FTSE 100 index surges

Why doesn’t the BBC, keen to highlight every move of sterling as being about Brexit, tell us that the FTSE 100 is up 2.3% since 6 December, presumably because of Brexit, as they think everything else is a reaction to Brexit.


  1. Al
    December 12, 2018

    I hate to defend the BBC but I think any market news is being drowned out by the entire nation holding its breath over Theresa May, and the cheering about certain letters going in.

    1. Richard1
      December 12, 2018

      The threat to the UK economy is Corbyn and the Marxists. That’s why people / companies / investors are considering hedging, holding off investment and even leaving the UK. Whether we have Canada+, Norway, EFTA or even Remain is as nothing compared to the risks of a Venezuela style disaster.

  2. rose
    December 12, 2018

    If the PM wins tonight, the May Political Theory of Electoral Democracy should apply: she should be cut in half, with half staying in Downing St and the other half being sent into retirement.

    1. Denis Cooper
      December 12, 2018

      🙂 Very good.

  3. hans christian ivers
    December 12, 2018


    Then the BBC could also report that the FTSE is the worst performing index in the industrialised world in the past 12 months, so 2.6% is not much of a hike

    Reply THis year Dax has performed worse than the FTSE

    1. margaret howard
      December 12, 2018

      Reply to the Reply

      But you implied in your posting that the BBC should celebrate the success of the FTSE when in fact it is at the bottom of the pile in the industrialised world. What’s comparison to the Dax got to do with it?

      1. libertarian
        December 13, 2018

        margaret h

        At least try to read the threads before posting . JR answered hans post about being worst, its wrong Dax is, thats just a fact… Oh I get it you dont like facts

    2. hans christian ivers
      December 12, 2018


      You are right but not over the past three years which should be the minimum horizon

      1. Jagman84
        December 12, 2018

        If you are worried about short-tern rises and falls then you really shouldn’t be delving into stocks and shares. 10 years or more is a far more realistic objective. I moved in at the 3485 mark. It’s all still good for me.

    3. mancunius
      December 12, 2018

      Hans evidently doesn’t regard Germany or Italy as industrialised countries. The MIB one-year is even worse off than the DAX.

      1. hans christian ivers
        December 12, 2018

        not over three years

        thank you

    4. libertarian
      December 12, 2018


      Do you NEVER check anything before you post?

  4. hefner
    December 12, 2018

    They did, Simon Jacques was on Radio4 at 08:30 to say that practically nothing had moved on the FTSE100 or 350.
    Tell us something relevant: what will you be writing if TM gets the support of 163 Conservative MPs, 51.7% of the vote?

    1. hefner
      December 12, 2018

      22 May’18: 7877.
      07 Aug’18 : 7776.
      09 Nov’18: 7106.
      11 Dec’18: 6856.
      Noting to see related to Brexit, nor to Trump.

      1. mancunius
        December 12, 2018

        “Simon Jacques was on Radio4 at 08:30 to say that practically nothing had moved on the FTSE100 or 350.”

        But it had – the FTSE rose sharply by 29 points between 8am and 8.30am, and ended up by more than 1%. (Not a surprise, the BBC financial news desk is known for its inaccuracy in quoting the latest prices.)

        JR accurately described the 2.3% rise from 6 Dec. until the moment he wrote.

        With today’s further upward movement, the FTSE 100 has now risen 3.09% since 6th December.

  5. ChrisS
    December 12, 2018

    There are only two questions your supporters here want to know this morning :

    Have you put a letter in to Sir Graham Brady and when did you send it ?

    1. Simon Coleman
      December 12, 2018

      Of course he did. 12 weeks of leadership election chaos would help the chances of a no deal exit. It’s not difficult to read the minds of fanatics.

  6. Newmania
    December 12, 2018

    Surely article 50 must be pulled if we are to have another Conservative Party blood bath as the country sails of the edge of a cliff ?

    1. A different Simon
      December 12, 2018

      Newremainia ,

      Here’s a question for you .

      Is there a mechanism whereby MEP’s can get rid of an appointed EU commissioner ?

    2. Denis Cooper
      December 12, 2018

      Why? The leadership of the Tory party is a matter for the Tory party, not directly for the UK state or its government, and changing the Tory leader would not alter one jot in the relevant Acts of the UK Parliament. Pro-EU anti-democrats like you have never accepted the verdict of the electors in the 2016 referendum and are just looking for any specious reason to overturn it; in fact your behaviour, and that of the Remoaners in Parliament, and that of their rentamob chums baying outside Parliament, and of our Prime Minister humiliating not just herself but also us, the whole country, by crawling round EU capitals pathetically leading for “assurances”, all serve to demonstrate what a corrosive effect EU membership has had.

      1. rick hamilton
        December 13, 2018

        Well said. Decades in the EU seems to have destroyed the will of parliament to believe in the talents and determination of the British people.

    3. Maybot
      December 12, 2018

      Remain + Corbyn.

      Not one OR the other. Both.

      Never heard any forecasts for that scenario from the BBC or Carney. Funny that.

      (Who will be voting for Corbyn ? Why, your Remain savvy students, of course.)

    4. jerry
      December 12, 2018

      @Newmania; Not at all, it was the HoC who triggered A50, following an instruction from the electorate, the Govt. merely tabled the parliamentary motion(s).

    5. libertarian
      December 12, 2018


      Nope absolutely no reason to delay leaving. If May wins then thats the end of the government as DUP will; pull out so there will be a general election. If May loses then a Brexiteer takes over, we leave on WTO terms then negotiate a FTA which is what we should have been doing for the last two years

    6. Arthur Wrightiss
      December 12, 2018

      And lifts off , sailing and soaring over the cliff to exciting new horizons and opportunities .

    7. mancunius
      December 12, 2018

      Hm, a blood bath on the edge of a cliff.
      A clear case for the Health & Safety Executive!

  7. Bryan Harris
    December 12, 2018

    That’s probably expecting too much from the BBC – They don’t deal in honesty

    1. Lifelogic
      December 12, 2018

      Indeed not they are clearly a propaganda organisation funded by a licence tax demanded with menaces from those they feed all this absurd propaganda too. The propaganda is nearly always pro EU, pro every bigger government, pro absurdly OTT climate alarmism and green crap, pro magic money tree economics, anti-business, anti-democratic, anti landlord, pro the “envy of no one sensible” the NHS, pro trains and bikes and anti-car/plane/truck, pro open door immigration ….. plus pro anything politically correct or to do with absurd “identity” politics.

      Rather like May’s appalling political views in fact. A “no nation” Tory claiming to be a “one nation” Tory. Actually just another daft, disingenuous, electoral liability and Libdim pretending to be a Tory for 40 years.

  8. Norman
    December 12, 2018

    Owen Patterson spoke so well, outside parliament just now – Joanna Gosling did a good job too, as BBC interviewer – pleasant style, but asking the right questions. Bill Cash also spoke well.
    Theresa May’s statement? A little less defiance, and a little more humility would have served her cause better. Owen had already demonstrated why her resolute stance would not ‘wash’. Sorry Theresa, I think you’ve blown it.

    1. Lifelogic
      December 12, 2018

      “I have been in the Conservative Party for over 40 years she said”, why I wondered when you are so clearly not a Conservative in any way. Just a better chance of becoming an MP with a nice leafy constituency one assumes? Better than as a Libdim or Labour MP. Certainly not a believer in lower taxes, freedom of choice for the individual, democracy, sensible economics, small government, a health system that works or anything sensible like that.

    2. Norman
      December 12, 2018

      I was pleased to hear that the PM corrected her defiant tone, when she addressed MPs later in the afternoon. She may be on a loser, but I respect her sincere hard work, and hope she survives the trauma of this desperately difficult task, with a sense that she did her best and in good grace throughout.
      People hold up Neville Chamberlain as an appeaser, but in reality I believe he was a good man, desperate to avoid the terrible carnage of another world war. He was quite ill through it all, but Providence was such that he bought us the necessary time to re-arm for the war that was to come. Perhaps there are unseen parallels here, who knows?

  9. rose
    December 12, 2018

    The BBC are surpassing themselves. The harridan on Newsnight last night, and then the tempestuous conversation Owen Paterson was put through this morning. Anything to stop the listeners hearing common sense. At least Bernard Jenkin managed to get out the simple truth that this PM cannot now command a majority in the House.

    1. Denis Cooper
      December 12, 2018

      Well, she can command a majority on many matters but not on her handling of Brexit, where she wishes to surrender to the completely unreasonable express demands and implicit threats of the Irish government, even that is primarily as a pretext for the usual Tory pandering to the likes of the CBI … looking back to 1993 when John Major could not get approval of the Maastricht Treaty through the Commons I find that he resorted to this motion:


      ‘This House has confidence in the policy of the Government on the adoption of the protocol on social policy.’

      In retrospect it seems extraordinary that such a narrow motion should have forced the Tory rebels to give way and allow the treaty to be ratified, but back then a Prime Minister still had the prerogative power to call a general election:

      “… With Cabinet ministers roaming the corridors of the Commons to threaten a general election debacle for the Conservative Party … ”

      I hope that even if Theresa May wins a confidence vote within the Tory party that general endorsement of her as party leader will not unnecessarily deter patriotic Tory MPs from refusing to follow her lead on a rubbish Brexit ‘deal’.

  10. dollop
    December 12, 2018

    Yes because the FTSE 100 is to do with overseas / US investments and overseas earnings so it’s no surprise with the pound taking a dive the earnings in Dollar earnings etc when translated into Pounds the FTSE 100 is going to be up.

  11. Peter VAN LEEUWEN
    December 12, 2018

    Tonight would seem your best bet to secure a no-deal brexit.
    But what if Mrs. May won’t need to pack her bags and the FTSE may react even more positively. . . ?

    1. Peter VAN LEEUWEN
      December 13, 2018

      DealBrexit – NoDealBrexit : 1 – 0

      . . . but the battle goes on . . . now as a guerrilla?

      1. a-tracy
        December 13, 2018

        I’m sorry what do you mean pvl?

        May hasn’t presented her deal to the parliament, she backed out, the EU has been clear, as you know, there is no change they will make.

        Therefore stalemate. With a weak PM, unlike Thatcher, she has the support of the EU though.

        1. Peter VAN LEEUWEN
          December 13, 2018

          @a-tracy: the chance of a NoDealBrexit has decreased, because:

          1) May cannot be toppled for the next 12 months (Tory rules).
          2) The H.o.C. has made clear that a NoDealBrexit will not be allowed by parliament.

          Maybe currently an internal UK stalemate, for which the UK will have to provide a solution. Of course there is EU27 willingness to help May where possible.

          1. a-tracy
            December 14, 2018

            Thank you.

            It is concerning for the public though because we read “On Thursday evening the President of the European Commission insisted the Brexit Britain needed to make clear “what they want, instead of asking us to say what we want”.”

            Which means May up to now hasn’t made clear what the UK wants, so she is failing, even though honourable members of her own cabinet tried to change her so that someone who can be clearer in discussions in Europe (perhaps someone who can speak French or German or Swedish as those members of the EU seem to struggle the most with what May’s government wants).

            The EU 27 don’t seem to be willing to help at all. In fact they seem determined to ridicule her. Sending a car for her with child locks on then not immediately jumping out to open the door for her, just plain rude.

  12. jerry
    December 12, 2018

    Do you really want the BBC, or any of the MSM, to report this?! No doubt also dutifully putting it into the context of the last 30 days, that the FTSE has not regained the losses of the 3rd, 4th and 5th of Dec despite your claim of a “surge”. Sorry Mr Redwood but sometimes you protest to much…

    1. Maybot
      December 12, 2018

      You miss Dr Redwood’s point.

      It’s the BBC bias towards FTSE ups and downs that he’s commenting on.

      Down = because of Brexit

      Up = in spite of Brexit

      Up with a threat to May = DON’T MENTION IT !!!

      1. jerry
        December 13, 2018

        @Maybot; No it is you who missed the point. Do you really want the MSM to report non-news that that will be seen by the average Pleb as BAD NEWS… The FTSE has been falling, this 2.3% “surge” didn’t even recovered its recent losses!

        The majority of us here on our hosts site understand the workings of the FTSE, or at least understand it can become a bit roller-coaster at time, but the general public probably do not, judging by how the MSM have to dumb down their business and market reporting these days.

  13. gyges
    December 12, 2018

    What are we to make of Lord Saatchi’s private member’s bill?


    (ps apologies for posting a link but … )

    1. Denis Cooper
      December 12, 2018

      That it is a hopeless idea to get a re-run of David Cameron’s ‘re-negotiation’ which would fail as miserably as the original.

    2. mancunius
      December 12, 2018

      Nothing at all.
      It’s not unusual for peers with commercial interests to want to further those interests. Bit like the CBI.

  14. rose
    December 12, 2018

    I don’t like the idea of the Brexiteers narrowing down the candidates to one: this means three good people would be eliminated by their own side, while unlimited numbers of remainers go forward.

    1. Nicholas Murphy
      December 12, 2018

      The important thing is for a Brexiteer to get to a vote of the party membership.

    2. ChrisS
      December 12, 2018

      Rose, If Mrs May loses this evening, you should appreciate that MPs will then be voting to choose only two candidates names to go forward to the membership for them to choose from.

      The proposal to reach agreement that only one Brexiteer candidate stands is a sensible way of doing everything possible to ensure that one of the two will be a Brexiteer.

      Given that party members are very keen on Brexit, it will be a near certainty that the Brexiteer candidate would then win.

      However, I suspect Remain MPs will enable Mrs May to win the vote and she will carry on. Especially if she assures MPs that she will stand down before the next election.

    3. libertarian
      December 12, 2018


      The perfect scenario 1 Brexit candidate 3 Remain candidates = vote split , job done

  15. Fedupsoutherner
    December 12, 2018

    Yes and employment is up too. The BBC only like bad news when associating it with Brexit.

  16. Peter Parsons
    December 12, 2018

    At the time I’m submitting this comment, the FTSE 100 is at about 6,860. On December 5th, it closed at 6,921.84.

    While the FTSE might be up from it’s recent low, it’s also trading a couple of hundred points down on where it has been for most of the last month.

    Presumably because of Brexit?

    1. mancunius
      December 12, 2018

      JR cited December 6th – when it closed at 6704.

      Look at the S&P and the DAX – they fell by even more in early December.
      ‘Because of Brexit’ – my Aunt Fanny.

      1. Peter Parsons
        December 12, 2018

        Indeed. He cherry picked the previous month’s low and has tried to make a political point out of it. If you don’t believe that it’s “because of Brexit”, presumably you disagree with the premise of the original post as that is where “because of Brexit” is taken from.

        Reply The point I was making was how silly it us to take a small short term fall in sterling and to blame Brexit!

        1. libertarian
          December 13, 2018

          Peter Parsons

          Do keep up. His point is that the media pick up on every fall and blame Brexit, but never mention rises . Straightforward point

  17. Tom Weston
    December 12, 2018

    And sterling rose this morning too!

  18. Lifelogic
    December 12, 2018

    Up again further today, one assumes due to the great relief that Appeaser May may soon finally be gone and a sensible PM who actually believes in Brexit, lower taxes, cheaper no green crap energy, far less red tape, and less PC drivel may take over. One who might actually keep the Tories in office, will fire the appalling grim reaper Hammond, avoid the party being buried and avoid the appalling prospect of Corbyn. Let us hope Tory MPs do not repeat the massive mistake they made last time when they retained the absolutely hopeless and misguided dope John Mayor. He predictably buried the party for many terms as will May if she is not kicked out. She is a massive disingenuous electoral and Brexit liability. She richely deserved an ignominious departure now.

    1. Lifelogic
      December 12, 2018

      Fire doom and gloom enemy of Brexit Carney too. Get Mervin King back perhaps.

      1. mancunius
        December 12, 2018

        A British Governor of the BoE would seem to be a ‘sine qua non’. Mr Carney is indeed a Commonwealth citizen, but also a citizen of the Republic of Ireland.

    2. Alan Jutson
      December 12, 2018


      Do not put too much hope in many Conservative Mp’s wanting to get rid of May.

      Most are unfortunately Remainers who simply do not want Brexit, or a Brexit PM/Leader.

      Problem they have is if May wins and stays on, the Conservative Party will be buried at the next election, because the majority of the people simply do not trust her, she has told too many lies, and is backing her pathetic surrender document.

      The right decision would be to simply appoint a leader who is a brexiteer who is not frightened of a WTO deal and who really wants to cut taxes, then the Conservatives would be in power next time no problem.

  19. MickN
    December 12, 2018

    Good luck with the vote tonight.
    It is appalling to hear remoaner conservative MPs saying that a single vote over the 50% would be a victory for the PM and will have to be accepted whilst those same MPs argue that the 1.4 million majority in the referendum is too close to call. Drain the swamp.

  20. Newmania
    December 12, 2018

    ..isn`t that just the pound dropping anyway ?

  21. acorn
    December 12, 2018

    Because they could say it is down 3.6% since the 3rd December.

    1. mancunius
      December 12, 2018

      Whoever ‘they’ are, ‘they’ might not be stupid enough to ignore global comparators.

      The Dax is down 4.675% over the same period.
      The S&P is down 4.099% over the same period.
      The Italian MIB is down 5.256% over the same period.

      Obviously, the fall in e.g. the US must be ‘because of Brexit’. :-)))

  22. Peter
    December 12, 2018

    May is up against it now.

    Humiliated during her trip to Europe. Film of her locked in a German vehicle with Merkel outside laughing at her was an appropriate image to send back home.

    If she survives the Tory vote, the DUP will withdraw support anyway. Then an opposition vote of no confidence would finish her off.

    1. Lynn Atkinson
      December 12, 2018

      … would finish the Conservative Government off … it her or all of them. It’s in their hand which it is to be.

    2. margaret howard
      December 12, 2018


      “Humiliated during her trip to Europe. Film of her locked in a German vehicle with Merkel outside laughing at her was an appropriate image to send back home.”

      Pathetic Brexiteer tactics.

      1. libertarian
        December 13, 2018

        margaret howard

        So you’re accusing Mercedes Benz of being Brexiteers ?

        The child lock was on

  23. Adam
    December 12, 2018

    BBC News is a fog of muddle. Its content is riddled with light entertainment, fantasy & children’s TV. Its reporting is more suited to comedy, which is lacking even in the quality of a joke worth hearing.

  24. Bob
    December 12, 2018

    The BBC is no longer a public service broadcaster, it is a political disinformation and propaganda broadcaster working towards the UN’s project for global government.

    They’ve been very quiet about the UN Global compact for migration enthusiastically supported by South Africa, where racist farm murders continue unreported by the BBC.

    The only political party calling for an end to the BBC TV Licence is UKIP.

  25. Jagman84
    December 12, 2018

    Maybe it is the prospect of a clean break with the EU that has prompted the rise? We do well from WTO trading and the world markets would know that. That would go against all of the propaganda, passed to the BBC, from the Guardian. I would defund it, ASAP. Or, at least, close the news and current affairs department.
    Good luck with the ballot this evening. It could be history changing, if Tory MPs do the right thing and reflect the grassroots view.

  26. Mark B
    December 12, 2018

    We all know. What we do not know, is why we have keep paying the TV Tax when technology can render it redundant ?

    Just repeal the Law on TV Licensing and let the Auntie do the rest. Simple.

    1. A different Simon
      December 12, 2018

      If a tax is to be charged , there should at least be an option to donate the money to a recognised charity instead .

      I’m sick of paying BBC staff sinecures and being propagandised .

  27. Kenneth
    December 12, 2018

    The BBC’s opposition to Brexit has given licence to the Prime Minister to come out with a statement like “deliver the Brexit people voted for”.

    He deal does nothing of the sort and she knows it.

    These kinds of insults to the British People have brought the office of Prime Minister into disrepute.

    1. Beecee
      December 12, 2018

      I think she really believes that she is delivering what people voted for. So she does not know what she is doing wrong, or even that she is.

      Humiliated again by EU leaders, she stood up again today as though she is winning every argument. Self delusional with yes people like Gove egging her on.

      Says all and very sad!

  28. Roy Grainger
    December 12, 2018

    The bookmakers think May will survive the no confidence vote today fairly easily. Talk about turkeys voting for Christmas ! If she does I’d be happy enough to have Labour in and have Starmer fail to negotiate a suitable deal instead, not much downside as the EU will prevent most of Corbyn’s madder economic policies.

  29. Ron Olden
    December 12, 2018

    We’re always being told that by ‘experts’ that political turmoil and ‘uncertainty over Brexit’ is about to cause a financial crash.

    Following the announcement of the confidence vote today, Sterling rose, and, at the moment, the Stock Market is 1% up.

    It might well go back down again to where it started but it pretty well disproves the ‘experts’ theories. So ‘experts’ wrong again!

    But are they ever right? Even a stopped clock is right once a day.

  30. Alan Jutson
    December 12, 2018

    It goes up it goes down, for lots of reasons.

  31. MikeP
    December 12, 2018

    Well done against Kirsty Wark on Newsnight. We could do with a few more politicians who stand their ground to prevent interviewers from talking over their replies to follow an anti-Tory, anti-Brexit, anti-Guardianista narrative. The BBC is a disgrace

  32. Den
    December 12, 2018

    Ah! That is a case of “Despite Brexit”! Though no longer used by the BBC I note, after JRM tore it apart on QT a while back.

  33. Pat
    December 12, 2018

    O/t, but good luck tonight.

  34. Rien Huizer
    December 12, 2018

    Mr Redwood,

    As you know very well, this index is heavily loaded towards stocks that may have a headoffice in Britain, but derive most of their profits in other currencies than GBP. This is an entirely normal market response.

    1. Maybot
      December 12, 2018

      You miss the point.

      It’s BBC bias which is being commented on.

      1. Rien Huizer
        December 15, 2018

        Because it was a normal marker response to the GBP fall, it was not as newsworthy as tha fall that caused it. I read the post but found the criticism insufficiently argued. Hence my comment.

    2. libertarian
      December 13, 2018


      Every remainer on here has totally missed the point in their rush to rubbish any hint of good news

      His point was that when it falls its reported as being due to Brexit when it rises no mention

      Remainers debate level is very poor

  35. Stred
    December 12, 2018

    Watching the Remainer Tory MPs lying about the failings of the May/Robbins WA and their signing away of defence and security, it is clear that they either have not read and understood the opinions of various lawyers and the ex head of security with senior military, or they think that the voters do not know the facts. It is true that many do not know at present because of the censorship of media. However, as the truth leaks out the grip of the EU and their continued control with the loss of security through 5 eyes, those responsible will be listed. At the next election, which may be soon, they will face the music and hopefully will be cleaned out. MPs wishing to uphold the referendum and manifesto need to point out to the Europhile reversers that they have the option of starting a proper Conservative Party and this would have huge support.

  36. Rd
    December 12, 2018

    John, the BBC are deceiving the masses by implying the currency markets are not capable of being manipulated. Just check BBC forecasts based on IG sentiment and you will see what appears to be the Forex markets being manipulated to do the opposite of the BBC/IG forecast and hunt out retail traders or mug punters stops. The banks are literally making money from people’s misplaced trust in the BBC.

  37. Mitchel
    December 12, 2018

    We’ve had no long exposure to the FTSE-100 at all this year-in fact we’ve been running a large short position since it hit 7500,selling half when it first dropped through 7000 and the balance this Monday.We’ve also been (profitably)trading in and out of shorts on the S&P500 in recent months,again selling out on Monday after the Sterling slide.Our largest asset class holding is now cash,followed by gold-we went massively,massively overweight when the price briefly dipped below $1180 a few months ago.

  38. BBCnot
    December 12, 2018

    I am a Forex trader….it you want to make money do the opposite to BBC advice and never join the bucket shops they promote.

    1. eeyore
      December 12, 2018

      Shhh. Don’t tell everyone.

  39. Hope
    December 12, 2018

    Patterson is spot on in his resignation letter. You cannot beleive anything May says. She is underhand, reneged on her agreement with the DUP hoping labour MPs would fill their void. May is a bone head failing to listen. 80 percent of Tory Supporters want her gone, 70 percent of Tory supporters want her deal rejected. May failed to listen or respond to any of them her own supporters! If she remains in post your party is done.

    May acted behind the backs of her Brexit ministers. May went to the country to get the public to urge their MPs for her deal, the public decided her deal was terrible. May carried on and went to parliament, it was going to be voted down, she pulled the plug to bounce her agreement at the last moment. May went to Merkel and a EUROPEAN unelected leaders and they rejected her pleas to alter her servitude plan.

    1. Denis Cooper
      December 12, 2018

      But Paterson is wrong to keep on about getting a free trade deal, which at best would be of only marginal economic benefit compared to trading on WTO terms.


      “3. Compared to the baseline position of the WTO treaties a free trade agreement like that between Canada and the EU would not actually be worth much:


      “… on a simple pro rata basis if CETA boosts Canada’s exports to the EU by the equivalent of 0.18% to 0.36 % of its GDP, as the EU Commission projects, then for the UK the same kind of special trade deal with the EU might be worth 0.7% to 1.4% of UK GDP.”

      That maximum GDP gain of 1.4% would be in the same ballpark as:

      a) the UK’s gross gain from the EU Single Market, about 1% of GDP; and

      b) the long term loss the UK might experience by defaulting to the WTO treaties, according to the German government, about 1.7% of GDP … “

    2. The Quiet Man
      December 12, 2018

      Merkel wrote the ‘May deal”

  40. Glenn Vaughan
    December 12, 2018

    I see that Michael Gove has declared his full support for the Prime Minister – so that’s one vote against her this evening.

  41. Sakara Gold
    December 12, 2018

    The FTSE is about the same as it was at the top of the dot-com mania in 2000. Its gone nowhere for 18 years, though you would have had the dividends.

  42. Cheshire Girl
    December 12, 2018

    I am absolutely disgusted here watching Prime Ministers Question Time.

    Theresa May has ducked all the questions that Corbyn asked her. Her answers just consisted of slagging off the Labour Party, what they did in power, and what they would do, encouraged by the MPs next to her, laughing and roaring their approval..

    I am no fan of Labour or Corbyn, but in my opinion May does not deserve to survive this vote, she is weak, all she does is to point out the faults of opposing parties. I think she will survive, but I think it is inappropriate for her to address her MPs directly before the vote. I think she is hoping that some of them will be swayed by her entreaties. I hope she is wrong.

  43. An average voter
    December 12, 2018

    Very disappointed about MPs putting in letters to bring down the PM at the very time our country needs unity and certainty.

    Seems to me the Conservatives are busy fighting over who gets to be leader or else fighting an election.
    Labour are busy trying to engineer an election.
    The speaker’s trying to keep his job.

    Is anybody in control here? And will a new PM actually change the arithmetic here. If nobody is willing to compromise, I’m not sure we’re not going to get anywhere. And if I’m being honest, I don’t get a general sense of compromise from many of the posts that I have read, heartfelt as they are.

    1. mancunius
      December 12, 2018

      What ‘compromise’ do you envisage?

      Nobody voted to ‘just leave the EU a bit but actually stay shackled to it’.

      Untalented politicians are always inventing compromises nobody wants.

      Real compromise would be May saying that having spent two years negotiating for a pro-EU deal and thrown away the country’s advantage and reputation, she will resign and give way to a PM who will negotiate a pro-UK deal.

    2. Maybot
      December 13, 2018

      If you’re the average voter then I take it you voted Leave in 2016.

      If not then perhaps you have the wrong blog name.

      1. An average voter
        December 13, 2018

        I just use this name because I’m trying not to take sides and push for unity and compromise.

        1. TRP
          December 14, 2018

          Very sensible, but unfortunately this blog is not a place for anybody stuck somewhere within the 4% “between” 52 and 48%. Here roam only the big “majority” beasts.

  44. An average voter
    December 12, 2018

    Oops. Meant the Conservatives are fighting each other, not an election.

    (that’s the last thing we need).

  45. Captain Peacock
    December 12, 2018

    If Sajid Javid or Ms Rudd replaces May as PM them its time to give up on the Tory party.

  46. Steve
    December 12, 2018

    Gove was just on the news saying he will fully support Theresa May, which means he’ll vote against her.

    PMQ was quite informative, a lot was laid bare for all to see. I think she’ll survive tonight’s vote.

    At least we’ll be out on 29th March if she does. Deal or no deal.

  47. am
    December 12, 2018

    The recent drop in the pound will be welcomed by exporters.

  48. JustGetOnWithBrexit
    December 12, 2018

    The FTSE 100 is 1,000 points higher than just before the Referendum in 2016…a time when Remain was expected to win.

    Markets go up and down, but excellent progress Despite Brexit!

  49. Stred
    December 12, 2018

    There is a short article by Caroline Bell in Conservative Woman today, setting out why the WD is a disaster. It may be short enough for some of the Remainers backing May to understand. Perhaps you could take copies to the meeting tonight and hand out copies, then ask her why she thinks it is wrong.

  50. James neill
    December 12, 2018

    Tonight’s your last chance John- it’s put up or shut up time

    Reply I dont think so!

  51. Chris
    December 12, 2018

    If May wins the vote, it will indicate that over half of Tory MPs are complicit in the utter betrayal of the electorate and this country by defying the Brexit referendum result and thereby refusing to uphold democracy. Their contempt for the electorate knows no bounds, and is in plain view for all to see.

    I firmly believe that the “Conservatives” as a Party are finished, and that a root and branch reform is needed, with the liberal progressives, who seem determined to betray Brexit, isolated, and a new power base established made up of true Tory MPs committed to effect Brexit, to uphold democracy and to espouse true Conservative principles.

  52. Sue Doughty
    December 12, 2018

    The financial markets do seem to be encouraged by today’s events. But is it because they think Mrs May is more secure or gone? Is it because they see the odds on having to tolerate Corbyn as reducing? Or is it knowing the rapidly growing French government deficit means they will be paying the City of London a higher premium on the larger borrowing requirement?
    Most of us are not certain where our sentiment lies today.

  53. ChrisS
    December 12, 2018

    You fought Kirsty Young vigourously on Newsnight and you managed to get some important points across, despite her constant interruptions. It was so obvious that Young has tremendous animosity towards any kind of Brexit.

    Such a contrast to her treatment of her fellow Scot from the SNP who she didn’t interupt once !

    Par for the course, I’m afraid

  54. Jane
    December 12, 2018

    Apologies for my being off topic.
    Is it possible that this confidence vote is being manipulated?
    This rush of letters should really happen after the PM comes back empty-handed. Could it be merely a distraction from the WA vote being postponed.
    Those that have recently handed a letter to the ‘22 Committee may secretly vote the opposite way to ensure the PM wins and therefore remains in for another year.
    May seems too confident! I smell a rat.

  55. Denis Cooper
    December 12, 2018

    Oh, for God’s sake, please can somebody tell this man that what he wants would not only be bad for all concerned it would be a legal impossibility?


    “Enter Norway plus. This means the UK becoming a member of the European Free Trade Area (Efta) and having a customs union with the EU … ”

    The four present EFTA countries are not in a customs union with each other, and nor are any of them in a customs union with the EU; instead they form a free trade area with no customs duties on their mutual trade, Article 3 of their Convention:


    and how could an additional country possibly join in with that if it could not control the tariffs it applied to imports because it was in a customs union with the EU and so had to apply the EU’s Common External Tariff?

    Does Oliver Letwin assume that all the EFTA countries would be willing to grant the UK some kind of waiver or derogation from that fundamental requirement?

  56. Happyout
    December 12, 2018

    I fear all your old WTO rules based stuff is slipping away..my my what are you going to do now?

  57. Colin Croft
    December 12, 2018

    The “impartiality” of the BBC has fallen further even than the abysmal state of affairs prior to the 48 letters. “Interviews” on their topical programmes have long since been geared to airing the “Establishment” view and shouting down or ignoring any person insolent enough to contradict. The depths of this disgrace for a national broadcaster was demonstrated by Kirsty Wark on Newsnight last night in her offensive disregard of good manners with Mr. Redwood. I have ceased listening to the Today programme due to their bias for “remain”. I had hoped to view and hear Mr. Redwood last night as he has cogent and experienced views concerning Brexit. I shall not make the mistake of tuning in to Newsnight again

  58. Tabulazero
    December 12, 2018

    … because if Theresa May wins the upcoming confidence vote the hard Brexit championed by the lunatic fringe of the Conservative party becomes less likely.

    That’s why the FTSE or the cable is rebounding today: that the fantasy of rabid brexiters be put to rest once and for all.

  59. Al
    December 12, 2018

    I will be curious to see what the BBC will report if Theresa May is voted out, and the pound goes up. I know my business would fell more secure with no leader than her, simply because she can’t do any more damage.

    And I have just realised how utterly damning that is of her as leader and Prime Minister.

    1. Al
      December 12, 2018

      And the BBC are now reporting “Pound slips on vote result”. Just possibly that’s an indication of how much faith the markets have in her – she stays and the pound goes down.

  60. Hardlyever
    December 12, 2018

    Heard DD on the news saying that what we need is a reset of the negotiations..yuk..what a creep..the big ex-SAS man

  61. margaret
    December 12, 2018

    And the real trigger for this peak in a volatile market is?

    BTW. Would you consider standing for PM?

  62. agricola
    December 12, 2018

    If May continues as PM we still have a toxic WA that pleases very few in the H o C. If the EU will not accept changes to the WA or something entirely different then any incoming PM is left with leaving without a deal. While this does not intimidate me it would seem to have little HoC support.
    This dreadful situation only arises because May and the civil service created it.

    1. Steve
      December 12, 2018


      “This dreadful situation only arises because May and the civil service created it.”

      Not entirely so, agri.

      Factors are; May not having the balls to fight the EU, ungrateful Europeans such as Tusk Barnier and Juncker. The Irish who think they’re in with a chance of a united Ireland now that they have someone bigger than themselves to hide behind. Macron who wants to grab UK fishing waters, and German Chancellor Rosa Klebb who, like the french, has too much influence.

      And last but by no means least; remainers refusing to get it through their thick heads that as a minority they lost the referendum and as the minority they have no right to interfere. They really should just keep their gob shut, they lost, end of.

  63. mancunius
    December 12, 2018

    I no longer trust Conservative MPs to do the right thing.

    I do however trust the DUP to ensure that if nothing improves, they will pull the plug in the HoC.

  64. Chris Parker
    December 12, 2018

    Isn’t the 2% rise in the FTSE caused by the 2% drop in sterling? Ie: if your currency is worth less, then large international companies are worth more in your currency?

    1. mancunius
      December 12, 2018

      There was (of course!) no 2% drop in sterling during the period JR specifies.

    2. Mike wilson
      December 13, 2018

      Spot on. A lot of FTSE companies earnings are in dollars.

  65. Narrow Shoulders
    December 12, 2018

    In the same way that CNN and BBC news 24 made their name in the live coverage of the gulf war.

    I think you could have made serious capital from live blogging this day. Your twitter feed was not hugely active which could be an opportunity missed to get your viewpoint noticed.

  66. Simon Coleman
    December 12, 2018

    Reduced to petty points scoring against the BBC. One thing’s for sure, the rise has nothing to do with positivity about Brexit…as there is no such thing. On a different topic – we’re leaving the Galileo programme which you doubtless predicted like everything else. So, is that a good thing? And what’s it likely to cost us?

    1. mancunius
      December 12, 2018

      Pointing out that the national broadcaster’s constant kneejerk response to any superficial change is ‘Brexit’ when the change is negative, and that any slight or even major contrary positive trend is never said to be Brexit-related, is a form extreme political prejudice that we should all constantly address. It’s laughable, of course, because the thinking behind it so deeply unscientific.

      You seem to have caught up with the year-old news that we have been excluded from the Galileo programme we helped to build and finance. This probably is a good thing in the long term. Any EU systems is going to have security gaps. Galileo is expensive to run and service.
      The killer is that new QIS technology will have replaced satellite systems by 2022, and we should go with the new developments. Far cheaper to build and run, and it will give us a competitive edge over the EU system and power ahead with positioning. So yet another blessing in disguise, really.

    2. libertarian
      December 13, 2018

      Simon Coleman

      You good trying reading the news rather than making stuff up

      The UK’s manufacturing sector has once again just got on with it this week:
      ▪️£27m Siemens factory opens in Worcester
      ▪️Müller invests £15m at its Bellshill dairy
      ▪️Calsonic Kansei creates 85 jobs in Llanelli
      ▪️Rolls-Royce wins £237m engine deal

      No positivity about Brexit nosiree simple Simon told us so

  67. Simon
    December 12, 2018

    How is your putsch going now Mr Redwood ?

  68. hefner
    December 12, 2018

    Thanks to the dismal tactical comedy game played by the ERG and its associated b******s, TM is going on as PM for possibly another year! Sincere congratulations to all those involved.

    1. libertarian
      December 12, 2018


      As opposed to the 200 brain dead, detached, out of touch tory weasels who have just voted themselves into a general election

      1. hefner
        December 13, 2018

        Compared to the 117 geniuses whose combined talents seemed not to have accounted for the ~170 CUP MPs in pay of the Government. There is a level of hubris/delusion in people thinking themselves soooo much cleverer than their opponents that generally makes the “genius” group look rather ridiculous afterwards. And that is how the ERG and associates look to me today.
        That also applies in other circumstances, e.g., this blog …

        1. libertarian
          December 13, 2018


          Dont put yourself down mate, you try.

          The ERG said before the vote they anticipated 80 votes for them. Do keep up

    2. Caterpillar
      December 12, 2018


      It will be more than a year, ironically like the back stop there is no legal agreement for her to step down. The UK is stuck with her and stuck as future rule takers. I would much rather remain so that we can at least vote for MEPs next year and start over, a new Farage party and at least a route for representation. This is a better exit plan because we can get it right this time, Brexiteer MEPs and Brexiteer MPs, we need to Remain now so that we have a democratic and legal chance to fight and win in the future. Hopefully the Brexiteers will now align with the Remainers, insist on revoking Article 50 and regroup.

  69. Tabulazero
    December 12, 2018

    You and your ERG friends have lost.

    It will be either the softest of Brexit or no Brexit at all. Hard Brexit is dead.

    Oh! Happy days!

    1. libertarian
      December 13, 2018


      Actually what you call hard Brexit is now the only likely outcome

      No time left for another referendum, no time left to rescind A50 WA dead in the water. EU totally intransigent as always. WTO here we come

  70. Bryan Harris
    December 12, 2018

    This is absolutely incredible – It is beyond rationality. Despite all of the lies, misinformation and deceit, Tory MP’s have told us they have confidence in May.

    This clearly demonstrates the Tory party are no longer fit for purpose, and this vote, tonight, will destroy a once great party, because nobody will ever have any trust in the Tories again.

  71. Brit
    December 12, 2018

    The Tory Party declares Mrs May will not stand as PM in the next General Election.
    A crystal clear admission it KNOWS May and the Tory Party wrong us NOW.
    The declaration is:

    “We, the Conservative Party are a foreign Party acting deliberately against the British.”

    It is now flying boldly its Foreign Flag previously hidden in rum ration.
    Pirates now firing on our Fleet. The Enemy within…

  72. Monza 71
    December 12, 2018

    Merkel and Junker’s responses just show that they have learnt nothing after the referendum – either that or they simply don’t give a damn.

    It was Merkel who sent a humiliated Cameron home with nothing following his attempt to “renegotiate” the terms of British Membership prior to the referendum. It was that above anything else that resulted in his defeat. Had she given him something, almost any concession on FOM, he would have won it.

    Now Merkel has ensured that Brussels has put Mrs May in a similar position, making few concessions, if any, in the exit negotiations, although insisting on a large bribe before even sitting down to talk. May was naive and foolish to agree to the phasing of the negotiations against the advice from David Davis.

    This latest round has made it impossible for Mrs May to get the Withdrawal agreement through Parliament.

    Mrs May should use her ten minutes to announce that all current negotiations on the withdrawal agreement will end and that she is going for a managed exit on WTO terms with no money changing hands. I suspect that we would end up with a better deal as a result. Even Varadkar has said on record in the Irish Parliament that in the event of No Deal they would very rapidly have to agree a No Deal Deal to protect the Irish economy.

    The problem is that Mrs May hasn’t the guts and a majority of weak kneed MPs actoss all parties are a spineless waste of space.

    There is no such thing as a “People’s Vote.” It’s just hypocritical Remainer MPs trying to reverse the 2016 result. Everyone knows they are lying when they say “We respect the original vote but….”

    1. Tabulazero
      December 13, 2018

      Correct. They just do not give a damn because they may have more important jobs than figuring out what the Conservative Party exactly wants to do.

      It’s the Brexiters’mess. Let them sort it out.

  73. mancunius
    December 13, 2018

    Very shocking result for May tonight. If you take the bare figures, 117 to 200 MPs, it means one third of the whole number of Tory MPs want her gone.
    If you bear in mind that as many as 169 of those pro-May voters are on the government payroll – ministers etc. who are financially dependent on May for their income.
    So the vote of the backbenchers – those who are free to cast their vote as they wish to – 117 voted to remove May and only 31 voted to keep her.

    Anyway, she’s survived until the forthcoming vote of Confidence in the House of Commons, which she will lose.

    Reply 37% against

    1. mancunius
      December 13, 2018

      117 is rather more than one third, of course!

  74. FTSE watcher
    December 13, 2018

    My favourite watched US share has being going sideways for some time now. Still overpriced by 10-15% My favourite Chinese shares gradually rising again since Sino/US trade war( now a 3-month lull), from the beginning of November.
    A UK stock I watch as an indicator ( housing rent/ buy related) has been slowly declining since August 2017 which, knowing the company, it should do, and by very much more despite housing market conditions in general.
    The problem is Mrs May and other Remainers who have caused Uncertainty since 23rd June 2016. Until she and they are gone, only fools would make attempted stable investments in the UK. They do not even know which Country if any,
    the UK will be.

    1. Tabulazero
      December 13, 2018

      Yes… right… because you do not think the current uncertainty may also have something to do with unraveling 40 years of close economic and political cooperation on a whim ?

      Are you a believer in the Church of “We hold all the cards” by any chance ?

      Leaving is in itself a source of uncertainty.

  75. Mike wilson
    December 13, 2018

    You sound like a fund manager! FTSE up since 6th December! What about the fall from 7500 to 6700 between October 3rd and December 6th!? No mention of that?

    December 13, 2018

    Your blog name: Speaking for England. You know alot.

    1. libertarian
      December 13, 2018

      Christopher Houston

      Your user name , a city in Texas whats your point

      1. hefner
        December 14, 2018

        Is Houston not a name linked to some Scottish origin?

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