A budget to beat recession? (from Conservative Home)

 The Autumn Statement will be one of the most crucial budgets ever delivered. Rishi and Jeremy have in their hands the opportunity to rescue the Uk economy from poor performance and recession if they wish, or they can accept the depressing official advice and double down with austerity. Tax rises and the wrong spending cuts now will turn a downturn into a nasty and long recession. This will lead to job losses, struggling businesses and a bigger state deficit. 
          Their challenge should be to put forward a budget and plan for growth as Liz Truss proposed, but one with forecasts, numbers and sensible controls over spending and borrowing which in his haste Kwasi left out. This is important for the whole country, and for MPs’ constituents. It is also important for the Conservative party whose reputation for economic competence hinges on it.
          Over the last fifty years we have seen Labour lose badly on two occasions and Conservatives lose twice, once badly, thanks to presiding over recessions

Edward Heath presided over the 1973-4 recession. His 1970-2 policies of competition and credit control were inflationary leading to a borrowing binge . The inflation was worsened by the  energy crisis when OPEC hiked the oil price. He tightened too much in response and lost the 1974 election. 

Harold Wilson lost control of the economy  in 1974-5, created a recession and left office. Labour lost the next election under his successor.  

John Major on official advice put us into the Exchange rate Mechanism. As I warned it took us through a very predictable  violent boom/bust cycle with a five quarter recession. This led to a huge defeat in 1997 which took the Conservatives  13 years to recover from. 

Gordon Brown created his own disaster, leading and encouraging the wrong official advice. He put us through a banking and credit boom, only to collapse it too fast through severe policy. The five quarter recession took the economy down by more than 6% . Labour have still not won an election in the 12 years that followed, with their reputation for economics in tatters.  

 

 

          It was a pity  Boris did not use the advice he was offered to cut out the money creation and bond buying  and tighten money policy last year to keep inflation down. We have more inflation now than we needed. Japan and China remind us with their low inflation rates it was not all  caused by oil and gas prices.  It was a tragedy  Liz did not present a rounded and costed Growth Plan within an economic  framework that would have worked as some proposed.  These mistakes must not lead the new team to conclude they must impose more austerity. The prime task today is fighting recession. Inflation will come down rapidly next year thanks to the  monetary stringency now  being applied. The Bank itself sees inflation down to 2%  in a couple of years time. 

          If government  accepts all the OBR and Bank advice to tighten too much into a downturn it will be bad economics and worse politics. We will end up with a deeper and longer downturn than we need, and with a bigger deficit than if we had been more willing to offset some of the recessionary forces.  You cannot tax your way into growth and recovery. A fractious and unhappy party is in  no mood for tax rises nor for spending cuts that harm individual incomes and front line services in health, law and order  and education. 

          Of course there is a need to rein in wasteful and less essential public spending. In recent years the purse strings have been loosened across a  very wide field. The Chancellor should stop the Bank of England taking losses on bonds. There is no need to do this. This will produce an immediate saving of £11bn this year. This has always been a joint control policy where the Bank needs the Chancellor’s approval.  

          The Department of Work and pensions should promote more employment for the many on benefits that could do some work. Remove the 16 hours rule for working whilst on benefit, and improve mentoring and assistance into employment  as we need to fill many more job vacancies from people already settled here. There is an unfinished part to Iain Duncan Smith’s excellent benefit reforms.  

            The government could suspend the Smart meter programme saving more than £1bn a year , as everyone who really wants a free smart meter now has one. The Treasury should stop Councils borrowing to buy up property . The Cabinet Office can impose a recruitment freeze on public sector jobs other than uniformed roles, teachers and medics . This will give more opportunities for promotion to those already working in the civil service, and assist in increasing productivity after a period of no progress. They can reduce the central London office estate to reflect more home working and transfers out of London. There should be a privatisation programme including the sale of  Channel 4 , the British Business Bank and more Nat West shares to the private sector .
             The Transport department should cut rail subsidies which are funding far too many near empty train services following the collapse of commuting . The Business  and Energy Department should trim the energy support package. They could limit cut price energy to a normal family amount so larger users pay full price for the extra they buy . We should not accept the need to provide more overseas aid for net zero or any other purpose other than a new disaster where we want to  help generously and energetically.
            We also need to boost tax revenues. Often the way to increase tax revenues from capital gains, profits, transactions and incomes is to lower the rate, not raise it. Every time we lowered Income tax and Corporation tax rates revenues rose.  The government should accelerate licences for North Sea oil and gas fields. Every extra barrel we produce ourselves switches substantial tax from a foreign country to ourselves as home production replaces imports. It also cuts the CO2.  Government should allow the private sector to finance production of oil and gas from the large Falklands islands discovery which would also displace foreign imports and help with expenditures. It could use more of the Defra grant money to boost home food production backed by more mechanisation/glasshouses. This will boost taxable farm incomes. 
           Any amelioration of the downturn will be revenue rich. The UK figures are very sensitive to the growth rate. As we saw last year, a bit higher growth rate gave us a central government borrowing requirement £120bn below the budget OBR forecast. Let’s have that budget for growth . It would help unite the party, it would help restore our economy and would cheer people up. It would be good economics and even better politics. It would also be quite a surprise. 

184 Comments

  1. Lifelogic
    November 15, 2022

    Indeed rather more than 13 years to recover from the ERM as Cameron threw the first election with his Cast Iron Treaty ratting and other large errors – lumbering us with Clegg and the LibDim dopes and the fixed term parliament act. Has it really recovered even now?

    I see Stanley Johnson let slip that he is happy for and plans exist it seems for some people to be banned from flying anywhere at all, so deluded is he over the plant food religion, not his family or King Charles’s one assumes.

    1. Nottingham Lad Himself
      November 15, 2022

      It isn’t a budget that people like Simon need.

      A British cheesemaker has sold his business to a larger rival to regain access to customers in the European Union after Brexit left him with an estimated £600,000 black hole in lost EU sales.

      Simon Spurrell, who made headlines when he highlighted prohibitive export costs after the UK’s exit from the single market, will remain managing director of the Macclesfield-based Cheshire Cheese Company and retains a stake in the business

      Snap out of it for pity’s sake.

      1. a-tracy
        November 15, 2022

        Snap out of what NLH?

        What exactly do you want to happen?

        The trade and cooperation agreement was supposed to be a free trade deal? What stopped your cheese manufacturer from exporting himself instead of selling up, he said the volumes of cheese were made up by the local market increasing. I think the department of trade needs to tell us why this £600,000 worth of export business to the EU was impossible for him to do. Just how much cheese are we importing from the EU, if they are stopping our exports then we need to reciprocate and our trade department need to pull their fingers out. Yet another department being accused of falling down without answering this, come on Kemi give us the facts.

      2. Barbara
        November 15, 2022

        All that means is that he couldn’t be bothered to do the paperwork.

    2. Hope
      November 15, 2022

      LL,
      Lib dumbs increased tax threshold producing tax cuts, not Tories.

      JR’s blog is spot on but will not even be considered. After blaming Truss so much there is no chance they will need JR’s advice. None. Let us see if the Tory MPs vote for the Sunak and Hunt deep recession plan. Also touted benefit claimants to get inflation rise!! Come all ye immigrants it does not pay to work in UK, certainly not on any low paid job. Socialist Tories for you.

      Shapps more interested in keeping EU standard confirmation on goods than changing to UK one promised by the end of this year. They are not getting rid of EU red tape or laws either as promised. Another remainer coup to keep UK aligned to EU.

      Quietly put out the cost of HS2 is higher than any benefit! That should be Shapps focus to save taxpayer money by cancelling the next leg! What it demonstrates is that the Sunak and Hunt would rather put up taxes for a wasteful EU vanity project so trains can go fast from EU to UK major cities!

      1. a-tracy
        November 15, 2022

        Sunak and Hunt especially have talked up a recession. The economy has stalled since the half-term in October, I wonder how much less was spent by the public sector after the half-term break than in the four weeks before; it’s almost as though they switched the economy off.

        1. Hope
          November 15, 2022

          JR, please explain what councils have done with NHB and CIL for each new property and why councils are allowed to charge maintenance fee each month for parks etc on top of community charge? In addition we already pay an extra amount for adult social care and flood defence. We pay tax elsewhere for these ie Enviornment Agency and National insurance. How many times is your party and govt taxing us for the same thing?

          Is Hunt aware? Does he have a clue or just utterly cruel in making people poor?

          1. a-tracy
            November 16, 2022

            Do the New Homes Bonus and the Community Infrastructure Levy have to be spent in the town where all the new homes are being built, or can they be distributed to other areas in the County preferred by the Leaders of the Council?

    3. Peter
      November 15, 2022

      I cannot see this article on ‘Conservative Home’( a name that should be challenged under the Trades Description Act).

      However, they do let the cat out of the bag with the covering words of the diary :-

      ‘Hunts mission is not to strike a balance between not spooking the markets and not intensifying the recession. It’s not to spook the markets. Period.’

      Not spooking the markets being code for slavishly following the demands of the globalists.

      1. Hope
        November 15, 2022

        P,
        Tories have out spent Coy yen and want more!

    4. Lynn Atkinson
      November 15, 2022

      I would like to institute a ban on some named families ‘flying back. I’m prepared to pay for one way tickets.

    5. Cuibono
      November 15, 2022

      +1
      He called it “The National Plan”.
      Wonder if he was meant to let that out?
      Of course the rich will be buying carbon credits!

      1. glen cullen
        November 16, 2022

        The UK Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS) mirrored to the EU Emissions Trading Scheme

    6. Original Richard
      November 15, 2022

      LL :

      It’s not just flying that will be carbon controlled but everything – food, heating, all travel and purchases.

      This is the personal carbon credit system.

      This is what Mr. Sunak meant when he said at COP26 :
      “So our third action is to rewire the entire global financial system for Net Zero.”

      This will be total control of our lives by a ruling elite and brought about by the public’s acceptance of the CAGW/Net Zero scam.

  2. Mark B
    November 15, 2022

    Good morning.

    This led to a huge defeat in 1997 which took the Conservatives 13 years to recover from.

    I am inclined to disagree. The Conservative Party, as some of us understand it to be, has never recovered. It just morphed into New, Blue Labour.

    You cannot tax your way into growth . . .

    We have as the First Lord of the Treasury a man who is soley responsible for both the massive inflation and the highest taxes in 70 years. We also have a man who thinks that locking people up in their homes and stopping them from working and trashing the economy is a good idea, all for the sake of controlling a virus with a low death rate.

    If I was a betting man I’d put my money of more of the same rather than growth.

    In recent years the purse strings have been loosened across a very wide field.

    Due to the then Chancellor’s policies some £20bn was lost in fraud.

    One other positive our kind host forgot to mention, was the amendments to Stamp Duty (Holiday) which resulted in much higher sales.

    As our kind host has alluded – Less is more.

    1. Lifelogic
      November 15, 2022

      +1

      1. Hope
        November 15, 2022

        +++1 Mark.

        The Tories cannot claim to be low tax as Cameron andmOsborne lied when tax is at a 75 year high and will increase further after this budget.

        Sunak said he would serve with integrity and implement 2019 manifesto. He now puts up tax. He is a liar and acting without integrity he claimed. He Blair’s Truss when he knows it was his decisions and action that caused inflation. He claimed we know we could trust him with the economy! He is beyond help a liar and lacks total self reflection!

        1. a-tracy
          November 15, 2022

          Hope, do you know what the ‘real term’ tax increases are? Is 75% the actual figure or ‘real term’ tax rises?

          Whenever people talk of spending cuts i.e. ‘spending per pupil in England has fallen by more than £1000’, they don’t mean £1000 is spent, this despite a £7bn funding boost, so a £7bn boost to education becomes a 9% drop IFS. They use ‘real term’ 9% drops in spending.

          So where has the 9% that used to be spent on education per pupil been spent instead? How come the IFS never tell us what has risen in ‘real term’ spending? Because according to them and the opposition everything has fallen, fallen, fallen in ‘real terms’ despite billions extra.

          The Tories are never on the front foot on this, so people believe it is true. the biggest cuts in spending per pupil in 40 years we are told by Luke Sibieta. They say fallen behind pupils will never catch up, why don’t we have a national volunteer program with early bright retired people helping out, get them their DBS checks and encouraging them to come in of the morning and rota them to help our the fallen behind in the basics. Just as part of the covid recovery.

          “Overall, the most deprived secondary schools have received a 14% real-terms cut to spending per pupil between 2009-10 and 2019-20, compared with a 9% drop for the least deprived schools, the IFS said.” You could solve this if you balanced out areas better, no more than 10% preferably 15% maximum of social housing in a school catchment area.

        2. Lifelogic
          November 15, 2022

          Sunak has already ratted serially on the manifesto tax promises and the triple lock. Perhaps like Cameron he is a “low tax at heart Conservative” but in never in any of his actions.

    2. BOF
      November 15, 2022

      Excellent observations Mark B.

    3. Ian B
      November 15, 2022

      @Mark B + agreed

    4. glen cullen
      November 15, 2022

      Concise and very accurate

    5. Lynn Atkinson
      November 15, 2022

      It was nearly 25 years between outright Conservatives victories. Relying on the Lib Dems is hardly a victory. And had Cameron not promised the longed for in/out referendum, they would not have won even then.
      This is an existential crisis for the Conservatives, lead by a man expressly rejected. It is a high farce that today he will accuse President Putin with over 80% approval ratings and many election victories, and indeed internationally scrutinized referenda victories in the war-torn ex-Ukrainian regions that he has saved, behind him.
      I warn you Tory MPs, this ‘tory’ does not speak for me!

      1. Shirley M
        November 15, 2022

        Good points, Lynn. Isn’t it ironic that Brexiters have elected the CONS on more than one occasion, driven by the promises of the referendum and Brexit itself, and then they reward the Brexiters loyalty with betrayal. I hope the electorate will NOT fall for the lies again.

  3. Lifelogic
    November 15, 2022

    Simon Heffer the other day had a sensible article:- “For Hunt and Sunak, raising taxes is the coward’s way out. The Tory way to cut debt is to strip out the bloated public sector and use the savings to incentivise growth instead of suffocating it”

    Indeed, except that raising tax rates is not a “way out” at all. From the current hugely overtaxed position it will raise less and throttle the tax base going forwards too. Scrapping NonDom status and seems likely would be a disaster for tax receipts and the economy.

    He also says:- “The public sector, despite more than 12 years of Conservative-led government, is packed with people who are fundamentally pointless. The NHS blows £40 million a year on diversity officers. They infest local government, in which serving the people who work for it seems more important than serving those who pay for it. There are 326 diversity officers in Whitehall alone.”

    Indeed, but if only they were merely pointless Simon, many in the state sector actively do massive net harm on top of their direct costs.

    1. BOF
      November 15, 2022

      Yes LL, you are correct about net harm. Calling them ‘officers’ also gives the impression of authoritarianism giving the impression of a totalitarian state.

      1. Hope
        November 15, 2022

        LL, I

        think you miss the point a little. This is the Socialist Tory way to destroy our culture and way of life through the public sector indoctrination so it becomes the norm not to challenge anything related to gender, sexuality, race etc. Harman brought in the Equality Act, it was nothing of the sort it was to stop challenge and free speech on such issues. Tories built on it not changed it. Same for Red Ed’s net stupid climate scam. I also think you will find Tories have out spent Corbyn!!

    2. Ian B
      November 15, 2022

      @Lifelogic +1 – yes they are cowards looking for the quite life by obeying those we never and cant vote for, forgetting to serve the people and the Nation

    3. No Longer Anonymous
      November 15, 2022

      Indeed, LL

      Our council tax is rising by a large margin despite an ever increasing number of householders and despite cuts in services.

      We are a nation which is a Public Sector Pension Scheme with a dwindling economy attached.

      1. Fedupsoutherner
        November 15, 2022

        NLA. Yes. Look at all the new housing estates. The council does nothing on them and is responsible for no upkeep. Residents have to arrange their own maintenance. They still pay council tax though. Where is all this extra money going?

        1. MWB
          November 15, 2022

          FUS,
          The money is going on things that the Civil Service State likes, such as support for immigrants, support for Ukraine, foreign aid in it’s various forms, support for public workers (themselves), and wars wars wars.
          Have you ever noticed how there is always money without limit for wars ?
          Have you also ever noticed that the best countries in the world don’t fund the rest of the world as we do, and don’t pay for wars and don’t want a so called presence on the world stage. They are happy to run their economies for the benefit of their citizens – Denmark, Norway, Switzerland etc.

        2. Hope
          November 15, 2022

          NLA,
          Do not forget the councils get NHB and CIL for each new house and business premise based on square footage of property. Some of the ghetto villages, ie one had 22,000 houses built yet the infrastructure plan was clear there would not be enough infrastructure the money was spent elsewhere on vanity projects! Also the new houses have to pay an additional maintenance fee for parks etc to the council! On top of community charge. It is outrageous.

          It is okay though, Hunt is going to give councils cart Blanche to charge whatever they want! This socialist outfit is beyond help.

  4. turboterrier
    November 15, 2022

    Any so called good reputation we may have or think we had has been totally destroyed, by the incompetence of our leaders, cabinets and the standard of the majority of the elected members.
    An 80+ majority just wasted.
    Too weak leadership to finally eradicate the biggest concerns of the electorate. Immigration, energy, employment, benefit systems, forcing climate change and Net Zero fear policies upon us without open and proper debate basically controlled by others.
    History will prove just how terrible the destruction of the party and the country was and the price the population paid for it.

    1. Lifelogic
      November 15, 2022

      +1 and with almost certainly even worse to come from Starmer/SNP in 2024.

      1. Donna
        November 15, 2022

        Oh well, as Klaus Schwab knows, you first have to hit rock bottom in order to build back better.
        That’s why we got Maggie in 1979: we’d hit rock bottom under Red-Labour and Blu-Labour.

        The Blu-Labour NutJobs who have wrecked our economy need destroying, so that something better can be created. Which ever “wins” the next General Election we are going to hit rock bottom because they effectively have the same policies.

      2. Hope
        November 15, 2022

        Total self destruction. All Tory party had to do was deliver a proper Brexit which is why they were given 80 seat majority. Utterly failed without any good reason or explanation. Gave away N.Ireland to EU, gave away fishing waters to EU, border down Irish Sea and check goods at our expense from GB to NI after claimed no checks or border. Liar. Net stupid by Johnson destroyed any remaining doubt.

        1. Lifelogic
          November 15, 2022

          +1

        2. Lynn Atkinson
          November 15, 2022

          Blanket ended the problem of asylum-seekers sneaking into this country from the French coast. In 2002 a law was passed in this country which gave the Home Secretary the legal power to refuse asylum to everybody arriving from France. This law is not, and has never been, used.
          Why not JR?

          1. Lynn Atkinson
            November 15, 2022

            Computer changed ‘Blunket’, sorry.

          2. glen cullen
            November 15, 2022

            Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002
            Asylum claims by persons with connection to safe third State (ie travelling from France)
            https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2002/41/section/80B

        3. Lindsay McDougall
          November 15, 2022

          Don’t forget that the US has an Irish American Democrat Party President, who is going to visit Northern Ireland (without so much as a “By your leave”) and “help” NI’s Executive to be reinstated. The only sensible response to say “Get your tanks off my lawn” and to declare Biden PNG.

    2. Shirley M
      November 15, 2022

      + many, Turbo. If only politicians/political parties were honest when they are touting for votes instead of telling deliberate lies and obtaining their votes by fraud. An honest Parliament would do something to eradicate such fraud, but the majority are in the same club. Self and party first, country last (although I wonder if the country gets ANY consideration, these days)!

    3. BOF
      November 15, 2022

      +1 tt.

    4. MPC
      November 15, 2022

      Very well put. Mr Redwood hopes that Sunak will suddenly change his spots and go Conservative but it surely won’t happen. Yesterday’s announcement of a renewed migration ‘pact’ with France is another example of managing expectations down and of continuing largely as is. Suella Braverman is now another identikit Sunakian cabinet member.

      1. Fedupsoutherner
        November 15, 2022

        MPC. Same as Pretty Useless then. Loads of talk and no action. A complete let down.

      2. a-tracy
        November 15, 2022

        Well now the French are getting so much more they won’t mind the boats that our border force have to rescue going straight back to the French coast will they after they have failed on their deal until it reduces as they realise its not going to work this winter.

    5. Ian B
      November 15, 2022

      @turboterrier +1, it is beginning to look there is a need for a full blown revolution to remove complacency from Parliament and rediscover a full blown democracy. Although not completely relevant today but maybe to be an MP and a Leader of the country these individuals should add their signature to the Magna Carter. To think it was conceived in the UK and is followed by the free democracies of the World yet trashed in the UK by the Establishment and their puppets the Political Class

    6. Timaction
      November 15, 2022

      The Tory’s are toast. Left wing tax, spend, mass immigration, woke lying party.

  5. Lifelogic
    November 15, 2022

    So comedian Joe Lycett is to shred £10,000 of his own cash over some Beckham protest.
    Well this will reduce the Sunak caused inflation a tiny bit I suppose, but given that we have had nearly one £Trillion of QE over the last 13 years it will not go far. But then the government will probably just print even more to replace this £10,000 and more. Then, in effect, he will just be paying £10k of extra voluntary tax. This for Sunak & Hunt to doubtless waste again.

    Just a couple more days until we see how much Hunt will increase taxes to “attempt” to pay for the vast incompetence and government waste of Sunak, Boris, Hunt, Handcock et al. Test and trace, HS2, the ineffective and dangerous vaccines, the appallingly wasteful NHS, the net zero religion, the vast renewables & EV subsidies, the subsidies for the expensive energy caused by the net zero religion) the unused temp. hospitals, the illegal migrant’s hotel bills, the misdirected plastic woke police, the “loans” for millions of pointless degrees, the idiotic and very long lockdowns, the Covid loan fraud, eat out to help out, the hundreds of millions of Danegeld for the French, the vaccine compensation bills, the hundreds of diversity and climate change officers, the committee for climate change & their insanity…

    1. Hope
      November 15, 2022

      Plus Sunak gave away another unfunded £11.6 billion last week to countries around the world of climate scam! No mention of cutting overseas aid, another £12 billion, no cutting our taxes to corrupt Ukraine! Sunak frittering away more than the whole of the EU!

      1. Bill B.
        November 15, 2022

        Still, I get the impression that ‘Rasheed Sanook’ is less interested in propping up Ukraine than his predecessors. That might save us a few billions, if we’re lucky. And to quote Biden again, the Russians have pulled out of ‘Fallujah’, so the war should be over soon anyway.

    2. Mockbeggar
      November 15, 2022

      I see that private sector pay has risen by 5.7% and public sector somewhat less. I wonder how much extra income tax this will bring into treasury coffers this financial year and whether the OBR has taken this into account in its model.

    3. a-tracy
      November 15, 2022

      Lifelogic, you were on here daily calling for more ventilators, and more vaccines for men faster than women (all those saying hold on, we don’t want this vaccine were completely pilloried and treated like they were going to kill people), more test and trace, and more PPE.

      Go back and read your messages from April 2020! Teachers wanted daily tests, hospital workers wanted daily tests, and everyone was jumping up and down for more free tests; they all have to be processed, often the people doing those tests had been thrown out of work with no furlough, I know two small shop owners who did the testing to pay their mortgages, there were plenty of people in their queues.

      1. Lifelogic
        November 15, 2022

        Well what is wrong with that A Tracy? Had the vaccines been safe and ~ 80-90% effective as they claimed (quite wrongly it seems) was shown in the trials then vaccinating ~ 5 years men earlier than women would have saved many hundreds of lives as men of a given age were sig. more likely to die.

        Perhaps they did not do this as they already knew the vaccines were rather ineffective but I suspect it was just incompetence or politics? Ventilators & Oxygen masks seemed to helped many people survive but other treatments later took over for many.

        1. a-tracy
          November 16, 2022

          There is nothing wrong with it? What I’m saying is the government were forced into faster and faster action when their usual PPE suppliers couldn’t supply them, they had to order in quickly from new providers, and other Countries in the World kept our supplies for themselves inc. our neighbours the French and Germans, and every night the news was telling us we were killing nurses and carers by not protecting them, but now the government is condemned for buying too much or the wrong sort.

          I don’t know why the AZ vaccine was stopped, it seemed effective, and low cost and each time I’ve had the Pfizer vaccine since, which is a lot higher cost, I have had a host of problems from headaches for a week, to a twitchy eye, to swollen arm for five days and generally feeling unwell. Now we have the worry it is altering our genes and causing heart problems and strokes. The vaccines weren’t used in China and they’re continually locking down whole Cities still so the jury is still out on the effectiveness certainly of the over 60-year-olds.

  6. Lifelogic
    November 15, 2022

    If they do not even cancel HS2 and Net Zero we will know that tax borrow and piss down the drain is to continue but then I suppose we know this already.

    1. Sharon
      November 15, 2022

      They won’t cancel Net Zero – that’s the new religion. Too many vested interests in that! Plus that’s what being used to transition to dystopia!

    2. Cuibono
      November 15, 2022

      +many
      I reckon that HS2 is the result of a long time commitment…some barmy “Core Network” thing WITH some EU funding apparently! (If true).
      That isn’t splashed across the headlines is it?
      I also think that Net Zero. for which we have the pleasure of paying. is the result of capitalists wringing the last drop of profit out of the system. Now they want to make money out of data or somesuch nonsense. (We are units of data?). Create markets where none existed.
      4th Industrial Revolution. With each Revolution they take more away from us.

    3. Ian Wragg
      November 15, 2022

      Both fishy and until want us back in the SM and CU so they will destroy the economy so they can rejoin as it will be our salvation. 1969 all over again.
      Your toast at the next election and that will be sooner rather than later.

    4. Mike Wilson
      November 15, 2022

      we will know that tax borrow and piss down the drain is to continue but then I suppose we know this already.

      If we didn’t know it before coming across this site, we certainly know it now. Boy, don’t you ever have a day off? You must wake up at 5.00 am reciting the same old stuff and sit all day pounding your keyboard. Take a day off – go run your ‘businesses’.

    5. Lynn Atkinson
      November 15, 2022

      JR tweeted yesterday I believe, that this government is going to spend 27% more than was spent in 2018/9. £38,000 per family in the U.K.
      Frankly both Rodney and I were reeling.
      Imagine if each family instead had half that as extra income and invested and spent it within our own communities?
      But no. Sunak strutting like a bantam at the G20 wants to lambast The Commodities Superpower of the World! A man would could not even get his own party to elect him shouting that the much elected Russian President is a Dictator! And in our name! Read the Chinese readout of the meeting between China and the USA rather than the American one which inexplicably leaves out the most critical bit.

      1. R.Grange
        November 15, 2022

        That’s why taxes go up, Lynn. No surprise there. Any more than there should be when we read that the governmnet is spending £45mn of our money per week on hotel accommodation for migrants. Three or four years ago the figure was only a fraction of that. The extra money to pay for our ‘guests’ has to be found from somewhere, after all.

        1. Timaction
          November 15, 2022

          I am at a loss to understand why this so called Government aren’t deporting these economic illegal aliens in the same number as is coming in! Why do they do nothing? Extra money to the French won’t stop it. If the law needs changing change it. Get out of the ECHR and repeal the Human Rights Act. If your Government won’t Reform Party will. No ones voting for more of the same. The illegals are a very visible reminder every day. Increasing taxes for all foreign people and foreign causes with no benefit for the English people.

          1. R.Grange
            November 16, 2022

            You can understand it, Timaction, once you accept that the government and those it works for actually want the migrants to come in. The motive for allowing the invasion is to create a cheap and non-unionised labour force. If we continue to believe the government care about what voters want, we’ll get it wrong every time. The only thing they care about is what voters do. Do they place their cross against a Conservative candidate, or will they support Reform UK? Everything else, to our political leaders, is mere chatter.

        2. beresford
          November 15, 2022

          The ‘good’ news is that there is no security holding them in the hotels. So after a day or two they saunter out past the front desk to start their ‘new life’ in the black economy or a drugs cartel. And if subsequently caught they tell the police they were ‘trafficked’, which means they can’t be deported due to the Modern Slavery Act.

          1. a-tracy
            November 16, 2022

            How does the Modern Slavery Act stop someone from being returned to their home Country? Denmark, France and Germany seem capable of refusing asylum. Is this something else May did us over with? She should be made to answer for this decision if so.

      2. a-tracy
        November 15, 2022

        Lynn, yet the Guardian regularly tell us (courtesy of the IFS and JRF) that ‘real term’ spending on schools is e.g. £1000 per head per pupil, councils are down, the NHS are down, social care etc. has gone down.

        So just what has gone up and by what ‘real term’ spending %.

        1. Lynn Atkinson
          November 15, 2022

          Nobody to give us a factual answer than our host. Everyone subject to tighter belts but the Government, time they learned that they are our servants and not our masters.
          No MP should receive any wages at all. If you have not been able to provide for yourself, you are not good enough to hold the purse-strings. That’s my improvement on the Chartists demands.

  7. Lifelogic
    November 15, 2022

    “The Transport department should cut rail subsidies which are funding far too many near empty train services following the collapse of commuting” I caught a train Newbury to Paddington recently (mid afternoon) it was 12 carriages long yet only five people got off at Paddington. The Government still claim trains are more CO2 efficient than cars (plus you sill have the car/taxi/bus for the end journeys). Not almost empty ones for sure.

    1. Cuibono
      November 15, 2022

      +1
      I should think that during the recent great plague the govt. spent more money dissuading people from using trains and even paying them not to than has ever been spent keeping the system going.

      1. a-tracy
        November 15, 2022

        Just how many paying passengers did the whole train service carry in April 2020, May 2020 and June 2020?

    2. Hope
      November 15, 2022

      LL, reported Treasury and FCO only have about 40% and 50% staff at work. After the catastrophic Afghanistan debacle a leader would have them back at work or be sacked.

    3. Peter
      November 15, 2022

      LL,
      7 out of 9 comments today.

      Is this a record?

      1. Lester_Cynic
        November 15, 2022

        Peter

        No one is forcing you to read them, I enjoy LL’s comments as I suspect many others do

        The only posts that I can remember you making are criticising LL

        Get a life!

        1. Shirley M
          November 15, 2022

          Agreed, Lester. It’s beginning to look like a vendetta by a minority, but as usual the minorities think they should make all the rules for the majority, whether they want it or not! Create your own blog instead of trying to hijack this one.

          I don’t see a problem. Nobody is forced to agree with anyone and LL is never abusive. Are you going to report him to the ‘thought police’ and get him ‘cancelled’?

        2. Peter
          November 15, 2022

          Lester Pigott,

          You are one of Lifelogic’s fanboys.

          Many others find him tiresome. I don’t read his posts, I scan them for familiar phrases. I will continue to post – just as he does. The difference is I will never have his verbiage.

          If you don’t like it – tough.

          Assuming, of course, this post is not deleted by the site owner.

        3. Mike Wilson
          November 15, 2022

          I enjoy LL’s comments as I suspect many others do

          Really? I skip over them. He says the SAME thing, 10 times a day, day after day after day! You enjoy reading the SAME thing over and over again. You must be a glutton for punishment. He occasionally says something, or reports something, pertinent. Most of it is the same phrases copied and pasted ad infinitum. It lowers this site to the level of an echo chamber.

    4. Juno
      November 15, 2022

      There are too many trains at Paddington, full stop.

      One can be on time on a train to London and wait five, to ten minutes outside the station while a myriad of empty trains pass in and out sharing too few platforms.

      Clearly the projected figures for passenger travel which begat such volumes of rail traffic are out of date.

    5. Lynn Atkinson
      November 15, 2022

      I see busses every day – just one person on board and he being paid! Wasted money, wasted asset.

      1. beresford
        November 15, 2022

        Trouble is, if you want people to use public transport it has to be there when you want to use it. And that may not be in rush hour.

        1. Al
          November 17, 2022

          “The Transport department should cut rail subsidies which are funding far too many near empty train services following the collapse of commuting . ” -JR

          Or they could improve the ways to purchase tickets to get more people using them. Recent cases I am aware of: a group of tourists visiting to London in August chose to hire a car rather than get travel passes for two adults and three children because it was cheaper and didn’t mean registering their children’s details with Oyster. A person (living outside London) with a relative emergency-admitted to a London hospital for a week tried to buy a travelcard, only to be told they could only get it through Oyster/Keycard, and it would take 5 working days to arrive, so was utterly useless. They used a taxi instead because it was easier than trying to use Public transport with a credit card.

          Seriously, restore travelcards that can be bought immediately at point of use, and public transport use will go up again. Weekend travelcards for shoppers and similar would do much to restore lost revenue.

          Reply yes they need more fare travelling passengers and that does require new routes, fares and tickets

  8. acorn
    November 15, 2022

    06:40 and seven out of nine “replies” are supposedly from Lifelogic. Something doesn’t smell right on the site.

    1. Peter
      November 15, 2022

      acorn,

      To make it worse Lifelogic has cut back on his bingo words and phrases. No ‘PPE’, no ‘drains’, no ‘greencrap’ etc. So I don’t even get the consolation of racking up a high score anymore.

    2. Lester_Cynic
      November 15, 2022

      acorn

      Don’t you start!

    3. Lifelogic
      November 15, 2022

      SORRY I just woke up early today.

      1. acorn
        November 15, 2022

        Posts and seeded replies, reminds me of many car auctions I attend. When the bidding is slow, you get the feeling that the clock on one wall is bidding against the fire extinguisher hanging on the opposite wall.

      2. Mike Wilson
        November 15, 2022

        SORRY I just woke up early today.

        Come, come – you wake up early every day. You must wake up at 5.00 am – and gleefully fire the laptop up to read what Mr. Redwood has to say and, then, largely ignore what he has said and repeat your endless mantras. And you seem to keep it up all day. Fair play, you have some staying power. Do you have nothing else in your life?

  9. Cuibono
    November 15, 2022

    I know exactly who should pay to get us out of this manufactured mess.
    And it ain’t the taxpayer and his dog!

    Was the Truss fiasco a set up to “prove” that this uber austerity is necessary?

  10. Stred
    November 15, 2022

    Prof Patrick Minford, writing in the Express, agrees with you. He’s run the figures in his department and the leaked proposed tax rises and BoE actions will run the economy into the ground. Richard and the Hunt must either be daft or working for someone else.

    1. glen cullen
      November 15, 2022

      Or are Sunak & Hunt just a true reflection of the new ideology of the parliamentary tory party (blue labour)

  11. Donna
    November 15, 2022

    Sir John, your Party no longer has a reputation for economic competence. It doesn’t have a reputation for competence at all.

    12 years: no conservative policies implemented whatsoever, and we might as well have a Corbyn/McDonnel Government.

    The inexperienced City-Boy and his sidekick Hunt are WEF-supporting Globalists. They aren’t in the business of doing what’s right for the British people. They do what is right for the UN, WEF, EU and other assorted Supra-National Organisations.

    The Bank of England WANTS a recession to get inflation down. The WEF wants to destroy economies in order to Build Back Better. So that’s what we’re going to get.

    Use cash everyone: if you don’t, you will get Digital Currency and a Social Credit Control System.

    1. Lifelogic
      November 15, 2022

      +1

    2. Mark B
      November 15, 2022

      The Bank of England WANTS a recession to get inflation down.

      EXACTLY !!

      This is what I have been saying. If the BoE’s only job is to control inflation, then it will do all it can to achieve just that. They’re jobs are NOT dependent on getting the economy moving because that is not their job and, as for jobs, they will not lose theirs as they are not up for any elections.

      This is why the Chancellor needs to ALL the economic leavers, including interest rates, at his disposal.

    3. Original Richard
      November 15, 2022

      Donna : “The Bank of England WANTS a recession to get inflation down.”

      Since existing taxation on earnings and consumption is now at a possible maximum, they now want a recession as an excuse to start wealth taxes and thus finally destroy the middle classes and democracy.

    4. Mike Wilson
      November 15, 2022

      Use cash everyone: if you don’t, you will get Digital Currency and a Social Credit Control System.

      Absolutely. I have resolved to stop flashing the credit card and the phone, draw out cash and use it whenever I can. Lots of places now have ‘we don’t take cash’ signs. This doesn’t seem to be costing them any business.

      I had a letter from NatWest the other day telling me that the WOKINGHAM branch is to close. I’ve banked with NatWest for 50 years and at that branch for 30 years. The thing is, if they are closing a branch in a large town like Wokingham (even larger now, eh Mr. Redwood? After the insane number of houses built there in the last 30 years, and the last 10 in particular) – what hope is there for the rest of the country?

      What is to happen if, say, you want to pay £10k for something in cash? Where will you be able to get the cash from?

  12. Stephen Reay
    November 15, 2022

    They will go for austerity and lose at the next election. The Conservatives are likely to lose anyway , but it is more likely after the budget.
    This is an example of this crazy country.
    I got a letter from the tax man chasing me for £3. He’s going to send another letter with my new tax code . Its cost more to write and send letters out just to collect my £3. By the way Amazon paid no tax on profits in 2021.

    1. glen cullen
      November 15, 2022

      In 2021, the total revenues of Amazon’s activities in the UK were £23.19 billion (2020: £20.63 billion)

    2. a-tracy
      November 15, 2022

      Amazon paid no tax? Really?
      No
      Employers’ NI, Class 1A insurance
      UK VAT,
      UK statutory sick pay and sick absence holiday pay,
      UK business rates,
      Fuel taxes, road taxes,
      No UK insurances and insurance taxes

      The world needs to come together and agree on turnover in each country has to be considered that countries turnover and corporation tax paid accordingly, the only offsets from R&D and investment in that Country the same as any UK business. Why not?

      1. Stephen Reay
        November 15, 2022

        I did say specifically no tax on profits. See the guardian.

        1. a-tracy
          November 16, 2022

          Apologies, you did.

    3. Lindsay McDougall
      November 15, 2022

      Your tax man’s behaviour can be explained by Parkinson’s law “Work expands to fill the time available”.

  13. Michelle
    November 15, 2022

    Labour were ousted and to date remain ousted because of mass immigration, which likely figured more than their handling of economy, if not then most certainly equal to it. It was the prime reason behind the historical red wall fall, which of course Cons. have wasted.
    I see we are now paying more protection money to France (for that is what it looks like to me, one big racket) to stop the boats.
    When they decide to come back for more will be anyone’s guess. Still doing the sensible thing and the thing that will certainly work must not be attempted for fear of upsetting all the usual groups who now clearly run everything.
    So a sticking plaster approach which is going to cost us all a lot more in the long run. So much for financial prudence.

    So, tax away Sunak & Hunt at the moment we are captive and held to ransom. However, I will warn, I don’t think I’ve ever known a time when so many, including those who are usually Apolitical, have just about had enough of being milked for others benefit, and the never ending stream of invitations to others to come and gradually inch us out.

  14. Cuibono
    November 15, 2022

    Daily Mail today..
    Recordings of apparent collaboration between French navy and our very own Border Farce!
    And all the while m. le président and our Home Sec signing very flowery looking scrolls in a very showy manner. Trying to look convincing?
    What a load of utter twaddle and bunkum!

    1. Cuibono
      November 15, 2022

      *sorry…not the pres but the French Home Sec equivalent!

    2. beresford
      November 15, 2022

      Ms Bouchart, mayor of Calais, has once more pointed out that the issue will not be resolved until the British are prepared to become less welcoming to the migrants. Of course the denizens of Westminster have a finger stuck in each ear as they chant ‘Nah nah nah, not listening’.

  15. Shirley M
    November 15, 2022

    Sir John, your penultimate paragraph, re. energy and food sources is the height of good sense, responsibility, and care for the country. Which is why I would lay good money on us getting none of your suggestions!

    This governments ‘help’ for our country is always downwards! Other nationalities and countries need our money and our help more (or so it appears).

  16. Sea_Warrior
    November 15, 2022

    But Sunak and Hunt will still borrow to give away to foreigners. In unrelated news, Hampshire and Kent county councils have warned of their extreme budgetary pressures.

  17. Roy Grainger
    November 15, 2022

    I’m afraid the only lasting impact of the Truss budget is that it has rendered talk of “growth” and “tax cuts” entirely toxic and the current government simply won’t dare to even mention them let alone implement them. We are in a position now where Conservative and Labour economic policies are entirely aligned (big tax and spend, Net Zero etc.) but Labour would have far more scope to introduce “unpopular” policies within this overall policy.

    Take the NHS. Not a single person in government would dare say that the NHS is not the envy of the world because they are simply scared of the media backlash. However recently the Shadow Secretary of Health Wes Streeting said exactly that and it didn’t cause a ripple. He also said that the NHS needs private sector involvement – again something no government member would dare say. I conclude if you want NHS reform to improve the service you are far more likely to get it under Labour.

    One cost saving you didn’t mention would be to stop paying France to handle the migrant issue because it is a waste of money that will have no impact whatsoever on the problem.

    1. Ed M
      November 16, 2022

      Ms Truss shows that if you want to implement Tax Cuts on a big scale then:

      1) You need a strong leader to do so (Liz Truss is way too incompetent in general for such an important position – so we need to figure out how to get better MPs into Parliament – pay senior politicians more like in countries such as Singapore, Switzerland and more)
      And part of 1):
      2) You need a proper plan
      3) You can’t do it over-night
      4) You need to be able to carefully articulate what you’re doing

  18. Philip P.
    November 15, 2022

    Sir John, you say ‘a fractious and unhappy party is in no mood for tax rises nor for spending cuts’. I’d like to believe you’re right, but let’s first see what your parliamentary colleagues do on Thursday. I take there will be a vote on the budget as there was last month on Truss’s mini-budget.

  19. Donna
    November 15, 2022

    Stanley Johnson, on TalkTV let the cat out of the bag: The UN plan is for the world’s nations to divvy-up “the carbon budget.” Carbon production will then be divvied-up across economic sectors in each country. And, if some of us are told “you can’t get on a plane, that’s OK” ……. according to Stanley Johnson. Mr Johnson says that is THE NATIONAL PLAN.

    The National Plan is to stop you from flying. (It won’t stop the “Elite” of course).

    Perhaps Sir John could tell us when this National Plan was put to the British people in a General Election and where we can find it on the Government’s website, since it couldn’t possibly be a secret, deliberately kept from the British people.

    Looks like “the conspiracy theorists” are going to be proven right …… again.

    1. Lifelogic
      November 15, 2022

      +1

  20. Javelin
    November 15, 2022

    What happens when a Government bankrupt it’s citizens by making them pay more tax than can afford?

    All this extra money every month we are paying. Where does the Government think it will come from? Do they think citizens can borrow money to pay for their bills like they do?

    1. Javelin
      November 15, 2022

      When taxes are 1/10 of the economy it’s ok. But as soon as they approach 5/10 of the economy all the balance slips into recession and it becomes more and more difficult to get out the hole. The only way out the hole is to create ever greater growth rates. At some point the downward trend requires unattainable growth rates to reach escape velocity. Taxes have created a fiscal black hole from which the economy cannot escape.

    2. glen cullen
      November 15, 2022

      Robinhood was created to counter the taxes of Sheriff of Nottingham
      We need a champion to counter the taxes of Sunak of Richmond

    3. a-tracy
      November 15, 2022

      They should look at middle-class debt and credit cards before they thwack them so hard they decide a lower-paid job actually gives their families more for less responsibility and hours. I know people calculating this at the moment.

  21. , George Brooks.
    November 15, 2022

    All that you have set out is absolutely right Sir John, but I have little confidence in Jeremy Hunt understanding it. Rishi fell under the spell of the Treasury but has been showing signs of understanding the bigger picture now that he has the top job.

    We had by far the best Chancellor in place during the last few weeks of Boris’s premiership, Nadim Zahawi, a numbers man to his fingertips. It was a Truss mistake to replace him, and he would have presented the ‘growth’ budget so that everyone would have understood it and accepted it.

    That is water under the bridge, and I am not looking forward to Thursday.

  22. Javelin
    November 15, 2022

    Ten years ago Europe had 30% of the worlds wealth. Today it has dropped to 22%. That drop of 8% of the worlds wealth is matched by China growing by 9% of the worlds wealth to 18% total.

    So what happens when Europe allows 27% of its wealth in the past decade to flue to China and the bond markets look at your Government asking to borrow a 10 year bond.

    The bond markets take one look at the bond issue and think the tax payers can’t afford that and push the interest rate up to cover the risk.

    1. Original Richard
      November 15, 2022

      Javelin :

      I have no issue with Europe’s percentage of the world’s wealth decreasing as long as we are not bankrupted in the process through unilateral Net Zero or European culture, laws and way of life being exterminated through mass immigration, both of which are being forcefully driven forwards by the UN.

  23. Richard1
    November 15, 2022

    The big test will be hs2 (not mentioned here – presumably an oversight). The case for hs2 has been comprehensively debunked and no coherent defence of it has been offered. It is a quintessential blob policy. If it isn’t chopped it means the govt are raising taxes and borrowing to pay for a useless vanity project. The signal given on this one is immensely important.

    Quangos offer a huge potential for savings. Apparently there is one which wants to ‘de-colonise’ (it’s word) mathematics! The response should be to abolish that quango immediately and make all its staff redundant. Then consider whether it did anything useful (probably not) and if so allocate its useful task(s) to a civil servant answerable to a minister. We hear the PRA is blocking the abolition of solvency II. Abolish it therefore and give its tasks to a cheaper and smaller group of civil servants answerable to a minister who answers to parliament. There must be hundreds of such bodies, and billions to be saved. At a time of high vacancies now is the time to move some of these useless and obstructive public sector bureaucrats into useful jobs in the private sector.

    It will indeed be a surprise to see much or maybe any of what Sir John proposes in the statement on Thursday.

  24. Narrow Shoulders
    November 15, 2022

    Budgets to beat recessions require money to be released.

    That can be in the form of tax cuts or spending but increasing taxes while cutting spending will not avoid a recession.

    This budget will deepen the oncoming recession as “the markets” have deemed us a poor risk and need to be pandered to. Therefore the cut will all be political. Increase in living wage of 10% – who else is getting a 10% pay rise apart from striking public sector workers and benefit recipients and pensioners. The middle will once again suffer as the differential – the reason they strive – is removed.

    Top rate taxpayers will find ways of reducing their earnings except those on the margins who need the money to pay for the lifestyles they have rightfully curated with their earnings. The rest of us will wither on the vine.

    The Truss and Kwarteng budget was a breath of fresh air. Shame that the Conservative Party could not support it.

    1. rose
      November 15, 2022

      Narrow Shoulders, I am still mystified why the Conservative Parliamentary Party were too cowardly to support the 40p top rate which had pertained from 1997-2010 under the Blair Brown regime, and yet thought they could defend the Sunaks and Infosys.

  25. Mike Wilson
    November 15, 2022

    Mr. Redwood, why is the government about to do the opposite of what you suggest?

    1. glen cullen
      November 15, 2022

      Thats easy – because the parlimentary tories are in fact ‘blue labour’ controlled by the EU & UN
      Why else would they be anti-growth and anti-low taxes

  26. James
    November 15, 2022

    It must be great seeing things always from the back benches, knowing all the moves, the movers and the shakers, having all the jargon and giving advice like it was confetti but never to be in the firing line. Wow I am long retired now but wish that in my day I could have had a job like that. Wow!

    1. a-tracy
      November 15, 2022

      I’m sure JR would like nothing more than to replace Mr Hunt, James, if invited to implement his plan.

  27. G
    November 15, 2022

    Good analysis and common sense advice as usual.

    Almost certain that the exact opposite to actually happen.

    Great….

  28. glen cullen
    November 15, 2022

    No mention of HS2, the cost of parliament revamp, the cost of decarbonisation of public buildings, the cost of migration, reducing the subsidies to the renewable sector, taxing EVs, stopping funds we send to the EU & foreign aid etc
    No …this Autumn Statement will be about higher taxes and lower growth – new labour in all but name

  29. turboterrier
    November 15, 2022

    Honest to God its time for the government to resign and end these death by a thousand cuts policies.
    It has been reported that on Armistice Day radio traffic between French Naval vessels and our Border Force aranginging for the dingies they were escorting in their waters would be available for transfer when BF boats are ready to receive them.
    Everything about this government is contaminated with lies and dodgy decisions. The classic example is who actually appointed Hunt to Chancellor?
    The deck has played out and its time to walk away from the table. The party have gambled on all the wrong hands and have lost everything, especially trust and respect. ITS OVER….

  30. No Longer Anonymous
    November 15, 2022

    Waste of time.

    This country is now under the full control of globalists and Blairist institutions.

    A red wall landslide has revealed that the Tory Party and particularly, its right wing is a total and utter irrelevance. Worse than useless, a cover for a putsch giving older people the impression that the same characters are still around and nothing has changed.

    The only things we should be discussing now are:

    – why we need a political ‘industry’ anymore

    – a review of political ‘industry’ perks, pensions, pay and conditions of service, seeing as the private sector has been *modernised* and defined benefit/index linked pensions have been abolished.

  31. William Long
    November 15, 2022

    Sadly there is no chance of any of this coming to pass. We have already seen that Sunak is in total thrall to the Brown directed OBR loving Treasury, and Hunt has not shown any sign of disagreeing with him, indeed he was chosen by Truss for being known to have these leanings. Is it too much to hope, that you, and those who think along the same lines as you, will speak, and what is more, vote accordingly? The Country really does need to know that there is a sensible and considered alternative to Tax and Austerity.

  32. John McDonald
    November 15, 2022

    Sir John, it is hard to see why the government does not follow your advice, unless it is not what the Globalists want.
    Even net CO2 reduction is put aside when it supports a reason to be a more independent self-governing Nation.

  33. Bloke
    November 15, 2022

    An increasing number of people in parliament and in the population seem to favour acting in opposition to that which is in our nation’s well being. Self-harm is an unhealthy way of living.

  34. IanT
    November 15, 2022

    There are some very sensible ideas here Sir John – unfortunately, I don’t expect to see any on them on Thursday.

  35. glen cullen
    November 15, 2022

    Not mentioned much but this is a disgrace, unemployment is now 1.2 million, its especially significant when top businesses, the public sector and politicians proclaim that we need more immigration
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment

  36. Berkshire Alan
    November 15, 2022

    All sounds sensible John, but sadly given the past record of the two people who are now in charge, it is unlikely to happen.
    They will continue to blame all of the problems on Truss’s 6 weeks, forgetting that Sunak had 2 years in control of the Countries finances, and in total the Conservatives have had 12 years.
    Afraid we are in this mess due to having a useless Prime Minister for much of that time, first Cameron, then May.
    Good grief even spreadsheet Philip Hammond has been made to look good by comparison, such is the mess we are all now in.
    It would seem anyone with any self belief, drive, a strong work ethic, and ambition will likely to be hammered once again.

  37. Cuibono
    November 15, 2022

    I hear that the PM pledged/gave away £16.3 bn at the Cop summit.
    What on EARTH are the tories playing at?

    1. Berkshire Alan
      November 15, 2022

      Yup

      Every time they go abroad they give away more tax payers money.
      Been happening for years, with all Prime Ministers no matter what Party, they think it makes them look good !!!!
      They say we are in trouble because of £32 Billion, looks like our trouble has just increased by another 50%
      Taxpayers to be robbed yet again for their grandstanding on a big stage
      People who really care give up their own time and money, not someone else’s. !

      1. Cuibono
        November 15, 2022

        +1

  38. Mickey Taking
    November 15, 2022

    That would be a non-stop service? However you need to remember the 12 coach set would be required for a totally different route going west. It is not always what you think.

  39. Ian B
    November 15, 2022

    From the MsM
    The French stock market is now worth $2.823 trillion (£2.386 trillion), narrowly edging out the UK at $2.821 trillion (£2.384 trillion). Bank of England policymaker, blamed Brexit for the loss.
    No, the loss is due to inept Government that spends more time trashing the UK than the Bank of England does. Taking orders from the OBR that haven’t yet got out of the playpen and got anything right, you would think that getting constantly wrong they would like childeren learn from their mistakes. You would also think if Government could grasp their purpose and job it would lead them to get rid of constant failures and them their selves learn the value of the taxpayers earnings.
    “Its the economy Stupid” – no economy equals no tax revenue.

  40. Geoffrey Berg
    November 15, 2022

    An excellent article by John Redwood here.
    The place where I would diverge a bit is that I think the budget should aim to start a systemic shift from public spending, now swollen at £38,000 per household each year (whereby government spends people’e money inefficiently on what government wants) to private spending(where people spend more of their money on what they themselves actually want) by cutting inessential or the most inefficient public spending and lowering taxes.
    As for the likely (leaked by the Chancellor himself) strategy of the Budget, a government would struggle to get away with it just upon coming to power when they could blame their predecessors but after 12 years in power the only thing ordinary people would blame for such misery is the governing party itself.
    Just as Conservative M.P.s reversed Truss’ mini-budget(when actually they should just have amended it with some reductions in public spending) and deposed Truss they should now tell Sunak they will reverse his rumoured budget (this time with every justification) by deposing Sunak well before the British people do so.

  41. Pauline
    November 15, 2022

    Genuinely hilarious. You want to make the same mistakes Truss made, but to explain them a bit slower, like a redfaced Brit talking to a waiter in a bar on the Costa del Sol. You really don’t do reality, do you

  42. formula57
    November 15, 2022

    “It would also be quite a surprise. “. Agreed, rather we will have the Sunak Slump.

  43. ukretired123
    November 15, 2022

    The penny has dropped that the cupboard is bare for many now as witnessed here down on the ground e.g. fewer crowds in shops and diy large stores, some deserted roads in rural areas, much discounting of large ticket items less passengers on transport and poor car sales. Many good time businesses and chains are going to the wall. Even hotels desperately turning into dingy destinations instead of bona fide normal clientele and guests.
    Jet setting Sunak and his fellow travellers in the metropolitan bubble don’t understand this as Liz Truss certainly did and now we await his fairy tale economy that will be his legacy sans money trees and the golden geese laying economic eggs generating the wealth.
    Anything provided “free, as in free beer” is open to abuse such as NHS and Public Services. Nothing is free but costs taxpayers and is now impoveRishing us Rishi!

    1. Mark B
      November 15, 2022

      Don’t you get the feeling that whole country is turning into one big Sink-Estate ?

  44. Bert Young
    November 15, 2022

    The present is not always transparent to the past although international affairs are still rocking the boat . What really matters is having the right skills in place at the right time . Johnson and Truss were huge mistakes and stability has to be restored . This country has to regain its prestige .

    1. turboterrier
      November 15, 2022

      Bert Young
      Regain it’s prestige?
      Sorry mate you have got it all wrong.
      We have had none for years.
      The country is in a big enough hole and still they keep digging. Pathetic.

  45. Atlas
    November 15, 2022

    Agreed, Sir John, thrice over.

    At this rate Sunak and Hunt are going to lead the Conservative Party to electoral oblivion. I hope those that engineered this take-over are pleased with themselves. Far from being ‘Grown Ups’ they have acted like 1st year economic students who have read a well out of date Economics text-book from the 1920s.

  46. Jeff Palin
    November 15, 2022

    Got everything right except stop spending on illegal immigrants

  47. agricola
    November 15, 2022

    While I agree with you, I am not sure the present incumbents get it. It is a matter of philosophy, is the pot half full or half empty.

    I want to see government creating a dynamic entrepreneurial seed bed of business activity, with heavy applications of weed killer and the hoe in the public sector. I do not accept that an NHS with 43% none medical employees is not ripe for pollarding and the money saved put into medical activity. Equally in some areas the medical service could be more productive. Always remember, the public sector is a burden on the productive sector and should be kept within bounds.

    What does a quango do apart from shift blame from a ministry to the unidentifiable. Responsibility for whatever it is they do should be brought back into the ministry while disbanding whatever it is they have created, along with the bill for it.

    Within the BOE, OBR, and the Treasury you have essentially three sets of bean counters conducting autopsies. None of them could be accused of creating wealth, they would not be where they are if they had such talent. They are therefore in no position to know how to provide the best playing field to allow wealth creators to flourish. I would add that there are few in the HOC who know either. The business of political lawyers, which the majority of HOC members are, is to curb the excesses and create fairness in society.

    I will judge Thursdays budget on it’s creativity or it’s adherence to globalist/socialist thinking. The creative in the electorate will do much the same, and there in lies the destiny of the conservative party. Get it wrong and it is Hasta Todos.

  48. Delphine Gray-Fisk
    November 15, 2022

    Wonderful – spot on!

    We wisher you were Chancellor …..

  49. THUTCH
    November 15, 2022

    ‘Remove the 16 hours rule for working whilst on benefit’ – this only applies to job seekers allowance (JSA). Call me old fashioned, but if you’re working 16+ hours per week you’re not unemployed and shouldn’t get JSA.
    There is no 16 hours rule for thise on UC. The issue here is the taper which is still set at a ridiculous 55% – actively discouraging people from working harder. At a time when we have >1m vacancies and labour shortages everywhere, this is not a good outcome.
    Also mad is the pensions lifetime allowance and its interaction withth annual allowance. This is causing skilled surgeons and senior consultants to retire early or reduce their hours. Again, not a good outcome when you have a waiting list of >7m and growing.

  50. Enough Already
    November 15, 2022

    Sunak and Hunt will be locking in Tory electoral annihilation with the Autumn Statement.

  51. Stephen Reay
    November 15, 2022

    It’s the market’s that run this country not the government.

    1. Hat man
      November 15, 2022

      Sort of right, Stephen. I’d say, it’s more those who influence the markets, such as mega-investors Black Rock and Vanguard. I don’t think ‘the market’ ever catches them by surprise!

      But our host must of course continue to believe in free market forces, as in the textbooks. That’s a mainstay of traditional conservatism, and the theory no doubt served very well back in the days of Gladstone and Disraeli. Where we are now, the government is the plaything of corporate lobbies and institutional vested interests where the market plays very little role, it seems to me. Look at the out-of-control state spending on the semi-privatised NHS, and its current abject failure to address the urgent health needs of the country. And that’s even before we get on to PPE and all the corruption under cover of Covid. There are just more private snouts in the trough, and the waiting lists lengthen.

  52. Jon Marcus
    November 15, 2022

    Having read Sir John’s diary for a number of years, it is a pity Tory leaders did not do so and appoint him Chancellor. If he had been in that position the country would not be in the financial mess it is in now.
    I can’t see the Conservatives winning the next election with its present economic policies.

    1. Shirley M
      November 15, 2022

      Sir John would never qualify. He would work in the UK’s interests and that appears to be an anathema to this government! Has Braverman rolled over into the expected ‘yes sir, no sir, 3 bags full sir’ mode yet. I think she may have, having agreed to give France even more money for doing nothing helpful and failing to tackle the core problem of exceedingly generous incentives given by the government to entice the illegals.

  53. Cuibono
    November 15, 2022

    Mass immigration = destroy the nation state.
    = easier to put globalist policies in place!

    1. Original Richard
      November 15, 2022

      Cuibono :

      Net Zero = Destroy the nation’s economy and energy security and decrease independence = Easier to put globalist policies in place

  54. David Paine
    November 15, 2022

    Hope the Government take heed of your advice.
    But why has the PM committed £16 billion for COP? Madness given that is over a quarter the way to finding the £60 billion black hole we are supposed to be filling. I bitterly resent virtue-signalling politicians putting their hands in my pockets in order to polish their credentials on the world stage.

    1. glen cullen
      November 15, 2022

      So thats why the budget on Thursday is about tax …its to fund the rest of the world

  55. Barbara
    November 15, 2022

    Sunak is the first (former employee of ed) Goldman Sachs PM and Hunt is a fully paid-up globalist. So we will have what they believe in: punitive ever-higher taxes, a much bigger state, more eco lunacy, more top-down authoritarian control, WEF pet projects implemented and what the public wants ignored, the multinational corporations in charge calling the shots. Your suggestions will not happen, sadly.

  56. Iain Gill
    November 15, 2022

    at some point a Conservative MP has got to resign the party and point out the government is nothing like a Conservative government ?

    there is going to be electoral wipeout

    the country is in serious trouble

  57. a-tracy
    November 15, 2022

    “The UK must act over poverty, housing and equal rights,” says UN body.

    These UN bodies are becoming a joke now; we are importing poverty thousands of people who arrive with nothing. Why should we be expected to level them up with people putting 40 years of their life into the UK economy? No one levelled up my Mum and Dad; they were expected to get on and earn their own keep.

    302 recommendations and they busy body themselves with the UK! unbelievable when a 22-year-old died in Tehran for improperly wearing her hijab, TWENTY TWO! What do the mothers and sisters of these clerics say? For goodness sakes we are told today “state officials signed a letter calling for anti-hijab activists to receive severe punishment, and the first protester receives a death sentence.” 27 years of age. The UN need to concentrate their efforts on the true atrocities.

  58. glen cullen
    November 15, 2022

    I understand that some Secretary’s of State, Ministers and Backbenches are planning to attend the ‘World Cup’ at the taxpayers expense …there isn’t no justification for their attendance, it’s a game of football – let them fund it themselves

  59. Lindsay McDougall
    November 15, 2022

    Well said but I expect you’re baying at the moon. given the leaks emerging from the Sunak/Hunt axis. The front page of i newspaper summarises the Starmer/Reeves offer – raise taxes on multi-nationals and non-doms, replace energy subsidies by home insulation grants, reduce the standard income tax rate to 19%. This is a more attractive offer than the Sunak/Hunt offer, so as things stand I shall be voting for the Reform Party. You have a year to turn Tory policy round, otherwise my defection will be final.

    1. a-tracy
      November 16, 2022

      Housing associations and councils were already given home insulation grants; how many of them didn’t do the work? These Housing associations spend more on their own staff and pensions ‘best employers in the Country’ awards by the dozen but have mouldy; none insulated homes. This is another area that needs a full investigation by Gove. They bought houses for £7000 from Councils and promised to spend £30bn on them and haven’t. Popping £10m into their own pensions over and over again. 1000 homes sold, no new homes built? Where did all the money go? All homes built after 1980, I think it was, were built with cavity walls and roof insulation.

  60. Diane
    November 15, 2022

    Am I dreaming or is the headline in The Guardian today and the content a wind up or have other nations been presented with this kind of claptrap. If it’s not claptrap then can we please have our government issue a response telling the public what we are to make of this. The U N Human Rights Council it seems is on to us after its periodic review – “The UK must act over its housing, food security and equal rights, says UN body”

    1. a-tracy
      November 16, 2022

      Its a wind-up Diane, and its time our representatives fought back and actually stood up for us.

  61. Bryan Harris
    November 15, 2022

    Nice ideas, but nobody is likely to be listening — they’ve already decided the way it is going to be. Salvation of our economy and a better life for those of us that have already suffered years of HMG mismanagement is not part of their agenda.

  62. glen cullen
    November 15, 2022

    GB News – The French Navy call UK Border Force and then hand over the escort duty of a small boats to enable them to arrive in UK shores
    UK Border Force complicit, Home Office complicit, Government complicit, Tory Parliamentary Party complicit ….the Conservatives are the enemy of the british peoples

    1. Diane
      November 16, 2022

      I think we knew this all along Glen – I’ve just seen a report on Breitbart referring to messages between both parties discovered and reported on ( article 15/11 “UK Border Force caught red handed taking Channel migrants from French” )

  63. MFD
    November 15, 2022

    When is Ukraine going to get the invoice for the arms and rockets we set them? It should be used to force them to the table. I’m sure Biden Junior will help them, considering the millions of dollars hes made from the scrap(fight)!

  64. SimonR
    November 15, 2022

    Dear Sir John,

    We should keep an open mind about what Hunt and Sunak’s budget will bring. A lot of what’s being bandied about strikes me as possible expectations management.

    However, if the budget is severely anti-growth, there is a case for an ‘independent budget’ to be worked on by a people like you, released to the press, in the same way that there was an ‘independent SAGE’ who got a lot of traction with their recommendations during COVID-19.

    Regards,
    SR

  65. acorn
    November 15, 2022

    India for one, has taken action to stop pension funds trading on Broker credit, following the mess the deregulated Casino banking UK got into. Insurance companies, have been told by the regulator that they can no longer cut deals with brokers for trading in government securities. According to a new directive by The Indian Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA), buying and selling of sovereign securities can only happen on the anonymous trading screen operated by the Indian Central Bank. Imagine the UK having Treasury regulators as smart as India.

    BTW. India also wants to replace the UK on the UN Security Council. A task our muppet politicians have recently made much easier for them.

    1. a-tracy
      November 16, 2022

      Why do they want to replace the UK acorn and not Russia? It is Russia breaking all the UN peace treaties, isn’t it?

      The permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (also known as the Permanent Five, Big Five, or P5) are the five sovereign states to whom the UN Charter of 1945 grants a permanent seat on the UN Security Council: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

      The top 10 providers of assessed contributions to United Nations peacekeeping operations for 2020-2021 are:

      United States (27.89%)
      China (15.21%)
      Japan (8.56%)
      Germany (6.09%)
      United Kingdom (5.79%)
      France (5.61%)
      Italy (3.30%)
      Russian Federation (3.04%)
      Canada (2.73%)
      Republic of Korea (2.26%)

      Funny but I didn’t notice Russia in the top 10?

      1. a-tracy
        November 16, 2022

        Whoops I meant, I didn’t notice India in the top 10.

  66. Original Richard
    November 15, 2022

    “We should not accept the need to provide more overseas aid for net zero or any other purpose other than a new disaster where we want to help generously and energetically.”

    Far more importantly we should be cancelling Net Zero for the UK. The Net Zero Strategy is economic and security suicide :

    Net Zero = Meagre, expensive and intermittent energy to destroy our economy.

    Net Zero = No energy security as 85% of wind turbine parts and 100% of solar panels plus 60% or more of the raw materials for batteries, motors and generators are (coal-fired) Chinese supplied.

    Net Zero = Off-shoring of important and strategic industries to weaken our economic, industrial and military capabilities.

    All part of the UN plan.

  67. Original Richard
    November 15, 2022

    “The Treasury should stop Councils borrowing to buy up property.”
    What about the Treasury stopping Councils loaning money for Net Zero projects such as the £655m lost by a council to a solar energy company?

    In fact shouldn’t the Treasury stop any council making any commercial loans? Surely this is not why councils exist?

    “They can reduce the central London office estate to reflect more home working and transfers out of London.”

    Yes, and stop the mass immigration which is causing shortages of not only housing but also healthcare, schooling (especially in Kent) and infrastructure (roads, water supply, sewage etc.)

  68. Original Richard
    November 15, 2022

    Mr. Sunak says that his top priority is dealing with illegal immigration, which if successful would certainly help with reducing our spending and consequently the depth of our recession.

    What about stopping the pull factors of 4 star hotels, £40/week pocket money and the freedom to roam our streets so they can either work illegally or take part in nefarious activities or simply abscond or both?

    Why can these illegals, who are criminals for they have paid people smugglers to get them illegally into the UK, not be locked up securely as they should be, in migrant camps as seen elsewhere in Europe?

    If the myriad charities who support these criminals, even to the extent of giving out advice over in France as to how to bamboozle the Home Office asylum seeker officers, or lie in wait to pick them up off the Kent beaches, or use taxpayer funds through the Cabinet Office/Home Office to take the Government to court over its Rwanda plan, are unhappy with such a detention then allow them to provide bail for these illegal migrants to be able to leave the camps and find their own accommodation.

    The bail amount should be sufficiently high to ensure that either the illegal migrant attends the Home Office requests for processing or it de-funds these charities who are basically aiding and abetting the illegal migration across our borders.

  69. rose
    November 15, 2022

    “but one with forecasts, numbers and sensible controls over spending and borrowing which in his haste Kwasi left out.”

    “It was a tragedy Liz did not present a rounded and costed Growth Plan within an economic framework that would have worked as some proposed.”

    There had been unrelenting pressure from the media and opposition to produce a statement, even before Miss Truss and Mr Kwarteng had been appointed. Hence the rush. I assumed there were parts 2 and 3 to come: spending and supply side reforms. But they were not allowed time to do produce them. Obviously the paperwork was missing because the Treasury was hostile and the OBR could not be relied on. No danger of that this time round. The Treasury and the Bank seem only too keen to oblige which should worry everyone.

    ***************************************************************

    It seems to me the agreement with the French is not the right one. It never is. The only agreement we want with the French, and I wouldn’t mind paying for this one, is to take back the illegal immigrants who have embarked from France masquerading as refugees. They should be sent straight back before they have landed. No need to discriminate between Albanians on the one hand, and Africans and Asians on the other – they are all illegal immigrants and none need be brought to land to be “processed”.

    *************************************************************************************

    Another economy could be made, though not so great, by ceasing to prosecute refuseniks of the BBC tax.

    ******************************************************************************************

    A fine economy would be to throw the EU out of N Ireland, and its impoverishing bureaucracy with it. More revenue would then come in from the freed economy.

  70. Your comment is awaiting moderation
    November 16, 2022

    @JR
    Why do I get the feeling that the Tory leadership will do the opposite of what you suggest?

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