I reproduce below my recent Conservative Home article
When I asked the Chancellor following his statement what advice he had received about the possible inflationary consequences of printing lots of money last year, he did not answer. He asserted yet again that the Bank of England is independent.
The Treasury regularly tells us the Bank of England is responsible for controlling inflation. They need to ask themselves why inflation has hit nine per cent, against a two per cent target, and why they think it could even go higher this autumn before falling away.
I cannot understand why Rishi Sunak claims the Bank is independent. The Chancellor chooses the Governor and has influence directly and indirectly over forecasts and policy at the Bank through joint official working and contacts with the Treasury.
Successive governments, with the backing of Parliament, have made substantial changes to the laws, rules and objectives and powers of the Bank over the last thirty years. When George Osborne selected Mark Carney he chose someone who was willing to use the Bank and its forecasts to support the Remain campaign in the referendum, in line with the Chancellor’s thinking.
Gordon Brown changed the inflation target to direct the Bank,and Alastair Darling forced an interest rate cut during the banking crisis on a reluctant Bank to implement an agreed international Finance Ministers’ strategy.
The Treasury respond by saying that what they mean by the Bank is independent is the narrower claim that it has sole control over money policy.
They accept that the Bank has been buffeted by political change. They lost control over managing the state debts and regulating the commercial banks, once thought to be important parts of central banking that were taken away from them.
Even this narrower claim is wrong. Over the last 14 years the main tool of monetary policy has been the creation of billions of pounds of new money by the Bank to buy up state debt. This has kept interest rates very low and would in normal circumstances be inflationary. Every pound of the £895bn created has been formally approved by successive chancellors.
Going further, every pound of bonds the Bank has bought has been underwritten by the Treasury. Chancellors have signed off to indemnify the Bank against all losses on this pile of assets. The Bank has an agreement from the Treasury that will top up its capital to a minimum level whatever happens.
That does not sound very independent and means chancellors need to watch carefully the liabilities the Bank is piling up.
I found it odd the current Chancellor seemed unwilling to talk about this. It has been on his watch that the Bank has bought £450bn of bonds, more than chancellors Darling, Osborne and Philip Hammond combined. Whilst he has also proposed and approved substantial increases in public spending and borrowing, the £450bn dwarfs everything else he has done.
Prior to the banking crash, people in advanced countries said that printing money and keeping interest rates artificially low was the kind of thing inflation-prone emerging market economies would do. The special circumstances of the banking collapse in 2008 did need these special measures to compensate for the destruction of money and credit taking place in the private sector.
There was also a good case for doing some more in 2020 to offset the collapse of activity brought on by lockdowns. I supported the money creation they proposed.
Continuing this policy throughout the whole of 2021, a year of fast growth and good recovery in the UK, was altogether more questionable.
Some people say inflation results from cost pressures and supply shocks. They blame current inflation on sky-high energy costs and surging food prices brought on by the Ukraine war.
It is true we are living through nasty hits from these forces. It is also true that British inflation was rising well before Russia invaded her neighbour.
China and Japan both rely on a lot of imports of energy but they still have inflation around two per cent, not near ten per cent. They did not allow a surge in money growth in 2020-2021, whereas the UK along with the US and EU did decide on a bulge in money growth, resulting in part from the money creation undertaken by the Bank.
Some people say inflation results from excess demand. If people have too much spending power for the capacity in the economy then prices rise quickly.
We can see some of this at work, as hospitality, travel and leisure businesses struggle to recruit enough labour to meet rising demand and need to pay higher wages and more for supplies.
The Bank points out in its defence to the charge that it has dropped the ball on inflation that there is little it can do if Russia disrupts energy and food markets. The only thing it can do if the economy is running too hot is to jack up interest rates to slow everything down.
There is some truth in these defences. It shows that countering inflation cannot be left to the Bank alone.
We need a supply side strategy from the whole of government to produce more energy, food, and other goods and services here at home to bring demand and supply into better balance. The Chancellor needs to produce policies which promote growth. Constantly hiking taxes and inventing new taxes will stifle investment, not encourage it.
Meanwhile the Bank does need to ask itself some tough questions about money. Why does it not have a target for money growth? Why does it ignore the impact of more created pounds and more credit on demand and prices?
It will be the Chancellor who has to tell us how the huge bond portfolio is doing, now bond prices have fallen markedly.
May 31, 2022
The essential line: ‘It shows that countering inflation cannot be left to the Bank alone.’ Indeed: the Bank doesn’t control all of the levers necessary. Government, for example, has been pushing up the Minimum Wage. If the Bank tries to conquer inflation, in abnormal times, by the normal measure of increasing interest rates, it will fail.
May 31, 2022
Indeed and pushing up the minimum wage is inflationary and, in effect, yet another back door tax increase. It also distorts pay as businesses have to pay this to lower paid workers but then often have little money left to give increases to the higher paid one so as to maintain differentials. The minimum wage is a law that makes it illegal for some people to work even if they want to and employers want them to. They can take a job on the minimum wage while paying £40 to commute each week (perhaps spending ten unpaid hours doing so, but not a job they might prefer yards from their house on 10p less than the minimum wage.
May 31, 2022
S_W
Indeed not only does the Bank not control all of the levers to correct government decisions, many government decisions are pushing the levers the wrong way, or ignoring them altogether.
According to a report in the Sunday Times business section this weekend, Government tax receipts have risen by 21% this last year.
Where has all of this money gone?
May 31, 2022
A lot of it to Big Pharma. Quite a lot more to the Chinese. And an awful lot to Government/Establishment chums.
May 31, 2022
There is an article in conservativewoman this morning, China, master in the art of war. War is being waged against us, but the fools in government are not interested, but very willing to be deceived.
‘As the West destroys itself with confected cultural conflicts, Net Zero and medical fascism, it is possible to see how the tenets of Sun Tzu are being used to hasten that destruction.’
May 31, 2022
Iago
They’ve not being deceived, it’s all going to plan, you will own nothing and you will be happy
May 31, 2022
Too true – its happening before our very eyes
May 31, 2022
Did the Chinese invent Critical Theory? I didn’t know that. Did they Chinese invent the Global Warming Hoax? I didn’t know that. Did the Chinese develop the deadly and ineffective vaccines that are being forced on us? I didn’t know that. The enemy is within the gate and a lot of people know that.
May 31, 2022
Were there any charges levied by the charter aircraft booked for the now cancelled deportation flight to Iraq originally due to depart this evening 31 May. How much has been wasted, say, over the last 5 years on planned and then abandoned at short notice deportation flights.
May 31, 2022
Good morning.
Why so much State debt ? If the State did not create so much debt and the government ran its departments better then there surely would be no need for so much money creation ?
I have said this before. I would not ask the person(s) to correct the problems that they themselves have created. To give examples:
Energy. The government has created legislation that will make energy both unaffordable and unreliable.
Food. The government is encouraging our farmers to produce less food.
Goods and services. Locking down a country and taxing people to the eyeballs reduces their ability to access this market.
I fully expect, overtime and given this governments desire to meddle in all our personal affairs, to issue State mandated dress codes and haircuts. This will be wrapped up in the usual diversity, inclusion, gender and quality nonsense.
And we all use to laugh at the likes of North Korea.
May 31, 2022
It is astonishing that Gordon Brown did a better job of running the country’s finances than Osborne, Hammond, Javid and Sunak. He was more conservative than his successors as well!
Tax,tax,tax Tories. Spend spend spend and waste Tories.
Now trying to out beat Labour with their Mass immigration policy!
Reply Brown overspent and overborrowed, helped bring the banks down and gave us the Great Recession!
May 31, 2022
And so has our present “conservative” chancellor, Sir John.
Useless! Is not the word for it But if the cap fits
May 31, 2022
”Brown overspent” – eh HS2 and Track & Trace…the list goes on
May 31, 2022
Reply to JR,
Overspent and over borrowed, what more than Johnson/Sunak? Give us the numbers and time period. Bank crash? Major?
Highest taxation in 70 years
Highest debt and deficit- structural deficit was going to be balanced by your party/govt. by 2015. How is that going? 80% cuts to 20% tax rises, did this ever happen?
Worse cost of living since 1950
Highest benefit increase in 30 years
Let us have the facts.
May 31, 2022
John makes the rather shaky assumption that Sunak, Johnson or indeed Bailey actually care at all about rising prices or the existential threat of the UK’s rising indebtedness. Personally, when the detritus hits the fan it won’t be these charlatans who suffer from the consequences of Weimar public policy
What is worrying is that if Labour do usurp this vile government they will do what Johnson has done but with an even greater level of viciousness, zeal and enthusiasm…they will build a proper surveillance State and destroy fundamental nature of who we are
May 31, 2022
I do not think Labour/SNP/Libdems will win the next election unless the dire lefty remainers do manage to ditch Boris. Who in England wants to be rules by the SNP. Furthermore they are likely to fix the voting system if they can lowering the voting age and other changes that might well ensure the soft left Tories or a right party never win a majority ever again.
Boris/Sunak just need to revert to being a real Conservative – kill net zero, cut taxes, cull red tape, halve the size of the state…
May 31, 2022
Ll,
Boris and Sunak will not change.
There is no benefit whatsoever in keeping this government in power on the basis that the other options are worse.
May 31, 2022
+1
May 31, 2022
+100 If this government is returned to power, the electorate is, in effect, rewarding them for doing a really crap job and damaging the UK beyond repair!
May 31, 2022
It won’t happen so change so you need a change of tune.
May 31, 2022
LL,
The treacherous Tories already reneged on the Lothian question- Gove took the crumb given. 12 years of failing to answer the Lothian question and promise to do so.
So the SNP vote on English only matters! Johnson was following Sturgeon during covid, did you not watch what was going on.
Have you not seen free university and prescription charges in devolved nations while English citizens fleeced! We pay for the devolved largesse.
May 31, 2022
Hope
Indeed been touring Scotland for the last 3 weeks, roads outside of the big city centres are in much better condition than in England as well, add to your list no Care Home fees, and thus disposable income seems to go a lot further.
Visited the Scottish Parliament building as well whilst in Edinburgh, no wonder it cost a fortune given the very complex nature of the design, and the huge amount of wasted and inefficient space involved.
Yet another fantasy/vanity project, years late and over budget, which will be very, very costly to maintain.
May 31, 2022
Last sentence is not happening. The fix is in.
May 31, 2022
LL
What evidence do you have that anyone, even Labour, would enter into a coalition agreement with a political party which, should they gain independence, would no longer be eligible to be part of said coalition, and therefore, would leave the other party as a minority and thereby out of power ?
Your whole premise is, if you pardon me for saying, illogical.
May 31, 2022
Not at all – Labour will grant another Scottish independence election to gain power if the numbers work and will then probably lower the voting age and try to change the voting system.
May 31, 2022
So it is all guesswork on your part.
May 31, 2022
and they rely on this worry, so millions trot out to vote for the lesser evil of the two. Then the whole planned destruction carries on, alongside the pantomime of pretending the red/blue and yellow rosettes of the state parties are a choice for the electorate to affect real change and reclaim what is rightfully ours.
May 31, 2022
Indeed Dom.
May 31, 2022
Is it ant wonder there are problems.
£5m a day on illegal immigrants.
Every sector of government and the public services hemorrhaging waste.
Whatever happened to those perceived halcyon days when if you can’t afford it you didn’t have it or living within your means. Never have I heard recently the BoE tell the government you cannot have it without giving up something in return. That is what the old branch managers used to tell its customers.
If you want something you have got to work for it. Not expect the government aka taxpayers to finance it. The whole system needs to be dragged kicking and screaming into the real world of the 21st century.
May 31, 2022
Turb-T you are absolutely right but unfortunately the £5m is only the tip of the iceberg. They get given a phone and I am sure the networks don’t waive their charges. They are kitted out having arrived with no clothes and given, I think, £30 a week spending money.
They should be housed in the many unused military camps around the country, given two sets of under clothes and denims and made to run the camp under supervision. No spending money and no access to the surrounding district. Contact between them and the Home office via a bank of normal BT landlines.
But none of this can happen because we are still under EU law and the ECJ!!!!!!!!!!!! So much for getting ‘Brexit done’, it is a complete myth.
Why is Rawanda not happening? For the same reason, and it was stated yesterday, the army of human rights lawyers are waiting for the first plane load to be ready for take off before they launch their legal campaign under EU law and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. The idea of Rawanda will fade away as will the claim that it was legally water tight!!
We are being fed all this rubbish while the Remainer campaign gathers strength and traction to oust the PM. They are stage managing the drip,drip of partygate revelations and quisling MPs putting in letters of no confidence. As he survives each attack (the police report, Sue Gray etc etc) the media spearhead the next attack. Sky news was delighted to report this morning that a THIRD MP had written to Ian Brady.
(On a side note, a 61 year old interviewer should not dress up to look like a teenage granddaughter as the face destroys the image!!!!)
Covid gave the Remainers time to re-group as PM May did, by delaying the triggering of article 50. The government benches and the Civil Service are riddled from top to bottom with Remainers and Boris needs to hit back hard and get a lot more of ‘Brexit done’. The French hate us and the EU wants to punish us, so sort the NI protocol, break EU law and implement Rawanda and and tell the ECJ to get stuffed.
May 31, 2022
GB, +1, I’m right with you on your conclusions.
May 31, 2022
George Brooks,
Boris Johnson has no intention of implementing any of the things you are suggesting. His future benefactors don’t want them.
It takes real cheek to use Brexit – which Johnson never fully delivered (and never will) – as a reason for defending him against removal.
May 31, 2022
And yet another 600 dinghy invaders today. This government couldn’t care less about our prosperity, our well-being or our safety.
May 31, 2022
Agree
May 31, 2022
This is interesting reading.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/report-on-review-of-cash-allowance-paid-to-asylum-seekers/report-on-review-of-weekly-allowances-paid-to-asylum-seekers-and-failed-asylum-seekers-2021
It is a government website, Sir John so it is OK.
Nice payrise if you can get it 😉
May 31, 2022
Spot on.
May 31, 2022
The people of the UK need to be independent of the existing Chancellor, by having a competent one instead, or none at all.
May 31, 2022
Sir John, it’s all very well to say that in 2020 the government needed to provide help to deal with the consequences of lockdowns. But that just begs the question: isn’t it time by now to admit that lockdowns were a mistake in 2020, just as in 2021? Sweden did not print money in 2020 on furlough and eat-out-to-help-out, because it carried on normally with Covid. It followed the 2019 pandemic preparedness plan, as we should have done. I see inflation in Sweden was running at 6% last month, well below inflation here.
May 31, 2022
Governments have always run a parallel non-democratic policy for things like James Bond, but today they are running a parallel non-democratic policy that effects our safety, food, heating and right to travel or go to work.
May 31, 2022
If you are having difficulty identifying the cause of the current inflation, look no further than the graph three quarters of the way down this page.
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/quantitative-easing
So what you might think? Then you realize the last three bars of that graph are from 2020 alone!
That is, the Bank of England printed more money in order to fund government spending in 2020, god alone knows what 2022 looks like!!
The Bank of England is not independent, nor are the current price rises. Unlike the Democrats in the USA who have attempted to make ‘Putin’s price rises’ common currency, this current bout of inflation in the UK does belong to Claus Schwab(WEF) and Boris Johnson.
NB. There is a video interview with Bill Gates circulating where he admits that COVID was ‘like the flu, but a little bit different’.
May 31, 2022
+1
May 31, 2022
Exactly right. Bailey as we know while head of the FCA allowed them to gave us one size fits all (regardless of credit risk) ~ 39% personal overdraft rates. Clearly anti-competitive and moronic. My OD jumped from base plus 2.5% to 39.9%. The man is clearly unfit to run his own piggy bank.
Carney was an appalling, climate alarmist pushing, remainer and failed hugely at the BoE . Also he was appointed by Boris to offer advice on COP26 – why would anyone sensible do that?
May 31, 2022
LL Regarding Carney, TCW recently had an interesting piece about the rise of ESG investing and the connection between Carney and the very influential Mr Bloomberg, both of whom pushed for ESG to become the norm. So, I guess Carney was a suitable choice for COP if the PM and/or his confidante seek to push the word towards net zero and wanted our financial systems to be tailored to this outcome.
The TCW article and link to a documentary film on the matter are well worth a look, illuminating the vast amounts of money made as net zero policies interfere with the free market.
May 31, 2022
Indeed follow the money or vested interest is rather a good rule in general.
May 31, 2022
The people of the UK need to be independent, full stop. I’ve just received this response from the Government to my signature to the petition ‘Do not sign any WHO Pandemic Treaty unless it is approved by public referendum’:
‘To protect lives, the economy and future generations from future pandemics, the UK government supports a new legally-binding instrument to strengthen pandemic prevention, preparedness and response.
‘COVID-19 has demonstrated that no-one is safe until we are all safe, and that effective global cooperation is needed to better protect the UK and other countries around the world from the detrimental health, social and economic impacts of pandemics and other health threats. The UK supports a new international legally-binding instrument as part of a cooperative and comprehensive approach to pandemic prevention, preparedness and response . . . ‘
‘The UK supports a new international legally-binding instrument . . .’ Chilling words, heralding the removal of sovereignty over our bodies, and mandatory injection with any new drug still at its experimental phase, if a virus is deemed likely to become a pandemic.
I ask anyone who supports the Government’s stance, how many people do you know who have actually DIED OF covid-19? (My emphasis.)
May 31, 2022
“The people of the UK need to be independent, full stop.”
Absolutely Mary; we have to stop Boris’ subservience to the globalist and all others of similar intent, but where / who is the alternative?
May 31, 2022
And in related news Boris wants to impose the cost bringing back imperial measures for silly political reasons trying to con us into believing it is further proof of him taking advantage of Brexit.
I see jubilee biscuits are allegedly not allowed into NI. Maybe he should deal with serious issues. Where is the promised legislation?
Well done to the MPs who have put letters in. The whips are said to be putting together a plan to save him ‘for the good of the country’
They need to get out more. I know no one who doesn’t ‘despise’ him and won’t vote for him, ever.
May 31, 2022
But who would replace him?
What we need of course is an individual with integrity, imagination and inspiration to lead the country. You can be sure though that envy will prevent such a person getting anywhere near the reins of power.
May 31, 2022
Penny Mordaunt
May 31, 2022
The top twenty in the betting odds to replace Boris have far less chance of winning than Boris most are appalling lefty, green crap pushing remainers too.
May 31, 2022
If the whips ‘save’ Boris, then they are contributing to the death of the CONS party.
I am fed up of useless undemocratic political parties who rely on us voting for ‘the least worst’! It means they know they are useless, and will do nothing about it! I would rather vote for Screaming Lord Sutch than any of the main parties, but hope I will have a UK supporting party to vote for, and the main parties all fail on that aspect!
May 31, 2022
+1
May 31, 2022
“bringing back imperial measures”
Stark Raving Bonkers! Surely this is proof, if there wasn’t enough already, that Boris Johnson is clinically insane. He should be removed from office immediately and taken to an institution for the terminally stupid – and I don’t mean the House of Commons!
June 1, 2022
Why do we need laws telling us we must use the metric system? People are perfectly capable of deciding between themselves what system to use.
May 31, 2022
I see Lord Parkinson did an outstanding job of espousing the benefits of using imperial measures in his Sky News interview.
May 31, 2022
Agreed.
May 31, 2022
On a different subject! This morning on BBC R4 the EU said that Ukraine must get all its country back in the end!
Can I suggest Britain should also get the fishing and other areas the eu has stolen from us!
May 31, 2022
There’s a good article on geopoliticalmonitor.com on the wave of constructive destruction Russia has unleashed on the Bretton Woods system :”Ukraine War:A Reshuffling of the Global Monetary Order”,17/5/22,by Jose Miguel Alonso-Trabanco.It’s worth a read if you want to know what this war is really about.
Elsewhere,Sirius Report reports that Russia is now considering billing it’s largest grain customers(Egypt,Turkey,Saudi Arabia and Iran)in rubles.Foreign Minister Lavrov is visiting Saudi tomorrow and Turkey next week.Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu has confirmed that:
“Ankara will not join the anti-Russian sanctions.We will not be connected to the sanctions against Russia and will not allow it to be done through us.”
There’s an interesting connection to be made between Turkey’s increasing Eurasian orientation,Russia’s grip on the north-eastern ports of the Black Sea/Sea of Azov(and their connectivity with the trans-eurasian trade routes)and President Erdogan’s decision to press ahead with a ship canal to the west of Istanbul that will connect the Black Sea with the Sea of Marmara,bypassing the congested Bosphorus.”Everyone” has said the project is not commercially viable – but perhaps he is expecting a large increase in trade as Eurasia connects with Africa via the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.It would give a boost to Egypt too.Over time Europe will be reduced to an American colonial backwater if it continues on it’s current course.
May 31, 2022
Really the only logical conclusion is that the govt WANTS inflation, hypothermia and starvation and frankly death.
Look rationally at what govt has done over the past couple of years.
Nothing remotely normal.
Remember …Order out of Chaos.
Often touted by deluded revolutionaries who believe it will bring them unlimited success!
May 31, 2022
Indeed; all driven by Boris’ globalist masters.
May 31, 2022
The Bank of England is independent, in the same way my left leg is independent of my right one. My left leg can be shaken or raised, but it is an illusion of independence since it cannot progress anywhere without my right leg.
The current inflation has been created by both the Bank of England and the Government acting in lock-step with America and other western “democracies” to implement the Covid restrictions/lockdowns and the UN Net Zero and WEF plan for creative destruction in order to “Build Back Better.”
The destructive policies: lockdowns; Net Zero; tax, borrow and squander are the fault of the Government. The Bank of England has facilitated them by money printing, with the agreement of Sunak.
If it wasn’t for Brexit, we might just as well have voted for Corbyn and McDonnell.
May 31, 2022
Well said Donna. I like the analogy.
May 31, 2022
+1
Johnson out spent Corbyn’s programme! Doubled the 10 year debt of Brown in two years! Both must be laughing their socks off. All Labour do is float and idea and Johnson grabs it and doubles the spending.
May 31, 2022
Correct Donna – The destructive policies: lockdowns; Net Zero; tax, borrow and squander are the fault of the Government. The Bank of England has facilitated them by money printing, with the agreement of Sunak.
Plus red tape, borrowing, the energy market rigging, a duff NHS, poor transport, pointless degrees, too many choosing not to work…
May 31, 2022
This bout of inflation has been driven to two supply side issues as much as printing money.
1) Increases in wages, both minimum wage government mandated, and market forces driving wages up as a result of leaving the EU and losing endless supply of replaceable cheap labour. This is a good thing and would have corrected itself reasonably quickly once the changes had embedded themselves in the cycle.
2) Lack of supply of staples and energy that we have become reliant on imports to fulfil. This is down to environmental, net zero and cost issues and will take much longer to correct. This is one U -turn I would welcome from this constantly twirling government.
Live within your means and become self sufficient. Two guaranteed ways to combat inflation
May 31, 2022
NS, the replaceable cheap labour from the EU acted as a brake on progress through automation and improvements in technology which is sorely needed now to offset the claimed shortage of labour. Government seems to think the only solution is more inward migration.
May 31, 2022
Second to brexit wasn’t immigration the biggest issue for the electorate ….once again the electorate ignored and democracy overturned
May 31, 2022
Last sentence +1.
May 31, 2022
There is no lack of supply of energy….there’s a lack of confidence in the green revolution and the banning of fossil fuels
This government is just change the mix towards renewables
May 31, 2022
Off topic, overnight I have received a notification that the government has responded to the petition calling for a referendum on any WHO pandemic treaty:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/614335
Given the ongoing row about the Northern Ireland protocol this is particularly interesting:
“The Government always carefully considers whether domestic legislation will be required to implement the UK’s international obligations when negotiating a treaty. Not every treaty requires implementing legislation and it is too early to say if that would apply here. However, in all circumstances, the UK’s ability to exercise its sovereignty would remain unchanged and the UK would remain in control of any future domestic decisions about national restrictions or other measures.”
In other words, “in all circumstances”, and irrespective of “international law”, as a “dualist state” the UK would still retain the sovereign power to decide whether or not to implement any aspect of the treaty, and the other parties to the treaty should be aware of that reservation before they accept the UK’s ratification.
May 31, 2022
Denis Cooper :
When the final text of the treaty appears in May 2024 I expect all references to national sovereignty taking precedence will have disappeared.
May 31, 2022
Indeed; that is the intent.
May 31, 2022
They told us that about the European Economic Community. It was a lie.
May 31, 2022
Unfortunately both Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson have for the most part been a disappointment in the way they have performed their roles and the policies they have pursued. In Sunak’s case it is surprising. He does at least have the training and background to challenge these false treasury orthodoxies, but appears not to have had the strength of character to do so.
Politically we will just have to rely on the uselessness of sir beer Starmer and the Labour front bench, and the English electorate at least not wanting a government in hock to the Scottish separatists. That must be boris’s calculation. What a wasted opportunity.
May 31, 2022
I see Conservative MPs such as Sir John are to be contacted immediately by the whips should the threshold of 54 letters to sir graham Brady be reached. If that happens I would suggest they ask the whips “OK if we continue with Boris what is he going to do about implementing our manifesto commitments and governing according to the policies and principles upon which we were elected?” And if there isn’t a good answer, make a change. Who knows, perhaps there will be.
May 31, 2022
Return to the 70s in terms of power cuts.
But this is a FAR WORSE world than the 70s!
We used to have shops and banks and car parks.
Now we rely on being online.
So how on earth will we manage our forced internet lives?
( And yes…I do have a wind up radio and a lamp with USB ports ….what fun that’ll be!)
And if they actually do do away with landlines. ( Oh and think…electric cars they need electricity!!).
Empty buckets for heads…Or absolute criminality?
JUST IN TIME….and nothing is!!
What happened to “Disaster Recovery”??
June 1, 2022
Everhopeful: “We used to have shops and banks and car parks. Now we rely on being online.”
A couple of months ago, my local area had a power outage due to something going wrong at a local substation. None of the shops could do business with cards, and it was a cash only day.
That sort of thing is likely to be more frequent as we are being forced to ‘green’ power – which we do not have sufficient capacity to service all our electricity needs, especially when everyone will have to buy electronic ‘green’ cars.
It’s about time ‘Green’ is recognised for what it is, an attempt to reverse the industrial revolution.
And everyone should be aware that a subsistence economy in the UK cannot support 70million population.
May 31, 2022
As the country seems to be run on labour policies, hence all the waste and bad choices, is it the treasury running Sunak and the B of E, not the other way round?
Maybe I’ve been watching too much American tv, but they seem to have inner cabals running things, perhaps we have too? Large NGO’s money buying influence?
May 31, 2022
As the country seems to be run on labour policies, hence all the waste and bad choices, is it the treasury running Sunak and the B of E, not the other way round?
Maybe I’ve been watching too much American tv, but they seem to have inner cabals running things, perhaps we have too? Large NGO’s money buying influence?
May 31, 2022
And I see that the NHS is saying it needs thousands of new beds to cope with demand despite previously abolishing similar numbers or more.
So what’s the problem? Presumably money was saved, so with this and massive budget uplifts and the space not lost, why aren’t they already up and running?
Maybe the egregious amounts spent on non front line has something to do with it?
May 31, 2022
How can anyone pretend that the Bank of England is independent when the Government unilaterally imposed an additional mandate to drive the U.K. economy to Net Zero by 2050?
The Bank has always struggled to meet its principal role, the reason why it exists, to hit the 2% inflation target. This was made much harder, and indeed sometimes utterly impossible, when it was also given a target for economic growth. It is generally accepted that in most stages of every economic cycle, there is a trade-off between these two outcome measures.
In last year’s budget, they were told to use monetary means to ensure that the U.K. economy achieves Net Zero by 2050. A target which is directly opposed to increasing economic growth.
Out-of-control inflation was always going to be the inevitable consequence.
Now we have it.
Also the BOE is further eroding its reputation by issuing alarmist temperature change forecasts (way beyond its area of competence) in order to bully banks into going against their commercial judgement to fund inefficient, uneconomic green projects
May 31, 2022
“It is also true that British inflation was rising well before Russia invaded her neighbour.”
Absolutely correct. We were already heading for inflation as a result of our Government, led by our Marxist Civil Service, implementing :
– An excessive pandemic shutdown policy coupled with excessive money printing.
– A pointless and unnecessary net zero CO2 policy designed to make our energy very expensive and intermittent as evidenced by a complete lack of nuclear energy, the only low carbon energy source which is affordable and reliable.
– Massive immigration to put intolerable pressure on housing, healthcare, infrastructure, police, judicial system, prisons, social cohesion and finances.
– Massive spending on useless projects such as HS2 and employing ever more civil servants.
– Re-wilding to reduce our ability to grow our own food.
The only advantage of the Conservatives is that they alone are capable of u-turns in order to remain in power, whilst Labour/Lib Dem/Greens/SNP would continue with such policies to the bitter end in the communist belief that the ends always justifies the means, no matter the hardship forced upon the population.
May 31, 2022
The Welfare State is one huge scam. Helicopter money is inflationary?
The folk who will be really hurt by govt. shenanigans will be those who go out and do a day’s work.
Benefits available should be totally transparent.
Ever heard of 10 hrs free driving lessons for “Job Seekers” ? I hadn’t!
May 31, 2022
I don’t know if you were watching Newsnight last night Mr Redwood but your name was actually mentioned by Ben Chiu, with a quote from your blog about money printing and its inflationary effects. Mr Chiu said there is no proven cause and effect from QE on inflation, only correlation. If only the BBC understood that it is correlation only, rather than (scientifically proven) cause and effect, that supports the existence of the so called ‘climate crisis’ they love so much!
May 31, 2022
Good Call
May 31, 2022
This bout of inflation is the cost of lockdown. Putin decided to do what he did because of the West’s weakened position – it couldn’t have been better timed to halt the Covid bounce.
No-one is counting the number of deaths caused by the Covid lockdown, nor the deaths caused by the economic fallout of the Covid lockdown.
The lockdowns, the money printing. All of it utter lunacy.
May 31, 2022
No Longer Anonymous :
“This bout of inflation is the cost of lockdown. Putin decided to do what he did because of the West’s weakened position – it couldn’t have been better timed to halt the Covid bounce.”
The Covid lockdowns may have brought forward Putin’s invasion of Ukraine by further weakening the West but the main reason was the success of the fifth column Marxist green activists who have used the CO2 plant food scam to cripple the West’s economies and making the West, particularly Europe, dependent upon Russian and Chinese energy, food, fertiliser, strategic goods and raw materials.
The Marxist activists have curtailed Europe’s fossil fuel production whether this be coal, North Sea oil and gas and halted fracking, closed down their nuclear power plants, despite nuclear being the only low carbon energy source which is reliable and affordable and are now planning for Europe to have expensive and intermittent energy using Chinese made wind turbines and solar panels.
May 31, 2022
Original Richard, I don’t think Covid had anything to do with it. What made up Putin’s mind for him was surely a combination of Ukraine’s provocation of Russia by floating the idea of joining NATO, then intensifying the shelling of the Donbas in mid-February, plus NATO’s debacle last August in Afghanistan.
May 31, 2022
It was always obvious that the so called independence of the Bank of England was political cover for Gordon Brown’s worst excesses. It is also fairly clear that it is current government policy that is driving inflation. Primarily in how it spends and funds that spending, but also in the way some of it’s policies work – such as zero carbon. And we should not forget the issues that the covid lockdown caused with business.
But perhaps more to the point, there can be no doubt that not only does Boris and Rishi not understand much of economic theory, but nor does this particular “science” inform any government thinking. Many people would put Boris and his administration to the left of Miliband, but in terms of day to day administration they are functioning only with the sort of spin that Blair used to love.
May 31, 2022
Tackling inflation at 9% with interest rates of 1% is like trying to fend off a rottweiler with a feather duster. It just won’t work.
May 31, 2022
I’ve just had an email informing me about the petition I signed about not signing up to the WHO pandemic treaty, it hasn’t made a scrap of difference, the direction of travel is planned and there’s nothing we can do about it!
Do we have to resort to mass civil disobedience to make our voices heard?
May 31, 2022
It is the only way this government under the leadership of Boris is likely to hear what we say. It will need to be strong.
He has no idea how the economy works. He has no idea what people think and cares absolutely nothing. He treats us like children and simpletons. Example – he thinks getting back to pints is important, but only because it helps his survival.
May 31, 2022
Start of the Dark Ages
May 31, 2022
If the BoE is independent and simply has to meet an inflation target of 2% but the actual inflation rate is close to 10% then why hasn’t the governor of the BoE been fired for gross incompetence ? It was within his power to limit inflation to 2% – simply put interest rates up to 5% and unwind QE. So why didn’t he ? The answer is the political consequences of 5% interest rates on unemployment and property prices and so on would have been unacceptable to Sunak and the government. So, the BoE is plainly not independent and doesn’t actually have any inflation target.
May 31, 2022
Interesting article on TCW this morning about how monkeypox is going to be the next covid with bells on!
And a deafening silence about how the disease is transmitted so the vast majority of the population shouldn’t be at risk
We’re doomed Capt Mainwaring, doomed!
May 31, 2022
We’ll have to be masked up again to protect vulnerable groups.
May 31, 2022
The RAC reporting on the BBC that petrol prices are at there highest at £1.73….well they’re wrong my local station is at £1.76
And that’s under a conservative government – apart from collecting the extra revenue just what is this government doing
May 31, 2022
Update – my petrol station this afternoon has put up the price again to £1.77’9….heyho its just more revenue for our government
May 31, 2022
You have demonstrated conclusively that the Bank of England is not truly independent and have indicated some ways in which the Chancellor influences the bank. Let us home in on one key conundrum. The Government is borrowing over £150 billion per annum. If this “borrowing” is not financed by QE or another form of money printing, how else is it to be funded? Only by genuine borrowing, either at home or abroad. Borrowing at home is effected via gilt edge shares. In inflationary times the public are reluctant to lend to central government and have to be bribed by offering them yields slightly in excess of general market yields. There is obviously a cost to the Exchequer. The disadvantages of borrowing abroad when we cannot predict foreign currency exchange rates are obvious.
Money supply targetting can be effected via inflation targetting but the inflation index used in the exercise must not be CPI or RPI but must take into account asset prices. I refer in particular to house prices. The ratio of median house price to median salary was just under 3 in the mid-nineties and is now 8. That is a staggering increase and has made it difficult for middle income people to enter the housing market. I first became a home owner in 1976 at the age of 30 and that was regarded as late. It is now commonplace to have to wait until age 40.
A non-inflationary borrowing requirement is one that approximately equals anticipated economic growth. UK GDP is about £ 2.2 trillion and typical growth is under 2% per annum so we are looking at £40 billion as being a non-inflationary annual borrowing requirement. How can the Chancellor achieve this without either (a) raising taxes or (b) reducing public expenditure (much preferred)?
It is not a cost of living crisis but a value of money crises. At Epiphany in 1958, three Treasury Ministers resigned because the Cabinet approved public expenditure that was £50 MILLION more than the non-inflationary amount. We are now incurring Government borrowing that is more than £100 BILLION is excess of the non-inflationary amount.
So, Sir John, I challenge you to come up with ideas for public expenditure reductions with a total saving of at least £100 billion per annum. It can only be done with a much smaller State.
May 31, 2022
Despite me constantly banging on about the need for government to both control and cut spending, I am hear nothing from our kind host.
Tells you all you need to know.
Reply I have often reminded people of some of my proposed spending reductions
May 31, 2022
Passing the buck, failure to take responsibility has become standard practice. World events, follow the ‘science’ etc.
They are all at it and succeeding! The Treasury blames BoE, BoE blames world events while no ne will recognise that printing money, pumping vast amounts of unearned cash into the economy, always causes inflation.
Still, they are only following the leadership of Alexander de Pfeffel Johnson who never takes responsibility for his actions, even to the extent of blaming the staff.
May 31, 2022
Are we seeing the slow death of fiat currency? It’s been there all our lives, growing ever more soft as countries moved from the gold standard, through Bretton Woods, and then with the Nixon Shock of ’71 the last tie with scarcity was broken. ‘wtf happened in 1971’ is probably a familiar web site to all here.
It can be hard to see the paths which take longer than a lifespan, but history shows up every fiat currency dies as ‘Money printer go Brrrr!’ can’t be resisted by those in power. Daniel Hannan is fond of saying we get the politicians we deserve. He’s right: fiat money and Keynesianism are beloved by politicians because they remove the limit on their largesse come election time, but it’s the voters who ignore their gut instinct and vote for what’s unaffordable. An ever-growing state follows.
The Austrian School of Economics knows all this. Steve Baker’s a fan. It does seem that concentrating on the minutiae of what could bring inflation down is missing the big picture: our money is flawed, too easily debased. We need sound money leading to a curtailment of political power and a smaller state. It will arrive, the question is how much pain will we go through before then. Meanwhile, we have central planning of the price of money instead of leaving it to a free market.
May 31, 2022
‘Government responded:
To protect lives, the economy and future generations from future pandemics, the UK government supports a new legally-binding instrument to strengthen pandemic prevention, preparedness and response.’
This first paragraph of the email from the government Sir John sums up the response to the petition for a referendum on the UK signing the WHO pandemic treaty. Quite obviously the intention is to sign up to this abomination.
It is an absolute disgrace for government to abrogate responsibility in this way. Next time peoples lives are ruined, businesses closed and the economy trashed, it will be because WHO ordered it. Nothing to do with OUR government. No Siree!
May 31, 2022
and there is no plan for a ‘global’ government…….
They signed us up to the UN Migration Pact despite a huge petition and that’s with very few people knowing about it because it was and is kept rather quiet.
Again, being run by outside forces and not for our benefit at all.
However, lets sabre rattle at others over their lack of democracy shall we.
May 31, 2022
Part of this arrogant government’s response to the Pandemic Treaty petition.
Government responded:
“To protect lives, the economy and future generations from future pandemics, the UK government supports a new legally-binding instrument to strengthen pandemic prevention, preparedness and response.”
So despite over 150,000 objections it blunders on…as if it EVER got anything right!!
May 31, 2022
So the petition (website and system) is a complete waste of time and resources….another hit for democracy
May 31, 2022
Some hours later…
Looks like the treaty has been blocked in Davos!
Voted down by African countries, bless them.
Well done!
There will probably be another attempt…but for the while it is voted down.
June 1, 2022
I expect the African countries are just holding out for bigger bribes …. but it has at least temporarily stopped the WHO steamroller flattening what passes for democracy in the UK.
June 1, 2022
Spot On
May 31, 2022
The response does say further on that the proposal will be put to Parliament, I think you’ll find, EH. Personally, I believe we should have a referendum to decide on the pandemic treaty issue. I feel sure our good host would not object.
May 31, 2022
The bank balance sheet will double after the next down turn and then inflation will double after that and first to the bail-outs, wins the most assets. 550 billionaires extra, in two years.
May 31, 2022
Another day goes by without action from this incompetent government on the Northern Ireland Protocol. Governments that can’t do anything lose elections.
May 31, 2022
Here’s an email I circulated earlier today:
“This is why we are probably left with no choice but unilateral action – because two successive Prime Ministers were so desperate to get their own wonderful special trade deals with the EU that they were willing to sell the pass by effectively giving the EU a veto over any proposed alternative arrangements for the Irish land border. Of which there were a number well worth exploring, but instead largely ignored [1] .
First, on March 2 2018, at the Mansion House, Theresa May gratuitously accepts responsibility for ensuring that the EU does not fortify its side of the land border [2]:
“But it is not good enough to say, “We won’t introduce a hard border; if the EU forces Ireland to do it, that’s down to them’. We chose to leave, we have a responsibility to help find a solution.”
In fact there is nothing in Article 50 TEU or any other part of the EU treaties saying that a withdrawing member state has a responsibility to assist the continuing member states with problems which may arise from its departure, and as Jacob Rees-Mogg pointed out at the time [3] that was a stupid unnecessary concession:
“It is overwhelmingly in the interests of the Republic of Ireland to maintain an open border with the United Kingdom. And I think if you’re going into a negotiation you should use your strongest cards, and just to tear one of the up and set hares running on other issues is, I think, an error.”
Second, on August 21 2019, in Berlin, Boris Johnson agrees with Angela Merkel that the “the onus is on us” to come up with alternative ideas that the EU will find acceptable [4].
Which of course they will never do, as was demonstrated less than a week later on August 27 when they dismissed out of hand the well-developed proposals from Sir Jonathan Faull and two colleagues [5]:
“One senior EU source told BBC News NI the proposals were “inadequate and not anywhere near the landing zone”.
The “landing zone” being that defined by the EU, then as it will be now; and their idea now is that it is located within the confines of the existing, immutable, protocol.
Just as the EU with its raucous Irish parrot on its shoulder would never have willingly allowed us to escape from Theresa May’s ‘backstop’, as she no doubt knew, so too the EU will now be equally unwilling to allow us to escape from the trap into which Boris Johnson has led us for the sake of his pathetic trade deal, most likely worth a one-off 0.75% of GDP, equivalent to natural growth of the UK economy over less than four months at the long term trend growth rate of 2.5% a year, and almost certainly the only way out of that trap will one carved by the UK through unilateral action taken as an independent sovereign state.”
The first reference is here:
https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/missed-opportunities-for-the-irish-border/
May 31, 2022
The next general election in the UK; assuming such a level of democracy still exists; will contain the option for Northern Ireland; for its outcome to be interpreted as if it were an Ireland reunification referendum. Being generous, my Acorn party, will seek a super majority dual mandate. That is, if 12 out of 18 Northern Ireland Westminster constituencies vote for the Acorn Party; AND, 12 out of 18 popular votes across Northern Ireland are for an Acorn party candidate; reunification negotiations between the UK, US, EU and likely the UN will start and conclude within three months. Naturally, several thousand UN blue berets, will have to be put on standby .
May 31, 2022
Seems a very unlikely fantasy acorn
Dream on.
June 1, 2022
I will leave the dreaming to you, as you frequently demonstrate, you couldn’t create a scenario like mine. I don’t see you as a “keynote” speach writer. That is, a speech to establish and develop a main (key) theme and set an overall tone (note) for a post/comment on this site for instance.
May 31, 2022
Hospitality industry having trouble recruiting???
So what are the millions doing here that have been brought in from T Blair onward through to the current one?
We have far too many people here and it is being added to as we speak, and yet we are told we still have shortages!!
I think hospitality industry is going to find it is struggling due to lack of customers as things go on rather than staff. Who but the very rich and the profligate is going to be able to afford a trip down the pub or a meal out.
May 31, 2022
And yet we have 1 million unemployed and 500 illegal immigrants arriving per day across the channel staying in 4*hotels….who’s going to make them all breakfast and clean their sheets !
May 31, 2022
I think it’s pretty clear that the many illegal immigrants who travel to this country see themselves more as recipients of services rather than as providers of services, and I’m sure that their initial experience of living in four star hotels on arrival just reinforces that.
June 1, 2022
They’re not out to be rescued, they’re out to get as much finanical benefit as possible and a means to transport their families to get the same
May 31, 2022
Boris in particular, but Sunak too by his lack of the correct action, do not understand inflation in an economy.
Our problem is inflation which will not disappear quickly.
Boris and Sunak are not addressing it. Handouts are not the means. And not addressing it extends it.
Why are the two supported by MPs?
Answer, the Tory party is more important than anything else, and people are made to pay.
May 31, 2022
So, up to 90,000 civil service jobs might soon disappear. On average a civil servant works for around £300 a day.
As was done during the pandemic, they might be replaced by contracted management consultants. Taking for example what the Commons Public Accounts Committee recently published about the consultants used in Test and Trace, Deloitte got £200 m from its spell helping the DHSC, which made each of its consultants paid on average £1,244 a day.
Cancelling 90k public servants could save £27 m a day.
We have to hope that less than 21,700 private consultants will be required to carry out the same tasks, and/or that these people will work at least 4.15 times more intensively than the CSs they’ll replace.
May 31, 2022
Your post assumes they are all very busy.
June 1, 2022
Cameron/Clegg reduced the Civil Service by shuffling many off into the Quangocracy. Still Public Servants and on the same terms of employment, but no longer classified as Civil Servants.
Watch what they do …..
May 31, 2022
Sunak needs to go and fast. I hope that will happen in a summer reshuffle.
His trailing EU policy shows he is just another remainer pretending to be a leaver.
Sadly, it’s unlikely that his successor will be much better. It’s a long time since we had a Chancellor with any actual understanding or background in economics and I hold out little hope for one arriving any time soon.
May 31, 2022
There’s something coming up very soon which would give the World Health Org. control over you and me in future Pandemics.
Please tell me someone, in plain language, if this is a good idea.
( Sorry this question is not about Inflation, but it is on my mind more than inflation )
June 1, 2022
Floating Voter: Gets little coverage but GB News ( Mark Steyn Show ) did an article last evening. The petition to parliament no 614335 is also still running, with 151.000+ signatures last time I looked. Our government has now recorded its response to that petition on May 27th if not seen already but has not set any date for any debate. Link: https://petition.parliament.UK/petitions/614335
During the recent WHO Assembly in Geneva, it seems the hoped for total agreement from all nations was dashed as the 47 strong African delegation speaker from Botswana called for full respect for sovereignty of member states, raised concerns & made plain nations should not be rushed into the 2024 new Pandemic Treaty, considered by many as authoritarian. There are many reasons it may be a bad idea.
May 31, 2022
‘The UK is considering guaranteeing at least $1 billion of South African debt as part of a deal designed to cut the nation’s reliance on coal and drive a shift to green energy.’ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-31/uk-weighs-1-billion-guarantee-for-south-africa-shift-from-coal?fbclid=IwAR1yCsz6tM2P9QWM9ia9FXJFFHMmLE6PwK1HvX74drndRx35oahaAPKwC-Q
What cost of living crisis ?
May 31, 2022
I see that Ms Leadsom, previously a confident Leaver, has spoken today against Mr Johnson. Perhaps her version of Brexit might have been rather more successful than his has been.
May 31, 2022
The PM must be delighted that the BBC is still putting partygate as their most important news item instead of massive inflation, massive legal and illegal immigration, massive energy price rises, massive problems in the NHS, massive Government spending and waste and of course the war in Ukraine.
June 1, 2022
Also inflation also impacts pensioners who shamefully do not get there pension uprated to those in the UK, EU etc.
Given inflation is legalized theft or tax by HMG /BOE, against all but particularly non-working retired and perhaps infirm. Almost guaranteed to speed them on to the other side.
Multiple billions for other causes, fraud and waste.
June 1, 2022
The current state pension for those paying in NI for 35 years is £9339.20 per annum.
The NLW for people over 23 doing 37.5 hours per week is £18525.00 per annum
The Nest pension over 40 years on an average wage of £20,000 (at today’s rate) + increments will expect about an extra £6000-£6500. So a gross pension of £15,500 pa.
People who don’t save at all can get housing benefit and pension credits so on reflection the lowest paid would be better off not saving at all. The rewards for a lifetime of saving because you don’t get a safe final salary pension is that you get nothing.