The Bank and recession

A few days ago the government celebrated news the UK unlike Germany has escaped recession so far, and welcomed IMF forecasts showing no recession ahead. Now a clumsy Bank of England has driven bond prices down so mortgage rates up as it needlessly threatens more bond sales at depressed prices. There is talk of needing a recession to control inflation.

This is dreadful continuing mismanagement. Why did the Bank carry on with bond buying at very inflated prices for so long? Why was it forecasting 2% inflation for now just two years ago? Why does it not study and comment on huge changes in money and credit which must have a bearing on inflation and output?

The Bank told us it got inflation wrong because it did not foresee the Ukraine war and spike in energy. But why was UK inflation  at 5.5% before the war? Why did non energy prices take off? Why did Japanese and Chinese inflation stay low despite energy rises?

The Bank needs to revise its models and try to bring them more in line with what is actually happening to inflation  and output. It should not respond too much too late every time, making the cycle worse.



  1. Mark B
    May 27, 2023

    Good morning.

    There is talk of needing a recession to control inflation.

    I have been saying this here for a little while now. The problem we have is, we have had a Chancellor (Rishi Sunak) who during the SCAMDEMIC allowed the printing of too much money and too much borrowing. We now have high inflation which the government needs to cheapen the debt but, a BoE that is tasked with controlling inflation which said government needs. So there is a bit of a tug of war going on.

    We, the little people, are caught up in the middle, between the rock of inflation and the hard place of interest rate rises which will only affect those who own their own home (workers) and so put a downward pressure on spending. Those who do not own their own home will only suffer through inflation but can offset this through careful spending.

    We may have dodged a recession but that will only prolong the agony. Something not worth crowing about.

    1. PeteB
      May 27, 2023

      Agreed Mark, Sunak’s actions as chancellor were part of the inflation (and debt) problem.

      On Sir J’s comment about the Bank driving down gilt yields, was this the real driver of the ‘bond shock’ last September rather tha Liz & Kwasi’s mini-budget? Whilst their messaging was poor I can’t help thinking it was treated as an ideal opportunity to let them take the flack for BoE action.

      1. rose
        May 27, 2023

        Yes, the financial blob blamed those two then, and now willl blame the supermarkets and utilities. Our innumerate media will report as told.

      2. Ian B
        May 27, 2023

        @PeteB – ‘the real driver’ everything points to Yes. Along with the back door briefings, the hiding of a catalogue of costly mistakes that now seem deliberate and malicious

    2. Peter Wood
      May 27, 2023

      Your last line, no we haven’t dodged recession. Why, because of government spending on war, immigrants and vanity projects, paid for by borrowing. Back-out increased government borrowing/spending from GDP and you’ll see the truth.

    3. Cuibono
      May 27, 2023

      Well said!
      And I really can’t think how people are going to keep on “managing”.
      All the old, cheaper avenues ( street markets, trad butchers and greengrocers) have been removed ( here at least). Fireplaces torn out and none in modern houses. No jumble sales, just expensive “charity” shops full of utter cr*p.
      What are people meant to do?
      Crawl away and die conveniently?

      And we would not be in this position were it not for many decades of underhand govt. scheming.

      1. Ian B
        May 27, 2023

        @Cuibono _ the ‘People’ have to ‘manage’ as this Conservative Goverment refuses to do so.

      2. Mark B
        May 27, 2023

        I read (I think it was from someone here) that even food banks are having trouble receiving donations of food. It’s getting bad.

    4. NottinghamLadHimself
      May 27, 2023

      Growth or recession are meaningless in many people’s lives.

      Where a large part of economic activity is the paying of extortionate rent and leases to rentiers – leaving little for desired spending or investment – the growth figures do not relate sensibly to the misery suffered by many millions in Tory UK.

      And the piece is just yet another of John’s almost daily blame shiftings.

      1. Mickey Taking
        May 27, 2023

        Of course lazy, and the unemployed leeching on the back of people who continue to work and pay taxes has nothing to do with struggling UK? The millions’ lives disrupted daily by the ‘poor’ shirkers standing around arse-licking the union fat-cats is fair game is it? From hundreds of years ago when the landed gentry gained estates by sending the downtroden to fight for King & Country and more recently the slave traders and the inventive industrialists caused the poor to live alongside the very rich.
        Communism has been tried of course – abject failures, and so-called socialism pointed at by Eric Blair (George Orwell) in his novels – all coming true.

      2. Mike Wilson
        May 27, 2023

        And the piece is just yet another of John’s almost daily blame shiftings.

        Not often I agree with anything you say but, yes, this is governments’ fault. Not the position of the apostrophe. We are approaching the end of days. All my lifetime governments have increased debt. They can’t run the economy so they borrow more and more. The state grows remorselessly. The cost of the state grows remorselessly. Legislation grows endlessly. The interest payments grow and grow.

        Sooner or later it will collapse.

        1. Lifelogic
          May 29, 2023

          Indeed this “Conservative” government have quadrupled the national debt, printed money to make the £1 worth more like 70p, increased taxes to the highest levels for 70 years, run open door immigration at 749k PA (when measured as they were last year), delivered a botched semi Brexit and all this while delivering appalling public services, a lack of housing, pushing net zero rip off energy, dreadfully coercing net harm vaccines even into young people…

          Did they or Sunak get anything right? Even the dire Theresa May delivered Opt out Organ Donation perhaps her one and only positive.

          Not quite as bad as Starmer, SNP, Libdims is the only positive one can say of them.

      3. Martin in Bristol
        May 27, 2023

        How strange NHL you think paying rent, ie the cost of housing, is the key thing.
        Not energy costs.
        Not transport costs.
        Not food costs.
        Not the reduced take home pay because of repeated tax rises.
        Not reduced standards of living due to inflation.

        Rents have risen due to greatly increased demand and increased regulations and those costs on landlords.

        Ask yourself why demand has increased NHL

      4. a-tracy
        May 28, 2023

        It is your large labour councils that allocate social housing in the main. If people are living in Manchester and are unable to work why keep them and fund them in Manchester central, there a lower cost areas nearby, the 20% of people who won’t work are holding up homes for people who are working in the city, I know three couples who retired and moved out of the city to lower cost areas.

        It is housing associations that are taking all the profits for themselves instead of fixing up buildings that could be used as flats, keeping the money from home sales without rebuilding, keeping all the land fallow that was gifted to them, leaving homes in a state because their pensions are costing so much they have to keep throwing extra millions in every year, keeping houses empty for months at a time. I watch homes near me that private builders build they have people moving in the day after the decorators finish painting the walls, half the time the private builders are still trying to lay the turf on the moving day! Whereas yesterday I saw two new build homes near my parents still empty three months after they were completed by the council.

        I know people struggling to pay rents and I point out cheaper properties to rent nearby sometimes up to £500 per month less for a similar size property but they don’t want to move to those areas they want to stay in the more expensive postcode! In some cases there is only 15 minutes distance in it. So don’t moan about that.

        The politicking around sensible housing policies is often what causes all the problems. But how many of those social properties are lying empty this week.

    5. Narrow Shoulders
      May 27, 2023

      So increased mortgages will not be passed on to private renters?

      Utopia and a shade blinkered

  2. turboterrier
    May 27, 2023

    What a depressing entry today Sir John.
    Do these people never learn that anyone can make a mistake because that is human nature? There can be no defence for those who contine to make the same mistakes over and over again. That’s incompetence.
    It’s a very basic principle of business in that in what you buy you sell at at a profit not a loss. Anyone can give it away but they don’t keep trading for too long.

    1. Lifelogic
      May 27, 2023

      It was not really a mistake inflation was surely their plan? Not even Bailey and Sunak are so thick as to think you can QE or print such vast sums of money without inflation are they? Inflation is back door taxation on top of all Sunak’s and Hunt’s front door taxation. It pushed more into 40%/45% tax rates, reduced personal allowances, devalues your saving and means you are paid in £ notes now worth just 80p.

      1. Ian+wragg
        May 27, 2023

        I see the latest ruse to bankrupt the country is to sign up to the WHO pandemic preparation scheme.
        Allowing the WHO to steal intellectual property on vaccines etc so countries like China and India benefit for free.
        Of course Pharma will decamp to countries nor stupid enough to sign up so that will be the end of one industry we’re actually good at.
        Never mind the loss of jobs and production will help net zero, after all, that’s all that matters.

        1. Cuibono
          May 27, 2023

          Thanks…I was trying to understand what I had read about all that re Big P!
          Is that why some are getting a bit doubtful about signing? Not because of sovereignty or any such silly concept.
          Isn’t it also the case that the U.K. must make huge payments to fund healthcare in supposedly poorer countries?

        2. Ashley
          May 27, 2023

          Indeed it would be insane to give over such powers to the WHO. This even if they had showed themselves to be superbly competent. With Covid they got almost everything completely wrong with very damaging consequences.

          1. Mickey Taking
            May 27, 2023

            which reminds me of the WHO’s song ‘Won’t get fooled again’ by Pete Townsend (1971).
            Last line – “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.”

      2. BOF
        May 27, 2023

        +1 LL
        Government loves inflation. It reduces government debt.

      3. Christine
        May 27, 2023

        You are right, it is their plan and the plan of the WEF. All part of levelling up for the poorest and levelling down for the middle classes. As you say more and more people are being sucked into higher rate tax and inheritance tax because the allowances are not increasing with inflation. Even if inflation stabilises it still leaves people paying these exorbitant taxes. A clever move for the treasury to claw more taxes from the people for the long term.

  3. Wanderer
    May 27, 2023

    I’m no economist. But who pays the BoE staff? Us, I guess. Would having a pay model that reflected how accurate their forecasts and ability to meet targets help?

    I know target-setting in the public sector has had “mixed results”, but the current way they are doing things is hugely damaging. I don’t need to be an economist to sense that.

    1. Lifelogic
      May 27, 2023

      I know someone who recently took a job at the BoE extremely good benefit packages, excellent pensions, private medical and dental cover loads of “working” from home and flexible hours….

      1. Cuibono
        May 27, 2023

        Yes, back in the day many around here used to take the train up to London to work there.
        Benefits second to none!

      2. Mickey Taking
        May 27, 2023

        Did they have to know anything about a) the Economy stupid b) learning from mistakes c) reading suitable advice from people who have been there, done that? If 3 answers are all No! what a great job to retire or get sick on.

  4. Bloke
    May 27, 2023

    A Treasury being guided a bank that lacks self-control is like a Kingdom being led by a Jester.

    1. Lifelogic
      May 27, 2023

      Well we now have a King who seems to want not to discourage open door, mass legal and illegal immigration, yet thinks we should eat very expensive organic food, heat with expensive intermittent energy build on his crown estate (and approves of the net zero war on CO2 plant food religion. This while flying on thousands of miles PA on private jets, helicopters, driving Aston Martins and heating his several huge palaces. Is this not a “jester” or perhaps just deluded gross hypocrisy or selective blindness.

    2. Cuibono
      May 27, 2023

      Exactly so…
      A Jester, who ( as all jesters do), pokes fun at the Kingdom
      And makes certain there are plenty of banana skins on the ground!
      World turned upside down.
      The Kingdom is made foolish and the Jester is king of the castle!

  5. Lifelogic
    May 27, 2023

    The problem is not really inflation it is Sunak and Andrew Bailey making the pound worth far less than £1 with their currency debasement money printing policies. The gold price in two years is up 18.5% in £1 terms (or rather the value of the £1 has fallen by this %) so if you were paying in gold there is no sig. inflation.

    What is needed is a government that ditches the misguided net zero energy religion and culls the endless government waste and cuts vast over regulation of everything and cuts and simplifies taxes. Alas this fake “Conservative” government has the opposite agenda in all these respects.

    1. Pauline Baxter
      May 27, 2023

      Lifelogic. Agreed.
      The Nonconservative Con Party is very good at ditching a good leader – Truss – for a bad leader Sunak.
      Of course Boris was the worst of the lot for the net zero religion.
      But he got them into power – stinking big majority, to Get Brexit Done.
      It strikes me that Sunak has changed sides over Brexit. He was 100% LEAVE but now seems hell bent on Re-join.
      After all, which side is his bread buttered on now?
      I.e. what does his Central Office and therefor majority of it’s M.P.s favour?
      Your final sentence sums it up perfectly. What’s more us – the voters, the electorate, have really no viable alternative.

  6. Nigl
    May 27, 2023

    I see Hunt has said he would accept a recession if it got inflation down. Reducing government expenditure is a normal lever but of course, that would result in a pile on from Labour about Tory cuts and would not be acceptable to an administration already in trouble. So he continues to pour petrol on the fire pretending to put it out.

    1. Mark B
      May 27, 2023

      Oh how generous of him. I wonder if he will lose his business, job and home ?

      Silly me, of course he won’t, he is in a safe seat,

  7. Donna
    May 27, 2023

    “There is talk of needing a recession to control inflation” …… coming from Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer no less.

    Why is Bailey still in a job Sir John?

    I guess that, even with the appalling immigration figures and the continuing invasion of our country by criminal migrants (aided and abetted by the Border Farce) The Blob and the Tory Party Grandees aren’t yet confident enough that they’ve lost the next General Election to the even worse Labour Party.

  8. Matt
    May 27, 2023

    Why did the Bank not? etc etc… well the answer is we got to take back control but thing is none of us were properly trained for this new freedom not even the Bank although don’t think we would be in such a state now if Carney was still at the helm. But we complainrd to loudly about him as well and scared him off.

  9. agricola
    May 27, 2023

    Why do we have to return to the Bank of England day after day. We know they, along with government are less than competent organisations. We have to live with the consequences of it. The whole panoply of what we refer to as the blob, current and past government being a part of it, have missmanaged a sovereign United Kingdom with intent, since the people decided they wished out of the EU.
    In 2022/2023 immigration reached an unprecedented 1,200,000. 594,000 people chose to leave the UK. This resulted in a better sounding 606,000 Nett Immigration figure. I concede that some of the 594,000 may have been returning to their home country, but the majority were a massive vote of no confidence in the way in which government conducts itself, its failures at every turn, and the consequences for themselves if they stayed. Incompetence may start at the BoE , but it now runs deep in every aspect of the way in which the UK is run.

    1. agricola
      May 27, 2023

      Please be aware that it is 1,200,000 immigrants who will impact on our infrastructure, not just the 606,000 . They are infinitely more likely to be dependant on UK infrastructure than were the 594,000 who left our shores.
      Many immigrants are required to work in areas where we in the UK have failed to train our own population. Insanely in my judgement, we saddle any graduating nurse with £30,000 of debt before they start work. What sort of idiots penalise students training in all the areas of medicine, science, and engineering where we need students and graduates. Government idiots I am sad to say. One could go on at length but ib deference to moderation I wilk leave it at that.

      1. Hat man
        May 27, 2023

        What sort of idiots, you ask, Agricola? The people who in 2010 were ideologically obsessed with foisting American-style student loans on British students, that they would be saddled with for much of their working lives. The people who rejected the idea of investing in the future of a well-educated, civilised society where grants to students made it possible for millions to receive a university education their parents could not dream of. The people who waited till September 2020, many months after the Covid outbreak to give a training grant of £5k to nurses working on the front line in our hospitals. You might call them ‘idiots’, I call them something worse.

  10. Dave Andrews
    May 27, 2023

    What do you mean Germany is in recession whilst the UK escaped? That’s not the narrative. I know, let’s hammer UK industry with a massive corporation tax hike to set things right.
    The UK needs to fail so we can blame it on Brexit.

  11. majorfrustration
    May 27, 2023

    Not convinced that revising the models will do it. Perhaps changing those in charge would be a better alternative.

    1. Donna
      May 27, 2023

      It needs both. But we’ll get neither.

      The Not-a-Conservative-Government doesn’t WANT to.

  12. Margaret
    May 27, 2023

    The problem is the inability to think about all future scenarios and have a plan to counteract rapid change.We really need some good philosophers who have the mental agility to deal with the hard facts and pushme pullme of finance.

  13. George Brooks
    May 27, 2023

    We have Governor who needs to be replaced PDQ and is clearly out of his depth, plus a chancellor with three company failures to his credit and now displaying about as much business acumen as a log of wood. It is not surprising that we are now in a COMPLETE MESS!!!!!!!

  14. Cuibono
    May 27, 2023

    The wooden clogs with theory flirt
    And grind our economy into the dirt
    They are cloaked in innocent camouflage…
    But doesn’t it all seem like sabotage?

    1. Narrow Shoulders
      May 27, 2023

      There was a bad banker named Bailey
      Who printed ever more money gayley
      He then sold off our gilts
      To make our economy wilt
      And make us poorer and poorer daily

      1. Cuibono
        May 27, 2023

        Ah…well done!
        This dreadful govt. in verse.
        And you agree with me…which is nice!

  15. Christine
    May 27, 2023

    As the production of food is reduced prices will increase, and as more energy is imported we can be held hostage by foreign countries, as wages rise more people will pay higher taxes. I see nothing on the horizon to make me think inflation will come down and I don’t think the BoE or the Chancellor actually want this. Rishi Sunak just makes empty promises but of course, he and his family can just leave the country and live off the proceeds of their digital ID fortune. Most of the British people don’t have this option. We and our descendants will have to live for generations paying the cost of this blatant raid on our country.

  16. Berkshire Alan
    May 27, 2023

    Afraid the so called experts are proving they are no such thing, failure, failure, failure, yet they still hold their jobs, and that is why the running of this Country is now becoming impossible.
    We now have tens of thousands of people (may be even more) who have absolutely no skin in the game, who apparently cannot, or will not be held responsible, and who demand as a right, their own working conditions.
    John we have absolutely no hope whilst this situation continues, no matter who makes up the policy.
    It is clear to anyone who has any common-sense, that there is a deliberate campaign being launched against any Minister who tries to run against the tide by trying to put some accountability in place.
    The tail is wagging the dog, as the saying goes, and it is as clear as the light of day.

  17. Christine
    May 27, 2023

    My major concerns at the moment are:

    1) Sunak planning to sign the WHO treaty which gives them control over our health decisions and will cost us billions in additional contributions without any agreement from the British people or parliament.
    2) PESCO where Sunak is planning to give our armed forces over to the control of the EU.
    3) The attack on farming where the EU is planning to reduce meat production by one-third over the next few years which will cause shortages in our country.
    4) Controlling unsustainable levels of immigration.
    5) The introduction of a digital currency.

    What does the MSM concentrate on? A long-ago affair of a low-level talk show host, the speeding fine of an MP, and the ridiculous investigation into a piece of cake. What has happened to our media?

    The majority of the people are blissfully unaware of what’s coming and by the time they wake up, it will be far too late.

    1. Wanderer
      May 27, 2023

      +1 Christine. Especially that WHO Treaty. They could lock us down at their will, and make us pay them up to 5% ( I recall seeing this figure) of our GDP. This is an organisation where arguably Bill Gates and China call the shots.

      At least our host is asking for more debate. But he’s in a tiny minority.

    2. Pauline Baxter
      May 27, 2023

      Christine. I hadn’t heard about Sunak planning to sign the WHO treaty. Do you remember as I do, that Sir John assured us his Party had no intention of doing that?
      What a wonderful Party we are governed by – NOT.

      1. Christine
        May 27, 2023

        Penny Mourdaunt stood up in parliament and said this treaty was a good idea. For who? Just like Theresa May signing the immigration compact treaty against the will of the people they have every intention of signing it. Politicians should never sign us up to international treaties that give any control to foreign unelected bodies.

  18. Winston Smith
    May 27, 2023

    These people are not stupid, there must be another agenda. Anyway just continually complaining is not going to fix the problems with the MPC, OBR, Treasury the UK Government Executive. They are out of the control of our elected representatives. You fight against them and you end up like Boris, Liz and Dominic.

    1. Cuibono
      May 27, 2023

      Kind of reminds one of countries far, far away that one only ever heard rumours of …
      (It could NEVER happen here!)
      Where people were thrown into dungeons for having the wrong political view.

    2. Mickey Taking
      May 27, 2023

      and will you get to love Big Brother?

  19. Elli Ron
    May 27, 2023

    The triumvirate Bailey-Sunak-Hunt are simple minded people who have been promoted above their abilities, incompetent, elitist and out of their depth.
    They can each sing only a single tune, their “strategy” is to make us poor, their only election weapon is the bogyman – Starmer.

  20. glen cullen
    May 27, 2023

    Maybe because the Chancellor isn’t in charge of the BoE ….the UN and all its institutions are

  21. Ian B
    May 27, 2023

    There is of course a proper comparison.

    Personal (and it is Personal)interference by Politicians who were more concerned with massaging their own personal esteem and ego have created these very, very expensive regimes – the BoE, the OBR and the numerous Quangos that are just jobs-for-the-boys. All failures that are nothing more than Empire building for friends of friends, then dumping all mistakes on the taxpayer, no accountability no responsibility attached. These entities are of course recent inventions, before their creation how much did the same cost the TaxPayer? Was the previous setup as big a fail? 100’s of years of continuity all trashed for the sake of personal (very personal, the Country wasn’t asked)ego.

    Sir John, quite rightly you are asking the question about the failures of the BoE, but pull back a bit it is this Conservative Government and its 2 Chancellors Sunak & Hunt that are the boss, the managers of this mess, the BoE, the collective ‘Blob’. They refuse to manage anything other than grabbing more money from the TaxPayer to fund their own continuous failures. The Country could achieve a lot, if we had people not frightened of their own shadows, not frightened to say ‘Boo’, in fact anyone capable of managing – in charge.

  22. George Sheard
    May 27, 2023

    Hi john
    You keep telling us how the BOE are getting it wrong why are our MP’S doing something about it why aren’t the Media putting it on the front pages,
    or on the BBC news , or are they to busy witch hunting Boris Johnson something been and gone
    Thank you

  23. mickc
    May 27, 2023

    Gove was right about not trusting “experts”, the only thing he has ever been right about.
    Meanwhile he is basically re-introducing statutory tenancies for residential property and calling the end of the term of an Assured Shorthold “no fault eviction”. It isn’t, it is simply the end of an agreed term; both parties knew it would end.

    1. BOF
      May 27, 2023

      Gove, talks the talk, then walks the wrong walk.

  24. Cuibono
    May 27, 2023

    Not to mention the fact that the govt. is in the process of signing the U.K. up to a (literally) World Health Service where we fund healthcare for supposedly poorer countries.
    Where is the money going to come from?
    Oh….surely they aren’t going to make us even poorer?
    Not half they’re not…..

  25. Ian B
    May 27, 2023

    Sir John

    I notice elsewhere in the Media as you have infered that it is clear that the BoE has set a course of further damage the UK – beyond repair? Instead of letting things go they have to undermine the markets further with their policy on the ‘bond markets’. The UK was let off the predicted reaccession for the moment, so to ensure we get back on track with that down the line the BoE is creating further problems.

    They(the BoE) don’t seem to content with causing harm to the economy and tax payer costs so have set out a course to ensure they still get their big, big reaccession. However we must never lose sight the real boss of the BoE is not Andrew Bailey, but it is our 2 Chancellors Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt. No one is holding a gun to the heads of our 2 Chancellors to keep giving our money without accountability or responsibility attached to the BoE, it 100% their management decision. These 2 Chancellors seem hell bent on the UK’s destruction, you have to ask why.

    If the wrecking ball that is this Conservative Government is allowed to continue in the manor by the Conservative Party , it is inevitably 100% the Conservative Party’s fault.

  26. glen cullen
    May 27, 2023

    ”Norway’s Aker BP has made a much bigger-than-expected oil discovery in the North Sea. Preliminary estimates indicate a recoverable volume of 40 million-90 million barrels”

    But the UK doesn’t need any of the energy when we can import via interconnectors, energy from france …thank god for net-zero

  27. Ian B
    May 27, 2023

    Sir John

    If you look at the situations faced by the UK, High Tax, High Inflation, no resilient sustainable economy, High level Criminal boat people crashing(and trashing) our borders, the NHS, the ‘Collective Blob’ in charge calling the shots, BoE, OBR, Energy or more correctly No Energy resilience and capability. So on and so. There is one single fault line. The People, the Electorate voted in the Conservatives to get on and manage the UK with one of the biggest majorities on record. The Electorate empowered them to ‘manage’ as managers and legislators – so we could have forward momentum.

    What have we got, a shower, that just refuses its job, just refuses to ‘manage’. It is always someone else at fault. It isn’t!, as they say ‘the buck stops’ with them, they have been empowered by the ‘People’ to get on with it.

    What we get is speeches, talk, reviews, jetting the World to cosy up to WEF colleagues. All the people this ‘shower’ chooses to cosy up to do not vote in UK elections, do not pay their wages.

    The BoE is a clumsy concerning construct, that gets its power from those that are its managers – this Conservative Government.

  28. Bert+Young
    May 27, 2023

    Drastic change is necessary to re-align the economy . It is not just the BoE it is the direction of the Government and the influence of non-elected bodies . Judgement at the BoE is seriously at fault and change in its leadership and core management is now essential . We are losing influence in world affairs and failing to attract investment . The Sunak/Hunt mess must be cleared up .

    1. Jill
      May 27, 2023

      Have you heard about the WEF in somewhere called Davos in Switzerland? I read about them just the other day. It seems they’re very influential with the government.

      1. Mickey Taking
        May 27, 2023

        …all governments in the world barring China, N.Korea, Russia – – get the drift?

        1. hefner
          June 3, 2023

          Putin was in Davos in 2021, Xi in 2017 and addressed it in 2022, only North Korea never participated.

  29. Ian B
    May 27, 2023

    Stolen from elswehere
    “The truth is the Conservative party has left us. We did not leave them. They are now unfit to Govan under the leadership of a man who got his job because his globalist masters wanted it that’s not democracy that’s aTitanic state” @Brian Edwards

    1. Ian B
      May 27, 2023

      @ian B
      The above was stolen by me from here – Can she save the Tory party?

  30. Denis+Cooper
    May 27, 2023

    I go back to the spring of 2009 and Chancellor Alistair Darling’s letters to Bank Governor Mervyn King:

    I posted a useful comment about those two letters in 2012, here:

    I then looked for the most recent letters they exchanged on the Asset Purchase Facility, here last month:

    According to Alistair Darling’s first letter the Asset Purchase Facility was to be a temporary measure during a period of instability and so there should be no exchange of letters about it 14 years later, yet here we are with Jeremy Hunt agreeing with what the Governor now plans to do to unwind it, following ‘instructions’ from the Monetary Policy Committee:

    “In accordance with our longstanding agreement, the scale, pace and nature of APF unwind is chosen solely to meet the MPC’s policy objectives.”

    and confirming that the Treasury will continue to indemnify the Bank against any losses.

  31. Anselm
    May 27, 2023

    I admit that my ideas on banking are minimal. But surely if you allow more and more money, then the value of money sinks? Supply and demand and all that?
    At the millennium, in Ripon, Yorks, my wife and i rented a three bedroom house in a nice country area for £450 a month (all inclusive).
    We have just guaranteed my granddaughter, in a similar area of North West England for £1000 a month (all inclusive) for a one bedroom flat.
    That is how far the pound has fallen in a quarter of a century.
    Why? i am sure it is not the bank’s fault alone.

    1. Jill
      May 27, 2023

      It’s not just the Pound, it’s also supply and demand. Many landlords have sold their properties because of increasing regulation so with an increasing population, rents have increased substantially.

  32. Ralph Corderoy
    May 27, 2023

    The Bank of England’s aims are not the official ones of the Government but those of the collusion of the world’s central banks to ‘manage’ the multiple sovereign-debt crises.

    The recession is not needed to lower inflation but to constrain supply so prices keeping ticking up nicely. The debt must be eroded over the long term. The ‘productivity growth’ mob were putsched out with the Bank of England’s help.

    Prime Minister Sunak’s one-of-five target to ‘halve inflation’ might be a victim given continuing high core inflation. But I’ve no sympathy as he treated me like a fool who doesn’t understand year-on-year inflation drops out given time. A fool twice over for another of the five to be to lower illegal immigration when it’s legal immigration doing the harm.

  33. ukretired123
    May 27, 2023

    Today Andrew Neil warns the same as SJR has been telling us for months:-
    Tanking the economy just to keep Rishi Sunak’s ill-advised promise on inflation is the economics of the madhouse.
    Sums up the nutcase nonsense in a nutshell.

  34. William Long
    May 27, 2023

    It is clear from his remarks yesterday that the elitist Chancellor Hunt considers the Bank is doing a very good job, so I am afraid that the chance of anything changing for the better under this Government is zero.

  35. Bryan Harris
    May 27, 2023

    On another matter:

    A letter from six Conservative MPs to Andrew Mitchell, discusses WHO’s “ambition” in transitioning “from an advisory organisation to a controlling international authority” like the European Union.

    British Members of Parliament (“MPs”) say a new pandemic treaty will give the United Nations’ World Health Organisation (“WHO”) the power to impose lockdowns on signatories, despite corporate media claims to the contrary.

    Thank you for being a part of the opposition to this dreadful treaty — something so many of us have already cottoned on to.

    Just a shame that so many other MPs are blind…Or?

    1. Mickey Taking
      May 27, 2023

      I think they must be ‘casting their eyes on something profitable’ ?

  36. Narrow Shoulders
    May 27, 2023

    Printing money for the required support for 1.2 million extra people plus the increased prices driven by 1.2 million extra people is not in the forecast model.
    0.1% growth with 1.2 million extra people is not growth.

    There is a trend here and I want government and opposition to acknowledge it.

    Japan does not import people. They are doing OK.

  37. Original Richard
    May 27, 2023

    It’s not “continuing dreadful mismanagement” we’re seeing but a deliberate policy to destroy our wealth and then democracy.

    The excuse is the false claim of CAGW requiring the economy destroying chimera called Net Zero.

    Our PM, when Chacellor, said at COP26 that they would rewire the entire global financial system for Net Zero and we are now seeing what this means.

    1. Jill
      May 27, 2023

      Yes, Rishi Sunak made some very enthusiastic speeches to the World Economic Forum about Net Zero.

      I think he’s doing everything Klaus Schwab wants.

      Do you know why the World Economic Forum is so important to many politicians, Mr Redwood?

  38. Sakara Gold
    May 27, 2023

    The reason why interest rates are at 4.5% and likely will reach 5.25% before the end of the year is due to the stonking size of the national debt, now at £2.4TRILLION, which equates to ~104% of GDP

    UK debt is mostly short dated and is rolled over by the debt management office almost on a daily basis. The people who finance us want interest to compensate for the risk of lending to a country with no exports, where the government routinely spends more than it gets in taxation. The national debt is growing, not reducing; in effect we are borrowing money to pay the interest on our debts, inevitably this will cause hyperinflation

    We are currently paying about £80billion a year in interest, this is more than defence at ~£50billion. If the foreigners stop lending to us, we will get another sterling crisis with interest rates going up to maybe 10% which will cause a recession, with thousands unable to pay their mortgages and getting repossessed.

    Those holding gold bullion will survive, those with debt will be sleeping in carboard boxes in shop doorways – and getting moved on by the police every couple of hours.

  39. DOM
    May 27, 2023

    Will Mr Redwood formally condemn ULEZ which is little more than a thinly concealed attack on our civil right to move unhindered without interference from what has become a most serious and sinister ideology?

    It’s about time these so called small State, freedom loving MPS expose the cancer of Neo-Marxist progressive poison

    Reply Yes of course I oppose ULEZ

    1. Mickey Taking
      May 27, 2023

      and for years and years we all found ourselves following old lorries, coaches, vans, cars belching out clouds of black or blue smoke from a knackered engine…..and did we ever see Police pulling them over and having the poison towed away? No – we didn’t. But now we hound law abiding citizens trying to live their lives depending on low mileage cars that JUST fail a somewhat arbitrary measurement.

    2. glen cullen
      May 27, 2023

      How easy was it for our MPs to throw away our freedoms ….unless you’re elite & rich

  40. Barbara
    May 27, 2023

    ‘This is dreadful continuing mismanagement’

    One has to ask oneself why.

    If is not intentionally to cause harm, then why is it? If they deliberately wanted to crash the economy, what else would they be doing differently?

  41. Sir+Joe+Soap
    May 27, 2023

    The most obvious question is why your lot keep the Bank honchos in post.

  42. Bella
    May 27, 2023

    If we were still part of the EU we would still have had the ECB overseeing things it would have helped keep BOE more of its toes. However as someone else said we chose brexit instead but we were not prepared for it – none of us except John Redwood – wonder why he doesn’t put his own name forward for Governor or Chancellor or any of these important jobs since according to himself he’s so well informed.

    Reply I was not offered Chancellor which I would have accepted if offered. You do not apply for it. An MP cannot be Governor. The ECB made the same mistakes as the Bank of England and gave Euroland bad inflation.

  43. APL
    May 28, 2023

    “The Bank and recession”

    We have a sort of schizophrenia in government at the moment. According to Jeremy Hunt, that consummate businessman who made his millions selling courses to the British Council ( AKA the taxpayer ), .. “Britain is at risk of talking itself into economic decline, because of a growing sense of “insidious” and “corrosive” negativity … ”
    Then on the other hand we have Hew Pill, ..”Britons ‘need to accept’ they’re poorer”.

    So, which is it? Members of the governing administration telling us we’re going to be poorer, or we are not going to be poorer but it’s people like Hew Pill talking the economy down ?

    In actual fact, we know were are all poorer as a direct result of government policy. So while I detest Hew Pill from his well feathered nest ( £180,000 ) telling people living on an average salary ( £32,000 ), they should expect to be poorer, at least he was honest, if a little late to the party.

    Given that inflation has been raging in excess of 10% for the last two years, we already knew that, thank you Mr Pill.

    What we really need, is some performance related pay imposed on MPs and the mid to top tiers of the civil service. If the economy is taking a nose dive, then so should the pay and conditions of the people running the economy!

  44. Sea_Warrior
    May 28, 2023

    Perhaps the Bank should be ordered to put down the weapon.
    Meanwhile, in America, the Fed looks likely to put further stress on the banking system by raising rates again.

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