Treasury grossly inflates debt interest

The Treasury forecast for debt interest this year is Ā£83bn, up from Ā£23.5bn in 2021-21.Ā  Trying to scare us all, they do not spin out their forecast of debt interest for 2024-5 as they see it tumbling to Ā£ 46.7bn, a fall of 44% from this year’s estimated number.

They chose to count oranges and apples in their figure. They add to the actual debt interest paid out to savers who hold government bonds the amount by which index linked bonds increase in capital value on eventual repayment. No cash passes to the bond holder alongside the regular interest payments. On repayment of the bond at the enhanced value the government usually rolls over the debt and borrows the new amount. What matters when drawing up the annual budget is the cash cost of paying the interest on the debt,Ā  not the eventual capital repayment value of indexed debt.If this matters the government should also credit itself with the fact that the bulk of the debt will be repaid in devalued pounds, a large real saving at current inflation rates.

 

Strange on their own figures the Treasury do not want to spread the great news debt interest is about to fall off a cliff next year. Why are they playing these games? They seem determined to sandbag the U.K. economy with big tax rises at the same time as the Bank of England sticks up interest rates and the inflation that have created slashes real incomes. They clearly want no growth or a recession.

140 Comments

  1. Mark B
    June 11, 2022

    Good morning.

    With a population increase of over 10 million (legal and illegals), and taxes at an all time high, why is the government still running out of money ? Why can it not live within its means ? Why, despite all the extra cash, are my roads still full of potholes and services so bad ?

    And why do not more people, especially politicians, ask there and other searching questions ?

    1. Lifelogic
      June 11, 2022

      Indeed the reason is most of the money government spend is totally wasted – HS2, the mad net zero religion, the appallingly poor NHS, the soft loans for pointless degrees, the subsidies for renewables, the vast costs of the open borders to illegal immigration, the appalling do nothing police service, the woke lunacyā€¦

      About 50% of people pay far less in taxes than they get back in immediate benefits carried by the other 50% many of whom are leaving or choosing to work less.

      1. Ed M
        June 11, 2022

        There is a big discrepancy between the North and South in this country. I went north for the first time a few years ago, and I was just surprised / shocked by what I encountered. It was like travelling into a different county. Even the people distinctly different to those down south.

    2. Nottingham Lad Himself
      June 11, 2022

      Well, in lawless Britain crime is realistically calculated to cost upwards of 7% of GDP.

      However, you’d rather that the electorate fretted over getting English sausages into NI and suchlike, it seems.

      1. a-tracy
        June 11, 2022

        Stopping the United Kingdom single market trade with each other NLH isnā€™t just a few sausages as you well know. If it was such a small matter the EU wouldnā€™t be so determined over it, there would simply be a set of high charges for any exporting goods outside of the UK single market into the EU and there is nothing the EU like better than to fine people for that. So fine the criminals not the rest of your fellow citizens in the UK who are just trying to get on with their business.

        Also ā€˜lawless Britainā€™ Since the mid-1990s, there have been long-term falls in overall Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) crime estimates when excluding fraud and computer misuse (Figure 1). In the year ending December 2021, crime excluding fraud and computer misuse decreased by 13% compared with the year ending December 2019. Source ONS

      2. Peter2
        June 11, 2022

        Ridiculous whataboutery comment from you NHL
        The article is about Treasury policies and debt.
        LL gave some decent examples of excessive spending.

      3. Mickey Taking
        June 11, 2022

        yes MARTIN, you see Mafia control on every high street, don’t you!

      4. Lifelogic
        June 11, 2022

        7% and more would not surprise me at all. This as the police, politicians and the criminal justice system seem to have no interest in tackling or deterring real crimes. Quite the reverse in fact.

    3. glen cullen
      June 11, 2022

      Billions to the UN, EU, Foreign Aid and the billions on Qangos…..and billions on HS2
      They’re spending it quicker than they can print it (tax it)

      1. Everhopeful
        June 11, 2022

        +1
        Ink still wet!
        I just saw a comment in a newspaper.
        It suggested that Boris only won in 2019 because of Cummings who masterminded the election.
        Maybe the tories should bring him back?
        At least we might get some more incredibly funny Spitting Images!

  2. Everhopeful
    June 11, 2022

    They must still be playing that old game ā€œProject Fearā€.
    What an incredibly nasty lot.

    1. glen cullen
      June 11, 2022

      ā€˜ā€™I think there are two ways in which people are controlled. First of all frighten the people and secondly, demoralise them.ā€ Tony Benn

  3. Sarah
    June 11, 2022

    No growth or a recession would be perfect for Boris Johnson’s green agenda!

    Sarah

    1. Ian Wragg
      June 11, 2022

      On the ball, depress consumption and it’s all part of the net zero.
      Remove vast amounts of money from the population and demand drops except that Importing a million bodies annually cancels our any savings.
      Rishi will only reduce taxes at gunpoint.

    2. Original Richard
      June 11, 2022

      Sarah :

      Absolutely correct.

      Expensive fossil fuels is the beginning of the ā€œNet Zero Strategy : Build Back Greenerā€ plan.

      Even more dangerous to our security than a recession is the civil service led Governmentā€™s plan to electrify our transport, heating, industry and agriculture.

      Our intermittent and expensive electricity will be generated by wind turbines and solar panels almost 100% supplied by China. The plan is for us to cut our total energy usage by half despite an expected increase in population size of 10m by 2050.

      The raw materials, and most of the critical components for batteries and motors, will be in the control of China.

      All our major industries will all have gone to China and India.

      All to ā€œsave the planetā€ by zeroing our 1% contribution to global man-made CO2 emissions whilst India and China have recently announced plans to increase coal production so that between them they will be burning 5.6bn tons of coal each year.

      1. glen cullen
        June 11, 2022

        All just to make Boris look good in the eyes of the UN, WEF etc

  4. Nigl
    June 11, 2022

    Ask Sunak nominally in charge. I wonder whether he truly understands and can lead or merely a mouthpiece told what to agree, say and do by his Civil Serpents.

    1. MFD
      June 11, 2022

      Got it in one! NIGL.

  5. DOM
    June 11, 2022

    The problem is now beyond solvable. The fascist left are in control both here and in the US

    Your party must admit its guilt in pandering to such political forces. It should change its name from the Conservative Party to something far more applicable. How about the Socialist Movement for Britain or The Progressive Front? Or maybe the Democrat Party? You have far more in common with the left and their vile agenda to destroy our world.

    The only reason you’re in government is because you like scum Labour and the fascist SNP throw someone elses cash at voters once every five years to literally buy their vote

    Thatcher did not come to power on a free-lunch ticket so it is possible to gain office by appealing to other values

    I see bigotry, zealot and threats of violence has once more won the day for those who seek to destroy our most important freedoms. The silence from the authorities and politicians is deeply troubling indeed. Why do we even elect politicians?

    1. Bloke
      June 11, 2022

      Dom:
      The custard pies you splat at the Govt should not side-splash on the Diary Author who pursues quality solutions for us all.

      1. Clough
        June 11, 2022

        I agree that our host does try to get alternative ideas to current government policy on the Conservative party’s radar. However, the fact is that, as Conservative candidate in Wokingham at the 2019 election, he endorsed the following manifesto commitments (among others):

        ‘Extra funding for the NHS, with 50,000 more nurses and 50 million more GP surgery appointments a year.
        ‘An Australian-style points-based system to control immigration.
        ‘Reaching Net Zero by 2050 with investment in clean energy solutions and green infrastructure to reduce carbon emissions and pollution.
        ‘We will not raise the rate of income tax, VAT or National Insurance.’

        His party’s programme hasn’t been delivered, except of course on the globalists’ favourite net zero agenda. Dom is right to be angry. And I am angry that other Tory MPs have had even less to say about the party’s failure in government to do what it said it would do, and its persistence in very often doing the opposite.

      2. MFD
        June 11, 2022

        I second that. Bloke

    2. The Prangwizard
      June 11, 2022

      In the broadcast media, particularly the BBC and Sky News, when references are made to freemarket or similar views they are increasingly called ‘right wing’ by them. They clearly consider leftist solutions as normal and correct, as they don’t mention ‘left wing’, unless it is some extreme. By labelling freemarket views as ‘right wing’ they want it to be considered extreme.

      1. Everhopeful
        June 11, 2022

        The next stage is to criminalise all right wing politics.
        And they will try.

        1. Lifelogic
          June 11, 2022

          Certainly the BBC have already virtually eliminated it – certainly from Question time, Any Questions, political and news programmes, Newsnight, The Papersā€¦

          1. Everhopeful
            June 11, 2022

            +1
            Yes, very true.
            And very scary when you consider the anti Right wing narrative in the USā€¦and we generally follow.

          2. Philip P.
            June 11, 2022

            Anyone watching the BBC is simply making things worse by boosting their audience figures, and so helping them to justify their licence fee. There are far better news channels to watch, GB News for home news, and a huge range of free media that report international news. Personally, I like to find alternative news channels and suggest them to people I know. This will at the very least lead to staff reductions at Portland Place, if enough people follow it and their customer base shrinks massively. Watching the BBC while moaning about its bias achieves nothing in my view.

      2. glen cullen
        June 11, 2022

        And the governments minister for media & culture does nothing to curtail this bias
        …and by doing nothing they’re supporting it

    3. Wanderer
      June 11, 2022

      It is deeply troubling Dom. A decent world, albeit with some flaws, is fast disappearing. We’re watching powerlessly as the last grains of sand fall out of the hourglass.

      Quite a number of people are trying to fight back, but with the left/WEF/blob (or whatever one calls it) having taken over virtually all institutions including education, plus MSM and the Internet, it’s an uphill struggle. Our host is doing his bit against the odds.

      I also don’t think elections are going to fundamentally change anything. America usually leads the way. I think the tide may turn when a heavily-armed population there is pushed too far, too fast by an overconfident elite.

    4. MWB
      June 11, 2022

      The so called Conservative party should rename itself. Let’s see, what would be a good name…. I’ve got it !
      New Labour.
      Blair would be a perfect shoe-in as leader.

      1. Barbara
        June 11, 2022

        We have basically had Continuity Blair for twenty-five years.

      2. Lifelogic
        June 11, 2022

        This the disastrous Blair who was PM for ten years but did at all nothing positive at all that I can find.

        He gave us counterproductive, disastrous, pointless and losing wars – one on a lie, the hugely harmful botched devolution, ever more government and more EU, ever more taxation and red tape, ever more open door, low skilled and low waged immigration, the human ā€œrightsā€ agenda, woke lunacy everywhere, dire public services, hundreds of thousands of worthless degrees and the insane climate change act agenda.

        Indeed with the exception of the EU and the counterproductive wars this Boris/Sunak government is almost identical.

    5. Ed M
      June 11, 2022

      The problem isn’t politics, ultimately, but ultimately culture. Our country has more-a-less turned its back on the Order, Beauty and Mystery of our Judaeo-Christian and the best of our Greco-Roman heritage – that gave us the Renaissance, Oxford, Cambridge, Parliament, Guilds, Work Ethic, Sense of Personal Responsibility, Love of Family and Country, True sense of Masculinity in Men and Femininity in Women, Salisbury Cathedral and all the other medieval Cathedrals, beautiful medieval churches, Bath City, Shakespeare, Handel, all those beautiful paintings in the National Gallery, great scientists such as Sir Isaac Newton (biblical scholar), and so on.

      It’s a heresy to think politics can ultimately solve all the great problems of our ‘civilisation.’ Civilisation goes much deeper than politics (although politics is key too). It also involves Education, The Arts, Media, Religion / Philosophy / Psychology and so on.

      What I say is not novel or revolutionary. It’s the kind of thing a good, old Conservative such as Edmund Burke would say.

    6. Peter Parsons
      June 11, 2022

      Thatcher came to power on a policy of right to buy council houses at below market value. That’s as much a free lunch policy as any.

      1. Ed M
        June 12, 2022

        Mrs Thatcher’s policy was all about encouraging young people (and others) to be able to buy their own ‘castle’ (even the smallest, cheapest humble abode is a ‘castle’ to a married couple where the husband and wife are ‘king’ and ‘queen- really, we need to get back this sense of dignity about people whether you really are the Queen / Prince Charles or a humble postman and his wife. The State takes away from people’s dignity).

        Sure, we still have to help the vulnerable. And there is a housing crisis today. But there’s a housing crisis all over the Western World. No reason to be complacent. But I urge the brains behind politics today to please try and figure out a way to help young more people buy their own ‘castles’ today.

  6. Philip P.
    June 11, 2022

    Hard to imagine why the Treasury would be doing as you say, Sir John. Why would they be trying to tell the country that the current economic system is effectively bust?

    Sometimes a Freudian slip lets the truth out of the bag, as when George Bush Jr talked about the ‘wholly unjustified, brutal invasion of Iraq, I mean, Ukraine’. Did you hear Johnson say earlier in the week about ’emerging from this economy’, then correcting himself to ‘things will get better, that we will emerge from this a strong country with a healthy economy’? What if he meant what he said first time, I wonder?

    1. Sarah
      June 11, 2022

      “Emerging from this economy” sounds like a reference to the fossil fuelled economy and transitioning to a low carbon economy.

      The World Economic Forum is very enthusiastic about that agenda and COP 26 was based on exactly that way of thinking.

      Back to the Stone Age with Johnson!

      Sarah

      1. Everhopeful
        June 11, 2022

        Or as Trump said in answer to Clinton mocking coal workersā€¦
        ā€œWhen we talk about ā€œelectric carsā€, hey guys, theyā€™re coal-powered cars,ā€

  7. Lifelogic
    June 11, 2022

    Indeed.

    It would of course be rather better were the taxes being spent wisely rather than wasted as they largely are be Sunak. The best way to ensure this would be not to take the taxes off the people and businesses who earned the money in the fist place.

  8. alan jutson
    June 11, 2022

    Thanks for your explanation JR, but it is difficult to believe any Government figures over the last few years, be it debt, covid, waiting lists, exam results, university standards, economy, unemployment, employment, inflation, as none of them seem to bear any relationship to what I and others see what is going on.
    Taxation take up 21% this year, but we are still told the Government is short of money.

    1. a-tracy
      June 11, 2022

      Alan, I agree with you. We are seizing up because people have effectively been told to batten down the hatches, a winter of discontent is on its way to effectively change the regime. The EU needs our Ā£8bn soon to be Ā£13bn (membership fee and RoW 80% import vat back). It seems Boris and Sunak want to go along with this.

    2. MWB
      June 11, 2022

      I’m not surprised that the government is short of money.
      So would I be, if I was buying up all the 4 star hotel rooms, and providing free everything to the 3rd world invaders.

      1. Mickey Taking
        June 11, 2022

        just when we need tourists…

      2. Lifelogic
        June 11, 2022

        Nor me especially with their vastly expensive and mad net zero lunacy on top of this!

      3. glen cullen
        June 11, 2022

        Donā€™t forget the ā€˜emptyā€™ charted flights flying to Rwanda

  9. Nigl
    June 11, 2022

    Charles Moore in the DT has an excellent balanced piece on Boris and the wider context of challenges to his premiership, political pragmatism and other (weak) world leaders.

    We underestimate (guilty as charged) his achievement in getting Brexit done and again (guilty) were disappointed at what seemed to be the weaknesses in the deal.

    The telling criticism for me was his reluctance to confront vested interest and I guess that goes as much for his cabinet ministers as the broader elite blob, hence the Treasury doing their own thing.

    His No 10 operation needs toughening up, hard men and woman prepared to fight. That was one of Thatchers redeeming features, voters liked the way she stood up for them.

    No one today is standing up for us, the whole political spectrum is viewed as looking after themselves, we are once a term, voting fodder, hence the apathy and contempt from the general public.

    1. Peter
      June 11, 2022

      Nig1,

      Johnsonā€™s only achievement was getting himself elected as Prime Minister with a false manifesto that he ignored once in office. As Prime Minister he is looking to please the WEF not the electorate who he has abandoned.

      He did not get Brexit done. He rushed a fudge of a bill through parliament over the holiday period with no proper time allowed for discussion. On the basis of this fudge he claims to have delivered Brexit. To add insult to injury, Team Boris are now using a ā€˜fear of losing what was never fully deliveredā€™ as a reason to prop him up in power.

      He just needs to go/be forced out. Other issues can be addressed once that has happened.

    2. Lifelogic
      June 11, 2022

      Indeed but look at the dire list of alternative – Jeremy Hunt is the favourite – Terresa May in trousers equally dim, similarly misguided in every way and with even less charisma and electoral appeal.

      1. Peter
        June 11, 2022

        Ll,

        Just get rid of Johnson. Donā€™t presume who his successor will be.

        1. Mickey Taking
          June 12, 2022

          sounds right to me !

      2. Original Richard
        June 11, 2022

        Wanderer : ā€œI also donā€™t think elections are going to fundamentally change anything.ā€

        Unfortunately I think youā€™re right. All the parties select groupthink/blob candidates with very similar education, experience and views and even an 8o seat majority doesnā€™t bring about the legislation necessary to implement the promises made at election time. In fact, the civil service led government even deliberately uses vast amounts of taxpayer money to fund organisations and lawyers in the hope of preventing their election promises from being implemented.

        As Brexit showed, the only way today that a majority view can be implemented is through a referendum, and after Brexit the likelihood of another referendum, such as on Net Zero or on immigration, is going to be very difficult to achieve.

      3. Original Richard
        June 11, 2022

        Lifelogic :

        Jeremy Hunt seems like he is a UK version of the Manchurian Candidate.

        1. Qubus
          June 12, 2022

          Looking at our Conservative politicians, I think that the Oxford PPE course should be shut down.

  10. Sharon
    June 11, 2022

    It would seem the conspiracy theorists are correctā€¦ there needs an economic collapse, to enable ā€˜building back ā€˜betterā€™ā€™!

    Can we not stop them? Surely there must be something that can be done? I feel as though weā€™re watching a slow motion train crash where a wrecking ball is being thrown repeatedly at it.

    1. Donna
      June 11, 2022

      I doubt we can stop it, but we can certainly make life difficult. Start by using cash again and slow down the imposition of a cashless society.

      1. glen cullen
        June 11, 2022

        Agree

    2. glen cullen
      June 11, 2022

      ”Gove MP blocks Shale Gas Project Because Of ā€œFenceā€ The Government has refused planning permission over concerns about plans to construct a three-metre fence around the well to reduce noise from drilling on the site. Department for Levelling Up cited Mr Goveā€™s concern the structure would impact the “openness” of the Green Belt ”
      PATHETIC
      https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/

      1. Everhopeful
        June 11, 2022

        +1
        From the people who are gagging to build on the green belt!

      2. glen cullen
        June 11, 2022

        Move details in the link below, interesting that Gove stopped 2 fracking projects…and an interesting insight into this governments energy plans – worth a quick read
        https://drillordrop.com/2022/06/07/breaking-government-blocks-two-shale-gas-schemes-but-backs-exploration-in-surrey/

      3. Mark
        June 12, 2022

        Gove was the first minister anywhere in the world to announce a ban on the sale of ICE vehicles, and with an extremely short deadline, and no prior debate in Parliament, let alone the country. He has just backed up his ultra green position by refusing permission to drill exploration and appraisal wells in Yorkshire and Cheshire, personally intervening over the recommendations of the planning inspectors that they should go ahead, and using the flimsiest of trumped up excuses in complete misjudgement.

        He wants us to be cold, poor, without transport and hungry. He is not fit to be a minister.

  11. turboterrier
    June 11, 2022

    The more we stagger along like the drunk trying to find his way home one has to ask the question : Is there any government department actually fit for purpose?
    There is something strategically wrong in the way this country is governed and managed. We have totally lost the plot.
    With a near 80 majority, all the so called barriers blamed on our present situation should have been removed and the direction we were promised should be opening up. Who is actually running this country?

    1. MWB
      June 11, 2022

      Yes, the UK has completely lost the plot, and it’s mainly the fault of the largely stupid electorate.
      People turn out in their millions to support a so called royal family, thus perpetuating the snobbery and division that pervade the UK, especially England. We need an elected non-executive president and an elected upper house, neither of which are in prospect. We also need some form of proportional representation.

      1. Shirley M
        June 11, 2022

        You mean someone like Blair, Macron or Biden. No thank you. We do need to reduce the size of the monarchy, and we desperately need a gag for Charles and William though. They have to keep out of preaching and politics, or lose their royal positions and join Harry in the USA.

        1. MWB
          June 11, 2022

          No I don’t mean like Macrton or Biden. I said a NON EXECUTIVE PRESIDENT.

        2. miami.mode
          June 11, 2022

          Shirley, reduce the size of the monarchy!…..what, like, er, a bit of castration or something?

          1. Mickey Taking
            June 12, 2022

            Madame la Guillotine?

      2. Nottingham Lad Himself
        June 12, 2022

        Yes, that electorate that voted Leave, and repeatedly Tory.

        Well said.

  12. Donna
    June 11, 2022

    Perhaps it’s so Johnson and Sunak can declare an outstanding reduction in Government debt and tax cuts a few months before he intends calling a General Election (assuming they’re still PM and Chancellor)?

    Or perhaps it’s going to be the justification for the destruction of our current financial system so they can “build back better” and impose a cashless society and social credit system?

    Whichever, or whatever, is the reason – it’s not being done in OUR interests (by OUR I mean the British people).

  13. majorfrustration
    June 11, 2022

    Why do the Treasury……..? Perhaps its because there are so many financial thickos at Westminster

    1. X-Tory
      June 11, 2022

      The Treasury does what it is either told or allowed to do by the Chancellor. THAT’S where the blame really lies: with the useless and stupid Rishi Sunak. Sir John Redwood’s regular criticisms are spot on, EXCEPT that they focus on the wrong target. He needs to stop being so meek and loyal and start to call the Chancellor out for the moronic failure that he is. Sir John is a senior figure universally acclaimed for his understanding of economics. If he were to publicly declare ‘no confidence’ in the Chancellor that would have a huge effect, and might even get policy on the right track. Veiled criticisms whispered on this blog will be neither heard nor heeded by the government.

  14. Richard1
    June 11, 2022

    When you say ā€˜the treasuryā€™ it would be perfectly possible for ministers to over-rule this. Even if officials insisted under some legal mechanism in using these misleading data, mr Sunak could give a speech making clear the numbers are contrived BS which would never apply in another context. He doesnā€™t and neither do other ministers so we must assume they agree with this approach. They seem to have a political death-wish.

  15. Shirley M
    June 11, 2022

    Why are so many politicians UK haters? They must be, to do what they are doing to our once great country. They cannot bring it down quickly enough and go out of their way to wreak more havoc.

    ps. the NHS and ambulance service is still neglecting their patients in a very serious manner. Packing millions more people in without increasing the availability of services tends to overwhelm those services, but who cares? Obviously the government does not. Immigration first last, and inbetween despite the fraudulent promises to reduce immigration. Where are all those extra nurses and hospitals Boris promised? Another fraudulent promise? We, the electorate, need legal recourse against lying politicians otherwise the manifesto’s and their campaigns could claim anything, even when they have no intentions of meeting those promises. Politicians can lie with impunity, because they look after their own, even the dishonest frauds as we saw recently and the electorate has very little importance. We are just the cash cows to be defrauded, manipulated, and ‘kept in our place’.

    1. Dave Andrews
      June 11, 2022

      I agree with you about UK politicians hating their own country.
      The BBC had Mandelson on the other day; he sounded just like ….

  16. Bloke
    June 11, 2022

    The Treasury imposes tax demands on the people it exists to serve.
    The Treasury makes vast complex rules obstructing people.
    The Treasury punishes those who do not comply, with imprisonment.
    The Treasury mismanages the money it has taken.
    Then, the Treasury misleads the people about its underlying intent.

    Should the Masterminds who control this racket be penalised themselves, and on what charge?

    Coercion?
    Extortion?
    DEMANDING MONEY WITH MENACES?

    ā€¦.. and if found Guilty, what punishment would you propose?

    1. Everhopeful
      June 11, 2022

      Oooā€¦.let me think šŸ¤”

      1. margaret brandreth-jones
        June 12, 2022

        And when you have thought about the best approach , what are you going to do about it?

  17. formula57
    June 11, 2022

    Surely the service cost of the debt is the cost of the total reward given its holders, whether that is in annual interest or in amounts in excess of the initial principal arising from applying indexation? Distinguishing how and when the different rewards are paid does not seem an appropriate reason for disregarding part of the true cost in calculating the annual accrual.

    I accept that Government accounting typically ignores balance sheet items to focus only on current year profit and loss: it explains in part why its financial management is so sub-optimal.

  18. Roy Grainger
    June 11, 2022

    I assume the Treasury officials and civil servants drawing up these scaremongering estimates actually do want a recession because it will lead to a Labour government and more job security and higher pay for themselves and as a bonus they can also blame the recession on Brexit. Just an idea, but it’s hard to explain otherwise.

  19. Brian Tomkinson
    June 11, 2022

    I must repeat that this is the worst government and House Of Commons in my lifetime and there have been many bad ones. We have a Conservative government without any Conservative policies. We are living in an elective dictatorship. Our democracy is being devalued and destroyed. Is this all part of the determination by the puppets in charge and their masters (not the British people) to abolish the nation state and have a world government? Are there no MPs prepared to publicly expose this for what it is and lead the opposition to it?

    1. Beecee
      June 11, 2022

      It may have something to do with the fact that people with gravitas have, with a few obvious exceptions, disappeared from politics. There are certainly none on the front benches of the main parties in the present House of Commons.

    2. Hat man
      June 11, 2022

      I think there are rather few MPs that even understand the point you’re making, Brian. Perhaps it goes beyond the Job Description required of a parliamentary candidate to have a grasp of geopolitical issues. It would perhaps come as news to most of them that to benefit from the rule of law requires us to be in the jurisdiction of a sovereign state. So they let the attack on the nation state go on. Not many have expressed concerns about the planned WHO treaty, for example.

  20. Mickey Taking
    June 11, 2022

    the Plan(?) to bring UK economy to its knees, cause upheaval in employment, housing, health, education and justice is going full steam ahead. The GE can’t come soon enough to elect plain speaking honest socialism/marxism – so we will know where we stand.

    1. a-tracy
      June 11, 2022

      MT add to that travel: passports – people now all fast-tracking and jumping the queue of the people that were already in the system, driving licence delays reducing mobility and freedom. Add to that probate problems, nearly 12 months wait with an undisputed small estate lodged by a solicitor with a will! Home just sat empty now for 18 months sale fallen through, two of the beneficiaries have died. They say theyā€™re desperate for housing but how many are just caught up in the government monopoly systems? People working from home are more productive – pwfh.

      1. Wanderer
        June 11, 2022

        Yes, why is probate taking so long? I know others with this problem, with uncontested solicitor-lodged applications. Houses that could be on the property market lying empty.

    2. glen cullen
      June 11, 2022

      I take it youā€™re talking about the Raving Monster Loony Party

      1. Mickey Taking
        June 11, 2022

        Why not? I voted for Him (them) before. Could they do worse?

        1. glen cullen
          June 11, 2022

          They might do better

    3. Original Richard
      June 11, 2022

      Mickey Taking :

      The problem is that all the parties appear to have the same policies!

      When all parties have the same policy on a major issue, such as with Net Zero, then the only way we can call ourselves to a democratic nation is by Parliament allowing a referendum on these issues, such as we had with EU membership.

  21. Lindsay McDougall
    June 11, 2022

    I remember that, in the late 80s / early 90s, we made use of the fact that we had a public sector net repayment rather than a borrowing requirement, paying off our creditors in what turned out later to be clipped coinage. We weren’t too popular with our creditors then. No doubt, the Chancellor doesn’t want to be perceived to repeating this trick.

  22. Christine
    June 11, 2022

    Project fear never went away. It continues with its relentless drive to keep us aligned with the EU in the hope that people will blame Brexit for the woes this country is facing. I can’t think of one policy this government has introduced to improve the lives of tax-paying British people. Why people switch their vote to Labour is beyond me as all the main political parties seem to have the same economic destroying agenda. We are being controlled by globalists, there is no other explanation I can think of.

  23. Lifelogic
    June 11, 2022

    So Charles says he thinks the Ruanda scheme is appalling. What part of stay out of politics does this deluded climate alarmist, wrong headed fool not understand?

    Let us hope the Queen out lives him but then the silly Prince William is making exactly the same errors – especially on Climate Alarmism.

    1. oldwulf
      June 11, 2022

      @Lifelogic
      Yep .. The Queen has made an effort not to upset her people and has successfully reigned for a very long time. Charles and William run the risk of dividing the Nation – not a good idea for a Monarch.

    2. Donna
      June 11, 2022

      Charles should have had it spelled out to him several decades ago that if he continued to voice political opinions, his status as Heir would be forfeit.
      It’s too late to shut the silly fool up now. The day he ascends the throne is the day I will become a republican.

    3. a-tracy
      June 11, 2022

      Lifelogic – you are just one side of the green argument, there are plenty of conservatives that agree with Boris and think he should go further on green changes (Iā€™m not one of them) but just in case youā€™re not aware here is a comment from a conservative chap called Trisitain on ConHome ā€˜I was in Tiverton and Honiton yesterday and spoke to (among others) an employee of the Environment Agency, responsible for Flood Control from Kent, round the south and west coast up to Scotland. He told me he usually votes Conservative but is considering voting Lib Dem – I think he probably will. He knows climate change is a threat – his job has to deal with it. He wanted to know what Government is doing about it. It is pretty hard to defend a Party that thinks his job is ” a load of green lefty-twatory” and I didn’t try.ā€™

      These people actually think Boris is doing nothing about climate change LOL. That means the Tories are punishing people for the green agenda but not actually getting over just how much they are doing with their extra green taxes, charges on everything that moves that goes towards windmills and other schemes, how much does the government spend on university research alone on green issues and what does it return to the exchequer? They are misfiring on both fronts, you think they are doing to much for very little reward and others think he is doing nothing. This is down to poor communication and spending choices from Borisā€™ government.

      1. Original Richard
        June 11, 2022

        a-tracy : “This is down to poor communication and spending choices from Borisā€™ government.”

        It’s not poor communication at all. It’s because the civil service led government wants to stealthily implement Net Zero because it knows if it tells the truth the electorate will not vote for it just as turkeys don’t vote for Xmas.

        Who wants to vote to make themselves poorer with expensive and intermittent energy and the rationing of energy, food and travel just to save the planet from our 1% contribution to global man-made CO2 emissions whilst China and India burn 5.6bn tons of coal each year?

        1. a-tracy
          June 12, 2022

          The Green Party voters perhaps – , the Green Party has achieved a significant gain in vote share, with over 850000 voters backing its bold policies for transformative change.

          The UK gov is insulating you wouldnā€™t know it from the protestors ā€˜Around 3.1 million measures have been installed in around 2.3 million properties through ECO and under the GD framework to the end of December 2020. Around 3.0 million of these installed measures (97 per cent) were delivered through ECO.ā€™ From 2013 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/970064/Detailed_Release_-_HEE_stats_18_Mar_2021_FINAL.pdf

          The UK now appears to be minority rule, minority groups are getting a disproportionate say, especially if the minority groups is organised and based around London and protest loudly! Statistics are used in a very manipulative way ie. The railway unions claim use is at 90% of pre pandemic levels what they dont say is that is just for a couple of peak holiday days, the rest are down at least 20% and often on lots of commuter routes much less. Letā€™s not forget its not the government that pays these workers it is taxpayers, there is only one place to get their extra wages from and its the 50% who donā€™t use railways at all.

    4. Dave Andrews
      June 11, 2022

      Here’s another scheme idea – Charles can put up loads of asylum seekers at Clarence House. It would save the Treasury quite a bit in hotel bills.

      1. Qubus
        June 12, 2022

        I would imagine that they would feel at home there.

    5. Mickey Taking
      June 11, 2022

      William is doing his bit, selling Big Issues, to fund the Royal Purse.

  24. Dave Andrews
    June 11, 2022

    Perhaps John, with all this funny money floating around, the people at the Treasury are all confused. Sorting through it all requires good brains, and perhaps the Treasury are finding those hard to come by, just as we do in the private sector.
    There was a time when following a profession required dedication, discipline and hard work. This is not for the modern generation, where things have to be dumbed down as students demand an easier life.

  25. IanT
    June 11, 2022

    I’ve just taken delivery of my new (ICE) car – having obtained a very good discount on the RRP and an even better trade-in on my (7yr old) car, which I also purchased from new. Current fuel prices will undoubtedly drive more drivers to EVs and I seem to be seeing lots of Tesla’s on the road these days. I wonder if the charging network will manage to keep up with demand? I also wonder how long before the Treasury decide we’ve all been ‘converted’ to EVs and start to tax them more than they do today. They will certainly be missing all that ICE road & fuel duty.

    One of my sons now drives a hybrid that seems to offer much better mileage but weighs 450 kilos more than my (similar sized) car and costs a lot more too. Weight matters because it takes energy to drag it up and down hills and cost is important because that extra Ā£7-10k will fill my tank (even at these prices) for a good long while.
    Volvo recently published a ‘like-for-like’ comparison of the carbon required to build one of their models – using either ICE or EV power. The EV generated more up-front manufacturing carbon (because of the batteries I guess) and the carbon ‘payback’ depends on the mix of mains electricity (% coal, gas, wind etc) but in UK I think it’s about 52K miles before you break even. I’ve owned two ICE cars from new over the past 20 years, driving some 160K in that time, although my mileage has dropped in retirement. I will likely keep this new car at least another 7 years, possibly longer at my age and it might take me another 10 years to drive that 52K these days.

    So it’s interesting to compare my carbon ICE footprint to someone who leases an EV (say) every 3-4 years and drives about the same mileage. I think my carbon footprint is probably a good deal lower in totality.

    Love my new car by the way – it’s red and Italian – and (unlike Mr Toad) I don’t have to make engine noises when I drive it…

    1. glen cullen
      June 11, 2022

      The thing is, Iā€™d be happy to buy an ex lease ICE car thatā€™s 4 years old but extremely anxious about buying an ex lease EV car thatā€™s 4 years old ā€¦.without a new battery

  26. Lester_Cynic
    June 11, 2022

    Prince Charles

    The Rwanda plan is appalling, yet another reason why he should never be king

    Perhaps put a few up in Buck House?

    1. Shirley M
      June 11, 2022

      To be fair, it is appalling, but for different reasons than the human rights brigade keep quoting. The reason it is appalling is because it will cost a blooming fortune to pretend the government are doing something (if the government act true to form), and it will still cost a blooming fortune to keep the illegals in UK hotels, because very few will go to Rwanda and we’ll probably take more ‘vulnerables’ from Rwanda than get sent there!

      1. Diane
        June 12, 2022

        On the other hand, I believe the initial payment to Rwanda is around Ā£120 million. That amount in comparison covers the UK’s reported present daily hotel costs, that is hotel costs only, for migrants for just 24 days. This Ā£5m a day seems to have become the figure many now have in their minds as the UK’s daily overall expense to the taxpayer when in reality it is vastly more.

    2. miami.mode
      June 11, 2022

      L_C perhaps he doesn’t realise that the people he is siding with wish to abolish him and the monarchy.

      1. Original Richard
        June 11, 2022

        miami.mode

        And the people with whom Prince Charles is siding don’t realise that if immigration, legal or illegal, carries on at its present rate they too will be abolished together with our country.

  27. Enough Already
    June 11, 2022

    The sad truth is that you can’t trust anything told to you by any government department.

  28. Everhopeful
    June 11, 2022

    Can people who use over Ā£100 million of taxpayersā€™ money to fight yet another unwinnable proxy war possibly have any care for the economy?

  29. oldwulf
    June 11, 2022

    HM Treasury has form when it comes to dodgy figures. Some will remember Denis Healey, the Labour Chancellor in the 1970’s. In 1976, the UK went to the IMF for a loan. At the time it was the largest loan ever requested from the IMF. Only half the loan was drawn down and it was repaid by 1979. Healey blamed the pessimestic HM Treasury figures as the main reason for requesting the loan. Labour lost the Election in 1979 and Mrs Thatcher came into power.

    So ….. issues with HM treasury are not new.

    Even The Guardian is advocating change:
    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/may/16/the-big-idea-should-we-abolish-the-treasury

  30. X-Tory
    June 11, 2022

    Off-topic, but let me be the first to warn you of the next big government scandal and fiasco: The government has just issued a contract for 36 harbour support vessels (32 replacements and 4 new vessels) to service Ministry of Defence bases. These will be operated by private contractors under a ‘Government Owned Contractor Operated’ agreement and are expected to be ‘Commercial off the Shelf vessels’. All well and good, and the full value of the contract is a whopping Ā£595 million. BUT here’s the problem: the government says that it is up to the contractor to decide in which shipyard(s) the vessels will be built, fundamentally on the basis of ‘value for money’. In other words, basically, the lowest bidder will win the contract – and this is almost certainly going to be a foreign shipyard.

    The government is supposed to have a ‘National Shipbuilding Strategy’, recognising that our shipbuilding industry was allowed to be destroyed and now needs to be nurtured back into commercial health. But this won’t happen without orders!! It is a complete f*ck*ng disgrace that there is no obligation for these vessels to be built in the UK. Just wait till the public wake up to this and the sh*t hits the fan. Yeah, this is really going to increase the government’s support, isn’t it? Does Boris the Cretin and Traitor have a death wish? Can’t this government do ANYTHING right?

    1. anon
      June 12, 2022

      Certain nuclear reactors are closing as planned. Despite the energy situation and delays on other builds. This would of course lead us to more dependence on imported energy in the short term and add to dependence on large foreign some state controlled, energy companies.

      Perhaps UK nationalisation of these energy assets is required. Also extra transfer capacity to eliminate curtailment seems needed.

  31. BOF
    June 11, 2022

    It seems perfectly plain to me that this government fully intends to destroy the value of our currency. When that is achieved they can claim the only solution is a digital currency and full control of the people will have been achieved.

    Game over, for us!

    1. The Prangwizard
      June 11, 2022

      This ‘government’ has a leader, called Boris and his elitist and Tory clique. Don’t blame ‘the government’, blame Boris and his Tory supporters. He could do things to help but does not, because he does not wish to. He has no idea how an econpmy works and will never understand. He wants to destroy us and our society in order to turn us ‘green’ and make us subservient and poor.

      1. a-tracy
        June 12, 2022

        Prangwizard, yet Greenpeace, the Green Party, Insulate Britain, ā€˜Over 1,000 scientists from 25 different countries staged protests last week following the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s new report. The report warned that rapid and deep cuts to greenhouse gas emissions are necessary by 2025 to avoid catastrophic climate effects.ā€˜ Smithsonian; Extinction Rebellion – XR, Greta Thunburg and her gang; This eco anxiety is being whipped up in schools and into Students.

        The government should list everything they have done, much of which people on this blog thinks is too much and too punishing and print it our, put it all over the website, tell people the truth, because its not having the full facts that is killing them from both sides.

      2. Diane
        June 12, 2022

        I thought Ben Habib’s passionate comments on the GB News Mark Dolan Tonight show on Friday (10/6) hit the mark. (Discussion viewable on line ) Still joined at the hip to the EU and as far as Net Zero concerned, he emphasised that the Trade & Cooperation Agreement ties us to this ( & quoted Article 7.2, Paragraph 4, Page 202 on the TCA )

  32. Mark
    June 11, 2022

    In March the DMO commented

    The UKā€™s stock of index-linked debt stood at around Ā£493.2 billion at the end of 2021, making up 23.9% of the governmentā€™s debt portfolio.
    2.21 Issuing index-linked gilts has historically brought cost advantages for the government due to strong investor demand. Doing so has also built the UKā€™s financial resilience by supporting both the UKā€™s long average debt maturity and diversifying the investor base. Tying debt interest payments to RPI has historically helped to underscore the credibility of the governmentā€™s commitment to low and stable inflation, particularly during the period prior to central bank independence; however, the UKā€™s relatively large stock of
    index-linked debt also increases the sensitivity of the public finances to inflation shocks, as highlighted in the OBRā€™s 2017 ā€˜Fiscal risks reportā€™.
    At Budget 2018 ā€“ and as part of the governmentā€™s responsible approach to fiscal risk management ā€“ the government announced that it would look to reduce the proportion of annual index-linked gilt issuance in a measured fashion over the medium term, as a means of reducing its inflation exposure in the debt portfolio. It has been doing so since. In the five years prior to 2018-19, index-linked gilts accounted for around 25% of the governmentā€™s annual debt issuance, for which both the principal and coupon payments are indexed to RPI. Since then, the government has made progress towards reducing inflation exposure in relative terms. Index-linked gilt issuance has
    accounted for around 15% (unweighted) of annual gilt issuance over the last four years (including 2021-22), while the proportion of index-linked gilts in the debt stock has also fallen from 28.4% at the end of 2019 to 23.9% at the end of 2021.

    Suggests they have been planning more inflation to me.

  33. R.Grange
    June 11, 2022

    O/T but worth looking at for its novelty value. We all remember lockdown-loving Labour. What about this:

    ‘It will come as no surprise to those of us who warned that repeatedly locking down not just our country but the world, would have devastating economic effects on peopleā€™s lives and livelihoods. Lockdowns break our economy and exacerbate inequalities. We need to learn these lessons and never repeat the harmful and, for many, irreversible mistakes of repeatedly locking down every aspect of society. The damage is now very clear to see and will continue to impact for years to come’ … said Labour MP Emma Lewell-Buck, Vice-Chair of the Pandemic Response and Recovery All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG).

    What’s Starmer saying now, I wonder?

  34. Mark
    June 11, 2022

    In terms of the arithmetic it would clearly make more sense to look at the cash elements, divided between coupon payments (some of which may be index linked themselves, although typically those coupons are small), and redemptions which necessarily include inflation uplifts on indexed gilts and are part of the DMO remit sums.

    You could also look at the redemption and interest only yields across the gilt portfolio and estimate what it would cost to redeem and reissue the entire portfolio at current yields for the various maturities – in essence a mark to market of the entire portfolio. Currently most gilts trade above par thanks to ZIRP, but as inflation and bank rates rise many will trade at a discount and force higher coupons and redemption yields on new issues, particularly if it looks as though inflation is getting out of control. It may also prove more difficult to sell longer dated gilts.

    1. margaret brandreth-jones
      June 12, 2022

      Seems like green shield stamps to me Mark only we don.t benefit for the coupon and on redemption we lose again when interest rates go up.

  35. margaret
    June 11, 2022

    So in 2024 the debt interest will still be Ā£13 billion more than it was 2021. Capital assets may have increased in value, but this will be on paper only as the amount to be reborrowed would be the enhanced capital value BUT with the depreciation of the pounds value, the capital assets would also be less ? One day I may understand.
    So now I want to know how the wealth and power of trillionaires would benefit . It would depend on capital growth , by buying up defunct business and putting into a corporation or buying from those struggling to keep a good business afloat.

  36. glen cullen
    June 11, 2022

    Ā£1.89 today and this government still hasnā€™t call a cobra meeting

    1. Mark
      June 11, 2022

      $1.23 doesn’t help.

    2. Mickey Taking
      June 11, 2022

      Ā£2.48 in Central London. 1p more for Diesel.

  37. Mark Thomas
    June 11, 2022

    Sir John,
    As bad as things are or seem to be in this country, it is so much worse in the United States. They are now holding in Washington what can best be described as a show trial, covered live by almost all the news networks. If ever such an event is allowed to happen in Parliament then we are all facing a bleak future.

    1. Everhopeful
      June 11, 2022

      +1
      That news item really makes my blood run cold.
      Itā€™s back to Salem without a doubt!

    2. DOM
      June 11, 2022

      I believe US democracy is slowly being strangled from within until all threats are totally extinguished.

      I never thought I would see in my lifetime such evil, brutality and bigotry by those elected to represent the people….

      Blair and Obama (lawyers) have ripped the UK and US apart, deliberately

  38. e.d.
    June 11, 2022

    Three Observations:
    1. We would be better off if we were governed by actual real life clowns.
    2. The government is the enemy of the people
    3. The organic fertiliser is soon going to meet the air conditioning system

  39. turboterrier
    June 11, 2022

    The SS Great Britain is fast heading for the rocks made up out of:
    Net Zero, Cost of Living, Taxes, Green Energy and Fuel Costs, Illegal Immigration, Benefits System, Utilities Infrastructure, NHS, Education, Government Waste, No Clean break from EU, and Sheer Bloody Mindlessness not to change course.
    No Captain
    No Coxswain
    No Rudder
    No Engines
    No Damage Control

    The ship is going down, down ,down

    1. glen cullen
      June 11, 2022

      We do have a Captain and crewā€¦its just that theyā€™ve been drunk on potato wine for the last 2 years

    2. Mark
      June 11, 2022

      Is Sunak claiming to be pilot Ayres to Boris’ James, Duke of York, steering HMS Gloucester into a Norfolk sandbank? At least James was exiled after he failed at running the country in the Bloodless Revolution. Perhaps history will rhyme.

  40. Mark
    June 11, 2022

    The gilts due for redemption are (coupon/name, code, redemption date, issue date, dividend dates, next xd, Ā£m nominal)

    Ultra-Short
    0Ā½% Treasury Gilt 2022 GB00BD0PCK97 22-Jul-2022 03-Aug-2016 22 Jan/Jul 13-Jul-2022 29,260
    1Ā¾% Treasury Gilt 2022 GB00B7L9SL19 07-Sep-2022 22-Jun-2012 7 Mar/Sep 26-Aug-2022 29,682
    0 1/8% Treasury Gilt 2023 GB00BL68HG94 31-Jan-2023 08-Apr-2020 31 Jan/Jul 21-Jul-2022 33,824
    0Ā¾% Treasury Gilt 2023 GB00BF0HZ991 22-Jul-2023 20-Jul-2017 22 Jan/Jul 13-Jul-2022 34,036
    2Ā¼% Treasury Gilt 2023 GB00B7Z53659 07-Sep-2023 12-Jun-2013 7 Mar/Sep 26-Aug-2022 35,584

    which are all low coupon, issued in the ZIRP era, likely to be replaced by higher coupon new issues, so resulting in an increase in interest payments.

    The only indexed linked gilt due for redemption before 2024 is 1 7/8% Index-linked Treasury Gilt 2022, currently about Ā£25bn in inflated redemption and about Ā£469m in interest cost annually.

    I therefore presume that the Treasury are relying on a forecast sharp fall in inflation reducing the rate of inflation uplift in the redemption value of index linked gilts for their bogus interest calculation. Not sure I believe the implicit forecast.

  41. Everhopeful
    June 11, 2022

    Goodness gracious!
    High Court refused to grant injunction against first Rwanda flight on 14th June.
    Apparently it will actually go ahead!!
    Not that the scheme is idealā€¦butā€¦.
    ( Isnā€™t it racist for lefties to criticise Rwanda?).

    Less good newsā€¦..
    Sir Desmond Swayne has revealed the fact that the NHS is making preparations/plans for future lockdowns.

    1. glen cullen
      June 11, 2022

      If its good enough to send them to Rwanda its good enough to return them back to France

  42. glen cullen
    June 11, 2022

    Europe, the UK and the USA have embargo oil from Russiaā€¦.but thatā€™s just a trick, as Russia is selling its oil at a massive discount to other world nations, notably India who has been buying as much as possibleā€¦.and hereā€™s the kickerā€¦.selling it to Europe, bi-passing the embargo and making enormous profits
    https://www.informationliberation.com/?id=63128

    1. Mark
      June 12, 2022

      Just as well that oil gets into global supply by substitution . Otherwise we would not just have high pump prices, but empty pumps. Especially with the attitude of Mr. Gove, who has just refused permission for exploration and appraisal wells in Yorkshire and Cheshire on flimsy trumped up grounds. He wants us to be energy poor.

  43. XY
    June 12, 2022

    Presumably the remainer plot across the world is to slug the UK economy, keep it aligned to EU rules (even old ones, and this will slug the UK economy anyway) – so that the UK is not a success and they can point to Brexit as a failure.

    Unbelievable. In the past, they’d be in the Tower.

  44. XY
    June 12, 2022

    Oh and where’s the great non-dom Chancellor in all of this? Planning his next life in the USA or India?

    Working in a bank doesn’t make him an economist – as can be clearly seen. He’s “gone native”, believing everything the Treasury dish up to him.

    Get that job, Redwood!

  45. rose
    June 14, 2022

    “Glad to read more of our land will be used to grow food with less money for wilding.”

    Another success for Sir John’s back bench cabinet?

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