In the first two months after our exit from the single market and customs union, the pound has risen against the dollar, the Euro and the yen. It is up by 3.6% against the dollar and Euro , and by 8.6% against the yen. In the referendum campaign I rightly criticised the silly pessimism of Remain forecasters saying there would be large falls in GDP immediately after a Leave vote, a collapse in house prices and a surge in unemployment. On sterling I merely said that the pound would doubtless continue to fluctuate once we had voted to leave as surely as it had varied widely during our period in the EU. I thought relative interest rates, QE rates, dollar money policy and the other usual issues would have more impact on the pound than Brexit. So it has proved.
Yesterday the pound was at the same level against the dollar and the yen as it recorded before the referendum vote, a time when the establishment and market view was that Remain would win. It would not have been easy to forecast that the pound should now be exactly where it was against the dollar and yen after a Leave vote and after exit given the elapse of time and the many other influences and variables involved. It should worry Remain forecasters that their one remaining gloomy forecast of a big fall in sterling has not proved to be right either. The pound is down by 5.5% against the Euro over the same time period, as the Euro has appreciated against the dollar and yen.
The future of the pound is never easy to forecast given the huge volumes of currency transactions and the differing money policies of the USA, Japan, the Euro area and the UK. We seem to be living through a current period of dollar weakness, probably reflecting the very loose money and fiscal policy being pursued in Washington. The rise this year so far in sterling will help limit inflationary tendencies on all those imports and will make exporting a bit more difficult. What is interesting is that in the first two months of exit sterling has risen against all major currencies including the Euro.
Since I wrote this yesterday there has been a sharp rally in the dollar reminding us of how volatile the main global currencies remain.
February 26, 2021
Good morning
Yes, but if one look at the Pound against the Dollar over a longer time period one will see a continued decline. And as commodities are priced in Dollar’s that amounts to increased costs to manufacturing and the consumer.
February 26, 2021
Yes it is a swings and roundabouts situation with so many different inputs it is almost impossible to predict. If it were as predictable as many might have us believe, my only comment is why arn’t you rich.
For me my pension in sterling buys more in euros, but I pay more spanish tax because the value of my income is assessed relative to the average exchange rate during the year. If I sell my house I end up with less for it in sterling terms, but UK buyers when they emerge may find it more attractive in euro terms.
As our host says, its current exchange rate does not suggest Brexit was a disaster, though many today will insist it was. It will be interesting to see ,what if any, next weeks budget has. Whatever the budget says it will be up to us as a nation to make the most of it and Brexit as a whole. Good luck everyone.
February 26, 2021
In view of the reports today in various papers that No.10 are putting pressure on backbenchers, who are considering rebelling against any tax increases in the forthcoming Budget , I hope that you , Sir JR , will urge enough of your colleagues to have steel in their hearts and do the right Conservative thing to vote against them.If enough of you do so , they cannot all have the Tory whip removed
February 26, 2021
Rishi, Boris/Carrie should not even be considering or discussing tax increases quite the reverse. If they want to win the next election (in just 3+ years) we need a recovery. Tax increases, expensive energy, the net zero fake green lunacy, endless more red tape and (far more harm than good) delays to unlocking are the last thing needed.
Tax increases would not raise any more revenue anyway it will just kill jobs, export jobs, deter investment and reduce the size of the wealth creating sector.
February 27, 2021
Lifelogic.
This. Is. Your. Life.
February 26, 2021
If the Chancellor caves and allows the ÂŁ20 weekly additional payment in Universal Credit to continue I shall expect the tax threshold to rise by ÂŁ5,200 so the rest of us can enjoy the taxpayer largesse. It’s not just those on benefits who have had to pay extra during lockdown (and the ÂŁ20 recipients get free lunches throughout the year for their kids).
February 26, 2021
Our currency has been free to find its own level. That’s good …. right ?
Many other countries do not have the same freedom …. and look where it’s got them.
February 26, 2021
Given that the UK healthcare system killed about double the average per Covid case (circa 3% deaths per case when the average was more like 1.5%) then Sunak should certainly get some fair competition and more money into UK health care. Tax relief for private health provision and company schemes certainly and scrap Hammondâs 12% IPT tax on medical insurance. The state monopoly NHS is one of the worse health systems going measured by outcomes. Even the fairly poorly organised US system (@ 1.8%) performed far, far better than the NHS. Pay for it by culling HS2 and the mad war on plant food CO2.
Given Sunak appears to be very anti-business and an Oxford PPE Socialist I expect none of these sensible actions from him on Wednesday.
NHS waiting list ‘could hit 10 million this year’ reports the BBC. Surely it is therefore everyones duty to go privately or insure if they can afford to so as to reduce these waiting times for the others who cannot and have to suffer. Also to alleviate this appalling NHS treatment rationing system that fails so many.
February 26, 2021
Sahara net greening in 30 yrs the size of France and Germany combined. When will catastrophists admit increased CO2 has large net benefits? NASA Vegetation Index: Globe Continues Rapid Greening Trend, Sahara Alone Shrinks 700,000 Sq Km.
February 26, 2021
And in separate news compliance rates for lorries using Portsmouth as a route to the Continent have increased to above 90% resulting in the triage area on the A31 being closed earlier than planned. Volumes have substantially increased but not yet back to pre Covid levels.
Another negative Brexit myth shot down. You need to get NI sorted though.
As for the pound, weaponising it was always ridiculous highlighting the Remain groups naivety or a cynical reliance on a general lack of understanding. Up or down brings different benefits. Certainly itâs value would appear to be out of our hands with no interest rate levers to pull.
February 26, 2021
The rise in the pound is probably mainly – and rightly – down to the outstanding success of the NHS’s roll out of the UK’s vaccination program.
The NHS is, if you recall, a product of people who do believe that there is such a thing as society, and that from time to time it is necessary for us to do things, for ourselves as an entity, to help and to protect ourselves.
Compare this with the utter shambles of the outsourced privatised test and track schemes.
What ever did we see for our money?
February 26, 2021
Was the NHS responsible for sourcing protective equipment or is it just the triumphs that it must take credit for.
February 26, 2021
It was a myth that Margaret Thatcher didn’t believe in society. All she said of it was that families should be responsible.
February 26, 2021
Mrs Thatcher was wrongly vilified in the left-wing press and Parliament for this disgraceful misquote. Her PR people never bothered to contradict them, either.
What she actually said was :
“you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women and there are families. And no governments can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It is our duty to look after ourselves and then, also, to look after our neighbours.”
Who could argue with that ???
February 26, 2021
Outsourced test and trace is a big success, well over 90% tests returned the next day and well over 90% contacts traced. Why do you say it is a shambles ? Hospital infaction control on the other hand …..
February 26, 2021
She (Mrs Thatcher) said: “and so they are casting their problems on society and who is society? There is no such thing! There are individual men and women and there are families and no government can do anything except through people and people look to themselves first. It is our duty to look after ourselves and then also to help look after our neighbour”
February 26, 2021
Yes MiC its a good thing the NHS is doing the vaccines well because we learnt today from City AM International Vaccine Passports will be required and the EU say theirs will be ready by summer, let’s hope the NHS admin team is as good as the front line and can print our certificates efficiently or send them to our phones.
February 26, 2021
OHhad AZ jab yesterday.
Very ill.
Swollen arm, totally out of it, terrible headache plus sickness.
He was DESPERATE to have jab because of bloody passport.
February 26, 2021
Just like my wife, 30 hours of chest pains and sickness , needless to say I’m not playing.
February 27, 2021
I had AZ on Wed.
Felt a bit flu-like for 12-36 hours afterwards – pretty trivial.
February 27, 2021
You’re not having the jab just to get a passport which does not even exist yet. You are having it to prevent possible very serious illness or death. If you react in that way to the small amount in the jab, how do you think you would fare if you got a full blown dose of Covid? Backing out is anyone’s choice, but if a sore arm and a day of discomfort is too much to bear then I feel sorry for you. Her Majesty has it right, time to think of others for once, not yourself.
February 26, 2021
Compare and contrast NHS vaccination rollout to dealing with patient to GP surgery, early diagnosis referrals, protection for staff with PPE, protection from Covid for Care Home residents, NHS dental and hearing services? – – I could go on, but suffice to say you might count a routine jab in the arm ( they do every autumn) as a major success – shame about the major abdication for everything else!
February 26, 2021
That blinking âyouâve already posted thisâ thing kicked in.
February 26, 2021
My view for the last 15 years or so is that a normal level is 1.18 euros to the pound. I still maintain this and would guess that a range of 1. 12 to 1.22 about right. The pound might go back up to 1.30 or so nobody can say, at the moment. I can’t see the pound going much below 1.10 for the reason that the will be less QA here than in the eurozone. Given that currencies are freely floating I think a 10 cent Sterling euro range is acceptable. With short-term rates across the major currencies moving towards zero the range is likely to remain very confined
February 26, 2021
So RISHI SUNAK will call for âhonestyâ!
It looks like corporation tax is expected rise to 25 per cent, large increases in capital gains tax (already way to high and not even indexed to inflation now), a 5p a litre increase on fuel duty, a freeze the personal income tax allowances and further pension pot mugging freezing the already tiny pension lifetime allowance (not though for defined benefit (mainly state sector or MPâs pensions though) they get nearly double with different valuation rules). Plus the 15k stamp duty increase on houses.
If you do this Rishi are a deluded socialist fool. Hope this is honest enough for you Rishi? Election in perhaps only three and a bit years!
You need to grow the wealth creating sector not throttle it further. The UK is already massively over taxed. We have vast waste in the state sector with generally appalling and second rate public services too.
February 26, 2021
Yes there is waste in the State Sector but, there is also the Unions and Labour who will fight the Tories tooth and nail. Not that they will have to of course, them being made of soft jelly.
February 26, 2021
LL, come on, not even you can believe a word this dishonest party says or claims? Ah, the manifesto promise of no tax rises, the claims of being low tax party, I am afraid all lies as the record and evidence proves. Highest taxation in seventy years! Fake Tories going for another historically failing.
February 26, 2021
@LifeLogic – It would appear that there are 2 things a play. 1, raise the tax for those that now have no turnover therefore profits, so no capital gain in the foreseeable future. 2, raise the tax so those that have not realigned their domain for tax should no do so – net gain zero on all accounts.
Just like Brexit, stitch up those that create our economy with a bad deal. if they survive that tax them so they move out of the Country to stay viable. The Tax Havens of the Netherlands, Luxemburg and the ROI will relish the extra tax take.
February 26, 2021
But as you write the currency market is influenced in many ways. At present most likely that our service based economy has the chance to rebound once vaccination roll out completes.
It may also reflect optimism that Scotland will cede for the union and cease to be a drain on the pound.
February 26, 2021
Why is the Euro so relatively strong if the EU economy is meant to be in so much trouble?
February 26, 2021
Almost certainly, cable has strengthened because currently, the Treasury does not have to continualy buy foreign currency to fund overseas holidays for those who wish to take them. The current post-Brexit difficulties in importing goods from the EU may have also paid a part, coupled with the forex market’s expectation that Sunak will have to raise taxes to fund the current unprecedented, humungous twin deficits. Possibly Sterling is also being repatriated from banks in the EU as the City reappraise it’s relationship with them.
We must wait and see what happens if the current lockdown is relaxed later this year. However I have taken advantage of the current, welcome strength of Sterling – and weakness in the price of gold – to add to my holding. In anticipation of probable turbulence in the markets later this year as yields rise and global government debt is sold off by the bond vigilantes.
February 26, 2021
The rise in the value of Sterling is good news for those able to go on holiday – none of us, for the moment – but bad news for exporters. But I’ll rejoice at the Remainers being proved wrong – again! Simple common sense led us Leavers to reject the doom & gloom forecasts in 2016. Sometimes, a good understanding of human nature trumps trumps accepted theories.
P.S. I’m increasingly worried that the US is going to overstimulate its economy with the latest pork-package. I hope Sunak will resist the temptation to do the same here.
February 26, 2021
In my experience, weather forecasts are generally more accurate than economic ones and even those cannot be trusted beyond three days. The failure of forecasting over the years begs the question as to whether the subject is being properly taught or indeed whether the subject should be taught in the first place.
I wonder if accuracy might be improved if the Gaming Act was amended to include economic forecasting?
February 26, 2021
As the Chancellor is nonetheless offering continued employment in H.M. Treasury to its own Remain forecasters can we assume it is because he finds it useful to see forecasts that allow him to confidently rule out what they predict?
February 26, 2021
The rise in sterling is basically due to more businessmen believing UK can at last grow and go forward with some of the shackles of the EU gone. There are plenty of things to deal with for progress but perhaps the handbrake is being eased off?
February 26, 2021
Has the pound risen on the âsuccess of the vaccineâ and the notion that lockups will cease soon?
Theyâd better release us pdq then, if they want this trend to continue.
Oh …I forgot…our government does not care about us heading for zero jobs, zero economy only about achieving the impossible zero COVID.
Johnson wants to watch that his lance does not become entangled in a windmill sail.
Whatever had happened post Brexit we would have managed and thrived…but what can we do locked in our houses?
Is that the whole point??
February 26, 2021
Here we go again, howling about the past. There are no Remainers anymore, we have left. Leaving the EU was never enough for you was it, it is your life’s work to carry on complaining about it, come what may. The politics of eternal grievance
February 26, 2021
@GreyFriar
Remain still exists, there is now a re join campaign.
I think it necessary and useful to remind remainers when yet another Project Fear prediction has not come true.
February 26, 2021
The words âpotâ and âkettleâ leap, unbidden, to mind.
February 26, 2021
You can’t win John. For years the Remainers whined about Brexit causing a “weak” pound (as if that was self-evidently a bad thing) but now they’ve switched seamlessly to whining that a “strong” pound hurts exports. In reponse to your piece today I expect the usual suspects will post “You won. get over it. You own it”. Still waiting for those Brexit food shortages and price increases – I’m sure they’ll be along soon. Likewise Andy’s Brexit-induced civil unrest in Bristol that he promised us.
February 26, 2021
It is noteworthy and another illustration of the absurdity of project fear.
Meanwhile, extraordinary behaviour continues by leading EU figures in relation to vaccines. Mrs merkel has now said she is too old, at 66, to have the Oxford AZ vaccine. This is a remark made without the slightest scientific and medical advice or information and is in direct contradiction to the facts. OK, the EU hasnât got much of the AZ vaccine, but – to put it bluntly – public figures repeating unscientific lies will mean there will be more deaths than there otherwise would have been, as some public confidence will be undermined.
Unfortunately it is clear that to the likes of merkel, macron, von der Leyden, Franceâs health minister, etc, itâs more important to score Brexit-related political points vs the U.K. than to save lives by getting all populations (inc the UKâs) vaccinated as quickly as possible.
February 26, 2021
To be fair to Merkel the independent German regulator hasn’t approved it for over-65s so it is not her own decision not to take it.
February 26, 2021
These and other EU figures have been doing all they can to undermine confidence in the AZ vaccine. Itâs reduced its take-up significantly. As a result there will be thousands of unnecessary deaths.
Imagine if it was was President Trump coming out with this nonsense!
February 26, 2021
Mrs Merkel is following the advice of her countryâs regulator – which did not approve the AstraZeneca jab for over 65s. This is because AstraZeneca did not supply sufficient data proving it worked in over 65s.
Many other countryâs have adopted a similar stance with the AZ jab. The US has not approved it at all.
Neither Merkel nor Macron care about your Brexit and the epic chip all of you Brexitists have on your shoulder. They care about their countries – both of which have dealt with Covid much better than us.
February 26, 2021
We will have to see when itâs all done who has done better. So far we can at least say that the U.K. – due to its independent policy – has performed much better than the EU in vaccinations. You of course were shrieking against that and said we should join the EU programme.
Itâs really extraordinary to see you leftists prepared to defend any nonsensical mendacious trope so long as it comes from an EU figure.
February 27, 2021
The US will not approve the AZ vaccine at all.
February 26, 2021
So the pound is strong but we cannot even go to our mates funeral.
Dont think anyone cares.
February 26, 2021
No. The pound is still weak and you canât go to your mates funeral.
February 26, 2021
If you’re interested in the external value of sterling then it’s better to look at a chart of the trade-weighted sterling index calculated by the Bank of England, like this:
https://tinyurl.com/y4w8yez2
which shows that so far the 2016 EU referendum and our subsequent departure from the EU have had no significant effect; nor indeed has the pandemic had any clear effect beyond the very short term:
https://tinyurl.com/scwmdxsy
February 26, 2021
Sir John
In business the relative value is always of interest, but in reality it has no real meaning. Currencies move because the market makers need to make money – at the end of the day it is that simple.
The Euro if it were reliant on Germany is way undervalued, and they like it that way. The Euro punishes the Mediterranean States by being higher than they can support.
Businesses that trade internationally have strategies for hedging fluctuations and most go as far as making money from it.
The biggest impediment to the UK being able to thrive is the Brexit Deal that is weighted against the UK economy. With a so-called minimal WTO we would thrive. The hope is the promise of nothing is settled until everything is agreed still has its place and the extension for the EU to agree terms gives them a chance to reject the deal. Crazy we need the EU to do what the UK Government was frightened to do – reject the terms of Brexit.
The other major impediment to the UK thriving is the over burdening of red tape – but I guess the administrators of it will fight that. Even through it is just spurious jobs-worth creation. When added to the UK’s massive over taxing of the individual it is Government directly that is crippling growth and prosperity.
February 28, 2021
Ian@Barkham
Can we kindly ask for some proof that we would thrive more with a minimum WTO deal then the deal we have now?
February 26, 2021
As you have often pointed out, the exchange rate on any one day is not a defining moment. Currency trends are significant but economists offer differing explanations for these as with most things.
Of more interest to me is whether/when Boris Johnson will act decisively in the interests of our nation. His covid response and EU response are the two main yardsticks
February 26, 2021
A little irony, did Amsterdam do well? Or was it the guys in the City working online through their Dutch offices.
Tax, Tax and Tax, the Netherlands is one of the Worlds top tax havens for business and industry(along with Luxemburg and the ROI) – that is what is meant by the EU level playing field. Meanwhile the UK taxpayer funds the wealth, infrastructure and health that permits some to enjoy the fruits of this effort while offshoring what would otherwise be their contribution. That is not suggesting what they are doing is wrong it is to suggest the Government doesn’t get it on Tax – the more you tax, the less you collect. It is the UK tax burden that the problem
February 26, 2021
Ian, I thought corporate taxes here higher in the Netherlands but after checking – Corporate tax in the Netherlands deals with the tax payable in the Netherlands on the profits earned by companies. Currently, the Dutch corporate tax rate is 15%. This rate applies to taxable income of up to 245,000 euros. On the excess, a rate of 25% applies. These rates have been lowered by the Dutch government to stimulate a competitive tax environment for international businesses.
February 26, 2021
But personally I think that this is much more interesting:
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2021/0225/1199472-eu-uk-relationship/
“Major reset of EU-UK relations being considered by EU”
“Senior figures have confirmed to RTĂ News that a formal, set-piece event marking the ratification of the Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA), which was concluded by both sides on Christmas Eve, could inaugurate a more harmonious relationship.
It is understood very tentative discussions have been under way at a senior level between officials in Brussels and London.”
RTĂ is often first with news about the EU, so it is usually worth paying attention to what it says.
Experience suggests this article should be read as “Another Tory EU stitch up in the offing”.
By the way my letter:
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2021/02/22/the-contrast-between-bbc-scotland-and-england/#comment-1211806
concluding with:
“However the question remains: what concessions did Boris Johnson make to secure this low value deal?
As the most obvious example, did they include betrayal of our fellow UK citizens in Northern Ireland?â
was printed yesterday.
February 26, 2021
Denis,
UK agreed for it not to be ratified until April. Under the guise it could to be translated! The best course would have been to tear up servitude agreement there and then.
February 26, 2021
This post by JR is absolutely right and illustrates why I am so sceptical of the propaganda â which amounts to fake news â put out by the âmainstreamâ media, and especially the BBC which I am forced to pay for.
One big problem is the vicious circle where academics, PR people, journalists and anyone else who needs publicity notice that the BBC likes to call experts with a certain world view. They then ensure that their view fits the profile and they then get free telly and radio time.
The false narrative is then re-enforced and this encourages even more to come forward. The BBCâs weird view of the world starts to look like a self-fulfilling prophecy until, as always, it turns out to be rubbish, and was rubbish all along.
The Pound has not sunk because of Brexit just as islands are not sinking in the ocean because of global warming.
The saddest thing is that the BBC could have been a trusted organisation. All it is now is a propaganda outfit that cried wolf too often.
February 26, 2021
You are right in your assumption, JR, that currency volatility will persist. Given the profligacy and waste by governments, the volatility is hardly surprising.
What irks me is the near zero interest rates on savings offered by the banks. There is no incentive to the individual to save and to behave prudently.
February 26, 2021
Your constant criticisers on this blog write of experts and their predictions and they should be trusted above all others. What did their experts predict would happen to the pound? Who said what? It is important to review what people like MiC and Acorn’s trusted experts told us.
Here’s one example I found on the BBC ‘Pound plunges after Leave vote Published 24 June 2016′ “Lloyds Bank being one of the biggest fallers,” said Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, highlighting Lloyds’ 21% slump. It’s probably safe to say the public sale of the bank is now firmly in the long grass, and the return to full private ownership of both Lloyds and RBS has been knocked off course.”
16 May 2017 Guardian – “The government has sold its remaining shares in Lloyds Banking Group in a landmark moment for the banking sector almost a decade after the ÂŁ20.3bn bailout of the high street lender…Lloyds claims taxpayers have made ÂŁ900m profit from bailout …www.theguardian.com
February 26, 2021
In the non-banking economy, that is the one that the budget will be concerned with next week, the ÂŁ20.3 billion 2009 injection into Lloyds would have been, but was not, financed by the issue of government debt by the Debt Management Office to “fully fund” it. The government at that time was paying circa 3% interest on its Gilt issues. Hence after eight years of government borrowing and a two stage sell-offs, the ÂŁ900 million nominal profit, I reckon, would have been a loss of ÂŁ2,500 million. But, the magic money tree does not have any net losses by definition. Read on. It wood have been much cheaper to have nationalised that bank on day one. Think of the dividends the Treasury would now be getting to offset taxation requirements.
The banking sector of the economy was and still is bailed out by the Treasury magic money tree. It is totally separate from the non-banking economy (you and me). No Gilts are issued to cover the bail-out debt of banks. At the height of the 2008 crisis, only the non-banking sector had Guilts issued to “fully fund” government spending in that sector. (you are required to believe that the government’s budgeting is exactly the same as a household). The banking sector debt, which was twice the size of the non-banking sector debt, was invisible to the non-banking sector household and their elected politicians.
Meanwhile Redwoodians, considering the budget next week; contemplate how you could lead citizens to the shops and make them spend and stop hoarding the government’s money. Have a read of the US FED that explains it https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2014/september/what-does-money-velocity-tell-us-about-low-inflation-in-the-us
February 26, 2021
Yes I know it affects the cost of imports and exports, foreign holiday spending and and host of other things, but these values move around on a minute by minute, day by day, month by month basis, continually.
I leave the worrying comparison of sterling with other currencies to others, as there is simply nothing I can do about it.
It simply is what it is at the time.
February 26, 2021
Sir JR
There is nothing extraordinary in the rise of the Pound sterling.
It is pure psychology and a basis on how confident people feel about the future at a particular time, so no this is not an extraordinary rise and it can still go both ways, depending on the level of confidence in the economy and the population. (including the vaccination roll out) Can we please no leave the Remain – Brexiteer debate where it belongs. (in the past)
February 26, 2021
If the Pound had fallen after Brexit let me guess what you would have been saying……
February 26, 2021
We don’t want the pound to rise too much as it makes exports expensive.
It is good to see the project fear crumbling.
We must feel sorry for the rest of the EU for putting politics before saving lived. Mutty and micron are so consumed with hate for Britain it makes it feel so good to be out.
Now let’s have some retaliation against the French intransigence.
February 26, 2021
You failed to get the No Deal that you so feverishly craved.
It would have been interesting to have seen what effect that would have had at least.
February 26, 2021
Ian you are pre-empting the usual bleat from the CBI, still it makes a change from their usual score to the Remain Anthem.
I do not feel sorry for the EU, my real sadness is for the people of Europe. They are being badly served by the cabal in Brussels. When they come round to reality we should be generous but firm. The price of aid is the removal of their intrangience. By aid I mean the reversion to normal trading and the removal of manufactured obstacles. If retaliation is necessary then yes, but start by ignoring them as one would any ill behaved child. Most of what they are currently doing is just bad playground behaviour.
February 28, 2021
Ian Wragg
there is no hate for Britain or the British people you really have to move on
February 26, 2021
Is the rise in the Pound due to the UK doing well or is it a case of all the others doing badly.
Nobody in their right minds could imagine that the dementia patient currently keeping the big seat warm in the Whitehouse is going to be good for America, or anybody else.
The EU is a mess politically and socially, so there is nothing to impress anybody about their combined business models.
As for Japan — No idea why they would not be doing too well.
We should however keep on repeating the message so that even the deceitful remoaners get it, that despite Brexit, WE aren’t doing too badly at all, economically speaking.
February 26, 2021
Well, a euro would have cost you about 76p on the eve of the referendum.
Yes, it’s been higher than it is now against Sterling, but it will still cost you around 87p.
“Well” and “badly” are relative terms.
February 26, 2021
Whilst the UK was in the EU the Pound rose and fell by far greater margins.
What caused that?
February 27, 2021
At one time it was predicted that the Euro and the pound would reach parity. Like all the other anti Brexit myths it never happened.
February 28, 2021
Bryan Harris
Please do exemplify the social mess tha each of the Eu countries are in as I cannot see it?
February 26, 2021
I wonder if this is true! From the MsM Boris Johnson yesterday threatened to expel any Tory MP who votes against next week’s Budget, as he tried to head off a growing revolt over the threat of tax rises.
Is there any point to the HoC in a dictatorship.
February 26, 2021
The Covid crisis has given him a taste of ruling by decree and punishing the non-compliant. There’s no big downside I can see to being expelled, he’ll welcome them back long before the election.
February 26, 2021
What those reports appear to derive from is leaks from a meeting with the Chief Whip, who of course uses threats as well as coercion and persuasion etc etc to discipline potential rebels ~ it’s what Whips do.
February 26, 2021
The pound had of course dropped , substantially prior to the referendum due to the risk of Brexit . You see the risk of things happening in future is quite an important thing when you invest in things that fluctuate in value. ….
February 26, 2021
At the time when the UK needs the currency to drop its FX value, it goes up. Sterling is bubbling due to the prospect of a Covid final lockdown lift and the avoidance of a ” no-deal” brexit. Alas, the ERG-CRG is hell bent on reverting to a no-deal brexit by dumping the Treaty’s Northern Ireland protocol.
Hopefully, we can avoid reverting to a neoliberal fiscal ideology in the budget next week. Ex Tory Chancellors Clarke, Lamont and Hammond should be ignored. MMT rules OK.
February 26, 2021
Acorn, we are advised that there is no real deal we are just a third country, we canât get our exports into Europe without paperwork, extra taxes, some items have been refused altogether with no reciprocal punishment on imports yet. I wouldnât play this out like this at all, we are a bigger importer from the EU, if they carry on playing silly beggars then we have to protect our British cheese manufacturers, our shellfish exporters (I was pleased to read today that a company in Cornwall has had its deputation tanks approved for cleaning scallops and oysters, it apparently made its first export on 10 Feb. We need to bite back and if Boris doesnât have the teeth then British companies must do his job for him and the British people need to get behind this movement.
Northern Ireland needs to decide a border with Southern Ireland or a border where it is, they canât get both worlds just as Scotland wonât be able to. We are told that the UK canât sell carrots, tree saplings, meat to Northern Ireland without an explanation of why and what business is it of the EU if those goods are to stay in Northern Ireland? The Eu will happily export salmonella to the UK in itâs chicken products and Borisâ DEFRA just looks on – not good enough.
February 26, 2021
Overall the pound has found parity with the Euro and both currencies are now very similar in value.
I prefer the Euro for a whole range of reasons inc the racial history of the pound, where as the Euro is a very stable currency with no history.
The whole issue about Brexit was immigration to ordinary voters and world trade to Politicians and the view that overall the EU is too socialist. However a vote to leave the EU is also a vote to break up the UK and its only a matter of time.
I read a lot of commentary about immigrants on this blog primarily boat people. I did some historical reading on Asylum and found its the British who formulated the World Asylum policies. On that basis we should be welcoming Asylum seekers not criticizing them.
February 26, 2021
The Euro has the combined history of every European Country that forms a part of it, Iâve never heard anything so glib.
You donât have a clue what ordinary Brexit voters are about and youâll never understand them because you donât want. Find a blog where everyone agrees with you it will make you much happier.
February 27, 2021
What do you mean âThe Euro has the combined history of every European country that forms part of itâ? If this is the case, why can you not accept it is the same for the pound with the history of the UK?
Then do you really want a blog where everybody agrees with you? Do you consider your comments to be so great that everybody has to be overwhelmed by their intelligence and should not even dare question them? Very very strange.
February 27, 2021
Hefner, the pound traces its origins back to continental Europe. Its name derives from the Latin word Libra for weight or balance, via the construction Libra Pondo, meaning a pound weight. I simply do not equate the current currency with âracist historyâ as David Brown suggested. A new name for a combined old currency doesnât change itâs history underwritten by the powerhouse of Germany does it?
When have I ever asked for a blog where everyone agrees with me donât be silly. Itâs not me that is unhappy and goes on left wing blogs on a daily basis trying to agitate or troll people, itâs not something I would desire any personal pleasure from. But if it makes you and David Brown happy to do that then carry on just donât expect not to get called out when I disagree with a comment. What you would prefer that I just ignore everything people like you and David Brown post each day?
February 28, 2021
a-tracy
I must agree with Hefner an awful lot of waffle
February 28, 2021
Lol đ
February 27, 2021
We do welcome asylum seekers as well you know though it serves anti Brexit liars to keep perpetuating the myth. Trouble with the dinghy people is that they are not asylum seekers but criminals intent on landing illegally ahead of true cases and our cowardly government have no intention of dealing with them by way of law but will offer an amnesty in due course to legalise their treacherous lack of action.
February 26, 2021
If true, and Boris is threatening to sack any MP who votes against the budget – it suggests he knows itâs not good! Where HAS our democracy gone?
February 26, 2021
Totally off topic. Have just seen photo of a mobile dentist unit – at Napier barracks.
Nice to know that some people can get treatment – ALL on the taxpayers – while the taxpayers are threatened with fines for going outside.
February 26, 2021
I never understand why trading on WTO terms with import and export duties is such a disaster when there are larger variations through currency fluctuations.
February 27, 2021
According to the EU Commission the UK will gain a mere 0.75% of GDP from Boris Johnson’s famous “Canada style” free trade deal with the EU.
Box 1.2 starting on page 14 here:
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/economy-finance/ip144_en_1.pdf
Naturally anything from that source has to be treated with scepticism, but in this case there are other sources confirming that the trade deal will only be of marginal value.
February 26, 2021
The pound has risen against the pound because banks and investors have little faith in Biden’s financial policies. Against the Euro, the pound and dollar have both inexplicably fallen. Why should this be the case when the single currency is fraught with systemic problems and the recovery is bound to be hampered by the hopeless failure of the EU’s vaccine policy ?
It can only be down to the perceived strength of the economies of the net contributor states, headed by Germany. Almost all of the rest of the Eurozone economies are basket cases.
February 27, 2021
well it can’t be the strength (joke) of over 20 of the 27.
February 27, 2021
Am glad I live in west of Ireland and am not too concerned myself about the Pound but as one who travelled extensivly and internationally in the 1950’s and 60’s and remembering my British friends who at the time were constantly hassled by UK customs officers at the airports seaports am very glad I don’t live in your country- consider from Paperwork breeds bureacracy- the old story- it allows advancement for the otherwise ‘good for nothings’- and they love it- but then again its what you voted for- strange people
February 27, 2021
don’t worry we won’t beat ourselves up over it, it seems plenty of others do!
February 27, 2021
The rise in sterling is a little surprising. I thought that we had a balance of payments deficit. Whatever happened to the J-curve?