Greens and AFD slash support for Mrs Merkel’s CDU party and for her the SPD, her coalition partner.

Exit polls confirm the polls prior to the Hesse state elections. This is another serious drop in support for the two main parties in Germany’s grand coalition government. Once again the parties becoming much more popular are the Greens and the AFD, parties attacking the EU establishment view.

Alice Weidel, the leader of the AFD in the German Parliament and effectively the Leader of the Opposition, recently made a speech supporting the right of every EU member state to decide to leave the EU if they wished. She was highly critical of Mrs Merkel’s model of the EU, attacking the idea of further integration, disagreeing with common budgets and freedom of movement, and worrying whether Germany was being led into providing too much financial support for the rest of the EU. She wishes to see the Commission’s right to propose new laws removed. She recommended that the EU treat the UK better, respecting the democratic judgement of UK voters.

The forces ranged against the increasing power of the EU federal state are growing. The next question is will the SPD, reluctant members of Mrs Merkel’s coalition government, carry on given the big damage it is doing to their voter base.

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  1. Richard1
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 5:40 am | Permalink

    Although the greens are fanatically pro EU everywhere. One of the alarming features of EU membership is the extent to which it attracts support from the leftist lunatic fringe – it must mean leftist environmental fanatics see the EU as a good way of floisting their silly policies on us all without the need to argue their case and win elections.

    • Richard1
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 6:02 am | Permalink

      Which is of course a major change from 20-30 years ago when the left was broadly opposed to EC membership because of its restrictions on statism and protectionism within the EC.

      • APL
        Posted October 29, 2018 at 7:16 am | Permalink

        Richard1: “Which is of course a major change from 20-30 years ago”

        The ‘green’ organisations have infiltrated the EU in that time frame, it’s now a major source of ‘green’ funds. Of course they support it.

    • Newmania
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 7:51 am | Permalink

      Far left Mr Corbyn has not moved in this period and the Greens are in two minds about it.

      • Richard1
        Posted October 29, 2018 at 6:02 pm | Permalink

        Mr Corbyn is deliberately facing two ways and is allowing it to be thought he’s sort of in favour of brexit and sort of against and might favour a second referendum but wants to be free to impose his mad confiscatory policies but wants to be closely aligned with the EU…it is utter humbug, albeit it may he is simply too dim to see the contradictions.

        The greens in the UK are most certainly fanatically pro-EU. hardly surprising when you consider the plethora of unscientific guff emanating from the EU on everything from GM crops, to fracking to wind farms – the direction of EU regulation these days v much accords with the green world view. Owen Patterson has set out clearly how the green blob has an automatic seat at the table at the EU when formulating environmental policy, even I think he said, in ministerial meetings! in weighing up the pros and cons of Brexit, the potential for freedom from the EU’s green crap is one of the prizes.

      • NickC
        Posted October 29, 2018 at 8:28 pm | Permalink

        Newmania, As slippery as a bar of soap in the bath, the left’s definition of “left” varies with the day of the week. So Tony Blair was hailed as the left’s triumph, but now he is called “right-wing”. Frankly “left-wing” and “right-wing” are now useless as descriptors, the terms have merely become abuse. As for Corbyn, he voted against more EU in the HoC, but stated he voted Remain. That is “moving”, as far as I’m concerned.

    • Bryan Harris
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 8:01 am | Permalink

      @Richard1 – Yes, we need to remind people that the greens are as socialist, and silly, as all the other main left of centre parties in the EU, and Europe.

      Green EU policies are one reason we waste so much of our taxes…

    • rose
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 11:32 am | Permalink

      Greens didn’t use to be pro EU. Nigel Farage used to vote Green in those days, because he could no longer vote for his erstwhile Thatcherite party.

      It really doesn’t make sense for Greens to support the EU as membership has been disastrous for our environment and for Eastern Europe’s. But modern Greens don’t care about the environment or population, only their no borders extremism.

  2. Peter Wood
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 5:49 am | Permalink

    Question: If Germany left the EU, could the remaining nations maintain an EU system similar to the one we know now?

    My answer is no, with the obvious deduction that the EU as we know it, is effectively a German controlled trans-national bureaucracy.

    • rose
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 10:40 am | Permalink

      Surely Macron will have a jolly good Napoleonic try? He would make up the shortfall through Continent-wide taxation, including us.

  3. Nig l
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 6:25 am | Permalink

    Yes, if only our leaders and especially the Remainers would recognise the decay of creeping federalism and the growing acknowledgment elsewhere that it needs to stop.

    The EU in pushing out the repayment date on Greek paper to almost infinity showed it’s desperation to avoid a formal default leading to the German Treasury facing a massive write down and that spectre is looming large again with Italy.

    The Germans have always been the most avid supporters of the EU much to do with their history so it comes to something when we read such comments from a leading politician.

    An Italian bond default or a greater realisation by the German people how much they truly have at risk will hasten the demise of the EU as we currently know it. We are contributing to that hence hence their leaders and ours consorting to prevent our fall out.

    • oldtimer
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 7:23 am | Permalink

      That is why they need the £40bn May and Robbins have conceded. It helps them kick the can down the road a little longer and all at our expense.

      • Andy
        Posted October 29, 2018 at 4:38 pm | Permalink

        Um, the £40bn of my children’s generation money that you voted to pay as part of your fetish for a nostalgic – and inaccurate – view of an isolated little England.

        • Edward2
          Posted October 29, 2018 at 10:21 pm | Permalink

          First it is all our money, every one of us.
          Secondly brexit means a return to an outward looking world view UK, instead of being just focussed on the EU.

          • hans christian ivers
            Posted October 30, 2018 at 4:19 pm | Permalink


            the rest of the Eu is not just focused on the EU so why should this be the case for us

          • Edward2
            Posted October 31, 2018 at 12:06 am | Permalink

            The EU can focus where it wants
            But released from concentrating on the EU we can open our eyes and trade with the rest of the world.
            Where the real future and growth is.

  4. Duncan
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 6:52 am | Permalink

    After seeing Merkel and Macron holding hands with Erdogan and Putin yesterday at a meeting to discuss Syria was all the evidence I need to conclude that the west and its democratic values are dangerously compromised

    I have always felt that Merkel was far more than she seems and she’s now showing her true colours and is indeed is the utterly preposterous Macron.

    It is my belief that we are on the verge of a new dark age with respect to our freedoms. The recent ECHR ruling on free speech should surely send a shiver down the spines of all freedom loving peoples.

    We must not pivot away from our US allies towards the increasingly authoritarian EU and its flirtation with Putin and the utterly terrifying Erdogan.

    • Bryan Harris
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 7:57 am | Permalink

      @Duncan – Very good points…. She has been working on Putin for a very long time to accept the coming world order – If she has made progress with him then that will be bad for us.

      • Mitchel
        Posted October 29, 2018 at 1:42 pm | Permalink

        I don’t believe Mrs Merkel has any significant influence on Mr Putin-the influence is increasingly in the other direction-as Eurasia integrates driven by the Sino-Russian Entente,Berlin in the post-Merkel era is likely to want to be the third pole of that axis-and,yes,that would be very bad news for the UK-USA axis,particularly for the UK-the US could go back to isolation but where do we fit?

        I note that Russo-German trade is up 24% in the first eight months of this year with a widening balance in favour of Russia(what sanctions?) and many German companies are chomping at the bit to get involved in the massive infrastructure programmes that are getting under way to connect the peoples,markets,transport networks and capitals of Eurasia.

        The West as a concept is looking like a spent force.A 500 year cycle may have turned.How do we adapt to it?!

    • Hope
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 9:36 am | Permalink

      Germany depends on Russia for its energy and economic output. Without it Germany could no longer survive. Again it took Trump to make the point that no one wanted to mention as it might offend Germany.

      Will Germany ever make proper sanctions against Russia? Could it afford to, no of course not. Germany wants to gently use the EU to land grab from Russia. The EU depends on an economically strong Germany for the weak Eurozone to function. The EU deliberately turned a blind eye to the German surplus against its rules to keep the EU project alive. This suits Germany as it provides it a controlling hand over all of the EU, hence why everyone visits Merkel, not the other 26!

    • Iago
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 10:10 am | Permalink

      I agree in every detail with your grim warning, Duncan.

    • rose
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 10:43 am | Permalink

      Remember free speech has long been forbidden on much of the Continent. Especially in Austria where they imprisoned an eccentric and discredited British historian for three years at the age of 67. No-one could argue he was endangering the peace.

    • margaret howard
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 11:01 am | Permalink


      “After seeing Merkel and Macron holding hands with Erdogan and Putin yesterday at a meeting to discuss Syria was all the evidence I need to conclude that the west and its democratic values are dangerously compromised”

      “The west and its democratic values dangerously compromised”

      Do you mean like the US and UK illegally invading countries in the region and destabilising the whole of the Middle East causing millions of terrified refugees flooding into Europe?

      I prefer them holding hands quite frankly!

      • Edward2
        Posted October 29, 2018 at 1:19 pm | Permalink

        If you have proof it was illegal then tell the authorities.

      • Mitchel
        Posted October 29, 2018 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

        The reaction to the Khashoggi affair tells us much about western values.

      • NickC
        Posted October 29, 2018 at 7:57 pm | Permalink

        Margaret Howard, It is fatuous to claim that “the US and UK illegally invad[ed] countries in the region”. It may have been truly bad, it may be ill-advised, but “illegal” it isn’t. Any nation can make war on any other.

        And the middle east was already “destabilised” – intra-Islamic terrorism; aggression towards Israel; Iraq invading Kuwait; Iran vs Iraq war; persecution of Christians; ISIS; Muslim Brotherhood; Muslim takeover of Lebanon; proxy KSA vs Iran war in Yemen; and so on. We were certainly foolish to get sucked in. But that is what it was – being sucked in – not starting a war where all was peace and light.

        As for the immigrants, more are from Syria and the rest of Africa than from Iraq or even Afghanistan. The vast majority of migrants over the last decade were not the result of the USA led coalitions invading Iraq or Afghanistan.

        • hans christian ivers
          Posted October 30, 2018 at 4:21 pm | Permalink


          Was it actually sanctioned by the UN? as we had hoped?

          • Edward2
            Posted October 31, 2018 at 12:07 am | Permalink

            Does it need to be sanctioned by the UN?

    • Bob
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 11:07 am | Permalink

      Well the effective reintroduction of blasphemy laws by the ECHR doesn’t apply to all ideologies. The Irish removed theirs after Stephen Fry’s blasphemous comments failed to enrage sufficient numbers of Christians. It’s all about numbers.

      • rose
        Posted October 29, 2018 at 1:27 pm | Permalink

        Not only that, but there is no longer real protection for Christians as there should be under our law of religious toleration. Not only was it the case that the Italian Commissioner under Berlusconi was rejected by the Northern Europeans in the EU for being a Roman Catholic, but here it is seriously mooted that JRM could not be PM, and Tim Farron was hounded out of the leadership of his party. Quite apart from the cake case.

        I fear this ECHR ruling may have set a precedent, even though it purports just to uphold Austrian law. Hounding and harrying of Christians will be just fine, but no offence of any kind must be given Elsewhere, and as we saw in the craven response of the Army to the cadets being photographed with TR, it will not be we who decide what is offensive.

    • Mitchel
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 1:58 pm | Permalink

      Are you,Duncan,not aware that it was the USA that wanted an ever more closely integrated and ever less democratically accountable EU that they could control;something which the CIA worked tirelessly for?

      Are you not aware that ,Trump’s blather aside,the US Defence and Foreign Policy Establishments (still infested with neo-cons) most definitely do not want us to the leave the EU(the UK is one of their anchors-or as De Gaulle would have said “a Trojan Horse of Atlanticism”)which is one of the main reasons,I believe,why we are not leaving?

      Any Brexiteer who believes the USA to be a friend needs a rethink and,even where Trump is concerned,which part of “America First” do you not understand?

  5. Duncan
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 7:39 am | Permalink

    I see Weidel’s invite to the Oxford Union is coming under intense pressure from liberal left fascists who resent having to be exposed to competing opinions.

    Of course these self same people will no doubt embrace Merkel as she holds hands with Erdogan. A leader that’s crushed Turkish democracy, imprisoned journalists, compromised the Turkish criminal justice system and imposed limits of liberties.

    Why are my taxes being used to finance authoritarianism across the British university system?

  6. Pete Else
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 7:49 am | Permalink

    How do voters in Germany look at the ruination of Europe in general and Germany in particular and then vote for the ex Stasi communist Merkel? What mental gymnastics are required to be able to overlook what she is and what she has done?

    • Andy
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

      Define ‘ruination of Europe’. I’m guessing, for you, it will mean migration.

      Western Europe is more prosperous than ever.

      It has been at peace for 70+ years – the longest period in centuries.

      Living standards are their highest ever.

      Life expectancy is its highest ever.

      Workers and consumers are properly protected.

      Crime is low.

      The environment is looked after.

      I guess your definition of ‘ruination’is migration – and not of white, Christian Europeans.

      • libertarian
        Posted October 30, 2018 at 10:35 am | Permalink


        Western Europe is getting less prosperous ( unemployment at epic levels)

        There have been 35 wars, revolutions, coups and insurrections in Europe since 1948

        In a number of EU countries there is NO minimum wage , and very few workers rights

        EU has the worst environmental record outside of China. Germany is still burning dirty coal ( lignite)

        You are ignorant , dont you ever do any research ?

        • hans christian ivers
          Posted October 30, 2018 at 4:22 pm | Permalink


          Actually quite a number of the facts raised by Andy are correct .

          And stop being so rude it is totally unnecessary

          • Edward2
            Posted October 31, 2018 at 12:08 am | Permalink

            But is the EU the cause?

    • margaret howard
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

      Well I have just come back from there. Didn’t see much ruination but a thriving country and roads without potholes – hurrah!

      And Frau Merkel was re-elected for a fourth term and has been in office now for nearly 12 years – a record not equalled by any political leader in modern times.

      And Frau Merkel is a member of the CDU – the Christian Democratic Union of Germany – a liberal-conservative political party.

      As for what she has done –

      In 2015 Time magazine named her “Person of the year”

      Merkel was the only world leader with enough compassion to alleviate the tragedy of refugees caused by the illegal wars and invasions by US/UK which has destabilised the whole region. Millions had already fled before she offered some hope to the survivors.

      It only confirms what intelligent, far seeing people everywhere already know – that she was the only leader who displayed the courage and generosity of spirit befitting a special human being. Past winners include Winston Churchill, Gandhi

      • Edward2
        Posted October 30, 2018 at 8:28 am | Permalink

        An increasing number of the German electorate from 2015 onwards do not agree with your flattering view of Merkel.

  7. Bryan Harris
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 7:54 am | Permalink

    Yes it’s good news that merkel is losing support – that doesn’t stop her though from leading the EU by the nose… She is by far the strongest (willed) German leader the EU have had, and takes advantage of this by pursuing her aims for controlling all aspects of the EU.
    The fact that more greens won votes will not help the balance of power in Germany or the EU, for as we know, greens are left wing, and will simply help to prop up merkel.

    We shouldn’t forget where merkel came from – the old East Germany, and it becomes ever more clear that her indoctrinated communism runs deep within her and is very much alive, and it shows with her intentions and control of EU policies.

    • hans christian ivers
      Posted October 31, 2018 at 7:13 am | Permalink

      Bryan Harris,

      Her up bringing has made her much more liberal and she now appreciated freedom so yo are far off the mark.

      Do you understand German politics?

  8. Stred
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 7:55 am | Permalink

    The Greens will form a coalition with Merkel and other lefty loons. Germany is brilliant in technical engineering but has it’s core of idealistic illogical dopes who make mistakes. At least it isn’t with tanks this time. But they do have an influence on EU energy policy and Merkel plays their tune when she decides to close very safe nukes when half built and then having to use dirty coal to supply electricity when the wind and sun are not available. As a result they are the worst CO2 emitters in Europe and have very expensive domestic electricity. Of course, her apprentice Mrs May is following her by only ordering one nuke and choosing the only type in the world that still doesn’t work, costs much more and takes 3 times as long to build.

  9. ChrisS
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 7:56 am | Permalink

    The problems the main parties are having in Germany have their roots in Merkel’s open door migration policy, never seriously challenged by the SPD or the Greens, for that matter. Also, German taxpayers are starting to realise that Brexit is going to cost them dear because Brussels will not reduce the budget to take account of the loss of the UK’s £10bn pa contribution.

    Those Germans that follow activities in Brussels more closely know that further integration is really going to put up their contribution to the budget. Most have not appreciated that Merkel has allowed Draghi to effectively collectivise Eurozone debt by the back door.

    German taxpayers are on the hook for hundreds of billions of Euros with no hope of ever recovering more than a small fraction of it. When the Euro fails, they will recover none at all and be faced with an exchange rate with almost every country they do business with that will jump by between 25-50% .

    The failure of the Euro will mark the end of the two main parties in Germany as they will rightly be blamed for putting the Country in such a vulnerable position in the interest of the EU Project.

    Is it any wonder that Merkel will do literally anything to keep the Euro going ?

    • hans christian ivers
      Posted October 31, 2018 at 1:10 pm | Permalink


      Your assumption that the EURO will fail is totally flawed

  10. Adam
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 8:09 am | Permalink

    Germany is a nation of high-quality folk whose lives are spoilt in part by EU nonsense, with knock-on effects hampering others.

    If Germany follows the UK lead to free itself of EU shackles, much happiness may prevail throughout the continent, with the EU’s demise. Happy nations thrive in contentment & enjoy good neighbourly relations.

    The prospect of averting conflict within Europe may well be improved when the EU no longer exists.

  11. Narrow Shoulders
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 8:13 am | Permalink

    Yes, it does seem to be a very large protest vote. Those who couldn’t bring themselves to protest AfD voted Green.

    Your party should pay particular heed Mr Redwood. The party in power is increasingly being punished by voters when it is perceived that they are not following the mandate. And yours is not

    Scarily Labour could be the beneficiary as our first past the post system encourages votes for a winner rather than an opinion.

    We need more local and national single issue parties to bring pressure to bear.

  12. hefner
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 8:24 am | Permalink

    AfD got 11% in Bavaria, 12% in Hesse, in an electoral system much closer to a proportional one than anything for GEs in the UK. How much does JR think the right-wing Brexiter party would get if the UK were to get rid of FPTP and the Conservative and Labour parties were to be broken along more honest lines? Right now the ERG appears to represent 70-80 MPs, a very rough estimate would give 10-12% (1/4 of the 320 CUP MPs). Not such a different situation from the German one. No reason to go on bragging.

    • rose
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 11:43 am | Permalink

      The difference in our two situations is that Germans have to believe in the EU as a way of escaping their recent history. We don’t.

      • margaret howard
        Posted October 29, 2018 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

        You obviously haven’t studied our own history very closely.

    • forthurst
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

      Over 50% voted to leave the EU. The ERG does not in any way represent the potential political alignments and platforms which would replace the liblabcon under a fair electoral system.

    • mancunius
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 3:54 pm | Permalink

      Luckily the people have spoken on this issue, and they decided to leave the EU bag and baggage, customs union, single market, and all.

      The House voted obediently to leave the EU: we shall leave on 29 March 2019.
      So your guessed ‘rough estimate’ of how a PR House of Commons might be constituted is completely irrelevant.

    • Narrow Shoulders
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 8:02 pm | Permalink

      If voters felt their choice would yield representation I think you would find voters turned out for anti EU parties in greater numbers than 10% in the UK.

      The two main issues preventing UKIP (as was before the referendum) breaking through were the successful portrayal of any organisation that criticises immigration or foreign constructs as racist and thus reducing their draw to the faint hearted and UK voters’ desire to vote for the winner which was unlikely to be UKIP.

      The UK electorate needs to be educated that a vote can be an expression of opinion and make a difference that way rather than voting for the winner. Every vote can count. Even spoiled papers.

    • NickC
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 8:18 pm | Permalink

      Hefner, 17.4 million people voted to Leave. Clearly that number could not all be pensioners (despite claims by Andy), and nor could they have been all “right-wing” (despite claims by you). In my experience of canvassing, Leaves were from all parties and none – and much more informed and motivated than Remains.

      The Leave deal that was offered by the government and both campaigns was to cease having any more treaty ties to the EU than we have with other nations. Instead the government, due to its extreme in-built Remain bias, has trashed what we voted for. Chequers is a revolving-door Remain betrayal.

      Do you seriously think that all the 17.4m Leave voters are going to say “oh yes we’ll accept bi-lateral ties to the EU in place of the old multi-lateral ties”? I have not met a single Leave voter yet who has said anything of the sort.

      • margaret howard
        Posted October 29, 2018 at 11:21 pm | Permalink

        And do you seriously think that all 16.141m Remain voters will say “oh yes, we’ll accept to have our children’s future ruined because of a referendum that was not fit for purpose? Not even a golf club would elect a chairman under those conditions.

        • Edward2
          Posted October 30, 2018 at 8:30 am | Permalink

          A golf club would elect a chairperson if the vote was 18 v 16.
          It is a simple majority.

        • NickC
          Posted October 30, 2018 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

          Margaret Howard, Yes. That’s how democracy works – the voters vote and the most votes win. As for your ridiculous claim that our children’s future will be ruined, that is just your guess, not a fact. My judgement is that my children’s future will be better if we leave the EU. They will not be beguiled by the promise of prosperity in exchange for freedom; and you should learn from them.

        • libertarian
          Posted October 30, 2018 at 8:27 pm | Permalink


          When you say the referendum wasn’t fit for purpose you actually mean , You Lost so you dont agree.

          Most positions including the PM are based on majority voting so I’m not sure what the alternative would be ?

          Are you trying to claim that a golf club would go without a chairman unless more than say 75% voted in favour ? How odd

  13. Turboterrier.
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 8:31 am | Permalink

    The SS EUROPEAN UNION has been just about maintaining headway in these choppy waters and have managed to control the fires breaking out all across the decks. The captain and her executive crew revel in the glory of all their efforts to keep their ship on course. They still have a medium of control.

    Nobody is talking to the lookouts or watching the radar screens. The icebergs are on the horizon getting closer and the torpedoes are starting to take effect below decks. Nobody is paying attention, listening or even learning from the unrest set off by the UK as her torpedoes hit home sending shock waves through the hull. Now slowly but surely others are being prepared and some are in the water not all of them at the moment hot, straight and running but still proposing a big threat to the strength and stability of the hull.

    Time is not on the side of the executive branch, for years they have ignored the few voices of concern as they had no need to listen as they had sublime faith in the vessel and its course.

    All that has changed and is changing now at at even faster rate of knots. The whole crew are exceptionally good at fire fighting but their basic understanding of full damage control is abysmal as up to now they never had to practice it.

    The SS European Union eventually will find itself in Davy Jones locker, along with thousands of of vessels that have been taken there by the shortcomings of the Master and Executive crew members.

    One can only pray that our PM has got the sense to get us as far away from this sinking hulk so as not pulled under by the lines she is reluctant to completely sever.

  14. Alison
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 9:08 am | Permalink

    On the SPD in the government coalition, I am not sure how quickly the SPD will want to withdraw. The SPD finance minister, Olaf Scholz, is clearly busy, in favour of a very much more integrated EU, for example in June proposing EU-wide national insurance. A week ago the Frankfurter Allgemeine also wondered if his latest draft budget is aiming to channel a lot more money to the EU than the German public realize (detail behind a paywall).

  15. formula57
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 9:21 am | Permalink

    The SPD will continue with the grand coalition (so I have read) because the alternative is to trigger a federal election the result of which may well see it materially diminished. It must take a Micawberesque view of life.

    Dr. Merkel’s solution will likely amuse us all for doubtless it will be her habitual standby of “more Europe”.

  16. ian
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 9:46 am | Permalink

    She has gone,.

  17. Nig l
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    They say the EU is the ‘grave’ of Tory leaders. Now include Mutti Merkel. Nothing shows how far the EU project has fallen than the demise of one of its fiercest supporters.

    Will the Remainers and May finally take note?

    • Narrow Shoulders
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 8:10 pm | Permalink

      The EU did not do for her it was her overriding the EU to impose her way which was disastrous.

      If the EU had imposed that level of carnage on Germany Chancellor Merkel would have got away with it. She was the architect of her own destruction. Even now she only regrets lack of preparation not the acts.

  18. Odetojoy
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    JR ..get a life..the EU is there, it’s going to be there and probably for a long long time until it morphs into something else when the time is right..something like the economic and political region of the whole of the Northern Hemisphere minus switzerland UK and a few others of there’s no point in wishing the project’s just not going to happen.

    • NickC
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 8:21 pm | Permalink

      Shouldn’t you be called “Odetoauthoritarianism”?

    • libertarian
      Posted October 30, 2018 at 8:31 pm | Permalink

      odour to joy

      You dont do history then? You dont understand the strategic direction of markets then? You dont understand the impact digital technology is having then?

      Oh well another Luddite living in the past

      Might pay you to look at the worlds top 10 most successful countries and note what they all have in common

  19. rose
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 10:37 am | Permalink

    A predictable news blackout on this even here – until 10 am this morning when the BBC informed us Frau Merkel will be remaining as Chancellor but not seeking re-election as leader of her party. Another fine example for Mrs May? With the help of the new Cabinet Secretary? It will mean, like Frau Merkel, not having to be elected to anything. Did Martin Selmayr counsel this? It surely can’t happen without his permission.

    • rose
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 11:38 am | Permalink

      Sorry, event, not even.

  20. John Probert
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 10:47 am | Permalink

    Mrs Merkel will not be standing for the leadership in December

    Whoever comes next will be just as obsessed with Europe

    • Alison
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 3:46 pm | Permalink

      I wonder whether this means she might stand to be president of the European Commission? (it may be that the deadline to stand is passed, I don’t know)

    • NickC
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 8:32 pm | Permalink

      Martin Selmayr??

  21. Chris
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 11:06 am | Permalink

    I am greatly alarmed by this reported proposal by Wollaston et al to table and amendment to get a second referendum. Even worse are the options on the paper:
    BREXIT LIVE: MPs plot to knife May in the back the moment she announces Brexit deal

    “….Conservative, Labour and SNP remained backbenchers will join forces as they try to force the Prime Minister to hold a new vote.

    They are plotting to table an amendment to demand another public vote on Brexit if and when she returns from Brussels with a deal.

    This would leave Britain with two options – quitting the European Union with Theresa May’s plan, or remaining in the Brussels bloc….”

    • mancunius
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 4:05 pm | Permalink

      But there’s no visible Commons majority for that idea.
      It would need several votes, and another Referendum Bill.
      As well as a formal request to extend the Art. 50 two-year period to gain time to push that extra legislation through.

      Sounds like kite-flying by a small caucus of desperate remainer MPs.

    • NickC
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 8:35 pm | Permalink

      Chris, Yes a typical Remain rigged question. And I wouldn’t put it past Theresa May to arrange her “forced” capitulation on the second referendum.

  22. Peter Parsons
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 11:15 am | Permalink

    The fundamental difference between Germany and the UK is that when parties gain or lose voter support in Germany that change is actually reflected in their elected representatives.

    In the UK that is clearly not the case. Parties can see their voter support increase while the number of elected representatives decline (e.g. Conservatives in 2017, Labour in 2015), or can get large levels of support without gaining representation while much smaller parties end up with far more representatives on much lower levels of voter support (e.g. UKIP in 2015 compared with the SNP and DUP).

    It’s worth voting in Germany because your vote actually counts.

    • Andy
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 12:23 pm | Permalink

      If you want your vote reflected you need to change the voting system. UKIP, Greens, Lib Dems – who are all unfairly underrepresented by FPTP – all want change, Labour and particularly, the Tories who are grossly overrepresented by it do not.

      Of course your voice is represented in full in the European Parliament which is, ironically, elected in a much more democratic way.

      • Edward2
        Posted October 29, 2018 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

        Yet when offered an alternative voting system (which would have been a stepping stone towards PR) the public voted against it.
        Even this modest change was rejected.

        • Peter Parsons
          Posted October 30, 2018 at 8:27 am | Permalink

          I know people who are pro-PR who voted no in the AV referendum because AV is not PR. If the politicians really want to know if the electorate want a representative electoral system (and opinion polls show that we do), they should give us the chance to say yes or no. The fact that they won’t is nothing to do with public opinion and all about self interest.

        • hefner
          Posted October 30, 2018 at 9:34 am | Permalink

          Could it have been that at the time the average UKIP voter did not understand on which side their slice of bread would be buttered? Do not overestimate the English voter.

          • Edward2
            Posted October 30, 2018 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

            Peter and hefner.
            When votes do not go your way both of you insult the intelligence of those who voted differently to you.

          • Peter Parsons
            Posted October 31, 2018 at 9:23 am | Permalink

            Edward, exactly whose intelligence did I insult in my comment, and how?

            I simply asked for the opportunity for us, the people, to express our view on the matter of PR, an opportunity we have never been given.

    • Edward2
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 1:22 pm | Permalink

      Yet Merkel still has the position of power despite no real voter support.

      • Peter Parsons
        Posted October 29, 2018 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

        Merkel’s party secured nearly a third of the votes (32.9%) in the last German Federal elections and were still the largest party in terms of support. In Germany, winning a third of the votes means you have to work with others. In the UK, similar vote shares deliver single party government e.g. Labour’s 35.2% in 2005 and the Conservatives 36.9% in 2015.

        • Edward2
          Posted October 30, 2018 at 8:35 am | Permalink

          So under PR you still gain power with a similar vote as FPTP.
          Give a few sops to minority parties, some on the extremes of politics and hand out some cushy well paid jobs and PR works well.
          Policies that only small percentages of voters voted for then become the government’s policies.

          • Peter Parsons
            Posted October 30, 2018 at 2:28 pm | Permalink

            “Give a few sops to minority parties, some on the extremes of politics” sounds a lot like the current situation with the Conservatives and the DUP.

            Under PR you have to build a coalition that represents the majority of those who voted. Larger parties don’t agree to policies from minor parties that they disagree with when creating coalition agreements.

          • Edward2
            Posted October 31, 2018 at 12:10 am | Permalink

            Under PR it is standard practice.

          • Peter Parsons
            Posted October 31, 2018 at 9:21 am | Permalink

            I fail to see why a consensus which represents the majority view is so objectionable.

          • hans christian ivers
            Posted October 31, 2018 at 1:13 pm | Permalink


            this is how many of the successful coalition governments work in Europe, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Austira and so on

    • mancunius
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 4:09 pm | Permalink

      But they still end up with a cobbled-together government pushing cobbled-together policies that nobody voted for.
      Which is why the Greens have such a disproportionate influence on German politics. The larger parties can’t govern without them, so they insist on having their own policies treated like the Holy Grail, as the price of having a government at all. And after months of negotiation, the other parties are always forced to give in to them.

      • mancunius
        Posted October 29, 2018 at 4:11 pm | Permalink

        ‘so they insist’ they= the Greens.

    • NickC
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 8:39 pm | Permalink

      Peter Parsons, That is only because the Prime Minister (and departmental Ministers) have too much power compared to back-benchers currently.

      • Peter Parsons
        Posted October 29, 2018 at 9:57 pm | Permalink


        No, it’s because the outdated UK electoral system delivers unrepresentative chambers using an approach which renders most voters irrelevant in determining the result.

        • Edward2
          Posted October 30, 2018 at 8:38 am | Permalink

          What you mean Peter is that some people voted for candidates that were not the most popular choice.
          Had they been so they would have won.

          • Peter Parsons
            Posted October 30, 2018 at 2:35 pm | Permalink

            Most people (68%) who voted in the 2017 GE had their vote ignored when calculating the results.

            I don’t consider a system designed to ignore the vast majority of the population as fair or representative. All our votes should count equally and all our voices should be heard equally? What’s wrong with fair and equal representation for all?

          • hans christian ivers
            Posted November 1, 2018 at 8:56 am | Permalink

            Edward 2

            Most PR system of parties having to gain a certain percentage of the votes before they win seats

        • libertarian
          Posted October 30, 2018 at 10:37 am | Permalink

          Peter Parsons

          Yet YOU reject the most democratic vote we’ve ever had in the UK , how ironic

          • Peter Parsons
            Posted October 30, 2018 at 2:29 pm | Permalink

            I don’t reject it, I disagree with it which is not the same thing. It is also my democratic right not to keep quiet about disagreeing with it.

          • Edward2
            Posted October 31, 2018 at 12:12 am | Permalink

            PR is a system which give extreme minority parties a disproprtionate amount of power.

          • Peter Parsons
            Posted October 31, 2018 at 9:20 am | Permalink

            Edward, if that is the case, please can you tell me who the extreme minority with a disproportionate amount of power is in the Scottish Parliament, the Irish Parliament, the Welsh Assembly, any of the Scottish local authorities, any of the Irish local authorities.

            No party of any persuasion has any power or influence whatsoever without people voting for it (whereas in FPTP, a party can be in that situation despite lots of people voting for it e.g. UKIP in 2015).

            PR gives power to the people. Why is that something you seem so opposed to?

  23. forthurst
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 11:49 am | Permalink
  24. Mark B
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 12:38 pm | Permalink

    Good morning.

    Alice Weidel is wrong. The whole purpose of the EU is EVER CLOSER UNION. This will never change and the Commission, or to give its older title, the High Authority, will never relinquish the powera it has so carefully gained.

    The fear, and it is a real fear throughout the rEU27, although you will never hear it but just read between the lines, is that once the UK is gone, Germany and many more others are going to have to cough up more. This is not going to go down well with the self-styled elite as this is going to lead to more unrest.

    Chancellor Merkel is said to have called it a day. A successor will soon be in the offing with hopes of revitalising the parties fortunes. Unlike our PM, she seems to have finally read the message that she is an electoral liability and has been asked, on the quiet, to step down or be forced out. She has wisely chosen to jump.

    I am not hoping for a good out come tomour leaving the EU.

    • margaret howard
      Posted October 30, 2018 at 5:38 pm | Permalink

      “Unlike our PM, she seems to have finally read the message that she is an electoral liability and has been asked, on the quiet, to step down or be forced out. She has wisely chosen to jump”

      Electoral liability? 16 years at the top is more than any other leader has managed. She has steered her country and Europe through some of the most difficult periods.

      Showed extreme courage dealing with the refugee crisis caused by US/UK war mongering in the Middle East at the expense of her own popularity.

      She more than deserves her retirement.

      • Edward2
        Posted October 31, 2018 at 12:14 am | Permalink

        I am very much looking forward to her retirement

  25. Ron Olden
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 12:54 pm | Permalink

    I’m always quick off the mark with my own EU sceptical observations. I did my own blog on this Exit Poll last night on my FB Page ”UK Opinion Polling’.

    I said:-

    ”We’ve commented recently on German Opinion Polls. So we might as well comment on today’s German Election Exit Poll.

    ‘Winner’ on 27.9%:- Frau Merkel. Second on 19.9% :- the Social Democrats.

    Frau Merkel’s Party was down 10%, as were her coalition lackies the Social Democrat Party, giving the latter its’ worst result since 1946.

    It made a combined fall of 20% for the German Government.

    Only a few weeks ago exactly the same thing happened in Bavaria.

    Social Democrat leader Andrea Nahles said the Federal Government’s poor performance had “significantly” contributed to the disappointing result and told reporters the state of the Government was “unacceptable”.

    Yet Remainers in this country treat Frau Merkel and the German SDP if they’re gurus about Brexit .

    It’s becoming increasingly unlikely Frau Merkel will still be German Chancellor when we Leave the EU on March 29th 2019 and highly unlikely she’ll still be there at the end of the transition period.

    Meanwhile Mrs May is on 41% in the polls and only last year won a General Election with 43.5% (the biggest number of votes for any party since 1992).

    Since then, however, the polls show there’s even been a slight swing from Labour to the Tories!!

    Frau Merkel and her two coalition partners the CSU and the SPD are now recording a significantly lower percentage between the three of them than Mrs May is on her own in the polls.

    Yet liberal ‘thinkers’ in the UK say Mrs May’s a dead duck whilst Eurofanatics carry on worshipping Frau Merkel.

    In two weeks time the Italian Budget crisis comes to a head.

    Then there’s the Brexit negotiations.

    Then next year, Frau Merkel has to navigate the the EU Budget negotiations to decide who’s going to pay what into the EU Budget after the UK leaves.

    Let’s see how that goes. They had enough trouble arriving at a Budget when the UK was there as the second biggest net contributor”

    • margaret howard
      Posted October 30, 2018 at 5:53 pm | Permalink


      “Meanwhile Mrs May is on 41% in the polls and only last year won a General Election with 43.5% (the biggest number of votes for any party since 1992).”

      Frau Merkel’s lowest approval rating of 54% came during the migrant crisis.
      Her highest of 77% in both 2012 and again 2014.

      “They had enough trouble arriving at a Budget when the UK was there as the second biggest net contributor”

      “Britain will also loose because it’s level of contribution to EU funds is the lowest of all EU countries when measured as a percentage of GDP.”

      26/6/14 Peston BBC article

      • Edward2
        Posted October 31, 2018 at 12:15 am | Permalink

        But no longer.

  26. margaret howard
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 1:07 pm | Permalink

    Reassuring to know that Frau Merkel’s party will not be tempted (or allowed) to buy votes from the German equivalent of the DUP to keep herself and her party in power.

    There is proper democracy in Europe not one bought by danegeld.

    • Edward2
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

      She is in a complex coalition where minority parties who got small percentages of the total vote force their policies through against the majority.

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted October 31, 2018 at 1:14 pm | Permalink

        Edward 2

        Examples, please on which policies?

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted October 29, 2018 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

      Democracy? You don’t know the meaning of the word Margaret. If you did you would respect the referendum vote to leave the EU. Don’t preach to me about democracy.

      • margaret howard
        Posted October 30, 2018 at 5:57 pm | Permalink

        I know that in a respectable democracy a leader shouldn’t be allowed to pay £1b to a disreputable minority party for its ten votes to keep herself and her party in power.

        • Edward2
          Posted October 31, 2018 at 12:18 am | Permalink

          That is not what actually happened.
          The DUP secured extra public spending for the whole of Northern Island

          • hefner
            Posted October 31, 2018 at 10:04 am | Permalink

            Hee hee, P. Hammond announced another £1bn on Monday to go to NI and the DUP fell into line. But listen, that’s an example of our high-minded British politics, not like these awful continental tractations.
            Why is it that thinking about some on this site I cannot take “Lemmings” out of my mind?

    • libertarian
      Posted October 30, 2018 at 10:39 am | Permalink

      margaret howard

      You dont know anything about German politics then…. lol what a laughable post

      Proper democracy is one person one vote on a binary topic that returned the biggest vote in history , respect it or keep your democratic opinions to yourself

  27. libertarian
    Posted October 29, 2018 at 1:18 pm | Permalink


    I did tell you she was toast .

    Now about mu other predictions. Give up the economics cobblers and listen to some skin in the game stuff mate

    • hans christian ivers
      Posted October 30, 2018 at 4:27 pm | Permalink


      She is still chancellor of the most important economic power in Europe.

      Any more questions?

      Why do you continue to be so rude in your contributions. You can do the lecturing at the LSE in the minor business department

      • Edward2
        Posted October 31, 2018 at 12:20 am | Permalink

        A weak minority leader ruling only because other parties exploit her position to gain advantages

        • margaret howard
          Posted October 31, 2018 at 11:31 am | Permalink

          Who? Mrs May? What do you think the DUP want from her (us)?

          I prefer the German Greens to that disreputable rabble any time.

          • Edward2
            Posted October 31, 2018 at 4:17 pm | Permalink

            Being a green party supporter I am not surprised you do like the German greens

        • hans christian ivers
          Posted October 31, 2018 at 1:15 pm | Permalink


          Are you really sure you understand German politics?

          • Edward2
            Posted October 31, 2018 at 4:15 pm | Permalink

            She is ruler in name only.
            And she has already said she is standing down.

        • hans christian ivers
          Posted November 1, 2018 at 8:54 am | Permalink

          Edward 2

          Yes you have confirmed you d not understand German politics.

          thank you

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    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

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