Consumer confidence remains stuck at the ultra low level of minus 47 on the Gfk index. Retail sales fell again in September. The public sector borrowing figure came in at a hefty Ā£20 bn for September, Ā£5.2bn more than the OBR forecast. All this is proof of a weakening economy. So why do the Bank and some in the Treasury think we need to slow it down more? Can’t they see that will increase the borrowing we need to do, as slowdown reduces tax revenue growthĀ and increases benefits expenditure.
In the previous two years I had to disagree with the OBR stating they had greatly exaggerated the borrowing needed, as it turned out they had. This year I said I thought their forecast was too low. In the six months to September state net debt has risen by Ā£44.7bn more than the OBR forecast. It reinforces my general point that their forecasting model does not seem to pick up the sensitivity of borrowing to the rate of growth in the economy. Speed it up as last year and revenues surge cutting borrowing needed. Slow the economy down as this year and the reverse happens. It was also clear there had to be policy change to spend more to offset the energy package as has happened.
Given the wonky way they account for interest charges there willĀ be a big windfall decline in interest costs as soon as inflation comes down. Actual interest being paid as cash payments remains low and very affordable. There could be something like a Ā£30bn fall in their stated interest part of total spending going forward from next year.
Meanwhile the mainstream media send out the misleading narrative that a few tax cuts-not the huge spending package on energy- sank the bond market. They refuse to talk about The Bank selling bonds and deliberately driving rates higher. They ignore the bond sell offs in the USA and Europe. US mortgages are over 6% now. The Treasury and Bank establishment have lots of little helpers.
October 22, 2022
Bailey’s wasn’t ‘out to lunch’ when the bond market caved in. This individual doesn’t suffer the consequences of his actions but democracy and freedom take a battering each time people like him climb into bed with others who we have suspicions about try to usurp our system with their destructive games
It’s unfortunate that not one Tory MP will use Parliamentary Privilege to condemn and expose this abuse of our democracy.
The separation of powers that scum Labour have destroyed will probably lead to a political entity so powerful that it is beyond all reform including the financial aspect (BOE, FSA etc)
1997 is a year that the British people voted to destroy their own nation
October 22, 2022
Mark Carney and Andrew Bailey have both been absolutely appalling. Perhaps Bailey wants to get all interest rates up to the 39.9% personal overdraft rate that the FCA moronically inflicted on everyone (regardless of credit worthiness) while one Andrew Bailey was in charge of the outfit. Such a person is unfit to run any bank.
Sunak is the main cause of the current UK economic problems. His absurd extended lockdown & the financing of this, his large currency debasing, the vast manifesto ratting tax, NI increases and allowance freezing… Truss/Kwasi “budget” was merely the final straw. We do not want this backstabbing man at number 10. Boris is the best and probably only chance of avoiding Starmer/SNP.
October 22, 2022
If Johnson is the best bet I despair for this country.
October 22, 2022
Best bet for keeping Starmer/Sturgeon out of power.
October 22, 2022
Sack Hunt and get rid of remainers from the party would be a start to help public confidence. Get rid of OBR and ONS, return powers to Treasury away from BOE scrap quangos to the bear bone. Change rules for regulators if they are required, scrap Mayās snooper charter and any legislation she imposed, Scrap UN Migration pact, scrap Paris Agreement, scrap Climate Change Act, scrap ECHR even if that means scrapping EU subjugation agreement, scrap N.Ireland protocol. When this is done the public might start to believe your party is worth listening to. Until then whoever becomes leader is a waste of our time and money.
Up until now You, JR, and your colleagues have condoned the rotten actions of your leaders. Start putting your words into action. It strikes me you write sensible suggestions day after day which are totally ignored by your socialist party.
What is clear to me is that serious commentators over the last few days have come to speak out about how similar your party is to Labour and is definitely not conservative.
October 22, 2022
Very True
October 22, 2022
JR, if Bailey has acted against the national interest for his own political ends he needs to be sacked and investigated for misconduct in public office, as treason does not exist.
What are you and your colleagues doing about it if you have suspicions?
October 22, 2022
Dear Mickey–I just wish the wretched BBC would stop referring at every opportunity to Boris’s “scandals”. Maybe “peccadilloes” would be a more accurate term, about which the public could care less than nothing. The BBC should put some effort in to proclaming the enorous decisons he got right and under enormous pressure. His being forced out over utter trivia is a main rason we are where we are. As for the Privileges Committee, or whatever it is called, a pox on them–a langaroo court of biased individuals if ever there were one.
October 22, 2022
There’s the pickle; if Bunter Boris is PM, who’s the chancellor (presumably not Sunak), and we don’t want another ‘establishment’ type running the treasury, doing the bidding of the IMF/WEF, because Bunter has no understanding of money so he leaves it to the person in No. 11.
If Sunak is PM , then we know we’re heading back into the EU.
October 22, 2022
Johnsonās biggest mistake was getting rid of Cummings. Cummings kept him and his missus on the straight and narrow.
October 22, 2022
What on earth is Ms Mordaunt putting her hat in the ring for?
Shameless opportunism (especially after the disaster of Ms Truss) – as opposed to Patriotism – putting the interests of the country (and party) ahead of her her own.
She’s like one of the candidates on the BBC’s Apprentice. And relatively talentless as a politician and leader. I bet even my local bank manager would do a better job than her.
This is NOT anything personal. But the Tories have to learn a lesson. And that is you have to deserve to hold positions of power by having done something to prove yourself in the past:
1) Degree from top university preferable
2) But more essential, and ideally, experience of having set up your own company, involving a business plan, with 50 to 100 employees at least, a company with high skills, and even exports abroad. Something like that.
Ms Mordaunt comes nothing close to number 2 (I don’t know about her university background – she’s doesn’t come across as the brightest spark nor a deep, strategical political thinker of leader.
October 22, 2022
Is there any possible PM, do you think, who would command the full support of Conservative MPs? If not, then …
October 22, 2022
According to the DT (yes, I know) one of her 6 priorities is to make more use of Chequers and Chevening for policy discussions.
Seriously? ….. The country’s going down the tubes and one of her priorities for Government is holding discussions in a country house. Give me strength.
October 22, 2022
Donna,
Dylan has to piss somewhere and chew on antique furniture!
October 22, 2022
I want Boris back. But he will be relentlessly hounded as he was before. The BBC, all the anti British, anti Brexit quangos, the remainers wonāt stop. Worse still the backstabbers are still there. Worse than that the backstabber general is now going for the leadership. Of course that is with the backing of the very people who brought about Borisās downfall. They are all still there. Donāt forget outside of the EU we must not be allowed to thrive it is a shame that some of those wishing that are our own MPs.
October 22, 2022
Vote Boris get Carrie,
Vote Rishi get Globalist.
Surely it isn’t beyond the wit of our lawmakers to find one amongst them who the membership can vote for, not against?
October 23, 2022
In a perfect well, I agree.
In an imperfect world, only Boris or Sunak can keep Labour out.
There is no-one else.
October 22, 2022
He did not need much hounding he was disastrous of his own poor decision making and lying at every turn.
October 22, 2022
In so far as there was any opposition to lock-down within the govt it came from sunak. Sunak pushed Boris to cut the 3rd lock-down.
October 22, 2022
LifeLogic: “Mark Carney and Andrew Bailey have both been absolutely appalling. ”
Mark Carney is the Canadian who is also a member of the World Economic Forum.
Canada seems to have taken on the role of preminent totalitarian state, what with vilifying legitimate dessent and seizing citizen’s assets, freezing their bank accounts because the disagree with the Canadian government of Justine Trudeau. Carney is Canadian.
Here he is advocating for the ‘build back better’ agenda [ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/06/building-real-markets-for-the-good-of-the-people/ ]
Talking about building ‘real markets for the good of the people’! The man is an overpaid fool, markets are made up of ‘the people’, so what he says is rubbish. Why he was put in as Governor of the BoE is anyone’s guess, but then he was appointed by the useless George Osborne, the latter who seems to have thankfully sunk into well deserved and no doubt well padded oblivion.
What Carney nor Clause Schwab seem to appreciate, is that it’s easy to destroy a thing, but building from nothing takes intelligence, not just ‘connections’.
October 22, 2022
I see that Moody’s rate the UK’s outlook as “Negative”
It was AAA under Labour, and as a member of the European Union.
October 22, 2022
One cannot help wondering if they addressed all the high profile areas of waste which many visitors to this site highlight on a daily basis how much that would impact on the figures?
Yes they would be contentious and ministers would have to show their true colours and worth in implementing them but if it is taxpayers or borrowed money saved it is taxpayers, borrowed money not needed to be raised.
October 22, 2022
The thing is, there is one area of government spending (overseas Aid) that, not only would be greeted by the electorate which much approval by its removal, but the saving would enable the government to remove a an area of tax (ENIC) to boot. Giving business a small boost. Not only that, such a boost would either be used as investment or profits (which are also taxed) leading to a win-win situation.
And I am sure there are many other areas of government spending that can have much the same effect ?
October 22, 2022
Mark B
The state we are in they could declare a National Emergency.
Then they have a completely new ball game and I believe the electorate would back them. They (Parliament) have got to be seen to being proactive across the whole nation.
October 22, 2022
It IS a National Emergency for millions and growing by the day.
October 22, 2022
There are vast areas of government expenditure that could usefully be cut. HS2, most degrees, net zero, EV and renewable subsidies, the Ā£5+ million pension for Truss’s few days “work”, diversity officers, woke lunacy, 95% of red tape… much of what the state does actually does positive harm. Just cut it at least by half & now.
I see that extending the ULEZ zone in London has extorted Ā£100 million more for the appalling Mayor Khan to waste. It of course costs people and industry much more than this. Many have had to buy new vehicles and scrap perfectly serviceable older vehicles. This of course reduces their profits and thus lower corporation tax take, it gives them less to invest in productivity and expansion (and far less incentive to do so). Scrapping old vehicles to replace with new EV ones also hugely increases CO2 emissions (should this, quite wrongly, concern you). This as a new EV and battery manufacture needs to do about 80,000 miles charged on very low carbon electricity (we do not have spare anyway) to cover just the fossil fuel CO2 emitted just to mine, manufacture and deliver the vehicle.
October 22, 2022
ULEZ actually stops people going into the area in the course of WORK – we should realise – no KHAN should – that he’s damaged productivity for umpteen thousands every day in the South East.
October 22, 2022
Khan called his extension of ULEZ a success because it cut the number of older diesel cars. This was after TFL and Imperial College civil engineering depth surveyed the air quality before and afterwards and found that it either didn’t make any difference or because slightly worse. Could there be a better example of Khan thinking?
October 22, 2022
depth. and became. My phone changes words after i have checked the script.
October 22, 2022
According to Volvo last year, the carbon ‘cost’ of manufacturing an ICE vehicle vs an EV nets out at about 52k miles in the UK. I like to look after my cars and don’t do high mileage and much of it (80%) is not local. So (in theory) I can drive for the next 10 years without going into debit on my carbon footprint. Of course my running costs may be higher but that is mainly a function of fuel and road taxes.
So if you want to save the planet – start being honest about the way you account for emmissions please.
PS CEBR report on the true cost of banning ICE cars from 2030 makes interesting reading. I couldn’t follow most of it (and it’s already being disputed of course) but it was at least a published attempt to place a cost on this policy – and something that the government has not done as far as I’m aware. There must be a pragmatic path to “saving the planet” whilst not bankrupting the nation but Net Zero isn’t it.
October 22, 2022
Lifelogic
No cost or figures shown of the damage done to the businesses in the ULEZ area, where Customers no longer visit due to cost.
Fortunately no members of our family now live in the recently expanded London ULEZ area, or the newer “proposed” even more extended area.
Thus no longer absolutely need to travel London at all.
For the occasional theatre trip we go with an organised group (coach travel included)
Used to enjoy visits to London a few decades ago, no longer, too expensive to get there, and it”s a scruffy, expensive and overcrowded place now.
October 22, 2022
Khan is in South America preaching about climate change!! Get rid of mayors they are an extra layer of u necessary expensive Bureaucratic nonsense feeding their own selfish ends.
Mayors were rejected by the public and forced on us by the socialist Tory party.
October 22, 2022
Unfortunately with all that is happening Mr plebgate stood up in the house and demanded the the poorest in the world would not be affected (foreign aid). It is difficult to understand why we would want to give away billions that we donāt have. I can think of two
1. We need to bribe despot counties to stop them getting it from a communist country
2. There is so much money involved with so many fingers in the pie within government that a bigger scandal is yet to hit the media.
Also on another note, a massive gold plated PMs pension for Liz is a little hard to take sitting here hoping the next PM will allow the triple lock to increase what is the worst pension in Europe. She got hers for 44 days work. I have my pathetic amount for 44 years work.
Still we are all in it together. That makes me feel warm inside. Not.
October 22, 2022
Indeed and this Ā£114k pa for life is on top of all the other pensions and MPs salary she will get. The Ā£114k PA is actually an allowance so I assume this is also tax free!
October 22, 2022
supposedly covered by expense receipts. You know the sort of thing:
a) Ā£55k purchasing Tesla in order to attend Westminster with regard to being ‘green’.
b) Ā£40k – flights to USA, Maldives, Necker to seek advice on parliamentary matters.
c) Ā£20k – visits to be updated on former Trade and Environment matters.
October 22, 2022
Ms Truss would do her own, and the Party’s, reputation quite a lot of good if she publicly refused to take both the golden handshake and the extra pension.
October 22, 2022
Seems rather unlikely!
October 22, 2022
The Ā£114K per annum is not a pension it is for costs for staff, speaking and representation as an ex-PM.
I personally hope she goes an many tours to talk about how her 44 days were undermined by Rishi Sunak’s supporters, the Bank of England and the media.
Her ideas would have been interesting to see played out over a period.
October 22, 2022
Firstly, many of the electorate would not welcome a complete removal of the foreign aid budget. In fact, many of us are very unhappy about the failure to keep to the manifesto commitment of 0.7%
Secondly, your sums don’t add up. The entire foreign aid budget is around Ā£10 billion. Just the 1.25% change in ENIC was projected to raise around an additional Ā£9 billion, and the total raised by ENIC is way more than that. The idea that the entire revenue stream currently provided by ENIC could be replaced by the foreign aid budget is the sort of thinking of recent mini-budgets/fiscal events.
You are Kwasi Kwarteng and I claim my Ā£5.
October 22, 2022
I think your ‘Lobby Lud’ reference will be completely lost on most people Peter, although I can remember challenging complete strangers on holiday at the Seaside (that dates me fairly well)
With regards to Foreign Aid, I’d equip part of our armed forces as ‘International Rescue’ units that could provide populations in need, rapid relief on the ground. They could of course be ‘re-missioned’ in wartime. It would give our military a useful peacetime role and help keep us prepared for more turbulent times. It might even gain us some new friends over time.
I really don’t see any point in bankrolling programmes in countries that have space programmes or in funding woke agendas in parts of rural Africa. Like so much in government, it isn’t just the money being spent, it’s equally about how effectively it is spent (both at home and abroad).
October 22, 2022
I certainly support spending it effectively and not just giving it away as cash.
October 22, 2022
There are charities for the likes of you to donate to Peter.
I object to my taxes being handed out to foreign countries. It is bad enough that I suffer feudal charges and tithes on my income as a PAYE serf but at the very least those should be spent on this country.
October 22, 2022
I am sure we can all find things that we object to our taxes being spent on. Unfortunately, we have to live with that as a consequence of being part of a society.
October 22, 2022
Peter
Where do you get your information from which supports your statement that most of the electorate would be happy to see our wealth transferred to countries with nuclear weapons, space programs and much more whilst, they struggle between heating and eating ?
I gave no figures as both Overseas Aid and ENIC are variables. The point is, we are borrowing money to give away when we shouldn’t.
October 22, 2022
Correction “. . . we struggle between heating and eating?”
October 22, 2022
You insinuated in your original post that the entire electorate would happily see the end of the foreign aid budget, which is absolutely not true. I didn’t say “most of the electorate”, I said “many”. Your view on the foreign aid budget is in no way universal.
The Foreign Aid budget and ENIC figures both exist in the public domain if you make a little effort to search. It is therefore very easy to prove that cutting one can’t replace the other.
October 22, 2022
Just to put a figure on it, a recent Development Compass survey showed 53% of the UK public as supportive of foreign aid.
October 22, 2022
Agree +
October 22, 2022
Good morning.
As I have said before, the BoEās job is to control inflation and, the best means to do that is to create a recession. Id the Chancellor had full control then the government can set the agenda. ie Growth.
Whilst I do not disagree with this statement, I feel that the government did not do itself any favours. It failed to prepare through careful leaks and explain once the mini-budget / autumn statement the various tax implications.
Your party Sir John has just condemned itself to opposition and is clearly in damage limitation mode, hence why Alexander Johnson is being prepared to be re-crowned as PM. The question is, at what price is the party, its MPs and the country prepared to pay ?
October 22, 2022
Not me. I stopped voting Tory when the two selfish posh boys turned up. The record shows they were not in politics for the countryās good or that of the people but themselves. Their biggest legacy is not gay marriage as Cameron would have it but the destruction of the Tory party by central selection of candidates and giving their members the choice of two liblab pro EU candidates. Associations should choose their candidate- they might find some Tories.
It defies logic why remainers who worked and voted against democracy are still on the Tory benches, what did they think they would change!
October 22, 2022
It would seem that way.
October 22, 2022
Incompetence, or deliberate damage to the UK? I discard incompetence, because surely someone so incompetent would not remain in their job for very long, UNLESS they were useful in other ways, ie. can be manipulated into damaging the UK for the benefit of … who or what??? Not the UK or its people, obviously!
October 22, 2022
That’s the same conclusion I have come to, Shirley.
October 22, 2022
+1
I’m thinking that too now and such thought is now being disseminated by credible journalists such as Peter Oborne.
One policy. Mass immigration.
On that alone the Conservatives should be disbanded.
Toxic.
October 22, 2022
The OBR describes itself as being created to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UKās public finances, tantamount to a watchdog.
Independent means: not subject to anotherās authority
Authoritative means: able to be trusted as being accurate or true
Any maverick bunch can provide an analysis. Anyone gullible can trust it.
The OBR watchdog is worse than worthless.
Why pay them to breed their rabid litter endangering our economy?
They need more than muzzling.
October 22, 2022
If the government hadn’t wasted tax payer’s money they wouldn’t have to borrow so much. Waste such as test and trace, covid fraud and poor purchase of NHS PPE items that sat in warehouses that were never going to used.
Interest rates rises to date have had little effect on inflation, inflation still going up. Tackle corporate greed,the engery costs and the supply side will bring it down.
October 22, 2022
Stephen, who was telling the government they needed all this extra PPE? Do you believe Matt Hancock sat there and just thought you know what Iāll buy a load of PPE that no-one in the NHS or Care Homes demanded?
Do you not remember the papers day after day, the news reports of PPEād up hospital staff accusing the government of trying to kill them because they were having to cut up bin bags to make aprons because I do. The NHS supply chain network is separate from government, Hunt decided after consulting the NHS heads how much PPE they required to store for pandemics and emergency use. Yet he is supposed to be such a good economist now. I agree with JRs tweets this morning. Will Hunt get challenged over it – No.
October 22, 2022
I see our national debt is now over the EU average, so the Tories have thrown away their last bit of their claim to be able to manage the economy better since Brexit. We are in the mess we’re in today because for years the wrong policies have been followed: the wrong economic policies, the wrong energy policy, the wrong public health policy, the wrong foreign policy. Shuffling the pack and bringing in new political figures (or even bringing one of the old ones back!) isn’t going to cut it. We need policies that encourage small businesses back into the market place, bringing grass-roots economic growth, and not policies that require the state to keep paying for the consequences of government ideology.
October 22, 2022
R.Grange – in 2012 a new mortgage system was created by Cameron & Osborne, it was called the Funding for Lending Scheme FLS. It provided funds at cheaper rates than those prevailing in the then current market. This economic decision it seems has put us in hoc and under the control of the āinstitutionsā.
There arenāt going to be many under 40ās who disagree with 2-3% mortgage rates, even those in rentals benefitted from cheaper rents by buy-to-letāers . A lot of pensioners though who are pretty depressed about the 0.25%-1% on their savings, when the mortgage system changed from building societies to this new saviour.
But who is this ānew saviourā to make loans of 2% the banks must be able to get the money for 0.5-1%. If mortgages go up to 5% do savers then get 4%?
October 22, 2022
The Treasury and Bank establishment have lots of little helpers.
This is of course another way of giving somebody else the blame and easy to blame others.
WIth only 14% of conservative voters supporting the party,it might be time to stop the Johnson circus and make sure we have a general election.
October 22, 2022
Bill, what do you think Starmer and Ang Rayner will do? What can they do?
If they push taxes up to the amount required to pay all their union mates wage claims and work benefits, little hidden extras here and there, then the 60% of people in small businesses and all the self-employed will be what left to drown? Thats what the unions want, they donāt get any money from them so if they sink they are happier because in their minds the big companies will have to hire more union payers or crash when their goods are too expensive to manufacture in the UK.
If their proposed national living wage goes up immediately from Ā£9.50 to Ā£15.00 ph (which is a starting salary of a qualified nurse at 21 years of age) the nurse is going to want Ā£30.00 ph, if the nurse gets that what will the qualified doctor after six years going to want? How much will pensioners and the unemployed need to keep up equality 60% of the median? How much will a loaf of bread cost then? Or a McDonalds? What happens to our exports then?
October 22, 2022
unintended consequence that never get considered.
October 22, 2022
Tracy
These are all unproven assumptions which you can’t prove.
The fiscal policies of 12 years of Conservative government has been a real disaster at least that is a proven fact.
And we can’t continue as Britaly and the Johnson illegal circus.
October 22, 2022
Check inflation, debt, growth and employment in the Eurozone eubilly.
Not quite the promised land.
When the EU want a new leader in a member nation they just go an appoint someone they like.
October 22, 2022
Le
Peter 2,
Why, don’t you stick to the conversation at hand.
So what happened st the recent elections in Sweden and Italy, they chose new leaders after normal elections. So you do write a lot of false and incorrect information
We are not surprised
October 23, 2022
Peter 2
No source no concrete information and as usual no answer of posed questions, which is why yours are never answered
October 24, 2022
Oh yes? As far as I know the Dutch voted for Rutte, the Germans for Scholz, the French for Macron, the Swedes for Kristersson and the Italians for Meloni. Please explain how the EU āappointed themā.
Do you not think that your hatred of all things EU (and your overall political ignorance) makes you ridiculous Peter?
But keep on the good work, your āwittyā comments are sure to provide a good laugh to a number of us in these dismal times.
October 22, 2022
I asked what you thought theyād do Bill?
I gave you my concerns I thought youād have a list of reassurances?
Do you think theyād immediately tie us in to the EEA, single market, customs union?
October 24, 2022
a-tracy, youāre going into the red herringsā pond. The problem right now is not what Labour is doing (it has been out of power for 12 years) but what the Conservative party and its new leader (whoever that might be) will do in the coming two years.
Many things (āevents, my dear, eventsā H. Macmillan) could happen that might change the situation and modify the prospects of the UK parties in the next GE. It is a mugās game (possibly encouraged by some in the MSM) to pretend that Labour would want to ātie us immediatelyā in some continental European net(s).
What about living in the here and now?
October 24, 2022
Hefner, a) I was asking Bill because he was calling for a general election, I want to know what Bill as the resident EUphile thinks a general election will achieve if Labour took over, possibly from the indications Starmer has given of his preferences in the past,
and
b) I live in the here and now, there is no need to call a general election perhaps you should get with it.
October 23, 2022
You said the policies of the last 12 years have been a disaster eubilly.
My comment was about the similar economic figures in Europe and USA.
And how the EU has pushed it’s own candidates on some member states.
All correct
All relevant.
You need to open your pro EU eyes.
October 23, 2022
Peter 2
Read my answer again and try once more and write something relevant
October 23, 2022
And you have the nerve to criticise others for not listening eubilly.
Not a single argument to the points I gave.
Run away run away.
Hilarious
October 24, 2022
āThe EU has pushed its own candidates on some member statesā. Go ahead, make my day. Give us some precise informed referenced examples of what you are hinting at. Given you talk of āsome member statesā, I guess you must have multiple proofs.
And do not run away, please.
October 22, 2022
Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. There is no consumer confidence because this government is putting half the nation into abject poverty with its refusal to properly tax excess profits of the oil companies.
October 22, 2022
The UK can’t tax Saudi sovereign wealth.
October 22, 2022
Richard – this is a question for Hunt isnāt it. Why not just take what seems like the easy option of a big hit on a profitable company?
I read that most of their profit isnāt made in the UK and we canāt tax it anyway?
What would the repercussions be Richard? Of what seems on the face of it an easy hit on a company that doesnāt get a vote? It canāt be that simple or theyād do it.
October 22, 2022
Did you suggest subsidising their losses a year or two ago?
October 22, 2022
Richard M.
If you were told that your business was going to be cut to near zero by Net Zero wouldn’t you be making hay while you could ?
No.
These tax cuts weren’t cuts at all but a redress of the extra VAT that Government was raking in on the back of double digit inflation.
Anyway. The real trigger for this. Covid and particularly lockdown.
Rampant inflation and high was an obvious consequence of all that ‘free’ time off people had but I still don’t know how that came to amount to the magnitude of a world war debt seeing as their was no actual war and it only went on for two years and not five.
October 22, 2022
*high tax*
October 22, 2022
Richard M
Stop blaming the oil companies, remember when they couldnāt give the stuff away, there was no suggestion that they should be bailed out, they have massive exploration costs and many pension funds invest in them and they already pay 40% tax.
Pretty much every product involves the use of oil in its production including many medications
October 22, 2022
Kier Starmer talks about stability under a Labour government (more likely a Labour/SNP government). Sure Kier, one of the main reasons money markets are demanding higher interest on sterling gilts is the very real threat of a Labour Government with its insane policies (of ever larger government, more pay for their state sector union paymasters… Then we have his bonkers “publicly owned clean energy firm”. Great British Energy would provide “British power to the British people and even more of the destructive net zero, expensive intermittent energy lunacy.
October 22, 2022
Labour have never when in power balanced the books, always leaving financial chaos as a legacy of their times in office. Only idiots would bet on giving them another opportunity to repeat history.
October 22, 2022
When did the CONS last balance the books?
October 22, 2022
Lifelogic a council invested in a āclean energy firmā it should be a warning to Starmer, solar panel farm could cost Ā£200m in losses. Doesnāt stop other councils jumping on the same band-wagon a local council still want to spend Ā£63.5 million as part of a green investment even though they know of the losses in another councils in the same sort of green investment! These gambling council heads should risk their own pension funds, then lets see if theyāre so willing to take the bet with some of their own skin in the game.
October 22, 2022
Ed Miliband’s moronic climate charge act (and those who voted for it) are far more responsible for the current energy prices and shortages than Putin is. Coal and coal produced electricity is still very cheap indeed in countries that do not rig energy markets or over tax it. Well under 10p per KWH of electricity yet her some have to pay 40p for it!
The idea that Starmer, Sturgeon, Miliband, Dodds, Raynor, Reeves, Lammy, Streeting, Cooper… with their bonkers socialist, nationalise and big state agenda will reassure the money markets is totally absurd.
October 22, 2022
Coal in bulk can still be bought for under 3p per KWh of heat (before UK taxes and government market rigging) it seems most politicians (and Carrie) want you to freeze and for high energy businesses and their jobs to move overseas. Increasing CO2 not decreasing it anyway (if that quite wrongly bothers you).
October 22, 2022
Exactly LL. Coal is king in India, China, most of Asia and Africa as well as USA and S America. UK buys it in and seems determined, a) that the UK is not energy self sufficient and b) that we must never profit from our invaluable resources. More
little helpers?
October 22, 2022
LL. +100
October 22, 2022
Somebody in parliament needs to have the guts to call out this net zero nonsense. I watched a video the other day that explained that replacing oil and gas with wind and solar would use far more minerals than exist on Earth. Even if the minerals did exist it would take hundreds and in some cases thousands of years to extract them. Watch this video from Dr. Chris Martenson āThis is the BIGGEST Reason the WEF Will Failā itās extremely enlightening and should be watched by all politicians.
October 22, 2022
LL : Agreed :
I would think the markets were completely spooked by the thought of an increasingly likely incoming Labour government attempting to decarbonise our electricity by 2030 (Ed Miliband Labour Conference speech).
Utter lunacy, unless you want to completely destroy the economy and the country by ceasing the use of fossil fuels by 2030 and relying instead on insufficient Chinese supplied low energy density, expensive and intermittent renewable power.
But even more disturbing is that I donāt hear any Conservative MPs or the MSM contesting this nonsense and as a result many are believing it is feasible!
Itās not even desirable as we need more CO2 in the atmosphere not less to grow more food.
Amazingly the National Grid ESO Future Energy Scenario āLeading the Wayā is even planning for us to have negative net CO2 emissions by 2050. Hopefully China and India and other countries will save life on the planet by continuing to burn fossil fuels in sufficient quantities to keep atmospheric CO2 above the 150 ppm needed for plants to survive as it gets used up by marine animals building their shells
October 22, 2022
Agree Richard. I was at Fishbourne Palace in Sussex yesterday where records show water levels were very much more inland than they are now. This was 45AD. I don’t think they had the combustion engine then or did I miss something?
October 23, 2022
It was the fire breathing Welsh Dragons and all those Unicorn methane burps that did it I think!
October 22, 2022
The higher interest has nothing to do with a potential Labour government, this was all done by the Conservative nobody else
October 22, 2022
Actually it was a decision by the independent Bank of England.
Facts eubilly
October 22, 2022
Peter 2
The market rates went up because of unfinanced tax cuts
Peter lack of proper knowledge again
October 23, 2022
They have also gone up in America and in the EU billy
October 23, 2022
Well we are taking about bond rates for 10+ year fixes. With a high chance of the disaster Labour/SNP government within two years. So of course that is a risk for the lenders.
October 22, 2022
‘more likely a Labour/SNP government)’ They won’t need SNP.
October 23, 2022
They probably will need the dire SNP I suspect when things settle down a bit and the Tories recover.
October 22, 2022
The rating agencies have now downgraded the U.K. expressly because of the mini-budget and – as they claim – the failure of the govt to come up with a credible economic plan. Little helpers also perhaps?
Iām afraid it does seem the recommendation to Conservative Party members to vote for Ms Truss wasnāt a very good idea. I hope MPs will think very carefully before making the next choice.
October 22, 2022
It was more a signal from the constituencies that the candidates did not meet what they expect from their MPs and subsequently our PM.
October 22, 2022
It now gone 180 ā Its now a communication from the parliamentary party that the constituencies no longer meets the expectations of their MPs
October 22, 2022
The recent downgrading of the UK by Moody from āstableā to ānegativeā clearly shows Lifelogicās comment about a Labour/SNP Government to be completely bonkers (as if such a coalition would be welcomed by either Labour or the SNP).
But bonkers statements by Lifelogic are a daily serving on this blog. They are for me what makes this blog so entertaining, showing how some unconstrained OF is seeing the āworldā.
October 22, 2022
Not at all it suggests that Moody are also (rightly) very worried about the serious threat of Labour or Labour/SNP/Libdim… in one or two years.
October 22, 2022
I
Lifelogic
Where is this particular source
October 22, 2022
Well said as usual Lifelogic.
October 24, 2022
A less-than-informed person supporting another one: The rating agencies do not react years in advance. Given they get their money from the āmarketā (from fees on bond issuance) they are very unlikely to take decisions so early in advance as events can change the overall market (cf Russian-Ukraine conflict, who would have forecasted it one year, six months, three months in advance?)
October 22, 2022
I would pay no attention to Moody. They got it so wrong with the Fanny Mae crash in the US in 2008.
Consequently, they ended up paying an 864 million dollar penalty to various states affected.
October 26, 2022
Not an argument against my statement, Peter. They indeed got it wrong in 2008. That does not change the point that rating agencies do not rate based on political projections one or two years in advance.
October 22, 2022
The bigger problem was persuading voters to vote Conservative and then giving them a fake candidate.
October 22, 2022
@ Richard1 ” I hope MPs will think very carefully before making the next choice” – ! What is there to think about as between Johnson and the ex-chancellor who was at his side aiding and abetting much of the bad policy? I suppose Johnson has the edge as his quick exit might soon after be forced by the Privileges Committee report and so another chance of getting it right is then presented.
As per normal Sir John did not take my advice and so most regrettably is not standing himself, then as necessary calling upon members to write-in his name on their ballots if MPs denied him a place in the final two.
And now we have Chancellor Hunt aping Chancellor Sunak’s destructive measures. Woe is us.
Reply I did not have 100 MPs or anything like that number to mount a bid.
October 22, 2022
@ Reply – Understood, although my cunning (if perhaps impractical) plan called for bypassing uncooperative MPs and you have to admit you would have offered the country a much better prospect than either Johnson or Sunak will.
October 22, 2022
And the threshold ensured other runners were not given consideration – 3 max.
October 22, 2022
In other words, if you don’t pick a globalist we will make sure the PM fails and is removed from office.
October 22, 2022
Thats also my take
October 22, 2022
“The Treasury and Bank establishment have lots of little helpers.”
Yes, and they deliberately engineered instability in the Markets in order to get rid of Truss because they want their WEF stooge Sunak in No.10. They don’t care that they are destabilising our economy and ruining millions of lives.
The problem, Sir John, is that your Party has had the ability to deal with The Treasury, Bank establishment and their little helpers in the Media for 12 years ….. and has done nothing whatsoever to rein them in.
October 22, 2022
āāā+++
October 22, 2022
But is this true, Donna? Did the Conservative party actually have the ability to deal with them, and what what would ‘dealing with them’ have looked like? Surely it would’ve meant passing legislation taking the agenda in different directions from what the BoE, the Treasury and their international handlers wanted. But by 2015 huge swathes of Tory MPs were ‘Cameron’s cuties’, to quote David Starkey, conformist Toryboys and girls supplied by Central Office casting. The only party leader in recent years who claimed to put the interests of the people of this country before those of the global kleptocracy was Jeremy Corbyn, and we saw what happened to him.
October 22, 2022
Apparently giving us a tax cut by removing the BBC tax is beyond them.
October 22, 2022
‘The Treasury, Bank establishment and their little helpers in the Media for 12 years ā¦.. and has done nothing whatsoever to rein them in.’
For 12 years the PCP has mostly been in lockstep with those miscreants.
October 22, 2022
Donna :
Agreed
October 22, 2022
āInfected blood victims set for Ā£400m in compensationā reported by the BBC today. But this is only some of the victims and only part compensation. So what will the cost of the dangerous and rather/very ineffective Covid vaccine compensations in say say 30 years time? Especially for those coerced into taking them (especially the young who were never even at any risk and had no rational reason at all to be taking on these pointless risks).
Poor Truss was surely taken down by the blob, civil servants, the BoE and the very many dire Tory MPs, she had no chance. Let us hope that back stabber Sunak does not become PM or indeed Chancellor again. He is the main cause of the current economic problems & not Kwasi or Truss.
October 22, 2022
How comes that the MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip was sunning himself in the Dominican Republic at a time the Parliament is sitting? Do MPs not have the constraints of other workers and employees? Was he āworking from homeā via some internet connection from his āpailloteā?
The country wants to know.
October 22, 2022
I don’t give a shit – only you care!
October 22, 2022
Heffy is a very caring person.
October 23, 2022
Peter 2
Stick to the relavent theme
October 23, 2022
Which in your case billy is endless pro EU anti Conservative and anti brexit propaganda
October 26, 2022
MT, Beware of constipation ā¦
October 22, 2022
I wondered that. Then I realised, whenever he actually ever got round to doing something, it always ended as a total fiasco.
October 22, 2022
Computer modelling is NOT used by investment banks because it doesnāt work.
However it has been used to create 3 catastrophic predictions which are projections of the software developers mind.
– Global Warming
– Covid deaths
– Tax and Spend
October 22, 2022
Javelin :
Correct.
October 22, 2022
For Godās sake toriesā¦get your act together.
I do not want a National Unity Government.
I have been watching this slow train crash since 2016ā¦
Surely it is time for all sane shoulders to the pump to save the party?
October 22, 2022
Stop blaming others. Your fault. For umpteen years you have failed to create a true Tory narrative crumbling on almost every traditional value allowing the party to be captured by the woke/wet centre.
It is therefore no surprise that when the first right leaning leader since Thatcher, came into power and made a mistake it was pounced on, amplified etc and we see the result.
You now have the metro elites favourite, rich as Croesus, Sunak as far away from an ordinary voter as humanly possible, Mordaunt believing in everything/anything especially herself, to get elected and the Ill disciplined, lazy Johnson, full of vapid BS, responsible for much of the mess we were in, toxic only months ago,
So zero choice for the traditional Tory voter, certainly not the members who indicated their preference a few weeks ago and like Brexit, they were ignored.
The true statesman is Farage, yes marmite, and hated by the establishment because although denied by your party, he forced Cameronās hand. The question is will he get involved again, because if so, if he can build a bridge with Tice, they will create a formidable presence on your Right and many people will coalesce towards them.
In years to come I think it likely that political historians will be discussing the end of the Tory party as a choice for government or a cohesive opposition.
If I was Starmer I would reach out to your left wing creating a large middle Social Democratic centre that could govern for ever, certainly put his left wing in a box and rely on anno domini to cull the right.
The question is. Will someone mobilise the right quickly enough to stop it happening? Looking at the lack of talent or more importantly political courage, I doubt it.
October 22, 2022
Nig1. I do hope you are right about Farage. It sickens me that the media can’t bring themselves to acknowledge he is very often right about most things and he does the media’s job for them in that he reports on things the mainstream tabloids dont and certainly not the biased BBC.
October 22, 2022
Liz Truss proposed helping British businesses and people to survive the sanctions-producing energy crisis, but had a longterm plan – fracking. She was hounded out of office.
Olaf Schultz proposes helping German businesses and people to survive the sanctions-producing energy crisis with no longterm plan, and he is lauded.
Time these two faced deep state operatives were relieved of their paid positions.
October 22, 2022
And the German’s are digging and using lignite coal like never before.
October 22, 2022
Is it the model that is wrong or is it new unplanned initiatives or discontinued initiatives.
The OBR forecasts of the last two years expected more overreaction to Covid than actually was needed. This year’s forecast did not account for the gas and electricity payments made to benefit claimants and some pensioners in August.
Is it the income side of the forecasts that is out or is it the expenditure side?
A government whose demos expects rapid support whenever “needed” can not be forecast.
October 22, 2022
Would help if we had Chancellors and Prime Ministers who had some real financial knowledge and experience, and could use that knowledge going forward, instead of having to rely upon being fed information by others, on which they do not have a clue is either good or bad.
You must absolutely despair at some of the decisions taken JR.
October 22, 2022
MPs have successfully crushed the PM elected by the common weal. All our institutions are socialist now and hate Tories. The Lab\Lib\SNP lefty coalition will declare a state of emergency when elected and enact draconian laws that will make it impossible to vote any other way then Left.
Hopefully, the Tory Party will split into Liberal and Tory wings.
October 22, 2022
And forecasters in both conservative and labour suggest the best growth and recovery plan is a policy of extreme net-zero, renewables and wind-turbines
October 22, 2022
will this nonsense ever end?
October 22, 2022
glen cullen :
Is this “growth and recovery plan” for the UK or China?
I expect our Chancellor is preparing the orders as I write.
PS : I read that our RAF pilots are training the Chinese airforce.
I’m convinced our whole politicall elite, Civil Service and Institutions have a death wish.
October 22, 2022
British Army uniforms are made in China …on instruction from our government …same same
October 22, 2022
I comment here because your latest submission refuses comment with the usual computer generated crap suggesting anything apart from somebody screwing up.
On BOE, Treasury, OBR inaccuracies I would suggest two possibilities. One they are all unbelievably incompetent or two, they have a totally different agenda and endgame result in mind for the UK. Either way they are a very dangerous combination to have in charge of our economy. As evidence of the latter I would point to the very modest changes to our tax regime as proposed by KK & LT and their very hasty departure orchestrated by these bodies and their globalist socialist wets in Parliament. Either way a sound economy based on growth has been ruled out.
October 22, 2022
agricola :
Agreed.
October 22, 2022
And We the Taxpayer are the ones paying directly and indirectly for inexact predictions and actual figures.
While at the same time the State keeps growing it feels no obligation to cut its cloth accordingly. It is just the Taxpayer that secures the State, its just the Taxpayer that has to cut back.
This is taking money directly from the UK economy, which then increases the squeeze on the ordinary punter. In the meantime the State Grows and provides nothing tangible by way of added services and facilities. The deduction has to be it is Government that due to very personal egos is content to destroy the UK and it People.
October 22, 2022
I left the Church of England in 1989 and have watched its terminal decline ever since then. While the churches stand locked and empty, even on Sundays, the number of diocesan Staff has increased commensurately. And shows little sign of cutting back either.
Which is why I don’t think the Public Sector is going to be cut back either and it will continue borrowing and borrowing. To me, it was very telling that the famous Borisgate photo showed a party in full swing with all the relevant public servants’ faces blurred out. They are not going to cut back, are they.
“Civil Service employment increased in all regions,
except in the North East, the East of England and
Northern Ireland.
The percentage of civil servants based in the South
West has increased by 5.4% since 2019, more than
any other region.
And the number of highly paid civil servants has gone up too. (ONS website). I heard that 40% of the NHS were not in patient contact either.
We are looking at a booming industry.
October 22, 2022
Mike – I left the CofE too, and the RNLI and the National Trust and I have been deemed by people who would never have donated to or joined any of them to be ‘evil’.
All three organisations are now inimical to our nation.
October 22, 2022
The Conservatives have gone bonkers or are in total headless panic mode. Rishi Sunak across the threshold? The architect of the UKās highest taxes in 70 years.
That’s with out the flaws and head in the sand of his compatriot in the mess Boris Johnson
Surely with 350+ MPās there has to be better candidates than those that conspired to create our economic mess as part of Government in the last few years.
October 22, 2022
Many people like Borisā optimism. However, many will not forgive him for presiding over absurd lockdown regulations, such as not allowing you to visit your mother but it was okay for an estate agent to visit your mother.
October 22, 2022
you might have had police decend on you and mother meeting in a park holding a takeaway coffee..
October 23, 2022
descend ….drat.
October 22, 2022
Our debt is small compared to other countries , however we do have the independence to do something about it . The EU has been pumping incredible amounts to some of its members and yet does not come into the same scrutiny and criticism as we have . Worldwide inflation cannot be ignored . Creating an economic balance in order to attract growth and investment is surely the right way forward . We must adopt a co-ordinated approach that is not undermined by political instability .
October 22, 2022
I understand BOE put up interest rates because they believed (mistakenly according to Sir John) that it was necessary to reduce inflation. But why did the BOE decide to start selling bonds at this time as well?
October 22, 2022
Dear Paul, To be charitable I imagine that the Bank thought it was a soft option to sell gilts and allow long-term interest rates to rise rather than raise short-term Bank Rate to a credible anti-inflation level. Another big mistake. Falling gilt prices inevitably pushed the pound lower, pushing up inflation and state borrowing costs. Higher Bank Rate would have supported the pound and stabilised gilt yields, helping people to refinance their mortgages.
October 22, 2022
āIt reinforces my general point that their [OBRās] forecasting model does not seem to pick up the sensitivity of borrowing to the rate of growth in the economy.ā
Why does the Government allow its policies and actions to be judged by a single quango whose forecasts are so often wrong?
The inaccurate modelling and false predictions of the OBR are matched by those of the UN/IPCC/CCC climate modelling.
Why are these models so wrong?
Could it be because theyāre both populated by fifth column communists?
Could it be they exist because the Government can use them as an excuse to follow policies which go against their manifesto pledges? Hence the āI cannot deliver the mandate on which I was electedā¦ā
October 22, 2022
+1
October 22, 2022
I hate to say this, but we are in the dire position of being a prisoner of the markets. This is disappointing because our fiscal position is actually quite good : Borrowing in the lower half of the G7, unemployment remains very low, and inflation lower than 26 of the countries in Europe.The Truss energy plan will cause inflation to fall from now on, whereas it will remain higher across most of Europe and in the US, thanks to Biden’s Labour-style economics.
But, as Liz Truss unexpectedly discovered, any move away from following market orthodoxy will result in another run on the pound and the bond market. Stupid I know, but I think that we have no choice other than to go along with the demands of international markets and ride out any recession.
Only after their kind of stability has been re-established can the government more slowly start to follow the sensible growth plan that Ms Truss was seeking to implement.
I only hope it is not going to be too late to restore our economy before the next election.
October 22, 2022
@ChrisS +1 Oh so very true. But not a single one of the candidates is interested in the economy, it is better and easier for them to dig further into your wallet than have the country vibrant and resiliant
October 22, 2022
Lifelogic
No cost or figures shown of the damage done to the businesses in the ULEZ area, where Customers no longer visit due to cost.
Fortunately no members of our family now live in the recently expanded London ULEZ area, or the newer “proposed” even more extended area.
Thus no longer absolutely need to travel London at all.
For the occasional theatre trip we go with an organised group (coach travel included)
Used to enjoy visits to London a few decades ago, no longer, too expensive to get there, and it”s a scruffy, expensive and overcrowded place now.
October 23, 2022
even the skyline is now boring tall sheets of characterless glass, and daft prize winning Gherkins.
October 26, 2022
Perhaps Chris, Rishi can do us all a favour and recreate the great wealth he accumulated for himself by his mid-twenties for the Country (not just by marrying well, and boy, did he bat above his average there!)
Good on him; I don’t share the left’s obsession with people that do well, isn’t that what we all aim for not just for ourselves but our children and those we know? My Dads proudest of the fact that none of his kids has ever sponged a penny off him or the State lol. Now tell us how to do it Rishi, how do we make the Country richer and still pay all your big tax increases and fiscal dragging š
October 22, 2022
Dear Sir John,
The furlough scheme and energy price subsidies were necessary emergency measures to shield people from the instant shocks that we would otherwise have suffered. But they were just putting off the evil day, when we have to recognise that the people as a whole are considerably poorer than we were three years ago. And even when and if world oil and gas prices subside, it is the policy of the G7 and EU that domestic energy prices will remain higher. Hence the ill-fated dash for growth.
We also need to recognise that, long before Covid and Ukraine, we were spending about 3-4 per cent more
thsn we produce. Higher sustainable growth is not feasible until this gap has been closed. More North Sea oil
and gas will boost output and cut imports but “onshore gas” is now on the back burner so many more direct measures will be needed to cut imports, aid exports and cut government consumption.
By the way, I have not seen any news that a funding deal has yet been reached to recommission the Rough gas storage facility. Was there no pre-planning? Is there no hurry?
October 22, 2022
Rough is back in limited operation. It will take a programme of work costing up to Ā£2bn to restore it more fully. That is not achieved overnight. They hope to double capacity for next winter. At the moment it is a little over 8TWh, but the maximum rate of injection and withdrawal is slow, limited by the few functioning wells. It has now reached 28% full. For comparison an LNG tanker holds 0.8-1.65TWh and even the large QMax vessels discharge in little more than a day.
October 22, 2022
Yet again another single mother being presented by the BBC. Unable to pay a Ā£25k Wonga loan and bailiffs on the door because of the wicked Tories. They never ask what the father is contributing to the pot.
Benefits skew, Sir John ?
Dr Martin Luther King Jnr complained that benefits were skewed to deliberately force fathers away from their families in order to keep black children down. This failed (?) policy applies to all working class in British society now and has done for decades. Is it deliberate ?
We now have a right Eton mess. Those with the best IQs have languished in sink schools and on sink estates.
October 22, 2022
From The Telegraph
“UKRIās annual accounts show that the number of directors at the body rose from 91 in 2018 to 136 by the 2021/22 financial year, while the number of senior managers increased from 428 to 544.”
Quango’s are unaccountable to the Taxpayer that pays thier wages, they call this democracy. Meanwhile the Country goes broke
October 26, 2022
The PCS union says, “there is more than enough money in the economy to ensure we receive a fair share” Ian.
These Quangos, monopoly-protected industries and services all demand more of the cake that they do little to create and bake.
October 22, 2022
I’m happy. Got a letter from the Pension BlobBods.
Going to send me a one off Ā£500 smackers
to keep me warm.
So thanks ( genuinely )
Rishi, Boris, Therese or whoever.
October 23, 2022
John, you are absolutely right. What kind of Conservative Party do we have now?!