It is strange to read and hear unquestioning assertions that the high inflation of the mid 1970s was the result of Chancellor Barber’s  tax cuts. If you study the history you would conclude that the Barber period did indeed see an inflationary price bubble especially for property and financial assets, brought on by a change of money policy.
The Bank and Treasury in 1971 gave up on a complex system of quantitative controls on bank lending, substituting Competition and credit control as a policy. The deregulation would have been a good idea if the Bank had then used its retained powers to fix short term rates in a way which limited overall credit and money creation. Instead they went for a credit and money boom which powered the property and secondary banking bubble. In 1973 with clear overheating they abruptly changed policy just in time for the blow of the oil price OPEC surge to widen the inflation and add to the downturn their money policy lurch generated.
There are some similarities with today. Today the Bank has lurched from far too much money creation and low rates to money destruction and higher rates, just as in the 1970 s the Bank and Treasury lurched from far too much private lending and low rates to too little. Then as now the asset inflation broadened out into a general inflation  pushed hard by an external energy price shock. These external  shocks pushed up the inflation rate but also took demand growth out of the domestic economy leading to recession in the 1970s. Today we will have a recession if we persevere with higher taxes and a severe monetary tightening at the same time as the real income hit from energy.
August 7, 2022
The argument is meaningless.
Defenders of the unionised, progressive Client State will fight tooth and nail to defend their and its carefully crafted authoritarian powers and parasitic privileges. The left haven’t spent years since 1997 constructing their Socialist power base to see it swept away by a LOW TAX, small State PM so one shouldn’t be too surprised that the lefty leeches with hate and destruction in their hearts should seek to dilute any and all policies that cuts funding to themselves
If Truss does become the next PM she should embrace with absolute resolution ‘full on’ Thatcherism across the board. If she doesn’t then the UK will descend further and deeper into a Neo-Marxist progressive rabbit hole where truth,logic and reality become redundant to be replaced by ideology, hate and leftist racism using CRT
Truss should should speak direct to the people that under Labour the people have been financing the destruction of their own freedoms and that they’ve been deceived by Labour’s ideological war against decency and the moral majority. She should also condemn previous Tory leaders for appeasing Labour’s unions and their activists at local and national level that has led to real horror and harm
If Truss plays it right and from the heart she can wipe the floor with the left but it must come from the HEART
August 7, 2022
Agree 100%
If Mrs Tâs shade doesnât intervene in some significant way then we (sadly) will begin to doubt that there is an afterlife!
Truss ( and I have a feeling that there are forces which will keep her in line) is our only hope.
There appear to be forces trying to subvert the election?
August 7, 2022
If Truss gathers the right people around her she need not fear the blob. JR come forward.
August 8, 2022
Dom,
JRs party has been in awe of Blaire since he left office. They have continued his policy legacy throughout 12 years using the civil service, advisers and quangos to embed in society.
Heir to Blaire Cameron made that absolutely clear. Appointing his former ministers to policy advisory roles and quangos was not a mistake or something the Tory party was forced to do. It chose to follow Blaire.
August 8, 2022
Well, Sir John makes some valid points.
However, the *effect* of 1970s inflation on ordinary people was generally less dramatic than today’s precisely because their abilities through strong unions to defend their real pay saved many of them.
You can blame them chicken-and-egg style for the inflation if you like, but the real reasons for it were more structurally fundamental.
August 7, 2022
Albanians being brought across the channel in large numbers by this rotten government.
August 7, 2022
I wonder why they just pass through the EU and risk their lives in the channel, instead of staying in NLH’s EUtopia?
August 7, 2022
In fairness, I hired an Albanian for building work and he was AWESOME (professional, hard working, excellent workmanship, charming, polite, humble).
I hired some local, English builders, more expensive, for something else and they were rubbish (they caused a leak in the bathroom which then flooded through into the kitchen wrecking the ceiling and then were pretty laid back about fixing the ceiling).
This country has lost, from one degree to another, its WORK ETHIC (money ALWAYS flows from work ethic whilst at the same time work ethic gives one a sense of value / self-respect which then plays wonders in the rest of our lives).
Only solution, to return to our Judaeo-Christian values and the best of our Greco-Roman heritage instead of this brave new world of rampant individualism.
August 7, 2022
‘rampant individualism’
– whilst also having to deal with horrors of socialism, feminism / WOKE as well.
(but a fairly expensive English builder flooding your house because all he cares about is money is also a horror ..)
August 7, 2022
To Ed M, agree.
I hosted an Albanian. Humble and straightforward.
There are gangsters in every country.
For UK gangsters listen to
“The Corrupted ” R.4 ( Reality/Drama/ Political )
Episode 1 ( series ?) last night. set in the 70s.
It’s totally brilliant. References Thatcher etc
( I’m a conservative btw )
The Best things in life are Free.
August 8, 2022
Hi. The English builder wasn’t a gangsta. He was a nice enough guy. 50 years ago, he would have done a great job and for half the price. But he was just overly-focused on the money. There was little sense of taking joy in doing a good job.
The problem with being overly-focused on money (as opposed to work ethic) is that it creates all kinds of problems for individuals and society in other ways. Overly-focused on money creates anxiety and stress. Which in turn, turns us into addicts (sex, drugs, junk food, beer, cigarettes). But it also leads us to becoming more bad tempered. Stuff like that. Which affects our relationships and health. Which then causes psychological problems and burn out. All costing the NHS billions. And billions in lost productivity. And then leading to more divorces which costs the individuals in time and money as well … Etc .. Break up of family life. And society in general. It creates a whole litany of problems including money problems further down the line, affecting both the individual, both those around him, productivity – and the tax payer.
PS. I love money, sex, tech and power – but in the right ordered way. Not approaching them chaotically as seems to be the case so much today compared to the past.
Thanks for the TV tip.
August 7, 2022
Iago: If the government is unable to return Albanian nationals arriving illegally on these boats on a quick turn around then we can only assume the HO & current legislation are not fit for purpose. We are told they come mainly due to poverty. On the future accession list to the EU, itâs obvious that the not insignificant EUâs pre accession funding to Albania â a so called investment in the future of the EU – over many years, hence the UK has already contributed, does little at the grass roots level then. Youâll find that GB News / Farage on Weds last week, Aug 03, did a very good feature on this after locating advertising for the accessing of the UK via the channel boats on a major Social Media platform by Albanian gangs ( 4 accounts apparently taken down by the SMP) but also making contact through an advertised telephone number which was still live & was being answered. GBN I understand referred their findings to the Home Office and basically, according to the reporting, it was suggested that it be referred to the Police and other law enforcement agencies. There was an interesting interview also with a political correspondent from an Albanian based broadcaster. GBN / YT 03 August. With the total arrivals to date in August, 01 to 06 incl. standing at 1709 / 37 boats ( & that’s 4 days with 2 days at zero ) & our authorities seemingly not willing either to divulge what might be happening on other known routes, nobody seems to consider this important.
August 8, 2022
I have got to the stage where I would vote for the Devil himself, if he would stop this daily deluge from across the Channel. It is doing nothing but harm.
It is affecting our housing stock, the NHS, and things too numerous to mention. It goes on day after day, with no end in sight, and our politicians do nothing about it. The biggest insult of course is that we, the Taxpayers, have to pay for it. Any protest, and we are lectured on our âmoral responsibilityâ to the rest of the World.
Anyone who would stop this, gets my vote!
August 7, 2022
Free lunch left wing fascism sets out to encourage and create State dependency as a weapon of political war against free individuals who desire a distant relationship with the political State
Free-lunch politics must be destroyed to save the UK and its people from left wing barbarism
Hayek must become a core text in education
Slash the State in half and return freedoms to their rightful owners, private individuals
August 7, 2022
Trouble isâŠand I largely support Thatcherism âŠthe tories learned an unshakeable lesson with the disastrous sale of council housesâŠgive them free lunches and they will vote for you!
Struggling to pay a mortgage and hearing (first hand) about huge council house windfalls was quite distressing to say the least.
And look at the social problems caused by it.
Even Mrs T didnât think of educating people about how to become middle class.
And now we all suffer.
August 7, 2022
The error was not so much selling the houses, but in not allowing replacement with the money raised. I could never figure out her thinking, and the only conclusion I can come to is that she wished to destroy housing owned by local authorities and drive the population to private landlords. A great mistake, bound up in no more than the doctrine that public owned evil, private owned utopia, without any regard for those who could never own a home of any sort. She certainly was not perfect, but better than anything since.
August 7, 2022
+1
Oh so much better!
I think her idea in getting shot of council houses was to reduce the size of the welfare stateâŠas with mental hospitals.
However, in both of these there was a huge price paid by those who have to get up and go to work to pay for the inevitable fallout.
Pay to build more council houses or encourage buy to let which destroys and changes neighbourhoods.
Pay for a controlled mental hospital or pay for lefty out of control benefits?
August 7, 2022
The whole point of RTB was to secure a change in the balance of ownership in the knowledge that people who own their homes tend to take care of them and their surroundings. There was in fact also plenty of housebuilding mainly for owner occupation – indeed a resurgence over the 1980s. The housing stock grew faster than the population, with little net migration.
August 7, 2022
They often suggest this Thatcher selling off reduced supply of council houses. In general it did not as the tenants never left as they were paying far below market rents. The really solution is to have fair competition and market rents for all who can afford to pay them. Then you need more houses or fewer people or a bit of bother. So you have to relax planning laws and build and train more builders to build them.
August 7, 2022
‘For all who can afford to pay them’ – What happens to those who can’t but still need somewhere to live? Devil take the hindmost is not good politics or moral. Fewer people ain’t gonna happen and you know that as we all do. They keep importing to provide cheap labour and raise GDP as they have no other ideas. What’s your answer as no private landlord would take them on?
August 7, 2022
and what happened to the short-term money rolling in from the sales?
August 8, 2022
Also, problem today is that so many of our beautiful old towns are fairly ruined by American-style shopping malls and town centres that no-one visits anymore – or far less than they used to. Because they find these places cheap / vulgar / charmless.
So, one pays a big price for some aspects of short-term extreme, America-style capitalism. If these beautiful, old towns had kept their charm, they could be doing a roaring trade now including inviting more foreign companies as well as tourists – and less Brits going abroad for their holidays to escape the American-style shopping malls and town centres back home.
August 7, 2022
And – I’m afraid – the privatisations which went rogue. No new reservoirs despite obvious increases in population. No fixed leaks…. just spank the customers with charges and tell them they can’t have water when they need it.
—-
A suspension of Green stuff is needed in this time of dire economic crisis.
August 7, 2022
Someone said yesterday that we need to ‘hunger down’.
Much of what we are suffering is caused but government targets on greenism.
August 7, 2022
Agree – and I wish that someone would fix the leaks…they’ve only been promising to fix them for 3 decades
August 8, 2022
Water was gushing out of the pavement recently. Told a neighbour. She told a neighbour. For at least a week, they didn’t do anything. And now I hear all our pipes are Victorian and leaking like mad. The private companies aren’t going to replace these pipes. Only a government.
It makes perfect sense for lots of things to be privatised i.e. national airlines and loads more. But for others, it’s just ideology. Trains. Post office. Water. (Although I do believe also in a mixture of private / public – not black and white). But certainly, at a certain point, it costs our economy more, not less, when you over-privatise.
August 8, 2022
She told the water board I meant. They did bugger all. For ages.
Also, to really build up our economy more, instead of getting over-caught up in privatisation, we should be focused more on helping our kids get better, more useful / practical, and good-value, further education (including shorter degrees). And focusing more on helping the Tech Industry become the strong number 1 Tech leader in Europe.
August 8, 2022
In fairness to the Tories of the 1980’s, they were dealing with the disastrous consequences of socialism of the 1970’s. They were fairly desperate to get the country out of the hole it was in. That doesn’t excuse things but it does remind one of the context in which they were working.
And I think there’s an over-focus on the USA. I been to the USA. And I had a great time. But the reality is that there are loads of nutters there and lots of places that are complete crazy shit-holes compared to say life in civilised Britain back in the 1960’s and before.
I’d rather be a poor sheep farmer in the Yorkshire Dales, then be one of millions and millions of Americans who live in concrete shit holes where they stuff themselves with junk from Wallmark or whatever and with mindless, ‘have a nice day!’
(I’m being a bit cynical to make a point but there is truth in what I say)
August 7, 2022
Correct analysis.
âToday we will have a recession if we persevere with higher taxes and a severe monetary tightening at the same time as the real income hit from energy.â.
This especially true if we retain the insanity of net zero & thecexpensive intermittent energy agenda on top of the vast manifesto ratting tax increases and allowance freezes that the economic illiterate Rishi Sunak has put in place. A huge bonfire of red tape and the firing of all the many people in the state sector who do nothing useful or do positive net harm would help too. Let them get a real and productive job.
August 7, 2022
LL :
I completely agree.
August 7, 2022
My memory of those times were my mortgage.
We started at 8% and soon went to 15%.
We survived and I am sure we will survive now.
August 7, 2022
Bob, you survived but surely you needed food banks, increased benefits, free travel passes, etc.?
August 7, 2022
No, we lived simpler lives – no mobiles, no Netflix, no foreign holidays, purchased good used furniture & second hand white goods, no eating out (well maybe the very occassional Berni Inn). Life wasn’t aweful looking back…
August 7, 2022
PeteB. Food banks? I definitely don’t remember those back then. Increased benefits? Not if you had a mortgage. All you could do was live much more frugally.
August 7, 2022
I do not believe the food bank industry should be tolerated and promoted as it is. The people who are pictured using them do not look as if they have a problem through lack of food. Theses organisations are political and the MSM love them because they like sensationalism and anything that is on their side of the agenda.
August 7, 2022
Pete , I like Bob purchaced my first home which was in poor condition at that time, so between working hard for my income I also spent long hours renovating the property as well as putting food on the table.
We needed heavy clothing in the two winters it took and the burning if sawdust as well as wood scraps to keep warm. However there was non of the factory food rubbish. Fresh food in season kept us healthy and that is true these days. You talk about benefits and food banks, we would not have reduced our dignity!! Work hard and one will survive!
August 7, 2022
One of the difference between the 70s and mow is the number of people in the country whose evolution involved warmer climes.
It is noticeable in many public sector buildings where the winter temperature is kept too hot.
Heavy clothes are not a complete solution for many.
August 7, 2022
Cleary I needed to finish the post with #irony or some other suitable meme
1970’s were tough for many 1930’s to 50’s were tougher and so on back in time. In the wise works of Monty Python “Youth of today – don’t know how lucky they are”.
August 7, 2022
I have similar experience, the difference today is we, public and private, carry SOOO much more debt than then. Government cannot raise interest costs far before the whole house falls.
You watch, after a few months of hardship and over-borrowed socialists bleating about how they can’t go on holiday to Spain, government will fold and spray more freshly printed money around.
August 7, 2022
Really? Try getting a variable rate mortgage at 9%, have it rise to 10.5% by the time you actaully move in and have it up at 15% a year later.
August 7, 2022
15% for a day as I recall. However I seem to remember the rates going up 3 times while we worked hard, lived like monks/nuns all to save a deposit.
The saving grace was full employment, in fact very safe employment, I moved around in IT roles and got on nicely.
August 7, 2022
That idiot John ERM Major (if it is not hurting it is not working). If we come out of the ERM then interest rates will have to go up even further they lied/said. This before we fell out of the ERM at vast cost to tax payers and interest rates then dropped like a stone.
I had several properties and businesses at that time. Major and Lamont cost me a couple of ÂŁmillion almost bankrupting the businesses employing about 20 at the time in the process. Still no apology from the pathetic fool.
But why did Thatcher make such an obvious idiot Chancellor & then even let him become PM and bury the Tory party for 3+ terms. Repossessed properties all over the place, broken marriages, suicides, businesses destroyed. Yet the BBC still invite this moron on as if he were some wise elder statesman.
August 7, 2022
@Lifelogic
I see that the BBC is currently giving air time to Gordon Brown.
Yes …. THAT Gordon Brown
You couldn’t make it up. đ
August 7, 2022
at least we can finally operate American built aircraft on the ÂŁ4bn carriers.
August 7, 2022
+1
August 7, 2022
+10
August 7, 2022
Bob
Indeed, mortgage rates at 8% were the norm in early 1970’s and property prices doubled in 18months, then after a few years mortgages increased rapidly to 15%, I remember at one time the rate went up 4 times in a single day such was the panic.
Simple solution to survive then was to work harder, longer, or smarter to try and compensate, no benefits available if you were working, food banks unheard of.
Many then who had over borrowed and or lost their jobs, sadly failed to keep up or cope.
A big lesson at the time that life can be cruel at times, and is not always fair, unfortunately lessons learn’t by Government and the people at the time were soon forgotten, and 20 years later we had the madness of 125% borrowings allowed against house prices, leading to another financial disaster for many.
Seems like lessons have still not been learn’t, and we then had manipulated low interest rates set for far too long, which people thought was the new norm, and they lived and borrowed accordingly.
The difference between the 1970’s and at present, many people now believe it’s ALL the governments fault, and they expect the government to come to the rescue for everything, forgetting that the Government has no money, it only has what it takes from the people, or which it borrows in their name.
August 7, 2022
Some Government polices have certainly not helped, and indeed have caused untold damage (in some cases the law of unintended consequences has also taken its toll) but lack of personal thought and responsibility by many have been also been the cause of self inflicted personal financial pain and damage.
No doubt the same lessons will need to be learn’t many times over by future generations.
History has a habit of repeating itself.
August 7, 2022
Good morning.
There is a strong feeling that we are returning to the 1970’s which, were a time of economic decline – the morning after the party that was the Swinging Sixties.
What frustrates me more is the perverse and weird fascination of the the political class and government with fringe ideologies such as environmentalism, transgenderism and control or moderation of speech. These things are unimportant to the vast majority of people, and to see politicians engage in student common room behaviour whilst things such as energy generation and supply, food production and MASS IMMIGRATION fo ignored.
At least the politicians of the 1970’s seemed to care and tried to do something, even if it was largely ineffective.
Today’s political class live in another world.
August 7, 2022
I reckon the political class have always lived in their own world.
“I always voted at my party’s call,
“And I never thought of thinking for myself at all.”
HMS Pinafore 1878
August 7, 2022
Daniel Hannan:- The miserable truth is that our leaders donât want us to have cheap energy
Politicians, in hoc to eco-extremists, have come to believe that consuming fuel is intrinsically sinful
(unless it is heating their swimming pools, heating their many houses or fuelling their private jets or Aston Martins).
Simon Hefffer:- There is nothing Conservative about Rishi Sunakâs record
His promises are undermined by the cost of living crisis and record tax burden he helped create.
Both in the Telegraph.
August 7, 2022
With a large number of people expected to freeze this winter, it would serve the government to change direction on the net zero agenda, and look out scientists who question the man-made climate change dogma.
What a ding-dong that would be.
August 7, 2022
Well said!
Knowledge of theory and problem solving skills are important but they are best coupled to experience and a good memory.
August 7, 2022
A person with good memory might remember the diagnostics put together by Larry Elliot (Guardian) and Dan Atkinson (Mail on Sunday) in their 2008 book âThe Gods that failed: How blind faith in markets has cost us our futureâ. At the time it was a powerful attack on New Labour. Having recently reread it, the same diagnostics can be applied to what the Governments since 2010 have been doing, and it is even more relevant now that the UK is out the EU.
âPlus ca change, plus câest la meme choseâ.
August 8, 2022
Hef,
You read a book by an author from the Mail! Goodness. Are you okay? How many times have you criticised people for reading the Mail?
Perhaps this heralds a new dawn of reading an eclectic mix of authors to help you draw your own view. I am proud of you.
August 8, 2022
Very good on hindsight vision these two economic expert journalists.
Not a peep from them in 2007.
August 7, 2022
The early 70s also saw Bretton Woods and the USA coming off the gold standard. Akin to the US Fed pumping 50% of the dollars ever issued into their financial system during 2020-21.
The USA sneezes – the UK catches a cold.
August 7, 2022
Correct. September 1971 saw the Smithsonian Agreement to remove gold backing for the dollar, the start of the “crawling peg” system of exchange rate erosion, and the Competition and Credit Control monetary policy at the BoE. The rising cost of the Vietnam War was a big source of inflationary pressure in the US. OPEC started increasing oil prices, partly in reaction to the implicit dollar devaluation.
August 7, 2022
to update it ‘if China goes to war – we will all get hurt’.
August 7, 2022
You mean weâd have to start buying everything from India instead of China
August 7, 2022
Just an example to confirm Andrew Neilâs point that the media is in the grip of the left wing blob that you do nothing about.
And as if by coincidence at a time when the BOEâs competence is under severe scrutiny, despite all the spin about pushing back against wokeness it is alleged an ex Mandarin with no economic experience is being lined up for a job because she would increase diversity. Nothing to do with improving its only task, managing the economy.
The current Chancellor is recommending her, so he is now in the grip of the blob,
Are you mad?
August 7, 2022
Who and what is this?
August 7, 2022
Diversity at the Bank could be increased at nil cost, harm or delay by Governor Bailey now self-identifying as a woman of colour. All it needs is a statement from him/her, a straight face and a massive display of outrage and victimhood if challenged. Millennials and more junior would certainly applaud his brave stance too.
August 7, 2022
Iâm afraid Liz truss has announced another very silly policy, to follow on from the new law to outlaw wolf whistling. She has reportedly said that all students who get straight Aâs at A-level must be interviewed by Oxford or Cambridge. Why? What business is it of ministers to instruct 2 independent universities which students they should or shouldnât interview? It also perpetuates the absurd focus on trying to cram more students into these 2 particular universities as if what mattered is where they go not what they study.
You have to be quite dim to announce a policy like this, but there are bright people such as Sir John who seem to be influencing Ms Truss, so how does a piece of nonsense like this get through?
By contrast, Sunakâs policy of moving towards a Baccalaureate type 6th form curriculum is very sensible.
August 7, 2022
Well they nearly always do get oxbridge interviews anyway already especially if from a comp. Unless that is they do not apply or they have entirely the wrong subjects such as applying to read Nat Sci with A levels in Art, Photography and Geography.
August 7, 2022
A*s not As it seems. So an A* in say sociology will guarantee an interview whereas an A in maths will not. ms Truss cannot say she is in favour of small govt but at the same time want ministers to tell universities which students they should or should not interview. Sir John should explain this to her. It reminds me of Brownâs absurd intervention 20 years ago over a student who had been turned down for a university place.
August 8, 2022
Richard, the education system knows who the top 5% across all disciplines are. They are tracked. I know someone who was crashing out of her Maths A level and left the room distraught, he got a pass and teachers mark on the exam and went to Oxford. They will find a way through to Oxbridge for some people even if they donât get the required marks. Others who didnât read the right books and look like theyâll fit to the head of the colleges ideals wonât even thought they get strings of A*s, they still donât get through. There are other high level respectable universities around the UK we need to stop believing only Oxbridge can develop the highest level people just because their PPE course gets them the controlling jobs.
August 7, 2022
I have never been able to wolf whistle myself but if this become law I might be tempted to learn. I am sure the police will give it very high priority. Unlike shoplifting, burglary, muggings, theft, fraud⊠which are all virtually ignored by our sick joke police force.
August 7, 2022
The Country is becoming increasingly lawless as the police refuse to hunt down and deter criminals. There is an explosion in rural crime, but little is being said or done about it. And Liz wants to add another fatuous offence to the statute book. As you say itâs one which is likely to attract a lot of police resource as they will be able to claim they have âsolvedâ another crime whenever they catch a wolf-whistler, which will itself be much easier and lower risk than catching a proper criminal.
I wonder whether we shouldnât privatise the police – award 3-year contracts to competing private groups and pay them according to results?
August 7, 2022
Never see a policeman anymore on the beat, but once in a blue moon I might see a police community support officerâŠ..and the criminals know it
August 7, 2022
Everything is being policed except crime, someone once said.
August 7, 2022
@ Richard1 – the inflexibility inherent in Baccalaureate type 6th form curriculum, demanding as it does proficiency in a range of subjects it sets rather than as chosen by the students themselves makes for a very bad system in my view. There may be advantages associated with its emphasis on skill development, but those can be had if needed/desired without the debilitating constraints of the rest of it.
(Sunak seems to be grasping at any issue at all where he can promote some ideas that suggest new thinking. Few or none of his hoped-for bandwagons seem to roll though.)
August 7, 2022
I think it would be better. It would give a more rounded education. GCSE doesnât take children to nearly a high enough standard in maths and science for them to be regarded as being properly educated and competitive for employment in todayâs world.
August 7, 2022
That is precisely the objection of course, a “rounded education” according to the made-up notions of those in control pro tem, demanding a range that some otherwise capable people might not be able to meet but who could excel in a narrower field.
August 8, 2022
Richard1, I disagree one child took Maths, Further Maths, Chemistry and Physics at A level which one would you want them to drop to take English, a subject that they didnât enjoy and did not want to pursue, both science subjects required a high level of English essay writing skills as did the Maths degree.
Most A levels have a higher level of English skills within them from biology to geography both facilitating subjects.
This micro-managing of reducing choice and forcing round pegs into square holes and creating unhappy students forced into A level classes they have no interest in will bring down the education of the others in the class that are capable of higher level teaching in those lessons.
August 7, 2022
She has also made a big mistake in stating she will cut taxes not ‘give handouts’ as this is the ‘Conservative way’. Of course it is. When she has a sensible moment to think, instead of ideology she will quickly realise that cutting a bit off income tax and NIC with a tiny cut of VAT on fuel will not fit the bill as the poorest don’t pay much in the way of those taxes anyway and the bills coming in will be huge. There will also be delay in doing it, whatever she says. She also says she will temporarily stop the green taxes on fuels (not permanently, so confirming her membership of the blob). Another U-turn will come when she sees that her ideas will do nothing for the hardest hit, but will help the best off, in true Tory tradition, but the public won’t wear it when they see their poor and elderly relatives and friends having to choose between eating or heating.
August 7, 2022
I see the Truss camp is now squirming and saying she has been mis-understood. No she hasn’t, whatever spin they try to put on it, we saw her say it. Mordaunt would be better advising Truss to be more sensible with her words than trying to blame the public for Truss stupidity. She needs to think her policies through, not make it up on the hoof or revert to standard Tory dogma and try to back out afterwards. This only shows what she really thinks.
August 7, 2022
It might be a blessing in disguise should all ‘A’ pass students get an interview at Oxbridge colleges, perhaps we might see a halt on Chinese students(spies and thieves of intellectual property)?
August 7, 2022
Agree â only allow foreign students to attend private universities ie not taxpayer funded universities
August 7, 2022
It is always possible to choose historical examples to suit oneâs argument. What about the high inflation rate after Mrs Thatcher came to power in 1979. It took 3 years and a lot of pain to come down. More to the point the high inflation of 1990-92 that led to her downfall. If Liz Truss becomes prime minister we will see the same pattern and Tories will lose the next election.
August 7, 2022
Mrs Thatcher was brought down in 1990, because of her alienation from the EU.
August 7, 2022
The Conservatives have become as deceitful and undemocratic as the other main parties. They all lied in their manifestos, over recent years. None of them deserve to govern, but FPTP keeps them secure, and they know it!
August 7, 2022
@ Shirley M – FPTP keeps them secure only if people keep casting votes in their favour. (It is PR systems that are better at keeping the rejected in power as the third party has to do very badly indeed to be excluded.)
August 7, 2022
+1
August 7, 2022
FPTP has had parties in power with just 36.9% and 35.2% vote shares. Majority governments who were rejected by nearly 2/3rds of those who voted.
August 7, 2022
@ Peter Parsons – but as explained by David Deutsch on the AV referendum (discoverable on YouTube), the key point of a system is that voters can eject those in power. With PR, the third party likely would join the party winning (in your example) 36.9% and 35.2% vote shares or might instead ally with the second party. The third party is always likely under PR to win enough seats to have a strong claim to being the coalition partner in perpetuity, whatever voters decide.
(Certainly, third parties can fall from grace, as happened to Germany’s FDP earlier this century, but it had enjoyed a very long run in government.)
August 7, 2022
Try to name a government with a one party majority under PR. The closest is probably Adenauer in 1957, whose CDU secured 215 votes out of 240 needed for a majority, which came from the CSU, giving the coalition 270 seats. It was the only election where there were just 2 parties in government. People get a government they didn’t vote for under PR all the time.
August 7, 2022
There is an opposition in Parliament also elected.
August 8, 2022
@Mark, look to Holyrood. The SNP managed a single party majority in 2011.
August 8, 2022
Oh come on PP the SNP…?
You will be giving us Italy as a good example of PR next
Hilarious
August 7, 2022
it’s only fear of the unknown openly socialist/lefty policies that might get aired.
August 7, 2022
+1
August 7, 2022
The main point about inflation is that it is embedded. Sir John sings that it will fall in time, but ignores the fact that even if it does get back to 2 percent (a forlorn dream) it will be on top of the increases already dug in. People will be worse off whatever happens as incomes will not keep up and this inflation is not wage driven anyway, but mostly greed driven.
August 7, 2022
@ graham1946 – do not overlook the possibility for deflation. A collapse in world trade as barriers go up allied to a collapse in domestic demand in the major economies could facilitate the conditions for generally falling prices.
August 8, 2022
If, maybe. If Aunt Mary had balls she’d be uncle Fred. Let me know when that happens.
August 7, 2022
All of your recent blogs have been confined to the debating points of the Conservative leadership election. But we still see no sign of what most non London liberal voters want to happen: outright criticism of the Net Zero insanity (which both candidates want to continue with); firm immediate action on the mass cross channel illegal immigration; an unequivocal declaration and policy initiatives (including abandonment of the appalling online harms legislation) bringing a return to individual freedoms; commitment to evidence based policy and sound financial and economic evaluation of all major programme and project proposals. To coin a phrase you like to refer to âwe donât believe youâ in your belief that Liz Truss is going to be any better than her two predecessors.
August 7, 2022
Can’t disagree, MPC.
August 7, 2022
…and everybody staying in the ECHRs
August 7, 2022
Direct implementation of the ECHR is written in the text of the Belfast Agreement.
No politician who understands the reality of the consequences of withdrawing from the ECHR is prepared to advocate doing so.
August 7, 2022
You are being disingenuous to the authors of the Belfast Agreement as the lines quote side by side ââECHR and any Bill of RightsâââŠtherefore if one is removed the other becomes supreme; if we leave the Council of Europe ECHR the automatic fallback is the UK Bill of Rights
August 8, 2022
To quote:
“The British Government will complete incorporation into Northern Ireland law of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), with direct access to the courts, and remedies for breach of the Convention, including power for the courts to overrule Assembly legislation on grounds of inconsistency.”
No mention of any equivalent Bill of Rights in that text anywhere.
August 8, 2022
Very well said Glen.
PP keeps posting this claim and it’s fake news.
August 7, 2022
Our current inflation has nothing to do with the taxation policies of today nor the 70sâŠand everything to do with energy & fuel markets driven by the insane policies of ânet-zeroâ âŠwe need to realise that the cause of our woes is ânet-zeroâ
August 7, 2022
Glen, do you really think that some events in Ukraine have not had any impact?
August 7, 2022
The war in Ukraine did not happen in 2021, and did not cause the massive jump in prices in the autumn of 2021, capped only by Ofgem’s limit, and even back then the promise of a maximum price rise in February 2022.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it is clear that net zero’s recklessly brief scheduled targets can no longer be sustained. Putin cannot be blamed for the European continent’s sheer damn foolishness in relying on him – an avowed enemy of the EU – for energy provision; nor is he responsible for the equal foolishness of the UK relying also on stubbornly resentful continental nations for our own gas and electric current.
August 7, 2022
mancunius :
Correct and I would even go as far as to say that I do not believe that Putin would have invaded Ukraine if the German Russiaphile Chancellor had not made the EU so dependent upon Russian fossil fuels and useless renewables.
The EU were warned by President Trump and they laughed at him.
August 7, 2022
Putin’s invasion has taken advantage of bad energy policy in the West that has left them with few options to push back against it. It was precisely the failure of renewables last year that led to inadequate volumes of gas in storage for the winter, creating an immediate supply squeeze. Plans for further Russia dependence via Nordstream 2 were well advanced with no proper alternative in sight. Note that supply via the Ukraine actually held up well and is still running. The cuts in supply were via pipelines that do not cross the Ukraine at all.
August 7, 2022
I believe the lead time to our increases in inflation, is in advance of 12 months prior to the Ukraine war Feb 2022
August 7, 2022
yes we sent a lot of weaponry which is probably already re-ordered providing work.
August 8, 2022
Glen didn’t claim that heffy.
August 7, 2022
and a captain facing the wrong way on the bridge!
August 7, 2022
Glen, do you really think that Brexit has not had any impact?
thisismoney.co.uk 28/04/2022 âMost of UK inflation is caused by Brexitâ, former BoE policymaker claims as Government delays full import checks again until end of 2023.
A quick look at the time series of the UK inflation rate (ons.gov.uk) shows the CPIH had been below 2.5% for years (at least since 2012) with low values down to 0.8% in Decâ20. Then from Janâ21 (end of free movement of people, goods and services) the rate increases continuously wit 2.4% in 06/21, 3% in 08/21, 3.8% in 10/21, 4.8% in 12/21, 5.5% in 02/22, 7.8% in 04/22, 8.2% in 06/22. All that linked to ânet zeroâ, Glen? Or to the BoEâs âpoor decisions? Obviously nothing linked whatsoever to Brexit, I guess?
Reply No nothing to do with Brexit. You should see what happened to EU inflation over the same period
August 7, 2022
This governments policy of net-zero and its stated green revolution started when Boris became PM in Nov 2019
August 7, 2022
Reply to reply: if it is the same problem in most countries why your attacks on the BoE?
After all the BoE only deals with âlendingâ (the monetary bit of the economy), the Government with âspendingâ (the fiscal bit). How comes that most countries are in the same situation, could not be the BoE policy affecting the EU27, the US, Canada, Australia, âŠ?
August 7, 2022
@ hefner – the central banks in the countries you cite have been making the same sort of mistakes as the Bank.
August 7, 2022
Why similar inflation in America?
Come on hef.
August 8, 2022
Oh it’s all gone quiet.
August 7, 2022
The big differences between today and the 1970s is that we didnât have in the 1970s the communist fifth column in powerful positions in Parliament/government, the civil service, quangos, the judiciary, education, institutions and the MSM as we have today.
We had no PC/Woke/Authoritarian Left curbing free speech and comedy with people losing their livelihoods for what they said.
We had no CAGW/Net Zero communist driven cult propagated by our state broadcaster denying the existence of any climate changes before the Industrial Revolution and intending to unilaterally destroy our economy through zeroing our 1% contribution to global emissions of plant food.
We had no massive immigration either legally or illegally.
August 7, 2022
PS : The BBC were telling us we were heading for another ice age.
August 7, 2022
And the BBC begrudgingly had to report that the coral was in recovery on great barrier reef three days agoâŠ.no news since
August 7, 2022
That’s because polar bears are doing well, and there have been fewer than expected hurricanes and storms so far this year.
August 7, 2022
Spot On
August 7, 2022
Neither did we have 50 percent going to university to be indoctrinated. We had people learning trades, doing useful things not being made to feel inadequate if they didn’t go to uni to study some socialist crap. Now we have a skills shortage, but plenty telling us woke nonsense.
August 7, 2022
‘The big differences between today and the 1970s is that we didnât have in the 1970s the communist fifth column in powerful positions in Parliament/government, the civil service, quangos, the judiciary, education, institutions and the MSM as we have today.’
I beg to differ.
August 7, 2022
Paul. To be honest I’ve got past caring who gets in. Nothing much will change all the time the WEF and other vested interest groups are governing and setting the agenda. Can you imagine how much worse it will all get if China invades Taiwan?
August 7, 2022
And North Korea chancing its arm too.
All much too scary.
Do the peoples of these countries want this, or is it the insecurities of their leaders and sicophant followers?
August 7, 2022
Iâve came to the conclusion that our government(s) should hold referendum if it wishes to have a political union, treaty or alliance with any other country, confederation or organisation other than that of trade in products and services
August 7, 2022
gc :
Agreed.
And referendums on immigration and Net Zero.
August 7, 2022
“Today we will have a recession if we persevere with higher taxes and a severe monetary tightening…” – only a month to go now before corrective action, assuming it is Liz not Sunak and she is as sound as indications signal.
We are very likely to have a recession anyway though, are we not? The U.S.A. may well be in recession now.
August 7, 2022
Unfortunately nobody believes anything the politicians say. Look at all the Vows being rolled out. Fishi is going to sort out the channel crossings, itâs a vow. 12 years and now it is a vow. They are as worthless and meaningless as the Tory manifesto. Rishi refuses to sort the WASPI situation when Boris promised to âlook into itâ probably during a party, he may have given it a thought. Never mind. My wife is still ÂŁ50,000 out of pocket. Never mind the MPâs got their pay rise so all is well in Westminster. Always money to support war wherever it may be. Always money for foreign aid. Always endless buckets of money for legal aid to support those that wish us harm. I am afraid the British political class has lost all credibility.
Get us out of the ECHR
Repeal the Human Rights Act, replace it with a bill of rights relevant to 2022.
Legislate to recognise economic migrants as such and not refugees
Legislate to stop anyone arriving here illegally to be able to bring their newly discovered extended family here. Before it is to late.
Compensate the WASPI women as promised, instead of fighting the ombudsman.
Allow forgotten Veterans with a campaign service medal earned during the Queenâs reign to wear the Platinum medal. At their own expense of course. Wouldnât want to redirect money from legal aid to support those that havenât supported the country.
Not really asking much is it Sir John. Perhaps you could put it in a blog as advice to the new PM.
August 7, 2022
No, don’t compensate WASPI women, unless men are also compensated for getting the state pension 5 years later than women.
August 7, 2022
BW
Well said, some hard hitting observations. The only thing I would add was the Climate Change Act it is totally out of touch with the real world, and a concentrated attack on wasteful government.
August 7, 2022
Lynn Alden has pointed out the similarities with the finances of the major economies of post-World War â Ą.âCountries had build up massive debts funding the war and the solution was to deliberately run inflation high for some years to erode the debt.âGiven the solution to every deflating bubble and shock of the last few decades has been to increase the money supply, I expect running inflation high will be coupled with âMoney printer go Brrrrrâ.
I’ve been reading Steve Baker’s old blog posts on Conservative Home.âIn June 2010, he wrote:
âThe Government does not have an inexhaustible horn of plenty.âGovernment has nothing to give without first taking.âGovernment funds itself by taking today, by borrowing against a promise to take a greater sum tomorrow and by debasing the currency.âWe have reached the limits of all three.â
â â https://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2010/06/labours-legacy-is-a-choice-between-unpleasant-cuts-in-public-spending-a-sovereign-debt-crisis-or-cur.html
Clearly, the limits knew no bounds.
Four years later, November 2014, Steve Baker spoke in the âMoney Creation and Societyâ debate:
âAfter 15 years of studying these matters, and now having made it to the Treasury Committee, I am ever more convinced that there is no way to change the present monetary order until the ideas behind it have been tested to destructionâand I do mean tested to destruction. This is an extremely serious issue. It will not change until it becomes apparent that the ideas behind the system are untenable.â
â â https://hansard.parliament.uk//Commons/2014-11-20/debates/14112048000001/MoneyCreationAndSociety?highlight=destruction#contribution-14112048000145
We await destruction of the present monetary order.âThen perhaps we can replace it with some tenable ideas.
August 7, 2022
maybe its destruction will happen by accident, rather design!
August 7, 2022
WONDERFUL Simon Hefner article in the Telegraph today!!
âThere is nothing Conservative about Rishi Sunakâs recordâ
Much praise for JR.
And VERY good ideas!
August 7, 2022
He does very well despite his self admission of his troubles with maths/science O levels – his article on Friday or Saturday.
August 7, 2022
Why do you need science/maths exams to think sensibly? Presumably all the scientists supporting CAGW have such, but are they sensible?
August 7, 2022
God help us !
August 7, 2022
The lessons I draw, are that the Conservatives shouldn’t be anywhere near government, and neither should Labour or Lib-Dem. You are all useless.
Why don’t you look at the successful countries and try to emulate their success ?
The best we can hope for is a coalition of Lib-Dem with someone else, and that they force through some form of proportional representation.
After that, we need a government of the right who will take a knife to the vast numbers of immigrant free-loaders living here.
August 7, 2022
Which successful countries do you suggest, MWB?
August 7, 2022
SM.
Switzerland perhaps ?
Look at the exchange rate of GBP/CHF over the last 50 years.
August 7, 2022
Meanwhile, all the immigrant free loaders should be paid for out of foreign aid, reducing the amount awarded to their claimed countries.
August 7, 2022
Lib-noDems …..really? Had a very liquid lunch, have you?
August 7, 2022
Yes, remember it well, Martin bank and now you in the summer of 1976 which leads on to IMF bailout and winter of discontent, it always the same, its was only another money experiment to make rich people richer, as you can see, they have not perfect the money experiment yet. Mayybe this time is different.
August 7, 2022
Off topic, shock, horror:
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/2022/08/07/brexit-fantasy-set-to-unravel-with-johnsons-departure/
“Brexit fantasy set to unravel with Johnsonâs departure”
âOver the next decade, as the UK adjusts to the TCA, the UK will have 1.3 per cent lower productivity”
1.3 per cent – gosh! As repeatedly stated, the economic impact of EU membership was always marginal.
August 7, 2022
What does it mean. Well, this how it works, a well to do person goes to the bank with his plan, he see some one behind the counter in a room or the main branch, put his plan to the bank which is done by his accountant and friends, it go into the banks system and come out agree light.
Man in street goes into the bank, maybe puts his plan by email or see some one at a branch, it come out agree heavy, high prices and with strings. That there Mr Redwood is what needs leveling up as you say, dont you think.
To me that is the right place to do the leveling up, tec people come to this country fill in a form with their ideal to the government and some come away with money from 25 billion pound government grant system for technology, where is man in street 25 billion in grants from the government and once you have money from government it easy to get money from banks. Most will not make it in tec like any business, but that,s what banks are for.
August 7, 2022
Barclay ‘s introduced us to credit cards in 1966 and added to the cumulative inability to classically control the money supply via a central bank. Buy now pay later was previously frowned upon, regarded for poor desperate folk.
It was no wonder that it played havoc with inflation controls coinciding as it did with the introduction of affordable white goods, TV and Vhs rentals and demand to aspire to home ownership.
The 1970s oil crisis affected everything as precious petrol was already highly taxed. Labour could not control the unions and finances going begging to the IMF. In 1979 MT became PM and explained like cash in your pocket you had to live within your means invoking her parents shop experience.
August 7, 2022
I forgot to add affordable Motor Car ownership, esp with home grown Mini, Cortina etc.
August 7, 2022
The conservative party seems to be “en vacances” since last month and like Boris completely unaware of the impending cost of living energy crisis that Gordon Brown is warning in 6 weeks. It is already happening as folk enjoy the sunshine before they realise invisible hard rain coming in the economic radar.
August 7, 2022
“we will have a recession if we persevere with higher taxes and a severe monetary tightening at the same time as the real income hit from energy.”
Arguably it is too late to avoid the recession, and tax-cutting policies will only help if the benefits system is cut down to impel the unemployed to get a job rather than sit around and wait, which corrodes willpower and the work ethic.
We can also mitigate the hit from energy if we admit that the Kyoto/Paris/Glasgow agendas are unaffordable for the present, stop bashing the oil and gas producers, encourage them to drill more and faster, create more national gas storage facilities, mine coal and frack away like blazes. (At the same time the longterm goals can be pursued, more high-powered offshore turbines, energy storage batteries etc. But they will not make much difference until at least the mid 2030s. We cannot wait until then to heat ourselves in winter.)
All those much-vaunted ‘international economists’ – all with such odd names and oddly shared crypto-marxist notions – are so fond of citing Keynes, but they forget his most important dictum: ‘When the facts change, I change my mind.’ Their views never change, and always – when you examine their lives and beliefs or lack of belief – coincide with their own interests.
As for the civil service – it needs to stop servicing its own comfort while standing in the way of the population’s needs.
August 7, 2022
mancunius :
I’m afraid “high powered offshore turbines and energy storage batteries” will not be working by the 2030s and never will. Wind energy will never provide “cheap energy available at the flick of a switch” as described in the Government’s/BEIS’ Net Zero Strategy. It will be intermittent and with expensive volatile pricing controlled by smart meters.
August 7, 2022
So civil disobedience and non-payment movements now springing up.
Well what do you expect when there is no democratic means of changing the course of “puppet” governments.
Now for history, why did the British fight British in a foreign land and enact the 2nd amendment.
Treason laws need to be re-instigated.
I expect no changes.
August 7, 2022
Dear Sir John, I cannot remember exactly when the Bank of England and City economists told us that the money supply was no longer a meaningful statistical concept. Possibly it was a little before the 2007-08 banking crash .
Suddenly, the concept has been not merely revived but homed in on by interested parties who are whingeing that the money supply is plunging. Just as consumers, lenders and borrowers are bracing themselves for inflation rising to a late 2022 peak neared 20 per cent than 10 per cent, they say it is folly for the Bank to raise Bank Rate to only 2 percentage points lower than an inflation-neutral rate.
Where is the evidence of meaningful harm? Are some hedge funds finding it harder to rise extra leverage? Have some lost money? If so, I am sorry but this is not a serious economic issue. Frankly, it is a pathetic sectional interest to presume that the purpose of monetary policy is to sustain asset prices. rather than to curb inflation for ordinary people.
Of course, the surge in hydrocarbon prices just before and after President Putin’s latest war should wash out either side of New Year but, as others have noted, supermarket price rises in almost anything except fresh home-grown food are accelerating, even where there is no obvious strong link to fuel or cereal prices. One key reason is the fall in sterling , induced by the Bank putting asset prices before economic welfare.
August 7, 2022
I was around in the 1970s so let me remind you the main driving force for the inflation of the mid-1970s. Edward Heath was frightened by the rise in unemployment to 5%, up from the post-war norm of 3%. He chose to cure the problem in neo-Keynesian style, with a massive hike – in the 1972 budget – in the amount spend on infrastructure and other public sector capital projects. The resultant huge deficit was financed by printing money, resulting in a massive increase in the money supply. Public sector capital projects usually take a year or two to reach their peak rate of spend, so the resultant inflation was huge but slow to build. Needless to say, Wilson and Healey poured petrol on the flames when they took office in 1974. Then, as now, the good advice that was not followed was “If you’re spending too much, spend less.” Politicians, Conservative and Labour, just cannot stop the State from living beyond its means. You set a terrible example.
August 9, 2022
Don’t be silly John, History is an art subject Not a science!
Reply I also studied Economics and Investment
August 10, 2022
i Know , which is why I am trying to learn from your economics expertise , but really this is a comment aimed at those who say that arts is a worthless degree .Many have studied in various fields which the degree does not suggest due to its title, but because everything is linked and cannot be taken in isolation ,students need to learn and refer to other disciplines . For example I studied ethics, but without reference to law and medical science I could not make an argument.