The Chancellor’s latest Mais lecture told us he believes in a free enterprise economy and lower taxes. I have no problems with that. It began with a quote from Adam Smith and praise for a competitive free enterprise approach to delivering goods and services. The lecture then modifies this vision as it needed to do by reminding us that we encourage substantial government intervention in such an economy. He did not raise the issue of how far government intervention can go before you cease to have his ideal private enterprise model. Today by common wish we have the state as a near monopoly buyer of healthcare and education. The railways have effectively been renationalised. Government also presides over a major policy of transfers of cash to those on low or no incomes .
The lecture states an aim of growing faster. This is to be achieved by concentrating on people, capital and ideas or innovation. The lecture talks of the need to raise the productivity performance of the economy. It is unexceptional that we could achieve more progress with more and better education and technical training. He wants a higher rate of private sector investment, given the big boost to public capital investment that has been agreed. He wants to see more innovations and ideas, which will require a private sector boost to investment in research and development. The lecture lacks detail on how any of this might come to pass.
He asserts that a larger state will not deliver faster growth or higher prosperity. There is some truth in that. He then argues he must not cut tax rates before he has got the deficit down, as he does not believe there will be more revenues from lower rates. This flies in the face of abundant evidence. The Thatcher/Lawson Income tax cuts brought in a lot more revenue from higher earners. The Republic of Ireland low corporation tax brought in a surge of new investment and extra corporation tax. The smaller Osborne corporation tax cuts brought in extra revenue.
His policy of tax rises and frozen tax thresholds in April runs the risk of less revenue than if he set lower rates. It will bring slower growth, reducing the output and incomes to tax. The lecture disappointed in saying nothing about the energy crisis and little about the cost of living crisis which is related. If he wants to grow with faster productivity he needs to address the chronic shortage of affordable energy for industry in the UK and needs to restrain the impulse of other Ministers to favour imports over home production in a wide range of areas.
March 2, 2022
Good morning.
The highest tax take in 75 years. And business destroying IR35. Perhaps like you, Sir John I cannot see it. But, if you tell a fib often enough . . .
He acts in a way his boss wishes him to. Get as much money for him to splash out and buy votes.
O for one am not fooled by this charlatan of a faux Conservative.
March 2, 2022
The endless attack on landlords too, now (thanks Osborne, Hammond, Javid, Sunak) taxing profits they have not even made, the extra 3% stamp duty, landlord licensing in some areas expanding its scope, OTT electrical and gas safety certificates, soon very expensive prohibitive energy certificates, cannot now charge for new leases, credit checks, or inventory inspections, enforced deposit protection schemes⊠all this is decreasing supply, wasting peopleâs time and money and pushing up rents too.
March 2, 2022
Compliance with red tape, health and safety, employment laws, letting laws, OTT bank lending rules, reporting rules and the vast tax complexity is now so time wasting it is as bad as the very high and increasing tax levels. It depresses the productivity of the productive by wasting much of their time and creates endless (essentially non productive or parasitic jobs) in both the state sector and the private sector. It is far worse for smaller companies. We cannot all work in accounting, law, tax planning, the state sector, PAYE admin, VAT admin, NI admin, Pension Admin, Student Loan Admin, health and safety, compliance, HR, HMRC, bank regulation, Companies House Admin⊠some people have to have time to do productive jobs in producing and providing food, distribution, building houses, producing energy, cars, medical care, dental care, repairsâŠ
March 2, 2022
Hear, hear!
March 3, 2022
Socialist budget 11 days before covid lock down.
My wife tried to get a doctor appointment yesterday, she was given one a month away! What are the billions of our taxes wasted on the NHS exactly? Dentist appointments can only be secure early by private means! Get the Tories out they cannot manage a whelk stall. Johnson would probably eat all his stock!
March 3, 2022
Indeed.
British governments do not understand incentives or motivation. Probably as a result of too long in the EU they think only of rules, regulation and punishment. Not to mention comfort, security, anonymity and zero accountability for slow moving bureaucrats. They don’t work for us, we work for them.
March 3, 2022
But, but, but what about the probable Labour / SNP alliance you keep on about if people do not continue to vote Conservative ? Surely they would be worse ? As you keep telling us !
/sarc
March 3, 2022
Lothian question never answered after 12 years! Gove u dear the cover of covid took away the crumb given. This demonstrates quite clearly socialist Tories want SNP voting on English matters.
Socialist Tories implement Labour policies, a question of fact. Climate Change being their central economical destroying policy- getting rid of manufacturing, jobs, national security in energy, food, steel etc.
March 2, 2022
+1
March 2, 2022
JRs party is not low tax. 79 historic high tax record demonstrates without any doubt they are nothing of the sort. Higher taxation than Labour after 12 years in office graphically illustrates the repeated lie by the Tories socialists. The Tories, as a matter of record, are high tax, big state, big intervention and dreadful public services.
200,000 now being allowed to come here from Ukraine, on top of the millions from Hong Kong, Afghanistan and boat people. The Tories will cut immigration line is also a lie.
March 2, 2022
@ Mark B “…not fooled by this charlatan of a faux Conservative” – indeed, surely none of us are and moreover we have been given a vision of what easily could be instead by Sir John that is very much more appealing and makes very much more sense. Mr. Sunak is wholly surplus to requirements.
March 2, 2022
It is obvious that the excuses he offers for not reducing the growing tax burden are fake. The intent is to try to bribe the electorate with tax cuts ahead of the next election. It has been done before. He and Johnson (if he is still around) will try it again to get re-elected. Bribing voters takes priority over the health of the economy.
March 2, 2022
Sunak even seems to want to claim he is Thatcherite! Thatcher took public spending down to under 39% of GDP (still far to high of course) but under Sunak we are now hitting 50% and still have very poor & declining public services despite this vast sum. Much state sector spending even does positive harm HS2, net zero and most red tape as examples . Particularly poor and misdirected are the police & criminal justice, social services, roads & pot hole mending, the NHS healthcare + dental, education, energy infrastructure, defence procurement/woke lunacy, long term care, the expensive and deluded devolved governments, local authorities & border force – not controlling our borders.
March 2, 2022
But is his boss the PM? He behaves as if his boss is the left wing, remainiac Treasury.
March 3, 2022
Johnson sacked Javid and installed a puppet. Sunak is Johnson’s man and will give him all the cash, at our expense, he needs. No questions asked đ
March 2, 2022
I am not fooled either, and have a long list of reasons not to vote for the so called Conservative party, and Johnson in particular.
From being a Conservative voter, I am now one who will vote for anything that is not Con/Lib/Lab.
March 2, 2022
Mr Sunsk should stop professing to be at heart a low tax Chancellor. He should take immediate action to become one. He, his boss and the rest of the Cabinet should also drop the virtue signalling climate nonsense forthwith, and institute immediate action to facilitate drilling and fracking.
March 2, 2022
I’d love to hear what Adam Smith would have said about brexit and the ERG.
March 3, 2022
I don’t t think Adam would have approved of a protectionist trading bloc with tariffs on poorer countries trying to import their goods.
Making rules regulations directives and laws with a tenuous link to real democracy from the votes of the citizens.
A bosses club the left called it back in the 1970s
For once they were right.
March 4, 2022
OK, P2, thatâs what Adam might have said about the EU. Now what about answering NLHâs question, what might Adam have said about Brexit and the ERG?
March 4, 2022
By leaving the dreadful EU, as I have stated, I feel Adam would have therefore supported Brexit and the efforts of the ERG to achieve that goal.
Is it beyond your high intelligence to make that small jump hef?
March 5, 2022
Wonderful how you can mediate a dead 18th c. philosopher, P2. Another string to your bow, really brilliant.
March 2, 2022
A bit like yesterdayâs commitment to oil and gas. Belief in something doesnât mean actually doing it.
How can free enterprise exist in a highly restrictive, if-it-moves-tax-it country like the U.K.?
March 2, 2022
They even tax you when you die!
March 4, 2022
JB, Some kind of IHT has been applied in the British Isles since 1694 (âHistory of inheritance taxes in the United Kingdomâ). Estate duties were introduced in 1894.
Much before that, there was even another type of death tax talked about in Beowulf (10th or 11th c.) The Lord was made to inherit the armour of his knights who had died in battles.
So nothing really new under the sun.
March 2, 2022
As Guido points out today the govt has embarked on the most expensive policy in history without any idea how much it will cost, how much taxation will be required and what it will achieve. This is according to the Public Accounts Committee!!
Those low tax Tories eh, economically chaotic misfits under Johnson. Sounds a bit like the merits of HS2! Or the extra billions of taxes for NHS, no idea how the money will be spent or what it will achieve!!
A vote for Tory in May is a vote for historic high taxes and impoverishment.
Has Useless Ustice triggered mass UK agriculture growth to get away from EU? No.
Has Useless Patel allowed mass immigration and illegal immigration to flourish? Yes.
Truss calls the nation to arms in the Ukraine!! Has the remainer issued article16 of N.Ireland protocol or allowed the annexation of N.Ireland and forced UK to remain in EU orbit for regulation. She opted for UK vassalage waving goodbye to any benefit of leaving the EU.
Johnson wrecked the economy without good reason or purpose in record time of being in office.
March 3, 2022
+1
March 3, 2022
+1
March 2, 2022
Fully agree – its difficult to think of something which isn’t taxed
March 2, 2022
+1
March 3, 2022
Do you know what, glen I think you might be right !
Seriously !
March 2, 2022
It was a very confused lecture indeed schizophrenic really. Sunak, like most politicians, can only be judged by his very socialist, tax and regulated to death actions and his clear support for the mad expensive, unreliable energy agenda.
You cannot judge most politicians by what they say as it is so often totally untrue and the complete opposite of what they actually do. Cameron claimed to be a low tax at heart, Conservative, Eurosceptic and gave a cast iron guarantee on a Lisbon treaty referendum! Then they lied that once passed a treaty was some how not a treaty. They he told us he would stay on after the EU referendum and deliver the section 50 letter the next day!
Boris only the other day was still idiotically saying we need yet more renewables to get away from Putins coal and gas when we need to get fracking and should have done this years ago.
Sunak keeps going on about productivity increases but his very big, largely incompetent and unproductive government and high & increasing taxes are the main causes of poor productivity and lack of investment.
The solutions are very simple Sunak, cut government in half (vast waste everywhere you care to look), cut taxes hugely, cut regulation hugely, get real and fair competition in education and healthcare, go for cheap, reliable on demand energy. Coal, gas, oil and better nuclear with some sensible r&d and abandon the net zero religion now. Only two years or so until the next election and no one in England wants a Labour/SNP majority do they?
March 2, 2022
AND Cameron pledged to cut immigration to the âtens of thousandsââŠ
In fairness though, we must have misunderstoodâŠhe meant per week!
March 3, 2022
LL, Labour have a better economic record than Socialist Tory, question of fact. Net stupid is estimated to be the most costly policy in history without any idea how to achieve it!! If taxation is at a 75 year high it can only be imagined what the idiots in govt will further do to taxation!
Johnson happy to spend ÂŁ800 per roll for wall paper as long as he did not have to pay for it! Then through his lack of integrity happy for his party to pay for it, got caught and then offered to pay. He has no economic, fiscal or household budget integrity.
March 2, 2022
+1 LL
“You cannot judge most politicians by what they say as it is so often totally untrue and the complete opposite of what they actually do.”
Well said. When it comes to honesty with the electorate, the LibDems were closest saying they would ignore our democratic vote. Not very wise though! Why are the majority of our politicians such a bunch of liars and incompetents? Do they enter politics with deceit in mind, or does the system somehow push them into it?
March 2, 2022
+1
LL, you know they will not do as you propose. 12 years in govt should have cleared your thoughts they will say anything with No intention whatsoever of implementing it. Cameron also claimed rural Tories to be turnip Taliban, the same Taliban Truss gave hundred million our taxes to after years of telling us they were the enemy!
How about our sovereignty or borders?? Why worry and speak about Ukraine when he has failed us on the same issues on Brexit and annexing N.Ireland?
March 2, 2022
Although I am not one of them, I know many diehard Tory voters. They are completely disillusioned with the current and recent Tory governments. I canât see many of them voting Labour but quite a lot will vote Lib Dem or not bother voting. This may be enough to get a Labour coalition in power.
Partygate will be forgotten by the next election. Itâs already forgotten! And thatâs before the so-called report and investigation.
But the cost of living will not be forgiven. As the saying goes âitâs the economy, stupidâ. The obsession with net zero and the frankly inane and incompetent energy policy will cause pain to people. So theyâll vote for someone else.
Just imagine the posters now. A quote from the Tory manifesto.
They promised NO tax rises. They LIED.
Your energy bills have doubled under Johnsonâs Tories.
They locked you in your homes and went to a party.
The Tories really are sitting ducks at the next election.
March 2, 2022
Here you go again LL, peddling the Labour / SNP coalition lie.
You do this to frighten other people into voting Tory because YOU are scared that if Labour (and only Labour) come to power they will tax YOU and your business. That there is the TRUTH !!
What you fail to understand is, for the SNP to offer give their support they will demand Indy Ref 2.0. There is no way a PM, even a Labour one, is going to do that as no PM wants to have as their final legacy of the UK breaking up. So it ain’t going to happen, so please stop peddling this nonsense.
March 2, 2022
Oh I forgot to add.
Given this Tory government predilection for Labour’s policies, what make you think that they will not introduce measure to impoverished people like YOU ? After all, wasn’t it Gideon Osborne that ended a large number of tax breaks ?
So thought process and conclusions (ie Labour / SNP Government) do not stand up to even a modicum of scrutiny.
March 3, 2022
If Labour/SNP/Plaid/Green… get in then Labour will surely offer an Indi ref 2 in order to grab power. Labour can surely only get in with SNP support.
March 4, 2022
LL, you do not make any sense, but OK I start with your comment:
Lab/SNP come to power, Labour offer (or has offered) an Indi Ref 2 to Scotland. The SNP wins IndyRef2 and leaves the UK. The coalition Lab/SNP disappears, around 40-45 SNP MPs leave Westminster and Labourâs representation in Parliament likely becomes smaller than the CUPâs one.
LifeâLogicâ? Really? You didnât do PPE all these years ago and ⊠it shows.
March 3, 2022
Mark,
you forget Cameron was going to answer the Lothian question to stop SNP voting on English matters. They gave a crumb and Gove recently took it away!! That demonstrates to me Socialist Tories want the SNP to vote on/against English matters.
March 3, 2022
+1
March 2, 2022
The solutions arenât very simple to enact. Your thinking is, indeed unproductive, one of your favourite words.
After years churning out the same stuff, you have achieved nothing.
March 3, 2022
Perfectly simple to enact but alas no political will even to try to do so.
March 2, 2022
heritage.org, 01/06/2004, âThe Laffer Curve: Past, present and futureâ, by Arthur Laffer.
I would encourage people to have it âfrom the horseâs mouthâ, considering all points that are actually pointed out in this long article.
You might get some insights both on the history and the arithmetic vs economic effects of this all-time (well, the last hundred years) favourite of politicians. Check the âSizeâ, âTimingâ and âLocationsâ of tax cuts.
March 2, 2022
Lifelogic. Oh, how I agree with you!
March 2, 2022
Yes me too Pauline
March 2, 2022
More wasteful government “investment” has gone up in smoke -literally-in the past few days.From a very reliable source:
“NATO’s future base in Ochakovo-financed by the British-was totally destroyed by Iskander missiles in the first hours of the campaign.
Top strategic target.Threatened Crimea and whole of south of Russia.”
(Ochakovo is a port on the Ukrainian coast just west of Crimea.)
As I have pointed out before-or tried to-Ukraine may not be in NATO but NATO is already in Ukraine….or was.
March 3, 2022
There has been a developing debate over the last 30 years as to whether NATO should be reviewed, repurposed, or whether it should exist at all, right across the political spectrum of its countries.
Putin by his recent actions has removed any doubt at all as to those matters, however.
Until his thug rule is ended by the will of the Russian people themselves then NATO’s future seems assured.
Which is a great pity for the world.
March 3, 2022
Reviewed by whom?You will be given no say in these matters.
March 3, 2022
Presidents and PMs are elected in NATO member countries on manifestoes.
This topic is, I think, likely to feature in them from now on.
March 2, 2022
L/L. Keep up the good posts.
March 2, 2022
Nail on head, Lifelogic.
March 2, 2022
A refusal to cut direct taxes is an act of party politics and a reflection of a party that is utterly insincere but moreover a party that is both morally and culturally bankrupt. Such a policy stance places the party before the common man and Labour’s unionised public sector before the taxpayer. This is the new Tory party, defending the Tory-Labour status quo at all costs and abusing the taxpayer in the process
Cutting direct taxes for employees risks the accusation of the party being accused of ‘selfishness’ or ‘starving the NHS of funds’. Forget the fact that the public sector is now beyond reform and a bottomless pit of waste and lethargy while the private sector employee is exposed to the harsh realities of economic life while public sector employees enjoy every conceivable benefit
When will the Tory party take sides in the way Labour does? What’s the problem with that approach or have the Tories become a party that doesn’t give a flying rat about anything except staying close or in power?
A cake and eat it party who’s been deceiving the voter for decades. A party that is worse than Labour. At least we can SEE Labour despise the majority, freedom, liberty and the private sector
March 2, 2022
Well I’m afraid the voter is as much to blame as anyone.
Millions say it often enough ‘they are all the same’ and here we are with a Labour tribute act in power because people will still only vote Lab/Cons for the most stupid reasons on earth.
March 3, 2022
So how come they were so “wise” in voting Leave then?
March 2, 2022
+10000
Who spoke about âplacements in every cabinetâ?
I guess thatâs how the commies destroyed the Church.
And that weeping journoâŠit turns outâŠwasnât what she appeared to be.
Lots of these Global Young Leaders about.
March 2, 2022
@Dom you say:- âForget the fact that the public sector is now beyond reform and a bottomless pit of waste and lethargy while the private sector employee is exposed to the harsh realities of economic life while public sector employees enjoy every conceivable benefitâ I largely agree in management and the upper levels but many of the people at the coal face this is not so. NHS new doctors (for example) are paid appallingly. New doctors start on ~ ÂŁ29K with long unsociable hours and poor (dangerous even) job conditions and often with ÂŁ100k+ of student debt with 6% interest PA on it after ~ 6 years training. Where often less bright students in law, consultancy or the city can start on more like ÂŁ60k to ÂŁ120k directly after three or four year at university.
March 2, 2022
It’s true, it’s a choice between honest socialism and false capitalism also known as socialism. He should take a lesson from Ireland. Nobody accuses them of unbridled capitalism for supporting industry and employment with lower corporation taxes and grants
March 2, 2022
its a one party state while Labour remain totally unelectable.
we really need a new force in politics, which picks far better candidates for elections.
March 2, 2022
âthe public sector is now beyond reform and a bottomless pit of waste and lethargyâ ?
The legacy parties only have one solution to inefficiency, MORE MONEY!
March 2, 2022
On election they say they have to think about the people who didn’t vote for them.
The Red Wall vote was used as an excuse to go – well – Red. Instead of destroying Woke and getting Brexit done properly.
All to the good.
The Tories are going to have to fight the next general election against a backdrop of grinding poverty that they caused. This can no longer be avoided. It’s here already.
March 3, 2022
“Getting brexit done properly”
That makes as much sense as “chimps having a sh** fight well-manneredly”, or “wildebeest having a stampede calmly and thoughtfully”.
Tsk.
How we chuckle.
March 2, 2022
Excellent question from a young female MP (not sure who) to Maggie Throup on the surely very clear net harm being done by vaccinations when they are at such low risk anyway and the side effect risks (even just the known ones) are much higher.
Pathetic answer from Throupe hiding behind JCVI (who did not even get the vaccination roll out order right) and saying it was only âan offerâ. So a government offer to do net harm your children then so that is OK. She surely should resign.
March 2, 2022
+100000
The harm and suffering! And more in the pipeline.
March 2, 2022
Vaccinations to the young & children that is.
March 2, 2022
All the evidence is that vaccines cause more harm than good to children!!
Will the 200,000 Ukrainians all be tested and vaccinated?
What about saving our NHS? Mass immigration overwhelms it!
March 3, 2022
Hope, what evidence? Can you be a bitty more precise, a few statistics from your preferred websites with references, maybe?
Which 200,000 Ukrainians? Have they already arrived in the UK?
IainG, Where is your proof that âvaccinations for children are certainly NOT provenâ? References, please.
NLA, Could you provide a reference that âyoung people and children are more at risk from vaccine side effects than Covidâ?
March 2, 2022
the vaccinations for children are certainly NOT proven in the cost/benefit or health risk equations.
and the way they are being done, often against the parents wishes, is outrageous.
its little more than a self fulfilling job creation scheme for the public sector.
doesnt stand up to any proper scientific or financial scrutiny.
March 2, 2022
Fat chance of her resigning, when even the liar-in chief won’t resign.
March 2, 2022
True enough. If a vaccine doesn’t stop you getting Covid and it doesn’t stop you passing it on how can it possibly be justified in young people and children who are more at risk from vaccine side effects than Covid ?
March 3, 2022
It markedly reduces the chances of both infection and of passing it on.
The real world is not about infantile absolutes.
March 3, 2022
There seems little doubt it does rather more harm than good in children and even young adults if you look at the stats properly.
March 9, 2022
LL, could you please show us how to look at stats properly, with examples so that anybody can understand why the present presentation of stats is incorrect and biased.
March 2, 2022
Anyone who voted for Brexit, and its barriers to trade at the ports, massive extra paperwork for every single importer and exporter in the land and depletion of our workforce, even understands what a “free enterprise” economy is, let alone supports it
March 2, 2022
The Chancellor doesnât need to moither on about productivity.
He just needs to butt out and stop taxing.
March 2, 2022
Whilst the Sunak response to the Covid pandemic was quick and imaginative ,I remain totally unimpressed by his subsequernt actions and he will not be getting my vote in a leadership contest
He says one thing and does the opposite
He flies in the face of the evidence as JR avers
He is a Janus faced prisoner to the Treasury and should be independently minded
March 2, 2022
I would call it more than ‘disappointing’ that Sunak’s lecture said nothing about the energy crisis and little about the cost of living crisis. These are surely the two most crucial economic issues right now, and the UK Chancellor had no suggestions to make on either of them. He should not be in the job.
March 2, 2022
Sounds like the speech was drafted by Treasury civil servants.
A pity. Sunak is perhaps the best trained chancellor weâve had, and has previously seemed very sound.
March 2, 2022
Nobody can take anything that billionaire posh boy Rishi says seriously. If you care about growth you donât back Brexit. We know Brexit causes huge economic harm and damages growth. This isnât even a debate about it anymore among serious people – though we know there arenât many serious people in the Tory party right now. Posh boy Rishi doesnât care about growth. It doesnât affect him in any of his mansions.
March 3, 2022
Check the current growth figures for the UK versus G7 nations before you post such nonsense young andy
March 3, 2022
P2, are you talking about the statistics over the last day, last week, last month, last year, the Covid period, last three years, last five years, since the 24/06/2016, last ten years?
As I guess you know very well (you are a businessman after all), growth is what is computed from an increment between two values at different times, and an increment can only be defined over a given period of time. So could you be precise (for once) and tell us what your period of reference is.
Your formulation âcurrent growth figureâ appears to indicate you have access not to an increment but to dGDP/dt, the derivative of GDP with respect to time. Which I doubt very much that you (or anybody else, for that matter) can compute đ.
March 3, 2022
Gosh what an essay heffy.
All so aggressive and sarcastic.
Best growth in the G7
If you think I’m wrong prove it.
March 3, 2022
PS
For your information heffy,
I was quoting the IMF report saying the UK economy will grow 4.7% this year.
They say:-
The UK will grow the faster than any other G7 nation.
USA 4%
Germany 3.8%
Japan 3.3%
Italy 3.8%
France 3.5%
Canada 4.1%
UK 4.7%
The crucial point is that this relates to a time when you remainers said it would be a time of post brexit economic disaster.
No wonder you get so aggressive and bitter when faced with these great figures for the UK
March 4, 2022
Oh P2, you bring back the remainersâ economic disaster. Has there not been something called Covid since mid-2016? Impact of which in the UK was the largest among the G7 countries? Past figures show that (International comparisons of GDP during the coronavirus pandemic, ons.gov.uk).
Having lost the most, is it surprising that the UK is now growing the most, simply catching up to a pre-Covid level?
As shown in the IMF World Economic Outlook Update(imf.org, âRising caseloads, a disrupted recovery, and higher inflation, January 2022) Table 1 page 6 indeed gives the 4.7% projection figure for UK GDP growth in 2022, and 2.3% for 2023, but it also shows the actual -9.4% in 2020 and 7.2% in 2021.
So 100 in 2019 becomes 90.6 in 2020 becomes 97.1 in 2021 might become 101.7 in 2022 and 104.0 in 2023.
Now do the same for the Euro area, with figures of -6.4% in in 2020, +5.2% in 2021, +3.9% in 2022 and +2.5% in 2023. Thatâs respectively 93.6 in 2020, 98.5 in 2021, 102.3 in 2022 and 104.9 in 2023. All figures better than the UKâs.
And I will stop my essay here and let you work out the annual figures for, say, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Japan, Canada and the USA finishing in 2023 respectively at 104.2, 103.4, 102.6, 102.7, 102.0, 109.9 and 108.8.
Just a last point, the absence of mathematical comprehension even in âbusiness peopleâ is rather frightening.
March 5, 2022
I suggest you address your second essay onto the IMF heffy.
It is their report comparing G7 nations on growth rates for 2022 that I am quoting.
Argue with them.
I realise this report clashes dreadfully with your world view and must be very irritating for all you left leaning remainers who predicted economic disater for the UK at this time.
March 5, 2022
How strange P2, I do not doubt the IMF report. I am just putting its very numbers in a slightly wider context than you do. Thatâs it.
I realise this report clashes dreadfully with your expectations and must be very irritating for all you leavers who mid-2016 were predicting/expecting sunlit uplands for the Global UK and who more than five years later have very little to show for it, apart from a Minister for BOG(e).
Obviously Covid and now Ukraine are/will be the fig leaves allowing you to dismiss any questions about why cost-of-living, energy prices, level of taxation, deteriorating NHS, the UKâs international image ⊠have all taken a turn for the worse.
But as a good Conservative ox youâll go plodding on and choosing carefully picked up data to prove you have always been right.
Reply EU and US inflation higher than U.K. and GDP growth last year lower. 2 Brexit wins!
March 2, 2022
Nice summary. Sunak is overrated. The Conservative Party does seem to have a problem with its candidate selection but the good news is that there is no shortage of MPs who could fill the Chancellorship.
March 9, 2022
Reply to reply: yes, last year: you take the same biased approach as P2 not considering the impact on GDP over the two-years Covid period.
March 2, 2022
Do you think that as the Chancellor thought it prudent to cancel the triple lock, that it also might be prudent and even wise to cancel the ÂŁ2200 MP pay rise. The ÂŁ80000 they have, with expenses, I am sure is quite enough to live on. Well it seems Rishi thinks my pension is.
March 3, 2022
Or the ÂŁ17bn going to overseas aid.
March 3, 2022
BW, Specially when some often get as much or more working on the side ⊠cough cough cough âfor the benefit of their electorsâ.
March 3, 2022
Give us names hef
I presume you have facts and evidence?
Cough indeed.
March 5, 2022
What about you looking at the Lordsâ and MPsâ Register of Financial Interests, sorting out donations to constituencies from salaries.
March 2, 2022
The public sector is out of control. Who is sanctioning the massive waste of tax payerâs money that is being allowed? At a time of hardship for most of the UK population, we see the proliferation of non-jobs related to net-zero and diversity. How was the increase in the number of managers receiving six-figure salaries allowed to happen? Iâm sure figures will be available that show the meteoric increase of wages for the top public sector officials. This question needs to be asked in the house and those responsible shamed. It seems the Civil Service, NHS, and Councils have a blank cheque approach funded by the rest of us.
March 3, 2022
No, the public sector is controlled by the respective ministries.
March 2, 2022
Sounds like a very muddled lecture, which can be summed up as: “I know I’m a sinner so please God, make me a tax cutting Conservative ……. but not yet.”
Watch what they do …… Sunak is a slimmer, more media savvy Gordon Brown leading a left wing Treasury.
March 2, 2022
Caught between the Treasury and books he has read.
March 2, 2022
Does anybody really listen to this man anymore
March 2, 2022
I see the Brexitists are now using their hard fought freedoms to legalise dangerous pesticides. Just like we said they would. (They said âProject Fear we wonât!â)
Anyway the dangerous substance in question is a type of neonicotinoid – which is basically banned in the EU because it kills bees. Bees being sort of important for pollination.
Anyway, Brexitists, just wondering how many of you voted leave so we could use dangerous chemicals to kill bees? Anyone? No, thought not.
March 3, 2022
More partial quoting from you young andy.
DEFRA have allowed just one type thiamethoxam, to be used in authorised emergency situations only and on sugar beet only.
This is to avert the risk of yellows virus spread by aphids wich can devastate sugar beet crops.
In 2020 nearly all the UKs crop was wiped out.
DEFRA spoke of strict controls and only temporary emergency authorisations.
To minimise the risk to bees, farmers will be banned from growing flowering plants for 32 months after the sugar beet crop.
Even the NFU is in full agreement.
March 3, 2022
Many of them voted precisely to upset the sort of people who are concerned about the UK’s wildlife and bees.
Their vehemence in the first dominates any concern that they might have over the second, it seems.
So they are perhaps content in their twisted way.
March 3, 2022
Another unsubstantiated smear from you NHL
March 2, 2022
Eve though you are an MP in the governing party the impression given is that you are banging your head against a brick wall, so imagine how the rest of us feel.
March 2, 2022
Sounds like this speech was part of his leadership campaign, ie. what he says will happen if he becomes leader, rather than an explanation of his current actual policy which seems the exact reverse.
March 2, 2022
I’m just wondering how the Chancellor’s vision of prosperity fits in a world where China sees the West looking on at the genocide in Ukraine. They will know they can just go in and take Taiwan with no one stopping them, because it’s not part of NATO. Will the western world take the same economic sanctions with China, knowing it will completely wreck our economy?
March 2, 2022
Did not hear the lecture, but inflation will cut the real debt in value terms.
Well known in Financial circles that inflation at 7.5% will reduce the value of your money by half in less than 10 years.
So how badly does he really want to cut inflation ?
Are the printing presses still powered up just waiting for instructions.?
Meanwhile the rest of us are suffering from fiscal drag on all sorts of tax allowances, and a wider range of tax take policies, as well as inflation, which means we have less to spend.
March 2, 2022
And the wheels on the bus goes round and round.
Pathetic. Not a single word about addressing all the waste that is hemorrhages out of the system on a daily basis.
What a lonesome path you tread Sir John and with this lot your cross will get heavier
You cannot make it up
March 3, 2022
Hear hear.
March 2, 2022
How about seizing all the properties of Russian oligarchs in London – and using them to house Ukrainian refugees?
March 3, 2022
I agree with the seizure of the proceeds of crime but not with the seizure of private property, which is, of course, something very communist. So I suggest that we should tackle the oligarch problem, largely, through the UWO route. Further, I would suggest that we should have beeen doing that a decade ago.
March 3, 2022
Assets acquired by the proceeds of crime are still the proceeds of crime.
March 3, 2022
Once proven in a court of law.
Andy wants seizure of all properties.
No mention of any due process.
March 3, 2022
How did anyone, in a supposedly previously communist country, suddenly personally acquire a vast share of the assets of that country by what any reasonable person would say were just means?
March 3, 2022
That’s beside the point.
If you or anyone else has proof of illegality then report it.
Otherwise we operate on a system of innocent until proven guilty in a Court of law.
There is a growing danger that any person previously from Russia could have their assets frozen if they lived in the UK just because you and young Andy don’t like them.
March 4, 2022
It is, absolutely THE point.
March 5, 2022
The real point is you need to be able to prove your suspicians in a court of law.
Odd you now favour removing someones wealth, the freezing of their assets and expulsion from the UK just because you dont like them.
March 3, 2022
In fact Russia has been welcoming Ukrainian refugees since 2014, many thousands of them. Only they have been from the Donbas, forced from their homes by relentless shelling by the Kiev regime’s military for years. The ‘wrong’ kind of refugees, perhaps, from under-informed young Andy’s perspective.
March 2, 2022
Well said.
Could it be that the reason he ignores past history and obvious truths is because he has some other agenda?
If he cannot see the damage his tax rises will do then he has no qualifications to be in that job.
March 2, 2022
Sunak’s approach is due to his juniority in years and not standing up to the senior civil servants in the Treasury. This ‘left leaning lot’ are pushing all they can for a bigger and bigger state which will ensure that we will never truly recover from the pandemic deficit.
Take him to one side Sir John and clearly explain the effect of lower taxes. He needs guidance as the treasury is getting out of hand and far too strong. It captured his predecessor and they are very close to doing the same to him.
March 3, 2022
Cut Corporation Tax to 15% for business with a turnover of over, say ÂŁ5m and 20% for the rest and watch the money flow in as the Irish have discovered.
Simplify and reduce Stamp Duty and let the proceeds from this go to Local Authorities to build social housing.
March 3, 2022
It is going up to 25%!
March 2, 2022
This remains the worst government and House of Commons in my lifetime.
March 2, 2022
The redundant thoughts of a superannuated Chancellor. What is he in office for?
March 2, 2022
Re “Today by common wish we have the state as a near monopoly buyer of healthcare and education” not by my common wish. Or indeed many people I know. It just looks like that in the woke political/journalistic bubble which has agreed amongst itself a lot of things that the parties will not disagree on, giving the public no input whatsoever.
People I know have had cancer diagnosis delayed, are in queues for cancer treatment with no visibility of when or if that may happen. They would far rather have a cheque from a state backed medical insurance company to take to a provider of their choice, than languish in this rationing and allocation on the whim of a mandarin.
As for schools there is an illusion of choice, the only real choices involve moving house to another catchment area. People stuck in a locality with sink schools are stuck with sink schools, I can promise you that they are not happy, and the idea that the political class has their “common wish” is delusional. There is no choice for the mobile workforce either, as soon as they move to a new town they are inevitably too late to be on the school selection lists, and always end up with the worst school in town, the idea that you have their “common wish” is nonsense.
These are obvious gaps between the real people in the real world, and the constant barrage of what the political bubble and journalists claim people think and want.
March 2, 2022
He is a politician, judge him by his actions not by his words. He may well wish for the economy he alludes to, but will he create the groundwork. I am not convinced.
March 2, 2022
On the subject of economic and industrial policy, the Tory party and government supported by MPs is still based on prostituting our nation.
Government and MPs will no doubt think that the sale of Williams Advanced Engineering to an Australian company by a City outfit yesterday is minor and of no concern and praised as progressive ‘inward investment’. But there is massive talk about developing new tech here and how it will grow our economy, yet it seems the only objective is to get businesses ready for sale for foreign money. Another example of government prostitution of us.
And what will happen to us as the economic, or worse, world war grows and foreign owned companies decide to take their assets home. What is left for us.
That will show how the Tory party and its government policy of inward investment has sold us into poverty and starvation. Except of course the City spivs and elites who will disappear to safe havens with the fortunes they have made.
And we have no home owned commercial shipping of consequence and not much of a military navy to defend our shipping lanes – how will Boris and Sir John explain that?
March 2, 2022
I passed on Mr Sunak’s lecture, seeing no point is listening to a person who has demonstrated his willingness to cheat people.
March 3, 2022
+1
Good point.
March 2, 2022
Off Piste but highly relevant. How about a couple of Eagle Squadrons of A10s just to discourage russians using the roads of Ukraine.
March 2, 2022
Who’s going to bury the A10 pilots, Agricola?
March 3, 2022
A good idea – if done a couple of years ago.
March 2, 2022
He seems to be keen on achieving the exact opposite, I donât recognise this country as the one I grew up in , I feel a sense of total despair which Iâm sure is shared by a sizeable section of the population and I hope that itâs reflected at the Ballot Box
March 2, 2022
A further suggestion. Use all assets the oligarchs and Putin have outside Russia, and 99% are outside Russia, to rebuild Ukraine after this russian inspired war dies out.
March 2, 2022
I see it is being reported on Guido Fawkes that the Public Accounts Committee has released a truly damming report, which says the Government does not have a clue how much their net Zero Policy is going to cost.
How on earth can Government and opposition Party’s support such an idea/policy with so few facts, and with absolutely no idea of costs.
Once again madness, utter madness.
March 2, 2022
You ask how, Alan? I fear the answer is all too simple – just don’t do a cost/benefit analysis, as we saw with the Covid lockdowns.
March 3, 2022
It is not just the government that does not have a clue, it is the people who will be implementing it. I watched them on the Parliament Channel being questioned by a committee – It was clear that they did not have a clue as they could not answer a single question just saying that Net Zero is too big a project to explain. ie They did not have a clue what it was all about and, even if they did, what to do about it.
An epic disaster in the making.
March 2, 2022
It seems history has become what ever story you tell yourself to justify your actions.
I remember, as a young accountant, spending weeks on drawing up schemes to minimise a client’s tax bill.
It cost him a fortune, but it was worth it. This was back in the days when a Labour MP moaned on the BBC about the Tory budget because it favoured the rich, by not increasing the highest tax rate in accordance with the increases in the lower bands. The host, a devout BBCer, nodded sagely. Fortunately, an accountant on the panel pointed out that to do so would take the top rate of tax over 100%!
Reducing taxes always increases the ÂŁ tax take. I have deep suspicions about Sunak…
March 2, 2022
Yes Lifelogic, I have heard that repost before . Some government official , I cannot remember who! Said , in reply to a question about injury compensation from vaccination â we only offered the injection, you chose to accept so its your own problemâ, nice!
March 2, 2022
I understand that Mr Sunak graduated with a First in PPE from Lincoln College Oxford.
Maybe he should have focused less on PP and more on the E ?
March 2, 2022
It seems to me to be a two pronged approach. The first is to raise taxes now in order to have tax cuts before the next election, which Sunak has more or less said he wants to do, in the hope we all have short memories and will be grateful for Tory ‘largesse’, so cynical are the government of the electorate. The second conclusion I come to is that this government has no intention of making use of any Brexit opportunities, except for the way Boris is now strutting the world stage which he always wanted to do and would have been unable to under the EU. I conclude this government does not want the UK to be successful outside the EU and does want to try to provoke dissatisfaction among the public and a clamour to re-join.
March 2, 2022
I am afraid I have written off the Chancellor as a lost cause. He has been subsumed into the remainiac Treasury. I had such high hopes of him before he took office.
March 3, 2022
Rose
After all the bad decisions that seem to be made on a daily basis with little or no concerns on the population. I think I will be joining lots of people who will not be voting for the usual three but will be looking for something just different.
Con/Lib/Lab in their present mindsets are finished a busted flush.
March 3, 2022
I am not so sure that Rishi lost much sleep when he learnt that rose has âwritten him off as a lost causeâ.
March 2, 2022
“restrain the impulse of other Ministers to favour imports over home production in a wide range of areas.”
Including immigration which Sunak is a cheerleader for.
March 2, 2022
Sir JR,
I understand from your twitter account taht you believe the EU are trying to udnermine NI.
I understand from the foreign office that the negotiations are progressing well with the Eu,so shold we not give them a chance first, before we start talking about undermining issues?
Reply Over a year of talks and no sign of any understanding of why the majority community in NI has pulled out of the First Minister office and is so unhappy.
March 2, 2022
The ERG and DUP should remember that “brexit” is short for “Britain’s exit” and not for “the UK’s exit”.
And as we all know “brexit means brexit”.
It indeed does, so they should stop whining about something which is nothing to do with it, shouldn’t they?
March 3, 2022
To reply +1.
March 2, 2022
As you point out, quite a lot oif muddled thinking. I could not help wondering how much of it had been put together for him by his Treasury Civil Masters.
March 2, 2022
A weak speech by a man with little real understanding of economics (and economics is, at best, a nascent discipline with its major oft-cited works by Keynes, Smith and Marx being abouty as different as it’s possible to be).
Productivity is an interesting one – a true test for any politician. Few of them define what tehy mean by “productivity”. The most commonly used macro economic measure of productivity is GDP per capita or GDP per hour worked, which is often what they mean when they loosely use the term.
However… this is by definition a measure of how much tax is generated by an hour’s work across the workforce of an entire country. It is NOT a measure of how much work-related product is being created, but that is the way it’s made to sound.
If Fred makes a million widgets a day but pays no tax, according to these definitions his productivity is zero. However, his employer is probably quite happy with Fred’s performance since his actual work output is enormous.
So – macro-economic productivity does not apply to worker, but to taxation. Therefore Mr Sunak needs to look tohimself and hs own tax policies as to why GDP per capita is falling. Hint: Laffer curve.
And Mr Laffer can only help in broad terms too, since his famous curve was simply a diagram drawn on a restaurant napkin as an illustration of tax take vs tax rates.
Sunak could also learn from the Weimar Republic (responsible for Germany’s massive performance after WW2) and JFK’s administration who came to power promising to cuttaxes as a moral issue, expecting revenues to fall – and were suprrised when cutting taxes saw revenues grow strongly. Learn from history, Sunak, or move aside for someone who can.
March 2, 2022
The problem is Sir J, your party is full of liars. Sunak wants a âlower tax economy”, lie. Barclay seeks “to restore a smaller state”, lie. Kwarteng,”Remember: renewables are cheaper than gas”, lie. I don’t believe any of the BS that comes out of a Tory cabinet minister’s mouth. I can’t see myself voting Tory until they have proved they are a conservative party again.
March 2, 2022
Down to the tens of thousands…
March 3, 2022
+1 lies, lies, lies and manifesto and triple lock ratting too. Tax grabs even before Covid. Sunak even claims he wants a sound currency!
March 2, 2022
How nice to see the Commons on its feet and applauding Ukraine’s ambassador just now – very moving.
March 2, 2022
Now that China has condemned the invasion we’re going to see sanctions and embargoes against Putin.
Phew !
March 3, 2022
China will have been shocked at the World’s robust reaction to Russia’s aggression. But I still think that China will seek to profit from the West’s divestments of Russian assets.
March 3, 2022
Er, Tibet, like…
March 2, 2022
“The lecture talks of the need to raise the productivity performance of the economy.”
How often have we heard this? Why should we expect to do better when we allow neo-liberalism and ‘Save the Planet’ insanity to drive economic policy. Successful countries protect and nurture their productive industries, not sell them off to the highest bidder like the Tories who are now apparently suffering seller’s remorse for their green light to the the sale of ARM Holdings to a Japanese Hedge Fund to demonstrate that post-Brexit we were still open for business, apparently. What hope is their for a country that can only choose the dimmest in the land to rule them because the inequitable electoral system ensures it. Banksters and rentiers achieve wealth transfer not wealth creation, yet the HoC is full of such people.
March 3, 2022
+1
March 2, 2022
The Chancellor contradicts himself and defeats his own arguments all in the same lecture! ‘Concentrating on people, capital and ideas’? With a state sector consuming over 50% of everything with himself, Alexander Johnson and the Con party all socialist, leaves little room for entrepaneurs. High taxation, over regulation, import everything and an energy crisis that is perfectly soluble, what hope is there?
March 2, 2022
âThe railways have effectively been renationalised. â
Not true. You could say it has been INEFFECTIVELY renationalised. That is the model where the private sector takes any profit and the public sector bears any losses.
The track maintenance had to be taken back after Hatfield because the private sector could not be trusted to ensure safety.
The franchise model allows companies to rely on subsidies and walk away when the business no longer suits. There is no long term vision or plans to improve services. Just sweat the existing assets for as long as they turn a profit.
March 2, 2022
I see the US National Energy Institute is reportedly lobbying the White House not to sanction uranium supplies from Russia. That might shut down US nuclear reactors and massively affect US energy needs. They must hope Russia doesn’t put an export ban on uranium to the US. Perhaps ‘The West’ is beginning now to wake up to the possible impact of its sanctions on Russia. It can start an economic war but can it finish it?
March 3, 2022
Uranium can be sourced from elsewhere.
March 2, 2022
Yes. I am surprised by his speech. The obvious contradictions undermining his credibility. It was as if it was a date in his diary to fulfil, tick a box and move on.
Why didnât his legion of advisers unpick the reality of his comments as you have?
Maybe he didnât want to be too political to be accused of challenging Boris or more sinister pressures like unelected Treasury mandarins?
You will of course know. I think the electorate deserves to also.
March 2, 2022
‘I’ . . . . . . Agree with what you say Sir John. As would any real conservative. Or indeed anyone with some knowledge of economics, tax and how best to run the country.
Then there is the little matter of whether or not we have actually left the E.U.’s mindset.
It is fine YOU talking common sense on these matters but as I’ve said before, your ‘Party’ continues to do the opposite.
In this case, as you almost say yourself, the Chancellor of the Exchequer begins with declarations which turn out to be ‘porkies’.
March 2, 2022
I was attracted by an event next month but when I attempted to buy a ticket I discovered that unfortunately Ticketmaster are the agents and are operating a ‘smartphone owners only’ policy (so-called ‘mobile ticketing’). For the same reason I will not be attending sporting events later in the year. During the recent covid panic the Government came close to limiting access to certain venues to those with smartphones that could run the NHS app. America are ahead of us here and some states have legislation mandating that alternative phone-free means of entry must be provided. Do we need legislation here or is it part of the ‘free market’ that organisers can discriminate against certain parts of society at the cost of reduced potential custom?
March 3, 2022
Very much so – some pubs are offering “dine with your dog” where if you come with one of the blessed things then you get 20% off your meal and they feed your dog too.
March 2, 2022
âIf he wants to grow with faster productivity he needs to address the chronic shortage of affordable energy for industry in the UKâŠ.â
Itâs going to be worse than a âchronic shortage of affordable energy for industryâ.
The Net Zero Strategy, requiring a decarbonised electricity supply based upon intermittent, low energy density windmill power, coupled with enormous increases in electrical demand through the electrification of transport and heating, will not be able to supply the power required and hence it will be necessary for demand to match supply, rather than the existing supply matching demand, and this will be done through volatile pricing and rolling blackouts.
This Marxist Net Zero Strategy euphemistically calls this âdemand side flexibilityâ.
March 3, 2022
And MASSIVE population increase / demand !
March 2, 2022
BEIS: Russia â Ukraine and UK Energy : factsheet : 25/02/2022
âThe UKâs exposure to volatile global gas prices underscores the importance of our plan to generate more cheap, clean renewable energy and nuclear power in the UK to reduce our reliance on expensive fossil fuels.â
Firstly renewable energy is not âcheapâ and its true costs are never calculated because the additional costs of mitigating its intermittency â backup and grid stability – are never taken into account.
Secondly, the Government will have closed down 7.8GW of nuclear power by 2028, leaving only 1.2GW (Sizewell B, which closes in 2035) and the still to be finished Hinkley Point C (3.2GW).
There is no plan to generate âmore nuclear powerâ, so why do they publish this nonsense?
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/russia-ukraine-and-uk-energy-factsheet
March 3, 2022
Yes, but no mention of the volatile weather and when the sun is either behind clouds or on the other side of the planet.
Morons, the lot of them.
March 2, 2022
I think that the lecture is OK. He stated the basic ingredients for development and included ethics. He also stated that it was not his business to tell people how to achieve this as innovation must come from the most creative. I do think that as a priority ,people come before capital though but agree that motivating the ability for people to achieve by an almost hedenistic principle would take away reliance on state monies, but hedenism can also leak in crime.
March 2, 2022
sp .. hedonism …..
March 2, 2022
Oh how we laughed. The stories politicians tell – funny really that they know what to say and even funnier that they have no intention whatsoever of doing anything but the reverse of what they say.
No wonder president Putin is such a shock. He is based in reality rather than the Oxford Union.
March 3, 2022
Or what the BBC or pressure groups say.