John Redwood's Diary
Incisive and topical campaigns and commentary on today's issues and tomorrow's problems. Promoted by John Redwood of 30 Rose Street, Wokingham RG40 1XU.
Search Site
My Interview with Mike Graham on Talk TV/Radio
September 27, 2022 71 Comments
Yesterday I did an extensive interview with Mike Graham at Talk TV/Radio. You can watch it at:
September 27, 2022 71 Comments
71 Comments
Lifelogic September 27, 2022
Well the cancellation of Sunakās vast, serial manifesto ratting, tax grabs on NICs and Corp. Tax were not ātax cutsā at all just cancellation of appalling, Tory proposed, tax increases. I note Kwasi retains Sunakās other huge tax grab – the many frozen allowances at a time of very high inflation. Inflation causes by Sunakās deliberate currency debasing.
Also energy crisis was mainly causes by the mad war on plant, tree amd crop food not by the war. Indeed the mad energy agenda almost certainly helped encourage the war.
Green or grey hydrogen are generally daft ideas outside of a few very specific areas. Wastes vast amounts of energy and costs a fortune with no real upside on using methane or coal and only generating electricity when it is actually needed.
Peter Wood September 27, 2022
I disagree. We have just heard a politician talk about all the things that NEED to be done, growing more of what we eat, making more of what we consume and producing more of what we need to cook and keep us warm. HOWEVER, his government has not brought forward policies to make these things happen! Why not?
Sir J admits that we import a lot of what we consume, for which we pay in foreign currency, much in US$. The fall in the Ā£ puts up the costs we pay in the shops. Oh, that’s just market players doing what they do and we can’t do anything about it. YES you can, you can return confidence and value in Ā£ by increasing interest rates.
Sir J thinks we’re not heading for a recession, lets remind him of this over the next 6 months. Many of us have been here before, in the 70’s; through incompetence and this type of indifference to the errors made over 12 years, we’re here again.
Lifelogic September 28, 2022
To avoid or to get out or a recession we need far less government waste, far smaller government, a bonfire of red tape, lower simpler taxes & cheap, reliable & on demand energy.
michelle September 27, 2022
I’ve never really seen or listened to any of these Talk Radio interviews. How refreshing for the guest to be listened to, not constantly interrupted and politely asked questions, not aggressive interrogation style.
The former being the usual BBC style when interviewing anyone not in the Labour party!! Hopefully people listened and learned from Sir John’s common sense views on rush to renewable without back up.
The need to bring people in with talent is the same old same old we’ve been hearing for far too long.
We’ve had millions come here using the same excuse, yet somehow there seems to be this continuous shortage.
It also shows how our own people have been let down with training, medical student shortages being one, and education.
We have too many people here already, none of which has been done by a democratic process. That puts pressure on everything making it look as if we have shortages.
We never hear of a trade deal with immigration thrown in from places such as Australia, Canada so I fail to see why we should have a huge influx from India which appears to be the desire from Truss as it was from Patel.
Is this all about the Britain Unchained book and an Asian economy?
Well, Truss & Co. you’ve no mandate for this from the public and as I read around I see it is hugely unpopular.
We are not a business to be remodelled.
Lifelogic September 27, 2022
Indeed Mike Graham is very good too as is GB news too. Especially Dan Wooton, Mark Steyn, Neil Oliver. They all show just how appalling and biased the dire BBC is.
The “vaccines” are being shown (as more and more statistics come out as these people report) to be rather ineffective and rather too dangerous. Why have we not stopped using them yet not even for the young as they have done already in Denmark.
jerry September 28, 2022
@LL; Yes some UK (never mind US) media outlets are very good at telling you want you want to hear, or what they want you to think, in the same way as Russian TASS and RT are at the opposite swing of the bias pendulum. Has either TalkTV (Talkradio) or GBN ever interviewed people such as Corbyn, McDonnell or Scargill? On the other hand the BBC has interviewed everyone from Reagan to Putin… š
Before some get on their usual hobby horses – Do I like the current BBC style, no; do I think the BBC needs fundamental change, yes; do I hold a candle for the BBC, no, just PSB; Is the BBC’s funding model out dated, yes.
As for vaccines, whose statistics are you citing, can you point us to their online peer reviews.
It has been known from day one some people can have reactions, hence why some defiantly can’t have them (and why we all still need to respect others personal space unless masked up) whilst others were advised to wait 15 minutes before leaving the vaccination centres. As for children, it would be more unethical to totally withdraw vaccines for children. This debate needs to be de-politicized.
jerry September 27, 2022
@michelle; Typical miss informed nonsense, the job of an interviewer is not just have a ‘fireside chat’, although there is a place for that, but to seek answers to questions people often do not necessarily want to give direct nor straight answers to, if they want to at all.
As for the BBC and the Labour party, I guess you’ve never heard those R4 Today interviews with regards Iraq, WMDs and an alleged ‘sexed up’ dossier, at least those carried out before a certain No.10 government press secretary objected? Also Harold Wilson had several running battles with the BBC during his time as Leader (both as PM and as opposition leader), look up the story behind a programme called “Yesterdays Men” broadcast in 1971 – Wilson so objected to one question asked by the presenter of that programme he never agreed to be interviewed by the man again. Such was the fallout, the BBC had remove the said question and agreed never to repeat the programme during Wilson’s lifetime. To suggest the BBC is institutionally sycophantic towards the Labour party and only the Labour party is wide of the mark.
Lifelogic September 28, 2022
Well you are going back rather. What was this āquestionā to Harold Wilson?
This devaluation will not devalue āthe pound in your pocketā he lied to the nation but he did sensibly keep us out of Vietnam.
jerry September 28, 2022
@LL; WMDs and 2003 is hardly going back that far!
As for Harold Wilson, apparently he was asked some question about his forthcoming memoirs and a book/serialization deal, as terse as things were before broadcast there was ever more disquiet post transmission due to the overly negative image given of Labour and their front bench, even the programme title and specially commissioned theme tune/song being criticized when compared to the positive image given to Ted Heath in a programme broadcast 24 hours later, and indeed that positive image lasted a good three years and can be seen in BBC programmes made about Heath and our entry into the EEC.
“This devaluation will not devalue āthe pound in your pocketā he lied to the nation”
Not really a lie, that pound in the then average persons pocket WAS still worth 240 (old) pence, it just didn’t buy as much when buying imported goods, but that was half of the point. On the other hand exporters and thus our trade balance loved it!
Vernon Wright September 27, 2022
271726Z
Might not conform to the station’s format but would have been useful to put up a chart of the DXY ā the USD against other currencies ā which helps to explain Sterling’s so called slump. Sterling hasn’t moved very much at all, given the amount of chatter about it; what has been happening for some time now is that, in an environment of near blind panic, funds have fled to the usual safe haven, the U.S. Dollar.
Naturally as that doesn’t match the usual left-wing story of the media ā any comment at the Labour conference illustrates this ā it’s not mentioned.
Ī Ī
jerry September 28, 2022
@Vernon Wright; Well yes the FX speculators are happy, they got to bet on many other currencies too, not just the the busted GBP! But away on ‘main street’ here in the UK it doesn’t change the fact that UK companies and consumers will be paying substantially more for oil & gas based products, shipping and anything else where the transactions based on the USD (such as imports from China). It won’t change that HMT and the mere plebs are having to pay a lot more to furnish existing and future debts.
hefner September 28, 2022
OSS117w&
Over 20 years, Ā£ goes from $1.57 to $1.07, ā¬ from $1.01 to $0.96
Over ten years, related to the $, Ā£ slumps by -34%, ā¬ by -26%
Obviously some guignols can pontificate about what those currencies over the last hour or the last day. They remain sad clowns.
āNaturally as that doesn’t match the usual right-wing story, itās not mentionedā.
ŠŃŃ
Peter2 September 28, 2022
Another example of your desire for decent debate eh heffy
PS
Over the last 5 years the Euro has sunk from 1.20 to 0.96
The pound from 1.31 to 1.07
You might like to work out the percentages heffy.
You being so clever ‘n all
jerry September 28, 2022
P2; Err?! So over the last 5 years, before the current FX crash, what you seems to be suggesting is; the value of the EUR dropped by 24 US cents, the GBP dropped by 34 US cents, yet the GBP out preformed the EUR… š³
Peter2 September 28, 2022
Sorry Jerry
I’m a bit confused what your conclusion actually is.
Peter2 September 29, 2022
PS
The pound dropped 24 cents not 34 cents as you said Jerry
Then if you do the percentages..
jerry September 29, 2022
@P2; “Then if you do the percentages..”
Go on then, I’m all ears….
Nor that percentages matter, unless a currency speculator playing the FX markets š
Peter2 September 29, 2022
Percentages do matter if you want to compare the relative declines, because the 2 currencies begin at different figures.
So counting in cents isn’t a good way of comparing.
jerry September 29, 2022
@P2; But we were not comparing relative declines, that was just another of your red herrings, to deflect from the real issue, a very large single decline over very short time span (about 6 hours) on just one day, and thus counting cents is a very good way of comparing such movement, that’s why the markets do it, why politicos do it, why the specialized business media groups do it.
But have it your way P2, by your own admission, you still haven’t supplied any real facts, I think you just like arguing, is it your hobby?! š
Whatever….
Iain Gill September 27, 2022
John,
Great interview, thanks.
Your “compromise” on immigration wont work for a number of reasons
1 the “qualifications” some of the entrants have come from corrupt colleges where plagiarism and favouritism for some families & religions is massive. and the CV’s they come with are full of lies too.
2 the state is very poor and figuring out what genuine “shortage occupations” are, indeed it often manipulates training of locals to force shortages and an excuse to let more immigrants in.
3 pay too is poor measure, especially as many are getting big tax perks here to undercut locals.
4 for many countries its far harder for a Brit to get a work visa to that country, than it is for a national of that country to get one here
5 when I work abroad I dont expect to pick up local citizenship, many we give work visas to end up here forever
6 too many bringing in family with expensive pre existing medical conditions which are a burden on the NHS, and large numbers of kids who cost a lot for school places (none of this would be reciprocal for Brits working in their home country)
et blomming cetera
jerry September 28, 2022
@Ian Gill; “for many countries its far harder for a Brit to get a work visa to that country, than it is for a national of that country to get one here”
Why might that be though, perhaps the UK is simply crying out for people in many more sectors than other countries, who can fill such vacancies from the indigenous population?
Iain Gill September 28, 2022
no the reason is that our leaders are simply worse negotiators, with the wool pulled over their eyes more easily, than their foreign counterparts
that’s the bottom line
the negotiating position of countries like India is outrageous, yet our political & ruling class never spot the obvious
jerry September 28, 2022
@Iain Gill; No that’s just your rather Jaundice “bottom line”.
Try asking around the agricultural sector if they have any difficulty attracting UK school leavers into the industry were working outside in all weathers is the norm and 14+ hour days are common -especially in the summer months, harvest time when the music festivals are on etc; ask in the transport sector if they have any problems attracting slightly older people into the industry where early starts, late finishes or working away from home are common -including overnight on the road side in the sleeper cab, perhaps having to use what ever you can as a toilet; ask in any sector that can’t pay much more than the NMW because the margins are simply not there. Tell me Ian, were are all the UK born and breed trained medical staff, to fill those NHS jobs, heck even the UK’s private health sector recruit overseas staff for their hospitals.
Iain Gill September 29, 2022
before the days of unfettered immigration there used to be seasonal migration within the UK to deal with harvest time. for instance people from the North East of England would travel to the South East of England to take part in the harvesting, and many would move through the country as the best time to harvest rippled through the country. the reasons this stopped are mainly state manipulations:
1 social housing tenancies do not allow the tenant to leave the property empty for a few months while they work away
2 far too hard to sign off and back onto benefits, and often risk significantly worse terms as a new claimant
3 lazy mass immigration allowed, depressing pay so much that its hardly worth the bother of paying for travelling, paying for accommodation, and having to deal with the hassle of variable pay & the benefits system
so I dont buy this nonsense that we need mass immigration.
jerry September 29, 2022
@Ian Gill; I was talking about the period since 1945, you seem to be talking about the early 1800! Even then you totally ignore the fact that farmers and land owners would often suppliy tied cottages for their permanent workers and accommodation for seasonal pickers, even if it was just tents or a barn.
But I agree with your first two bullet points, indeed the 1980s housing ‘revolution’ has meant people are more or less stuck were they live now, gone are the days of LA housing transfers etc, worse if one has to sell up to move. Which is why govt DWP Minsters citing total numbers of UK job vacancies is utterly meaningless, 50 vacancies on Tyne-side are not a lot of help for those stuck in Devon unable to move even if they want.
Mass immigration does not depress pay in its self, cheap imports & off-shoring do, either by making UK business and factories match those overseas wages or become uncompetitive which depressed pay due to higher UK unemployment.
Iain Gill September 30, 2022
Jerry,
No I was talking about my parents generation, who were born in the war or just after, when they were teens/twenties this was still common.
Cheers
jerry September 30, 2022
@Ian Gill; Oh you mean that generation who refused to do certain jobs in the 1950s and early ’60s, for which our economy had to send for immigrants from what are now commonwealth countries? Funny how the same generation then demanded those self-same jobs for themselves, doing so whilst calling immigrants lazy and much worse, when by the late ’60s and into the 1970s the economy started to overheat and slow.
As they say, leopards can’t change their spots, once a leopard always a leopard. Go find another scapegoat for your own failings or those who you voted for…
Iain Gill October 1, 2022
Slagging off the work ethic of the majority of the population is a poor approach.
Its the countries leadership which was and is the problem, not the worker bees.
jerry October 1, 2022
@Iain Gill; Yours is the usual undiluted bilge water, typical comments from the unthinking hard right, always someone else’s fault, always a conspiracy. Nor was I calling UK born “worker bees” lazy, I said they started calling non UK people lazy, along with other insults.
a-tracy September 28, 2022
Iain, what are the occupations we’re issuing so many visas for that you are talking about? What is the degree required? With 50% of UK university students going to university each year by now you’d expect with their extra two years of A levels, we’d be training people in the UK for these posts if ‘education’ was working correctly.
Iain Gill September 28, 2022
remember in subjects like medicine the British state artificially constrains the numbers of locals allowed to enter medical school. the schools can admit as many foreigners as they want, but the state limits the numbers of locals who are allowed to apply.
in subjects like computer science the government has seen fit to print hundreds of thousands of visas for Indian nationals to work in IT, depressing wages, discouraging firms from training locals, allowing some of our best intellectual property to leak to India to be used to undercut this country, so much so that young Brits are discouraged from entering education and training in these fields as they can see pay is being driven down to lowest levels possible.
etc
jerry September 29, 2022
@Iain Gill; “the British state artificially constrains the numbers of locals allowed to enter medical school”
Why is that though, to fund tax cuts perhaps, if taxes are cut to the minimum it goes without saying (or should, given any intelligence) that some things don’t get funded, such as funding UK medical students.
Go find another scapegoat, try looking in the mirror!
Iain Gill September 30, 2022
nope the British state should be allowing at least as many Brits enter medical training, as the medical business in the UK needs, allowing for those that fall by the wayside. the problem being that the NHS has no workforce plan, it has no idea how many of each skill it needs through each year projected ahead, and has no idea how to go about delivering that. the state has artificially created a shortage of medics each year for decades, as an excuse to import foreign doctors “because it would take 6 years to train up a local”. there would never have been a shortage had there been a proper workforce plan, and enough locals had been allowed to enter training. this is all now beyond a bad joke. the system is being played by those in the public sector who actively want mass immigration, who use this as a means to force it.
jerry October 1, 2022
@Iain Gill; I broadly agree, but that will mean increasing taxes not cutting them! The UK used to be a country that would send both NHS and MOD trained doctors and nurses to help out around the world, but then came the need save money. How many MOD run hospitals and rehabilitation centers have closed, how much has the MOD budget been cut in real terms, in the last 60 or so years?
As for hospital orderlies and non front line staff etc, yes the NHS has been dependent on migrant workers for decades now -as was BR and LU, but that was largely due to UK citizens not wanting to do such jobs.
Try looking further than your P60, the problem is not migration per se but our tax culture…
jerry September 28, 2022
@a-tracy; “Iain, what are the occupations ..//.. What is the degree required?”
Does one need a degree to cut cabbages, install a gas boiler, build a house, work on a production line, most office work?
Such people might well need to gain qualifications true, but all will likely do so via on the job training or day-release to a FE college, perhaps even a block release type course, almost no one will need to progress to a degree level of education and if they do again it will likely be via night school or from the OU, a very small percentage will be given leave of absence to attend residential Uni or college. Well that’s how it used to be and how things should still be…
“With 50% of UK university students going to university each year”
Ever stopped to think about that number, if 50% of (what seems to be) an ever falling population are removing themselves from the work place for at least three years, and then expect ‘highly paid employment’ when they do enter the job market, might that be why this country ends up being overly reliant on migrant labour for average and lower skilled jobs, everything from bricklayers, plumbers to farm work, the latter actually often now being a (technical) high skilled job but one for which on the job training is often vital, even for those who do attended college or Uni.
For many jobs ‘Degree level qualifications’ have just become an easy simplistic away for HR depts to filter applicants..
Cheshire Girl September 28, 2022
Ian Gill.
You are quite correct (Sentence Number 4). In 1969, my late Husband applied for a visa to work in the USA. Although very well qualified (Scientific Instruments) he was turned down twice. His Company had to prove, that they couldn’t find a US citizen to fill the vacancy.
Eventually, on the third attempt a visa was approved. We lived in the USA for 15 years, and got green cards.
When I look and see how easy many immigrants find it to come and live and work in the UK, I find it astounding. It seems that all one has to say is āasylumā and youāre in.
Despite many promises, nothing has been done about this, and, new government not withstanding, I donāt expect anything to change any time soon.
Iain Gill September 29, 2022
US and UK work visas are relatively reciprocal, I worked in Chicago for a long time, apart from they get free healthcare and schooling for their children when here, where we basically have to pay there. Indeed, an American friend here on a work visa gave birth in a UK hospital, and at the end she actively tried to pay, she could well afford the 10 to 15 grand bill she was expecting, but after a few months she gave up as the NHS simply didn’t want her money, it was too hard to pay them.
There are countries were the differences are far more dramatic, it is way harder for a Brit to get a work visa for India than it is for an Indian national to get a work visa here. And the tax and perks (free education for the kids & healthcare, & tax perks) are massively one sided. But our political class keep signing up to this and giving ever more away.
jerry September 29, 2022
@Iain Gill; “they get free healthcare and schooling for their children when [working in the UK]”
I assume you’re talking about 6 month placements then, or whatever the tax-period is/was, meaning those placed would leave the UK and then claim their taxes back? Otherwise those people were not getting free health care here in the UK as they were paying both NI and income tax. On the other hand a British person working in the US quite possibly did get free US health care via their employers group insurance plan and also paid a lot less tax too.
but after a few months she gave up as the NHS simply didnāt want her money, it was too hard to pay them.”
More to the point, the NHS doesn’t really have any system to accept that sort of payment I suspect, and why should it. Did she try to contact HMRC and made a voluntary payment that way. Failing that, if she felt so strongly, why not make a contribution to a suitable charity. Sounds like she didn’t try that hard, if at all.
Iain Gill September 30, 2022
you realise that work visa holders get to work in this country both employers and employees national insurance free, completely zero, for their 1st 12 months in the country. and that the big outsourcers often use this to the max? eg pairing people up, one abroad one here, and swap them every 12 months, so that between them they perpetually replace a local worker here but never have to pay ANY NATIONAL INSURANCE WHATSOEVER indefinitely
as a simple example
jerry October 1, 2022
@Iain Gill; So as I said then, meaning the problem is not our immigration/visa systems but our tax system, as many on the left of the Labour party keep pointing out!
Iain Gill October 1, 2022
the tax AND benefits system are certainly way too complicated, and consequently expensive to administer, both for the state and also for employers and tax payers.
they could both do with a massive simplification, making the software needed to manage them far simpler, and taking hundreds of millions of GBP out from the cost of admin of tax & benefits.
problem is politicians like meddling with them, and constant tinkering. and they like to use them to socially engineer society. which is directly contrary aim to simplification.
but immigration problem is not just the tax system its also the way illegal & legal immigration is managed by the state.
jerry October 1, 2022
@Iain Gill; Tax rates are not complicated; compliance, allowances and finding loopholes to exploit and thus pay less tax is! Social Benefits are indeed complicated, their complex nature usual being designed to discourage claiming in the first place, and then perversely discourage moving off benefits in an orderly way, something UC was meant to sort out but seems to have made things even worse. If working credits (benefits) are to complex is it any surprise some opt to shy away from the lower paid jobs.
If you want better public services, more people trained by the State to work in public services such as the NHS, the State needs to find the money to do that, short of robbing Peter to pay Paul, it will need raise tax receipts.
As for immigration, if we do not have a large enough indigenous working age population, perhaps because to many fit and able of working age choose to opt out of any work or certain types of work, for a period or entirely, or do not live were the work is, what should the govt do, shrink the economy or seek migrant workers to fill vacancies, or perhaps the govt should reintroduce labour controls, instruct people as to what work they do…
Iain Gill October 4, 2022
Re “If you want better public services” if you made the tax & benefits systems radically simpler, and therefore much cheaper to administer, then you could massively reduce the spend by the state on admin of taxes & benefits, strip lots of jobs out of the public sector that create nothing of use to society. And with the savings you could buy more capacity to improve public services that actually deliver something useful to the voters.
rose September 27, 2022
Very encouraging. Thank you.
jerry September 27, 2022
‘Asia overnight it was $1.03, when I checked my TV in the morning it was $1.08’
Indeed it was Sir John, and yes the market had rallied, but what was Ā£:$ rate Friday last (23rd) at 9am?!
Our hosts blames the markets for doing what the markets always do, as if he was surprised!
For pity sake, why didn’t some senior Tory PM with the ear of Truss or Kwarteng remember Black Wednesday (30 years ago, almost to the week) and say; ‘hang on, not so hasty, not so rash, if you do the markets will go very short on us and the GBP will tank’…
jerry September 28, 2022
Well according to some in the press this morning, Truss or Kwarteng were warned about short markets but chose to ignore such advice…
Related but a later interview from our host, on R4 this morning, he suggests everyone should wait until “the full policy is announced”, well best Kwarteng gets on and announces it then (I’m sure the Speaker and opposition parties will understand it being done outside of Parliament a sitting given the deteriorating situation), after all Kwarteng must surely have it all worked out and at least a draft speech written, the markets and lenders won’t wait 6 weeks, nor will others, such as the IMF. My suspicion though is nothing more has even been decided yet, Truss or Kwarteng just wanted to steal a thunder on Labour, days before Labour held their conference, but all they actually did was hand Starmer the golden egg.
Peter2 September 28, 2022
Why has the Euro and other currencies also fallen recently against the Dollar?
The Euro is at a twenty year low versus the dollar.
And looking at currency market movements over a few hours doesn’t give a good view.
jerry September 28, 2022
@Peter2, “Why has the Euro and other currencies also fallen”
Because the GBP tanked during, or immediately following, Kwarteng’s speech, taking other currencies with it?
So what spooled the markets P2, if it wasn’t the fiscal events here in the UK last Friday, might I ask which other event(s) did. Surely Ukraine & energy costs have been priced in for months, surely not a delayed reaction to the shutting down of Nord Stream 1 back in August (and the reported damage has happened since); did the ECB, DAX or CAC make an announcement, perhaps someone was hedging on Sundays Italian election results; or did the US Fed make an announcement overnight before their markets opened; perhaps the Japanese govt or Central bank made a announcement after their markets closed…
“And looking at currency market movements over a few hours doesnāt give a good view.”
Indeed, and some of us remember the time when the Ā£:$ ratio was above $1.50, if not $2.00. š
Peter2 September 29, 2022
Trends over the last five years show a different picture.
In percentage terms the Euro has fallen more than the Pound
And both the Euro (and a number of other currencies) and the Pound have struggled recently against a strong Dollar.
jerry September 29, 2022
@P2; The issue is not about past “Trends”, nor percentages, it’s about what happened last Friday and since. You’re also overly obsessed with the EUR, all currency’s moved last Friday, vast areas of the FX boards went red, doing so during and immediately following the UK Chancellors mini budget, and yet you refuse to acknowledge that fact.
“And both the Euro (and a number of other currencies) and the Pound have struggled recently against a strong Dollar.”
Indeed, so even more cause for the UK govt not to do anything that will spook the markets!
Peter2 September 29, 2022
A week in currency markets is a very small time frame.
My point is we have a volatile market.
Many currencies have fallen recently against a strong Dollar.
You feel its just the mini budget.
It had an effect but other things are causing the current situation as well.
And the Pound is now back to 1.09 from 1.03 which is the opposite reaction that some commentators predicted just a few days ago.
Some said below parity
jerry September 29, 2022
@P2; More red herrings from you. Not weeks, not days, not even 24hrs, the issue at hand happened over over a mater of hours. I’m open to SENSIBLE fact based suggestion as to why it wasn’t just the mini budget here in the UK.. As for Ā£:$, is the rate back to were it was this time last Thursday as of UK FX markets close, yes or no?
Lynn Atkinson September 27, 2022
Amen! Time British people understood that giving our jobs away also gives our comforts away, our solvency away, our country away.
Time to start dropping taxes, lifting thresholds and index linking. Then see what the State income is and cut their cloth accordingly.
If this crisis brings reality home to the dreamers – worth every shiver.
buttercup September 28, 2022
Time to ‘take back control’.. oops!.. I thought we had already done that
No Longer Anonymous September 27, 2022
All very well said. Just wish it had a wider audience.
Will in Hampshire September 27, 2022
The DT reports that the IMF has said:
āGiven elevated inflation pressures in many countries, including the UK, we do not recommend large and untargeted fiscal packages at this juncture, as it is important that fiscal policy does not work at cross purposes to monetary policy.ā
Iād be interested to hear from our host as to his opinion about whether or not fiscal and monetary policies are working at cross purposes in this country.
Sir Joe Soap September 27, 2022
There are two different aims. Decrease taxes to attract people to work and earn more, grow the economy. Increase interest rates to stabilise the exchange rate and enable those earners and their businesses to buy stuff from overseas in a stable price regime. The two policies seem completely consistent to me.
jerry September 28, 2022
@SJS; ” Decrease taxes to attract people to work and earn more”
So where were those tax cuts, oh yes, a 1p cut in the base rate, come next April, and a NI cut from this November, not much for the average person (who actually creates the wealth) to get their teeth into was there. Most independent analyses show the average person will still be worse off than they were before the energy crisis hit.
“enable those earners and their businesses to buy stuff from overseas in a stable price regime”
So much for growing the economy then, just yet more ‘Warehouse UK’, but at least the construction industry might have some work building industrial sheds instead of houses.
The two policies seem completely consistent to me.
Indeed, consistently bonkers, given it has been proven a larger cut in the base rate, a rise in the starting rate, along with a cut in VAT (to get people spending) would be far more effective in achieving the goals you suggest.
Peter2 September 28, 2022
A few hundred pounds a year isn’t the kind of thing to sneer about Jerry.
And a good indication of the direction of travel.
Would you prefer higher tax?
jerry September 29, 2022
@P2; “A few hundred pounds a year isnāt the kind of thing to sneer about Jerry.”
Actually you’ll find it’s actually about Ā£150 pa saving for those just eligible to pay tax, and not applicable until April next. But nor is Ā£55k per year either, now your 45% tax band has been cut back to 40%. Which family though will still be having to choose between heating and eating this winter, even with the universal energy support scheme that even those now saving Ā£55k on tax also get?
Peter2 September 29, 2022
Still sneering then Jerry.
One minute you say the tax changes in the mini budget were so huge that the reaction caused a crisis next you say the changes are minimal.
Can’t be both.
Peter2 September 29, 2022
And don’t forget the Ā£400 winter payment for the next 6 months and the energy cap worth up to Ā£1000
It is worth overall, as I said several hundred pounds per family.
jerry September 29, 2022
@P2; “And donāt forget the Ā£400 winter payment”
Oh stop trolling, you didn’t even have the decency to actually reading what I said, otherwise what exactly do you not understand in the following;
“…Which family though will still be having to choose between heating and eating this winter, even with the universal energy support scheme that even those now saving Ā£55k on tax also get”
The only person “sneering” is you P2, no doubt you’ll be asking why people can’t eat cake next….
formula57 September 27, 2022
Watched, nodding in agreement throughout, enjoyed.
The Government needs more cogent advocacy in its favour like this you provide. The prospects for the 45 per cent. tax rate cut to 40 per cent. actually yielding more tax revenue has not cut through to public consciousness, for example.
Lifelogic September 28, 2022
It will produce more tax revenue in the medium to long term even 40% is still too high for the top rate. 30% would be more sensible in the UK. More jobs, more growth and a much larger tax base would result too. Many countries have top rates of only 20% or lower and some have a tax caps of circa Ā£200k or so once you have payed that you have no more to pay. Why should you they will only waste it on idiotic things like the lockdown, net zero, duff degree, vaccines that did net harmā¦? You are not likely to be getting much back from the government especially is you use private medicine & private schools then what is this Ā£200k paying for? People will invest and use the money far more beneficially that governments will.
hefner September 28, 2022
I checked and the following 30 countries indeed have their top tax rates at 20% or below:
Take your pick: Afghanistan, Belarus, Cambodia, Fiji, Guatemala, Guernsey, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iraq, I of Man, Jersey, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, North Korea, Macau, Maldives, Marshall I, Mauritius, Monaco (0%), Mongolia, N.Macedonia, Palestine, Paraguay, Pitcairn Island (0%), Sark (0%), Saudi Arabia (0%), Syria, Ukraine, UAE (0%), Yemen.
Peter2 September 28, 2022
Good for them heffy.
Low tax small State is what we need.
To improve standards of living for all.
Obviously you agree.
hefner September 28, 2022
According to HMRC, there are 27.2 m basic rate tax payers, there were 5.5 m higher 40% rate and 0.630 m additional 45% rate tax payers. Also from HMRC figures these 630,000 people were contributing Ā£90 bn, ie Ā£143k pp. to the total tax take. From the Chancellorās recent announcement and assuming nothing else changes these people would now only contribute Ā£80 bn, ie Ā£127k pp moving from 45 to 40%.
The Chancellorās assumption is that each of them will now provide more than Ā£15.8k in other taxes from their new investments and activities to get back to the previous Ā£90 bn.
It will be interesting to see whether this actually happens, what the additional tax take will be, whether it even surpasses the previous number as is commonly advertised and over which timescale.
Peter2 September 28, 2022
Add NI to that top rate you are over 50%
My opinion, and for once allow me to have an opinion heffy, is that any country that takes over 50% of a citizen’s earnings is guilty of theft.
margaret September 28, 2022
I went to the bank as I could not believe that I had actually had my wages paid in ! I checked on savings , interest rates and in large print all over the electronic activity were the words” Not tax exempt” .Come on we are not this stupid.
a-tracy September 28, 2022
There seems to be a lot of angst about a tax cut due in six months. The pound was already tanking along with the euro against the dollar, but you wouldn’t think it to listen to the press.
Kwarteng has only immediately put a rise into the starting rate before paying 12% down from 13.25% national insurance. Yet these were the headlines in March 2022 “6 Mar 2022 ā Both Tory and Labour MPs believe Sunak can still be persuaded to ditch the 1.25 percentage point rise ā announced last September to fund the NHS” Guardian.
I’d like to read from one interview in the press what Truss and Kwarteng’s expectation is from the 5% decrease in tax at the top end of the earning scale, what are the targets they’re hoping to achieve by it, a short-term financial fill up to the tax pot as people bring forward earnings? But won’t that just depress earnings and taxes for the rest of this year?
The 19p tax rate was just brought forward a year, so why the hyperbole? He’s trying to kick start the economy and stop it going into recession. Everyone, and I mean everyone, was against Osborne’s Austerity measures. We’ve had low growth because the blimin Country was shut down by covid!!! Hello did everyone forget, Labour wanted it shut down longer and harder.
“Torsten Bell, the chief executive of the Resolution Foundation think tank, said those earning Ā£1m annually will get a Ā£55,000 tax cut next year.”
How many people earn Ā£1m annually in the UK? Who are they? Do they want the tax cut or not, Gary Neville says NO let’s have a charity provision so they can immediately set it sidewards for the government to spend. Apparently, one KC in Scotland has threatened to move to England if Scotland doesn’t match, so there are some honest people in this Country. Doctors are threatening to quit early because of the cap on pensions, yet no-one considers them selfish or greedy and they’re amongst the wealthiest in our Country and they still want to optimise their tax bills so they can earn the money and don’t have to set it aside in their pension now.
Reply Anyone who thinks they should pay more tax can send a gift to HMRC. There is a website on gov.uk to do so.
September 27, 2022
Well the cancellation of Sunakās vast, serial manifesto ratting, tax grabs on NICs and Corp. Tax were not ātax cutsā at all just cancellation of appalling, Tory proposed, tax increases. I note Kwasi retains Sunakās other huge tax grab – the many frozen allowances at a time of very high inflation. Inflation causes by Sunakās deliberate currency debasing.
Also energy crisis was mainly causes by the mad war on plant, tree amd crop food not by the war. Indeed the mad energy agenda almost certainly helped encourage the war.
Green or grey hydrogen are generally daft ideas outside of a few very specific areas. Wastes vast amounts of energy and costs a fortune with no real upside on using methane or coal and only generating electricity when it is actually needed.
September 27, 2022
I disagree. We have just heard a politician talk about all the things that NEED to be done, growing more of what we eat, making more of what we consume and producing more of what we need to cook and keep us warm. HOWEVER, his government has not brought forward policies to make these things happen! Why not?
Sir J admits that we import a lot of what we consume, for which we pay in foreign currency, much in US$. The fall in the Ā£ puts up the costs we pay in the shops. Oh, that’s just market players doing what they do and we can’t do anything about it. YES you can, you can return confidence and value in Ā£ by increasing interest rates.
Sir J thinks we’re not heading for a recession, lets remind him of this over the next 6 months. Many of us have been here before, in the 70’s; through incompetence and this type of indifference to the errors made over 12 years, we’re here again.
September 28, 2022
To avoid or to get out or a recession we need far less government waste, far smaller government, a bonfire of red tape, lower simpler taxes & cheap, reliable & on demand energy.
September 27, 2022
I’ve never really seen or listened to any of these Talk Radio interviews. How refreshing for the guest to be listened to, not constantly interrupted and politely asked questions, not aggressive interrogation style.
The former being the usual BBC style when interviewing anyone not in the Labour party!! Hopefully people listened and learned from Sir John’s common sense views on rush to renewable without back up.
The need to bring people in with talent is the same old same old we’ve been hearing for far too long.
We’ve had millions come here using the same excuse, yet somehow there seems to be this continuous shortage.
It also shows how our own people have been let down with training, medical student shortages being one, and education.
We have too many people here already, none of which has been done by a democratic process. That puts pressure on everything making it look as if we have shortages.
We never hear of a trade deal with immigration thrown in from places such as Australia, Canada so I fail to see why we should have a huge influx from India which appears to be the desire from Truss as it was from Patel.
Is this all about the Britain Unchained book and an Asian economy?
Well, Truss & Co. you’ve no mandate for this from the public and as I read around I see it is hugely unpopular.
We are not a business to be remodelled.
September 27, 2022
Indeed Mike Graham is very good too as is GB news too. Especially Dan Wooton, Mark Steyn, Neil Oliver. They all show just how appalling and biased the dire BBC is.
The “vaccines” are being shown (as more and more statistics come out as these people report) to be rather ineffective and rather too dangerous. Why have we not stopped using them yet not even for the young as they have done already in Denmark.
September 28, 2022
@LL; Yes some UK (never mind US) media outlets are very good at telling you want you want to hear, or what they want you to think, in the same way as Russian TASS and RT are at the opposite swing of the bias pendulum. Has either TalkTV (Talkradio) or GBN ever interviewed people such as Corbyn, McDonnell or Scargill? On the other hand the BBC has interviewed everyone from Reagan to Putin… š
Before some get on their usual hobby horses – Do I like the current BBC style, no; do I think the BBC needs fundamental change, yes; do I hold a candle for the BBC, no, just PSB; Is the BBC’s funding model out dated, yes.
As for vaccines, whose statistics are you citing, can you point us to their online peer reviews.
It has been known from day one some people can have reactions, hence why some defiantly can’t have them (and why we all still need to respect others personal space unless masked up) whilst others were advised to wait 15 minutes before leaving the vaccination centres. As for children, it would be more unethical to totally withdraw vaccines for children. This debate needs to be de-politicized.
September 27, 2022
@michelle; Typical miss informed nonsense, the job of an interviewer is not just have a ‘fireside chat’, although there is a place for that, but to seek answers to questions people often do not necessarily want to give direct nor straight answers to, if they want to at all.
As for the BBC and the Labour party, I guess you’ve never heard those R4 Today interviews with regards Iraq, WMDs and an alleged ‘sexed up’ dossier, at least those carried out before a certain No.10 government press secretary objected? Also Harold Wilson had several running battles with the BBC during his time as Leader (both as PM and as opposition leader), look up the story behind a programme called “Yesterdays Men” broadcast in 1971 – Wilson so objected to one question asked by the presenter of that programme he never agreed to be interviewed by the man again. Such was the fallout, the BBC had remove the said question and agreed never to repeat the programme during Wilson’s lifetime. To suggest the BBC is institutionally sycophantic towards the Labour party and only the Labour party is wide of the mark.
September 28, 2022
Well you are going back rather. What was this āquestionā to Harold Wilson?
This devaluation will not devalue āthe pound in your pocketā he lied to the nation but he did sensibly keep us out of Vietnam.
September 28, 2022
@LL; WMDs and 2003 is hardly going back that far!
As for Harold Wilson, apparently he was asked some question about his forthcoming memoirs and a book/serialization deal, as terse as things were before broadcast there was ever more disquiet post transmission due to the overly negative image given of Labour and their front bench, even the programme title and specially commissioned theme tune/song being criticized when compared to the positive image given to Ted Heath in a programme broadcast 24 hours later, and indeed that positive image lasted a good three years and can be seen in BBC programmes made about Heath and our entry into the EEC.
“This devaluation will not devalue āthe pound in your pocketā he lied to the nation”
Not really a lie, that pound in the then average persons pocket WAS still worth 240 (old) pence, it just didn’t buy as much when buying imported goods, but that was half of the point. On the other hand exporters and thus our trade balance loved it!
September 27, 2022
271726Z
Might not conform to the station’s format but would have been useful to put up a chart of the DXY ā the USD against other currencies ā which helps to explain Sterling’s so called slump. Sterling hasn’t moved very much at all, given the amount of chatter about it; what has been happening for some time now is that, in an environment of near blind panic, funds have fled to the usual safe haven, the U.S. Dollar.
Naturally as that doesn’t match the usual left-wing story of the media ā any comment at the Labour conference illustrates this ā it’s not mentioned.
Ī Ī
September 28, 2022
@Vernon Wright; Well yes the FX speculators are happy, they got to bet on many other currencies too, not just the the busted GBP! But away on ‘main street’ here in the UK it doesn’t change the fact that UK companies and consumers will be paying substantially more for oil & gas based products, shipping and anything else where the transactions based on the USD (such as imports from China). It won’t change that HMT and the mere plebs are having to pay a lot more to furnish existing and future debts.
September 28, 2022
OSS117w&
Over 20 years, Ā£ goes from $1.57 to $1.07, ā¬ from $1.01 to $0.96
Over ten years, related to the $, Ā£ slumps by -34%, ā¬ by -26%
Obviously some guignols can pontificate about what those currencies over the last hour or the last day. They remain sad clowns.
āNaturally as that doesn’t match the usual right-wing story, itās not mentionedā.
ŠŃŃ
September 28, 2022
Another example of your desire for decent debate eh heffy
PS
Over the last 5 years the Euro has sunk from 1.20 to 0.96
The pound from 1.31 to 1.07
You might like to work out the percentages heffy.
You being so clever ‘n all
September 28, 2022
P2; Err?! So over the last 5 years, before the current FX crash, what you seems to be suggesting is; the value of the EUR dropped by 24 US cents, the GBP dropped by 34 US cents, yet the GBP out preformed the EUR… š³
September 28, 2022
Sorry Jerry
I’m a bit confused what your conclusion actually is.
September 29, 2022
PS
The pound dropped 24 cents not 34 cents as you said Jerry
Then if you do the percentages..
September 29, 2022
@P2; “Then if you do the percentages..”
Go on then, I’m all ears….
Nor that percentages matter, unless a currency speculator playing the FX markets š
September 29, 2022
Percentages do matter if you want to compare the relative declines, because the 2 currencies begin at different figures.
So counting in cents isn’t a good way of comparing.
September 29, 2022
@P2; But we were not comparing relative declines, that was just another of your red herrings, to deflect from the real issue, a very large single decline over very short time span (about 6 hours) on just one day, and thus counting cents is a very good way of comparing such movement, that’s why the markets do it, why politicos do it, why the specialized business media groups do it.
But have it your way P2, by your own admission, you still haven’t supplied any real facts, I think you just like arguing, is it your hobby?! š
Whatever….
September 27, 2022
John,
Great interview, thanks.
Your “compromise” on immigration wont work for a number of reasons
1 the “qualifications” some of the entrants have come from corrupt colleges where plagiarism and favouritism for some families & religions is massive. and the CV’s they come with are full of lies too.
2 the state is very poor and figuring out what genuine “shortage occupations” are, indeed it often manipulates training of locals to force shortages and an excuse to let more immigrants in.
3 pay too is poor measure, especially as many are getting big tax perks here to undercut locals.
4 for many countries its far harder for a Brit to get a work visa to that country, than it is for a national of that country to get one here
5 when I work abroad I dont expect to pick up local citizenship, many we give work visas to end up here forever
6 too many bringing in family with expensive pre existing medical conditions which are a burden on the NHS, and large numbers of kids who cost a lot for school places (none of this would be reciprocal for Brits working in their home country)
et blomming cetera
September 28, 2022
@Ian Gill; “for many countries its far harder for a Brit to get a work visa to that country, than it is for a national of that country to get one here”
Why might that be though, perhaps the UK is simply crying out for people in many more sectors than other countries, who can fill such vacancies from the indigenous population?
September 28, 2022
no the reason is that our leaders are simply worse negotiators, with the wool pulled over their eyes more easily, than their foreign counterparts
that’s the bottom line
the negotiating position of countries like India is outrageous, yet our political & ruling class never spot the obvious
September 28, 2022
@Iain Gill; No that’s just your rather Jaundice “bottom line”.
Try asking around the agricultural sector if they have any difficulty attracting UK school leavers into the industry were working outside in all weathers is the norm and 14+ hour days are common -especially in the summer months, harvest time when the music festivals are on etc; ask in the transport sector if they have any problems attracting slightly older people into the industry where early starts, late finishes or working away from home are common -including overnight on the road side in the sleeper cab, perhaps having to use what ever you can as a toilet; ask in any sector that can’t pay much more than the NMW because the margins are simply not there. Tell me Ian, were are all the UK born and breed trained medical staff, to fill those NHS jobs, heck even the UK’s private health sector recruit overseas staff for their hospitals.
September 29, 2022
before the days of unfettered immigration there used to be seasonal migration within the UK to deal with harvest time. for instance people from the North East of England would travel to the South East of England to take part in the harvesting, and many would move through the country as the best time to harvest rippled through the country. the reasons this stopped are mainly state manipulations:
1 social housing tenancies do not allow the tenant to leave the property empty for a few months while they work away
2 far too hard to sign off and back onto benefits, and often risk significantly worse terms as a new claimant
3 lazy mass immigration allowed, depressing pay so much that its hardly worth the bother of paying for travelling, paying for accommodation, and having to deal with the hassle of variable pay & the benefits system
so I dont buy this nonsense that we need mass immigration.
September 29, 2022
@Ian Gill; I was talking about the period since 1945, you seem to be talking about the early 1800! Even then you totally ignore the fact that farmers and land owners would often suppliy tied cottages for their permanent workers and accommodation for seasonal pickers, even if it was just tents or a barn.
But I agree with your first two bullet points, indeed the 1980s housing ‘revolution’ has meant people are more or less stuck were they live now, gone are the days of LA housing transfers etc, worse if one has to sell up to move. Which is why govt DWP Minsters citing total numbers of UK job vacancies is utterly meaningless, 50 vacancies on Tyne-side are not a lot of help for those stuck in Devon unable to move even if they want.
Mass immigration does not depress pay in its self, cheap imports & off-shoring do, either by making UK business and factories match those overseas wages or become uncompetitive which depressed pay due to higher UK unemployment.
September 30, 2022
Jerry,
No I was talking about my parents generation, who were born in the war or just after, when they were teens/twenties this was still common.
Cheers
September 30, 2022
@Ian Gill; Oh you mean that generation who refused to do certain jobs in the 1950s and early ’60s, for which our economy had to send for immigrants from what are now commonwealth countries? Funny how the same generation then demanded those self-same jobs for themselves, doing so whilst calling immigrants lazy and much worse, when by the late ’60s and into the 1970s the economy started to overheat and slow.
As they say, leopards can’t change their spots, once a leopard always a leopard. Go find another scapegoat for your own failings or those who you voted for…
October 1, 2022
Slagging off the work ethic of the majority of the population is a poor approach.
Its the countries leadership which was and is the problem, not the worker bees.
October 1, 2022
@Iain Gill; Yours is the usual undiluted bilge water, typical comments from the unthinking hard right, always someone else’s fault, always a conspiracy. Nor was I calling UK born “worker bees” lazy, I said they started calling non UK people lazy, along with other insults.
September 28, 2022
Iain, what are the occupations we’re issuing so many visas for that you are talking about? What is the degree required? With 50% of UK university students going to university each year by now you’d expect with their extra two years of A levels, we’d be training people in the UK for these posts if ‘education’ was working correctly.
September 28, 2022
remember in subjects like medicine the British state artificially constrains the numbers of locals allowed to enter medical school. the schools can admit as many foreigners as they want, but the state limits the numbers of locals who are allowed to apply.
in subjects like computer science the government has seen fit to print hundreds of thousands of visas for Indian nationals to work in IT, depressing wages, discouraging firms from training locals, allowing some of our best intellectual property to leak to India to be used to undercut this country, so much so that young Brits are discouraged from entering education and training in these fields as they can see pay is being driven down to lowest levels possible.
etc
September 29, 2022
@Iain Gill; “the British state artificially constrains the numbers of locals allowed to enter medical school”
Why is that though, to fund tax cuts perhaps, if taxes are cut to the minimum it goes without saying (or should, given any intelligence) that some things don’t get funded, such as funding UK medical students.
Go find another scapegoat, try looking in the mirror!
September 30, 2022
nope the British state should be allowing at least as many Brits enter medical training, as the medical business in the UK needs, allowing for those that fall by the wayside. the problem being that the NHS has no workforce plan, it has no idea how many of each skill it needs through each year projected ahead, and has no idea how to go about delivering that. the state has artificially created a shortage of medics each year for decades, as an excuse to import foreign doctors “because it would take 6 years to train up a local”. there would never have been a shortage had there been a proper workforce plan, and enough locals had been allowed to enter training. this is all now beyond a bad joke. the system is being played by those in the public sector who actively want mass immigration, who use this as a means to force it.
October 1, 2022
@Iain Gill; I broadly agree, but that will mean increasing taxes not cutting them! The UK used to be a country that would send both NHS and MOD trained doctors and nurses to help out around the world, but then came the need save money. How many MOD run hospitals and rehabilitation centers have closed, how much has the MOD budget been cut in real terms, in the last 60 or so years?
As for hospital orderlies and non front line staff etc, yes the NHS has been dependent on migrant workers for decades now -as was BR and LU, but that was largely due to UK citizens not wanting to do such jobs.
Try looking further than your P60, the problem is not migration per se but our tax culture…
September 28, 2022
@a-tracy; “Iain, what are the occupations ..//.. What is the degree required?”
Does one need a degree to cut cabbages, install a gas boiler, build a house, work on a production line, most office work?
Such people might well need to gain qualifications true, but all will likely do so via on the job training or day-release to a FE college, perhaps even a block release type course, almost no one will need to progress to a degree level of education and if they do again it will likely be via night school or from the OU, a very small percentage will be given leave of absence to attend residential Uni or college. Well that’s how it used to be and how things should still be…
“With 50% of UK university students going to university each year”
Ever stopped to think about that number, if 50% of (what seems to be) an ever falling population are removing themselves from the work place for at least three years, and then expect ‘highly paid employment’ when they do enter the job market, might that be why this country ends up being overly reliant on migrant labour for average and lower skilled jobs, everything from bricklayers, plumbers to farm work, the latter actually often now being a (technical) high skilled job but one for which on the job training is often vital, even for those who do attended college or Uni.
For many jobs ‘Degree level qualifications’ have just become an
easysimplistic away for HR depts to filter applicants..September 28, 2022
Ian Gill.
You are quite correct (Sentence Number 4). In 1969, my late Husband applied for a visa to work in the USA. Although very well qualified (Scientific Instruments) he was turned down twice. His Company had to prove, that they couldn’t find a US citizen to fill the vacancy.
Eventually, on the third attempt a visa was approved. We lived in the USA for 15 years, and got green cards.
When I look and see how easy many immigrants find it to come and live and work in the UK, I find it astounding. It seems that all one has to say is āasylumā and youāre in.
Despite many promises, nothing has been done about this, and, new government not withstanding, I donāt expect anything to change any time soon.
September 29, 2022
US and UK work visas are relatively reciprocal, I worked in Chicago for a long time, apart from they get free healthcare and schooling for their children when here, where we basically have to pay there. Indeed, an American friend here on a work visa gave birth in a UK hospital, and at the end she actively tried to pay, she could well afford the 10 to 15 grand bill she was expecting, but after a few months she gave up as the NHS simply didn’t want her money, it was too hard to pay them.
There are countries were the differences are far more dramatic, it is way harder for a Brit to get a work visa for India than it is for an Indian national to get a work visa here. And the tax and perks (free education for the kids & healthcare, & tax perks) are massively one sided. But our political class keep signing up to this and giving ever more away.
September 29, 2022
@Iain Gill; “they get free healthcare and schooling for their children when [working in the UK]”
I assume you’re talking about 6 month placements then, or whatever the tax-period is/was, meaning those placed would leave the UK and then claim their taxes back? Otherwise those people were not getting free health care here in the UK as they were paying both NI and income tax. On the other hand a British person working in the US quite possibly did get free US health care via their employers group insurance plan and also paid a lot less tax too.
but after a few months she gave up as the NHS simply didnāt want her money, it was too hard to pay them.”
More to the point, the NHS doesn’t really have any system to accept that sort of payment I suspect, and why should it. Did she try to contact HMRC and made a voluntary payment that way. Failing that, if she felt so strongly, why not make a contribution to a suitable charity. Sounds like she didn’t try that hard, if at all.
September 30, 2022
you realise that work visa holders get to work in this country both employers and employees national insurance free, completely zero, for their 1st 12 months in the country. and that the big outsourcers often use this to the max? eg pairing people up, one abroad one here, and swap them every 12 months, so that between them they perpetually replace a local worker here but never have to pay ANY NATIONAL INSURANCE WHATSOEVER indefinitely
as a simple example
October 1, 2022
@Iain Gill; So as I said then, meaning the problem is not our immigration/visa systems but our tax system, as many on the left of the Labour party keep pointing out!
October 1, 2022
the tax AND benefits system are certainly way too complicated, and consequently expensive to administer, both for the state and also for employers and tax payers.
they could both do with a massive simplification, making the software needed to manage them far simpler, and taking hundreds of millions of GBP out from the cost of admin of tax & benefits.
problem is politicians like meddling with them, and constant tinkering. and they like to use them to socially engineer society. which is directly contrary aim to simplification.
but immigration problem is not just the tax system its also the way illegal & legal immigration is managed by the state.
October 1, 2022
@Iain Gill; Tax rates are not complicated; compliance, allowances and finding loopholes to exploit and thus pay less tax is! Social Benefits are indeed complicated, their complex nature usual being designed to discourage claiming in the first place, and then perversely discourage moving off benefits in an orderly way, something UC was meant to sort out but seems to have made things even worse. If working credits (benefits) are to complex is it any surprise some opt to shy away from the lower paid jobs.
If you want better public services, more people trained by the State to work in public services such as the NHS, the State needs to find the money to do that, short of robbing Peter to pay Paul, it will need raise tax receipts.
As for immigration, if we do not have a large enough indigenous working age population, perhaps because to many fit and able of working age choose to opt out of any work or certain types of work, for a period or entirely, or do not live were the work is, what should the govt do, shrink the economy or seek migrant workers to fill vacancies, or perhaps the govt should reintroduce labour controls, instruct people as to what work they do…
October 4, 2022
Re “If you want better public services” if you made the tax & benefits systems radically simpler, and therefore much cheaper to administer, then you could massively reduce the spend by the state on admin of taxes & benefits, strip lots of jobs out of the public sector that create nothing of use to society. And with the savings you could buy more capacity to improve public services that actually deliver something useful to the voters.
September 27, 2022
Very encouraging. Thank you.
September 27, 2022
‘Asia overnight it was $1.03, when I checked my TV in the morning it was $1.08’
Indeed it was Sir John, and yes the market had rallied, but what was Ā£:$ rate Friday last (23rd) at 9am?!
Our hosts blames the markets for doing what the markets always do, as if he was surprised!
For pity sake, why didn’t some senior Tory PM with the ear of Truss or Kwarteng remember Black Wednesday (30 years ago, almost to the week) and say; ‘hang on, not so hasty, not so rash, if you do the markets will go very short on us and the GBP will tank’…
September 28, 2022
Well according to some in the press this morning, Truss or Kwarteng were warned about short markets but chose to ignore such advice…
Related but a later interview from our host, on R4 this morning, he suggests everyone should wait until “the full policy is announced”, well best Kwarteng gets on and announces it then (I’m sure the Speaker and opposition parties will understand it being done outside of Parliament a sitting given the deteriorating situation), after all Kwarteng must surely have it all worked out and at least a draft speech written, the markets and lenders won’t wait 6 weeks, nor will others, such as the IMF. My suspicion though is nothing more has even been decided yet, Truss or Kwarteng just wanted to steal a thunder on Labour, days before Labour held their conference, but all they actually did was hand Starmer the golden egg.
September 28, 2022
Why has the Euro and other currencies also fallen recently against the Dollar?
The Euro is at a twenty year low versus the dollar.
And looking at currency market movements over a few hours doesn’t give a good view.
September 28, 2022
@Peter2, “Why has the Euro and other currencies also fallen”
Because the GBP tanked during, or immediately following, Kwarteng’s speech, taking other currencies with it?
So what spooled the markets P2, if it wasn’t the fiscal events here in the UK last Friday, might I ask which other event(s) did. Surely Ukraine & energy costs have been priced in for months, surely not a delayed reaction to the shutting down of Nord Stream 1 back in August (and the reported damage has happened since); did the ECB, DAX or CAC make an announcement, perhaps someone was hedging on Sundays Italian election results; or did the US Fed make an announcement overnight before their markets opened; perhaps the Japanese govt or Central bank made a announcement after their markets closed…
“And looking at currency market movements over a few hours doesnāt give a good view.”
Indeed, and some of us remember the time when the Ā£:$ ratio was above $1.50, if not $2.00. š
September 29, 2022
Trends over the last five years show a different picture.
In percentage terms the Euro has fallen more than the Pound
And both the Euro (and a number of other currencies) and the Pound have struggled recently against a strong Dollar.
September 29, 2022
@P2; The issue is not about past “Trends”, nor percentages, it’s about what happened last Friday and since. You’re also overly obsessed with the EUR, all currency’s moved last Friday, vast areas of the FX boards went red, doing so during and immediately following the UK Chancellors mini budget, and yet you refuse to acknowledge that fact.
“And both the Euro (and a number of other currencies) and the Pound have struggled recently against a strong Dollar.”
Indeed, so even more cause for the UK govt not to do anything that will spook the markets!
September 29, 2022
A week in currency markets is a very small time frame.
My point is we have a volatile market.
Many currencies have fallen recently against a strong Dollar.
You feel its just the mini budget.
It had an effect but other things are causing the current situation as well.
And the Pound is now back to 1.09 from 1.03 which is the opposite reaction that some commentators predicted just a few days ago.
Some said below parity
September 29, 2022
@P2; More red herrings from you. Not weeks, not days, not even 24hrs, the issue at hand happened over over a mater of hours. I’m open to SENSIBLE fact based suggestion as to why it wasn’t just the mini budget here in the UK.. As for Ā£:$, is the rate back to were it was this time last Thursday as of UK FX markets close, yes or no?
September 27, 2022
Amen! Time British people understood that giving our jobs away also gives our comforts away, our solvency away, our country away.
Time to start dropping taxes, lifting thresholds and index linking. Then see what the State income is and cut their cloth accordingly.
If this crisis brings reality home to the dreamers – worth every shiver.
September 28, 2022
Time to ‘take back control’.. oops!.. I thought we had already done that
September 27, 2022
All very well said. Just wish it had a wider audience.
September 27, 2022
The DT reports that the IMF has said:
āGiven elevated inflation pressures in many countries, including the UK, we do not recommend large and untargeted fiscal packages at this juncture, as it is important that fiscal policy does not work at cross purposes to monetary policy.ā
Iād be interested to hear from our host as to his opinion about whether or not fiscal and monetary policies are working at cross purposes in this country.
September 27, 2022
There are two different aims. Decrease taxes to attract people to work and earn more, grow the economy. Increase interest rates to stabilise the exchange rate and enable those earners and their businesses to buy stuff from overseas in a stable price regime. The two policies seem completely consistent to me.
September 28, 2022
@SJS; ” Decrease taxes to attract people to work and earn more”
So where were those tax cuts, oh yes, a 1p cut in the base rate, come next April, and a NI cut from this November, not much for the average person (who actually creates the wealth) to get their teeth into was there. Most independent analyses show the average person will still be worse off than they were before the energy crisis hit.
“enable those earners and their businesses to buy stuff from overseas in a stable price regime”
So much for growing the economy then, just yet more ‘Warehouse UK’, but at least the construction industry might have some work building industrial sheds instead of houses.
The two policies seem completely consistent to me.
Indeed, consistently bonkers, given it has been proven a larger cut in the base rate, a rise in the starting rate, along with a cut in VAT (to get people spending) would be far more effective in achieving the goals you suggest.
September 28, 2022
A few hundred pounds a year isn’t the kind of thing to sneer about Jerry.
And a good indication of the direction of travel.
Would you prefer higher tax?
September 29, 2022
@P2; “A few hundred pounds a year isnāt the kind of thing to sneer about Jerry.”
Actually you’ll find it’s actually about Ā£150 pa saving for those just eligible to pay tax, and not applicable until April next. But nor is Ā£55k per year either, now your 45% tax band has been cut back to 40%. Which family though will still be having to choose between heating and eating this winter, even with the universal energy support scheme that even those now saving Ā£55k on tax also get?
September 29, 2022
Still sneering then Jerry.
One minute you say the tax changes in the mini budget were so huge that the reaction caused a crisis next you say the changes are minimal.
Can’t be both.
September 29, 2022
And don’t forget the Ā£400 winter payment for the next 6 months and the energy cap worth up to Ā£1000
It is worth overall, as I said several hundred pounds per family.
September 29, 2022
@P2; “And donāt forget the Ā£400 winter payment”
Oh stop trolling, you didn’t even have the decency to actually reading what I said, otherwise what exactly do you not understand in the following;
“…Which family though will still be having to choose between heating and eating this winter, even with the universal energy support scheme that even those now saving Ā£55k on tax also get”
The only person “sneering” is you P2, no doubt you’ll be asking why people can’t eat cake next….
September 27, 2022
Watched, nodding in agreement throughout, enjoyed.
The Government needs more cogent advocacy in its favour like this you provide. The prospects for the 45 per cent. tax rate cut to 40 per cent. actually yielding more tax revenue has not cut through to public consciousness, for example.
September 28, 2022
It will produce more tax revenue in the medium to long term even 40% is still too high for the top rate. 30% would be more sensible in the UK. More jobs, more growth and a much larger tax base would result too. Many countries have top rates of only 20% or lower and some have a tax caps of circa Ā£200k or so once you have payed that you have no more to pay. Why should you they will only waste it on idiotic things like the lockdown, net zero, duff degree, vaccines that did net harmā¦? You are not likely to be getting much back from the government especially is you use private medicine & private schools then what is this Ā£200k paying for? People will invest and use the money far more beneficially that governments will.
September 28, 2022
I checked and the following 30 countries indeed have their top tax rates at 20% or below:
Take your pick: Afghanistan, Belarus, Cambodia, Fiji, Guatemala, Guernsey, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iraq, I of Man, Jersey, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, North Korea, Macau, Maldives, Marshall I, Mauritius, Monaco (0%), Mongolia, N.Macedonia, Palestine, Paraguay, Pitcairn Island (0%), Sark (0%), Saudi Arabia (0%), Syria, Ukraine, UAE (0%), Yemen.
September 28, 2022
Good for them heffy.
Low tax small State is what we need.
To improve standards of living for all.
Obviously you agree.
September 28, 2022
According to HMRC, there are 27.2 m basic rate tax payers, there were 5.5 m higher 40% rate and 0.630 m additional 45% rate tax payers. Also from HMRC figures these 630,000 people were contributing Ā£90 bn, ie Ā£143k pp. to the total tax take. From the Chancellorās recent announcement and assuming nothing else changes these people would now only contribute Ā£80 bn, ie Ā£127k pp moving from 45 to 40%.
The Chancellorās assumption is that each of them will now provide more than Ā£15.8k in other taxes from their new investments and activities to get back to the previous Ā£90 bn.
It will be interesting to see whether this actually happens, what the additional tax take will be, whether it even surpasses the previous number as is commonly advertised and over which timescale.
September 28, 2022
Add NI to that top rate you are over 50%
My opinion, and for once allow me to have an opinion heffy, is that any country that takes over 50% of a citizen’s earnings is guilty of theft.
September 28, 2022
I went to the bank as I could not believe that I had actually had my wages paid in ! I checked on savings , interest rates and in large print all over the electronic activity were the words” Not tax exempt” .Come on we are not this stupid.
September 28, 2022
There seems to be a lot of angst about a tax cut due in six months. The pound was already tanking along with the euro against the dollar, but you wouldn’t think it to listen to the press.
Kwarteng has only immediately put a rise into the starting rate before paying 12% down from 13.25% national insurance. Yet these were the headlines in March 2022 “6 Mar 2022 ā Both Tory and Labour MPs believe Sunak can still be persuaded to ditch the 1.25 percentage point rise ā announced last September to fund the NHS” Guardian.
I’d like to read from one interview in the press what Truss and Kwarteng’s expectation is from the 5% decrease in tax at the top end of the earning scale, what are the targets they’re hoping to achieve by it, a short-term financial fill up to the tax pot as people bring forward earnings? But won’t that just depress earnings and taxes for the rest of this year?
The 19p tax rate was just brought forward a year, so why the hyperbole? He’s trying to kick start the economy and stop it going into recession. Everyone, and I mean everyone, was against Osborne’s Austerity measures. We’ve had low growth because the blimin Country was shut down by covid!!! Hello did everyone forget, Labour wanted it shut down longer and harder.
“Torsten Bell, the chief executive of the Resolution Foundation think tank, said those earning Ā£1m annually will get a Ā£55,000 tax cut next year.”
How many people earn Ā£1m annually in the UK? Who are they? Do they want the tax cut or not, Gary Neville says NO let’s have a charity provision so they can immediately set it sidewards for the government to spend. Apparently, one KC in Scotland has threatened to move to England if Scotland doesn’t match, so there are some honest people in this Country. Doctors are threatening to quit early because of the cap on pensions, yet no-one considers them selfish or greedy and they’re amongst the wealthiest in our Country and they still want to optimise their tax bills so they can earn the money and don’t have to set it aside in their pension now.
Reply Anyone who thinks they should pay more tax can send a gift to HMRC. There is a website on gov.uk to do so.