The Chancellor is an intelligent man who recommended a 15% business tax rate when running for leader and who set up and ran a successful business before being a Minister. He says he wants more UK growth, and now serves a PM who has made growth one of his central aims. So why do we read every day there is no scope for tax cuts? Why are we told the numbers do not allowĀ better incentives for those who work hard, who bring new jobs, and for companies that might come here or stay here and make more investments here if tax rates were lower?
We are told the issue is public borrowing. The government remains wedded to a version of the EU Maastricht rules over debts and deficits which gave us austerity economics throughout the previous decade. Treasury advisers tell the government they can have any rules they like to run the economy as long as they come down to the two EU rules that deficits must be below 3% of GDP, and debt must be falling. They use this to recommend damaging austerity policies which may raise not lower the deficit.Ā What is even more puzzling is how these same advisers are apparently working on measures like bigger subsidies for childcare which could be affordable whilst ruling out tax cuts, and why with the Truss package they were only annoyed by the tax cuts, not by the huge increase in public spending for energy subsidies which cost twice as much as the tax measures on their costings.
In order to constrain the Chancellor the Bank of England , the Treasury and the OBR have decided to present the UK figures in the bleakest possible way. Only in the UK does the taxpayer have to pay up for the losses the Central Bank insists on taking on all the bonds they bought so badly. That’s over Ā£100 bn of losses over 5 years according to the OBR. The European Central BankĀ will not sell bonds into the market to take such huge losses, whilst the US Fed does sell bonds at big losses but does not charge the losses to the taxpayer and Treasury.
Then there is the bizarre UK accounting treatment on debt interest. The Treasury rightly publishes the costs of paying the regular interest on all the state has borrowed, which comes out less than Ā Ā£45bn Ā this year. Then it adds to that this year another Ā£70bn to allow for the impact of rapid inflation on the future repayment cost of the bonds they have sold that are linked to the inflation rate. This is not something taxpayers have to pay when they pay the debt interest. What happens is the eventual capital repayment of the bond is increased by the amount of inflation, when the government will simply re borrow the repayment amount.
All this should be seen by the Chancellor as perverse good news forĀ next year. There will be a big windfall decline in the costs of debt interest as stated, giving him more than Ā£25 bn of lower “spending” to offset any tax cuts he might want to make. He could also slash the costs of selling bonds which this year will cost taxpayers Ā£11bn by telling the Bank not to sell them into the market at big losses. The Bank of England makes it quite clearĀ on their website the bonds belong to taxpayers and they act as Agents of the Treasury in this matter. That will free more scope for tax cuts .
So cheer up Chancellor. Tell the advisers that in their own terms there is flex for tax cuts in their numbers. Tomorrow I will talk about how cutting taxes can raise more revenue, not lower it.
February 12, 2023
Describing the Chancellor as an intelligent man seems as ironic as Mark Anthony’s description of Brutus as an honourable man.
February 12, 2023
+++Lol š¤
February 12, 2023
Oh very good.
February 12, 2023
Yes indeed.
The evidence for why there’s little scope is staring us all in the face every day. The queues of ambulances at A&E, the potholes in our roads, the food banks, and the teachers bringing toothpaste tell us why.
This country is also funding a large part of a war effort in one which must be won.
The rich could do far more and not feel a thing, however,
February 12, 2023
The queues of ambulances are down to our dire NHS Managers.
The potholes in the road our dire local councils. There are some that donāt have major potholes everywhere and employ a couple of guys in a tarmac truck to fill them in when they are small.
Food banks need some careful investigation, who is using them, why? Do they need to be taken in hand of the social state to look after their finances rather than leave them with free flowing benefits they spend inappropriately. If the State takes it over then it can see for itself what is causing the shortfall in their spending and offer training to get into work, help to budget, help to cook, different lower cost accommodation – the whole thing should be looked at.
Teachers bringing toothpaste is because Tony Blair did away with NHS dentistry. Parents stop going so their children stopped being taken, often poor parenting is to blame because toothpaste isnāt expensive, I wouldnāt be surprised if Mum gets her nails done at the nail bar and gets her teeth whitened. Colgate give away little tubes of toothpaste at the dentists to try and persuade people to change brands, if I were a teacher Iād persuade all the big brands to give me those free small tubes and a the little toothbrushes and show the children not cleaning their teeth how to do it at school.
February 12, 2023
Unless peace negotiations can be started to save Ukraine from destruction, that war will be won, but not by the side you want to win. Then all that taxpayers’ money will have been wasted.
You can see the straws in the wind starting to appear in the US media. Compare the Rand Corporation’s latest report on Ukraine (‘need to shorten the war’) with the one it produced in 2019 (‘how to destroy Russia’).
February 12, 2023
Well if Sunak wants to destroy the UK economy and make the Tory Party smaller than the SNP then he is surely going about it in an intelligent way! If however he actually want an economic recovery then cut and simplify taxes, ditch net zero, cut red tape, halve the size of the state sector and actually control and deter illegal immigration.
Daniel Hannan today is surely right:-
Insolent, unproductive and dominated by HR, the Civil Service thinks it rules Britain
The only solution to this growing problem is a serious reduction in numbers, releasing bureaucrats to the private sector
February 12, 2023
Numerous figures in history have possessed high IQs without acting in the interests of people they were supposedly leading. This one was unelected, actually beaten as leader in a democratic members’ vote. He’s perceived as working strictly for vested interests rather than for the electorate, so will fail to be elected by the same electorate.
February 12, 2023
So are they all, all honorable men
February 13, 2023
Beautifully put.
Although MA was facing a mob who’d been won over by Brutus, who might tear him apart – so his strategy (in Shakespeare’s clever version) was to use those words repeatedly while gradually saying increasingly deprecating things about Bruus…
The trick is that the human brain will cease to understand something it hears repeatedly in the same timeframe. It become meaningless – but the listener is vaguely aware that’s the speaker is saying something ostensibly complimetary about the subject, but it doesn’t really register… they only process the negative.
Very clever – and when you consider how many centuries ago it was done… utterly brilliant.
But yeah – the post made me laugh. š
February 12, 2023
From The Guardian.
āWe canāt wait until the next general election, people are depressed, weāve got to give them hope,ā said the backbencher Edward Leigh. āCorporation, personal, fuel tax ā youāve got to give them something.ā Another MP told Hunt the Conservative party would face a āfin de siĆØcleā ā the end of an era ā in government if people did not feel they had more disposable income.
It is also suggested that it is the IMFās gloomy forecast ( U.K. economy will shrink) which is preventing tax cuts being made!
Why do Chancellors etc. even listen?
February 12, 2023
@Cuibono An arch remainer looking to contrive the return to his master control. The EU will give him a massive well paid promotion and the UK will no longer be a thorn but a bankrupt puppet
February 12, 2023
Ian, I believe that too, we are run by two of the wealthiest men in parliament, Sunak and Hunt. We will see them both leave for a future career of high power and prestige in the top club. Mayās getting her rewards too and her little helpers. The people need to wise up to this perfidy.
February 12, 2023
+100
Agree 100%
February 12, 2023
Maybe, rather than whispered advice and timid suggestion someone should bellowā¦
āLook at the polls man! Do you really want to turn this country over to a bunch of commies?ā
Ohā¦waitā¦.
February 12, 2023
@Cuibono +1
I dont think they still care, they know they are out and are to busy setting up new careers
February 12, 2023
The rats are running.
February 12, 2023
+10
Yes.
Like when in 2008 the City was buzzing with āIām off to work in ( a selection of hot, rich countries)ā not āHow do we fix this?ā
February 12, 2023
At this rate and the direction of policy Mr. Sunak the Tories will not even be the official opposition in 2024 but the SNP will be!
An excellent video by Dr John Campbell today on the dire excess deaths figure worldwide (nearly all up & Germany a terrifying 44% up and even younger age groups too).
He also rightly questions why the ONS have stopped publishing figures by vaccination status since May 2022.
We can surely only assume they show just how dangerous, ineffective they have been. If not surely they would be publishing them and shouting about how āsafe and effectiveā the vaccines were and how many lives were saved. Why else would the ONS and Gov. be suppressing the figures? If I am wrong perhaps ministers or the ONS can simply explain why else?
February 12, 2023
Why do all complaints of excess deaths focus on vaccinations? I am aware of excess (early, somewhat untreated ) cancer deaths. Largely due to no GP suspician/detection, very late referrals, slow hospital treatment and rapid demise.
February 12, 2023
You have to have protocols and tick the right boxes for a clerk to allow you through for a consultation. If you can’t tick the right boxes due to an other suspicious symptom then the referral is thrown out! Thus spake management.
February 13, 2023
They donāt, delays in treatment clearly causes some of the additional deaths too. But the increase is large, worldwide and even in countries with better health care systems than the UK. Why have the ONS/Gov stopped releasing the vaccination status figures since May 31st? Why is there no proper investigation into the causes of thes tens of thousands of excess deaths many were young people too? Why did Andrew Bridgen lose the whip and get abused for telling the truth & drawing attention to this issue?
The government, their experts and statisticians surely know the truth and are trying to hide it as much as possible but this will clearly fail. Nothing to see here, perhaps people not taking statins says the deluded Chris Whitty.
February 12, 2023
Boris, Sunak and the gang ignored the voting electorate the week after the 2019 election ā¦.I donāt believe that they give a toss about the electorate ā¦just look at how easy they overturned the wishes of the membership and got rid of Liz
February 12, 2023
Get to the point Mr Redwood. We’ve been here before. Say what needs to be said, that the aim is take this country back into the EU. JUST SAY IT
When Labour come to power they will destroy speech, debate and criminalise normality. All will be demonised should they refuse to bend. Brexit will be deemed ‘far right’ or some other Stalinist description which is now all the rage for the establishment. This is what happens to decency and civility when the Tories refuse to oppose the Left
February 12, 2023
Itās even worse than you say. An 80 seat majority Conservative government has all but succeeded in destroying our English way of life. Forget EU related tax related policies for a moment – this government doesnāt even want to ensure its people are kept safe by continuing to allow mass illegal immigration. Even Scotland wonāt allow the strapping young men in who cross the channel in increasing numbers every day. Even EU membership / alignment pales into insignificance compared to that.
February 12, 2023
Strapping young fighting age men allied to goodness knows what groups!
Johnson (they say) panicked and followed draconian instructions re Lockdown so as not to have blood on his hands.
He might just as well have taken the supposed risk of killing the whole country.
As you say..it happened anywayā¦our way of life destroyed.
February 12, 2023
@DOM +1
And by any means and any terms, its the sole reason they have never permitted us to leave – just become their controled Colony
February 12, 2023
Agreed. Except the aim isn’t to take us into the core EU which will be the Eurozone. It’s to force us into the outer tier which Cameron proposed to Merkel (and she rejected) and has now been revived by Macron. The outer tier will probably include Turkey, Ukraine, the remaining EFTA nations, Switzerland and in due course, quite possibly the north African nations bordering the Med …… creating Eurasia (Orwell 1984)
February 12, 2023
Sir John, what do you know of the 2 day meeting in Ditchley Park when senior politicians from both parties, diplomats, defence reps, banking figures etc met to discuss ‘How can we make Brexit work better with our neighbours in Europe?’
I fear a real shift towards joining a second division membership, do you?
February 12, 2023
Much as there are aspects of Gove I don’t like ( to put it politely ) he is head and shoulders above whoever thought it would appeal to the serfs to put noose man in a position of influence.
Cross party talks are good.
February 12, 2023
They didn’t meet to discuss democracy, that for sure
February 12, 2023
We have to be in Oceania though – remember Airstrip One? š
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/11/revealed-secret-cross-party-summit-held-to-confront-failings-of-brexit
I see that JR lost his invitation to this little meeting with its star studded cast – perhaps they could get on with expressed will of the people rather than seeking to secretly subvert it?
Zorro
February 12, 2023
Labour and the press are calling Labourās own red rock supporters in Liverpool far-right now, donāt make me laugh. Iāve never met a Scouser still in Liverpool who isnāt a Tory hating leftie. Iāve met rich Scousers in London who are still red to the bone, theyāll probably skip off to their summer homes or Jersey when they come to power so they donāt have to personally pay up.
The one benefit is that the EU doesnāt want the likes of Farage back in the EU parliament, however, their aim is quite transparent, we are to be hobbled, shackled to Brino by Starmer and his team. There are plenty of Tory MPs that want this aim but couldnāt get away with it in their own party so theyāre happy to fall on their swords, probably with a nice job already lined up. Sorry John, I know some are your colleagues and friends but that is what I feel is going on.
February 12, 2023
This looks about right to me.
February 12, 2023
āā An extraordinary cross-party summit bringing together leading leavers and remainers ā including Michael Gove and senior members of Keir Starmerās shadow cabinet ā has been held in high secrecy to address the failings of Brexit and how to remedy them in the national interest, the Observerāā ā¦another stitch-up on the way ā¦what was that I hear you say about dempocracy
February 12, 2023
They’re building the next CONsensus on the EU …… so that the electorate is denied a choice. As they were from 1970 – 2016.
February 12, 2023
Itās got to be organised before our payments stop this year, they drop right down, the Ā£2.5bn fine for Chinese imports topped it up but they donāt want the UK they just want our dosh. It was never only the membership fee, it was always the fines, tolls, vat taxes on imports from the row, they are millions down.
Sunak had already agreed to shackle us with his G7 buddies hence the 25% corp tax rate and why Hunts hands are tied. Hunt got the job because he was willing to go against everything he supposedly believed in to do the dirty work and Esther McVey trusted him I bet she feels a right chump now.
February 12, 2023
On November 3 of last year I emailed this to Sir John –
‘Stephen Glover says lower taxes enhance growth. Yet as far as I can tell my MP works just as hard when taxes are high. Are you different from the people who start new businesses’.
And I got no reply although he is my MP.
Reply I work as hard as your MP when taxes go up because I am committed to providing a good public service. However higher taxes put people off taking on new jobs, starting new businesses and doing extra hours for reward because the net rewards are lower.
February 12, 2023
I worked more hours last month and got less pay !
February 13, 2023
Do MPs pay corporation tax, Stephen?
Like most people in the UK, their taxes dropped in November 2022 when the national insurance personal allowance was raised. If not corporation tax, what other tax-rise that applies to MPs are you writing about?
February 12, 2023
100% correct. We are being controlled from abroad and the politicians are too stupid to see it.
February 12, 2023
Good morning.
The ECB cannot sell bonds at a loss because the Germans’ will have a fit. The US Fed’ can sell them at a loss because the Dollar is a reserve currency. We make the taxpayer pay because we were paid by the government enforced lockdown to stop work. Now its payback time.
Once again, thank you, Sir John.
February 12, 2023
They are being told things by the Senior CS and, what they are being told, or led to believe, is that by sticking closely to the EU things will get better. They will not ! It is just a ruse to keep us aligned.
February 12, 2023
If only he would tackle our horrendous waste of taxpayers money, then he could really lower taxes.
The more he taxes us the more they waste and still the circle won’t be broken. Unbelievable.
February 12, 2023
Indeed, but is Sunak really an intelligent man if he cannot see how damaging his high tax, over regulation and waste policies are? He has very little political judgement, he has fallen for the insanity of net zero, his tax to death policies are absurd and will not work, he caused the inflation with his money printing, the thinks enforces maths for people not interest in maths to 18 is a good plan, his furlough policies were absurd as is his pushing of the green economy. The dope did not even cancel absurd HS2 project. His aim seems to be to make SNP the official opposition and destroy the Tories.
Jon Moynihan in the Telegraph today is surely right:-
āRishi Sunakās tax hikes have a fundamental flaw
No matter how high the Treasury sets individual tax rates, it will not be able to squeeze more as a percentage of GDP out of the economyā
February 12, 2023
The more he does the more the rich will leave and/or invest elsewhere or just stop working so hard. The poor will rely more on benefits with a bit of barter and cash in hand work. So less tax in & more benefits going out.
February 12, 2023
With the ‘government’ running a collossal deficit, scope for tax-cuts is low. But come they must, and in the next budget – and that means that benefits will need axing. I ran this idea in a comments thread on Mail Online that seemed dominated by members of the Socialist Workers Party. Despite that, my comment received twice as many upticks as downticks. Let me go further, the Conservatives need to move towards a situation where less than a third of adults are receiving non-pension benefits AND the tax-burden on the working strivers has fallen. Thirteen years after defeating Brown, the Conservatives are still applying his tax policies!
February 12, 2023
The state sector wastes so much and has so much fat that could easily be cut out there is certainly scope for v. significant tax cuts. But you have to cut out the waste Sunak and Hunt seem to have no intention of even trying to do this. The reality is we cannot afford not to cut taxes.
February 12, 2023
You say:- Tomorrow I will talk about how cutting taxes can raise more revenue, not lower it.
Good, plus cutting red tape and ditching Mayās insane economic time bomb of ānet zeroā nodded through by by out generally scenically illiterate and foolish MPs. Release the circa 70% of the state sector that does so little of value to get real & productive jobs. Cancel the soft loans for duff worthless degree (circs 75% are) too. Let/Make people learn on the job.
February 12, 2023
āGloomy Official forecasts and bad numbersā is far too polite to describe what is going on a present. The people in charge are to put it mildly bonkers and need to be fired immediately.
February 12, 2023
Spin, and deceit. Both of these are specialities of the government & party you support.
February 12, 2023
One has a sense that this really is the ādecline and fallā of this country. I watched a few episodes of the new series of Clarksonās Farm last night. The planning system in this country encapsulates everything that is wrong with the country. He wants to convert a building into a restaurant which would use the produce from his and other local farms. It would help the farmers survive – his farm has lost Ā£82k a year in EU subsidies and Mr. Redwoodās government, despite promises before Brexit that they would maintain farming subsidies, have reneged on that – it would create employment and it would help the AONB the farm is in to be maintained. If all the farms go broke the AINB will not be looked after. Well, the number of bodies that had their say on the planning application! The list went on and on. All of the people on those bodies are paid from the public purse but they are all totally unproductive. They are a burden the rest of us have to carry. This nonsense is now terminal. The country cannot function because of the burden of these unaccountable bodies dragging the country to a halt.
The national grid was built in 3 years between 1932 and 1935. Those were the days! Make a decision and get on with it. Look how long it took to get HS2 from an idea to a digger working. The country is a madhouse.
February 12, 2023
the country is not a madhouse – the people wielding any sort of power/decision making are the inmates.
February 12, 2023
Indeed but a tragedy that the HS2 vastly expensive white elephant ever was conceived let alone built.
February 12, 2023
I heartily agree, this is the most logical reason behind their desire to drive us unto abject poverty.
February 12, 2023
If all this immigration was planned for reasons of improving the economy and demographics ā¦.
Why isnāt it working?
Another incredibly rubbish forecast?
February 12, 2023
Read Dan Hannan in the Telegraph this morning. Insolent unproductive obsessed with HR, civil servants think they run Britain.
Think? We know they do and so does the Government that makes no attempt to push back.
Einsteins definition of insanity. āDoing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different resultā
And in other news. 31 billion wasted on useless Covid drug and proposed virtual wards will only monitor patients for 12 hours a day. Andrew Marr totally correct everything is sort of sh*t and the government has neither a clue or the ability to do anything about it.
February 12, 2023
It would seem that running or investing in a business nowadays is just a lottery, which makes long term planning/investment a farce with ever moving goalposts on tax rates, hence the reason people will go elsewhere, latest example, AstraZeneca.
Likewise future planning on a personal level with fiscal drag on all tax rates which go back decades in some cases.
Then we have the total confusion on major items like car and house purchase, stamp duty up and down, car taxes ever growing, a thousand and one different emission Zones, Car tax based on a selling price which includes VAT, so a tax on a tax.
Politicians have lost the plot, and as usual the taxpayer picks up the bill.
February 12, 2023
Well to be fair Alan, the personal tax allowance on the National Insurance element of your tax did go up from Ā£9568 to Ā£12570 Nov 2022. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/rates-and-thresholds-for-employers-2022-to-2023, thats a 12% saving on Ā£3000 of earnings.
Maggieās entrepreneurs from the 80ās are getting on a bit, will they have time to recoup the 6% extra tax when clients wonāt pay the increase and are drifting away to none tax-paying subbies. The government is about to find out come April!
February 12, 2023
While I agree with most of this blog about tax cutting to produce growth, I did and do support the hopefully temporary energy price subsidy as the least bad option. However I would cut public expenditure (permanently) to pay for it as part of a strategy to drastically reduce the outrageous (and terrible value for money) Ā£38,000 per household cost of public expenditure.
February 12, 2023
Truss was dumped to get this shower! Not the nasty party, but the stupid party which will be swept away at the next general election.
Hopefully then a true Conservative will become leader.
February 12, 2023
āTreasury advisers tell the government they can have any rules they like to run the economy as long as they come down to the two EU rules that deficits must be below 3% of GDP, and debt must be falling. ā
So in reality the in denial Treasury still sees the EU as our Overlords and their Boss not a UK Government. Independent thought on what is best for the UK is not permitted in this brave new WEF World.
February 12, 2023
+1
February 12, 2023
Another bizarre and illogical moveā¦ why would we build British weaponry in Ukraine? A Telegraph article says weāre going to!!
February 12, 2023
Apparently loads of foreign firms are gagging to get the contract(s) to make weapons in Ukraine.
We just want to be at the head of the queueā¦similar to all those phials of jabs.
Fat lot of good all the childish politicking does for us ordinary mortals!
BUT maybe it is Ukraine that is so keen on manufacture under licence in Ukraine.
Because it would bind the country closer to the EU ( long term plan to join) and NATO?
Shares in weapon manufacture soaring I expect!
Cui bono?
February 12, 2023
Why, Sharon? Could it be, because we don’t have a proper defence industry left?
February 12, 2023
Sunak does not want any new things made here. It will spoil his fanatical ‘green’ and ‘zero’ ideologies. A new fighter aircraft seemingly designed here is almost certainly to be built in Australia. If we need things he thinks we can always buy them.
February 12, 2023
If anyone seriously thinks Sunak and Hunt are making the decisions and running the country they are several sandwiches short of a picnic.
The WEF is issuing the orders and the Treasury, BoE and Quangocracy are enforcing them.
Sunak and Hunt are just marionettes …… like Scott and Virgil Tracey from Thunderbirds.
February 12, 2023
I agree. The same narrative is being played out in all western countries. This control is bigger than the EU. It is about to get worse. Next week the WHO discuss the implementation of the Global Health Passport whereby they decide what vaccines people must take in order to travel internationally. Our Government has already said this is a good idea. We face a future trapped in our 15 minute cities controlled by their digital currency, just like China. If voters don’t wake up to this before the next election then we are doomed.
February 12, 2023
Even if they do wake up to the globalist scam before the next election, Christine, who do they then vote for? Normally, I would say: Tell the pollsters ‘Reform UK’ – that would motivate the Tories to shift their policies, so as not to lose votes to Reform. Unfortunately the Tories are so far gone that they’re going to massively haemorrage votes anyway. Losing votes to Reform is probably the least of their worries.
February 12, 2023
What a joke, I have had an International Certificate of Vaccination/Prophylaxis (ICVP) also called Carte Jaune in French-speaking countries since the 1970s when I started to go to countries requesting specific vaccinations like Yellow Fever, Cholera, Typhus, ā¦ not generally given at a young age like the DTap/IPV vaccines.
But keep on the hysterics ā¦
February 12, 2023
And do the French ensure their visitors that they are keen to put on buses and into dinghies as soon as possible have these cards when they pass throughout France? If they donāt, do they vaccinate them? If not, what is the point of your carte jaune.
February 12, 2023
That’s right Hefner, ‘countries requesting specific vaccinations’. (I’ve had a quite a few of those too.) NOT ‘countries told by a private organisation based in Geneva to require specific vaccinations of their citizens seeking to travel’, regardless of a country’s own national policy. This, in case you didn’t understand Christine’s point, is what is at issue here. Surely you don’t need to be reminded that people in many countries were banned from flying if they hadn’t been jabbed against COVID-19. The danger is that a supranational organisation could in future take such decisions, overriding our national sovereignty. A woman who has pointed that out to you should not in my view be described as ‘hysterical’.
February 12, 2023
All very well trialed and tested vaccines over a number of years unlike the MRNA injections which they will be strong arming us to take in order to travel! Keep up, even you can read data!
Zorro
February 12, 2023
Indeed, I can read data, and as reported on various instances (last one on http://www.gov.uk 03/02/2023 āCoronavirus vaccine – summary of Yellow Card reportingā). On 41m UK people having received three injections (2 + booster) less than 9,000 cases of ADRs (adverse drug reactions) were reported. Thatās 0.2% ie similar to the rate of ADRs for other vaccinations.
But I wonder why I bother answering your comment, given that you and your ilk are fully impervious to any sensible argument.
February 14, 2023
Well you clearly donāt understand what youāve read, because that figure c.9,000 refers to bivalent vaccines since Autumn 2022 and not the others submitted over the nearly two previous years. And it is estimated that only 10% of reactions are ever recorded. It is also known that there have been proportionately far more reactions to these vaccines than others which have been administered. How did the human trials go on the bivalent vaccines? Did you read the initial Pfizer data on the trials which they did not want to release for 75 years? Of course you didnāt. Why do I bother correcting your misleading comments?
Zorro
February 14, 2023
As of 23 November 2022, for the UK, 177,925 Yellow Cards have been reported for the monovalent and bivalent COVID-19 Vaccine Pfizer/BioNTech, 246,866 have been reported for the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca, 47,045 for the monovalent and bivalent COVID-19 Vaccine Moderna, 52 for the COVID-19 Vaccine Novavax and 2,130 have been reported where the brand of the vaccine was not specified.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1128782/Coronavirus_Vaccine_-_Summary_of_Yellow_Card_reporting_23.11.2022_final.pdf
Epic fail Hefner – must do better!
Zorro
February 12, 2023
I’m in no doubt we follow the EU because it still has control over us in all manner of means kept secret. This is not opposed by our government and it administrators who intend to return to it officially.
They are just waiting for the moment they can get away with an announcement. All contrary statements are just part of their wish to deceive us.
February 16, 2023
Zorro, UK first vaccination 53,818,491 doses
ā¦ā¦ā¦ā¦second ā¦ā¦ā¦ā¦ā¦.50,762,958
ā¦ā¦ā¦ā¦thirdā¦ā¦ā¦ā¦ā¦ā¦ā¦40,528,279
Total ā¦ā¦ā¦ā¦ā¦ā¦ā¦ā¦ā¦ā¦145,104,728. As of end of 23/11/2022.
Thatās from Tables 1, 2 & 3 p.11 & 12 of the document you quote.
From the same document ā¦ā¦454,018 ADRs p.7
which gives 0.31%
You say the number of ADRs should be multiplied by 10 (where did you get that from? Reference(s) please as āit is estimatedā is not good enough ā¦)
BTW, Iām reading āThe death of expertise: The campaign against established knowledge and why it mattersā, by T.Nicholls, Oxford U.Press, 2017. Very interesting.
February 17, 2023
Have a look at Dr John Campbellās YOUTUBE channel where he mentioned it quite recently in respect of the MHRA Yellow Card data. There are other references which I havenāt got time at the moment to list. The MHRA have stated historically that usually only around 5% of adverse, and 10% of serious adverse reactions are reported. Of course, since COVID 19, they are saying that it is no longer a valid assumptionā¦. Well, Iām not surprised they are saying that š
https://www.gov.uk/drug-safety-update/yellow-card-please-help-to-reverse-the-decline-in-reporting-of-suspected-adverse-drug-reactions
February 12, 2023
Dear Mr. Redwood,
At the risk of stealing some of your thunder over how lower taxes can increase revenue, there are some figures in a Daily Telegraph article today about the rates and receipts of corporation tax. The figures are widely available on the internet. From 2010 to 2017, as Conservatives reduced the corporation tax rate from 28% to todayās 19%, receipts doubled from Ā£31.7bn to Ā£62.7bn.
Now, the Conservatives are going to increase the rate from 19% to 25%. What effect on revenues will this have I wonder? Astra Zeneca building their new factory in Ireland may give us a clue. Perhaps not the only reason but the corporation tax rate in Ireland is 12.5%.
Instead of joining and backing the Reform Party, you urge your readers and voters to get behind the Conservatives instead. Why should we do this please?
February 12, 2023
@Alan Paul Joyce – and as Sir John suggested, Hunt in putting himself forward for the job as Leader promised 15% knowing the reality of higher taxes versus the damage going the otherway.
February 12, 2023
raising Corp Tax from 19% to say 25% is effectively loading all chambers with bullets for Tory Russian roulette.
February 12, 2023
Ā£31.7bn today using hefners recommended inflation tool on the internet says Ā£31.7bn in 2022 is worth Ā£42.39bn so still well in excess in real terms.
Why doesnāt one of our serious news channels, just one actually interview the chancellor and ask him about this in line with his previous beliefs that 15% was preferable than 19%?
February 12, 2023
āHope is the denial of reality. It is the carrot dangled before the draft horse to keep him plodding along in a vain attempt to reach it.”
“Are you saying we shouldn’t hope?”
“I’m saying we should remove the carrot and walk forward with our eyes open!ā
Margaret Weis (American author)
February 12, 2023
Else where the newly formed āNet Zeroā Department Head has stated that their should be additional levy on energy to fund his aspersions.
This is one of the PMās newly created Empires, now looking to build and build its purpose. All when the other empires are still failing
The Tax(Levy) on Energy is already at an all time history high. As it is not stated by Government as Tax, as it isnāt included in the already 70year high on UK taxation.
Ministers should not be permitted to use the word levy when it is just tax.
The Government is lucky as we are all idiots and cant see that they are out to deliberately and maliciously punish us all, not only until it hurts but until we submit and give up.
February 12, 2023
I have had enough of doom and gloom Treasury style, I offer you a disaster gloom in our race for green electricity. Al Jazeera this morning exploded the myth of green electricity and electic vehicles. The quesf for them involves dsvastating mining around the World that destroys water tables, causes untold lung disease, cancer, and generally despoils the planet on a grand scale. It was explained by many engineers and scientists from many nationalities. All done so that we in the Northern Hemisphere and particularly Europe can run around virtue signalling in our electric cars enjoyinv a landscape full of electric generating windmills and solar panels. The manufacture of all three involves the mining of rare metals on a grand scale which would not be tolerated in Europe. As it is mostly in the Southern Hemisphere and China it is of no concern to the virtue signalling nett zero advocates. I accept that Al Jazeera is Middle Eastern and that is where much fossil fuel originates, but this does not alter the fundamental case.
For us there is an alternative to this road to hell in a hand cart, and that is Hydrogen. It is where we should be directing our scientific and engineering talent , much like the Japanese. It is clean and does not have the infrastructure downsides. Wake up.
February 12, 2023
There is nothing wrong with the Maastricht rules. There was no austerity economics in the last decade; the government carried on borrowing more in every year.
Cutting tax is a good idea, but it needs to be done in conjunction with reducing government waste, not more borrowing.
February 12, 2023
Sir John, today has dawned dim and still and grey. Even your usual sense and clear vision offers no ray of sunshine.
Do your backbenchers hunger for the dole, avidly seek rejection at the ballot box? Is it true that a senior Conservative is in talks with other parties about reshackling our economy to the EU? Are those nominally in charge of our financial future really still following economic rules that have favoured Germany and bled the rest of the EU ?
Fight, Sir John, the time for compromise is over. Let ordinary decent politicians from all sides of the House take back control. Fight, you bast***s!
JF
(One ray of sunshine: Ā£100,000,000,000 isn’t much. You can’t even build a white elephant railway to nowhere for that!)
February 12, 2023
The bast***s couldn’t fight their way out of a paper bag ….. even IF they wanted to.
Most of them don’t.
February 12, 2023
How much of that Ā£45b interest is due on the bond debt that the BoE purchased with the cĀ£900b of QE and does the Tresuary actually pay interest on that to the BoE.
Reply About a third and Yes
February 12, 2023
All good, Sir John, but the simple answer is to cut the cost of Government. If the PM & Chancellor did that, they could ignore all the gloom & doom forecasts & have plenty of room for significant tax cuts.
February 12, 2023
@Keith from Leeds The Bill to cut back was quashed by the PM Rishi Sunak up on taking office
February 12, 2023
The blob are clearly hoping that if economic gloom can be spun out to the next election, Starmer will get in and (de facto at least) reverse Brexit. Given how little the Conservatives have done in 6.5 years to deliver the advantages of Brexit claimed by the Leave campaign, it is difficult to argue that re-joining the customs union and single market (the blobās objective) would not deliverer a near term boost. Obviously it would also negate the referendum without a vote, and store up future political, constitutional (and in the end, economic problems).
Dan Hannan has it right today in the telegraph – the best way to improve public sector productivity, which seems to be in free fall, is a large reduction in the number of public sector employees. Look what Elon musk has done at twitter. 75% of the employees have gone and the companyās performance has if anything improved! Maybe we canāt match that but a 25% cull of the most useless jobs would surely give the sort of rocket boost we need. Not least would be the economic boost given by redeploying able people to the private sector where they can do something useful.
February 12, 2023
@Richard1 _ the trouble with Dan Hannan like Sir John he is a Conservative
February 12, 2023
Richard1 – Yes I think a 25 per cent reduction would be about right but starting with the House of Lords on a ‘last in first out’ basis’ – I wonder then how that would fit with Hannan’s plans for cutting back on public service – i presume being a Lord he is also a public srrvant – also remembering Hannan’s speak about the EU being so undemocratic as we’ve been told for years, some of us would now love to know how he has managed to get elected to the Lords
February 12, 2023
Off Topic.
Something I thought I would never happen in my lifetime.
Will nurses with family being cared for with cancer take action?
The last of respect has just drained away.
BBC website:
An escalation of strike action could see staff from emergency departments, intensive care and cancer wards walking out. Nurses from A&E, intensive care and cancer wards could strike in England, as a major nursing union considers escalating a dispute over pay.
The Royal College of Nursing (RCN) wants higher wages as the cost of living bites, but ministers argue that pay is set by an independent body.
The union is considering a continuous 48-hour strike, with walkouts through the night.
However, all staff would continue to meet minimum legal levels of care. The union also said it may not make local agreements to help NHS managers during the strike periods, as it has done before.
In previous action, there were about 5,000 cases where the strike was not fully implemented which were decided through joint committees of NHS and RCN staff.
A Royal College of Nursing source said NHS leaders are “fearing this escalation” and “must bring pressure to bear on government to get it stopped”.
The union would have to give two weeks’ notice for any action.
February 12, 2023
too long?
February 12, 2023
“What happens is the eventual capital repayment of the bond is increased by the amount of inflation, when the government will simply re borrow the repayment amount.”
We know it’s a choice of allocating repayment or adding the debt accrued with interest to the pile, Ponzi fashion. When the creditors turn up, they ask for repayment of debt and capital. Allocating interest as interest is a prudent way to account. Otherwise the government is encouraged to allow more inflation as it can ignore it as interest. Why should we lwt the government get away with that?
February 12, 2023
If it is in your manifesto and people vote for that manifesto and people are elected on our behalf on that manifesto then they cannot vote against the legislation to help that pledge to be honoured. This new āit was passed to the lords and they stopped itā is a lie, an 80 seat majority gave you more than enough power to enact pledges and it is disgusting and will also end the Lords because the people have lost trust in them.
February 12, 2023
@a-tracy The Conservative Party supports it, however, the Conservative Party(the membership) was locked out of choosing the leader/PM
February 12, 2023
āIn order to constrain the Chancellor the Bank of England, the Treasury and the OBR have decided to present the UK figures in the bleakest possible way.ā
The only logical explanation is that these organisations wish to make the country poorer. This also extends to the civil service, quangos, NGOs, judiciary, NHS and educational establishment who are all also pursuing the economy destroying Net Zero Strategy.
The administration of all our institutions has been taken over by fifth column communists.
February 12, 2023
SirJ your article today only makes sense if weāre, indeed, just puppets of the EU, UN WEF and the BoE ā¦whoās waging the tail of the dog
February 12, 2023
Part of the GREAT RESET and new basket of currencies for NATO members and no more dollar reserve, so by increasing debt you can make it a reality and easy to sell to the public like, we saved you. A digital currency is to bigger step for them at this time and big companies want same currency as much as possible, in other words, no more euro/ dollar system, just one currency like the euro.
February 12, 2023
Sir John,
It appears that our government wants the UK to fail.
They increase taxes, including an uncompetitively high rate of Corporation Tax, to drive business away (Astra Zeneca was to build its new facility in England, but now will do so in Ireland where tax is lower and apparently bureaucracy is easier). Windfall taxes that discourage oil & gas companies from increasing their operations in the North Sea. The method of dealing with QE debt, as you describe. The refusals to stop illegal immigration and to stop EU court jurisdiction over us. All to discourage us and forcibly to demonstrate to all that a country that leaves the EU struggles and fails.
In 2016, I thought that the Honourable Members of Parliament would respect and implement the decision of the electorate in the referendum, whichever way it went; and that, following the vote to leave the EU, our MPs would enact the measures required to “take back control” of our borders, our laws and our money. I was wrong.
February 12, 2023
You tell us tax cut will bring in more revenue so why do we make excuses not to do it and stop burdening business?
February 12, 2023
@George Sheard, because it would mean the Government would have to take on responsibilty and do their job
February 12, 2023
Probably the best question on this diary today ā¦why isnāt this conservative government doing all it can to aid, support and assist UK business growth
February 12, 2023
āIf the government could only give poorer people some more timeā Torsten Bell in the Guardian āStress means that financially challenged households pay less attention to energy billsā
Couldnāt the government could just take over poorer peopleās payment accounts, those who canāt budget their household accounts and arenāt paying their rent and bills, and just give them the pocket money that is left over to spend on themselves, then they can see for themselves the shortfall. It wouldnāt be everyone, only those in arrears (pay the core essentials housing, energy, water first – then give them the leftover funds).
February 12, 2023
@a-tracy – To easy. The setup is Sky TV then Mobile phones, anything but essentials
February 12, 2023
Youāre forgetting the tinnies and the vodka or gin when that doesnāt hit the spot anymore. Oh and the weed, when youāre walking around you donāt smell it often walking past the private estates, you donāt get the teenagers on electric bikes silently wizzing past you on pavements with balaclavas on and thatās not just in winter! Check out where most of the lottery tickets are bought, thatās where most of the lottery money should be spent in relative balance.
I watched a tweet yesterday with a young man who actually believed he shouldnāt have to perform any economic work at all, he didnāt want to be a āslaveā to the system. Fine young man, if you can find a partner to support you or your parents but donāt claim and leech off the rest of us, he was pushing for guaranteed income whether you work or not! I canāt believe what I read sometimes and a family member told me the Labour Party agree with it.
February 12, 2023
The political establishment behind government are our very own Trojan horse.
Like the Greeks they sail out of reach of censure, and leave their lies behind, only for us to be deceived and worse.
Time we put big holes in the Greek ships.
February 12, 2023
Gloom and despair is the message from 10 Downing St . The combination of Sunak and Hunt and the economic tone of their approach is disastrous for the entire community . Astra Zeneka’s decision to locate their new plant in the Irish Republic is a demonstration of what has gone wrong . The country badly needs a positive motivation for change ; unless this happens we will become non-entities in the world .
February 12, 2023
It is time for Sunak and Hunt to exit stage left. The party is facing wipeout. Sunak should be offered a cabinet post to step into to avoid an ugly VONC process. Perhaps Foreign Secretary. Not sure if Hunt is salvageable. Who will be the new leader is the question. I’d say Steve Barclay or Geoffrey Cox. With a promiment cheerleading role for Boris, not PM. I would like to see talents from every wing of the party used in the cabinet, as the factional nature of recent cabinets has been disappointing.
February 12, 2023
@SimonR – How about the Conservative Party(the Membership) choosing. These Guys appear to have been just anointed/appointed by the Blob and themselves. Which is why they have little support among Conservatives.
February 12, 2023
I agree that under normal circumstances, it should be the members, and I find it deeply disingenuous when some MP’s and their fellow travellers blame the members for choosing Truss, when the choice of Truss or Sunak that the members ended up with seems to have been engineered largely by his own campaign. That said, I really don’t think the public will accept another full length leadership campaign. So it’s either follow Sunak into the cannon’s mouth, or some other contrivance.
By the way, it goes without saying that our host should be given a role in setting the economic policy at the heart of any new Government.
February 12, 2023
K f L
They will never do it. You will wait for hell to freeze over and it still won’t happen. It is not in their DNA.
February 12, 2023
TV cameras showed Jeremy Hunt standing at a bus stop in a photo opportunity. He did so as a Minister, explaining that it was his way of saving the Government money!
Our money is blown out of control. Huntās priority is to buy a magnet to fish the copper coins that rolled down the drain. Next he buys a spanner for people to pick up 50p coins on the pavement. His head is too far down the drain to catch even a glimpse of millions of Ā£50 notes blowing behind his back. The net solution is beyond him.
February 12, 2023
Well magnets do work now as the UK can no longer afford real copper coins and has steel ones with a thin plating of copper coloured alloy they go rusty too.
February 12, 2023
and if recognised the bus wouldn’t stop!
February 12, 2023
How Sunak & Hunt must hate GB News, TalkTV and this Diary for even suggesting a independent conservative pathway
February 12, 2023
This is ridiculous… It’s about time we had a cabinet who stood up for the British taxpayer. Which it would appear will become an endangered species in a few years. Unless the Government take control away from Treasury civil servants & BoE. If the taxpayer pays for their failures, then they must be held accountable for their mismanagement! Which should include prosecution for negligence! Also, having left EU then the use of any EU targets are irrelevant. Seems the Chancellor is accepting the status quo & not challenging to achieve change.
February 12, 2023
@Jude +1 – A Government that is refusing to do what it is paid to do. If they cant hack it they should leave Parliament altogether. We cant keeping have our elected representatives destroying the very thing they are there to support
February 12, 2023
The core problem for Messrs. Hunt and Sunak’s economic policy is that you have shown us what we could credibly have instead, that would work better, be more palatable, and cause less grief. Those gentlemen need now to explain why we can’t have what you offer.
February 12, 2023
The deeper we look into this whole mess, caused by the Civil Servants at the Bank of England, OBR, and Treasury, the more we realise that people are making massive errors and as a result, they are imposing too many restrictions on the Government’s freedom of action.
It also demonstrates that there was nothing wrong with the Growth Strategy proposed by Liz Truss, as the overall extra cost would have been negligible if the sale of bonds at a loss had been stopped. Furthermore, the ridiculous estimated price Bailey put on his pension-fund-saving strategy, turned out to have cost just Ā£19bn rather than the Ā£85bn he estimated ! Another gross error of judgement by the bank, deliberately designed to bring down the Prime Minister.
February 12, 2023
As already pointed out Daniel Hannan, in today’s Telegraph is mirroring everyone’s view of today’s political problems. We need a Government that can manage, and manage effectively all areas that are in receipt of taxpayer money. Why are we empowering Parliament and paying those that take up positions there, for them to then deny us our representation and refuse to do their job.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/11/insolent-unproductive-dominated-hr-civil-service-thinks-rules/
āCivil servants are still treated as non-political; but, these days, they have an agenda. It is rare to find a government employee who thinks that taxation and spending should be lower, or that Britain was right to leave the EU, or that regulations often do more harm than good. At some point in 2021, departmental officials began appending their pronouns to their email signatures ā proof, if nothing else, that they had no interest in ministersā opinions. ā
āIt is perhaps no coincidence that mutterings about alleged bullying seem always to involve Eurosceptic ministers who are seeking to shift the culture in their departments: Priti Patel and, of course, Raab himself, the accusations against whom stem initially from his time as Brexit minister.ā
February 12, 2023
I have a solution to our current doom and gloom.
Factually if you believe the Office of National Statistics ( ONS ), the productivity in the private sector grew by 1.6% since the outset of the pandemic, however in the public sector it fell by 7.4%, despite all the feather bedding of maintained income and working from home. In addition the public sector around Westminster has become blatantly, overtly political, witness the triviality of bullying complaints against ministers.
Solution. Each scribe should be made to apply for his own job, describing on an A4 sheet exactly what he/ she does and why they should continue to function as such. Then the minister and politicians in that department should via a P45 return 50% of them to the private sector. That should effectively put these pretencious to power upstarts firmly back in their box. Future recruitment should be subject to ministerial approval and include people from the private sector. End of story.
February 12, 2023
Home Office ā11th February 2023
Illegal Immigrants 52
Boats 1
Still enough to fill a hotel ā¦everyday
February 12, 2023
No DEV no growth, prices of DEV will go up leading to high prices for everything with more small businesses going under, so tax cut won’t help and with high eletric and gas prices for businesses and people coming in April by gov mandate i cannot see growth coming till they get the public sign up to what they want by way of election, but by that time you will be begging them help.
February 12, 2023
The Government is being led by events instead of leading events. No vision! No courage! No hope!
February 12, 2023
Kilcullen, It seems that the orders are to bring our economy down, blame Brexit, and prepare to rejoin. It explains everything.
February 12, 2023
Did George Osborne just say on the Sunday Ch4 Andrew Neil show that even if the manifesto said to remove the āECHRsā the Tory parliamentary party wouldnāt allow it to be removed
February 13, 2023
Even to the financially orthodox, there is no need for tax increases, because the scope for public expenditure cuts and shrinking the State is huge. I recently sent you a 7 page note on possible genuine cuts and you said that you have read it. Should I send it to Jeremy Hunt or is he determined on electoral suicide? Perhaps ‘Compassionate Conservativism’ is impossible.
February 13, 2023
“Tomorrow I will talk about how cutting taxes can raise more revenue, not lower it.”
I hope you’ll use the correct ternminology:
“Tomorrow I will talk about how cutting TAX RATES can raise more revenue, not lower it.”
Messaging is important. If you assume people know what you know, you will fail.