Question:
To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, what recent estimate he has made of the number of hospital beds that will be needed for cases of the Omicron variant of covid-19 in January based on the latest forecasts. (91819)
Tabled on: 13 December 2021
Answer:
Maggie Throup:
In the absence of any data on disease severity or the likely transmission rates in the community, it is not possible to make any reliable estimates of predicted future hospitalisation rates or the number of hospital beds required for cases of the Omicron COVID-19 variant. As data on transmission rates becomes clearer over time and the initial hospitalisations allow assessment of severity and care needs, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) will be able to generate projections of predicted future hospitalisation rates. The UKHSA and NHS England and NHS Improvement are working together to collate this data as quickly as possible.
December 20, 2021
You’re being fobbed off as usual, Sir John. There is data on disease severity, already made available by South Africa. Maggie Throup or her mentors just don’t want to look at it, that’s all.
Omicron has been around in this country for over three weeks now. On Friday the government’s Covid webpage https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare says there were about 7,500 people in hospital ‘with Covid’. At the beginning of November there were c.9,500. Same story with ICU beds. No sign of any serious impact.
If we compare this with the Alpha variant in autumn 2020, the first case is believed to have been in mid-September, and that government web site shows Covid hospitalisations were soaring by the beginning of October, two weeks later. So Maggie Throup or anyone who wants to look at the data can see Omicron is so far not behaving as critically as Alpha did, even though we’re into winter by now when respiratory disease gets worse anyway.
Reply Iām not being fobbed off. The government itself is saying they do not believe the gloomy forecasts from the scientific advisers. This is very important .
December 20, 2021
Reply to reply
In fact one might sayā¦
WooooHooooo!
December 20, 2021
Oh dear though.
There is a rumour of lockdown on 27th December.
That would be nasty.
Is that why NY fireworks were cancelled?
December 20, 2021
Thereās something in the EU TCA treaty about ālevel-playing fieldā if the EU are in lockdown we are obliged to follow suit
December 20, 2021
+1
December 21, 2021
No European Union institution can impose any lockdown whatsoever.
Such decisions are entirely sovereign matters for member countries, and often for regional assemblies, mayors etc. within those.
December 21, 2021
I doubt it Glen Germany didn’t follow suit when everyone locked down for months on end.
December 20, 2021
Correct. There is preliminary data on disease severity from South Africa and Denmark,
December 21, 2021
There was “preliminary” data, which showed an anti-parasite medication to improve covid outcomes.
It was baloney.
December 20, 2021
Hmm … Interesting … The government is saying that it cannot make any estimates because it doesn’t have “any data on disease severity or the likely transmission rate”. This can be read two ways. Sir John takes this as a repudiation of the doomsday scenarios put forward by UK advisers, and he is probably right. BUT – it is also a refusal to accept the very positive South African data, or the limited but encouraging UK data (as set out by Philip P). So it seems ministers are walking a tightrope: they realise the public and their backbenchers won’t accept the apocalyptic SAGE forecasts, but they are too cowardly and weak to disregard these doomsayers outright and accept forecasts that they disagree with and which would be seen as a public rejection of them. What a pathetic excuse for government ministers!
December 21, 2021
Indeed and yet the government think they can predict the world temperature for 100 years and control this by controlling only manmade CO2!
December 21, 2021
I bet they are terrified that if they reject SAGE outright their cover is blown. A “king’s clothes” moment. Can’t have this…they’ll do anything to save their skins.
December 20, 2021
But why has it taken it nearly two years to get to this position? Surely it should have been asking questions from the start!
December 21, 2021
Reply to Sir John’s reply:
So are you saying that the Government is finally asking the questions that Fraser Nelson did? If so ….. why did they NOT do the job we pay them for and ask them a great deal sooner?
December 21, 2021
Reply to reply. I agree you havenāt been fobbed off.
However The Government is only now saying it does not believe the figures because of the political pressure, 100 Tory rebels, vast push back from the public. It believed the figures as recently as the vote to bring in Covid passports etc so please donāt claim that they have been cynical all along.
I have a friend closely involved in the industry (his company is developing testing kits) and it is well known that the stats have been misleading and massaged to keep fear going.
You stand up for us sir, but Big Brother is all purveying.
December 21, 2021
What “figures”?
The scientists say that it is not yet possible to give even half-reliable ones.
December 20, 2021
Another non answer. Yet we told the NHS is at risk of being overwhelmed without further “measures”, which I take to be code for lockdown. It sounds as though the NHS is totally unprepared based on this non answer to your question.
December 20, 2021
@oldtimer
“Yet we told the NHS is at risk of being overwhelmed…..”
After nearly two years and after having received vast amounts of our money, I would have expected the NHS to have got its house in order.
December 21, 2021
Here’s an update:
Researchers at Imperial College London compared 11,329 people with confirmed or likely Omicron infections with nearly 200,000 people infected with other variants. So far, according to a report issued ahead of peer review and updated on Monday, they see “no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta, judged by either the proportion of people testing positive who report symptoms, or by the proportion of cases seeking hospital care after infection.”
How would you react to that interim information if you were the Minister?
December 21, 2021
@NLH
A few quick thoughts in response to your question “How would you react to that interim information if you were the Minister ?”. It is, of course, a very difficult judgement and there will be many different opinions inside and outside Parliament. We must all be open to different viewpoints and there is probably no “right” answer.
I think that the Minister should “react” to all information, of which the interim information to which you refer is, of course, part.
I also think that I might write a speech for the Prime Minister to give to us plebs, which sets out all of the “facts” and confirms the Government’s preference not to interfere with our lives (certainly not to the same extent as from March of last year), provided that Xmillion of us have received three covid vaccinations by the end of this year and provided that covid hospitalisations have not exceeded Y and that excess deaths have not exceeded Z.
The speech would include an apology regarding potential breaches of the previous rules in Westminster which have been reported in the media and which are currently being investigated. The apology would include the reluctant acceptance that any formalised new rules would, as a result of the potential breaches, be even more difficult to police until the investigations have been concluded and punishments (if any) have been handed out. The current attitudes of very many people and the resulting difficulty in future policing of formal rules are very important factors in the Government’s decision.
The speech would, however, set out firm and clear guidance as to recommended behaviour with detailed reasons and risks. Everyone would need to make up their own mind and perhaps only be answerable to their family, friends and neighbours.
One of the explained risks would be that medical help might not be available for everyone who needs it, in view of pressure on our excellent front line NHS staff (this is probably true in any event).
Some situations may need more specific guidance – I am thinking particularly of schools. The guidance would include risks to teachers and children who, of course, operate in close proximity for longer periods of time. There are also risks to their families and other outsiders. Maybe parents should express a preference for their child to learn at home or learn at school. Working parents are perhaps likely to express a preference for school learning. Teachers should have primary say in safety procedures within their school. Having said this, if all/most teachers feel that no adequate safety procedures are possible within their school, and would prefer not to teach in a classroom environment, then alternative arrangements would need to be made and the parents advised. This might involve the closure of a school for a period of time. It is probably right the the local teachers should be in control of this and not local nor central government.
There’s lots more to think about, but what do you think so far !!
December 20, 2021
The scientists do not trust their own figures either – true scientists never do.
Confidence at the moment in the accuracy of the modelling is low, because the input data is not as yet very reliable.
Things should improve, however as to reliability over the next couple of weeks or so.
Politicians will just have to decide what risks they want to take.
They can’t blame the scientists if they choose to throw caution to the wind and things get bad, nor if people moan that they have over reacted.
The scientists are quite clear that there is much that as yet is not known reliably.
December 20, 2021
That is why scientists advise and elected politicians decide upon their educated guesses whilst taking into consideration all other factors and all other damages.
December 21, 2021
Yes, but re the article, I can see nothing in the Minister’s response which supports John’s claim in his headline.
December 20, 2021
But even their previous dire predictions were not correct.
Yet you urge us to react to their latest predictions
December 21, 2021
Things turned out considerably worse than predicted if you research what was actually said.
December 21, 2021
Go off and search “predictions Sage got wrong” on the Web and have a read NHL
December 21, 2021
As the Indy reported in March 2020:
“…Keeping the number of coronavirus deaths below 20,000 will still be āa good resultā for the UK, a health chief says, as he urged the public not to become ācomplacentā.
Stephen Powis distanced the NHS from a new study predicting the UK is on course for 5,700 deaths fatalities…”
Excess deaths are now above 200,000.
December 21, 2021
The Independent…no surprise that’s your chosen research point.
Lol
Still in denial
December 22, 2021
And NHL,your quote isn’t from Sage which was what we were talking about .
December 20, 2021
Well done SJR. Expose them and their mind-games that are destroying peoples lives, inciting worry and causing chaos at this most important time of the year for families and especially children
Vicious, nasty and destructive. It almost feels deliberate, exploitative and planned.
December 20, 2021
Dom – this has been bubbling for months like a mewling toddler about to burst into full wail.
“C’mon. Get on with it. Get it done !”
It was obvious – like a guided missile making a direct hit on Christmas.
Yes.
Planned.
I would believe NLH’s cloying exhortations that we must “stay safe” would hold were it not for the backdrop of Marxist assaults on all of our culture from every angle at this very time. He seems to be enjoying it all too much.
Conservatism is not allowed. When the Left lose all the votes this is how they get their power back.
No vaccine effort, no reduction in deaths was ever going to be good enough. This is clearly a push for zero covid for the very reason that the push for zero covid can never end.
Only communism can produce zero covid and then only because (like Year Zero) communists take control of the language and the truth.
Etc ed
December 20, 2021
Well, well!
I thought that a zillion trillion cases per day were predicted. What was it? An avalanche? Tsunami?
Should I lend that lady my Tarot cards do you think?
December 20, 2021
I think forecasts should just be dropped.
Spare capacity is surely the answer?
Why have we got to be ājust in timeā.
Why not be prepared and ready for all eventualities?
What if money is spent on empty beds. Better than the waste over the past two years.
December 20, 2021
Especially when there is pas de data!
December 20, 2021
*Of* or *with* Sir John. Vitally important.
*Face coverings* or *masks* Sir John. Also vitally important.
Why aren’t masks specified ? Why aren’t the shielded given a personal issue ? In fact why aren’t we ALL issued with them ? They gave out gas masks to everyone in WW2 ! Think of the shocking waste on everything else.
Do masks really work then ? The Independent newspaper video I saw showed a reporter engulfed in his own breath on a cold day double masked with N95s – this was supposed to be a pro mask video.
This is clearly politicial. The No10 parties have harmed public trust and polls (not that I trust them) show that over 50% of people will ignore new lockdowns.
I will be one of them. Boris can destroy as many pubs as he can. If he’s not careful he will turn the majority of people into criminals.
December 21, 2021
Not only ‘of ‘ or ‘with’ but also where , how many of these hospitalised cases have actually caught it in hospital?
December 20, 2021
Sir,
I have not only lost trust in any and all politician who failed to oppose mandatory vaccination for NHS and care staff and the vax papers. To me it is now certain that most if not the entire Goverment is evil, so is the HM Opposition. There is a cost to pay. People losing livelihoods, businesses on the brink, tax rises in the offing. The constant threatening messages. There have been suicides, the NHS is failing people with cancer with an obsession on stabbing. The year with vaccine we do have an excess mortality, last year we did not. Canadian Covid Care Alliance has published a clip that summarises the results and deficiencies of the Pfizer trial. Whoever is afraid and opts for this product may do so. However, more people die of heart problems and cancer than Covid even when counting anyone with a positive test in the preceding 28 days. Compared to one year ago the numbers are better, we now have not only a vaccine but a booster whilst alternatives are censored. Leaked photographs confirm the stats: there is nothing to fear for 99%. If you are obese, take vitamines C, D, and zinc. At the moment the most promising options to end this farce are a) mayors, councils and police not enforcing any of those mandates b) a general strike starting at a fixed date with everyone taking time off and businesses shutting down.
FYI
December 20, 2021
The question must be if the government do not believe the experts, why should anyone else? It is interesting how many times an expert can be wrong and yet still be considered an expert.
December 21, 2021
Read the reply, not just Sir John’s headline.
There is nothing to suggest that his claim is the case. The Minister simply said that the scientists admit that they are unable as yet to predict the behaviour of the omicron variant in any meaningful way beyond general, self-evident statements.
That is, the ball is absolutely in the politicians’ court as to what possible risks to take.
It would appear that Sir John dislikes that rather.
Reply Not so. The point you are missing is the NHS is not using the expert predictions for its bed planning
December 21, 2021
But the crux of the matter is, as the scientists are at pains to explain, that there are NO reliable predictions at present, Sir John.
You know that though, don’t you?
December 20, 2021
To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, we are now some 18+ months into this pandemic. Can you advise what Prophylatic and early onset treatments are currently available in the NHS for traeting Sars Cov2 (aka Covid 19)?
December 21, 2021
+100. One of the biggest single failings in this whole affair. Restrictions + vaccines are not the only way of dealing with it. Recommending vitamin D, C and zinc could have saved us billions.
December 21, 2021
billions being an ever so slight exaggeration?
December 21, 2021
I think not.
Ā£37 billion on TTT which “made no material difference” to the main outcomes of the pandemic here?
December 21, 2021
It was about treatment, not so-called ‘tracking’ – the saving of billions assumed the ‘vitamin D, C and zinc’ would remain at present pricing. Imagine the inflation when the government announced providing those items to everybody. All those chums cornering the market. ‘Get your vitamin C orange here, Ā£5 each’. or ‘ UV lamps, full body only Ā£10,000’
December 21, 2021
Aye, those Tories get everywhere, now that you mention it.
December 21, 2021
The way out of this was always the ability to treat infection early and reliably. Vaccines have been shown to fade but treatment will keep hospitals flowing.
Why has treatment been the poor relative of vaccination, could it be return on investment?
December 21, 2021
I think what is really important here is that the mindset of SAGE and the Civil Service (and perhaps too of some ministers) is to pursue alarmist projections in order to manipulate policy outcomes. I think there is plenty of evidence to suggest that a similar approach is adopted in most branches of government. Thus we had Project Fear over Brexit, and Net Zero when it should be clear that on a range of reasonable climate projections adaptation is a far superior strategy.
Having been found out over the virus and Brexit (even if the worst of Net Zero is hiding in the future), the question now becomes how much longer can this attitude persist without the public coming to distrust the machinery of government, and how does it regain credibility and restore even handedness to policy making? Part of the answer lies in having MPs and journalists (a group who have been mostly complicit in the process) as focal points effectively questioning that machinery, and being competent to do so. What happens if they do not manage to do this does not bear thinking about.
December 21, 2021
Clement Attlee, when sacking a Minister, simply wrote “not up to the job”.
It is past time for the Conservative party to write the same about Johnson…and act on it.
December 21, 2021
Being a Tory Minister seems to be more about “being” than about “doing”, that is it’s an identity not a job.
December 21, 2021
These are made up models, and are similar to the made up co2 model rubbish.
When are we going to get somebody in control who is going to ask for the real data and code behind them, so other experts can check them.
The only reason I can think as to why we don’t get the data and code is because the models are not credible!!
This is just the usual activists claiming to be a scientists, who obviously aren’t, otherwise they would be happy to share their data and calculations.
December 21, 2021
THAT IS VERY TELLING
So the figures that are screamed from every media about escalating ‘cases’ do not provide reliable data to be worked with – That should tell us that these inflated numbers are nothing but hype to scare more people, and have no foundation in fact!
The minister should resign – hasn’t he been misleading parliament as well as all of us!
December 21, 2021
It is very difficult looking back to remember where we were at last June when Starmer and his party wanted to keep the lockdown going on for much longer didn’t they? Didn’t Boris manage to stand firm then and the numbers dropped through the summer?
I hope that if the cabinet is planning on cancelling New Year they just tell everyone now because hotels are booked, smaller gatherings are planned, trains booked and if they are to be cancelled people will not be happy to find out last minute. Also, when these people that make decisions that deprive people of contact with others even outdoors! We expect said leaders to follow the same rules expected of us (if Boris had believed the lockdown risks in May then he wouldn’t have been sat in the garden with a tiny baby within 1m of others whether they did covid tests or not (that just wasn’t allowed)) – including not to disappear abroad so you can do what you please with big groups of people as many celebrities did last year – if they trog off then they have to isolate on their return because this is how it gets passed around all the schools and workplaces when they return from their jaunts to places not testing anywhere near as much as we do in the UK.
All these people crying out for full furlough lockdowns that they expect other people to work through for just 20% more money, you got away with this first time I don’t believe you will again, we were taken for mugs. They expect takeaways to stay open, their local food shops, deliveries to be made, pharmacies to open, dentists to open but they probably in the safest of jobs don’t want to work through it. A disease that we are now immunised against, taking precautions against, got treatments for – everyone else work for us so we can have an extended break and not put any pressure on A&E, we can see you and what you are doing.
December 21, 2021
So the NHS and other highly paid bureaucrats & leaders cannot discern or make reliable estimates on available world data? Will not publish there own analysis and or then take appropriate prudent and reasonable safeguards.
Why were the Nightingdales closed if data was unavailable and estimates were unreliable?
The reason they say nothing is because a) they are useless or b) lazy and prefer to do nothing c) they disagree but are legally or otherwise prevented from saying d) they fear potential future criminal inquiries.
The questions and non-answers are highly revealing by what is said but not said.
Both Ministers & civil servants responsible should be subjected to enquiry until a satisfactory position is established resulting in a certain number being sacked.