The government needs to work out the costs of providing for migrants

Now the government wants to control legal migration it needs to calculate the costs of new legal migrants into low paid jobs to taxpayers. The government now we are out of the EU can make legal migration any amount it likes, from the 750,000 it was at its peak to zero. Every legal migrant  needs a permit from government. Government allows large numbers of low paid workers and students to come.

The Treasury wrongly thinks this boosts our financial position. It is true it adds to GDP but it also adds substantially to public spending and may reduce GDP per  capita. The Treasury/OBR model once again is misleading and encourages bad policy.

As I have argued before every migrant needs housing, healthcare, utility capacity, roadspace and other public services. My forecast of £250,000 for the capital set up costs and early years free services still stands. Ministers should get an up to date government figure and feed it into OBR models.

 

Students pay more to the universities which makes sense for their costs. It does not necessarily work for the state if they bring dependants who qualify for free public services and subsidised housing.

Government also needs to take account of associated costs and problems. 750,000 extra  people need a lot of housing. Even where they can afford their own it places considerable upwards pressure on rents which in turn increases general housing benefit costs. It makes it more difficult for those already legally settled here to obtain and afford a home of their own. More pressure on the NHS makes it difficult to get waiting lists down. Inviting in more staff for  the  NHS also creates more demand for NHS staff.

UK communities are full of people who warmly welcome refugees, invited Ukrainians into their homes after the invasion and accept the need for  some economic migrants. Many people also think 650,000 a year  is far too many, creating strains on public services, housing. infrastructure and community abilities to welcome and adapt.

 

President Biden expelled more than 1 million illegal migrants from the Mexican border last year. France is sending illegals back to Italy. Various EU countries are considering ways of cutting migration. The EU is working on a system of quotas and requirements for member states to take their share of the many entering the EU. The UK now we are out the EU can cut our very large legal migration figures and will not have to take migrants arriving elsewhere in the EU. So government should get on with cutting legal migration as promised in 2019.

 

 

 

128 Comments

  1. Mark B
    December 8, 2023

    Good morning.

    Why do people want to come to a small, over crowded, cold, over taxed country with poor public services ?

    Because they are FREE.

    If you want to stop MASS IMMIGRATION all you have to do is STOP FREE AT THE POINT OF USE SERVICES.

    If people coming here really had to fend for themselves they would stop coming. Those with skills and money would not be affected and neither will the rest of us.

    1. BOF
      December 8, 2023

      Yes Mark B, and in the case of illegal migrants, free accommodation, free money and free legal fees, even though they could afford thousands of pounds to get here.

      1. Ian Wraggg
        December 8, 2023

        The ones who really control us will never stop giving our resources to all and sundry. They are ashamed of us and our achievements so they see mass immigration as a penance.
        It is the same clowns that promote white privilege and want to rewrite our history.
        Short of a revolution I don’t see how we can change things.
        Voting Reform might be a start.

        1. glen cullen
          December 8, 2023

          Reform are the only party wanting tobreaking the mould while all of the other parties want more of the same

      2. Ian B
        December 8, 2023

        @BOF & Mark B +1
        And wht do those with 40 years ccontribtion to a State Pension and the NHS get? What do the indiginous homeless get? They get their Human Rights shattered for supporting a weak Leadership and Government

    2. Donna
      December 8, 2023

      Milton Friedman “‘You cannot simultaneously have free immigration and a welfare state”

      Yet that’s exactly what the Westminster Uni-Party has been operating on behalf of the Globalists for decades …. and passing the bill to British Taxpayers. No wonder “our” Public Services can’t cope and constantly demand more and more money.

    3. Narrow Shoulders
      December 8, 2023

      Reform of the benefits system would go along way to making this country a better place. Maybe after that they could look at tax.

    4. iain gill
      December 8, 2023

      you also have to stop the black market, and tax perks for immigrants.
      a situation where immigrants can come here, work, but pay no tax, or minimal tax, and undercut workers who are paying the full tax burden clearly leads to distortions.

      1. glen cullen
        December 8, 2023

        +many

    5. a-tracy
      December 8, 2023

      Mark, I wonder how many people without national insurance numbers are being treated on our NHS and not rebilled back to their Country of origin? Spain has a handle on that, and you have to have a travel card or travel insurance before treatment or pay upfront.

      I also wonder how many people on waiting lists now are immigrants who have been here less than three years.

      1. hefner
        December 8, 2023

        When one goes to the NHS they are asked their NHS number not their NIN. And one gets such a NHS number the first time they go to their GP practice when they are asked to register.

        nhs.uk ‘How to register with a GP surgery’.
        ‘It is free to register. One does not need proof of address or immigration status, ID or NHS number’.

        1. A-tracy
          December 9, 2023

          Hefner, do you truthfully believe that when people go to a GP surgery without either NHS number of NIN number they are sent away? I know people who were treated without either or a GHIC or old EHIC card. People are treated in A&E without them too.

          The NHS could improve their turnover by charging people not entitled to free care and rebilling heath cards. Spanish hospitals manage it. Many EU countries bill up front and you have to claim back. We are a soft touch and people with serious conditions come here for treatment.

  2. Lemming
    December 8, 2023

    “France is sending illegals back to Italy. Various EU countries are considering ways of cutting migration. The EU is working on a system of quotas and requirements for member states to take their share of the many entering the EU.” Oh really? Is that so? maybe then we should join the EU. As you have yourself now admitted, it’s a place where countries are free to protect their own borders

    Reply On the contrary. They will be told to take more by the EU and cannot control the level of legal migration which we can!

    1. Lifelogic
      December 8, 2023

      To reply “cannot control the level of legal migration which we can” well we could if the government had any political will to do. But 750K net last year shows zero political will to even try.

      Order of next PM betting odds is now.

      Keir Starmer
      David Cameron
      Kemi Badenoch
      Penny Mordaunt
      Suella Braverman
      Boris Johnson

      More chance of one of the other five than Starmer the odds suggest. But who would want EUphile, abandon ship, did not even prepare for a leave vote outcome Cameron or Mordaunt who still thinks the Covid vaccines saved hundreds of thousands of lives and answers Bridgen’s sensible question with stupidity or lies & total contempt. Boris Johnson, Cameron and Mordaunt like Sunak are all pushers of the absurd net zero lunacy which no one numerate, logical, rational with any understanding of energy or physics or climate could sensible back.

      1. Mickey Taking
        December 8, 2023

        You got that all wrong, it should be:
        Keir Starmer
        Angela Rayner
        Mick Lynch
        Gary Lineker
        Gary Neville

    2. Sir Joe Soap
      December 8, 2023

      We can but don’t and wont under your party’s tenure, so why on earth do you stick with this bunch?

    3. Timaction
      December 8, 2023

      Just why is our weak Government not sending back France’s illegal immigrants the same day without processing? It seems to me the rest is just fluff and cover by the Westminster wasters. No need for Rwanda and the rest of the hot air. Turn around policy or France considered a hostile state for not controlling THEIR borders and illegals. They are passing us THEIR problem.

      1. glen cullen
        December 8, 2023

        100% correct ……at least try it just once

  3. DOM
    December 8, 2023

    A snake slithered into power in 1997 and it’s been downhill ever since. The main parties including John’s can try and divert our attention onto the state of the economy as much as they like but the aim is primarily social and demographic reconstruction and all parties are complicit in the woke globalist rearrangement of the west

    1. Lifelogic
      December 8, 2023

      1997 it was then a 179-seat majority for Blair over, no change no chance, John (ERM fiasco and EUphile) Major (and he has still not said sorry for all the pointlessly lost jobs, home repossessed, suicides… caused by his ERM lunacy). Net zero is far worse than the ERM by perhaps 1000+ times if really implemented.

      So what will be the Majority next year for Starmer be 300+ perhaps? And Starmer like Sunak has entirely the wrong policies too net zero, ever more taxes, more EU alignment, open door immigration, ever more red tape, ever more market rigging, kill good private schools and an ever larger government living off the back of a diminishing and leaving productive sector…

    2. Sir Joe Soap
      December 8, 2023

      At least Blair was elected fair and square!

      1. Berkshire Alan
        December 8, 2023

        S J S

        Yes he was, but only because the Conservatives could not control anything at the time, including their own Mp’s

        Sound familiar ?

      2. Lifelogic
        December 8, 2023

        Blair was elected thanks to Major’s (and many other’s foolishness in supporting the disastrous ERM in an attempt to get the UK into the EURO. Then the pathetic man did not even say sorry for the disaster. Thankfully they failed. Net zero is 1000+ times worse than the ERM or will be if they really try to get to it. Totally moronic.

        No change not chance with Sunak now!

      3. paul cuthbertson
        December 8, 2023

        Blair brought in postal voting to ensure he stayed there along with his bull dog Alistair Campbell.

    3. Ian B
      December 8, 2023

      @DOM +1 Fight Democracy daily, never defend it, the ‘Great Reset’ must be the overide.

    4. Mitchel
      December 8, 2023

      Very interesting comment in a filmed interview this week from Alexey Arestovich,formerly Zelensky’s most senior adviser (who,in November,announced he would stand for the Presidency in the next elections -whenever those are next held!):

      “You know what I think is our greatest tragedy in the conflict of the Globalists and the Realists,we made a bet on the wrong side.We kind of shed blood to end up in the losing camp.As long as I see the President of Germany* who flew to Qatar and was forgotten to be met and couldn’t get off the plane for half an hour until the Qatari officials did something and they tell us Putin is isolated internationally but Putin in the UAE was almost met with a horse parade.”

      He was also speaking in Russian rather than Ukrainian as most educated Ukrainians would.

      (*extraordinary incident last week when Olaf Scholz arrived in Doha,stood at the top of the stairs to find no-one there to receive him and had to go back inside his plane until the Qataris could be bothered to rustle up some official to meet him.A further indication of how precipitously Germany’s glogal standing has collapsed over the past couple of years.

      1. R.Grange
        December 9, 2023

        Arestovich is a realist. He’s the leader Ukraine needs right now, if it’s going to get a negotiated peace rather than unconditional surrender. This time the Russians won’t allow Western countries to ruin peace negotiations as they did last year. Kiev will have to sign and keep to the agreed terms, or no more Ukraine. In the meantime we definitely shouldn’t send any more money or weapons to prolong the bloodshed. The US Congress is saying prioritize spending on domestic issues, so should we in this country.

    5. paul cuthbertson
      December 8, 2023

      DOM – Yes, SNAKE a true summing up of Blair., Have you heard Donald J Trump read out the words of the The Snake (by Oscar Brown) at his rallies.He is infroming HIS people.

  4. Michelle
    December 8, 2023

    It amazes me how so many people can’t grasp the basic fact that the more that come here, then the more pressure on services and resources. That in itself leads to the need for more in to help deliver and provide.
    Having students here isn’t an issue, it’s the staying on that’s the issue. Having seasonal workers to fill any short fall isn’t an issue as long as they return home and don’t become a permanent fixture.
    Ditto that for any guest worker. Other countries do not hand out citizenship like sweets as an automatic right after X years.
    This was Johnson’s excuse for amnesty for illegals.
    My sister-in-law spent most of her working life working abroad, over ten years in a Middle Eastern country and no question of being given citizenship.
    We’ve seen the problems it can bring when so many from all over the world make this their home, what happens in their heritage lands can play out on our streets.
    That is just one of the many problems it brings and why so many other countries do not and will not take in huge amounts of people on a permanent basis, even if they share a culture/religion.

    1. agricola
      December 8, 2023

      Spot on Michelle++++

    2. Lifelogic
      December 8, 2023

      Indeed all rather depressing, much vile anti-semitism in US and UK universities and indeed much of the Labour Party though – very poor leadership on this.

      1. paul cuthbertson
        December 8, 2023

        LL – Leadership – we do not have any any where and there is nobody of any calibre who I can see who could fulfil that role. We do not have a Donald J Trump.

    3. Peter Wood
      December 8, 2023

      Even the muppets in the Home Office, Health Dept. and I daresay No. 10 know this. The question is WHY are our government allowing large numbers of unskilled, culturally alien, mostly young men of military age, into the country. I find it hard to believe it is simple indifference or laziness, so the only other solution is it’s deliberate, for why?

    4. Berkshire Alan
      December 8, 2023

      Michelle

      I am sure most of the population understand, it’s our politicians that seem deaf, dumb and blind to the facts.
      I see it is being reported today that the Government has paid Rwander another £100,000,000 earlier this year on top of the original £120,000,000 to take about a couple of hundred of our illegals, apparently another £50,000,000 is due next April, That is about £1,000,000 per illegal, if they ever get sent.
      John this is absolute Lunacy !
      This is taxpayers money !

    5. Narrow Shoulders
      December 8, 2023

      Those same people who don’t consider the extra pressure on public services are the ones who think ever more money should be given to public services to “fix” them. Of course some one else “rich” can pay the taxes.

      The left are never holistic with your chequebook.

    6. Denis Cooper
      December 8, 2023

      I don’t want to suggest a way in which the government could fiddle the figures, but I think we should stop lumping “temporary” foreign residents such as students and their families in with “permanent” immigrants. Unfortunately we could never trust any of the main political parties to deal honestly with this because behind the public facade they are all in favour of unlimited and uncontrolled mass immigration on any pretext, legal or illegal. They have different sets of reasons – the Tories want to provide their business supporters with an inexhaustible supply of cheap biddable labour at public expense, the others are set upon diluting the hated white Anglo-Saxon population out of existence – but they all come back to the same secret desire to throw the flood gates wide open.

    7. Ian B
      December 8, 2023

      @Michelle +1

    8. MWB
      December 8, 2023

      Michelle, never underestimate the stupidity of the British, and certainly the English, electorate. Decade after decade of Con/Lab and we are in a worse mess than ever.

    9. Timaction
      December 8, 2023

      Indeed. The idea of cutting annual legal immigration from 1.2 million to 900,000 is a joke that we all have to pay with our taxes. Overwhelmed health, education, housing, non existent dentists, over crowding unless you’re an illegal as they have Human Rights, English people don’t. You couldn’t make up how bad the Tory’s have become. Anti English, one Nation Liberals hiding under a Tory flag!!
      Hanging on before an election just makes us all madder, we’re desperate to remove Rishy and his unelected junta.

  5. Lifelogic
    December 8, 2023

    It almost invariably does reduce GDP per capita it also lowers wages for others in the areas where they take jobs or work cash in hand or black market.

    THE Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden says it would be “insanity” to oust Rishi Sunak before the next election – split parties do not win elections and urged colleagues not to be “introspective”.

    Sure, but he is leading the party in totally the wrong direction over the cliff, so what is there to lose? Sunak is clearly for ever higher taxes, the net zero lunacy, ever more government spending, ever more red tape, the dreadful Windsor accord, ever more alignment with the EU, 750,000 PA low skilled net migration levels, rigged markets in energy, healthcare, cars, transport, housing, university degrees, schools, broadcasting… the country (and voters) want and need the compete reverse on all these issues.

    Another £10 on the surely anti-semitic, BBC blatant propaganda TV licence tax, it is still outrageously retained as a criminal offence despite promises to change this. Please stop paying them and simply do not watch live TV. Not that they will know even if you do.

    1. paul cuthbertson
      December 8, 2023

      LL – It does not matter which party you vote for or which party is “voted” in, the Globalasit UK WEF Establishment control and have done for centuries. Until the whole system of our government is changed, Nothing will happen.
      However I do hope that Theresa May loses her seat but unfortunately the people are fickle.

  6. Lifelogic
    December 8, 2023

    The £250k capital costs estimate is probably an underestimate too.

  7. agricola
    December 8, 2023

    Excellent though all your suggestions might be, there is no clarity arising from anything government is doing. In fact every time they express a particular view it leads to more dissention and resignations. Now the sand in the timer is running out, and government credibility with the electorate is shot through.

    There is nothing to suggest that a dissenting civil service will cooperate prefering their own agenda, whatever that might be. Meanwhile the electorate is expected to pay. The electorate has reached a level of disbelief such that even good ideas will fall on fallow ground. The best you can look forward to is opposition to a Labour party with no ideas.

  8. Linda Brown
    December 8, 2023

    If France is sending illegals back to Italy why aren’t we sending the boats back to France? Simple question but I bet I won’t get an answer.

    1. Peter Gardner
      December 8, 2023

      Because it would require political will to defeat the objections and counter actions by France and the EU. As I write in my own comment, I suspect David Lord Cameron of Remain, tucked away in the Lords away from scrutiny and bathing in the warm glow of Ursula von Der Leyen’s enthusiastic approval, is secretly negotiating for the UK to take a quota of EU unlawful entrants.

    2. Berkshire Alan
      December 8, 2023

      +1

    3. Bingle
      December 8, 2023

      It is because both Countries are in the Schengen Area which we have never been.

      I suspect we could not have sent them back even when we were in the EU.

    4. Bloke
      December 8, 2023

      Someone entering the UK from France to seek asylum here is self-evidently making a false claim. France is not an unsafe country beyond being the risky source allowing illegal claimants to access our territorial waters.

      The Rwanda scheme is a needless complication. Problems are solved by prevention at source, not by adding convoluted muddles and expense.

    5. Mike Wilson
      December 8, 2023

      Because they don’t want to send anyone back. The door is wide open. The more the merrier. It’s how they get GDP up and keep the plates spinning.

    6. glen cullen
      December 8, 2023

      +1

  9. Peter Gardner
    December 8, 2023

    Keep a close eye on David Lord Cameron of Remain, tucked away in the Lords away from scrutiny and bathing in the warm glow of Ursula von Der Leyen’s enthusiastic approval. I suspect he is secretly negotiating for the UK to take a quota of EU unlawful entrants. That would appease those arguing for a legal safe route as a solution and would end the boat crossings because the migrants would be flown in at taxpayers’ expense instead of spending their own money on a boat passage. If Cameron is not negotiating an immigrant quota deal I’ll bet someone else in the Government is.

    1. paul cuthbertson
      December 8, 2023

      PG – YES Slime Ball Cameron is the globalist puppet, another dangerous individual

  10. MPC
    December 8, 2023

    Serious as this topic is, I’m surprised you haven’t yet commented on the vote in favour of the ZEV emissions mandate. It signals the irretrievable destruction by the conservatives of most of the car industry and the futures of hundreds of thousands of people in its supply chain. Other negative impacts will no doubt include the destruction of local rural economies with eventual closure of country house hotels and B&Bs through the overall future decline in the number of car owners. There will be unwillingness on the part of the (relatively low) level of EV owners to bother with the inconvenience of travel to, and spending, in rural areas. MPs have collectively shrugged their shoulders and said ‘who cares’.

    Reply I voted against and gave often set out the case against

  11. John McDonald
    December 8, 2023

    We all know what the Government needs to do. But they talk a lot but never do it. Just Political noise not action that will benefit the average citizen. They just spend money we have not got on things that have no resulting benefit to the UK.
    funding wars etc. This Government has no control to stop anything.
    But the answer of course is let’s spend more money on an enquiry.
    It just a big joke played on the electorate. Is any collection of MPs capable of running the Country to the benefit of the voter? Is it all too late and the UK is declining to the point where no one will want to come here in the first place?

  12. Sakara Gold
    December 8, 2023

    There are an estimated 2.5 million illegal immigrants here, who got in inside HGV vehicles or by overstaying their visas. They have been provided with false Home Office papers, passports, NI numbers, driving licences, NHS numbers and whatever other documentation they need by the huge criminal infrastructure which manages to operate here with complete immunity.

    These people do not benefit the country, only the criminals who brought them in and provided their false papers – and who demand payment for their “expenses”, blackmailing them to make the monthly payments – or get arrested. They represent a clear security threat.

    Never mind the boat people – who represent a highly visible but tiny drop in the ocean – James Cleverly, the new SoS Home Office, should be having difficult conversations with the Security Service and the Chief Constables over illegal immigration

  13. Mick
    December 8, 2023

    As I have argued before every migrant needs housing, healthcare, utility capacity, roadspace and other public services.
    And what the public are seeing is how the illegal and legal migrants are getting prioritised over us, your party as had 14 years to put the U.K. first and not foreigners so just pull your finger out and start doing the right thing and put the U.K. first or most of your party and a lot of the opposition will be looking for alternative employment next year

  14. Mickey Taking
    December 8, 2023

    Sunak has so far paid Rwanda £250m.
    Let that sink in for a moment.
    Not one illegal has been hosted there yet.
    Staggeringly idiotic.

    1. Timaction
      December 8, 2023

      More Home Secretary’s have been to Rwanda than illegal immigrants. Unfortunately they came back. It’s a red herring. Send them the same day back to France by boat or train. End of or tell France we’ll close the border on their exports.

      1. glen cullen
        December 8, 2023

        Excellent

    2. glen cullen
      December 8, 2023

      That amount could fix many councils budget deficit ….or at least a great many pot-holes ….or 250 youth clubs for a year

  15. Richard1
    December 8, 2023

    Talk by Conservative MPs of another leadership change is absurd. The best thing to do is to try to make Rishi Sunak’s plan work. If it doesn’t he can say at the election that we need some more drastic step, like pulling out of the ECHR. That will be a good dividing line with Labour. It might not even be necessary.

    1. Mark B
      December 8, 2023

      I take it that the ‘dead cat’ of a Little Usurper didn’t bounce ?

  16. Iain gill
    December 8, 2023

    It’s not just low paid jobs. It’s also high paid jobs, if they come in and do it cheaper than a Brit. All it does is displace that Brit into another job, and that Brit squeezes someone else into a lower paid job, and Brits get squeezed out of the jobs market completely.

  17. Everhopeful
    December 8, 2023

    Add all that to the alleged cost of reparations demanded of us by Barbados….£4.9 TRN + £££ Mystery Figure = ….Well…it = no jollies for us then!!!
    And there isn’t a cat’s chance in Hell that anyone will say “No”.
    ”Wir schaffen das”
    …..oh yes…good old us!

    1. glen cullen
      December 8, 2023

      As we can’t, in reality, claim against Italy for events circa 2,000 years ago, Barbados can’t claim against England for events circa 400 years ago ….we just freed it from the Spanish & Portuguese

  18. Old Albion
    December 8, 2023

    Sir JR, your Government has the power to reduce or end legal migration, but it hasn’t and it won’t. We need a strong centre right Gov. Not the blue/red uniparty who have failed on this issue for almost thirty years.

  19. Donna
    December 8, 2023

    Legal immigration wasn’t 750,000 at its peak, it was 1.2 MILLION…. in one year. In order to achieve the lower figure you quote they deduct the number they THINK left the country, but they have no confirmed number because they don’t count departures.

    Over the last two years they allowed almost 3 MILLION to enter the UK legally when the 2019 Manifesto clearly stated that the Government would CONTROL and REDUCE immigration from the then 250,000 net a year.
    This isn’t immigration – its invasion – and the vast majority of these people are adding nothing of any real value to the British people.

    Sunak’s response to this appalling betrayal is to announce that the Not-a-Conservative-Government will raise the bar so that numbers reduce by 300,000 a year – after a few months notice so they have plenty of time to import another few hundred thousand or so. Even IF his proposals work, that will still mean 900,000 entering the UK every year with an unknown, but presumably far lower number leaving.

    The Not-a-Conservative-Government, like Labour before it, has Capitalised profits on behalf of the Globalists/Big Business who want an endless supply of cheap foreign labour, and they’ve Socialised the costs.

    After 13 years of constant lies, there is no evidence whatsoever that the Not-a-Conservative-Party WANTS to control immigration – or will.

    1. Timaction
      December 8, 2023

      Also ask who’s leaving and who’s coming? That’s scary. Doctors, highly educated entrepreneur’s, business, high earners leaving. Goat herders, car washers, cleaners, minimum wage workers etc arriving with their extended family and going to an A&E/Doctors surgery immediately near you. Really good for the economy and the National debt. How many of the 5.6 million on benefits are born overseas and invited here by the Tory’s Sir John? I bet they’re OVER REPRESENTED, but that will be hidden from the plebs under the guise of Pc/woke nonsense.
      It was reported last week that 50% of all social housing in London is occupied by people who were not born here. That must be appreciated by the locals who’ve waited decades for accommodation.

      Imagine Tesco’s or any other private industry leaving critical policy decisions until the spring when it could be done today on immigration. That’s why the Tory’s are bankrupt and will go extinct at the next election.

    2. formula57
      December 8, 2023

      @ Donna “…but they have no confirmed number because they don’t count departures” – “they” must be the not-fit-for-purpose Home Office.

      Aside from returning migrants where are the people leaving for? Is there some happy place somewhere governed by people who do not behave as though they are the eneny within, that has fair taxation and decent services and proper law and order?

    3. glen cullen
      December 8, 2023

      Cumulatively even higher as, year on year, they never go home
      Why don’t we fine every university (£100,000) for every foreign student that doesn’t return to their home country on completion of course

  20. Roy Grainger
    December 8, 2023

    “Many people also think 650,000 a year is far too many”

    That’s the net figure. Last year the number of immigrants was 1.2million. The analysis you propose to calculate the cost of those 1.2million also needs to look at the 500,000 who left last year – were they of “higher value” than those who replaced them ? Any analysis should also break down arrivals by their point of origin, socio-economic group, and skill area – this will show that some immigrant groups are a net cost and some are a net benefit. The impact on housing availability is clear – 50% of social housing in London is occupied by foreign nationals.

  21. outsider
    December 8, 2023

    Dear Sir John,
    There is a huge difference betwen the short-run marginal cost of a single migrant (wages and if necessary social benefits) and the long-run marginal cost of a large increase in the population (more hospitals and doctors, more schools and teachers, more housing, more energy and water infrastructure, more police etc). The gain in output is linear.

  22. Hat man
    December 8, 2023

    How I wish you were right, Sir John, and the government did need to think about the cost of its high immigration policy. But of course it doesn’t need to. Any more than it needed to think about the cost of lockdowns. Just print more money or increase taxes is always the answer, it seems, with this lot in power.

    Anyone for Conservatism?

  23. Stephen Reay
    December 8, 2023

    It’s the iilegal migration that people want stopping ,legal migration is easy to stop.

    1. Timaction
      December 8, 2023

      Legal immigration is a choice the Tory’s made at 1.2 million a year!

    2. paul cuthbertson
      December 8, 2023

      stephen Reay – At this particular time we need to STOP all immigration, legal or illegal for a minimum of five years. At present the country and its infrastructure are overloaded and out of control.

  24. Narrow Shoulders
    December 8, 2023

    The tragedy is that you have to write an article like this showing that immigration isn’t free.

    The insidious Portas report saying that immigrants contribute more than they receive is taken as fact and trotted out every time anyone objects tot he cost of immigration.

    For every employed immigrant there is a Brit who was already here on benefits, the immigrant is likely to receiving a wage subsidised by tax credits which is a further cost.

    So each immigrant has to carry the cost of two families. Their own and the feckless Brit.

    Not a great model for those few people (including immigrants) who are net contributors, I wonder why we have such a great national debt?

  25. Javelin
    December 8, 2023

    I have been pointing out on this site for years.

    Average tax payment is £5500 per year.

    Average low skilled migrant will take out between one and four tax payers out the system.

    Government services become diluted. Taxes rise. Government borrowing increases. The economy becomes uncompetitive. Growth stalls. FX rates fall and Interest rates rises. A downward cycle moves the standard of living to a new low.

    It must be really bad now because the Government have looked on a Map and it says. YOU ARE HERE.

  26. Paula
    December 8, 2023

    The Government also needs to add to those migrant costs the cost of crimes that some of them commit – they are often the most serious of crimes, including murder.

    Broad Church Conservatism (aka a Tory party infiltrated by liberals) can’t possibly work and that’s why you can’t do anything and why you all need to go. You’re a danger to national security. General election in the New Year please.

  27. Bloke
    December 8, 2023

    Surely the government must know what immigrants cost or contribute. A single one of the thousands of civil servants could calculate that as well as doing several other jobs during the time they spend working at our expense.

    1. Mickey Taking
      December 8, 2023

      How do they all register for a NI number? If all had been recorded as residence town Dover, the numbers arriving illegally by boat would be useful ‘going forward’.
      Other immigrants, students/ dependents could have been recorded at a tiny place with the same monitoring available as above.

  28. Paula
    December 8, 2023

    It’s all very well foreign students paying for their university places (assuming they don’t bring needy relatives with them) but what of UK born students who can’t get on top courses ?

    A) Can we be sure they are not being excluded because the University can’t charge top dollar ?

    B) How can it be that my son graduated with a top degree at a top university in his chosen subject but all the others declined to even interview him ? His is not an uncommon experience among his peers.

    Those universities are there primarily to educate British students but have lost sight of this.

  29. Ian B
    December 8, 2023

    Sir John
    ‘Wrong think, Group think’ who knows, but then again who in this Governments cares. Immigration both legitimate and criminal while extremely important also pan out as a useful distraction from the weak incompetence this Government has shown in everything else. It also could be seen as just another soundbite with a review in the offering.
    The UK was forced to suffer under Cameron, then we had the Europhile May, followed up with Camerons Uni buddy Johnson who lost his way after jumping into bed with eco zealots to stay on the dictated message. The removal of BoJo didn’t work because it enforced the retention of his collective responsibility cabinet, so we have the same ole, same ole.
    So, after 13 some years this miss-management has progressively worsened, the controlling of expenditure has been consigned to the bin. Now we have lost all control of energy security, therefore our economy, we have the highest tax take and borrowing in peace time, and the economy to pull us back has been trashed, the NHS what NHS?. Immigration while a very, very big sign of a government losing control is but a costly side show, just deflection and soundbites with no commitment to change and become a sound sovereign democracy.
    Yesterday we had ‘your’ Party Chairman basically shrugging his shoulders and trying to defend the indefensible. Changing the Leadership and this Government before an election wasn’t on, the preference was for the people at the ‘ballot box’ to do the changing. Or in other words ‘I give up’, the GE will be about confirming continued stupidity or a change of scene for different stupidity. The real strategy would be clear the decks get real Conservative running the show and have a GE to confirm support. Logic, with real Conservative at the helm even unproven ones all the alternatives could then only be worse, and as they also get to demonstrate daily.

  30. Ian B
    December 8, 2023

    In today’s Media, yet again
    ‘Ousting Sunak would be ‘insanity’, Tories told, as Rwanda Commons defeat looms Conservative chairman says divided parties do not win elections amid vow from PM to battle on with Bill ‘

    If divided parties don’t win elections, why is he ensuring division by shoring up the people that are doing the dividing. The Country didn’t vote this incompetent shower into power, the Conservative Party never voted this weak Leader. The Chairman wants an election not about a Conservative Party, good Conservative MP’s and Conservativism, but the support of the weak and incompetent against other numpties elsewhere. That seem a greater risk one that has ensuring failure written large all over it.

  31. Ian B
    December 8, 2023
  32. a-tracy
    December 8, 2023

    John, how do you respond when people say the government has blown £290m on failed Rwanda schemes so far?

    You could have renewed a whole deserted island’s homes and put temporary homes on a UK site for that amount.

  33. Rod Evans
    December 8, 2023

    I would love to see the research you are using to say Biden despatched 1 million migrants from the Mexican border John?
    Perhaps you were referring to the bussing of the illegal migrants (many of whom are drug gang slaves) to cities all across the USA.

  34. Sakara Gold
    December 8, 2023

    Horrifically, it emerged today that the government has paid the Rwanda regime the sum of £240 MILLION pounds to secure the “treaty” signed last week.

    This sum would have comfortably paid for the compensation payments to the unfortunates involved in the contaminated blood scandal, or a decent pay rise for the junior doctors

    Sunak has always been profligate with other people’s money – taxpayers money. The whole Rwanda saga is another bloody shambles. We should just ship the bost people back to France, from whence they came – and then sack him

    1. Mark B
      December 8, 2023

      You cannot quite blame it all on the Little Usurper. Braverman has to shoulder much of the blame.

  35. Jaycee
    December 8, 2023

    A point well made.
    Surely we can introduce legislation that includes a £4000 per annum medical insurance fee on overseas students and their dependents.

  36. a-tracy
    December 8, 2023

    “Students pay more to the universities which makes sense for their costs. It does not necessarily work for the state if they bring dependants who qualify for free public services and subsidised housing”.

    How on earth do Foreign university students have an automatic right to subsidised housing for their families? British people don’t get that they have to take a loan from their home Country! Paid back at ridiculously high interest rates for 30 years. Foreign students should not have access to these loans and benefits at all.

  37. Christine
    December 8, 2023

    Meanwhile, the deputy PM is telling us to stock up with candles and torches ready for blackouts. This in a week when they blow up yet another power station. You couldn’t make up for the incompetence of this Government. They have to go before the damage done to our once beautiful country is irreversible.

    1. Diane
      December 8, 2023

      Candles & Country: Don’t worry Christine, we / you / I may be the lucky ones to be given the opportunity to host pylons on our patch with a reported monetary bung. The ones pushing all this will be the ones making sure their back yards are nowhere near & will come back from European jaunts in beautiful countryside in the vast green expanses of France and elsewhere with proclamations of what beauty has been encountered abroad whilst we & our tourists increasingly will have chance to plough along our stretches of roads, possibly slower than we’d like, with fewer grazing animals to behold & with views of more of those soulless red brick estates, solar panels & pylons. A ramble, sorry but it sickens me what & how all this is being done here.

    2. The Prangwizard
      December 8, 2023

      It has been done, we must admit it. Foreign religion holders and many others have taken control of the minds and the drivers in our society. We are told we must not speak out and resist foreign plans to get full control. Those who say we must be democratic are deluded and incredibly naive.

  38. glen cullen
    December 8, 2023

    ”In 2021/22 there were 679,970 overseas students studying at UK universities, 120,140 of whom were from the EU and 559,825 from elsewhere. This was another new record total and 24% of the total student population” HoCs Library
    We fund the universities ….we now fund foreign students in our society …well beyond the end date of thier course

    1. Christine
      December 8, 2023

      Before Brexit students from EU countries received free tuition fees at Scottish universities subsidised by the English taxpayer who had to pay full fees. You couldn’t make this up. Another benefit of Brexit providing more top university places for UK students. We just need to bring in a law to stop universities from giving priority to foreign students because they receive more money from them due to the fee cap not applying.

  39. Bert+Young
    December 8, 2023

    We should run our own country and not depend on outsiders . Allowing those with well above standard skills to add to the success of the country is one thing but there is absolutely no sense in having the hangers on . Strains on the size of our population are evident everywhere and allowing any marginal increase is shear madness . As it stands outside – so called – regulation bodies influence and control our lives ; this should never happen , it makes a mockery of our democracy .

  40. William
    December 8, 2023

    In todays technological world, why can’t Students all over the world pay for online tuition rather than descending on the U.K. It isn’t that students arrive on their own, they’re being allowed to bring family with them; why?
    This Government have proven themselves to be inadequate in all areas, especially in controlling the ego inflated Mandarins. Brexit was to take back control of our Borders, we can’t even control our Civil Servants! If Civil Servants don’t do what they are directed to do by Elected Government Officials then we have anarchy.
    Saying that, we have a lot to look forward to with a bunch of Starmer’s pathetic Unionists on the horizon.

    1. glen cullen
      December 8, 2023

      99% don’t come to study, they come for benefits, free health care and to work in the black economy ….you can’t do that online

      1. Mark B
        December 8, 2023

        +1

  41. Stred
    December 8, 2023

    https://miwi-institut.de/archives/2028

    This Dutch study estimated the cost per immigrant at up to 540,000 euros. The total costs to Holland are staggering.

  42. XY
    December 8, 2023

    “Needs to”.

    The plan is to look as if they’re doing something but being thwarted by courts, lefty lawyers and bleeding-hearted “useful idiots”.

    The reality is that they want to achieve nothing. The latest allows legal challenge and appeal because that will ensure that nothing happens prior to the next GE.

    On that basis, telling us the cost is exactly what they do NOT “need to” do. Which is precisely why they are not doing that.

    If they have the numbers, they’re keeping them under wraps to avoid public outcry.

  43. Diane
    December 8, 2023

    On seeing the DT’s article ‘ Rishi Sunak welcomes Mark Rutte to 10 Downing Street ‘ ( Wednesday this week ) I was prompted by the mention of The Calais Group to look for any recent info. On the UK.GOV site was the news story titled ‘ Calais Group agrees to further work to tackle illegal immigration ‘ Published 08 Dec 2022 and mentions the Joint Intelligence Cell which was stated to have dismantled 59 organised crime groups involved in illegal crossings since set up in July 2020. So if the UK is in 2023 still active within this group of the named EU member states then I question what closer cooperation & intentions to tackle ‘the gangs’ the opposition has in its sights and ‘plans’. It would be interesting to hear more about the actions & progress or lack of it, from our leaders.

  44. Peter Parsons
    December 8, 2023

    I see it is being reported that the husbands and wifes of UK citizens already here will be kicked out of the country if their UK spouse fails to meet the new, higher income requirements when their visa comes up for renewal.

    No other civilised country does this. Disgusting. Shameful.

    The Conservatives the party of the family? Clearly not unless you’re the “right sort of family”.

    1. formula57
      December 8, 2023

      @ Peter Parsons “…already here will be kicked out of the country…” – harsh though that seems recall deportations hardly ever happen so any spouse affected will just remain living here but without a valid visa.

    2. glen cullen
      December 8, 2023

      ‘’From April 2024, British citizens or people already settled in the UK will need to show they earn £38,700 before their overseas partner can live here with them – a sharp jump from the current threshold of £18,600. They also still need to show they are in a marriage or civil partnership when they apply for a family visa, intend to be within six months, or that they have been living together for at least two years.’’
      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67630258
      They will need to meet the average national salary in England …doesn’t sound so unfair

      1. Peter Parsons
        December 9, 2023

        £38,700 is above the current median salary, of just under £35,000 and it has been confirmed by Downing St that it will apply to renewals of visas for people already living here as well who came here legally under the old figures and have been working and paying tax. It could be that the immigrant is the higher earner of the 2. What if an immigrant husband is currently earning £100k and his wife has stopped working to bring up children. Under these new rules, he may get kicked out because of a family decision to have one partner at home with children. He may lose the right to keep working and paying all those taxes he is today. Disgraceful.

        Is it now government policy that only the richest can fall in love with and marry who they choose? That seems to be the case.

        1. A-tracy
          December 9, 2023

          I thought it was per household Peter?

          Do you rally about Spanish rules and other countries rules?

          1. Peter Parsons
            December 11, 2023

            It is not per household, no. Only the income of the UK citizen is considered in the decision.

            I voice an objection to any decision I consider unfair and unreasonable. This is one such decision.

  45. XY
    December 8, 2023

    https://order-order.com/2023/12/08/obr-chief-blames-sunak-and-hunt-for-wrong-forecasting/

    Interesting defence of the OBR’s forecasting errors by the head of the organisation – blaming government.

    Does he have a point? It would be interesting to hear our host’s take on this.

    Reply The attached does not explain how the politicians misled by £20-30bn. OBR has been more than that amount out in recent years

  46. formula57
    December 8, 2023

    Whilst the Government has its calculator out, perhaps it could also tell us the cost of subsidizing Scotland?

    Together the foreign aid expenditure, the Scottish subsidy and the costs of new arrivals means England spends a uniquely huge proportion of its income on others, all the while with an ever-worsening performance from public sector services.

  47. beresford
    December 8, 2023

    GB News has been running an exposee revealing that off the radar illegal immigration via lorries is still in full flow, mainly young African males who can’t afford a dinghy place. The real population of this country must be well in excess of official figures.

    1. glen cullen
      December 8, 2023

      I believe the reports of GB News over Sunak and this government

  48. Javelin
    December 8, 2023

    An additional cost was seen when the heads of 4 Ivy League Universities were interviewed in Congress on X (Twitter). 3 refused to say whether slogans that called for the destruction of Israel amounted to harassment.

    They were obviously briefed by lawyers not to say it was harassment because that would lead to many students being expelled which would cost them a lot of money and jobs.

    So basically in order to ensure profits at Universities the next generation of leaders in the US are not being stopped from adopted the extreme values that lead to WW2 and the post war ethics.

    Who said history won’t repeat itself. And that is a huge cost beyond any monetary value.

  49. Ralph Corderoy
    December 8, 2023

    These are common understandings but perhaps they are incorrect:
    An asylum seeker can be returned to the first safe country they encountered when fleeing.
    Or is it that they can be returned to the safe country they left to travel here.

    Given that:
    Do any lawyers challenge that a rigid inflatable landing in Kent departed from France.
    How is an asylum seeker returned to the safe country of France.
    Have we ever returned asylum seekers in this way.

    Why isn’t it a revolving door? A dingy lands in Kent. Few aboard can claim asylum from France. They’re put aboard a ship and taken back to Calais.

    Illegal immigrants who are economic migrants and falsely claim asylum steal resources from those few general asylum seekers we should consider helping. They also taint public opinion against all incomers.

    1. glen cullen
      December 8, 2023

      By definition, and all that is true and right, no immigrant crossing the channel from the safety of France can, in all honesty claim to be a refugee fleeing war zone or claiming sanctuary & asylum from the persecution of the French people and its government …no they are ILLEGAL ECONOMIC CRIMINALS

  50. Peter Parsons
    December 8, 2023

    £250,000 for a migrant who comes here. £2.9 million (at current prices) for one sent to Rwanda (if it ever happens).

    Keeping migrants on a barge in Dorset at a cost per person much higher than it would have been to just put them on a luxury cruise liner.

    I thought Conservatives claimed to be careful with our money. Clearly not.

    1. paul cuthbertson
      December 8, 2023

      PP – Rwanda is a smoke screen and always has been. Why would Rwanda want riff raff?

      1. glen cullen
        December 8, 2023

        Correct, a £240 million smoke screen

      2. Peter Parsons
        December 9, 2023

        A large enough cheque (of our money)?

    2. Martin in Bristol
      December 9, 2023

      Where would you kerp them Peter?
      Got any spare rooms ?
      Come on, do your bit.

      1. Peter Parsons
        December 9, 2023

        The first thing I would do is fix the processing process which has got way slower under this government.

  51. Mike Wilson
    December 8, 2023

    Sunak has an immigration policy. His Home Secretary had to be sacked and his Immigration Minister resigned. They don’t seem to be convinced.

  52. Peter Humphreys
    December 8, 2023

    Why do students have dependents? They are 19 when they start their course so are unlikely to be married or have kids. They won’t have a full time job so can’t support anyone. To say they have dependents is spurious.

  53. Derek
    December 8, 2023

    Certainly when it comes to immigration, successive Governments have buried their thick heads in the sands of Whitehall and Westminster and aparently allowed the civil service to run the programme. A programme that may have worked in the 50s but is clearly long past its sell-by date. Why can they not comprehend that we cannot save the world, nor feed the world nor medically treat the world and in no way can we house the world either.
    Why do they not consult the data re population densities to gain a simple insight to the problems the citizens and their offspring will have to face because of the antiquated intransigence of those unelected people who run these programmes? Strong leadership will enforce a modernisation of ALL Government departments. If only we had it.

    1. Mickey Taking
      December 8, 2023

      Governments from Westminster seem to be stepping back in time to ‘Rule Britannia’.
      Gone are the days when GB was important in the world, we led politics, industry, technologies, seafaring, munitions, mining, transport, engineering, higher education, legal and moral judgement.
      Throwing scarce tax around in all manner of wasteful and undeserving reasons is bringing the economy to its knees.
      And it doesn’t seem by accident.

  54. glen cullen
    December 8, 2023

    If parliament says that men are women…they are
    If parliament says that Rwanda is safe …it is
    If parliament says that the science behind climate change is settled …then it is
    If parliament says that illegal foreign economic criminals are refugees …they are
    If parliament says that the common winter flu is covid …then it is
    If parliament says that net-zero will reduce energy bills ….then it will
    If parliament says that EVs are better than ICE vehicles …then they are
    If parliament say that immigration brings a beautiful diversity to our communities …then they will
    If our government says the Rwanda flights will start sometime in spring 2024 …they might

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