There should be no surprise that senior German government figures want the UK to stay in the EU. They show their scorn for democracy by asking for that and take us for fools. They want the UK to keep on paying huge sums of money to help with the costs of their political and monetary union which we have never wanted to join. They want the EU to write our laws for us to help their commercial interests. They want to keep UK tariffs high on cars and food from the rest of the world to ensure they run a huge trade surplus with us at the expense of UK consumers. If I were a German politician I would be desperate for the UK to sign the Withdrawal Agreement or cancel Article 50 as that would be great for Germany. It would also mean the UK looking stupid in the eyes of the rest of the world as we dithered and then climbed down over our future, saying we cannot manage to be independent and govern ourselves.
205 Comments
Comments are closed.
January 18, 2019
It is not possible for the UK to look any more stupid than it does right now. And it’s your fault, with your wild stories about how easy Brexit would be. News today that not one single trade deal will be ready to roll over on 29 March. Another of your Brexit promises broken
Reply Untrue
January 18, 2019
It is not true that there are no trade deals ready for March. The Fantastic Mr Fox has revealed one already. Our deals with France, Germany, Spain, Italy and dozens more powerful European countries will end in the event of a no deal. As will deals we have done through the EU with big countries like Canada, South Korea and Japan.
But in their place Mr Fox has already signed a deal with the mighty Swaziland. I went to Swaziland once. They make great candles and, well, not much else. But the candles will be useful when the lights go out. Well done Mr Fox. Well done.
January 18, 2019
Leaving the EU is not so.ely about trade, in fact it is not the first or most important to leave. This was created by Treason May and Hammond.
All this nonsense about being poorer. Cameron told us we would be poorer and we still voted out! The worm Osborne got everyone and his uncle to scare us along these lines, we voted out. We do not want the EU to control our security, police or defence. Independent self governing nation that is why we voted leave. Get on with WTO terms then try to negotiate a trade deal with the EU.
January 18, 2019
I see Boris has been ruffling all the right feathers:
LibDems, Labour, ………. Sir Alan Duncan
January 18, 2019
JR, I have written to my MP giving him the benefit of my view.
I just watched the latest Leave means Leave meeting at Westminster. Nigel Farage, IDS, Kate Hoey and Esther McVey. It is shocking what McVey says about Chequers and the servitude plan. May’s behaviour is beyond disgraceful. The ministerial cowards in cabinet not prepared to stand up for but betray our country is also truly shocking. According to McVey, Cabinet actually thought they would easily win the vote!
Time is getting close that the public need to take back control and oust treacherous MPs from both main parties. Farage had to tolerate far more than Soubry. Further Soubry knows her language on Question Time about Farage (was unacceptable ed). No point whinging by her tweets about others.
We read today No.10 spokesman saying there will be No substantive change to May’s plan. If correct she is embarked on a charade of talks banking that MPs will support her servitude plan to leaving on WTO terms.
January 18, 2019
WTO rules are in place.
No increases or introduction of tariffs or barriers to trade against another WTO member without their agreement.
That’s a great deal.
Unless May gives up that deal
January 18, 2019
Project Fear 3.0
Now the lights will go out.
Hilarious.
PS Andy/Les
No trade deals can be finalised until we leave the EU so to keep saying we have none signed yet is silly.
January 18, 2019
“Now the lights will go out”
That was on the cards as soon as the absurd Climate Change Act was voted in. Nothing to do with Brexit.
January 18, 2019
Dave, yes quite right. It’s been a risk since all the renewables came on board. I am sure power cuts can be manipulated though and blamed on Brexit. I suppose it’s nothing to do with the fact that we have shut down alot of reliable forms of power??? And they want us all to drive electric cars!
January 18, 2019
Agree.
We are likely to get power cuts in the future when our rising demand for energy meets the policy of reducing supply capacity.
January 18, 2019
Andy,
To paraphrase Mrs Merton, what is it about the corrupt, undemocratic, incompetent, arrogant, totalitarian, bureaucratic money-pit which is inflicting austerity on parts of Europe while officials receive ever-increasing funding for themselves, that you so admire?
January 18, 2019
Or again, what is about the country which pays for a third of the EU budget that first attracted the Germans to the idea of not letting it leave?
January 18, 2019
Merkel closed German nukes and chose wind and solar instead. As a result, they now have high Co2 emissions caused by using more coal and high domestic electricity bills. Yesterday, our energy minister Mr Clarke was asked by the MP for Glasgow what was he going to do about the dangerous situation in Scotland, where their nuke is closing and their big coal station had already closed, leaving them with masses of wind power and a small gas station. He was worried about the times when for 65% of the time the wind does not blow. Clarke answered that we had produced plenty of renewable energy in a short time and that the smart grid would keep Scotland’s lights on. Earlier, he said that electricity storage was important. It can only last for minutes. Presumably, he meant that English gas and nukes would fill the gap. The problem is that half the English nukes are about to close, no gas stations are being built and his department had done the usual thing and tried to order new nukes, all of different types and has failed to finance them. This is the minister for business and energy and he doesn’t have a clue.
January 18, 2019
Perhaps this is why Clarke doesn’t have s clue about how just in time works either. Just as Justin Welby thinks WTO is immoral and Justin Time will put us all into purgatory.
January 18, 2019
I suspect Mr Clarke was refering to things like the Pitlochry Hydroelectric Scheme which has worked for many years. However that scheme does not supply enough electricity to fill the shortfall without resorting to power from elsewhere in the UK, and I don’t know of any plans to build more.
January 19, 2019
I think he was referring to batteries.
January 22, 2019
Stred, hydroelectric systems with double lakes also act as effective stockpiles of power. (Water is pumped back to the higher lake during low-load using surplus power from the grid and re-used at peak times to generate, which allows longer term storage.) It is more efficient and longer term than batteries, but I don’t know if our current schemes have this.
I’m probably giving our Energy Minister too much credit for knowing his field.
January 18, 2019
“I hear people saying ‘oh we won’t have any [free trade agreements] before we leave’. Well believe me we’ll have up to 40 ready for one second after midnight in March 2019,” (Dr Liam Fox)
January 18, 2019
Also, judging by the way he’s fouling up Brexit, I’m starting to think Liam Fox is a Remainer in disguise, along with David ‘Quitter’ Davis.
January 18, 2019
Merlin
Any idea how many are ready to go? Hint you could follow the D I T on Twitter where they announce them all
January 18, 2019
If you were not so full of hate and sarcasm, you’d be an empty shell. Unfortunately, for you, your snide asides are easily refutable and I wait with anticipation to see what garbage you will come up with next. Still not too late to depart to one of the other EU member states. Be quick as they may be reducing in number in the next few years.
January 18, 2019
Andy sneering at African countries. Not a good look. The Swaziland deal is one of six African ones (including South Africa) rolling over from the EU. Tariff-free trade with these countries is a more progressive way of providing aid to these countries than handing out cash, not sure why Andy isn’t in favour.
January 18, 2019
The enemies of Brexit and democracy – May, Hammond, the BBC, the 202 MPs who supported May’s appalling non Brexit surrender deal are the ones that really look stupid.
January 18, 2019
According to the Telegraph today:-
As many as 20 mid-ranking ministers are believed to have told the PM that they will quit the Government to ensure they can support the Letwin-Boles-Morgan plan to block a no-deal Brexit and potentially hand formal control to backbenchers.
They really do seems to be determined to bury the party!
January 18, 2019
Are there 21 ministers in other parties that would balance out?
January 18, 2019
Their main qualification for being appointed by May in the first place was they could be relied on try to stop the UK leaving the EU. So their pathetic antics are hardly a surprise.
January 18, 2019
Add Obama, Clinton, the Pope the whole main stream media including the once Brexit Daily Mail who have now joined the traitors camp.
January 18, 2019
Pope Benedict has been very critical of the EU over the years. He’s more Conservative than Pope Francis.
Catholic Church split over Brexit exact same as Secular Britain. Prominent Hard Brexiters are Catholics: J Rees-Mogg, Bill Cash, E Leigh, and IDS.
For Conservative / Orthodox Catholics (as opposed to Liberal ones), Sovereignty is a sacred right and part of Patriotism which is a virtue in Catholicism (although, like sex, money and power, patriotism can be abused) – related to the virtue of love of Family. (However like Secular Conservatives, Catholic Conservatives also differ about how / when to implement Sovereignty – that all the conditions are right to implement it without unintended consequences).
It was precisely Protestant non-conformists, during the Reformation, and later, who attacked the notion of Patriotism as being ‘worldly’ (and ‘Catholic’). And it was these particular Protestants and others who unleashed socialism and anarchy (just look at the Levellers / Diggers during the English Civil War). But it was precisely the Catholic Church that challenged movements like this as heresy before the Reformation (Heresy wasn’t just about doctrine but also about socialistic-like/anarchic-like political views of the world – and often a close crossover between religious and political views here).
Again, it was the Catholic Church which introduced, in the UK, the Monarchy, Parliament, Judiciary, Oxford, Cambridge, Beautiful Cathedrals and Churches, Guilds – Catholic Work Ethic, Eton, Winchester, Grammar Schools, and so on.
The Barons at Magna Carta were Catholics. And Shakespeare was probably a Catholic, too. Elgar, our greatest composer was Catholic. And our greatest WW2 general, General Slim was Catholic, as were the founders of the SAS and the Commandos – during WW2.
January 18, 2019
Justin Welby, nearly all actors pop musicians and everyone in The Arts, that Japanese chap who came over ……
January 18, 2019
I think it is true that May looks stupid, intransigent and a liar. The country will look stupid in the eyes of the world for allowing her to remain in post. We voted leave she is failing to deliver, her servitude plan made that absolutely clear. Her lies to claim otherwise only discredit her further.
What happened to the repeated mantra: nothing agreed until everything agreed?
No deal must be the leading contender as it fulfils referendum and manifesto promises by both parties. The only other option is to have a clear out at Westminster of all the shysters by a declaration they want to be in or out of the EU and want to be elected on that premise.
Secondly, ÂŁ39 billion off the table, backstop off the table, out of customs union and single market or alternatives names for the same, political declaration off the table.
Security and defence off the table to be discussed at later point after everything else resolved and after EU countries pay their 2 percent. No 2 percent no discussion.
May is he most dishonest PM in living memory. She already turned down alternatives by many others and went behind the back of those who were leading and writing a Brexit plan for the UK. Totally underhand. May turned down trade deal offers as it might upset the EU according to Hannah and one from the US. Instead she tried to force through a political declaration with servitude at its heart and being in the customs union and single market by another name!
She was in collusion with the EU, and I suspect still is. Totally untrustworthy. Baker states May’s cabel of secret planners undermined constitution by going behind the back of Dexu etc to write her plan that got voted down.
May stated collective responsibility back in force, why is Hammond not sacked?
January 18, 2019
Spot on.
January 18, 2019
Well said, Hope! All of it in a nutshell! (Well, almost!)
January 18, 2019
For May to have managed to be more mendacious than Blair and Cameron took some doing. But May rose to the challenge magnificently and succeeded beyond all the expectations of her.
January 18, 2019
🙂
January 18, 2019
The most she’s ever achieved as an MP.
January 18, 2019
She did good, didn’t she?
January 18, 2019
Indeed. Does she know quite how much she is now despised by most sound Conservative voters for this mendacity and betrayal?
January 18, 2019
Apparently she doesn’t read the comments on her behaviour in the press. Can’t for the life of me think why.
January 18, 2019
I don’t know what the outcome will be. Legally we should currently leave at the end of March. However Remain are trying to force changes.
If Remain can threaten to resign if No Deal is not taken off the table, can Leave and the DUP not threaten to do so if we head towards Brexit in Name Only?
A General Election does not frighten me and should not frighten genuine Brexiteers. Country before Party.
January 18, 2019
A general election with the dishonest, socialist, Maybot as the Tory leader with tax to death Hammond, even against the appalling Corbyn would be a disaster.
January 18, 2019
Couldn’t be a bigger disaster than her last effort, could it? Oh, wait ….
January 18, 2019
Why indeed, countless justifications to fire him the main one being his idiotic, highest and most idiotic taxes for 40 year policy and his constant running down of the UK with project fear. (and his retention of Carney).
January 18, 2019
Les Bourne, the fault certainly does not lie with JR or with anybody else who has not been in government and who has not otherwise been complicit in the constant invention and propagation of brazen lies about the consequences of leaving the EU without a deal. Or, as I would much prefer it to be understood, without any special or preferential trade deal between the UK and the EU.
The person most to blame is Theresa May, who has followed the long established top level Tory party practice of giving priority to the interests and convenience of the 6% of UK companies which export 12% of GDP to the rest of the EU. Bear in mind that one of her predecessors, John Major, was perfectly prepared to sign us up to the euro at the behest of business pressure groups like the CBI, and that was only averted with difficulty by other Tory politicians like JR.
If you asked me to explain why they have been pursuing this patently foolish policy for the past six decades then I could only conjecture that it was connected with the post war pressure to “Export or die”:
https://www.britishpathe.com/video/export-or-die
while maintaining a fixed exchange rate, coupled with the decline of the Empire with its trade preference and also the US strategic error over Suez.
January 18, 2019
Watch McVey on YouTube at the last Leave means Leave gathering. Her comments about Chequers and the servitude plan deserve consideration. May is a national disgrace and deserves to be hauled out of No. 10 and face investigation for treason.
January 18, 2019
It’s not the UK people looking stupid. Unless you count believing the politicians’ duplicitous lies.
January 18, 2019
It would have been easy if the remainers hadn’t tried to sabotage Brexit at every turn. This is a Leave area but our MP is a remainer, he should represent his constituents!
January 18, 2019
John, German politicians can see it, you can see it, many out here in the big wide World can see it, but the majority of our Mp’s are absolutely blind to it !
Amazing, simply amazing.
January 18, 2019
Dear Alan–I asked Sir J earlier today why he never appears on the Letters page of the DT but no Reply–I should have thought that the article above would have made an excellent letter. In my little world few seem to know what he has written.
January 18, 2019
Leslie, broadly speaking a letter in the Telegraph would be preaching to the converted.
Does anyone know if Sir John has been asked to write for The Independent, The Guardian or The Observer?
January 18, 2019
Dear sm–You have lost me because even in the “converted” there are umpteen views all over the place and Sir J’s views are more cogently argued than most–also we are not talking any kind of either/or choice meaning a letter of two does not stop other persuasive efforts. I repeat Sir J’s views are not as well known as they should be. He comes across to me as a bit of a loner–why isn’t he teamed up more with Boris or Jacob or Nigel or preferably all three??
January 18, 2019
But why write in the DT where most readers are already convinced? Does it not make more sense to try other newspapers less favourable to one’s views? What is the point of the Pope preaching to devout Catholics?
January 18, 2019
hefner
Good point, except the Guardian and Independent dont publish letters they dont agree with
January 18, 2019
But they’re not blind to it, are they? That’s what is so unforgivable in their actions.
It is almost a Vichy attitude – we’re afraid of what they can do to us, so we’ll just keep our heads down, take our reward, do what we’re told and make sure everyone else does too – then bingo! Sorted!
January 18, 2019
Well said !
The media coverage afforded to the true Brexit position has been appalling in the media generally.
Your article is always a good read, but sometimes I worry that no one with any common sense is reading it.
January 18, 2019
Dear Mary–Cross out the “with…sense” and I am with you 100%
January 18, 2019
I heard the reports today. It said they wanted us to stay and wrote “from the bottom of their hearts”. “Bottom of the wallets” more like. They know they are the ones who will have to make up the lion’s share of the contribution we eventually won’t be making. No wonder they’d rather we stayed.
January 18, 2019
I think it would be a good idea for Remainers in the cabinet, such as Hammond, to go out on the road and speak to Leavers about why he knows better than them.
It’s time the Remainer MPs get out of their bubble and go out into the real world and face up to the public anger. Let’s see if they are the “big I am” then.
January 18, 2019
Our MP will send out a Resident survey about what they want for the town but never asked what we wanted from the Referendum, takes a stand against the majority choice in the constituency. Residents said they feel neglected and forgotten locally already (an area they can influence directly about) if MPs carry on ignoring electors what do they expect to happen in the future? If they keep saying they are in chaos can’t sort this out between them, refuse to meet and rebel against the choice made and vote with the EU against the UK then I despair about what will happen in 2019.
January 18, 2019
You should have stopped at the end of your first line!
January 18, 2019
Remainer MPs should go out and speak to Leave voters.
It would reinforce two things. Firstly, that Brexiteers do not even agree with each other about what Brexit means.
Secondly, the only thing most Leavers care about is immigration. And not of white Christian Europeans.
January 18, 2019
Andy, The purpose of Remain Ministers emerging from their Westminster Remain bubble is to listen to the majority that voted to leave the EU treaties, and then implement our decision. Rather than tell us what we are (supposedly) thinking as you do. No wonder Remain propaganda gets it so wrong.
January 18, 2019
Andy
You are so lucky that Sir John protects you from my posts exposing you
January 18, 2019
Andy
“Remainer MPs should go out and speak to Leave voters.”
Good idea, you’re welcome to come along too.
“the only thing most Leavers care about is immigration”
Not so.
“And not of white Christian Europeans.”
That particular comment speaks volumes about you, Andy.
January 18, 2019
So Andy
What do you actually MEAN by “Remain” ?
Is that Remain with the euro ? Remain with the EU army ? Remain with the Financial Transaction Tax ? Remain with common VAT ???
You don’t even know who your MEPs are ! Let alone what EU parties they belong to and what they stand for.
January 19, 2019
Andy, not for the fist time old son, you are making statements about MY motives without any factual evidence.
January 18, 2019
German economic imperialism is at the very heart of the EU and the Eurozone without which the whole shabby scam would come crashing down
You cannot destroy nations, their democracies and their histories using economic and industrial leverage. Down the road leads turmoil and authoritarianism
We want our sovereign democracy and our Parliament returned to the UK and we want that process to start ASAP
January 18, 2019
‘that road’
January 18, 2019
”Mitteleuropa”? The Prussian ideal brought into the 21st century, perhaps?
The words at the European Parliament visitors’ centre about sovereignty show clearly and unequivocally what the aim is.
January 18, 2019
But Bismarck was always concerned with balance of power-keeping friends with Russia,leaving Austria-Hungary sovereign (albeit in a subordinate position) and,famously,eschewing the Balkans.
Interestingly,the mid 19th century ideologists of German expansionism-people like Friedrich List,Wilhem Rocher and Helmuth Von Moltke had in mind northern asiatic Turkey,Palestine and Mesopotamia -ideas which found substance in the Berlin-Baghdad rail project which was never quite completed.
January 18, 2019
The EU is essentially an American construct.From a recently published book by Benn Steil-“The Marshall Plan-Dawn of the Cold War”:
“William Clayton(US Undersecretary for economic affairs)envisioned Europe’s future as a single,fully integrated economy-without individual countries harbouring pretensions to self-sufficient economies or unnecessary duplications of production.The entire system,as he saw it,would be powered by the Ruhr,the industrial area of Germany,which meant that Stalin’s attempt to access the region’s wealth would need to be fought tooth and nail…..the Marshall Plan helped first to create the conditions for the EU by forcing the French to accept an industrial West German state and then to lay the foundations for a European mentality that wasn’t merely pro-American but pro-market.”
(Stalin had originally wanted Germany broken up into lots of little states but “with Soviet forces more firmly in control,he was confident he could extract war reparations and material equipment from the country as a whole which would mean keeping Germany intact so that the Kremlin could more easily draw on the wealth of the country’s industrialised West.Marshall was shocked by Stalin’s demand for a national plebiscite in Germany.Aware of the advanced state of Soviet political organisation in the country,Marshall knew this was the kind of contest the US would lose as it had in Poland and Romania…”
January 18, 2019
In the excellent 1997 book “Britain Held Hostage” by Lindsay Jenkins, still well worth reading even now two decades later, Chapter 4 is headed “The American Trigger”, and it mentions the activities of Will Clayton.
January 18, 2019
The Germans allowed countries like Greece to join the EURO, even though they never qualified to join, and gave them soft loans provided that the Greeks and others spent it back in Germany eg German submarines. In effect they subsidised via the Greeks and others their own economies. Now the music on this money merry go round has stopped, and Germany’s and everybody else’s fellow EU member / Cash Cow is leaving, hopefully, things are not looking so good.
Reminds me of that, Irving Berlin song : Let’s Face the Music and Dance 🙂
January 18, 2019
January 18, 2019
In 1962 he was persuaded to denounce the British government’s attempt to enter the Common Market: “Britain will gradually be pulled down and down” he admonished, “and the whole English way of life will be in danger.” He reiterated the point in 1971: “Your politicians have made money their god, but what they are buying is disaster.”
He added:”They’ll cheat you yet, those Germans.”
Captain Charles Upham VC&bar
1908-1994
It wasn’t as though we weren’t warned.
January 18, 2019
As Corporal Jones almost said :”They don’t like it Upham!”
January 18, 2019
Germany reports that the UK is still it’s 3rd largest export market for them. They are a seeing a slow down already- nothing to do with Brexit. They need the UK in as one of the top 5 contributors to fund an increasingly federal Europe. Yes, they want us to keep funding their export success. WTO Brexit please. Less Project Fear.
January 18, 2019
Indeed David, there are reports that Germany actually tipped into economic recession in the final quarter of 2018.
January 18, 2019
A very interesting article by Melanie Phillips on her website: she’s been talking to one Shanker Singham (an international trade policy expert and competition lawyer) who says that about two weeks before the Withdrawal Agreement the EU offered May an FTA because they were worried that she would turn down the WA.
After a meeting with EU politicians and technical experts the EU, Singham says, will agree a free trade deal on the UK’s own red-line terms of no customs union or single market or ECJ control – but ONLY if it believes that otherwise the UK will leave with no deal.
January 18, 2019
It’s not rocket surgery.
I agreed a deal yesterday, and the risk of me pulling out motivated the supplier to eventually drop their price by 37½%.
If you want a deal, your counterparty has be convinced that you are prepared to walk away. The suggestion that “no deal” is taken off of the table is absurd. If anything it’s the ÂŁ39 billion that should be “taken off of the table”.
January 18, 2019
@ David J
As you know, the ERG propose no or very low tariffs. So what would stop “the Germans” to go on selling their products in the UK?
January 18, 2019
Rien, Because under our “no or low tariff” schedule the rest of the world will be able to compete with Germany on a level playing field within the UK (you know, WTO rules). Doh . . .
January 19, 2019
German manufacturers might continue to market their products here but that doesn’t mean people would necessarily continue to buy them. Cheaper competing products from the UK and elsewhere, EU/German political and industrial behaviour, all sorts of reasons come in to play.
January 18, 2019
To be fair on the Germans – it is not hard for them to take the Brexiteers for fools when, at every turn, the Brexiteers have repeatedly proven the Germans right.
January 18, 2019
Andy
Yeh Deutsche Bank are setting the finance world alight right now, The German economy is doing really well, everyones moved to Frankfurt…. Oh !
Increasingly the evidence shows that Brexit is the right move, because the media is dominated by the Ultra remainers we keep hearing the screaming and wailing of this small bunch of people.
Massive poll yesterday showing 63% of people STILL want to leave the EU
January 18, 2019
Great to see the shock on the faces of the panel on Question Time last night when there was a huge cheer after an audience member said we should just leave on March 29th.
Quido has a clip available.
January 18, 2019
Edward2
Indeed 5 guests present, Four remainers, and one leaver (usual ratio)
All three politicians totally incoherent, vague, confused and rambling, the two non politicians, absolutely clear and concise with their views.
Sort of reflects our Parliament against the Public.
January 18, 2019
@ Andy
Keep going old son your arrogance shines through in every posting.
January 18, 2019
He is getting very bitter, perhaps because the appalling nature of his side is becoming clear to all. He is also utterly materialistic : it all depends on trade, tariffs, and other ephemera. Independence doesn’t seem to count. National pride certainly doesn’t.
January 19, 2019
What independence?
I remember the years before EU membership. We are no less independent now as we were then.
We still live in an oligarchy with unelected head of state, lords, civil service, judiciary.
In my region of Britain, East Anglia, a few families still own whole villages and most of the land. Truly feudal and of course true blue.
January 19, 2019
margaret howard
I agree entirely so why add yet another layer to that even further away and with less interest in the people of East Anglia
Throw of the yoke of the EU
Then dissolve the House of Lords
Then have an English Parliament
Then reform Parliament
We’ve made a start, what are you doing other than trying to maintain it all ?
January 18, 2019
Turboterrier
We are lucky , you ought to see what Andy posts on Twitter
January 18, 2019
Perhaps, Andy, you might give us your take on why, exactly, the Germans wish to keep us clutched to its bosom.
Do they fear for the UK’s well being if it strikes out alone?
Do they believe it is in the UK’s interests to stay shackled to the EU?
Do they believe we can’t rule ourselves so wish (altruistically) to help out?
Do they think our economy will suffer and therefore wish to save us from ourselves?
Or do they just want us for our money?
January 18, 2019
L Jones, No, no, Andy thinks the EU will prop us up out of the generosity of its hearts to the tune of nearly ÂŁ10 for every ÂŁ1 we put in (genuine RemaIN propaganda!). Oh oh hahahaha ….
January 18, 2019
Andy,
The negotiations are being conducted by Remainers not Brexiters.
To make matters worse the largely pro-EU Parliament is trying to overthrow the people’s vote in 2016 to leave the EU, either by brazenly seizing power and cancelling the result, or by telling the EU that we won’t leave without a deal thus giving a nod to the EU to refuse to negotiate any sort of deal that would be acceptable to the UK.
Of course we look stupid when our Parliament is trying to undermine the referendum result whilst pretending to respect it.
January 19, 2019
Yawn!!!!!!!!!!!!1111111
January 18, 2019
Sir John,
one of your best and most pithy posts; as usual spot on. I sense that your anger is rising as the establishment fix becomes more blatant. When the next vote of confidence is tabled by Labour, surely you must, with a clear conscience, support the motion and remove this destructively obstinate and inadequate Prime Minister before winning the second motion with a more patriotic Caretaker PM, who would remind ‘wavering’ MPs (and local res-election committees) of their commitment to the manifesto, and moving to No Deal.
January 18, 2019
Indeed. The only way now to save the Tory party and avoid Corbyn/McDonnall/SNP is to respect the referendum result and leave on WTO terms (or better terms should they actually offer them). May, Hammond and the remainers must be stopped from the further betrayal they are surely planning.
January 18, 2019
Lifelogic
Agreed !
Shame May is going to do the opposite and probably give yet more ground, because that is what Labour and the LibDems want for their support.
If May gives away any more it simply will not be worth leaving, which is what Remainer Mp’s would love.
The betrayal of the people will then be complete.
January 18, 2019
And the fate of the Conservative Party will be sealed.
January 18, 2019
Of course they do, we are the second or possibly third largest nett contributor, Germany being number one. I am unsure of our position because France gets so much back in support of her farmers. There are only about eight to ten nett contributors the rest living on handouts. I don’t object to the system, it is what happens between areas of the UK. However I can understand Germany’s disquiet.
January 18, 2019
Do you take into account, in your approval of our redistribution to other EU areas, the very poor areas in Britain which always shame me to visit?
Should we not look at our own poverty, and do something about it?
January 18, 2019
Sir JR
Or actually it could be because a lot of us European wold like to keep the UK in the EU, because we need a large, democratic and liberal nation, to keep a balance between a liberal northern Europe and a more centralised southern Europe and we support the values that the UK stands for.
January 18, 2019
Well said, but all that can happen without a federal Europe.
January 18, 2019
hans
Or more likely they need our money and are terrified of our global lead in Finance, Fin Tech and Digital
The EU is a bust, if you hadn’t let it be hijacked by a bunch of dinosaur failed politician you could have had a free , modern, supportive trading block. Without democracy there was no check on the people running it.
January 18, 2019
Totally agree Libertarian.
It is tragic the way the EEC has been hijacked by failed left wing politicians and turned into the failing EU
Impoverishing millions in many member nations.
January 18, 2019
Nonsense, the EU just want to keep us under their control and fleece us :
Large net contribution.
ÂŁ100bn/year trading deficit
Taking advantage of our generous welfare systems
Taking advantage of our free-at-the-point-of service NHS.
Asymmetric immigration to counter the Euro’s disastrous policies for the southern EU states.
Taking over our fishing grounds and our military assets.
Etc..
January 19, 2019
Original Richard,
Read, what I wrote, I wrote Europeans not EU, so stop this nonsense
January 19, 2019
Hans, You “wrote Europeans not EU”. So where are all these non-EU, non-UK, “Europeans” who would like to keep the UK in the EU?
January 18, 2019
What utter tosh !
January 18, 2019
Hans, for about 300 years, from the time of the 1st Duke of Marlborough, Great Britain has ‘kept the balance’ in Europe, without being part of it politically.
Basically, it seems you recognise that the whole EU edifice is built on some very shifting sands.
January 18, 2019
Hans, We don’t want any more of your dirigiste EU ideology, thank you. It’s you who does. Well, my advice is to Leave instead of continuing to be duped by the latest European authoritarian political fad. And this time we’re not going to help your compatriots out of the mire they have voluntarily jumped into.
January 19, 2019
NickC
you talk so much nonsense
January 19, 2019
Hans, So what is nonsense?
That the EU is an ideology? Yet the EU is a stand-alone artificial political construct – a system of ideas forming a political theory – so is by definition an ideology.
Or maybe it was the description dirigiste you objected to? Yet the EU with its own centralised control of even the minutest details of products in its centrally organised single market is the very definition of dirigiste.
Similarly the EU is authoritarian – the EU is prescriptive and proscriptive; anti-democratic and undemocratic; of the politicians, by the politicians, for the politicians. Yes the EU is authoritarian.
As for us not coming to rescue you again – you think we will? The EU (with your support) has taken us for a ride, used the UK as your cash-cow, stolen our fish, instructed us how to behave, set up policies to damage us, obstructed us leaving, been contemptuous, sneering and intransigent. Fooled once shame on you, fooled twice shame on me, as the Russians say. No, we’re not coming to your aid again.
January 18, 2019
So true. Most of the political class and big business are consumed with self-interest, timidity, pessimism,, incompetence, or a mix of all. People I talk to in Asia are amazed at the situation the UK finds itself in.
January 18, 2019
@ James Barr
Incompetence comes out of ignorance and between them they create arrogance.
You got it so right
January 18, 2019
Alas only 110 sound Tory MPs from nearly three times that number, and doubtless nearly all of these voted for the totally idiotic climate change act and Hammond’s appalling budgets and HS2 so most, of even these, not very sound or competent.
What a sad position for the party to be in. Where are the new Peter Lilley, Norman Tebbet and JR types. Were they kept out by the likes of Major and hug a husky Cameron – with his dire A list of wet, remainer, PC, greencrap lefties?
January 18, 2019
Wouldn’t it be nice if there was a political party to vote for that would abolish the climate change act, HS2 and other budgetary nonsense?
Oh, wait, there is.
But voters have been trained to ignore them because they can’t win.
See the problem?
January 18, 2019
The effective takeover by Germany is nearly complete; as soon as another German takes over from J C Juncker, as expected, it’ll be final and not a shot fired this time! How is it the other European nations accept it?
Keep working the delaying tactics, a general election should take care of March.
January 18, 2019
I doubt that many will agree with you (so very un-PC, xenophobic, nationalistic – insert here your own epithets!), but I do agree. Historical evidence shows that by 1942-3 the German industrialists and economists began to understand that WWII was not winnable and decided that if Germany was in future to rule Europe (which I suspect they thought to be their destiny), it could only be done via political, economic and industrial means. Financed by the Marshall plan, the Germany that arose from the ashes of WWII kept that objective in mind and, when able to do so, started along that route leading to pretty much where we are today. Let’s face it; despite recent wobbles in the German economy they are once again the political and financial masters of Europe.
January 18, 2019
Martyn G
Have you ever met a German businessman?
January 18, 2019
A second referendum will be held.
Do we boycott it or do we take the risk of giving it legitimacy by entering into a pledge to honour the result once we place our ‘X’ ?
Neither Andy nor Newmania nor any of the People’s Vote advocates seem to realise what they did in 2016. The referendum question seemed to be acceptable to them up until the result.
Contrary to propaganda it was not Boomers who pushed the result past the post but (quite fittingly) Generation ‘X’, of which we three are all members. I may well have another 50 years left in me – it is no exaggeration to say that the obesity epidemic may be the first time in
our history in which the older generation outlives the younger.
It is not just the fact that the far from spoilt pension-deprived retirees are still to be seen driving buses and delivering post but that they are fit enough and motivated enough to be able to do it.
January 18, 2019
Anon, Whether we boycott the second referendum depends firstly whether there is one (it does look likely), and secondly what the question is (or questions are).
Essentially if it is a Remain vs a slightly less hard Remain, then boycotting is definitely an option. If it is a re-run of Remain vs Leave, where the government faithfully promises it is our decision and they will implement it (sarc), then of course I would vote Leave.
I suspect the Remain establishment may think twice though because having referendums until we get the right answer has too much of the EU Banana state about it even for them.
January 18, 2019
Anonymous
Oh don’t worry, if there is a second referendum [rigged of course] and we get told we lost, then as the minority we’ll have the right to whinge and moan like hell, and even have laws altered to suit our agenda.
And because we’re a minority, we will be accorded more rights and platform than the majority.
What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.
January 18, 2019
There won’t be a second referendum because the outcome would be too unpredictable and it seems likely that leave would win by a larger margin. They messed up first time around and will want to dictate the outcome of the Brexit process using Parliament by subverting representative democracy to ‘take back control.’ The unintended consequences will be quite something.
January 19, 2019
Cerbey, No, Parliament gave us the Referendum. And promised to implement our decision. There was no subversion. Unlike with Remain now.
January 18, 2019
It makes you wonder just how many parties are working against us – How many remoaner groups in this country are funded by external interests – High time this was looked into.
January 18, 2019
Off Topic:
Some very good put downs by Isabel Oakeshott on Diane Abbott on the short section of Question Time that I watched last night.
But of more interest was the total audience support for a WTO exit from the EU, Mrs May and Parliament should take note of the mood in the country…
January 18, 2019
Yes, absolutely right!
January 18, 2019
Countries do not compete; businesses and sports teams compete. Countries cooperate ( UN, NATO, G7, IMF, EU,etc.). The view that it is us against them is very 20th century. The 21st requires countries to work together to achieve balanced economic growth while countering pollution, climate change and so on. Rather than vague promises of a better tomorrow, consider the facts: UK gdp has grown steadily throughout our time in the EU- we are the 5th largest economy because of our membership not in spite of. I would like to hear from an individual, a business or an organisation who can show they will be better off if we leave. Even Canada is in dispute with Spanish fishermen despite their FTA with the EU.
January 18, 2019
Countries don’t compete?-what utter rubbish!Tell that to the Americans,Chinese and Russians,etc
Do you actually read/watch the news?
January 18, 2019
“Rather than vague promises of a better tomorrow, consider the facts: UK gdp has grown steadily throughout our time in the EU – we are the 5th largest economy because of our membership not in spite of.”
Yes, by all means do consider the facts, steadyeddie, not your false facts but the true facts as they have so often been presented here, for example:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/02/09/the-bank-seeks-to-slow-the-economy-some-more/#comment-918121
“I quite often cite this website:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-annual
which says that the trend growth rate has been 2.45% a year since 1956, but this other reference:
http://brexitcentral.com/does-brexit-mean-cliff-edge-more-shallow-pothole/
takes it back a bit further:
“Background noise apart, UK GNP since 1949 has grown at about 2.5 per cent per annum, irrespective of the party in office, regardless of geopolitical events … ””
And that includes the geopolitical event of the UK joining the EEC; anybody who did not know beforehand when we joined the EEC, and was invited to try to work it out by looking at this ONS chart of GDP growth rate since the last war:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyp/pn2
would be unable to do so.
And the same for the creation of the EU Single Market, which according to the EU itself – in fact Michel Barnier himself – has had only a marginal economic effect, as mentioned in my other comment below.
January 18, 2019
Thank you Denis for making my point so admirably.
January 18, 2019
sillyeddie
January 18, 2019
Steadyeddie, But your point was that the UK is “… the 5th largest economy because of our membership [of the EU] not in spite of …”, and Denis Cooper has shown your point is not true.
Anyway you need to get your ducks in a row with Margaret Howard since she insists we are the 7th biggest economy now, down from 5th, “because of Brexit”. Even though we haven’t had Brexit yet, and we were the world’s 5th biggest economy when we joined the EEC.
January 18, 2019
Dear Steadyeddie
The UK was the THIRD largest economy before we joined, according to ultra remainer margaret howard we are now 7th whilst still a member
This will come as a shock but on the whole countries dont trade. Trade is conducted between buyers and sellers . The only reason politicians stick their noses in is to power grab, which is why Trump & the EU both have exactly the same trade policy
The EU is an oligarchy led by unelected , failed dinosaur politicians who have no grasp of the future at all . They are consigning the EU to the backwaters of tech development in biodiversity, agriculture, financial services and digital technology . There is not one single manufacturer of mobile phones in the EU.
In around a decade the UK and German economy will be about the same relative size but fall to 12th and 10th largest economies. China will be the worlds biggest market and India will be as big or bigger than the EU (28 or 27 respectively). If the UK wants to maintain it’s current economic influence it needs to trade with the world between the tropics not Europe. India has already overtaken France.
January 18, 2019
Very good post Sir John.
We are only wanted for our money and this has never changed.
These pathetic remainers still after all the upheaval since the original referendum cannot and have not come up with good one reason to stay. Same old same old about biggest trading market but that only works when the trading is more balanced and they need us far more than we need them. This country has been brainwashed over the last 40 years and we have been totally programmed to having to rely on the EU. The remainers have no guts let alone belief in what this country is all about. They lack vision and purpose and it is reflected on a daily basis in their replies and comments on this and other blogs. Totally pathetic all of them. If they are all into the EU so much then go forth and multiply and try living over there and then see how other countries abuse the system ignore the rulings and just do what is best for them.
This country has become the EU junkie totally dependent on the next little fix thrown to us by their senior executive fully knowing that like all dealers they are and always be in control. Luckily for this country over 17m people could read the situation for what it really is and gave us the chance to kick the habit once and for all. The remainers sad to say are totally hooked and utterly dependent on them for their very existence
January 18, 2019
I get the strong impression that the whole Remainer argument is based on FEAR OF CHANGE. It is noticeable that most Remainers come from London and the big cities – mostly the professional middle classes who do well out of the current system and wish to preserve their advantages (Goodhart’s ‘Anywheres’). They think Project Fear is a convincing argument only because it is Fear that rules their own lives. They are generally glass half-empty types. They think they are ‘progressive’ when, in fact, they really fear any radical change to the status quo.
This is why I have suggested that, alongside our WTO exit on 29th March (with FTA to be negotiated soon after), simultaneously we offer the Remain politicians a Charter of Established Rights, whereby established workers rights, environmental rights, and animal welfare standards are given additional protection (by making such chartered rights lessened in the future only though a 75%+ parliamentary majority). Many Remain politicians’ central FEAR, I believe, is that such standards will be lowered if we leave the EU – and that is what they are really fighting for, and not some weird love of the EU which, to me, is inexplicable and illogical. Thus this Charter of Established Rights should break the current impasse in Parliament, allowing us to leave the EU with far less political opposition.
Sir John – I hope you can get a discussion going in parliament on this.
January 18, 2019
James bertram
I agree that remainers fear change, they are also virtue signallers
However the UK already has workers rights and animal welfare rights in excess of the rest of the EU
Most remainers are totally ignorant of the detail of most things they just feel safe being protected by a dinosaur oligarchy who won’t let the modern world impinge on their lifestyle. Most of them virtue signal to make up for the fact they are exploiting Eastern European workers .
January 18, 2019
Watch out! The BBC is lobbying for an extension of eu membership (last night’s Newsnight, BBC2) .
The BBC has taken soundings and has reported that the eu may agree to such an extension.
I suspect that some MPs will rally around the BBC’s move. Remainers will do anything to stop Brexit!
January 18, 2019
The Brussels Broadcasting Club is full of people who believe that they are leading beyond authority.
January 18, 2019
Stred, Are you saying that the EU is the BBC’s common purpose?
January 18, 2019
Of course the Germans want us to remain members so we must contribute to the EU budget and the EU can continue to have a ÂŁ100bn/year trade credit with the UK (ÂŁ30bn/year in vehicles and automotive products).
It also protects the German CEOs from prosecution and the German companies from UK fines when they commit huge frauds upon our citizens, etc ed.
January 18, 2019
https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-one-biggest-contributors-eu-budget/
January 18, 2019
Mark B, Sorry, I never ever use any self-styled “fact checking” site or organisation, they’re all grinding an axe. I prefer original sources and making up my own mind.
January 18, 2019
What’s the matter JR- did you get out of the wrong side of the bed this morning?
Just heard Farage on Sky announcing he is going to stand for the EU elections in May- nothing stupid about him- and I bet Hannan will shortly shape up as well. These guys know full well which side their bread is buttered.
And they know the Germans really don’t give two sugars about the direction the UK takes as regards the EU- The UK market will always be there for their cars, for those with the money- what difference to the Germans or our own well off of 5 or 10 per cent extra tariff charge? peanuts
January 18, 2019
Thought you remainers via project fear told us trade with the EU would stop?
Walking away from our biggest market and left to choose the few cars we make in the UK and all that stuff.
Yet now you tell us life will carry on.
January 18, 2019
Staying in the EU beyond 29 Mar is a bad position, yet if that happens, having Nigel Farage representing UK interests is helpful compensation in part. Many of us would happily support & fund 30 with his capability & effectiveness toward better.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s newly-announced arrangement to present from LBC at 6pm on Fridays is a welcome addition to sensible balanced communication about what is achievable & how.
January 18, 2019
Adam
“.. having Nigel Farage representing UK interests is helpful compensation in part. Many of us would happily support & fund 30 with his capability & effectiveness toward better.”
Don’t be so sure about that Adam. You might discover that people have long memories.
During all this betrayal of the people, sovereignty and democracy, where was Farage ? where was UKIP ?
Where were they when we needed them ?
To be honest, after what I’ve seen just lately I’d rather have Michael Gove representing me than anything connected with UKIP past or present.
January 19, 2019
Steve:
Farage has consistently spoken & acted in support of UK’s independence from the EU, possibly doing more than anyone else to achieve it. The quality of his rationale in debate routinely destroys those from opponents.
His strategy for the months ahead is likely to be well-assessed & prepared. Other Brexiteers add distinctive dimensions of performance, yet Farage probably has more effective reach in communicating with & motivating mass audiences.
January 18, 2019
Germany comprises a nation of fine quality people, but what they want is a matter for them.
We people of the British Isles shall maintain our own standards & preferences as an independent nation, free to choose what is best.
Our departure from the EU is equivalent to 19 other members leaving. Each of those has its own duty to satisfy its own people. Staying in to prevent a slippery group from sliding apart is not our purpose.
January 18, 2019
I think the British political establishment has already done a brilliant job of making Briatin look stupid. The Conservative party has been the number one actor in this farce. May and her treasonous cohorts attempting to derail Brexit with every dirty trick known. The rest of the snivelling Remainer rats in parliament completely ignoring their election pledge (as usual) to uphold the vote. The absolute total lack of any democracy in this country is so clear now that even the most dumbed down, tv addled, dimwit can see it. If these lowlife manage to derail Brexit parliament ceases to have any authority in my eyes and I don’t believe I’m alone in that view.
January 18, 2019
It is really disgraceful to see nearly 200 Conservative MPs voting for the EU’s proposed “Withdrawal” Agreement.
Firstly, because it does not contain our ability to unilaterally leave the EU, it cannot be called a “Withdrawal Agreement” and hence does not respect the referendum result or the Conservative Party GE2017 manifesto.
And secondly because it would leave our citizens and businesses totally and permanently exposed to malicious and damaging legislation made by people we do not elect and cannot remove and without any representation or veto.
Furthermore, the Conservative MPs, including I understand up to 20 “mid ranking” cabinet members, who are trying to stop “no deal” are really trying to stop Brexit by making sure that the EU are not prepared to negotiate any sort of deal which would acceptable to the UK, unless of course we are prepared to become a vassal state of the EU.
These Conservative MPs are not respecting the referendum result, nor their Party’s GE2017 manifesto. I would hope they will not receive any votes from leave supporting voters in any subsequent election.
January 18, 2019
” If I were a German politician I would be desperate for the UK to sign the Withdrawal Agreement or cancel Article 50 as that would be great for Germany. “ – wholly understandable, but what are we to make of the British politicians who say those things?
January 18, 2019
Formula57, They’re either dimwits or Quislings, take your pick.
January 18, 2019
Agreed Sir John,
But don’t forget the French contribution…
Slightly off topic: I’m not sure that some in the Westminster bubble actually appreciate that if the present Political Parties try to bounce us into an even softer Brexit than that already correctly rejected, the scope for more extreme Parties sweeping them away at the next election grows. They seem to think that what is happening in France and Germany and elsewhere in the EU cannot happen to them.
January 18, 2019
I have just sent the Daily Telegraph a short letter headed:
“Letter to the Editor – Giving the EU the power to hold us prisoner forever”
in response to their report today:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/17/cabinet-ministers-warn-theresa-may-will-face-mass-resignations/
“Cabinet ministers warn Theresa May she will face mass resignations unless she allows MPs to stop no-deal Brexit”
The letter reads:
“Once upon a time the Tories insisted as a matter of principle that the UK government should not transfer more power to the EU without first obtaining proper constitutional authority, which could include seeking the approval of the people through a referendum. They even went so far as to enshrine that principle in an Act of Parliament, once they had the opportunity. But now we read that a large group of Tory ministers are threatening to resign unless Theresa May agrees to waive our treaty right to leave the EU by unilateral decision, which would be the practical effect of taking a no-deal exit off the table. Have they thought to ask the voters whether they like the idea of giving the EU the power to hold us prisoner forever?”
For the assistance of the letters editor I have appended this note:
“Note: on March 4th 2017 the European Union Committee of the House of Lords published this report on “Brexit and the EU budget”:
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/125/12502.htm
and in paragraph 21 of Appendix 3 it was recalled that during the drafting of Article 50:
“The travaux prĂ©paratoires explain that the two-year cut-off was inserted to ensure that the right of a Member State to withdraw from the EU was unilateral, rather than dependent on the conclusion of a withdrawal agreement … ”
By waiving the right to leave without any withdrawal agreement the UK government would not only be placing itself in a very weak negotiating position, the most commonly expressed objection, it would also be opening the door for the EU to keep us in the EU forever. If the eurocrats wished to do that then it would only be necessary for them to refuse to allow our withdrawal except on terms so harsh that the UK government would inevitably declare them to be unacceptable and would prefer to rescind its notice of withdrawal. Perhaps that is what these rebellious Tory ministers are aiming for?”
January 18, 2019
Denis, Your letter makes a very worthwhile point. Waiving the right to leave unilaterally is a new transfer of power to the EU. So it also changes our rights and obligations. That must be specifically voted for in Parliament (Miller), unless we have a referendum as David Cameron envisaged.
January 18, 2019
Good morning – again
Giving in would have a certain Austrian Corporale laughing from the grave, along with the rest of the world. An international humiliation. Britain, a nation whose former Empire, now Commonwealth of Nations, was the largest the world had ever seen and, whose dismantling was achieved relatively peacefully compared to most. Our parliament heard their calls for freedom and independence and granted it. Sadly, when her own people make those same calls to be free from the EU, they are met with indifference and scorn. What have we done, apart from voting for them, to deserve such miserable wretches ?
January 18, 2019
Mark B
” Our parliament heard their calls for freedom and independence and granted it”
Is that the same parliament that invaded and forcefully annexed them in the first place?
January 18, 2019
Happy with Kuwait?
January 18, 2019
Margaret Howard, Obviously not. The right of self-determination is a human right defined by the UN in 1960. It applies to us escaping from the EU empire as much as India escaping the British Empire.
January 18, 2019
“UK looking stupid in the eyes of the rest of the world as we dithered”
Well you guys have done a good job of that down in Westminster.
The PM is only in No 10 because nobody else wants to job of dealing with Brexit.
The party political system has become so corrupt that 75% of the house of commons wants to ignore the referendum vote and some of those members are brass faced enough to go on TV telling us they are worried about manufacturing jobs… Since when did they become so interested in UK manufacturing?
No Deal – No Problem.
January 18, 2019
As we are on the topic of Germany, here is a letter which the editor of the Maidenhead Advertiser has been kind enough to publish this week under the heading:
“Evidence shows paltry economic gain in being part of the EU”
Which refers to pertinent information in this article from June 2017:
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-even-worst-case-brexit-will-be-bearable-for-eu/
“Germany: Even worst-case Brexit will be bearable for EU”
Specifically,
“In the scenario where the U.K. and the EU fail to strike a trade deal and fall back on World Trade Organization rules, the study predicts the U.K. economy would lose 1.7 percent of economic output over the long-term, while German and EU GDP would be 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent below their previous pre-Brexit trajectories, respectively.”
This is the letter as it has appeared:
“In a recent letter I offered to provide your correspondent Bruce Adams with references to studies which suggest that the UK government is grossly exaggerating the economic impact of defaulting to WTO terms for future trade with the EU (Viewpoint January 3).
And I highlighted a study commissioned by the German government which estimated that over the long term a “no deal” scenario could erode UK economic growth by 1.7 per cent of GDP, a fraction of the losses predicted by the UK government.
So when Mr Adams replies to that polite offer by accusing me of peddling “fake news”
(Viewpoint January 10) I presume that his condemnation extends to the German government, and to the German economic institute which carried out that study.
And perhaps also to authors at the London School of Economics who estimated an average 2.2 per cent loss, and analysts at Open Europe who came up with a similar number, plus those who carried out a study for Policy Exchange and whose estimate was also around that same level.
All of which makes sense given that in 2012 Michel Barnier, now the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, issued a report estimating that the creation of the EU Single Market had added a paltry 2.1 per cent to the collective GDP of the member states.
While the German Bertelsmann institute agreed with that as the average across the EU, but said that the benefit for the UK was only half that average at about one per cent of GDP.
If we have gained anything from the present EU arrangement then it has been very little, so why does Mr Adams suppose we will lose many times that putative small gain when we leave?”
The evidence is there on the internet but it can take time to dig it out, and for Remoaners it is a much quicker process to just ignore it and make stuff up as they please.
January 18, 2019
JR
None of the above. The Germans are mostly indifferent to whether we stay or go although many of our German friends tend to regard our membership as a nuisance.
Johnny-come latelies who tried to take over the organisation not for the wellbeing of all the other members but for purely selfish advantages
January 18, 2019
It is our decision.
Germany have their own decisions to make.
January 18, 2019
Margaret Howard, Our ÂŁ10bn to ÂŁ12bn every year certainly improves “the well-being of all the other members”, though, wouldn’t you agree?
January 19, 2019
margaret howard
The Germans are mostly indifferent to whether we stay or go
You sure about that? The Germans I speak to most certainly aren’t indifferent they’re terrified. They see their markets getting hit , increased competition and a potential impact that could bring the whole EU down
You need to escape your bubble
January 18, 2019
I’ve just been listening to someone reading out a letter from the Germans saying how they will miss us. Yes, our money as you say John. My heart bleeds for them. I am sure they will get on fine without us and if not then they will have to find their money elsewhere for their project.
January 18, 2019
Mr Redwood,
A long time ago I discovered that extolling the benefits of EU membership (many imo) to your reguklar audience here is as pointless as reading from the Bible in a mosque. Good message, wrong audience and of course veryone is entitled to his own opinion. My objective is simply to respond to untruths, fallacies and remarks that are againts mainstream economic opinion, in which cases I am guilty of lecturing too much.
Fair enough. But your characterisation of German motives re the UK staying in or leaving is only partially correct: of course they would like a large, self financing, even surplus member to stay in and they like the access to the UK market. Likewise, UK industry almost unanimously wants the UK to stay at least in the single market and customs union. That is a matter of economic self interest.
As someone who spends a lot of time in Germany, speaks the language reasonably well and reads German media regularly, I fail to see how you get from there to the final paragraph:
“UK looking stupid in the eyes of the rest of the world as we dithered and then climbed down over our future, saying we cannot manage to be independent and govern ourselves”
UK independence ended on 12 August 1942. Germany carried on a little longer, wastefully and most OECD countries are now formally or informally allied to the US, the only independent Western state. (who would like to be a client of China or Russia and even the “independence” of those countries is questionable because the US can (and would) defeat both in the same war, making them useless patrons). So independence is not a word that continentals use generally (a few French charlatans excluded) and no one would think losing one’s self-imagined independence “foolish”. The most foolish thing that the UK presents to the outside world and former friends is the spectacle of completely chaotic politics. The suggestion that German politicians are sincere in stating that the UK should remain an EU member in some emotional frame is absurd. They would like to keep enjoying the economic benefits, not the company and do consider unnecessary self-harrm intriguing.
Reply What a pessimistic and misleading view
January 18, 2019
Rien, You cannot list the specific benefits(**) of the EU because there aren’t any. (**) Benefits as in something we cannot do for ourselves, or which isn’t worth the cost or isn’t worth the loss of independence.
January 18, 2019
Rien, as an interpretation of what happened in WW2, your interpretation takes some beating! “Germany carried on a little longer, wastefully”…..I’m sure those who suffered the Siege of Stalingrad, for example, would raise at least one eyebrow.
It’s also perhaps worth noting that making diplomatic alliances is totally different to becoming part of a Federal Union. But I’m sure you know that already.
January 19, 2019
@ sm
Absolutely. Re Germany I meant that carrying on (even before Stalingrad) after say not being able to deliver a knockout blow to the USSR, the Germans should have consolidated their WEur empire, not follow their iffy ally Japan in her crazy adventure in the Pacific and not given the US an excuse to enter the European war formally. But fortunately they had a useless government, headed up by a gifted fool and kept driving into the brick wall called Russia. And that is wasteful. However my experience with Germans socially, businesswise and academically, is that that lesson was not wasted.
January 19, 2019
Reply to reply
“What a pessimistic and misleading view”
No it is neither. Like Rien I too read the German press and rather than calling him pessimistic he is stating the obvious truth:
To put it bluntly- They think we are nuts
January 19, 2019
margaret howard
“they think we are nuts” Even if that was true so what? The Germans live in a time warp. They have developed nothing new in the last 25 years , they have no significant presence in any new area of economic activity .
They are trying desperately to hang on in a world thats changing fast
Those of us that innovate, create change, and invent the future are always called nuts by the timorous, dinosaurs scaredy cats . Read some history to see what happens to EVERY empire ( yes including the British empire) eventually. Inertia then collapse.
We are doing the French and Germans a favour by leaving
January 20, 2019
libertarian
“Those of us that innovate, create change, and invent the future are always called nuts by the timorous, dinosaurs scaredy cats ”
So what exactly have we ‘innovated’ in the last 25 years that leaves the Germans in the shade? And if that is so why aren’t we the largest economy in Europe instead of them?
As far as I can see it’s the Americans who are at the forefront of innovation not us.
January 21, 2019
margaret, this is an interesting question and how poor of the British establishment and institutions not to inform people of the great British innovations over the past twenty-five, fifty and 100 years.
We raise millions and millions for Cancer research in the UK, have they not made any innovations in this time? Oxford and Cambridge and all of the major redbrick research universities are given millions and millions in research grants and supported tuition fees does this lead to no important groundbreaking British innovation?
When I read your comment the immediate British inventor at the forefront of my mind was James Dyson, his bagless, and now super cordless vacuum cleaners revolutionised home cleaning.
But now I’m wondering are you correct, have we been falling backwards even though we’re educating nearly half the population in Higher degree level every year is this all coming to nought?
Come on British design institutions, do your job and tell us what has been going on since 1993, what great British innovations have there been or has it all been a waste of money and effort?
January 19, 2019
Margaret Howard, Does it matter what they think?
January 19, 2019
“The US can and would defeat both(Russia and China) in the same war”
That’s not what the military think tanks are saying.To control the world you have to control Eurasia and Eurasia is controlled by Russia and China-taking a war to them,you would lose.
The USA,like the British Empire before it,has failed to achieve control of the key territory and power is moving from sea to land as that vast tract of territory integrates-food production,energy supply,logistics,financial institutions,fresh water,etc
January 19, 2019
@ Michel
Wanna bet?
January 19, 2019
Reply to reply
Mr Redwood, what is pessimistic about being an ally (be it in a junior partner role) of the US and not being “independent” I thought Mr Eden was the last UK politician with issusions about greatness.
January 18, 2019
When the Major was seeking help to keep the Pound in the ERM the Germans told him to naff off (thank goodness). When Cameron was seeking help on immigration Merkel told him to naff off. So the Germans have made more than a little contribution to our Brexit. Now the Germans are looking at increased contributions to the EU budget they want us to stay and help them pay it. I think I know what the response should be.
January 18, 2019
This from the Daily Telegraph Businees pages under heading “German industry ‘looking into the abyss’ as Brexit fears mount” – ‘Gabriel Felbermayer, the IFO’s trade expert, said he had some sympathy with British MPs who spurned Theresa May’s deal. “Rejection of the separation agreement is perfectly understandable because it would downgrade Britain to the status of a trade colony. It would not stand to gain trade autonomy and its territorial integrity would be called into question,” he said.’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/01/17/german-industry-looking-abyss-brexit-fears-mount/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_em
January 18, 2019
All correct JR, so the question now is: As an MP, what are you doing to prevent it happening?
January 19, 2019
Hmmm. No reply.
So nothing then.
January 18, 2019
As was the norm, Germany is continuing to do damage to European Countries and their people. There can be no doubt that Germany holds the power in the EU and controls the Euro currency – the cause of massive job losses in the Souther States..
January 19, 2019
Won’t be long now before you blame Germany for the Brexit debacle. You’ve blamed just about everybody and everything else.
January 19, 2019
Margaret Howard, No, I think the blame has been fairly apportioned on here between an incompetent and devious UK Remain establishment on the one hand, and the corrupt, hostile, intransigent EU on the other. Although I have to say that Remain in the UK has been disproportionately silly, hostile, and antidemocratic. Still, like master like serf, eh?
January 19, 2019
And incidentally, until the 20th century Germany was the ONLY European country Britain had NEVER been at war with. Just the opposite, our royal family comes from Hanover.
January 19, 2019
MH
Germany wasn’t even a single country until the late 19th century ( 1871) so it only took 45 years before they had a war with us.
January 19, 2019
libertarian
Neither was England a united UK until the Act of Union in the 18th century. What has that got to do with anything?
January 19, 2019
What’s that got to do with it?Britain didn’t exist until the union with Scotland in the 18th century.
And we declared on them – twice.
January 18, 2019
Now why would any country want to pay to join the EU, given the facts issued by their own website? In 2016 23.5% of the EU population were at risk of poverty or social exclusion.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/People_at_risk_of_poverty_or_social_exclusion
A damning self-condemnation of their profligacy with other peoples money. At least someone within the Brussels machine is being transparent.
January 18, 2019
Treachery on an epic scale, and because it is done by the Establishment in such a blatant
way, on the Television, BBC and other Establishment news vehicles, part financed by theEU
To see these dissgracefull people committing us to ever deeper enslavment to the EU.
Bring on the election, let us get rid of this dissgrace once and for all, they are unable to clean there own cage, I am talking about all three parties, we have never slipped so low, I sincerely trust non of the Remoaners in those parties will be seen for thirty years, perhaps long prison sentences so they can reflect on there Treachery.
WTO NOW, let’s just get the hell on with it BORIS , good luck !
January 18, 2019
Of course Germany wants us to stay in. The absence of the UK in the EU will significantly change the balance of power in the European Council and the Council of Ministers, especially when regarding the Qualified Majority Voting procedure (QMV). The blocking minority has to consist of at least four member states representing 35% of the EU population. This kind of minority can normally only be achieved with the inclusion of one or two of the four biggest Member States. France is often allied with Italy and Spain, leaving Germany in a weakened position. There will be two power groupings, a Franco-German axis and a France, Italy, Spain alliance. As France is in both groups this gives them much more control. Both France and Italy will be pleased if the UK loses its right to vote. So leaving on WTO rules or even better with the Withdrawal Agreement suites them. More vetoes are set to go with more QMV coming in so look forward to a power struggle taking place in the near future.
January 18, 2019
What a bizarre and bitter post.
There’s nothing wrong with Germany wanting us to Remain in the EU if that’s what they think is in their own and whatever other interest they are pursuing.
It’s a shame that we don’t pursue our own interests with the same skill that Germany does its’ own.
The decision as to whether we want to Remain is entirely our own. Germany’s done nothing whatsoever to try to force us to Remain.
The public voted to Leave, and so did Parliament. So, as things stand we are Leaving.
The chances are however, that the Government in which less than 48 hours ago John Redwood voted to express confidence, will apply to extend our membership or opt to Remain in permanently.
But that’s not Germany’s decision. If the UK looks stupid in the world that’s entirely the fault of the Government and the House of Commons.
January 18, 2019
Baz Lloyd said: “It’s a shame that we don’t pursue our own interests with the same skill that Germany does its’ own.”
Indeed. If we had we would have been independent from 24 June 2017 after giving the EU a generous 12 months notice. But we didn’t and that’s treacherous establishment Remains for you.
January 18, 2019
Yeah they want the UK to stay in the EU but not at any cost
They think it’s better we are in a norway style deal that way we’ll be at arms length
They quietly think we are too much trouble..so what they might say is really only window dressing
January 18, 2019
“It’s not the EU its Vardkar,” says Lord Lamont. Well if so then the British public needs to do something about using our buying power to stop this man posturing and causing no deal. His Country didn’t expect a punishment or indeed any changes to cause Ireland problems when they exited from the United Kingdom. In fact, it amazes me they were allowed to keep ALL the benefits of being a member of the UK as an independent Ireland, they can vote in UK elections and actually had a say in Brexit, and we were expected to pay up and bail them out even though we were not a Euro member. Ireland expect it all ways up, they want protection but won’t pay into NATO, they want to be an EU member but won’t charge the correct taxes and get away with it. Enough is enough.
January 19, 2019
So blame the Irish again- because if it’s not the Irish then it’s the French. So then better have a good look at yourself in the mirror and say, Yes, I believe everything Lords Lamont and Lawson tell me, I believe everything Boris with his ‘tiger in the tank’ tells me, or DD who tells me that the EU will buckle at the very last moment and give us everything we want. And what do we want? we want free trade with them where we set the rules and they are the rule takers. We want to keep all of our red lines in place pay nothing and sell them goods and services as we wish when we wish and if that does not work out? then it is the fault of the Irish.
January 19, 2019
Hardlyever, What, we shouldn’t blame Eire for what they do (and don’t do), simply because they’re Irish? Give me a break.
January 21, 2019
Hardlyever, what did Lord Lamont say that wasn’t true? I don’t believe everything I read which is why I question things and read various publications and political blogs.
When you say what do we want? Who is we? Are you British – who are you talking for? and who are you making assumptions on behalf of?
As you know lots about Ireland what did they give up to leave the United Kingdom and self-rule? What part of what I said is untrue I’m happy to check up on your correction.
January 18, 2019
https://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/frederick-forsyth/1074254/brexit-news-theresa-may-uk-usa-special-relationship-government
Rather important I think.
That bloody awkward woman.
January 18, 2019
And Russia want us to leave.
Of course, our Russian enemies may have our best interests and heart, and our German friends may not.
Life is not a zero sum game and most of find cooperation is better than confrontation.
January 19, 2019
This is a nasty vindictive sounding blog.
Just as anyone outside Scotland were entitled to advise Scotland not to Leave the UK, German businesses and any one else in the World perfectly entitled to say what they think is best for them, and, if they wish. try to persuade us.
But it’s up to our Government and our SOVEREIGN Crown in Parliament to decide.
January 19, 2019
Read the leaflet
“This is your decision We will implement what you decide”
We voted to leave the EU.