It is good news the U.K. case rate has collapsed and the death rate fallen sharply. Widespread vaccinations are clearly having a big impact. Other similar countries on the continent using lockdown without high vaccination rates have not seen anything like the same declines. That might start to change as we move into summer as it did last year before the vaccines arrived, as there was a seasonal pattern in 2020.
The UKās death rate is now the 13th highest for the pandemic to date, not the worst as some like to claim (deaths per million people on official worldometer figures). The case rate is 38th, continuing to show a higher death rate relative to cases than many other places. I still think this is more likely to be more death certificates attributing death to CV 19 when it was just present in a person with other possible causes of death, as otherwise it implies something wrong with the way the NHS treated UK patients. The EU has now had the most deaths in the world at 627,000 followed by the USA at 575,000. The current epicentres of the pandemic are Central Europe led by Hungary, Czechia and the Balkans, and Mexico, Peru and Brazil in Latin America. Mexico on her recently swollen numbers has more deaths per million than Brazil but well under the Central European levels. Italy with lockdown has overtaken the U.K. for deaths per million amongst the larger countries but remains well behind Belgium, Hungary, Czechia and some of the Balkan countries.
The figures continue to be problematic with different levels of reporting, different volumes of testing, different reliabilities on tests and with some different definitions. Nonetheless they provide some guide and have probably become more accurate over time as more testing is done and more understanding achieved. The theory that cutting contacts cuts transmission sounds very sensible. Surely the fewer people you meet and the less time you spend with them the less chance of catching the disease. However, there is no simple correlation between length and severity of lockdown with reduced disease, with some of the EU countries that have had long and strong lockdowns having bad numbers for cases and deaths. It may be their populations are more prone to the disease and still catch it despite much reduced social contact, but there is as yet no widely accepted explanation of why for example , Asia has been so much less affected than Europe.
It would be good to have more informed analysis from doctors and other experts in disease transmission on why the EU and some parts of Latin America have had much worse experiences than much of Asia. It does look as if the vaccines when offered to all those vulnerable make a huge difference to the death rate, and should allow a substantial relaxation in limits on personal freedoms and business activity.
April 13, 2021
Good morning.
There are lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics. And if you really want to plumb the depth you can always ask some Professor at the UCL for one of his models.
Who cares where we are in the League of Nothing. This bad case of the flu long ran its course and the aftermath may well prove to be far far worse than the disease.
Still. Lessons learned and all that.
/sarc
April 13, 2021
+ a few million!
April 13, 2021
++++1
April 13, 2021
Just been reading that the Chinese vaccine isn’t very good by their own admission.
Chile has been using this vaccine and it’s made very little difference.
There is no excuse for keeping us prisoners any more.
April 13, 2021
@Mark B; Non so blind as those who choose not to see I guess. Yet you expect others to believe you are not in total denial of this highly dangerous virus that has killed so many, in some countries in addition to those who have actually due of the usual seasonal Flu. But you are correct on one thing, there are “lies and damned lies”, just ask a political agitator on the hard right whose only thoughts are for their own or others continued personal wealth or fortune, not the health of others.
April 13, 2021
A highly dangerous disease kills a large percentage of all of those who come into contact with it, regardless of age and condition.
This one simply doesn’t and there are now many vaccines.
April 13, 2021
@NLA; Thanks, your reply proved my point nicely, non so blind as those who choose not to see. š
April 13, 2021
Mark,
It does provide cover for Johnson to capitulate to EU demands that the UK follow its regulations and rules on food to dispense with border checks in N.Ireland! So that would not even be Brino but a full remain and vassalage!
April 13, 2021
As planned. It is to give the Remainers an argument to rejoining. Trouble is, CV19 and the EU’s behaviour has done them no good.
April 13, 2021
A good summary. It is very good new that the vaccines appear to be very safe and effective. They should be rolled out (one vaccine first and given to men slightly younger than women in as many countries as possible and as quickly as possible) that is the best way to save as many lives as possible while the vaccine is still in short supply. The UK should certainly open up now as the lock down is surely killing far more than it is saving.
Current excess deaths the year starting after the 2020 spring bulge in deaths (July) are likely to end up at under 5% or so up on the 5 year average. Entirely within the normal range and with a higher population. We currently have a huge over reaction.
Some figure suggest that about 1/3 of people admitted to NHS hospitals actually contracted Covid while in them, an appalling record. The policy of dumping patient untested into care homes was surely criminal? As was the failure to adjust vaccination order to reflect gender risk that has killed 1000+ this year. The NHS were also slow to use the several drugs that we now know to be very effective. They should have been more innovative earlier with these as little to lose. Vitamin D should certainly have been encouraged earlier almost nothing to lose here as clearly v. safe and very cheap?
The pandemic planning, done under Jeremy Hunt, was clearly appalling in failing to ensure we could make equipment such as PPE locally and quickly. And at preventing in hospital cross infections and spreading to care homes.
April 13, 2021
And here we go with today’s chapter(s) of The World According To Lifelogic.
Thank you, we all know how you feel about gender disparity regarding the delivery of the vaccine, but perhaps a constant hammering at the door of the Ministry of Health might be more effective than your constant iterations on a relatively minor blog (apologies, Sir John)? Are you aware that the UK government has already recommended giving the very vulnerable 4 months’ free supply of Vit D and that those who are likely to be deficient should be taking it? Given your understandable dislike of over-intrusive government, surely people should be expected to behave like adults and buy their own vitamin and mineral supplements? Finally, do you have any idea of how many infectious diseases are spread by sick people being treated in hospital, simply because when you necessarily concentrate a lot of vulnerable people on one site, cross-infection is almost inevitable?
April 13, 2021
Your hindsight expertise 100% accurate yet again.
April 13, 2021
It was known very early on that this disease affected the aged disproportionately so our mother got focused protection in her own home once it hit Italy, which seems to have worked despite her having diabetes, high blood pressure and all sorts of other illnesses.
Shortly after we knew those with obesity and high blood pressure were hit disproportionately too. This is our major difference with Asia. They are generally thinner than we are.
There are always those who choose to see our government as the worst in the CV-19 league tables but this crisis isn’t over yet and if we’re going to insist on participating in silly league tables then I’d say we’re doing pretty well now.
What I do disagree with is continued lockdown and the continued use of infection rates now that the death rates have decoupled from them.
Many powers have been given to the administrative class and they seem most reluctant to relinquish them.
There are types out there with a bossy, nannying disposition and they need putting back in their boxes.
And where are the graphs and assessments of lockdown deaths and illnesses (mental and physical) in order to make correct policy decisions ? I read a report today that 300,000 cancer diagnosis will have been missed because of people avoiding hospitals.
Social distancing and masks are not normal, they should never become the new normal and no, Mr Hancock. We are definitely NOT used to them.
Many have had the living daylights scared out of them by government messaging and now need their confidence rebuilt.
This vaccine was the one and last shot. Many of us have taken it without needing it and with great trepidation – an experimental and synthetic concoction – on the promise that this was the only route back to normality.
That had better be so. Whether it works or not.
We cannot go on like this.
April 13, 2021
āIt would be good to have more informed analysisā
Yes but that is unlikely to happen.
Instead the whole issue is treated as some sort of proxy war against the EU.
The media mostly sing from the same hymn sheet. Individuals diverging from the official line are often written off as ācovidiotsā or ignored. I get a sense that some politicians and officials rather enjoy wielding extra power over citizens.
April 13, 2021
Below is a table from the ONS following a freedom of information request. The original request was for 30 years, but mindful of the size I have reduced it to 20 years, in the hope you will approve this comment.
Two things stand out from this information
1. I, like a growing number of people question where is this ‘pandemic’? The State has never closed the Nation down and forced draconian rules on the population before. See death figures for 2010 and earlier.
2. If the government was more honest about the actual number of people in this country, would it not be even harder to fear monger ‘pandemic’?
Year No of deaths Pop. Crude mortality rate Age-standardised mortality
(1000’s) (per 100,000 pop) rate (per 100,000 pop)
2020 608,002 59,829 1,016.20 1,043.50
2019 530,841 59,440 893.1 925
2018 541,589 59,116 916.1 965.4
2017 533,253 58,745 907.7 965.3
2016 525,048 58,381 899.3 966.9
2015 529,655 57,885 915 993.2
2014 501,424 57,409 873.4 953
2013 506,790 56,948 889.9 985.9
2012 499,331 56,568 882.7 987.4
2011 484,367 56,171 862.3 978.6
2010 493,242 55,692 885.7 1,017.10
2009 491,348 55,235 889.6 1,033.80
2008 509,090 54,842 928.3 1,091.90
2007 504,052 54,387 926.8 1,091.80
2006 502,599 53,951 931.6 1,104.30
2005 512,993 53,575 957.5 1,143.80
2004 514,250 53,152 967.5 1,163.00
2003 539,151 52,863 1,019.90 1,232.10
2002 535,356 52,602 1,017.70 1,231.30
2001 532,498 52,360 1,017.00 1,236.20
2000 537,877 52,140 1,031.60 1,266.40
April 13, 2021
I gather that Taiwan is head and shoulders above most of the world in the management of this crisis. Too bad that it isn’t allowed to play a full part in the WHO.
P.S. Popped out for an al fresco pizza last night – and jolly al fresco it was too. The weather will ensure that we have a ‘soft opening’ and a great many exposure cases.
April 13, 2021
I see China are sending over to Taiwan their military aircraft to learn how they do it
April 13, 2021
Keep vaccinating until we have herd immunity would seem to be the internal answer for the UK.
Lessons to be learnt include, you cannot trust UK government to come up with answers when the problems are routed in science or engineering. One can only hope that government are able to offer intelligent support. In the case of a pandemic don’t expect government to get it right first time. The EU are absolutely untrustworthy, the less dependency we have upon them the better, whatever the subject. In the strategic interests of the UK, aim at scientific and engineering independance. Nobody owes us a living, some like the EU are possitively malicious, but their financial toxicity holds the seeds of their failure. Do not mourn the City’s reduced involvement with them. Leave others or the EU themselves to pick up the tab. Learn from the life of HRH the Duke of Edinburgh and kick political social engineering, PC, into touch. There seemed to be enough in Parliament yesterday who recognised the folly of it.
Learn from history. At the end of the ninteenth and begining of the twentieth century the then government come up with the idea of walking in front of an automobile waving a red flag, lest they frightened the horses. German and French manufacturers created the automobile industry. Remember this when you in government drive everyone into inadequate all electric transport.
April 13, 2021
“Surely the fewer people you meet and the less time you spend with them the less chance of catching the disease.”
That is only true once you have controlled for other factors such as, for instance, the prevalence of infection in the population, the weather, the age of the people you meet, the number of people in the population who have been vaccinated and the level of herd immunity in the population (antibodies are not the only way of fighting the infection). Also, the sensitivity of the testing you use for detecting whether you have “caught the disease”. Asymptomatic infections are extraordinarily difficult to define!
I am not aware of any conclusive scientific evidence that lockdowns have had any cost beneficial impact on rate of infection anywhere in the world once you have controlled for other factors such as those mentioned above.
April 13, 2021
Boris on Sky today saying that the vast reduction in infections so far has been achieved because of the lockdown and not because of the success of the vaccination program.
Any evidence for this?
Any evidence that it wasn’t simply the good weather?
Or is Boris simply downplaying the effectiveness of the vaccination to ward of pressure to forego lockdown?
April 14, 2021
A German health minister was asked to cite supporting evidence for the efficacy of lockdowns in a press conference a couple of days ago, and he was completely unable to do so, refusing to give a proper answer several times.
April 13, 2021
Let’s not forget the sacrifice made by young people in all this. They have had their education severely damaged, their options for new employment reduced and been unable to go courting, all for a disease which doesn’t particularly affect them, without any choice in the matter of restrictions. Their sacrifice continues, as votes ensures the older generation don’t pay the cost of the debt taken on, but they will have to bear the interest payments via their taxes for the rest of their lives.
April 13, 2021
+1
April 13, 2021
You say “It would be good to have more informed analysis from doctors and other experts in disease transmission on why the EU and some parts of Latin America have had much worse experiences than much of Asia.”
Indeed it would be good. I suspect there must have been some prior immunity in the Asian populations. Also why was it that in the UK 3% (of positive cases) died where in Japan only 0.7% did. This is a huge difference. Over 90,000 fewer CV death in the UK had the NHS & UK healthcare managed to matched this figure. Plus we had far higher numbers of infections too.
April 13, 2021
Funny about the patient-dumping into care homes.
They appear to have done exactly the same in various other countries.
What is this? A game of Simon Says?
Yet it is the least obvious thing to do. As in big mistake.
International mind melding?
Or more like blankets from smallpox hospitals?
April 13, 2021
Basically, the buddhist countries have done by far and away the best, and right-wing individualistic ones the worst.
It’s not hard to see why.
April 13, 2021
Diet ?
April 13, 2021
Life expectancy a lot lower than the right wing countries ? 65 to our 78 ???
How many vaccines have Buddhist countries created ?
April 14, 2021
If everyone had done what they did then there would have been no need because the virus would have been ERADICATED.
April 14, 2021
piffle.
April 13, 2021
Twaddle MiC
Are France, Italy Belgium Spain right wing individualistic countries?
April 14, 2021
Yes.
April 14, 2021
MiC
Calling decent democratic EU member nations like France right wing individualistic nations is ridiculous.
But if you are extremely left wing I suppose every nation other than North Korea, Cuba and Venezuela appears right wing to you.
April 13, 2021
Like Belgium?
April 14, 2021
Martin – Oh don’t be bashful – tell us why!
April 14, 2021
Meditation?
April 14, 2021
chanting ‘I won’t catch it, I won’t catch it ‘ probably helps.
April 13, 2021
Off topic, here is a comment I have just posted on an article in the Irish News headed:
“‘Significant differences’ remain over NI Protocol despite renewed UK/EU talks”
https://www.irishnews.com/news/brexit/2021/04/13/news/-significant-differences-remain-over-ni-protocol-despite-renewed-uk-eu-talks-2285729/
I start by quoting a sentence from the article:
“The Northern Ireland Protocol, designed to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland, has resulted in additional checks on goods flowing across the Irish Sea to ensure they comply with EU rules.”
And carry on as follows:
“Then clearly the protocol has failed in its design purpose, because Belfast is indisputably on the island of Ireland and the infrastructure installed there for those “additional checks on goods” flowing in would certainly be condemned as a “hard border” if it was dismantled and transferred to the border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic.
Calling this a “sea border” does not alter the fact that the checks are carried out on dry land, and basically what has happened is that the “hard border” infrastructure that the Irish Republic might have installed on its side of the land border with Northern Ireland has instead been installed in Northern Ireland at the coast facing towards Great Britain.”
I wonder if Conservative and Unionist MPs are going to do something about this.
April 13, 2021
Your phrase about the low transmission in the Summer is worrying.
We have locked down lengthily following the zero Covid strategy pursued by all four UK administrations and transmission rates have fallen. What is the plan for September – December ’21 when hospitals start filing up again?
Why are tourists (and boat people) allowed to enter our country without quarantine?
April 14, 2021
Given our vaccination programme, the hospitals won’t start filling up again. The two key questions for government today are: (1) how concerned should it be about COVID spreading; and (2) how does it keep the lid on new variants, whether imported or home-grown?
April 13, 2021
Where did that PCR article go?
April 13, 2021
Indeed, and pertinently it would be interesting to know how an island like GB with one governing body came to succumb so badly from this, when many other islands seem to have avoided the worst. With our vast Health and Safety Industry and its associated EU regulations, why weren’t we ready in some way for this?
During the teeth of this pandemic, why was Ministers’ time being wasted entertaining the wishes of a former Prime Minister who was being paid to extract taxpayers’ cash?
April 13, 2021
It might be more to the point to consider how we recover from this devastation.
Recover from the ludicrous response to a virus…NOT from a virus.
I sincerely hope that much and urgent attention is being given to making certain that every hospital ( including new, local one) can and will cope with governmentās perceived threat of any future virus.
Like right now…at this very moment…hands to the pump and all that.
Let us NEVER again see the doom-laden headlines āNHS On the Brinkā,as we have for many, many years.
Chuck some āooky money at it! Plenty of that sloshing around!
April 13, 2021
The EU made a fuss early on about the efficacy of the Oxford vaccine.
China currently has five vaccines in use in its campaign: three inactivated-virus vaccines manufactured by Sinovac and Sinopharm, a one-shot vaccine from CanSino and a vaccine developed by Gaoās team and pharmaceutical company Anhui Zhifei Longcom. Concerns have been raised about the efficacy of the China-developed vaccines before, with Sinovacās CoronaVac, the most widely used of Chinaās vaccines, appearing to offer just 50.4% protection during late stage trials at the Butantan Institute in Brazil, the BBC reports. While Sinovacās āperformance was better in Indonesia and Turkeyā, preliminary trial results from Brazil showed that when two shots of the Sinovac vaccine were given less than three weeks apart, its effectiveness was 49.1%, ābelow the 50% threshold set by the World Health Organizationā, Al Jazeera reports.
Like Chinese products in general, found to be poor quality.
April 13, 2021
Somewhat of a contradiction today John.
“The theory of cutting contacts cuts transmission is very sensible.”
“However there is no simple correlation between length and severity of lockdown with reduced disease”
On the contrary, I think those who could, were able, did lockdown and stuck within the rules, proved lockdowns do actually work.
The problem was that many could not lock down for very many reasons, be it so called key workers, the need for work and finance, multigenerational households, and a whole host of other sensible inescapable reasons, we also of course had a few of the bloody minded refuseniks, but it meant that the lockdown was not anywhere near to being 100% effective, and it could never be as you still need the basic services to function.
All those who I know who could and were able to take lockdown rules seriously, and minimised contact during periods when lockdowns were not even in place, escaped infection.
April 13, 2021
Don’t know how to break it to you Mr Redwood but flu always plummets at this time of year. Nothing to do with dna altering vaccines that nobody even claims are effective- not even the makers. As for the statistics you quote LOL. I’ve never seen such grossly manipulated and exaggerated numbers outside of a Soviet Union Five Year Plan. When you use tests that are hugely less accurate than tossing a coin to label every death as caused by covid and never perform an autopsy you can make the numbers say anything you want.
Cut out the government propaganda and stand up for truth and your constituents.
April 13, 2021
Alan, DNA altering vaccines? You’ve been reading too many comic books.
April 13, 2021
No he has not and it is not a vaccine. You have been listening to too much government propaganda. Control of the masses.
April 13, 2021
+1
April 13, 2021
While we continue to use a failed testing process that even the inventor claimed was not suitable, the more it will look like the problem is worse than it is.
Even the death statistics are suspect – it has been reported that doctors are made to uses CV as the reason of death even when complicating factors suggest other reasons even if the patient had the virus.
UK government figures suggest the overall people dying last year was comparable to numbers of the last 30 years.
It is impossible to know how the ‘numbers’ in other countries vary so greatly – Perhaps they also have inappropriate ways of estimation.
There are plenty of studies being ignored by governments that would improve the situation – not only ignored but people are penalised for offering an alternate view to the official one. We are entering dangerous times when the truth is actively being suppressed.
Doctors are indeed speaking out – but we shouldn’t expect to hear about them on the MSM.
The really interesting thing is that there are a growing number of court cases pending against governments, including the UK. Governments are being charged with not just bad practice, but mal-practice…. We can only hope the justice systems do not squash these attempts at putting things right.
April 13, 2021
As you say, SJR, death certificates have attributed death to CV 19 when it was just present in a person with other possible causes of death. But that was done very widely in other countries. The ‘Covid deaths’ data pretty much across the world are junk, I’m afraid. Only the total mortality figures can really be believed, and tell us anything significant. But how far COVID-19 was the cause of excess mortality remains unknown, since health authorities have generally refused to conduct autopsies on ‘Covid’ deaths. Where this was nevertheless done, as in a hospital in Hamburg last year, ALL deaths in that hospital were attributable to other causes, serious medical conditions that the patients had. Then there’s the so far unknown impact of lockdown deaths due to denial of medical attention.
I can’t agree, though, that a better understanding has been achieved ‘as more testing has been done’. The main test used, the PCR, is a crock. Even the WHO has warned that it is being used irresponsibly, often far above the cycle threshold that would give any meaningful results. I seem to recall you posted something about this a few days ago, but the post then disappeared, rather unusually.
April 13, 2021
And in other news the very grand and self important Project for Modern Democracy has come out with its report on Overseas Aid sponsored by Bill Gates.
It will be no surprise that itās main finding is that we must revert our percentage spend back to the previous limit dressed up in all sorts of jargon to prove its spent efficiently.
The give away is it warns against shallow populism. So once again the privileged self important views are correct, the rest of āthe plebsā,to be ignored.
So itās name, Modern Democracy is an oxymoron. Modern yes, democratic, no.
April 13, 2021
The EU is not a country. It is 27 countries. Of course those 27 countries have a higher combined death rate than 1 country.
The fact that there are 27 of them partly explains why EU countries have carried out significantly more vaccinations than the UK has too.
And they have done this despite the failure of British company AstraZeneca to fulfil its promises. And despite the fact that EU countries have been the main suppliers of vaccines to much of the world – exporting 100m of them whilst the US has exported nothing and the UK has also had in place a defacto vaccine export ban. Though has claimed otherwise.
This shocking behaviour by the US and U.K. simply prolongs the global pandemic and guarantees more people will die. But we understand the Tories donāt care if people die in other countries. Though they spent an entire day in Parliament yesterday fawning over one old man who died here. Longer than they spent scrutinising their Brexit trade deal mess – that erected massive barriers to trade damaging millions of livelihoods and lives.
Reply Why should the EU have a higher death rate than a single country? Because it mishandles the situation?
April 13, 2021
I think it fair to call the EU a country and then compare deaths pro rata to the US per million.
April 13, 2021
The āEUā has not exported vaccines, companies which have operations in the EU have done so – having used ingredients exported from lots of other countries, such as the U.K.
If AZ had not met the terms of its contract the EU would have sued it in the Belgian courts, the agreement being under Belgian law. The EU has made a fool of itself over this episode as is widely recognised, in particular by a large majority of citizens in EU countries.
April 14, 2021
It is the NHS which has handled vaccination in the UK, not its government.
Thank goodness.
April 14, 2021
The EU has acted as the government of the countries regarding the vaccine. Has it not?
Surely it is up to the private companies making the vaccine who the sell it to. Presumably they sell it to people who have ordered it.
April 14, 2021
Mathematically it is impossible for an average to be higher than the maximum of the dataset.
April 13, 2021
And more cowardice from the government. Sunak meant to take questions in the Commons puts up another Minister instead to avoid questions about Greensill.
April 13, 2021
OFT – today the media is reporting that the EU will ease the NI situation if the UK accepts EU rule, laws and regulation on agri/food standards. As with fish they still want to be in control of the internal UK governments management. Where are they going to impose the authority next. If the EU is in charge we don’t need the HoC, they wont be doing anything.
If the EU was to accept the Belfast Agreement we would also get the same result.
April 13, 2021
Maybe we need a referendum to sort this out……oh, just remembered we had one
April 13, 2021
Anyone would think the Government is trying to boost the Covid numbers by issuing free Covid test kits and testing school kids. We know there are many false positives being recorded because of the high level of cycle refreshes being carried out. Any CR above 30 can pick up dead Covid cells and we are testing to 45 which is not recommended.
Looking at the latest ONS death figures, flu is killing far more people now than Covid. In Week 12, deaths involving COVID-19 accounted for 7.2% of all deaths in England and Wales. There were 719 deaths involving COVID-19 yet 1,464 deaths involved Influenza and Pneumonia.
In Week 12, the number of deaths registered in England and Wales was 5.0% below the five-year average (528 fewer deaths); this is the third consecutive week that deaths have been below the five-year average.
The appalling collateral damage to people in terms of untreated cancer, diabetes, heart problem, missed flu vaccinations etc. has yet to be counted. Not to mention the ruination of many people’s livelihoods.
Boris says we have to follow the data. Well, the data shows Covid is now under control. I may be a cynic but some people are making a lot of money out of this pandemic and seem to want it to continue. Others see it as a way to boost their political poll ratings.
April 13, 2021
+1
April 14, 2021
Last Friday the number of cases was reduced by over 8,000, reflecting lateral flow tests that were countered by negative PCR tests. It was effectively an admission of false positives in lateral flow tests. We need some honesty about that statistic.
April 13, 2021
Whilst it is good news that the case rates and death rates have fallen, surely the most important stat is the number in hospital, currently well below 3,000 and falling. We are all ill from time to time but it normally only becomes serious if it becomes a hospital admission. I consider that the hospital stats need far more prominence.
From this perpective, the NHS has already been “saved”.
April 13, 2021
1) “the death rate fallen sharply. Widespread vaccinations are clearly having a big impact.”
2) “continuing to show a higher death rate relative to cases than many other places. I still think this is more likely to be more death certificates attributing death to CV 19 when it was just present in a person with other possible causes of death, as otherwise it implies something wrong with the way the NHS treated UK patients.”
How confident are you that the death rate has fallen sharply, if you can also apparently think that a higher death rate is “more likely” to be the result of death certificates attributing death to CV 19 when it was “just present” in a person?
April 13, 2021
Lambeth and Wandsworth being surge tested for the South African Covid variant.
The Government decides to red zone Pakistan but allows a week for British people to get back here, where we see chaotic scenes in airports in Pakistan as they do. How did all these people get over there when we have been in lock down for months with threats of vast fines if we cannot justify our journey? And will they be subject to quarantine, testing and everything else?
We hear of a tourist from Peru wandering into country.
On the one had we have had grotesque restrictions on our liberty, while on the other utter complacency at managing our borders . The Government seem to be doing everything they can to get every single Covid variant to be represented here. Is that the new diversity policy ?
April 13, 2021
Worth noting that PHE have estimated that UKās vaccination programme has saved 10,400 lives so far. So a great benefit from Brexit already, and still increasing given the EUās negligent and inept performance. I have a relative in the EU who is 76 and only had their first shot last week. Appalling incompetence.
April 13, 2021
Don’t know what anything has to do with brexit- whether we were in or out of the EU we were always free to do our own thing especially as regards vaccination. The EU is not a country but acted as a club where it sought to source vacine for its members which was good for some countries but didn’t suit some others- they were not all bound to follow? The EU side an economic bloc was slower in starting up allright because it didn’t put the vacine rollout at the top of its list- they didn’t see it as a race for oneupmanship or to show whether brexit ws right ir wrong- am sure they have other things to deal with as well
April 13, 2021
The handling by your out of control PM and cabinet has been non existent John
Our MPs have and are letting us down badly
This scamdemic has wrecked jobs and businesses across the UK . If you lot were losing your jobs . Some commonsense
might have emerged . And now Covid Passports !!!!!! STOP.
April 13, 2021
++1
April 13, 2021
The real conspiracy theorists believe that their government cares about them, the media would never mislead or lie to them and the pharmaceutical industry that makes billions from sickness wants to cure them.
April 14, 2021
Yes, now sort yourselves out.
April 13, 2021
What haunts me about this pandemic is the misuse of data
Why include deaths of people who may have had a dubious positive covid test result within 28 days and died of something unrelated ?
Why the daily brief concentrated on infection rates and never recovery rates or death rates ?
Why the daily brief never concentrated on the age range of those infected by dubious covid test ?
Why did this government want to portray the data figures as high, always indicating worst case scenario while continuing to use outdated dubious modelling ?
Why wasnāt the media never questioned when they reported misleading alarming news ?
When the dust is settle it will be interesting to see if weāve trashed our economy for nothing worst than the annual flu ?
April 13, 2021
I believe that you will right, and neither the Government nor the MSM want the dust to settle.
April 13, 2021
Glen Cullen – Control of the masses.
April 13, 2021
I too have doubts over the number of deaths ‘from’ covid. I think that the net used to record C.O.D. had a very small mesh. We will only get a more realistic number by calculating the number of excess deaths.
April 13, 2021
Excess deaths not attributed ‘of’ Covid should be ’caused because of lockdown.’
April 13, 2021
Many of the points you touch on, Sir John, are answered in a letter and report by the World Doctors Alliance (see their website, and open letter to governments of the world). If what these medics say is half true, we have been massively misled, and the collateral damage done by lockdown alone has harmed many more than those it has protected. The scariest thing is the way dissent is being censored, deaths spuriously assigned, and vaccine problems kicked into touch. As with Climate Alarmism, the herd believes what it wants to believe, and anyone who tries to turn it back from the cliff-edge is flattened in the stampede.
April 13, 2021
As an old man with poor lung function, I just did the Oxford risk calculator and was 91% of the way to most at risk of catching and dying of covid. Despite this, my chance was only 1 in 827. It makes me wonder whether shutting the country down for over s year was worth it.
April 13, 2021
1/4 It was only in 2005 that Dr Barry Marshall was awarded a Nobel prize for his work on H. Pylori and ulcers. This should be sufficient warning for politicians whether considering SARS-CoV2 or climate science to seek to open up viewpoints and not behave as though āthe scienceā is settled, to not make dramatic policy decisions to nudge (command and control).
I am honestly astounded that M.P.s and media alike have such a limited experience of the current scientific system to appreciate that consensus in science is an undesirable herd immunity . It is difficult for any sceptical / innovative / alternative idea to break through when there is perhaps some intended, but definitely vast unintended suppression. The combination of a scientific community with few susceptible to new ideas and the suppression, i.e. driving R below one, of alternative ideas is dangerous.
April 13, 2021
Top marks, Caterpillar, for your poignant and timely reference to Dr. Marshall’s endeavours which the scientific ‘establishment’ was so reluctant to recognise for so long – thank you.
April 14, 2021
Once upon a time there were electrons, neutrons and protons. A few decades later there are more elementary particles in the standard model than letters in the alphabet where electrons are leptons while neutrons and protons are actually hadrons/baryons/quarks and physicists have discovered yet another anomaly, with the Higgs Boson.
I am not at all surprised politicians and administrators cannot grasp science, let alone engineering, are confused and frantically grasp for simplistic certainty when members of the academic community lead the way. It is so much easier being on a bandwagon with the nurturing comfort of a crowd no matter how mistaken or misguided.
April 13, 2021
2/4 I trust the Government has used the vaccination program as an opportunity to collect blood samples for future T-cell assays to determine specific SARS-CoV2 and separate cross-reactive responses. For any international comparison this background is needed. Though we might be in a fortunate position of having existing blood donations and an unvaccinated population, I would think the sooner the better on such studies now that appropriate techniques have been developed. A comparative study between U.K., Japan, Taiwan and New Zealand would be an informative start.
On death rates, the identification of which people are more vulnerable to serious effects (besides existing cross-reactive immunity studies a above) remains important for general health. For more than the past year, there have been voices attempting to draw attention to immunosenescence (and in particular T-cell immunosenescence) together with general levels of health, these issues being important even within the vaccination focus of Government policy. For unknown reasons, voices with these areas of expertise have been muffled.
April 13, 2021
3/4 On the dynamics of transmission, both policy and implementation remain surprising. The specific instances of transferring infectives into care homes, and the apparent largescale, though not in all hospitals, nosocomial transmission needs to be evaluated. The widespread use of masks remains highly questionable because of the combination of associated behavioural changes, the potentially modified particulate flow and the non-human primate studies indicating smaller particulates at maximum infection, irrespective of the known negative issues of masks. The apparent focus of the costly track and trace on new contacts with a known positive remains odd (if true), though possibly a relevant approach in pursuing a zero policy towards the tail of a serious disease epidemic, it was not the approach for the beginning of the current epidemic ā at least it is reported that those countries triangulating to āsuper-spreadersā were more affective in flattening. In this vein, the learning that high BMI-years people vastly spread more particulates should be further investigated for relevance in any future (truly serious) epidemic.
April 13, 2021
4/4 Early treatment protocols have apparently been passed over in England, and this decision needs to be swiftly investigated as do many aspects of the last 12-18 months ā inquiry should really have been running in parallel, disappointingly this Govt is taking the long grass approach to learning.
April 13, 2021
One wonders if the chief means of Cv19 transmission is really the same as viral pneumonia and flu. Those aerosol transmitted diseases have been almost totally suppressed by masks, distancing, sanitisers and lockdowns, but Cv19 seems resistant to those measures.
Let’s hope the inevitable inquiry seeks an answer. Have we been fighting the right battle?
JF
April 13, 2021
No prevention measures are resistant to clowns who ignore them in their millions.
April 13, 2021
I have seen everyone adhering to the rules wherever I went.
And whenever I heard someone in a BBC street interview say “… the clowns who ignore the rules are causing it.” I wonder why the BBC interview team didn’t find one of these ‘clowns’ and ask why they weren’t wearing a mask. Could it be that there weren’t actually any clowns ?
April 14, 2021
The BBC should have prefaced the Downing St afternoon trio with ‘Bring in the Clowns’.
Then they saw the error of their ways and introduced Prof J.Van Tam.
April 13, 2021
I read an interesting article about the AstraZeneca jab – and how US authorities do not want it.
They hope AstraZeneca doesnāt apply for approval in the US as it will put America in a difficult position. They do not want it and have better vaccines available.
What I havenāt noticed is the Brexitist outrage at the US position. Why is this?
April 13, 2021
…and some would say its only Russia’s covid ‘Sputnik V’ vaccine sales team – others more enlightened are worried
April 13, 2021
don’t know how my reply ended up here – it should be a reply to GaryK
April 13, 2021
As you write Andy , the Johnson and Johnson vaccine has been paused due to blood clots.
The only reason AZ is being trashed is because it’s on a not for profit basis.
Big pharma are furious as it deprives the of billions.
Pfizer have just ramped up the price 50% for future EU orders.
April 13, 2021
Because AZ is being sold at cost, a fraction of the price US pharma’s are selling their jabs at.
April 13, 2021
perhaps the ones you write about were waiting for your latest piece of fiction, we find it difficult to read minds you see?
Is the position you claim rather like the EU ‘don’t want our people to live because the solution is UK invented’?
April 13, 2021
Strange as the Johnson and Johnson jab is under scrutiny now because of blood clots.
April 13, 2021
They now have exactly the same problem with the J & J vaccine.
April 13, 2021
It is up to them Andy
They are an independent democratic nation.
A difficult thing for you to fully understand.
April 13, 2021
As usual, you are tying too hard. If the US “doesn’t want” the AZ vaccine, they can just not approve it. And if they approve it, you can hardly say they they “don’t want” it.
In other words, the only facts are “approve” and “don’t approve”. Everything else is just your familiar obsession with smearing everything to do with the UK.
April 13, 2021
I see that the UK has dropped down to 45th on the Worldometers’ rankings for ‘Serious/Critical’ COVID cases, swapping position with EU member, and much smaller, Sweden, which now moves up to 43rd. Will you now congratulate the government on its vaccination programme?
April 13, 2021
It is the NHS’s vaccination program, NOT the Government’s.
April 13, 2021
And all the NHS/PHE problems and failings are the government’s ?
(I believe the military were involved in this somewhere too)
April 14, 2021
It isnt the NHS that approves the vaccine nor funds the purchase of the vaccine.
April 13, 2021
No question. The way Boris’s team have been looking ahead and doing the right things while everyone was yelling at them, has been very impressive.
April 13, 2021
What Brexit outrage, we can read, Fauci said they had enough vaccine.
April 13, 2021
Itās called free choice. No one is forcing any country to buy the AZ vaccine.
April 13, 2021
But the USA, like other countries, is pausing the Johnson&Johnson vaccine too, for the same reasons as the pause in the AZ vaccine: a possible though very rare problem of blood-clotting being observed.
April 13, 2021
Couldnāt care less if the USA doesnāt want the not for profit Astra Zeneca vaccine. More for us. It seems the vaccines have become political footballs.
April 13, 2021
+1
April 13, 2021
US is a sovereign country, it can do what it wants. You want a supranational organisation to dictate everything to member states. How has that worked out for its vaccine rollout programme?
April 13, 2021
@Andy; Did you not listen to the interview with Dr Fauci On the BBC Radio 4’s Today programme this morning (Tues), I suspect not, as you would not have posted such a diatribe of misinformed nonsense and lies.
The problem with the EU supervised vaccine roll out has nothing to do with the make or type of vaccine, they can’t even distribute the Pfizer-BioNTech product…
April 13, 2021
Only when we look at the excess death statistics in a rational way will we understand the impact of the virus and the response of governments worldwide. The vaccines are great for the vulnerable but we are forgetting that the vast majority of healthy people survive infection by the virus without hospitalisation. Also there are many treatments that if given appropriately early enough enable people to recover quickly and fully. The biggest problem we face is the continuing hysteria and fear-mongering, exacerbated by a focus on testing for the virus rather than concentrating on the fact that more and more of us have antibodies and t-cell immunity. Prior immunity is likely to explain much of the apparent ease with which some countries, e.g. Japan, have coped with the virus.
April 13, 2021
@Rachel Chandler; “we are forgetting that the vast majority of healthy people survive infection by the virus without hospitalisation.”
No one is forgetting anything, because the above is simply not true, and is even less true with the highly infectious “Kent/English” variant, as the USA is finding out, the UK has missed that bullet (for now at least) but who knows, and if either the South African or Brazilian variants becomes established all bets are off, even with the current vaccines.
” Japan, have coped with the virus.”
That would be why infections are on the rise again in Japan, many believing the Olympics should be cancelled then… The only two countries who appear to have coped well are Australia and NZ, but then both closed their borders very early, both imposed strict isolation for those arriving or testing positive, both have had very strict lockdowns as and when needed, sometimes with just hours notice etc.
April 13, 2021
+1
April 13, 2021
But our PM has just said the vaccines have nothing to do with the drop – it is all down to lockdown, according to the government.
āBoris Johnson has warned that the reduction in coronavirus infections, hospitalisations and deaths “has not been achieved” by the rollout of COVID vaccines.ā
(Greg Heffer, political reporter, Sky)
April 13, 2021
Well I am now confused……next they’ll be telling us the rise in co2 isn’t cars in the UK but power stations in China !
April 14, 2021
@glen cullen; Nothing to be confused about, it really is quite simply IF you actually understand what a vaccine is and is not! The lockdown did reduced the numbers being infected by reducing the opportunity for the virus to infect. The vaccine is not a post Covid infection treatment, in fact the vaccine doesn’t actually stop someone becoming infected, just the the bodies ability to fight the viral infection -in other words, improve the outcome for the patient.
April 14, 2021
there does appear to be some evidence that after vaccine you are contagious for fewer days, thus reducing opportunity to infect others. The contra argument might be without vaccination you may well be confined to home really ill, but after vaccine you may be out there living normally.
April 13, 2021
Boris is completely confused when people want that, and completely authoritative when people want that. It’s called confirmation bias.
April 13, 2021
@LifeLogic
Do you never tire of saying the same thing over and over and over again? We get it. Men should have been vaccinated before women of the same age. I have had a tee shirt printed with that message front and back. My wife managed to dissuade me from getting it tattooed on my chest. Please give it a rest.
April 13, 2021
I don’t think P.M Boris’s somewhat (befuddled) statement “It is very, very important for everybody to understand that the reduction in these numbers ā in hospitalisations and in deaths and infections ā has not been achieved by the vaccination programme.” has helped, now I think he forgot; it’s a matter of waiting for the vaccines to take effect. But what do I know; seemingly the only solution this Government has is for us all to shut ourselves in the broom cupboard and bite our nails.
Which is entirely impractical, and thus is simply not going to happen. So I am going to pretend he didn’t say that personally, and carry on anticipating the continuation of our roadmap… To sensibly leave behind the various mistakes made since we all first heard the term “Rona” at least, which was somewhat after hearing about Covid 19.
April 13, 2021
One reads now of a surge in South London caused by someone who travelled here from Africa. I have to say, Mr. Redwood, I am getting progressively more fed up with the way this nonsense is being handled. Close the bloody borders and let us get back to normal. Sod this – I haven’t seen my family for 7 months now. Lots of people I speak to are beginning to feel the same – bloody angry and ready to ignore future lockdown nonsense.
April 13, 2021
+1
I have noticed that radio advertising in particular is getting people excited about getting back to normal. The commercial people are talking as though lockdown is ending.
People are going to be bitterly disappointed.
Prof Whitty has just announced that we should treat CV-19 like flu and have as many restrictions as the people will put up with.
Is that with or without furlough ? With or without skiving from home in the public sector on full pay ?
April 13, 2021
EU and worldwide holidays to places where the infection rate isn’t flat should be cancelled. I believe this sent us into lockdown last autumn and I think it will do so again this year. Are we quarantining those from India now that the infection rate is so high? Are your government investigating, through track and trace, where the infections are from at this stage of this four-month lockdown (for those of us that are following your rules)?
As we are in a four-month lockdown we have not tested the effectiveness of this vaccine program yet! The scaremongering about the AZ vaccine is it stalling the 2nd dose rollout in the UK? These people that were protesting last month, did they create the spike that we’re hearing about in Lambeth and Wandsworth, what did the new cases have in common?
April 13, 2021
Things are hotting up on the Ukraine border with Russia. Am much relieved that the US has Biden in office so that NATO is strengthened.. it would be awful if we still had that other clown in situ.
April 13, 2021
The man who involved the US into those foreign wars, you mean, like in Libya, Somalia and Syria. His name was Barack Obama, when Biden was VP. The man who didn’t involve the US in any new wars was Donald Trump.
If Ukraine joined NATO, that for Russia would be a provocation too far, and Biden must know it, or at least his mentally more alert advisers must. Hunter Biden’s business interests in a Ukrainian energy company wouldn’t be helped by full-on war in the area. Its gas installations would in some places be too close to the front line, for one thing.
There’ll just be more sabre-rattling, probably.
April 13, 2021
Back in 1941, just before the invasion of the USSR, the European diplomatic World was busy with rumours that Germany had made a proposal for joint German-USSR development of Ukraine, and any military movements were just a way of adding pressure.
The logic behind this was that control of Ukraine would already be a big win for Germany because it would outflank Turkey and open a path to the Middle East.
With that in mind it’s worth pondering the current situation between German-controlled EU, Turkey, Russia and Ukraine.
April 14, 2021
Germany now depends on Russia for gas. Stupid becoming dependent on another country. They are as stupid as us.
April 14, 2021
Big mistake’ the EU is not in any way controlled by Germany- where did you ever get this fanciful notion? The Daily Express
April 13, 2021
Right on. Who wants that hothead Churchill when Chamberlain makes you feel so much safer.
April 14, 2021
When faced with a bully and a gang you want a piece of paper to say ‘we agreed you wouldn’t hit me’!
April 13, 2021
Really Gary?
Trump was anti war and used diplomacy on several occasions to reduce potential conflict.
Ukraine and the Crimea has been a site of many disputes over the centuries, sometimes leading to bloody war.
Careful what you wish for.
April 13, 2021
+1
April 13, 2021
“I still think this is more likely to be more death certificates attributing death to CV 19 when it was just present in a person with other possible causes of death,”
All part of Project Fear, John?
April 13, 2021
Like many others I also question the ‘statistics’ and the ‘science’ this government is following and also where is this ‘pandemic’ it keeps fear mongering about?
A recent freedom of information request to the ONS has revealed, there were more deaths, age standardised mortality rate per 100,00 population in every year from 1990 through to 2010. The UK wasn’t shut down in any of those years and businesses, work, the economy and society carried on. And the UK had a substantially smaller population then, between 55 and 60 million.
April 13, 2021
I am advised by persons with knowledge of the situation that every effort should be made to avoid any high risk situations that could lead to a requirement for treatment in any NHS Accident and Emergency facility (A&E); particularly, if you have to be transported to A&E in an NHS Ambulance and suffer a long delay in getting transferred from the Ambulance into the Hospital A&E, for treatment.
NHS A&E capacity has been heavily austeritised in the last decade by this government, it was showing signs of distress in January 2020 before Covid hit. There is now a tsunami of patients that will turn-up at A&E in the next nine months.
April 13, 2021
Spending on the NHS has risen every year bar one since its inception.
Sad you politicise the NHS acorn.
April 14, 2021
Is “austeritised ” even a word, sounds like newspeak. Though it fits well with the general tone of your pronouncement.
April 13, 2021
The article today is interesting and statistics can be read in a variety of ways depending on how you want to put out the message. One thing is for sure 125,000 UK Covid deaths is one too many.
I believe the worldometer figures so do the media outlets.
No mention of Chile in the article!. A country that has done very well in the vaccination race, yet as the country reopened with high vaccination rates the number of Covid cases has started to rise. This is possibly due to younger people contracting the virus, and we know there is much less effect on them.
No mention of the long term medical effects of Covid and the large numbers of people who will require rehabilitation care for possibly up to 2 years.
No mention of supporting additional finance to help these people, (yes more money).
There is also early stages of medical and science research into the longer term brain effects of even mild covid eg Dementia and other medical conditions.
Covid is going to be around for some years and right now we are just at the beginning of understanding the true human cost of even mild covid in years to come, that will in turn impact on the ability to work and the economy.
April 13, 2021
The export numbers for February, the first normal month after Brexit, are out this morning. For example, one important EU trading partner:
The value of UK exports to Ireland was up by 38% month-on-month from Ā£1.13bn to Ā£1.56bn, down 7% from 2020. The figures for Irish imports to the UK continued to deteriorate, down by 21% month-on-month and 17% year-on-year.
This makes perfect sense. UK exports to Ireland are a balanced mix, overwhelmingly manufactured goods, plus oil, with food and drink well down the list. So UK exports are less affected by the “vet’s permission” nonsense.
On the other hand, for Irish exports to the UK the three top categories are food related, and with the UK market no longer protected by EU external tariffs, Irish agricultural products are facing much more competition, so this imbalance in growth will probably continue.
April 14, 2021
This is what Health austerity looks like in a simple chart. Keep in mind that the UK population increased by circa 3.9 million (6.2%) from 2010 to 2019.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/chartimage?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/bulletins/ukhealthaccounts/2018/7f472737
April 14, 2021
What does that prove acorn?
GDP rose, so cash for the NHS also rose.
Is there any figure where you would say the NHS is sufficiently funded?
Is there any chance the NHS might get more effective and efficient at spending the money it is given?
April 15, 2021
Why is this austerity. Is spending as a share of GDP even a good measure, what are the associated numbers for waiting times, incidence of critical health issues etc. There can be many reasons for reduction in expenditure, for example over that period there has been a concerted effort to reduce the extent of heart disease and improvements in prevention can lead to larger reductions in costs for treatments.
Also, where did those 3.9m extra heads come from, if increased net immigration how much have they materially contributed to the economy.
April 14, 2021
So, All Hail the Lockdown and the Vaccines, All Hail !
May I remind everyone that we are at the end of the flu season, and that just might have something to do with the diminishing numbers of infections?