The pound rises to $1.30

We hear a no deal exit is still likely, with the UK rightly declining to make the unreasonable concessions the EU wants. All those Remain commentators need to explain the current strength of the pound against the world’s main reserve currency, as they are ever ready to blame Brexit when the dollar is strong.
Those who offer a sensible non Brexit reason for sterling being strong against the dollar need then to ask themselves why they always wrongly blame Brexit when the dollar is strong.

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241 Comments

  1. Richard1
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:03 am | Permalink

    Err…what’s happening is the dollar is falling due to turmoil in the US I’m not sure the pound counts as strong against a basket?!

    But it is of course right that having made the decision to leave the EU we do not now sign up to all the rules laws and costs of the EU as if we were still a member, otherwise we may as well never have left. Boris does seem to be taking a good robust approach.

    • Sir Joe Soap
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:44 am | Permalink

      Yes the £ would be stronger against the EUR too if we were more robust and didn’t have a government which looked weak, weedy and wishy washy.

    • Peter
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:54 am | Permalink

      There is a media story that no deal is likely.

      However, one deadline was allowed to slip.

      There is also talk of a deal that meets 60% of the UK requirements.

      So we shall see.

      Mr. Frost has done his part. It is up to Boris and co to fulfill their promises now.

    • Martin in Cardiff
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 9:52 am | Permalink

      Yes, the UK should never have left. Because it will end up agreeing to European Union standards, exactly as the Remain campaigns explained. There is no Third Way.

      However, Sterling could genuinely be strengthened – hugely – by implementing the policy of total eradication of covid 19, as outlined here by those at the top of the tree in our world-beating universities.

      https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/29/britain-ditches-overseas-travel-coronavirus-spanish-covid-19

      • NickC
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 3:24 pm | Permalink

        Actually we must Leave, Martin. You seem to have forgotten (it is a long time ago!) we had a national democratic vote, and decided to Leave. That is the legal – and moral – postion.

        Anyway, who in their right mind would want to be part of a rootless, corrupt, ideology like the EU? I suppose you’re pining for the opportunity that the UK just missed of bailing out the EU again – this time to the tune of £60bn.

        • Martin in Cardiff
          Posted July 30, 2020 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

          Yes, that’s a moot point, since the UK has indeed left – as both Parliament and the electorate said that it should.

          A rational government would not have used a referendum on it as an election gimmick to gain power, however.

          That was handing the future of this nation to our US-owned press’s baron to decide. And he did.

          • Edward2
            Posted July 30, 2020 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

            So first paragraph.
            The UK leaves on 31st December 2020.
            Second paragraph
            The referendum led to an election result which did not give the Conservatives a controlling power.
            Third paragraph
            That comment is such a Guardian style cliche.
            You can do better than this.

          • NickC
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:14 am | Permalink

            Martin, No, we have not left. The EU still controls the UK. More to the point, why do you continue to lie about the fact that the EU controls us with all the programs, policies and rules that it did in 2019 and before?

          • Martin in Cardiff
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:51 am | Permalink

            Oh, where are our MEPs, veto, Commissioner, seat on the Council, and Farage’s useless shower of insulting cynics to disgrace us, then?

          • hefner
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 3:32 pm | Permalink

            Edward2, maybe MiC can do better than what he wrote, but in your case you don’t seem able to do anything more constructive than the usual ‘nipping at ankles’.

          • Edward2
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

            I have a right to post what I like hefner.
            Allowing of course for Sir John to accept it.

            Whereas you seem to enjoy nipping at my ankles as your little hobby.
            You carry on hef if thats what you like doing.

          • NickC
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 5:45 pm | Permalink

            Martin, We don’t have MEPs etc, as you well know. And the EU still rules us with all its policies and laws. As you well know, but pretend you don’t.

        • Otto
          Posted July 30, 2020 at 9:29 pm | Permalink

          ‘Anyway, who in their right mind would want to be part of a rootless, corrupt, ideology like the EU?’

          Why not? We don’t mind having a special relationship with a gangster, corrupt, murdering, war mongering state.

          • Edward2
            Posted July 30, 2020 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

            Bit hard on France there Otto.

          • NickC
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:16 am | Permalink

            Otto, I think our relationship with China will be examined somewhat more closely now, don’t you?

          • bill brown
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 11:44 am | Permalink

            Otto,

            are you talking about the Mafia and the Scandinavians or a whole continent for the sake of convenience and ignorance?

        • bill brown
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 11:46 am | Permalink

          NickC

          lots of emotional superlatives and no facts. Can we please reaise the standard?
          Let us start with where doe the £ 60 billion come from?

          • NickC
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 5:52 pm | Permalink

            Bill, The £60bn would have come from the UK. I did warn you that we weren’t going to bail you out any more. But you replied with some twaddle about WW2 because you misunderstood. As usual.

          • Edward2
            Posted August 1, 2020 at 7:10 pm | Permalink

            Well said Nick

      • czerwonadupa
        Posted July 31, 2020 at 2:38 pm | Permalink

        There is no third way. You are either free or not. There’s no such thing as a half free person or country.

        • Martin in Cardiff
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 3:59 pm | Permalink

          Oh dear.

        • bill brown
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 5:31 pm | Permalink

          czerwonadupa

          Oh dear, which world do you live in?

          • Edward2
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:18 pm | Permalink

            Presumably as he says quite clearly he prefers to live in a free country and to be a free person in an independent country.
            What about you bill?

  2. Stephen Priest
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:05 am | Permalink

    The Remoaner get out clause would be to blame Donald Trump for the weakness of the dollar.

    • jerry
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:33 am | Permalink

      @Stephen Priest; Perhaps the first time any ‘Remoaner’ has been correct!

      Only those who choose to be both deaf and blind could have failed to see the errors the current POTUS has made in the last 5 months, is it any surprise the polls do not look good for his re-election, with some supposedly safe GOP States swinging to either undecided or changing colour.

      Those on the political right might love their freedoms but they love living even more.

      • Anonymous
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 7:55 am | Permalink

        The UK is facing a possible second ‘nuclear’ economic lockdown – other nations similar.

        At least it is admitted that the first lockdown was ‘nuclear’.

        If we don’t lockdown a second time why did we lockdown the first ? We knew the first time the people who were most likely affected by the disease and now we face the possibility another outbreak and of doing things differently – shield the vulnerable, keep the economy moving.

        President Trump was right when he said that the cure must not be worse than the disease and still, no one has said how many will die from the consequences of lockdown.

        For example. President Trump’s defence of hydroxychloroquine was right and if it is so dangerous a drug why is it administered so routinely and for long term having saved millions of lives ? Prof Dolores Cahill supports this drug in the fight against CV-19 and you can hear her say so in the James Delingpole interview.

        The US is in an epic battle between a new Conservative Right and an established and media supported Left and the disease is being used to stage a Left wing revolt to make his country ungovernable and we see similar here.

        • jerry
          Posted July 30, 2020 at 5:20 pm | Permalink

          @Anonymous; “We knew the first time the people who were most likely affected by the disease “

          No we did not know for sure then, govts made a best guess, they were wrong, we now know anyone can suffer severe effects from Covid-19, not just the already ill and old. So yes we might have to have a second lock-down but we have also learnt that with mitigation many economic sectors can carry on and indeed some thrive. Yes some sectors will be hit hard, hospitality is an obvious example, but then economies have always had to change and adapt – I know someone who lost their job in hospitality, due to the lock-down, he is know working for a company providing home delivery services.

          Can you be sure you, or your loved ones, do not have an undiagnosed vulnerability, should you or they catch Covid-19 is not the time to find out…

          As for the rest of your rant, FAKE NEWS, how many Professors of Medicine say otherwise, are they all part and parcel of some conspiracy. After all if you accept hydroxychloroquine as a treatment you must accept Covid-19 as a virus that can not be treated as previous Coronaviruses have, why would any doctor keep such a drug from people if it actually worked (and without significant risk)?

          The only person who has made the USA ungovernable, if that is indeed the case, is the current POTUS, he throws any and all attempts to reach a consensus out of the window, it has always to be his way or no-way…

      • Iain Gill
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 8:11 am | Permalink

        Potus has done a lot of things correct, many of which we should have done too, and will probably win his next election too.

        He is a problematic character, but then are almost all politicians.

      • Peter Cousins
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 9:08 am | Permalink

        I am still reckoning on Trump winning and have doubled up my bet! Just as previously he will be behind in polls etc until he can get one to one with his opponent. This will be much tougher but Biden is very weak once going head to head.

        • jerry
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 5:45 am | Permalink

          @Peter Cousins; Trump obviously doesn’t think he can win, judging by his request/suggestion yesterday, fortunately the GOP has a little more respect for the democratic process…

          • a-tracy
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 1:21 pm | Permalink

            13 Mar 2020 London Mayor and Local Elections due in May 2020 were delayed for a WHOLE YEAR after officials said coronavirus crisis would affect campaigning and voting. This is a once in our lifetime pandemic, if the democrats were in power they’d expect to extend.

            “It is also vital that voters are able to hear the positions of candidates, parties and campaigners before they cast their vote; however, many forms of campaigning may not be possible, leaving insufficient space for the arguments to be heard.” Electoral Commission UK “We also anticipate that as a result of the direct and indirect impacts of Covid-19, there will be significant numbers of registered electors who in practice will not have opportunity to vote, or feel inclined to vote. While increased access to post and proxy voting may provide a partial solution for some electors, it would create further and additional pressures and risks in other parts of the system. ”

            “Clearly any decisions to delay elections which are due is significant and would not normally be desirable; however, we are in unprecedented times.”

            I suppose they could have three day polling day offices open with social distancing and mask wearing and people behind screens to allow for proper in person voting. We’ve seen in our small Country in comparison to the States the effect on elections and people charged with electoral fraud in respect of postal voting and in such an important election any result won’t be seen as valid.

          • jerry
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 4:17 pm | Permalink

            @a-tracy; I’m sure if the joint medical and scientific evidence pointed towards a need to postpone the US presidential election that is what will happen, just as happened with the 2020 London Mayor and Local Elections elections.

            There is a considerable difference, though, between a serving POTUS (who happens to be currently polling very poorly) unilaterally calling for such a postponement despite refusing to accept the medical and scientific evidence that the USA has a medical emergency that not only warrants postponement but quite possibly requires a nationwide lock-down, or at least severe restrictions placed on some aspects of society and business life, as was the case here in the UK.

            As for election ballots and their problems, some of us remember the case of the “hanging chads” during the aftermath of the 2000 Presidential ballot, funny how the right didn’t call for the election to be re-run – but then the chads fell their way in that election…

          • a-tracy
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 6:29 pm | Permalink

            Jerry i disagree, he has the right to suggest a postponement – why is his view any less valid than anyone else’s and there is a good case as I pointed out above.

            I dont agree that the Potus hasn’t followed his scientific advisors advice.
            We were all told masks weren’t effective until recently.
            He closed borders while other nations dithered and delayed.
            We say we want straight talking politicians not giving political responses to every question asked of them, or none answers and obfuscation, however, when you have a person who gives his opinion he’s shot down, that’s why professional politicians like Sir John are so careful over every word.

            I’m not of the right so I havent got a clue why you bought up something about Chad is that the Chad in Africa? You can’t be comparing rigged elections in Africa with the West are you?

          • jerry
            Posted August 1, 2020 at 7:51 am | Permalink

            @a-tracy; Would you be agreeing had Clinton won in 2016 and it was she who wanted to unilaterally postpone the elections , or would you be calling her out – ho-humm…

            If someone is deigning a problem exists they can not then try and use that very problem as an excuse to postpone the democratic process. If the POTUS is following the scientific and medical advice why is he (and his family) still banging on about a now discredited CV19 treatment.

            I said chads, not Chad! Computer punch cards, as used in US elections – the 2000 result went to court, in Bush v Gore, because there was a dispute about how ‘hanging chads’ should be counted in Florida.

      • Stephen Priest
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 9:29 am | Permalink

        Of course the worst Covid hit state is Democrat controlled New York State and the worst hit city is Democrat controlled New York City.

        Biden barely knows what time of day it is.

        • jerry
          Posted July 30, 2020 at 7:14 pm | Permalink

          @Stephen Priest: “Biden barely knows what time of day it is.”

          Perhaps, but at least he does know what day of the week it is and in which month… 😛

      • graham1946
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 9:56 am | Permalink

        Don’t write Trump off yet. He was in a tight spot the last time and came through, against the opposition crying ‘foul’ even though that was how things always worked. Bit like our Remoaners trying to twist the referendum result (which would have been fine and dandy had they won). I very much doubt the Americans will in the end want a lefty with dubious friends who will control him. Still plenty of time to go and it really is only the Chinese Virus which is causing it – solve that one and he’ll get back in.

        • Martin in Cardiff
          Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:37 pm | Permalink

          Ah yes – “solve covid 19” – a mere bagatelle.

          • graham1946
            Posted August 1, 2020 at 9:50 am | Permalink

            Well you reckoned every other country in the world except the UK cured it in no time flat.

      • NickC
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 12:29 pm | Permalink

        So the universal hate from the USA MSM and social media has no bearing on it at all, Jerry? That means all advertisers are wasting their money, then.

        And you seem to forget that the majority of the pandemic measures have been put in place by Democrat governors and mayors. But don’t let facts get in the way of your anti Trump hysteria.

        • jerry
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 6:46 am | Permalink

          NicKC; What are to babbling on about, you say Trump has a problem with a leftwing MSM, perhaps he does, but he had the same problem in 2016 – he won, by exploiting social media and the wider internet…

          Yes indeed, “the majority of the pandemic measures have been put in place by Democrat governors and mayors”, that’s the point, where measures have been put in place, such as NY, the virus has been brought under control, on the other hand in many GOP (and swing) States they have done little or nothing, or reserved such orders on the request of the POTUS, thus the virus has let rip with double digit R#s.

          1992: “It’s the economy, stupid”
          2020: ‘It’s the virus, stupid’

          • NickC
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:28 am | Permalink

            Jerry, Haha, I would not be so bold as to assert that the example of NY is one of bringing the coronovirus “under control”. More like the disease has simply run its course there, so widespread was it.

            Also you may not yet have caught up with the news that over the last year or so social media has been censoring Trump. And censoring many others on the moderate right too. All while promoting violent hard left rioters.

    • Martin in Cardiff
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 9:56 am | Permalink

      Generally, people do not claim that a currency has risen unless it has done so against “a basket of currencies”.

      Sterling, by such measures has fallen markedly, since the period immediately before the referendum.

      The USD is weak by that method just now, for reasons repeatedly explained by others here.

      • Edward2
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 9:11 pm | Permalink

        Thats a new approach.
        If I was trading with a customer or supplier in another country all I was interested in was the price of the pound in relation to the currency the people I was trading with wanted paying in.

        But perhaps I should have looked into your basket.
        You show such a lack of knowledge of how trade is conducted itbis hilarious.

        • Martin in Cardiff
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 6:40 am | Permalink

          You thought that the euro cost 86p, on the other hand.

          • Edward2
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 8:53 am | Permalink

            I answered your claim on that previously yet you were blind to what you wrote.
            Against the 5 yesr average against the US Dollar is what you wrote.

            Good red herring by you again Martin to avoid any comment to my actual post above.

  3. Martin in Cardiff
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:13 am | Permalink

    Or, you could say that the USD has fallen against the euro, the yen and other currencies including ours.

    Starting price for wholesale euros is still around 91p.

    • jerry
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:22 am | Permalink

      @MiC; So despite what you claim is a suicidal Brexit the GBP is out-preforming the EUR?…

      • Martin in Cardiff
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 8:18 am | Permalink

        How ever did you come to think that?

        Both Sterling and the euro have moved similarly of late re the USD owing to the latter’s general fall.

        However, Sterling has fallen from about 1.4 to 1.1 against the euro since just before the referendum.

        • Jiminyjim
          Posted July 30, 2020 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

          Have a look at the pound euro rate during the last Labour government, M i C. It would be nice to see a well informed comment from you for a change

          • Martin in Cardiff
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:54 am | Permalink

            The UK’s banks’ exposure to the US subprime fraud was devastating to confidence in Sterling, yes.

    • NickC
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 12:42 pm | Permalink

      Martin, How’s the brotherly love going in your EU empire? You know, export of vital medical supplies being halted, vast amount of money that we’ve narrowly escaped having to pay up, vindictive attempts to steal our fish (again), unsustainable sovereign and bank debts because of the euro, etc.

      • Martin in Cardiff
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

        A darned sight better than it is between the puritanical English Leave fanatics and Scotland here, Nick. Or London, for that matter.

        Next question?

        • NickC
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:41 am | Permalink

          Martin, You’re projecting again. It is the puritan Remains who have fanatically attempted to over turn our honest democratic Leave vote. Remains are still at it, even on here, with gruesome tales of how we will come crawling back to the EU after our country has collapsed with no food.

          • Martin in Cardiff
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 4:02 pm | Permalink

            Some do – I don’t.

      • bill brown
        Posted July 31, 2020 at 11:42 am | Permalink

        NIckC

        Some countries in Europe are at an unsustainable level you are right including us

  4. Nigl
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:14 am | Permalink

    It was another strand of Project Fear relying on an ‘ignorant’ public albeit I think it was their commentators who were the ignorant ones.

    With no inflationary pressure a fall was good, made exports cheaper and our dollar denominated income worth more. Apart from giving you the opportunity to crow I am not sure a strong pound is what we need at present.

    • bill brown
      Posted July 31, 2020 at 5:29 pm | Permalink

      nigl,

      Good point no we do not need a strong pound at this stage and it is not

  5. Javelin
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:15 am | Permalink

    Sentiment will drop temporarily whilst profits are taken but rate will consolidate at sub 1.30 before GBPUSD pushes on to 1.32,which has been a break even sentiment level for a long time.

  6. Lifelogic
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:23 am | Permalink

    Indeed and this strenth of stirling is despite the fact that we have essentially a socialist, nanny state, tax borrow and waste, interventionist, tax increasing, anti-landlord, anti-business government which is still pushing HS2, greencrap and other endless insane interentions like bikes, insulation and restaurant meals on the NHS.

    Imagine if we had a proper, smaller state, lower tax government.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 7:03 am | Permalink

      Rather than Boris and Sunak’s misguided big state socialism leading to a Labour/SNP victory in 2024.

    • JoolsB
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 7:50 am | Permalink

      +1

    • John E
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 8:10 am | Permalink

      To what would you attribute the greater strength of the Euro against both dollar and pound?

    • roger
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 10:31 am | Permalink

      They are also encouraging people to look for work in the already bloated public sector. As if the private sector who has to support it hasn’t got enough problems.

    • Adam
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 2:24 pm | Permalink

      ‘etc Ed’ is a sign of efficient economy.

    • Iain Gill
      Posted July 31, 2020 at 1:43 am | Permalink

      Yep and as I have seen today the new pro cycling nonsense is just allowing criminals with electric motor assisted bikes free reign to go about bag snatching and assaulting people and make off at high speed, and the cops have nothing capable of catching them.

  7. Will in Hampshire
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:23 am | Permalink

    Seems more likely that the market believes the virus is under control here and out of control in the US at the moment.

  8. Peter van LEEUWEN
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:32 am | Permalink

    Good for pound sterling, but actually, I don’t see that the pound has recovered to the US$ since the referendum, and as far as the remain/leave divide in the UK, a comparison with the euro might make more sense: It used to be 1.4€ for each pound, and now exchange rate keeps hovering around 1.1€ to the pound.
    N.B. I’m both a foreigner and not on the “remain” side. I think it is good that the UK is leaving / has left the EU. As this blog reported, there is already more cooperation and decisiveness among the EU27, see the recovery fund and MMF decision taken last week.

    • Sir Joe Soap
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 7:14 am | Permalink

      Good. As said, we’ve done you a favour so why do you people still want to steal our fish?

    • Sir Joe Soap
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 7:19 am | Permalink

      By the way, the more difficult you make it to agree a straightforward Canada deal (did you demand access to Canadian fish?), the more the Pound will weaken and the more we will sting you and undercut your overseas markets.

      • Peter van LEEUWEN
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:18 pm | Permalink

        @Sir Joe Soap: and the poorer you may become in the process.

    • Tabulazero
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 8:14 am | Permalink

      Do you think they have finished turning Kent into a car park yet ?

      • Mick
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 2:44 pm | Permalink

        To busy building hotels to house the illegals that keep ending up on the shores of Kent 🤬

      • NickC
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 3:33 pm | Permalink

        Why – do you anticipate even more French strikes?

    • Nigl
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 8:28 am | Permalink

      Yes. It must be a great source of comfort and national pride that the prudent Dutch’s money can now be handed over even more quickly to eternally ‘bankrupt’ countries like Italy and Greece and the ex eastern bloc who dislike much of what you stand for But love your handouts (bribes?)

      And of course dancing even quicker to the tune of your dear friends Germany and France, indeed when I see Dutch acquaintances that is the first thing they say. How happy they are.

      • Peter van LEEUWEN
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:31 pm | Permalink

        @Nigl: In “happiness”, the Netherlands now ranks no 6, the UK at no 13.
        All the “frugal countries rank higher than the UK.
        The extra cost to the average Dutch of this money has been calculated to be 4 cups of coffee per year (about 10€) at the start of the proposal, and Rutte & co have nibbled off 1 cup during negotiations.

      • Will in Hampshire
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:39 pm | Permalink

        Oh come off it. Any currency area by definition has net contributors and net consumers. How about I take your post and replace ‘Dutch’ with ‘Southerner’ and ‘countries like Italy and Greece’ with ‘towns like Barnsley and Barrow’?
        Ask any Londoner what he or she thinks about the Barnett Formula and you’ll get the idea.

      • margaret howard
        Posted July 31, 2020 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

        Nigl

        “And of course dancing even quicker to the tune of your dear friends Germany and France,…”

        Surely that is nothing compared to us dancing to the tune of America. No EU country has yet forced any member to take part in their illegal wars like Iraq and Libya etc

        And EU members feel they all benefit from membership and consistently return pro EU parties in their elections.

        Whereas the US has made it quite clear:

        “AMERICA FIRST”

      • margaret howard
        Posted July 31, 2020 at 12:16 pm | Permalink

        Nigl

        “And of course dancing even quicker to the tune of your dear friends Germany and France,…”

        Surely that is nothing compared to us dancing to the tune of America. No EU country has yet forced any member to take part in any illegal wars like Iraq and Libya etc

        And EU members feel they all benefit from membership and consistently return pro EU parties in their elections.

        Whereas the US has made it quite clear:

        “AMERICA FIRST”

    • Nigl
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 8:44 am | Permalink

      Ps. Indeed it was obvious from your Prime Minister, presumably representing his voters views and needs, how keen he was to quickly sign off this deal and looking at Macrons demeanour how annoyed he was that things were so rushed through.

      • Peter van LEEUWEN
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:34 pm | Permalink

        @Nigl: In financial terms Rutte got more or less what he set out to get, the only thing that he felt less satisfied is the “rule-of-law” conditionality achieved before unanimity was reached on the total, complex package.

    • acorn
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 8:58 am | Permalink

      Stirling has been losing against its SDR basket (Special Drawing Right) partner currencies, since the run-up to the 2015 election with talk of a referendum. This currency chart shows where Sterling crashed in 2008.

      http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?b=GBP&c=USD&c=EUR&c=JPY&c=CNY&rd=*&fd=1&fm=1&fy=2005&ld=31&lm=12&ly=2020&y=daily&q=volume&f=svg&a=lin&m=0&x=

      • Caterpillar
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 4:07 pm | Permalink

        ‘nice’ graph.

        • acorn
          Posted July 30, 2020 at 5:30 pm | Permalink

          Cat’, you should see what next February’s graph looks like from the bets FX dealers are offering.

    • Dennis Zoff
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 9:35 am | Permalink

      Peter vL

      Nice satire, ” there is already more cooperation and decisiveness among the EU27″

      I did have a little chuckle at that comment. Keep up the good work Peter, the EU will need it!

      • margaret howard
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

        Dennnis

        Latest news is that the leader of the Scottish Convervative party has resigned saying that he is not the right man to stop the pro independence SNP’s rise in the polls.

        Don’t think we have much to chuckle about. As a divided country we shall have about as much influence on world affairs as Liechtenstein.

        I don’t believe kowtowing to Trump’s America will bring us much kudos either.

        • Edward2
          Posted July 30, 2020 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

          One of your most odd posts Margaret.
          At least you didn’t say rump England.
          Progress of sorts I suppose.

    • graham1946
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 9:46 am | Permalink

      A benefit of leaving is that our own ‘recovery fund’ as we decided to do it was done and dusted in days whereas with the EU it took weeks of wrangling, is relatively small being for 27 countries as against one and is not being delivered anytime soon. We have also saved 70 billion Euros which would have been our net contribution had we stayed in. I would hesitate to call all that wrangling decisive, but perhaps as a member you accept that as normal or even fast.

      • Peter van LEEUWEN
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:42 pm | Permalink

        @graham1946: I’m afraid you’re mixing up national relief packages and decisions with this international one, which is also tied to a 7 year EU budget. You cannot really compare these. If you want, then compare the UK relief package with e.g. the German or Dutch relief package.

        • graham1946
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 10:02 am | Permalink

          Peter,

          My point was that decisions as a single country are much quicker and more efficient. The EU is sclerotic. This is our relief package. We are interested in the UK, not a relief package for the whole EU which will take years and will form at least half in loans. What happens to Italy and Greece and Spain in the meantime? Germany and Netherlands are rich countries already and not suffering in anything like the same way.

          • Peter van LEEUWEN
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 7:54 pm | Permalink

            @graham1946:
            To come together as continental Europe is indeed a longterm process.
            That only to be interested (relief for) the UK is your choice, is ok with me. It shows how different we are.

    • NickC
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 1:01 pm | Permalink

      PvL, “more cooperation and decisiveness”??? You’ve just experienced medical exports being halted, borders shut down, and a ridiculously vituperative summit to set up what amounts to a slush fund, and you claim the EU is decisive and an example of cooperation? The EU has stuffed Italy, and by extension the rest of the south of the EU empire, solely to increase its power and patronage.

      • Peter van LEEUWEN
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:49 pm | Permalink

        @NickC: your comment, even by your own standards, is not the most accurate I’m used to from you.
        E.g. where did I “claim the EU is decisive and an example of cooperation?” I just compared the EU with and without the UK. The MFF 2013-2017 took a lot longer to negotiate. There was also a positive reaction by the financial markets. The EU27 is very diverse which will always make reaching unanimity a complex process.

        • NickC
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:52 am | Permalink

          PvL, Your actual words were: “there is already more cooperation and decisiveness among the EU27”. “More” means there was some before. That was your claim.

          And the EU does not work on “cooperation” between states, it works on top-down, dirigiste, imposition. The only “decisiveness” about the EU is the decided increase of its centralised powers.

          • Peter van LEEUWEN
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 7:59 pm | Permalink

            @NickC: Without the UK ( the “before”situation) it proves indeed to come to decisions in the EU, a bit like removing a spanner from the works.
            I cannot say that you have understood much of the EU and I’m not prepared to start explaining that once again. Just be happy with your UK.

      • bill brown
        Posted July 31, 2020 at 11:40 am | Permalink

        NickC

        You always seem to get it wrong the fund just shows that Italy and and esstern Eurpe need hepl and are now getting it

    • margaret howard
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 5:27 pm | Permalink

      Peter van Leeuwen

      It is often forgotten just how far the pound has sunk. It used to be the world’s second reserve currency after the US dollar until it was overtaken and replaced by the vastly more successful euro.

      And now there is talk that the euro may replace to dollar itself as world reserve currency!!!!

      “The second most favored world reserve currency is the euro, which in the second quarter of 2019 accounted for $2.2 trillion of total global FX reserves, or just under 20 percent. Of the remaining 20 percent, the yen and sterling between them account for approximately half.”

      https://www.americanexpress.com/us/foreign-exchange/articles/could-dollar-be-replaced-as-world-reserve-currency/

      • Peter van LEEUWEN
        Posted July 31, 2020 at 7:24 am | Permalink

        @margaret howard: When we returned from Africa in the late seventies we chose to settle in The Netherlands, but thought of opening a savings account in Britain as well. We stopped that account after only a few years and that proved a good decision!

      • Peter van LEEUWEN
        Posted July 31, 2020 at 8:11 am | Permalink

        @margaret howard: Interesting link! Thank you.

      • NickC
        Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:55 am | Permalink

        Margaret H, Yes the pound sank so far that it halved in value compared to the dollar whilst we were in your EU empire (which you have previously claimed rescued us).

        • bill brown
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 5:27 pm | Permalink

          Nick C

          Competitiveness, how often do we have to teach you ?

  9. Narrow Shoulders
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:35 am | Permalink

    I think highlighting the strength of the pound against the dollar reflects the weakness of the dollar rather than any confidence in the pound Sir John.

    Pound remains weak against the other currencies I buy.

    • John E
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 7:59 am | Permalink

      Yes I’m sure Sir John knows that really.
      The irony lies for me in thinking that a dollar rate of 1.30 to the pound is something to celebrate. That’s not an even a straw to grasp at.

  10. Andy
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:56 am | Permalink

    It was $1.49 to £1 just before the referendum.

    Nearly 5 years on and investors still think Brexit is a dumb idea.

    • graham1946
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 3:32 pm | Permalink

      Only partially true as befits no facts Andy. For several years the pound yo-yo’d from under 1.20 to 1.30, went to 1.40 just before the referendum then 1.49 on the day and fell back again. 1.30 is a reasonable long term average. 1.49 was just some in the market hoping to get a big profit but got burned instead.

      • Peter van LEEUWEN
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 7:01 pm | Permalink

        @graham1946: On a visit to the Peace Palace in The Hague, Michael Portillo said he read that it was built with a donation of about £300,000. His host corrected hin, the donation was $1,500,000. Actually, both men were right. 🙂

        • graham1946
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:53 am | Permalink

          Peter, I don’t see how something built about 1913 has any relevance. We all know all currencies have declined during the last 100 years, many have been scrapped (EU), just as living standards have improved. I said ‘several years’, meaning mostly from about 2010 to now, not 100 years ago. In English ‘several’ means more than two but not many. Long term in currency trading does not mean 100 years.

          • Peter van LEEUWEN
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 8:11 pm | Permalink

            @graham1946: OK, point taken. But 1.30 to the euro is certainly not a “reasonable long term average”. The pound over time has continued to sink.

    • NickC
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 3:41 pm | Permalink

      Andy, It was about $2.40 to £1 just before the sell out to the EU (EEC) in 1973.

      Nearly 50 years on and investors still think failing to Brexit sooner was a dumb idea.

      • Peter van LEEUWEN
        Posted July 31, 2020 at 6:41 am | Permalink

        @NickC: Interesting “logic”.
        This “logic” dictates that investors thought that the British Empire was a bad idea. About 50 years before the UK (oops, British Empire) wanted to of join the EEC, it was $5 for £1. 🙂

        • NickC
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 10:06 am | Permalink

          PvL, Don’t be silly. The “logic” dictates that investors thought an impoverished debt laden UK due to WW2 was a bad idea. Remains keep telling us how good the EU was for us but your “investors” did not think so – and halved the value of GBP to the dollar over the duration of our subservience.

          • bill brown
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 5:27 pm | Permalink

            Nick C

            this all ahd to do with teh competitiveness of teh economy during taht period so look up to reality insted of none realisable assumptions

          • Edward2
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:23 pm | Permalink

            You need some WD40 on that keyboard bill.

      • hefner
        Posted July 31, 2020 at 3:26 pm | Permalink

        One of the most ‘pleasant’ stories related to the £/$ saga is that a number of the successive drops in the value of the £ wrt $ were because of direct or indirect pressures from our ‘special relationship’ across the Atlantic Ocean (Bretton Woods, 1944, Nixon 1971).
        But still as can be seen from some commentators on this blog everything is linked to the EU … forgetting that during the American Civil War (1864-65), £1 was above $9, then between 1878 and 1918 £1 was $4.70-4.90, dropped to $3.66 in 1920 then back to $4.86.
        Then, ‘the beginning of the end’: $4.03 in 1941-1948, $3.69 in 1949, $2.80 in 1950-1966, and fluctuating downward ever since 1971.

        Anybody interested should look at ‘Dollar-pound exchange rate from 1791’.

        Obviously belonging to the EEC/EU had some impact, but what about the impact of those politicians who let a large fraction of the British manufacturing go abroad, either through decisions of the company boards or by being bought thanks to FDI? Their usual poor excuse is that we were following the diktats of the EU. How comes that other continental countries were able to keep at least a large part of their manufacturing industry? What is the responsibility of these UK politicians who decided that the UK was to become a country with a dominant ‘service sector’, did not have to bother about energy because of the North Sea gas? How comes that research often done within UK universities, launched as start-ups, at times financed by EISs and VCTs more often than not finish off being bought by non-UK companies?

        This might be more relevant than a holiday prank about £1 = $1.30.

        • Edward2
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 7:53 pm | Permalink

          Manufacturing went offshore simply because China and other emergent nations were very much cheaper.
          That applied to Europe and the UK.
          Your claim that we all blamed ” EU diktats” is ridiculous.

        • Peter van LEEUWEN
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 8:25 pm | Permalink

          @hefner: Interesting!

          • Edward2
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:24 pm | Permalink

            but wrong.

          • hefner
            Posted August 2, 2020 at 3:41 pm | Permalink

            So go on, Edward2, take my different points one by one, dismantle them using verifiable references that you will fully quote, show how they are wrong and why, and as a consequence prove that I am also wrong.

          • Edward2
            Posted August 3, 2020 at 8:08 am | Permalink

            I made my response as I wished to, in my post above.
            I repeat, your claim that we all blamed EU diktats is ridiculous.

  11. Andy
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 7:03 am | Permalink

    I’m not sure why you think no deal is likely.

    A trade deal has always been inevitable – even if the UK has to come back begging sometime next year when some foods run out.

    More likely is that Johnson will pretty much capitulate in October but will claim he has won. The EU will probably give him something fishing related to sell as a win.

    He can declare victory having gained a fish nugget for a minuscule industry – while the EU can chortle that he sold out the City in the process.

    • NickC
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 3:46 pm | Permalink

      Andy, Is this like your previous predictions that we would accept what the EU offered Theresa May?

      • Andy
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

        Erm, we did. Did you miss that bit?

        • NickC
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 10:09 am | Permalink

          Ermm, we didn’t. We missed all the deadlines to exit the EU under Theresa May’s deal. Or did you miss that bit? And we still haven’t left yet.

          • Martin in Cardiff
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 4:07 pm | Permalink

            Ask all of Farage’s MEPs who have – marvellous to say – lost their jobs about that, Nick.

          • NickC
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 6:45 pm | Permalink

            Martin, We’re still paying the EU our money, still subject to the ECJ, and still required to obey all EU laws. So, no, we haven’t left yet.

    • Peter van LEEUWEN
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 7:07 pm | Permalink

      @Andy: Whatever meager deal may be reached in the end, I’m sure we on the continent will sell it as a great victory for Boris Johson, just like we did with the WA. After all, Brexit still features a lot in the UK media, whereas on the continent people and governments have moved on and have lost interest.

      • czerwonadupa
        Posted July 31, 2020 at 3:49 pm | Permalink

        Not on the foreign TV I watch. Maybe that’s because they still have many of their nationals still stubbornly deciding to stay in Brexit Britain rather than return home.
        And ask yourself why so many young men from African & Middle eastern countries continue to pass through your empire in their determination to reach Brexit Britain? Obviously they haven’t listened to your,’s Micheal’s’s and & Margaret’s prophesies of doom

        • Peter van LEEUWEN
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 8:21 pm | Permalink

          @czerwonadupa: Living in the UK still beats living in Africa or the Middle East apparently. Surprised?

      • Martin in Cardiff
        Posted July 31, 2020 at 4:08 pm | Permalink

        Many Leave voters do not appear to know that other countries – apart from the US perhaps – have news, Peter.

        • Edward2
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 7:54 pm | Permalink

          More ridiculous slurs.

  12. margaret howard
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 7:08 am | Permalink

    JR

    Clutching at fanciful straws?

    • NickC
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 3:47 pm | Permalink

      Margaret H, Clutching at fanciful straws?

  13. Derby
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 7:09 am | Permalink

    There are no Remain commentators. We have left. You seem incapable of moving on. Is griping about the EU the only thing that gets you up in the morning?

    • NickC
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 3:51 pm | Permalink

      Derby, There are plenty of Remains. They seem incapable of moving on from 22nd June 2016, and still seem to think they’re fighting the Referendum. Is griping at Leave, and Leaves, the only thing that gets you up in the morning?

      • Andy
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

        We are not re-fighting the referendum. There is no need. Leave has proven it could only narrowly win by lying and cheating.

        No, we are simply pointing out what an embarrassing mess you are all making of the country and how badly Brexit is going. We’ve barely started yet because the really naff stuff starts happening next year.

        You lot whined about the EU and its predecessors for 40 years – blaming it for all our ills. We’ve had only 4 years to moan about Brexit and the bad bits haven’t kicked in yet. And we’ll be blaming Brexit until we rejoin – which one day we will.

        • Edward2
          Posted July 30, 2020 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

          You are getting more extreme as Brexit approaches.
          I’m looking forward to your comments in January 2021.

          • Martin in Cardiff
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 6:46 am | Permalink

            Your obsessively-craved brexit has happened.

            However, you appear to need to believe that you still have something to which to look forward, Ed.

            The UK cannot leave again.

            That ship has sailed.

            Farage can no longer insult our friends, nor can any English PM throw a spanner into the progress of the European Union with a veto, nor influence it in any significant way.

          • bill brown
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 8:00 am | Permalink

            Edward 2
            Yawn

          • Edward2
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 8:56 am | Permalink

            Yawn?
            At least you managed to type that word error free.
            You are making progress bill.

          • bill brown
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 5:25 pm | Permalink

            Edward 2

            I wish I could say the tsame thing about you , taht is making progress, but no facts as usual .

          • Edward2
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:24 pm | Permalink

            pardon?

        • Peter van LEEUWEN
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 7:38 am | Permalink

          @Andy: I find it impossible to predict whether in 10, 20 or 30 years the UK would want to rejoin the EU as a full member with all its consequences. It is very much up to younger generations. I’m pretty sure though that nationalism will wane and interdependence will be valued above independence.

          • Edward2
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 8:59 am | Permalink

            But it isn’t interdependence with the EU.
            That was more the idea of the original Common Market.
            The United States of Europe is a very different superstate concept.

        • NickC
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 10:13 am | Permalink

          Andy, You’ve never stopped fighting the Referendum. Remain very nearly destroyed our democracy so fanatical has been its aim of overturning the Leave vote. And you still claim we will crawl back to EU subservience.

        • czerwonadupa
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 3:53 pm | Permalink

          George Osborne spent more sending his pamphlet “Project Fear” into every household than Putin supposedly did.

      • Martin in Cardiff
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

        What?

        I know of no Remain voter who does not accept that the UK has left the European Union.

        It is the Leave puritans who are in denial of that simple fact.

        • Edward2
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 6:29 am | Permalink

          We are still paying membership fees.
          Perhaps you can get us a refund as you claim we are not members anymore.

          • Martin in Cardiff
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:57 am | Permalink

            No, it’s a facilities fee, as Norway etc. pay.

          • Edward2
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 5:27 pm | Permalink

            We don’t pay if we have really left the EU.

        • NickC
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 10:16 am | Permalink

          Martin, Is the UK still subject to the EU’s CFP? Are we, as a nation, still subject to the CAP, CCP, and ECJ? A simple “yes” or “no” will suffice.

          • Martin in Cardiff
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 4:13 pm | Permalink

            Switzerland and Norway, non-members, have agreed to uphold European Union standards and arrangements too. That does not make them members.

            The UK could continue in like manner, or be very silly.

            I suppose that as ever of late, it will do the latter.

          • Edward2
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 5:30 pm | Permalink

            Yet nations like America South Korea Australia and dozens of others have no such arrangement and trade billions successfully every year with the EU

        • czerwonadupa
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 4:00 pm | Permalink

          Funny word ‘puritans’ you use to describe freedom supporters. Is that what you think of Gandhi or Mandela – Puritans? I hate to think the word you use for Nigel.

          • Edward2
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:26 pm | Permalink

            It is Martin’s new word.
            He read it in the Guardian.
            Very fashionable.

    • czerwonadupa
      Posted July 31, 2020 at 3:51 pm | Permalink

      Rejoiners

  14. Posted July 30, 2020 at 7:19 am | Permalink

    Better news indeed – but we cannot expect remaoners to concede anything – that would go against their code

    • Andy
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

      Find some good Brexit news and we will credit you for it. But 4 years on you have yet to find any. The pound still being down 15% against the dollar compared to June 2016 is not a good news story. So tell us some positive Brexit news. We can wait. (We’ll have to).

      • Posted July 31, 2020 at 7:27 am | Permalink

        Those 4 wasted years are down to you remoaners – without them we’d have been out of the EU, and by now flourishing.

        Why do you imagine the EU are fighting tooth and nail to retain some control over the UK – they don’t want us to flourish because it would show the EU up as a pathetic Broken state, devoid of innovation, strangling itself to death on it’s own red tape.

        • Martin in Cardiff
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:59 am | Permalink

          You’d still be claiming that if you lived for another fifty years.

          Just accept that you messed up badly, and own your mess.

          • Posted July 31, 2020 at 2:50 pm | Permalink

            I can only laugh at that irrational response….

            Just how were we supposed to achieve anything worthwhile while we are still under the thumb of the EU.

            The future can only be brighter outside of the EU — just open your eyes to the possibilities, and thank your lucky star

        • bill brown
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

          Bryan Hrris,

          No factual items to back up your paradise outside the EU, all rather disappointting and all fake news

          • Edward2
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

            Yet no facts from you bill in your post.
            A bit silly really.

      • czerwonadupa
        Posted July 31, 2020 at 4:06 pm | Permalink

        As you seem to view everything through economics could you tell us if entering WW2 worth fighting for considering the economic damage it did to this country?

  15. Trev Ess
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 8:02 am | Permalink

    All fiat currencies are heading to zero due to the appalling policies of their governments. Currently the dollar is falling faster but there is no guarantee that will continue for any length of time.

  16. villaking
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 8:06 am | Permalink

    One of your sillier posts, Sir John! The possibility of reverting to WTO rules with our biggest trading partner correlates with our currency now being somewhere close to its 2016 value to the USD?? Have you considered other factors such as the dollar’s value against other major currencies, current events in the USA driving dollar weakness, the value of the pound compared to the currency of said biggest trading partner etc.? Anyhow, you asked for a remain perspective on why the pound is close to 1.30 and there you have it. Perhaps you could agree to post something on here in January about the value of GBP v EUR if there are new, significant trade barriers with the EU as you wish

    • NickC
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

      Villaking, Our biggest trading partner is the USA. Unless, that is, you accept the EU is a single political entity – an empire, as it were – which Remains are reluctant to do (where is Bill Brown when you need him?).

      Please bear in mind that over 87% of UK GDP derives from trade with people other than the EU. And of course even you would have to admit that 87% is rather more important than 12.6%.

  17. John E
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 8:07 am | Permalink

    When we were born in the 1950’s a pound bought about 2.7 dollars.

    • graham1946
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

      When I was a kid we called five bob (25p) a dollar.

    • JohnK
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 3:41 pm | Permalink

      John E:

      In the 1950s a pound was worth a fixed £2.80, because under the Bretton Woods agreement currencies were fixed to the dollar, and the dollar was valued at $35 to an ounce of gold.

      Harold Wilson’s government devalued the pound to $2.40 in 1967 because the economy could not cope with the pound being so high. He also fatuously tried to claim that the “pound in your pocket” was not devalued, which of course it was.

      President Nixon took the dollar off the gold peg in 1971, when he declared that America would pay its debts in dollars, not gold. The French had been insisting on gold you see, and even sent a cruiser over to New York to collect it.

      So since 1971 the world’s currencies fluctuate against each other, but are backed by absolutely nothing. It has been like giving the keys to a sweet shop to a child, and politicians have behaved accordingly. Just remember that a £5 note is a piece of plastic which the British state declares is worth £5. And that’s all that backs it: the words of the state. You can trust them if you want to…

      • Martin in Cardiff
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

        Right.

        So the pound in your pocket has been devalued by its fall since, and owing to, the referendum, then.

        If not, then why not?

        • czerwonadupa
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

          Simple answers for simple minds but responsible adults understand more complicated reasons.

          • Martin in Cardiff
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 7:10 pm | Permalink

            “Double standards” are quick and easy enough to say, Czer.

          • Edward2
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 7:55 pm | Permalink

            Martin is frustrated.
            He hoped the EU would bring real socialism to the UK.
            Now that will never happen.

  18. Tabulazero
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 8:08 am | Permalink

    The only country that has managed to bungle more its response to COVID under Boris Johnson is the US under Donald Trump.

    Since the display of sheer incompetence has been marginally smaller on this side of the Atlantic, the Pound has appreciated versus the Dollar.

    The Pound however still trade at 1.10 versus the Euro. Do you care to remember where it used to trade prior to the referendum.

    Care to reply to the above as a trained economist?

    • graham1946
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 3:46 pm | Permalink

      I’m not going looking for the charts, but remember well before the referendum as a result of the big crash it was forecast that the pound and the Euro would be at parity and remain there. That never happened although it was much higher at the turn of the century (about 1.70 I think) and went on down from there (all the time we were members of the EU).

      • bill brown
        Posted July 31, 2020 at 11:35 am | Permalink

        and it also went down before we became members

        • Edward2
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 5:30 pm | Permalink

          and up too

    • NickC
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 4:02 pm | Permalink

      Tabulazero, The GBP lost half of its value wrt the dollar whilst the UK was subservient to the EU (previously EEC). That is an abysmal track record, showing how badly we’ve done as part of the EU empire.

      • bill brown
        Posted July 31, 2020 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

        Nick C

        We lost that much value on teh dollar in the 1960’s as well so just look at your history, when we aere the sick man of Europe

        • Edward2
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:29 pm | Permalink

          Living in the past bill.
          Fact for you.
          1960s are 60 years ago.

          • bill brown
            Posted August 2, 2020 at 7:31 pm | Permalink

            eDWARD 2

            You have obviously forgotten for convenience

          • Edward2
            Posted August 3, 2020 at 8:04 am | Permalink

            Problems with you keyboard again bill?

      • Martin in Cardiff
        Posted July 31, 2020 at 7:11 pm | Permalink

        It hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory since we left a few months back, has it?

  19. Peter Parsons
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 8:10 am | Permalink

    Both the Sterling currency indexn and the US Dollar currency index have declined over the last six months. Talking about Sterling’s performance only against the Dollar is like claiming Watford had a good season in the Premier League because they got more points than Norwich City.

  20. Caterpillar
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 8:12 am | Permalink

    USD has been weakened by the pre-election political performance going on. This has prevented progress on;

    Race related rioting (which is also masking class polarization)
    CV19 related benefits and stimulus
    and to some extent USA-China relations.

    It is also increasing wedge between mid and coastal USA.

    Moreovee the big tech power questions remain on going.

    The mess is appearing to benefit the Democrats so is likely to continue until at least the election, hence the recent weakness in USD.

    It is perhaps more worrying in that there appears to be a growing feeling in the USA that it is becoming no longer the land of the free with a rapid spread of the cancel culture, a decline in free speech and serious calls to essentially rip up everything and start again.

    The ‘west’ should be very worried about the potential loss of the USA.

  21. Everhopeful
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 8:52 am | Permalink

    Surely, since the UK has been so needlessly and royally screwed this can only indicate that the similarly screwed US economy is tanking?
    This govt. has removed all hope.
    And apparently PP’s new, much-lauded, forked-tongued immigration policy will welcome millions more to partake in our joy!
    Welcome to the UK…we once were a sane country…..

  22. zorro
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 9:18 am | Permalink

    Who really cares when we live in an (in)effective and illiberal authoritarian regime. Abolish the Coronavirus Act! Why is our dreaded Health Commissar Mat Hang Kok so ‘invested’ in these vaccines which are being bought up to deal with ‘Coronavirus’ …? Why not COVID 19 anymore? Is my prediction from earlier this year which you didn’t want to print initially actually coming true?

    zorro

    • zorro
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 9:45 am | Permalink

      Why is the UK government enforcing masks on us which increase the risk of contracting COVID 19 according to the Deputy CMO and are of no proven use in preventing disease contraction, and particularly when other European governments like Sweden, Norway and Denmark are not enforcing their usage?

      zorro

  23. Posted July 30, 2020 at 9:30 am | Permalink

    Migration Watch has just produced a new report, see Conservative Woman this morning at
    https://conservativewoman.co.uk/breaking-news-an-open-door-to-600-million-madness/
    There is no hope for this nation, to put it mildly, with this ‘Conservative’ government of globalists.

  24. Dennis Zoff
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 9:56 am | Permalink

    Good Morning John

    Based on the current comments, you just can’t catch a break from the “my bottle is half empty” brigade.

    I have been reliably informed from my own sources (international intergroup finance department – run by a Dutchman) who are paid to get it right?…..

    …..”Once the UK has left the EU in Dec the pound will rally strongly against a bucket of currencies”

    If I am in receipt of this information, then most surely so are the money markets?

  25. Zorro
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 9:58 am | Permalink
  26. glen cullen
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 10:12 am | Permalink

    Move important will be the £ rate on the 31st December when Boris and his government have caved at the 11th hour to the EU demands to secure a deal

  27. Costas Los
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 10:19 am | Permalink

    This is not about the pound’s performance. It’s a determination of the US to depress the dollar via monetary policy. BTW, you omitted to mention that parallel to the GBP, the EUR has also strengthened.

  28. Old person
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    Yes, the increase in GBPUSD exchange rate is welcome, but a deeper analysis reveals something different.
    (Note: A 9ct gold wedding ring contains about 3gm of pure gold.)

    23rd May 2016 GBPUSD=1.448 GBPEUR=1.292 1gm gold=£27.71
    23rd Jun 2016 B R E X I T R E F E R EN D UM
    22nd Jul 2016 GBPUSD=1.310 GBPEUR=1.189 1gm gold=£32.48
    30th Jul 2020 GBPUSD=1.300 GBPEUR=1.106 1gm gold=£48.29

    As the gold ETFs in circulation are more than 10 times the amount of physical gold ever mined, who knows were this is going.

  29. Stred
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 10:27 am | Permalink

    I read that around 100 Conservative MPs are plotting to vote down WTO trading in order to force cooperation with EU demands for Brino. They are the same lot that torpedoed a clean break before. Is this true and why didn’t the Party get rid of them before the election?

    • Lifelogic
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

      Why on earth were those guilty of the blatant treachery of the Benn act ever allowed back in to be MPs again?

      • Martin in Cardiff
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 5:25 pm | Permalink

        Because their constituents voted for them.

        Don’t you accept democracy?

        • Stred
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 7:14 am | Permalink

          They should not have been standing as Conservative if they did not accept Brexit. and the manifesto.

          • Martin in Cardiff
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 10:01 am | Permalink

            Their voters were capable of making that judgement, and it appears that they did not care.

          • czerwonadupa
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 4:20 pm | Permalink

            MiC The choice between a Fifth Columnist or Rejoiner is no choice at all.

          • Edward2
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

            Problem is they stood on the Conservative manifesto then when elected voted opposite to what they promised to support.

      • glen cullen
        Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

        Its truly beyond reason

  30. William Long
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 10:27 am | Permalink

    Strong pound? Weak dollar?What we are seeing is the pound moving in relation to other countries it the light of everything going on in the world of which Brexit is just one relatively minor factor. The World quite rightly sees that whether or not we do a ‘deal’ with the EU, we will continue to trade with all our existing trading partners, and they with us.

  31. Dave Andrews
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 11:43 am | Permalink

    When everyone else is printing money, it makes sense for the Bank of England to do so with sterling as well, otherwise a strong pound dents the export market.
    The gold sovereigns I bought in 2002 today are worth six times more than I paid for them thanks to money printing.

    • Caterpillar
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 4:00 pm | Permalink

      It does not necessarily make sense to simply produce for external consumption as a means of distributing income.

  32. ian
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 12:31 pm | Permalink

    Yes, I can do that for you, at the moment the USA is printing dollar for the world countries who have borrowed money in dollars and at the same time making the dollar cheaper for them, when they have printed all they need the dollar will go back up and the pound down and world countries will paying off their debts in dollars.

    There a world shortage at the moment of cheap dollars.

  33. Tabulazero
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 1:00 pm | Permalink

    That is a clear case of remainer baiting.

    You could not be bothered to come up with a new subject because it’s the holidays and went instead for the lazy option.

    Given the heat, I’ll give you a pass on this one.

    • NickC
      Posted July 31, 2020 at 10:24 am | Permalink

      Tabulazero, You know as well as I do that the Remains on here engage in nothing more than Leaves baiting. All your tired points have been made ad nauseam and answered at every point. Stop fighting the Referendum all over again, and accept you lost.

      • Tabulazero
        Posted July 31, 2020 at 6:25 pm | Permalink

        Because you think destroying a large part of the economy and British influence on the continent for the sake of a few Tory politicians should count as a win ?

        Interesting.

        • Edward2
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

          Over 17 million voters is a bit more than a few Tory politicians.
          And it later resulted in an 80 seat majority in the last election when Labour had their worst results since the 1930s

  34. ian
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 1:01 pm | Permalink

    USA GDP down 33% second-quarter but most stocks reporting for the second quarter showing a profit, to say the market is rigged is an understatement, the books are glowing red.

  35. Lindsay McDougall
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 1:46 pm | Permalink

    I think that it’s more a question of the dollar being weak because of the threat of COVID-19 to America’s economy. Still, the good thing is that the pound floats freely and finds its own level against the dollar and the Euro. I think that the pound will stay low against the Euro unless we get a better trade deal from the EU than I am expecting.

    Barnier really will cut off his nose to spite his face – unless Germany stops him. I don’t believe that Germany wants us to impose an 11% import tariff on BMWs, VWs and Mercs.

  36. Adam
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 2:02 pm | Permalink

    Remain commentators’ explanations would be as worthless as their original false predictions.

  37. Mark B
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 3:17 pm | Permalink

    Good afternoon

    I remember a time, not that long ago, where Sterling fetched over two dollars to the pound. And since oil, gas and other commodities are bought and sold in dollars (US), our ability to buy has been halved. In effect, government largess is picking our back pockets.

  38. BillM
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 3:43 pm | Permalink

    ‘Hypocrisy’ features neither in the left-wing vocabulary nor in the Remainers dictionary. However, ‘trouble-making’, ‘subversion’ and ‘activism’ in in their DNA

  39. bill brown
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

    Sir JR,

    This is probably one of the less fortuante contributions from you in thepast few weeks or months.

    1) According to Barnier, a deal is still possible at the end of the year and the fronts are getting closer. (Figaro 27th of July)
    2) The dollar has lost about 8 to 10% of its value against the EURO in the past few weeks and other major currencies, so therefore the Pound looks strong as well and this has nothing to do with or without Brexit.
    3) This makes your contribution not very relavant at all.
    4) A little more research might have been useful here.

    Reply A pity you did not understand the post. I have added an additional sentence to help you.

    • bill brown
      Posted July 31, 2020 at 8:01 am | Permalink

      Sir JR,

      Thank you so much far too kind

    • NickC
      Posted July 31, 2020 at 10:27 am | Permalink

      Bill B said: “According to Barnier . . .” Surely you don’t believe a word Barnier says do you? He’s negotiating, not telling the truth.

      • bill brown
        Posted July 31, 2020 at 5:20 pm | Permalink

        NickC

        Stop being so naive they are all plying silly games on both sides, but so is JR

        • Edward2
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

          You are pushing your luck bill with your insults to our host.
          Have some manners.

          • bill brown
            Posted August 2, 2020 at 7:30 pm | Permalink

            EdwRD 2

            YOU DO NOT KNOW WHAT MANNERS ARE

          • Edward2
            Posted August 3, 2020 at 8:03 am | Permalink

            But I can type bill.

        • NickC
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 6:49 pm | Permalink

          No, Bill, that’s what you don’t get – Frost is telling the truth.

      • Martin in Cardiff
        Posted July 31, 2020 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

        Well, everything that he has said so far has been true to the letter.

        As for “the easiest deal in history”, and the rest of the nonsense uttered by the English Tories, well, that’s another kettle of fish altogether.

        • Edward2
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:37 pm | Permalink

          Where has Barnier got with his “tlrue to the letter” negotiations on behalf of the EU members?

  40. Sharon Jagger
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

    JR
    Off topic. What’s your opinion on the World Economic Forum and The Great Reset?

    https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/about

    • zorro
      Posted July 30, 2020 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

      Nothing he will be prepared to put in writing. He doesn’t like to rock the boat – controlled opposition….

      zorro

  41. David Brown
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    The Euro has also increased, and the pound is significantly lower against the Euro than before the referendum.
    Ive commented before leaving the EU has been determined by aging English voters who think there was a golden age before the EU.
    I believe Britain will rejoin the EU in the future inc the Euro or at the very least enter the Customs Union. The EU flag is the greatest symbol of power and solidarity in the world and I proudly salute it and always will.
    My hope is Democrats win in the US and agree a trade deal with the EU and Aline the dollar to the Euro. I don’t say free trade deal because such a thing does not exist – every country wants a one sided deal. Like US Pharmaceutical companies want the NHS so they can force up medical prices. Leaving the EU will never be a done deal because the forces of return will rise up in the form of younger voters the sooner the better.

    • NickC
      Posted July 31, 2020 at 10:33 am | Permalink

      David B, Well, that’s nice fairy story for Remains. But back in the real world the bulk of our GDP derives from trading with ourselves and the rest of the world. The EU is not as important as you imagine, and getting less so every year.

    • John Partington
      Posted August 1, 2020 at 10:41 am | Permalink

      In your dreams,Remainer.

  42. steve
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:05 pm | Permalink

    “We hear a no deal exit is still likely”

    Wrong, ‘WE’ hear nothing about Brexit.

    • Martin in Cardiff
      Posted July 31, 2020 at 10:05 am | Permalink

      This thing that you call “brexit”, as you believe it to be, does not exist.

      There is its reality, but you appear unwilling ever to accept that.

      • czerwonadupa
        Posted July 31, 2020 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

        So Gandhi & all those African leaders in the 50s were campaigning for something that doesn’t exist? A mirage. If you asked them it would not be a mirage from an over bearing & restrictive empire. And what were those damn Bostonians thinking of in 1773? Look what that led to & are they your original ‘Puritans’?

        • Martin in Cardiff
          Posted July 31, 2020 at 7:16 pm | Permalink

          They were unable to leave the British Empire by the simple sending of a letter, and nor did they very politely beg to be admitted in the first place.

          But you’re simply a time-waster.

          • Edward2
            Posted July 31, 2020 at 9:38 pm | Permalink

            Hilarious lack of irony from a man who posts 50 times a day.

          • hefner
            Posted August 1, 2020 at 9:09 am | Permalink

            Hilarious, Edwards 28, MiC 27. So please tell me: who is suffering from the worse case of ‘bed-wetting’?

          • Edward2
            Posted August 1, 2020 at 3:17 pm | Permalink

            Today maybe.
            Go a bit further back.
            Martin is non stop every day with his socialist nonsense.

          • Edward2
            Posted August 1, 2020 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

            Here is another post for you to count Hefner.
            Got nothing else to do?

  43. Tom
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 6:24 pm | Permalink

    I think you might find the dollar has fallen rather than the pound has risen. We are still about the same level against the Euro.

  44. NickC
    Posted July 31, 2020 at 6:12 pm | Permalink

    Bill, The “recovery” fund is too little, too late, for the southern EU states. As the Italians have already pointed out. You need to take off your EU rose tinted glasses, and then you wouldn’t embarrass yourself so much.

  45. Martin
    Posted August 2, 2020 at 12:23 pm | Permalink

    You are cheering because the Pound has made it above $1.30 (and €1.10) ??

    It was $1.70 and €1.40 in 2014 !

    Reply brought low by our membership of the Eu over our time in it no doubt

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

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