Last year economic policy was expansion minded. The Bank of England carried on printing lots of money and kept interest rates around zero. The Treasury decided they could live with a large deficit and allow more spending. No big tax rises were allowed. As expected the economy recovered quickly from the lockdowns.Inflation leapt up as the monetary stimulus was too big.
Some including the Treasury blame world energy prices for the inflation. This does not explain why Japan still has practically no inflation despite depending on imports of oil and gas. Nor does it explain high importing China’s low inflation. The U.K. has almost as much inflation as the USA and Euro area who printed even more money and kept rates lower for longer.
This year the Treasury has hiked taxes and the Bank has hiked interest rates whilst ending money printing. They have chosen to do this as energy and food led inflation is taking a huge lump out of people’s spending power, acting like a bumper tax rise. This means the economy will slow sharply.The Treasury and Bank have gone from being too lax to being too tough.
Taxing jobs through National Insurance rises is wrong. Hiking the company tax rate next year will deter investment. These policies will cripple growth and lead to a bigger budget deficit. You need growth to get the borrowing down. The government also needs better spending discipline .
April 25, 2022
Oh dear we are in a buggers middle.
April 25, 2022
Muddle
April 25, 2022
yep in the middle of a muddle.
April 26, 2022
Don’t meddle, Mickey.
April 25, 2022
The UK is more exposed than most to global energy price spikes because its light-touch regulated, only-for-profit energy suppliers disposed of almost all of its storage capacity to reduce costs and therefore increase dividends.
That position arose through blind adherence to right wing think tank doctrine, like so much else.
It had a labour supply crisis in logistics and agriculture caused by Tory brexit, and predictable wage inflation in these areas, which equally predictably has also fed through into general inflation.
So we now have a cost-of-living issue forcing households to cease all manner of economic activity.
It’s quite easy to grasp, really.
April 25, 2022
PS, Japan and China had nothing like the deaths-per-million from covid19 that did the UK.
Thanks to assiduous test, track, and isolate on their parts they needed to make far less use of extended general lockdowns than did the UK.
The economic effects of this might be harder to quantify, but it certainly can’t have done them any harm.
April 26, 2022
Maybe they only counted those who actually died “of” Covid, rather than those who just died “with” it?
April 25, 2022
Wrong as usual NHL
It’s because we are reliant on imported energy and under 3 terms of Labour we never made a decision at that vital time to invest in nuclear energy as France did.
April 25, 2022
Japan and China aren’t part of the great reset.
Their governments aren’t trying to bankrupt households so they can’t afford heating motoring or flying abroad for holidays.
There is nothing accidental or natural about what’s going on.
Maybe Putin has exposed the whole scam
April 25, 2022
As you say “Their governments aren’t trying to bankrupt households so they can’t afford heating, motoring or flying abroad for holidays. There is nothing accidental or natural about what’s going on.”
Indeed not and yet Boris even has the chutzpah to assure us “renewables” will help to lower energy prices – he surely cannot even believe this drivel?
There is of course no such thing as “renewable energy”. The idiotic BBC define it for GCSE science as “Renewable energy is defined as energy that is collected from resources that will never run out or which are replaced by nature in less than a human lifetime. Non-renewable energy is defined as energy collected from resources that cannot be replaced when they are used up, such as oil, natural gas or coal.”
Most so called renewable energy (wind, wave, solar, hydro) comes from nuclear fusion on the sun so clearly long lasting but not renewable. Tidal slows the earth’s rotation, geothermal cools the earth. Oil, natural gas and old wood (coal) can of course all be replaced using the sun’s radiated nuclear fusion to grow them anyway.
The whole concept is totally bogus science/propaganda. Like so much on the BBC. This for example – “Electric car emissions myth ‘busted’ By Roger Harrabin (Catz English Grad.) BBC environment analyst”.
There is no doubt whatsoever that in general keeping your old ICU car almost invariably saves far more CO2 than causing a new EV to be built and then charing it with the UK’s typical electricity mix. Do the sums honestly Roger – keeping your old car or cause a new EV to be built & then consider UK electricity charging mix and charging losses. Plus the need for new batteries after about 8 years! Far cheaper too & this despite paying in far more tax to government. So why are government pushing them exactly? To drive price people off the roads it seems.
April 25, 2022
I think, rather, that events have exposed Putin.
And it has been quite a shock for many.
April 25, 2022
NLH. So was Macron. France has again rejected the UK and US’s self-harming populism. For the second time in five years, France had its own Brexit-Trump moment – and for the second time the voters rejected populism. (John Lichfield; thelocal.fr)
April 26, 2022
We know how it works, Acorn. Just before the second round, the EU authorities dug out an 18-year old embezzlement allegation against Marine le Pen, and pulled all the stops to prevent her getting elected. So blatant.
April 26, 2022
As Macron has been elected by a large majority of voters doesn’t that make him the populist candidate acorn?
April 26, 2022
Er… the populist candidate was Le Pen.
Definition of a populist candidate.
Populism refers to a range of political stances that emphasise the idea of the people and often juxtapose this group against the elite. The term developed in the late 19th century and has been applied to various politicians, parties and movements since that time, often as a pejorative.
April 26, 2022
“Populism” is now a defined term that is not a synonym for “popularity” at all.
It refers to a movement led by one who represents himself/herself as a defender of a constructed concept of “The People”, and who asserts that those not supporting it – even if a majority – cannot claim to be a part of “The People” and are generally “Enemies Of The People”. That is, a simple in-group and out-group divide.
So Macron is not at all a populist
April 26, 2022
So the candidate that is liked by the people and gets elected is not populist.
You people on the left who redefine language like acorn and NHL never cease to amaze me.
April 27, 2022
What about Macron was more popular with the voters than Le Pen was.
You should check your dictionary P2: popular vs. populist vs. populous.
The Oxford Concise has all the definitions on page 1063.
You people in the boonies who do not appear to know your own language never cease to amuse me.
April 27, 2022
Those words all come from the same source hef.
Yet the left have turned populist into a modern pejoritive.
Just to add another barrier to their chosen elite.
PS
Where are the boonies?
April 28, 2022
The word ‘populist’ was introduced in the 19th century by the People’s Party or Populist Party in the USA, a ‘left-wing’ small farmers alliance.
I am sure you will be keen to give us all the details how ‘the Left has turned that word into a modern pejorative’.
I so love learning about History from you.
Where are the ‘boonies’? What about ‘in the wonderful perfect country that forever lives within your muddled head’?
April 26, 2022
Well, nearly 30% of the French abstained and those who did vote had to choose between two very poor candidates. The fact is that many French deeply dislike Macron but voted for him only because of the alternative.
Trump may not be my ideal kind of President but many preferred him to Clinton. Likewise, we now have Biden as US President simply because Americans were so against Trump but who would have voted for Biden given any kind of good alternative? I don’t think Kamala would have been electable either.
It’s not the voters that are the problem, it’s the corrupted political systems that allow self-serving, egotistical candidates to rise to the fore, rather than any people of quality. I voted for Boris rather than Corbyn. I would have voted for Trump rather than Clinton (or Biden for that matter). None would have been happy choices.
April 27, 2022
French presidential elections, 1st round turnout 73.69%, 2nd round 71.99%, so 2nd round abstention 28.01%.
Macron 58.54%, Le Pen 41.46% (2-round election system).
Brexit vote, turnout 72.21%, abstention 27.79%. Yes 51.89%, No 48.21%.
Dec’19 GE: turnout 67.3%, abstention 32.7%, BJ 43.6%, JC 32.1% (FPTP).
To make a long story short:
Macron was elected with 18,779,641 votes out of 48,747,876 potential voters,
Johnson was elected with 13,966,454 votes out of 47,568,611 potential votes.
Reply Only because we did not have a run off between the top two.
April 25, 2022
If it was a shock you’ve had you head up your …. for quite a while.
April 27, 2022
Reply to reply: obviously, that’s why I pointed the different voting systems. Even so it is a fact that the turnout was lower in the British GE than in the French presidential ones.
Which makes IanT’s comment rather … misinformed.
April 25, 2022
Sir J. Seems to forget long term supply contracts at a fixed price.
Good heavens! Why didn’t WE think of that….. oh, government intervention again…
April 25, 2022
Re: Putin, ever since he stood up at a global meeting a few years ago and stated Russia wanted no part of the NWO, the west went back into ‘cold war’ overdrive and now everything is Russia’s fault.
I am not referring to the Ukraine, though the west are also not innocent in this. But appears to be a good excuse to punish Russia with sanctions.
April 25, 2022
UK carrying on giving billions of taxes in weapons to Ukraine while France and Germany sale, yes sale and sold, weapons to Russia! GB news highlighting the Govt. stupidity.
JR, please explain Johnson’s actions and also his stupid comments today about Macron. These two countries are meant to be part of NATO, Germany selling weapons to Russia, dependent on Russia for energy and did not pay 2% of NATO! And Johnson praises France and Macron!
Has Wallace lost the plot like Johnson? He announced another huge shipment of UK taxpayers’ weapons to Ukraine! Why? Are our taxes going to be hiked up further for rank stupidity? Wallace cannot stop dinghy’s reaching our shores!
What has your govt done to get N.Ireland back under our control, laws, regulations without EU checking goods going from one part our country to another?
JR, you are wasted in this socialist green outfit. We would all be better served if you were given a prominent position in another party. Your party is a lost cause.
April 25, 2022
Good morning.
The rise in corporation tax will not hit voters as most voters do not pay it. But other costs, especially food and energy will. Inflation is a creeping vine tax, designed to slowly imperceptibly destroy money and wealth by making things more expensive over time. All the time no one is calling for a reduction in government spending. The rapaciousness of the State shows no ends and will end up eating its own tail if not brought under control. Sadly, we have a PM who has no concept of the value of money and a Chancellor eager to please his master. And the Legislature does not give much hope. Too busy working out their pronounes and pontificating over Partygate.
April 25, 2022
Of course voters will pay the increase in corporation tax (which is being raised from 19% this year to 25% next year), who else will ?, companies will just pass it on in higher prices, lower wage rises, and lower dividends.
April 25, 2022
Only if they carry on spending. If you steward your expenditure you can reduce your contribution. I recommend it. Of course that will exacerbate the recession they are creating. We are heading for stagflation.
April 25, 2022
Corporation tax is a tax on profits. Profits gained after sales. If they were to put the increase on prices then people would either not buy their product or buy less, and so the company would not make less or any profit giving the government less tax. Ergo – The consumer does not pay Corporation tax.
April 25, 2022
“ but who is advising them? Who are they listening to?” Vested interests, crooks or ignorant idiots it seems! Also the dire deluded “committee for climate change”.
April 25, 2022
Indeed it would seem that some climate ‘advice’ to Government may not come from as impartial source as one would wish.
Also just consider, for example, the number of University Departments that rely on ‘climate research’ with the emphasis on Climate Change. If they were ever to admit that the evidence is not as strong as is being claimed then they would be out of a job as the research grants would disappear.
April 25, 2022
We have lunatics running the asylum, believing they can “build back better” by destroying the economy, the country and its people.
April 25, 2022
Coupled with the tax on loans from Mrs May and Mr Hammond giving the ever depleting rental housing stock. So, Housing crisis, energy crisis, inflation crisis, identity crisis, leadership crisis. I think we’re imploding right now. There is no decent political party to save us either.
April 25, 2022
You correctly say:- Taxing jobs through National Insurance rises is wrong. Hiking the company tax rate next year will deter investment. These policies will cripple growth and lead to a bigger budget deficit. You need growth to get the borrowing down. The government also needs better spending discipline .
I would add that these are also manifesto ratting tax and NI increases plus we have frozen allowances too. As to “better spending discipline” the government clearly have none. They spend a fortune on absurdities like net zero, EV subsidies, HS2, extended damaging lockdowns, civil servants doing nothing of value or of negative value, net damaging vaccines for the young and children, failure to control immigration and endless OTT regulation of everything.
On top of this we have the mad expensive renewable intermittent energy agenda – which Boris wrongly assures us will help keep energy prices down. So on this is the man deluded or just lying? Hard to believe Boris can really be so wrong on this issue. Is he just being ordered about by his wife or following the international agenda.
April 25, 2022
UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility costed the government’s “Balanced Net Zero Pathway” and came up with a figure of £1.4tn and the final cost of HS2 estimated at £150bn…..we must be a very rich country (I didn’t know that this government had so much money in the kitty)
April 25, 2022
Nick Timothy today:- “Brexit was supposed to take back control of immigration. But it hasn’t
The new points-based system keeps numbers high. When the public realise, there will be trouble”
Well the government has clearly to have virtually open door legal immigration and this on top of the large illegal one.
He points out – “ Work permits were unlimited, and the definition of “skilled work” was watered down. The shortage-occupation list was extended to allow the recruitment of foreign workers in yet more trades. Employers were no longer compelled to seek workers from the resident population before recruiting from overseas. A salary threshold, supposedly set to ensure only high-skilled immigration, was set at £25,600 and for some workers only £20,400. Foreign students – whatever their qualification – were given the right to stay and work in Britain at the end of their courses.”
April 25, 2022
Deregulation also mean that if businesses want to import labour for whatever purpose, then that freedom for them should be as unfettered as possible.
Did you never think of that?
Do you not understand what Conservatism is?
April 25, 2022
NHL
As a nation we have been importing cheap labour from the EU and elsewhere since 1997 with Blair and Browns open door policy.
Do you not ever think of that?
Do you not understand what Labour’s open door immigration policy is?
April 25, 2022
You’re right P2, it occurred under Labour but mainly after the 2004 EU enlargement ‘to the East’, to the A10 countries.
Before that I do not think it was that much ‘cheap labour’ as it was EU people working for continental banks in the City or various continental academics taking position in UK universities.
I give you that there might also have been a few confiseurs, pâtissiers ou libraires near the Lycée Charles de Gaulle in London.
April 25, 2022
So you are agreeing with me reluctantly or not?
April 26, 2022
Just correcting the date, as it seems your memory failed you. That’s all 😇
April 26, 2022
Cheap Labour was post 2000.
It increased later but immigration boomed with Labour’s policy which started just after they got elected.
April 25, 2022
Well, the Tories have a majority of eighty, and have been in power for twelve years now.
If what you claim were true, then they would evidently rather like it that way.
April 25, 2022
Just as Blair & Brown weren’t real labour, either was Cameron, May & Boris real conservatives
April 25, 2022
Only after 2016 could we begin to start to modify the open border requirements.
Surely you realise this basic point NHL?
April 26, 2022
The UK has never had open borders. One has always had to show a passport at points of entry.
It was required to admit those with ones from the European Union without a visa, no more.
However, the UK’s recent increases in immigration have ALL been from places which are not in and have never been in the European Union, exactly as the Remain campaigns explained would happen.
April 26, 2022
Most people can get a passport NHL
And if they dont have one they just turn up and claim asylum.
Surely you know this?
A new city the size of Southampton needed every year since 2000.
April 25, 2022
NHL
Try not to be so smug.
April 26, 2022
I’m not in the least smug.
I would far rather share my country with others who base their cultures on the values of the European Enlightenment than with sometimes-obscurantists from remote parts of the globe.
Your brexit has – as explained that it would – caused an increase in our doing the latter, and this will continue because of it.
April 26, 2022
Still mixing up Europe with the EU as usual NHL
April 27, 2022
Your inaccurate assertion has no bearing on my post even if it were true.
April 27, 2022
Wrong
You attempted to mix the social and cultural positives of European cultures and histories with the EU
Two very different things.
April 25, 2022
I’ve been saying this from the start. This Government has no intention of cutting immigration. What freedom of movement did to the low paid workers this points system will do to the middle classes.
April 25, 2022
You maybe correct Christine, the immigration system we currently have IS the governments immigration plan
April 25, 2022
Maybe Nick Timothy isn’t in the position of having to fill a vacancy. We all hear about farmers not getting a single UK applicant for work, but that’s not the only occupation to get little traction from the UK jobs market. We advertised for an electronic engineer through UK universities and have received applications from foreign students in every case bar one. I have no objection to employing a foreigner – electronics is a global community, I just lament the UK reluctance for good jobs.
Perhaps the high immigration is caused by businesses stating they don’t need all those social studies graduates.
April 25, 2022
Well, visas and whisky are all we have to offer in any trade deals.
April 25, 2022
I don’t often agree with Mr Timothy but his Telegraph article today is spot on. We do not need uncontrolled immigration with the bar set so very low. I would like to see a withdrawal of any post-study entitlement to residence for students, and a significant increase in the salary threshold.
April 25, 2022
Every time Bozo goes abroad he promises more immigration. Disadvantaged from Rwanda, more visas for India etc.
There is no wish to reduce immigration its all about the NWO.
April 25, 2022
Someone earning just £20,400 pays less than £3,000 in tax and NI PA so how on earth is this going to pay for their share of defence, roads, police, health care, social services etc. – then they might have several children at school too and even bring over elderly parents needed long terms care and health care. Plus they might well get housing and other benefits anyway that exceed this £3,000.
So overall such incoming workers are a huge tax burden on others already in the UK. Lowering living standards overall, undercutting other workers pay and putting more pressure on schools, doctors, housing, roads… not a good plan Sunak & Boris!
April 25, 2022
None EU citizens that come to work here aren’t entitled to a host of benefits that equivalent EU immigrants were such as child credit back to their homes and unemployment, housing benefits and the likes.
If people are coming to work and paying their own way what is the problem. We need to crack down on Brits that refuse to contribute in any way as a priority, retraining in essential low skilled jobs would be a start.
When none working single mums on £24000 pa in benefits (and remember this is net income) say they can’t feed their children on this we have a major problem.
April 25, 2022
a-tracy
Absolutely correct,it’s frightening stuff.
April 25, 2022
Quite. And I see the Care4Calais group (they help economic migrants in Calais) sent a message to its supporters today saying it was “proud and delighted to announce that the Home Secretary has abandoned the controversial Pushbacks policy.” It also added “It is now clear the Pushbacks policy was only ever another example of this government trying to score political points…”.
April 25, 2022
The government is an ass! Everywhere you look, they seem to do the wrong thing for our country.
OK, politicians and governments cannot be experts on everything, but who is advising them? Who are they listening to? Are they listening to people who do NOT have the interests of the UK at heart, or are the government disregarding good advice for some unknown (or known) reason?
This is NOT naivety. This is deliberate damage to our country. I am still convinced that nobody could be as foolish and foolhardy as our government, assuming they are of average intelligence. Why are they risking the future of our country?
This is not a recent event. This has been the pattern since we joined the Common Market. Our country gets knocked back every time in order to help other countries, of which the majority do NOT deserve our generosity. Add in the current trend for knocking the UK (particularly England) and our history at every opportunity, and it appears our own politicians may have decided that we (as a race and country) need to be punished, and possibly wiped out by means of mass immigration.
April 25, 2022
Much truth. My feeling is that across all parties we are in an age of mediocrity fulled by the rise of the professional politician from Uni with PPE to unpaid, working adviser, special adviser, safe seat have been chosen by Central Office as a safe clone.
When elected they are seduced by the Whips stroking their egos and ambition turning most into unquestioning sycophants. We know inbreeding dilutes a gene pool.
My MP, military man, responds promptly and courteously, but imposed by Central Office when our local party wanted Dan Hannan, much more talented but dangerous.
So we got a man used to saluting the flag unquestioning which he now does to Boris and in return was rewarded with a junior ministerial position.
April 25, 2022
I’ll second and fully support your comments Shirley M.
The leaders, the politicals and the remaining elites do intend to destroy the views of anyone who defends and promotes England and any English traditional view and position.
Some of those who defend only do it weakly because they are afraid of speaking bluntly for fear of criticism.
April 25, 2022
Shirley M
Very well said
April 25, 2022
I wouldn’t expect a man who can’t control his own personal finances to be any better at controlling the nation’s economy. The local elections are going to be bloody. Johnson has to go, the second the results are in.
April 25, 2022
SW,
I agree Johnson has to go. However, the local election results may not be the trigger. He may survive those.
April 25, 2022
Name a replacement, of whom the Tories “new voters” have heard, and to whom they can relate in some way or other?
Go on…go on…go on…
April 25, 2022
Steve Baker or John Redwood
April 26, 2022
Go and suggest that in a pub in Hartlepool, Glen.
April 25, 2022
Why are you interested NHL?
Sir Kneel Starmer is your man surely?
April 25, 2022
I agree they are all even worse than Boris and with ever less chance of keeping Labour/SNP out.
April 25, 2022
No one knew who Angela Raynor was, they do now lol.
No one knew who Macron was before he got the serious backing for the first Presidential election.
I doubt most people could name Sir Ed Davey if you showed them a photo.
Everyone knew Jeremy Corbyn’s name and face it didn’t help him did it!
April 25, 2022
Neither you nor Peter2 can, can you?
😆
April 25, 2022
I like Boris
He is an election winner.
A proven success.
That is why there is a concerted campaign by lefty Labour to get him out.
April 26, 2022
NLH that’s because I’m not trying to get rid of Boris, I’d prefer him to have a serious assistant like John Redwood that is experienced enough to see ‘get ya’ opportunities.
I’ve always liked Phillip Hollobone he is underutilized. Penny Mordaunt. Fiona Bruce. Edward Timpson is a very nice man a bit of a Cameron lib-tory but middle-of-the-road at least he has some understanding of business. I could go on.
April 27, 2022
‘I like Boris. He is an election winner’. Great. Some children like a clown, some others are afraid of clowns.
‘A proven success’? May I disagree?
Wouldn’t it be even better if he was a proper ‘manager’ of all things in No.10?
Do you really think only Labour people are unhappy with the cost of living conditions, the various tax increases, the increase in the number of people having to rely on food banks, the various decisions taken on energy, transport, Ukraine, etc …
Are those pink glasses or pink blinkers you are wearing, P2?
April 27, 2022
“Making A Virtue Out Of Necessity”, I think that it’s called.
April 27, 2022
Well hef I realise a positive post for our 80 seat majority PM is an outrage to you.
But we live in a democracy and that is my opinion.
Input all your usual lefty abuse to those who have different opinions to you if you wish.
You vote as you want to.
I will vote as I want to.
Do you get it hef?
April 25, 2022
Hunt? — -but not always good !
April 26, 2022
How about a “one nation” conservative, a centrist who Boris had to demote sideways to reduce her influence on the cabinet.
Penny Mordaunt.
April 26, 2022
Like May or Major?
They didn’t go down too well.
April 25, 2022
Quite so. Recalling how hard it was to rid us of Mrs May, remember she WON one vote of (no)confidence, the only way is for the self-serving PCP membership to feel sufficient fear for their jobs. The right or wrongs or ‘crimes’ of Bunter are irrelevant. The voter needs to mobilise in all the Tory constituencies and make it abundantly clear.
I blame it on the Conservative Campaign HQ for it’s atrocious selection procedure. Bunter may be a colourful character, but suited to high office and national responsibility he is NOT.
April 25, 2022
Peter Wood
I blame it on the Conservative Campaign HQ for its atrocious selection procedure.
Therein lies the real crux of the problem. Not keeping up with the changes we desperately need and electing those that meets the requirements. The new intake across all the parties is neither use nor ornament. At best across Parliament, you have less than 100 who have the experience, and respect, knowledge in the key areas that need addressing. Much the same problem within the Civil Service. Too many wearing blinkers , head down, operating on auto pilot.
April 25, 2022
Google next conservative leader betting odds on oddschecker and look at the top circa 20 people. Do you really think any of these would be better than Boris at the ballet box! It is a very depressing list. What is needed is the old Boris – the climate realist, small government, low tax, pre-Carrie Boris back! Labour/SNP are surely still unelectable – they would tax even more, have even more open door immigration and push expensive renewables even more too.
April 25, 2022
It seems that as soon as they become prime minister they succomb to outside influence. May ‘Brexit means Brexit’and Johnson both.
April 27, 2022
It amuses me that so many of you thought that the banal truism “brexit means brexit” meant anything at all.
April 27, 2022
Well it happened.
Previously it looked like the voters in the referendum would be cheated.
April 25, 2022
Will these prospective PMs have the choice to present themselves to the potential Conservative voters in tutu or leotard?
April 27, 2022
😁
April 25, 2022
When you look around us, and see what’s happening; Johnson is being used as a useful idiot. He has some libertarian views, which is why somebody wants him gone, but doesn’t check anything, or do his homework, and someone suggested he’s not really interested in politics. If you view things through the viewpoint of the ‘conspiracy theory’ of the great reset, a lot makes sense. Destroy the country from within – wokeness, critical race theory etc; create confusion and fear, the pandemic; kill off the middle classes, high regulation to destroy businesses, high fuel costs etc; crash the economy, what we are seeing with B of E and the Treasury; when that’s done and everyone is desperately much poorer- introduce the digital currency to ‘save the day’. There are plenty of historians and others who have researched this subject. What we are seeing is a power struggle. There are some green shoots of hope. But unless more MPs take action to stop the destructive actions of the BofE etc, those wanting to control us all, will win. Unfortunately, they’ve had decades of a head start.
April 26, 2022
Indeed Sharon we need a PM who is not subservient to the globalists intent on ruling the world.
April 25, 2022
We need a decent right of centre party to vote for. NOTA & independents may do well in local election.
April 25, 2022
Profligacy in government spending, so much avoidable fraud and waste…
So what next… more dithering and woke bs then a general election….perm a lolabour, SNP, limp dim coalition and a return of the IMF for fiscal correction and proper austerity .. parity with euro and dollar. Utterly useless goverment policies, treasury and BoE. Its not what we voted for… shambles..
Imho its what you are saying SJR but I’m a more emotive way..
April 25, 2022
I share your concern, SJR, about the actions taken by the Treasury and the BoE, and like you I wonder why Parliament has not debated them. But I am not in a position to table a private member’s bill in the House of Commons, as an MP is.
I wish I could look forward to a vote of no confidence in the government’s economic policies, so ably critiqued by your recent posts on this site.
April 25, 2022
+1
April 25, 2022
Please tell us when a U.K. government displayed spending discipline, my feeling is probably never and in truth how much would be saved anyway. We have known for ever that budgets must be spent so no encouragement to save.
Has any government in recent memory had a current account surplus? Chancellor after Chancellor announces targets/rules etc then changes/pushes the date out as soon as they are not met. The Governor of the BOE had to write to Gordon Brown regularly about the inflation target. Totally meaningless.
As part of your series on the economy/inflation etc, Covid was a massive unforeseen disruption, I wonder what the overall cost to the economy was, what your financial modelling would have looked like without it and now, what the Treasury might do to ‘park it’ separately from the rest of our Gilt overdraft, ie some sort of fiscal sleight of hand to include ‘writing off’ the QE debt.
People who think cost can be simplistically instantly stripped out either operationally or politically from our economy are mistaken but we need a far greater and louder national debate about what might be done.
If the Treasury opened up more we may find that is happening but their ‘we know best’ attitude is neither helpful or democrat.
April 25, 2022
Well under Thatcher/Lawson spending did fall (as a share of GDP) from a peak of about 48% to under 39.2% in 1989-90. Alas we then got John Major and his appalling ERM disaster!
It should of course be more like 20%-25% of GDP were the economy run in the best interest of voters rather than those of the state sector!
April 25, 2022
All I can do is wish you and your fellow Tories good luck. You’ll need it.
April 25, 2022
Why? What is the mechanism at work? Why does the Bank of England creating money out of thin air and buying up government debt in the secondary market cause the price of imported consumer goods or food to go up?
Traditionally inflation was caused by demand being greater than supply. If demand was caused by people borrowing money to spend, inflation was controlled by raising the cost of borrowing – by raising interest rates. Now one senses that prices are increasing because of increasing global energy prices. The war declared on carbon is causing prices to rise.
I would argue that the rampant inflation of the 1970s came to an end because of globalisation and the mechanisation of food production. TVs got cheaper and bigger for years – on the back of cheap labour in the Far East. Not because of high interest rates. We’ve had low inflation with close to zero interest rates for 10 years between 2010 and 2020.
So, why does the Bank of England borrowing money to buy up government debt cause inflation?
April 25, 2022
You’re not alone in your thoughts, JR. Ewan Stewart, Economist has some thoughts and observations on this topic. He has some suggestions as to how things can be put right. Its doubtful whether the Treasury or the B of E will listen.
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/are-we-underestimating-the-inflation-tiger/
April 25, 2022
I repeat: this is the worst Government and Parliament in my lifetime.
April 25, 2022
Agree
April 26, 2022
+1
April 25, 2022
If the views expressed on this blog are widespread, and I think they are, it is a travesty that the MPs have not rid themselves (and us) of this troublesome leader. What does that tell us about the weakness of the typical MP?
April 25, 2022
Well, possible excuses for Conservative MPs:
– wait for the May local elections,
– wait for the full Sue Gray report,
– wait to see exactly how many fines BJ gets,
– wait for the Party Conference,
– wait for the war in Ukraine to be over,
– wait while I try to grow a vertebra, then another one and another one, …
(adapted from A. Rawnsley)
April 25, 2022
….and ‘’its not the right time’’ ….the horror
April 25, 2022
Why is it that so many voters and members, and dear I say the contributors to this blog are so against this current government and Boris…..maybe we just, deep down, don’t trust them as they sold the referendum down the river. After all shouldn’t we be jumping for joy having a government with an 80 seat majority….maybe its just that we don’t recognise this government
April 25, 2022
The Conservative party’s main policy of recent years has been to introduce new barriers to free trade with our closest neighbours. You don’t need to be Einstein to understand why the economy is struggling
Reply The year we left the EU we had the fastest growth in the G7!
April 25, 2022
Reply to reply.
How does Northern Ireland feel about the Brexit we got with your hero Boris, St John. And where are the benefits we can all feel and understand?
April 25, 2022
Before then the UK also experienced the largest fall in volume or “real” gross domestic product (GDP) over Quarter 1 to Quarter 3 2020 of the G7 economies.
April 25, 2022
Quite.
And we know why, don’t we?
April 26, 2022
acorn, quarter 1 to 3 of 2020 was before the first major covid lockdown whilst the world was still sane and operating normally, what are you comparing this to?
April 26, 2022
The other six in the G7? Isn’t it what acorn wrote?
April 27, 2022
Ah, so he is comparing Jan-Mar 2020 with Jan to Mar 2020 of other G7 Countries consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. So he is saying our GDP fall was bigger than Italy which locked down slightly before us and France. I believe the USA locked down after the UK, I’m not sure about Canada.
April 27, 2022
Well responded Tracy.
April 25, 2022
Gary, I thought Boris negotiated a free trade agreement with the EU.
“The EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) is a free trade agreement signed on 30 December 2020, between the European Union (EU), the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom), and the United Kingdom (UK).”
I thought that was why we had to pay a divorce payment for the past six years? I thought it was in the EU’s interest and specifically those large exporting EU nations that are often the same ones responsible for paying the most into the EU to continue free trade with the UK as we imported a lot more from them as they took from us. The UK was also not allowed to sign up trade agreements with other nations until the end of the withdrawal period which only happened just over a year ago, these are now moving on a pace.
April 25, 2022
Oven ready my arse, that turkey was never cooked and the deal should’ve never been signed
April 25, 2022
reply to reply ….. and since?
April 25, 2022
Japan didn’t go in for the IMF’s “ spend, spend, spend” as the U.K. obediently did in 2021. In fact their consumer spending on “durable goods”has been very low for about a decade.
I think also that Japan has a traditional saving culture. ( Housewives bought up American dollars at one time) rather than a borrow and spend one.
Because they have had deflation in the past Japanese companies are very reluctant to pass price hikes on to their customers even if production costs go up. A rise in the price of soy sauce made national news.
Do we need “consumer durables” that actually endure ( and maybe work?).
Apparently Japan has a very low NGPD ( some loopy monetary measure?) which definitely means their inflation will be low.
Reply Japan has also printed much more money and borrowed far more as a proportion of GDP than any other advanced country
April 28, 2022
Nominal GDP is calculated for a given year, Real GDP is used to compared over the years and includes the variations in inflation and exchange rates (important to compare between countries).
Country……….Japan…………..UK……….
Debt………………266%………..104%….. of GDP
Inflation…………1.2%………….6.2%…..as of March 2022
Who own the debt?
Japan: 43-45% by BoJ, 45% by Japanese investors, 10% by foreign investors.
UK: 23% by BoE, 27% by overseas investors, 28% by insurance/pension funds, 17% by banks and other financial institutions, 5% by households (including NS&I).
NB: Not all insurance/pension funds, banks and financial institutions are UK-based and owned.
An actual accurate comparison appears very difficult to be made, but is certainly not helped by some politicians’ one-liners.
A real question hardly addressed is: how much of the UK debt is actual held by UK people (UK people and UK companies)? Or as a now old book (2002) had it: ‘Who owns Britain?’
April 25, 2022
It’s deliberate.
The Government is deliberately implementing policies which will generate a recession and unaffordable oil and gas-based energy now, two years before the next election.
The CON-supporting papers have been full of “the marvels we will do” ….. conservative policies which have been promised for the past 12 years but never get delivered. They are pre-election “red meat” to attract Conservative votes which proves that the CONs know full well what they have to do to win ….. but then refuse to implement when the crosses are on the ballot paper.
And in due course ….. Sunak will cut taxes on the run-up to the next election (providing you vote CON of course) to attract working class conservatively-inclined voters and Johnson will have polished his “Green” credentials and claim to be Building Back Better to attract “middle-class liberal/green” obsessives.
Sir John is wasting his time calling for a sensible economic policy. The only policy being pursued is “how to win the next General Election.”
April 25, 2022
“It’s the war, you know.”
“Don’t mention the war!!”
IMF reckons…( because of the war)…
“Global growth is projected to slow from an estimated 6.1 percent in 2021 to 3.6 percent in 2022 and 2023. This is 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points lower for 2022 and 2023 than projected in January.”
So is that the answer to JR’s queries? The govt has to fit in with the IMF’s dreary forecasts and vile prognostications about the harm the war will do? Just like we had to deliberately slash the economy in order to create the correct covid outcome?
It is like Cinderella’s ugly sisters chopping off toes to fit into the glass slipper! Blood everywhere.
April 25, 2022
Japan did not do a general lock down. It operated a cluster strategy focusing on high density night clubs and gyms.
Japan also has a realistic approach to an ageing population. It is prepared to take the demographic hit making the most of technology to absorb the worker shortfall rather than go through cultural upheaval and uncontrolled growth in population.
China reaped the benefits of being the world’s #1 manufacturer of test kits and PPE. It also has cheap energy and doesn’t give a fig about the environment.
Overall, lockdown kills and so does Greenism but we’re not allowed to say so. The lockdown/greenists (who happen to be the same people) do not allow debate from the other side of the argument. No-one dies of lockdown. No-one dies of hypothermia because of green taxes.
We are reaping the whirlwind of locking down the economy for two years.
April 25, 2022
… we are also reaping the whirlwind of cutting ourselves off from cheap energy.
April 25, 2022
You could always try going after the billions lost to fraud. To quote Lord Agnew in his scathing resignation speech:
The Treasury has little interest in the consequences of fraud to our society.
The Government made “schoolboy errors” by giving loans to over 1,000 companies who were not trading when Covid struck.
When so little effort is put into countering fraud I assume that the Government has no interest in dealing with it.
April 25, 2022
JohnE :
£billions lost to fraud with no attempt to claw back any of the money lost is an insult to all the taxpayers.
I blame the Treasury more than I do the Government except that if the Chancellor does not sack anyone at the Treasury for overseeing this fraud and not attempting to get any money returned then I do not think he is fit to be the Chancellor, let alone become PM.
April 26, 2022
Indeed Richard.
April 25, 2022
So 41.5% of French voters are “FAAAAR right” fascists according to the BBC.
It certainly explains why dinghies aren’t going in the other direction.
(They say the same “FAAAAR right” of Tory back benchers, one of whom was a minister.)
Sir Kier Starmer is the rather more soothing “centre left”.
April 25, 2022
I also noticed during the past weeks reporting that the BBC referred to Macron as ‘Macron’ and Le Pen as ‘Far Right Le Pen’
April 25, 2022
Le Pen is nothing like the British or American far right, and indeed is judged to be economically left wing.
She is a nationalist and has some reactionary social ideas, however, and that is all that seems to matter to too many in the media, I’d say.
April 26, 2022
Who are these important powerful political people on the far right here in the UK NHL?
Come on eh?
April 26, 2022
In the French system you have the whole gamut of parties from far-left to far-right. In the British system, the choice is much more limited and some far-left people might be hiding in plain sight within the Labour Party and similarly some far-right ones within the Conservative Party. In the good olden days of the 1960-70s there was the Conservative Monday Club.
You might want to look who/what they were supporting. It is never too late to learn some history.
April 26, 2022
Nice red herring there heffy.
Re read what I said.
Too much haste as usual.
I asked a simple question of NHL
You as usual joined in with your pal.
But still no answer.
April 25, 2022
Off topic, apparently this chap writing in the Irish Times today learned little about our constitution during his time as ambassador here, as he questions Parliament’s authority to disapply the NI protocol.
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/bobby-mcdonagh-uk-reneging-on-protocol-would-further-unsettle-the-north-1.4860659
“Bobby McDonagh: UK reneging on protocol would further unsettle the North”
He reels off a whole series of potentially more or less disastrous consequences, but when he ends with:
“Finally, most importantly, it would further unsettle the delicate situation in Northern Ireland by moving the real and unavoidable challenges of dealing with the consequences of Brexit back to square one.”
then my reaction is:
“Good, that’s what we need to do, we need to go back and start again at the beginning, and this time avoid the bad mistakes made by both Theresa May and Boris Johnson, for their own differing reasons”.
April 25, 2022
Well Denis, what is your solution, if not the Protocol?
The UK could simply follow all the EU’s rules. The UK has ruled that out.
The EU could not bother with checking goods coming from England. The EU has ruled that out.
We could put a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The US has ruled that out.
What’s left? The Protocol. Nothing else. If you don’t like it, you shouldn’t have voted for Brexit
April 26, 2022
You’ve been told the solution before, at least once:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/03/27/taxes-and-sovereignty/#comment-1308926
Ideally it would be “mutual enforcement”, but as the EU will no doubt once again reject that out of hand we will have to do our part of it unilaterally. As Lord Lilley said:
“… In principle, reciprocity would be desirable. That is, the EU/Republic of Ireland should likewise make it an offense to export goods into Northern Ireland which do not comply with UK regulations and standards. But reciprocity is not essential … ”
April 27, 2022
I’m afraid not, Denis. That “solution” leads unavoidably to a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The US has ruled that out. And claims that “it’s the EU’s fault not ours” may seem funny in Maidenhead but I assure you they will not wash in Washington. This is your Brexit, take responsibility for its consequences
April 27, 2022
So who would erect that hard border?
It has been put into UK law that the UK will not make any changes at the border without the agreement of the Irish government, and the Irish government has said that it will not erect a hard border:
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40044929.html
https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2020/11/17/news/simon-coveney-hopes-controversial-british-government-bill-will-be-irrelevant-when-crunch-week-of-eu-uk-negotiations-ends-2131955/
So who will do it? The leprechauns? Will Biden be telling them not to do it?
April 25, 2022
There isn’t really much to learn about the UK constitution.
Parliament is supreme and that’s about it.
April 26, 2022
Ridiculous comment NHL
Go and get a book on the subject and read it.
April 26, 2022
OK, give an example of any law or convention in the UK which cannot be overturned by an Act Of Parliament then, Peter?
April 26, 2022
Red herring there NHL
You said all the constitutio is that Parliament is supreme.
It’s just a part of the constitution.
You are just demonstrating your lack of depth of knowledge.
April 26, 2022
‘The British Constitution’, Anthony King, O.U.P., 2010.
‘The New British Constitution’, Vernon Bogdanor, Hart Publ., 2009.
There might be a need for a new one when Brexit is done.
April 26, 2022
Hopefully NHL might educate himself.
April 27, 2022
There is no arrangement in the UK which requires anything more than a simple majority vote in Parliament to amend or to annul.
Therefore it does not meet what is agreed and accepted in the rest of the modern democratic world as being constitutional, that is, requiring a constitutional convention to be assembled, a super majority etc. to change it.
You can call it what you like, however.
April 27, 2022
You confuse and misunderstand the concept that Parliament can be supreme with the larger concept of the British Constitution.
Again.
April 26, 2022
Precisely; so when he writes:
“Downing Street has briefed the media that the British government is planning legislation purporting to give the UK the power to renege on the legally-binding Northern Ireland Brexit protocol. The word “purporting” in that sentence is important because, of course, no national parliament has the power to rewrite an international treaty unilaterally.”
he clearly does not understand that.
April 25, 2022
So Denis, I take it that you are in favour of the UK reneging on the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement, a ratified Treaty, as defined by the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties. Don’t be surprised if the EU eventually decides to stop trying to placate the UK and decides it has had enough of UK shenanigans and says, f**k it; tell the UN, the EU is dumping the Treaty, due to hostile non-compliance by the UK with the Treaty.
April 26, 2022
In the likely event that it becomes necessary I am in favour of doing that, and moreover I am in favour of being frank about it and not trying to wriggle out of the reality by a false citation of Article 16 as permitting us to do it. But first I would demonstrate a workable and superior alternative method to achieve the ostensible principle objective of the protocol, namely the protection of the EU Single Market from the risk of unacceptable goods being carried across the open land border into the Irish Republic. Once it had been shown that with that alternative in place it would have no material, practical, detrimental effect on the EU if EU mandated checks on goods entering Northern Ireland were abandoned, and EU checks on local businesses producing goods were also stopped, then I would ask Parliament to disapply the relevant parts of the protocol, with or without the agreement of the EU.
But then I have said all of this before, repeatedly, including in a letter published in the Belfast News Letter on April 6, headed “Boris Johnson did not deliver on plan to protect EU market and sort out protocol”:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/04/06/the-latest-co2-report/#comment-1310918
I expect some Tory MPs now understand it, but they do not want to go against Boris Johnson.
April 26, 2022
+1
April 25, 2022
I reckon, looking over the history of the Industrial revolution, that the price of energy is fundamental to our living standard. Hence my being aghast at Johnson’s Net Zero policy – or is really his spouse’s??
So to get the economy on the move again we need cheap, reliable, energy – which is what Coal brought us in the 19th Century, and intermittent wind will never do.
April 25, 2022
Don’t forget the cheap shale gas to get the economy going
April 26, 2022
+1
April 25, 2022
The Treasury and BEIS are following the Putin/Xi plan to cripple the West’s economy using their useful idiots to legislate the CCA and implement a technically impossible Net Zero CO2 target by 2050, consequently making the West dependent upon Russia and China for goods, energy and minerals.
I would recommend everyone to check the facts on catastrophic global warming themselves and not simply accept what they hear from the BBC and XR, neither of whom have anything to say about CO2 emissions in Russia or China and are opposed to nuclear which is the only form of energy which can provide independent, affordable, reliable power in the quantities we need to remain a first world country.
In the short term we need to ditch the CCA/Net Zero, go back to using oil, gas and even coal for our power – all of which can be far cleaner than before – and start to build back our manufacturing.
April 25, 2022
Happy ANZAC day to all our colonial friends down under (sadly no longer reported upon by the BBC)
April 26, 2022
+1
April 25, 2022
The socialist government is putting the rabbit in the hat so it gets credit for getting back out again at election time.
We are not that stupid.
Messing with the economy in this way is irresponsible.
April 25, 2022
The Govt is raking in tax upon tax upon tax. Especially out of car drivers trying to get to work. (I refuse to use the term ‘motorist’ which makes out this is some type of hobby.)
For example.
Son has to get around different departments as a junior doctor. So we bought him a car and transferred the logbook to him. Unknown to us the rules have changed and the tax we paid didn’t go with the car. A genuine mistake. We get a cheque back from the DVLA this morning and find out that the boy is untaxed. I’ve gone online and taxed it pronto.
So.
£39 is what we’ve lost (having only been taxed one month !!!) and to top it all off the tax starts on the first of this month. This is state licensed theft. And we’re hoping and praying that the lad doesn’t get criminalised for this as well.
What on earth was wrong with the old system ? Rather like the parking system- what problem is it causing if I give a parking receipt to a mate that has time left on it that I’ve already paid for ?
April 25, 2022
Redwood: “Last year economic policy was expansion minded. ”
Yea, that’s your first error, expanding the money supply ( especially after the 2020 printing mania ) doesn’t expand the economy.
Redwood: “The Bank of England carried on printing lots of money and kept interest rates around zero. ”
Honestly, you people are insane*. Printing ‘lots of money’, reduces the value of the currency already in circulation – BECAUSE THE ECONOMY IS ALREADY SHRINKING – making the vast majority of people in the economy poorer.
Printing currency is never a solution to a recession – it only serves those with first access to the funds – Banks, government.
*The definition of insane is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different outcome
April 25, 2022
This is a form of off-topic comment but our entire economy fails because we are too keen to import products as if any shortage here can always, without consequence, be resolved by importing.
And my off-topic concerns the ready importation and happy use of the word hike – it’s lazy to adopt it and maybe it’s done to show how ‘modern’ the author or journalist is.
We do have ‘rise’ or ‘raise’ or ‘increase’ or even ‘jump’ – what’s wrong with English english language?
April 26, 2022
+1
April 25, 2022
The collapse of Bulb, that cost taxpayers £2 billion, came just four months after the Prime Minister visited its London offices declaring the company was “leading the way in the renewables revolution”
We did to change track pdq
April 25, 2022
The next generation sure has some massive taxes to pay !
Net zero (£trillions by 2050)
Reparations to the slave descendants (?£billions)
Compensation to the ex-colonies (?£billions)
Financial support to poorer nations to reduce carbon emissions (currently running at c. £1bn p.a. but needs ramping up hugely)
Accepting millions of refugees on demand (?£billions)
Increasing NHS and Care costs (many billions extra needed to provide an acceptable service)
Increased Defence budget in response to Russia/E. Europe situation (tens of billions p.a.)
Paying down the national debt
Paying increasing state pensions (I’m sure someone will tell us how many £bn)
Paying “unfunded” state sector defined benefit pensions (ditto)
That’s just off the top of my head, I’m sure there is more. Best thing will be to pay all income to the government and they give us £10 a week pocket money.
April 26, 2022
Clearly we have a mostly incompetent government and civil service. Our host is one of a too few exceptions among them.
It seems that we will be rid of Boris soon but we need a replacement who puts our country and its people first and gives the globalists who seek control the Agincourt salute.
April 26, 2022
I don’t think we have to try, the elephant is is the room, the UK is at war with Russia to support a corrupt Ukraine Government in Kiev. We may not like Putin/the current Russia system, but this all started with Kiev trying to remove Russian culture from Ukraine and the West did not object. No support for the Minsk agreement. At least the French and Germans tried.
We are giving, free of charge, Ukraine £billions in weapons and actual support by our armed forces. The Conservative Government is so very proud to do so with no thought for a peaceful resolution and more importantly the immediate and long term impact on UK citizens of their war promoting actions
The Conservative Government just does not care about us.
Unfortunately not many current Politicians do. Those that do are not in power to make any impact.
The US and UK want to destroy Russia under the cloak of NATO/EU supporting “Democracy” let’s not hid from this so obvious fact.
The US and UK have made no effort what so ever to bring about peace.
It is very telling that Kev will not allow a referendum in Donbass and Crimea to let the people vote if they want to be part of Ukraine, Independent, or part of Russia.
So much for Western Democracy.