Russia plans to play China and Europe off together over the supply of gas. They are in discussion over selling more of their gas to China via a new pipe still to be built at the same time as they are seeking to close the deal on further supply of gas to Germany via the new Nord Stream 2 pipe now completed. Hungary has signed up to fifteen more years of Russian gas with supply via a southern pipeline that avoids Ukraine, the source of transit capacity under the prior agreement.
Now the EU has confirmed the important role of gas today and going forward in the EU energy mix this strengthens Russia’s bargaining position as a big supplier of a crucial source of energy for much of the continent. Hydrogen is some way off as an alternative gas to meet emissions targets next decade and beyond. The USA can only complain that her European allies have weakened the western position. The current US/Russia disagreements about Ukraine are complicated by the gas route to western Europe across that country, with Russia clearly keen to cut off Ukraine’s revenues from this source.
The UK currently is not reliant on Russian gas. We depend on Norway and Qatar primarily. It makes producing more of our own gas even more important to our national security and reliability of supply. We should reduce our import dependence on the continent for both electricity and gas, as the two are interlinked with gas still an important fuel for power generation as well as for the direct heating of factories and homes. With Germany closing all her nuclear power stations and pledging to run down her large coal generation sector, and with Poland also under pressure to cut out the coal, the continent will have an even tougher energy position to negotiate. That is why the UK needs to concentrate on self sufficiency, and on ensuring a margin of capacity over demand even when the wind does not blow. The EU has ambitions over Ukraine which are no longer partly our responsibility.
January 22, 2022
Good morning.
I too think it important that we find alternatives to gas supplies from other nations. One area is our own coal.
There was a time when the UK used Coal Gas for all its heating and lighting. It was quite a poisonous gas to use, especially in the home and its replacement (Natural Gas) was most welcome. I raise this as I am curious to know what obstacles there might be to reviving this particular energy resource ? Not for domestic use but, for the generation of electrical energy. What processes need to be undertaken to extract the coal gas and is it viable from a cost point of view ?
I think we need to explore an energy mix of both type and supply, and never allow ourselves to be too reliant on both a source and a supplier. A broad choice will both keep energy prices down and various shocks to supply (eg the blocking of the Suez Canal) to a minimum.
January 22, 2022
Perfectly possible but it is far cheaper and much more energy efficient in general just to burn the coal and thus generate the electricity directly. For natural gas just get fracking the UK has loads of suitable reserves to tap but the new anti-CO2 (plant, crop and tree food) religion is idiotically holding this back.
Coal is far easier to store and transport to the power station than coal gas is too.
January 22, 2022
When I was a lad we lived near the Beckton (East London) Gas plant (thought to be the largest in the world at that time) and our houses were run on coal gas. As a by product we used to heat our homes with the resultant coke and Coalite in our open fires (no central heating then) which was cheap and clean burning. When I had my first chemistry set I put a hole in a test tube, burned some coal in it and lit the gas coming from the hole. What was left in the tube was coke, so it could be done and to another effect of supplying clean burning fuel. The eco zealots would not allow it, especially as the UK with its one percent of emissions is of course solely responsible for poisoning the whole world.
January 22, 2022
Indeed we had the huge Brentford Gas Works nearby when I was a kid, the coal was bought up the Thames by Barge to fuel it.
Like you some of the coke waste from the plant was used at home on an open fire.
January 22, 2022
But graham when we changed to natural North Sea gas all appliances had to be modified so I assume modern appliances wouldn’t run on coal gas. The only time I ever saw Beckton Gas Works was in the film Full Metal Jacket as normally I would not have gone north of the river except for the City or West End even though my dear old Dad worked for the original Gas Light & Coke Company (North Thames Gas Board after nationalisation).
Because the gas had been extracted it was quite a long job getting a coke fire up and running.
January 23, 2022
Yes, but the fire never went out in the winter, it seemed so much colder then, probably because there was no insulation. We would burn all sorts. I remember our shoes were all leather and when they could no longer be repaired by dad, on the fire they went for a little bit of heat. When I was ill we even had an open fire in the bedroom. Most of the time there was ice on the inside of the bedroom windows. My auntie even had an old Victorian range which she used to heat and cook on. As a matter of fact, just lately I have gone back to burning smokeless fuel with logs in my multi fuel burner which is basically anthracite. Never would have done that but for the law that logs must be kiln dried now and I want to stretch out my supply, as it is easier to get now than logs. I agree the fittings won’t take coal gas now, but it will never happen so it doesn’t really arise. It was just a thought previous posts brought up.
January 22, 2022
Lifelogic
“Using Coal”
Seems very sensible idea given we already have some coal fired power stations open.
I am sure it should not be too difficult to design and put some sort of filter on the exhaust chimneys, if that was the real problem, but do we have any coal mines safe to open, or any miners wishing to work in them.
Otherwise its back to imports again.
January 22, 2022
Presumably any mining would be open-cast nowadays.
January 23, 2022
Open cast mining basically digs up crap which is what the Germans are burning. The best cleanest fuels are deep down like anthracite which is hard due to the heat and compaction.
January 22, 2022
We have been using coal but coal imported from Russia (in an emergency & on trucks) and burned at power stations that were about to be scrapped – such is the incompetence of our net zero energy department & government planning.
January 22, 2022
Town gas was a by-product of the process to produce coking coal, and require burning more coal to generate the heat. What will you do with the coking coal now, given UK steel production has disappeared from the high tax, high cost of living UK?
If the object is to burn it to generate electricity, you may as well burn the coal in its entirety.
January 22, 2022
The strategy has to be to establish a set of pathways to materials, energy and fuels (for industry, domestic and transport) using a variety of energy sources and feedstocks to avoid over dependency on one approach and be adaptable to availability and demand.
Inevitably we will need to transform some energy sources and materials for applications and also for storage. The reliance on mono fuels such as gas and oil are numbered.
January 22, 2022
Many thanks to all those that answered my query.
January 22, 2022
What an absolute mess. One that has been solely brought about by successive governments. Once there is an energy squeeze in Europe there is no way they will export to us. With Macron at the helm things can only get worse. Even when we were members of the EU Macron showed complete disdain towards us. God only knows why when you think of what we have done for them in the not too distant past. Net zero will destroy us. It is imperative we find our own supplies of gas and sort out small nuclear with some urgency. Anybody could have seen the impossible situation we are getting into a long time ago. Fancy the EU relying on Russia for anything as important as energy security. The chicjens are coming home to roost.
January 22, 2022
FUS +1
January 22, 2022
Exactly. But we have loads of easily extracted natural gas resources in the UK & we even used to be able to organise our own nuclear power stations and coal mining too. But the CO2 religion is in the way and all but about 10% of MPs are believers in this insane religion – perhaps because they nearly all lack any understanding of science, energy, climate or engineering and have not bothered to study it or are incapable of this.
You say âWhat an absolute mess. One that has been solely brought about by successive governmentsâ – indeed like so very many problems alas. Successive government have take us over the last hundred and twenty years from government spending at under 10% of national income to nearly 50%. The current one even locked us down to damage the economy further and prevents us even fracking for cheap gas and reliable energy for no sensible reason. They even have a law making it illegal for people to work (for less than a certain wage) even when they would like to do so.
January 22, 2022
Charles Moore today is surely spot on.
âAs Russia poses a grave threat to European security, our MPs sound ever more ridiculous.
Grandstanding speeches about Noâ10 parties are absurdly âšout of proportion when Britain faces a truly dangerous situation in Ukraine.â
January 22, 2022
FUS +2
January 22, 2022
I believe the root cause of our problems is the system of government we live under. It is simply given over to short termism. A government has 2-4 years to implement its manifesto promises as see a return on its results. Results that they hope will get them re-elected for another term. Longer project, such as energy generation, water supply (another disaster coming over the hill) and hospitals, take time to do. You have legislation, planning, design and then construction and commissioning to overcome. This can make any government wanting the electorate to see the fruits of its labours seem idle. So they leave it to the next lot, and therefore, nothing gets done. Too much is politicised and, when politicised it takes on a life of its own that no one can control or take responsibility for – eg the NHS.
January 22, 2022
Hmmm, but a big proportion of Conservative MPs have been in a position of power since 2005 to follow on conservative longer term policies and projects (ok they may have been held back for the first ConLib government but there is no excuses that wash now). Boris just overturned the manifesto pledge of 2050 to 2030 in relation to greening up the UK, why? Letâs not blame Carrie he has to get that through his cabinet and his entire elected government doesnât he?
January 22, 2022
Yes. But in 2010 they had to go into coalition. In 2015 Cameron thought that he would, once again, have to go into coalition. The EU Referendum promise gave him a small but workable majority. After 2016 we had a new PM who called an unwanted GE. She lost her majority and had to rely on the Ulster Unionists to remain in office. Eventually she was replaced and we had yet another GE in 2019 when, after Nigel Farage stood down his BREXIT candidate the current PM got a healthy majority. So for 9 whole years the government has been living on margins.
January 22, 2022
@Mark B; Not the political system but certain ideologies, such as abandoning (post war) consensus politics.
The British electricity and gas industries were nationalised in 1948/9, and despite many successive Tory govts at the time being opposed to other acts of Nationalisation (steel & road transport being notable) energy remained nationalised [1] until the short-termism in the 1980s (that still exists to this day), govts washing their hands and responsibility for issues central to planning for the future, let the “Markets” decide -and of course the “Markets” chose to buy cheaper gas from Russia, chose not to invest in expensive nuclear, or hydro, or even perhaps cleaner forms of Coal Gas…
We need more politics, more statutory controls, in these essential utilities, not less!
[1] those successive Tory govts even improved the scope of the original act of Nationalisation, for example creating the CEA and then CEGB, together with the Electricity Council, the British Gas Corporation in 1972
January 22, 2022
What proof have you got for these various statements Jerry?
What do you mean by post war consensus?
Explain when and how you claim it was abandoned.
Tell us all if that was a positive or negative thing and why you believe that.
Tell us what legal constraints and involvements by the State are acting upon the free markets you describe and explain what positive or negative effects those elements have.
Thanks.
January 23, 2022
@Perte2; Try actually reading what I posted. I laid out my rational, citing historic facts and events, or are you going to deign, for example, the Electricity Council (created 1st Jan 1958 by the then Macmillan govt.) never existed, are you seriously saying you have never heard/understood the term “Post-war consensus”, an accepted term used in academia for the period from 1945 to the late 1970s, are you seriously suggesting the electricity and gas supply industries were not privatized between 1980 and 1997 – that must come as news to our host, never mind “Sid”!
January 23, 2022
No, you made numerous statements without any data facts or statistics to support your views.
Listen Jerry I am just saying what Hefner, bill and other tell me needs to be done when you post.
January 24, 2022
Are you not afraid to get an âessayâ in response to your questions, P2?
January 25, 2022
No not all heffy
January 22, 2022
I agree, Mark, but would having longer-term Parliaments actually improve things? Perhaps what is needed is both a change of mindset plus serious politicians, such as our host, to convey the importance of long-term strategies to the electorate.
January 22, 2022
We had the Parliament Act in 2010 that prevented the PM from calling a snap election and handing over the responsibility to Parliament. It also stipulated that a term should be no less than 5 years. In that time (2010 – 2022) we have had 3 general elections and 3 PM’s and, depending what happens regarding the current incumbent in Number 10 could be on our 4th PM by the end of the year.
Our political landscape more resembles that of Italy than the USA where, they have one Presidential election every 4 years – On the dot !
January 23, 2022
@Mark B; Yes the POTUS carries a fixed term of office but not Capitol Hill, hence the USA all to often finds herself with lame-duck governments, a President who can’t control the House and a House that gets vetoed by the President, result; govt. shutdowns & policy vacuums.
Nor does this fixed term assure the president who is elected is the same president who ends the term of office, as we saw when Nixon had to resign, and yes there was a policy shift from the Ford administration. An aside, something some on the right in the USA currently ignore, should a president be incapacitated for whatever reason the VP automatically takes over, so all those Trump supporters calling for Biden to be removed from office on health grounds would have POTUS Harris to contend with, someone (allegedly) much further to the left than Biden.
The most stable govts the UK has had in the last 100 years, outside of wartime, were the early 1930s National Govt and the period of post-war consensus, when much party ideology took a back seat, I’m not saying there were no problems, just stability.
January 22, 2022
Plus the ruling party actually has a huge political incentive to leave as big an economic mess and other chaos as possible when they expect/know they will lose. Something the Labour party has done every time they have been in power. This so that the incoming government gets most of the blame for it.
âIâm afraid there is no money.â as Liam Byrne rightly put it as Brown and Darling left office.
January 22, 2022
@LL; A lie repeated often enough becomes urban myth…
Historical fact are, the Tories have left their own economic mess in the past too, 1964 and 1974, even the 2007/8 international banking crash was made worse here in the UK by previous Tory deregulation, allowing demutualisations, allowing under regulated borrowing etc. The mistake Blair/Brown made was to out Tory the Tories, to win support from would-be Tory voters still drunk on cheap money.
âIâm afraid there is no money.â
That has been the standard, long standing, joke left on many a incoming Chancellors desk upon a new govt taking over. It being made public said more about the then coalition than it did the outgoing govt.
January 22, 2022
I did not say that the Tories have not left economic messes behind them did I why no comment on what I actually said?
But Labour certainly have a far better record in this respect.
January 22, 2022
Have you got any proof outgoing Chancellors regularly left notes on desks saying “I’m afraid there is no money left “or similar.
I’m intrigued Jerry
Really I am.
January 22, 2022
The fatal deregulation was under Brown’s Chancellorship, where he destroyed the regulatory regime and replaced it by one with no clear responsibilities – the tripartite system.
January 23, 2022
@LL; You said; “Something the Labour party has done every time they have been in power.”
That is a lie, but nor did I say you lied, just that you repeated what is now an urban myth.
@Mark; Well that is a chicken or egg question! Could/would the Blair govt have allowed further deregulation (would it have even been possible) had so much deregulation of the financial markets etc not already occurred under the previous Tory govt. In fact I will further suggest, had that Tory deregulation not occurred the Labour party would not have ditched their traditional economic policies, Blair would likely not have become leader.
January 22, 2022
Yes. Scorched Earth.
The irony of 1997 General Election was, the man you love to hate, one John Major, actually bequeathed the New Labour Party and economy on the up. Something that made people think that Labour had indeed changed and that the economy was safe in their hands. Oh what fools we were !
January 22, 2022
@Mark B; Yes 1997 felt great, little did we realise UK Plc was being mortgaged up to the hilt on borrowed money (PFI’s, multiple times annual income home loans, lax controls on BNPL etc), 10 years later much of UK Plc was in real danger of crashing along with the banks and Sterling – 1997 was 1964 all over, again after an extended period of Tory govt who had started to believe they were the natural government, it just took twice as long to be back in the mire…
Not saying Blair/Brown were without fault, see my reply to Lifelogic above.
January 22, 2022
You knew that the crash would happen in 2008 Jerry.
I’m really impressed.
Very few economic analysts did.
Tell us what is going to happen in the next few years.
This could help save us all.
January 22, 2022
+1
The problem is with Carrie Antoinette pulling the strings we will continue to virtue signalling to the world how clever enough are.
Sitting on humongous amounts of coal, oil and gas we will continue to import which is the biggest component of our trade deficit and be subject to blackmail by france and others.
It’s time for a real conservative government. Come on Nigel.
January 22, 2022
Nigel? Which one? Lawson is surely rather too old though certainly sound on energy and the barmy CO2 religion. Nigel FARAGE can clearly never take the helm. Only a tiny handful of MPs (including JR) did not vote for Ed Milibandsâs insane Climate Change Act.
January 22, 2022
Which was voted in without even any realistic computations of the vast cost and huge damage it would do – and is indeed now doing.
January 22, 2022
Totally agree Ian. The only possible way of getting an actual Conservative Government we are all crying out for is one led by Nigel Farage. Trouble is the two socialist parties, Labour and Conservative, have got the current FPTP system nicely stitched up between them.
January 22, 2022
I agree Jools and Ian. Farage comes up with common sense ideas and is very conservative for my money. I just love him on GB News.
January 22, 2022
+1
Will the real Tories please stand up
January 22, 2022
+1
January 22, 2022
“What an absolute mess. One that has been solely brought about by successive governments.”
Yes, indeed, FUS, my husband was worrying about this under Blair.
January 22, 2022
FUS
+1
January 22, 2022
Lets hope Norway keeps her gas flowing freely. We have heard much about wind turbines, but there are other alternatives which may not be as efficient as natural gas , however when used as alternative sources in a collection .would reduce the panic , for instance as long as we have a moon we will have tides and power from this movement, but harnessing needs action and there is always too much talk and not enough action. The global politics of sources of power and how man uses these sources to flex his muscles to be the best alpha troop is very primitive.
January 22, 2022
MB – Tidal electrical generation is just as much of a problem as wind and solar as it too is intermittent. Tides only flow rapidly 50% of the time. If it was worth doing it would have been done years ago.
January 22, 2022
But you can predict tidal flow, set your watch by it. Can you predict the sudden non availability of gas or electricity from the continent? You also wouldn’t have the continual threat of disruption by say France always hanging over your head.
January 22, 2022
Tidal flow produces power in a parabolic curve from zero(slack tide) to 100% (rip tide) and very often it’s at full output when you don’t need it and zero when you need it most.
Not very efficient.
January 23, 2022
I don’t disagree, many energy generation processes will need buffering or storage, but it is interesting how people have a blind spot with imported energy which apparently would never be interrupted.
January 22, 2022
Main problems are you have to use the energy in the ~6 hours (high to low tide) and the large neap spring tide variation, the vast cost of the miles of enclosures/barrages/walls needed and the silting up/dredging thus needed.
January 22, 2022
Tidal energy not used in that time is otherwise all wasted.
January 22, 2022
The most recent ideas were to fill a lagoon and let the water out slowly between tides, thus you had power at slack tide as well as incoming and outgoing, but anything that involves sea water will always require a lot of expensive maintenance, due to either corrosion, silting up, or the blocking of filters.
January 23, 2022
Our gas and oil supplies are not continuous, they are stored to buffer supply or to mitigate disruption, or rather oil still is but gas isn’t apparently.
Tidal flow generators do not use dams, walls nor need dredging.
January 22, 2022
yes .. not efficient .. solar; not efficient , hydro electric power; not efficient, wind turbines ;not efficient . BUT how about all together !
January 22, 2022
I think that not efficient x not efficient x not efficient gets close to net zero efficient.
January 22, 2022
Margaret. How about non efficient. How can anything that’s not efficient ever be so? Having something that IS efficient seems to make sense to me.
January 22, 2022
Altogether not cost effective either!
January 22, 2022
A moon (plus the earths rotation that is) so not technically ârenewableâ but long lasting. But the costs of enclosing large areas of sea, maintaining the walls and dredging the area is huge so not cost effective. We do not even defend our coasts and houses from the sea in many areas like Norfolk and Suffolk as even this is deemed too expensive. Plus although tidal is reliable it is not remotely on demand as you have to use it in the ~6 hours between each high tide and low. Far less power on neap tides than spring tides too.
But that white van man hater, the Labour lawyer woman thinks (in a recent Spectator podcast on energy that we get waves even without any wind so she suggests this as a solution – so barmy and scientifically ignorant are so many of our MPs and indeed out population.
January 22, 2022
You do not seem to know that waves are not always generated where there is wind. Ever heard of swell?
January 22, 2022
Sure you can drop stones in too but you will not get much net energy out!
January 22, 2022
Are you really suggesting we capture our energy from the swell of passing ships?
January 22, 2022
There are different kinds of tidal energy capture, tidal flow generators do not need walls or dredging.
You would know this if your were not so ignorant of engineering options
January 22, 2022
I know this perfectly well – but these are generally even less cost effective when you do the numbers.
January 23, 2022
so provide the numbers.
January 22, 2022
Tidal flow generators are, however, extremely susceptible to mechanical breakdown due to the enormous stresses and vibrations they encounter because flow velocities change significantly over the water depth of the blade diameter and because of wave action. That limits the size of the generator and increases its effective cost, as well as increasing downtime for repairs. It also means that the electricity they produce is subject to a lot of “flicker”, and it has now become standard to buffer that so that it is usable – adding more cost for batteries (as at Bluemull Sound) or electrolysis (as at the Orbital 2 project in Orkney).
January 23, 2022
Maintenance is certainly an issue but cost reduced designs are being developed, such as with the Orbital Marine o2 which doesn’t require return to port for maintenance.
Buffering is a necessity with intermittent generation but why is this a negative? Our oil and gas supplies are buffered, your petrol/diesel fuel supply is buffered.
January 23, 2022
The issue is cost. The Administrative Strike Price for tidal stream power in the current 4th CFD round is ÂŁ211/MWh in 2012 money, which indexes to ÂŁ251.23/MWh currently, with another 7.5%+ of indexation coming soon ot take it beyond ÂŁ270/MWh. I strongly suspect that will not include the costs of stabilising the output flicker second by second via electrolysis, which will almost certainly attract another wave of subsidy on further green excuses. The total real cost is therefore going to be substantially higher, even before we account for the cost of providing backup to the intermittent output caused by the cycle of the tides across the day and across the month.
January 23, 2022
The O2 tidal stream generator in the Orkneys is connected to EMECâs onshore electrolyser to generate green hydrogen.
Will any new gas plants include the cost of new storage?
January 22, 2022
She didn’t indicate that she hated anyone.
She assumed – probably correctly – that a self-employed trader with his house draped in George Crosses in that locality might be more likely a ukip voter than a Labour one, that is all.
The picture was simply humorous on that basis, as she was on the stump, and invited the viewer to speculate as to whether there was much point her calling in that instance.
January 22, 2022
Keep wriggling NHL
We know you lefties hate the working classes.
January 23, 2022
Perhaps “held in contempt” might be better than “hate” I agree. But then perhaps this white van man might have had rather more sensible views on the causes of waves and wave power and perhaps the EU too.
January 22, 2022
Geothermal energy, which is constant and reliable, could generate 20% of our current electricity needs.
January 22, 2022
If you drill loads of deep and rather expensive holes perhaps.
January 22, 2022
150 to 600 feet drilling for geothermal energy in Cornwall, it would seem.
So is it more difficult and expensive that drilling 1 to 2 miles vertically for fracking then some more horizontally? Or to a 1,300 m depth under the North Sea?
January 22, 2022
Why worry her?
Why not get our government to give companies who want to frack or explore fir offshore oil permission to just go ahead?
January 23, 2022
hefner, according to ‘think geoenergy’ the target depth at the Eden Project is 4500 metres. You’re getting it mixed up with vertical ground source heat pumps.
January 28, 2022
Miami.mode, Thanks. I got to the United Downs Deep Geothermal Power Project and they indeed drill to 5275 m. Apologies.
January 23, 2022
It’s cheaper to import from Iceland, maybe.
January 23, 2022
How very scientific/mathamatical of you.
How many is “loads”, how deep is “deep” and how much is “expensive”.
And what are the comparative figures for gas and oil?
January 23, 2022
But would need fracking. Please let me stand back while your head explodes.
JF
January 23, 2022
Why would you need fracking (hydraulic fracturing) to access geothermal energy?
January 22, 2022
The cost of harnessing the tides is prohibitive. The supply of energy will come in waves, as it were, and you have the problem that there is no storage.
Solar panels on every roof in the country would be good – but you still need to store the energy.
January 22, 2022
Mike. My house I bought had solar panels already fitted and my energy bill has still gone sky high. It’s hardly anything to write home about in the winter when energy is needed most.
January 22, 2022
Mike it was reported in Germany some years ago that householders with solar panels sometimes had a problem in hot sunny weather with getting rid of the power generated as if it overloaded their system it could cause a fire.
January 22, 2022
As reported in the German edition of the National Enquirer?
January 22, 2022
Ridiculous comment hef
January 23, 2022
Do you have a reference for this? What was the exact cause of fire/failure?
My system is configured as a 5kWh (max power) array feeding a 3.8 kWh (max output) inverter and I haven’t had any overheating problems at all. Partly this is because there have been improvements in inverter design and components (particularly capacitors) and because each panel has it’s own mini-inverter to make for more efficient load balancing and transmission.
Another aspect is that when PV panels get hot their performance drops – you need to have good airflow underneath to keep them relatively cool or they degrade. So there is a degree of self throttling in very sunny weather.
January 22, 2022
The EU doesnât have ambitions over Ukraine – beyond ensuring Ukraine can determine its own future.
Obviously Moscow is scared at the huge success of the EU – which has united European countries and helped spread peace, prosperity and democracy almost all the way to Russiaâs borders. Most of the central and Eastern European countries which are not in the EU are seeking to join it.
Democracy is a threat to autocrats like Putin and Johnson.
Meanwhile nobody is much interested in the opinions of the leaders of Tory Brexit Plague Island. An angry little country thrashing about for a raison d’ĂȘtre.
January 22, 2022
You really have got it bad. You drone on more than I do….You need a hobby mate, stamp collecting or something
January 22, 2022
Dom. Yes or how about something more cheerful. Hearse spotting. Our Andy would enjoy that.
January 22, 2022
but none are EV ….
January 22, 2022
đ
January 22, 2022
Andy has been smoking a particularly strong blend today!
January 22, 2022
Moscow has noted the increasing weakness of EU and has upped the ante to push its claim for more controlled territory, and reliance of neighbours on their natural sources of energy.
EU dictators respect Russian dictatorship – kindred spirits, so little resistance is offered.
January 22, 2022
Former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt writing in 1984:
“The political behaviour of Russia hasn’t really changed much since Ivan III and Ivan IV……I think it is a mix of a never really satisfied drive for expansion and a strong and subconscious belief that Mother Russia will bring salvation to the world.This idea of salvation by Russia was in the minds of Russian intellectuals long before communism-Moscow as the Third Rome,after Byzantium.”
That is a reference to the Third Rome prophecy of Filofey of Pskov to Vasily III,some of the most famous words in Russian history( there’s no shortage of those to choose from!):
“Our ruler of the present Orthodox Empire is on earth the sole Emperor of the Christians,the leader of the Apostolic Church which stands no longer in Rome or in Constantinople but in the blessed city of Moscow.She alone shines in the whole world brighter than the sun……All Christian empires are fallen and in their stead stands alone the empire of our ruler in accordance with the prophetical books.Two Romes have fallen but a third stands firm and a fourth there will not be.”
Powerful stuff!Beat that,EU!
(Ivan III r1462-2505,Vasily III r1505-1547,Ivan IV r1547-1575).The early tsars used to ritually cleanse their hands after receiving western visitors in the Kremlin.
January 22, 2022
Goodness.
What has Ukraine determining her own future to do with us ?
You’ve just admitted that we’re interfering in the buffer zone between the west and Russia.
January 22, 2022
Part of the problem here is that the EU (Common Market) is way beyond that group that we joined.
At the time of the first referendum the Iron Curtain was in place. The EU expanded out of all recognition into former USSR territory.
Who voted for that ??? Who voted to have Ukraine as a geopolitical hot potato ?
January 22, 2022
EEC = trade group – EU = elite dictatorship
January 23, 2022
EU – ELITE UNION, EEC – European equal competitors.
January 22, 2022
When we should be attending to the “buffer zone” closer to home, the one called Northern Ireland which Boris Johnson pretends he loves dearly but treats with utter contempt. In fact I seriously wonder whether he and most of the Tory party would be willing to sell it off, just as Richard I allegedly said he would sell London if he could find a buyer … I’ve no idea why his statue is outside the Houses of Parliament!
January 22, 2022
Buffer zone – its not the 20th century
January 22, 2022
Lots of “manufacturing of consent” for a war with Russia going on in the media,just like with Iraq.
I do hope these people are not believing their own propaganda and realise that Russia is not Iraq.
January 23, 2022
So many are armchair warriors just as they are armchair scientists, engineers and medics.
They talk up a storm with no experience or background or responsibility.
January 22, 2022
navalnews.com, 10/03/2021, âNew details emerge on UK-built FACM vessels for Ukraineâ.
January 22, 2022
Russia is behaving towards the Ukraine as the EU is to us: she doesn’t want the Ukraine to flourish as a prosperous, independent neighbour. She sees that as an internal threat.
And Europe should have heeded Kissinger’s advice by taking care not to humiliate Russia. But the EU’s imperial appetite is overweening, arrogant, and very, very foolish.
January 22, 2022
The other advice from Kissinger was to be sure to leave a buffer.
January 22, 2022
If you want a buffer zone create it from within your own country don’t nick someone else’s land
January 22, 2022
Agree
January 22, 2022
@rose; Surely the reason Russia want the Ukraine ailed to them is the same reason they annexed the Crimea, access to warm water ports for their navy and perhaps trade? Nor does Russia want NATO weapons on their door step any more than the USA wanted Soviet ICBM in Cuba, this is not new, it is why the USSR constructed the Warsaw pact out of what became the eastern buffer states that they controlled after WW2.
January 22, 2022
@Andy; NATO and the Warsaw pact secured peace in Europe (via the concept of MAD), not the EU, what is more the current crisis is a direct result of EU expansionism after the collapse of the USSR and Warsaw pact due to errant talk from EU officials about the EU existing from mid Atlantic to the Urals -and perhaps beyond.
January 22, 2022
NATO was okay in the 1950s and 60s – but has been a failure for more than 50 years. As we have recently seen in Afghanistan – where NATO was beaten by a ragtag bunch of goat herders – bombing people into submission doesnât work.
When the Warsaw Pact collapsed in 1991 – it was not NATO that successfully filled the void. Instead it was the newly formed EU to which Eastern European countries looked. It was the EU which entrenched democracy, prosperity and peace in the east. By tying their economies to each other these countries secured permanent peace between their peoples.
Brexit has seen the Brexitists rip these economic ties to pieces. And this is why their Brexit is accompanied by belligerent rhetoric and warships in the Channel. Because when countries do not work with their neighbours they end up working against them. And that is to everyoneâs detriment.
At least the mighty EU will outlive the scandal riven failed Tory Party. Party being the operative word.
January 22, 2022
@Andy; Your second paragraph makes my point better than I did myself! The current problems stem from EU expansionism, a FTA with ex Warsaw pact countries by all means, inward investment by all means, but not integration into a supranational organization that has never disguised wanting to become a Pan-European Federal entity (on large single country). The EU did exactly what the Kremlin had been scared of happening at the end of WW2. EU, and by extension NATO, involvement in Ukraine has been one nation to many for them.
As for Brexit, I voted to Remain, for various reasons, but having seen how utterly nasty Eurocrats are when they do not get their own way (should have beloved what my Irish relations and friends told me…), had there been that often pleaded for ‘confirmatory referendum’ I would have voted Leave, had there been my suggested “How to leave” referendum I would have voted to leave on WTO terms.
January 22, 2022
Plague Island…. Have you seen France’s covid infection numbers recently?
January 22, 2022
YEP -three to four times ours.
January 22, 2022
I have seen Franceâs Covid infection rates. They are very high.
I also note that – despite high infections -France has significantly fewer deaths than us
Must be because it has a much better vaccination rate, a better health system and Covid passports.
January 22, 2022
Andy. It might be all that garlic.
January 22, 2022
we put death due to Covid for a broken neck after a RTA.
very high – 3 or 4 times anybody elses’s.
January 22, 2022
Yes, France, does seem to have better heath system than us, Andy. But France and the UK have been alternating for most of the last year as to who had more Covid deaths, if you look at Ourworldindata. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths
France has been doing better over the last week, UK for the four weeks before that, France doing better in the autumn, and UK doing better back last spring. Overall, pretty much kif-kif as I think you people in France say! As so often, Covid deaths don’t really seem to correlate with anything else, so it’s just as well we’re moving on from Covid now and trying to get on with our lives… aren’t we?
January 22, 2022
Different ways of counting, as in Germany.
January 22, 2022
Andy : âThe EU doesnât have ambitions over Ukraine â beyond ensuring Ukraine can determine its own future.â
Of course it does. Just check the EUâs own website for expansion.
Our Europhile, globalist PM, Mr. Cameron, in 2013 gave a speech in Kazakhstan saying he wanted the EU to extend all the way âfrom the Atlantic to the Uralsâ.
Andy : âMost of the central and Eastern European countries which are not in the EU are seeking to join it.â
Of course they are. Itâs an easy way to obtain money from the EUâs net contributors to the EU budget, such as the UK taxpayers, and for the ruling elites to benefit personally from the EUâs rampant corruption.
If it wasnât for the EUâs desire to enlarge eastwards I expect the UK would still be a member of the EU.
Democracy is a threat to communist ruling elites in Russia and the EU.
January 22, 2022
I didn’t realise Russian oligarchs were communists, so thank you Richard, for clarifying this. It’s good to know communists are running e.g. Gazprom, and can’t be interested in capitalism and trying to make profits. This is obviously why their gas would be so cheap. Yes, I get it now.
January 22, 2022
The Eastern European countries want to join the EU in search of a handout. Thank God we are (almost) no longer on the hook to fund the handout.
January 22, 2022
EU and success in the same sentence! Hahahaha. Deluded as well!
January 22, 2022
‘Hydrogen is some way off …’ Your very English website demonstrates very English under-statement, Sir John. The government’s hydrogen plans demand a level of scrutiny and challenge that Parliament will fail to give. We need full-speed ahead on nuclear, full coal-yards, a reconsideration of the investment appraisals for tidal, and an urgent establishment of a national reserve of frackable gas, which we can turn on whenever gas bills soar.
January 22, 2022
@S_W; You don’t “frack” gas, you fracture rock seams, that hopefully then release trapped methane, but is as much wizardry as it is a science, a bonus to any energy mix, re opening coal seams and then making coal gas is probably a more reliable plan.
January 22, 2022
why not both…
January 22, 2022
You sure Jerry?
A quick web search “fracking for gas” shows many articles saying that gas or oil is released by the fracking process.
67% of natural gas and 50% of the oil in the USA is produced this way it says in one article.
January 22, 2022
P2; Yes I am sure. Try actually reading what @Sea_Warrior and I actually said, now compare that to what you said above, indeed I’m sure there there are many articles about âfracking for gasâ. Perhaps you should have read a few of those articles before posting your reply…
January 22, 2022
You said “you dont frack gas” and “you release trapped methane”
I showed that was wrong and gave proof as in America.
January 23, 2022
@P2; You can not “frack gas”, you frack the rocks containing the gas, thus releasing the gas or oil, your grasp of basic physics is pitiful. It is the same basic principle to how hydraulic brakes work on your car, and why the removal of all gases from the hydraulic lines is essential for them to work correctly.
What you pasted from your search actually says âfracking FOR gasâ.
Once again all you have done is prove that old adage about leading stubborn mulls to plentiful water, but them still dying from dehydration, either that or you are just trolling once again, is it your hobby?…
January 23, 2022
That is true Jerry, you frack the rock.
That releases the gas and oil.
You said originally that wasn’t the case.
January 24, 2022
@P2; “That is true Jerry, you frack the rock.”
So why did you argue the point when I pointed out to @S_W that “You donât âfrackâ gas, you fracture rock seams”, to which you replied “Are you sure Jerry?” posting a google search result you clearly either had not read properly or did not understand, needing me you point out your error twice before the penny dropped…
“You said originally that wasnât the case.”
Stop telling porkies, I did no such thing, go read the thread again.
January 24, 2022
Your original comment I have quoted back to you several times now without you appearing to understand what you said.
You said you dont frack gas you frack rock seams which hopefully releases methane.
Oil and gas is the main result of the fracking process.
Your pedantry is unmatched on here
Would you refer to a coal miner as a rock miner?
January 22, 2022
Renewables are all âjam-tomorrowâ
The only sustainable cheap abundant energy is fossil fuels
January 22, 2022
How long does it take to plan, build and commission a nuclear power stations compared to say putting up solar panels or wind generators?
At the moment with our government and establishment it would appear that the nuclear options are maybe nuclear in maybe 10 years, or maybe never.
January 22, 2022
The fast solution is gas, oil and coal fired power stations
January 23, 2022
How long to develop the gas field or establish the mine and build the power stations?
January 23, 2022
Just reopen the one’s we closed/banned
January 23, 2022
Which gas fields were closed and where will you get the miners?
January 22, 2022
+1 S W. ‘Understatement’ I love it!
January 22, 2022
Appreciate this post concentrates on the geopolitics. Be worth a short paragraph at the end noting the other advantages of UK sourced fuel. If nothing else you can create skilled, well paid jobs outside the South East and help the ‘leveling up’ agenda.
The Britishvolt investment grant seems a sound move too. The world is going electric whether it is required or not, so let’s be at the party. Oops, perhaps not ‘party’….
January 22, 2022
The Britishvolt investment is years overdue and a fraction of what is needed. We sdhould be building 4-6 gigafactories, not just this one. There are a couple of others proposed, but the government is doing nothing to help and accelerate these. China and the EU are doing much, much more than the stupid UK government and the useless Kwarteng.
January 22, 2022
@ PeterB – no “party” is fine so long as its BYOB – bring your own battery.
January 22, 2022
Where is it getting its lithium carbonate and cobalt and nickel and graphite from? How big will the battery market be with soaring raw materials prices? Will it be bankrupted by buying supply at bubble prices on which it later makes huge losses? I do hope there are answers to these questions before we see more taxpayer cash down the drain.
January 22, 2022
There is no battle. Putin’s in charge. Germany’s energy dependent. The solution is obvious but the west is hell bent on suicide driven to that point by leaders who despise the culture and freedoms of the nation’s they lead.
The Davos grifters are destroying our moral world and BBB which John was parroting is merely a Socialist scam to assert ever greater levels of State control over who we are, what we do and what we say
Putin exposes the insincerity, stupidity and monstrous vanity of western leaders
January 22, 2022
The last line captures it precisely.
January 22, 2022
+1
Rice, boiler suits and bicycles. (and masks, which are something of a left wing fetish these days.)
January 22, 2022
The young girl on GB News made a good point yesterday, these teenagers arenât being asked to wear medical grade masks, theyâre wearing bits of cloth knocked up by their Nana over and over and over again. Which are as leaky as a colander. Teachers in primary schools arenât asking for them, so why secondary schools where the teachers donât get as close to the children as they do the younger ones?
I wear masks FP2 ones whenever Iâm indoors with lots of people I donât know or travelling on public transport. Iâm not anti-mask especially if people are feeling full of colds it wouldnât hurt them to wear one when around others, but Iâve never thought the cloth masks are any good.
January 22, 2022
One more point if the teachers are wearing higher grade masks why insist on the children wearing them too, a dentist wears one but the patient canât, a doctor wears one but the patients generally dont especially in the operating theatre or on the wards. Care workers wear them but their patients donât.
January 22, 2022
what’s a doctor? where would I find one? rarer than a humming bird sitting on a bench in Market Square, Wokingham.
January 22, 2022
Actually MT I canât complain about the doctors, I e-consult and a doctor responds, I saw her in person, she sent me for blood tests, prescribed quickly, reassessed when I had a problem, another blood test. Asked to see me again at the end of Feb. The blood test was done at my local surgery which is excellent because we used to have to go to a cattle market a 20 min drive away and wait for ages no appointment slots, treated like animals. A big improvement.
January 27, 2022
MT – Update – I’ve seen what you mean today about doctors. A colleague has a serious ear infection (only has hearing in one ear and told by her ear consultant to always get referred with earache) couldn’t get an appointment today at all even though she phoned 111 at 7 am and her surgery and stressed how much pain she was in. Private GP appt secured – severe ear infection – take care not to burst her only hearing eardrum. Pathetic.
January 22, 2022
Porridge perhaps is rather more likely in the UK. With an extra few bowls of it to fuel the bike transport and to keep you shivering (so as to keep you from freezing) when you cannot afford the heating bills.
January 22, 2022
Spot On…we’re dancing to Putin’s tune
January 22, 2022
I’d have said cowering.
January 22, 2022
Excellent. +1
January 22, 2022
DOM, +1, I do like your accurate and pithy brevity.
January 22, 2022
Mr Putin must believe that Europe will be dependent on Russian gas for the foreseeable future and perhaps he is right. Meanwhile, what I understand to be one of the biggest gas deposit finds in the world today stands abandoned in limbo. This is on the Mozambique/Tanzanian border and is almost ready to pump gas but the area has been taken control of by Islamic State and those countries seem incapable of driving them out. There is no support from the Uk, EU or US to remove IS from this area to help stabilise world gas supply.
But there is no excuse for not developing UK domestic energy supply, gas, oil and coal, in view of the drama being played out in Uktaine. NO EXCUSE.
January 22, 2022
I agree.
We need people with honesty and courage to say; “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” If this were to be done I am sure much of what our kind host writes about and we wish would be acted upon. Alas, we have stubborn halfwits who cannot see a helping hand as just that – a helping hand.
January 22, 2022
âISâ being Exxon/Mobil, ENI, Rosneft, Qatar Petroleum and the Mozambican ENH, I suppose?
furtherafrica.com, 08/07/2021
January 22, 2022
No drama is being played out in Ukraine, only a psychotic frenzy being played out in the US State Department and their client media. Russians got tired of paying Ukraine billions in transit fees for the gas pipeline through that country. Who can blame them? They want to do business with Europe supplying gas via Nordstream 2 on reliable long-term contracts, cheaper than crisis-inflated spot prices. But America wants Europe to buy its liquefied natural gas at higher prices, shipped from the other side of the Atlantic. For now, Nordstream 2 is on hold because in 2019 the EU brought in a law creating difficulties for the Russian supplier, Gazprom. The drama is between Germany needing affordable gas, the US trying to stop it, and the EU by its own actions escalating the disagreement to a crisis. One more example of how we benefit from Brexit by not being tied to the EU’s arrangements, and being able to make policies for ourselves.
January 22, 2022
Just imagine WW2, weâre fighting Germany in North Africa and our politicians donât see an issue with buying fuel from them shipped via the North Sea
January 22, 2022
Exactly though you say âHydrogen is some way off as an alternative gas to meet emissions targets next decade and beyondâ. But we have no hydrogen mines, âgreenâ hydrogen can only come from low carbon electricity. Hydrogen it is just a very inefficient, expensive and energy wasteful way of storing electricity – far better to use the electricity directly as generated in general and generate it only as needed. Hugely more expensive than methane (up to 5 or 6 time more) and requires vast sums of money to convert the network and boilers to handle and store it.
The hydrogen illusion by Samuel Furfari covers this topic quite well. The best solutions are natural gas, coal, nuclear and oil in the short to medium term (with improved efficiency wherever possible) with some wind. solar, renewables⊠where it is realistic without subsidies and market rigging and better nuclear and nuclear fusion in the longer term. Then making synthetic fuels from this cheap nuclear energy where needed for aircraft, shipping etc.
January 22, 2022
There is of course no sensible reason why these manufactured synthetic fuels (using the cheap nuclear electricity) need to be carbon free like hydrogen. Hydrocarbon fuels synthetic fuels will probably be more sensible, cheaper, safer, require less adaptation and be more convenient to manufacture, transport and store. This as a little more atmospheric CO2/Climate Alarmism is not really a serious imminent problem anyway, but also the manufacturing of these fuels would capture co2 from existing gas power plants or even from the atmosphere or biofuels.
January 22, 2022
There is of course no sensible reason why these manufactured synthetic fuels (using the cheap nuclear electricity)
…
steam, nuclear power is an insane way to make steam
January 22, 2022
Totally agree on hydrogen. Liquid fuels are far easier to store, and derive the carbon content from atmospheric CO2 if you’re really worried about its effect on climate change.
If energy is spare, use it to liquefy air that can be used to drive gas turbines later. Inefficient I know, but then so is any system that converts and then re-converts energy.
January 22, 2022
You use hydrogen with carbon monoxide to make the synthetic fuels – I have mentioned the Fischer-Tropsch process before as a pathway.
Hydrogen is an important feedstock for both hydrocarbon fuels and ammoniafor other key chemicals such as fertilzers and even as a means to store energy.
January 22, 2022
Australia’s Beetaloo (Northern Territory) is the world’s next elephant gas find. A gas discovery so large that it could run into hundreds of TCF, over time. The UK should be talking to Canberra and Darwin rather than allowing Japan and China (Jemena) to snaffle its output.
Reply Much shorter pipe to produce our own
January 22, 2022
Reply to reply. Much shorter pipe, no liquification, no shipping half way round the world!
January 22, 2022
no accident or intended blockade to route.
January 22, 2022
More domestic gas production sounds a good idea, but I don’t see what good it will do consumers, if the North Sea gas producers continue as they were doing in 2021. âThe North Sea operators ….have made a killing in this crisis because theyâre getting paid at nine times more than they were last year,” according to the CEO of Ecotricty in December. North Sea gas doesn’t seem to be much cheaper to the consumer than gas from Russia or the US.
Spain has imposed a windfall tax on energy producers’ sky-high profits. I wonder why our government isn’t doing the same.
Reply More tax means less gas. We need more of it.
January 22, 2022
This continual suggestion of taxing the producers when we are short of supply must be a ruse to deflect attention away from the wrong headed taxes we already have, like VAT, the Green levies, – and the NI rise.
January 22, 2022
Not true. Taxes on petrol are 70% of the pump price. Doesnât stop the producers from producing it.
More tax means higher prices.
January 22, 2022
…and higher prices mean more tax – win win for the robinhood government
January 22, 2022
They’re exploiting an artificial shortage of gas caused by the ignorant Arts graduates running the government who have little capacity for understanding scientific matters so they don’t even try.
January 22, 2022
The artificial man-made pursuit to replace gas with renewable…..only one real result; the shortage and price hike of gas
January 22, 2022
The killing is being made by the government thanks to the already high tax rate of 62% on most North Sea production. Mr Vince of Ecotricity will be aware that the wind farms he buys from are making huge windfall profits from electricity prices that went from a weekly average as low as ÂŁ14/MWh during 2020 to in excess of ÂŁ300/MWh when he was pontificating – while collecting ROC subsidies on top, and only being taxed at 19%.
January 22, 2022
Companies directly involved in renewable-linked electricity indeed made/will be making larger profit than usual with the recent increase in gas price and subsequent increase in electricity price, given that the not-so-free consumer market did not allow such renewable-linked electricity to be sold cheaper than the gas-linked electricity.
The only potentially positive impact is that people like Dale Vince appear to be investing these profits into further development of renewables (e.g., Ecotricityâs project to bring geothermal energy to around 10,000 houses in Cornwall some time in 2022-2024; ecotricity.co.uk âEcotricity to power homes with geothermal energy in UK firstâ, 04/01/2021).
January 22, 2022
And paying a lot more tax into European and UK governments
Every cloud eh hef
January 28, 2022
I do not understand. Ecotricity is a British company. What is wrong with it paying more tax to the UK government?
Youâre strange sometimes. Must be the urge to comment whatever the topic, eh?
January 22, 2022
We are still locked into the EU’s policy of energy-interdependence and the UN’s policy of “green” lunacy.
Until we are free of both, which is perfectly possible with our own gas, shale, oil and coal reserves (as well as the sporadic input from the windmills) we will not have energy security or cheap, reliable energy.
But the Jolly Green Giant isn’t listening ….. or not to Sir John and Conservative voters, anyway. He must therefore be made to listen – and that’s only a matter of time (if he remains in No.10 long enough to get the message).
January 22, 2022
Well..no worries.
The latest climate lunacy involves an interview from someoneâs conservatory claiming that conservatories must be banned because they overheat.
I assume that the idiot government has swallowed this and is legislating accordingly?
Halt!
If conservatories really do act as a furnace to the rest of the house thenâŠâŠ
Hooray! We need no more gas âŠ.
Bring back the conservatory!! đ„
January 22, 2022
Everhopeful. Yes I saw this. Hands off I say. My conservatory provides some nice heat during the sunny days if Autumn winter and spring. Ok it gets hot in the summer but I close all the blinds and open the windows and doors which I do in the home anyway and it’s ok. Where do they find these morons?
January 22, 2022
I saw that too. They were even knocking bi-fold doors. We have bifold doors, and being able to open up a full wall (almost) to the outdoors in good weather is worth it’s weight in gold. Hands off!
January 22, 2022
err….usually the Green party?
January 22, 2022
FUS
Indeed a properly designed Conservatory with sensible insulation, ventilation and heating works well all year round.
The problem with most Conservatories is that they are designed, purchased and built at the lowest cost possible by the owners, so it is no surprise that they then do not work well or efficiently.
Ours has been used for the last 30 years, as our dining room, and as a meeting venue for a local charitable organisation.
No different from many other products/services, you usually get what you pay for.
January 22, 2022
+1
My view too!
It was someone who (honestly) conducted the interview from her conservatory!!
She claimed she would be keeping it because it was already there when she bought the house.
January 22, 2022
With this government its a case of what they’re not banning
January 22, 2022
Is that a project fear I see before me ⊠brought to you by the Telegraph, Express, Mail and could it be some OTT âsnowflakeâ-style reactions?
January 22, 2022
Sorry if I scared you
January 22, 2022
+1
Bottle parties might escape?
January 22, 2022
Yes. The benefits of independence and self-sufficiency are self-evident. So why is that successive Conservative-led governments do not understand that and have instead made us dependent upon other countries? And how will you and the sane of your fellow MPs put this right?
January 22, 2022
+1 brilliant post
January 22, 2022
The Why is obvious :
It’s the Green Crap agenda that is driving everything, to the extent of imperiling our strategic interests in a fruitless effort to show an example to other countries like China. Instead it is demonstrating precisely the opposite.
It would be a joke if the consequences for the UK are not going to be so serious.
As a result, the only people who are laughing are the Chinese -at us.
January 22, 2022
A bit late asking for decisions on future investment to be made at 23:58 hours, the day before zero hour…
It is now becoming very clear that “The Market” has done nothing to keep energy prices down, with much of the UK’s remaining oil and gas reserves needing either a high world prices to make commercial extraction economical viable [1] or massive long term state subsidies/contracts. It also makes the scope of the “Oil and Gas (Enterprise) Act” of 1982, to enable BNOC to be split and part sold off, look rather rash.
[1] if these gas reserves are cheap and easy to extract why have they not been tapped already
January 22, 2022
The ‘Market’ does not keep energy prices down – quite the reverse. In the old days companies would get together and form cartels. Now that is not necessary with modern technology as everyone can see what everyone else is charging and prices creep ever higher. When competition came along in the shape of small companies, a shakeout was needed, so the gas producers raised the price through the roof and the minnows who bought supplies on the spot market went bust allowing prices to skyrocket. Had there not been a cap we would already have seen the biggest increases and this is yet to come. The biggest suppliers hedge their costs up to 3 years in advance, and this was once used as an excuse not to lower prices when oil and gas prices went down. Now they are creaming it off. This is why some are suggesting a windfall tax to help the lower paid, who the Tories have not cared about in years.
January 22, 2022
Prices for gas are set by what buyers will pay in a market where supply is constrained, and buyers have foolishly narrowed their ability to switch to substitutes. They are not being set by producers, as they were when OPEC dictated a price of say $34/bbl for oil.
Small retailers established themselves under rules foolishly set by OFGEM that exempted them from having to charge for some of the green subsidies, and did not require them to be adequately capitalised to finance a proper hedging programme. Both features gave them a competitive advantage in falling markets, allowing them to undercut existing suppliers. Being unhedged in a rising market when capped by OFGEM is a sure route to losses.
Larger retailers will have hedged mainly on the basis of the commitments they made to customers to supply at fixed prices, and those in turn will have been limited by the willingness of producers and traders to offer forward hedges. Unfortunately the OFGEM cap imposes a requirement to hedge what is in effect a gigantic call option, and as prices move higher it results in higher demand that leads to a self-reinforcing price spiral, concentrating demand to meet the hedging requirement. It has contributed to prices being higher than they otherwise would have been, with price volatility adding substantially to the cost of hedging the cap.
January 23, 2022
So basically its back to the ‘big 6’ and no competition. Great. Just wait to see what happens.
January 23, 2022
We will only get competition once the rules don’t mean that the most expensive generators get preferential right to supply, and the least costly are treated as a last resort who then charge for all the time they spend sitting idle, and when oil and gas companies are permitted to develop our own resources. It is fundamental supply where competition is lacking. Retailing is not a big margin business – in fact it’s a loss maker.
January 22, 2022
Fracking was refused permission as were oil exploration sites in the UK
The market was wanting to go ahead.
It would have led to enough gas for the UK not have to import gas on world markets.
Like USA who are self sufficient and where gas and petrol and oil is very much cheaper than UK and Europe.
The Market you talk of is also restricted by the aims of the Climate Change Act and our net zero policy and a raft of complex subsidies.
January 22, 2022
@Peter2; You totally missed my point, as usual, the “market” was failing long before the Climate Change Act, and long before Fracking was an serious option, hence why OFFER & Ofgas (eventually merged as Ofgem) had to be created as pre-privatization price controls were being phased out around twenty years ago.
Fracking needs a high oil/gas price for it to be economical, unless highly subsidised, and if a govt is going to go down that road there are better ways to use subsidies. Did you not notice how, when the USA was going big on Fracking about eight years ago, because the world oil price was high, it only took OPEC to increase production and thus slash prices for many Fracking site to halt work.
Also, as with conventional well drilling, Fracking is speculative by nature, yes the science says oil or gas in sufficient reserves should be in the location but until the well is tapped or fracked no one actually knows. By comparison, the UK has known reserves of coal, knows how to access them, we also know how to build very safe nuclear power stations, and no they do not necessarily have to be build to the latest design. Given that the UK is fast approaching zero hour for our future our energy needs do we speculate on Fracking, and Renewables, or do we cut the eco cra…sorry, nonsense, and go for known-known’s?
January 22, 2022
Where is your proof that the market was failing long before the Climate Change Act?
Fracking permissions in the UK have been refused.
Companies were ready and willing.
January 23, 2022
@P2; If a free market needs statutory regulation then by definition that market has failed,. QED. As for Fracking, coal extraction licenses have also been refused, even though companies are also ready and willing, your point was what exactly?
January 23, 2022
So every market has therefore failed.
Name a market that has no regulation.
My original point was that if permission to frack or extract coal or extract oil had been given it would have taken place.
January 23, 2022
If you look at a long term gas price for Henry Hub in the USA, you will see that prices occasionally get down to $2/MMBtu before soon bouncing back again. That is the sort of level at which production gets shut in. To describe it as high is ridiculous. It’s about 0.5p/kWh. Current prices are around twice that, and production has been booming to provide a large export surplus which has provided 75% or more of our LNG imports in recent weeks.
January 22, 2022
So your strategy is that we put our heads between our backsides goodbye?
January 22, 2022
@dixie; I suggested no such thing.
January 22, 2022
Why have they not been tapped? Because the government refuses development permission and indicates it prefers not to use oil and gas until it is forced to.
January 22, 2022
@Mark; Your comment rather proved my point!
January 22, 2022
I don’t imagine our decision makers will take any of this into account, or learn anything from the above comments – Net-Zero comes first, as we keep seeing.
Why is Russia portrayed as the bad guy, always?
The West has hardly been a friend to Russia so why shouldn’t Russia take some advantage from something the West badly needs. If the roles were reversed, we’d hear comments in the West suggesting Russia was a cold place anyway, why should we help them out!
January 22, 2022
Hardly been a friend? The Russians are acting according to their historical experience so why is it wrong for us to do the same. The reward for our helping out, providing support and materials via the arctic convoys, at the cost of some of our people, as well as technologies in the fight against the Germans was not at all positive and held the world to ransom for decades. Also, I believe much data and information from the covid vaccine development in the UK was freely shared with Russian researchers so things are not “simple”
The issue is not the people but the gangs in power in all countries.
I wouldn’t say the French gang have been any more friendly than the Russian gang and do we even know what the Westminster gang has been up to?
January 22, 2022
That’s going back too far — I’d trust Putin any day over Macron.
January 23, 2022
How convenient for you, my early years were marred by the cold war as were many others.
You might wish to draw the line after Salisbury but it is what is what the Russians think.
Trust one over the other? I think it too dangerous to trust anyone for critical resources, Putin has shown willing to weaponise energy supply, just like Macron.
January 22, 2022
Off topic please.
Insulate Britain protesters. Obstruction of the highway carries with it a power of arrest and so does criminal damage (applying superglue to any surface.)
That these people weren’t arrested is only because senior police officers didn’t want to arrest them; they didn’t want to arrest them any more than they want to arrest burglars or drug abusers.
They are fixated on hate crime and political correctness. Encouraged by the BBC which depicts people who look like me assaulting taxi drivers and blowing up mosques, beating up homosexuals and women. If it is wrong to create hate by stereotype to depict ethnic minorities doing bad things then why is it OK to depict people like me doing it ? It is no wonder senior police officers are getting brainwashed.
Remember that the Insulate Britain protests were near a time when the partying Tory Government were having ordinary people nicked for sharing coffee on park benches and the police were sending up drones to snoop on dog walkers.
This country has slipped into Left wing totalitarianism under Johnson and after twelve or so years of Tory misrule.
Why is anyone trying to save him ?
It seems a Blue Team win in the next general election matters more than the country.
January 22, 2022
Because Russia has vast natural wealth that those in the West want to get their hands on. China, surprisingly, despite its size has little natural wealth other than vast numbers of people and cheap labour. It needs countries like Australia to supply it with all the minerals (eg Iron Ore) for it to grow.
January 22, 2022
which is why China is doing its best to secure and preferably own the world supply of rare earth minerals – the best bargaining chip for the future of the modern world.
January 22, 2022
Yep !
January 22, 2022
doing the best for their country and two fingers to everyone else
January 22, 2022
I think it ironic that our Prime Minister, who has no shame in certain aspects of his life, does not, like the EU, display a similar hypocrisy over Global Warming. Like a Christmas pantomime, we say gas is evil, but the EU, to display how virtuous they are, retort “Oh yes it is!” and gaily kill the planet (!) by burning lots of gas.
Presumably, even the Commissioners rightly conclude that keeping the EU office premises warm while all their citizens freeze will result in the use of piano wire and lampposts.
Partygate will seem like a mere peccadillo in comparison.
presumably. even the Commissioners
January 22, 2022
“Hydrogen is some way off”
Let’s remember that the old town gas was 50% hydrogen, obtained by the pyrolysis of coal, leaving a residue of mainly carbon – coke.
Pyrolysis of methane does a similar thing, though the technology to do this has not yet been fully promulgated by any means.
So perhaps it’s not so far off.
January 22, 2022
So far, it seems a large majority in favour of producing our own power, in whatever form that is achieved. True net zero fuel can be achieved in the various forms mentioned in previous notes.
For Godâs sake can we get on with achieving self sufficiency!!
GWC – Wokingham
January 22, 2022
And the only answer from this government, this conservation government is to continue its BAN of natural gas drilling in the North Sea and fracking in CumbriaâŠutter madness
January 22, 2022
If the West/Europe wanted to ensure that Russia did not feel economically strong enough to annexe the east of Ukraine to act as a buffer against the EUâs eastern expansion plans then it should not have made itself dependent upon Russian gas supplies.
But Mrs Merkel (ex senior member of the Russian propaganda organisation, Agitprop) has helped to make sure that Europe (or at least the EU) is dependent upon Russian gas by closing Germanyâs nuclear plants early and building Nord Stream 2.
January 22, 2022
The refusal of Herr Scholz to meet Mr Biden last week is a clear illustration of the extent to which Germany, and hence the EU, is conflicted by its Gas requirements in any reaction it may wish to make to Russia. Interesting how little we have heard about an EU military force in this latest tension.
The thing I find really frustrating about our own position, is how easy it would be for us to reduce our dependence on imported gas and coal if the Government showed any willingness to do so. Its failure shows a total disregard for the interests and security of the UK.
January 22, 2022
+1
January 22, 2022
âHydrogen is some way off as an alternative gas to meet emissions targets next decade and beyond.â
Hydrogen is of course NOT a source of energy, like coal, gas (methane), oil or even renewables such as wind. It has to be produced by energy produced from these primary sources and its production is very inefficient because water is a very stable molecule. Far better to use the electricity produced directly wherever possible.
Note that although burning hydrogen in air does not produce CO2 it does produce NOx emissions and the last time I checked this issue has not yet been solved for efficiently running electricity producing turbines.
If the efficiencies of the electrolysis of water and hydrogen gas turbines are both around 60% then the overall efficiency of a wind to electricity to hydrogen (for storage/back-up) and back to electricity would be 36%, forgetting any further losses in compression, cooling, storage, transport etc.
This would means that the Governmentâs plan for 40GW of installed wind capacity by 2030 would only produce 7GW of hydrogen gas continuously when it is further borne in mind that windmills have a capacity factor of 50%
January 23, 2022
Hydrogen is being considered as a store/carrier of energy produced at a time when it isn’t needed – as a buffer or a means to transport it. So claiming it is not a “source” as described conventionally does not alter it’s utility or value.
Electrolysis plants are closer to 80% efficient while fuel cells are closer to 60% at best so your round trip efficiency example would be closer to 48% rather than 36%.
The energy density of hydrogen is lower than natural gas and would be a factor.
January 22, 2022
I agree with your strategic goal of self sufficiency in energy and food. I would also add critical resources so we should certainly not be exporting such materials, eg gas, oil, metals etc.
Further, we need to encourage a more circular economy – to re-use, repurpose and recycle, to maximise the utility of products and recycle key materials and resources rather than waste or dispose of them.
For example, there must be encouragement and pressure on manufacturers to design for repair/maintenance, to re-manufacture, re-use components and recycle materials.
A good example is the excellent work done by University of Birimingham on recycling neodymium to make new rare earth magnets from old, a very efficient and effective process that relies on Hydrogen.
January 22, 2022
There is a huge price incentive to recycle neodymium at the moment: it hit $200,000 a tonne this week. Work in labs and projects announced to establish production outside Chinese control are all well and good, but they have to be brought to fruition. Delay and frustration is the order of the day, and hence the alarming price increases that have seen Siemens-Gamesa announce profit warnings because rising raw material costs mean it is not able to manufacture wind turbines without substantial price increases.
January 23, 2022
“The UKâs first re-manufacturing line for high-performance sintered rare earth magnets for use in electric vehicles, aerospace, renewable energy technologies and low carbon technologies will be developed by the University of Birmingham” reported in March 2021 to be at the Tyseley Energy Park.
The plant is being established, is being brought to fruition. This is not simply a lab project and it has the support of the UK supply chain and it will allow a degree of independence from Chinese control by retaining the processed critical materials here.
We need to support this kind of R&D to industrial application activity for all our critical materials, but it will mean changes in attitudes away from the dig-use-throw away culture and demands for “cheap”-energy-at-any-cost.
January 22, 2022
Off topic, I thought it might be helpful to send the following email to Tory MPs, under the heading:
“Absurd Irish protocol based on absurd Irish premise”
Previously I mooted that perhaps the House of Commons could be asked for a view on this question:
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/01/04/how-much-renewable-power-does-the-uk-now-produce/#comment-1288874
but now seems a good time to ask just those MPs who may soon be choosing a new Prime Minister.
Here is the text of the email:
“It became our firm position that any checks or controls anywhere on the island would constitute a hard border.”
So revealed the former Irish diplomat Rory Montgomery, who was centrally involved in the Irish approach to the Brexit negotiations.
https://drb.ie/articles/the-professional/
Can you believe that two UK Prime Ministers were prepared to go along with that patent nonsense, with the first saying “OK, to make sure that all the goods we export across the land border into the Irish Republic and the EU Single Market will conform to EU requirements let’s check and control all the goods we import into the UK through Felixstowe and Heathrow and other points of entry”, oh and “We will also routinely check all businesses across the UK to make sure that they are following the EU (“common”) rule book as supervised by the EU Commission and the EU court”, and the second saying “No, no, that’s wrong, we will only check and control all the goods we import into Belfast and other points of entry into Northern Ireland”, oh and “We will also single out just Northern Ireland to be left behind under continued EU Single Market rules, we can tell them that they are lucky to get that ‘best of both worlds’ which we have decided to deny to businesses in Great Britain.”
So what are you going to do if you have to choose a new leader? Give us another Prime Minister who thinks that we must have a “deep and special relationship” with the EU, and who is prepared to sell all of us out in order to get it and give it to her friends in the CBI, or another Prime Minister with his own vanity project of a near worthless “Canada style” free trade deal with the EU, for which he is prepared to sell some of us out and potentially break up the country?
Or will you try and find a decent honest realistic, and above all patriotic, alternative who will tell the Irish government and the EU where to get off?
Well, good luck with finding any such person in the senior ranks of the so-called “Conservative and Unionist Party”, but you won’t know unless you try.”
January 22, 2022
Dear Sir John, I agree a 100% with making the UK not dependent on the supply of energy from friend nor foe.
Drax power station burning wood chippings being classed as CO2 neutral sums up government(s) virtual signaling being green has got us into our energy mess ( or should I say biomass mess). Chop down trees and burn them. Not even a local forest but shipped from America- what a green joke. With coal you don’t need to crop down a forest to use it. Agreed not the long term solution as we are basically generating too much CO2 for nature to reabsorb at present. But other gasses are more off a threat, and removing the rainforest bit by bit each year don’t help the CO2 absorption balance.
However please do not lay this problem a Russia’s door step and Ukraine. The problems these two countries have are there own business to sort out. I think in a round about way you have said this. Let’s face it America wants to supply Europe with Gas and stop Russia doing so. It’s all about profit – America’s . They go to war to achieve business objectives nothing to do with spreading Democracy.
The EU and America started the ball rolling by aiding and abetting the overthrow of the democratically elected Government of Ukraine. They did not like Kiev leaning to the East rather than the West.
If the West does not want Russian Gas it is no surprising they are going to sell it elsewhere. Capitalism is not Democracy. Except in the West. Elsewhere the same thing is classed as aggression, not business competition.
January 22, 2022
Energy independence is a must, but certain people like George Osbourne believe intertwining interests prevent the need for other countries, (like China), to invade us. We just surrender our energy independence to those we are most scared of? Shall we discuss these clever globalist ideological tricks some politicians dream up to cover up for selling us out? because until such traitorous ideology is challenged nothing will change.
January 22, 2022
ed2 :
China doesn’t need to invade us.
They will buy up everything, including people.
January 22, 2022
ed2 :
China doesnât need to invade us.
They will buy up everything, including people.
…
and some those people will justify it by globalist Game theory excuses
January 22, 2022
Also off topic, nicely done:
https://facts4eu.org/news/2022_jan_ni_border_solution#
“This is not just a border solution … This is an M&S border solution”
January 22, 2022
Osbourne sold us out to China, he explained why and went on to describe some globalist Game Theory to justify it.
January 22, 2022
Perhaps there is value in asking whether the current template for UK management remains the best possible in the 21St century. Factors I consider poor are as follows, while not ignoring the basic tenets of democracy.
1. Too many of our MPs are career politicians with little life experience. Far too many are lawyers who seem largely intent on keeping lawyers employed.
2. The UKs electoral system creates polarity and fails to create government representing the wishes of the majority of the electorate. Thus failing the principal of democracy.
3. The Civil Service have grown beyond being the scribes of government. They are more the guarantee of continuity, their own continuity,
a barrier to fundamental change, possibly a force with its own momentum. A force that bye passes democracy and tries to perpetuate continuity of their own norm. They are undoubtedly intelligent, but hardly educated in the disciplines essential in the 21st century.
4. We must question the duration of any given government. Fixing the duration is not my intent, there must always be a means of dismissal for any government that has exceeded its useful life. However consider this, if Toyota changed their management ( Directors, Managers,and Supervisors.) every five years would they be the force they are in the world automotive industry. I strongly doubt it. Toyota do it the way they do because they need to be financially successful, and it works. I would argue that GB Ltd needs the same longevity/ continuity for it to be a successful entity of benefit to its population.
Can I suggest we start thinking outside the box, with the aim of giving ourselves the best chance of success in this century.
January 22, 2022
It is inevitable that so long as we have ‘Boris’ as PM holding to his wife’s, and probably his own too, fanatical ‘green’ climate change orders and obsessions, our country will continue on its road to total bankruptcy and even more control by foreign powers.
We could easily be lost in a matter of days if Russia interrupts our sea imports of gas and oil. It could do it without war, just intimidation of competing countries and suppliers.
Most of our industries on land are foreign owned too, resulting from a long term Tory policy of prostituting us and selling everything we own.
If ‘Boris’ cared he would abandon his green and these policies. If he won’t then he must be abandoned.
January 22, 2022
Angela Rayner is hot, sassy, female and has bite.
She is also of the right age.
The Tories are in trouble.
January 23, 2022
I read that the government is considering removing at least some of the green subsidies from energy bills. It is however simply shifting the burden to general taxation, instead of seeking ways to reduce the subsidies and get the renewables producers who most benefit from them – those on ROCs – to accept that subsidy is not necessary when market prices are so high. I have already made two suggestions: a sliding scale, whereby the amount of subsidy is tapered as energy prices rise (which should really have been built into the original contracts), and deferment of payment to renewables producers (and collection of the subsidy from consumers) while prices remain high. There is no need to shift CFDs, which are now tending to average out lower than market prices, and therefore should generate refunds for consumers. I note that they have yet to realise that carbon taxes ought to be reduced, having ignored the mechanism built into the legislation for two successive months, let alone any other measures – these are adding to consumer bills by adding to cost for electricity from CCGT generators unnecessarily: gas is expensive, so the tax is not needed to encourage minimisation of gas use. Ministers need to understand that the only practical way to reduce gas bills in the short term is to replace gas by coal fired electricity generation as much as we can. That may also help to reduce the sky high costs of system balancing, which reached ÂŁ2.35bn in 2021, and escalated alarmingly in the second half of the year with November alone costing almost ÂŁ600m.
January 23, 2022
Some say Gavin Williamson kept a big spider in a jar to intimidate Mps.
January 25, 2022
I read this and agree with it: I hope you and your readers will also.
The spectacular volatility of energy pricing in Britain makes the waffle about Net Zero complete nonsense and the strategy bankrupt as things stand. It is gas which takes the slack every time.
Yes, we can add more and more renewables but they must considerably exceed peak demand in their output volume and all excess over demand must be stored in battery arrays or converted to other forms which can be released.
We need a proper timetable for new renewables and to put the brakes on taking fossil fuels and nuclear out of the mix.
We also need to preserve our domestic fossil fuel industry and ensure we have access to an independent source without dependency on imports. That means the North Sea and a review of fracking potential.
All of this must be sequenced and demonstrably achievable on a publicly available document and the government should make a virtue of it. Subsidy to renewables (which are not being built as charities) that are larded on existing energy bills – must stop.