50 Comments

  1. Mark B
    June 8, 2023

    Good morning.

    Low interest rates also helped those (mostly rich people) who bought into stocks and shares. It created a housing bubble by which the government creamed off of people though Stamp Duty / Tax, something the government were not too bothered with as they would not be the ones carrying the can.

    China, Japan and other East Asian economies are export economies so could rely on exports to support their economy. They have cheaper energy and labour and lower regulations.

    But we are where we are. But what concerns me, I am very much with our kind host on this, the current government policy is solely based on bringing inflation down to the exclusion of everything else. Not cutting of the State budget. Not improvements to the States efficiency. Creating regulations (eg IR35) that are reducing growth. All negative.

    One last thing. It was good our kind host referred to bank defaults like Silicon Valley. What he fails to mention that SC was not the only one and that more have since collapsed.

    Hold on to your hats, we are in for a rough time !!

    1. Ian B
      June 8, 2023

      @Mark B

      This Conservative Government is about Socialism, Control and Punishment. They are not as you say interested in a balanced affordable State, as that is not in keeping with their Socialist ideology. They are not interested in Freedoms and Democracy, again that defeats their controlling methodology. To talk of enterprise it also a no, no. This Conservative Government is fighting to take up its position as a party of the metro, Woke, left and anyone else can get 

 They are working on the fear factor of the real Labour Party being worse, not that being a Conservative is about a prosperous UK.

      They forget Labour is owned by the Unions and they are not to happy to let their Party continue the ideals of exporting jobs.

    2. BOF
      June 9, 2023

      Mark B
      Unlike 2008 these bank collapses have taken place one by one, leaving time for each one to be forgotten before the next one takes place. Each time those banks are swallowed up by a bigger one.

      Is this being engineered to leave a small number of mega banks, making it easier to force CBDC’s on the world.

    3. hefner
      June 9, 2023

      Three US banks have failed since 01/01/2023, Silicon Valley Bank 10/03/2023, Signature Bank 12/03/2023, First Republic Bank 01/05/2023. (fdic.gov, ‘Failed bank list’; pewresearch.org, 11/04/2023, ‘Most US bank failures have come in a few big waves’; businessinsider.com, 01/05/2023, ‘Here is a list of the biggest failed banks’).

  2. Lifelogic
    June 8, 2023

    Indeed a sensible analysis JR.

    Allister Heath today is surely right too – “The arrogant Left are triumphant – and think they have a mandate to destroy Britain. The Left wrongly conflate public anger at the Tories with an ideological mandate for socialism.”

    In fact it is Tory Socialism that has created the anger – net zero, high taxes, expensive energy, open door migration, appalling Covid mis-handling, gross economic mismanagement, duff public services, waste everywhere you care to look


    1. miami.mode
      June 8, 2023

      You’re dead right there LL and Allister Heath is spot on the money. It’s been reported that Rishi Sunak will take personal responsibility if inflation is not halved by the end of the year. Is he mad or does he not realise that control (or lack of it) is basically held by the Bank of England?

    2. Ian B
      June 8, 2023

      @Lifelogic +1 ‘Tory Socialism’ the destruction of the UK. You have to ask why the Conservative Party is allowing this Conservative Government betray all those that voted for a ‘Conservative Government’. Is it the Party that is betraying the electorate or is Conservative MP’s that are ignoring the Party – Too subtle to comprehend.

    3. BOF
      June 9, 2023

      +1 LL

  3. Lifelogic
    June 8, 2023

    Mr Bean is right about electric cars
    If you are choosing your next vehicle on environmental criteria, the decision is more evenly balanced than the green lobby would have
    ROSS CLARK in the Telegraph today.

    Not really even finely balances in CO2 terms keeping your old ICE car will almost always reduce overall CO2. Not that a little more CO2 is a serious issue anyway. Far cheaper too an EV can cost £1 a mile just in finance costs and depreciation even before fuel, insurance, maint
plus we have no spare low carbon electricity to charge then with anyway.

    1. Lifelogic
      June 8, 2023

      They get through tyres circa 30% more quickly too.

  4. Ken Marshall
    June 8, 2023

    “The disastrous performance of the UK over the last 13 years should lead to changes in the party that runs the UK”. There, I fixed it for you. I wouldn’t people to think you are again – yet again – trying to distract us from the lamentable failures of the Conservatives by trying to blame the banks

    1. Lifelogic
      June 8, 2023

      Bailey/Carney and the BoE certainly deserve a large share of the blame but then so does Sunak he was a disaster as Chancellor and is continuing the mistakes as PM.

    2. Donna
      June 8, 2023

      It doesn’t matter if the Governing Party changes from CON to Labour.

      International Institutions (like the UN), the Civil Service, Quangocracy (and to a large extent since Blair’s destructive Government, the Judiciary) hold the power. And they are all left-wing. Which is why, when we elect a supposedly Conservative Government, we still get Socialist policies.

      1. a-tracy
        June 8, 2023

        The question is, why are they all left-wing, Donna?

        They depend on a generous government to pay them extra wages and significant perks and benefits, from pensions, and early retirement, to extra free days off work, all not seen by the general taxpayer. They don’t want an austerity government trying to balance the books.

        These senior public servants don’t need significant private pensions (if any) or even private savings pots as they know how much they will be living on in retirement and don’t have to worry about it, so they spend today, and their children benefit from that today in the extra holidays they go on etc. Labour is offering them all significant pay increases; they can’t be thinking about the other side of that equation, just the businesses will pay more in their world.

      2. Timaction
        June 8, 2023

        Indeed. Bliar walked through all our institutions and public services and ensured selection processes matched his woke/left of centre ideology which is why we are where we are. After 13 years the Tory’s have done sweet fa to address it. In fact they’ve made it worse with “non equality laws” and net stupid , no cheap power and export our jobs and manufacturing. Whist they were about it put 5 million on welfare whilst importing 1.2 million annually, subsidised by the 46% of English taxpayers. Just go.

    3. Ian B
      June 8, 2023

      @Ken Marshall +1
      The Banks or at least the BofE is a Government Construct, this Conservative Government as custodians of taxpayers money bail the BofE regularly so which ever way you shake the BofE’s failures are this Conservative Governments failures. The Conservative Government could cancel this absurdity tomorrow, but refuse just as all their other responsibilities to manage. Interesting experiment(political meddling) for something that used to work comfortably for the UK.
      Another absurdity is we have the leader of the Conservative Party jetting around the World, stroke his personal esteem, and telling people that the UK is a fit place to manage the Worlds A1 . He cant even manage the UK, because he refuses to.

  5. DOM
    June 8, 2023

    John’s dog with a bone obsession with pinning sole blame for inflation onto CB’s is simply disingenuous and an attempt to divert attention away from the moral bankruptcy of his own now cancerous party who encourage ever greater levels of debt financed spending (INFLATION) as they appease and pander to Labour’s Neo-Marxist bloc that now controls this shithole of a nation.

    We are seeing an unholy alliance in which the Tory party climb into
    bed with the Left and to hell with freedom, values and the civil world, effectively the death knell for a world we are once cherished

    When fascist Labour come to power what we have seen under Marxist appeasing Tories will seem a most wonderful dream. Labour will demonise and criminalise those they despise and you don’t know me to tell you who that is, just look in the mirror

    1. Cuibono
      June 8, 2023

      Well. I just said something a bit bad ( I suppose, on reflection) about CBs and he deleted it.
      So he must think that they serve a purpose? Or deserve our respect?
      The leftist association in’t all that surprising.
      Social reform/control/interference in all its glory comes directly from our 18th century banking families.
      And yes
as I have mentioned b4 tories really have landed themselves in a dangerous position.

      Re CBS
Maybe just stop printing money?

      1. Cuibono
        June 8, 2023

        *CBs

    2. Mike Wilson
      June 8, 2023

      that now controls this shithole of a nation.

      Which half the world would give their right arm to live here. Notwithstanding our utterly useless system of government, I’m bloody glad I was born here and not in 
. India, China, Russia, Africa, South America and most other countries.

      1. BMargaret
        June 9, 2023

        Well said Mike . Whilst I don’t agree with much of the general management,I think that COVID was managed according to scientific data.I agreed with lockdown and didn’t want immigrants travelling through from town to town spreading Sars if at all possible.Business ‘s were affected due to fear from the owners and public quite wisely looking after themselves.I don’t like dramatic comments about mismanagment as this only leads to more state money spent due to the big mouths. There were mistakes and.mistakes continue to be made but hyping every aspect of issues is not going to help.I work in an area where people’s lives have a potential to be lost every day: the saying keep calm and carry on is an ongoing pursuit as every single life is as important as the next.

    3. Ian B
      June 8, 2023

      @DOM +1

  6. Lynn Atkinson
    June 8, 2023

    Just waiting for your lecture, but regarding your tweet on AI, – the departure is a fundamental one. In the USA there were two jobs: programmers who worked out the logic flows and Coders who coded the programme they were given into whichever computer language was required. In the U.K. it’s a single job.
    It’s very reasonable and doable to get the Computer to do its own coding, in fact computers are ideal coders, also they can scan defective code for coding errors in nanoseconds. But AI devolves the logic flows to the computer. It creates the ‘objectives; and the means to attain the objectives. This is an extraordinary act of surrendering power – and of course loss of control is what is at the core of most human misery. The added horror is that computers reel time in – they are so fast that they can compress what we would do over a hundred years into a matter of minutes.
    Everybody will have experienced the frustration of following computer instructions, or even computer manual instructions, and finding that it does not work. There is no way out. That is what we are in for as the default for every activity.
    Allowing the computers to become the system analysts and programmers is the point of no return.

    1. Sharon
      June 8, 2023

      Remember Little Britain? Matt Lucas and David Walliams phrase, “ computer says, no!”

      1. Cuibono
        June 8, 2023

        A lot of those comedy shows were very predictive. Maybe getting us to laugh at things so as to diffuse the shock value when they eventually happened? Or to poke fun at any normal, outraged response?
        There is an 1970s/80s (?) American TV Sit Com on Youtube called “Barney Miller” that foretells a great deal.
        If only people had listened rather than laughed.

    2. Mickey Taking
      June 8, 2023

      I remember back in the 60s reading a book, possibly Colossus, where the West designed and built a computer system to hand detection, control and defence of nuclear strategy to the machine.
      After a minute of ‘whirring’ ha ha – it briefly reported ‘there is another machine in Russia’.
      I can’t recall how it is agreed to turn them off, but possibly chaos ensued.
      8.29

    3. a-tracy
      June 8, 2023

      My husband is very tech-savvy writes his own programs and has been worried about this for some time. Even for basic things, I remember him speaking to my daughter’s English teacher about plagiarism on essays being done at home and how the Head of English ensures that essays submitted are the child’s work. ChatGPT will write an essay or dissertation for you entirely now where you change little bits of it, so everyone will think this 2-second solution is great at first. I would want teenagers submitting hand-written essays in exam room conditions without preplanning to check for their thought processes and writing skills.

      When our children accept these machines doing all the lifting for them they’re not asking themselves what they are useful for.

    4. Ian B
      June 8, 2023

      @Lynn Atkinson +1
      I wonder why so many of the large US Banks and finance Houses have blocked what some call Ai, blocked its web scraping and so on. So this newly named Large Language Model, some call it Ai, is only as good as the data it can steal – its just theft of others published work not intelligence. That as the Banks see it is a problem, as it also steals, logins and passwords, the deception arrived at is the continuous remodelling of the answer based on ‘keystroke’ tracking/hacking.

  7. Bloke
    June 8, 2023

    The edifying content should prevent future Chancellors and BoE Governors from wasting the UK and help transform our economy into excellence. The existing ones fiddling with small change and enormous losses are too gormless to realise.

  8. Lynn Atkinson
    June 8, 2023

    Just waiting for your lecture, but regarding your tweet on AI, – the departure is a fundamental one. In the USA there were two jobs: programmers who worked out the logic flows and Coders who coded the programme they were given into whichever computer language was required. In the U.K. it’s a single job.
    It’s very reasonable and doable to get the Computer to do its own coding, in fact computers are ideal coders, also they can scan defective code for coding errors in nanoseconds. But AI devolves the logic flows to the computer. It creates the ‘objectives; and the means to attain the objectives. This is an extraordinary act of surrendering power – and of course loss of control is what is at the core of most human misery. The added horror is that computers reel time in – they are so fast that they can compress what we would do over a hundred years into a matter of minutes. As far as I know the computers are NOT loaded with the body of law and instructed to obey the law. Even if they were the law would be tested as never before. The AI computer will obey the letter of the law but not the spirit. The incompetence of the lawmakers will be exposed for all to see – thus far lawmakers have enjoyed the goodwill of the nation which helps them by obeying the ‘spirit of the law’.
    Everybody will have experienced the frustration of following computer instructions, or even computer manual instructions, and finding that it does not work. There is no way out, just round and round – and the computer is content to continue the circle indefinitely. That is what we are in for as the default for every activity.
    Allowing the computers to become the system analysts and programmers is the point of no return.

  9. Berkshire Alan
    June 8, 2023

    Many thanks John for your views and explanations on a subject that is normally way above my normal pay grade.

    Meanwhile Sunak and Hunt and many before them, carry on as before, with more taxation, more spending, more control. !

  10. Cuibono
    June 8, 2023

    Apparently ( or so I read) you can’t have wars without central banks.
    Or at least the FINANCING is so much more fraught.
    What a thought, eh?

  11. glen cullen
    June 8, 2023

    I see on the BBC that our dear leader is stepping down at the next election 
whatever will the Tories do without Caroline Lucas

    1. Mark B
      June 8, 2023

      I think the changes made to the voting system means that not as many students in Brighton will be able to vote for her ?

    2. Mark
      June 8, 2023

      They will put her in the Lords. I saw that the people of Brighton finally got fed up with their Green council which lost 13 seats and is now Labour run. Perhaps she is doing a chicken run?

      1. Ashley
        June 8, 2023

        To join all the lefty green crap, deluded nutters in the Lords I suppose.

      2. Berkshire Alan
        June 8, 2023

        Mark
        Last time I went to Brighton (2 years ago) got totally confused with 20mph speed limits, one way systems, Controlled Entry Zones (whatever they mean) and the huge cost of parking, that was if you could work out how to use the machines. Gave up in the end and went to the Marina where Car Parking is free for 4 hours if you use some of the services (coffee shop) etc.
        Understand a few years ago, it was reported that they spent ÂŁmillions on building a lot of new cycle lanes, then dug them up later because no one was using them, and traffic was at a stand still !.
        Not in a hurry to go back which is a shame as it used to be so quaint and interesting, although always busy.

  12. Bryan Harris
    June 8, 2023

    ‘The great western inflation should lead to changes at the central banks’

    Excellent speech – Succinct and accurate sense.

    I can’t see the Central Banks making any changes – they are doing a great job in meeting their goals, set by WEF policies.

    No doubt that the exec’s will be slapping themselves on the back, awarding themselves a huge bonus’ on the back of their failures in serving the people of the UK.

  13. Bert+Young
    June 8, 2023

    Whether the capability exists and the determination to get rid of the key staff at the BoE is another matter . Our current leadership does not have the guts to do this ; the evidence is clear enough and the public have had enough . It is one thing for a ” Harry ” to go public about the state our ” rock bottom ” condition it is another for the rest of us – we are powerless to act . I have little to no faith that the public can and will react .

  14. Original Richard
    June 8, 2023

    “What we have to note first of all is that over a very troubled period
.we’ve seen very different experiences of inflation
.The Asian [banks] kept their inflation under remarkably good control whilst the western central banks all failed dismally
.”

    This is all part of the plan and what was meant at COP 26 when our PM, then Chancellor said:

    “So our third action is to rewire the entire global financial system for Net Zero.”

    The totally false CAGW narrative, for which there is no historical, theoretical, experimental or even evidence in worsening weather or increasing global temperature, that anthropogenic emissions of CO2, a trace gas at 0.04% of the atmosphere, which is necessary for all life on earth and should be increased to aid plant growth and reduce famines, is used to force through an impossible energy transition from cheap, abundant, reliable fossil fuels and nuclear to expensive, meagre and unreliable renewables in order to destroy the Western economies and democracies.

  15. Cuibono
    June 8, 2023

    Oh

    How about

    Don’t rely on AI predictions!!
    Don’t use them at all?
    Scrap AI
Save Lives.

    1. glen cullen
      June 8, 2023

      Please call it technology, as AI doesn’t exist

  16. Barbara
    June 8, 2023

    I can’t put it better than economist Emile Woolf did, a few days ago:

    “To this day Bailey can’t understand, let alone acknowledge, that it was his Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee that applied Quantitative Easing as the remedy for the widespread economic inertia it had actually caused by its furloughs, slashed interest rates, irresponsible mortgage-lending, guarantees of non-performing loans and irrational support for zombie businesses. Last year he persisted in claiming that the consumer price-rises taking hold were “merely transitory”. Only last week he conceded, in an uncharacteristic flash of humility, that important lessons remained to be to be learnt at the Bank of England, notably that its 2pc inflation target is nothing but a woeful aspiration if you don’t know (i) what “inflation” means, and (ii) what causes it.“

  17. Cuibono
    June 8, 2023

    Apologies.
    My comment possibly wasn’t deleted.
    My comments are disappearing again ( unless actually deleted).
    Technology!

  18. Mark
    June 8, 2023

    I enjoyed the talk with its historical and international context. I still think Amstel Rothschild had it right, which is why I support your idea that central banks should be under more democratic control. I think it’s also clear that CBDC is targeted at precisely the kind of autocratic control that exists in China, and which we despise.

  19. Winston Smith
    June 8, 2023

    Thank you very much for continuing to spread the word about how things can be done differently and better.

    Meanwhile others are still spreading other counter arguments. Below is a Sun on Sunday extract;

    “Liz Truss has sparked a furious row after trying to hand out around 12 resignation gongs to close pals who propelled her to No10 – despite her disastrous reign. The ex PM only lasted 49 days in the top job and presided over a disastrous mini Budget that sent Britain’s markets into meltdown.”

  20. Howzit
    June 8, 2023

    So PM Sunak has completed his business in Washington and is now on his way home – but we still know little about the trade deal we were promised.

    Then looking to the end of 2024 with the US election coming and probably the UK elections here coinciding but with Labour getting in doesn’t look well for US UK trade pacts either especially if Trump is returned to office in the US?

    Reply Trump offered a trade deal but EU blocked it before our departure was complete and Mrs May agreed with EU.

    1. hefner
      June 9, 2023

      As told by Owen Paterson?
      The Express on 28/11/2018 offers a slightly different reading of the event.

  21. formula57
    June 8, 2023

    It is refreshing to hear the myth of central bank independence being challenged.

    What an age we live in when some explanation (just before 12.00 minutes) to justify mentioning China is needed. I am glad you gave us the full picture which of course was only possible with reference to the PBOC.

    (Given the host calls itself All Souls and not “the Few Souls with access to a good microphone” it would be nice if it provided questioners with access to equipment allowing for better quality sound.)

  22. rose
    June 9, 2023

    Unanswerable analysis and criticism, I should have thought.

    Richard Walker of Iceland was diplomatic and bland talking to Ferrari on the wireless this morning, except on one subject: he said, “the Windsor Framework will be very expensive for us and very complicated.” I don’t know why, but I had thought the big boys might take it in their stride. So who has benefited?

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