Strange numbers and wrong forecasts

The ONS published revised figures for the debt and deficit in the year to March 2022. Compared to the figures released as recently as the Spring Statement they now think borrowing last year was £20bn higher than they thought in March, though still massively down on the budget 2021 forecast. They also warn us that the figures will be subject to future revision and that could be material. As the cash requirement figures they published are so much lower than the deficit figures it seems likely the deficit will be revised down again before we are finalised with the history.

Revenues were well up on the original 2021 forecasts and were even up on the recent Spring Statement forecasts. it leads me to ask again how can the Treasury be so sure they needed an extra £12bn from a National Insurance rise when the revenues increased last year by several times that amount over their forecast? And how come they can afford to withgo a portion of the £12bn now they have raised the threshold for paying National Insurance?

The latest figures tell us that there has been a large rise in debt interest, to £69.9bn.  This figure combines genuine cash payments of interest on borrowings, with more complex non cash items relating to index linked borrowings repayable often in many years time.

Debt interest remains low relative to GDP and spending thanks to low interest rates . Much of the borrowing is long term, locking in these favourable low interest rates for the full term of the loans.

The fact that the Bank of England owns a large portion of the bonds is also helpful as a 100% owned servant of the state. The Treasury pays interest to the Bank on these loans, but can get a dividend back from the extra money  the Bank receives as a result.

 

The Treasury now adds the increase in repayment value of indexed gilts each time inflation numbers emerge to the debt interest figure. This is not a bill the state has to pay month by month as inflation rises. As they confess it is a non cash item.

The extra cost of the debt is only passed on to the bond owner on maturity of the bond. At this point the state will simply refinance it, so there is never an immediate cash cost that needs financing out of tax revenue. Some of these bonds are  not repayable for many years.

Normal bonds do incur cash costs with the payment of interest and these are properly considered a running cost to the state.

 

Last year  out of the total cost of debt interest attributed by the Treasury of £69.9bn, £34.7bn was indexation. The true cash cost of the debt was £35.2bn, around half the stated figure.

 

110 Comments

  1. Denis Cooper
    April 27, 2022

    Just a reminder that Lord Frost will be giving a speech on the NI protocol later today:

    https://policyexchange.org.uk/pxevents/the-northern-ireland-protocol-how-we-got-here-and-what-should-happen-now-keynote-speech-by-rt-hon-lord-frost-of-allenton-cmg/

    “The Northern Ireland Protocol: how we got here, and what should happen now?”

    Keynote speech by Rt Hon Lord Frost of Allenton CMG.

    Tuesday, 27 April, 2022 12:30 – 13:30

    1. Ian Wragg
      April 27, 2022

      Frost understands that the protocol us unacceptable to any sovereign state.
      May got us in to this position but Bozo could have cancelled it immediately after thr GE.
      It has to go.

      1. Ian Wragg
        April 27, 2022

        Oh, and the NI increase is nothing to do with the NHS, it’s just following WEF policy of transferring wealth.

        1. Ian Wragg
          April 27, 2022

          Just an energy update, wind is today providing 1.68gw of power. Gas and nuclear ate providing 70% of demand.
          Saudi Arabia of wind generation, I don’t think so.

          1. glen cullen
            April 27, 2022

            Spot on Ian…and a damming indictment on this government

          2. Fedupsoutherner
            April 27, 2022

            Ian. Good post.

      2. Lifelogic
        April 27, 2022

        +1

      3. DavidJ
        April 27, 2022

        +1

    2. Lifelogic
      April 27, 2022

      +1

      Leader in the Telegraph today – The real cost of living solution is tax cuts – well yes but you can only really do this for long if they stop pissing money down the drain on bloated government “working” from home, HS2, soft loans for pointless degrees, EV subsidies, renewable subsidies, smart meters… they show zero interest in tackling such obvious blatantly insane waste.

      A bonfire of red tape can go a long way too but no interest in this either it seems, quite the reverse in fact with making tax digital, endless attacks on landlords and the self employed especially.

    3. Hope
      April 27, 2022

      You are Truly wasted JR.

      There is also the little point of £11.8 billion stolen from the Treasury in school boy error frauds that Lord Agnew resigned over. Furlough given to people without identity checks and not living in the country! Sunak refused the offer to investigate! No worries to Johnson and his party they increase taxes through NI by £12 billion! Please explain if incorrect JR.

      1. a-tracy
        April 27, 2022

        Hope, I thought anyone stealing furlough money was fake employers, fraudsters, they had to have paye operational and the employee had to have been working for the company before March 2020. It was for the PAYE business to do the checks on employee eligibility any mistakes can be charged back to the PAYE business. The treasury crawled all over the legitimate businesses, and the accountants and auditors checked every entry. Where did you read furlough was given to employees direct without identity checks not living in the UK?

        1. Hope
          April 28, 2022

          House of Commons library comes up with figure. Sunak now announces he will investigate. Go argue with Sunak.

          1. a-tracy
            April 29, 2022

            I’m not arguing Hope I was going to look up your information when you tell me where you read it.

    4. Nottingham Lad Himself
      April 27, 2022

      Thanks, I must remember to forget.

    5. Mark Thomas
      April 27, 2022

      Wednesday, 27 April

    6. Peter Parsons
      April 27, 2022

      Alternatively titled “What I got wrong”?

    7. Mickey Taking
      April 27, 2022

      wrong side of the Time Zone?

  2. Mark B
    April 27, 2022

    Good morning.

    Question.

    If there was not so much debt, even to ourselves, would we be able to finance tax cuts ? If so, then debt is bad as the govenment seeks to use taxation and inflation to off load its debt and rampant spending onto us. For all those that have been prudent and work we are being punished.

    1. Lifelogic
      April 27, 2022

      Tax cuts can easily be financed by cutting the vast government waste. Indeed many tax cuts and red tape cuts are more than self financing as they grow the economy and the tax base. But it seems the Sunak agenda is to save promises of tax cuts until just before the next election (in about 2+ years) – doubtless to be ratted on post the election again as they did this time – this either by the manifesto ratting Sunak or by an appalling Starmer/SNP coalition.

      1. DavidJ
        April 27, 2022

        Indeed LL; one might think that their primary aim is to squander for no return.

    2. Nigl
      April 27, 2022

      Good question. I would add when does this/any government aim to get current account spending in balance?

      I get the impression from our host, who thinks borrowing costs are irrelevant, that we borrow for ever.

      Maybe we do. If so, zero incentive to eliminate waste, any saving will be spaffed elsewhere or raise productivity/efficiency.

      I see Sunak being battered to reduce tax, a typically panicky politicians response when they signed it off in the first place allowing spendthrift Boris free rein. So put more money back into an economy where inflation is rife?

      A Tory government would have reduced government spending to do it so a net zero result. But then this is not a Tory government.

      And as an example Liz Truss, put in the shade by Boris ‘taking over’ on Ukraine, sees an opportunity to raise her profile by calling for more military spending.

      Maybe Ms Truss would read Meg Hillers report on the massive waste and inefficiency in MOD procurement and demand it improves. so giving us the weapons she thinks we need from the existing budget, rather than even more, a metaphor for ‘money down the drain’ across HMG departments.

      1. Hope
        April 28, 2022

        Nige,
        We had this debate and promises of balanced structural deficit 12 years ago. Socialist Tories abandoned 3 election promises as their central economic plank. Johnson’s first budget 11 days before his lock down was tax piss and waste.

        JR’s eminently sensible economic views bear no resemblance whatsoever to his left wing party’s policy.

    3. turboterrier
      April 27, 2022

      Mark B
      The chorus of an old rugby song comes to mind.
      It’s the same the whole world over.
      It’s the poor what gets the blame.
      It’s the rich that gets the pleasure.
      And it’s always been the same.

      In the grand scheme of things nothing much ever changes.

    4. PeteB
      April 27, 2022

      Mark,

      Sir J is being selective in his stats. Doesn’t mention last year’s borrowings of c£150bn were the third highest on record or that over the last 60 years governments have only managed to run a surplus in a handful of years.

      The UK, like most countries, is in debt up to it’s eyeballs. The current inflation is welcomed by the Treasury as a means of bringing down debt as a % GDP.

      If UK Government were a business it would have failed (economically) decades ago.

      1. Mickey Taking
        April 27, 2022

        ‘If UK Government were a business’ we’d be shouting ‘sack the hopeless auditor!’.

        1. Mark B
          April 28, 2022

          +1

    5. Ed M
      April 27, 2022

      How much tax we pay or don’t pay is a red herring compared to how we restore our cultural values to our country. Cultural values such as Work Ethic, Family Values (including relying on family not state in hard times), Taking Responsibility for oneself, Spirit of Entrepreneurship, Patriotism etc ..
      Tax was an issue during the 70’s. But not now (not really). Lots of countries have strong economies with relatively high taxation Sweden, for example.
      We over-egg the importance of politics and economic prosperity in trying to bring about a strong and stable economy. But it’s ultimately down to cultural values. And once we can restore cultural values more (through Church / Arts / Media / Education etc) then we can get taxation down for all to 20% / 25% or something.
      Conservatism now has to move more into being a cultural thing a political one (although politics still important of course). A bit more actually as people such as Edmund Burke envisaged Conservatism. We need to return more to our traditional base.

      1. Ed M
        April 27, 2022

        ‘We over-egg the importance of politics and economic prosperity ‘ – ‘economic policy’ I meant.

  3. DOM
    April 27, 2022

    To think these halfwits are running the nation’s public finances. They act politically. They act without due regard for process. They act outside of the civil law. They act in a manner that is detrimental and destructive to the fiscal foundations on which the UK is built

    The Treasury is a pro-EU insider and the B of E is now a mere facilitator of currency devaluation

    The real question is why this PM , who has ultimate authority, hasn’t decided to impose himself on this matter? He’s too busy slandering Musk while pandering to Obama and Harris.

    This is what Scott Morrison said recently, ‘Free speech doesn’t create jobs’. The dangerous and sinister intent in that statement cannot be underestimated but I fear it’s a view held by most vile Western leaders who now adhere to a form of politics that under Thatcher and Reagan would have been a reason for war

    1. BOF
      April 27, 2022

      Correct DOM.
      As Scomo does not believe in freedom of speech, witness Bozo here in the UK. Online Harms Bill that says ‘legal but harmful’!

  4. Lifelogic
    April 27, 2022

    So given the cost of living crisis is Boris going to ditch net zero and expensive unreliable energy or is he going to stick to his lie/falsehood that “subsidised unreliable renewables and the large green levies on bills help lower energy costs” sure they do Boris! Some other suggestions – MOTs and similar only every 4 years and other such sensible deregulation. It is still clearly an offence to drive an unsafe car. Stop the FCA’s one size fits all 39% rip off personal overdraft rates given to us by Andrew Bailey while he was at the FCA.

  5. Sea_Warrior
    April 27, 2022

    ‘Debt interest remains low relative to GDP …’ Maybe, but it’s still a ton of money. Western politicians need to stop spending money they don’t have on dubious ‘investments’ and operating expenses dressed-up as ‘investments’.

  6. Walt
    April 27, 2022

    The ONS lost its moral compass about 10 years ago, with the departure of Dame Jil Matheson as National Statistician. They have become untrustworthy.

  7. Mike Wilson
    April 27, 2022

    All sounds like smoke and mirrors to me.

  8. Everhopeful
    April 27, 2022

    Decent interest on savings were life savers for pensioners.
    All gone now thanks to govt.
    Many pensions gone too ditto.
    Govt. going to do a Bishop Hatto is it?
    With the “starving poor”.

    1. Everhopeful
      April 27, 2022

      **interest rates

  9. Everhopeful
    April 27, 2022

    Does the govt. have the faintest scooby how to go about governing or adding up?
    Or do they suffer from the present day malaise of thinking that anything is good enough as long as it has an incredibly stupid sound bite? ( Fostered over many years by lunatic liberals).

    Snap election planned to catch the sheep unaware it is rumoured!

  10. alan jutson
    April 27, 2022

    Seems to me the whole government machine and what feeds it is out of control and unfit for purpose.
    The population are just treated as lambs who can be fleeced every year to pay for it all, but even that is not enough, because borrowing and debt still grows.
    In return all we get are failing services, with almost every department failing in its duty to perform, to even the most basic of standards.

    1. a-tracy
      April 28, 2022

      alan, well some services aren’t failing by a neighbouring conservative council (who always get panned for being uncaring!) they are spending a quarter of a million pounds per week to get around 850 children to school. Whether that is wise value for money and experienced logistics is another question.

  11. Lifelogic
    April 27, 2022

    I read that – 100% of Covid-19 Pfizer Vaccine Deaths were caused by just 5% of the batches produced according to official Government data (Brian Pickford – peckford42)

    Clearly this is not remotely statistically consistent with these deaths being merely coincidental deaths (but shortly after these vaccination). Can we find out if we too had these faulty batches and how many other non fatal injuries were perhaps caused by these batches?

    1. Lifelogic
      April 27, 2022

      Surely Pfizer or Government should have informed all the people who were given these batches?

    2. R.Grange
      April 27, 2022

      I don’t think ‘we’ will find out, LL. For public health reasons it ought to be essential for the medical products regulator to investigate what it going on, and perhaps it is doing that. But a government that pushed these vaccines on people is not going to be keen to admit the scale and seriousness of their adverse effects. Once upon a time the media would have shown interest and concern, as they did with the Pandemrix vaccine 12 years ago. No chance now, I fear.

  12. Donna
    April 27, 2022

    Lies, damned lies and statistics.

    What we DO know for certain is that, miraculously, the economy will have recovered sufficiently from the tax, borrow, print and squander lunacy of the past few years for Sunak to offer us a small bribe with our own money at the Budget Statement before the next General Election …. because he’s already told us that’s the plan.

    But only if we vote to be CONned again.

  13. Bryan Harris
    April 27, 2022

    THE ROCKEFELLERS, WORLD BANK, IMF AND WEF ALL WARN OF A “MASSIVE GLOBAL FOOD CRISIS”

    Rockefeller Foundation President Rajiv Shah called for debt relief and emergency aid to poorer nations to avert a “massive, immediate food crisis”

    The world faces a “human catastrophe” from a food crisis, World Bank president David Malpass told the BBC late last week: record rises in food prices will push hundreds of millions of people into poverty and lower nutrition.

    The IMF have also warned, in strong terms, about the impending global food crisis “if the world leaders do not act fast”.

    World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab told the World Government Summit last month, “History is truly at a turning point,” with economic instability, conflict between major global powers, and the coming fourth industrial revolution.

    In a short address delivered virtually to the World Government Summit in Dubai in March, Schwab said there will be systemic and structural changes, and that global supply chains, energy, and food systems will be deeply affected.

    Again, they are broadcasting their intentions.

    Just what is HMG doing to avert this coming crisis?   AWHY are we STILL not growing more of our own food?

    1. DavidJ
      April 27, 2022

      +1

    2. Shirley M
      April 27, 2022

      Because the government wants us more reliant on the EU for food to give them more blackmailing power so Boris has an excuse to give them whatever they want, and Boris wants every inch of UK land for different imports …. ie. people. Any people will do! Boris has always been pro-immigration and he doesn’t care about the consequences on the country or the people (both already here and yet to arrive).

      It’s good odds Boris will be announcing an amnesty for illegal immigrants pretty soon. He won’t want to lose the ones he has already lured in with his 4* hotels, all services laid on, spending and other perks.

    3. Nottingham Lad Himself
      April 28, 2022

      Do none of you know what a free market is?

  14. alan jutson
    April 27, 2022

    Are all these civil servants “working from home” still getting paid the London weighting allowance JR ?

    1. John C.
      April 27, 2022

      Alan, Answer came there none. You can guess, therefore, what is going on.

    2. John Hatfield
      April 27, 2022

      The enemy within.

    3. Wonky Moral Compass
      April 27, 2022

      The one I know certainly is. Cushty.

  15. Brian Tomkinson
    April 27, 2022

    Given the manipulation of statistics in relation to Covid during the last 2 years, who can have any confidence or trust in any statistics emanating from government or its agencies?

  16. George Brooks.
    April 27, 2022

    Having read your blog twice one can imagine the conversation between the Treasury and their masters, the ardent Westminster Remainers.

    ”Good morning, what would you like the figures to project and how much grief would you like to inflict on the government today?”

    I think we are being fed a pack of lies.

  17. formula57
    April 27, 2022

    So you have shown that H.M.Treasury cannot forecast economic performance nor, even a month ahead, its own accounts but when it comes to slavish obedience to arbitrary rules set by the Evil Empire, it is very good indeed.

    Why do we not now privatize the arse off it?

    1. SM
      April 27, 2022

      A thoughtful suggestion, f57 – perhaps the ONS could also be abolished at the same time, since it appears even more at sea with figures and major finances than me [and that’s saying something!].

    2. Mickey Taking
      April 27, 2022

      or close it and appoint 3 or 4 of the like of Sir John – that would do nicely.

  18. George Brooks.
    April 27, 2022

    Off topic

    It is a well known fact that you can’t believe everything you read in the papers and I am surprised the way that the broadcast media have accepted the Sunday Mail’s Raynor story and are now making sure it continues to run.

    I reckon it arose out of a conversation between two aging bored old hacks in the press gallery who then decided to blame it on ”an unnamed Conservative MP” to give the story legs (sorry for the pun) and set the Whips off on a time-wasting hunt.

  19. Lifelogic
    April 27, 2022

    Boris last night with Tom Newton-Dunne Talk TV interview “I am the custodian of the public purse” well rather an appalling piss down the drain one alas. And once again we get “we get the big things right” well no the extended lockdowns was wrong, the vast manifesto ratting tax increases were wrong, net zero is wrong, HS2 is wrong, your energy policy is insane, vaccinating children and the young is wrong…

    He even claimed to be cutting council taxes! No sensible suggestions on the cost of living crisis he, Sunak and his mad energy policies have created. He was however right about the state sector’s “post covid manana culture though” though they often had this pre Covid too. Took me 40 mins holding just to speak to HMRC yesterday.

    1. Hope
      April 27, 2022

      LL,

      A mania he created, a covid and financial mess he created and now personal financial mess imposed on the nation never seen in recent history before. He must go. If he opens his mouth he is lying.

    2. DavidJ
      April 27, 2022

      +1

    3. Donna
      April 27, 2022

      I can’t think of a single thing he’s done right. Disastrous Not-a-Conservative-Government.

  20. Bryan Harris
    April 27, 2022

    Last year out of the total cost of debt interest attributed by the Treasury of £69.9bn, £34.7bn was indexation. The true cash cost of the debt was £35.2bn, around half the stated figure.

    This brings up several questions, summarised by WHY

    What on Earth is going on that we cannot get honest figures from the government on our finances, as well as so many other things — Is this a continuation of the Nudgers work to keep us all in fear, for one reason or another?

    Or is this just part of the social re-engineering project to change our perspectives and understanding of life?

  21. oldwulf
    April 27, 2022

    Apparently, HM Treasury has been providing dodgy forecasts for many years.

    For example, in 1976 the UK went cap in hand to the IMF for a loan.

    Wikipedia’s cooment on this is:
    “Only half of the loan was actually drawn by the UK government and it was repaid by 4 May 1979. Denis Healey, the Chancellor of the Exchequer at the time, went on to state that the main reason the loan had to be requested was that public sector borrowing requirement figures provided by the treasury were grossly overstated”

    Wikipedia then goes on to say:
    “The IMF loan meant that the United Kingdom’s economy could be stabilised whilst drastic budget cuts were implemented. Despite the security provided by the loan, the Labour Party had already begun separating into social democrat and left-wing camps, causing bitter rows inside the party and with the unions. Some believe this may have contributed significantly to Margaret Thatcher’s 1979 Conservative victory.”

    Maybe I have two questions:
    1. What is the point of HM Treasury if its forecasts are regularly wrong ?
    2. What can the current “Conservative” Government learn from history ?

    1. miami.mode
      April 27, 2022

      oldwulf, they could learn that after the Conservative Anthony Barber boom in the early 1970s Labour gained power in 1974 and managed to get inflation up to 25% at one point until they were kicked out in 1979 for 18 years. Inflation is a deadly disease that ruins the lives of millions and the current population is in for an almighty shock.

      You just have to love the comment “Labour leader Harold Wilson remarked that Barber’s appointment was the first time he realised that Heath had a sense of humour”.

      1. miami.mode
        April 27, 2022

        PS interesting little read is ruffer.co.uk ‘The Barber Boom’ which also points to the quadrupling of oil prices in late 1973 which had a disastrous effect, plus ça change! Boris has until October before the cold weather sets in to get more UK oil and gas by whatever means so that we can have a reliable supply and stable prices.

  22. No Longer Anonymous
    April 27, 2022

    To justify high tax, of course. Especially on driving to work whilst being called the now pejorative “motorist” (which sounds like being some sort of selfish “hobbyist”.)

    We did better than Norman Tebbit told us to. We didn’t just get bikes to find work, we took on the burden of running cars at a time that railways were being run down and government geared society around them.

  23. squidgame
    April 27, 2022

    Paul Lewis ( who I like ) in Telegraph today suggests adding 1K to Winter Fuel Payment.
    How about raising Pension Credit threshold by 1K instead.

    1. Mickey Taking
      April 27, 2022

      good idea, and also increase Income Tax allowance threshold. Not everybody hit badly is a pensioner.

  24. Emmanuel
    April 27, 2022

    Some guy called Gold the other day in Mail completely missed the point re leaseholders being shafted.
    Yes, people who have just bought must rely on good solicitors re forthcoming works.
    The problem is with existing leaseholders having service charges suddenly tripled and being landed with HUGE modernisation bills..
    Try again Gold.

  25. James1
    April 27, 2022

    The best thing the government could do initially to help the economy would be to stop wrecking it. Why can they not see that the public sector needs to be hugely downsized, taxes reduced and simplified, and businesses set free to frack, mine and drill.

    1. glen cullen
      April 27, 2022

      Agree – This government should stop intervening in every facet of our life, just let market force dictate what people want and allow freedom of choice & competition to flourish …..remember those conservative ideals

      1. Mickey Taking
        April 28, 2022

        no I don’t remember those ideals -please explain what they were?

    2. Lifelogic
      April 27, 2022

      UK’s healthcare is ranked as the second worst in a cohort of 19 similar countries by Civitas! Could this be “our NHS” the claimed envy of the World! This even before Covid. Then we have the high court saying dumping Covid patients into care homes (obviously not such a great plan) was also illegal!

      In 2019 the UK ranked 17th out of 19 comparable countries for life expectancy.
      For strokes and heart attacks the UK has the worst survival rates of comparable countries
      Across 5 different types of cancer measured by the OECD the NHS comes 16th out of 18 comparable countries.
      For treatable diseases the UK is second to bottom – 15th out of 16. If we matched the average of other countries, we would save over 6,500 lives every year or 17 a day.

    3. agricola
      April 27, 2022

      When government is midst a religious green frenzy they are unlikely to respond.

      1. glen cullen
        April 27, 2022

        Whenever Boris is in front of a camera he just has to mention ‘wind-farms’…its an obsession

        1. Mickey Taking
          April 28, 2022

          Next holiday he and Carrie are visiting off-shore windfarms followed by some of the latest clean green arm-wavers in most beautiful countryside. You heard it here first!

          1. glen cullen
            April 28, 2022

            Like train spotters, I wonder if there’s a group of windfarm spotters

    4. DavidJ
      April 27, 2022

      Indeed James.

  26. Original Richard
    April 27, 2022

    “Strange numbers and wrong forecasts” can be equally applied to the CCA/Net Zero.

    The global warming forecasts are wildly inaccurately high and the PM’s claim that renewable energy has helped to reduce bills when green levies are now running at £11bn/year is wrong.

    The push by the Left to close down Europe’s fossil fuel production capacity making it dependent upon Russia for its energy and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not a coincidence.

    1. Hat man
      April 27, 2022

      Original Richard – Established left-wing parties in most European countries seem to me to be happy to make Europe dependent in the short-to-medium term on American liquid natural gas. Certainly not on Russia. But as you say, the longer-term aim of many on the Left is to promote the Green agenda, whatever disastrous consequences that has for their ordinary working-class supporters.

      I don’t think the clowns in power in Whitehall would survive politically for very long, were the opposition not so clueless.

    2. Nottingham Lad Himself
      April 27, 2022

      As I say further on, why would “the Left” want to make themselves dependent upon an extreme Russian Conservative and nationalist?

      1. Mickey Taking
        April 27, 2022

        destruction of the way of life in the UK?

        1. Nottingham Lad Himself
          April 28, 2022

          You do yourself and your credibility no favours with this delusional, paranoid, groundless nonsense.

          It is the Right, e.g. Bannon, Trump, Farage etc. who have been at least apologists, but often fulsome in their praise for Putin.

    3. Mickey Taking
      April 27, 2022

      and once dependent Russia will start closing down energy supply.

    4. Narrow Shoulders
      April 27, 2022

      And with Poland and Bulgaria having their gas cut off today the demand (and thus) price of gas supplied from elsewhere is going to increase.

      The only speedy answer to this is more supply.

    5. DavidJ
      April 27, 2022

      +1

  27. Nottingham Lad Himself
    April 27, 2022

    Why would “the Left” want to make themselves dependent upon an extreme Russian Conservative and nationalist?

    1. Peter2
      April 27, 2022

      Perhaps the revolutionary left see it as a way of destabilising the Western democracies and creating chaos and division.

      Who knows
      Why not ask the people involved?

      1. Nottingham Lad Himself
        April 28, 2022

        You’d get a better answer from the likes of Steve Bannon, Peter, if he ever told the truth, don’t you think?

        So who are “the revolutionary Left”, then?

        It wasn’t they who stormed the Capitol, was it?

        1. Peter2
          April 28, 2022

          Give us names then NHL
          More nonsense about the UK hard right from you.

  28. glen cullen
    April 27, 2022

    Talking about strange numbers I still can’t get my head around the massive sum of £37bn we’ve paid for ‘track & trace’….and continue to pay. A bit like our continued payments to the EU, once you start paying its hard to stop

    1. Mickey Taking
      April 27, 2022

      Its a VERY large Direct Debit on us, but when we try to contact the Bank to stop it – they ignore us all the while the recipient keeps spending our money!

  29. Atlas
    April 27, 2022

    Sir John,

    Is part of the problem that the Treasury Economic model cannot handle non-equilibrium situations well?

  30. agricola
    April 27, 2022

    Meanwhile it is reported that taxpayers in the UK are paying 62.1% of their earnings to HMRC. This is unsustainable morally and politically. Inciddntally the remaining 37.9% is then subject to tax ever time you decide to use it. Welcome aboard the UK on course for disaster.

  31. Everhopeful
    April 27, 2022

    If I’ve got this right the £ don’t seem to be doing too well.
    Whereas the rouble seems to be going from strength to strength.
    Perhaps Johnson should annoy some other country into taking out sanctions against the U.K.?

  32. glen cullen
    April 27, 2022

    At PMQs today Boris proclaimed a new strap-line ‘’Clean Green Windfarms’’….says it all about this government…..blue on the outside and green on the inside
    Does PMQs achieve anything ?

    1. Shirley M
      April 27, 2022

      PMQ’s shows us how childish our politicians are. It’s all about point scoring instead of getting together, discussing problems and possible solutions and then debating which would benefit the country most.

      I’ve always been an optimist, but this government is turning me into a pessimist. We can’t blame the remainers for screwing up the UK, as we could during 2017-2019. This is ‘supposed’ to be a Brexit government with an 80 seat majority, working for the benefit of the UK. The joke is on the electorate!

    2. Original Richard
      April 27, 2022

      glen cullen :

      On the subject of energy the PM repeated again at today’s PMQs “we are going to have a nuclear reactor every year and not a nuclear reactor every decade…”

      He needs to read more carefully the BEIS’ British Energy Security Strategy where it is clear that the plan is for a nuclear reactor every year by 2050, which therefore means one a year from 2043 to 2050.

      The PM needs to ask BEIS why they do not want any new nuclear in the 2030s, particularly since they are planning to decarbonise our electricity by 2035, and what they have against nuclear when it is the only working technology which can supply independent, affordable, reliable low carbon energy.

  33. Con Voter
    April 27, 2022

    Occasionally I read
    House Price Crash Forum – The House Prices and the Economy section.
    It has never struck me as a controlled forum as Many are today.
    The current thread
    “Will we see our PM resign in the near future”
    Starting with the latest posts and working back a few pages is enlightening.

  34. XY
    April 27, 2022

    They didn’t really need £12bn, they wante dto introduce a new tax on pensioners. Their cunning plan is to use the thin-end-of-wedge appraoch and ramp it up over time.

    A disgrace.

    Redwood! Get yourself into that Chancellor role one way or another and get taxes down to get growth up.

    1. Everhopeful
      April 27, 2022

      +several thousands
      Surely at this existential point the time is ripe for Superman to fly to our rescue.
      Or will we all expire from politeness and party loyalty?

    2. alan jutson
      April 27, 2022

      +1

      Using the NHS and Social care as an excuse again, it works every timeout never improves.

      Lesson never learn’t !

  35. Narrow Shoulders
    April 27, 2022

    At this point the state will simply refinance it, so there is never an immediate cash cost that needs financing out of tax revenue.

    So even a (previously) sound money hawk like you Sir John has conceded that none of this money will ever be repaid.

    Is it any wonder that the pound is our pocket become ever more worthless and our savings may as well be spend now as they will not sustain us later.

    Create money – lose value.

  36. acorn
    April 27, 2022

    The BoE received £ 18 billion in interest on its Gilt holdings. It paid back £ 7.5 billion to the Treasury, which gave it the interest in the first place! Index linked Gilts paid out a coupon of £3.8 billion. The interest accrued on the principal of the £365 billion in issue, uplifts that currently to £514 billion but doesn’t get paid till redemption as JR says.

  37. a-tracy
    April 27, 2022

    Your government is charging companies that employ workers and collect all the PAYE tax and national insurance for you for free more and ignoring companies, usually foreign-owned that use little self-employed groups cut rates to clients because they’re not paying the same levels of NI taxation or income tax or corporation tax in the UK and you’ll be scratching your heads wondering why you’re not collecting the levels of national insurance and tax that you thought you would be.

  38. Ed M
    April 27, 2022

    Boris Johnson saying that Putin has ‘room’ to move out of Ukraine is a smart thing to say. This is real leadership in a serious situation. Well done, Mr Johnson. God bless you, may the Russians be driven out of Ukraine as quickly as possible and keep Europe safe from Russia.

    1. Clough
      April 28, 2022

      This has to be irony. In the real world, Ed M., Ukraine is being broken up and large areas of it are becoming administratively part of the Russian Federation, flying the Russian flag and using the rouble. All Johnson is doing is spending a vast amount of British taxpayers’ money on new military hardware, to replace the older weapons he’s been sending to the war zone only for them to be destroyed or captured. OK, he’s updating this country’s military capacities, but it’s not doing Ukraine much good.

  39. Ed M
    April 27, 2022

    Boris Johnson is a way smarter leader than Tony Blair (who got us into two stupid wars). Boris might be academic but he also has a feel for things on the world stage that Blair didn’t (although Blair thought he was a great leader. He was just great at PR).

  40. Pauline Baxter
    April 27, 2022

    I don’t really understand these strange numbers and forecasts Sir John.
    But one thing I DO understand is that your wonderful government (not), have chosen to remove the triple lock on state pensions at exactly the time when inflation would hit hard.
    You do not seem to realise that a very large number of voters have nothing else to live on.
    The STATE PENSION is the ONLY INCOME we have.

  41. turboterrier
    April 27, 2022

    OT
    Tonight on Farage was a chemical weapons expert former military man loads of experience in areas of conflict now in an educational role. With all what’s going on in the world why is not people of this calibre not fast tracked into the HoL to be there to assist politicians in making difficult decisions. When you have the perceived free loaders elevated to that place let’s get people in there who can actually make a difference. His name was Hamish de Breton-Gordon which I feel would go down well in the HoL.

Comments are closed.