The Chief Secretary to the Treasury’s Replies to my Written Parliamentary Questions

I have confirmation that on Treasury/OBR forecasts debt interest will fall substantially by 2024-5 . They confirm the large increase in tax revenues over the forecast period that they expect. They also confirm that were the economy to grow a bit faster the deficit would fall.

All this reflects their strange definitions, including the capital item of index linking with the revenue item of interest paid. It also reflects a model which regularly exaggerates the deficit when there is bit faster growth, and understates the deficit in slowdown or recession.

It reminds us that the budget strategy revolves around increasing tax revenues to pay for rising expenditure.

 

The has provided the following answer to your written parliamentary question (92043):

Question:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what recent estimate he has made of the amount by which the total paid in interest on state debt will change between this year and 2024-5. (92043)

Tabled on: 21 November 2022

This question was grouped with the following question(s) for answer:

  1. To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what estimate he has made of the potential increase in tax revenue between the 2022-23 and 2027-28 financial years. (92044)
    Tabled on: 21 November 2022
  2. To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, if he will make an estimate of the amount of extra tax revenue that would be received in financial year 2022-23 if the GDP of the UK were to remain at its present level, by comparison with the amount he expects to receive in that year according to present forecasts. (92048)
    Tabled on: 21 November 2022

Answer:
John Glen:

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is the UK Government’s independent official forecaster. The OBR’s most recent forecast was published alongside the Autumn Statement on 17 November 2022.

The OBR forecast that tax receipts will increase from £1.0 trillion in 2022-23 to £1.2 trillion in 2027-28, an increase of £196 billion. Debt interest spending (net of the Asset Purchase Facility) is expected to reach £120.4bn for the financial year 2022-23 and fall by £37.9bn to £82.4bn in 2024-25.

The OBR does not regularly produce analysis of tax revenue according to varying paths of GDP. Previous OBR analysis from January 2022 suggests that raising real GDP growth to 2-3% a year over three years, from a base growth forecast of 1.6% per year for those three years, could provide a benefit to the public finances of £10-40 billion through a range of effects across tax and spending.

The answer was submitted on 29 Nov 2022 at 12:04.

 

 

 

T

108 Comments

  1. Mark B
    December 2, 2022

    Good morning.

    What concerns me, is that any additional revenue will just be gobbled up by the State due to inefficiencies. This would be prevented if the government implemented real cost cutting.

    But with rising prices and people having to cut back, I think this Christmas is going to be a rather austere one for many and forthcoming sales will be a key to what may lay a head. A poorly performing economy will not board well for government tax receipts.

    For once I will not be praying for snow this year. We can’t afford it !

    1. Mike Stallard
      December 2, 2022

      Dead right! No Christmas lights showing in the gloom of our North Cambridgeshire estate this year. But Tescos is full of people shopping.
      The enormous state expenditure must be cut back soon. I suspect that there is a great deal of dead wood in various offices (our removal men confirmed this this week: they do offices for the NHS). The Post Office Union was on LBC last night explaining how faithful postmen and women were being replaced by pensionless and holiday-less and insurance-less agency people because they are cheaper.
      Cut back the real workers, pay yourself a lot more Christmas bonus and have more diversity officers and agency folk. (I am a lifelong Conservative). Two years left…

      1. Mickey Taking
        December 2, 2022

        Lidl and Aldi are into boom time and probably shortages and queues.

      2. turboterrier
        December 2, 2022

        Mike Stallard
        Two years?
        You’ve got more faith then lot of us have. The whole Tory circus will have left town come back of next summer.
        They have put themselves in a totally untenable position.

      3. Thrilled
        December 2, 2022

        Talking about the Post Office ( sort of ) I have only just discovered that you can pay into your bank a/c at the P.O.

        1. Mickey Taking
          December 2, 2022

          you need to get out more.

          1. Thrilled
            December 3, 2022

            It’s a bit like the 350K eligible but not claiming pension credit.
            ” The authorities/gov etc” assume everyone knows what they know.
            If the Cons were better communicators ( to the masses ) they might
            stand a chance, but they aren’t, so they won’t.
            I expect to see a little article in the Express next week.
            Don’t forget your friendly Post Office can do XYZ.

      4. a-tracy
        December 2, 2022

        State expenditure has been cut right back since the October 2022 Half term holiday, that is what is causing a serious slump in November, because we now all depend so much on State spending power.

        People aren’t being replaced when they leave or retire.

        The Post Office is hanging itself. They are showing that a three day per week service isn’t affecting the vast majority of households. Next Day post is no longer guaranteed, post Saturday deliver Thursday if you’re lucky.

        1. Berkshire Alan
          December 2, 2022

          Took 8 days for a second class letter to reach its destination a few weeks ago, cost 68 pence, no wonder people are using e mail when they can. !
          Postmen just hanging themselves by striking, even fewer letters/cards will be sent in the future.

          1. a-tracy
            December 3, 2022

            We have envelopes posted on Friday and Saturday first class regularly every week, the majority used to turn up by the Tuesday. In recent months they are not turning up till Thursday and Friday, we keep a record.

            We are looking at ways to use phone scanners moving forward so that we can stop using the post.

      5. Fedupsoutherner
        December 2, 2022

        Good news Mike. A string of 100 LED lights cost pence to run for 6 hours a day for a month. A bit of Christmas cheer.

        1. Mickey Taking
          December 2, 2022

          Christmas Cheer – -I think a lot of us will need something out of a bottle, while sitting in dim or dark rooms, huddled under a blanket.

      6. Lifelogic
        December 2, 2022

        +1, an excellent piece by Matt Ridley in the Spectator.

        “The Tories’ wind power delusion”

        Not alas just the Tories but SNP, Labour, Libdim, Plaid, Green… they are all bonkers, economically and scientifically illiterate.

    2. Ian Wragg
      December 2, 2022

      I will be praying for snow to expose this ludicrous governments non energy policy.
      Rolling blackouts are the only way to shake these chances up.
      Technical problems in France won’t wash with the voting public.

      1. turboterrier
        December 2, 2022

        Ian Wragg
        So right Ian. For over a decade there have been people not anti turbines but engineers were telling power companies, governments, climate scientists that the road they were following would end up the road to hell.
        I just hope that excuses they are rolling out are seen and reported for what they really are. The exposure to the weather will also be the catalyst for the walls of lies and deceit that surround NZ & CC to come crashing down. Then the blame game will really go into overdrive.
        Bring it on.

      2. Lynn Atkinson
        December 2, 2022

        I’m with you. One cold winter to bury Net Zero is more than worth it!

      3. Ian Wragg
        December 2, 2022

        TodY the first cooler day and demand is almost 41gw.
        Evening peak after 4pm will leave us dangerously exposed. It’s not even real winter yet and we’re struggling.

        1. Mickey Taking
          December 2, 2022

          but available to France if needed?

      4. Lifelogic
        December 2, 2022

        They got all the big things wrong net zero and energy policy especially. It seem even the CMO Chris Whitty now recognises what a disaster the long and net harm lockdowns were. Perhaps he will now look at the ineffective and dangerous vaccines that were coerced into the arms of people (many of whom were at zero risk of Covid) and many have may suffered serious harm. The state are clear 200+ deaths a day almost certainly due to NHS incompetence and net harm vaccines

        1. Hat man
          December 2, 2022

          I don’t think Whitty recognises lockdowns were a bad idea yet. He blames excess mortality on the NHS being overstretching during the ‘pandemic’, so excess mortality and morbidity are for unavoidable health reasons. He will not admit that the policy decision of shutting down much of society (and much of the NHS) was in any way responsible.

          1. Lifelogic
            December 3, 2022

            He actually and appallingly even blamed individuals themselves for not seeking medical care and seems to even have noticed that many in line appointment are inferior to in person ones. What a surprise that is? Over 200 a day excess deaths and many are young people. It should be below average due to Covid taking many people early too. Vaccinating the young especially children was surely criminal in my view.

        2. Lifelogic
          December 3, 2022

          Stats not state.

      5. glen cullen
        December 2, 2022

        While our net-zero laws are taking us to the stone-age I see reports on the BBC that Indonesia are bringing in ‘no sex before marriage’ laws taking them back to the middle-ages …the world is bonkers

    3. Ian B
      December 2, 2022

      @Mark B +1 It does seem odd that the Office for Budget Responsibility – doesn’t reference the responsible accountable and value for money from all taxpayer funded departments. It is only bothered about tax collection meeting the ever increasing waste created by Government.

      To most of us a Budget is checks and balances on both side of the account. That would appear to suggest not only is the OBR always wrong, that the think their job is political and singular only ever predicting one side of the Budgetary column. They have made themselves redundant.

  2. turboterrier
    December 2, 2022

    Their raising tax strategy has no credibility as it has been well proven in the past that higher taxes encourage the higher earners to relocate to more friendly shores.
    A massive impact on our financial situation would be a full frontal attack on the waste within government and at the same time get the benefit receivers back in meaningful employment.
    As fast as they get our money in, it is going out faster in expenditure. You do not need a special office to tell you its totally unsustainable. Couldn’t run a whelk and winkle stall.

    1. Michael McGrath
      December 2, 2022

      TT If they tried to run a whelk AND winkle stall, they’d need a divrsity manager plus fourteen staff

      1. turboterrier
        December 2, 2022

        Michael Migration
        Love it

      2. glen cullen
        December 2, 2022

        What if they wanted to export them to Northern Ireland …the horror, the admin horror

      3. Lifelogic
        December 2, 2022

        Plus a net zero coordinator, health and safety compliance officers, an accountant, book keeper and a few data compliance officers.

        1. glen cullen
          December 2, 2022

          plus an ethics advisor because they can’t think or make judgements for themselves

    2. Lifelogic
      December 2, 2022

      Indeed you can only get so much juice out of a orange they will get less tax not more.

  3. turboterrier
    December 2, 2022

    Albeit a low turnout, the by election result would indicate a lot of tory members will be honing up their skills to prepare for a new life outside Westminster. From their present performances the vast majority have got a fight on their hands to appear credible let alone employable.

    1. Nottingham Lad Himself
      December 2, 2022

      What a tragedy it is, that the country has to be brought to the depths in which it now finds itself for some voters actually to realise what the tories are.

      1. Bloke
        December 2, 2022

        A tragedy is developing, but Conservative Govts usually foresee and prevent such outcomes.
        However too much has been left without remedy for too long. Better people are needed.

      2. MFD
        December 2, 2022

        The problem is there is no alternative – the trash on the left are worse!

        1. John Hatfield
          December 2, 2022

          The alternative is Reform UK.

          1. Jackie
            December 2, 2022

            It would need to be real reform – Oliver Cromwell style

          2. glen cullen
            December 2, 2022

            Reform UK all the way, this new conservative PP is toast

          3. Mickey Taking
            December 2, 2022

            #jackie … a real reform Oliver Cromwell style!
            You mean all the supporters of reform would be chased down and hung, draw and quartered?
            Not much future in it.

      3. IanT
        December 2, 2022

        I think we’d all be delighted if there were a better alternative NLH. Can you suggest one?

      4. Fedupsoutherner
        December 2, 2022

        Martin. A bit like when we had I think it was Foot as Labour PM and we had the Winter of Discontent. Yes, I remember it well.

        1. TickeyMaking
          December 2, 2022

          Winter of Discontent: Nov.’78-Feb.’79
          Michael Foot, Labour leader, Nov.’80-Oct.’83
          ‘Yes, I remember it well’ (sigh)

      5. agricola
        December 2, 2022

        Those Tories who know what Conservatism really is find it equally tragic to be saddled with wet socialists on both sides of the House.

      6. Hop
        December 2, 2022

        NL,
        Correct.

        Javid is off at the next election (presumably hanging about for two years as MP to get extra pay and pension in addition to his next full time job) so despite a candidate for leader a few months ago his conviction as a Tory so strong he is leaving!!! What did he achieve in any ministerial role other than closing detention centres for illegal immigration!

        1. Roy Grainger
          December 2, 2022

          He appointed Andrew Bailey as Governor of the BoE. So it’s good that he’s going after that disastrous decision.

          1. IanT
            December 3, 2022

            Exactly my thought too Roy – and we have to survive eight years of him! 🙁

        2. Donna
          December 2, 2022

          He caused the Care Home crisis by mandating an experimental jab, with a very poor safety record ….. and thereby losing 40,000 experienced Care Workers.

      7. No Longer Anonymous
        December 2, 2022

        What YOU want it seems, NLH.

    2. Philip P.
      December 2, 2022

      Perhaps the most significant point was the continued poor performance of Reform UK, who are clearly not getting across to voters. You would have thought that this would be their moment to forge ahead. Something appears to be wrong with the party organisation.

      1. Nottingham Lad Himself
        December 2, 2022

        They are a bunch of eccentrics with unworkable policies – much like the tories are these days.

        Many people correctly see them as such.

        1. Philip P.
          December 3, 2022

          It would be interesting to see an opinion poll which asked the public whether they’d actually heard of Reform UK, could name their leader, and what their policies are.

      2. John Hatfield
        December 2, 2022

        Or perhaps more to do with media obstruction. The blob can’t allow outsiders in.

        1. John Hatfield
          December 2, 2022

          Also the recent election was in a socialist constituency. Less likely to vote right wing.

          1. TickeyMaking
            December 2, 2022

            Chester constituency
            1910-1992: Conservative MPs
            2010-2015: Conservative MP (sigh)

    3. Mickey Taking
      December 2, 2022

      honing up what skills?

  4. Roy Grainger
    December 2, 2022

    The OBR models are like Prof Ferguson’s models – they know that if their predictions are too pessimistic no-one will complain if things turn out better. But if they are too optimistic then they will be criticised. They are incentivised to predict bad outcomes.

    1. Ian B
      December 2, 2022

      @Roy Grainger – yet they get to take your hard earned money and are above being accoutable

  5. Cuibono
    December 2, 2022

    If all this prediction works how come we find ourselves in our present situation?
    Or did someone say in 2015 “Goody, goody. By 2022 we’ll be spending £6+million per day on hotel accommodation and Goodness knows how much on fuel subsidies.”
    Maybe more time should be spent in the present on solving the govt’s self inflicted catastrophes?

  6. turboterrier
    December 2, 2022

    As this post is basically about money it is a little bit frightening to discover through Government Web sites and Migration Watch and others that the estimated costs of dealing with the diseases being bought over by immigrants and especially the dingy invaders such as Diphtheria, Aids, TB, Hep B & C is being estimated to cost the NHS £1,290m per annum
    What is more disconcerting is that a Government Select Committee in 2003 voiced it concerns about sexual health amongst immigrants.
    Why does this never make the BBC news and generate questions being asked in the house. After all it is the tax payer who is funding all of this.

    1. R.Grange
      December 2, 2022

      O come on, TT, you know perfectly well why this never makes the BBC news or generates questions in the HOC. We’re past that now. The question is what is to be done about government-media information control. XR and all the woke gender activists know how to reach the public, we need to learn from them.

    2. Berkshire Alan.
      December 2, 2022

      Turbo
      Add to your list, additional crime, the alternative economy, slave labour, gang masters, escaping criminals, and the huge cost of trying to resolve such and that is an additional cost onto of your figures, apart from the well documented normal infrastructure costs of a new immigrant, schools, water and power provision,. hospitals, housing etc.
      The Government are simply clueless, or do not care !

      1. Timaction
        December 2, 2022

        …..and still none of these criminals are deported!

    3. Donna
      December 2, 2022

      Because the likes of the BBC (and Socialists, including the Con ones) don’t compute that a NATIONAL Health Service which is paid for by taxpayers and is free at the point of delivery means the provision is for the citizens of the UK ….. not the citizens of the 3rd world.

    4. Fedupsoutherner
      December 2, 2022

      25% of people from Africa have Aids. Many more diseases are prevalent in Asian countries. Just the screening for these diseases is taking valuable resources from an already overstretched NHS. I have noticed even private patients in some parts of the country are facing more lengthy waits now.

    5. The Prangwizard
      December 2, 2022

      Management of our country and protecting us from all manner of imposing ‘invasions’ seems impossible.

      I heard the other day that changes to the use of Manston and administrative improvements there and for wider benefit are impossible without a law change. The idea that use of such an area of land and the buildings on it are frozen by law is disgraceful. The ‘benefit’ is to disperse thousands of illegal and some seemingly deseased occupants around the country into domestic used hotels. This will promote the spread of desease. What kind of governing is that? Who will be punished? Answer – no-one. Only those of us who die.

      Who proposed and who passed such laws, how many hundreds of thousands of such and similar cause our nation to be paralysed against protecting itself and its people? Why are they so rigidly followed and why is it not challenged?

    6. glen cullen
      December 2, 2022

      Fear, they’re in fear of being asked the question, they’re in fear that their answer may not be acceptable …they’re even in fear of proposing to ask those questions themself …the HoC a bunch of cowards (less our host) who keep their heads in the sand and pocket the money. Rather then debating immigration the HoC today are debating ‘Offenders (Day of Release from Detention) Bill: Second Reading’, that tells you about their priority

  7. Shirley M
    December 2, 2022

    Maybe if they stopped giving our money to China and other wealthy countries we would have funds for where it is needed … but China! Of all places. Maybe you’ll donate billions to the slave trade next! I am sure it still happens ‘somewhere’ in the world.

    1. Ian B
      December 2, 2022

      @Shirley M – How else do you expect these countries to fund their space programs and the building of their nuclear arsenals

    2. Lynn Atkinson
      December 2, 2022

      Try Rotherham!

    3. SM
      December 2, 2022

      Who was it who said: “it’s always easy to spend other people’s money”?

  8. Donna
    December 2, 2022

    “could provide a benefit to the public finances of £10-40 billion through a range of effects across tax and spending.”

    Could, but almost certainly won’t. And that’s IF the OBR figures are vaguely in the right ball-park, which they never have been since it was created as a make-work project for lefty economists.

    But anyway, that sum will just about pay for all the costs associated with the 50,000 a year (and rising) criminal migrants the Government is ferrying-in for a life of luxury courtesy of British taxpayers. So there’ll be no improvement to either the debt levels or public services.

    I note the Blu-Green-Socialist CONs got 22.4% of the vote in Chester. I believe it’s when you get below 20% that “the tipping point” really starts to take effect. Squeaky bum time in CCHQ.

  9. formula57
    December 2, 2022

    Whilst “It reminds us that the budget strategy revolves around increasing tax revenues to pay for rising expenditure” just wait for a Starmer-led government when it will all be much the same.

  10. Robert Miller
    December 2, 2022

    I am less concerned about debt interest than about the mis-perception by ministers and the gilts market that national debt is much higher than it is in reality. As JW has so rightly pointed out if intra government debt holdings (ie gilts held by the Bank of England) are taken into account debt as a % of GDP is much much less intimidating than it appears. And further given the slow down in monetary growth inflation prospects are better than many fear.

  11. Ian B
    December 2, 2022

    Off Topic
    From the MsM
    ‘The European Commission’s president said she has had “encouraging” meetings with Rishi Sunak over the Northern Ireland Protocol and is “very confident” a solution can be found. ‘
    “One thing is absolutely clear: Brexit will not become an obstacle on the path of reconciliation in Ireland,” von der Leyen said
    ‘Protecting the all-island economy which has been an EU priority from the very beginning of negotiations’

    Appears to be suggesting the EU aims are for a single State on the Island of Ireland – plebs will do as they are told

  12. Mickey Taking
    December 2, 2022

    I see in the latest by-election where Labour increased their majority in Chester, the Tories downward swing was 16%. Oh dear! I doubt too many Tory MPs will get Christmas cards this year, the excuse being post strikes joining the winter of discontent and the ridulous cost of postage. Being asked at the counter ‘do you want 2nd class or 1st class stamps, or next day delivery?’ when the smile at you conveys the nonsense.
    It is suggested that Saturday deliveries could stop – who will notice the difference?

  13. Aden
    December 2, 2022

    So where’s the number for the pension debts?
    Not reporting the pension debts is misleading.

  14. Narrow Shoulders
    December 2, 2022

    How does an increasing debt incur lower interest charges in this new reality of rising interest rates?

    The premise on which these forecasts was made is false.

    Similarly how does take rise in a recession, even when increasing rates? Your next question to the Chancellor should be Has the OBR referred to trends seen in 2008-2010 when looking at tax income forecasts? As I recall tax take fell off a cliff and caused a huge deficit from which we have not recovered.

  15. acorn
    December 2, 2022

    As Terry Smith said in his book, if you want to know how a company is doing follow the cash. That is difficult to do with UK government legacy accounting systems that vary across the ONS, OBR and Departments; cash and accrual. For instance, https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/ruuo/pusf Shows the net cash requirement to pay “interest payments”.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/mdd8/pusf
    Shows the BoE APF has now gone to being a net payer of interest due to inflation accounting.

  16. Bert Young
    December 2, 2022

    The Treasury has been over-influenced by the OBR and the BoE . Inflation is a considerable problem but using the most gloomy forecasts to tackle it is a heavy cost to the public . As things stand Conservatives have a monumental task to win back support . The result in Chester is more than a warning bell .

  17. Cuibono
    December 2, 2022

    An MP is standing down.
    “So what?”

    1. glen cullen
      December 2, 2022

      Thats a two year fully paid holiday with a big bonus at the end …happy days

  18. agricola
    December 2, 2022

    All rather boring unless you spend your life in a ledger. Where is the the legislation to remove us from the constraints of human rights legislation written at a time when we were dealing with very different problems. There is a strong argument for keeping such legislation within national control, because it can then be speedily amended to suit current circumstances. In the context of the UN and ECHR it is inflexibly set in stone

    Where is the draft rewrite of the seven volume tax code. It has more anomolies than our weather and is hardly the foundation for a dynamic UK going forward. I throw in the removal of EU legislation, long overdue.

    When are we going to get a coherent power generation plan. SMRs are at least five years away. Big atomic is ten years away. In the meantime, steel needs coal as does electricity generation. Electricity generation also needs gas as does heating the country and powering industry. Oil is required for a multitude of reasons. We sit on all three sources in profusion, but I only hear discussion on bringing windmills ashore. What in Gods name goes on round the cabinet table.

    What we have in No10 and No11 Downing St. is a level of thinking that will stiffle investment but expand the black economy.

    Finally and incredibly overdue is the removal of NIP restraints on NI trade and sovereignty, the food for a resurgence of civil war. How stupid is our government not to invoke Art 16. Get it done .

    1. glen cullen
      December 2, 2022

      There isn’t any current or planned proposals to repeal the ECHRs from our statute

  19. glen cullen
    December 2, 2022

    SirJ you’re wasting your time; your experience and expertise is wasted on this government and your own party …they’re just not interested in your views
    You should cross the floor and reshape the reform party into the traditional conservative party that was trusted throughout the land …You’d be surprised just how many would follow you, your country needs you, so step up – ‘’its better to live like tiger for a day then to die like a sheep in a hundred years’’

    1. Fedupsoutherner
      December 2, 2022

      Glen. +100.

      1. Fedupsoutherner
        December 2, 2022

        Any party that seriously tackled immigration and our energy provisions and cancelled net zero would wipe the floor in an election. Trouble is, would we believe them or would we think it was just to get votes and once in forget what they promised like Boris with Brexit?

        1. glen cullen
          December 2, 2022

          It should be made law that the manifesto pledge is enacted within the first month of office …and that its passage though parliament can’t be hindered by the opposite, the Lords or the courts

          1. Sharon
            December 2, 2022

            Trouble is with that idea, Glen ….back page, small print 2019 manifesto- net zero!

          2. glen cullen
            December 3, 2022

            The manifesto pledges should only reflect what can be actually achieve in the first term of parliament …everything else is meaningless forecasts & virtue signalling

    2. Cuibono
      December 2, 2022

      +many
      And they would listen to you (JR) !
      All your knowledge and experience…absolute gold mine.

      1. Lynn Atkinson
        December 2, 2022

        Absolutely agree. Let’s have a real Conservative party. One that includes the heroic DUP so that our commitment to NI is made clear even to the Continental dullards. Not to mention the dullards from the sub-continent.

  20. Bill
    December 2, 2022

    The OBR has a dubious record with its economic forecasts yet the Chief Sec still relies upon their input to provide his answers. Does he not realise how crass this appears? Or does he no longer care about us, nor concern himself about the state of the Nation under his wealth-stripping and sclerotic economic growth policies?
    Having less disposable income thus ensures less to spend and be VAT taxed upon. In turn this reduces demand leading to less production resulting in an increase in factory closures and job losses and therefore a collapse in the annual tax income to the Treasury.
    Consequently, the increase in unemployment and the failures of companies further burdens the existing funding for Government benefits.
    So, we end up having higher unemployment with higher benefit bills providing less and less income for the Treasury. So we get poorer and very probably, even more in debt.
    This problem makes sense to a layman from the back streets of Britain but apparently not to the Chief Sec nor to the OBR so it’s not just a change of Government required but a change of policies and it seems, the change of die-hard Mandarins within Whitehall.

  21. Bill
    December 2, 2022

    The OBR has a dubious record with its economic forecasts yet the Chief Sec still relies upon their input to provide his answers. Does he not realise how crass this appears? Or does he no longer care about us, nor concern himself about the state of the Nation under his wealth-stripping and sclerotic economic growth policies?
    Having less disposable income thus ensures less to spend and be VAT taxed upon. In turn this reduces demand leading to less production resulting in an increase in factory closures and job losses and therefore a collapse in the annual tax income to the Treasury.
    Consequently, the increase in unemployment and the failures of companies further burdens the existing funding for Government benefits.
    So, we end up having higher unemployment with higher benefit bills providing less and less income for the Treasury. So we get poorer and very probably, even more in debt.
    This makes sense to a layman from the back streets of Britain but apparently not to the Chief Sec nor to the OBR so it’s not just a change of Government required but a change of policies and it seems, the change of die-hard Mandarins within Whitehall.

  22. Fedupsoutherner
    December 2, 2022

    With the cost of energy many farmers are going to collapse. They think the British cucumber industry is close to vanishing. What is happening to our country? Its all bad news.

    1. Stephen Reay
      December 2, 2022

      Blame it on Brexit, after all the cons haven’t delivered it yet.

      1. Berkshire Alan
        December 2, 2022

        Stephen
        Indeed the Remainer’s still fighting the battle, frustrating it all and everyone no matter what the cost,.
        Meanwhile the Government have stood still, forgetting that you need to actually do something that is productive to get results.
        Free Ports where are they, Border Control a joke, Northern Ireland a farce and anyones guess, Fishing zero action,
        The list goes on, and on, and on.
        “Take back control” what a farce, more like sit back and look on.

      2. Fedupsoutherner
        December 2, 2022

        Stephen. I can tell you I’ve Never blamed it on Brexit. I blame it on Brexit. I don’t consider we have a Brexit. You are obviously one of the newer contributors to this diary. I blame it on Tory ministers who don’t understand energy supplies and science.

        1. Fedupsoutherner
          December 2, 2022

          Should read I blame it on NO Brexit

      3. Bill Mayes
        December 3, 2022

        What Brexit? We are still awaiting the decapitation of EU Laws, rules and regs promised by he, who was to, “get Brexit done”. I feel its us, the true leavers, who have been done here.

    2. Jackie
      December 2, 2022

      Better ask Rees-mogg, a couple if years ago he promised the people would have cheaper food, cheaper clothes and cheaper footwear. I suppose all of this was to be with the 350 million extra pw we were also promised for the NHS

      1. Mickey Taking
        December 2, 2022

        did he mention jam tomorrow?

      2. rose
        December 3, 2022

        Since then the biggest energy exporter has invaded the biggest food exporter.

    3. Sharon
      December 2, 2022

      Interestingly, like the Netherlands, some of our farmers have been approached by the government to sell off their farms. I don’t know the outcome, whether they agreed to or not.

  23. glen cullen
    December 2, 2022

    Total Oil pulls £100 Million North Sea Drilling Investment After Windfall Tax
    https://order-order.com/2022/12/02/total-pulls-100-million-north-sea-drilling-investment-after-windfall-tax/

    1. Lynn Atkinson
      December 2, 2022

      What a surprise! Nr 10 and 11 will be ‘baffled’. Me – not baffled.

    2. Fedupsoutherner
      December 3, 2022

      Glen. It’s a very concerning time. Why doesn’t this government look at history? Reportedly it repeats itself. A bit like a broken record.

  24. a-tracy
    December 2, 2022

    2007/08 £45bn 2.9% of GDP public sector net borrowing (exc. public sector banks).
    2007/08 £543.5bn 34% of GDP public sector net debt (central gov gross debt interest payments).

    2019/20 £57.2bn 2.6% of GDP public sector net borrowing
    2019/20 £1797.7bn 84% public sector net debt

    From 2008 to 2019 (11 years) the £1254.2bn extra public sector net debt what is the breakdown of what that was spent on and is it still outstanding after spending (was it for mortgages or bank shares)?

    I thought a lot of that the extra borrowing spent on bailing out several banks were repaid? Barclays didn’t take a bailout nor the HSBC did they. Lloyds paid back in full didn’t they?

    Is this debt what was used to give people 2% mortgage rates after the banking crash of 2008 and hold it there for 14 years?

    Covid years was another killer to the debt figures.
    2021/22 233.9bn 10.3% public sector net borrowing
    2021/22 £2502.9 public sector net debt

    An extra £705.2bn net debt added in just two covid years.

    Back in 2000 we owed £307bn

  25. Lindsay McDougall
    December 4, 2022

    Have the Treasury and the OBR heard of the Laffer curve effect?

    During the 1980s the top rate of income tax was reduced from 80% (98% on ‘unearned’ income) to 60% and then to 40%. The yield from the top income tax band went UP.

    After 2010, at LibDem insistence, CGT was raised from 18% to 29%. The yield from CGT went DOWN.

    On each toll road, there is an optimum (revenue maximising) set of toll rates, with reduced revenue if the toll is higher or lower than optimum.

    Does the Government know how many international companies will move their head offices from London to Dublin as a result of corporation tax increasing from 19% to 25%?

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