Memo to an incoming PM – it’s the economy stupid

The main advantage we must bring out of the leadership change is a change of economic policy. The outgoing Chancellor’s policy was to correct the inflation monetary policy has brought on by a treble squeeze. He wishes to add tax rises to the current monetary squeeze to the cost of living squeeze. It is time to drop the tax squeeze. This is not something the USA and the Euro area are doing even though they too dropped the ball on money growth and triggered rapid inflations. Japan and China have inflation at 2.5% despite high energy prices, showing monetary policy matters.

The incoming PM will be told by Treasury officials that there is no money to afford tax cuts. They will argue tax rises are needed to bring the deficit down more quickly. They are wrong on both counts. On their own arithmetic there is scope in their figures for budgets to cut taxes, as the faster growth of the economy than they forecast last year delivered a deficit ÂŁ100 bn lower than forecast. Nor will tax rises necessarily bring down the deficit more or at all. If the tax rises are too steep so they plunge us into recession, spending goes up and tax revenue down leading to a bigger deficit.

The new government should choose tax rates that maximise revenues, which in some cases means lower rates where tax is avoidable. It should act to offset the slowdown in the economy being brought on by the double squeeze, as only with growth will current public spending levels be affordable. Given the silly figures the Treasury uses for debt interest there is on their forecasts a  big fall in those over the next two years which gives more room for tax cuts.

The Treasury should also be reminded state borrowing if properly funded is not inflationary.The  state either takes money from the private sector as tax to lay its bills or as a long term loan. Either way the private sector has less money to spend and the state more. Printing money as Mr Sunak and the Bank did is usually inflationary. Only when there is huge shock as with first lockdown May it be necessary and not inflationary. A central bank allowing commercial banks to advance too much credit can be inflationary. Central Banks need to set interest rates and required capital rations to avoid this.

172 Comments

  1. Mark B
    July 24, 2022

    Good morning.

    The incoming PM will be told by Treasury officials that there is no money to afford tax cuts.

    To which the reply should be; ”How many people does the Treasury employ, and how many can we do without ?”
    There are of course other areas where savings for tax cuts can be made.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/statistics-on-international-development-final-uk-aid-spend-2020/statistics-on-international-development-final-uk-aid-spend-2020

    We cannot afford this largess.

    1. Lifelogic
      July 24, 2022

      Are there any area’s of government today that could not usefully save at least 50%. So much government activity actually does net positive harm. Start perhaps with those soft loans of circa ÂŁ50k + 7% interest for generally worthless degrees that we saddle many ofour youth with – let them learn on the job or day release/night school.

      1. Your comment is awaiting moderation
        July 24, 2022

        +1

    2. Nottingham Lad Himself
      July 24, 2022

      Just a point about the Civil Service.

      Land Registry – upon which the UK economy, that is, people buying and selling each other houses – depends now has a waiting list of over a year for certain applications to be processed.

      Tory cuts are such a wonderful thing.

      Incidentally, the headline is wrong. If it’s electoral advice to a Tory PM, then it should read “It’s the stupid, stupid”

      1. Donna
        July 24, 2022

        I suppose this has nothing to do with the fact that most of them are “working” from home.
        I have personal experience of working with Civil Service IT systems. Even when you’re in the office they are clunky, slow and one application won’t “talk” properly to another because they patch on patch on patch.

        Imagine how much worse it will be when the CS is “working” from home and probably at the end of a slow internet connection.

        Get them back in the office.

      2. Lifelogic
        July 24, 2022

        Could it not be that our “peerless civil servants” as Boris put it are actually just damn useless and do not give a damn?

        1. Nottingham Lad Himself
          July 24, 2022

          I had many dealings with HMLR before Tory rule.

          It was generally a return-of-post service in those days.

          1. Lifelogic
            July 24, 2022

            So why are they so useless now similar levels of transactions? “Working” from home perhaps? Over 6000 people working for them.

      3. Peter2
        July 24, 2022

        What cuts are these NHL?
        Because state spending in rising.

        Please explain why your claim of reduced budgets are definitely linked to increased delays.

        1. Bill brown
          July 25, 2022

          Peter 2
          The delays are predominant at HMRC for the moment

          1. Peter2
            July 25, 2022

            So I hear bill
            My question was….Why if spending is rising are service levels are worse.
            Neither you nor NHL have answered.

          2. Peter2
            July 25, 2022

            Not that I expected a civil answer from either of them.
            Data facts and statistics bill regularly demands of others.
            Yet when asked of him…he runs away every time.

    3. DavidJ
      July 24, 2022

      Indeed Mark; government costs us far too much and many of those employed seem to be working against our interests.

  2. Lifelogic
    July 24, 2022

    “He wishes to add tax rises to the current monetary squeeze to the cost of living squeeze” also the pointless & self inflicted damage done by the deluded net zero religion, the over regulation of everything and absurd tax complexity on top.

    You say:- “The new government should choose tax rates that maximise revenues, which in some cases means lower rates where tax is avoidable.”. Well in the long term we should of course aim for tax rates well below the maximum revenue or the Laffer point. They should be raising only sufficient tax for the government to do those very few things it can do better than individuals, governments or charities. These are law and order, defence and not very much more at all.

    We do not expect a manager of a block of flats to set the service charges at a level to maximise revenue. So that they charge as much as they can to maximise revenue before many go bust or abandon their flats and just cannot pay? You should just charge sufficient to fund the insurance, maintenance of the building, lifts and gardens.

    1. Dave Andrews
      July 24, 2022

      I would add basic education and healthcare to the list of things government should do; these shouldn’t be denied to people because they can’t afford them.
      Pensions not in your list – time to abolish the state pension and expect everyone to put by for their own old age, rather than squander every penny they earned and be a burden on the state?

      1. Margaretbj.
        July 24, 2022

        Rubbish.Do you remember what happened to all our private pensions.They don’t exist now!

        1. Your comment is awaiting moderation
          July 24, 2022

          Gordon Brown raided private pensions to pay for CS pensions.

        2. MWB
          July 24, 2022

          Yes, Gordon Brown trashed private workers pensions, although he didn’t touch the pensions of his public worker friends, including MPs. The so called Tories didn’t restore the tax credit.

      2. Lifelogic
        July 24, 2022

        But the state does not have to run education or healthcare too ensure all can access it? Would be far better if they did not. Have some voucher system for those who cannot pay. But with far lower taxes most could do.

    2. acorn
      July 24, 2022

      “Proponents of supply-side economics and trickle-down economics prove their theories using the Laffer Curve. This is a curve created by Arthur Laffer, who showed the way that tax cuts create a powerful multiplication effect. These tax cuts create sufficient growth to replace the government revenue that was lost from them, resulting in an expanded, prosperous economy that provides a larger tax base.

      Laffer did note that this effect is best when taxes are in the “Prohibitive Range,” which goes from a 100% tax rate to around 50%. When tax rates fall below this range, further cuts won’t be able to stimulate enough economic growth to offset lost revenue. (Trickle-Down Economics: Why It Only Works in Theory
      EconomicsOnline • July 29, 2021 • 5 min read)

      1. Your comment is awaiting moderation
        July 24, 2022

        Tax is not just about paying for government, it’s also about modifying behaviour.
        That’s why indolence is rewarded while work and other forms of wealth creation are taxed.
        With the high cost of housing in London and the Home Counties, each time you move house you would be charged tens sometimes hundreds of thousands of pounds SDLT each time you move. You need to be very sure you’ve made the right choice because each successive move will just add to the cost. In my opinion home buyers should receive a SDLT credit for tax already paid on their previous home so if you move a 2nd time you just pay the difference (the new home value minus the previous one). This would encourage retirees to sell up and leave London and provide liquidity in the property market for the younger generation who need to be in London for work – but that’s probably too sensible for the modern Tories.

        1. Paul Cuthbertson
          July 24, 2022

          YCiAM – But ask yourself why are we paying tax. To pay off the “banksters” who own and control the majority of central banks, including the BoE, throughout the globe.

      2. Mike Wilson
        July 24, 2022

        Indeed. And, of course, if you add up income tax, national insurance, council tax, VAT, duties on fuel, car tax and a whole raft of other taxes and charges – many people, even basic rate taxpayers, already hand over more than 50% to the state.

    3. anon
      July 24, 2022

      We would like to think that is the case on service charges? I am not sure the motives of some of the “managers”. So i would add that absent other regulation they might be motivated to charge what the market will bear.

      The whole charging of VAT on service charges is a mess.
      Example:

      It increases service charge costs, particularly when sub-contract labour & mananagement fees are involved . Private leaseholder usually fully contribute to council tax. They may in effect pay directly for services routinely supplied to non-leaseholders with little discernable private benefits. A level playing field?

      Vat – on mouthwash?

      Perhaps a review- maybe we need move VAT to luxuries rather than essentials.

      -jet fuel (including all flights leaving the UK airspace), boat fuel,
      -engines over a certain size used non-commercially.

      Meanwhile – if we could stop giving France backhanded subsidies for nuclear contracts. These should be UK state owned or uk private projects nothing less is acceptable.

      Why is it the public have no say on massive (undoubtedly inflationary) multi-billion pound projects.
      HS2. Foreign Aid. EU payments, Nuclear contracts. Weapon supplies to foreign states.

      Then we have a multitude of other issues – BBC funding, Senior Swamp member pensions and sinecures. All inflation protected. Have you tried to buy index linked gilts lately? Inflation was not expected?

      Its a wonder to behold how quick the swamp moves when it wants a law passed. When the swamp disagrees it is blocked.

      Democracy – by the people for the people. I don’t think so. Division by assisted and desired immigration seems to be going well.

      1. Paul Cuthbertson
        July 24, 2022

        ANON – Nothing can stop what is coming, Nothing. The swamp will be drained.

        1. hefner
          July 24, 2022

          Indeed, using a pipette. You might have to wait …

      2. glen cullen
        July 24, 2022

        +1 well said ANON

    4. DavidJ
      July 24, 2022

      “net zero religion” Indeed it does seem to be religion with nothing to support it. Just another mechanism to control us.

  3. Lifelogic
    July 24, 2022

    Liam Halligan in the Telegraph today:- Treasury groupthink has damaged Britain for decades and must stop.

    Truss’s Tax cuts are not only credible but vital as Patrick Minford rightly says in his GB interview with Liam.

    Rather vacuous/waffly article by Rishi too on his plans to limit immigration. You need real deterrents so they do not cross Sunak time to grow up amd get real! Not even fingerprinting etc. many them currently! But why would anyone trust a serial manifesto ratter like yourself Rishi – on anything at all?

    1. Julian Flood
      July 24, 2022

      I’m pleased to see that Ms Truss is suggesting confining illegal immigrant in floatels while being processed..

      JF

      1. glen cullen
        July 24, 2022

        No need to process them….we know where they came from ”FRANCE” and should be returned same day

        1. Mickey Taking
          July 24, 2022

          probably right – BUT they might have rowed from the Med, passing Gib and following the Spanish and French coast?

          1. glen cullen
            July 24, 2022

            Maybe we could identify where they’ve come from by their sim card in their smart phone

          2. Mickey Taking
            July 25, 2022

            glen – yes imagine all the countries they ‘phoned home’ from on their European tour to reach France. Then the curious calls to the dinghy suppliers. How did they pay – not cash surely? – mobile bank transfer?
            Lots of possible ways of finding information about the route to Calais.

        2. DavidJ
          July 24, 2022

          +1

      2. MFD
        July 24, 2022

        Yes then Julian, then so many may not go AWOL, as they seem to do at present.

    2. Mike Stallard
      July 24, 2022

      This will not get put up on the site, but here goes. Australia has proved conclusively that the only way to deal with illegal immigrants is to send them back. Failure to go back, I am afraid, means brute force. People who are being paid thousands of Euros per trip are criminals. The people they exploit are criminals and, one and all, they ought to be kept out. France has proved time and time again that they are not our friends (30 mile queues?)

      1. Lifelogic
        July 24, 2022

        +1

      2. Mark B
        July 24, 2022

        Whilst I agree, many of these illegals destroy their documents making it hard to return them. Even their own country will not have them back as there is no proof as to who they are.

        There is a great migration from Sub-Saharan Africa and it is only going to get worse.

      3. Your comment is awaiting moderation
        July 24, 2022

        +1

      4. Fedupsoutherner
        July 24, 2022

        Mike. +1

      5. glen cullen
        July 24, 2022

        +1

      6. DavidJ
        July 24, 2022

        Spot on Mike. Rwanda would also have been a great deterrent and must be resurrected after withdrawing from the ECHR.

    3. majorfrustration
      July 24, 2022

      Strange that Brits have difficulty leaving the UK by migrants just seem to swan in.

  4. DOM
    July 24, 2022

    ‘The new government should choose tax rates that maximise revenues’. Socialism

    My view is that the State should choose tax rates that minimise revenues. This approach guarantees less waste and less cash available to build their Client State whose purpose isn’t benevolence in the way Labour try to argue but surveillance and subjugation.

    John can express his view all he likes but he knows and so do we that since 1997 his party have endorsed EVERYTHING that Labour has created. It will destroy this nation’s fiscal, civil and moral base

    1. Dave Andrews
      July 24, 2022

      I agree with you that the State should minimise revenues. Unfortunately, the British electorate has voted for borrow and waste governments, and the money ought to be paid back by those same voters. Why should the next generation pay the cost of a debt with nothing to show for it?

    2. Lifelogic
      July 24, 2022

      Governments should only raise sufficient to do the very few things the governments can do better that the private sector. Government spending should never more than 15-20% of GDP. Not heading for 50% as now! It would then of course be 20% of a far high overall GDP though. This as the money would be left with the private sector who would generally invest and spend it much more efficiently than the dead hand of government. This enlarging the economy and the tax base.

  5. Mike Stallard
    July 24, 2022

    The Civil Service is being cut back – but fast enough? It is huge. The government seems to have taken the place of the Almighty in so many matters. With expensive local government, my next door neighbour cannot even build a wall round his property. And all those hand-outs! He gets really angry about his having to pay for what he sees as layabouts. I actually heard someone on the radio calling Mr Sunak – “Stinking Richy”. That kind of jealousy ought to be replaced by admiration for someone who has given up a lucrative career to serve his country.

    1. Sir Joe Soap
      July 24, 2022

      I think you’re being naive about Sunak.
      Sure, he gave up his wife’s tax privileges – when put under pressure.

      Yes the language used is inappropriate but the British warm to people who’ve made money by working and trading through their lives from the bottom up, Alan Sugar, Mike Ashley are examples. There’s no evidence that in his relatively short career pre-politics Sunak had any great entrepreneurial flair or grifted long hours through many years, with all the ups and downs, as even Bill Gates had to do to accumulate wealth. This is different and the British are pretty good at sniffing this difference out.

      1. Lifelogic
        July 24, 2022

        His wife was very sensible to claim the NonDom status and prevent £ million going in UK taxes, this especially under Sunak when so much is pissed down the drain by them on HS2, worthless degrees, test and trace, net harm vaccinations for children and the young, the dire NHS…

        Surely a moral duty for all to minimise your taxes as people usually spend or invest it so much better than Gov. Not a very high bar!

        1. Lifelogic
          July 24, 2022

          “NHS a killer whale that could rip harm of the next PM”

          Does he just mean it is a bloody stupid waste of money? Or was it perhaps driven by corrupt vested interests and party donations perhaps? Certainly not by any economic logic?

          1. Lifelogic
            July 24, 2022

            Sorry not NHS but HS2!

        2. DavidJ
          July 24, 2022

          Indeed LL.

    2. Donna
      July 24, 2022

      What makes you think Sunak has given up a lucrative career? All he has done is taken a “sabbatical” to polish his credentials for a Globalist role in due course. And if it doesn’t materialise, he will go back to his lucrative career …. probably with a renewed Green Card.

      1. Your comment is awaiting moderation
        July 24, 2022

        +1

    3. Lifelogic
      July 24, 2022

      Plus the expenditure is so misdirected by all of the very many levels of government. The favourite way for government to spend it on “public services” seems to be blocking the roads and mugging motorists with residents parking, bus lanes, ULEZ…

      1. glen cullen
        July 24, 2022

        +1

    4. Mike Wilson
      July 24, 2022

      That kind of jealousy ought to be replaced by admiration for someone who has given up a lucrative career to serve his country.

      Yeah! It’s really admirable to give up a career when your wife is a billionaire and take one up that involves power and fame. What else could he do? Sit around like a lapdog asking his wife if they can buy this or that?

      1. Mickey Taking
        July 24, 2022

        Lots of people living in large owned estates find things to do.

  6. formula57
    July 24, 2022

    At present, economists opposing Liz Truss’s plans are fewer in number than the 364 who boldly explained Margaret Thatcher’s plans were likewise wholly wrong and would lead to disaster etc.. We must hope Liz will receive the boost of more arriving soon to express their opposition.

  7. Shirley M
    July 24, 2022

    Sad to say, but this government has done everything we would expect of a Labour government. High immigration (the highest on record), high taxes, big government, money wasted on grand but foolish projects, appeasement of the EU and a government too afraid (or too lazy) to retake our sovereignty, appeasement of all public employees, appeasement of minorities, money thrown at any country but the UK if it earns a bit of glory, defence of every country’s border but the UK, billions thrown at illegal immigrants, all essential services all under strain (or virtually non-existent) due to the quickly rising population, etc. I am sure I need not go on. We can all see where the money goes and very little of it is used wisely.

    I am 100% positive the manifesto promised the complete opposite. The new PM needs to look at the manifesto and start again! The only thing saving your party (currently) is Brexit, but even that was a half hearted attempt and did the absolute minimum possible. To be blunt, your party has fooled the electorate by claiming to be conservative, but the majority in your party are most definitely NOT conservative or democratic. Who does the recruiting? They should be sacked, however, I think it may be too late. Your party has many undemocratic remainers willing to give priority to a foreign government over the UK, and now more than 50% socialists too. Bye bye Conservatives. Hello undemocratic new New Labour.

    1. matthu
      July 24, 2022

      Introducing a new rule allowing members to override their considered vote at the very last minute – possibly in response to an unsubstantiated media allegation/slur – is yet another nail in the coffin of democracy.

    2. formula57
      July 24, 2022

      @ Shirley M – +1

      (Your first paragraph shows why Sir Keir struggles to differentiate his offering.)

    3. MFD
      July 24, 2022

      Well said! Mam. I support every word. A lot of Politicians no longer serve our country but are selfish individuals using parliament for self grandeur, undermining the genuine caring and hardworking individuals.

    4. Fedupsoutherner
      July 24, 2022

      Shirley. You hit the nail on the head.

  8. Cuibono
    July 24, 2022

    Trouble is …
    The “outgoer” could become the Incomer and it seems that candidate, when incumbent, always followed ( to the letter) the orders of a certain elitist club. The one that claims to help its members achieve increased productivity, job creation and economic well-being. 😂
    And as for the other hopeful…well it’s all very AWKWARD really isn’t it?
    (NEVER work with kids or animals!)
    Not much to look forward to really.

  9. Berkshire Alan
    July 24, 2022

    I think we have already passed the level of taxes that it is possible to implement before people start to believe what is the point of working harder or longer.
    I would certainly think twice now about setting up in business given all of the form filling, regulations, tax, vat, insurance, employment law/regulations, together with the WOKE nature of society today, as all you end up doing is working for everyone else’s benefit first rather than your own, and all at your own financial risk.
    The risk verses reward balance has now gone too far in favour of what is at risk.

    1. MPC
      July 24, 2022

      I agree completely. Multi national manufacturers take a similar view if considering new investment in the UK. It simply isn’t worth it, especially with Net Zero which is surely destined to continue as most conservative MPs still want it and it is they that selected the two shortlisted leadership candidates.

    2. Mickey Taking
      July 24, 2022

      Gordon Brown did the most perhaps to show people ‘what is the point of working harder or longer.’
      All the while collecting future votes.

  10. Nigl
    July 24, 2022

    So how do you stop the Treasury ‘battering’ a new Chancellor until he/she gives in? It’s officials are wedded to the current approach, what are they going to do? Suddenly turn 180 degrees.

    You will end up with constant conflict or as we saw with Project Fear utter duplicity.

    The combined might of the Treasury, experts modelling etc against a political appointee unless the latter has a host of tame economists as a counterweight.

    Plus a PM who is helpless politically, if the Chancellor goes rogue.m Liz Truss already showing how weak she would be, get rid of quangos (actually no chance, been there and failed) to spend money on front line services. Note the word spend. Nothing about save and become more efficient.

    Across government the professional elites will continue to obstruct/obfuscate ensuring we continue to waste money hand over fist/stay tied to the EU, I see both candidates talking tosh about tearing up EU rules so unless you are prepared to move on the progress blocking, bureaucracy creating, inefficiency resulting Sir Humphrey’s nothing will change.

    You wont.

  11. Berkshire Alan
    July 24, 2022

    Some simple suggestions for our new PM:
    The personal annual tax allowance needs to be increased substantially at all levels, and simplified to encourage work.
    Inheritance tax needs to be increased to the ÂŁ1,000,000 promised/suggested by George Osbourne back in 2008/9 given that millions of people are now being sucked into this punitive tax simply due to the rise in house prices.
    All Green add on’s to power bills need to be scrapped, as should VAT.
    We should get rid of the double taxation of fuel, just charge VAT, and scrap the fuel duty completely, (as we are paying tax on tax)
    Stamp duty should be abolished on the purchase of a home that is going to be used as a primary residence (proof needed, suggest property registered/listed with HMRC)
    All approved energy efficiency products/insulation/services/installed equipment should be zero rated for VAT.
    No subsidies for green products or services, they should stand or fall on their own merits.

    1. Mickey Taking
      July 24, 2022

      a very good start.

    2. Dave Andrews
      July 24, 2022

      Inheritance tax is one way for the state to recover part of the national debt attributable to each individual, built up over their lifetime of voting for borrow and waste governments.

      1. Mike Wilson
        July 24, 2022

        built up over their lifetime of voting for borrow and waste governments.

        Who are the ‘don’t borrow, don’t waste’ parties I could have been voting for? As it happens, my vote has never counted. I have never managed to vote for a MP who was in the party that won the election.

    3. Lifelogic
      July 24, 2022

      Stamp duty should be abolished completely, if you buy a house to let it you even pay an extra 3% on top. Pushing up rents significantly and decreasing choices for tenants.

      1. Lifelogic
        July 24, 2022

        Turnover taxes are very damaging to the economy at up to 15% they are absurd. One reason fewer people buy is high stamp duty means it no longer makes sense to buy for a short time, So buying a studio, then a one bed, then a two bed, then a small house, then a bigger house, then a retirement home… costs you hundreds of thousands in stamp duty and other dead costs. Also deters job mobility hugely. Why move to take slightly a higher paid job if it costs you £70k in stamp duty etc. out of already heavily taxed income.

        1. Berkshire Alan
          July 24, 2022

          Lifelogic

          Very true, it also put’s a brake on downsizing, once ALL of the costs of moving are taken into account, many people do not bother.

      2. Mike Wilson
        July 24, 2022

        So, don’t buy it. Give those pesky tenants a chance to buy instead of making landlords rich.

        1. Lifelogic
          July 25, 2022

          People do not always want to buy, are not ready to but or are unable to buy. Perhaps they will only be in that area for a short time, perhaps the job is temporary, perhaps they have no job, perhaps they want to buy when they have a stable relationship, perhaps they intend to work overseas shortly or study for a while…

    4. turboterrier
      July 24, 2022

      Berkshire Alan
      Well said pal but it will never happen.
      The big W word is the key if anyone is big and brave enough to turn it.
      WASTE in every shape and form. Set meaningful achievable targets all heads of department put onto five year contracts with a bonus if targets are exceeded.

    5. anon
      July 24, 2022

      How about putting a maximum in terms of ÂŁ that can remain in a trust. ie cap the get out clause for the super rich.
      Perhaps a minimum rate of tax , where deductions are carried forward or lost.

      Time to remove non-dom rules. No special rules. You arrive in the UK you pay prorata 1/365, unless you are resident in an approved regime with minimum tax rates and reciprocal and trusted tax disclosure.

      1. hefner
        July 24, 2022

        anon, You should look at gov.uk ‘Trusts and taxes’. People with trusts pay (some) tax.
        It is worthwhile to read all the various pages to see what can be done and how to do it.

        1. Mickey Taking
          July 24, 2022

          avoiding inheritance dues?

      2. Lifelogic
        July 24, 2022

        The NonDom rules result in more taxes being raised in the UK not less. This as rich overseas people simply would not come to the UK without them. Would you pay an extra £million or so just to live in the UK full time (you can stay for much of the year anyway) and for almost nothing back? Would you take up a job in the UK for a salary of say £200k PA if you tax bill went up by £500k due to taxes on you other wealth. Osborne’s attacks on NonDoms were idiotic and caused huge economic harm, like almost everything else he did.

        From the Telegraph today:- Trevor Abrahmsohn, who specialises in selling top-end properties in London, said “ridiculous” rates of stamp duty were deterring buyers, causing the Treasury to miss out on valuable income from property transactions. He cited the example of an unnamed “famous UK footballer” who had opted to rent a mansion in Hampstead’s ­“billionaires’ row” for £15,000 per week, or £780,000 per year, instead of buying it outright for around £17m.

  12. Geoffrey Berg
    July 24, 2022

    Hasn’t Sir John heard that he, I, Liz Truss and perhaps half the Conservative Party and many others are advocating ‘immorality’? We learned that yesterday on the great authority of that very plausible, supposedly outstandingly clever man, Rishi Sunak himself. He certainly isn’t called ‘mad’ and ‘bad’ unlike somebody else we can think of. It is immoral, Rishi proclaims, to cut taxes and so create extra debt for our country’s children.
    As part of Sunak’s Oxford University degree was in ‘Philosophy’ he ought to be asked to explain a couple of things to those of us who as well as being immoral are a bit dim.
    As Sunak himself and most of his predecessors borrowed money, and indeed his own Budget’s borrowing last year increased the state debt for future taxpayers to repay and we presume (perhaps wrongly) he himself wasn’t immoral to do this, at what precise point does government borrowing become immoral? What triggers immorality? We are thoroughly confused as he had previously advocated policies where the wrongly predicted debt outturn was more than that now immorally proposed by Liz Truss?
    Secondly as he proclaims himself a man of integrity, so much integrity that when after three years he finally realised that Boris Johnson was immoral, he thought himself duty bound to resign, why does he want to lead or even be a member of a political party, around half of whose members are immoral?
    He needs to explain all this so that we immoral ones don’t get to think his remarks are not just gutter politics, intellectually incoherent and arising from sheer panic from him at the prospect of his losing the election!

    1. Rhoddas
      July 24, 2022

      Sir J for chancellor pse!!
      Balance the books too.

      I hear national grid are wanting to import huge quantities of LNG for re-export to EU to help out our friends over the Channel. Please make this contingent on their behaviour in all matters like Dover, immigrants, Horizon etc. And the extra profits should be ysed to help uk energy consumers and reduce the national debt.

      1. Christine
        July 24, 2022

        Plus they are planning to install a power cable to run to Germany so that we can help them out with electricity supplies, so we can share the burden. No doubt the British people will have to endure energy rationing whilst we bail out our so-called friends in the EU.

      2. anon
        July 24, 2022

        Proposal has been made to increase pipe pressure and export volumes to EU.

    2. Sir Joe Soap
      July 24, 2022

      Pots and kettles come to mind with most of this man’s proclamations. If I were Starmer, I’d be looking forward to September with him at the helm.

    3. Donna
      July 24, 2022

      I wonder if he thinks it is immoral for someone mega-wealthy to live in a country for years having married someone who decides to become an MP, then Chancellor of the Exchequer and aims to become Prime Minister; who owns houses there; has their children educated there – and then uses their ethnicity to legally reduce the tax they pay on the basis that they don’t see the UK as their permanent home.

      That seems pretty immoral to me.

      Perhaps Sunak hasn’t heard the advice about “removing the beam from his own eye.”

      1. Mickey Taking
        July 24, 2022

        and only after deciding the USA wouldn’t do enough for him

    4. Lifelogic
      July 24, 2022

      My move to “Philosophy, Politics and Economics”, the “new school” just being started at Oxford, was, however, not a success. I finished with no adequate qualification in any of the subjects I had studied.

      Sir John Hicks, Nobel Prize winning economist.

      1. hefner
        July 24, 2022

        Interesting LL that you quote someone who was essentially a Keynesian 😉

    5. Lifelogic
      July 24, 2022

      It is certainly immoral to tax people to death, borrow, print, devalue the ÂŁ, lockdown the economy and then waste the money or worse still spending it doing positive harm Rishi. A sort of circa 50% modern slavery from Rishi!

      1. Lifelogic
        July 24, 2022

        Also immoral Rishi is to stand on a manifesto promising clearly to keep the triple lock and not to increase certain taxes but and then to serially rat on these promises months later and in such a massive and totally unnecessary way.

        1. Mickey Taking
          July 24, 2022

          a verbal sleight of hand?

    6. Denis Cooper
      July 24, 2022

      It seems nobody wants to talk about the jiggery-pokery that was obscurely described as “quantitative easing”, and the ÂŁ840 billion of government debt held by the Bank of England in the Asset Purchase Facility:

      http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/07/21/some-funny-numbers-from-the-treasury-and-obr/#comment-1330438

      As I recall when Alistair Darling started it George Osborne had a brief premature flash of moral indignation, condemning it as “money printing”, but then went very quiet about it and later did a lot more himself …

      In January 2014 I offered a kind of historical review in a long comment on this thread:

      http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2014/01/09/why-are-so-many-out-of-work-in-euroland/#comments

      which can be found by searching for “Osborne’s premature accusation that the asset purchases would amount to “a programme of “quantitative easing” – the modern equivalent of printing money”.”

      It says here:

      https://www.dmo.gov.uk/data/pdfdatareport?reportCode=D1A

      that the total nominal value of gilts in issue is ÂŁ2175 billion, and ÂŁ840 billion would be 40% of that.

      As explained in 2014, the Treasury has been indirectly swapping its IOU’s, known as gilts, for IOU’s issued by the Bank of England, known as money, and using that money to pay the government’s bills, and Rishi Sunak knows all about that and must surely have a view on its morality.

    7. Margaretbj.
      July 24, 2022

      And what of his own affairs.How much does it cost per term to send a child to Winchester whilst other children use food banks? Why impair the children’s heritage by penalising house owners ,the employed and therefore the children’s inheritance that a great many have worked a lifetime for!

  13. Richard II
    July 24, 2022

    Sunak began the money-printing with his first budget on 11th March 2020. ÂŁ12bn extra to deal with the economic effects of… what exactly? Not the lockdown, which didn’t start till nearly two weeks later. The pandemic? It was only announced by the WHO on that same day, 11th March.

    Anybody know?

    1. hefner
      July 24, 2022

      reuters.com 11/03/2020 ‘Big-spending Sunak ditches taunts and jokes in his first UK budget’
      bbc.co.uk 11/03/2020 ‘Budget 2020: How will it help the self-employed and other questions’.

      The pandemic was announced by WHO on 11/03/2020, but on 30/01/2020 it had already announced a PHEIC.

      1. Richard II
        July 24, 2022

        Neither of your source articles says what the economic effects were that the budget was supposed to mitigate against. Staff sickness is mentioned in the BBC report. But would there have been a tsunami of staff sickness if the original WHO 2019 pandemic preparedness plan had been adhered to? In Sweden (no lockdown, no furlough, 2019 plan followed), the average no. of days off per employee in the business sector in the 2nd quarter of 2020 was 1.7 days, all sectors 2.11 days, which was in fact down from the first quarter.
        https://www.statista.com/statistics/528894/sweden-sick-days-per-worker/
        Those figures don’t seem cataclysmic to me. With the Covid testing insanity still continuing in this country, we’re probably doing worse than that even now!

        Yesterday the WHO declared a PHEIC for ‘monkeypox’. I am not aware dire economic consequences are predicted.

        1. hefner
          July 24, 2022

          Monkeypox being transmitted by contact not by aerosols is far less contagious than Covid.

          1. Richard II
            July 25, 2022

            So it’s a PHEIC, as pronounced.

  14. Richard1
    July 24, 2022

    What about all the govt waste, the explosion in health and social care costs following the pandemic which aren’t going to be reversed? HS2 the useless vanity project? The scandal of grossly wasteful defence procurement? All those quangos regulating and issuing silly woke announcements? Don’t we need to get a bit Thatcherite on the costs side to convince the public we can credibly cut taxes to stimulate growth?

    1. Lifelogic
      July 24, 2022

      +1

    2. glen cullen
      July 24, 2022

      +1

  15. Roy Grainger
    July 24, 2022

    Kemi Badenoch wanted to break up the Treasury. No wonder she wasn’t allowed to win.

    1. Lifelogic
      July 24, 2022

      Let us hope we at least get some of the Kemi agenda. But even Kemi did not go remotely far enough. We need to ditch net zero, ditch HS2, ditch the worthless degrees (about 75% of them), get rid of the rigged markets in healthcare, education, energy, banking, housing, transport… free and fair competition and freedom to choose using our own money!

      One ÂŁ1 trillion of value in Shale Gas in the UK.

  16. […] Memo to an incoming PM. It’s the economy stupid – John Redwood […]

  17. William Long
    July 24, 2022

    Please do all you can to ensure that Liz Truss has a real understanding, and not just the ‘Gut feeling’ that I suspect drives her at the moment, of all of this before she faces Sunak in the BBC debate tomorrow. The BBC no doubt, will be doing all they can to make things easy for the latter.
    I jst hope she has the sense to ask for your advice.

  18. Donna
    July 24, 2022

    Treasury Officials are still operating with a Gordon Brown mindset: tax, borrow, print, which Sunak has gone along with.

    Johnson, with his propensity for “dreaming big” with other people’s money, encouraged the “piss down the drain” attitude which means we have nothing whatsoever to show for the ÂŁbillions they’ve spent since Johnson became PM (except 45,000 illegal migrants being accommodated and provided with a very nice lifestyle, courtesy of taxpayers).

    Johnson has gone and the biggest mistake the Party could now make is to promote Sunak to the top job where he has made it clear he will continue with Treasury “business as usual.”

    Reducing Income Tax will achieve very little. Those who are only paying a small amount of IT because they are low-paid will see very little benefit. We need to cut taxes on essentials: particularly Fuel Duty and the “Green Levies – to bring down the cost of energy. VAT should be cut on everyday items (but not electronics and luxury goods).

    We need to change the Treasury mindset and that will only happen if there is a clear-out of the Brownian Senior Officials. And longer term, we need to cut the number of Civil Servants in the Treasury and HMRC. That would be best achieved by simplifying and massively reducing the Tax Code. The more complicated the Tax Code, the more officials you need to manage it.

  19. Denis Cooper
    July 24, 2022

    Here’s some more good advice that should be offered to Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak as holiday reading:

    http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/04/21/solving-the-irish-border/#comments

    “Solving the Irish border”

    With 94 comments from readers packed full of common sense which Theresa May chose to disregard.

    The letter sent to the Maidenhead Advertiser which I reproduced was printed on April 26 2018 headed:

    “Irish border a problem for the EU not the UK”.

    1. Bill brown
      July 25, 2022

      What a load of absolute rubbish looking at UK debate

      1. Peter2
        July 25, 2022

        You demand proofs, facts, figures, data and statistics of other billy, yet here you are yet again posting a pathetic one liner.
        Hilarious.

  20. ChrisS
    July 24, 2022

    Being a regular used of Dover ferries and occasionally the tunnel, I have watched the chaos over the last few days with dismay. Looking back at the recent situations at our airports, things have been no better.

    There is a common thread between these very different infrastructures and that is, of course, regulation and border controls. When the problem was at the airports, Grant Shapps was straight out blaming the airports for having insufficient staff while a lot of the problem with airports over the last few years has been with Border Force : we can cite inadequate staffing, insufficient space allocated to border checks and inefficient and unreliable eBorder systems. Border Force should be separated from the Home Office and have its own senior minister who should be fully accountable for every aspect of it.

    We have discussed here the poor performance of the Civi Service and how it has no concept of Customer Service. This too applies to our borders, both at ports and airports. We pay huge amounts in taxes and the ports and airports charge us a great deal to pass through their facilities, Yet the service we receive is absolutely disgraceful.

    It would not be beyond the reach of government to rid us of these problems. Take Dover : everything is crammed into the small area at the bottom of the White Cliffs. Whenever there is a problem of any kind the traffic backs up by quite a few miles. Yesterday, some cars took 4 hours to travel the last two miles into the port !

    Truck drivers have been stuck for up to 48 hours on the motorway and in car parks with no facilities just to get into the port. We have build lorry parks on the approaches to Dover, so why haven’t our government and the French not transferred all vehicle and customs checks for trucks to these vast vehicle parks thus reducing the chaos in Dover at a stroke. There is already a dedicated truck lane from the top of the cliffs to the port so electronic surveillance could track the trucks from the customs posts to the port to ensure none are interferred with.

    None of this is beyond solving, but because it is only the travelling public that is inconvenienced, they just don’t care.

    1. hefner
      July 24, 2022

      Crossing a border and having to interact with a machine or an officer should not be considered a ‘service,’ it is a security measure.

      1. ChrisS
        July 25, 2022

        Whatever it is, it should be efficient and there should be adequate provision for busy times.
        At present, both are clearly lacking.

  21. Mike Wilson
    July 24, 2022

    One can but hope that people look at the queues at Dover and think ‘stuff Countries in the EU – particularly France – I’m going elsewhere to spend my money.’ I foresee a big rise in holidays in North Africa. Personally, I am boycotting goods and food from the EU. My local greengrocer sells loads of local produce.

    1. Berkshire Alan.
      July 24, 2022

      Mike, I think a lot of people over the last couple of years have revalued enjoying their own gardens (those who are fortunate to have one)
      Many have now upgraded, re-designed re-purposed, this outdoor living space, and with the promotion that Climate change will mean warmer weather in the future, they perhaps will get even more use given the rising cost and hassle of travel.
      Working in the garden is also a productive way of keeping fit, and no membership fees to pay either !
      That said, good to getaway from time-time, especially if you can choose your moment/timing to the less busy periods.

    2. miami.mode
      July 24, 2022

      MW. Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Morocco – good luck with that.

      If I was French I would like to see a toll on the A16 even if it was a nominal 1 or 2 euros. There must be many like me who have used the Dover- Calais crossing many times but rarely with the intention of staying in France The French public are paying for the road and some infrastructure with no benefit accruing.

      1. Berkshire Alan
        July 24, 2022

        m m

        Plenty of toll roads already in operation in France, use them regularly A28, A71, A75, on our way down to the South, usually very efficient if wanting to cover long distances rapidly.
        Thus we all do pay up to 80 Euros each way, depending on route taken.

        1. miami.mode
          July 24, 2022

          Don’t disagree with that as I have also used French toll roads but we are paying for the infrastructure and ease of travel. My point only refers to the A16 which is used for free by many thousands of vehicles for convenience purely to cross the Channel but to the detriment of the locals.

          Not sure what the current position is but we have complained for years about Irish EU trucks using our roads without charge to get to the rest of the EU at our cost with no benefit to us.

    3. MFD
      July 24, 2022

      I am with you on that subject. I have boycotted any EU goods I find, I look for an alternative or do without. My last holiday on mainland Europe was 1998 and that ended with me missing a ferry as a result of a bullying copper who tried to find any non-existent defect on my rig so he could pocket the on the spot fine.
      Never again, our country side is vastly superior.
      PS fine the french one fishing licence for each rubber dingy that gets past mid channel. Our fishing fleet will at least benefit

    4. Bill brown
      July 24, 2022

      This is a childish reaction, as all interviewed in Kent today blamed Brexit and this is the principal reason as we now all need a stamp in our passports

      1. Peter2
        July 24, 2022

        You are so pro EU bill, you ought to win a prize.

        1. Bill brown
          July 25, 2022

          Peter 2

          Another useless remark which doesn’t solve the problem the traveling public is facing

          1. Peter2
            July 25, 2022

            I disagree bill.
            The delays at Dover are due to the French staff.
            Why no delays of this magnitude at any other European ports if brexit is the reason?
            Your pro EU anti brexit attitude is blinding you to the truth.

      2. Original Richard
        July 25, 2022

        BB :

        I don’t recall our passports being stamped anywhere in Western Europe before we joined the Common Market.

    5. Original Richard
      July 25, 2022

      MW :

      Agreed

      In fact I have not purchased any French agricultural produce since 1990 when French farmers (subsidised by CAP payments to which the UK was a large net contributor) set fire to one truckload of live British sheep, killing 219 of them as well as poisoning, slitting throats and dousing others with insecticide.

      1. Bill brown
        July 25, 2022

        Peter 2

        Another useless remark which doesn’t solve the problem the traveling public is facing

        1. Peter2
          July 25, 2022

          You keep repeating yourself billy.

          1. Bill brown
            July 25, 2022

            Peter 2

            You are the blind one and you are unable to see it, but this is nothing new

        2. Peter2
          July 27, 2022

          Answer my straightforward question above Billy.
          You are running away again.

  22. turboterrier
    July 24, 2022

    We can throw billions at every conceivable cause and yet there are 3 million woman who have all been shafted over changes in pensionable retirement age.
    Boris was recorded on camera talking to the WASPI woman and sympathised with them but said the country could not afford it. Now with support from the Ombudsman and courts is it not about time these women were paid out?
    The chances of the money remaining within our economy would be very high I would guess. Start doing things that impact on your own people first. If as perceived a lot of Tory MPs are not really up to the job raise the standard for consideration for selection.
    If as looks likely we will be routed at the next GE. Now is the time to put the new requirements into place. This existing lot have done too much damaged and blown away a 80+ majority with all their hidden agenda’s and women’s.

    1. miami.mode
      July 24, 2022

      WASPI women.
      1991 – Intention announced
      1993 – White paper
      1995 – Enacted
      It’s a bit like speed cameras – there are pictures informing you of their presence, invariably they are prominent and painted bright yellow and very often there are lines painted on the road.

    2. Dave Andrews
      July 24, 2022

      On the other hand, those women are generally living longer, so might well end up taking pensions for more years than they might have expected at the beginning of their career. Why should the workers of today pay a benefit greater than those who receive it today paid during their own working lives?

    3. MWB
      July 24, 2022

      Will you also be speaking up for compensation for the millions of men who have been denied the state pesnion until they reached 65 ?
      Deafening silence.

      1. John C.
        July 24, 2022

        Absolutely right. I remember no women protesting at the absolute unfairness of them having 5 years’ pension before I, unluckily born male, could claim mine.
        And it defies the undoubted fact that women live longer, as well.

      2. Mickey Taking
        July 24, 2022

        and that all the retired females I know (including widows) are spending their husband’s pension – the men don’t seem to have much of a say in it !

  23. Denis Cooper
    July 24, 2022

    Here’s another useful piece of advice for the Incoming Prime Minister, that just as:

    https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/for-the-last-time-an-eu-trade-deal-isnt-worth-it-for-the-uk/?mc_cid=89d61f4f70&mc_eid=ee84cb59c6

    “For the last time – an EU trade deal isn’t worth it for the UK”

    so too it would not make much odds if the EU cancelled that trade deal.

    According to the EU Commission it might be worth 0.75% of GDP for the UK:

    http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/07/22/my-interventions-in-the-north-ireland-protocol-committee-day-2-debate/#comment-1330696

    but that article suggests it might be only 0.1% to 0.2% of GDP, before costs:

    “… overall, repatriating regulatory policy is more valuable in the long term than free trade in goods with the EU. Trading on WTO terms with the EU means UK firms facing tariffs of 3-4% on average. The impact on GDP of tariffs on this modest scale is small. Adapting the approach taken by Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman, the negative effect on UK GDP can be calculated at maybe 0.1%-0.2% of GDP.”

    The country which would be hit most severely would be the Irish Republic, losing maybe 8% of GDP:

    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/letters/ireland-would-suffer-in-trade-war-so-should-implore-eu-not-to-be-stupid-3776446

    “Ireland would suffer in trade war so should implore EU not to be stupid”

    1. Shirley M
      July 24, 2022

      If the trade deal is crapped, then surely the EU fishing rights will also be scrapped. That would cause Macron one or two problems, but VERY well deserved! When do we stop offering Macron the ‘other cheek’, only to get a second smack in the face?

      1. Shirley M
        July 24, 2022

        Apologies, I wasn’t being rude, the typo should have read ‘scrapped’.

        1. Denis Cooper
          July 24, 2022

          You were close with your original version.

          An alternative is “pathetic little trade deal”,

    2. Bill brown
      July 25, 2022

      Denis

      You are so blind that you are not able to see what you are trying to do or say

  24. ian Miller
    July 24, 2022

    Unlike the Bank of England’s remit which is to maintain the value of the pound through the use of interest rates, on the contrary, the government’s ‘green’ policy of deliberately reducing domestic investment in Coal, North Sea Oil and Fracking, raises their commodity prices and is therefore inflationary,
    Even the threat to reduce our energy security ,exposing us to rampant world market prices raises the price of energy and itself is inflationary also affects our balance of trade and falling pound from which, also puts up the cost of our imports.
    Owing to government’s own green measures to reduce refining capacity which has increased the price of petrol and diesel, failing a commensurate cut in petrol and diesel duty, further compounds inflation.
    Owing to the demolition of Gas storage to create shortage the corresponding increases in Gas price causes inflation.
    Green Levies on energy bills which we didn’t have before we had to ‘Save the Planet’, – are themselves inflationary.
    Printing of money to equate to fewer goods and services produced during the Covid furlough was inflationary.

    The list goes on and on and In short, Rishi Sunak ( and Quasi Quartang’s ) World Economic Forum’s green ambitions are totally inflationary and only intended to reduce the value of the money in our pockets. It is a piece of impudence for Rishi Sunak to claim his PM candidature by alleging he wants to bring inflation down, when as Chancellor of the Exchequer he created it in the first place. I’m afraid it is now too late for Mr Sunak to stake this claim. His claim is proving to be fraudulent. He lies through his teeth and cannot be trusted.
    I respectfully and humbly suggest that to put a stop to the imminent inflationary strike action spiral, we must reverse all of Sunak’s inflationary measures and remove our need to compensate for his price increases which as a nation we simply cannot afford.

  25. Ian miller
    July 24, 2022

    Unlike the Bank of England’s remit which is to maintain the value of the pound through the use of interest rates, the government’s ‘green’ policy of deliberately reducing domestic investment in Coal, North Sea Oil and Fracking, intentionally raises their commodity prices and is therefore inflationary,
    Even the threat to reduce our energy security ,exposing us to rampant world market prices raises the price of energy and itself is inflationary which also affects our balance of trade and falling pound from which, also puts up the cost of our imports.
    Owing to government’s own green measures to reduce refining capacity which has increased the price of petrol and diesel, failing a commensurate cut in petrol and diesel duty, further compounds inflation.
    Owing to the demolition of Gas storage to create shortage the corresponding increases in Gas price causes inflation.
    Green Levies on energy bills which we didn’t have before we had to ‘Save the Planet’, – are themselves inflationary.
    Printing of money to equate to fewer goods and services produced during the Covid furlough was inflationary.

    The list goes on and on and In short, Rishi Sunak ( and Quasi Quartang’s ) World Economic Forum’s green ambitions are totally inflationary and intended to reduce the value of the money in our pockets. It is a piece of impudence for Rishi Sunak to claim his PM candidature by alleging he wants to bring inflation down, when as Chancellor of the Exchequer he created it in the first place. I’m afraid it is now too late for Mr Sunak to stake this claim. His claim is proving to be fraudulent. He lies through his teeth and cannot be trusted.
    I respectfully and humbly suggest that to put a stop to the imminent inflationary strike action spiral, we must reverse all of Sunak’s inflationary measures and remove our need to compensate for his price increases which

  26. MWB
    July 24, 2022

    Memo to an incoming PM – it’s immigration stupid

  27. APL
    July 24, 2022

    JR: “Memo to an incoming PM – it’s the economy stupid”

    How many times do you have to discover this truth??

    You have written varients of this post for the last decade. Has anyone in government actually learned anything?
    We’re often told, ‘lessons will be learned’, then six months to a year later, we find out that, no, no lessons were learned. So, I will take the liberty of rewriting your strapline.

    Stupid! It’s the economy!

    1. Mickey Taking
      July 24, 2022

      or even ‘its a stupid economy’.

  28. Bloke
    July 24, 2022

    Economic probity has been bashed by several stray influences, such as:

     Cash for Questions
     Brown Envelopes
     Dodgy Expenses
     Duck House and Moat
     Non-Dom privilege
     Pillow Talk from Mistresses
     Nagging Wives and Wallpaper
     Offshore Signals
     Whispering Whistleblowers

    The UK is seeking a change to something new. Les Dawson used joke about his Mother-in-Law.
    Until recently, Father-in-Laws seemed more serious. Liz Truss seems serious. Her changes might make voters smile.

  29. mancunius
    July 24, 2022

    The economy isn’t everything. Societal cohesion matters greatly to most Britons. Immigration (illegal and legal) is a far more serious issue than the Tories realize: constantly promising restrictions, constantly failing to even properly address the issue, let alone do anything about it.
    If people look around and no longer recognize their country, and see newcomers obtaining the housing they themselves seek, benefiting from the taxes they have paid: why should they care about its economy?

    1. Mickey Taking
      July 24, 2022

      and funding and fighting other countries’ wars, indeed even patrolling parts of the world that are of no consequence to us – at the behest of our boss. (USA).

  30. Pauline Baxter
    July 24, 2022

    I wish, Sir John that you could advise Liz Truss, so she could explain to the party members, how Sunak’s policies are wrong for the economy.
    I am also disappointed that Sunak has apparently got in first with saying we might have to leave the E.C.H.R.
    They put the final nail in the coffin of Rwanda flights and I understand membership of the E.C.H.R. can be used in other ways to prevent us being fully out of the E.U.

    1. glen cullen
      July 24, 2022

      Only a week ago Sunak was saying that we will not be leaving the ECHRs

    2. Bill brown
      July 25, 2022

      Pauline

      You really don’t understand on what you are saying nor do you understand the consequences of the Rwanda deal, that Denmark among others had to abandon because it made no sense and it is illegal

  31. Denis Cooper
    July 24, 2022

    I’ve been reclining in a deckchair in a shady spot in the garden musing on what I could most usefully do during this six week hiatus and one thing might be to flesh out my February 2018 suggestion of a system of “approved exporters” for the carriage of goods from Northern Ireland into the Irish Republic across the open land border, rather than the system of “trusted traders” for the transfer of goods from Great Britain into Northern Ireland that is now being mooted by Liz Truss, who it seems has still not completely taken on board that IT IS NONE OF THE EU’S BUSINESS WHAT GOODS ARE MOVED BETWEEN THOSE TWO PARTS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM.

    http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/02/23/21448/#comment-920729

    “We already have a system for “approved exporters”:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/import-and-export-application-for-approved-exporter-status-c1454

    with one special case for exports to Turkey:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/import-and-export-application-for-approved-exporter-status-c1454/guide-for-completing-form-c1454-for-turkey-only

    “Guide for completing form C1454 for Turkey only”

    so I see no reason why that kind of system should not be adapted for goods exports from Northern Ireland to the Irish Republic – which amount to about 0.1% of UK GDP – in effect providing the Irish and EU authorities with a new legal guarantee that they need not check those incoming goods at the border, as used to happen before the EU Single Market was established in December 1992.”

    1. Bill brown
      July 25, 2022

      We signed a deal and we need to to stick with it

  32. No Longer Anonymous
    July 24, 2022

    You simply have to stop motivating people not to work and demotivating those who do. Taxation is the key here.

  33. Lindsay McDougall
    July 24, 2022

    You have, perhaps accidentally, put your finger on the key issue. Current levels of public expenditure are NOT affordable. John Bohner, one time leader of the Republicans in the USA House of Representative, summarised the remedial action needed: “If you’re spending too much, spend less”,

    There are numerous areas where the UK State spends too much.
    – We spend too much on the retired elderly. When State pensions at 65 for men, 60 for women were first introduced, average life expectancy was 60. The burden was small. Even though the women’s pensionable age has subsequently been raised to 65, in modern times it is common for pensioners to enjoy a 20 year holiday at taxpayers’ expense.
    – In particular, our health services are mostly funded by taxation and are free at the point of consumption. It is a crazy system. Our health services badly need more non-taxation revenue and better cost control. The NHS spends money like water on expensive drugs that extend life only a short time. We should remember that if the NHS spends heavily on drugs to extend the life of an extremely old person, its reward is to have to spend even more in the next year. Maybe each person on retirement should be allocated a budget for health care; when that budget is exhausted, the person has to pay for his/her own health care. And when oh when are we going to publish a list of drugs that must be purchased over the counter at a pharmacy without a doctor’s prescription?
    – We throw money at loss making railways for no good reason. Unprofitable railway services and lines should be shut down. Privately owned regional or corridor railway companies, owning all of the freeholds on railway property, obliged by law to maintain track used in a safe condition but fully free to determine which services to run, would be a good idea. Anything to get railways off taxpayers’ backs.
    – Why does the State need to own any residential property, except possibly a few houses for servicemen? Housing subsidies should be allocated to PEOPLE and not tied to particular properties. They should cease when the need ceases. The Council House system is intrinsically corrupt – we all remember sex for a council house in certain north-eastern areas.
    – We employ too many civil servants. Why do we tax the poor only to give them handouts? What use are OFGEN, OFCOM et al? Why not sack the entire Race Relations Commission, whose only role is to publish reports detailing alleged discrimination, without any attempt to assess the raw material via IQ and aptitude tests?
    – Some people want more spent on defence. Why should we do more than provide some extra RN patrol boats for British waters and two weekends of training per annum for an increased territorial army?
    – Our woke Monarchy costs too much. It should be shrunk and surplus land and properties sold off. Prince Charles should be told that if GM crops are banned, world food production would shrink. Is he volunteering to be one of those that starve as a result? If the Monarchy fulminates against private transport, why don’t THEY use it less. And what do we make of Charles’s view of architecture, that no palace should be more than two stories high and nothing else should be as tall as a palace?
    – Why do we not charge the European Commission for delays to British tourists and exporters caused by malicious and unnecessary bureaucratic [in]action by the French and others. Just estimate the value of time lost and deduct it from the money that we are still paying the EC. Just DO it.
    – We spend too much on asylum seekers. Why provide them with free lawyers and free hotel accommodation. Any why do we not build an internment camp on Stornaway or other Hebridean Island for those who throw their documents away? People from southern latitudes do not like Hebridean winters, which are unpleasant, even life threatening.
    – Why do we not force Her Majesty to double the number of judges so as to clear the backlog of court cases? And why were judges allowed to refuse to serve when juries could not sit due to the pandemic? They should have been furloughed. Capping a judge’s salary at ÂŁ25,000 would have got a reaction.

    There, that’s some of my list of public expenditure cuts. What’s yours, Sir John? More to the point, what are Liz Truss’s?

    1. Mickey Taking
      July 25, 2022

      not a bad start. What about immediate cut in VAT, increase in tax personal allowance, introduce annual licence for dogs and chip them, introduce law to have cats wear a small bell, annual licence and ID plate for bicycles.

      1. Lindsay McDougall
        July 25, 2022

        An interesting list. My reform of income tax would be to take those earning ÂŁ18,000 pa or less (roughly the minimum wage annualised) out of income tax and NI. The upper income tax threshold should be raised to ÂŁ60,000 pa. If revenue is a consideration, we could combine the raised thresholds with income tax rates of 25% and 45%, just so long as nobody paid more income tax in total.
        I like the idea of cats wearing a bell. It reminds me of one of Aesop’s fables. The house cat was eating too many mice, so the mice had a pow-wow to decide what to do about it. All agreed that putting a bell on the cat to warn of its approach was the right idea. “Right” said the head mouse “Who will bell the cat?”

        1. Mickey Taking
          July 26, 2022

          We are surrounded by cats which clearly spend most of the day, and night (I have a camera to watch visiting hedgehogs) – one neighbour has 5 monsters. I dread to think of the poo they deposit in our local gardens, the mice and birds they torture and kill. If a dog spent hours roaming about in a garden, shitting and killing wild animals there would be uproar, why are cats deemed untouchable?

  34. hefner
    July 24, 2022

    What about, for once, starting to ask topical and incisive questions:
    For example, the Home Office has presently problems with people renewing or getting new passports. We are told it has nothing to do with the HO but with Teleperformance, a French multi-national, with its UK office in Bristol where staff there are first points of contact for the public but are practically unable to access the relevant HO computers.
    So who is actually responsible? The staff in the Bristol office, Teleperformance, the IT engineers not giving access to the relevant information, Priti Patel, the HO civil servants?

    People are stuck for hours in their cars in snail-moving traffic before being able to get to a ferry in Dover. Everybody knows it is ‘because of the French border officers’ who arrived late (08:45) to take their posts on Friday morning. We then learned that Dover Port Authority had asked £33 m for extending their facilities in 2020 and that £33,000 was generously provided by the Government. Who is responsible, the French officers, the Port of Dover, the miserly money provided, the Civil Service in the Department of Transport, or the Transport Minister unable to figure out that after two years staying in the UK a non-negligible number of people would want to go to the Continent starting as soon as schools close, and that without any extension to the border facilities in Dover there might be a problem given the increased information now required at the border.

    A similar situation might arise (soon?) with HMRC with a lot of external contractors, eg dealing with different parts of the self-assessment system. Who will be held responsible when problems start to appear? The contractors who got millions in contracts or HMRC, the Treasury Ministers, or the Civil Service?

    With the present ideological push to decrease the government, soon we might have a smaller government with a smaller number of civil servants but with many more external private contractors we would not know anything about, except with a sheer determination to find out who does what and where and at what cost (something most people are too busy to do).
    The ‘good’ thing will be a decrease in the number of CSs, something that is likely to be trumpeted by the relevant Minister, the bad one might be than it will cost the taxpayers even more.

    And looking at recent Covid history, to say that the private sector is by definition (or as an act of faith) more efficient than whatever could be done by dedicated state employees should really be questioned.

  35. Mickey Taking
    July 24, 2022

    She will be flush.
    Thames Water boss Sarah Bentley will be handed a total of ÂŁ727,000 in two one-off payments – within days of being blasted by the Environment Agency for the firm’s record on pollution. Most of the payment forms part of a ÂŁ3.1million ‘golden hello’ for signing on as chief executive at the UK’s largest water supplier. It is in addition to her eye-watering annual pay and bonuses last year, which rose to ÂŁ2million, new documents show.
    The agency earlier this month slammed water companies for their record on pollution and sewage discharges – branding 2021 as ‘the worst we have seen for years’. Thames Water, which serves 15million people, was named as one of the worst performers. Alongside Anglian, Wessex and Yorkshire Water, the company was given only two stars out of five – which means it requires ‘significant improvement’.
    Bentley’s pay was the highest given to a Thames Water boss since 2015.

  36. hefner
    July 24, 2022

    I don’t know whether to laugh or to cry: OneWeb, the satellite company that the UK had bailed out (with a lot of fanfare, MailOnLine, 26/06/2020 ‘Johnson bids to secure £400 m stake of US operator OneWeb’) for £500 m in July 2020 with the help of the Indian telecoms company Bharti (in order to compensate for the UK being pushed out of EU’s Galileo satellite system thanks to Brexit) is likely to be ‘merged-acquired’ by the French conglomerate EuTelSat.
    EuTelSat already had a 23% stake in OneWeb, it will be further increased. It is thought that the UK will continue to keep a minority stake (possibly 20%) and might retain some ‘special rights for military purposes’.
    Interestingly such activities would likely be out the Five Eyes agreement.

    bloomberg.com, 23/07/2022 ‘UK satellite operator OneWeb said near merger with EuTelSat’.

    1. Peter2
      July 25, 2022

      Try to laugh hef.
      It’s much better than your grumpy persona.
      For you and the rest of us.

      1. hefner
        July 26, 2022

        Funny, you seem to be the only one to object to my ‘grumpy persona’.

        Do I usually detect of whiff of ‘Agent Provocateur’ ™️ in your comments. Unfortunately you are not particularly good at Socratic questioning, and more often than not you just look ridiculous.
        But keep on the good work P2, a goofy persona is usually very entertaining, to me at least.

        1. Peter2
          July 27, 2022

          I reckon bill and you are the same person
          On here to wind up others.

  37. Fedupsoutherner
    July 24, 2022

    I’ve just read that they are talking about charging people to stay in hospital to help pay for the NHS. How about charging foreigners for treatment first?

    1. Bill brown
      July 25, 2022

      It is penauts

      1. Mickey Taking
        July 26, 2022

        ridiculous remark,

        1. Peter2
          July 27, 2022

          It is a speciality of bill, our resident troll.

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