Below you will find my latest article for Conservative Home:
Rishi Sunak is a clever man with a good life story. I thought he was badly treated over his wife’s wealth and tax affairs. Jealousy is no part of Conservatism, where we welcome people of all backgrounds, rich and poor, achievers and inheritors, people who can make itĀ for themselves and people who need help. In office I always found him polite, willing to explain his position and interested in what colleagues had to say. I have never had any personal differences or problems with him.
I also found myself unwillingly drawing into more and more disagreement with the analysis he offered and with the actions he took as Chancellor. He started well amidst great popularity when he rightly backed and developed plans to offset the big economic damage of lockdown. I welcomed some money creation by the Bank in March 2020 and wanted a scheme to subsidise jobs whilst people were banned from working. Disappointment first set in when Rishi declined to treat self employed and small business people with the same generosity in all cases, leavingĀ some smaller businesses at risk and threatening us with reduced capacity when we reopened.
I took issue with the increasingly pessimistic forecasts coming from the OBR which he accepted andĀ from the Treasury which he signed off. In the budget debate of March 2021 I stressed that the forecasts were suggestingĀ too large a budget deficit and borrowing based on low field estimates of tax revenue. There was no need, I argued, for a Ā£12bn tax hike through National Insurance.Ā A year later we see the central government deficit came down by a whoppingĀ Ā£131bn compared to forecast, and tax revenue surged bn Ā£77bn over estimate despite or because ofĀ no tax rate rises that year.Ā Rishi became a high tax Chancellor based on these views. Why did he do that?Ā He told us he believed in low taxes yet spent his time in office putting in new taxes and raising the rates of old ones. He could instead have put in a growth strategy, challenged unrealistically gloomy forecasts and showed the power of selective tax cuts.
I voted against the National Insurance rise. Why did he decide that the missing Ā£12bn he thought he saw in the accounts should be provided in this way? It was a clear violation of a Manifesto pledge. It was aĀ tax on work and on business at a time when we needed to encourage both. He knew he needed to impose more discipline on the spending, particularly on the runaway budgets for test and trace and for covid loans, but found this difficult. He correctly agreed that the extra money going into the NHS needed to be tied down to specific spending needs that would boost the workforce and tackle the backlogs but did not deliver. It is surprising given thisĀ that on his watch the taxpayer paid large sums to the private health sector in the UK to use their capacity for NHS work, yet failed to use that capacity fully to keep the waiting lists down.
Rishi started his campaign for leader defending the Treasury orthodoxy. No tax cuts could be afforded. The package he had announced to help offset energy bills was the answer. He would fight inflation as his single crucial priority. This was difficult to believe. He had, after all, signed off a further Ā£150 billion of money creation and bond buying extending right through 2021, well into the period of rapid recovery. This was likely to prove inflationary. He pledged full taxpayer and Treasury backing for the Bank for any losses they might make on the large quantities of bonds they bought at deliberately elevated prices. These wereĀ not the actions of a cautious man preoccupied by the threat of inflation.
Under the pressure of the campaign he then shifted position. Removing VAT on domestic fuel was a good idea after all. In office he had always resisted VAT cuts and seemed to take the view that we could not change VAT in Northern Ireland as we wished. He didĀ not favour resolving this through unilateral action.
He reasonably has also shifted to theĀ view that we could borrow a bitĀ more this year anyway as energy prices were looking worse. He now goes along with UK legislation to resolve the Northern Ireland protocol though still thinks the EU is about to do a decent deal with us, which several years of negotiations has shown to be unlikely.
Throughout the leadership campaign he has struggled to come over as Conservative.Ā Where we want a lower tax society he in office put in major tax rises on incomes, profits, employment, energyĀ and digital services. He has allowed or supported major expansions of state activity, adopted Labour’s windfall tax and looked happy with an ever widening range of controls, rules, taxes and subsidies. Conscious he wasĀ not appearing to be Conservative enough he then adopted some punk Conservative proposals that he thought might please. There was the wish to charge people Ā£10 if they didĀ not turn up for a GP appointment, which annoyed many Conservatives who think the problem is more the other way round, actually getting one without cancellation by the NHS. He said he will double the number of deportations of foreign criminals without explaining how this would work given the trouble the government he belonged to had in handling criminal activity allied to migration.
I have no reason to doubt the poll findings and Conservative Home’s surveys which suggest Liz will win with around twice as many votes as Rishi. If that proves to be roughly right it will confirm that the Conservative party is in a mood for positive and radical action to bring inflation down and try to see off a long and deep recession to follow. Rishi’s strong suit was said by his followers to be his economic and business understanding and experience. It is I fear members appraisal of his time in office that has proved his encumbrance. He did put up those taxes. He did back the Bank, triggering an inflation almost three times target before Russia invaded Ukraine. He has changed his stance a bit during the campaign about whether we need to fight recession as well as inflation.
I think the senior people in our party who pushed Rishi forward and tried to make him the shoe in establishment candidate did his cause harm. Their enthusiasm for an economic Ā policy which had given us 10% inflation and may give us a recession was tone deaf to the mood of members and the country. Claiming it was what Margaret Thatcher would have done was so silly and wrong. By digging Rishi in behind Ā a system and policy that had misfired Ā they did not allow room to offer something better, let alone allow any reflection on what has gone awry economically in recent months. When we need change and improvement an attempted establishment stitch up is a bad look.
Conservatives want a better deal for all those who work hard, who set up small businesses, who battle on in self employment, who want to grow the economy and create more and better paid jobs. Raising productivity and helping more places to catch up with London’s dominant economic performance requires more freedoms, more private enterprise, and lower taxes as well as more transport,water and energy capacity. Socialism penalises such people and makes the outlook worse. You cannot tax us out of recession though you can tax us into one. You cannot regulate prices down, you need to encourage more output and supply. Rishi flew too close to Treasury orthodoxy and got too keen on Labour ideas to win more member votes. Liz will speed more people on their personal journeys as training, education, self employment, opportunity come to touch many more.
August 23, 2022
Good morning.
The bottom line for both Rushi and Liz is – Can they win General Elections ?
Time will tell. And you don’t have much left.
August 23, 2022
MB,
I think there is so much resentment of what various Conservative governments have inflicted on this country that it would take an almighty change in their fortune to enable them to win a general election.
Cameron was a Lib Dem who ran away when his plans went wrong. May was a Machiavellian schemer. Johnson was a chancer who used the idea of Brexit to get elected, then worked to ingratiate himself with foreign big shots who could help him in later life.
Neither of the two candidates seem to me to have what it takes to turn things around.
August 23, 2022
A comment on Conservative Home :-
āThis leadership contest has highlighted the answer to the paradox of the socialist policies under a Conservative government with an 80 seat majority.ā…..
āIf you Conservatives want to win in 2024 you need to actually carry out some conservative policies.ā
The folk that voted an 80 seat majority will be very angry at what they got in return. Over a decade of empty promises. Issues ignored or kicked into the long grass – Brexit/NI , illegal arrivals, violent crime etc etc.
Maybe the Conservative Party will split with the centrists aligning with Lib Dem and Labour and the traditional Conservatives in a separate party. It would be for the best. The Conservative Party had a long innings and is now serving no useful purpose. It would sort out the careerists and chancers who find it a useful base for operations . British politics will be more fragmented and times will be tougher. However, a massive change is long overdue.
August 23, 2022
Peter.
Surely the ‘danger’ of the Con Party splitting has long passed.
It was the E.U. sceptics, versus the ‘remainers’ battle that threated it and the ‘brexiteers’ won.
I also am very disappointed at how badly we have been governed with that huge majority.
Boris should have been toppled much sooner.
Surely SUNAK is the one who has pushed ‘socialist policies’.
Truss is offering ‘some conservative policies’, as does Sir John and Lord Frost, to name just a few.
Don’t you think that the Labour party is in more danger of splitting at the moment?
I don’t know where you are coming from but personally I would like to see some more genuinely conservative M.P.s elected to ‘The House’ from those terrible, ‘far right alternative parties’ !!
Well that isn’t going to happen overnight. They are fighting each other and anyway proportional representation is a bad idea.
So for the time being this lot is the best we can hope for !!
August 23, 2022
The Brexiteers won? I know they keep saying that.
All I see was an incomplete agreement that was rushed through with no attempt to address much unfinished business. Further issues were ignored or simply kicked into the long grass.
Blairites are still firmly entrenched. There is little difference between Conservative, Lib Dem or Labour Blairites. Cameron always wanted to be the heir to Blair.
A genuine contest would be best; Bugginās turn seems more likely.
August 24, 2022
Proportional representation is real democracy
August 26, 2022
The trouble is that the alternative is a socialist government. The conservatives know that to get re-elected they only need to stand one step to the right of the socialists.
August 23, 2022
Its not just the individuals although dire, the policies over 12 years have taken this country into the pits….
And the alternative is Corbyn, Starmer, Mick Lynch…..what do we prefer death by slow torture or bullet wounds?
August 23, 2022
No it aint. We don’t just want election winners, we want someone competent to run the country for once.
August 23, 2022
graham1946 AGREED.
August 23, 2022
Oh how true, Graham.
August 23, 2022
If you cannot win elections you don’t get to run the country, irrespective of who or what for.
August 24, 2022
Better for the country to lose on crap policies than to be elected to do them and even make a hash of that.
August 24, 2022
We elected a government that, even by our own jind hosts admission, has either ignored or renegade on their promises.
From a political party view, winning elections is the number one game. For us, it is simply taking a chance that they will keep their word.
Our vote is the only power we have and we do not use it. At least wisely.
August 23, 2022
Well said Graham, we do not want or need the green fraud or anymore ill thought policies pushed by those who do not understand the limits of todays sciences.
August 23, 2022
Maybe – but neither are going to change current government policy on ECHRs, Cross Channel Immigration, Lords, NIP, HS2, Fisheries or Net-Zero
August 23, 2022
Yesterday’s 1295 dinghy migrants will be kept warm in hotels through the coming winter while the rest of us have to pay Ā£100 per week.
August 23, 2022
glen – are you sure? I am hoping.
August 23, 2022
Another 1,295 illegals came over yesterday – yes, that’s is just ONE DAY’S number. And not a peep out of Truss as to how she will realistically send them ALL back. She will obviously be another hopeless failure. Britain is doomed while the useless Tories remain in power – and if you vote Conservative then YOU ARE COMPLICIT in this.
August 23, 2022
The Reform Party still looks good
August 23, 2022
The Reform party is the only option. Labour will be no better.
August 23, 2022
The problem is that things will be so bad by 2024 that no party will want to win the election. Some politicians may pretend to want to win but looking at the longer term and the damage to the country and ruined economy may very well opt to hang onto their seats if they can but partywise lose the election.
August 23, 2022
Itās a cushy gig getting paid regardless in shadow government in opposition
August 23, 2022
My take away from this piece is that the Conservative Party establishment is entitled and socialist in outlook, contrary to the grassroots which are conservative. That may not have been the author’s intention, but that’s what I picked up from reading this.
I wonder if Truss wants/will be able to swing things towards the grassroots against an entrenched and determined internal opposition?
August 23, 2022
Does this article address the real issues that are tearing this nation apart? No, of course they don’t. Tory MPs have never addressed the real issues which I fully understand. Their myopic focus on all things economic is deliberate avoidance of issues which are far more contentious. They have to tread a careful path relative to their Labour brethren who enjoy protection from their thug Client State. And there’s the innate problem. State power is out of control and the State doesn’t give a toss if we know it or not
Is Truss or Sunak the answer? No. They’re Establishment politicians focused on the continuation what we’ve seen since 1997. Race, gender and sexuality weaponised by Neo-Socialist insiders to destroy Britain, its freedoms and the total rearrangement of our public and private affairs.
Will Truss depolitcise our country and expand the civil space and purge the Neo-Marxist progressive cancer that threatens to tear out its soul? No, of she won’t because that would be a declaration of war against a more powerful enemy both in DP Washington and the Labour’s public sector
1000 migrants rocked up yesterday on our Southern shores. We have a Tory government and they don’t give a rat’s ass because they don’t have to. Morality ie doing the right thing has been destroyed
Only Farage has had any success against the progressive left because he chose to overturn the established order
August 23, 2022
O couldn’t agree more Dom in your comments regarding Farage. My God. He is the only one highlighting the situation regarding out of control illegal immigration. The numbers are increasing just as he predicted and there are now more white eastern Europeans who have no good reason to be here other than to help the criminal activity already known to be going on. Again nearly all young fit males what is going on and the fact that this government clearly isn’t bothered is an utter disgrace and when we become a cesspit of crime ( getting there quickly) we will know who to hold to account. We are expected to work our arsed off for the rest of the world while having all the things we’ve worked for over generations slowly stripped away. Words fail me.
August 23, 2022
@Dom @fus
When we decide to visit anywhere in this disappearing country of ours(?) the first thing I do is check the recent Crime Map and Crime statistics – bizarre as it is – to save a relaxing and enjoyable mini break turn out to be a nightmare if your car is broken into or worse – as ours was some years ago in France.
Before CV19 struck we visited a small b&b in the rural East Midlands and within the hour witnessed 2 vans robbing a new build house where the owners had left that day to holiday abroad.
Rural communities are under attack from the usual suspects but policing is now historic, non-existent. So bad is crime that it’s daylight robbery and worse, seriously out of control.
Drugs are the catalyst but there are crimes that were nonos like against women and children, vulnerable elderly and killing police. Unsurprisingly recruiting Police is uphill and recruiting graduates expect hot-desking not hot footing or a comfy BMW to “catch” criminals who are then let off.
Everyone is expected to be their own policeman but without the training, resources or backup, similar to when we were working in 3rd world banana republics 50 years ago.
August 23, 2022
A Government’s first duty is Defence of the Realm. The CONs have utterly failed to carry out this basic duty …. and I have come to the conclusion that it’s because they DON’T WANT TO.
I suspect that during the BRINO negotiations, a quiet deal was done with the EU to take “our fair share” of the illegal migrants who flooded into the EU after Merkel stupidly opened the door.
August 23, 2022
Agree – We don’t believe or trust them
August 23, 2022
+ many FUS – you hit the nail on the head!
August 23, 2022
+1
August 23, 2022
Actually 1,290 illegals arrived yesterday, in Dover alone .
August 23, 2022
on 27 – — YES 27 boats accounted for at Dover. Shows how well the French are stopping it. Once in the water, cast off and they leave them to it.
August 23, 2022
Standard coach 63 seats therefore = Twenty coaches required at short notice to transport them from the beach to immigration welcome centreā¦.when did we now we needed 20 coaches and drivers, 1295 pizzas, 1295 simcards/phones, 1295 toiletries, 1295 beds, etc etc,
1295 is the same number of soldiers in a UK Battle Group
August 23, 2022
It must be costing far more than Ā£5m a day to keep these illegals now.
August 23, 2022
Good Morning,
Conservative Principles…. now remind me, I used to see those around somewhere but it’s been such a long time..
Rishi Sunak – – PPE 1st from Oxford, Fulbright, MBA Stanford, Goldman Sachs, Hedge Fund maanager – FAILED at the test of HM Treasury.
Now who could Ms Truss find in the PCP to do what’s necessary to the Treasury and BoE?
PS. How long shall we wait before there is any defence of the Ā£? Will it be a repeat of 1985 again?
What a bunch of incompetent ministers we have.
August 23, 2022
Over these last ten years the lowest Ā£/$ was 1.1593 on 24/03/2020 right at the beginning of the first lockdown. Today (23/08/2022) out of Covid, it is 1.1764 on a downward trend. It will be interesting to see what a new PM will do to that curve.
August 23, 2022
I think they will have to raise interest rates. And for a government and party that has ridden high on a housing bubble that is going to hurt a lot of their core voters.
August 23, 2022
Its not just the main man or woman it is the people around and supporting them.
Then that has to trickle down into the departments trying to deliver the vision.
Too many old ideas now changing to mĆØet the new woke agenda’s.
Times they are a changing but in a lot of areas not for the better. Troubled times ahead for everybody unless the major areas of the peoples concerns are not properly addressed.
August 23, 2022
The Animals:-
We gotta get out of this place
If it’s the last thing we ever do
We gotta get out of this place
Girl, there’s a better life for me and you
Believe me baby
I know it baby
You know it too….
But what will it take?
August 23, 2022
It is surely by now clear he has already lost and rightly so as he would be a gift to Labour given his record.
To think idiotic politics like Ā£10 fines for missed NHS appointments (when people cannot even get one) or the net zero expensive energy agenda, or retaining subservience to the ECHR and thus open door illegal immigration, or tax cuts in seven years and the highest taxes for 70 years until then and his serial manifesto ratting will win elections is moronic. He is totally out of touch
August 23, 2022
Maybe Im wrong, but I feel that it is unfair to post this article now, so close to the Leadership result. Rishi was flavour of the month, when he was giving out furlough etc, during the pandemic. I didn’t hear too much complaining then. I felt he did a reasonable job under very difficult circumstances.
He has been under fire for some time, because he is rich, and its a crime to be that in this Country. So different from the US, where I lived for fifteen years.
I haven’t got much faith in Liz Truss, but we will see. One thing is certain. The Media will have their knives out for whoever becomes Prime Minister.
August 23, 2022
Well most people here thought furlough unnecessary and stupid AT THE TIME in that it would inevitably lead to precisely where we are now.
August 23, 2022
@Sir Joe Soap: Yes, precisely. Furlough was only necessary because of the lockdowns, which I opposed at the time. If Sunak wanted credit he should have done the same. He did not do ANYTHING positive during the Covid period and Sir John has, if anything, been too GENEROUS to him!
August 23, 2022
Sir John supports Liz Truss, so why shouldn’t he give her a push on his site? What is wrong is that only 160,000 people get to vote for pool of only 2, because that is what a few hundred MP’s want and the whole thing taking 2 months when a GE can be done in 5 weeks. Rome burns and the Tories fiddle, no government, a PM on constant holiday and no decisions being made. It’s a farce, and one we will all pay dearly for, just because ‘rules is rules’ no matter how stupid or out of time with the nation that may be. Party first, nation second as usual.
August 23, 2022
Gordon Brown’s accession was sorted out by a couple of blokes in a pub.
August 23, 2022
A few days in Slovenia and four days in Greece, in August? On the end of a telephone and able to chair a COBRA meeting from anywhere in the world? The people who are working you up about this have far longer. It is as confected as Smeargate. I rather wish they hadn’t taken the decision about the power station as it may not be precisely the right one.
August 23, 2022
That is probably the reason for their “swift” move, Another boot used on the working public!
August 23, 2022
CG – Unfair?
This is a political blog, people that read John’s posts want to know who he is supporting and why. He is a politician I respect as a man of integrity and is one of the few willing to be unpopular to stand firm behind his red lines.
August 23, 2022
so how many people and Party members will read this piece to possibly influence them?
August 23, 2022
Done a āreasonable jobā?!
Anyone can print and borrow money and give it away.
August 23, 2022
That so many Conservative MP’s backed Rishi is a great worry. Rishi is a socialist and not a conservative. Mass immigration is also socialist. What happened to the Conservatives? All we are offered, from all parties, is destruction of the UK as we know it and manifestos intended to win votes but then instantly discarded and replaced by unwarranted, unwelcome and destructive policies. I know I won’t like the UK of the future and I don’t much care for the current one after 12 years of Tory misrule.
August 23, 2022
+1
August 23, 2022
You sum up well what I feel. Conservatives have given up on so many things such as control of our borders thatās going to get even worse. The worldās migrants would all like to live in England, and they can. Fracking? No chance. The apparent new policy is āyes but subject toālocal consentā (endorsed by Mr Redwood). An activity clearly in the national interest but subject to local consent. Pathetic. Why not be honest and say it aināt going to happen.
August 23, 2022
And according to our host, some +500 MP’s support legislation that will leave us all cold, hungry and poor.
August 23, 2022
The last manifesto was put straight into the bin by Boris the day after the last election ā shouldnāt the new leadership candidates produce a new update manifestoā¦.if theyāre continuing with the policies of net zero they should make it clear
August 23, 2022
If inflation hits 18% next April what will the BoE/government do between now and then. Are we heading towards an IMF bailout sir John?
August 23, 2022
If inflation is 18% next April we’re heading towards a Labour government
August 23, 2022
You are fooling no one. You think it is clever to present Liz Truss as a new broom, sweeping away past failures. But those failures are failures of 12 years of Conservative governments, in all of which Liz Truss served as a Cabinet Minister. The Conservative party has failed this country. You are fooling no one.
August 23, 2022
Brando,
I agree āthe Conservative Party has failed this countryā. Worse than that, they have routinely lied and actively tried to deceive the electorate under successive Prime Ministers.
However, for a Conservative politician, a ānew broomā is the big remaining hope. So they will do all they can to promote the new broom and downplay any blue on blue attacks.
August 23, 2022
I’m willing to give Ms Truss a chance. I worked for senior managers, who’s policies I didn’t agree with and whilst you can voice an opinion, in the end you either knuckle down or walk away. I’m going to be very interested in the people she surrounds herelf with, as she should know by now who shares her basic beliefs and who she can really trust.
Unfortunately, it seems the marxist rot runs deep within both government and media circles, so I’m not expecting her to get an easy ride. Hopefully, she will have enough grit (and close allies) to survive and make progress. It won’t be simple though, Boris got assinated for just having a cake he didn’t get to eat.
August 23, 2022
‘who she can really trust’ – don ‘t make me laugh – we are talking about politicians and Cabinet members.!
August 23, 2022
@Brando: Liz Truss is certainly not a “new broom” – she has been in Cabinet for years! And she has given no indication that she wil do anything to change the way government works – or rather, doesn’t work. I have previously commented on the tragedy that is befalling our semiconductor industry – one that is so vital in the modern world and that affects almost every modern product. Here is a quote from the Times today: “Europe and the United States recently announced legislation that will put tens of billions of dollars and euros into bolstering their semiconductor industries. The European Union wants 20 per cent of global production to be on the Continent by 2030 in order to increase its ādigital autonomyā. Britain, in contrast, is carrying out two reviews into the sector that are yet to publish their findings.” [https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boss-of-arm-holdings-rene-haas-says-uk-urgently-needs-a-microchip-strategy-936ljtx2z] In other words, the rest of the world is chargnig ahead, taking action and becoming stronger in this crucial industry, while the British government sits on its lazy arse and does nothing but talk, talk, talk. What a useless, treacherous government we have.
And waht is the result of this institutionalised incompetence and inactivity? Here is another headline today: “Graphene startup Paragraf threatens US move due to government semiconductor failings”. [https://www.uktech.news/deep-tech/graphene-paragraf-us-move-government-20220823] Yes, Paragraf, a British startup that has invented and commercialised revolutionary, new, graphene-based, electronics – one of the few bright lights in this industry in the UK – is now giving up on this country and planning to move to the US. Why? Because this useless, incompetent, SLOOOOOW government that can’t ever, ever, do anything quickly, is just not providing a business environment that encourages British technology start-ups to grow and succeed. We are being destroyed by the enemy within: the Conservative Party. And what has Liz Truss said about the UK semiconductor industry? NOTHING. The womam will be another total failure. When will people understand and stop voting for these TRAITORS?
August 23, 2022
Rishi, many politicians and most of the senior civil servants SIMPLY donāt think.
I canāt put it it any simpler. Group think is all about not thinking things through. There is no coherent philosophy. There are only policies driven by lobby groups and focus groups.
August 23, 2022
Oh, I love that: no āgroup thinkā on this website, eh?
August 23, 2022
one mind and group think are not the same @hef
August 23, 2022
Very well said NS
August 23, 2022
Of course there is ‘Groupthink’ here, and just about anywhere else. The difference is, we do not have the power to change peoples lives, either for the better or worse. Those that do have enormous responsibility and therefore seek the widest of opinions, which they do not.
August 23, 2022
Indeed Mark
heffy doesn’t complain about group think on Guardian, Independent, Observer BBC Channel 4/5 and O’Brian sites.
They are all sensible, so correct lovely clever people.
Hilarious.
August 24, 2022
Peter 2
Maybe it is because they have less group thinking than you state
August 24, 2022
No they don’t bill.
It is worse and less free.
Try posting a contrary post on their site as you do on here and see what happens.
August 23, 2022
Bravo. One Nation Tories in fact Social Democrats desperate to stay close/re integrate with the EU, supporters of Mayās sell out, still believing supporters of Brexit are xxx and they know better of the Damien Green variety should be well and truly sent packing.
Sunak is quite obviously someone they consider malleable, unable to push back and will compromise us into oblivion.
Truss talks a better story. The problem I have is that she has come up with a populist wish list, no dates by when of course and I have little/zero faith in her ability to force these through in the face of continuing internal party disagreement and massive blob and media push back, the kind of which we are seeing already.
As soon as she appoints a Cabinet that is tough enough to do what is needed apart from where these people are going to come from given the paucity of talent, there will be concerted howls that the Tories are āputting children up chimneys againā you will need a massive and incessant press campaign.
You have lost control of the narrative, allowed wokery to be all encompassing and the Civil Service seemingly to do what it likes. Unless you get it back, a weak Starmer is your only chance but an electoral pact with the Liberals finishes you off.
August 23, 2022
”Civil Service seemingly to do what it likes” reported this week that the civil service spent over Ā£1,000 of taxpayers money on an awayday team building ‘painting pottery’…….who’s in charge of this wokery
August 23, 2022
JR, when I read:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/22/uk-inflation-will-hit-18-per-cent-in-early-2023-says-leading-bank-citi-gas-electricity
“Inflation in the UK will hit 18% early next year as consumers count the cost of the deepening energy crisis, one of the worldās biggest banks has predicted.”
I do not think “The Treasury and the Bank of England and its MPC have got things badly wrong”.
I can believe that they haven’t done as well as they could have done, but my guess is that by far the largest chunk of that 18% is down to the war in Ukraine, while another chunk will be the aftermath of the pandemic.
Just how high would the MPC have to raise interest rates to ward off that excess 16% of CPI inflation, how many businesses would be bankrupted, and how many people would lose their jobs and homes?
The Chancellor has the power to vary the CPI target set for the MPC and he should do so now, accepting that it makes no sense to stick to a 2% national inflation target under present international conditions.
August 23, 2022
I don’t agree. This inflation was baked in long before the war, money printing for too long, net zero, lack of planning for our energy, banning coal fired power, whilst the Continent and the world increases it, not allowing fracking and reducing North Sea production. All can be laid at the door of this and to the previous Labour government. It’s been coming since the mid 1990’s. This inflation is mainly driven by greed, profiteering, not wages this time, which will never catch up and will cause civil unrest before things normalise.
August 23, 2022
So nothing whatsoever to do with Russia retaliating against Western sanctions by cutting off gas supplies to Europe, while simultaneously managing to circumvent oil sanctions by diverting sales to various bystanders who are prepared to help her out, at a discount. What they are doing with the extra oil is not clear, maybe they are storing it, maybe they are using it and buying less from other producers.
Of course nobody in the EU/NATO/US troika expected anything like that before they started poking the bear.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/energy-supplier-warns-of-dramatic-and-catastrophic-winter-ahead-7mhj7tktn
“Following a spike in gas prices to fresh highs yesterday as Russia prepared to halt supplies through a crucial pipeline to Europe, the energy consultant Auxilione has revised up its forecasts for the October cap to Ā£3,576 a year. The current cap is Ā£1,971.
Prices for wholesale gas for the coming winter in Britain rose to as much as 719p per therm yesterday and were still trading at more than 680p per therm last night, more than 13 times higher than the average over the decade pre-crisis.
Auxilione now predicts a rise in the cap to Ā£5,066 a year in January before rising even further to Ā£6,552 a year ā nearly Ā£550 a month ā from April. This compares to Ā£1,138 a year last winter.”
August 23, 2022
I agree with you Graham. Too much money printing and lockdown. Nothing to do with Ukraine and / or President Putin.
August 23, 2022
I don’t agree, but unlike you I am not allowed to reply.
August 24, 2022
You are allowed. It says “REPLY” at the bottom.
August 24, 2022
You don’t really need to reply do you? You made your case and I disagree for the reasons I said. Going over it again won’t help.
August 23, 2022
Liz Truss is the high quality candidate.
August 23, 2022
Maybe
August 23, 2022
Liz Truss is the high quality candidate!?
One can but assume you are being ironic.
August 24, 2022
Mike
Maybe not ironic
August 23, 2022
āPunk Conservative proposalsā?
Anarchy in the U.K. ?
August 23, 2022
brilliant !
August 23, 2022
Never mind the bolleaux. Itās all hot air.
August 23, 2022
āIt is surprising given this that on his watch the taxpayer paid large sums to the private health sector in the UK to use their capacity for NHS work, yet failed to use that capacity fully to keep the waiting lists down.ā
Unfair to pin that one solely on Sunak. What was Johnson doing? Croneyism was rampant. This is down to the government as a whole and, of course, that chancer Hancock.
August 23, 2022
Johnson was doing what he has always done – Having his cake and eating it. Literally !
August 23, 2022
There is a great deal to agree with in this article – Many do not like the ex-Chancellors policies.
While Truss certainly has some appeal there is still the white elephant sitting in the corner that everyone chooses to ignore.
Both candidates, and many top politicians, are influenced by the World Economic Forum simply because they are members of it.
The WEF is the reason why so many world leaders impose the same restrictions and communicate similar things.
I want a PM / government that is truly independent and not following a global approach to life, nor influenced from somewhere else.
August 23, 2022
And three pieces of news struck me as metaphors for the mess this government is in. The closed Manston Airport has planning as a transport hub. This only took five years, Heathrow third runway row still ongoing, a graphene developer switching to the States because the government doesnāt know what itās doing and a Minister says that we should double the amount paid for Ukrainian refuges not forgetting we are still waiting at least 12 years and no end in sight for some new tanks plus of course a few billion.
And finally it is now confirmed the NHS is solely interested in protecting itself by not seeing as many patients as possible.
Whatever shovel you are offered Sir John and I hope you get one, you will be into something very brown and smelly.
August 23, 2022
The NHS is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths with many more thousands still to happen. This winter I suspect we will have a pneumonia and starvation ‘pandemic’ which will be described as a flu epidemic, the elderly being the worst affected (but it’ll help get the pensions bill down a bit), and it will supply the excuse to allow thousands more unnecessary deaths caused by a lack of treatment. Why are we not training more doctors and nurses????? Why can’t we get treatment, or even easily see a doctor? Mass immigration affects every facet of our lives by making public services difficult, or even impossible, to access. That’s the result of 12 years of Tory misrule.
August 23, 2022
One might think you provide a fair appraisal of the alternative for PM.
Now will you appraise Liz Truss over similar timeframe and how she supported, or not , events that led to this contest?
August 23, 2022
Was Liz Truss not also in government, if she was not involved it suggests she can not argue her point and convince others.
So she is either equally culpable or ineffective. Which is it?
That does not release Rishi Sunak from blame but cabinet is collective. We needed a break for the usual suspects but no one could raise enough support to put themselves forward. That tells us a lot about the Parliamentary Conservative Party.
Either frit or in agreement?
August 23, 2022
@ Narrow Shoulders -you alight on the central problem inherent in doctrine of collective responsibility – that one has to trust one’s colleagues to get it right.
There is no alternative, one cannot have ministers eschewing what their colleagues do and yet they also cannot supervise the activities of departments for which they hold no brief. Thus the whole ministerial team has responsibility for the lamentable failings of Home Secretary Patel and Boris’s failure to deal with that but the rest of the team is not exactly to blame, despite the duration and clarity of the failures. Eventually though these issues are addressed.
August 23, 2022
Spot on critique of Rishi’s performance.
Now let’s please fizz with Liz on the below:
Repeal IR35.
Reduce Corp tax.
Go for growth and laffer curve increase in tax revenues.
Drill, mine, frack, store until energy prices go lower which is years away imvho.
Remove Vat and green levy from energy and approve SMR nuclear rollout.
Let’s be an energy exporter with extra tax benefits to the new Exchequer …
August 23, 2022
For me, Mr Sunak is not a person who can be trusted.
He lost his honour by authorising the change in the formulae of the Retail Prices Index (RPI) so that it will rise at a lower rate, whilst still calling it the RPI, thereby defrauding people who had bought RPI-linked lifetime annuities and other contracts in the open market and providing a windfall to the payers of those contracts. In so doing, he undid the decision of the former Chief Statistician, Dame Jil Matheson.
Also, as you say, he reneged on his manifesto pledge by increasing NICs.
August 23, 2022
He’s the establishments choice and also the remainers choice.
Yesterday he was on about scrapping vat on energy but vigorously opposed it under Bozo.
He stood in the way of sorting the NIP so yes, he’s a closet remainer and WEF plant.
August 23, 2022
Sir John, – you are being tipped for a role at the treasury if Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister. If this happens I hope you are able to follow your principles and pursue policies that you advocate here.
Will it be a) appropriate and b) possible to continue with this diary from within an administration?
Reply I have not been offered a role. The Times newspaper strongly supports Rishi so is unlikely to receive informed leaks from the Truss campaign
August 23, 2022
I saw it in the Mail Sir John and they quoted from that day’s diary so I would not imagine it was following a Times story.
August 23, 2022
I think Mr. Redwood is a bit of a bogey man for much of the Tory Party. Suggesting he is up for a Treasury role if Truss wins is probably an attempt by Rishi supporters to frighten the horses.
August 23, 2022
What would be nice would be seeing Mr. Redwood – the newly appointed Chief Secretary to the Treasury – on the news physically kicking people out of the Treasury. Iād like to see them all scurrying out with their personal possessions in a cardboard box with Mr. Redwoodās boot up their backsides. So to speak.
August 23, 2022
Sir JR
It’s unfortunate that you have become so focused on the negatives of Mr Sunak, that you forget that this is the performance of the entire past Johnson government.
The figures and promises that Liz throws around are unrealistic and she will not be able to deliver what she has promised .
When did any political party, actually deliver their manifesto?
August 23, 2022
Problem is, Bill, we don’t get much choice. Even at the next GE it will be this lot or Labour. Things just get worse.
August 23, 2022
Your opening paragraph is very kind to Rishi Sunak, but not deserved. Together he and his wife are Billionaires. Have you seen the swanky home he has? with a huge swimming pool being built. He doesn’t care about electricity bills, it’s just small change for him. He is a man so out of touch, he should be nowhere near Government.
August 23, 2022
Johnson and Sunak will go down in history as the Laurel and Hardy of the CONservative Party.
And what a fine mess they’ve got us into.
As for the Treasury Mandarins: pre-Referendum they predicted an economic crisis if we dared leave the EU. They must be quietly celebrating the mess they’ve created ……… deliberately so they would be proved right?
The tragedy is that Sunak did nothing to stop them and a great deal to help make it worse than it already would have been. Basically, he went into the Treasury and immediately “went native.” He was far too inexperienced to be promoted so quickly to Chancellor.
And over the past few weeks he’s demonstrated beyond doubt that he’s far too inexperienced a politician and Minister to become Prime Minister.
August 23, 2022
Agreed, Donna. Whatever happened to meritocracy? Is it a case of ‘who you know’ and ‘what you know’ that gets you a nice ministerial role and nothing else counts, or maybe box ticking helps a little. The UK does go way overboard on the box ticking!
August 23, 2022
Shirley, what would be the point of appointing people to the cabinet who are hostile to you or who openly disagree with your agenda?
August 23, 2022
Surely it depends on whether they are honest, or yes-men! The cabinet was overflowing with yes-men who agreed to anything and everything if it meant they retained their role. They didn’t have the backbone to speak up when Boris and Rishi were plying their stupid policies.
August 23, 2022
Apologies for the typo. I meant to say ‘plying’ their stupid policies.
August 23, 2022
Cabinet has to have collective responsibility so if a member fundamentally disagrees with a policy the honourable thing would be to resign.
August 23, 2022
the ‘mess’ goes back for years and years…..we had everything Arab, future lies with China, exploit India’s technical workforce, EU disillusionment, Brexit falsification, meddling in wars we should have resisted, and now eco-pubescents given Messiah respect.
The thing is, how do we get out of this fine mess?
August 23, 2022
Wise Words
August 23, 2022
I’ve been reading a lot of criticism about the subsidies given to renewables and renewable in general.
I simply do not understand this. Without the subsidies we would not have reached the point where we now have multiple power sources that are as cheaper than fossil fuel. Also, combined with a nuclear baseload, we have a good shot at producing clean, cheap energy rather than pouring our tons of pollution.
What’s not to like here?
August 23, 2022
The hugely expensive “renewables” provide AT BEST intermittent energy. Under normal circumstances, they are only viable because they are massively subsidised by taxpayers.
The windmills stand idle when the wind doesn’t blow – and if it blows too hard, but the “producers” get paid anyway. The solar panels produce very little energy in the winter months.
They have to be backed-up by a reliable source which, in the absence of nuclear, means using gas, coal or oil. The Government has failed to ensure we have sufficient of these for ideological reasons. The Drax power station uses wood pellets shipped from America and ADDS to global CO2 (if you’re bothered by that …. I’m not) but enables the box-tickers in Government to claim it reduces “our” CO2.
The whole Net Zero/climate change agenda is a scam. It’s a classic case of “take off the poor and give to the rich.”
August 23, 2022
According to reports, in 2021 Drax earned Ā£893m (2020: Ā£832 million) in direct government subsidies for burning forest biomass ā more than Ā£2 million a day. These subsidies added Ā£11.60 to the average household energy bill.
August 23, 2022
Agreed !00 % Donna
August 23, 2022
The exclusion of all else?
August 23, 2022
ignoramus :
Renewables cannot provide cheap energy and they are only appearing to be cheap firstly because energy companies are bidding unaffordably low prices to appear āgreenā for PR reasons (as evidenced by their company reports) and more importantly because renewables are not paying for their own intermittency. Fossil fuels actually are subsidising renewables as they are acting as their backup and to provide grid stability made worse by windās intermittency.
As I write the 27GW installed capacity of wind is providing just 2.80 GW of power (9.02% of demand).
Fossil fuels have become expensive because the fifth column communists in Government, Parliament, Civil Service and quangos have deliberately caused a shortage of supplies by cancelling oil and gas exploration/production in the North Sea and banning fracking.
As for nuclear providing baseload, this fifth column have ensured that all our existing nuclear reactors will be closed down by the electricity decarbonisation date of 2035 with just a single replacement, Hinkley Point C, which is yet to be completed and may never do so because of the immense technical issues with this EPR design.
There is no non-fossil fuel solution to intermittency. The calculation based upon a wind capacity of 30% (BEIS Energy Brief 2022) and 60% efficiency for electrolysis and electrical generation dhows that using hydrogen as a store of energy would require 8 times more installed wind capacity than the final figure of power required.
If you want to understand why renewable intermittency is such a problem I suggest you go to :
https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/index.php
Then click on āinfoā at the top followed by āthis paperā (in depth discussion on the impact of intermittency)
The site also has links to further information on energy that you may find useful to answer your question āWhatās not to like here?ā
August 23, 2022
The fact that the wind doesn’t always blow or the sun always shine – so we will need baseload power for many years to come – completely obvious and completely ignored by the eco warriors. Don’t blame Putin for this mess, he has simply taken advantage of our blind rush to net-zero.
August 23, 2022
If you use nuclear for baseload, as you suggest, then you do not need to add the intermittent, unreliable ātop upsā of vanity-based so-called renewables.
And they are not ācheapā. They continue to need huge subsidies, and always will. Seen the energy bills recently?
August 23, 2022
+ many – the wind turbines earn even more money when NOT turning. Unbelievable, but true.
August 23, 2022
Tony Blair today āItās time to scrap GCSEs and A-levelsā change the name I assume he means. More practical skills would be welcome. Someone I know has just started start work as a junior doctor. A bright lad but I would nor trust him to wire a plug, hang a door or even put a couple of shelfs on the wall.
Time really to scrap soft loans for all the duff degrees about 75% must be almost worthless. The student loan scheme is also heavily anti-male. This as with maternity career breaks, more part time work and women often tending to choose lower paid work that fits around family commitments they are far less likely to repay.
Student doctors often have interest on the large debts of about Ā£10,000 PA (after 6 year or so) so repaying 9% over Ā£20,000 you need to earn about Ā£130k just to cover just the interest at 9%! Meaning in effect that ~ 50% of your salary goes in NI, student loan interest, income tax, pension, commuting costs, lunches, professional subsā¦ They start work on only Ā£29k. Not easy to buy or even rent a home on that net income! Not surprising 50% do not go one to work for the NHS or even in healthcare often.
August 23, 2022
The English graduates are expected to pay a 9% graduate tax for at least 30 years over the student loan earnings allowance. They didn’t like the brightest and best English grads paying theirs off altogether, they want a bigger slice of their earnings for longer. Had I been a prospective English student, I would have voted for Corbyn, as the parents of 3 grads stuck with graduate loans courtesy of Blair and Cameron for their working life I didn’t want them disadvantaged alone; it is already bad enough that Scottish and Welsh grads don’t have anything like the graduate taxes the English do so can keep more of their net income with their properties costing a lot less also.
August 23, 2022
“This as with maternity career breaks, more part time work and women often tending to choose lower paid work that fits around family commitments they are far less likely to repay.”
Maybe that’s because it’s mostly women who sacrifice their careers and take the responsibility of raising children, even where the women earned more than their partners. I only know of one couple where the man (who earned less than his wife) was prepared to give up his career to raise the children.
August 23, 2022
I agree fully that is what many mothers do choose and often a very sensible choice it is too. But then that often leads to them earning less. Most undergraduate doctors in training now are female but the statistics show they get rather less work hours out from their expensive training.
August 25, 2022
Lifelogic, for a man with intelligent daughters, I can’t believe your comments sometimes, many women work full time after having their babies and take minimum time off (however, not all women work in the public sector – those that do take for granted their perk and the cost of that perk). I know two female doctors whose husbands took career breaks as they earned more, and men’s careers don’t seem to suffer as much after a six-month to twelve months sabbatical. I also know a female dentist who works the same hours as her husband but different shifts to accommodate picking her children up from school. If only men were working, we’d need to import many more people, wouldn’t we? To do the work women now do, and men would be back working the shifts our fathers did, six-day weeks, minimum 10-hour days, often 12. You just keep your blinkers on and fail to appreciate the contribution women are making to a family’s finances now as well as often running the home and often doing most of the cleaning and cooking; not me my husband has always shared the load equally.
August 23, 2022
On the other hand Liz has shown a worrying tendency to pick up ideas and drop them at the first sign of trouble – like the good idea to set Public sector pay regionally, which could have saved money but obviously led to howls of outrage from the unions and the left. She has said nothing about the urgent need for the bloated and often useless U.K. state to simply spend less, in order that we can have sustainable tax cuts. It is reported that she will not offer Michael Gove a position in the cabinet because he didnāt support her – even though he is the one Conservative minister since 2010 who really did achieve something with his school reforms (which are now being unwound by the blob now there are less attentive ministers at the DfE). It is said she will appoint mr Kwarteng as chancellor, though he has not been a good business secretary. Rishi is supported by many sound and experienced figures such as Lawson, Lilley and Howard.
I hope you are right and Liz will offer bold and radical Conservative direction if she wins. But there are some causes for doubt and concern.
August 23, 2022
Goes back to āleast worstā choice doesnāt it?
August 23, 2022
Richard1 it is ok for the LivingWage.org.uk to expect a higher hourly rate! But god forbid you mention a teacher in Hull shouldn’t get the same as a teacher in the South East where property rents are double and house prices more than double.
London Minimum Income Standard
Living costs are much higher in London than in the rest of the UK – that is why the London Living Wage is higher than the UK rate. Our calculation is based on living costs and when it is annually recalulated we take into account any fluctuation in those costs.
August 23, 2022
Truss should have ‘kept her own counsel’, not throwing out ideas waiting to be shot down before being elected.
August 25, 2022
No MT, she should have been able to explain her idea calmly and accurately with figures about regional housing costs (both rents and mortgages) and the % of pay that takes up in the different areas. The only other way they can make this change is to make the improvements to the North East so that people WANT and CHOOSE to live there, not just get stuck there because they happened to be born there. What governments do instead is move all their social housing guests to these areas and run the place down further. Blackpool could have had a casino, big hotels, a Vegas-type holiday resort to attract big acts, but big acts like Adele don’t want to go to a run-down area with a dirty beach, and only the poor with low spending need to stay in run-down guest houses.
Most people don’t want to get beaten up walking in the Town at night. I was shocked when Blair’s government overturned those plans to turn it around and make it an attractive Northern short break destination. Strictly does its best for the town each year, but it is going to need a lot more investment and job movement than that.
August 23, 2022
“Their enthusiasm for an economic policy which had given us 10% inflation and may give us a recession was tone deaf to the mood of members and the country. Claiming it was what Margaret Thatcher would have done was so silly and wrong. By digging Rishi in behind a system and policy that had misfired they did not allow room to offer something better, let alone allow any reflection on what has gone awry economically in recent months. When we need change and improvement an attempted establishment stitch up is a bad look.”
Exactly right – his attachment to rip off unreliable energy, the insane, carbon dioxide devil gas religion and tax cuts one day in seven years is a moronic way to win public support and to keep Starmer/SNP out.
August 23, 2022
One positive thing they should do with GCSEs and A levels is to forget grades and just give a percentile position perhaps divide into 5% positions 1 to 20. With 1 at the top obviously unlike the current idiotic reverse number system. Much simpler, more informative & cannot be politically manipulated. Also publish a rating for the subject as some are generally taken by bright students – Music, Further Maths and others by less bright ones PE, English, Art… computed from the average results of sitters in others subjects.
August 23, 2022
I have still not come up with a single positive from the Blair/Brown era. Dire wars, botched legal reforms and legal reforms, a wrecked economy, his human rights act, the one sided US extradition act, the many worthless degrees, the open door immigration… can anyone help?
August 23, 2022
Don’t forget the great post office scandal where many owners and employees were wrongly accused of theft. All under Blair watch. He was warned many times there was a problem and chose to ignore it. The last thing we need is any advice from Blair or Brown.
August 23, 2022
Ā£200k plus p.a. pension contribution limits, 10% Entrepreneur’s. relief.
Name me 2 good things under Johnson -Sunak.
August 23, 2022
@ Lifelogic – yes! The maladroit hand of Gordon Brown did change tax law to allow course fees for some educational endeavours to be offset against income tax liability, with carry back available to at least the prior tax year.
August 23, 2022
In retrospect they were right to end the prohibition on gay people serving in the armed forces. Apoplectic generals assured us at the time it would mean the armed forces would become totally ineffective. the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq – although the second was a huge error and both were undermined by terrible political direction – showed those who opposed the measure were wrong.
That said, your general point is exactly right, the Labour govt of 1997-2010 was an unmitigated disaster. the sale of the gold, devolution, the federalising EU treaties, the boom and bust economics, the bank bailouts, the Iraq war, the expansion of the state, the distortion of energy policy etc, all were terrible. Like all Labour govts, it will take decades to recover. The key decision now is which of Sunak and Truss offers the best prospect of avoiding another Labour govt?
August 23, 2022
When I was a lad GCE’s were the thing (GCSE’s were dumbed down GCE’s to get ‘better’ results, the polictcians’ way to deal with failure). As I recall there were three grades – Distinction for perfect results, Credit for super performance and just Pass for the lesser results, plus of course fail. We make things ever more complicated and dumbed down so that now employers don’t take much notice anymore anyway. They seem to want degrees to make coffee or flip burgers.
August 23, 2022
Graham, the thinking was that CSEs grade 1’s were not respected as equivalent to a C at GCE, often times the child didn’t have a choice of whether they sat GCE or CSE and the lower risk was taken to put C/D students in for a CSE rather than risk a fail of a D at GCE.
The great pity is that we don’t spend anywhere need the time, money and effort with the top 5% as we spend on the bottom 5%. Just doing enough isn’t good enough for the Country we need the top 10% to excel in every way, as James Dyson was allowed to do through scholarship and support. NAGTY was wrecked by Labour and it offered so many State pupils a chance to mix with the brightest and best and attend specialist short academies.
August 23, 2022
graham, my GCEs (University of London) were simply a pass rate of 45% or a fail and I had a tiny piece of paper detailing each percentage plus the certificate.
August 23, 2022
in my time there was A to E passes, F and G fails.
I heard it said that A represented the top 10% of pass scores, and most subjects were fails under 45%?
August 25, 2022
D and E weren’t really passes, you required 5 A-C’s to get an apprenticeship or better paid job.
August 23, 2022
* minority of Conservative MPs
August 23, 2022
Rishi Sunak is a ”one-trick-pony” and he followed the PM’s thinking with the lockdown support. Thereafter he has clearly shown his lack of experience both in the H o C and the small business arena. He also failed to implement Brexit advantages and he gave way to vailed threats from the EU.
He does not bring anything to the party.
August 23, 2022
Don’t know where you are going with any of this – She looks to me a little bit light on her feet – not really of this world – of course we know she is quite capable of mouthing the ideas of others, we have already seen that, but knock knock is there anyone home?
No need to say anything about Sunak – we know
August 23, 2022
I donāt rate either of them except in the hope that with Truss JR might get some influence.
Regarding tāotherā¦my grandmother heartily disapproved of men who wore short trousers!
BUT ā¦unless someone gets the police doing their proper job there will be no country left to govern.
Reallyā¦do MPs not research what is actually going on?
Stabbing, shooting, mass theft in fast food places and shops. All on videos that anyone can access!
More and more and more new arrivals etc ed
August 23, 2022
“Jealousy is no part of Conservatism”
It’s not jealousy, it’s hypocrisy.
Make rules for others as you’d live yourself. Johnson could’ve set up a massive tax relief scheme for old Etonians with blond mop haircuts, which wouldn’t have gone down well either.
August 23, 2022
But old Etonians always look after ‘chums’.
August 23, 2022
Itās just plain wrong to have a chancellor imposing taxes on us whilst his family use tax loopholes to avoid paying their share. If you live in this country then you should be subject to the same tax rules as the rest of us. He hasnāt been badly treated heās been called out for what he is, a hypocrite. The only low tax heās interested in is for his own family. The rest of us are taxed to the hilt. Weāve reached the stage where itās hardly worth working anymore as the unemployed with all their freebies are better off.
August 23, 2022
The UK average day-ahead auction power price hit a record Ā£539.59/MWh for Tuesday 23rd August. The next PM needs to prioritise cheap and reliable energy and that means more domestic gas as soon as possible.
August 23, 2022
I read that Total and ENI announced the discovery of another big gasfield off Cyprus yesterday, adding to several others that have been discovered. Obviously on grounds of location and ownership the gas will preferentially go to Italy and France when it is developed, but that means less competition from France and Italy for LNG supplies to the UK.
It would be nice to think that the City was exploring the opportunities to finance and insure development and that British industry was offering to supply some of the kit needed. The sooner discoveries come onstream the sooner gas market tightness goes away.
August 23, 2022
Donāt be surprised if pensioners organise a sit-in at their nearest 4* illegal immigration hotel this winter. Itās the only way many of them will be able to keep warm. Wonāt it look good seeing them evicted onto the streets whilst the economic migrants bask in warmth and luxury? This Government has its priorities all wrong.
August 23, 2022
Although “…he then adopted some punk Conservative proposals that he thought might please” that did not include proposals to prevent foreigners receiving free NHS treatment for non-emergencies. I am furious with Mr. Sunak: his neglect has cost me dear in my sweepstake of bandwagons he tries to roll.
Otherwise, being mindful of the very material point that Liz is taking your advice, I have refrained from commenting upon her youth and inexperience. I hope she carries on as she has started or she risks doing a Boris.
August 23, 2022
Update ā MOD Royal Navy reporting that yesterday ā
1,295 illegal immigrants crossed the channel in 27 boats
Unknown number of boats could have transverse the channel with drugs & people
August 23, 2022
+1
And I see that many who offered refuge in their homes are now changing their minds.
Because energy prices are too high!!!
(Apparently it was that Swedish lass who sold Net Zero to the tories. I saw an oldish vid of them cheering her and guffawing loudly at her jokes)
Not very funny now!
August 23, 2022
7,000 + Ukraine refugees now looking for council house or hotel rooms funded by the taxpayer
August 23, 2022
I’m guessing that not a single one of those with a hand on a tiller will face people-trafficking charges.
The flood will continue until all financial and housing support for these ‘refugees’ is withdrawn – and it’s made clear that, even if they are allowed to stay, they will never be given a British passport. Anyone with an ounce of understanding of human-nature could solve this problem in a matter of weeks.
August 24, 2022
Exactly what the French have been saying.
So derogate from ECHR start deportation to origin or closest refugee camp overseas of origin.
But its all been agreed. Just your not in room not in the deal. Quote. US Steve Bannon.
This is happening in the US and elsewhere. All looks as though it has been envisaged pre-planned co-ordinated and organized.
August 23, 2022
One despairs. The RN has become a “count the boats and welcome” service for foreign invaders.
The RNLI acts as a taxi service. I keep on meaning to write them out of my will, where I still have them as a beneficiary. I’m determined not to die until that job is done!
August 23, 2022
@ Wanderer – so your wealth will go to facilitate RNLI treachery (for all those who “keep on meaning” to do something never actually do). Pity.
August 23, 2022
Mr. Sunak is clearly the candidate supported by the Remainer/WEF/Communist fifth column that inhabits Government, Parliament, the Civil Service, quangos and institutions.
He will therefore continue with the CAGW/Net Zero scam and continued uncontrolled immigration.
Whether or not Ms Truss wishes to continue with these Conservative Party policies remains to be seen.
August 23, 2022
The despicable way he treated small businesses and self employed with his handouts in Covid did him for me. He was quite content to lose billions in fraud without a murmur, pay out for duff PPE, billions for Test and Trace (another crony Tory firm to run it of course), Eat out to Help Out, the list goes on. Clever he may be, but I don’t see much common sense and that’s what we need for once.
August 23, 2022
+1
August 23, 2022
It is becoming clear that Labour will likely win the next General Election.
Not through how good Labour supposedly are – but through how terrible the Conservatives have become.
If I wanted a wishy-washy liberal socialist Government, I would have voted for the Lib Dems, or Labour. Not the Conservatives.
I really hope some of the Conservative membership are giving the potential next PM a hard time during these hustings sessions. About time they grasped how angry many people are at present.
There are many sensible voices of opinion on this site – in the comments – telling the Conservatives basically the same thing. Sort the issues you promised to do time and time again. All we have seen is endless waffle about what will be done, however no real action on the issues that matter.
August 23, 2022
The membership needs to reflect on their part of the selection process for MPs, and the steering, overrule of candidates. It is these 2 reasons that have produced the unthinking sheep in the Commons.
August 23, 2022
Things are just going to get worse and worse to 2024 and beyond.
The fall in living standards will be dramatic and permanent and it’s happened after 12 years of Tory rule and two of that with an 80 seat majority.
They are not the solution. They ARE the problem.
August 23, 2022
If Truss wants to appeal more she needs to speak, make speeches and do interviews in the voice she uses with her family ie her real voice. It takes confidence and a lack of fear.
August 25, 2022
And when people use their authentic northern voice ‘listen up’ they get pilloried for it; look at Michelle Dewsberry’s comments box at GB News with people knocking her intelligence just because of her accent. It is discrimination, so people learn to talk with a more southern accident in all aspects of their life when they move down south, unless your Scottish that accent is seen as a plus they just polish it up a bit.
Plus, when Northerners move South, they get called out for saying bath, glass, grass etc, with a flat northern ‘a’ sound as though you are thick. Learn to talk properly or you’ll be held back young people are told. This new accent of hers is probably her naturalised one; I know I dropped much of my Stoke accent unless I’m around my parents for a long time.
August 23, 2022
I only hope Truss has the good sense to give the critical Chancellor role to someone like yourself with real understanding. Too often it’s been traded away for support in the leadership race – I hope she won’t do that, or give it to one of her mates such as Coffey.
The ConHome piece was on the money. Sad to see so many troll-like comments under it – but that’s how it is on that site now with the Lib Dem remainer editor banning truly conservative accounts so that the site pushes his agenda (anti-Boris/Brexit, pro EU, house building and net zero). The site is a sad excuse as a focal point for the Conservative Party – they need to find their own home. A site that has a regular contributor who lost the whip and was ejected from the party is really not fit for purpose.
August 25, 2022
XY – agree but it happened long ago, that’s why I stopped reading and contributing to it shortly after Tim Montgomery left.
August 23, 2022
So what of Truss’s record on the environment then?
Unlike Tory MPs here, of the European Parliament, NOT ONE of its 705 MPs voted to allow companies to discharge raw sewage into Europe’s rivers and seas.
August 23, 2022
Yet it still happens in the EU despite that vote NHL
August 23, 2022
Could you give us some examples of EU27 water companies that have discharged raw sewage in Europeās rivers and seas. Thanks a lot in advance.
August 24, 2022
Oh go on heffy.
Tell us.
You know you want to.
August 24, 2022
Since you asked :-
Many wouldnāt dare to go for a dip in the Seine in Paris, the Thames in London, or the Spree River in central Berlin, even in the summer heat. Europeās main cities are struggling to keep untreated sewage out of their waterways, and the impacts of climate change are making matters worse.āDuring heavy rainfall, pipes need to handle a bigger flow of water than usual. When the influx is too big, the sewers overflow and release untreated wastewater into nearby waterways,ā urban water management specialist, Nicolas Caradot, explains.
Caradot is the lead coordinator for digital-water.city, an EU-funded research project that unites scientists in Berlin, Sofia, Milan, Copenhagen, and Paris. The researchers use digital technologies to improve water quality to a level that would be safe for swimming and adapt Europeās sewage systems to the biggest challenge of the 21st century – climate change.
āOverflows of wastewater into rivers are happening more often as extreme weather events such as heavy rains are becoming more frequent,ā says Caradot. Sewer overflows usually go unnoticed by the public, although they are a major source of water pollution and harmful to the environment.
The recent deadly floods in Germany and Belgium, however, were a stark reminder of the vulnerability of Europeās water infrastructure. The historic rainfall damaged and polluted drinking water systems, leaving thousands without clean water.
August 24, 2022
Correct MT
Now perhaps NHL and heffy will concede that they are wrong.
Problems exist in Europe toom
August 24, 2022
Despite that vote NHL the EU still has problems with sewerage in rivers and seas.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2021/09/04/swimming-in-sewage-how-can-we-fix-europe-s-smelly-rivers
August 24, 2022
So P2, you see, with a nice little kick in the behind from me, you can do it. Congratulations. Donāt you feel better to have a proper argument?
August 24, 2022
Gloating is a sin heffy.
You already knew I was right so why argue about it in the first place?
Hilarious.
August 25, 2022
A sin, how Judaeo-Christian of you! Calling on a āmoralā argument. Ridiculouser and ridiculouser. Level zero of possible interaction.
But Iāll let you have the last comment because after all whatever the paucity of your comments that’s the only thing that counts for āyour typeā. So go ahead. Iām sure Iāll enjoy your insuperable wit.
August 25, 2022
Peter2, the irony here is when I ask Hefner or anyone else who posts something I’ve never heard of to clarify their statements, Hef jumps in my reply telling me to go and read and do my own research!
August 25, 2022
A-tracy, I did that once, because what you asked was common knowledge.
But isnāt it nice to cuddle with P2 on this ā¦ (fish bowl effect?)
August 25, 2022
And Tracy do you notice how heffy always descends to rudeness and sarcastic comments?
“your type”….very non PC heffy.
Very poor for such an intelligent academic as you.
August 23, 2022
According to David Starkey on the Mark Steyn show on GBNews last night you have been invited to advise Truss?
August 23, 2022
As I’ve said before Sir John, I hope your members read you in Conservative Home and on here.
The first two comments on here today are suggesting that you have no chance of winning the next G.E..
Well, I do not always vote Conservative but I dread the thought of Labour getting in.
AND, I think Liz Truss DOES stand a chance of proving that your lot are better than Starmer’s lot!
If Sunak got in there would be nothing to choose between you.
August 23, 2022
This IS everything I dreaded.
Woke, mass immigration, poverty, thought control, oppressive policies, high tax, state profligacy, crime out of control, war impending…
Never EVER voting to keep the others out again.
The boat situation is the last straw.
August 23, 2022
+1
August 23, 2022
I assume everyone has read Matthew Parris and Gove on Truss? We are doomed
August 23, 2022
Parris and Gove. Grief.
August 23, 2022
Well Sir Guy I would not believe a word out either Parr’s or Gives mouth!
August 23, 2022
Dear Sir John, You are a logical thinker. You have argued that it is non-inflationary to increase state borrowing in the short-term, in order to boost trend growth. You argue that the cost of government borrowing matters but the debt/GDP ratio not much. You also argue that government accounting is wrong to lump increases in indebtedness on index-linked gilts in with the current interest cost.
Logically, therefore, if you have anything to do with it, all new borrowing (longer than a year) should be in index-linked gilts instead of that being cut back. Is that the case?
Reply No. That does not follow at all.
August 23, 2022
Dear SirJohn, I am sorry that you do not wish all the extra borrowing you envisage being in Index-linked gilts. My logic is somehow different for yours.
As soon as the debt management people decided to downgrade index-linked issues, some of us concluded that the Treasury welcomed a few years of above-target inflation, say 5 per cent rather than 15 per cent, to cut the burden of Covid19 debt. The Treasury currently also has a sectional vested interest in keeping money interest rates at an artificially low level to protect the gilt-edged market and to stymie any genuine anti-inflation monetary policy, inter alia by keeping the pound low. Reliance on index-linked borrowing could cut this pro-inflation nexus.
As it is, nearly every family below average household income, for whom fuel, power and food prices loom larger than average, will need some extra communal/government help over the winter and well beyond. This must come either from higher taxation or more borrowing. Aside from staying the green power levy, further Truss/Redwood tax cuts would add further to borrowing and the interest burden over the next two years. (unless corporations bring taxable profits forward in anticipation of a Labour government).
Your supply-side measures are welcome and important. But they will take time. For the most part, extra North Sea gas cannot just be turned on, let alone fracking. Private investment is unlikely to surge during a recession. Meanwhile, state borrowing will surge and risk-raising inflation become normal. As nearly always, what happens in the transition from one economic measure to another will actually determine the outcome.
As someone who backs Redwood over those who put asset prices above the real economy, I hope you will find some way to avoid this trap.
August 23, 2022
The MPs who have supported Sunak have simply demonstrated that for the average Tory MP, understanding
the economy is well above their pay grade. This can be expected because they were in the main selected because
they would not represent opposition to the onward march of globalist ant-British policies from which the main party financial support comes.
P.S. Sunak is 5ft 5″ (170cm).
August 23, 2022
”Plans to ban the sale of new fossil-fuelled motorbikes by 2035 have been put forward by the Government. ”
Why is this Tory government & Tory party policy fighting against the working class Joe public…you have no chance of winning at the next general election with these policies
August 23, 2022
Agree Glenn
Destroying tens of thousands of well paid jobs in the industry and in the supply chain.
August 23, 2022
My mind is going back thirty years to the ERM crisis. Then the stupid decision had been to lock sterling against the German mark, come what may. Now it seems the stupid decision is to keep to the 2% inflation target, come what may, even if the UK is importing inflation at levels which are much higher than that and completely beyond the control of the UK monetary and fiscal authorities. During Black Wednesday, September 16 1992, the Bank announced that the base interest rate would be increased to 15% to try to stem the flight from sterling. Luckily that did not work and by the evening we were freed from the ERM and immediately set on the road to economic recovery. So how high do we now expect the Bank to raise interest rates in a futile attempt to bring down UK inflation to this arbitrary 2% target, how many firms would we be willing to see wiped out, and how many people would we be content to see joining the dole queue, losing their homes and often their families as well?
August 23, 2022
It is unclear what Chancellor Redwood would actually do. So far this fiscal year (four months), government receipts are up 11% (Ā£31 billion), on the same period last year. Will he give that back to the taxpayers? Or; will he inflict Ā£31 billion of further austerities on public spending, that being an even greater rate than his government has been doing for the last twelve years. Just how big a budget deficit is he prepared to run to ameliorate the energy bill occurred by his party having sold all the family silver to foreigners? Will he still persist with issuing debt instruments to match government spending under the idiotic “full funding rule”; and, paying totally unnecessary interest on such corporate savings accounts? I think we should be told.
Reply I am not Chancellor nor have I been offered it.
August 23, 2022
There is no correlation between currently rising energy bills and “selling off the family silver ” from decades ago acorn
August 23, 2022
”Only a third of electrical vehicle (EV) charging points worked 12 months after being installed across Liverpool.” Liverpool Echo Online
The future is green
August 23, 2022
All welcome rich and poor alike….ok But.. when someone is to rolling in it you don’t squeeze the poor.
August 23, 2022
I just hope Liz realises as PM that immigration cannot go on like it is now.
We dont care what she needs to do, but she needs to do it, if its leaving the convention on human rights then do it, if telling India that we aint printing visas like confetti for their nationals then do it, etc
Thanks
August 23, 2022
Liz will know that fixing the problem will save her premiership in 2024.
August 23, 2022
Albania is the biggest offender…
August 25, 2022
When are we going to sack the Governor of the Bank of England?
When are we going to return monetary policy to the Chancellor?
When are we going to scrap the OBR?
When are we going to slim down the regulators so that they regulate only the monopolies and leave competing retail companies alone?
August 25, 2022
I’m glad the newspapers and the left are starting to say they will want an election immediately that the new Tory leader takes over; the people will be so fed up by this inhouse leader promotion they won’t want a protracted election at this time of reported chaos, we see how distracting it is to the significant people from the cabinet. Sunak was replaced, and Truss hasn’t been replaced so who is doing her job?
The conservative manifesto of 2019 is the mandate the British public overwhelmingly gifted the Conservative Party, the MPs felt Boris wasn’t upholding this and dispensed of him; unlike Major, when he resigned Boris wasn’t allowed to put himself back up for your membership to choose to re-elect him. I hope Truss hugs him close and gives him Digital, Culture, Media and Sport what a great figurehead for one of our Country’s biggest assets our people that devote their lives to these pursuits.
August 26, 2022
Taxing yourself into prosperity is like standing in a bucket and lifting yourself up by the handle.
Good old Churchill.