Today I will give a public lecture at 11 am in All Souls High Street Oxford about Central banks.
I will ask why the Fed, Bank of England and European CB all got their forecasts hopelessly wrong and took inflation up to around 5 times target. I will ask why The Peoples Bank of China and the Bank of Japan presided over inflation that stayed around 2%.
I will ask why the Bank of England first blamed the Ukraine war for the inflation, when UK inflation had hit 5.5% before the war, and when the war’s impact on world energy prices did not cause the same problems in Japan and China.
I will ask why the Bank has more recently blamed bad weather affecting food crops yet they have no weather forecasting variable in their model, and when overall food commodity prices have actually fallen this year.
I will why the Bank’s model has produced such wrong forecasts of inflation yet the Bank does not change its model.
I will examine the bizarre notion that these Banks are independent, when they are important arms of their respective states controlled by national legislation and in four cases owned by the state. Their leaders are appointed by governments.
I will ask why the 3 Banks that got it so wrong do not tell us why and remedy their mistakes.