I was a fairly lonely voice amongst MPs saying I wanted out of the EU single market as well as out of the EU. I did not want a so called free trade deal with the EU single market on the poor terms Mrs May negotiated . I would have been happy with World trade Organisation most favoured nation terms which Ā we would have got Ā automatically without a deal .
I came to this conclusion from my experiences running a major international industrial Ā group of companies before entering Parliament, and from being the UK’s single market Minister in the run up to the laughingly named completion of the single market in 1992.
My business life taught me a UK major company was not welcome as an investor on the continent, where there remained many barriers to acquisition of an existing business and to greenfield activity. The Group I ran continued to find it easier to invest, sell product and make money in the USA, Australia, and Asian countries Ā than in France or Germany.
As single market Minister I saw how the so called single market project was a massive power grab.The EU proposed the takeover of regulatory and lawmaking powers in sector after sector. It grew single market competence to cover employment Ā policy, health and safety, environmental policy, transport and much else. It regulated Ā to gain control. It usually did so in a prescriptive way, laying down how products must be made to the recipes Ā of the existing dominant continental companies who influenced the drafting. It was anti innovation and dismissive of small business and the needs of the self employed.
The CEBR has just produced its latest forecasts for world GDP out to 2038. These show that the EU’s share of world GDP has slumped from 33.5% in 2008 to 23.6% today. They expect it to fall to just 19% by 2038. Ā This should be no surprise as EU growth in the last fifteen years has been very weak. The EU has watched as the US has built seven mighty tec global companies that dominate the digital revolution.The UK needs to break free from EU anti enterprise anti innovation rules and go for new ideas and faster growth.It is good news that the UK now does not have to follow the last three years of yet more EU rules stifling business and markets.The UK needs to speed its own revival with pro growth policies now it is free to do so. It should allow companies to innovate, not tying them down with rules on how to design and make things.
January 1, 2024
Good morning, and a Happy New Year to our kind host and everyone here.
Who cares about the EU ?
January 1, 2024
Mark, unfortunately a large number of MPs, civil servants and commentators still regard EU membership as utopia.
Sir J is spot on with the GDP statistics. EU members show lower growth than other counties – whether they are developed or developing. Have a play with the stats on this website:
https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/country/by-country/startyear/LTST/endyear/LTST/indicator/NY-GDP-PCAP-KD
January 1, 2024
As you say āunfortunately a large number of MPs, civil servants and commentators still regard EU membership as utopia.ā indeed and Starmer is certainly one of these and always has been. Sunak too has totally failed to move away from the EU model with its failure to deregulate.
In late April 2023, the Secretary of State for Business and Trade Kemi Badenoch announced that the government was to reduce the number of laws to be repealed by 31st December 2023 to around 800, as opposed to the government’s original target of around 4,000 laws. This Sunak reversal was rightly met with dismay by Brexit advocates, including the Bill’s original architect Jacob Rees-Mogg. In May 2023, the Bill suffered further reverses as the House of Lords rejected a number of aspects of the proposed legislation. On 29 June 2023, the castrated bill received royal assent.
January 1, 2024
Correct – the governments approach is undemocratic as it goes against the instruction & wishes of the people
January 1, 2024
They are dismantling democracy. Very dangerous. Rejected Sunak, Hunt and Cameron; the unelected EU; the Biden White House. They are desperate and have a scorched earth policy. Ironic really considering their āGreen credentialsā.
Iām leaning towards Germany being the first to explode. The Germs are very angry, they have every right to be.
January 2, 2024
Lynn,I too think that Germany could break up at some future stage-the east facing lande splitting from the west facing.The Goths from the Franks!
January 1, 2024
@PeteB – ‘a large number of MPs, civil servants and commentators still regard EU’ as their unelected unaccountable masters and will fight anything that asks them personaly to step up and ‘work’ for those they serve and pay them.
January 1, 2024
Happy New Year John. We will probably follow the same trajectory as the EU being one of a small band of countries following the ruinous path of net zero.
When history is written there will be astonishment at such stupidity inflicted on the population of the west.
January 1, 2024
History will be written by the nations which did not bother with Net Zero. The ones that tried will have ceased to exist as modern industrial economies.
January 1, 2024
Correct.
Certainly if they seriously go for it they will destroy their economies, the ability to defend themselves or even to feed themselves. Economic and environmental insanity.
January 1, 2024
LL ,
The aim is acceptable, but the method is insane. Understandable when you realise it is conceived and conducted by politicians. The same lot who gave us HS2. Having totally screwed up the infrastructure of the UK, boredom set in and new fields for failure had to be created. The coupe de gras is nett zero politician style.
Left to creative engineers and scientist we could eventually approach getting there, having been on the journey since the clean air act. The benefits are not insubtantial for population health alone. However not in the hands of most of the 650 incumbents of Westminster.
January 1, 2024
JohnK
Certainly that is the way it looks like it will go if those who persist with Net Zero carry on to eventual self destruction.
I do however believe that at some stage many of them will wake up to the reality of what self destruction they are causing with such policies and will change, but will it be in time ?
The UK used to have a huge manufacturing base which encompassed very heavy engineering, steel manufacture, Aluminium smelting, ceramics, shipbuilding etc etc. all of those power hungry industries have now already all but disappeared, along with many high volume producers and manufacturers of products which used to employ thousands of people.
Now it would seem we prefer to sell cups of coffee to each other, run charity shops or just hold endless meetings and talk about problems and solutions, without actually doing anything about them !
January 1, 2024
”Economic success will be determined” by the nations which did not bother with Net Zero
January 1, 2024
The EU may try to persist with Net Zero but individual countries like Germany won’t.
January 1, 2024
In that the EU remain a cancer within the body UK, I do. Until such time that they are chemoed, cut and irradiated.
January 1, 2024
Reply to Mark B .
January 1, 2024
ā The UK needs to break free from EU anti enterprise anti innovation rules and go for new ideas and faster growth.ā
We never really did break free from the EU.
May tried her best to tie us to it after she came to power.
Johnson was elected to deliver Brexit but pushed through BRINO instead. Then he concentrated on furthering his own personal ambitions while falsely claiming to have got Brexit done.
January 1, 2024
Happy new year to everybody!
Not me Mark, I go to great length’s to not spend money on any thing from Europe – especially krout and froggy goods.
Buy British was the shout in my youth and still think that is the right thing to do.
January 1, 2024
Spot on MFD. Let your wallet do the talking. Easy to avoid European wines, cheeses, meat and vehicles. Tougher on winter salad crops, but buy seasonally to solve that.
January 1, 2024
Totally agree with all that PeteB,
I live in rural area and buying at the farm gate is very cheap and good condition!
But after a few years the job gets easier, one learns what companies are pretending to be British but are continental!
January 1, 2024
MFD
Always attempt to do the same, but the second largest purchase most of us make after a house is a car, and not many practical makes and models are now made in the UK anymore, let alone be owned by Uk based Companies.
Hence for the last 25 years I have purchased either Japanese or German.
January 1, 2024
I do as well , certainly not German, but a Subaru twice in fifteen yesrs and never a pronblem
January 1, 2024
A woman on twitter called Liz Webster is obsessed with the EU and Brexit. Just her claims from today:
Heartbroken on Brexit impacting our food and culture, the food situation in the UK is getting worse and worse, apparently! Iām not seeing it myself in the North West but perhaps there are in Wiltshire?
The sense of loss for our culture and our own personal enjoyment of food, much worse than that – the levels of malnutrition in Britain are rising because people are not able to afford food, theyāre not eating, particularly children enough food.
A Country which canāt feed itself is a Country that can be held to ransom.
I wonāt even go into her Nostradamus predictions for 2024.
She is involved in food production, and claims Brexit has impacted on her business.
Iāve heard Labour are saying they want 50% of food used in the public sector to be grown in the UK, what % is it now? If Liz Webster thinks British farms are maxed out and canāt produce enough now how will they cope supplying the State or can they just start charging more when the State is buying rather than Aldi?
Where is this malnutrition claim of hers? London has free school meals, lots of lower socio-economic areas have low priced and often free school meals. Who has assessed the children, who has weighed them and done the requisite tests on UK children?
January 1, 2024
You were right as usual JR. WTO terms was/is indeed the right way to go. The Boris deal + Sunakās Windsor Accord selling out NI and further tying the whole of the UK in was appalling.
I listened to Sunakās New Year message the man is totally divorsed from reality, totallyvdeluded:-
āWeāve delivered record funding for the NHS and social careā well we is taxpayers and alas despite this record funding the NHS is delivering less output and junior doctors are not paid enough to live on in much of the country and repay their student loans.
Many UK schools are appalling lockdowns did appalling damage price is what you pay value what you get. Very poor value indeed.
His claims of tax cuts is false – taxes and Gov. debts are still rising
āWeāre going further to grow our economy by reducing debt, cutting taxes, and rewarding hard work, building secure supplies of energy here at home, backing British business and delivering world-class education.ā
You are actually doing the reverse, work often does not pay at all due to high and still increasing taxes. wage rates are undercut by open door immigration and the highest taxes for 70+ years. Many UK schools are appalling & lockdowns did appalling damage and no good. You are still pushing the total insanity of net zero intermittent, expensive and unreliable energy Sunak. Thus exporting jobs.
āInflation is set to fall further, cutting the cost of living for everyone.ā
So Sunak you think inflation at 4%+ cuts the cost of living do you? Perhaps you need to do some more maths?
āOur NHS staff who take care of all of us.ā – waiting lists highest ever and still increasing huge delays at A&E and ambulances. Doctors still on strike as many not paid enough to live on after student debs.
āweāre taking decisive action to stop the boatsā No you are not remotely doing this.
āto grow our economy by reducing debt, cutting taxes, and rewarding hard work, building secure supplies of energy here at home, backing British business and delivering world-class education.ā
Except, debt and taxes still rising, state education often very poor, Starmer to further tax private education shortly to kill fair competitiom even further. Sunak and Starmer still pushing the idiotic net zero religion.
āWe should look forward full of pride and optimism for what we can do together to build a brighter future for everyone. Thatās what Iām determined to do, and I wish you all a very happy 2024.ā
Alas we look forward to even worse Green Crap Socialism, ever higher taxes, more EU alignment and open door immigration from Starmer this after Boris and Sunak squandered their large majority
January 1, 2024
Starmerās New Year speech equally depressing and tedious, lots of promises with zero suggestions as to how he will deliver any of them.
His two promised tax increases – VAT on private school fees and abolition on Non Dom status will do huge net harm to the economy, education, investment and not even raise any net tax. More of the rich and hard working will leave, it will damage and even close many good schools.
Why should users of private schools pay four times over (taxes for otherās free schooling, tax on the extra money needed to pay the fees, then the fees, then 20% VAT on the fees? The same applies to the NHS and healthcare (with 12% insurance tax on medical cover). Both are blatantly unfair competition and rigged markets damaging education and healthcare. Not only that they will not even raise any net taxes as many will be pushed back onto the state education system. In the case on Non Doms many will leave or not come to the UK, or invest elsewhere or find other tax avoidance methods. The private education system in the UK was another reason people came to the UK and it does huge good for education and the economy. I myself went to s state grammar but so few of that are now left and the Tories have done nothing to enlarge this sector despite many promises.
January 1, 2024
Lifelogic.
+1
January 1, 2024
LL, +++++++. Excellent comment as usual. And, as usual, the good sense to take note and advice is nowhere to be found in Parliament.
January 1, 2024
I heard a bit of Sunak’s new year message as well. What does he mean reducing debt? That’s just a bare faced lie, and he proposes to continue being PM after this year?
January 1, 2024
He’s only the figurehead ….Cameron is still the PM, the EU & UN loving woke lefty
January 1, 2024
‘Squandered their large majority’ is an accusation made by numerous commentators on this website but it is not absolutely fair, especially as an accusation against Boris Johnson. Immediately after leaving the E.U. (instead of only half leaving as Theresa May had wanted and made a mess of ‘the negotiations’), Covid and then the war in Ukraine and its resultant fuel price crises hit us which nullified half the parliamentary term. In that context no British government whatever their majority would have changed much. So though I agree this government (especially Sunak) has failed to do anything much Conservative and quite often the reverse it is an exaggeration to claim they have ‘squandered their large majority’.
January 1, 2024
Fuel prices increased because of the ban on Russian gas and oil, led by dear old Boris.
Cause and effect, a business philosophy not understood by most politicians. Sir John being one of the exceptions.
January 1, 2024
Well Boris & Sunak Government got everything wrong on Covid too. The net harm lockdowns, furlough, covid loan fraud, new tech net harm āvaccinesā even for the young who were st almost zero risk anyway, the QE, the vast government waste, test and trace, the fast lane for PPE, the appalling choice of their group think āexpertsā, net zero is totally insane tooā¦
January 1, 2024
I second all that, Lifelogic.
As it used to be said āweāre doomed! Mr Mannering Weāre Dooooomed!
January 1, 2024
@LifeLogic – “You were right as usual JR. WTO terms was/is indeed the right way to go” that is all we asked our elected representative to produce. They thought it was to much like handwork, them creating a future as opposed to them taking orders from the higher foreign political masters – logic, are our elected legislators fit for purpose, if not lets get rid and replace them all
January 1, 2024
Your criticisms are absolutely valid. Sunak is a man of no vision or courage. He will lead the “Conservative Party” to defeat, and then we will all enjoy the zero charisma Blair Mk 2 regime, God help us!
January 1, 2024
An excellent Dr John Campbell interview just out with Prof Dalgleish on his superb book the Death of Science the Prof. seems to me to be exactly right on Covid, The death of Science, Net Zeroā¦ (Book is Free on Kindle unlimited).
Not to be missed in my view. Thesubversion of real science by governments, vested interests, big Pharma, many charities, āvaccinesā providers, the green grant farming āindustriesā is pure evil. Even the widespread dissing/banning of conventional treatments that worked fairly well killing hundreds of thousands in order to push the new tech āvaccineā furthers.
January 1, 2024
LL,
Sunak and his litany of lies will pedal fear of socialism in the run up to the next election because they realise that Reform are the only true Conservatives on the ballot paper. He conveniently overlooks the cigarette paper divide between himself, Starmer and the camellian libdems who will appear to be whatever they think the electorate want. The UK in a functioning infrastructure sense is broken and the present swathe of consocialists are responsible. The electorate would be ill advised to let any of them return to perpetuate the destruction.
January 1, 2024
LL and Agricola, +++++
January 1, 2024
Agreed.
January 1, 2024
Why isn’t Germany, France or indeed EU military forces attacking the slime firing ordinance at vessels in the Red Sea? Why is it always cocksure morons at the MOD who expose our forces to harm? It might give baby Shapp’s a thrill in his nether regions to declare ‘war’ on the hooooties in Yemen but for most of us we are tired of our lad being exposed to harm
Let the bastards at the EU put together a military collective to do their own military bidding
January 1, 2024
Is Mr Shapps still at Defence? If so, it is an unusually long tenure for him.
January 1, 2024
I get a shiver every time I hear the name Grant Shappsā¦.like Peter Mandelson
January 1, 2024
āļøāļøwell said Sir!
January 1, 2024
The EU single market is undoubtedly a protectionist concept. UK governments have stupidly and deliberately allowed its rule making to encroach on UK commercial activity and more even after we have left. We have allowed ownership and milking of our utilities even after our departure. The traiterous Mrs May and her gang of remainers have much to answer for. The current governments reluctance to cut the one way umbelical where child has fed mother from conception should be born in mind when we make electoral decisions in the near future. Neither Labour, Lib/Dems nor Conservatives are true leavers, all prepared to fudge their intended relationship with the EU whatever lies they tell the electorate. Those MPs like yourself SJR are in a bad marriage, best leave.
January 1, 2024
Agricola, I second that, my vote has morphed over the years from enthusiasm for Conservatism (it was the real thing and easily understood and recognised) to dismay and disaffection. It further morphed into a treacherous and thoroughly unreliable entity such that my vote has been cast such as to speed the demise of this wretched and now disgusting party.
January 2, 2024
and all within a decade
January 1, 2024
I’m beginning to think that the PM should deliver a ‘State of Brexit’ speech to the Commons, followed by a press conference, on the anniversary of our departure. He could use, as his framework, the ludicrous predictions of the ‘Doomsters’. It’s clear that there’s an organised movement to drag us back into the EU; worryingly, there’s a clear lack of an organised counter-force.
And the week before Starmer heads off to Davos, Sunak should make a Commons statement about the WEF – exposing the evil in its agenda, and making clear that he won’t be going along with it. This is an open goal for Sunak. Will he score or trip over his shoe-laces?
January 1, 2024
I’d much rather have that ‘State of Brexit’ delivered by Farage.
I doubt he would offer any bullshit like all the present MPs and commentators.
January 1, 2024
As a seafaring warrior you are doubtless aware of the ‘Shooter’ and the ‘Elvis in Vegas’ position adopted on US aircraft carriers i.e. within sight of the pilot the Shooter lowers his body by bending his left knee to an angle of up to 45 degrees, stretches his right leg as far as it will go and throws out his left arm to its full extent thus indicating that it is clear for take-off.
Agreed that ‘Shooter Sunak’ should deliver a āState of Brexitā speech, but also to the nation, and at the end adopt the Shooter’s actions with the usual US military exhortation of “let’s go”.
Happy New Year.
January 2, 2024
Indeed I am. I’m fortunate enough to have spent some time on a USN aircraft carrier’s deck and to have been catapulted (in a plane). A flight-deck is the place to see America at its best and Congress the place to see America at its worst.
January 1, 2024
Hear, hear! Spot on Sir John.
January 1, 2024
āThe Government has no plans to ban the sale of fireworks to the public but continues to monitor the situation. We believe the majority of individuals use fireworks safely and appropriately.ā
( No wonder the gov. believes in greencr*pā¦and ignores the polluting nature of fireworks!)ā¦
Yet it bans just about everything else with alacrity.
We will be left with no meat, no fags, no cars but plenty of dangerous explosive devices.
Oh wellā¦maybe that makes sense in this crazy, Tory-crafted Hell?
Some sort of lucrative trade deal?
A ācanāt say noā trade deal?
And last nightā¦Category 4 from about 5.30 onwards.
Nightmare country!
January 1, 2024
Ban fireworks? what! and upset all those religious festivals ?
A clear vote loser in some constituencies.
January 1, 2024
This government only believes in the greencr*p when its advantageous to them ā¦eg. increase taxes, inventing new levies, regulating more public control
January 2, 2024
Our PM is tee-total. If a Conservative revival looks like happening – a big if – I’d suggest stocking-up on booze.
January 1, 2024
We’d be in better shape to grow without our enormous tax burden. You can’t start or grow a businesses out of thin air. The US has people with big $ spare capital and space to invest. It has the markets. The EU has the big corporates which move their businesses around the globe like chess pieces. We have neither, neither do we have the spare capital as it’s all sucked into state coffers. Look what’s on the horizon whoever gets into power this year-Reform excepted- MORE of the same.
January 1, 2024
The US also has a much more permissive legal approach to bankruptcy. People can more easily try a business and recover if it doesn’t work out.
In the UK, only the young could contemplate it since older people with accumulated asset value can’t afford the risk.
January 1, 2024
As a child, like many others, I enjoyed giving Christmas presents as well as receiving them. Producing this blog day after day must be a considerable effort for you, however it provides me with a unique window into many important topics.
Your effort is much appreciated and I hope that it brings you satisfaction, as it certainly should.
All the best for 2024
January 1, 2024
hear hear
January 1, 2024
You say the UK needs to break free of anti enterprise and anti innovation policies, well what about employer’s NI? Why are businesses charged for employing people, to the detriment of their global competitiveness?
If the government is looking to reduce tax, well the first thing they need to do is to cut spending. After that, remove employer’s NI completely and stop stifling UK business in favour of imports.
On the anti-business front, please remove vicarious liability from the Equality Act. Make the offenders responsible for their behaviour, not the business that has to struggle with society’s ills as well.
January 1, 2024
Dave:
I agree. Income tax, employees’ NI and employers’ NI should be combined, and then tax payers would see just how much is taken from them every month. They would be shocked. Most people are paying 40% tax without realising it.
January 1, 2024
I’d go further and scrap council tax and include it in income tax
January 1, 2024
For more than 40 years I stuck to employing only one employee because of the NI burden and complexity.
There were very many self employed people who adopted such a policy of minimal staff expansion or even zero others, citing NI and/or employment legislation.
Itās like increasing taxes in the deluded idea that it will increase revenue, itās all so obvious to all but professional politicians.
January 1, 2024
Spot on Dave. Employer’s NI is a blight on our economy – apart from the obvious impact, it also makes it cheaper by 14% to employ someone who is not based in the UK. Offshoring is encouraged by such taxes.
January 1, 2024
Growth as an industrial economy is over in the UK. All the time we have a massive public sector, lunatic green policies and an authoritarian Big Brother ruling class we will continue our decline. In fact the incoming gaggle of corrupt half wits from the next election will make it unlikely we have electricity or even food in the shops.
January 1, 2024
Des,
You are right. They seem to assume that a modern society just exists, and they can tinker with it as much as they like without harm. They are very wrong, and we will see this as the perverse effects of the Net Zero fantasy begin to bite in the next few years. Sunak seems to think he is doing us a big favour by letting us keep petrol cars and gas boilers for another few years. Thanks for nothing!
January 1, 2024
āThe UK needs to break free from EU anti enterprise anti innovation rules and go for new ideas and faster growth.It is good news that the UK now does not have to follow the last three years of yet more EU rules stifling business and markets.ā
Both the UK and the EU have signed up to net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 so reducing growth and consumption is locked in by law and overrides all other considerations whether that be the general well-being of their populations or even their freedom and security.
January 1, 2024
Nothing is locked in by law Richard, all can be repealed and that is what is needed with the climate scam!
We must start and put Britain first !
January 1, 2024
”britain first” – if only that was the motto of the tory party
January 1, 2024
MFD, a lifeline for the country, even if thereās no hope for the hopeless conservatives.
January 1, 2024
This from an advisor on Truss economics indeed- you seem to have the EU on the brain
you forget we messed up and are now on our own with little say in shaping world happenings but that is how we voted that is how we were advised by our betters – so as far as the EU goes I have no doubt they will reform regroup size up or size down to suit themselves they won’t be asking our advice on anything same with the US and the rest of the world –
Reply I was not a Truss adviser. This website sets out the advice I give. Why so negative about our country?
January 1, 2024
Typical of the lefties Sir John, they twist the truth or totally make up lies!
January 1, 2024
On our own as a member of NATO, CPTPP, UN Security Council. Sure, no influence at all.
January 1, 2024
For growth in living standards we surely know exactly what is needed:- a far smaller state, far lower taxes, cheap reliable energy, ditch net zero, fair competition between private and state in healthcare, transport, schools & education, easy hire and fire, high skilled immigration onlyā¦ hardly rocket science but the complete reverse of the Sunak/Starmer agenda.
Interestingly when I was in my early 20s about 40 (odd years back) I had a graduate engineering job that paid me circa Ā£8k PA and this was up North. Adjusting for inflation this would be Ā£56k PA. My relative a first year Junior Doctor in Central London now mid 20s is now paid just Ā£34k including the London allowance and has student debt of circa Ā£100k plus interest 7k PAto repay too. Technology improvements should have made us richer and things more efficient. Alas government just got larger and larger and negated (or stole) all this.
January 1, 2024
Which university did your relative study at? How have you calculated his Ā£100k student loan?
All English (only) graduates have student loans resulting in a 9% grad tax. Iām more annoyed that only the English pay tuition fees in the nation it is discriminatory and not equal.
January 1, 2024
UCL & St Georges but you confuse interest on the student loan (at circa 7% of the debt for 6 years tuition) with the rate you have repay (9% over circa Ā£25k?)l The interest still accrues and still has to be paid. He will work 40+ hours a week for a year as a Doctor, living very frugally & yet end up poorer at the year end than he was at the beginning. This while living in a small room in a shared flat that he cannot even afford to heat very much.
January 1, 2024
Hopefully he will use this as a base for earning more in the future.
To put it as equation something like Present wages = (Should-be wages) minus (Cost of learning)
So long as he can justify the (Cost of learning x Years of learning) LT ((Future should-be wages) minus (Wages elsewhere)), he will and should continue with Plan A. If not, not.
I’m guessing he’s figured this out.
January 2, 2024
They only have to do six years if they donāt have the right qualifications to enter a medical degree and have to do a foundation year. https://www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/studying-medicine/becoming-a-doctor/medical-training-pathway
I thought year 5 and 6 were foundation year training that the NHS funded?
If you are undertaking an undergraduate medical or dental course as a second degree, provided you meet the residency criteria described in Section 2 and are in a bursary-eligible course year as set out above, you will still be able to apply for an NHS Bursary from your fifth year of study.
January 1, 2024
2024
Sir John, wishing you and yours, along with your diary contributors a wonderful and happy new year
Ian
January 1, 2024
If WTO terms are such a good deal, why do countries go to so much time and effort to improve on them by negotiating free trade deals?
As for divergence, divergence is such a wonderful thing that 12 pesticides classed as carcinogens that are banned in the UK are legal to use in the UK. Are you happy to be subjected to carcinogens?
Companies such as Stoke-on-Trent based Recticel are going to be forced to waste money (in their case Ā£400,000) to re-test perfectly good products to obtain compliance with the new UKCA standard that business doesn’t want because they know how costly its introduction will be to them and therefore to consumers.
Pint bottles of wine. Enough said.
January 1, 2024
Peter, what tests do Recticel pay for already? How much does that cost? Do they now need two sets of tests donāt the EU accept the UKCA test? Do other Countries around the world accept it. Kemi Badenhoc needs to investigate this.
January 1, 2024
They have already paid for CE tests for all their products and they can still sell to any country that recognises CE since the products will retain that.
All the re-testing is required because they are a UK-based company manufacturing products for the UK market and this government has chosen to no longer recognise CE from 2025 for the industry they are in and has insisted that products must be tested to UKCA in order to be sold, so the products all need to be re-tested at the company’s expense (and, ridiculously, to the exact same standards as apply to CE anyway).
I am not aware of any country that has chosen to recognise the UKCA. From my understanding of it, it only applies within the UK.
January 1, 2024
Ridiculously, it was the EU which started this ball rolling by not allowing UK companies to test here and sell in the EU to EU standards. So clearly it would have been a bit stupid for us to respond by allowing the the converse here. May caved on so much (why are EU citizens allowed a 180 day stay here but we only 90 days there??) that this one-way street had to stop somewhere. On the bright side Reticel’s European competitors will have more difficulty selling here. But the fault is 100% EU for this type of obstinacy and petty spite.
It was Merkel and the EU who sent Cameron and their big contributor away with a flea in his ear, not the reverse.
January 2, 2024
The EU has recognition agreements with Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Switzerland and the USA. If all those countries were capable of reaching an agreement on this, why couldn’t the UK do the same? Perhaps the inability to agree a deal on this was not just down to the EU 100% as you suggest. Negotiation is about give and take, something the “they need us more than we need them” Brexiteers never seemed to understand and UK business and UK consumers are now paying the cost of that.
The 90 day rule is one the UK helped write when we were members. It was then a decision of the UK government to decide that the UK would be treated like a third country and be subject to the very rule we helped create. 180 days is the standard length of a UK visitor visa. That hasn’t changed for years. The current situation is down to the UK government’s decision to go with the basic standard rule on both sides rather than negotiating something better for UK citizens. The difference is a self-inflicted one by the UK.
January 2, 2024
Interesting Peter, if the CE is internationally recognised Worldwide then I donāt understand why we simply donāt continue with that. A company should be able to decide if they want the new UKCA because they donāt export and donāt intend to, or the CE or did the EU exclude us from self-awarding CE certificates suddenly after we left after if so why if we meet EU inspection criteria?
Perhaps John could do a post about some of the ridiculous blockages our suppliers are suffering and why they werenāt negotiated into the deal, or invite Kemi on to here to write a post to explain it.
January 1, 2024
Key word: “improve” (on them).
WTO was good enough and any trade deal had to be an improvement. Nothing that was put forward was ever an improvement, including the one we ultimately signed.
January 1, 2024
Sometimes in an entrenched state of decline you need to ask yourself the āBiblical questionā. How bad will it have to get before people to fix the problems?
That is to say. What did our ancestors learn about the the boundaries of human civilisation. I suggest they understood that all societies have entropy built into them and there are inflexion points at the boundary. The fixes to these biblical problems are extremely painful and only happen when the symptoms are even more painful.
I suggest looking at the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. (1) Death, (2) famine, (3) war and (4) conquest.
January 1, 2024
šš¤£ sir John has delivered a State if Brexit speech. Nobody named could equal it. You see Sir John deals with policies. Thatās why the Irish MEP Clare Daly is so superior to Farage. She tackles the policies, he was just cheeky to people. All he wanted was coverage. She wants to put things right. So does Sir John.
January 2, 2024
The “Lenin Question”:”What is to be done”!
January 1, 2024
So how do we motivate businesses to grow more quickly?
How do we instil enthusiasm into business which has been battered?
January 1, 2024
We are saving the planet by rewilding and filling our agricultural land with windmills and solar arrays. Many stupid people including Tory minsters fall for this nonsense. The actual purpose of all this is to constrain food production with the ultimate objective of constraining population growth of Europeans by making their food very much more expensive. If the malefactors behind this scam have their way then we will not be able to import food either because there will be no surpluses to export from other countries which will have also either have eco-loons making their laws or the US State Dept turning their country into a war zone.
January 1, 2024
“Cheerleaders from Blair to Clegg told us joining the Euro was the road to riches”. Daniel Hannan has an excellent article on the Euro’s 25 year track record compared to the hype – whilst quietly the chief architect of Euro passes the bar and the EU unable to defend it economically despite billions moving heaven and earth and tearing up the original fiscal rules in the process.
We owe SJR a great debt arguing why we should never join it.
Instead we have the MSM joking about Liz Truss – who worked hard to get many Trade agreements around the world unlike her sofa surfing critics.
January 1, 2024
Had the government followed JRās advice on the ERM, net zero and many other issues it would have saved the country at least a Ā£Trillion. But in politics unlike business and investing being right is rarely rewarded. Go with the wrong headed Socialist green crap group think of people like Blair, Major, Sunak to get on it seems.
January 1, 2024
“It regulated to gain control. It usually did so in a prescriptive way, laying down how products must be made to the recipes of the existing dominant continental companies who influenced the drafting. It was anti innovation and dismissive of small business and the needs of the self employed”
Yes, quite right, BUT…
The same is happening in the UK system. The self-employed were hammered because the big companies (consultancies) lobbied heavily for IR35 and for continually tightening it when it didn’t hobble self-employed people as much as they hoped at each stage.
(para left out as a personal attack without evidence on a senior named MP)
Just look at the lockdown furlough payments to all the big companies when Sunak was playing Santa with taxpayer money. The date was cunningly made 19th March since many self-employed forced to work via Ltd Cos would not have put their annual RTI payments in yet and that made them ineligible (for no particularly good reason).
The self-employed got LOANS and they were not easy to qualify for.
Until this rotten system of lobbying, asking questions for cash, non-exec directorships etc is sorted out, we will be driven into that dystopian universe that films warned us of (and which seemed so ridiculous at the time) where our lives are controlled by one, or a few, mega corporations.
Reply Asking questions for cash is banned as is paid for lobbying.
January 1, 2024
To reply. In theory perhaps but in practice they just call it something else or they just have personal vested interests. What about the fast lane for PPE, Greensill all the mad net zero lunacy, the net harm vaccines, the climate change comittee, sip packs & energy performance certificates, the Gov. Moderna investmentā¦ was all this above board? Well perhaps.
January 1, 2024
The self-employed I know also got SEISS during covid, was designed to support self-employed individuals (including members of partnerships) …didnāt require paying back.
January 1, 2024
I was talking about those who are forced to work through Ltd Cos. SEISS was for the Schedule D people – and interestingly it was based on PROFITS and CAPPED at a ludicrously low level of around Ā£6-7k each time.
Many Sch D type self-employed businesses try to operate to minimise profits. For example a B&B owner tries to live on some of the food they buy to service guests’ needs, gets the buildings maintained etc. The tax system encourages them to maximise expenditure anmd minimise profits (and also to stop trading when they get near to Ā£85k turnover, the VAT threshold).
Everything is designed to keep the ants working away at the coal face, while the “entrepreneurs” or so-called “job creators” are lauded as gods and have ways to escape the tax net. And some other types…
IR35 is complex because they don’t want to catch footballers, lawyers, doctors etc in that tax net, those are fights they don’t dare to pick. The way it’s written allows them to choose who is caught – for example lorry drivers, delivery people, accountants, engineers and IT people who are “soft targets” (no-one has sympathy for them, people are happy for those types to pay more tax).
January 2, 2024
How do ājob creatorsā escape the tax net? Iāve never figured out how to escape the tax net, everything from PAYE inc employers NI, class 1A, SSP, SPL, SMP etc.
I donāt understand how footballers escape IR35 they work for one club predominantly? Same for a lot of tv presenters.
January 1, 2024
Reply to reply.
It’s banned but not policed. The only people unearthing such activities are investigative reporters.
Is lobbying “paid for” if an MP takes up a non-exec directorship? What if it’s taken after their stint in parliament? We could never know if it was promised earlier.
If, say, we had a rule whereby MPs could not work again after parliament then we would only see people who had no financial interest in being an MP, probably people who plan to give something to their country (and a few political nut jobs as well perhaps).
I’m not saying that’s workable, just that it may be the only way that works.
Reply What is your problem? MPs are not allowed to lobby for a business and have to declare their income
January 1, 2024
“The UK needs to speed its own revival with pro-growth policies now it is free to do so.”
The Civil Service will never allow this to happen because they are intent on keeping us aligned with the EU so that they can eventually force us back in. They certainly know that if Starmer is elected, this is ultimately what he will try and make us do.
It’s also why the Conservatives should have taken much firmer and faster measures to free us from the shackles of the Single Market. It’s probably too late to do much about it, now. Another potential victory for the Remainer establishment throughout the country, including so many of your detestable “One Nation” colleagues.
January 1, 2024
+1
January 1, 2024
JR: “These show that the EUās share of world GDP has slumped from 33.5% in 2008 to 23.6% today. ”
If these figures are accurate, then the cause is clear, THE primary economy in the Euro area, Germany, is being rapidly industrialized by the USA and the German Greens. The USA has substituted cheap Russian natural gas, the feedstock of the German prosperity, for US produced gas and oil at a 200% markup.
As Anthony Blinken said at the time of the NATO bombing of the Nordstream pipeline, it was a great economic opportunity for US gas and oil producers.
By the way, Blinken didn’t mention once, that the destruction of the Nordstream pipeline was the greatest ecological disaster*, releasing hundreds of cubic kilometers of Natural gas directly into the atmosphere.
* If you happen to be a Green.
January 1, 2024
Wishing you a happy new year. Your diary is appreciated and we all know how much work it must take. Thank you.
January 1, 2024
hear hear
January 1, 2024
the hypothesis from Sir John that the single market is a barrier for EU members in terms of growth does not stand closer testing as the EU members have more growth in their trade with growth markets than the UK.
German trade with China is a good example. But this sort of criticism of the EU is unfortunately nothing new.
Reply.Not true overall.We had more growth with non EU than with EU both in and out of single market. Why do you never criticise any feature of EU policy and never praise anything the UK does?
January 1, 2024
Prior to the issue of whether we should join the EU the alternative was the Atlantic Alliance ; in my book it was much the better choice ; we were foolish not to proceed . If we could get rid of the stumbling Biden the Alliance could still work .
After a very late night watching the fireworks I wish all Bloggers ” A Happy and Prosperous New Year ” and an extra to Sir John ” Keep up your good work “.
January 1, 2024
You may have been a lone voice in the commons and within your own parliamentary party, but the mayority of the party membership and the public suported your views towards UN WTO ….they were all ignored
January 2, 2024
Glen,
This is because an WTO solution for the UK instead of a Brexit deal as we now have would have been an even worse disaster than the current Brexit deal. With very high customs charges between the UK and the EU on things like cars and agricultural products
January 1, 2024
When will the Tory Party return to our fishermen our fishing grounds which extends to the limit of our Exclusive Economic Zone? EU trawlers are still pillaging our fishing grounds and loading their catches onto lorries destined for the EU. When will the Tories stop barring our fishermen from their fishing grounds with Marine Protected Areas (Wildlife parks for fishes? When will the Tory Party stop filling our fishing grounds with windmills in order to save the planet? When will the Tory Party kick out the anti-fishing and anti-farming gang that has infiltrated the Dept of the Environment?
January 1, 2024
Having lived and worked in five EU countries (including years before the EU came into existence) and having since then sold services to them, I have built up a detailed knowledge of the clandestine but very real national protectionism they operate, under the cloak of the ‘single market’.
Leaving the EU was irrelevant – while we were in it, they did not allow British agents or traders to sell into certain of their markets, either operating forbiddingly complicated forms geared to their own national ID and tax laws, and so impossible for a foreigner to complete without expensive ‘guidance’, or else targeting their own products or services for national subsidy (both cases strictly illegal, but the EU turned both blind eyes).
In some cases, jobs or tenders were simply not publicised, so they could be given to their destined individual or firm. Young people might for example be trained with the express understanding they would be exclusively, uncompetitively offered the job X or directorship Y. Yes, of course this kind of thing goes on all over the world, but not with the pretence of having a ‘single market’.
January 1, 2024
mancunius, this never seems to be discussed at all. The Italians are very protectionist/
The UK gave away its milk industry to plastic bottled imported milk that has created its own recycling problem for us.
We gave up on manufacturing vans yet are a big user of lgvs. We gave away so much industry it is amazing we are still the 8th biggest manufacturer in the World.
January 1, 2024
This is an often stated objection to the EUās Single Market. Is it true? Could you provide an example where a large corporation(s) has influenced regulations so that their product must be made in a way they prescribe – to the detriment of smaller producers.
January 1, 2024
Dyson experience is legendary in this respect.
January 1, 2024
I saw an ONS chart about the UK joining the Single Market showing the Balance of Trade from 1980 to 2014. Three years after the single market started around 1998 or went consistently negative.
January 1, 2024
It’s nice to see our host make reference to America’s “Magnificent Seven” tech firms in his post today. The presence of just one of those on the London Stock Exchange would make the British economy seem much healthier and more relevant than it is today. Many people in the City are curious about why the country has failed to produce even one global technology company to match those seven. Sage is perhaps our closest comparator now that ARM is gone. I would welcome a post from our host setting out his thinking about the reasons why founders of new British technology companies (and the early investors who back them) usually choose to sell ownership to foreigners before they have fully-grown to global scale.
January 1, 2024
Happy New Year to all.
Regarding the previous thread about saving taxpayers’ money, I would propose ending vehicle excise duty and making up the shortfall via fuel duty, which is far fairer. The MOT would become the permission to drive. This would cancel out a whole department.
I would try to avoid unemployment by prevailing upon publicly-owned banks and other publicly-owned companies to onshore their call centres and various other functions, which currently operate from India, often in an extremely inefficient way (personal experience from banking), and retrain the VED administrators to do that instead.
January 1, 2024
Mass immigration will cause Schengen to fail which is the end of federalism.
Happy New Year.
January 1, 2024
In other news not reported on the BBC or Sky
”Cargo ship carrying burning lithium-ion batteries reaches Alaska, but kept offshore for safety
December 31, 2023”
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2023/12/31/cargo-ship-carrying-burning-lithium-ion-batteries-reaches-alaska-but-kept-offshore-for-safety/
January 1, 2024
Well articulated.
Beyond the Brexit supporting MPs, I just wish other MPs would deal in realities and be on side with the UK, take positive action and stop being so declinist. The main parties select such poor candidates – we feel parliament no longer represents our interests.
January 2, 2024
Interesting figures from the CEBR. I have a chart based on JP Morgan Chase analysis from about 6 years ago which shows how moribund and uncompetitive Europe had become over the period from just before we joined the Common Market and we voted to leave the EU.
Not directly comparable as it depends how CEBR defined GDP. JP Morgan Chase charted the Share of Global Real GDP in PPP for different economic blocks ~ I summarise the approximate 1970 and 2016 start and end points:
Ā
Eurozone 26% >> 17%
USA 25% >> 22%;
Japan 10% >> 8%;
Germany 8% >> 5%;
China 1% >> 13%;Ā
India 1% >> 3%
Ā
JPM may have an up-to-date chart available somewhere on the web.Ā Please post a link if you find it.
JPM analysis complements CEBRās reinforcing how sclerotic the EU has become.