally sunk in that this Government has nefariously reneged on the people’s explicit wishes.
However, should they do nothing but simply acquiesce, then so be it, they have missed their once in a lifetime opportunity.
Thomas Jefferson quote summarizes the current situation nicely:
“Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the tempestuous sea of liberty!”
Let’s see if the British have the stomach for the fight?
July 6, 2018
It is apparent May thinks she can force the Brexiteers into submission as she has a majority of Remainers in Cabinet. One article in the press writes about Downing Street already briefing against the Brexiteers and that Liam Fox has been won round. It will apparently be spun that the Brexiteers have won a few concessions. Why is that supposed to satisfy the requirements of the Referendum result? That is simply unacceptable. We are supposed to be leaving, and our own PM has apparently diluted it down so much that we will be a vassal state and leaving in name only. Brexiteers must resign and then force a leadership election. Nothing short of that will do. Democracy has to be upheld, and for the PM of all people to be apparently openly defying that is an utter disgrace.
July 6, 2018
Looks as though Mrs May has been dillying and dallying about waiting for Frau Merkel to sort out her position in Germany. Perhaps she is right in that whatever “agreements ” are negotiated between Davis and Barnier count for nothing unless Germany agrees. It is after all the largest contributor to the EU coffers .
July 6, 2018
If you agree to Mays proposals I think Guidos blog survey is worth reading
order-order.com/2018/07/06/poll-tories-will-lose-votes-cross-brexit-red-lines/
Copied and pasted from Guido (at link above)
32% of voters would be less likely to vote Conservative if the Government agreed a deal which results in UK laws being subject to rulings by EU courts, compared to just 6% who would be more likely to support the party. Amongst Conservative voters, they would be more likely to change the party they back than increase their support by a ratio of more than 4:1 (46% to 10%)âŠ
More than a quarter of the public would be less likely to support the Conservative Party if a deal meant that the EU retained some or substantial control of the UKâs ability to negotiate our own free trade agreements, whilst only one in ten would be more likely to back the party.
27% of voters would be less likely to vote Conservative if the UK agreed to hand over billions of pounds to the EU every year as part of a free trade agreement, whilst just 9% would be more in favour of the party. Amongst Conservative voters, nearly three times as many would be less likely (35%) to support the party than more likely to vote Conservative (12%)âŠ
July 6, 2018
Those figures stated well before any act of betrayal has sunk in… This will be an electoral bloodbath for the Conservatives.
July 6, 2018
JR is correct and that is what brexit supporters want but the problem is Remainer May and most of her cabinet do not support Brexit. We are being cheated out of brexit before our eyes.
The plan to wear people down by making things as difficult as possible is in full swing with 5th columnists in this country doing the bidding of their EU masters at every turn. I simply do not understand why people in this country would work to undermine their country to help unelected selfish corrupt overpaid technocrats working largely for the German interest.
There cannot be progress under the cowardly indecisive ingratiating Treason May. The time has come to get those letters in and put a team of Brexiteers in place to deliver democracy.
I will never vote again in any election if we are cheated of the brexit we voted for and achieved against all the odds.
July 6, 2018
It is a great pity John Redwood, that you won’t be at Chequers today to combat Hammond’s biased nonsense.
July 6, 2018
So now we here Boris Johnson is taking advice from Cameron who got us into this mess and always wanted to stay. You couldnât make it up!
July 6, 2018
To your last sentence : Yes, it would be very good. So sad that these people who are meant to represent us are so scared to stand alone, proud and free, preferring the ‘security’ of having a master in Brussels. Reared since young on a diet of ‘Brussels is good for you’, many totally lack any pride or sense of independence.
I do blame Mrs May – by trying to be ‘balanced’ and ‘inclusive’, she has filled key posts with Remainders, now they have overwhelmed her initial democratic leanings to obey the referendum results with overwhelmingly negative briefings, so we are where we are. BUT those of us who voted to leave will fight on – we will fight against the apparently overwhelming forces of the Extreme Left Wing Media and Elites, we will fight them on the internet, in Parliament and on the beaches ….. we will never surrender.
July 6, 2018
May must go
July 6, 2018
“The UK economy will get an immediate boost from spending an extra ÂŁ12bn a year on public services or through tax cuts as we will save the money as soon as we leave. We can rebuild our fishing industry once we control our own waters and fish stocks. ”
Brexit is already costing more than what the UK is contributing in terms of lost growth and lower tax revenues.
White fish caught in the UK waters are disproportionately exported to Southern Europe where they are consumed. The UK will have to cut a deal if it want to continues to export, meaning quotas won’t change much
âWe do not intend to change the method for allocating existing quota.â as per Gove’s white paper on fisheries published today.
The same lies, repeated again and again will not make them true.
July 6, 2018
Tax revenues are up.
Lost growth is just an abstract guess of what might have beens.
First you said no growth and recession now it’s lower growth than we might have had.
Quotas are currrntly set by the EU
As an independent nation we can decide what quotas we went to allow.
July 6, 2018
That’s It..straight again from barnier..there can be no watering down of the EU four freedoms..in otherwords no cherrypicking..no having our cake and eating it..whatever comes out of the chequers meeting today will have to live up..otherwise..zilch
July 6, 2018
Mr Redwood states:
[quote]”I have been urging the government to table a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU and ask them to respond, as that offers a way through if the EU wants any deal.”[unquote]
But why offer them anything at all?
July 6, 2018
Groundhog day again, indeed!
John, with respect, can you please point me in the direction of any intrinsically historical UK Political event, with its protagonists at the helm, that has demonstrated meaningful “Honesty” “Integrity” “Office Competence” “Non-self-serving hypocrisy” “Loyally to the UK Citizens” ad infinitum……?
Encountering double-dealing Politicians, other than yourself and a few others, and watching historical events over the past 40 years, reveals to me, and all that you say in your comment with a straight face, is in any shape or form plausible?
I wait with no great anticipation that this important event will be any less significant than the past 40 years of selling Britain down the river……I trust this will not be the case, but the historical Political past has disappointed and believe today will be no different?
Regards
July 6, 2018
Well, the Cabinet can agree the Vassal state plan provided if (when) the EU reject it we leave the negotiations and remove May, put her out of her and our misery.
Thank you for everything you have done so far, just one last girding of the loins, shutting of ears to the wailing of the Elite and get a positive leader in place, you would do very nicely for me!
July 6, 2018
as there are no tariffs on services
No , of course there is the tiny matter of UK capital becoming worthless in the EU ( and visa versa) over night so a large slab of services will stop entirely . Genius .
Then there are the tariffs themselves and the loss of fish processing and EU fish markets and the fact that people who actually need trans European access to supplies or staff say it will not work
There is the stark fact that as of now the worst place in Europe to do business in Europe is the UK and those traitor remainy government figures that show a prodigious loss of income id we switch to what ever Trump leaves of the WTO ( China are not in it )
Who knows ( certainly not John Redwood ) what will happen we do know that with the cliff edge coming up fast contingency plans will have to go ahead now transition period or not . Sure life will go on , it did after the war while the country relapsed into bad teeth poverty and international humiliation
July 6, 2018
Why will UK capital become worthless overnight?
Please explain.
July 6, 2018
You kept telling us to vote Tory, not UKIP, because only the Tories could deliver a referendum. Well look where that seems to be getting us! What is the point of bragging about a referendum if you (collectively) ignore it.
May is playing a very dangerous game. EU arraogance has predictably led to the re-emergings of nasty strains of fascism on the continent. Donât imagine it couldnât happen here.
July 6, 2018
I actually don’t think the Conservatives understand what will happen to them if they overturn the brexit result.
The civil servants don’t care they will still have a job.
July 6, 2018
Off topic. I was reading yesterdays posts about water and Big Neils caught my eye.
I totally agree with him that solar panels could be fitted to all new build houses especially in light of the fact that we are all going to have to drive an electric car eventually. If the climate change crap etc is so important then why isn’t this government legislation already? No subsidies to be given to solar panels anymore. Just the bonus of free energy when the sunshines. That should be enough incentive. Just as the issue of water saving products is important to be built into new homes, so are energy saving devices but without money given to them which is ultimately borne by other users.
July 6, 2018
It is obvious that Barnier will reject whatever May puts in her latest ‘alignment’ plan/White Paper. Rightly so, as her (or rather, Robbins’s) ideas are of Heath-Robbins-onian complexity, and impossible to carry out in the time given, and as such are *intended* to be rejected by the EU.
The next stage is for her to say, oh well, nothing for it but to rejoin the single market via the EEA, after all, all those lovely Germans in charge of Airbus and Jaguar know what’s best for us. And, gosh, it’s now only a few months from Brexit, we can’t possibly get our borders and systems ready for WTO by then. The civil service wouldn’t like it – far too much like hard work.
She must be stopped in her tracks.
July 7, 2018
mancunius
She must be stopped in her tracks.
Never going to happen none of them have the will or the balls to get rid of her and Hammond. Two fingers up to the 17.4 voters who wanted out.
July 6, 2018
May tells Tory right, join the left or get out of the party.
July 6, 2018
I now read this from The Spectator (Evening Blend email):
“David Cameron met Boris Johnson at the Carlton Club last night (it was a long-standing arrangement, apparently) and persuaded him that he should not resign from the government over Brexit today, because, despite it being the âworst of all worldsâ, âTheresa Mayâs compromise plan is the only one that Parliament will accept. âSo Boris is to behave,ââ a source tells the Timesâ Sam Coates.”
This is unacceptable threatening that Parliament will not honour democracy and uphold the Referendum result. Boris Johnson should stand up for the people of this country and not those Parliamentarians who seem intent on betraying us.
July 6, 2018
If even Nick Clegg can see that this is not Brexit. Where are the Tory Brexiteer MPs? Are they reading a different script?
“Former Liberal Democrat Leader Nick Clegg tweeted Friday morning: âI hate to say this, but Brexiteers would be right to reject PMâs plan.
âDual EU/UK tariffs would create vast red tape, smugglers would boom, Parliament would be humiliated. MPs would rubber stamp [goods and agriculture] rules from Brussels â right to refuse would never be used as costs too high.â
He added: âBetter to put this costly, bureaucratic, unworkable proposal out of its misery ASAP. Whatever Brexit means, it canât be this.â (Source Breitbart London)
July 6, 2018
“Above all the UK will be a self governing democracy again”
Would be nice but it never was. We don’t even elect the prime minister but just somebody put forward by either the tory establishment or the trades unions. Added to that we have an unelected head of state and house of lords to which failed politicians are elevated upon retirement. What a joke.
July 6, 2018
Add to this the fact that those who are elected to government do not represent the majority. The last two single party governments in the UK had just 36.9% and 35.2% of the votes respectively.
July 6, 2018
Under PR several minor parties cook up a new manifesto no one really voted for and rule with similar percentages.
July 7, 2018
Under PR, governments are comprised of representatives who represent something like a majority of the people, not just over a third.
And if you want an example of cooking up a new manifesto, reading the comments of others on yesterday’s Chequers meeting, this is exactly what the UK’s FPTP Cabinet did yesterday. The difference under a PR system is that losing popularity and votes translates directly to losing representatives, unlike under FPTP where it often doesn’t.
July 6, 2018
We get to vote every few years for our local MP
Did you vote for any of the technocrats in the EU councillors or commissioners Margaret?
July 7, 2018
Do you mean civil servants? Do we vote for anybody else apart from MPs?
July 6, 2018
Groundhog day again, indeed:
– Just three UK registered companies hold 61% of all fishing rights in English waters.
– 44% of English and Welsh fishing rights are owned by foreign compagnies, sold years ago by British fishermen themselves.
– Some UK fishermen are actually hoarding up fishing rights on vessels that never cast a net.
Is anybody really believing like some ideologues appear to do that we will ârebuild our fishing industry once we control our own waters and fish stocksâ?
Or is this babble coming out of one of the Tetraodontidae species?
July 6, 2018
Sorry John, Forget any other day apart from the day the UK voted to leave the EU. It will no doubt go on and on and on and the courts may well rule to overturn the referendum on account some remoaners thought we spent too much money on our campaign. There are copious numbers of remainers (48 per cent) that want nothing more than to stop Brexit because they don’t like (even despise) being defeated, getting it wrong, on the wrong side, not understanding how the EU want to rule us after Germany lost the great war and ww2. I also agree there is absolutely no worse feeling than waking up every morning facing the fact that you were beaten in a fair referendum…
July 6, 2018
“how the EU want to rule us after Germany lost the great war and ww2”
You forget that we begged to join the EU with the support of Germany who risked falling out with de Gaulle who repeatedly said ‘NON’ to our membership.
No, in Mrs May we get a leader who will ensure the sort Brexit we wantâa modern version of the Charge of the Light Brigade. Bold, adventurous and everyone gets killed.
July 7, 2018
You can relax Margaret.
It seems we are remaining after all.
July 6, 2018
What sort of PM do we have in Theresa May who cannot apparently respect the referendum result, and who does not have the wit or the statesmanship to speak out about Sadiq Khan approving what must be one of the grossest insults to a President of the USA.
Sorry, but I find Theresa May absolutely unsuited for the position of PM and sorely lacking in the necessary qualities to lead our country. I am both ashamed and embarrassed by her. She does not deserve respect from President Trump, a very great President who is restoring the fortunes of the USA and bringing back pride in being anAmerican.
Please let us have a leadership challenge. This all reflects appallingly on the whole of the Tory Party, let alone Labour and S Khan.
July 6, 2018
THE TORY PARTY DIED TODAY
YOU HAVE ELECTED A LEADER THAT HAS BETRAYED THE UK, DEMOCRACY AND ITS PEOPLE
SHE IS NEITHER A TORY NOR A CONSERVATIVE
MAY IS AN EU TROJAN HORSE AND THE UNPRINCIPLED RABBLE OF TORY MPS IN THE COMMONS WILL GO DOWN IN HISTORY AS SHAMED
I HAVE BEEN A TORY ALL MY LIFE. NO MORE. I SHALL NEVER VOTE FOR THEM NOR SHALL I CONTRIBUTE TO THEM
MY PARTY IS A DISGRACE AND A STAIN ON MY COUNTRY
BETRAYAL IS TOO WEAK A WORD TO DESCRIBE THE APPALLING ACTIONS OF THIS WEASEL OF A PM
July 6, 2018
Seconded, Duncan. If what we hear is true then worst fears confirmed. So much for the Tory Brexiter MPs and the Conservative Party. Utter disgust with the lot of them.
July 6, 2018
and wake up to reality , too bad you were asleep in the mentime
July 7, 2018
Bit impolite hans considering Duncan has posted every day for months giving his well reasoned views on post referendum UK politics.
And you?
July 10, 2018
hans
More abject rudeness and atrocious spelling from you. Please up your game considerably
July 6, 2018
Sadly I have to agree with everything you say Duncan.
I have emailed my MP to inform him that I , a lifelong tory of 78 years will never vote again for the unprincipled trash that inhabits both houses of parliament.
July 7, 2018
Duncan
Well said you are not alone,
July 7, 2018
I’m with you Duncan. I look forward to seeing your comments. My critical views are suppressed by Mr Redwood and are no longer allowed to be read.
July 6, 2018
Brexit’s just going to be a breeze. Nothing for us to worry our pretty little heads about, thanks to Mr Redwood’s wonderfully reassuring bedside manner. In fact our chaotic politics reflect the sick state of Britain post-referendum. Brexit is already a disaster before it’s even happened and between now and March all we’ll see is damage limitation.
July 6, 2018
Cabinet meeting result: We are to be tied to the EU rules on goods indefinitely…
What on earth did we all bother voting for?
July 6, 2018
Can this be true?
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/985123/brexit-news-theresa-may-cabinet-chequers-eu-trade-plan-latest
Victory for May: Cabinet BACKS Soft Brexit plan as Prime Minister vows to speed up EU exit
July 6, 2018
If the news of chequers is correct then the public will lose any remaining faith they had in politicians
Cannot see how the conservatives can with the next election
Hopefully a new party will be formed or ukip gets regenerated
Personally I am disgusted and my default position will be to stay at home on election day
I hope the conservative bexiteers resign the whip or some other radical action
Staggering absolutely staggering
July 6, 2018
Headline in the DT 06-07-2018: “Cabinet agrees Brexit deal that keeps Britain tied to EU rules on goods indefinitely”. If this is true, we aren’t leaving. It will lock in chaos, demoralisation and subservience for decades. Theresa May unerringly chooses the wrong path. She will be despised more than Heath or even Blair.
July 6, 2018
And still no walk out by Gove Boris or Fox?
We voted to leave we did not vote to half leave
Neither did we vote to have another deal with them or anyone else
If this is a democracy then why is the government not following the peoples decision?
July 6, 2018
I hope you accept your share of the blame of this terrible deal that May is conceding. Part-time Brexit focus and propping up the most incompetent PM in history have contributed to this shameful reversal of the referendum result.
July 6, 2018
Built into these talks should be an agreement that all British born who want to retain their EU citizenship should be facilitated..just like the people of NI who can be British, Irish or both and EU citizens as well.
July 6, 2018
Looks like the UK government is not giving up and wants to tell the UK people that there are ways to deal with the brexit problem that will ot be painful. But this apparent reult is still far short of a serious attempt at negotiating. It is unacceptable for thr Eu and the UK side knows this very well. Of course there will be sympathetic, polite noises. But that doe snot mean consent.
July 6, 2018
Mr Redwood – I rarely disagree with you on many issues. Unlike most of your party I am a real conservative.
I promise you I will never vote conservative again.
July 6, 2018
Come on John get that letter in for may to go
Nobody likes a straightforward liar like she has been
July 7, 2018
Mr Redwood is part of the problem. He is a member of the Conservative party and a Tory MP. Don’t look to him to do anything that may hurt the party.
July 6, 2018
THE TORY PARTY WILL PAY FOR THE TREACHERY WE HAVE SEEN TONIGHT
I AM SPEECHLESS AT THE ARROGANCE AND CONTEMPT SHOWN FOR DEMOCRACY BY THE PARTY I HAVE ALWAYS SUPPORTED
MAY IS A STAIN ON OUR NATION
AND THE TORIES HAVE SUNK EVEN LOWER THAN MARXIST LABOUR
ONE CAN ONLY HOPE THAT THE PARTY I HAVE SUPPORTED ALL MY LIFE IS PUNISHED
HEARTBROKEN AND DEFEATED BY THIS DISGUSTING PRIME MINISTER
July 6, 2018
From what I have heard, so far, it’s a total stitch up.
Let’s hope Barnier rejects it and we leave with no deal.
No deal is certainly better than this one !!
July 6, 2018
âThe UK would apply the UKâs tariffs and trade policy for goods intended for the UK, and the EUâs tariffs and trade policy for goods intended for the EU – becoming operational in stages as both sides complete the necessary preparations.
âThis would enable the UK to control its own tariffs for trade with the rest of the world and ensure businesses paid the right or no tariff – in the vast majority of cases upfront, and otherwise through a repayment mechanism.â
These weasel words mean de facto being in hock to the EU customs tariff and EU corporates. You think Australia, for example, will treat us as taking goods from them tariff-free when sky high tariffs are being collected at source with possible repayment some time later??
July 6, 2018
I see that Nigel Farage has commented that the government’s position is just the start and more concessions will follow once May meets with Barnier. Then will follow the delay in the date for leaving. He has been very perceptive in the past, and I suspect he is right. the aim for May et al is to effectively stay in the EU. Look at the statement about freedom of movement coming to an end. (See Sun report) It is immediately contradicted by stating that there would be a movement area established that would permit individuals and workers to move freely between UK and EU countries. That is only one example of claims made by the PM which are apparently inaccurate. Look at the whole raft of regulations etc that we are going to continue to align with and enforce. We are supposed to be breaking free and gaining advantages from that.
July 6, 2018
I thought tony left number 10 years ago with his third-way policies, you can’t believe all you read and see in the media can you.
July 6, 2018
It got tony written all over it.
July 7, 2018
Sad day for the country.
Kippers every one of them.
Two faced and gutless.
May as well handover the keys to Corbyn. The electorate will rise up against the party especially those who said that they would fight for us to get us free from the EU, Who are these “new kids on the block” who are going to replace them if they had rebelled? Smoke and mirrors all of it and those in the cabinet who have signed up for this sack of worms instead of standing on their beliefs should resign and unite to do the peoples bidding and remove her from office.
July 7, 2018
“This land of such dear souls, this dear dear land,
Dear for her reputation through the world,
Is now leased out, I die pronouncing it,
Like to a tenement or pelting farm:
England, bound in with the triumphant sea
Whose rocky shore beats back the envious siege
Of watery Neptune, is now bound in with shame,
With inky blots and rotten parchment bonds:
That England, that was wont to conquer others,
Hath made a shameful conquest of itself.”
Richard II Act I Sc.I
July 7, 2018
It’s now quite clear :
Brexit does NOT mean Brexit.
If the EU accepts May’s “offer,” Britain will not be an independent country like, for example, the USA. We will be subservient to Brussels on laws related to trade and Heaven knows what else.
Why is May offering to give away a grovelling free trade deal in goods, in which the EU have a massive trade surplus with us, but not demanding a similar deal on services where we have the surplus ? That is crazy. It is not a deal, it is abject surrender.
The next demand from Barnier will be regular contributions to the EU budget in return for the limited trade deal they might condescend to grant to us.
If May agrees to that, the Conservative party will, indeed be toast.
We have been totally shafted by an ineffective Prime Minister who, from day one, has had no idea of the principles behind a negotiation. Margaret Thatcher would never have sanctioned this kind of deal. The very idea is ludicrous.
Let’s hope Brussels is so determined to punish us that they reject the “offer”. May won’t survive the humiliation and we can then leave on WTO terms and hold our heads up high.
July 7, 2018
I think Brussels (meetings with key Europeans prior to telling the Cabinet) already knew what May was going to offer and her proposals had tacit approval, at least the proposals were considered by Brussels to be on the right pathway for vassal state status and eventual rejoining. They will wring more concessions out of the willing May, and then keep postponing the leave date. they hope that everyone would then become so fed up with delay and so on, and angered by a deal worse than original membership, that “the people” so despised by the political elite would be willing to rejoin the EU.
Tory Brexiter MPs have no choice in my view. They have to mount a leadership challenge. I believe that Gove and Johnson, among others in Cabinet, have effectively ruled themselves out of being a new leader, by dint of their apparent betrayal at Chequers. Noone will trust them, particularly as Johnson was seen to cave in to some sweet talking by Cameron apparently, and Gove was key apparently to get the final dissenters back on board to support May. None of this will be forgotten, Mr Redwood. It is a defining moment for the country, and of course the Conservative Party.
July 7, 2018
We have been totally shafted by an ineffective Prime Minister who, from day one, has had no idea of the principles behind a negotiation. Margaret Thatcher would never have sanctioned this kind of deal. The very idea is ludicrous.
>
remember those Vatican meetings on people trafficking?
July 8, 2018
John Redwood ‘ Planes will still fly into Heathrow from the continent’
Where is the detail ?. EASA, CAA, Open skies agreements ?.. reciprocal arrangements?…..
Mrs May barely understands the difference between a customs union and a single market ( most of the media and politicians have a similarly sketchy grasp of this). Yet we are expected to believe these people are capable of negotiating a deal on air traffic and the maintenance requirements of aircraft?. Lets get real.