I do not think Russia will launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia will recognise that the main population of Ukraine outside the eastern cities is very hostile to Russia, would offer strong resistance to invasion and refuse to accept attempted rule. Crimea has accepted Russian rule as there was  a much larger pro Russia population in that part of the country when Russia marched in without resistance.
Russia pretends to believe that NATO is a threat to it, yet there is no evidence that NATO has ever wanted to expand its territory by military means. All NATO troops and weapons deployed in the eastern member states are there for defence only. NATO makes no territorial claims. It is true after the split up of the USSR some states asked to join NATO. They were not made to by an alliance often reluctant to accept new members given  the  burden they bring to the collective defence.
Russia will doubtless wish to foment tensions in Donbas further where there are more pro Russian citizens unhappy with Kiev rule. France and Germany tried to negotiate a peace in eastern Ukraine with Russia and the Kiev government. The  Minsk  Agreements sought a solution of devolved government for Donbas but the elections did not take place and we still await a constitutional settlement. It is best for that group to try again to adjust the  Minsk Agreements to current conditions and get on with the  implementation.
I am not surprised the Foreign Secretary got nowhere with the Russian Foreign Minister. I hope she now returns to end the talks with the EU and get on with putting in a solution  to the Irish Protocol issue.
February 11, 2022
Yes agreed.
Frazer Nelson today:- âTo have taxes at a 71-year high and the largest NHS waiting list ever would represent abject failureâ indeed and not just the NHS either but a very poor policing & justice system, second rate schools, many worthless degrees, poor roads (often being deliberately blocked and/or constricted), poor or often non existent public transport, no real control of our borders and an NHS dental service that is a pathetic sick joke too.
February 11, 2022
What has this got to do with today’s topic ?
Reply I post a lot of your comments. If you do not like my moderation go to another site.
February 11, 2022
Come on John ; that is a fair comment and I don’t take offense at anything you want to moderate. It is your site , however I try to keep it in context and there are many things I want to talk about which don’t come up , but lifelogic has been saying the same thing over and over again never being satisfied with the strain we are all put under.
Reply What topics would you like me to write about that I do not mention?
February 11, 2022
Sir J.
You could tell us what your opinion is of the PM’s suitability for the tasks facing the Nation, and who is his most capable replacement, should Bunter be removed, one way or another, for obvious incompetence!
February 11, 2022
Reply to reply
Your site, your rules. But those rules are meant for all and should not be applied at random. Otherwise you end up with situations like Partygate !
February 11, 2022
I was going to write a remark about repealing the Coronavirus Act 2020 but in order to avoid upsetting Mark any further I decided to refrain from doing so.
February 11, 2022
Why is the UK getting involved in talks about Ukraine and even worse sending troops and weapons there? It is of no concern to our citizens. Itâs just an excuse for our politicians to posture on the world stage and try to gain favour with the United States. It is also a very convenient distraction from more pressing internal concerns.
The last paragraph in the article is correct. Stay out of Ukraine. Stop the endless talking to the EU. Take action to solve the Northern Ireland issue.
February 11, 2022
The NI issue can be solved in a few words.
The whole UK should join the SM and CU – exactly as the likes of Hannan said that “no one” was considering leaving before the referendum.
The whole Leave campaign was a tissue of lies to hide another agenda.
February 11, 2022
The single market and the customs union both come at great expense to the taxpayer and with political attachments. No thank you.
February 11, 2022
NHL
He actually said…”nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market”
And that is true.
The UK still has its place in the SM just like all the other nations on Earth who sell into Europe.
South Korea, China, Japan, America and many others sell billions of dollars worth of goods into Europe without being members of the EU
PS
Re read the leaflet sent to every home.
February 11, 2022
I agree with the last sentence Peter, we do not need to go to the Ukraine to find enemies as the EU situated the other side of the channel is certainly not our friends despite our PM referring to them as friends.
We must support our real friends in NI and leave the eu on WTO terms.
February 11, 2022
And what about the oil and gas regulator ordering Cuadrilla to concrete their bore holes for shale gas. This is state sponsored sabotage and should be stopped immediately.
As for the NIP it’s a disgrace that we are still talking.
Action is needed.
February 11, 2022
Those actions are against the wealth and health of the people of the UKâŠthis government is working with the foreign bodies of the UN & EU to stop us using our own natural resources âŠthat traitorous
Action is needed and I just donât mean a HoC urgent questionâŠMPs should now rebel
February 11, 2022
Macron has announced today that France will build six new nuclear reactors, all while Britain pumps money into unreliable wind and solar. Macron said “The time of nuclear renaissance has come,” as he announced the plans
While this government is playing with childs wind mills
February 11, 2022
So when the sun doesn’t shine, and the wind doesn’t blow at the correct speed, and we are forced to buy electricity from France and in return we will take all his unwanted immigrants and he can take all our fish!
February 12, 2022
You really should have mentioned that he is also planning 50 new offshore wind farms……in the same speech
February 11, 2022
+many
Also off topic ( or is anything really that?)
âTheyâ are already trying to ramp up another epi or pan demic.
HIV this time.
Only a MUCH worse type. Naturally đ€
And an MRNA jab just waiting!!
February 11, 2022
LL – Yes the same subjects which everyone with any common sense is aware of but keep it up. These are the basics of our society and maybe, just maybe someone??? in government will pick up on your valid points. Somehow I do not think so.
February 11, 2022
Good morning.
I do not think they are pretending given their history of being invaded. With the exception of Finland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Afghanistan, all under the Soviet era, I cannot recollect once where Russia has invaded another country. How many countries have we invaded in the last 25 years ? Quite a few.
What is the point of NATO now that the Soviet Union is no more ? Who is the enemy ?
With the EU moving to full union it is natural that they will want to create a military of their own for defence. It is high time that now the UK has left the EU that we support them in their desire for a United States of Europe. One way to do this is for the UK, USA, Norway and Iceland to leave NATO and form a new alliance. This can include Canada, Australia, S. Korea and others.
Leave the Europeans to be ‘Finlandised’ as Germany and France clearly wants a better relationship with Russia.
Stop yanking the Bears chain.
February 11, 2022
+1
But maybe someone else is âpretendingâ?
February 11, 2022
Mark: during the Soviet era, Russia also occupied at various stages Albania, Bulgaria, East Germany, Poland, Romania, Yugoslavia, the Baltic States, the ‘Stans and the eastern quarter of Austria. Other than one delusional French Emperor and one German monster, how many Europeans have attempted to invade and conquer Russia in the past few centuries?
February 11, 2022
The Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Swedish Empire, the French, the Germans, even at times the UK. That’s ignoring the Japanese, Chinese, Mongols, Ottomans as not being European, and not going back to Viking times.
February 11, 2022
Sweden(early 18th c) and Poland(early 17th c) both tried to invade Russia.Both failed;as a result,Sweden was stripped of it’s Baltic empire and Poland was wiped off the map.Bulgaria and Romania were Hitler’s allies.Austria,like Germany was occupied in conjunction with the western allies.The ‘stans were Soviet creations,carved out of Imperial Russian Turkestan.I may be wrong-haven’t got time to check-don’t recall Albania or Yugoslavia being occupied by the Soviets,they both fell out with Moscow in the postwar period.
February 11, 2022
If NATO hasn’t got an enemy then some will simply invent one.
The humiliation suffered by Truss is what brexit Britain can expect on the world stage wherever it might try to intercede from now on too.
February 11, 2022
perhaps it is the interceding that is all wrong. Who would take any notice of our net zero “leadership” that had a brain? perhaps going around like a mini America can now cease??
We have a greater influence than the German EU, but real superpowers ignore us all.
February 11, 2022
Not posted by me.
However, Russia will not have much regard for U.K. threats but regard them as US alliesâ sabre rattling. Truss makes it sound as though another battle of Kursk is on the cards.
February 11, 2022
Didnât the Russia Federation under the leadership of Putin invade South Ossetia Georgia and the Crimea Ukraine
February 11, 2022
Yes, good point. And I am glad you made it because there is a theme to all this.
Where Russians’ form a sizable proportion of the populace, especially in one region as you mentioned, then Putin will act to protect them.
February 11, 2022
Glen
All sounds a bit like the excuse Hitler made for his adventures many moons ago, that Germans were being persecuted in other Countries, so he had to protect them.
Amazing how history often repeats itself !.
February 11, 2022
The United Nations passed a Moldova-backed resolution in 2018 calling for an immediate and complete withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Transnistria. Moldovaâs pro-European President Maia Sandu has called for Russian troops to withdraw from Transnistria since her election in 2020. Putin doesn’t care…..no one is stopping him !
February 11, 2022
South Ossetia was attacked by Georgia-a move which resulted in fighters from North Ossetia-Alania(a Republic of the Russian federation)being drawn in to defend their brethren.Abhazia likewise was attacked by Georgia and likewise attracted fighters from Chechnya to fight the Georgians.The Georgian advance resulted in peacekeepers being killed and Russia stepped to prevent what could have been a general conflagration across the Caucasus which the USA and UK would have been happy to encourage-given their designs on the Causasus.Designs which stretch back a long way-in the 1820s Britain encouraged -and subsidized-Persia to invade the N Caucasus to recapture territory lost in an earlier conflict.It was a disaster;the Persian army was annihilated,Russia crossed the Caucasus and took Tabriz,the old Mongol capital of Persia,the Persians sued for peace and were forced to cede even more territory.
By the way Truss declined to answer a question from Russian media yesterday as to why,back in Mrs Thatcher’s day, the UK was so keen to openly support Chechen separatists and (terrorists) but now chooses to disregard the interests of the separatists in E Ukraine.
February 11, 2022
No.
February 11, 2022
Sad to see our host reduced to acting as a stenographer for the execrable Atlantic Council.
February 12, 2022
“For demockery”
February 11, 2022
Conflicts and the amassing of troops generally spreads plagues.
Whatever are they thinking?
150,00 Russian troops on the border. The army not depleted then?
All those âparticlesâ being puffed out. All that CO2 too.
Surely things other than war should be on the mind during a pandemic?
February 11, 2022
It is mortifying when you have a Foreign Secretary who states that Russia has no claim to territories such as Voronezh and Rostov only to be reminded by the British Ambassador that they are within Russiaâs borders! Credibility? Who needs it? She should channel her Pork and Cheese routine đ
Zorro
February 11, 2022
As I alluded to in earlier posts. If you are not very good at your job, surround yourself with lesser mortals, it will make you look like a Titan with even trying.
February 11, 2022
Probably a âslip of the tongueâ but like so many machine politicians positioning themselves as competent, a safe pair of hands etc they get found out when the going gets tough.
Truss has demonstrated her ambition far outweighs her ability. No doubt excellent credentials as next Tory leader!
February 11, 2022
To coincide with her victorious saunter through Moscow the FT wrote a puff piece yesterday:
“How Liz Truss transformed herself from also-ran to potential PM.Even critics who dismiss Britain’s Foreign Minister as Thatcher-lite say counting her out may be a mistake.”
Hilarious!
February 11, 2022
And a few days earlier she seemed to think the Baltic States were on the Black Sea.A total plank-I watched the live stream of the press conference,she replied to every question with the same prepared few lines delivered robotically;no wonder Grandmaster Lavrov walked off in studied exasperation.
It is because she is so thick that “they”-the people who matter-would like to see her as PM.
February 11, 2022
Both the Foreign Secretary and the defence secretary have had talks with the Russians, and they only had one goal; to acknowledge if Russia is going to invade the UkraineâŠ.they both came back with waffle
February 11, 2022
All these types of situations does beg the question about the degree we have cut our military forces? The last round of cuts when it was stated that our forces face different scenairos and it is not all about troops on the ground seems to be a little bit hasty when such large numbers of a possible opposition can be assembled on other countries borders. The only thing that has not changed is somehow we will get involved.
We always have and always will.
February 11, 2022
No food security.
No energy security.
No security full stop.
And all avoidableâŠif the will had been there.
February 11, 2022
Here we have a desecrated barracks sold off for housing (ÂŁ8 million) years ago.
All around the area there was masses of housing for militaryâŠall sold to buy to letters.
A beautiful park was destroyed with many promises of Health Centres etc. A whole avenue of trees felled at dawn. Two military artefacts âdisappearedâ.
And instead of the promises more houses and two truly ghastly supermarkets.
U.K. has been put up for sale over many years.
Has Russia done the same?
February 11, 2022
Indeed.
Jeremy Warner today.
âThe energy crunch is only going to get worse. Thanks to vote-chasing politicians and populist gimmicks, investment has completely collapsed.â
What did out halfwitted politicians like Ed Milliband, Cameron, May, Boris, Kwatang and the joke Lord Debden (Gummer) and his mad Climate Committee expect would happen?
February 11, 2022
+1
Agree.
The policies are soooo disastrous that one naturally suspects dodgy motives.
Or at least, how could they have planned more effectively to bring us to our knees?
February 11, 2022
Agree – All avoidable with a real Tory government….haven’t seen one for decades
February 11, 2022
+1
February 12, 2022
how would we recognise one?
February 11, 2022
Turbo
Iâm inclined to agree with your thoughts. Why keep reducing the size of our armed forces, âbecause the future of fighting will be different,â but then send the troops out everywhere, anyway?
We have the best trained armed forces in the world, thatâs a strength to be maintained, surely? And realistically, times may change, but human nature doesnât. (Despite the best efforts of some lefties)
February 11, 2022
Difficult to fight much without a ready supply of available, on demand, diesel oil and other energy.
February 11, 2022
The Foreign Sec made a very silly attempt at self-promotion.
I do wish our âleadersâ would show a bit more dignity!
âNo plans to invade Ukraineâ she was told.
Who is whipping up all this?
February 11, 2022
Politicians who are unpopular at home, EH, shifting public attention to foreign policy. As usual.
February 11, 2022
+1
February 11, 2022
The Protocol is the solution to your Brexit.
Every Conservative MP stood for election on the basis that the Protocol was a great, oven ready deal. The public gave you a mandate of sorts – a majority in Parliament even though the vast majority of voters voted against it.
Just about every Conservative MP then voted in favour of it in Parliament. Every Brexit Party MEP voted for it in the European Parliament.
Remainers campaigned and voted against it – telling Brexitists it was a bad deal. We were abused. Called Remoaners, traitors, enemies of the people.
The attempt by Brexitists to rewrite history will not work. Brexit is your mess. You will own it. A lot of Brexitist MPs will be losing their jobs at the next election. Thatâs one benefit of Brexit.
February 11, 2022
Agee the Protocol is the solution. The Protocol is fine, in particular Article 16 of the Protocol is fine.
So you were abused and called Remoaners, traitors, and enemies of the people by people who you personally had called ignorant racists ? What’s the problem ?
February 11, 2022
We were called ignorant racists before the referendum. Indeed this caused the referendum and delivered its result.
Nothing exemplifies Remainer hatred that the archives on these pages and Andy’s rants.
Andy didn’t have his place of work shifted to Poland.
Andy didn’t have to compete with newcomers for the jobs and services that were left.
Andy protected his kids from the worst effects of it all by buying a house in a rich area and sending his kids to private school. (Mine competed directly on pure intelligence – in a deprived post code – and thrived.)
So
Andy didn’t understand Brexit.
February 11, 2022
Andy wished he had relocated to his chateaux – had years and years to do it.
He has to pay tax in UK which he tries to suggest he would not in the EU.
We have laws about hate speech which he manages to side step, would it work in France?
February 11, 2022
The thing is MT, that the tax that Andy pays all goes to fund the state pension, funding those same bloody pensioners who voted for Brexit.
February 12, 2022
Oh…..John H you gave me a good belly laugh at breakfast.
February 11, 2022
NLA Andy still doesnât understand Brexit.If he had anything to say worthwhile I may read it but most definitely not his incessant rants.Itâs so boring.Not only that he canât leave the older people and their pensions alone.Itâs disgusting and he should be banned from the site.Opinions are fine but thereâs a fine line between opinions and downright disgusting opinions and Andy loves to do the latter constantly.
February 11, 2022
You miss an important distinction.
No reasonable person says that all Leave voters are unpleasant, racist, or whatever bigots. I know plenty, and they are agreeable, fair-minded people in general. However, that kind does not demand the absolutist brexit that we find screeched for so often here.
It must be said though, that almost without exception, every right wing extremist (with all that goes with it) voted LEAVE on the other hand.
And there were probably enough of them to carry it over the line.
February 11, 2022
And every left wing extremist voted to remain
What point are you trying to make?
February 11, 2022
you live in the wrong country, its not too late, apply for emigration to somewhere that wants your outlook.
February 11, 2022
George Galloway etc. urged people to vote Leave.
They claim that the European Union is a capitalist club.
Leave attracted extremists from the Left, and virtually all of them from the Right.
February 11, 2022
You didnât read the Withdrawal Agreement. You didnât read the Protocol.
You didnât read the Conservative Party manifesto. You havenât read the Good Friday Agreement.
Hereâs an idea. Maybe you should read Article 16? It doesnât do what you think it does. But itâll be funny watching that go wrong for you too.
February 11, 2022
Oddly enough John Major disagrees. There was a lot on the news about his condemnation of Boris Johnson and boozy lockdown ‘gatherings’ in Downing Street but only in some places like this:
https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2022/02/11/news/sir-john-major-ni-protocol-arguably-one-of-the-worst-pieces-of-negotiation-that-we-have-seen-in-recent-history–2586174/
it is mentioned that he also had nothing good to say about Boris Johnson’s Irish protocol:
“THE Northern Ireland Protocol was “arguably one of the worst pieces of negotiation that we have seen in recent history”, former British Prime Minister Sir John Major has said.
In a scathing attack on Boris Johnson, Sir John also said “it does help if you sign treaties if you understand them before you sign them”.
Speaking at an Institute for Government event in London yesterday, he also claimed that the Protocol was “causing an enormous amount of trouble”.”
And it will continue to do so, potentially spelling an effective end to the Belfast Agreement and ushering in an era of resumed communal hatred and violence, to be perpetuated for yet more generations.
Paradoxically it was claimed in this old article that I came across recently:
https://news.sky.com/story/why-did-theresa-may-ditch-a-no-deal-brexit-11683841
that Theresa May abandoned her “No deal is better than a bad deal” mantra out of fear that no deal would lead to the break up of the UK.
According to advice from a senior civil servant it would need direct rule in Northern Ireland because
“The current powers granted to the Northern Irish secretary would not be adequate for the pace, breadth or controversy of the decisions needed to be taken through a no-deal exit.”
Of course there would have been no possibility of rushing through legislation to increase those powers …
Oh, but there was also George Osborne’s lie that no deal would “wipe 9% off the economy”.
February 11, 2022
Not mine.
It all started with George Osborne and his “Project Fear” and the grossly exaggerated Treasury projections of the economic impact of leaving the EU without a special trade deal, which led Theresa May to give the Irish government a veto over withdrawal arrangements.
As I said here at the time, for example on November 26 2017:
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2017/11/26/the-irish-border-with-northern-ireland/#comment-903216
“On the TV this morning it was stated that the UK government is âdesperateâ to move on to trade talks, but this would be vetoed by the Irish government unless the UK government committed to keeping the UK in both the Single Market and the Customs Union.”
“So we should now say that rather than kowtow to the stupid destructive intransigence of the EU we will fall back on WTO trade rules and only seek agreements on the practical or technical aspects of continuing trade.
That would do us some economic harm, although nowhere near as much as portrayed by the Remoaners, and it would do the other countries more economic harm, albeit it would be spread around among them, but on most projections the country which would suffer by far the greatest economic damage would in fact be Ireland.”
If Northern Ireland descends into violence, as it may do, then the finger pointing should start with him.
February 11, 2022
D C. While blame is being apportioned, Alexander Johnson, aka Boris, always had the choice of abandoning the May treachery and leaving under WTO rules. He chose the WA and now we suffer the consequences.
February 11, 2022
BOF
Whilst WTO rules were the simple option, and indeed meant a proper Brexit, there was not a majority for it in Parliament. Indeed if you remember the politicians at the time actually voted against us just leaving on WTO terms, even though the EU is a trading member of that very same organisation which has its own rules. By doing so they committed the UK to try and negotiate a deal with the EU from a very much weaker position (as we could not simply walk away) due to their own actions.
Unfortunately Boris came up with the position we are now in which Politicians (not the public) voted for, and for which they now complain.
February 11, 2022
True, but the whole public debate, pre-referendum and post-referendum, had been shaped by the longstanding establishment lie that EU membership was crucially important for our economy. If in the spring of 2016 the Treasury had come up with a more honest appraisal, saying that overall EU membership was of only marginal economic importance, and quite possibly marginally negative rather than positive, then no doubt the referendum result would have been swung more heavily in favour of withdrawal, and if Theresa May had still felt then that it was necessary to hold a general election she would have done a lot better, and Parliament would not have ruled out leaving the EU on WTO terms, and if Boris Johnson still wanted to compete with Theresa May he would not have needed to commit himself to getting a “Canada style” free trade deal, and pretend that it would be almost as good as EU membership while failing ever to provide any projection of its benefits.
February 11, 2022
It was because of the Brexit opposition in parliament that we backed ourselves into a corner and ended up with the appalling deal negotiated by the arch-remainer Theresa May. Don’t try and pin this deal on Brexit voters, you need to look much closer to home.
February 11, 2022
Well said. Personally, I blame the undemocratic EU worshippers in Parliament for giving the EU the ability to dictate terms, due to their ‘surrender bill’. I am no fan of Boris, but he was given a lousy hand by our own politicians.
February 11, 2022
Sovereignty in this country rests with its Parliament.
So if you are against Parliament, then you are against the UK’s sovereignty.
Don’t make much sense, do you?
February 11, 2022
Parliament went rogue, and tried to overturn democracy and the biggest vote in the history of the UK. Any democrat would be against that particular Parliament. You are trying to blame the electorate for the politicians treachery. The majority of those undemocratic politicians obtained their seats through deceit. That should not be defended, even by remainers. otherwise you give all politicians a free hand to lie and deceive.
February 11, 2022
Parliament can never be rogue.
It is supreme.
You might not like it – I don’t like this one – but I accept its legitimacy.
Because I am not a traitor to the constitution of this country.
February 11, 2022
It is predictable but really rather sad and pathetic that Brexitists try to blame everybody else for Brexit. The Protocol was negotiated ENTIRELY by Frost and Johnson. This is your mess and I am enjoying immensely watching you whine about it.
February 11, 2022
Andy
The public were not given a vote on the deal proposed as you well know.
February 11, 2022
It is about the interpretation of the Protocol in practical terms young Andy.
February 11, 2022
It isnât about interpretation. It is about acceptance. Whether you now like it or not the reality is that you Brexitists negotiated a deal which put a border down the Irish Sea. A border which requires checks on goods being sent internally. You made your deal legally binding.
I accepted that your Brexit would be crap before you voted for it. You just still havenât come to terms with how crap it is yet. But the best bit is that it is entirely the fault of people like you. Enjoy.
February 11, 2022
You are wrong young andy.
The wording of the protocol is liable to interpretation.
There is no need to stop and inspect supermarket lorries deliveries to their NI branches.
That was not envisaged.
Article 16 does give the UK an option to withdraw if it creates difficulties or hardships to trade.
February 11, 2022
Here is Boris Johnson, who in his earlier journalistic incarnation repeatedly told newspaper readers about the insane and pettifogging nature of the EU, now loudly and bombastically expressing surprise that the EU is implementing the Irish protocol that he negotiated in an insane and pettifogging way:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRkmlHy7INo&t=41s
What else did he expect? That they would implement it in a common sense way?
February 11, 2022
Johnson invented the euromyth.
Utter twaddle, peddled by the gutter press to the gullible and embittered.
February 12, 2022
hilarious twaddle.
February 11, 2022
Let’s be honest, all Brexiters were stupid and all Remainders truthful and honourable.
Now we’ve cleared that up, just go away.
February 11, 2022
đ
February 11, 2022
Remainders? — sounds like something rotted away until just a smelly, oozing gunge is left.
Hmmm… could be after all.
February 11, 2022
Also đ
February 13, 2022
No longer anonymous
Interesting perspective but not particularly intelligent argument nor conclusion as the argument does not hang together
Hi
February 11, 2022
Quite agree Sir John. However I think it likely that Easter Ukrain will never be fully governable and will become thag buffer zone that Russia desires between it and the EU and NATO.
But why should the UK, now indelendendent, remain a member of NATO when so many EU countries refuse to contribute their share NATO?
And what about the UK defence force, now to be feminised! Putin must be scared witless.
February 11, 2022
Already done. Except for Para and Commandos and SF… doubtless the arduous and often brutal selections will be deemed sexist soon enough.
That silly SAS Who Dares Wins programme on TV will be held up as proof that women can do it (2 weeks contest vs 9 months selection in the real thing) I like Ant Middleton but can he not see what he’s done ?
February 11, 2022
Ant Middleton left that TV show saying it had become to woke
February 11, 2022
The tensions will continue. From the Russian side they help provoke division in the West so they can supply gas to Europe. From the US side it provides reasons to oppose Nordstream 2 so the US can sell gas to Europe. This time it is Germany that is caught in the squeeze. The best thing the UK can do is develop its own gas resources if, and it is a big if, it the government can extract its head from the sands of its obsession with net zero.
February 11, 2022
+1
February 11, 2022
And just when we should be trying for 100%energy dependency, the oil and gas regulator orders Cuadrilla to concrete over their Wells.
February 11, 2022
The Russia-Germany relationship extends way,way beyond just energy.Germany is caught in a bind because it’s industry and commerce is looking east to huge potential of Russia and China and wants to be a full player in the Eurasian integration process whilst it’s political structure was designed by the US after WWII and the country remains under US occupation.
Something’s gotta give!Time to throw off the yoke!
February 12, 2022
The EEC / EU was the bind sought by France as a means to control their powerful neighbour. Once the EEC / EU institutions were dominated by France, but not anymore.
February 11, 2022
If there is one thing that the Ukraine crisis has cleary shown, it is the military weakness of the British armed forces following 12 years of Conservative defence cuts.
Sir John has allowed me to repeatedly blog about the malign and savage defence cuts implemented by Cameron, May and Johnson. Those with an interest in the defence of the realm should read Michael Ashcroft’s excellent book “White Flag” for a way forward
February 11, 2022
And where are the eye watering amounts of money going to come from to be ahead of a global arms race. Please get real. You should be attacking the EU members especially Germany, in Russiaâs pocket through energy needs, for not spending as much as we do to support NATO.
February 11, 2022
+1 but who is NATO standing against ?
February 11, 2022
I’m surprised that Russia hasn’t applied to join….that would make things interesting
February 12, 2022
Hardly likely when they wish to absorb many of those member countries !!!
February 11, 2022
It seems very unlikely that Putin will be foolish enough to invade Ukraine. The posturing of Macron however is very concerning and a signal of Western weakness. Likewise it has been entirely predictable that Nordstream2 would make Germany and Europe more generally hostage to Russian belligerence.
So indeed letâs turn to the Northern Ireland protocol. If it cannot be Implemented in the way agreed – which includes respecting the UKâs internal market and not diverting trade or causing societal disruption then it must be set aside. It seems clear also that the EUâs approach is a breach of article 1 of the Belfast agreement. The EU is âbreaking international lawâ.
February 13, 2022
Read what it actually says.
Stop making up stuff.
February 11, 2022
Dear Sir John this is a very biased and typical western view of Russia which does start with the West knowns best and every one else is completely at fault/wrong. Russia will see from experience the West’s invasions of the Middle East based on lies. No mention is made that Crimea was part of Russia until given to the Ukraine by the USSR. The West turns a blind eye as to why there is a civil war in Ukraine and is not interested in sorting out this Northern Ireland type problem ( the troubles not Brexit). The West/EU encouraged the original unrest. The Kiev Government does not suppress Nazi movements and arm groups who make our right wing groups look like liberals. Russia lost 16 million to the Nazi invasion/Second world war.
NATO was to defend against the Soviet Union not Russia. NATO is really out of a job.
Sir John how can you say Russia pretends to see a threat from the West. “yet there is no evidence that NATO has ever wanted to expand its territory by military means.” A very Politically phrased statement in my opinion. The truth is NATO has expanded it’s territory as seen by Russia -this is a fact.
The West does not allow that Russia might not want the Ukraine army invading the parts of the country to take the Regions back by force with a great loss of Life on both sides.
The West is not interested in solving the internal Ukraine issue peacefully, just wanting to justify the existence of NATO and stopping the supply of Russian Gas as opposed to American Gas to Germany and the EU.
February 11, 2022
+1.
February 11, 2022
Also Lenin transferred the Donbass to the newly created Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic after the civil war(the Russian Empire did not have internal borders except for the Grand Duchy of Finland).And parts of northern Ukraine are ethnically Hungarian and Romanian (Hitler’s defeated allies in WWII were forced to cede territory).Mr Orban would like his bit back.
The US neocons used to openly display maps of how Russia would be divided up once they got there hands on it-they may still do.
February 13, 2022
Thanks for an interesting and perfectly respectable analysis.
February 11, 2022
Wonderful concluding paragraph! Never mind war in Europe, let’s focus on getting sausages into Northern Ireland. How low has the Conservative Party of Macmillan and Thatcher been brought by its obsessive Brexit ideologues
February 11, 2022
Northern Ireland has its own large poultry and pig farms, they can produce their own sausages. In Jun 2021 we were told they had too much poo from these farms – After a decade of growth, the country has a poultry population of 25 million and pig production has risen to almost 1.5 million, with most of the meat exported to Great Britain. (which isn’t affected).
If items are grown or made in the UK I can’t understand why the business department can’t help our producers to get the paperwork they require then they could also open up exports to Southern Ireland and the EU for their products increasing exports. Everyone is correct they shouldn’t have to BUT Boris did sign that agreement, he was warned by JR and there were many people on this blog explaining the problem with the Protocol. So find the solution, that works to the UKs advantage.
February 13, 2022
It appears that the Tories and their media would rather see war in Ukraine, with untold dead and suffering, than to see Macron or anyone else from a European Union country secure peace and stability in the Continent.
They are quite unspeakable.
February 18, 2022
Then don’t speak.
February 11, 2022
Putin sabre rattling with little or no cost to Russia. He gets the world to sit up and be terrified of war.
Should he foolishly cross the border he will have world condemnation and much worse, aircraft not fighting but taking body bags home.
February 11, 2022
Liz Truss, out of her depth with the Russian foreign minister, a mouse played with by a very large cat who showed what he thought by leaving her high and dry. Not mention thinking looking like Margaret Thatcher will imbue her with the same status. Frankly pathetic.
And now she will take her huff and puff approach to the NI protocol supported by another dissemble from Boris assuring the House he would trigger article 15 when as we know from Lord Frost he has zero intention of doing so and the EU negotiators know that as well, hence their intransigence.
I agree with John Major for different reasons. What we saw in Moscow and the hollow threats with regard to NI are making us a laughing stock. Boris personally has been doing that for years.
February 11, 2022
+1.
February 11, 2022
I thought Crimea had a referendum. I didn’t realise Russia just marched in.
Russia has been invading Ukraine for such a long time now. I’ve been reading of the imminent invasion for a good few years.
Maybe they will maybe they won’t.
Whatever Putin is or isn’t, I think it a bit rich of the British government to point fingers when they’ve had those same fingers in many pies relating to interfering in other countries. All disguised of course as being for peace, liberal democracy, removal of tyrannical leaders and of course weapons of mass destruction.
The mess left behind, the knock on consequences to us in so many ways just shrugged off by those same people who make the decisions but dodge the consequences.
The human cost has been horrific.
It just leaves me open mouthed that such people can take the moral high ground, but then some people always have the best view in the room.
If ever there was contemplation in getting involved militarily against Russia I would suggest a very big reality check for the Westminster crew, not least because the old ties that bind have been obliterated. Our young men have been emasculated and the armed forces grow more ‘woke’ by the day.
Reply Russia held a referendum after the take over without western agreement or observer status. It is quite possible now a properly supervised referendum would secure a majority for Russian rule but one has not been agreed.
February 11, 2022
Reply to reply
Looks like they took a leaf out of Edward Heath’s book, because that is exactly what happened to us with regards to the EEC / EU. So Michelle’s point still stands.
February 11, 2022
+1
February 11, 2022
And in other news, no doubt the Cressida Dick story will rumble on. Only 12 months ago Boris said he had total confidence in her and extended her contract.
I cannot believe that the cultural/diversity etc issues that have caused her downfall have sprung up in this last year so what does that say about his judgment or lack of it or was her reappointment a diversity issue in itself over competence?
February 11, 2022
Who’d want to be a police officer in London these days ? Crap pay, no respect, treated like dirt… no wonder the people that haven’t already walked from it can be dodgy and not give a toss. They don’t (and shouldn’t) see it as a career anymore.
It’s a rubbish job.
They had the same problem with corruption and lack of care for the job in the ’70s – then they put the pay up.
February 11, 2022
We are all getting old and I am no exception but I seem to remember that the police were always dressed smartly and did not look like some paramilitary outfit dressed by Primark. Similar boutiques are also available.
February 11, 2022
NLA,
In the 1970s Robert Mark came into the Metropolitan Police and cleared out most of the corruption. Senior officers on the vice squad were jailed (although (one Ed)subsequently had his conviction quashed on a technicality and many were just forced to retire). Same happened in the squad that tackled armed robbery, where policeman had actually been arranging thefts with the villains.
Pay rates are not the answer to poor policing. You need traditional policemen who started at the bottom and worked their way up. High flyers who tick various boxes are not required.
February 11, 2022
There’s a lot of publicity and criticism of some police behaviour, ( before I’m censored I’m not talking about the criminals who deserve to have the key thrown away ) and this will help an even more woke and probably woman, replacement.
Chances are we won’t get anyone whose principle aim is to catch all types of criminals whoever they are and whatever they look like.
February 11, 2022
Off topic by 1 day
Last night I read that the ”OIL & GAS AUTHORITY” has instructed the BEIS to cap the shale gas test wells in the Northwest.
Where on earth did this bunch of NEDs come from and are telling our government what to do? Will someone please tell me?
February 11, 2022
Cap is a euphemism. It means filling up with concrete. All that work wasted.
February 11, 2022
Just a very silly and unscientific ( no doubt) thoughtâŠ
What if gas or methane gas leaks out of the shale and builds up under all that concrete and then pops its cork?đ„
The Left hates fracking because of shale being a fossil fuel and because of the âwarmingâ emissions that come from the wells.
February 11, 2022
Also off topic, but whoever thought that forcing a ÂŁ200 loan upon people was a good idea? Very few people like it, very few people want it. Will the government listen? I doubt it. Do they (especially Boris) actually believe this is a good idea?
February 11, 2022
GB -It is all part of the globalist plan. We are irrelevant.
February 11, 2022
The FS Liz Truss will get no-where on NI because she will get no support from ‘Boris’ who hasn’t the courage to stand up to the EU.
He will continue with his betrayal of the UK’s sovereignty.
February 11, 2022
+1 Boris appeases the EU at every opportunity. Is Boris scared of the EU, a closet Remainer, or just lazy and wants the ‘quiet life’ regardless of the damage to the UK?
February 11, 2022
I reckon that he gets beaten up by his siblings and his father every time they set eyes on him!
February 11, 2022
Shirley M. Or under pressure from his remoaning family?
February 11, 2022
Shirley M – he is following the Globalist UK Establishment dictat.
February 11, 2022
You Leave obsessives, over your oh-so-sacred “sovereignty”, are like the boundary-fixated neighbour, who spends his entire life savings and has to remortgage on proving that his neighbour’s privet hedge is a few mm onto his property – only to be compulsorily purchased of the whole lot to build a railway.
February 11, 2022
Eh? If you want a fair comparison instead a ridiculous one, then sovereignty is more akin to NOT allowing your neighbour to dictate the rules of your trade, and what you are allowed, or not allowed, to do with your own house and garden and who you must give access to.
If you are happy to give your neighbour that power, then go ahead. Nobody is stopping you.
February 11, 2022
Ridiculous nonsense NHL
February 11, 2022
I’d fight for sovereignty all day long
February 13, 2022
Glenn Cullen
Look it up first then look at 13000 deals signed by the UK government and then come back and discuss in an informed manner
February 11, 2022
A poisoned chalice ! I do keep saying đ
February 11, 2022
The Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz, who the media here seem to have never heard of and don’t report on, seems to be inclined to let Russia do whatever they want, so why should we intervene ?
Amusing that all the Remoaners who claimed the evil Russia had interfered in the Brexit vote are now big fans of Russia since one of their Russian political thugs insulted Liz Truss.
February 11, 2022
Could you cite an actual instance of a Remain proponent making such an observation, please?
February 11, 2022
Yes armed forces due to be cut again as I understand it.
Soon there will not be enough service men and women to help out even the NHS, let alone defend the Country.
February 11, 2022
Its worst than that, we have new armoured vehicles that donât work, ships that canât put to sea; but we do have a upto 21 F35B fighter jets and at least one vanguard-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarinesâŠ.nether tactically mission ready against Russian if they invade Ukraine
February 11, 2022
Glen
Yes, makes you wonder how politicians think and act doesn’t it.
I wonder who advises them ?
February 11, 2022
You’ll have to excuse me if I don’t swallow the official UK line on global politics, especially where Russia is concerned. Sometimes I’d go so far as to say that many of these conflicts, differences between heads of state, are stage managed to otherwise distract us.
Why do I suspect Psy-ops are being used to muddy the water, after all since the Nudge units have been in operation we have been told what to think. Is this alleged Russian conflict yet another example of what they can do for the government to keep us scared and obedient?
The current situation was triggered a few years ago by the EU trying to persuade an ex-USSR satellite to join with the EU – Russia has always been adamant they do not want NATO on its doorstep. Why can’t this be respected.
Now we have seen Western heads of state, especially Biden, banging the war drums, while Russia takes up defensive positions. If there is any sort of war it will be because of failed politics, failed diplomacy, but mostly a failure of understanding of reality by the West.
February 11, 2022
+1
February 11, 2022
BH – 100%+. I trust Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump way above any other leaders.
The Ukraine has always been a corrupt state and has much to hide and the west are scared of it being uncovered.
February 12, 2022
Absolutely right.Ukraine is a conduit for Anglo-American corruption,particularly regarding the Military Industrial Complex(and particularly since they have lost the Afghan honey pot.See Julian Assange/Wikileaks).
February 13, 2022
Bryan Harris
Read Russian history and you will find out it has nothing to do with the EU
February 11, 2022
Good comment from Guido. Tories putting up taxes is an open goal for labour and we read their attack line this morning.
Your differentiator is always Labour is the party of high taxes. Now no more. A silly political mistake that you are transparently trying to spin as essential to help NHS waiting lists that will actually increase.
Even more ridiculous given the large amounts, more than covering the Nat Ins rise, that you are allowing to be lost through fraud and waste.
Seems to me I can vote Labour and see no discernible difference. Actually there is. No âbuffoonâ leading, boring maybe but not in thrall to the unelected âwokeâ coterie around him. Indeed even their union ties, another one of your attack lines, are weakening.
February 11, 2022
Putin has a point. The threat from NATO doesn’t have to be military – indeed, that it still exists after the fall of the Berlin Wall is aggressive.
February 11, 2022
+1
February 13, 2022
Absolutely rubbish
February 11, 2022
The aberration was the Blair/Clinton abuse of NATO in the Kosovan war. This has given the Russians endless mileage in denying NATO is defensive.
February 11, 2022
+1
And Afghanistan.
February 11, 2022
We are at stage one of the Russian Federations plan â to disrupt, disperse and dismantle NATO as an organisationâŠ.stage two, an invented engagement followed by a limited paramilitary police incursionâŠ
Read Tom Clancy âRed Storm Risingâ
February 11, 2022
Tom Clancy as a foreign policy expert, thatâs todayâs best one.
Why bother with RUSI or other foreign policy think tanks when one has Tomâs books to explain all the intricacies of the world?
February 11, 2022
I donât believe that Tom Clancy is a foreign policy expertâŠ.heâs a novelist
Stop looking for âreds under the bedsâ where they donât exist
…..and âRed Storm Risingâ is a good read
February 11, 2022
How on earth did Liz Truss become UK Foreign Secretary?
Sergei Lavrov asked Liz Truss if she recognised Russian sovereignty over Rostov and Voronezh – Truss replied that Britain would never recognise them as Russian. Truss had to be told by our ambassador that both were part of Russia.
February 11, 2022
Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear…
February 11, 2022
The Conservative I most trust in life is my Dad’s cousin. He made a fortune in The City (but generous with it). Hunts. Shoots. Church of England (and cleans the graves of all his deceased family and friends). Good fun. A true patriot. But he said the real problem in the UK today isn’t politics but a dramatic decline in Western Culture / Civilisation (not just in UK but Europe / USA / Australia etc). Until Conservative politicians begin to address this and work closer with Conservative-minded people in Education, Arts, Media and church, then politics is just going to become more and more irrelevant.
February 11, 2022
Can’t see many Leave voters boning up on the UK’s luminaries in literature, music, painting, science and philosophy somehow, let alone those of the rest of the West.
Can you?
February 12, 2022
But the Remoaners will for mainland Europe luminaries from Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden. ?
February 12, 2022
What has this got to do with our great British luminaries such as Shakespeare, Handel, Sir Christopher Wren etc .. Are you suggesting that it’s anti-patriotic or to be pro EU or EU-like or something not to love one’s own culture? If not, please be clear.
February 12, 2022
Martin always tries to suggest Leavers were of lower intelligence and learning, not familiar with UK luminaries. I wish to point out that Remoaners are just as likely to not be aware of luminaries from EU countries. Choosing to stay or escape has nothing to do with familiarity with luminaries.
February 12, 2022
Well they should because our great nation would be that much poorer without the likes of: Shakespeare, Sir Christopher Wren, Handel, the architects of all the great medieval Cathedrals, churches and secular buildings, the great architects and educationalists of Oxford and Cambridge and all the people they educated in science, the arts, politics, business, and so on.
Conservatism is, or should be, as much about Arts and Culture and Education and Strong Family Life etc as it should be about Politics, the Economy and Patriotism. How many feel that much more patriotic when they see the spire of Salisbury Cathedral in the distance or the gables of Oxford, and the dome of St Paul’s Cathedral which withstood the bombing of the Nazis. Etc ..
Lastly, creativity is key to entrepreneurship and business and the economy as well as politics. Steve Jobs says that a course he did in some particular discipline of Design (I forget which) was key to him setting up the ethos of Apple that has now made it the biggest company in the world, providing wonderful, high productive, and different skilled jobs and feeding so many other areas of employment and the economy etc ..
February 12, 2022
Don’t forget how the Soviets / Marxists hated Traditional Arts / Culture / Beauty. Look at how dull / boring / ugly all the modern Soviet architecture is. And look at how post-modernism has ruined Traditional Culture as well.
So if you want to be the opposite of a Soviet / Marist, support the Traditional Architecture of The West, that created such great beauty, in particular during The Renaissance, but at other times too, in Music / Art / Architecture / Sculpture / Literature and so on – including the great Arts / Culture of our great country. And all key ingredients too to Patriotism and a Strong Economy.
February 12, 2022
The early Soviets created new arts and new revolutionary artforms-in construction,the Moscow Underground,Stalin’s “Seven sisters” are magnificent edifices.Shostokovich,Prokofiev,Khachaturian,etc in music.Solzhenitsyn,Akhmatova,Pasternak,etc in literature.There is some terrific Soviet art too-some which was initially derided in the west,like the Socialist realist stuff,has been re-evaluated in recent years and is now much sought after.
It was in the later Khrushchev/Brezhnev period that the creativity dried up.
February 13, 2022
Hi,
1) Shostokovich had his religious moments and moments of dissent from Communism (certainly much of his loyalty seemed to have been pretence). Although not black and white.
2) Solzhenitsyn was a devout Christian and clearly anti Communist
3) Pasternak of Dr Zhivago was clearly anti Communist although not as black and white as Solzhenitsyn and sympathetic towards Christianity
4) The brilliant Dostoevsky, a devout Christian, strongly attacked the early forms of Communism or thoughts that led to Communism
5) Also, how much greater would the arts have been if the Soviet Union had been a traditional Christian, not Communist country – like back in the 19th century when it produced so many great writers, poets, composers and more.
February 13, 2022
Tchaikovsky with all his beautiful melodies could only have come from the charm and beauty of a traditionally-Christian country like Russia in the 19th century.
I’m not an expert on Tchaikovsky (I know hardly anything about him) but I bet his music didn’t sit well with many Communist intellectuals who, I imagine, would have seen his music as decadent / self-indulgent type thing.
And the great composer wrote this about Communism (so it appears from the website I found this quote): ‘And how dull and unbearably colourless life will surely be’ (quite right, and the arts of every era, in some important way, reflects something of the spirit of the age).
February 12, 2022
+1
February 11, 2022
I support Brexit. But what’s the point of Brexit (or the EU) if the younger generation are far, far more into their iPhones, TikTok, binge-drinking, one-night stands, making money as easily and quickly as possible, wanting to be famous, and all the rest (all part of decline of Western Culture / Civilisation – and our politicians have to look beyond just politics to create a healthy, strong, rich Western Culture / Civilisation in our great nation. They also have to think more philosophically type thing, like Edmund Burke, connecting politics more to Education / Media / Arts / church etc. Where Conservatism is far more than just politics and money but where politics and money is part of a larger Conservative ‘movement’ (or whatever you want to call it) involving Education / Media / Arts / church etc .. to create positive cultural values that influence (without being pushy) the young in a positive way. Type thing.
February 11, 2022
We are not party to the Minsk Protocol so this is none of our business; the Minsk Protocol was necessary to end a war provoked by the US State department which cannot stop meddling in other countries affairs or engage in unprovoked warmongering.
The Tory Party needs to stop dragging this country into conflicts acting as the US poodle which do not affect our vital national interest; we have no vital interest in Ukraine, so bring the troops home now and focus on resolving domestic issues which do affect our vital interests.
February 11, 2022
In enforcement situations, treating even a rogue as a gentleman is always best. A little humility and willingness to listen to the other side never goes amiss, provided they know that you have both the moral and strategic high ground. This is not comparable to 1930’s Europe, and the consequences of political ineptitude for the ordinary people on the ground are unthinkable. Wisdom is needed, not hubris.
February 11, 2022
The war of words will go on for sometime, all about oil, gas and mentals followed by climate change, inflation and GDP and the shutting down of small businesses and poluting companies. This is how the elite control your world.
February 11, 2022
Canada is now governed by an authoritarian and barbaric class even more dangerous than Putin. This Neo-Marxist woke bigotry now being adopted by many western leaders is out of control with trust between these WEF-Davos autocrats and the people they rule over now shattered into pieces
Western democracy and freedom is teetering on a precipice and the Tory party working with Labour is supportive of these appalling developments
Shameful rejection of Thatcher’s values
February 11, 2022
O/T, if anyone wants to see what was thought was necessary to be done, search for the 1032 pages of the brexitcentral.com Business for Britainâs Spring 2016 report âChange, or Goâ, then look at the 16/06/2021 140 pp Independent Report of the âTaskforce on Innovation, Growth and Regulatory Reformâ on gov.uk, then the January 2022 105 pp of âThe Benefits of Brexit: How the Government is taking advantage of leaving the EUâ on assets.publishing.service.gov.uk.
Next stage will be to see what JRM does with the recommandations of the Border & Protocol Delivery Group and of the Brexit Opportunities Group of which he is now the overseeing Minister.
February 11, 2022
Total agreement SJR.
February 11, 2022
“I am not surprised the Foreign Secretary got nowhere with the Russian Foreign Minister.” – quite, but how come Mr. Lavrov was not as awed as many of us were shocked by the loose approximation to a Thatcheresque display of dress sense exhibited by L. Truss? If a vague lookalike to a true great does not qualify Liz to replace the ailing Boris, what else could?
February 11, 2022
An interesting, little known fact is that the Soviet Union once (in 1954) tried to join NATO. Why not make an offer of membership now? If NATO is purely defensive in posture, why not?
February 12, 2022
Good question indeed.
February 18, 2022
but AFTER Ukraine joins?
February 12, 2022
We have been marginalised by the US France and Germany in trying to find a solution to the Russian potential aggression in the Ukraine
reply France anD Germany led the Minsk initiatives when we were in the EU. I am happy for them to do it as they are much closer to the problem.
February 13, 2022
Sir JR
This is much more than just the Minsk protocol, this is a European issue of independent nations and has very little to do with geographical nearness which alone is rubbish
Reply You usually say now the U.K. has left the EU we should not comment on matters on the continent, so why the wish to excuse France and Germany on this issue?
February 14, 2022
Sir JR
You must be mixing my comments on the EU with someone else
February 12, 2022
It strikes me that a lot of these post-Soviet issues stem from a misplaced commitment to the ‘territorial integrity’ of countries whose present borders were inherited from the USSR at its dissolution, previous to which their precise delineation, or the status of a particular territory within the USSR, really didn’t matter very much. Only the fifteen full ‘Union Republics’ emerged as independent countries; territories within them that had the lesser status of ‘Autonomous Republic’ or ‘Autonomous Region’ did not, however much they may have aspired to independence in their own right.
This has led to the situation we have today with the so-called ‘frozen conflicts’ where we have a clutch of breakaway territories that have been functioning for about thirty years as de-facto independent countries with little or no diplomatic recognition. Yet we still engage in the pretence that these territories must always have to remain part of the country they unwillingly found themselves in when the USSR collapsed.
Crimea itself does not appear to have objected very strenuously to the annexation by Russia – the opposite, in fact. Transnistria does not want to be part of Moldova. Abkhazia does not want to be part of Georgia. The mainly Christian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh very much does not want to be part of mainly Muslim Azerbaijan. And in what universe does it make any kind of sense for North Ossetia to be in Russia while South Ossetia is in Georgia but doesn’t want to be?
Not, by the way, that Russia can claim any kind of moral high ground here, with regard to the present Ukrainian secessionist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, because we all remember the brutal way it reacted when Chechnya tried to assert its independence from Russia itself.