The pound rises against the Euro and dollar

Good silence from the anti Brexit commentators over recent rises in the pound as we get closer to the date to leave the EU.

They are none too noisy about the latest IMF forecast either where the IMF  think the UK will grow faster than Germany this year.

That’s the magic of Brexit!

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  1. ALC
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 11:00 am | Permalink

    I would be careful of the interpreting the Forex markets as an oracle of common sense, around big news events I have witnessed what I believe to be clear evidence the banks can force huge movements in price and make things go the opposite way that expected.

    • Merlin
      Posted January 23, 2019 at 11:48 am | Permalink

      Sir John, I have a quick and sincere question.

      When we leave the E.U, I’m curious to know which metrics you think we should use to judge the success or failure of Brexit, and over what time frame?

      Could be popular support, G.D.P, I’m not sure.

      • David Price
        Posted January 24, 2019 at 6:38 am | Permalink

        What metrics have been used to judge our success or failure from EU membership? None were offered in 1975.

        Some success criteria that spring to mind;
        – Removal of increasing amount of unnecessary or unwelcome EU legislation off our statute books.
        – Zero people transferred to EU on the basis of the EAW and withdrawal from EAW
        – Reduction in tonnage of fish taken from UK waters by EU vessels
        – Re-establishment of UK focused diplomatic and trade operations throughout the word
        – Agreements where necessary with key trading partners
        – Managed immigration applied to all applicants equally based on our needs
        – Significant reduction in EU imports, increase in local production and ROW trade
        – No military commitments to EU

        • Merlin
          Posted January 24, 2019 at 7:41 am | Permalink

          Great question David.

          What metrics would you have included to measure E.U membership? It’s a big question and one we need to answer.

          I think G.D.P and public support have to be part of it. If G.D.P dropped by 10% and 60% of the public felt Brexit had been a failure, I think it would be hard to call it a success? Likewise if G.D.P quickly rises by 10% and 60% says it has been a success, then I think it should be pronounced a good thing.
          I think using agreements with key trading partners would be a bad metric – as it would really put Brexit on the back foot. I think we need to be more positive.

          • David Price
            Posted January 24, 2019 at 1:24 pm | Permalink

            Offer whatever metrics you like against criteria, zero is a good target for reductions, but I believe GDP is a bad metric. People do not experience GDP directly and in any case I do not view our relationship with the EU as an economist/academic or institutional investor.

            I would class an increase our research and education collaborations with APAC and the Americas as a success, no doubt they will reduce with the EU.

            I would class reduced pressure on housing, transport, infrastructure, education and health services a success. Use appropriate metrics – waiting times, cost, whatever.

            I could eat the same amount of fish but it is important to me that the fish has been caught and landed by a British boat rather than a French, Spanish or Dutch vessel. The benefit to our people and the control we have over our affairs is what is important. A metric from that? – zero fish taken from our waters that should be caught by UK vessels.

        • hefner
          Posted January 24, 2019 at 9:52 am | Permalink

          And in quantitative terms (as the use of the word “metrics” would imply)?

          • David Price
            Posted January 24, 2019 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

            I used the word critera to categorise measures, I specifically avoided the term metrics as I would prefer to see consideration and debate on actual targets and plans and exit criteria.

            I’d be happy to give arbitrary guesses on quantities but the key thing for me is for politicians and government to be clearly incorporating success and exit criteria and specific targets in it’s dealings.

            The UK relationship with the EU has foundered because the public were not signed up to tangible goals which gave us mutual benefits of real value and things just drifted along for 40 years.

    • Dennis
      Posted January 23, 2019 at 3:04 pm | Permalink

      Whatever the cause, remainers remain quiet about positive moves in the economy. That’s the point!

  2. hans christian ivers
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 11:07 am | Permalink

    Sir JR,

    According to the FT the rise in the Pound is due to the expectation that we will make a del with the EU or have a second referendum, so there are obviously different views on the reasons for the rise in the value of the Pound

    • libertarian
      Posted January 23, 2019 at 1:31 pm | Permalink


      That is not how fx markets work. the FT should know better

    • Adam
      Posted January 23, 2019 at 2:27 pm | Permalink

      Del would have secured better terms with the EU than Theresa May. Living in a tower block enables a better perspective of UK values than FT commentators trying to perceive what the majority of our folk assess as worth paying for.

    • John Probert
      Posted January 23, 2019 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

      Yes I read the FT, but I am not sure why

      Unfortunately the reporting is very unbalanced

    • roger
      Posted January 23, 2019 at 4:33 pm | Permalink

      The FT is not a dispassionate observer and over two and a half years has invested much skin in the game.
      Like almost all of the MSM they have published fake news throughout the Brexit process and in so doing weakened their authority across the board.
      So sad!

    • Caterpillar
      Posted January 23, 2019 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

      I have also heard that the rise in GBP is pricing in the probability of Remain, or Customs Union, neither of which is Brexit.

    • David Price
      Posted January 24, 2019 at 6:40 am | Permalink

      I stopped using the FT for information and opinion on investment many years ago, the internet offers access to a much wider set of sources and opinions.

  3. Anonymous
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 11:08 am | Permalink

    Off topic.

    Clair Balding recently “We should have a second referendum. In real life there is a court of appeal.”

    I answer this and all those who say Brexit voters are dying so should be ignored:

    – The 2016 referendum WAS our court of appeal. 40 years after the first hearing.

    – Most Remain voters of 1975 are dead. A lot of them didn’t have to live through its consequences. I was a teenager and didn’t get a vote then. Now I am told I am too old for my vote to count now.

    Let’s go back to 1975 “What do we want ? Our population replaced. When do we want it ? NOW”

    I was there. I do not recall it.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted January 23, 2019 at 12:41 pm | Permalink

      We could indeed have another referendum on EU membership; but only after the outcome of the June 2016 referendum has been implemented by the government, AS PROMISED, and then there has been a decent period for the dust to settle, say a decade or two. And I am being generous there, I could have said we should wait another forty years, like last time after the 1975 referendum, even though at the time there had been a rumour that if we voted to stay in we might be asked again in a few years. There could be a second referendum on Scottish independence, as well, if enough Scots still wanted it after there had been a reasonable interval to show up the SNP predictions of catastrophe as just worthless as the similar predictions from eurofanatics in the other parts of the UK.

  4. TomTomTom
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 11:18 am | Permalink

    The extreme-remain grouping of MPs seems to have the upper hand at the moment.

    I don’t see how the Leavers are going to navigate the last few ( please God, no more ) weeks of BREXIT.

    What’s the plan?

    • Stephen Priest
      Posted January 23, 2019 at 12:00 pm | Permalink

      He sounds confident. The plan is Leave. I hope his confidence proves justified.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted January 23, 2019 at 1:02 pm | Permalink

      The plan is for Downing Street to continue with its established strategy of covertly pumping out and encouraging doomladen forecasts and never rebutting any of the nonsense which it has helped to put into circulation.

      Even when David Davis was the Brexit secretary there were virtually no attempts to defend official government policy from constant attack.

      This is from August 2017:

      “Off-topic, JR, I’ve finally come to the end of my patience with David Davis and his now massive department and so I’ve have just send this email to the so-called “media unit”, copied to him and to the “correspondence unit” in the Cabinet Office:

      “Hello, anybody at home?”

      “Day after day, week after week, I see pro-EU, anti-Brexit propaganda flooding into the mass media, but I never see any response from you lot.

      This morning the BBC had that old euromaniac Peter Hain on its breakfast “news” spouting rubbish about Ireland, and did they also have somebody from your department there to rebut what he was saying? Of course not, there never is.

      It is official government policy that the UK shall leave the EU, and leave the EU Customs Union, and leave the EU Single Market, so why as a media office are you not actively, publicly, defending that government policy at every turn?”

      Well, of course some would question whether any of that really is the official government policy or it is just a pretence to string the voters along, and that is why they are happy to stand by and hopefully see public support for Brexit fading away.””

      The only time the government briefly came alive to actively rebut criticisms of its official policy was when Theresa May was first trying to persuade people to accept her deal and a blog was started:

      “This blog will set out facts relating to the Brexit agreement the government has reached with the European Union. It will offer rebuttal to criticisms and inaccurate reporting in the lead up to Parliament’s meaningful vote on the deal.”

      In total there were just seven attempts at rebuttal, the first on November 23rd and the last on December 6th, and no comments were permitted.

    • John Hatfield
      Posted January 23, 2019 at 2:30 pm | Permalink

      Leavers plan is to leave. For details see the Prime Minister.

    • Adam
      Posted January 23, 2019 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

      What seems differs from what is.
      The plan is to Leave on 29 Mar & regain UK freedom.

  5. eeyore
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 11:22 am | Permalink

    Isn’t the problem now the ignorance of many MPs about WTO? Hundreds seem think hysterical repetition of “cliff edge”, “catastrophe” and “national suicide” is an adequate substitute for thought and knowledge.

    They are in a position to cause real damage to Britain’s negotiating position, let alone to the jobs and welfare of millions. May we hope that Members who know better, like our host, will continue to make every effort to lighten their colleagues’ darkness?

    • Lifelogic
      Posted January 23, 2019 at 12:44 pm | Permalink

      Indeed the BBC/CBI and BBC “experts” are appallingly biased against a real Brexit. We will be far better of out with a clean Brexit, agreements as needed forged later and no fee.

      Newsnight again pushing climate alarmism yesterday. Two complete alarmists on and no sensible climate realists to point out reality to them.

    • margaret howard
      Posted January 23, 2019 at 1:18 pm | Permalink

      What thought and knowledge do you profess to have which ‘hundreds of MPs’ lack?

      • David Price
        Posted January 24, 2019 at 7:49 am | Permalink

        @m howard – The pro-EU MPOs do seem to lack knowledge about the intentions the EU elite have for our future otherwise surely they would have been selling it to us.

        Instead of describing this bright new future with wonders for us all they and their helpers have kept schtum, slandered and threatened everyone who disagrees with them.

        Very odd behaviour.

        • margaret howard
          Posted January 24, 2019 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

          David, what is it Remainers are supposed have done that Brexiteers haven’t?

          • David Price
            Posted January 24, 2019 at 7:19 pm | Permalink

            For one thing the remainer MPs should have been clear and honest about their intentions and plans before being elected. But then many of them probably wouldn’t have been elected ..

      • libertarian
        Posted January 24, 2019 at 9:10 am | Permalink

        margaret howard

        Oh I like the easy questions

        Knowledge and experience of business

        Selling things internationally

        understanding of new digital technology

        strategic planning and foresight

        employees who tell me how they feel about things etc etc

        This makes me laugh so much, no wonder you are duped by the EU

        MP’s are just a bunch of people who got selected to represent an area they usually have no connection with by one of two political parties. They are NOT selected based on any expertise, experience, qualifications or ability

        Then you want them to run your life…. sad

        • Rien Huizer
          Posted January 24, 2019 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

          @ Libertarian

          Intersting comment. Looks like you do not think parliamentarians should be doing what they do. You generalize about an essential component of democracy: representatives. The ARE selected by their constituents (whom you may not respect either) and on what basis is immaterial. I strongly disagree with them not being connected to one of the political parties. What you say may be true for parts of the US, but much less so the UK. Of course in virtual two party systems, parties tend to have diverse opinions. Politics positioning is multidimensional. And even wrt the narrow topic of brexit, there are several dimensions of preferences. People occupy positions on scales like the intensity of future trade with the UK, more or less protection for workers, future economic orientation, customer protection, etc. All one can say is that the divisions in the Conservative party are mor transparent than those in the Labour party. But there is a fair degree of party discipline on other topics and of course, if (a) SF would take up their seats (quite a few people wish them to simply perforn the ritual and do what they were elected for and (b) the process of brexit would deteriorate into a fresh election (which SF could help to occur), I am sure party discipline would look pretty strong again.

    • David Price
      Posted January 24, 2019 at 7:39 am | Permalink

      Fully agree. Just as telling as the apparent ignorance of a WTO based approach is the apparent ignorance of EU intentions for the future.

      If the EU were such a haven one would expect the euphilics in the house and media to be extolling the virtues of increasing numbers of taxes under EU direct control for their own income, full control of borders and immigration, bringing our armed forces under EU control along with all diplomatic activity alongside their control of trade today.

      Then there is control of the EU wide energy infrastructure, industrial policy and programmes on vehicles and digitisation, including centralised tax and pricing on the latter.

      They also want to reduce the number of commissioners (to 15?), so bearing in mind who initiates the laws, which countries are going to lose out? Perhaps those who don’t acquiesce and are viewed as troublesome …

      See “Future of Europe”.

  6. Peter Wood
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 11:37 am | Permalink

    Sir John,

    The markets thinks we’re staying in! Status quo means stability and known circumstances. You Brave Brexiteers better get your jogging pants on, or we’ll be stuck in EU servitude for ever and a day.

    Reply I think the markets responded favourably to good economic news on jobs and pay

    • Den
      Posted January 23, 2019 at 12:39 pm | Permalink

      I think the global markets are more motivated by World events rather that by the vanity of the Brussels cabal. It will be interesting to see what these Markets make of the proposed new European Army controlled by Nations whose former Dictators tried to take over Europe by force, if it ever becomes established.

      • margaret howard
        Posted January 24, 2019 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

        Den as a nation who took over a quarter of the globe we are hardly fit to lecture other countries on past misdeeds.

        It always surprises me that Brexiteers are so vehemently against a European army but never minded being used by the US army as a poodle following them into illegal wars like Iraq which has destabilised the whole Middle East and flooded Europe with millions of terrified refugees.

        • Edward2
          Posted January 24, 2019 at 7:08 pm | Permalink

          So yoi hate the British Empire yet you like the rise of a new empire the United State of Europe.
          Very odd logic

          • Den
            Posted January 25, 2019 at 12:58 pm | Permalink

            There’s none so blind as those who WILL NOT see.

    • Christine
      Posted January 23, 2019 at 2:38 pm | Permalink

      People need to understand that staying in isn’t the status quo. Big changes are being put through. Loss of our veto on tax policy. EU army. Takeover of our foreign policy. Removal of rebates. Some may fear leaving the EU but those of us who study it are terrified of staying in.

      • David Price
        Posted January 24, 2019 at 7:13 am | Permalink

        Fully agree. The issue is not just the veto on tax policy, the EU are also intending to bypass national governments on tax receipts, planning for taxes to go direct to itself – including digital tax, green tax, financial transfer tax, common consolidated corporate tax.

        • Christine
          Posted January 24, 2019 at 11:51 am | Permalink

          What worries me is that our politicians seem completely oblivious to what is going on in the EU. There seems to be a complete disconnect between MEPs and MPs. I wrote to all my MEPs last week expressing my concern about how we were to become just a tax collecting state of the EU, with little say over our tax rates and how the money is spent. For a Government to lose control of its main revenue makes it impotent with little more power than a county council.

          • David Price
            Posted January 24, 2019 at 1:53 pm | Permalink

            I believe it is Kenneth Clarke’s stated goal for HMG to become just that, a county council. Clearly he is not the only politician with this goal in mind.

            With some notable exceptions our politicians appear mostly useless, disloyal and completely disconnected from our concerns and interests. As an example I received this email from Brandon Lewis (Conservative party chairman) yesterday;

            I hope you got my email on Sunday.

            Since then Jeremy Corbyn has put forward an amendment in Parliament that paves the way for a second EU referendum.

            They simply can’t be trusted to keep any promise they make to respect the result of the referendum.

            Are Corbyn and Labour now trying to block Brexit?

            Don’t agree with Labour? Then we need your help, please share this news today.

            The emphasis is mine. This arrogant rubbish, all the stalling and spoiling actions going on and slander of reasonable people who happen not to agree with the euphilcs do not make me despair. Instead they just make me angry and determined to not give in.

            Currently I channel this into groups who have more influence than I do like Facts4eu.

    • L Jones
      Posted January 23, 2019 at 7:47 pm | Permalink

      Since when was there EVER a ”status quo” where the EU was concerned?

  7. margaret howard
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 11:46 am | Permalink

    Clutching at straws? The pound has dropped by over 15% since Brexit.

    • Edward2
      Posted January 24, 2019 at 12:06 am | Permalink

      The pound has risen to over 1.70 and dropped to nearly 1.00 against the euro whilst we were a member.
      Please explain why this happened Margaret

      • acorn
        Posted January 24, 2019 at 9:03 am | Permalink

        The UK Current Account has been trending increasingly negative since 1984. The currency will gradually depreciate to try and reduce the trade deficit initially.

        • Edward2
          Posted January 24, 2019 at 1:08 pm | Permalink

          Exchange rates have been volatile in both directions since 1984.
          Every time there is a fall, margaret says brexit is to blame.
          But whilst in the EU rates have altered considerably.
          Apparently all these movements had nothing to do with the EU

      • margaret howard
        Posted January 24, 2019 at 10:44 am | Permalink


        “Please explain why this happened Margaret”

        Wouldn’t have happened if we had joined the euro which has successfully replaced the pound as the world’s largest reserve currency after the US$

        • David Price
          Posted January 24, 2019 at 1:57 pm | Permalink

          If we had joined the euro we would have had a whole different set of problems and far fewer ways to address them.

          Clearly you hate this country and the people in it despite none of us having been actively involved, even alive, in so many of your ‘nasty country’ examples.

          Perhaps you would be happier in a more perfect country.

        • Edward2
          Posted January 24, 2019 at 3:37 pm | Permalink

          That is an answer to a different question.

    • Know-Dice
      Posted January 24, 2019 at 8:38 am | Permalink

      And that helps UK exporters & tourists visiting this country – swings & roundabouts…

  8. formula57
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 11:48 am | Permalink

    Nice! Although let us spare a thought for those Remoaners who will find only disappointment and concern in this and all like pleasing news.

    So many have been turned mad by Brexit, including some who post comments here, and whilst the Quislings will be ready with yet another distraction for them, the amount of good news flowing from Brexit cannot do other than depress them more. One would have to have a heart of stone not to laugh though.

  9. Bryan Harris
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 11:55 am | Permalink

    “That’s the magic of Brexit!”

    Does that mean that when we leave – cleanly – that all of this chatter, noise, and hatred from the afflicted remainers will just go away, and all will be quiet… Nice idea

  10. Dominic
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 12:20 pm | Permalink

    The UK is NOT leaving the EU any time soon

    I have always believed that the only way to guarantee Brexit is to bring down May and her Remain government. If Tory Brexiteers refuse this strategy then you and we can wave goodbye to a sovereign, independent United Kingdom

    It truly is PARTY V COUNTRY. There is no in-between

    • Rien Huizer
      Posted January 24, 2019 at 9:42 pm | Permalink


      If you want to live in a “sovereign, independent” country you should move to the US. If you can afford it..

      • Edward2
        Posted January 25, 2019 at 7:27 am | Permalink

        Or any of the 100 plus other independent countries.

  11. Den
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 12:34 pm | Permalink

    Of course any fluctuation in the value of our Pound is more to do with Market Forces rather than Opinion polls and Scare stories. However, it proves the case that the Remainers will seize upon all the negatives but refuse to acknowledge the positives of Brexit.
    I would like to see them defend their stance that we Leavers ‘got it wrong’ and only they know what is best for our country.
    Again their principles of exacerbating the negatives while obscuring the positives, take over. None of them explain what the Benefits to us Brits would be if we chose to Remain i n the EU only what horrors await us before and after we leave. Another ‘positive’ for us Leavers because there are no benefits for belonging to the EU so the dissenters remain silent.
    Why can’t they just respect democracy?

    • margaret howard
      Posted January 23, 2019 at 10:49 pm | Permalink


      “Why can’t they just respect democracy?”

      Because 17m people being able to decide the future of over 65m is NOT democracy especially as nearly as many voted against leaving.

      The whole system is rotten and will be challenged until it is changed. We can’t allow our young people having their future ruined by some mainly older reactionaries and Colonel Blimps.

      • David Price
        Posted January 24, 2019 at 7:51 am | Permalink

        @m Howard – Yet you think even fewer people in Brussels deciding our future is an acceptable form democracy?

        • margaret howard
          Posted January 24, 2019 at 5:11 pm | Permalink

          It wouldn’t be acceptable if they did – but they don’t.

          • Edward2
            Posted January 24, 2019 at 7:10 pm | Permalink

            The Commission and Council are the power in the EU
            No individual European voter gets a vote on who they are.

      • Edward2
        Posted January 24, 2019 at 8:08 am | Permalink

        Presumably you will also try to stop local council elections and general elections as there are rules on who can vote and way less than 100% of the eligible population bother to vote.

      • libertarian
        Posted January 24, 2019 at 9:13 am | Permalink

        margaret howard

        Yes it is democracy , that is how democracy works and you were perfectly happy with it working like that in 1975

        You’re happy to have a government that wasn’t elected by a single person though? What an odd person you are

        Good luck with your young people finding a job in the EU

        Meanwhile the young people that I know that have international aspirations are living and working all over the world

        • Rien Huizer
          Posted January 24, 2019 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

          @ Libertarian

          How can you suggest Margaret voted in 1975. AS lady’s age never goes over 28..

          • David Price
            Posted January 25, 2019 at 8:12 am | Permalink

            @ Huinzer – How do you know M Howard is female?

          • Rien Huizer
            Posted January 25, 2019 at 6:57 pm | Permalink

            @ David Price

            How many men would call themselves Margaret. And how many females would call themselves David…

      • Jagman84
        Posted January 24, 2019 at 9:36 am | Permalink

        You could say the exact same for a remain majority as well. Or doesn’t it work that way in your jaundiced world? There would not have been calls to respect the leave vote if remain had won. It’d have been full steam ahead for a federal ‘Europe’ with all the UK opt-outs wiped away.

  12. BR
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 1:31 pm | Permalink

    Before we gloat about the magic of Brexit, let’s make sure it’s happening.

    The bills and amendments by the traitors in parliament have to be dealt with to avoid them taking control.

    I assume there is a plan?

  13. a-tracy
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 3:29 pm | Permalink

    “Adding fuel to the move are signs that Brexit purists in the UK parliament are sensing the Brexit project might be scuppered as remain-favouring MPs establish a mechanism to wrest control of the Brexit process from the government and delay the UK’s exit from the EU, or overturn it altogether.” PSL

  14. Dylan
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

    If anyone’s interested in the Parliamentary mechanism by which Remainers will keep us in the EU indefinitely, Labour MP Yvette Cooper has tabled an amendment to the Government’s motion, that would give time for a bill to suspend the Article 50 process for leaving the EU, if a new deal has not been agreed with Brussels by the end of February.

    There’s a majority in the House for it, and it’s the only amendment that would be legally binding on the government.

    This might explain the panic that’s set in on the No Deal Leavers side.

    Jacob Rees Mogg has now suggested that he will vote for deal if the backstop is addressed. The EU has said that they will not address it.

    Rees Mogg now seems think that the only way to stop postponement of Leaving is for the government to “prorogue parliament ” – a procedure to shut down Parliament – to stop any backbench bills trying to delay Article 50 and, in turn, Brexit.

    It’s highly unlikely the government, will get away with that and it’s quite possible the Queen would refuse.

    John Redwood etc, have lost Brexit for us by their cack handed, obtuse, lack of tactical nous.

    • Edward2
      Posted January 24, 2019 at 8:11 am | Permalink

      The Withdrawal Agreement is remaining in the EU and is not a deal.

  15. Martin
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 5:42 pm | Permalink

    I note Dyson is moving to Singapore. It has a fantastic airport.

    Will you campaign for extra runways and terminals at Heathrow ( and elsewhere) to entice Dyson back from Singapore?

    • David Price
      Posted January 24, 2019 at 12:12 pm | Permalink

      I would rather he campaign for improvements in transport, energy, communications and educational infrastructure throughout the UK so we can do what we do well which is to innovate and make stuff. Anything to reduce the reliance on the Finance Sector and the millstone of short-termism.

      I would also like to see a significant reduction in the pressure to turn the country into a sea of residential estates with no facilities or resources for small businesses to be able to start-up, develop, to encourage and exploit local skills.

  16. Lynn Atkinson
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

    Brexiteer enthusiasts base their opinion on empirical fact. Remainers are all ‘heart and feelings’. We need to save them from themselves, and save ourselves too. After Maastricht the Tory Party did not win an election for a quarter of a century. If they fail to deliver Brexit as specified – out of the Single Market, Customs Union and ECJ – they will never win an election again!
    Strength to those brave Tory and Labour MPs fighting for our lives in the next couple of months.

    • margaret howard
      Posted January 23, 2019 at 11:00 pm | Permalink


      ” After Maastricht the Tory Party did not win an election for a quarter of a century”

      Oh really?

      John Major

      Prime Minister 1990-1997

      “Major became Prime Minister after Thatcher’s reluctant resignation in November 1990. He presided over British participation in the Gulf War in March 1991, and negotiated the Maastricht Treaty in December 1991. He went on to lead the Conservatives to a record fourth consecutive electoral victory”

  17. mancunius
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 5:53 pm | Permalink

    OECD’s head Jose Angel Gurria has pointed out that “A no-deal, WTO rules…the whole world is running by WTO rules these days.”

    Martin Sorrell (in Davos) called yesterday for a post-Brexit UK to model itself on low-tax, light-reg Singapore: “What you’ve got going on at the moment is European governments and Brussels looking at these tech giants with increasing intensity and thinking about regulation. So for us to lure them away may go against the grain but my view is the positioning of Britain post-Brexit has to be around making Britain a really open-for-business country.
    “So light tax, and light regulation is really important.”

    Presumably the reason he currently supports a second referendum and remaining in the EU is that he fears that the current fearful and unimaginative Chancellor and Cabinet are incapable of making such radical changes. I would certainly agree with him on that.

    • Rien Huizer
      Posted January 24, 2019 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

      @ Mancunius

      You are confusing rules and preferences.

  18. William
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

    Dr. Redwood, would you, like other ERG members seem to be doing, consider voting for the deal if the backstop is removed/time-limited? I know that they are doing this out of fear of Brexit being cancelled by other MPs, but I would put forward that if May’s deal goes through, Brexit will be a disaster and we will end up going back in anyway. Personally I voted to leave but I would prefer Remain (or ‘no deal’) to this deal because I just want what I think is best for the UK.

    Reply No.i have made clear my disagreements with the WA as have many other ERG members who would not support it minus the backstop.

  19. agricola
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 6:38 pm | Permalink

    The significance is that remain stay silent when it contradicts their argument. If it continues in it’s present direction,how long before the CBI complain that it is making their exports uncompetitive.
    Having said all that it still remains a casino and open to manipulation to ensure it’s profitability. They have been caught doing it before so I would not put it beyond possibility that they have found more subtle ways of achieving their ends.

  20. Lookalike
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 6:53 pm | Permalink

    And yes industry and banking financials etc is quietly decamping..equity share value is way down..and all of the great employment news we hear of has a lot more to do with zero contract hours in its race to the bottom. You talk things up too early John, lets wait to see what public sentiment will be in say 66 days time..only 66 days days to go, not too long to hold yer whist

  21. Margam
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 7:26 pm | Permalink

    Toyota us leaving, PAndO is leaving, all the banks ate leaving. Hurray for brexit

    • Peter Moore
      Posted January 24, 2019 at 4:51 am | Permalink

      No they’re not. Why would they? With the GBP savagely depressed by the deliberate uncertainty caused by the incompetence of May’s Brexit negotiations [grovelling] these two exporting companies have much to gain from staying in UK.

      Much is being attempted with the non-story that P & O is flagging out to Cyprus. Those outside the shipping industry & many within have no idea how little this means. It is not like re-locating a car factory to Slovakia. In commerce & employment it does not have to change a thing; it just weaves past a few regulations.

  22. Dominic
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 7:38 pm | Permalink

    Will Yvette Cooper’s appalling behaviour in Parliament imprison us?

    When will these grubby Europhile MPs be exposed for their anti-democratic actions?

  23. Everhopeful
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 8:25 pm | Permalink

    Supercharged gloom from Project Fear means that British Companies and pound sterling are now significantly undervalued. ( Talking the country down ).
    An “orderly” Brexit, according to Lloyd’s Bank analysts, will lead to the pound rising by more than 5% against the dollar in 2019.
    Well, well!

    • margaret howard
      Posted January 23, 2019 at 11:07 pm | Permalink


      “will lead to the pound rising by more than 5% against the dollar in 2019.”

      After dropping by 16% first since Brexit?

  24. Steve
    Posted January 23, 2019 at 9:05 pm | Permalink

    I’m not an expert on stock markets and the like, so cannot comment.

    However, off topic;

    Saw on the news this morning that we leavers are now being labelled extreme far right terrorists.

    It’s the terrorist bit I find offensive. Many of this country gave their lives in making a stand against domination by the continent.

    So is the PC pro-EU empire left wing now saying that those who made the supreme
    sacrifice to save the country from foreign domination were also terrorists ? I hope not.

    Clearly the remoaner snowflakes are now resorting to one of the left’s favourite tactics – namely abuse of the security laws to manipulate political outcome.

    Obviously time is not on their side, and they are getting desperate. What a sad bunch.

  25. wireworm
    Posted January 24, 2019 at 4:23 am | Permalink

    Have we all considered the law of unintended consequences? I refer to the indisputable fact that if we leave on less than amicable terms, it won’t be a simple matter of relying on WTO rules and goodwill. The Continentals would be able to fall back on an array of seriously prejudicial measures that could easily evade WTO radar. One recalls the French ploy of requiring imported video-recorders to pass through an office in Orleans. If the Germans applied themselves, no doubt the programme would be systematic and, dare one say, merciless, but with lashings of deniability. Do we really want to be the EU’s first enemy?

    • David Price
      Posted January 24, 2019 at 7:59 am | Permalink

      I suggest we take note of President Macron’s demand for the EU’s future trade approach – reciprocity and transparency.

      If the EU introduces unnecessary restrictions and practices we make this action and policy public, then reciprocate creatively. They export more to us than we to them.

    • libertarian
      Posted January 24, 2019 at 9:15 am | Permalink


      Er they’ve been doing that for the last 40 years, whats different?

    • Jagman84
      Posted January 24, 2019 at 9:41 am | Permalink

      Renaults & Peugeots imported via some obscure Scottish isle with 100% checks would sort out that silly nonsense. A boycott of their mushy fruit & veg ( as I have done for decades) would emphasise our displeasure.

  26. HenryS
    Posted January 24, 2019 at 8:25 am | Permalink

    This year 29th March falls on a Friday and as the money markets never close, soon after the crash 2300hrs we’ll see how they are likely to go- but it won’t really be until the stock markets start to open after the weekend that we’ll see the true picture of things to come- First of all markets in New Zealand will open Ist April then one by one around the world- all in time for Happy April fools day..or happy fools hour

  27. Rien Huizer
    Posted January 24, 2019 at 8:55 am | Permalink

    Mr Redwood,

    The IMF and the market assume non”no deal”. Simple explanation, no change in market sentiment after short term scare about no-deal. In fact the market is optimistic that politicians who project an uncompromising image will turn out to be politicians after all and not really keen on having their bluff called. I note that the Parliament includes several people with an investmentbanking or asset management background. Those people should be able to understand economic phenomena, at least intuitively.

  28. Tabulazero
    Posted January 24, 2019 at 1:15 pm | Permalink

    The pound is rising because the market believe that the probability of you and your lunatic Brexiter friends dragging the UK through a disastrous no-deal Brexit is diminishing by the minute as people become fully aware of what a no-deal exactly entail.

  29. David Price
    Posted January 24, 2019 at 2:01 pm | Permalink

    Slightly off topic, UnHerd is reporting that the first criminal trial of UK bank execs for misconduct during the financial crisis has begun at Southwark Crown Court.

    It’s only taken 10 years.

  • About John Redwood

    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

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