The virus and the third wave

The European continent remains the centre of the pandemic storm. As Italy, Germany and France extend their lockdowns and discourage movement outside the home at Easter it is time to set out some of the facts and figures on what has happened so far.

Official figures are produced and updated daily for the worldometer site. They are the best we have, though they are of course influenced by how much testing is carried out in each country to identify the disease, and how doctors fill in death certificates for people suffering from a variety of conditions as well as CV 19. These figures show that the five worst countries for numbers of cases and the five worst countries for acknowledged CV 19 deaths are all continental European. The best countries with fewest deaths and case numbers are likely to be in Asia.

Deaths per million

Gibraltar 2791
Czechia (EU) 2336
San Marino 2325
Belgium (EU) 1955
Hungary (EU) 1940

Cases per million

Andorra 149249
Montenegro 139523
Czechia (EU) 137600
San Marino 129123
Gibraltar 126766

The figures reveal a number of divergencies. Amongst these countries with the worst case and death numbers the death rate measured as deaths in proportion to reported cases varies from as high as nearly 3.2% in Hungary to a little under 1% in Andorra. Does this tell us anything about different treatments, or about death certificate definitions or about the ages of the people catching the virus? Most of these badly affected countries did introduce lockdowns and test and trace systems but still suffered greatly.

The Panorama programme on Monday sought to show that Korea got it right with a strong test and trace system, whilst arguing the Sweden got it wrong by being too relaxed in the first wave of the disease. The Swedish numbers are not out of line with other large EU countries that did go in for longer and earlier lockdowns. Korea’s performance is good but so is the performance of many other Asian countries. We need to study a range of possibilities before leaping to policy conclusions. Could it be that past Asian flu varieties gave Asians more natural immunity or ability to fight the virus? Is it that those Asian countries which did go for test, trace and isolate got more compliance from their populations than Europe did? Do diet and vitamins C and D play any part?

There are lots of facts and figures in circulation, but they need careful study to understand them and their defects before rushing to conclusions about what worked. High urban concentrations of people makes virus passage more likely, and elderly populations suffered the more serious versions of the disease in much larger numbers than younger populations. The latest news from the USA showing in their tests that the Astra Zeneca vaccine is highly effective at stopping serious case and deaths means the Uk hospital admission and death rates should continue to fall as they have been doing as most of the at risk people have now been vaccinated.

215 Comments

  1. Mark B
    March 24, 2021

    Good morning

    I have always been loathed to use death and infection rates, along with comparing various nations, as it can be both used to mislead and prevent proper action being taken for each individual nation.

    High urban concentrations of people makes virus passage more likely . . .

    One thing those European countries have in common is high population densities. I have argued against a national lockdown on the that basis and, whilst a city like London may be a high risk area and may benefit from such measures, a sleepy English village or a Scottish croft won’t. This is the problem with Statists. Unable to think outside their box.

    1. Narrow Shoulders
      March 24, 2021

      Bangkok, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Wuhan, Beijing – these cities have much greater population densities than Europe Mark.

      1. Mark B
        March 25, 2021

        “One thing those European countries have in common . . . ”

        Sorry, last time I looked none of those places were in Europe. Our kind host pointed out the fact that Asian countries have fared far better than European ones.

        1. Hope
          March 25, 2021

          Yes and the South Korean Ambassador did the rounds last February and all she said made perfect sense. Johnson and co ignored it and followed WHO to allow travel and trade with China! WHO should be closed down for its complicit in Chinaā€™s cover up. Instead idiot Johnson gave WHO more of our taxes! JR and his party went lamely along with it as they have done over a host of disgraceful virus issues.

          Currently no evidence or justification for lockdown. None. If any freedom or liberty is denied then govt should prove its decision. It has not and does not intend to do so. Report out today of Scaring and coercing people by SAGE subgroup has shown more detrimental psychological damage than good!

          1. Hope
            March 25, 2021

            Oh, and now we have a published critique that Johnson was more indulged in his divorce in February than the unravelling pandemic!

    2. Frances Truscott
      March 24, 2021

      Even a Scottish island had cases.

      1. Mark B
        March 25, 2021

        There was even a case on a remote island in the Mid-Pacific. The comment was related to infection by close contact.

    3. jerry
      March 24, 2021

      @Mark B; “European countries have in common is high population densities.”

      What, and Singapore doesn’t?!

    4. Nig l
      March 24, 2021

      Totally agree. I wonder the percentages from communities with traditional high occupancies?

      I went to Portugal. Stayed off the beaten track. Little/zero risk. Statist indeed.

    5. THUTCH
      March 24, 2021

      All excellent points. I suspect the Uk and Belgium also both affected by their status as international hubs.
      With all those transient EU bods milling in and out of Brussels, still the case, Belgium was always going to suffer most.

      1. Mark B
        March 25, 2021

        Good point. What caused the panic in government to go into lockdown was a sudden spike in cases in West London, around the Heathrow area.

  2. Everhopeful
    March 24, 2021

    Gosh! Gosh!
    The arrogant have taken a step too far.
    Cat among the pigeons at the very least.
    Pushing to vaccinate the children.

    1. jerry
      March 24, 2021

      @EH; “The arrogant have taken a step too far.”

      Why, children have many other inoculations….

      1. Everhopeful
        March 24, 2021

        Ask the people commenting on the Telegraph article.
        Most upset!

    2. Nig l
      March 24, 2021

      A stupid comment. Children get vaccinated automatically now for various reasons, whatā€™s the problem with one more. 200, 00o children quarantined because of even one has caught it in their respective year.

      A family I know well, little girl desperate to get back to schools, see friends etc, 5 days back, quarantined for 10 days and that could happen again and again.

      And you make some oh so clever teeth sucking gosh gosh remark.

      1. Everhopeful
        March 24, 2021

        Thanks. Yes I am quite clever.
        Not my outrage.
        Go read the comments on the Telegraph article.

        1. hefner
          March 24, 2021

          So I guess you accept Telegraph readers as epitomes of common sense?

  3. skylark
    March 24, 2021

    The UK figure are nearly as bad as the above, deaths per million 1,853 and a very high figure indeed of almost 3% deaths per case. Surely this 3% is a reflection of the UKā€™s very poor, rationed and delayed healthcare system relative to other countries. A very large proportion of Covid deaths never even made it to a hospital and a high proportion of those that did were denied any intensive care with brutal triage condemning them to death as a Times Insight investigation showed.

    UK healthcare is almost completely a state run virtual monopoly killing most innovation and competition, so one would expect very poor service, lack of response to ā€œcustomersā€ and very high inefficiency and that is certainly what we get. Measured on outcome the NHS is very poor indeed for a developed nation.

    As you say there is clearly something different going on in Asian countries perhaps due to some prior immunity or other factors so it is probably not a valid comparison.

    Wasting vaccine on people like Boris, Hancock etc. who have already had it is surely mad at this stage and I suspect second shots are are for most people too until supply of vaccine eases or we have give more first shots down to about age 40.

  4. Everhopeful
    March 24, 2021

    Figures?
    When there is a plague you donā€™t have to shut the shops.
    The shop workers are carried out on stretchers. Dead.
    If there are any people left to carry stretchers that is.

    1. Everhopeful
      March 24, 2021

      The elderly suffer most EVERY WINTER.
      And always have done.

    2. Ian Wragg
      March 24, 2021

      6 boats and 183 picked up by the channel taxi service. Why are we still locked down when the rest of the world just pitches up on the beach.

      1. Everhopeful
        March 24, 2021

        I guess because we donā€™t count?

      2. glen cullen
        March 24, 2021

        The French informed us about the boats and we went out and collected them……doesn’t this government realise that there’s something wrong with this picture ? we the voters have been shouting about this for years

      3. turboterrier
        March 24, 2021

        Ian Wragg
        Well done for highlighting the problem again and again.
        The problem is no one is listening and no one is caring to what we the tax paying electorate think. No one in parliament ever seems to ask the question about what is all this really costing.

      4. Paul Cuthbertson
        March 24, 2021

        Then they are placed in hotels paid for by you the people. Total and utter madness.

  5. skylark
    March 24, 2021

    Swedenā€™s deaths per million at 1312 are rather lower than the UKs (about 70%) and deaths per case their more than 1/3 better than the UKs health system could manage. Had the UKā€™s very poor health care system done as well (under 2% rather than 3% they would have saved about 50,000 of the covid deaths so far. But as we know thousands were refused any hospital admission and thousands refused and proper treatment even if they were admitted to hospital by triage.

    Search The Times Insight – Coronavirus ā€˜rationingā€™ kept old and frail away from hospitals

  6. Everhopeful
    March 24, 2021

    Covid apparently comes in many guises and outcomes depending on the individual concerned.
    So how can a vaccine ever be tested for its efficacy in ameliorating it?
    Especially in so short a time.

    1. hefner
      March 27, 2021

      What about if having received the vaccine prevents you from having to go to the hospital?

      And if after one year you still do not know how the scientists who develop these vaccines have been able to accelerate the development process it might mean you spend too much time on this blog and not enough reading proper information …

  7. Everhopeful
    March 24, 2021

    And DID the 1922 Committee ( as first reported by ā€œThe Sunā€) obligingly forget what their leader said?
    ā€œThe reason we have vaccine success, is because of capitalism, because of greed, my friends.ā€ as reported in said newspaper.

    Reply He withdrew their mistaken remark immediately

    1. Narrow Shoulders
      March 24, 2021

      I was part of a focus group on big Pharma and the public’s attitude to it last Friday. The consensus was that greed and profit did in fact hasten the arrival of vaccines and that was a good thing.

      There was concern about gouging though with the price of Pfizer and Biotech vaccines queried but overall general gratitude that the profit motive drove innovation. There were of course a few dissenters who felt the scientists should get out of bed for nothing for the good of man.

      1. Everhopeful
        March 24, 2021

        +1

    2. Know-Dice
      March 24, 2021

      Reply to Reply: Too late the cat was out of the bag

    3. No Longer Anonymous
      March 24, 2021

      That’s it then.

      To save the ‘nasty’ Tory party from Boris’s stupid comment we now have to show we’re not greedy and hold the UK back while all the other nations catch up.

      This is Johnson’s “There’s no such thing as society” moment.

      Mere politicians don’t have the authority to oppress their people as the UK Tory party is doing now to save its own skin.

      Unlawful.

      Undemocratic.

      Tyrannical.

      And going on a lot LOT longer than ‘flattening a sombrero’.

      1. glen cullen
        March 24, 2021

        ‘badges ? we donā€™t need no stinking badges !’

    4. William Long
      March 24, 2021

      Reply to Reply: But why did he withdraw it? After all it is the truth,or was he worried that he might suffer the fate of Nicholas Ridley when he told the truth about the Germans?

    5. Peter
      March 24, 2021

      Boris will not stand up the EU. We know it. They know it.

      Nigel Farage suggests withholding Brexit payments if the EU try to blockade British vaccines.

      Boris will not entertain that idea.

      He will continue to refer to the EU as ā€˜friendsā€™ and try to gain credit for honourable behaviour. In the words of the American football coach Vince Lombardi:-
      ā€˜ Show me a good loser and I will show you a loserā€™

      Needless to say only Breitbart reported on Farageā€™s suggestion. The rest of the media take instructions from Allegra now.

      1. Andy
        March 24, 2021

        Your problem would be Breitbart.

        Try the BBC or somewhere else you will learn actual facts – rather than consuming from an incoherent and inaccurate torrent of hate.

        1. Peter
          March 24, 2021

          Breitbart accurately reported the words of Nigel Farage.

          So itā€™s factual.

          If you donā€™t like those facts then itā€™s your problem – not mine.

        2. Longinus
          March 24, 2021

          Actual facts from the BBC? Snigger…

        3. Mike Wilson
          March 25, 2021

          Youā€™re quite amusing.

      2. turboterrier
        March 24, 2021

        Peter
        Correct about losers.
        My old grandfather used to say
        ” nobody loves or remembers losers”
        Quite right in my experience.

    6. Everhopeful
      March 24, 2021

      But he did ask for it to be forgotten?
      I donā€™t really understand what he meant.

      Oh…O/H says….
      ā€œ It was just a joke love. But people are SO po-faced nowadays. Probably be demanding an apology soon!ā€
      Poor Boris.
      No more jokes!

    7. Cliff. Wokingham
      March 24, 2021

      I really can’t see what all the fuss is about.
      The concept of profit should never be a taboo, especially for a so called Conservative government.
      The pharmacology sector of our economy does make good profits however, their overheads are huge. They are a business, not a charity.
      The profits which these companies make are taxed and these taxes fund government services. Without the so called greed and capitalism of these companies, or normal business activities as I prefer to call them, we would not have a health service, education system nor a whole host of other expensive non profit state services.
      All too often these days we see the faux rage in the media, including social media, which results in people having to withdraw perfectly reasonable points of view. Politicians need to grow a pair and actually say what they mean and mean what they say.
      Profits keep our economy and nation going.

      1. Paul Cuthbertson
        March 24, 2021

        The real conspiracy theorists believe that their government cares about them, the media would never mislead or lie to them and the pharmaceutical industry that makes billions from sickness wants to cure them. Wake up people you have been fooled.

    8. Dennis
      March 24, 2021

      What does withdrawing a remark mean?

      Reply In this case it means he realised he had Said the wronG thing And did not mean what others might think he meant

    9. Fred.H
      March 24, 2021

      reply to reply …many a true word is spoken in jest…or not even in jest.

    10. a-tracy
      March 24, 2021

      Everhopeful, the NHS want their Ā£ per vaccine given extra payment. Of course, there is a profit motive in every action, social care/public work just often doesn’t have the full cost of each action visible and the rewards go to the employees of each service the same as they do in the private sector and often with a wider more generous gap to the bosses/managers, nurses don’t work for free and want over time the same as any other worker.

  8. Fedupsoutherner
    March 24, 2021

    Could it be that Western countries tend to be less healthy in the first place? The UK has a high rate of obesity and diabetes. We gave a general population that can’t be bothered to do anything to improve their health even when told how serious their condition is. I personally know many with COPD who still continue to smoke. I have friends who are obese and make no effort to lose weight or take any form of exercise and I have friends who drink too much. Perhaps we have come to rely on the NHS too much and think that popping a pill is the answer. Then of course there are those who’ve had no intention of following ANY of the lockdown rules all through the pandemic. Perhaps selfishness is the biggest problem. Only last week my neighbour had her son and girlfriend from Scotland to stay for 3 days with her abd the whole family got together including grandchildren. Then on the way back to Scotland visits to friends were included. Is it any wonder the virus has been around longer than it needed to be?

    1. Frances Truscott
      March 24, 2021

      A lot of Asian countries dont count.

    2. No Longer Anonymous
      March 24, 2021

      I have a friend who prefers to wear an oxygen mask in bed for his weight induced sleep apnea rather than give up pizza.

      1. Narrow Shoulders
        March 24, 2021

        (:

    3. THUTCH
      March 24, 2021

      Agree 100%

    4. turboterrier
      March 24, 2021

      F U S
      Well said. I’am sure that in most towns and villages your experiences would have been repeated over and over again.

    5. Paul Cuthbertson
      March 24, 2021

      FUS – Do you sit behind the curtain watching!!!!!
      You see non mask wearers as disease spreading defiant imbeciles……. when in reality they are fighting for the last remnants of your FREEDOM you did not know you were about to lose.
      Wake up people and fight back.

  9. matthu
    March 24, 2021

    Dear Sir John

    It is not only how much testing has been carried out that is at variance here. It is the fact that no standard operating procedure has ever been published, the test themselves are enormously variable in sensitivity, the test cannot properly distinguish between the whole virus and viral fragments.

    If we accept that countries have no wish to initiate a large vaccination campaign during a period when they are unable to demonstrate its effectiveness, then they will have no wish to do so when there is very low prevalence of cases. But if they are also able to influence the amount of testing and simultaneously influence the operating procedure under which the tests are carried out, they can ‘manufacture’ a new wave of cases.

    Fortunately, they have also been stockpiling vaccinations, and will be able to initiate a massive vaccination campaign somewhere near the peak of this wave.

    Too cynical? If the end justifies the means, I feel sure there will be scientists and politicians who will be persuaded this is the ethical way forward.

    1. Everhopeful
      March 24, 2021

      From Public Health England
      ā€œ……… This is because fragments of inactive virus can be persistently detected by PCR in respiratory tract samples following infection ā€“ long after a person has completed their isolation period and is no longer infectiousā€.

      Soo…what about all the folk who have had a cold or flu or even Covid months ago… and get tested at work…..?

  10. agricola
    March 24, 2021

    At the end of the pandemic a large computer exercise is required to arrive at any conclusions, however the results are dependant on the quality of information put in. What we in the UK should do in parallel is produce statistics on all the other causes of death during the pandemic and compare them with pre pandemic years. If on paper other causes had gone down against normal expectation it would suggest that covid provided the tipping point or that we were too hasty in declaring covid as the cause of death. However accurate our figures it does not alter the fact that sadly a lot of people died during this pandemic and many families grieve the fact.

    We must also enquire as to what we got wrong from day one. Not to apportion blame for unfortunate decisions made in good faith at the time, but to be better prepared for the next pandemic.

    Praise must go to those who created the vaccines and those who organised the programme of rollout.

    The big lesson of now is that our friends in the EU cannot be trusted in any future emergency, because in this one they have demonstrated incompetence, self interest, blame shifting, and a general tendency to run in circles mouthing off all but themselves. It is the clearest lesson to date of the need in the UK to drive for self sufficiency or worldwide alternatives.

    1. Philip P.
      March 24, 2021

      What we ‘got wrong’ pretty much from day one, Agricola, was trusting to a computer exercise by many-times-failed forecaster Neil Ferguson. And you want another computer exercise?

      What we do need is a tribunal to bring to account those who have wrecked so many lives and livelihoods, and to investigate for whose benefit they were working. Starting with Matthew Hancock and ‘My GP’, and taking in all government Covid-related contracts. The sentences passed should be exemplary, helping to prevent crimes on this scale ever being committed again.

      1. Andy
        March 24, 2021

        Professor Ferguson said that without any intervention at all 250,000 could die from Covid in the U.K.

        We have taken extreme action. The country has been locked down for much of a year. And 126,000 are still dead – so far.

        Imagine what it would be had we done nothing or had we followed Tory herd immunity policy. Iā€™d say Professor Fergusonā€™s forecasts are a little conservative.

        1. Philip P.
          March 24, 2021

          You don’t have to ‘imagine’ what would have happened, Andy, if we hadn’t followed ……. Prof. Neil Ferguson. You can test his wild claims. Look at Sweden with its largely urban population like ours, and with fewer Covid-related deaths per million than us. And no lockdown.

          If you won’t look at the facts, that’s why you’re left with Neil Ferguson and your imagination.

          1. hefner
            March 27, 2021

            UK ………. 63,527 cases/million ….. 1,857 deaths/million (L)
            Sweden .. 76,884 ………………………….1,321 (NL)
            Denmark 39,098 …………………………….416 (L)
            Norway….16,923 ……………………………..120 (L)
            Finland ….13,619 ……………………………..147 (L)
            L= lockdown, NL= no lockdown
            Statistics worldometers.info 27/03/2021
            If you look at the facts, maybe it might be more honest to report them correctly.

        2. Longinus
          March 24, 2021

          No real excess mortality reported in UK over last year in comparison to previous years. Don’t need to imagine what could have happened if no lockdown, look at mortality data from countries that did not destroy their economies for a seasonal flu virus.

        3. Peter2
          March 24, 2021

          Yet in Sweden…..

        4. Pdb
          March 24, 2021

          We can’t “lockdown” forever, it is impractical. All these funds could have been spent on the NHS in order for it to be able to cope. Albeit with a probable increase in Covid mortality short term by not locking down in the way we have, late as it was. So we probably, acted correctly overall. But we must snap out of lockdowns as a solution, the virus will likely not be eradicated. It very likely will mutate, further- Look at the spread now in mainland Europe. If said mutations produce a situation were lockdown is the only answer. Well it isn’t an answer, because this could be endless; literally till the end of time, if bats are any clue.

          The emphasis must be on treatment, vaccines are excellent of course but they may not be a panacea. I read the common cold prevents Covid from replicating, so there are ways, snotty ones even. I am just saying let us not forget the initial point of lockdown was to give the NHS a chance to cope. Including the morgues.

          So surely after all this, the end result to avoid lockdowns must be that the NHS can cope via having increased capacity. Especially given lots of folk are seriously ill from other things.

      2. Sakara Gold
        March 24, 2021

        Well said. I have been blogging about Hancock’s incompetence for months

    2. None of the Above
      March 24, 2021

      Well said. There is a tendency to jump to conclusions by relying on evidence which supports a preferred theory. Importantly, I believe, there are two different studies that need to be conducted:-

      1. The rate of infection in different demographic situations as shown by test results. This will enable a study of Human behaviour.
      2. The excess death rate during the Pandemic in different demographic areas. This will enable a study of virus behaviour within infected people and hospitals.

      Comparing results will assist with future planning.

    3. Ian Wragg
      March 24, 2021

      Deaths this week are below the 5 year average so no excuse for keeping us locked up.

      1. glen cullen
        March 24, 2021

        +1

    4. Andy
      March 24, 2021

      Yes, to apportion blame too.

      1. agricola
        March 24, 2021

        Add youself to the Phillip P admonision.

  11. Sea_Warrior
    March 24, 2021

    I see that Worldometer now ranks us 24th on the crude ‘Serious/Critical Cases’ measure, down from 20th about a week ago. And we are, of course, a country with a big population. That shows, I think, the success of our vaccination programme, which is preventing illness and, probably, reducing R. But I have a number of concerns:
    (1) Are we wasting too much money on over-testing people with no symptoms?
    (2) Conversely, are we under-testing those crossing the channel by ferry/Chunnel?
    (3) Have we an effective surveillance-testing testing in place? (Sewage testing being done only MONTHLY, I hear, from R5L.)
    (4) And does the government have a strategy in place for when more than half of us have been jabbed?

    1. No Longer Anonymous
      March 24, 2021

      Frau Merkel is happy to call it the ‘British variant’ that is causing all the problems in the EU. It’s important to note that it was *discovered* in Britain.

      You can tell who holds the power to control and oppress.

      They are the ones who cannot be named, mocked or satirised. The one country whose name is *not* allowed to be linked to CV-19.

      1. agricola
        March 24, 2021

        The British variant causing all the problems for Frau Merkel is called sovereignty.

      2. Andy
        March 24, 2021

        The Brazilian variant was discovered in Brazil. The South African variant was discovered in South Africa. The New York variant was discovered in New York.

        Mrs Merkel is spot on to call it the British variant. Though I wish theyā€™d call it the Brexit variant as that would be more fun.

        1. No Longer Anonymous
          March 24, 2021

          My point made exquisitely. The one strain that Andy fails to mention ???? Anyone spot it ?

        2. MiC
          March 24, 2021

          Yes, without the seventeen million it probably would never have arisen too.

        3. Fedupsoutherner
          March 24, 2021

          Andy, so can we call the first infections the EU variant as it started in Italy and came over here?

        4. Paul Cuthbertson
          March 24, 2021

          Third Wave!!!!I am waiting for the forth, fifth and sixth waves because as sure as “eggs are eggs” this bunch of idiots will ENSURE that they come and the masses will believe it. And Boris has had his jab, B.S. Wake up people.

        5. Mike Wilson
          March 25, 2021

          It should be called the Remain variant. You are the one who wants freedom of movement so you can spread it around willy nilly.

        6. a-tracy
          March 25, 2021

          How is the German outbreak in March down to Britain’s variant exactly? We have been unable to travel without a PCR swap test covid negative certificate, all non-essential travel for specific tested negative groups were banned. So what evidence does Ms Merkel have that over 90 days later it is the British identified Variant – where did it get into Germany with their superior track and trace we’re told about they should be able to tell us.

    2. Know-Dice
      March 24, 2021

      Sea_Warrior, cant agree with your point (1) šŸ™

      I would say we are wasting money testing those WITH symptoms… Why not say if you have symptoms then you have Covid!!!

      Isn’t it better to stop those without symptoms from wandering the streets unknowingly spreading the virus?

      1. a-tracy
        March 24, 2021

        Know-Dice, how many tests have you had in the past year?

        1. Know-Dice
          March 24, 2021

          I haven’t been tested and I haven’t had symptoms, but may be I was asymptomatic and could have passed the virus to others, without random testing how would I know?

          1. a-tracy
            March 24, 2021

            If you are wanting random tests you can buy Flowflex covid-19 antigen rapid self-test kits from Ā£5.93 per test. You can buy a Pack of 25 kits for just Ā£3.83 per test. If it showed up positive you would have to go for an official test and a testing centre because they do false + and it would shut any contacts you’ve had down for a fortnight.

            This is a very expensive, often unnecessary invasive test regime.

      2. agricola
        March 24, 2021

        Know – dice
        Symptoms are not a diagnosis, merely evidence, the sort that needs to be tested in a laboratory. Otherwise everyone with hayfever or a cat allergy ends up in quaranteen as a covid case.

    3. skylark
      March 24, 2021

      Yes, Yes, Not sure and more than half of adults have been jabbed once already this cover that population responsible for circa 90% of the deaths. Deaths from the ONS figures now below 5 year average. We should release now.

      Huge under testing and treatment of patient we know for sure need testing for cancer, circulatory and countless other conditions.

      1. Narrow Shoulders
        March 24, 2021

        I would be interested to see the figures for deaths in those vaccinated at least a month previously. That would advance your argument (or not).

      2. Mike Wilson
        March 25, 2021

        You sound like Life Logic.

        1. Know-Dice
          March 25, 2021

          Agreed…

  12. Cynic
    March 24, 2021

    Time to lift the lockdown restrictions. This madness has to end.
    Then governments can move on to the next idiotic policy-cutting CO2.

    1. JoolsB
      March 24, 2021

      +1

    2. No Longer Anonymous
      March 24, 2021

      +1

      And the masks and the SD. These are highly psychologically damaging things. They upturn hundreds of thousands of years of social development in the space of months.

      Mr Hancock is a very strange man for saying we are all used to this – but I’m glad he said it publicly nonetheless.

    3. Nig l
      March 24, 2021

      The only idiocy is this continuing nonsense about CO2. You have last the politics, lost the science and now lost big business because they are all committed to low/zero carbon and if they donā€™t their shareholders will force them to.

      Time to discuss something that you might still be able to influence.

    4. skylark
      March 24, 2021

      +1 – job and industry exporting insanity, costing trillions, making no real difference to world CO2 outputs and with zero other benefits.

    5. glen cullen
      March 24, 2021

      +1 great comment

  13. J Bush
    March 24, 2021

    The message I am seem to getting from the government listening to the SAGE computer modellers and behavioural psychologist unit is that everyone must have this vaccine, keep wearing masks, 6′ distancing and who we may meet and where. They are also dictating when and where we can holiday.

    Yet as they allow planes and dinghy’s to arrive daily loaded with people from almost any where in the World, we are told these draconian rules controlling the masses must stay in place, because of all these new strains keep arriving on our shores!

    Whilst far too many have been taken in by this fearing mongering propaganda, I am pleased to see a growing number of people are questioning the validity of these ‘claims’ because they will not supply any hard evidence to support these fear mongering claims. Subsequently, and responding with typical British humour I see a growing number of memes (traditionally called lampoons) ridiculing the fear mongers and ‘citing’ of another strain from the Lincolnshire flats and Mercier Castle etc.

  14. Alan Jutson
    March 24, 2021

    Anyone needs to be very careful about worldwide comparisons given the huge variety in the way the so called recorded facts are, or are not logged.
    Likewise the inevitable expert hindsight hunters reports should be read with more than a little caution.

    1. SM
      March 24, 2021

      +10

    2. kb
      March 24, 2021

      I was going to say the same thing. Different countries record stats differently; there is no standardisation so comparisons of fatality rate due to Covid are almost meaningless. If you look at the Excess Deaths you will see the UK excess deaths agree fairly well with Covid deaths. In many countries this is not the case, with excess deaths far exceeding Covid deaths. This means they are likely under-reporting Covid deaths considerably.

  15. J Bush
    March 24, 2021

    The message I am seem to getting from the government listening to the SAGE computer modellers and behavioural psychologist unit is that everyone must have this vaccine, keep wearing masks, 6′ distancing and who we may meet and where. They are also dictating when and where we can holiday.

    Yet as they allow planes and dinghy’s to arrive daily loaded with people from almost any where in the World, we are told these draconian rules controlling the masses must stay in place, because of all these new strains keep arriving on our shores!

    Whilst far too many have been taken in by this fearing mongering propaganda, I am pleased to see a growing number of people are questioning the validity of this because they will not supply any hard evidence to support these fear mongering claims. Subsequently, and responding with typical British humour I see a growing number of memes (traditionally called lampoons) ridiculing the fear mongers and ‘citing’ of another strain from the Lincolnshire flats and Mercier Castle etc.

    1. ian@Barkham
      March 24, 2021

      @J Bush – its called double standards

  16. Nig l
    March 24, 2021

    Indeed and no doubt will keep the ā€˜dancing on the head of a pinā€™ brigade occupied for years. Whatever the findings evidence from the U.K. across umpteen sectors for decades indicates they will be ignored/quickly forgotten.

    Letā€™s not forget your government ignored a pandemic planning exerciseā€™s outcomes contributing to many of the problems that you are now claiming as a success for finally sorting out. I am afraid, typical politicians, cause or contribute to the mess then claim success for cleaning it up.

    Frankly however who cares about your PHD minutiae. If the vaccinations work as claimed whatever the best/worst in class did in the past, we are allegedly safe.

    What I and my friends are interested in is why with so many people vaccinated and increasing daily, the millions with built in immunity from having it already and the oft stated fact that it is less virulent in the summer, we are still subject to Iron Curtain bloc restrictions.

    I went to Portugal last September allegedly a hot spot, from my experience nonsense with more mask wearing/distancing etc than the U K. Through my own actions to date I have avoided catching it and now I am vaccinated so even safer.

    It is my common sense that has achieved that. Why donā€™t you acknowledge it rather than insulting it by treating me as a child?

    1. Paul Cuthbertson
      March 25, 2021

      And you are still wearing a mask!!!!!

  17. Nig l
    March 24, 2021

    Ps. You should be researching the differences between the German health system and ours highlighted by Covid. Yes, for political and structural reasons, they are in a worse state than us, but in terms of healthcare they seems streets ahead.

    Now that would be of value if the NHS was prepared to learn and change. Mmm. On second thoughts………

    1. skylark
      March 24, 2021

      Most developed countries are well ahead of the UK’s dire socialist, state monopoly, rationed, health care system. We had 3% deaths per Covid case in the UK. Israel for example had just 0.7%. Had the UK matched that we would have had only about 40,000 deaths rather than the 140,000.

      But as we know very many in the UK were simply denied hospitalisation or proper ICU treatment by their “triage” rationing systems. A large proportion of these people were also infected in hospital or by infected people dumped into care homes by our wonderful NHS.

      1. Narrow Shoulders
        March 24, 2021

        Are you Lifelogic under a different nom de plume?

        1. Fedupsoutherner
          March 24, 2021

          Yes, I think Skylark is Life Logic too. If he is then welcome back. You’ve been missed.

          1. Peter
            March 24, 2021

            Fedupsoutherner,

            I doubt Skylark is Lifelogic in disguise.

            Skylark posts are shorter. Skylark posts are not as numerous.

            There is no mention of PPE graduates, or ā€˜greencrapā€™(sic).

      2. anon
        March 24, 2021

        A Public enquiry is absolutely needed and not just for learning lessons but to examine in detail the decisions made and those that made them and why?. Given the evidence of airborne transmission,hotspots, rates of transmission, lack of treatment options available and the entirely forseeable triage leading to non-treatment and deaths.

        Are emergency laws now required? If so one must be view prior decisions in an extremely poor light.

        MP’s need to get back to holding parliament to account and ending law by decree, immediately or they should go on furlough. Laws pass quick enough when really wanted.

    2. ChrisS
      March 24, 2021

      Having lived and worked in Germany for five years some time ago, I can testify that the German healthcare system is far superior to the NHS.

      Firstly, outcomes are better as are the facilities. There is a choice, as you buy private health insurance and can choose the level of comfort and service you want. Overall it is a little more expensive than here, but nobody minds that because you get what you decide to pay for. It’s far from the ludicrous Socialist medicine we have in the UK which is certainly not free !

      The German system only falls over when faced with a pandemic. In the current circumstances, German regionalisation, where healthcare is governed by the Lande, does not work well. Decision-making needs to be made centrally.
      We can also see the weakness of this in the UK where there are four different levels of lockdown which is, at best, confusing, as well as being divisive. UK strategy requires four times the work to analyse and work out policy. This is ludicrous, especially when one of the four parts of the Union has six times the population of the other three put together !

      1. a-tracy
        March 24, 2021

        ChrisS, and what happens in Germany with all of the people who don’t pay their medical insurance? Are retired people contributing anything from their Pension or not? Do they freely treat all visitors from the rest of the world without recharge?

    3. Andy
      March 24, 2021

      How are they in a worse state? They are a bigger country, with more people in it with about 2/3 of the deaths we have had.

  18. John
    March 24, 2021

    I believe the official figures just as much as every other official figure. Grossly inflated and manipulated to suit an agenda that has nothing to do with health.
    If lockdowns work why is the virus still around? If they don’t work how will you justify supporting a policy that has ruined millions of peoples business or job, halted treatments for real illness by the NHS, caused thousands of suicides, ruined millions of childrens education and will result in the worst depression of all time?
    How will you answer for supporting mass injections of untested and uneccessary chemicals whose effects are not even known by those extremely dubious companies making them?
    I am not religious buy I do hope there is an afterlife and you and your colleagues have to answer for what you have done.

    Reply The vaccines have been extensively tested by independent bodies in numerous countries including countries with no vaccine production of their own. They have been declared safe and effective. I have never myself told anyone to get vaccinated, and vaccination remains a matter for each individual to decide in the light of the evidence. Government recommends vaccination as the more who are vaccinated the more the disease will fall and allow return to normal.

    1. Paul Cuthbertson
      March 25, 2021

      John and my reply to reply. Extensively tested? TOTAL BULLSHIT.

  19. Narrow Shoulders
    March 24, 2021

    I am no statistician but it does seem to me that those countries which quarantined arrivals from abroad or engaged in even more draconian measures at an early stage have fared the best. This has given them the opportunity to fight local transmission.

    Hindsight is a wonderful thing but hotel accommodation and compensation paid to those arriving plus a much smaller furlough scheme for the travel industry would have been lower costs than the measures that we took and continue to take. I recall being accused of racism for calling for our borders to be shut. One man’s racism is another’s pragmatism and it has been practiced successfully in Asia and Australasia.

    1. Fedupsoutherner
      March 24, 2021

      +1

  20. No Longer Anonymous
    March 24, 2021

    Don’t forget obesity, which was already a crisis for the NHS of epidemic proportions. It is one of the worst co-morbidities in the high CV-19 death rate yet does not feature anywhere in the NHS public information broadcasts “Lose weight, save lives, save the NHS.”

    Gutless (no pun intended)

    As is the door-to-door vaccinations now having to be considered for communities that won’t help themselves, a trait for which the rest of us are being blamed, vilified and cancelled. The 80 seat Tories stand by uselessly as this happens.

    Again. Gutless.

    And masks. Social distancing. No. We are NOT ‘used’ to these things, Mr Hancock – you’re the weirdo, mate. These things are psychologically harmful to normal human beings.

    The BBC are at it yet again. Reporting on a young chap suffering Long Covid without any attempt at all to put the low risk of young people getting it in proper perspective. Ramping up fear.

    It’s obvious what is coming next.

    Despite pumping (vaccine ed) in our arms (which the vast majority of us don’t need) we are going to be held back from normal life until the slowest ship in the convoy catches up. We will not be allowed normal life before the EU.

    Mr Johnson already knows that social distancing and masks are with us for good and ye olde life is gone.

    It’s about time he had that conversation with the British public.

    If you’re a Boomer and you agree with this then you have my contempt. Lucky enough to have your Dad storm the beaches of Normandy for you – lucky to have your children and grandchildren sacrifice all the things you took for granted because you wouldn’t accept Focused Shielding.

    Pathetic.

    (All the really old people I know wanted to get on with normal life too. )

    1. MiC
      March 24, 2021

      “And masks. Social distancing. No. We are NOT ā€˜usedā€™ to these things, Mr Hancock ā€“ youā€™re the weirdo, mate. These things are psychologically harmful to normal human beings.”
      ==

      Wearing a bit of cloth on your face and standing away from people? What a useless, whimpering, wet-lettuce, namby-pamby lot the Right are.

  21. jerry
    March 24, 2021

    Andorra (cases per million) 149249 – but actual 2020 estimated population stands at 77543, what am i missing?

    “Could it be that past Asian flu varieties gave Asians more natural immunity or ability to fight the virus?”

    Not really natural immunity but better infection control, much of it in place even before Covid was known about, mask wearing had become common since the SARS & MERS virus outbreaks, coupled to more compliant societies who understand the private citizen is not best place to decide things, nor does any individual/family exist in their own vacuum, society is just that, a collective -they also take such an approach when it comes to law and order!

    Reply Cases per million. So under 1 million you multiply up the actual cases

    1. Narrow Shoulders
      March 24, 2021

      I assume 11,500 cases in the 70 odd thousand population Jerry – a high incidence

  22. Sir Joe Soap
    March 24, 2021

    Yes, a lot of headless chicken activity by governments in the past year. Hancock probably epitomises the stupid emotive type which has run up one pole then another.

    Perhaps the only effective measure in the UK was for the PM to appoint an independent taskforce to buy and develop vaccines. The only other measures government could have taken would have been to organise accurate and meaningful data about this disease (they didn’t) and to put in place measures to help the vulnerable to protect themselves while others continued more or less as usual (they didn’t).

    Bearing in mind NHS property was both the source of around half of infections and their staff responsible for moving infected people off their property and into benign society, a better organised NHS would have helped too.

  23. Richard1
    March 24, 2021

    We will only know the full picture when we can look back and see excess deaths over the whole period. It is however increasingly clear that there is no correlation between degree of lockdown and success with the virus – there are examples in both directions. Jonathan Sumption set this out coherently in an article in the telegraph at the weekend. Sweden has done no worse than other European countries (eg the U.K., France) which had lockdowns. Thereā€™s no difference in the US between lockdown states and non-lockdown states, indeed 2 of the worst, NY and CA have had the worst results.

    Lockdown will be seen in retrospect as an error, albeit understandable in the first instance.

  24. Newmania
    March 24, 2021

    As any fule can readily see now is not the time to compare Government policies, because now, there are highly differentiated vaccine programmes ..duh . Even now the the UK is the 6th worst country in the world ( is was the 4th so its improving )-
    The time to compare was pre vaccine when the UK was the ( incomparably ) the worst performing major country with the arguable exception of Belgium .San Marino has a population the size of Burgess Hill and was one of those above us in the death league. It was an inexcusable disaster and much of the blame lies with those lock down sceptics who are now creeping out of their subaqueous holes to muddy the waters .

    Covid 19 is passed by droplets , they need proximity and contact , the less of it the less you get. Simples
    This is why Sweden is on 130 deaths per 100,000 and Norway its twin is on 12 .So lets be clear Swedens experience is 10 times as bad as its neighbour

    Reply The UK is not sixth worst

    1. No Longer Anonymous
      March 24, 2021

      The UK makes 29th out of 193 nations for life expectancy despite an obesity epidemic. CV-19 is also passed by aerosols… and (being a once liberal society) arseholes who breach lock downs when we have them.

      We should have gone for focused shielding. Our figures would have been a lot better had we focused on care homes.

      There is also the dubious counting by – lets face it – an NHS with a high militant tendency.

    2. Newmania
      March 24, 2021

      Deaths per 100,000 at 23.3. 21

      1 San Marino 233.83
      2 Czech Republic 233.49
      3 Belgium 198.98
      4 Montenegro 194.1
      5 Slovenia 192.32
      6 UK 190.12

      Just wikipedia whose source is the John Hopkins University Corona Virus Resource Centre
      Oh yes it is !

      Reply Worldometer gives a different answer

    3. Fred.H
      March 24, 2021

      Solution is to ask people to stop breathing.

  25. DOM
    March 24, 2021

    ‘TOMORROW your MP will have the opportunity to repeal the Coronavirus Act. If we donā€™t pressure our MPs to get rid of this oppressive legislation now, it will remain on the statute books for a further year and a half. We must make our voice heard. ‘

    So, what will Tory MPs do? Will they vote for more authoritarian barbarity and betray the nation or will they confront Johnson’s intolerance and expose him and his Marxist outriders who are destroying our nation?

  26. ian@Barkham
    March 24, 2021

    Covid vaccine research UK taxpayer spent Ā£25.00 per person, the US Ā£24.02, then the EU just Ā£3.51.
    The UK and the US placed firm orders to kick start production. The EU stood back and haggled on price.

    So when the EU demands reciprocal arrangements – what does that mean. Is true mutual cooperation and reciprocity when one party fails in there planning then threatens the lives of others if they don’t get their way and jumps the queue of others.

    We are not all in this together looking for a mutual way forward, when one party in a tantrum threatens punishment unless they get there way.

    Friends don’t threaten friends when they need help – they just ask for help and get it. So why is Boris calling those that threaten the lives of UK Citizens friends.

    1. SM
      March 24, 2021

      Because he’s trying to put out a fire rather than stoke it? I don’t think Mr Johnson is a great Prime Minister, but the amount of anti-BJ macho breast-beating that is being demonstrated in some of today’s comments here makes me very thankful that none of you appear to actually be politicians.

    2. a-tracy
      March 24, 2021

      ian@Barkham “Covid vaccine research UK taxpayer spent Ā£25.00 per person, the US Ā£24.02, then the EU just Ā£3.51.” This is useful information what is your source for it? Perhaps this is what Boris meant with Capitalism built the vaccine response.

      1. ian@Barkham
        March 24, 2021

        @ a-tracy. These figure are from the main stream media about 6 months ago The Telegraph and The Mail, etc. mixed in with other contradiction in this war on Covid. At the time the UK had committed more ‘as in money’ to ensure third World and poorer countries were not left out. There had been no approvals, juts trials at the time. The UK taxpayer has subsidised the AZ jab for everyone else at cost. The Pfizer, Modena are at standard commercial rates.

        1. a-tracy
          March 25, 2021

          Thanks, ian, why the heck doesn’t the PM shout this from every rooftop. Britain should get more recognition in our part in the low-cost vaccine development. I am sick of the Conservative Party never defending conservatism.

    3. agricola
      March 24, 2021

      The honourable member translate as the idiot opposite on occassion, but it stops fistfights.

  27. Mike Wroe
    March 24, 2021

    Kenya population 55m, total deaths 2,000. Ivermectin in use since 1998. Angola half our population total deaths 530. Ivermectin used since 2005. Nigeria has 3 times UK population only 2,000 deaths. Widely treated for River Fever, scabies etc since 2001 with Ivermectin. IVM should be freely available to anyone who finds themselves with IVM symptoms and/or tests positive. This is an effective treatment that would (together with vaccines) enable us to return to normal immediately. Florida and South Dakota didnā€™t lockdown, California did. Similar death stats. Sweden didnā€™t and they had similar deaths stats to most European countries. Lockdowns donā€™t work.

    1. a-tracy
      March 24, 2021

      Mike Wroe – The average age if death in Keyna is just 66.34 (2018) the big majority of covid victims were over this age. Angola 60.78 years of age (2018). Nigeria 54.33 years.

      1. No Longer Anonymous
        March 24, 2021

        And low obesity rates.

    2. Lonj
      March 26, 2021

      Average age of covid patients in Africa?
      Obesity rates?

  28. J Mitchell
    March 24, 2021

    Obesity is also a factor; it is more prevalent in rich western countries.

  29. ukretired123
    March 24, 2021

    Boris’ s off the cuff quip that the success of the vaccine is due to Capitalism and greed is a red flag to his enemies. You cannot toss schoolboy remarks off as Gordon Brown discovered fatally wounded by his one for Mrs Duffy, remember her?

  30. ian@Barkham
    March 24, 2021

    Sir John There are lots of facts and figures in circulation From what I have seen at best those things labeled as facts are guesses based on assumptions with numerous people creating their own versions.
    The sun came up this morning – a fact. 2+2 = 4 a fact. The death rates in the last year is above the average for the previous 5 years, while that can be true, it is not true that 100% of the extra can be attributed to Covid-19 – there are no verifying checks. Then again the UK population has grow exponentially in the same period – don’t the extras die at the same rate.

    Blurring facts to mean estimates, as with blurring an algorithm that can have no historical in put as science.

    All these are just Media Headlines, that in turn suggest blatant attempts not to inform but manipulate

    1. J Bush
      March 24, 2021

      +1 – especially the millions (of taxpayers money) this government has spent on fear mongering propaganda adverts across MSM. Also the further Ā£2 million spent to keep this going until 2023!

  31. Know-Dice
    March 24, 2021

    Is there value in stopping people leaving these shores without a valid reason and potentially fining them Ā£5000?
    Isn’t the problem allowing people to ENTER this country without proper quarantine procedures in place for ALL of those that come here?…and I mean proper – not sending people home on public transport, trusting that they will self isolate at home!!!

    And off topic Mrs Patel is on a hiding to nothing with her proposed asylum changes…all it will do is tie the Government up in more and more legal wrangles…

    1. Fred.H
      March 24, 2021

      Let them leave by the hundreds of thousands, but don’t let them back in.
      Better solution than the Ten Pound POM.

  32. Bryan Harris
    March 24, 2021

    When is it going to be realised that lock-downs just make everything worse. There are studies ignored by authority that show this – that allow the virus to mutate to survive, while people are not being exposed as they would normally be to virus’ and infections.

    I still want to know why we didn’t go with a tried and tested method of handling this virus – A complete process was already in place since 2011 – So why did the government ignore their own process to march blindly into lock-downs that are destroying the soul of our country and much else — CAN ANYONE ANSWER THAT!

    Why are we seeing far too many laws created to keep us dependent on vaccines – Despite denying they are creating health passports, a minister admitted “What we have said though is that in order to prove, for example, that youā€™ve had a vaccine or that youā€™ve had a successful negative test ā€¦ weā€™re looking at ways to help facilitate proving that.” 1984 double-speak
    Certificates/passports have 2 major functions, deny participation in life to those that do not want the vaccine, and to ‘persuade’ people to get vaccinated.

    There are far too many instances of similar actions happening around the world. Australia is also enacting suppressive laws. Israel already has. Many countries are changing laws about protests. This all suggests a single guiding hand directing such actions.

    There are far too many reasons to worry about our future, and the virus is the least of them, primarily we mistrust the coordinated efforts of governments to suppress debate and opposition to their actions, while proceeding with actions that have caused great havoc for no gain.

  33. ian@Barkham
    March 24, 2021

    Most self-contained self-reliant Countries have managed to get on with protecting their Citizens.
    The UK has done remarkably well, through foresight and energy, however the UK’s rulers in Brussels now need a halt to any progress until they catch up.

    Mean while over in the US who were a little behind the UK’s curve at the start are motoring on. A member of my family working for a UK company seconded to their US division and in his early 40’s has been given his appointment for his Covid jab for the first week in April.

    The war and the race against Covid is for some heading towards wanting to be a commercially dominate player on the World stage. As we have seen has degenerated into threats and intimidation playing out by those that feel the need to stop others getting ahead. The UK has to be stopped pulled into line and remember who calls the shots.

  34. Roy Grainger
    March 24, 2021

    South Korea is an interesting one. Their “trace” involves the government monitoring the location of every single mobile phone in the country in real time and monitoring every single credit card use in real time and storing the results in a single government-run database. No specific consent was obtained from the population of Korea for this. One could only imagine the complaints from Panorama if the government had introduced that here.

    Gibraltar up at the top of your lists there but on the other hand they have vaccinated their entire adult population now so well done, much better than in Algeciras just over the border in Spain.

    It seems to me the main reason UK has done worse than Germany for deaths (so far) is the initial poor protection of care homes and the total inability of the NHS to control infection spread in hospitals which is still continuing. What % of total deaths were from infections acquired while patients were already in care homes and hospitals ? 40% ? You can lock down the general population as much as you like and it has no impact on those deaths.

  35. a-tracy
    March 24, 2021

    SW I don’t believe we have tested the vaccine programme yet. Everyone has been effectively locked down since 23rd December and some Counties earlier than that when they hit stage 4.

  36. a-tracy
    March 24, 2021

    SW, I don’t believe we have tested the vaccine programme yet. Everyone has been effectively locked down since 23rd December and some Counties of the UK earlier than that when they hit stage 4.

  37. Christine
    March 24, 2021

    I think the best guesstimate can be found by using the death rate compared with the five-year average.
    Last year (based on 52 weeks) England & Wales had an excess death rate of 72,916.

    This year the numbers are plummeting. The latest statistics from the ONS show that week ending 12 March 2021 (Week 10), the number of deaths registered in England and Wales was 4.4% below the * five-year average.

    In Week 10, deaths involving COVID-19 accounted for 13.7% of all deaths in England and Wales, compared with 18.2% in Week 9.

    *The five-year average has been provided for 2015 to 2019 (rather than 2016 to 2020) because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on deaths registered in 2020. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.

  38. Norman
    March 24, 2021

    There are only 2 or 3 certainties about this whole thing, and scores of conjectures.
    1. A new respiratory disease appeared in 2019, apparently caused by SARS Cov 2;
    2. The virus is highly infectious, and although potentially lethal, is of low mortality in general.
    3. It has come at a time when the whole world is in a state of hysteria over globalist narratives on Climate Change, economic reform and every other thing, leading to a destructive and controlling polemic, far more dangerous than the virus itself.

  39. Mark Thomas
    March 24, 2021

    Sir John,
    As soon as you mentioned the Panorama programme, my first thought was whatever they’re pushing the opposite is nearer the truth.

    1. Fred.H
      March 24, 2021

      You might be right- it was all superb, nobody died, millions of NHS operations carried on. We showed S.Korea and others how to do it. ONS all sworn to secrecy.

  40. Thirdwave
    March 24, 2021

    Don’t see the point in this blog- there are too many complexities and not enough similarities to measure anything- ie. population densities, starting times for different virus waves, transient populations and casual workers working in the hospitality and factory sectors’ there are too many differences to measure anything and contact tracing is not working either.

    1. a-tracy
      March 24, 2021

      Thirdwave, how do you know “contact tracing is not working either”? Do you know how many people were contacted this year from January 2021 to tell them to isolate because they have been contact traced? I don’t know but you seem to have some information about it? Do you know if there are any family/friend clusters in certain hospitals? If so how do you know this? Do you think the contact tracers aren’t finding the contacts because the people with serious covid infections aren’t giving them all their contacts from the previous week?

      1. Thirdwave
        March 24, 2021

        Exactly- people have secrets about their own movements and who they meet- they will not admit to anything that puts them in a bad light- for instance if they have been breaking the rules or even engaged in unlawful activity

  41. DOM
    March 24, 2021

    Stay home. Protect the NHS. Save the Tories

    1. a-tracy
      March 24, 2021

      Dom, how does this current action ‘Save the Tories’ everyone I know has had enough of this now and it is having the opposite effect on the Tory brand for:
      Tory movement:
      1. Home and family; we aren’t allowed to see our family unless we are a split family.
      2.Wealth creation; companies are still closed even those all those most at risk of covid have received a vaccine that want one.
      3. Compassion; where is the compassion for people stopped hugging a loved one on their death bed (although some people do seem to be allowed to do this).
      4. Security; a cut in the armed force?
      5. the Sanctity of human life; the decision to send untested patients from hospitals to care homes!
      6. Faith; hmm
      7. Conservation;
      8. Culture; Patriotism;
      9. Openness to the world; well we are certainly “open” at the moment and there are plenty of lawyers making a lot of money in the UK from this trade.
      10. and political service.
      Conservative Home say: The ā€œhomeā€ stands for so many things that are dear to conservatives. It represents independence from the state, for family, warmth, locality, identity, security and often ownership.

      1. Fred.H
        March 24, 2021

        oh dear. Doesn’t make for a great door-knocking pamphlet, does it!

  42. glen cullen
    March 24, 2021

    Germany (pop 84m) deaths 7 days

    290, 148, 74, 123, 195, 201, 201

    The BBC would tell us that Germany is about to get a 3rd waveā€¦..stats stats etc

    1. Know-Dice
      March 24, 2021

      Glen, there will be latency in the death figures.

      Have a look at the new daily cases here – https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

      Definitely an upward trend…

      1. glen cullen
        March 24, 2021

        thats where I got the data from !

        1. Know-Dice
          March 25, 2021

          Let’s revisit this in two weeks…

        2. glen cullen
          March 25, 2021

          41 deaths recorded today – therefore definitely a downward trend

  43. bigneil(newercomp)
    March 24, 2021

    When official figures have been given out as “per 100’000” ( who and wherever has this been used before) – and includes “Deaths within 28 days of a positive test” – no matter if it includes being run over by a bus – – or dying of a heart attack – and a doctor ordering the nurse to write down Covid on the death certificate (YES – – TRUE !!!! ) Then wool over eyes springs to mind !!!!
    Deliberately done to increase the Fear Factor – and take total control – destroying a (supposedly) free country – Lots of things have NOT matched up and not made sense.
    What date has already been written in for the next variant release???? What name will it be given ??? Or has that already been decided?
    I seriously hope you ALL get what you deserve for this. God knows what will be in the history books of the future.

  44. Qubus
    March 24, 2021

    Slightly off-topic:
    I read all the complaints about the possibility of care-workers being forced to be vaccinated. All surgeons are required to be vaccinated against hepatitis-B, but I have never heard that that is a violation of their liberty.

    1. Hat man
      March 24, 2021

      The comparison doesn’t work, Qubus. The hepatitis B vaccine was surely properly licensed after extended trialling, not just ‘approved’ on an emergency basis. So surgeons weren’t part of the experimental trial.

    2. Fred.H
      March 24, 2021

      Trains, boats, planes and buses cannot be driven/piloted by anyone colour-blind. Life’s tough.
      Careers closed.

  45. Lester
    March 24, 2021

    Iā€™m beginning to feel harassed, Iā€™ve had 5 invitations to have the (vaccine ed)a letter, 2 texts and 2 phone calls despite indicating beyond doubt that Iā€™m never, ever going to have the experimental gene therapy,(Or vaccine? Ed) it doesnā€™t prevent you from getting it or passing it on, but the sheep are rolling up their sleeves!
    I bet that this doesnā€™t get past the moderation process!

    1. Fred.H
      March 24, 2021

      Don’t expect sympathy from us when you disappear off to hospital, they might say you refused vaccine – we refuse to treat you. Good luck punk – do you feel lucky?

      1. Lester
        March 24, 2021

        I donā€™t expect any sympathy from anyone, I take responsibility for my own wellbeing, you obviously havenā€™t done any research with regard to the experimental gene therapy and prefer to join the sheep rolling up their sleeves
        A disease with a 99.5% recovery rate, economy destroyed, deaths from untreated cancer etc far exceeding Covid deaths, debt running at Ā£143.000 for each individual in the population
        Swallow the misinformation if you wish

        1. Fred.H
          March 24, 2021

          swift change of subject!!. We were considering the wisdom of having the vaccination. Trials and real world millions and millions have not produced brain dead or altered robots listlessly wandering the earth. However there might be a case if we were to focus on the political population and the locations they haunt. Possibly worrying results?
          You now want to discuss political reaction or lack of, rather than the value to the patient!

          1. Lester
            March 25, 2021

            Fred H
            The scamdemic involves all the aspects, Iā€™ve not changed the subject… you have!

          2. Fred.H
            March 25, 2021

            Lester – is your memory or reading failing you?
            You started with ‘Iā€™m never, ever going to have the experimental gene therapy’.
            Good luck, keep your head down, stay indoors, never travel anywhere.

        2. anon
          March 25, 2021

          Herd immunity protects everyone.
          Future mutations (and the virus is in billions of people) may alter the lethality from its relatively benign status. That is a consideration as it reduces the absolute numbers of virus mutations and the chance of a more lethal strain.

          The only focus should be in getting the vaccine to individuals who want it and quickly not EU failed institutions who appear to hoard unused vaccines.

  46. Stred
    March 24, 2021

    In addition to the very high numbers of PCR tests showing a high proportion of false positives, the ONS has now accepted that their figures are based on single strand testing and this is not in accordance with the manufacturers instructions or WHO guidelines. This would producer even more false positives. This was accepted in a letter to the editor of the BMJ.
    The author also believes that the same is happening in Holland. Perhaps it is elsewhere in Europe.
    The newest scare it the trial in South Africa where the AZ vaccine was only 20% more effective than the control group. However, the population of Africa is much younger on average and, until their government banned it, Ivrrmevtin was usrf for parasitic disesses. This would make the control group more likely to have resistance to covid and this could account for the small difference .

  47. Nig l
    March 24, 2021

    Te the virus. La Stampa is claiming a large quantity of vaccines due to come to the U.K. are being held in Italy under the orders of the EU.

    Both HMG and Brussels claim they were not due to come to us. They wouldnā€™t lie to us would they. What is the truth. Are we going to suffer with delays owing to Borisā€™s sucking up approach?

    Frankly I am getting bloody fed up with this olive branch softly softly we are friends approach from Boris. No we are not as the EU repeatedly demonstrate.

    We see them prevaricate on fish quotas claiming the negotiations are close to their position and no one is checking their trawlers.

    When will the Cabinet you support finally stand up for us. Bullyā€™s need to be stood up to. you are doing a good job of running away.

  48. bigneil(newercomp)
    March 24, 2021

    183 in six boats on Tuesday. Priti doing a great job ~( for the freeloaders ).

    1. Fedupsoutherner
      March 24, 2021

      News that Priti Useless is getting tough on illegals is most welcome. However, what isn’t made clear is where she is going to deport these people when there is no agreement with France. I don’t suppose France want an agreement. They will be only too happy to get rid of the illegals.

      1. J Bush
        March 24, 2021

        Fedupsoutherner, I read Patel suggested Gibraltar and the Isle of Man could have them and both countries responded with a resounding NO.

        1. Fred.H
          March 24, 2021

          We could anchor a rusty old wreck to house them in the Thames Estuary – its been done before!

          1. glen cullen
            March 24, 2021

            Some might object to calling parliament the ā€˜rusty old wreckā€™

      2. MiC
        March 24, 2021

        Only around 1% of the claimants making it to the Continent want to come to the UK.

        Most want to stay in France, Germany, etc.

        1. Fred.H
          March 24, 2021

          How many did you ask? Total fabrication – as usual.

  49. zorro
    March 24, 2021

    A lot of sensible points we have mentioned previously around general health/weight issues and resultant comorbidities in certain populations. I am absolutely convinced that East Asian populations have some innate immunity from this type of coronavirus. It is interesting that BAME groups have been affected so badly in this country but not necessarily in their home countries. I am not convinced about the public facing roles for jobs being such an issue and think that it is more about existing vitamin deficiencies and intergenerational living conditions.

    I have taken vitamin C, vitamin D3, and Zinc throughout this crisis. I only wish the government had fully encouraged such behaviour in the wider population and we might have a lesser death toll.

    It is interesting that you mention Gibraltar as top of the pops. That has only happened recently if you look at the worldometer graph for cases and deaths which is very out of kilter with other countries over the pandemic.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/gibraltar/

    They had literally nothing until Dec 2020. I wonder why they suddenly have gone to the top? Interestingly, they have also now fully vaccinated their entire adult population (first country/dependency to do so)…….

    zorro

  50. Enrico
    March 24, 2021

    Just look at our population,land mass and people travelling in whatever form and youā€™ve got the answer as to why we have had large numbers of deaths.

    1. Fedupsoutherner
      March 24, 2021

      Enrico, add our poor health to that list.

  51. Barbara
    March 24, 2021

    Covid19 Assembly, led by pathologist Dr Clare Craig, has announced that for the first time in the UK it is setting up a team which will audit all Covid deaths. They say:

    ā€œMany concerns about the coding of Covid deaths have been raised including:

    The sidelining of inquests.
    The deficiencies of tests.
    The alleged pressure on medical and care home staff to enter ā€˜Covidā€™ on certificates if a death has occurred within 28 days of a positive test.

    This follows the publication of an article by Bel Mooney about the death of her father. (A link to the article from 19/02/21 can be found here.) Since then many similar cases have been recorded by Covid19 Assembly in which a loved oneā€™s cause of death was recorded as ā€˜Covidā€™ although the deceased was never exposed to an outbreak, never showed any Covid symptoms and never tested positive to the virus. The government has not responded to calls for a public enquiry.

    Overseen by pathologist, Dr Clare Craig, the Covid19 Assembly team comprises experienced health professionals, researchers, data analysts and legal experts. They are now collecting evidence from medical staff, coroners, bereaved family members, registrars, funeral directors and mortuary staff. The aim is to ascertain to what extent (if any) official figures have been skewed by legislative changes to the registration of deaths.ā€

    1. Fred.H
      March 24, 2021

      Thousands (tens of?) were recorded as positive in early months last year when tests by NHS hardly existed. Within 28 days of death means hardly any be recorded for months.

  52. Fred.H
    March 24, 2021

    Reciprocity. A small word but massive impact.
    Should the EU be found to prevent export of ‘finished vaccine’ to the UK, then we should prevent export of vaccine manufacture items to the EU.
    A simple equal footing.

    1. glen cullen
      March 24, 2021

      Completely agree – I just wonder if Boris does

    2. anon
      March 25, 2021

      Disagree – we should do all we can to enable the production of vaccines. In the UK preferably & directly target said manufacturers to re-locate.
      We should take direct action in a different but highly visible spheres. Remove all UK public contracts with EU entities unless performed in the UK. Ditch the NI protocol.Move to WTO. Stop all payments to the EU. Close our external borders to people movements and remove lockdown. Support independence directly in member EU countries and regions. Remove any dependence on EU nations.

  53. Geoffrey Berg
    March 24, 2021

    We are being told that holding out and delay in ending lockdown measures will stop a recurrence of Covid and prevent further lockdowns etc;. This is fallacious.
    Whether there is a recurrence later in the year is beyond the control of governments or the scope of lockdown measures. It depends on unknowns such as how long the vaccines will protect people for and whether Covid reappears next winter and whether there are new more dangerous variations.
    Vaccination of those most at risk of dying has worked. So the reopenings intended for May 17 (except for foreign travel) should now be brought forward to April 12.
    Let us make hay while the sun is shining (and do what we can to restore rather than further devastate the economy). Whatever we do there is some future risk but that cannot be alleviated by prolonging the misery of lockdown now.

  54. J Bush
    March 24, 2021

    Apparently, Covid will not be eradicated, Vallance and Chris Whitty say “don’t expect it to disappear” and this is just another of their risible excuses to keep controlling the populace and destroying lives, livelihoods, businesses and mental health.

    Fact: of course covid will not be eradicated. The common cold is also a covid virus and after over 50 years of research, scientists are still unable to find a vaccine for it.

    These evil disingenuous fear mongering statements have got to stop.

    1. MiC
      March 24, 2021

      There are many different viruses which cause the “cold”.

  55. Know-Dice
    March 24, 2021

    It seems that 29 million doses of UK Astra Zenica Covid vaccine have been “found” in an Italian “Fill & Finish” facility. May be AZ should clearly say that only vaccine vials leaving an AZ factory after final quality control procedures can be considered as certified and safe to be used.

    1. Fred.H
      March 24, 2021

      A stipulation is that all are batch checked anyway. With the cultural Italian arm waving histrionics it might take some time.

    2. Fred.H
      March 24, 2021

      Turns out they are earmarked for COVAX.
      Covax hopes to deliver more than two billion doses to people in 190 countries in less than a year.
      In particular, it wants to ensure 92 poorer countries will receive access to vaccines at the same time as 98 wealthier countries. The scheme is led by the World Health Organization (WHO) and also involves the Global Vaccine Alliance (Gavi) and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (Cepi).
      Who is funding Covax and which countries might benefit?
      Covax has raised $6bn (Ā£4.3bn), but the scheme says it needs at least another $2bn (Ā£1.4bn) to meet its target for 2021. The UK government has provided $734m (Ā£548m) and the US pledged $4bn (Ā£2.93bn) in December.

  56. referral
    March 24, 2021

    Sir,

    I find your lack of discrimination most worrying. PLEASE do consider visiting swprs.org
    You speak of cases and infections and use total numbers.
    The PCR test has NO diagnostic value as underlined by its inventor and should only be used IF there are symptoms and with a cycle threshold of 35 or lower.
    I thought it would be more sensible to speak of positive test results (and further subdivide, symptomless/ minor vs hospital, ICU) and link it to the number of tests administered: the sample population may cause some variation, but it tends to be rather constant.
    (Some ed) new vaccines……manipulate the human body in a novel way to produce the spike protein itself and then react by producing antibodies. (Traditional vaccines administer a weak form of a virus or bacteria.) Words left out ed
    In contrast, there are treatments that have been used successfully and rely on know agents: HCQ Hydroxychloroquine (anti-malarial) + zinc + anti-biotic (start in the first 4 days of symptom onset, 3000 patients treated successfully (incl. cancer patients, OAP over 90, with diabetes, obesity; vladimirzelenkomd.com), ivermectin (swprs.org)
    A virus mutation is not novel but common. However, antibodies, the first line of defence, do not tend to be specific to a virus but cover variants as well. There still is a 2nd line of defence of the human body, the lymphatic system.

    I despair about how few politicians (Rt. Hon. Steve Baker is a glorious exception) are willing to stand up, not only to the power grab of the state but needless testing and vaccination of children and teenagers, let alone the grave harm and psychological damage caused to the adult population. Shocking, most sad, terrifying.

  57. Original Richard
    March 24, 2021

    I donā€™t believe any statistics from Communist countries even if their authoritarian rule allows the most draconian of lockdowns.

    Given the way the virus spreads it will affect more Western democracies with less compliant citizens and those with dense populations and mass transit systems.

    Wealthier countries will have more money to be able to test for Covid and thus show more cases.

    Wealthier countries will also have a greater percentage of older people with obesity and/or other health issues.

  58. Nick
    March 24, 2021

    Hahaha – I wouldn’t pay attention to anything Panorama, or any other BBC programme, says. The BBC are so institutionally biased against both the UK and the Conservative government that they will tell any old lies to make both of these look bad.

    The truth is that all international comparisons are meaningless. As you say, there is a huge disparity in testing, death certificates and government records. But in addition to this, the virus variants were different, as was the susceptibility of the people, and indeed their own disease-spreading habits (as an example, shaking hands is much less common in many far-eastern countries).

    So let’s forget all international comparisons and just focus on what the government here did well and badly. As I have said before, the government did two things well: PPE and vaccines. On the other hand, they did three things badly: treatments, hospital/care-home acquired infections and expansion of critical care bed provision.

  59. Fred.H
    March 24, 2021

    ā€˜TOMORROW your MP will have the opportunity to repeal the Coronavirus Act.’
    Well Sir John – will you decline again, or vote on your true judgement?
    The world waits- or at least these on here !!

    1. Caterpillar
      March 24, 2021

      Fred H,

      Indeed. Conservative MPs do not need Labour on side, all they need to do is remove their leader. Conservative MPs are 100% responsible for the authoritarian dictatorship that has swept to control in what was once a free country. The fact that they leave a leader in place that even muses about allowing businesses to ban customers that refuse to have an experimental treatment should remind Tories of what they have bevome. Conservative MPs have shown themselves to be completely unethical in their stance against liberty and human rights.The

      Conservative MPs should be reminded of the Churchill quote that has been doing the rounds the past week or so,

      ā€œIf you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves.ā€

      Tories should just dump the dictator and ser the country free, stop pretending that the situation is anything else bit dictatorship.

      1. glen cullen
        March 25, 2021

        +1

    2. beresford
      March 25, 2021

      Sky News are enthusiastically reporting that Boris is pushing the social credit passport for access to our traditional way of life, despite the recent petition of almost 300,000 against, with a ‘debate’ between two commentators who are in favour of it. If the Coronavirus Act is renewed they will be able to do this by diktat, without any scrutiny in Parliament. We thought Theresa May was the worst PM in living memory, but it seems the British people are to be betrayed by an even worse one. He represents the WEF and not his own country.

  60. forthurst
    March 24, 2021

    It is vital to understand why Asian countries have been far more successful in controlling Covid-19 than Western countries. There is the very obvious issue of cultures and monocultures versus multi-cultures, although Singapore is not a monoculture. The Chinese did have problems with a small non-indigenous group that refused to follow the mandated protocol. What is becoming clear is that firstly, Covid-19 is not going away like seasonal flue, and second, continuing to live as we are is also non-viable. It’s doubtful that flue helps to give protection in the same way as Cowpox from Smallpox the latter belong to the same viral family whereas Coronavirus and Influenza do not.
    What must change is the national approach to Covid-19. National lockdowns and national test and trace.
    The test and trace system set up this government has been a total failure and waste of money. How on Earth can it be justified

  61. glen cullen
    March 24, 2021

    184 illegal immigrants escorted to our shoresā€¦.this is truly a joke of a government

    The 3rd wave is coming across the channel

    1. Fred.H
      March 26, 2021

      It is a wave alright – waving goodbye to France.

  62. mancunius
    March 24, 2021

    A vital, no-brainer priority is for Boris to offer AZN two new factories, get the British Army to build them immediately, prestissimo – as they are the most impressively efficient workforce on God’s earth – and allow AZN to have whatever staff and equipment it requests, to vastly, swiftly, instantly increase Oxford vaccine production. That way they would be able to mothball their Halix factory and replace production for all their UK and world export needs here in this country.
    “Action this day!”

  63. Caterpillar
    March 24, 2021

    I guess this will be similar to the lists we all made months ago and yet still don’t have answers:-

    1. Geography, climate (humidity, UV etc.) time of viral entry, number of strains entering, policy&evolution interaction, luck
    2. Underlying immunity of population
    3. Underlying health of population
    4. Typical diet, supplements, exercise and hygiene habits (such as moth/nasal washes)
    5. Track and trace that targets sources vs. contacts.
    6. Natural dynamics of population (e.g. young not mixing with old etc.)
    7. Inequality and poverty
    8. Early treatment of symptoms so that immune system can do job, vs. late treatment of symptoms
    9. Treatment protocols
    10. Nosocomial transmission
    11. Care home transmission
    12. Loudness of speech and loudness of workplaces
    13. Grade of air conditioning

  64. jon livesey
    March 25, 2021

    I read that we are going to have a “win-win” deal with the EU over the supply of vaccines. Before anyone gets too cynical about this, it is really quite a big deal. It is the first major issue on which the EU has been unable to enforce its own law – as Sefcovic likes to say “The letter of EU law” – and have been forced to negotiate with the UK as equals.

    The very fact that they have agreed to this suggests to me that their situation was about to get quite a bit worse.

    1. Fred.H
      March 25, 2021

      I think we whispered…..’err – you may NOT have noticed, but we make millions of the components going into all the vaccine factories in EU…, shall we quietly back off the silly games?”

  65. Diane
    March 25, 2021

    Glen Cullen above : Plus 67 others in 3 vessels ” intercepted ” on the following day – i.e. Wednesday, yesterday, whatever intercepted is meant to tell us. ( BBC report / Dover ) 164 stopped by the French authorities though on Tuesday so equal sharing pretty much. And no doubt we’ll hear nothing further. Until the next arrivals. Lovely day today.

    1. glen cullen
      March 25, 2021

      not a good situation – not reported in media

    2. Fred.H
      March 25, 2021

      lovely day for a boat ride…and a warm reception t’other end.

  66. The Prangwizard
    March 25, 2021

    On Tuesday I was invited and booked my 2nd Covid jab for 6th April. Today, Thursday it was postponed citing supply problems. So on Tuesday supply was ok, on Thursday supply is interrupted.

    If as seems likely this the EU and their vaccine war what are you going to do ‘Boris’ – be nice to them and call them your friends again?

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